1. The document discusses corporate finance and financial analysis. It introduces key concepts such as the three roles of the CFO, financial instruments, types of financial investors and markets, and methods of financial analysis.
2. The document outlines seven steps to financial analysis: understanding the business, accounting principles, wealth creation analysis, investment analysis, financing analysis, return/profitability analysis, and investment criteria such as NPV, IRR, payback period.
3. The conclusion states that financial analysis assesses a firm's liquidity and solvency for lenders, and potential value creation compared to cost of capital for shareholders.
1. The document discusses corporate finance and financial analysis. It introduces key concepts such as the three roles of the CFO, financial instruments, types of financial investors and markets, and methods of financial analysis.
2. The document outlines seven steps to financial analysis: understanding the business, accounting principles, wealth creation analysis, investment analysis, financing analysis, return/profitability analysis, and investment criteria such as NPV, IRR, payback period.
3. The conclusion states that financial analysis assesses a firm's liquidity and solvency for lenders, and potential value creation compared to cost of capital for shareholders.
1. The document discusses corporate finance and financial analysis. It introduces key concepts such as the three roles of the CFO, financial instruments, types of financial investors and markets, and methods of financial analysis.
2. The document outlines seven steps to financial analysis: understanding the business, accounting principles, wealth creation analysis, investment analysis, financing analysis, return/profitability analysis, and investment criteria such as NPV, IRR, payback period.
3. The conclusion states that financial analysis assesses a firm's liquidity and solvency for lenders, and potential value creation compared to cost of capital for shareholders.
1. The document discusses corporate finance and financial analysis. It introduces key concepts such as the three roles of the CFO, financial instruments, types of financial investors and markets, and methods of financial analysis.
2. The document outlines seven steps to financial analysis: understanding the business, accounting principles, wealth creation analysis, investment analysis, financing analysis, return/profitability analysis, and investment criteria such as NPV, IRR, payback period.
3. The conclusion states that financial analysis assesses a firm's liquidity and solvency for lenders, and potential value creation compared to cost of capital for shareholders.
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CORPORATE FINANCE REVIEW
INTRODUCTION 1) What is finance made for: Finance is here to create a balance between agents who have money but no ideas and agents who have ideas but no money. Surplus of resources Financial System Deficit of resources
2) Money has a cost: Cost of money is the interest rate. It derives from the renunciation of immediate consumption in order to enjoy greater revenue in the future.
3) The 3 roles of CFO: To provide the firm with sufficient funds to finance its development, To make sure that the investment undertaken by the firm generates in the long term, at least the return required by investors, To take care of financial risks. A good CFO will understand his/her clients (fund providers) and propose appropriate financial instruments to them. Market Money Financial instrument Demand Firms Investors Supply Investors Firms Target Minimize interest rate Maximize value 4) Financial instrument: Are series of CF to be received (or paid) according to a set timetable. The value of the financial instrument is equal to the sum of discounted CF. The CFO segments the investors market. He/she creates financial instrument for each market segment depending on the risk that the investor is ready to bear. 3 features to differentiate debt from equity: Debt always needs to be repaid, not equity. Debt generates fixed return interest, whereas payment of dividends is not compulsory. The lack of payment of interest can lead to bankruptcy. In case of bankruptcy, creditors will be repaid prior to shareholders.
5) The financial investor: 3 types of behavior Speculation: bet with potential loss or profits. To speculate is to take a risk. Hedging: the opposite of speculation. To hedge is to transfer a pre-existing risk to an investor who accepts to bear the risk. Arbitrage: risk-free transaction that generates a profit for sure. Arbitrage opportunities are rare in general. Common point for all investors is the expected return = r f + (k M -r f ) / r f = risk free rate, k M = market return. Risk of an investment = market risk (non-diversifiable risk) + specific risk. Only market risk generates a return as specific risk can be avoided thanks to portfolio diversification.
6) Financial markets: key concepts Primary market: market for new instruments issued by firms (direct source of financing for firms). Secondary market: market for investors to exchange financial instruments. This does not provide the firms with new funds. This market allows investors to realize their instruments before the contractual maturity (if any) of the instrument. 2
Primary and secondary markets are closely linked; the prices observed on the secondary market define the price for new issues (primary market). Development of derivative market: derivatives (options, futures, forwards, swaps) derive from an underlying asset. They do not provide financing to the firm but allow the firm to more easily hedge or speculate. The derivatives market is a zero profit market (what is earned by one is lost by another) that does not generate wealth.
7) Financial risk Risk is equivalent to the change in value of the financial instrument. The greater the price change, the greater the risk.
I-FINANCIAL ANALYSIS 1- Get to know the business well (preliminary tasks): Understanding the production cycle - Who are the clients: what are the sales made of? Who are the suppliers? Who are the employers? 2- Understanding the accounting principles and policies: - Reading the auditors report: most likely non informative, but any comment or reserve should raise suspicion. - Accounting principles: Provisions (amt, probability of occurrence) Accruals: R&D, starting costs (difference between Capex and expense) Stocks Depreciation Accounting for revenue Scope of consolidation (SPV, non-controlled entities,etc.) 3- Analysis of the wealth creation (IS): Sales: - Change in sales year on year: growth, stagnation, decrease - Sources of changes: price, volume, external growth, disposals. Understand the business and the change in business volumes. Operating profit (EBIT): changes in operating profit compared to changes in sales shows whether costs are under control or not. - Scissors effect: diverging growth of sales and costs due to the negotiating power of the different players in the value chain. - Breakeven point: level of activity for which total revenue cover total costs. Below this level, the fir; will be loss making, above it will profitable.
4- Analysis of Investment: investments allow the firm to generate wealth. They are of 2 types. Investments in Fixed Assets (Capex): property, plants and equipment, subsidiaries, patents, etc. - Depreciation (that reflects from an accounting point of view the use of assets) needs to be compared to annual Capex. If Capex is superior: investment company, if equal: maintenance/renewal, if inferior: disinvestment. The investment policy needs to be compared to the changes in sales volumes (eg increase capacity during growth phase). - FA before depreciation (initial acquisition price) can also be compared to FA after depreciation. This gives an idea of the age and competitiveness of FA and their adequacy. Working Capital (WK): it derives from the difference in timing between the moment when suppliers are paid and the moment when clients pay. It is an investment as it is an immediate cash outflow with hope of higher cash inflow in the future. - WK is liquid: it represents a use of cash over a short period of time. - WK is permanent: there will always be inventories debtors and creditors. - WK evolves with activity (with no growth, regular growth, with growth and seasonal activity). 3
- WK will change across the year with the seasonality of activity. When they can, firms set their financial year and when WK (and therefore debt) is at its lowest. WK = Stocks (inventories) + Debtors (Receivables) Creditors (Payables) Ratios: o WK expressed in number of days of sales: WK/Sales*365 o DSO (Days sales outstanding): Receivables/Annual Sales (inc. VAT)*365 o DPO (Days payables outstanding): Payables/Annual Purchases (inc. VAT)*365 o DIO (Days inventory outstanding): Inventories & WIP/Annual Sales (exc. VAT)*365. Approximate in number of days of inventory. 5- Analysis of financing: 2 approaches. Dynamic (trend, management of financing needs over time): 3 ways self-financing, new money from shareholders, debt. The understanding of debt capacity requires the transformation of accounting data (IS) into CF (actual cash inflows and outflows). The change in real cash is called CF. It differs from NI as you have to add back depreciation as it is not an expensed but only an accounting entry. CF as defined above is, nevertheless, not yet a real flow of cash. NI + Depreciation = CF - WK = CF from operations - Invt outflows - Div. + Share issues = Reduction (increase) in net debt Account. (not CF) Not CF Closer to a flow of cash Corrects the timing diff. CF available for invt., dividend payment or reduction in debt
Static analysis: at one point of time, how the firm is financed, what are its financing options in the future. To assess, on the basis of the current financing data of the firm, whether it will be in position to repay its debt in the future. Ratio Debt/EBITDA. EBITDA = proxy for available cash to repay debt. < 2.5 (all right), between 2.5 and 3.5 (keep eyes wide open), 4-5 (difficulties), > 5 (critical). Remark: Debt/Equity ratio implicitly assesses that you expect to repay debt with equity which happens only in a bankruptcy process. Warning: check that EBITDA becomes cash at some point in time for the ratio to be relevant. 6- Analysis of return/profitability Return = Profit/Funds invested to generate this profit (2 types): - Return from invested capital, - Return for sharholders. o Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) Capital Employed = FA + WK. ROCE = EBIT * (1-Tax rate) / Capital Employed ROCE is independent from financial structure. It can be split into: Operating Profit before Tax / Cap. Empl. = OPBT / Sales * Sales / Cap. Empl. Warning: do not use the amount of corporate tax paid (computed after interest) as ROCE measures return BEFORE allocation of wealth creation (to lenders or shareholders). o Return On Equity (ROE) = NI / Equity ROE = ROCE (after tax) + {ROCE (after tax) after tax (cost of debt)}*Net debt/Shareholder Equity Leverage effect If ROCE = ROE: shareholders earn exactly what the assets generate.
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Conclusion 1- For the lender: Assess liquidity of the firm in the mid term, i.e. capacity to repay its debt in due time. Assess solvency in case liquidity has disappeared. 2- For the shareholder: potential value creation, comparison of ROCE and cost of capital.
II-INVESTMENT CRITERIA 1) NPV
C 0 is the investment at t =0 / r = required rate or return. NPV represents the actual value generated by an investment. If NPV>0; the investment is valuable from a financial perspective. If NPV<0; not interesting from a financial perspective but may be done for other reasons (strategic, affective, moral)
2) IRR The higher the discount rate, the lower the NPV. IRR (in %) is the rate for which NPV=0. If NPV>0, IRR>r and vice versa.
3) Payback ratio Its the period for which a sum of positive CF is equal to the sum of negative CF. A discounted payback can be computed (correct but more complex). It is a subjective criterion (risk of mistake).
4) Principles 1/ CF are to be considered and not accounting data. 2/ Assessment of the investment has to be made regardless of the financing: only operating CF of the project are considered. No CF linked to financing should be included. 3/ Reasoning should be in marginal terms, we only care about all CF generated by the investment. CF incurred prior to the investment decision (sunk costs) should be disregarded. Nevertheless, these costs will be taken into account in setting the selling price of future products. 4/ Reasoning should be in opportunity cost: land bought for 100, 10 years ago and worth 300 today corresponds to a CF of 300. 5/ Be consistent: - CF computed without inflation should be discounted using a discount rate without inflation. - If CF are pre-tax, discount rate should be pre-tax too. - If CF are in local currency, discount rate should reflect investments in that currency.
5) Computation of the CF There are 3 different types of CF to be considered: - Investment CF - Operating CF: computed on the basis of forecasted IS and BS - Terminal CF EBITDA - WK - Taxes - Capex = Free CF Closer to CF before any allocation (interest, dividends) to investors = EBIT + depreciation Theoretical tax on EBIT (EBIT*Tax rate)
Two methods for VALUATION Comparative method: through comparison with other similar firms Intrinsic method: considering only CF generated by the firm. 5
In addition, 2 approaches are possible for each method. Indirect approach: computation of the value of capital employed (entreprise value) of which debt is subtracted to derive equity value V Eq = EV - V D
Direct approach: direct computation if the equity value V Eq = V Eq
Intrinsic Comparative Direct (1) V Eq = F| (1+K) | |= = DIF| (1+K) | |=
k = r f + (k M -r f ) (3)
V Eq = NI * P/E Indirect (2) V Eq = FCF (1+Ki) | |= - V D
(4)
V Eq = EBIT multiple*EBIT - V D
kk (2)
1/ Intrinsic direct method Assumptions: - Div i = constant / V = Div/k = p/o * EPS/k (p/o = Payout ratio |0-1|) - Div (i+1) = Div i * (1+g) / V = Div/k-g = p/o * EPS/k-g (g = dividend annual growth) - If g>k as growth decreases over time, payout ratio increases.
2/ Intrinsic indirect method Valuation of Capital Employed i.e. funds provided by lenders and shareholders and not only shareholders, also called Entreprise Value (EV) or Invested Capital. V Eq = EV - V D
Assumptions: - FCF i = constant / EV = FCF/k - FCF (i+1) = FCF i * (1+g) / EV = FCF 1 /k-g (g = annual growth of FCF, g<k) - If g>ksee 1/c. - k = WACC (cost of capital)
3/ Comparative direct approach The basic principle for this method is that the value of the share does not depend directly on its own merits but on its performance compared with others. You should then compare the market value of equity for1 euro of NI in comparable companies (geography, business). This ratio is called Price Earning Ratio (P/E). P/E = Value of the share / Earnings per share (EPS). Assumptions: - Growth rate: The lower the anticipated growth, the lower the P/E and vice versa. - Risk: if risk is limited and visibility on future earnings is high then P/E is high. - Interest rates: if interest rates are high, you will require a high return and therefore P/E will be low. P/E is popular because it is simple and quick to use but all elements are synthetized in only one figure, analysis is then hard to refine.
4/ Indirect comparative approach This approach focusses on the valuation of capital employed (indirect, of interest for all funds providers) but using a multiple that compares different companies. 6
They key is EBIT as it reflects the operating wealth creation of the firm that has then to be allocated to lenders and shareholders (interest for lenders and NI for shareholders). Sometimes EBITDA is used especially for capital intensive businesses. V Eq = EV - V D
EV = EBIT * EBIT multiple (EV is derived) EBIT multiple = EV/EBIT It uses the same reasoning as P/E (but applied to EBIT instead of NI), consequences are the same: - Anticipated growth: if high, EBIT multiple will be high. - Risk: if low, EBIT multiple will be high. - Interest rates: if low, EBIT multiple will be high.
Conclusion The 1 st method (DDM) is now rarely used as the 2 nd method (DCF) has became the most popular valuation method. DCF requires that all assumptions are clearly stated.
III-COST OF CAPITAL WACC: is the return required by investors (shareholders and lenders) to finance the assets (capital employed) of the firm. It depends only on the risk of the assets. Cost of capital exists before the capital structure. Risk of the assets defines the cost of capital, cost of equity and cost of debt are then derived from that. WACC = k Eq * FFq FFq+FD + k D * (1-TR) * FD FFq+FD / k Eq = r f + (k M -r f ) 1- This formula suggests that WACC is derived from cost of equity and cost of debt: it is the reverse. 2- All reasoning should be made in market values and not accounting values. Returns used should be todays and not historical rates. 3- The weighting should be made on the basis of market values. In particular for equity for which you need to use the market value (eg number of shares * share price for listed firms). 4- In the same way, cost of debt to be used is todays cost of debt. In some cases, value of debt can differ materially from the accounting data (solvency deterioration for instance). 5- k Eq = r f + (k M -r f ): return required by shareholders. 6- Watch out for excel: you cannot change the weighting of debt and equity without changing their costs. 7- You cannot decide on an investment according to its financing. You first need to compare the IRR to WACC, then decide on how you want to finance it. 8- There might not be only one WACC, one firm can have several cost of capital as: a. The firm can have diversified businesses, each will have its own risk and therefore its own WACC. b. The firm can run businesses in different geographical areas with for each very different costs of financing (risk free rate)
IV-CONCEPTUAL FOUNDINGS OF CORPORATE FINANCE 1- Efficient market theory: Information is easily available at no cost. At any instant, market prices reflect all available information. This theory is correct in most cases. Some temporary forms of inefficiencies regularly happen, especially in crisis times. 2- Signalling theory: 7
Assumes that everybody has the same level of information. This asymmetry can be a problem as the value of a financial instrument does not reflect all available information. Illustration: an issue of share made when the price of the share is low and does not reflect its real value requires the issue of more shares. Dilution will be higher for existing shareholders who then have to bear this cost. A signal is a free decision taken in order to implicitly communicate new information to the market, a sanction is embedded if the information is not correct. In order to be a signal, the information should: - Be given voluntarily, - Originate from someone who has information that the market does not already have, - Lead to a sanction for the issuer of the signal if the information is not true. Accordingly, the issuer can cheat. The signal will reduce information asymmetry between management and investors. 3- Agency theory: Revisits the principle according to which management of a firm aims at maximizing the value of the funds invested by the shareholders in the firm. Maximization of value can sometimes be forgotten and management instead has its own agenda: try to increase sales, internal expansion, diversify business There are diverging interests between shareholders and management. This explains that some decisions are taken not for their own merits but to solve or reduce agency conflicts. Illustration: debt is one way to force management to generate regular CF in order to meet debt commitments. 4- Behavioral finance: Revisits the principle according to which all agents act purely rationally ignoring fear, greed, altruism.. Behavioral finance mixes neurosciences and psychology to better understand the behavior of investors. Its applications are still reduced and largely focused on financial market matters, rather than on corporate finance ones. V-CAPITAL STRUCTURE THEORY Financing structure (capital structure) is the split of the financing of capital employed between debt and equity. WACC = k Eq * FFq FFq+FD + k D * (1-TR) * FD FFq+FD
k Eq = r f + (k M -r f ) 1/ Traditional approach pre-1958 The more debt the firm is carrying, the riskier it will be. Return requested on equity will therefore increase in proportion to the ratio D/Eq. In addition, the risk taken by the lender will always be below the risk taken by shareholders k D < k Eq Finally, when debt level increases, risk for the lender increases and k D will be high.
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According to this theory, WACC presents a minimum and therefore there is an optimal ratio D/Eq that make it possible to minimize cost of capital and the maximize EV. 2/ 1958: Modigliani-Miller Have proved that whatever the capital structure, the WACC will stay unchanged, otherwise, there would be arbitrage opportunities. The value of capital employed will remain the same. Criticism: this theory does not take into account corporate tax (debt provides a tax shield). 3/ 1963: Modigliani-Miller Taking into account the bias created by the debt tax shield, they demonstrate the existence of an optimal capital structure.
4/ 1977: Miller He then takes into account, in addition to corporate tax, tax at the investor level. Most tax systems favour investment in shares compared to investment in debt. So, if a company takes debt instead of equity financing, the investor will receive income in the form of interest. This interest will be taxed more than if the income had came via dividends. Thus, the investor will require a higher return to compensate for higher taxation. This requirement will be proportionate to the savings on corporate tax that the firm will make by financing itself through debt.
Conclusion The tax shield generated by debt is counterbalanced by the higher tax rate at the investor level. Overall, taxation on debt does not provide an advantage, there is, therefore no optimal capital structure.
VI-HOW TO CHOOSE A CAPITAL STRUCTURE 1/ Most important is not the choice of a capital structure but the investment choice The quality of investment creates value: if the assets are good, the capital structure can be changed without a problem, the reverse is not true. 2/ There is no such thing as an expensive source of financing The cost of a financing source cannot be isolated from its risk. Debt costs less than equity but it increases the risk for the company (eg short term debt with Dexia): tradeoff between cost and risk.
3/ There is no such thing as an optimal capital structure Research in this field has not concluded anything. In practice, there is a large set of situations. We note that leading firms in their domains are generally financed with a very low level of debt.
4/ Choice factors Shareholders risk aversion and dilution appetite: Some like risk, and then do not fear debt. Debt can also be chosen by shareholders who do not want to be diluted through issue of new shares, they will then keep their control over the firm.
Flexibility: the market for equity is volatile with phases during which the issue of shares can be difficult, impossible or unfavorable. The market for debt is more stable. The firm should, therefore, not take on too much debt so as not to put itself in a position of hampering new investments, financed by debt, if equity cannot be raised at that time.
Sectors specifics: some industries are volatile with low visibility (airlines, technology, biotech), on the contrary others are very stable (food, retail). In a volatile sector, the firm should rather choose equity financing. It will, therefore, not increase its fixed costs base that could weaken the company. Debt is preferable for sectors with high visibility.
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Fixed costs and variables costs: in sectors where FC are structurally high, equity should be favored as it makes it possible not to increase breakeven point, as debt does through financial costs.
Competition: in a sector where all firms have high gearings, it is easier to convince investors that debt is the right choice.
VII-HOW TO CHOOSE A CAPITAL STRUCTURE In a pure financial logic: a firm that does not have investment opportunities that generate at least a return equal to its WACC should not keep the money once it reached its targeted financial structure. It should give it back to shareholders. 1/ Dividend policy and financial theories: - Efficient market theory: does not explain anything as giving back the money or reinvesting it at the right return is equivalent. - Signalling theory: if the firm increases its dividend, it means that management thinks it will be able to sustain this level in the future. Dividend is a proper signal of the companys good financial health and of managements confidence in the future. - Agency theory: dividends keep management under control as they limits the cash available in the firm. This limits the risk of overinvestment (investment in value destroying projects) or badly thought out diversifications. - Psychological dimension: shareholders cannot stop themselves from liking receiving dividends, it is perceived as a bonus. It is a mistake though as wealth remains unchanged; the share price decreases by the exact amount of the dividend. The only change is that part of the wealth has became liquid.
2/ How in practice: Ordinary dividend: amount paid each period to its shareholders (quarter in the US, half in UK or year France, Italy, Germany). 2 parameters: - Dividend per share: strong signal, a decrease is badly perceived. - Payout ratio: between 0 and 100%, generally close to 0 in growing companies and close to 100% in mature ones. Dividends help gain loyalty of shareholders: they give the false impression that it is better to get dividends than to sell shares. The reverse is also true: low dividends may lead shareholders to sell their shares. Extraordinary dividend: single payment, non recurring and clearly presented as such to shareholders. Can follow a large disposal for example. On the market share buybacks: the firm buys back its own shares in the market. It then cancels the shares. It targets a limited and small (in %) number of shares as it is forbidden for firms to artificially drive the price of their shares up. Share repurchase offer: offer made to shareholders to repurchase their shares for a significant volume. The firm offers a significant premium to share price (usually 15%). Shares acquired are then cancelled. Final outcome is a transfer of cash from the firm to its shareholders. Differences with on the market: One off transaction much higher volume premium over share price material change in capital structure, leverage increases and so does ROE.
2/ Which type of transaction to choose: Signal: increase in dividend (positive), extraordinary dividend (neutral), share buyback (positive: shows that management believes share is undervalued). 10
Flexibility: the least flexible is the ordinary dividend, then on the market, other methods are one-offs. Impact on shareholding structure: dividend (ordinary or extra) has no impact on shareholding structure. Share buyback changes shareholder base as all shareholders do not participate. Those who do not sell see their share increase but the value can decrease as the premium paid to others is a destruction of value. Taxes: can differ from tax on capital gains. Impact on stock options: dividends decrease the value of the underlying share by the amount of the dividend. Therefore, if management holds stock options it will favor share buybacks in the hope that it will push up the share price and not reduce it.
VIII-SHARE ISSUE A share issue is a sale of shares, the proceeds of which go to the firm and which implies a sharing (as the shareholder base will change) Shares should ideally be issued when the share price is high. A share issue can be a unique opportunity to accelerate the development of a company. Application: assume that a company wants to finance development through equity, it needs 200. Company A Eq =200 VEq = 100 Company B Eq =200 VEq = 200 Company C Eq =200 VEq = 400 Eq brought Voting right Eq brought Voting right Eq brought Voting right Existing shareholders 1/2 1/3 1/2 1/2 1/2 2/3 New Shareholders 1/2 2/3 1/2 1/2 1/2 1/3 : A has destroyed value in the past. The share issue will give a lot of power to new shareholders. It is a sanction for existing shareholders who are diluted and give away power to the new ones. Conversely, C generates a higher return than what shareholders require. The new shareholders will therefore have to pay a premium: they bring more equity (1/2) than the voting rights that they get (1/3).
A share issue can be a unique opportunity to accelerate the development of a company.
Application: assume that a firm has 1 million shares outstanding and issues 1 million more. Company A Eq =200 VEq = 100 Company B Eq =200 VEq = 200 Company C Eq =200 VEq = 400 Eq brought Voting right Eq brought Voting right Eq brought Voting right Existing shareholders 200 1/2 200 1/2 200 1/2 New Shareholders 100 1/2 200 1/2 400 1/2 Total 300 /+50% 400 /+100% 600 /+200% For the same dilution, equity increases by 50% (company A) to 200% (company C). In addition, the issue of shares makes it possible to raise more debt. In the case of C, it creates a huge leverage. Stock markets recognize the skills of Cs management. For the same dilution in all 3 cases, the financing capacity is very different and so is the financial strength. 11
Share issues and financial theory 1- Efficient market theory: not much to say 2- Signaling theory: A share issue is interpreted negatively by the market as it suggests that the share price is overvalued. This leads to a drop in share price at announcement of the transaction. This signal can be mitigated by: - A convincing speech on the industrial project. - An underwriting commitment subscribed by banks that will have done some due diligence. 3- Agency theory: Share issues are a way for shareholders to take more power from management as the transaction requires the approval of shareholders. It requires management to detail its business project, shareholders can then say yes or no. 4- The specifics of the distressed company The value of debt is below book value as there is a risk of bankruptcy. If a share issue is envisaged, lenders will be happy as the funds raised will allow the company either to repay debt or to finance a project that will increase its EV and therefore the value of their debt. Conversely, shareholders will be unhappy as the share price will drop (equity injected making it possible to increase the value of debt). There is a value transfer from shareholders to lenders.
Placing techniques 1. Without subscription rights: Method used when we want to go fast and target all investors (not only existing shareholders). Banks will buy and place new shares in a very short time frame. Banks buy the share slightly below market price, the difference being their remuneration. 2. Without subscription rights (rights issue): This technique allows existing shareholders to subscribe to the issue of new shares in proportion of their current holding. Implementing this technique implies time. As there is a lapse of time (usually c. 3 weeks); there will be risk attached. Therefore, the issue price is set at a discount (as a buffer) compared to current price. If an existing shareholder does not want to buy as many shares as he has the right to, he can sell all or part of his rights. On the other hand, an investor may wish to buy more shares than his original holding allows. The rights, therefore, have a certain financial value. There is an official market for rights during a few weeks.
Computation of the value of the subscription right Valuation based on arbitrage: Share price = 78. Issue of 1 new share for 10 existing at 67. Value of the subscription right = d On the day of issue of the rights, the new share price becomes 78-d (share price drops but the investors portfolio remains unchanged, the drop is only technical) Two options: a) Buy the share on the market for 78-R b) Buy 10R + 67 For no arbitrage to be possible 78 R = 10R +67 R= 1 In any case, the new shareholder pays 77 for the share. The existing shareholder, if he does not follow, is diluted but receives compensation of 1. His shares are now worth 77, but his wealth remains unchanged. 12
Formula: Value of the right = Share pr|ce-xuhxcr|pt|un pr|ce 1+Par|ty
Parity = Numher uJ ex|xt|ng xharex Numher uJ new xharex
Dilutions Following a share issue, there are two types of dilution: - Dilution of EPS, - Dilution of control. 1) Dilution of EPS: Inevitable once the after tax rate of return of the income form the share issue proceeds is less than the inverse of the P/E ratio. This is the most frequent case in the short term as investments made with the proceeds from the share issue earn very little initially. Its counterpart is a reduction in the risk of the share and accordingly, normally, a higher P/E ratio. Generally, there is no impact on the shares value. 2) Dilution of control: It corresponds to the reduction of rights to profits, equity and voting rights for the shareholder, for whom the share issue does not result in either a net inflow or a net outflow. When there is not preferential subscription right, it is calculated as follows: ???
When there is a preferential subscription right, the formula is the same, but N corresponds to the number of shares that would have been issued if the issue price of the new shares had been equal to the market value of the share. Except for firms where a shareholders control is precarious, dilution of control is not a very important issue. What counts is the return on investments financed by the share issue compared with the required rate of return. Better to have a share issue with preferential subscription rights and a high level of dilution control than alternatively to have to sell an asset at a knock-down price.
IX-DEBT STRUCTURING To structure a debt, 5 key choices must be made:
1/ Maturity a) Liquidity It is clearly limited at the moment but this is not always the case (high liquidity period 2005-2007) b) Interest rates Borrowing short term generates risk as the renewal of the loan might be at a higher rate Borrowing long term makes it possible to fix the rate over a long period but long term interest rates are generally higher than short-term rates c) Existing lenders Existing lenders may be reluctant for the firm to borrow at shorter term than the existing debt as it will increase their risk of not being reimbursed.
2/ Choosing between fixed and floating rate Fixed rates give a certain comfort whereas floating rates are more risky (bet on decrease in interest rates) 13
3/ Choosing the currency Currency for which interest rates are low may appear attractive but unfavorable movements in exchange rate are likely to counterbalance this advantage.
4/ Asset based financing or plain vanilla financing Plain vanilla financing: financed by the firms cash flows Asset based financing: loan secured by one of the firms assets. In this case, the lender knows exactly what it is financing. Warning: using a low risk asset as collateral to finance the firm, makes it possible to obtain good conditions on the specific loan but makes the rest of the firm more risky to finance. Lenders will be more reluctant to lend and will ask for higher rates.
5/ Bank loan or bonds For a small amount only bank financing is available (there is almost no bond issue for less than 100m). Interest rate on bank loans is generally lower than on bonds as banks use this product to gain a commercial relationship with the firm, they then try to sell other higher margin products. Speed of implementation: issuing bonds requires some time whereas a bank loan can be obtained very rapidly. Covenants: banks usually require that covenants be attached to the loan so as to restrict how the funds will be used. Covenants make it possible to monitor the risk on lent funds. It is useful to have two types of lenders (banks and the bond market) in order to be able, at any moment, to tap into different financing sources.
X-LBOs An LBO is a transaction whereby a target company is acquired by a holding company that will raise debt to buy the shares from existing shareholders. The holding company will then repay its debt thanks to the cash flows of the target. This structure leads to a large increase in the consolidated net debt of the group.
1/ LBO: new governance structure Governance: interaction mode between shareholders and management. In an LBO, management is offered two things: - Managers have to become shareholders of the company. As equity is rather low due to the high level of debt, the financial leverage is high and therefore there is potentially a high return for shareholder over a limited time frame (3 to 5 years). This carrot leads to a strong management commitment. - But there is also a stick: if the company does not perform, the structure will go bankrupt and managers will lose their jobs, their investments, and their reputations. The double incentive leads to proven higher ROCE for companies under LBO compared to their competitors. High level of debt pushes them to create value through better operating performance.
Limits of the structure: Obsession to generate cash with high focus on short term If things go wrong, the discouragement will be all the more serious
Managers are highly tempted by this type of structure due to the very high return potential. 2 / Players a) LBO funds: private equity 14
Small teams of high profile professionals that raise equity from investors. They will: - Identify the targets - Negotiate the acquisition with the seller - Put in place the new governance - Monitor the implementation of the business plan - Sell at the appropriate time to realize capital gain Anticipated return over 3 to 5 years is c. 25% p.a. (it would be c. 9% without leverage) Actual returns are on average 15%, but can reach 30 to 40% A private equity firm that has demonstrated its ability to invest will then easily raise funds as investors will be satisfied. Examples of private equity funds: KKR, Wendel, PAI; etc.
Shareholders (institutional or wealthy individuals)
LBO fund Management Company
Holding 1 Holding 2 Holding 3
Target 1 Target 2 Target 3
b) Lenders Lenders are banks that have to assess precisely the risk taken (often debt/EBITDA > 4, it can reach 7 or 8 etc.) Banks very carefully analyze the capacity of the target to generate cash and the structure of debt. Senior debt (tranche A, B and C): priority repayment Mezzanine debt: more risky and therefore more expensive. Part of the interest is paid in cash, part is capitalized (PIK) and part is in the form of warrants (call options)
This makes it possible to create different risk segments depending on the investors taste for risk.
c) Managers They can be existing managers (MBO), newly brought-in mangers (MBI) or a mix of the two. Managers generally go for 1, 2 or 3 LBOs but then retire (exhausted and rich or bankrupt)
d) Targets Initially, typical target companies were highly stable mature companies in sectors with high barriers to entry. But as LBOs developed the sectors broadened with even some restructuring companies becoming targets. Some sectors are not suitable (biotech, high tech) as volatility of the capital employed is too high or capex are too large. Before 2007, 15 to 20% of acquisitions were made in the form of an LBO.
3/ Exit of an LBO a- Bankruptcy In general, it is a real slaughter (fight between shareholders, unstable management, etc.) b- Disposal to an industrial buyer End of the dream: aggressive and free actions stopped, administrative routine comes back
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c- IPO Illustration; Legrand in 2006 after and LBO (2003) leading to an increase in EV from 3bn to 7bn. . d- Disposal to another LBO fund Secondary LBO. This is the case of Picard (which belonged to Carrefour) bought by Candover, then resold with high returns to another fund (BC Partners) which sold it to Lion Capital which sold it to
e- Leverage recapitalization A large portion of Equity is distributed in the form of dividends financed by new debt. This is equivalent to a secondary LBO but with the same equity investors.
Remarks: - LBO funds may appear cynical as only the IRR is important - Only little data available on failures - Shareholders of the fund have very little decision making power over the management company.
XI-M&As 1 / Reasons a) Microeconomic factors Share fixed costs: e.g. Pernod and Absolut Vodka; as sales force of Pernod are fixed costs. Acquire market share: organic growth is sometimes not enough to gain market share. Gain time: organic growth can be a lengthy process. Get larger to take more risks: capex in some sectors can be extremely high (R&D in the pharmaceutical industry, IT costs for banks) Acquisition opportunities: family selling their business Media impact of an acquisition
b) Macroeconomic factors Deregulation: in the US Glass-Stagall Act used to prevent investment banks from commercial bank operations. Geographical change of scope: sector growing from being national to European, and then worldwide. Technical innovation Development of financial markets that offers more financing to industrial buyers Waves of M&A: o In the 60s, large conglomerates appear as management skills are offered to subsidiaires. o In the 80s, the conglomerates died, some financial investors (Hanson) specialize in splitting those groups (e.g. ITT) o Since 97-98, M&A transactions justified by industrial synergies have come in waves (economic environment, mimetic behavior). 2 / Implementation a- Cash acquisition Easiest way. Strong psychological value for the seller
b- Payment in shares The payment in shares is much more complex. If the buyer is not listed, the counter value of the shares can be hard to assess and liquidity will be an issue. The shareholders of both companies need to agree on the transaction. 16
Pros: - Common interest of the buyer and the seller - Sometimes not avoidable as banks will not lend large amounts to some sectors (eg volatile industries: Lucent / Alcatel) Two methods: Merger: transaction through which 2 legal entities are regrouped into one. There is only one surviving entity. The buyer issues new shares that are given to the seller in exchange for the shares of the target. The target becomes a subsidiary of the buyer. c) Mix of cash and shares Illustration: acquisition of Arcelor by Mittal. Cash offer and Exchange offer are ways of implementing an acquisition.
3 / Key parameters a- Premium To acquire, a premium has to be paid. The buyer can afford to pay this premium as it anticipates delivering synergies that will make it possible to increase profits of the targets. The average premium paid is 20-30%. Theoretically the maximum premium paid should be the NPV of 100% of anticipated synergies.
b- The proportion of cash Obviously from 0% to 100%, depends on: - The debt capacity of the acquirer (depends on its financial situation pre-acquisition and on the industry in which it operates). - Shareholders: acquisition using shares will alter the shareholding structure and the power of controlling shareholders if any. - Tax issues: a swap of shares is usually treated differently from a cash payment (immediate tax on capital gain). Exchange of shares can be more complex but more interesting from a tax point of view. - Signal: to issue shares may lead the market to believe that shares are overvalued even if this signal is not the key decision making criteria. - Impact on EPS
4 / Conclusion The buyer should not overpay but in rare circumstances, it is better for strategic reasons to overpay than miss the deal.
The success of an M&A transaction depends on the implementation of the consolidation of the teams (complex and delicate human phase). The integration of the teams should be done quickly. If buyers behave in an aggressive manner, integration can be a disaster.