Daily Reports: USD/INR March 31, 2009

Daily Commentary
Price Movements for 30.03.09
INR demonstrated some weakness on Monday’s trading session as
USD/INR Cash
SENSEX fell by around 400 points. Weakness in the equity markets
still seems to persist as the global markets are still under pressure Open 50.90

with Dow Jones and FTSE falling by more than 300 and 100 points High 51.33

respectively. The steep fall was caused mainly because of mounting Low 50.87
Close 51.30
uncertainties regarding US government’s auto industry package and
Previous Close 50.59
persisting problems in banking sector. Markets witnessed some
profit booking by foreign institutional investors as they pulled out
RBI Fixing Rates
around 452.32 crore of equities. In the forward premia market, the
six month premium closed lower at 3.25 percent (3.35 percent) and Currency Quote (in INR)

the one year closed at 2.51 percent (2.55 percent) on Monday.

USD 51.08

EURO 67.52
FII Investment in Equity and Debt
GBP 72.4800
Date Market Gross Purchase Gross Sale Net Flow 100 YEN 52.78
(Rs. Crores) (Rs. Crores) (Rs. Crores)
27 Mar Equity 1740.7 2011.4 -270.7

Debt 69.5 0 69.5 Forward Rates Premium/Discount

25 Mar Equity 1831.9 1534.3 297.6
Detail Bid Ask
Debt 1500.9 1578.7 -77.9
1 Month Forward 21.75 23.75
24 Mar Equity 2288.4 1589.2 699.2
3 Month Forward 51.25 53.25
Debt 262.5 1226.9 -964.4
6 Month Forward 84.75 86.75
Important Economic Indicators
1 Year Forward 128.50 130.50

Details Net Change Closing Level Non Deliverable Forward

WPI (Inflation) -0.17% 0.27%
(For week ended 14 Mar) Detail Bid Ask
Foreign Exchange Reserve 5.1 billion $253.82 billion
(As on 20 Mar.) 1 Month Forward 51.50 51.60
Sensex -480.35 9568.14
3 Month Forward 52.15 52.27
Nifty -130.5 2978.15
6 Month Forward 52.80 53.00
Crude Oil -3.05 49.25
1 Year Forward 53.85 54.10

RESEARCH DESK - Religare Commodities Limited Address: A2, A-3,A-4,plot No.11, 5th Floor, Park Centra ,Sector-125,Noida ,U.P-201301
E-mail: currency@religare.in Website: www.religarecommodities.com | REL/RCL/CRD/TM/19/00
1
 The committee on financial sector assessment has recommended that the banking sector should be gradually
opened to foreign players and that the government should lower its share holding in public sector banks to below
51 percent and allows state owned players to merge. On the other hand foreign banks in India may have to sell at
least 26% stake in Indian subsidiaries and meet government targets for lending, under proposals made by a joint
reserve bank of India and Finance Ministry panel. The data of current account balance in dollars and trade deficit
which is due to release today is also awaited and can be a major factor in determining the price action in coming
days.

Outlook

USD has resurged strongly in previous trading session after being provided ground by the significant level of 50.
After having retraced close to 61.8% from the recent low of 50.02, it might be restricted in its uphill move by 51.35
mark and we might witness some profit booking at this level. The resistance level being surpassed would mean
USD scaling past even the all time high of 52.13. Support for the day is pegged at 50.80 and resistance is seen at
51.50.

Analyst
Sugandha Sachdeva
+ 0120-3395500
sugandha.sachdeva@religare.in

RESEARCH DESK - Religare Commodities Limited Address: A2, A-3,A-4,plot No.11, 5th Floor, Park Centra ,Sector-125,Noida ,U.P-201301
E-mail: currency@religare.in Website: www.religarecommodities.com | REL/RCL/CRD/TM/19/00
2
 Disclaimer

Religare Commodities Limited (Religare) Research is aimed to service the clients of Religare. This document has been prepared by Religare. Affiliates of
Religare may have issued other reports that are contrary with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report. The views and
opinions expressed in this document may or may not match or may be contrary with the views, estimates, rating and target price of the other affiliates of
Religare.

We are not soliciting any action based upon this material. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any
investment / contract in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It is for the general information of clients of Religare. It does not
constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Not all
customers may receive this report at the same time. Religare will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. It should be noted that
the information contained herein is from publicly available data or other sources believed to be reliable. Neither Religare, nor any person connected with it,
accepts any liability arising from the use of this document.

This document is not intended to be and must not be taken as the basis for any investment decision. The investment discussed or views expressed may not be
suitable for all investors. The user assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. The recipients of this material should rely on their own
investigations and take their own professional advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as it deems necessary to arrive at an
independent evaluation of an investment referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult its own advisors to determine
the merits and risks of such an investment. Price and value of the investments referred to in this material may go up or down. Past performance is not a guide for
future performance. Certain transactions -including those involving futures, options and other derivatives involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all
investors. Reports based on technical analysis centers on studying charts of a price movement and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on fundamentals and
as such, may not match with a report on commodities fundamentals.

Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. We do not undertake to advise you as to any change of our views
expressed in this document. While we would endeavor to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, Religare, its subsidiaries and associated
companies, their directors and employees are under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also there may be regulatory, compliance, or other
reasons that may prevent Religare and affiliates from doing so. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not
predictions and may be subject to change without notice.

This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country
or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject Religare and affiliates
to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The investments described herein may or may not be eligible /permitted in all jurisdictions
or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction.

Religare and its affiliates, officers, directors, and employees may: (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the contracts thereof, in
commodities / contracts mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other activity involving such commodities / contracts and earn brokerage or other
compensation or act as a market maker in the commodities / contracts discussed herein or act as advisor or lender / borrower or have other potential conflict of
interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall Religare, any of its
affiliates or any third party involved in, or related to, computing or compiling the information have any liability for any damages of any kind.

Copy right in this document vests exclusively with Religare. This information should not be reproduced or redistributed or passed on directly or indirectly in any
form to any other person or published, copied, in whole or in part, for any purpose, without prior written permission from Religare. We do not guarantee the
integrity of any e-mails or attached files and are not responsible for any changes made to them by any other person.

The analyst for this report certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject commodities /
contracts, and no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Analyst’s holding in the commodities / contracts mentioned in the report: NIL

RESEARCH DESK - Religare Commodities Limited Address: A2, A-3,A-4,plot No.11, 5th Floor, Park Centra ,Sector-125,Noida ,U.P-201301
E-mail: currency@religare.in Website: www.religarecommodities.com | REL/RCL/CRD/TM/19/00
3