G5 defection and 2015 permutation

Our Reporter December 16, 2013 2 Comments

The recent defection of five aggrieved governors of

the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), coupled with
the merger of the so-called new PDP with the All
Progressives Congress (APC), seemed to have
changed the nations political permutation ahead of
2015 general election.
In this piece, Chinelo Obogo examines the likely
scenario that might lead to the ruling party losing
the presidential election to the opposition for the
first time in Nigeria.
With the defection of the new PDP members
including five of the seven aggrieved PDP governors
to the APC, the battle for 2015 presidential election
may be affected significantly. The aggrieved
governors are of Rivers, Kano, Kwara, Adamawa,
and Sokoto states,
That may also mark an interesting turn in the
democratic and electoral evolution in Nigeria. And if
the political scenario playing out now subsists till
2015, with one man, one vote, President Goodluck
Jonathans return to Aso Rock may not be a tea
party.
There is no doubt that the much touted biggest
party in Africa is badly broken with its popularity
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rating dropping as the country marches toward

2015. As it stands now, history may be made which
will see the ruling party contend with a reversal of
role in the political configuration of the country in
2015.
Even, the shock expressed by the National Chairman
of the PDP, Alhaji Bamanga Tukur, over the matter
was instructive going by the party leaderships initial
complacency. The leadership that could not see the
justification in the action of the governors despite
the complacent disposition of the presidency and the
party, thought the aggrieved five governors
and members of the New PDP went rather too far by
defecting to the opposition APC, at a time it was
viewed that the doors to negotiations and dialogue
were still very much open.
However, the governors had taken a major and bold
step by calling the bluff of the PDP leadership and
the presidency and they appear determined to take
their destiny in their hands. What is crystal clear is
that the real game has begun for 2015 as a result of
a wrongly handled crisis by the PDP leadership.
The current scenario in the party now has compelled
political watchers to start analysis on the likely
political and electoral equation that may evolve in
due course.

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It will suffice to have a look at how it was in the

2011 presidential election which seemed to have
formed the basis of the analysts projection in favour
of the PDP ahead of 2015. It is on record that, in the
2011 presidential election, President Goodluck
Jonathan of the PDP polled 22,495,187 votes as
against General Muhammadu Buhari of the defunct
Congress for Progressive Change (CPCs) 12,214,853
votes. The difference in their margin was
10,280,334 votes which gave PDPs Jonathan victory
against Buhari, despite his (Buharis) outstanding
performance in the North.
While Jonathan obtained the required 25 per cent in
33 out of the 36 states including the Federal Capital
Territory (FCT), Buhari also had 25 per cent,
however in 17 of the 36 states.
In the breakdown, Buharis strongholds were as
follows: North-west- Jigawa: 663,994; Kaduna:
1,334,244; Kano: 1,624,543; Katsina: 1,162,919;
Kebbi: 501,453; Sokoto: 540,769 and Zamfara:
624,515. The total votes cast from here was put at
6,453,437. In the North-east, the breakdown isBorno: 909,763; Yobe: 143,179; Bauchi: 1,315,209;
Gombe: 459,898; Adamawa: 344,526 and Taraba:
257,986 while the total was 3,430,561. The total
votes cast from the two zones was 9,883,998.
However, President Jonathans strongholds were
identified as South-south and South-east. Here is
the breakdown of his votes in the last election:
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South-south- Edo: 542,173; Delta: 1,378,851;

Rivers: 1,817,762; Cross River: 709,382; Akwa
Ibom: 1,165,629 and Bayelsa: 504,811. The total
was 6,118,608. In the South-east, the state-bystate votes were Anambra: 1,145,169; Abia:
542,173; Ebonyi: 480,592; Enugu: 802,144 and
Imo: 1,190,179. The total vote cast in South-east
was 4,160,179 while the total for both zones was
10,278,865.
Coming to the South-west zone which is
predominantly an APC terrain, here is the picture of
the 2011 presidential election in the zone. Lagos:
1,281,688; Ogun: 309,177; Oyo: 484,758; Osun:
188,409; Ekiti: 135,009 and Edo: 542,173. The
South-west and Edo total came to a total of
2,941,214. Even with this, the PDP will reckon that
it still left the party with some 3,163,635 vote
advantage.
And since election in the North would be influenced
by religious considerations, the anti-Jonathan
sentiments would obviously be heightened in the
2015 election than they did in 2011 because of the
clamour by a section of the northern leaders that
power should return to their zone in 2015. They also
reckoned that the effect on the outcomes of the
total votes cast would be less than 15 per cent. But
that, other analysts, thought was no longer correct
with the latest development. On the contrary, they
thought it would be more debilitating.
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While they were of the view that Jonathans total

votes in the North-west might be reduced by more
than 50 per cent compared to what obtained in
2011, it was also the analysts calculation that the
total votes from the North-east might be reduced by
about 20 or 30 per cent. They reckoned high voter
apathy because of the devastating effects of the
Boko Haram insurgency, which according to them
might affect the APC more than the PDP.
This, they said, was because the traditional societal
strongholds who voted the PDP in the 2011 election
were mainly the few Christian communities (30% in
Yobe, 20-25% in Borno, over 60% in Adamawa and
Taraba). They are probably going to be motivated
against a Muslim candidate since their survival
would depend on a Christian leadership at the
centre. Overall, in the two zones, they were of the
view that while the fortunes of the president might
reduce significantly in the North-west, he could
make up for it in the North-east.
But that calculation, however may not be tenable,
especially with the increasing depletion in the ranks
of the PDP. It is true that the effect of the Boko
Haram would play defining roles, ultimately to the
disadvantage of the president believed not to have
handled the situation very well. Familiar excuses will
also not be tenable, considering the fact that PDP
has been in power for unbroken 14 years.
The president, some political watchers thought
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would do very well in Kaduna. But that would

depend largely on Vice President Namadi Sambos
political hold or influence in his state.
However, since the middle belt is believed to hold
the key to electoral success in the North, it would be
viewed that it would act as a buffer and might
actually neutralize an APC lead in the North-west
and North-east zones. But it is yet to be seen how a
Jonathans PDPs comfortable lead in the middle belt
would neutralize the votes from North-west and
North-east.
The presidents men might be very confident about
their showing in the South-east, all things being
equal. The Governor Rochas Okorocha factor, they
said, might not go beyond his state of Imo and
might be unable to deliver presidential victory to the
APC in Imo. Ironically, events of the last few months
have shown that Okorocha has consolidated and may
have improved in rating and can, therefore be a
strong APC force to reckon with in 2015.
It is also certain that more dissidents and
disgruntled elements like the Rivers State Governor,
Rotimi Amaechi, might adversely affect the votes in
the South-south significantly. The pro-Jonathan may
have believed that if adequate steps were taken, the
president might still get away with over 80 per cent
of total votes cast in the zone. The pro-APC
enthusiasts also believe that with a little more
efforts, the party would also make impressive
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inroads into the supposed comfort zones of the

president to decimate the zone electorally.
In spite of the initial dismissal, forecasters must
have come to the conclusion that the South-west
would be a major battleground for obvious reasons .
They bank on the fact that if the mainstream Yoruba
voters were pacified and sufficiently mobilised, they
might not vote the APC candidates in the
presidential election. Worst case scenario, they
reckoned, a 50:50 split of the votes to the
advantage of the PDP.
However, observers believe that except the APC
leadership cuts a deal like it did in 2011, the zone is
an outright no-go-area for the PDP, regardless of
whatever was done to cushion the effect of the
alleged neglect of Yoruba nation by the Jonathan
presidency.
In the final analysis, while Pro-PDP men are holding
the view that the present over- publicized political
animosity in the PDP by the opposition would not
translate into electoral victory for the APC, they
reckon that the inherent contradictions within the
APC would most likely tear the party apart even
before the 2015 elections.
And obviously counting on the issue of candidacy
which could make or mar the opposition, the PDP
strategists may believe that because of its relative
newness and supposed lack of solid structures, the
APC may not survive any major crisis before the
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elections.
While one expects both constructive and structural
strategy that can demystify the subsisting equation,
it is clear, however that, the current scenario,
baring an unforeseen circumstance, is a game
changer that is difficult to discountenance, at least,
at this point for now and sometime to come.
The equation, of course, remains fluid and would
keep changing for now. What is not controvertible is
that the calculations for the 2015 presidential
election would begin to assume shape from 2014
when more defining changes are expected to
manifest on the political horizon.

2015: PDP governors defection as game changer

by webmaster on Dec 12, 2013 | No comments
FELIX NWANERI writes on the likely impact of the
defection of five governors of the ruling Peoples Democratic
Party, PDP, to the All Progressives Congress, APC, in the
2015 presidential election.
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Nigerians are in for interesting times as the buil d up to the 2015

elections particularly that for the presidency hots up, given the
maneuverings by the leading political parties and other interest
groups across the country.
Already, some political leaders in the North have stepped up
their agitation for the return of power to their region, even as
the incumbent president, Goodluck Jonathan, who hails from the
South-South zone, has the constitutional right to vie for a second
term.
But, beyond the Norths clamour, which is based on the zoning
agreement of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, and
the Presidents second term bid, which many believe will have
effect on the outcome of the poll, there are other factors that will
definitely play significant roles in deciding the next occupant of
the Presidential Villa.
One of such factors, no doubt is the recent defection of five of
the seven PDP aggrieved governors to the All Progressives
Congress, APC.
The governors Rabiu Kwankwaso (Kano), Aliyu Wamakko
(Sokoto), Abdulfatah Ahmed (Kwara), Murtala Nyako
(Adamawa) and Chibuike Amaechi (Rivers), dumped the PDP
over alleged high handedness of the Bamanga Tukur-led
leadership of the party.
While many had initially contented that the defection will be
mainly felt in the legislative and governorship elections th an the
presidential poll, emerging trends in the polity shows that the
real battle would be the presidency.
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Even the leadership of the PDP, which was quick to dismiss the
action of the governors as of no consequence, has
inadvertently admitted that it is something to worry about.
The Chairman, Board of Trustees, BoT, of the party, Chief Tony
Anenih, who described the defection as a big threat to the party,
said it was a sad development that the five governors left the
party.
He said: Indeed, I had expected the governors to stay on in the
party which offered them a unique opportunity to serve their
people. Surprisingly, they decided to abandon their home and
platform to take up tenancy in an opposition party even when it
was apparent that the effort of Mr. President for a genuine
reconciliation was enough for them to see good reason to show
restraint and understanding.
The President, who also said the action of the governors would
not hamper the success of PDP in future elections, was however
emphatic at the weekend, when he said in an interview he
granted shortly before leaving Paris after the two -day summit on
peace and security in Africa hosted by President Francois
Hollande of France, that the PDP would prefer having the
governors back.
We want those governors to come back to PDP, but in an event
where some of them feel that it is better outside, they can also go
and try. If they are leaving, we will work harder to make sure
that we get more supporters so that at the end of the day, that
equilibrium will be maintained, Jonathan said.
Why would the PDP, which prides itself as the largest political
party in Africa, be jittery over the defection of just five men?
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Many have asked. The answer could not be far from the fact that
the partys bigwigs like Anenih, who is a master of the game,
knows that politics is dynamic, as the scale and balance of power
tends to be tilting to the opposition ahead of 2015.
Former Lagos State governor and leader of the APC, Asiwaju
Bola Tinubu, who belongs to the political school of thought that
holds such view, recently averred that the alliance between the
PDP governors and the opposition is one that will change
Nigerias political landscape.
He said: Nigerias political landscape has changed. It will
change forever and change for good. The scale and balance of
power is tilting and changing to the opposition. We are moving
from imperialism to proper democracy.
This development will start reshaping the landscape of politics
in this country forever. Not for us only but for generation
unborn, the future of this country to take its position as a leader
in Africa and not just a well populated country that is big and
directionless.
Tinubu is one man whose political sagacity cannot be ignored,
but the Presidents camp has dismissed his submission. However,
analysts have contended that the defection of the governors,
except for those who have chosen to see it differently and for
obvious reasons, has surely depleted the rank of the PDP with
APC being the beneficiary.
As it stands, the PDP now controls 18 states against the 23 it
had before the defection. The APC has 16, while the All
Progressives Grand Alliance, APGA and Labour Party, LP, have
one state apiece. Initially, the APC had 11 states in its kitty after
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the merger of the Action Congress of Nigeria, ACN, (six), All

Nigeria Peoples Party, ANPP, (three); Congress for Progressive
Change, CPC, (one) and a faction of APGA (one).
The ruling partys fortune is expected to further diminish except
it gets its house in order before the elections, as there are
speculations that the two remaining members of the aggrieved
governors Sule Lamido (Jigawa) and Babangida Aliyu (Niger)
are expected to jump ship in January.
It is believed in some quarters that though the duo have declared
that they will remain in the PDP to salvage the party, they are
obviously staying back to play the spoiler before joining their
colleagues in the APC.
Should this happen, the APC will then have 18 governors, while
the PDP would be left with 16, and it would be a test of strength
between the President and the rebel governors, who all along
had insisted that Jonathan respects the single term agreement
he entered with them in 2011.
For instance, in Adamawa State, where Nyako calls the shot, it
would be seen how political gladiators like Tukur, Prof. Jibril
Aminu and former Governor Boni Haruna (who has returned to
the PDP) will deliver the state to the President.
No doubt, the PDP has controlled the state since 1999, but in the
2011 presidential election, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari (then of the
CPC) made a strong showing with 344,526 (37.6 per cent) votes
against President Jonathans 508,314 (56 per cent).
It is belived that now that Nyako has dumped the PDP for the
APC with his many loyalists, the opposition is like ly to have the
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upper hand, as it is unlikely that even Tukur and others left will
come together and work for the PDP.
Same scenario is likely to play out in Rivers State. This oil -rich
state will definitely be a battle ground in the 2015 polls and the
presidential election would be a test of strength between
President Jonathan and Governor Amaechi. Both men have been
locked in a supremacy battle that has polarized the state PDP.
Though Jonathan comes from neighbouring Bayelsa, Amaechi
has the potential to swing enough votes for the APC despite the
belief among stakeholders in the South-South zone that the
Presidents second term bid should be supported by all in the
region.
Jonathan polled 1.8 million votes (96.9 per cent) against
Buharis 13, 182 (0.7 per cent) in the state in the 2011
presidential election, but given Amaechis popularity and the
fact that majority of elected public office holders in the state are
on his side, the APC is likely to turn the table in the 2015 polls.
The challenge then is on Nyesom Wike, the Supervising Minister
of Education, and other PDP gladiators to proof their acclaimed
control of the political structure and direction of the state in
2015.
Kano is another state which the PDP is sure to lose with the
defection of Governor Kwankwaso. The party, like in 2003, 2007
and 2011 will surely lose the presidential election in Kano in
2015. The state has over three million voters.
The PDP governed the state between 1999 and 2003 through
Kwankwaso while Ibrahim Shekarau of the ANPP ruled between
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2003 and 2011 until the return of Kwankwaso in 2011, but in a

free and fair contest, the APC is sure of winning the state in
2015.
In the 2011 poll, Buhari polled 1.6 million (59.1 per cent) votes
against Jonathans 440, 666 (16.01 per cent) while Shekarau,
who contested on the ANPPs platform, polled 526, 310 (19.7 per
cent) votes. It is against this backdrop that analysts believe that
nothing spectacular is expected of the PDP in the state, in 2015.
Like Kano, Kwara is also expected to go the APC way, as the
Olusola Saraki dynasty, which has for long decided the political
equation in the state has pitched tent with the APC.
The scion of the Saraki family, Bukola, is one of the arrowheads
of the New PDP that defected to the APC and Governor Ahmed
owes his emergence as governor to the younger Saraki, who is a
former governor of the state and now senator representing
Kwara Central. Except for a miracle, the PDP may not make any
serious impact in the 2015 elections in Kwara State.
It would be recalled that the defunct ACN now APC gave the
PDP a serious challenge in the 2011 elections. And with the
fusion of the forces in both parties, Kwara will surely go the way
of APC in 2015. In the 2011 poll, Jonathan secured 268, 243
(60.93 per cent) of the 435, 359 total votes cast while Buharis
CPC polled 83, 603 (19.20 per cent) votes and ACNs Nuhu
Ribdu secured 52,432 votes.
Governor Wamakko is also believed to have the capability to
sway votes in his state (Sokoto) to his new party the APC,
though Buhari defeated Jonathan in the state by 540,769 to
309,057 votes in the last election.
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And while Governors Lamido and Aliyu have declared that they
will stay put in the PDP, it is doubtful if they will be committed
to the re-election bid of President Jonathan in 2015.
Even in the 2011 presidential election, Buhari defeated Jonathan
in Jigawa with 663,994 votes against 419,252. The same played
out in Niger State, as the PDP lost the 2011 presidential election
in the state even with Aliyu. Buhari polled 652,574 votes to
defeat Jonathan who secured 321, 429 votes.
These political calculations and the fact that the South -West,
which gave the President overwhelming support in the 2011 poll
will vote enmasse for the APC in 2015, leaves analysts with the
conviction that the PDP, a centrist party that has dominated the
countrys political space since the return to civil rule in 1999,
may likely take the back stage after the 2015 elections.

This is a PDP paid writter, you forgot the Buhari got

his 12million votes without a single Governor,
senator, member or even councillor. You forgot to
mention that today his party has 16 governors, 58
senators, 181 members and many chairmen and
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councillors at his disposal. You also predicted in the

past that APC will not be formed because Buhari and
Tinubu will never come together but you are
shamed; You said INEC which is an extension of the
PDP corrupt govenment will register APC but you are
shamed; You predicted that when they come to elect
leaders they will fight and disentigarate but you are
shamed; they reckon that the inherent
contradictions within the APC would most likely tear
the party apart even before the 2015 elections; you
will be shamed,the APC may not survive any major
crisis before the elections, You will be shamed. Mr
writter, you better wake up to the reality, APC is on
the way to ASO rock. No amount of calculaions and
permutations will change what God has ordained.
simple.

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