Rdos12t3 Pres
Rdos12t3 Pres
Rdos12t3 Pres
Disclaimer
This document contains statements that constitute forward looking statements about Telefnica Group (going forward, the Company or Telefnica) including financial projections and estimates and their underlying assumptions, statements regarding plans, objectives and expectations which may refer, among others, to the intent, belief or current prospects of the customer base, estimates regarding, among others, future growth in the different business lines and the global business, market share, financial results and other aspects of the activity and situation relating to the Company. The forward-looking statements in this document can be identified, in some instances, by the use of words such as "expects", "anticipates", "intends", "believes", and similar language or the negative thereof or by forward-looking nature of discussions of strategy, plans or intentions. Such forward-looking statements, by their nature, are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties, and other important factors that could cause actual developments or results to differ from those expressed in our forward looking statements. These risks and uncertainties include those discussed or identified in fuller disclosure documents filed by Telefnica with the relevant Securities Markets Regulators, and in particular, with the Spanish Market Regulator. Analysts and investors, and any other person or entity that may need to take decisions, or prepare or release opinions about the securities issued by the Company, are cautioned not to place undue reliance on those forward looking statements, which speak only as of the date of this presentation. Except as required by applicable law, Telefnica undertakes no obligation to release publicly the results of any revisions to these forward looking statements which may be made to reflect events and circumstances after the date of this presentation, including, without limitation, changes in Telefnicas business or acquisition strategy or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events. This document may contain summarized information or information that has not been audited. In this sense, this information is subject to, and must be read in conjunction with, all other publicly available information, including if it is necessary, any fuller disclosure document published by Telefnica. Finally, it is stated that neither this presentation nor any of the information contained herein constitutes an offer of purchase, sale or exchange, nor a request for an offer of purchase, sale or exchange of securities, or any advice or recommendation with respect to such securities.
Investor Relations Telefnica, S.A.
TELEFNICA
OIBDA growth and margin expansion q-o-q Outstanding improvement in underlying EPS
Significant savings from transformational initiatives to enhance business model already flowing into P&L
Continued growth in key revenue levers: Latin America and mobile data
Over 2.3 bn debt reduction in Q3 (-4% q-o-q) on the back of strong FCF generation and disposals Further leverage reduction in Q4 close to 3.2 bn on fast execution of assets divestments and preferred share swap for treasury shares Proactive refinancing of over 13 bn YTD enlarges liquidity cushion to 18 bn TEF Deutschland largest IPO in Europe YTD
TELEFNICA
Underlying
Q3 12
y-o-y
9M 12
46,519 15,782 33.9% 8,009 3,455 0.77 10,122 12.2%
9M 12
y-o-y
9M 12
46,519 15,879 34.1% 8,835 4,414
9M 12
y-o-y
Q3 12
y-o-y
Revenues OIBDA OIBDA Margin OI Net income EPS OpCF (OIBDA-CapEx ex-spectrum) CapEx (ex-spectrum)/sales Exceptional items
OIBDA OI Net Income
Capital loss on sale of stake in CU Reduction of value of TI investment
(0.3%) 10.7% 3.4 p.p. 19.6% 26.4% 28.9% 16.1% +0.3 p.p.
(0.3%)
(1.6%) (3.0%) (0.5 p.p.) (7.8%) (2.0%) 0.5% (1.8%) -0.5 p.p.
(5.1%)
(1.7 p.p.) (11.9%) (17.4%) (15.8%)
n.s.
c.s. c.s. n.s. -0.5 p.p.
0.98
10,219 12.2%
(8.8%)
+0.3 p.p.
9M 12
(97) (826) (959)
9M 11
(2,489) (3,332) (2,609)
Workforce reduction plan in Spain & sale of stake in PT
Q3 12
(97) (334) (216)
Q3 11
(2,671) (2,951) (2,058)
Workforce reduction plan in Spain
Underlying growth: Reported figures excluding major exceptional items and spectrum acquisition. Q3 11: Workforce Reduction Plan in Spain (impact in OIBDA: -2,671 m and in net income: -1870 m).
TELEFNICA
T.EUROPE
2,513 TELEFONICA
2,672
2,765 37.2%
35.5%
33.3%
5,350 5,448 Q1 34.6% 32.8% T.LATAM 35.1% Q2 Q3
5,081
Q1
(2.8 p.p.)
Q2
(1.9 p.p.)
Q3
(0.5 p.p.)
2,549
2,663
2,694
35.8%
33.9%
35.4%
Q1
Q2
Q3
TELEFNICA
0.36
0.34
0.29 0.5%
Q1
Q2
Q3
(20.3%) (25.7%)
y-o-y
TELEFNICA
Revenue
Brazil 22% Brazil 23%
OIBDA
Spain 24%
Spain 32%
OpCF
Brazil 23%
Spain 39%
OIBDA and OpCF are underlying. OpCF: OIBDA-CapEx ex-spectrum. Differences up to and over 100% are due to Others & Eliminations.
TELEFNICA
1.1% consolidated revenue (y-o-y growth in 9M 12) ex-regulation Revenue growth acceleration in Latam in organic terms ex-regulation to 8.2% in Q3 12 y-o-y (+6.7% in Q2) European revenues continue to be impacted by challenging economic conditions, intense competition and regulatory drag
Telefnica 5% 314 m
8% 210 m
3,055
3,120 17%
Fast growth of non-SMS data sales in Q3 (+22.0% y-o-y) Smartphone net adds up 14% y-o-y in 9M 12 to 10.0 m 40% y-o-y growth in MBB base to 48 m
2,824
Q3 12 59%
Focus on pricing consistent with data monetisation (tiered pricing, integrated tariffs)
TELEFNICA
35.1%
(1.0%)(1)
Q3 11
Commercial Costs
Others
Q3 12
Q1 12
Q2 12
Q3 12
Key transformational efficiency initiatives and scale benefits through T. Global resources already driving savings: lower subsidies, managing commissions, optimising advertising costs, overheads, outsourcing Commercial costs down 0.2% y-o-y in Q3 (+2.4% y-o-y in Q2) on easier comps, handset subsidies removal in Spain and lower upgrades in T. Europe Double digit decline in interconnection costs driven by MTRs cuts
(1)
TELEFNICA
Already 2 rounds of global negotiations setting the basis for a global approach Global Devices Increasing to 80% of the value negotiated globally More balanced OS map and market relevance As a consequence, reduced number of references (95% value in <100 references) Network sharing deals on track (UK, Mexico) Network and Operations Global agreement for network management support systems Global standards defined for key categories (site build, support contracts, RAN)
Production consolidation into hubs under-way IT Brazil data centre completed and Alcala data centre finished by year-end Application simplification with good results in Latam and Spain in the last 9 months
10
T. LATAM
Q2 12
Q3 12
1.1m
163.4 178.5 54%
6.7%
8.2%
(4.6%)
(2.3%)
MSR Total
Fixed Q2 12 Q3 12
(45.3)
Mobile Contract Fixed FBB Pay TV
Mobile growth focused on high value customers Smartphone accesses x2 y-o-y Improved performance in fixed business
Brazil
Northern Region
Southern Region
Others
Q3 (y-o-y) T.Latam
5.0%
(1) Excluding the disconnection of 1,600k inactive prepay mobile accesses in Brazil in Q2 12.
18.1%
8.4%
Q3 y-o-y
11
T. LATAM
2,549
2,663
2,694 4.8%
33.9%
35.8%
35.4%
0.4 p.p.
2.1% 0.8% Q1 Q2 Q3
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q3 11
Commercial Costs
Other costs
Q3 12
12
T. LATAM
Fixed CSI
(Gap vs competitors avg.) 16%
7%
Increased gap in mobile CSI from selling ban to competitors VIVO rebranding fuelling fixed CSI turnaround Improved access performance across segments leveraging VIVO Favoritos
7%
Sep-11
Sep-12
(4%) Sep-11
Sep-12
Q3 12
Increased total mobile market share to 29.7% Strengthening position in the most valuable segments (36.9% contract share) Prepaid top ups growing at a faster pace than accesses
15%
17%
13% 10%
Total
Contract
Smartphones
Q3 11
x4
Q3 12
13
T. LATAM
(organic y-o-y)
13.3%
12.8%
3.2%
5.0% 2.1%
1.4%
0.5%
Q1
(6.6%) (9.7%)
Q2
Q3
Total
Fixed
Regulation dragging 2.7 p.p. of revenue growth Better revenue performance of both fixed and mobile businesses on a sequential basis (+3.1% vs. Q2 12 ex-regulation)
Accelerating OIBDA y-o-y growth despite higher negative impact from regulation OIBDA margin expansion y-o-y to 34.5% in Q3 12 Increased efficiency in personnel expenses and G&A leveraging integration
Organic growth: Local currency and excludes the positive impact of the partial sale of our stake in PT in Q2 11.
14
T. LATAM
Southern Region
33.3%
35.1%
33.0%
36.1%
40.6% 41.7%
Southern Region
Revenue ex-regulation (y-o-y organic)
9.2%
8.4%
COLOMBIA:
2.8%
Significant OIBDA and margin improvement driven by the integration process and efficiency measures Revenue performance negatively impacted by regulation and IT projects seasonality
PERU:
3.8%
Very strong commercial momentum across all businesses Acceleration in revenue and OIBDA in Q3
ARGENTINA: Sustained double digit revenue growth OIBDA margin in Q3 impacted by strong commercial momentum
5.9%
CHILE:
4.1%
Increased competition on number portability across businesses affecting revenue growth. OIBDA margin remains strong
Organic growth: assumes average constant exchange rates and excludes changes in the consolidation perimeter in both years.
15
T. LATAM
Northern Region
Revenue ex-regulation (y-o-y organic)
Mexico
4.3% 1.2% 12.5%
CA
17.2%
Venezuela
26.8% 30.3%
16.5%
18.1%
VENEZUELA:
5.0%
MEXICO:
Ongoing turnaround process to accelerate growth: ARPU acceleration drives inflection point in MSR Margin expansion y-o-y (+7 p.p.) on the back of higher commercial efficiency. Iusacell agreement effective from Q3
2.5%
1.1%
CENTRAL AMERICA: Sustained acceleration in revenue Progress on OIBDA margin driven by efficiency measures
Organic growth: assumes average constant exchange rates and excludes changes in the consolidation perimeter and hyperinflation accounting in Venezuela in both years.
16
T. EUROPE
2,672
(13.1%)
(221)
Q1 12 (1)
Upgrades (y-o-y)
Q2 12 4.7%
Q3 12 (11.8%)
Q1
Organic y-o-y change
Q2
Q3
15.7%
59%
56%
37.2% 35.5%
25%
33%
33.3%
(3.1 p.p.) (2.4 p.p.) (0.7 p.p.)
Contract /Mobile
Sep-11 Sep-12
Smartphone penetration
Q1
Organic y-o-y change
Q2
Q3
(1)
Commercial performance driven by refreshed propositions Low churn sustains growth in mobile Upgrades delayed to Q4 ahead of Fusion and new devices launch Higher customer satisfaction on enhanced quality
Strict cost cutting (-9.0% in Q3 y-o-y organic; -2.6% in H1) on efficiency gains across countries amid top line pressure (Q3: -9.0% y-o-y organic)
17
T. EUROPE
3 Efficiency actions
Redundancy program: 6,500 net reduction in headcount Improved quality of service y-o-y:
Limited commercial activity in Q3 ahead of Fusin launch 1.4% in mobile contract (-0.4 p.p.) 1.9% in FBB (-0.4 p.p.)
Lower OpEx and CapEx on lower churn ARPU pressure in Q3 12 y-o-y: -16.1% in mobile -15.1% in FBB
More than 250 m savings in commercial costs in 9M 12 Sustainable 17% y-o-y CapEx reduction in 9M 12
1,718
45.0%
1,733
47.5%
42.8%
Q2 (0.5 p.p.)
Q3 1.0 p.p.
Q3 11/Q3 10
Q3 12/Q3 11
Penetration of new tariffs in the residential segments. OIBDA, CapEx and OpCF y-o-y change excluding provision for redundancy program and spectrum in Q3 11.
18
T. EUROPE
Monitoring the right mix of loyalty and growth to enhance revenue performance & profitability
Lower revenues on ARPU dilution (best value for money) partially offset with upselling potential Lower churn on increased customer satisfaction
Additional revenues from FBB customers taking mobile/ mobile customers taking FBB partially offset by ARPU dilution on existing services Upside from add-ons Lower churn Lower commercial costs
Fixed telephony line (monthly fee included) Fixed broadband access 500 min. F-M weekends + 50 min. week-days 500 min. mobile traffic 1 GB mobile data
19
T. EUROPE
26%
18%
Q3 11
Q2 12
Q3 12
334 19.4% Q1 12
25%
23.4% Q2 12
8%
1.1%
1.0%
1.1%
Q3 11
Q2 12
Q3 12
Q1 12 251 206
Q2 12
Q3 12
91
Q3 11 Q2 12 Q3 12
(5.0%)
MSR ex-regulation
(1)
Total Revenue
Smartphone penetration
(1)
20
T. EUROPE
215
294
239
189
280
171
MSR outperformance
1,295 789
Q2 12 8.6%
Q1 12
Q2 12
Q3 12
Slowing revenue growth y-o-y due to momentum built mainly in Q3 11 Non-SMS data revenue acceleration in Q3 Continued focus on value management with sequential improvement
Monetising data
23.4% Q1 12
25.7% Q2 12
OIBDA growth accelerates sequentially (+13.9% y-o-y in Q3 vs. +12.0% y-o-y in Q2) Further efficiencies, increased scale and revenue growth drive OIBDA margin expansion (+2.4 p.p. y-o-y in Q3)
21
TELEFNICA
2 As an enabler/retailer
of digital services
Extension of operator billing
agreements to new countries
22
TELEFNICA
Substantial net debt reduction since June driven by FCF generation and disposals
Net Financial Debt/OIBDA 2.65x
58,310
in millions
(2,541) 331
56,006
(3,183)
3,342
OpCF
Net Interest
Tax
Net financial debt/12 months rolling OIBDA. Excludes the provision for Workforce Reduction in Spain in Q3 11. (1) Post closing events include 934 m (Atento, Hispasat, Rumbo), 1,449 m Telefnica Deutschland IPO and up to 800 m Preferred shares swapped for treasury shares. (2) Net Financial Debt and OIBDA adjusted by post closing events.
23
TELEFNICA
13.4
Issuance Sep-12/ Oct-12 YTD Financing activity
Above 5 bn financing since Jun-12 Topping 11.5 bn full year financing in 2011 +500 credit investors in Europe, +400 credit investors in LatAm
H1 12 Financing activity
2 250 m Sep-12
3 1.200 m Oct-12
Latam 17%
Bonds at LatAm Col USD 750 m Sep-12 Chi USD 500 m Oct-12 10.7x UST+361 10yr 10.6x UST+225 10yr
costs dropping
24
TELEFNICA
8.9
7.4 6.4 +53% 7.8
5.1
87% LT 82% LT
18 bn total liquidity
Circa 4 bn liquidity increase in Q3 (+28%) Maturities covered beyond 2014
Cash Cash position position excluding excluding Venezuela(1) Venezuela(1) Jun-12 Sep-12
Undrawn Undrawn credit credit lines & lines & syndicated syndicated RCF (Jun-12) RCF (Sep-12)
Jun-12
(1)
Sep-12
25
TELEFNICA
Closing remarks
Delivering visible results from continued execution of our strategy
Consolidation of sequential improvement in underlying EPS leveraging growth in OIBDA q-o-q. Full year outlook and dividend reiterated Increased financial flexibility Further progress in our journey to become a Digital Telco
26
Organic growth: In financial terms, it assumes constant average exchange rates as of January-September 2011, and excludes hyperinflation accounting in Venezuela. Therefore, in OIBDA and OI terms, the first nine months of 2011 exclude the positive impact of the partial sale of our stake in Portugal Telecom (+183 million euros), and the provisions for the redundancy program in Spain (-2,671 million euros). In OIBDA and OI terms, the first nine months of 2012 exclude the capital loss of China Unicom (-97 million euros). Telefnica's CapEx excludes spectrum investment and, in 2011, real estate commitments in relation to the new Telefnica headquarters in Barcelona. Underlying growth: Reported figures, excluding exceptional impacts and spectrum acquisition. The first nine months of 2012 also exclude the reduction in the value of the Telecom Italia investment and operating synergies achieved (-542 million euros; -379 million euros net of taxes), and also PPAs (-799 million euros; -513 million euros net of taxes and minority interests), the capital loss of China Unicom (-97 million euros; -45 million euros net of taxes) and the difference in market value of the BBVA stake (-30 million euros; -21 net of taxes). Figures for the first nine months of 2011 exclude the provision for the redundancy program in Spain (-2,671 million euros; -1,870 million euros net of taxes), value adjustments in relation to the stake in Telecom Italia and the operating synergies achieved (-505 million euros; -353 million euros net of tax), the positive impact arising from a partial reduction of Telefnicas economic exposure to Portugal Telecom (+183 million euros) and also PPAs (-928 million euros; -569 million euros net of taxes and minority interests).