Cotton Outlook
Cotton Outlook
Stephen MacDonald
stephenm@ers.usda.gov
Cotton and Wool Chart Gallery will be updated on December 16, 2013 The next release is January 14, 2014 (Tables only) -------------Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
Figure 1
75
50
25
Domestic
U.S. Cotton Crop Reduced Slightly in December
The USDA December forecast of the 2013 U.S. cotton crop was lowered marginally this month to approximately 13.1 million bales; the estimate is nearly 25 percent below the 2012 season, however. Lower area and a third consecutive year of drought in the Southwest region produced the smallest crop since 2009s 12.2 million bales. The harvested area estimate was unchanged in December at 7.8 million acres, the lowest in 4 years. The 2013 national yield is projected at 806 pounds per harvested acre, well below last seasons record of 887 pounds. Upland production is estimated at 12.4 million bales, 4.1 million bales below 2012, while the extra-long staple (ELS) crop is forecast at 626,000 bales, 20 percent below last season. For current production estimates by State and region, see table 10. Upland cotton production is expected to decline in each of the Cotton Belt regions this season as a result of lower area (fig. 2). The Southeast will likely be the largest producing region for the third consecutive season as a result of the drought in the Southwest, which has reduced harvested area and production there considerably. In the Southeast, cotton production in 2013 is estimated at 4.5 million bales, 24 percent below last season; the lower cotton crop is largely due to a yield (825 pounds per harvested acre) that is well below the record of 1,033 pounds per harvested acre achieved in 2012. For the Southwest, the upland crop is forecast at 4.3 million bales, 17 percent below 2012s 5.2 million bales. While the abandonment rate was similar to last seasons 41 percent, a lower 2013 area and yield (595 pounds per harvested acre) were responsible for the reduced crop that is 2 million bales below the 10-year average.
Figure 2
Southwest
West
In the Delta, production is only expected to approach 2.8 million bales this season as area was reduced to 1.2 million acres in 2013; the Delta crop would be the second smallest in three decades. However, the latest yield estimate of 1,104 pounds per harvested acre would be the second consecutive record for the region, if realized. In the West, upland production is forecast at 870,000 bales, down from last season and the 5-year average of 1.1 million bales. Area shifted out of upland cotton this season as only 286,000 acres were planted, compared with a 5-year average of 359,000 acres.
U.S. Demand and Stocks Forecast Unchanged; Farm Price Range Narrowed
U.S. cotton demand for the 2013/14 season is forecast at 14.0 million bales, unchanged from last month but 15 percent below 2012/13. U.S. cotton mill use based on data collected by USDAs Farm Service Agencyremains forecast at 3.6 million bales, up from last seasons 3.5-million-bale estimate. In contrast, U.S. cotton exports are forecast at only 10.4 million bales in 2013/14. Lower U.S. supply and reduced foreign import demandmainly due to lower projected imports by Chinaare expected to keep U.S. cotton exports at their lowest since 2000/01. The U.S. share of world trade is projected at only 27 percent, compared with the 5year average of 34 percent. With only minor changes to production this month, U.S. ending stocks remain forecast at 3.0 million bales, 900,000 bales below the beginning level. Both the stock level and the stocks-to-use ratioestimated at 21 percentwould be the lowest in 3 years. Based on the latest supply and demand outlook for 2013/14, the average upland cotton farm price is now forecast to range between 70 and 78 cents per pound, compared with the final 2012/13 price of 72.5 cents per pound.
International Outlook
Global Cotton Production To Decrease in 2013/14
World cotton production in 2013/14 is forecast at 116.8 million bales, 5 percent below the previous season as more profitable alternative crops reduced cotton area under cultivation (fig. 3). Global cotton area harvested is forecast at 33.0 million hectares, a decline of 4 percent from 2012/13. Considerable production declines for the United States and China more than offset smaller increases in a number of countries which are the result of improved yield expectations. The world cotton yield is forecast at 770 kg/hectare, similar to the previous 3-year average. For China, the worlds leading producer, cotton production is forecast to reach only 32 million bales in 2013/14, 3 million bales (9 percent) below 2012/13 and its smallest crop in 3 years. Chinas cotton area is estimated 5 percent lower this season and, at about 5.1 million hectares, would fall to its lowest since 2002/03. Yield is forecast at 1,380 kg/hectare, which is between the yield estimates of the previous two seasons. India and Pakistan are forecast to produce 29.0 million bales and 10.0 million bales, respectively, up approximately 2 percent and 8 percent from the previous year; yield is expected to rise in both countries in 2013/14 but remain below the world average. Cotton area is estimated lower this season in India while projected unchanged for Pakistan. Meanwhile, the cotton crop in Brazil that is planted in December and January is forecast to rise 23 percent to 7.4 million bales, the result of increased area and higher yield expectations.
Figure 3
Contact Information Leslie Meyer (U.S. cotton and textiles), (202) 694-5307, lmeyer@ers.usda.gov Stephen MacDonald (foreign cotton), (202) 694-5305, stephenm@ers.usda.gov Erma McCray (web publishing), (202) 694-5306, ejmccray@ers.usda.gov
Subscription Information Subscribe to ERS e-mail notification service at http://www.ers.usda.gov/subscribe-to-ers -e-newsletters.aspx to receive timely notification of newsletter availability. Printed copies can be purchased from the USDA Order Desk by calling 1-800-363-2068 (specify the issue number). To order printed copies of the five field crop newsletters cotton and wool, feed, rice, oil crops, and wheatas a series, specify series SUB-COR-4043.
Readers of ERS outlook reports have two ways they can receive an e-mail notice about release of reports and associated data. Receive timely notification (soon after the report is posted on the web) via USDAs Economics, Statistics, and Market Information System (which is housed at Cornell Universitys Mann Library). Go to http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/Mann Usda/aboutEmailService.do and follow the instructions to receive e-mail notices about ERS, Agricultural Marketing Service, National Agricultural Statistics Service, and World Agricultural Outlook Board products. Receive weekly notification (on Friday afternoon) via the ERS website. Go to http://www.ers.usda.gov/subscribeto-ers-e-newsletters.aspx and follow the instructions to receive notices about ERS outlook reports, Amber Waves magazine, and other reports and data products on specific topics. ERS also offers RSS (really simple syndication) feeds for all ERS products. Go to http://www.ers.usda.gov/rss/ to get started.
Data
Cotton and Wool Monthly Tables http://cms.ers.usda.gov/publications/cws-cottonand-wool-outlook/cws-13i.aspx#.UjcirT_8J8E Cotton and Wool Chart Gallery (http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/cotton-andwool-chart-gallery.aspx#.UguTC6z8J8E)
Related Websites
WASDE http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1194 Cotton Topics http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/crops/cotton-wool.aspx Cotton and Wool Outlook http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1281
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs and activities on the basis of race, color, national origin, age, disability, and where applicable, sex, marital status, familial status, parental status, religion, sexual orientation, genetic information, political beliefs, reprisal, or because all or a part of an individual's income is derived from any public assistance program. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (Braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact USDA's TARGET Center at (202) 720-2600 (voice and TDD). To file a complaint of discrimination, write to USDA, Director, Office of Civil Rights, 1400 Independence Avenue, SW, Washington, DC 20250-9410 or call (800) 795-3272 (voice) or (202) 720-6382 (TDD). USDA is an equal opportunity provider and employer. 6
Table 1--U.S. cotton supply and use estimates Item 2012/13 Oct. 2013/14 Nov. Dec.
Million acres Upland: Planted Harvested 12.076 9.135 NA NA 10.136 7.582 Pounds Yield/harvested acre 869 NA 790 788 10.136 7.582
Million 480-lb . b ales Beginning stocks Production Total supply 1/ Mill use Exports Total use Ending stocks 2/ 3.081 16.535 19.622 3.478 12.190 15.668 3.705 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 3.705 12.479 16.189 3.580 9.650 13.230 2.944 Percent Stocks-to-use ratio 23.6 NA 1,000 acres Extra-long staple: Planted Harvested 238.4 236.8 NA NA Pounds Yield/harvested acre 1,581 NA 1,510 1,510 201.0 198.8 201.0 198.8 22.3 22.3 3.705 12.443 16.153 3.580 9.650 13.230 2.944
1,000 480-lb . b ales Beginning stocks Production Total supply 1/ Mill use Exports Total use Ending stocks 2/ 269 780 1,053 22 836 858 195 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Percent Stocks-to-use ratio 22.7 NA 7.3 7.3 195 626 826 20 750 770 56 195 626 826 20 750 770 56
NA=Not available due to the partial Government shutdown. 1/ Includes imports. 2/ Includes unaccounted. Source: USDA, World Agricultural Outlook Board. Last update: 12/12/13.
Table 2--World cotton supply and use estimates Item 2012/13 Oct. 2013/14 Nov. Dec.
Million 480-lb . b ales Supply: Beginning stocks-World Foreign Production-World Foreign Imports-World Foreign Use: Mill use-World Foreign Exports-World Foreign Ending stocks-World Foreign
NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA Percent
83.8 82.9
NA NA
87.3 87.4
87.9 88.1
NA=Not available due to the partial Government shutdown. Source: USDA, World Agricultural Outlook Board. Last update: 12/12/13.
Table 3--U.S. fiber supply Item Aug. 2013 Sep. 2013 Oct. 2013 Oct. 2012
1,000 480-lb . b ales Cotton: Stocks, beginning Ginnings Imports since August 1 3,900 139 0.1 2,750 465 0.8 2,377 2,520 1.5 2,800 4,909 0.8
Million pounds Manmade: Production Noncellulosic Cellulosic Total since January 1 560.7 560.7 NA 4,289.5 554.5 554.5 NA 4,844.0 566.3 566.3 NA 5,410.3 536.2 536.2 NA 5,150.9
July 2013
Aug. 2013
Sep. 2013
Sep. 2012
Million pounds Raw fiber imports: Noncellulosic Cellulosic Total since January 1 156.9 143.7 13.2 1,082.5 166.8 153.6 13.2 1,249.4 152.2 139.7 12.5 1,401.6 145.8 133.2 12.6 1,401.0
1,000 pounds Wool and mohair: Raw wool imports, clean 48s-and-finer Not-finer-than-46s Total since January 1 Wool top imports Total since January 1 Mohair imports, clean Total since January 1 796.5 194.7 601.8 4,471.1 357.1 3,630.8 0.0 0.0 889.8 351.3 538.5 5,360.9 279.9 3,910.7 0.0 0.0 437.1 162.0 275.1 5,798.0 290.2 4,200.8 0.0 0.0 779.2 332.4 446.7 7,474.9 382.8 3,210.8 0.0 7.2
NA = Not available. Sources: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service; U.S. Dept. of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau; and Fib er Organon. Last update: 12/12/13.
Oct.
2013
Oct. 2012
1,000 480-lb . b ales Cotton: All consumed by mills 1/ Total since August 1 Daily rate Upland consumed by mills 1/ Total since August 1 Daily Rate Upland exports Total since August 1 Sales for next season Total since August 1 Extra-long staple exports Total since August 1 Sales for next season Total since August 1 321 321 14.6 319 319 14.5 912 912 143 143 55.6 55.6 0.0 0.0 July 2013 308 629 14.7 307 627 14.6 487 1,399 22 165 43.1 98.7 0.0 0.0 Aug. 2013 299 928 13.0 297 924 12.9 375 1,774 13 178 39.0 137.7 0.0 0.0 282 886 12.3 280 882 12.2 461 1,877 59 275 73.7 202.0 0.0 4.4 Sep. 2012
Sep.
2013
Million pounds Manmade: Raw fiber exports Noncellulosic Cellulosic Total since January 1 50.6 50.3 0.3 389.8 55.6 55.0 0.6 445.4 54.2 53.6 0.6 499.6 62.7 62.3 0.4 516.1
1,000 pounds Wool and mohair: Raw wool exports, clean Total since January 1 Wool top exports Total since January 1 Mohair exports, clean 940.1 6,212.2 189.7 1,386.1 63.9 1,058.2 7,270.4 222.8 1,608.9 58.2 496.3 7,766.7 152.3 1,761.2 53.1 573.2 5,829.1 117.5 603.7 32.5
Total since January 1 511.3 569.5 622.6 350.2 1/ Estimated by USDA. Sources: USDA, Farm Service Agency; USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Export Sales; U.S. Dept. of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau; and Fib er Organo Last update: 12/12/13.
Table 5--U.S. and world fiber prices Item Sep. 2013 Oct. 2013 Nov. 2013 Nov. 2012
Cents per pound Domestic cotton prices: Adjusted world price Upland spot 41-34 Pima spot 03-46 Average price received by upland producers Far Eastern cotton quotes: A Index Memphis/Eastern Memphis/Orleans/Texas California/Arizona 68.63 81.25 134.50 74.60 68.66 77.37 152.82 77.90 63.85 74.43 164.13 78.60 60.54 67.34 105.50 69.20
Dollars per pound Wool prices (clean): U.S. 56s Australian 56s 1/ U.S. 60s Australian 60s 1/ U.S. 64s Australian 64s 1/ NQ = No quote. 1/ In bond, Charleston, SC. Sources: USDA, Cotton Price Statistics ; Cotlook Ltd., Cotton Outlook; and trade reports. Last update: 12/12/13. NQ 3.58 NQ 5.07 NQ 5.17 NQ 3.67 NQ 5.40 NQ 5.45 NQ 3.42 NQ 5.25 NQ 5.37 NQ 3.95 NQ 5.19 NQ 5.42
Sep. 2013
Oct. 2013
Oct. 2012
1,000 pounds 1/ Yarn, thread, and fabric: Cotton Linen Wool Silk Manmade Apparel: Cotton Linen Wool Silk Manmade Home furnishings: Cotton Linen Wool Silk Manmade Floor coverings: Cotton Linen Wool Silk Manmade Total imports: 2/ Cotton Linen Wool Silk Manmade 243,337 55,219 16,668 4,026 542 166,882 235,545 51,803 15,779 3,445 572 163,946 246,435 55,666 20,482 3,997 501 165,788 227,250 50,955 16,732 3,639 538 155,386
1,127,527 1,076,704 601,452 568,794 8,528 7,844 37,535 37,868 8,528 7,961 471,484 454,237 277,115 136,873 1,235 360 542 138,105 66,549 8,105 16,420 10,026 1,675 30,324 256,236 121,257 1,196 317 250 133,216 60,017 6,943 14,173 9,149 1,830 27,921
1,066,602 1,036,343 593,804 568,854 7,965 8,548 35,838 35,968 8,336 8,036 420,658 414,938 290,872 146,816 1,055 370 218 142,413 68,629 8,703 16,249 10,613 1,987 31,077 245,631 120,991 842 332 157 123,309 55,258 6,575 12,800 7,922 1,491 26,470
1,714,569 1,628,827 801,885 748,999 42,851 38,992 51,952 50,788 10,935 10,614 806,945 779,434
1,672,916 1,564,768 805,224 747,583 45,752 38,921 50,822 47,867 11,042 10,221 760,075 720,176
1/ Raw-fiber equivalent. 2/ Includes headgear. Sources: USDA, Economic Research Service; and U.S. Dept. of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau. Last update: 12/12/13.
Sep. 2013
Oct. 2013
Oct. 2012
1,000 pounds 1/ Yarn, thread, and fabric: Cotton Linen Wool Silk Manmade Apparel: Cotton Linen Wool Silk Manmade Home furnishings: Cotton Linen Wool Silk Manmade Floor coverings: Cotton Linen Wool Silk Manmade Total exports: 2/ Cotton Linen Wool Silk Manmade 257,912 136,355 7,097 2,819 1,216 110,425 28,907 12,748 514 1,703 1,178 12,765 5,565 2,675 231 168 147 2,344 35,542 2,323 1,157 3,749 39 28,274 328,006 154,149 8,998 8,441 2,580 153,837 245,259 132,959 6,746 3,525 1,041 100,989 25,901 11,545 413 1,714 1,055 11,174 5,439 2,692 227 140 140 2,240 36,263 2,721 1,443 4,808 35 27,256 312,957 149,979 8,829 10,192 2,272 141,684 251,107 131,620 7,363 3,790 1,177 107,158 29,367 13,266 546 1,899 1,219 12,438 6,073 2,727 399 223 250 2,473 36,482 2,577 1,254 3,646 22 28,982 323,124 150,261 9,562 9,561 2,668 151,071 240,961 124,140 7,048 2,975 1,111 105,688 25,799 11,321 383 1,564 1,455 11,076 5,449 2,593 274 197 177 2,208 31,675 2,213 1,092 2,429 40 25,901 303,984 140,332 8,797 7,172 2,783 144,899
1/ Raw-fiber equivalent. 2/ Includes headgear. Sources: USDA, Economic Research Service; and U.S. Dept. of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau. Last update: 12/12/13.
Table 8--U.S. cotton textile imports, by origin Aug. Sep. Region/country 2013 2013
Oct. 2013
Oct. 2012
1,000 pounds 1/ North America Canada Costa Rica Dominican Republic El Salvador Guatemala Haiti Honduras Mexico Nicaragua South America Brazil Colombia Peru Europe Germany Italy Portugal Turkey Asia Bahrain Bangladesh Cambodia China Hong Kong India Indonesia Israel Japan Jordan Malaysia Pakistan Philippines South Korea Sri Lanka Taiwan Thailand Vietnam Oceania Africa Egypt Kenya Lesotho Mauritius World 2/ 142,449 2,868 365 6,035 18,784 9,596 11,025 25,913 49,816 18,039 4,549 245 1,861 2,378 19,323 1,176 1,785 3,065 9,976 619,568 1,186 58,275 20,251 286,090 1,161 63,704 30,590 573 1,072 5,326 3,346 69,016 3,936 5,676 8,309 2,638 7,855 49,105 25 15,971 7,377 2,580 3,697 981 801,885 144,791 2,945 492 5,692 19,969 8,070 13,794 28,167 46,460 19,194 4,109 183 1,814 2,076 13,502 1,155 1,047 1,971 6,786 571,520 1,290 44,745 22,732 275,737 1,134 61,375 21,061 726 991 4,493 3,291 59,066 4,037 5,527 7,817 2,109 7,498 46,575 30 15,046 7,727 2,455 2,652 976 748,999 142,854 2,367 343 5,543 20,770 9,926 11,068 26,795 50,248 15,776 4,372 221 1,815 2,291 19,024 1,246 1,665 1,896 11,070 621,855 1,062 54,344 23,414 268,202 1,973 76,381 31,911 736 1,141 4,777 2,841 72,087 4,264 5,598 9,763 2,660 6,604 52,540 99 17,021 8,361 2,373 3,850 1,170 805,224 150,234 3,190 997 6,130 19,875 9,110 13,998 28,880 48,699 19,353 4,670 102 1,871 2,645 16,493 918 1,346 1,004 10,266 560,436 1,357 39,244 24,959 261,331 796 57,443 30,763 553 1,044 3,469 3,105 58,613 5,290 5,827 6,844 2,633 6,867 49,106 12 15,738 8,502 2,552 2,221 1,102 747,583
1/ Raw-fiber equivalent. 2/ Totals may not add due to rounding. Sources: USDA, Economic Research Service; and U.S. Dept. of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau. Last update: 12/12/13.
Table 9--U.S. cotton textile exports, by destination Aug. Sep. Region/country 2013 2013
Oct. 2013
Oct. 2012
1,000 pounds 1/ North America Bahamas Canada Costa Rica Dominican Republic El Salvador Guatemala Haiti Honduras Jamaica Mexico Nicaragua Panama South America Brazil Chile Colombia Peru Venezuela Europe Belgium France Germany Italy Netherlands Russia Turkey United Kingdom Asia China Hong Kong India Israel Japan Pakistan Saudi Arabia Singapore South Korea Taiwan United Arab Emirates Oceania Australia Africa South Africa World 2/ 134,248 260 12,143 266 22,215 11,565 2,350 772 48,808 95 32,728 2,275 397 5,281 397 203 2,416 1,444 494 3,385 349 149 539 183 422 111 90 1,008 10,042 6,677 412 173 95 943 48 145 174 468 115 189 852 654 341 102 154,149 132,580 152 11,607 202 23,782 8,509 2,502 876 52,640 105 29,636 1,752 262 5,903 437 130 3,154 1,504 382 3,118 298 139 499 169 315 131 80 995 7,207 4,041 358 128 62 1,056 30 76 105 470 124 316 764 603 407 67 149,979 128,843 125 12,955 325 20,493 9,757 2,589 580 47,156 61 31,716 2,225 463 5,541 470 118 3,116 1,009 452 3,245 398 137 537 170 324 63 36 1,092 11,539 7,838 610 160 86 847 5 119 209 492 132 190 725 515 367 95 150,261 120,071 98 9,679 342 20,585 10,279 2,553 761 46,161 80 26,663 1,931 346 3,656 463 440 1,457 384 541 2,855 209 107 475 168 394 51 79 989 12,591 8,898 344 162 143 844 61 141 283 427 139 329 783 632 376 59 140,332
1/ Raw-fiber equivalent. 2/ Totals may not add due to rounding. Sources: USDA, Economic Research Service; and U.S. Dept. of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau. Last update: 12/12/13.
Table 10--Acreage, yield, and production estimates, 2013 State/region Planted Harvested Yield Pounds/ -- 1,000 acres -harvested acre Upland: Alabama 365 363 767 Florida 130 123 780 Georgia 1,360 1,335 845 North Carolina 465 460 856 South Carolina 255 253 721 Virginia 78 77 972 Southeast 2,653 2,611 825 Arkansas Louisiana Mississippi Missouri Tennessee Delta Kansas Oklahoma Texas Southwest Arizona California New Mexico West Total Upland Pima: Arizona California New Mexico Texas Total Pima Total all 305 130 300 250 250 1,235 27 185 5,750 5,962 155 93 38 286 10,136 300 125 295 241 235 1,196 26 170 3,300 3,496 153 92 34 279 7,582 1,232 1,267 1,188 976 878 1,104 683 565 596 595 1,616 1,461 1,059 1,497 788
Production 1,000 b ales 580 200 2,350 820 380 156 4,486 770 330 730 490 430 2,750 37 200 4,100 4,337 515 280 75 870 12,443
Source: USDA, December 2013 Crop Production report. Last update: 12/12/13.