Risks in Power Plant
Risks in Power Plant
Risks in Power Plant
(Eur Ing) David Irving has over twenty years experience in the
energy industry, the vast majority being spent with Mitsui Babcock,
and with most of his work having been associated with mechanical
integrity. In Mitsui Babcock he is mainly involved in the provision
of specialist technical services, aimed at assisting energy plant
operators plan and implement operations and maintenance strategies
to maximise plant life, optimise reliability and comply with
legislation (e.g. emissions, safety). He has also been involved in
negotiations for plant rehabilitation and upgrade projects. His
current position is Sales and Business Development Manager, with
particular responsibility in a number of technology based business
streams which address integrity issues throughout the thermal
power, nuclear and oil/gas sectors.
ABSTRACT
This paper describes how Mitsui Babcock, the UK based energy products, services
and business solutions provider, is assisting asset owners and operators to reduce
technical and commercial risks to their businesses. Examples are provided of work
being carried out to mitigate the risk of plant failure using design assessment, risk
based strategies, and physical testing. Information is included on how imaginative
commercial arrangements (such as self financing schemes) between engineering
contractors and asset owners/ operators, can contribute towards reducing business
risk.
1. INTRODUCTION
As commercial pressures on power plant operators increase, more attention is being
focussed on the measures which can be taken to manage and mitigate technical and
business risks.
Technical risk management tends to concentrate on the prevention of plant failures,
which can cause unscheduled downtime, safety incidents and loss of income. Actions
to minimise such threats typically comprise development of risk based maintenance
and inspection strategies, together with design and operation reviews, and analysis of
the likelihood and consequences of failure. Such analysis is often backed up by
detailed condition assessments and inspections, reviews of operation and maintenance
histories, and design (code based or by analysis e.g. finite element). Full scale
physical testing in controlled environments can also be appropriate when analytical
design does not provide sufficient reassurance that plant will operate reliably and
safely. The suitability of these strategies can vary depending on a number of factors
Risks in power plant OMMI (Vol. 1, Issue 3) December 2002 2
1. Pump life
2. Dew point corrosion
3. Common header dam
plate bending
4. Inadequate drains, failure
or control issues
5. Tube bank dry out/
vibration
6. Header cracking
7. Pipework Fatigue
1. GT
ramp
S
rates
2. EGT
3. Gas
1. Hot liner pin failures/ casing
leaks
2. Hot casing leaks
3. Expansion Joint stiction / leaks
1. Pipework Fatigue
2. Header cracking
3. Tube bank dry out/ vibration
4. Inadequate drains, failure or control
issues
Mitsui Babcock has developed a risk based approach to identify the aspects of the
plant which may require modification to ensure safe and reliable service during
periods of cyclic operation (Ref 2). Optimisation of operational procedures especially
during transients is also integrated into the assessment. Mitsui Babcock apply a health
check approach, which comprises a combination of reviewing the design, the
historical operating conditions, and the current condition. Table 1 shows a typical
likelihood and consequence analysis and Figure 3 provides an overview on a typical
power plant of how priorities can be presented, with certain issues being generic in
nature and others more plant specific.
This risk based approach has proved invaluable as a rationalisation and prioritisation
tool, ensuring resource is devoted to the areas which really are at risk. Owner
operators can use the results of this approach to plan their long term strategies for the
asset, while also minimising difficulty gaining insurance cover.
Likelihood Consequence
(L) (C)
Time Cost Safety/Performance/Life
High L>70% Immediate >$500K Plant failure and safety
Shutdown with risk. Unacceptable
up to 3 months component life
lost availability reduction
Medium 30%<L<70% Shutdown after >$100K Minimal plant safety
4 hrs One week risk. Some secondary
lost availability damage. Significant
component life
reduction
Low 10%<L<30% Minimal lost <$100K Little Effect on safety,
availability or performance and life.
continue
production with
additional
monitoring
Risks in power plant OMMI (Vol. 1, Issue 3) December 2002 5
Risks in power plant OMMI (Vol. 1, Issue 3) December 2002 6
Input Data
Risk
Figure 4: Consequence Model
Risks in power plant OMMI (Vol. 1, Issue 3) December 2002
The experimental reserve factors (the range resulting from the different weld
configurations) were far in excess of those calculated by code methods, which were of
the order of 0.6, which would have rendered the design unacceptable for continued
operation. The testing programme revealed how conservative the codes are, and that
localised yielding of the material does not necessarily constitute a loss of function.
The ductility of the reinforcement designs was shown to be a crucial factor in the fit
for purpose analysis, and although deflections were perceived to be high from visual
observation, the integrity and strength of the material was still acceptable.
Without the tests, justifying the risk to continue operation would probably not have
been possible. The costs associated with designing, building and running test rigs
were significant, but relatively small when compared to the implications on the future
of the power station.
Risks in power plant OMMI (Vol. 1, Issue 3) December 2002 11
which those involved are exposed. Close working relationships require the sharing of
commercial risk, confidentialities, joint objectives and investment into each others
businesses to ensure success.
The use of alliance relationships are fairly well established in the outage repair and
maintenance arena. The successful execution of an outage has a significant effect on
meeting statutory requirements of the industry inspectorate and maximising the
financial return from the asset through high availability and good performance. The
measures typically set in place to ensure the mutual aim of take the form of Key
Performance Indicators, where the contractors income is derived from factors such as
availability, quality, health and safety and programme. It is often the case that the
contractors profit element is solely based on such performance criteria. With plant
performance forming such a high proportion of this income, the contractor is
committed to sharing significant commercial risk and will do its utmost to ensure the
plant performance criteria are met. The development and management of target
costing on projects also results in the risk share principles being a mutual driver to
control costs.
Contractor’s risks can be brought about by factors outwith their control, particularly
when income is influenced by station performance. Even if the outage has been
executed as planned, external trading conditions or issues with plant not included in
the contractors scope can lead to a deterioration in performance, which then impinges
on the contractor’s income. One other risk to guard against is complacency which can
arise for very positive reasons i.e. the close working relationships between individuals
in each organisation. It is vital that the disciplines in authorising work and
maintaining quality standards are maintained, and that the enthusiasm from those
involved does not result in short cuts which could cause difficulties at a later time.
3.3 Added Value Projects
There are many aspects of day to day operations which can adversely affect financial
performance and can be construed a risk to the asset owners business. Such risks tend
not to be associated with catastrophic failure, but are of a more commercial nature.
They can arise from best practice during operation and maintenance of the asset not
being applied and because the asset is profitable, they can go unnoticed. In many
production facilities, often with a history of de-manning to meet business objectives,
personnel are fully occupied ensuring the facility either operates when required or is
ready to do so. The opportunity never seems to arise to consider how working
practices, or plant configurations could be altered to improve the business.
A step out in faith is therefore required, and in Mitsui Babcock experience, the
engineering contractor can be a catalyst for improving the respective businesses
through added value projects. The temporary secondment of technical personnel from
an external organisation is a means of addressing this difficulty. Selection of the
individual(s) is vital, because as well as being able to input ideas and knowledge,
success will hinge on personalities. Both the operator and the contractor have to be
willing to accept there is value in assigning suitable qualified engineers, on a value
added basis i.e. without direct responsibility to execute programmes of work (outages,
repairs, maintenance, statutory inspections), but with a remit to simply “to make
things better”.
As commercial pressures on operators increase, obtaining capital sanction for
improvement schemes becomes more difficult, particularly when the nature of the
Risks in power plant OMMI (Vol. 1, Issue 3) December 2002 15
improvement, no matter how well justified, falls outside the normal parameters to
gain internal approval. The concept of self financing schemes then becomes a more
attractive proposition as long as funding can be arranged. In return for finance from
external sources, such as the contractor, the operator sacrifices an agreed proportion
of the savings which the project generates.
With contractor personnel integrated into the operations group, ideas are developed
jointly for plant improvements, with an estimate of attendant benefits. The joint
decision as to whether or not a project is to proceed is based on an assessment of the
payback period and project risk, with both parties sharing the information on which to
base their decisions. The contractor’s profit is only provided from the shared actual
benefits after the costs have been recovered. The contract can be written to
incorporate an effective “no cure, no pay” type of agreement.
The major risk is with the contractor both in terms of financing employees to become
a member of the operations team site, and funding the cost of designing and
implementing the scheme. Operator risks effectively commences on implementation
of the project, when modifications to the asset could impinge on production.
Commitment from all parties is crucial at this stage to see the project through to
completion, despite short term inconvenience.
Mitsui Babcock has established an alliance with a major plant operator at a site where
several industrial scale boilers provide steam for process (approximately 300 T/h) and
power (approximately 20MW). The agreement is based on the cost utilisation of the
plant and uses a fundamental fuel in/steam out basis, with some other features to
accommodate the operators business drivers.
To date three projects have been implemented and successfully completed under the
partnering contract, these being:
• An existing, but unused feedwater heater was relocated to an operating
boiler which resulted in a reduction in fuel consumption by the boiler for
the same evaporation. The capital expenditure was incurred by Mitsui
Babcock with an estimated project payback of 3 years, the estimated added
value to the client is twice the original outlay based on a ten year project
life
• A tubular air heater was found to be in a poor state of repair with
significant leakage, and air bypassing the furnace reduced output from the
boiler, through fan restrictions. The air heater refurbishment allowed full
load to be achieved for the first time in many years and also allowed an
older, less efficient boiler to be disinvested. The benefits arising from this
project were due to the higher efficiency of boiler and the savings from not
having to maintain the older boiler. The capital expenditure was again
incurred by Mitsui Babcock with an actual project payback of 15 Months,
and the estimated added value to the operator over ten years is estimated to
be over three times the original capital cost.
• It was estimated that the manufacturing complex was potentially losing
money flaring excessive fuel gas production from the process. An
investigation by Mitsui Babcock found that the installation of new gas
burners on two boilers would significantly reduce the volume of excess
fuel gas produced. The project was a greater success than pre-installation
Risks in power plant OMMI (Vol. 1, Issue 3) December 2002 16
In Mitsui Babcock’s experience the benefit of each party seeking to ensure the
relationship is long term and working together through the inevitable difficulties has
been proved on several occasions. Figure 12 shows the financial profile of the
sootblower spares expenditure and manhours expended on plant at the 2000MW
Ferrybridge C coal fired station in England, where Mitsui Babcock provides
operational maintenance services (Ref 5). Over a period of four years, a cost reduction
of almost 60 % has been achieved on sootblower spares expenditure and over 20% on
manhours, with no adverse risk implications. This is not the result of any one major
change, but has arisen from continuity and flexibility of personnel, joint working to
improve maintenance and operating procedures, and acceptance of each parties
position on risk management. The ability to flex resources is a vital aspect, with risk
minimised by the contractor being able to dedicate resource when required, which is
not possible using the operators in house personnel. The alternative is for the operator
to supplement core personnel with contract labour, but the incentivisation does not
exist in such arrangements to encourage the proactive approach required for a culture
to improve the returns from the asset.
4. CONCLUSIONS
There are opportunities for the owners of power generation equipment to improve the
management and mitigation of technical and commercial risks to their businesses by
enlisting the skills of appropriate multi facetted engineering contractors. The
contractual arrangements can be established to encourage the contractor to share the
risks and to receive income which is related to the profitability of the asset.
The increased requirement of onerous operating regimes, such as frequent start ups
and shut downs, has highlighted the risk of forced outage of equipment originally
designed for more stable or base load operation. Risk based strategies for specialist
components can be relatively simple, but for high volume standard items, the risk
management process must provide a more detailed analysis of the consequences of
failure, and the potential risk of escalation.
When reviewing the suitability of designs for continued operation, code based design
standards are frequently conservative. Although viewed in some quarters as
prohibitively expensive, the implementation of a full scale laboratory testing
programme can mean the difference between an asset being granted a licence to
operate and being forced to either implement uneconomic remedial work, or cease
operation.
The identification of other risks to profitability brought about by assets not operating
to full capacity can be overcome by working with contractors, who are prepared to
commit resources and possibly finance, to implement improvement programmes. The
establishment of alliance partnerships during outages or major projects has become an
established aspect of the power generation business. There is greater overlap in
resultant risks to which each party is exposed when compared with traditional
contracting, and it is in the interests of the contractor to ensure the project succeeds, as
rewards are related to the profitability of the asset.
Seconding contractors’ engineers into the operators organisation on a value added
basis can provide the catalyst for improvement programmes, although selection of the
Risks in power plant OMMI (Vol. 1, Issue 3) December 2002 20
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The author wishes to thank the many colleagues who have contributed to the
preparation of this paper through their dedicated efforts and hard work during the
execution of the projects described. Several other colleagues contributed by sharing
their ideas based on their day to day experiences with Mitsui Babcock clients and
alliance partners, and the author is greatly indebted to them for their invaluable
assistance.
5. REFERENCES
1. J M Farley, J A Pugh, G McMillan & T Addie “Boiler Failure Mechanisms and
Damage Detection Techniques” Mitsui Babcock Internal Technical Report 1997.
2. D J Spalding “HRSG Plant – Risk Management for Flexibility – A Changing
Perspective” IIR Conference on Maintaining Reliable and Flexible CCGT Operation
Under NETA in London April 2002.
3. D H Mitchell “Technologies for Pipework Integrity Management” Mitsui Babcock
presentation at the opening of the company’s new Technology and Engineering
facility in Renfrew, Scotland. October 2001.
4. A V Holt “Code Compliance – An Alternative Approach for Plant in the Nuclear
Industry” British Institute of Nuclear Engineers Conference on Trends in Power Plant
Operation and Maintenance in Warrington, UK. November 2001.
5. M Frith & M Gee “New Approaches to Repair and Maintenance Contracts for a
more Flexible Service” IIR Conference on Operations and Maintenance Strategies in
London. November 2001.