VR RLBVR RL HBFF EN
VR RLBVR RL HBFF EN
VR RLBVR RL HBFF EN
for drawing up a
SAFETY REPORT
05/05/2009
Flemish Government LNE Department Environment, Nature and Energy Policy Unit Safety Reporting Division
SAFETY REPORT
05/05/2009
Flemish Government LNE Department Environment, Nature and Energy Policy Unit Safety Reporting Division
Table of Contents
CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION CHAPTER 2: PRESSURE TANKS CHAPTER 3: MOBILE PRESSURE CONTAINERS CHAPTER 4: ATMOSPHERIC TANKS CHAPTER 5: HEAT EXCHANGERS CHAPTER 6: PUMPS AND COMPRESSORS CHAPTER 7: PIPE SYSTEMS CHAPTER 8: LOADING AND UNLOADING ACTIVITIES CHAPTER 9: FIRE IN WAREHOUSES CHAPTER 10: PACKAGING UNITS CHAPTER 11: REPRESSION SYSTEMS CHAPTER 12: CONSEQUENTIAL EVENTS CHAPTER 13: REFERENCES 9 12 13 14 17 19 20 21 22 23 24 28 31
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Preface
In 1994 a directive entitled Handboek Kanscijfers [HBKC1994] was issued. This directive described the failure frequencies for the different installation parts to be used by safety reporting experts when drawing up safety reports. In 2002 the directive Actualisatie van de AMINAL-richtlijn voor het gebruik van faalkansen bij het opstellen van veiligheidsrapporten was published. This directive only listed the new failure frequencies for a limited number of installation parts. For the failure frequencies which were maintained reference was made to the respective remaining chapters of Handboek Kanscijfers. In 2004 the 1994 Handboek Kanscijfers and the 2002 directive were joined into one document, namely the coordinated version Handboek Kanscijfers 2004 [HBKC2004]. In 2007 the TWOL project Actualisering van de faalkansen in de risicoberekeningen van Sevesobedrijven [SGS] was delivered. The purpose of this project was to obtain more up-to-date failure frequencies for several installation parts. Based on the end report of the TWOL project and after consultation with the accredited safety reporting experts and the Seveso establishments, this Handbook on Failure Frequencies 2009 was drawn up. All background information on the failure frequencies listed here can be found in the accompanying document with background information [AI2009].
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Chapter 1:
Introduction
In the following chapters the types of failure and the generic failure frequencies per installation (part) within an establishment will be discussed. In the quantitative risk analysis all these types of failure must be taken into account and the given generic failure frequencies must be used. The failure frequencies given in this handbook have priority over all other failure frequencies available in the literature. If other installations than those included here should turn out to be relevant to external safety, these should be included in the quantitative risk analysis with a well-founded failure frequency. Frequently used symbols deq Dmax D10 DL, max Equivalent leak diameter (mm) Maximum connection diameter (mm) Leak diameter which gives rise to a release in 10 minutes Maximum leak diameter (= min (Dmax, D10))
Instantaneous failure
Instantaneous failure of a tank is modelled in two ways, namely as a rupture and as a complete outflow in 10 minutes. The frequency for instantaneous failure is distributed equally over both release scenarios. If one of the leaks to be modelled gives rise to an outflow of the entire content in 10 minutes or less, the type of failure complete outflow in 10 minutes should not be included in the risk assessment, but the failure frequency for this type of failure should be added to the failure frequency for the type of failure rupture. Consequently, the total failure frequency for instantaneous failure will always be applied, either distributed over the types of failure complete outflow in 10 minutes and rupture, or only under the type of failure rupture.
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Leakage
The handbook provides for three types of leakage, namely large leak, medium leak and small leak. The way in which these types of leakage are considered in the risk assessment depends on the maximum leak diameter. To determine the maximum leak diameter the minimum of the maximum connection diameter and the diameter giving rise to an outflow in 10 minutes is taken (DL, max = min (Dmax, D10)). If the maximum leak diameter is smaller than or equal to 10 mm, only the type of failure small leak is taken into account in the risk assessment, with a failure frequency equal to the sum of the failure frequencies for the types of failure large leak, medium leak and small leak. The equivalent leak diameter is equated with 10 mm. If the maximum leak diameter is situated in the interval of the medium leak (1050 mm), the type of failure large leak should not be taken into consideration in the risk assessment, but the failure frequency of the type of failure large leak should be added to that of the type of failure medium leak. The equivalent leak diameter for the type of failure medium leak' is equated with the maximum leak diameter. The type of failure small leak is still considered separately in the risk assessment, with its own failure frequency and an equivalent leak diameter of 10 mm. If the maximum leak diameter is bigger than or equal to 50 mm, the types of failure large leak, medium leak and small leak are all taken into account in the risk assessment separately, each with its own failure frequency. The equivalent leak diameter for the type of failure large leak' is equated with the maximum leak diameter. The equivalent leak diameter for the type of failure medium leak is equated with 25 mm. The equivalent leak diameter for the type of failure small leak is equated with 10 mm.
installation part in question. To each (partial) cause a relative contribution is linked. For each (partial) cause a safety measure or a package of safety measures is proposed which can lead to a reduction in the relative contribution of this (partial) cause. A safety measure can obviously lead to a reduction in the relative contribution of several (partial) causes. For the assignment of the reduction factors the following general rules apply:
No. 1. 2. 3. 4. Situation Organisational or policy-based safety measure Technical safety measure Technical safety measure, implemented redundantly and monitored via a safety circuit which is independent from the process computer Safety measure which excludes a partial cause, or partial cause which is not applicable Reduction factor 0.10 0.05 0.01 0
The situations described in the table above are intended as a guideline. Analyses of causes often include the category cause unknown. This category comprises failures for which no univocal cause is mentioned in the literature, or which were due to a combination of causes. The relative contribution of this category cannot be reduced. The safety measures are described in a clear and detailed way. Their availability, operability, effectiveness, efficiency and reliability must be demonstrated in a way which is considered adequate. A reduced failure frequency must never be lower than 10% of the generic failure frequency.
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Chapter 2:
Pressure tanks
In Table 1 the generic failure frequencies are given for leaks and instantaneous releases in pressure tanks. This table applies to all pressurised installation parts, with the exception of those mentioned elsewhere in the handbook. This table should be read together with the explanation in paragraph 1.1.
Table 1: Failure frequencies [/tank year] for pressure tanks
Type of failure
Failure frequency [/tank year] Storage tanks Process Above ground installations and Underground (incl. road tankers other or mounded and tankwagons) 1.2 10-5 1.2 10-4
Small leak
0.1 < d 10 mm deq = 10 mm
Medium leak
10 < d 50 mm deq = 25 mm
1.1 10-6
1.1 10-5
Large leak
50 < d Dmax deq = DL, max
1.1 10-6 3.2 10-7 3.2 10-7 1.0 10-7 1.0 10-7
The installation part pressure tank consists of the vessel including the manhole, instrumentation connections and pipe connections up to the first flange. Leaks in the corresponding pipe system are not included here. If the pipe connection up to the first flange is longer than 10 m, the pipe connection must be regarded as a separate pipe part.
Definitions Mobile pressure tank Fixed pressure tank Vessel for hazardous substances of ADR category 2. Vessel with a design pressure of at least 0.5 bar overpressure.
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Chapter 3:
As generic failure frequencies the figures mentioned in Table 2 apply. These failure frequencies apply to all mobile pressure containers up to 1,000 litres (gas cylinders and pressure vessels).
Failure frequency Gas cylinder [/cylinder.year] 1.1 10-6 Pressure vessel [/vessel.year] 1.1 10-5 1.1 10-6
Definitions Pressure container Pressure vessel Gas cylinder Container with a design pressure of at least 0.5 bar overpressure. Mobile pressure container with a water content of more than 150 litres and not exceeding 1,000 litres. Mobile pressure container with a water content not exceeding 150 litres.
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Chapter 4:
Atmospheric tanks
In Table 3 the generic failure frequencies are given for leaks and instantaneous releases in atmospheric tanks. For storage tanks the decision tree in Figure 1 must be used to determine from which column the failure frequencies should be taken. This table should be read together with the explanation in paragraph 1.1.
Table 3: Failure frequencies [/tank year] for atmospheric tanks
Type of failure
Small leak
0.1 < d 10 mm deq = 10 mm
2.4 10-3
2.4 10-2
Medium leak
10 < d 50 mm deq = 25 mm
2.2 10-4
2.2 10-3
Large leak
50 < d < Dmax deq = DL, max
2.2 10-4
2.2 10-3
5.0 10-6
5.0 10-7
1.2 10-8
1.0 10-8
1.0 10-8
5.0 10-5
5.0 10-6
5.0 10-7
1.2 10-8
1.0 10-8
1.0 10-8
5.0 10-5
* For leaks these failure frequencies apply to the first (inner) shell.
The abovementioned failure frequencies must be applied to all separate atmospheric tanks. In case of compartmentalisation the failure frequency should be applied per compartment. The installation part atmospheric tank consists of the tank including the manhole, instrumentation connections and pipe connections up to the first flange. Leaks in the corresponding pipe system are not included here. If the pipe connection up to the first flange is longer than 10 m, the pipe connection must be regarded as a separate pipe part.
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Yes
No
Yes
No
Has the second shell been designed to retain vapour if the first shell fails?
Yes
No
Tank type 4
Tank type 3
Tank type 2
Tank type 1
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In Table 4 the failure frequency of a tank fire is displayed for the different types of liquids.
Table 4: Failure frequencies [/tank year] for tank fire in atmospheric tanks
Scenario
Tank type
Failure frequency [/tank year] P3 and P4 P1 liquid P2 liquid liquids 2.5 10-4 6.9 10-4 2.5 10-4 7.6 10-5 2.1 10-4 7.6 10-5 2.3 10-5 6.2 10-5 2.3 10-5
Tank with external floating roof Tank fire Tank with fixed roof without nitrogen blanket Tank with fixed roof with nitrogen blanket
Definitions Mobile atmospheric tank Fixed atmospheric tank P1 liquids P2 liquids P3 liquids P4 liquids Tank for hazardous substances not belonging to ADR category 2. Tank with a design pressure smaller than 0.5 bar overpressure. Extremely and highly flammable liquids, in particular liquids with a flashpoint below 21C. Flammable liquids, in particular liquids with a flashpoint equal to or above 21C and equal to or below 55C. Flammable liquids with a flashpoint higher than 55 C and equal to or lower than 100 C. Flammable liquids with a flashpoint higher than 100 C and equal to or lower than 250 C.
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Chapter 5:
Heat exchangers
Type of failure - shell Small leak 0 < d 25 mm deq = 10 mm Medium leak 25 < d 50 mm deq = 35 mm Large leak 50 < d 150 deq = 100 mm Rupture
3.9 10-3
Internal pipe rupture will lead to a leak in the shell if the operating pressure in the pipes is higher than the design pressure of the shell, and there is no or insufficient pressure evacuation. Depending on the specific situation, it should be verified what the probability of shell failure (leakage) as a result of pipe rupture is, and this scenario should be taken into account separately. In this case a failure frequency of 7.1 10-3/heat exchanger.year is assumed for pipe rupture.
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Type of failure P < 5 bar Small leak 0 < d 25 mm deq = 10 mm Medium leak 25 < d 50 mm deq = 35 mm Rupture 4.6 10-3
Failure frequency [/heat exchanger.year] 5 bar P < 8 bar 7.0 10-3 8 bar P 1.8 10-2
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Chapter 6:
The generic failure frequencies for pumps and compressors are displayed in Table 7.
Table 7: Failure frequencies for pumps and compressors
Failure frequency [/pump year] or [/compressor year] Type of failure Centrifugal pumps With gaskets Leak deq = 0.1 Dmax Rupture 4.4 10-3 Without gaskets 1.0 10-4 Reciprocating pumps Compressors 4.4 10-3 1.0 10-4
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Chapter 7:
Pipe systems
In Table 8 the failure frequencies for above ground and underground pipe systems are displayed.
Table 8: Failure frequencies for pipe systems
Failure frequency [/year] 2.8 10-7 L/D 1.2 10-7 L/D 5.0 10-8 L/D 2.2 10-8 L/D
Crack
deq = 10 mm
Medium leak
deq = 0.15 D
Large leak
deq = 0.36 D
Hole
deq = 0.5 D
Rupture
Rupture
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Chapter 8:
For leakage or rupture of the loading/unloading hose and the loading/unloading arm during loading and unloading activities with road tankers, tankwagons and ships, the values in Table 9 are used.
Table 9: Failure frequencies for (un)loading arms and hoses
3 10-7 3 10-8
Rupture
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Chapter 9:
Fire in warehouses
The generic failure frequencies for a fire in warehouses are listed in Table 10 per fire compartment.
Table 10: Failure frequencies for a fire in warehouses
Scenario
Fire in warehouse without an automatic fire fighting system Fire in warehouse with an automatic fire fighting system
Definitions Automatic fire fighting A fire fighting system in which both detection and activation system take place automatically, without human intervention. Fire compartment The smallest space within which a fire can be isolated for a certain period of time thanks to fire-resistant materials.
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Chapter 10:
Packaging units
The following table gives an overview of the failure frequencies for packaging unit storage and handling within a company. If several packaging units are possible on a pallet, both types of failure for packaging unit handling must be included.
Table 11: Failure frequencies for packaging unit storage and handling
Failure frequency Type of failure Packaging unit storage [/packaging unit year] 2.5 10-5 Packaging unit handling [/packaging unit handling] 2.5 10-5 2.5 10-6
In the case of containers containing multiple packaging units, the failure frequencies must be applied to all items in the container in question. The container itself is not considered a packaging unit.
Definitions Packaging units Packaging unit handling Mobile recipient with a content not exceeding 3 m and which is suitable for the storage of liquids or solids. Any activity involved in moving packaging units. The loading or unloading of a pallet of packaging units or of one single packaging unit is regarded as one packaging unit handling operation.
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Chapter 11:
Repression systems
If active repression systems are taken into consideration in the quantitative risk analysis, the scenario of the failure of these measures should also always be considered. Guideline values for the probability of failure and for the response time of some repression systems have been gathered in Table 12. The quantitative risk analysis, however, starts from the actual situation. The general procedure from paragraph 11.5 can be applied here to determine the probability of failure and the response time. It should also be taken into account that the effectiveness of a repression system can depend on the release scenario. Small leaks are often difficult or impossible to detect within a reasonable period of time, which can annul the effectiveness of e.g. a blocking system (at least from a safety reporting point of view).
Table 12: Probabilities of failure and response times of repression systems
System Automatic Semi-automatic Outflow rate set value Excess flow valve Set value < outflow rate 1.2 set value Outflow rate > 1.2 set value Non-return valve Operator intervention during (un)loading activity Tested regularly Conditions, see paragraph 11.4
Probability of failure per demand 0.1 - 0.001 0.1 - 0.01 1 0.12 0.06 0.06 0.1
Blocking system
5 120
For the modelling one should also take into account the amount of product which is present in the pipelines and installation parts and may still be released after the valves have been closed. If several active repression systems are in place, the probability of failure of the entire system must be determined. This should be done paying the necessary attention to the possible occurrence of common cause failures. Passive repression systems are measures which were already in place before the release took place. Typical passive measures are constructions such as containment systems, bunkers and firewalls. For the quantitative risk analysis it is assumed that these measures do not fail and that the response time is 0 sec.
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Definitions Blocking system Suppression system to isolate (part of) an installation to prevent (further) outflow. A blocking system consists of a detection system, for instance gas detection, combined with shut-off valves. System in which leak detection and the closing of blocking valves is automatic. Action by an operator is not necessary. System in which the detection of the leak takes place automatically and leads to an alarm signal in a continuously staffed control room. After validation of the signal the operator closes the blocking valves by actuating a switch in the control room. The operator has been trained in and regularly practises the emergency procedure.
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Chapter 12:
Consequential events
The generic event tree is shown in Figure 2. Here, the possible effects are shown which can appear in case of a release of a substance. However, no judgement is made as to the relevance of the effects. It should be noted that the event tree does not take into account repression systems either.
direct ignition PD delayed ignition PV explosion PE
E1
PD
E0 E2 ( 1-PD) PV PE
E3
( 1-PD) PV ( 1-PE )
E4
( 1-PD) ( 1-PV )
The hazardous phenomena to be taken into consideration are displayed for the different product types in Table 13 for rupture and in Table 14 for leakage and 10-minute outflow.
Table 13: Hazardous phenomena for rupture Effect Non-combustible substances E0 E1 Physical explosion Group 0 Physical explosion* Fire ball (under pressure)* Pool fire (pressureless) Vapour cloud explosion Pool fire Flash fire Pool fire Group 1 Physical explosion Pool fire Vapour cloud explosion Pool fire Flash fire Pool fire Groups 2 and 3 Physical explosion Pool fire
E2 E3 E4
Toxic vapour cloud Toxic vapour cloud Toxic vapour cloud Toxic vapour cloud * For the modelling for above ground tanks, in principle a hot BLEVE is assumed, whereas for underground tanks a cold BLEVE is assumed.
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Table 14: Hazardous phenomena for leakage and complete outflow in 10 min. Effect Non-combustible substances E0 E1 Group 0 Jet fire Pool fire Vapour cloud explosion Jet fire Pool fire Flash fire Jet fire Pool fire Toxic vapour cloud Group 1 Pool fire Vapour cloud explosion Pool fire Flash fire Pool fire Toxic vapour cloud Groups 2 and 3 Pool fire
E2
E3 E4
The generic probabilities of failure for direct and delayed ignition for the different product groups are reflected in Table 15. In this table, the probability of explosion is also indicated.
Table 15: Probability of direct and delayed ignition and probability of explosion
Probability Group 0
Average / high reactivity Low reactivity
Group 1 0.065 0.07 0.2 0.065 0.07 0.2 0.065 0.07 0.2
To determine the probability of delayed ignition PV and the probability of explosion PE alternative methods can be used as well, based on the size of the combustible/explosive cloud [Prugh] or the presence of specific sources of ignition [RIVM].
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By default, a probability of ignition for average/high reactivity should be taken into account. Only when it has been demonstrated that the reactivity of the substance is low, ignition probabilities for low reactivity are applied. Combustible gases with low reactivity are methane, methyl chloride and ethyl chloride [RIVM]. Substances both toxic and combustible with low reactivity (ammonia, methyl bromide and carbon monoxide) are assessed as being pure toxic. Definitions BLEVE Group 0 Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapour Explosion Products which are in a gaseous state. The product is above the atmospheric boiling point or the atmospheric boiling point is lower than or equal to -25C. Products which are at or above their flashpoint, but below the atmospheric boiling point. E.g. P1 liquids Products which are at a temperature lower than 35C below the flashpoint. E.g. P2 liquids Products which are at a temperature which is 35C or more below the flashpoint. E.g. P3 and P4 liquids
Group 1
Group 2
Group 3
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Chapter 13:
References
[AI2009], Background Information - Appendix to Handbook Failure Frequencies 2009 for drawing up a safety report, LNE, Safety Reporting Division, 2009 [HBKC1994], Handboek Kanscijfers ten behoeve van het opstellen van een veiligheidsrapport, Ministry of the Flemish Community, LIN, AMINAL, Hazardous Substances and Risk Management Division, 1994 [HBKC2004], Handboek Kanscijfers voor het opstellen van een veiligheidsrapport, Ministry of the Flemish Community, LIN, AMINAL, Safety Reporting Division, 2004 [IEC1], IEC 61508: Functional Safety of electrical/electronic/programmable electronic safety-related systems [IEC2], IEC 61511: Functional safety Safety instrumented systems for the process industry sector [Prugh], Prugh, R,W, Evaluation of unconfined vapor cloud explosion hazards, Proc. International Conference Vapor Cloud Modelling, AIChE, NY, 1988 [RIVM], RIVM/CEV, Handleiding Risicoberekeningen BEVI, version 3.0, 1 January 2008 [SGS], SGS, TWOL project Actualisatie van de faalfrequenties in risicoberekeningen in Sevesobedrijven, end report, July 2007
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Colophon
This document is a translation in English of the Dutch Handboek Faalfrequenties 2009 voor het opstellen van een veiligheidsrapport. In case of inconsistencies or problems, the original language document shall take precedence over this translation.
Edited by
The Flemish Government Environment, Nature and Energy Department Environment, Nature and Energy Policy Unit Safety Reporting Division Graaf de Ferrarisgebouw Koning Albert II-laan 20 B-1000 Brussels
Published by
J.-P. Heirman, Secretary-General Environment, Nature and Energy Department
Deposit number
D/2009/3241/355
Edition
May 2009
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