Oil Security Index

Oil
Security
Index
october 2013
Oil
Secu
Index
Oil Security Index
Copyright 2013 Securing Americas Future Energy (SAFE). The statements and data expressed in this report reflect the views of SAFE.
Although the authors and endorsers of this report have used their best efforts in its preparation, they assume no responsibility for any errors or
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table of contents
Introducing the Oil Security Index
Understanding Oil Security
Metrics and Findings
Country Rankings
16
Global Results and Trends
18
Japan
20
United Kingdom
22
Canada
24
Germany
26
United States
28
Spotlight on the United States
30
South Africa
34
Australia
36
Brazil
38
China
40
Mexico
42
India
44
Russia
46
Saudi Arabia
48
Acknowledgments
50
Oil Security Index
Introducing the Oil Security Index

The Oil Security Index is an analytical tool developed by Securing Americas Future
Energy (SAFE) in partnership with Roubini Global Economics (RGE). The Index is
designed to be an intuitive tool for policymakers, business leaders, and the general
public to easily measure and compare the relative oil security of more than a dozen
countries around the world.
The term oil security can mean different things to

different countries. For someparticularly those
almost exclusively reliant on importsphysical
supply security takes precedence over nearly any
other measure. A major oil-production outage in a
key supplier can result in steep inventory draws over
a period of several months. This was the case for
much of Europe during the Libyan Civil War in 2011.
For other countries, physical supplies may be more
dependable, but overall dependence on oil and inefficient use of oil leave their economies exposed to
high and volatile oil prices. This is arguably the case
for the United States, where oil price shocks remain
a serious concern in spite of falling import levels.
The Oil Security Index uses

seven metrics that capture the
three aspects of oil security
To develop a comparable, quantitative measure
of oil security, the Index uses seven metrics that
capture the three aspects of oil security: the structural dependency of a countrys economy on oil, a
countrys economic exposure to the price of oil and
changes in this price, and the security of a countrys
oil supplies. Taken together, this comprehensive
set of indicators provides a robust assessment
of a countrys relative vulnerability to changing
conditions in the global oil market. In this iteration
of the Index, the following countries are ranked;
Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Germany, India,
Japan, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa,

the United Kingdom, and the United States.
The rankings and results for the Index overall and its
individual metrics are intended to be compared and
tracked over time. In addition, a numerical result is
derived for the United States overall and for each of
its seven metrics from the year 2000 to the present
day. Complementing these quantitative measures
is a qualitative assessment of the long-term prospects for each country included in the Index. Future
updates of the Index will include these quantitative
and qualitative components as well as a review of
relevant market and policy developments. Quarterly
data is used to construct the results and rankings and
is shown historically from Q1 2000. All data and analysis are also presented in an interactive online tool.
It is important to understand what this Index does
and does not provide. The Index does not provide a
raw score for all countries evaluated that could be
used to track an individual countrys absolute level
of oil security. In large part, this is because the indicators used to develop the Index are not easily comparable and do not lend themselves to being rolled
into a single composite score. Instead, the Index
provides a countrys ranking for each indicator and
an overall ranking. That is, the Index is best viewed
as providing a relative comparison of oil security of
multiple countries over time.
Oil Security Index
The Index measures oil security across three

categories comprising seven metrics:
Structural Dependency
Definition: a countrys structural dependence on oil
due to capital stock and other economic factors. A
countrys structural dependency metrics typically
change slowly over time, providing relatively consistent measures of vulnerability regardless of prevailing price conditions.
Oil Intensity captures the volume of oil consumed
per unit of GDP (in this case, per $1,000 of GDP).
As such, oil intensity is a direct measure of the
structural importance of oil in a countrys economy
and is perhaps the most meaningful measurement
of oil dependence. Oil intensity changes little over
short time periods and is almost entirely determined by oil-use efficiency levels, fuel diversity,
and economic growth.
Fuel Consumption Per Capita uses the size of a
countrys population, as opposed to the size of its
economy, to contextualize oil consumption. This
measure can be useful in comparing the different
levels of oil consumption of countries with vastly different population sizes or GDPs. Fuel consumption
per capita can give insight into a countrys level of oil
efficiency or its future oil demand growth potential.
Economic Exposure
Definition: a countrys direct economic exposure to
oil price volatility. Economic exposure is of course a
function of structural dependency, but it is also more
heavily driven by exogenous changes in global oil
prices, and therefore variable over time. Economic
exposure is measured by spending on oil across typical indicators like GDP and the current account.
Total Spending on Oil as a Percentage of GDP is the
most straightforward measurement of a countrys
economic exposure to oil. Changes in oil prices have
direct effects on the ability of governments, businesses, and consumers to effectively plan, budget,
and make expenditures from quarter to quarter. A
countrys transportation sector is particularly sensitive to changes in oil prices, as oil is the predominant
fuel in the sector and there are few substitutes

(demand is therefore highly inelastic).
Total Spending on Net Oil Imports as a Percentage
of GDP shows the extent to which Index countries
rely on imported oil. This indicator provides a measurement of revenue either earned or spent through
the oil trade and, therefore, oils effect on a countrys
current account balance.
Oil Exports as a Percentage of Total Exports by
Value highlights the degree to which the economies of
oil-producing countries are dependent on oil revenues
for economic growth. In other words, oil dependence
should be evaluated not only in terms of an economys
consumption requirements, but also its production
and export requirements. Just as oil price spikes are
devastating for many consumers, oil price collapses
are highly problematic for non-diversified producers.
Supply Security
Definition: a countrys vulnerability to physical supply disruptions and its response capabilities. While
supply disruptions are typically addressed by the
market through changes in prices, the adjustment
period can be highly damaging for import-dependent nations, especially if adequate emergency inventories are unavailable.
Oil Supply Security is a proxy for the risk of disruption to a countrys oil supply in both the short term
(e.g., political instability) and long term (e.g., tax and
regulatory schemes). This metric accounts for the
differences in risk between the different types of
supplies that a country relies upon to meet its needs
(in some instances, both domestic production and
imports from a selection of other countries).
Total Oil Stockholdings as a Percentage of Consumption indicates how prepared a country is to
meet its own short-term needs in the event of a
physical disruption. Total stocks include commercial
inventories (held by companies) and public stocks
(held by governments).
Oil Security Index
Understanding Oil Security

Oil is a critical economic input and holds a larger share of total global primary energy
consumption33 percentthan any other individual energy source.
Crude oil and its numerous derivative fuels play a vital

role in the economy of nearly all countries around
the world, both developed and developing, across a
variety of end-use sectors.1 And while petroleum fuels
serve a variety of functions, no sector relies more
heavily on oil than transportation, where products
like gasoline and diesel account for more than 90
percent of delivered energy.2
Historically, petroleum fuel demand growth is highly
correlated with economic growth, rising income
levels, and expanding transportation infrastructure. In developed countries and regions like North
America, Western Europe, and industrialized Asia,
oil demand grew rapidly in the post-World War II
era of economic growth. Millions of drivers took to
the road and transport of consumer goods became
increasingly important. This dynamic has remained
remarkably consistent. Emerging countries today are
following a similar pattern, taking up oil-reliant transportation options much more readily than any other
alternatives.3 As a result, all economies have become
(to various degrees) vulnerable.
Characteristics of the Global Oil Market

The balance between global oil supply and demand
has tightened sharply over the past decade, largely
due to a rapid increase in oil demand from emerging
markets and a supply system that is heavily reliant
on unstable oil-producing countries and regions.
The result has been an escalation of oil prices to
record highs and a dramatic increase in oil price
volatility, which have in turn caused substantial economic turmoil globally.
1
2
3
BP, plc., Statistical Review of World Energy (Statistical Review) 2013,

at 41
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Annual Energy Review
(AER) 2011, Table 2.1e
Emerging countries refers to all non-OECD countries
It is important to understand the key features of the

global oil market that have driven high and volatile
oil prices. Most notably, incremental investment in
low-cost oil supplies is highly constrained by a set
of anti-competitive forces that undermine efficiency
and flexibility. By some estimates, as much as 85
percent of global proved conventional oil reserves
are held by state-run national oil companies (NOCs).4
While many NOCs operate at the frontier of industry
technological capability and efficiency, others do not,
and are often hamstrung by government interference.
Nearly all NOCs function essentially as instruments
of a central government, and revenues generated by
resource production are allocated by political leadership. This often results in the diversion of oil revenues
to political and social programs rather than activities
that promote oil production.
In addition, the majority of the worlds most resourcerich NOCs are members of a producers cartel, the
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
(OPEC). Together, OPECs 12 members control more
than 70 percent of global oil reserves and account for
roughly 40 percent of the oil supplied into todays global
marketplace.5 OPEC actively works to achieve intended
price targets, and is often (though not always) effective in
doing so. In addition to coordinated production quotas,
OPEC member countries have often experienced
conflict or instability that has impacted production and
disrupted the global oil market. These disruptions have
far exceeded seasonal outages in other countries and
regions (recent examples include Venezuela, Libya, Iraq,
and Iran). OPEC countries also have limited incentives,
and sometimes limited capability, to effectively invest
in developing their vast resources of easy-to-access
conventional oil. Many are also becoming increasingly
dependent on higher oil prices (in some cases today
above $100 per barrel and rising) to meet growing social
4
5
See, e.g., U.S. EIA, Energy in Brief, Who are the major players supplying the world oil market? Last updated March 15, 2012
SAFE/RGE analysis based on data from: BP
Oil Security Index
figure 1
figure 2
OECD and Non-OECD Oil Consumption
Global Oil Reserves and Production by Source
80
80
1,600
80
60
60
1,200
60
40
40
800
40
20
20
400
20
million barrels per day
billion barrels
100%
0
1997
2002
2007
2012
oecd (lhs)
non-oecd (lhs)
oecd share (rhs)
non-oecd share (rhs)
shares of reserves and production
2,000
shares of consumption
100%
100
0
1997
2002
2007
2012
non-opec (lhs)
opec share reserves (rhs)
opec (lhs)
opec share production (rhs)
Source: BP Statistical Review 2013
spending demands. This further incentivizes policies

aimed at keeping prices high.
Seeking Stronger Oil Security

Many oil-consuming countries have heeded the price
trends and volatility of the past decade and are now
actively working to enhance their oil security. Some
are making greater strides than others, and outlooks
vary, but the commonality between efforts is that
countries are acting to reduce the overall oil intensity of their respective economies. In some cases,
countries are also exploring for and developing new
domestic oil resources. Perhaps the most prominent
efforts so far include establishing standards for vehicle
fuel efficiency. Such standards are becoming increasingly commonplace in both developed and emerging
countries. Additional efforts are increasingly focused
on support for alternative vehicle fuels, from electricity
and natural gas to hydrogen, through research and
development funding and/or incentives. In some
countries, policies have also promoted the displacement of oil in other sectors, such as power generation.
For example, the United States has reduced oil use
from approximately 17 percent of total generation in
the mid-1970s to less than 1 percent today. 6
6
U.S. EIA, AER 2011, Table 8.2b; and U.S. EIA, Short Term Energy
Outlook (STEO), May 2013, Figure 7.2, at 94
On the supply side, increasing light, tight oil production

(LTO) from shales, carbonates, and other source-rock
formations has made the United States the standout
among a handful of production bright spots outside the
OPEC cartel (others include Canada, Brazil, Colombia,
and Kazakhstan). This has enabled the United States
to decrease its import needs by more than 50 percent
since 2005, with obvious benefits for the current
account balance and domestic investment.
Nevertheless, oil retains and indeed is strengthening its importance as a vital economic input. This
holds true in developed countries where oil demand
remains at just below 50 million barrels per day
(mbd), and in emerging countries, where demand
has increased by approximately 20 mbd over the
past two decades.7 In fact, oil demand in non-OECD
countries is set to become the majority share of total
global oil demand next year.8
Currently, a global recession that has dampened oil
demand, a still-weak recovery that has so far limited a
strong rebound in demand, particularly in developed
countries, and the emergence of new unconventional
oil supplies in North America are providing some respite
from tightness between oil demand and supply in the
market. However, the underlying market dynamics of
7
8
BP, plc., Statistical Review 2013, Historical data

International Energy Agency (IEA), Medium Term Oil Market Report
(MTOMR), 2013, Table 1
Oil Security Index
figure 3
140
14
120
12
100
10
80
60
40
20
million barrels per day / percent
dollars per barrel
Quarterly Oil Price and OPEC Spare Oil Production Capacity
0
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
brent oil spot price (lhs)
2001
2002
2003
2004
opec spare capacity(rhs)
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
opec spare capacity, percent of global consumption (rhs)
figure 4
Oil Demand by Index Country, 2003 and 2012
million barrls per day
21
18
15
12
9
6
3
0
united
states
china
japan
india
russia
saudi
arabia
2003 non-oecd
brazil
germany
2012 oecd
canada
mexico
united
kingdom
australia
south
africa
2003 oecd
2012 non-oecd
figure 5
figure 6
Forecast Oil Demand Growth, 2011 to 2035
Forecast Oil Production Growth, 2011 to 2035

120%
100
10
100
80
80
60
60
40
iraq
-6
other opec
-60
change 2011-2020 (lhs)
percent change 2011-2035 (rhs)
-2
-4
oecd
americas
other
non-oecd
saudi
arabia
-40
20
iran
china
india
middle
east
other
asia
africa
-6
-20
other oecd
0
latin
america
e. europe,
eurasia
-2
-4
20
russia
40
china
oecd
europe
10
207%

percent change 2011-2035 (rhs)
Source Figure 3: U.S. EIA, STEO; Figure 4: BP Statistical Review 2013; Figure 5,6: IEA, WEO 2012
0
-20
-40
-60
percentage change, 2011-2035
12
percentage change, 2011-2035
+120%
oecd asia
oceania
12
oecd
europe
oecd
americas
Oil Security Index
increasing non-OECD oil demand and limited growth

of low-cost oil supplies suggest that significant market
volatility and challenges to oil security will persist.
Trends that Undermine

On the supply side, regional fallout from the Arab
Spring continues to hinder investments in new
production capacity in generally low-cost conventional Middle Eastern resources. Physical security
risks to oil fields and production facilities, including
those outside the Middle East, still remain. Deliberate
underinvestment in production capacity by OPEC
and others will also threaten the markets ability to
provide adequate, affordable supplies of oil over the
long term. Furthermore, the concentration of oil
reserves in OPEC countries increases their influence
over the market and prices. Current forecasts from
the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimate that
contrary to conventional wisdomOPEC will grow its
share of global production over the next twenty years
despite the improved production outlook in some
non-OPEC countries.9
The concentration of key suppliers in the Middle East
and North Africa could also carry a heightened risk
due to reliance on sometimes-vulnerable supply
routes. This is a concern to all oil-consuming countries, not only those importing from the countries
or regions in question. Oil flow through the Strait
of Hormuz (located between Iran and Oman), for
example, is forecast to rise from approximately 18
mbd today (42 percent of global trade) to 25 mbd in
2035 (50 percent of global trade).10 Finally, in other
countries and regions, increasingly difficult-to-access
resources remain more costly to extractdespite
technological advances that render them economically viable at current pricesand therefore have so
far had little impact on the global cost curve.
On the demand side, non-OECD countries are generally expected to experience brisk oil consumption
growth, particularly in their transportation sectors.
This growth is expected to more than offset gradual
and continued declines in consumption in OECD
countries. China, for example, has become the
worlds largest passenger car market with annual
9 IEA, World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2012, Table 3.4, at 102
10 Id., at 79
sales expected to surpass 17 million units in 2013.11

By contrast, sales in the United States are likely to
number approximately 15 million. With Chinese car
ownership at roughly 70 per 1,000 people (versus
800 per 1,000 people in the United States), the
potential for additional Chinese automobile demand
remains substantial.12
The net global increase in oil consumption for transportation is expected to come despite a variety of
measures to reduce the oil requirements of the
underlying mobility demand growth. These measures include lower subsidies and/or higher taxes
on oil products, as well as strengthened efficiency
measures. Moreover, because replacing the vehicle
(and capital) stock takes many years, and in some
cases decades, the prospects for significant reductions in overall oil demand and consumption rates in
the transportation sector are limited in the near term
and strengthen substantially only a decade or more
into the future. Finally, beyond light-duty passenger
transportation, freight is expected to play a key role
in driving global oil demand growth over the next
quarter century, and expanded air travel and maritime activity will also contribute.
Pressing Need for Improvement

For countries across the globe, reliable and affordable supplies of oil are far from secure over either
the short or long term. Countries heavily dependent
on oil remain highly vulnerable to changes in prices.
Today, and into the foreseeable future, high prices
will detract from economic activity and growth.
Unpredictable spikes could be even more damaging.
Active steps to reduce exposure, enhance response
capabilities, and ultimately strengthen oil security
remain a pressing need. The Oil Security Index uses
metrics that capture trends in underlying variables
oil prices, oil revenues and spending, economic
growth, efficiency, oil consumption and production,
stockholdings, and the risk environmentto track
the evolution of oil security over time.
11 SAFE/RGE analysis based on data from: China Association of Automobile Manufacturers and Motor Intelligence
12 Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Transportation Energy Data
Book (TEDB), Edition 32, Table 3.5
Oil Security Index
Metrics and Findings

The Indexs seven metrics reveal important information about different aspects of a
countrys oil security. These metrics are organized into three categories; Structural
Dependency, Economic Exposure, and Supply Security.
Descriptions of the seven metrics in addition to the

results for the Index countries are presented below.
Structural Dependency
Definition: a countrys structural dependence on oil
due to capital stock and other economic factors. A
countrys structural dependency metrics typically
change slowly over time, providing relatively consistent measures of vulnerability regardless of prevailing
price conditions.
calculation
oil intensity
Oil Intensity is calculated as the number of barrels of

crude oil consumed per $1,000 of GDP, which estimates the importance of oil to a countrys economic
activity. Economies that are heavily reliant on oil as a
fuel source are inherently more vulnerable to the impacts of supply disruptions and oil price volatility than
those that are not. This is particularly true for economies where the ability to switch rapidly to substitute
fuelswhether for industrial, transportation, electric
power, or other usesis limited. Historically, many developed economies have been heavily reliant on oil as a
fuel in the transportation sector. Todays developing
This metric is calculated as the volume of oil consumed in a country divided by constant
GDP (2005 U.S. dollars).
figure 7
figure 8
Oil Intensity, 2011 and 2012
Oil Intensity, 1980 to 2012

barrels of oil consumed per $1,000 gdp
russia
saudi
arabia
india
brazil
south
africa
mexico
china
canada
2012
australia
united
states
2011
germany
japan
united
kingdom
barrels of oil consumed per $1,000 of gdp
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
australia
brazil
canada
china
germany
india
japan
mexico
russia
saudi arabia
south africa
united kingdom
united states
Source Figure 7: SAFE/RGE analysis; Figure 8: SAFE/RGE analysis based on data from BP Statistical Review 2013 and World Bank
Oil Security Index
economieswhose rapidly expanding middle classes

are using newfound spending power to increase personal mobilityare following a similarly oil-dependent
path despite near-global efforts to improve the efficiency of road vehicles and diversify fuel sources.
Change in this metric comes as a result of very large,
gradual shifts in the energy mix used to power the
capital stock. A countrys rate of economic growth (or
contraction) and efficiency of its oil use are also critical
determinants of oil intensity over time. Because it is
a volume-based measurement, oil intensity tends to
remain relatively constant over shorter time periods.
Oil intensity, therefore, provides a stable, endogenous
metric that can only show meaningful improvement
through some combination of technological change
and economic growth. By contrast, some other metrics
will see improvement due to exogenous changes
in the market, such as price decreases. This pricechange-based improvement will not, however, be a
true indication of ongoing and overall vulnerability.
Most countries included in the Index have been
observing gradual declines in oil intensity over
calculation
fuel consumption
per capita
the past three decades. Highly efficient European

nations and Japan lead the way, consuming between
0.30 and 0.40 barrels of oil per $1,000 of GDP. The
United States and Australia consume roughly twice
as much oil per unit of economic output (0.56 and
0.63, respectively) as the United Kingdom and Japan
(0.32 and 0.33, respectively)although all four have
approximately halved their oil consumption per unit of
output since 1980. Significant declines in oil intensity
have been observed almost exclusively in developed
countries, which also began the period with relatively
more efficient use of oil per unit of GDP. Although
China has experienced the largest decline in oil
intensity over the past several decades, this is more
a function of its rapid economic growth outpacing its
oil demand growth than of its improved levels of efficiency. Russia and Saudi Arabia remain particularly
heavy consumers of oil per unit of economic output,
at 2.58 and 3.62, respectively.
Fuel Consumption per Capita provides an estimate for the vulnerability of individuals and households to high and volatile oil prices. As prices have
increased over the past decade, the percentage of
This metric is calculated as the volume of fuel consumed in a country divided by the
countrys population. The fuel volume includes gasoline, gas oil, and diesel oil.
figure 9
figure 10
Fuel Consumption per Capita,

Q1 2012 and Q1 2013
Fuel Consumption per Capita, Select Index

Countries, Q1 2006 to Q1 2013
2.0
2.0
1.6
gallons per capita per day
gallons per capita per day
1.8
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
1.5
1.0
0.5
0
saudi
arabia
united
states
australia
canada
germany
united
kingdom
Source: SAFE/RGE analysis
japan
q1 2013
mexico
russia
south
africa
brazil
china
india
q1 2012
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
japan
canada
china
india
russia
saudi arabia
united states
2012
2013
Oil Security Index
their budgets that individuals must dedicate to fuel

purchases has also risen, although the use of more
efficient products (and subsidies for oil consumption) can have a mitigating (or offsetting) effect.
Shelter, sustenance, travel, healthcare, and many
other items combine to form a portfolio of personal
spending needs. Without a corresponding increase
in income in the short term, when the cost of one
portfolio item increases on a per unit basis, a
greater proportion of spending must be allocated
to that item unless consumption can be readily
reduced. Personal travelthe primary fuel-dependent item in most individual portfolios, particularly
in highly-motorized economiestends to be fairly
inflexible in the short run, making fuel consumption
price inelastic. As a result, those that must travel
must offset the higher cost with a decrease in
spending on other items.
Saudi Arabia (1.85 gallons per capita per day) and
the United States (1.70) had the highest levels of
calculation
total spending
on oil as a
percentage
of gdp
consumption in Q1 2013. Saudi Arabias high per

capita fuel use is largely a function of fuel subsidies
that promote inefficient oil use. The oil consumption of other wealthy countries with higher-than-average per capita consumption, like Australia
(1.43) and Canada (1.35), is driven by their large
geographic size and distributed populations. More
densely-populated and efficient European countries, as well as Japan, consume approximately one
third the fuel of the United States on a per capita
basis. These countries also tax fuel at a higher
rate, which increases its price and, all other things
equal, further encourages lower levels of consumption either through the use of alternatives to oil or
greater efficiency. In most developed countries,
fuel consumption per capita is trending downwards. Fuel consumption per capita in less developed countries is currently substantially lower, but
growing rapidly, driven in part by increased vehicle
ownership. For example, per capita fuel consumption in China has more than doubled from 0.08 in
Q1 2000 to 0.18 in Q1 2013.
This metric is calculated as the volume of oil consumed in a country multiplied by the nominal
oil price in U.S. dollars, divided by the countrys nominal GDP in U.S. dollars. The oil volume
includes crude oil, gas oil, diesel oil, gasoline, kerosene, and fuel oil. Consumption is calculated
from production, import, export, and stock data. Oil prices are taken as the average wholesale
spot market price across a selection of countries and regions.
figure 11
figure 12
Total Spending on Oil as a Percentage of GDP,

Q1 2012 and Q1 2013
Total Spending on Oil as a Percentage of GDP,

Select Index Countries, Q1 2001 to Q1 2013
8%
12%
10
5
percent
percent
10
6
4
4
3
0
saudi
arabia
india
mexico
russia
south
africa
china
brazil
q1 2013
united
states
australia
japan
germany
united
kingdom
canada
q1 2012
1
0
2001
china
2003
2005
germany
2007
2009
united states
2011
2013
Oil Security Index
Economic Exposure
Definition: a countrys direct economic exposure to
oil price volatility. Economic exposure is of course a
function of structural dependency, but it is also more
heavily driven by exogenous changes in global oil
prices and therefore variable over time. Economic
exposure is measured by spending on oil across typical indicators like GDP and the current account.
Total Spending on Oil as a Percentage of GDP
estimates the current cost of oil consumption and
accounts effectively forsometimes rapidlychanging oil prices. This metric is an important inclusion in
the Index, because even as many economies become
less oil intense, high oil prices push industrial and
consumer spending on petroleum fuels to levels
that can have severe, negative impacts on growth
(demand destruction), and even play a role in triggering recessions.
For governments, businesses, and citizens, there are
few substitutes for gasoline or diesel, and most oil
demand is relatively inelastic. Although there will be
some reduction in consumption as a result of higher
prices, it will be less than proportional. Furthermore,
without a corresponding gain in efficiency (which is
difficult to achieve in the short term), any given use
of oil will be no more productive, but simply more
costly. The net result for the economy as a whole is
that higher prices for petroleum products leave less
money available for other items. Higher oil prices
therefore function as a negative stimulus to the
economy, or effectively, as a tax. This metric therefore provides insight into the impact of volatile prices
on the economy as a whole.
The results show substantial variationvariation that
noticeably correlates with changes in oil prices over
time. The countries with lower levels of oil intensity
experience both lower spending on oil as a percentage of GDP and less fluctuation in these percentages
over time. High national GDP moderates the effect of
relatively inefficient oil use. This is true of the United
States (3.2 percent), for example, at least in comparison to European peers such as Germany (2.3) and
the United Kingdom (2.1). For Q1 2013, the lowest percentage is observed in Canada (1.9) and the highest
in Saudi Arabia (10.3). Countries with smaller and
less efficient economies fare worse.

of GDP provides an estimate for the exposure of a
countrys trade balance to the cost of oil. Approximately 60 percent of daily global oil consumption
occurs in a country different than where it was produced.13 For those countries that either export large
volumes or rely heavily on imported volumes, volatile
oil prices and inconsistent levels of domestic production can have a substantial impact on the size of their
trade deficit or surplus.
Running large and persistent trade deficits can pose
challenges to an economy, because it creates a
dependency on consistent capital inflows from foreign
entities. This compounds a nations international debt
burden, the service obligations of which can amount
to a sizeable drag on economic growth. Measuring a
countrys exposure to such dynamics is therefore an
important inclusion in the Index.
Total import spending as a share of GDP is a function of
relative import/export volumes, which are themselves
a function of domestic consumption and production,
prices, and GDP. Oil price changes are typically much
more immediate than changes in production or
consumption quantities. For exporters, the question
is largely one of revenue generation and stability for
budgeting and planning purposes. For importers,
reducing domestic oil consumption and increasing
domestic oil production act to limit the exposure of the
trade balance to oil price fluctuations. Such changes
will not happen from quarter to quarter, but they can
occur in as little as a few years, for example as a result
of recessionary conditions that cause significant
declines in consumption or major developments on
the domestic supply side. The United States provides
the most obvious recent example, with a combination
of rising domestic oil production and a decline in oil
consumption resulting in a fall in net oil and petroleum
product imports of more than 40 percent between
2005 and 2012, from 12.6 mbd to 7.4 mbd.14
Although absolute spending on net oil imports remains
highest in countries like the United States and China,
once adjusted for economy size, India and South Africa
experience the largest import costs, at 4.8 and 4.9
percent of their respective GDPs in Q1 2013. Net oil
exporters Saudi Arabia, Russia, Canada, and Mexico
13 SAFE/RGE analysis based on data from: BP
14 U.S. EIA, STEO, May 2013, at 5
11
Oil Security Index
earn revenue from oil exports, effectively observing

negative spending on net oil imports. In countries where
oil production and consumption are closely aligned,
such as Brazil and the United Kingdom, spending on net
oil imports is equivalent to only a very small percentage
of GDP0.2 and 0.8, respectively in Q1 2013.
Oil Exports as a Percentage of Total Exports by
Value provides a measure of a countrys reliance on
oil exports for revenue. Typically, countries with more
diversified export bases are better able to maintain
fiscal stability whether the price of oil is high or low.
However, a country that is heavily reliant on oil export
revenues to meet its budgetary needs (a common
phenomenon in many major oil-exporting countries
and especially those where NOCs are dominant) is
less able to withstand negative price shocks.
For most countries in the Index, oil export revenues
are not a meaningful share of total export revenue, and
many actually spend heavily on net oil imports. Saudi
calculation
total spending
on net oil imports
as a percentage
of gdp
Arabia (88 percent) and Russia (51 percent) are the

obvious exceptions, deriving most of their export revenues from oil sales. With oil playing such a key role, even
moderate swings in price have a substantial impact on
both oil export revenues and total export revenues. For
example, the value of Saudi Arabias oil exports fell from
$281 billion in 2008 (when oil prices averaged almost
$100 per barrel) to just $162 billion in 2009 (when
oil prices averaged close to $60 per barrel).15 Saudi
Arabias total export revenues shifted in concert, falling
from $313 billion to $192 billion, a drop of approximately
40 percent.16 Russia fared similarly in this time period,
as did other major oil producers that rely heavily on oil
for export revenues. While home to more diverse economies, Canada and Mexico (which both export crude oil),
and India (which both exports petroleum products) also
observe a strong contribution to total export revenues
from oil exports and are impacted by price fluctuations.
15 OPEC, Annual Statistical Bulletin 2012, Tables 2.3 and 2.4
16 Id.
This metric is calculated as the volume of net oil imports multiplied by the oil price, divided by
nominal GDP. For net oil-exporting countries, this measures the revenue from net oil exports
as a percentage of GDP. Again, this volume includes crude oil, gas oil, diesel oil, gasoline,
kerosene, and fuel oil, and the oil price is the average wholesale market price.
figure 13
figure 14

of GDP, Q1 2012 and Q1 2013
Change in Estimated Net Oil Imports, 2007 to 2012
10%
3
2
0
-10
percent
12
-20
-30
-40
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
china
india
mexico
united
kingdom
brazil
Source Figure 13: SAFE/RGE analysis; Figure 14: SAFE/RGE analysis based on data from BP Statistical Review 2013
australia
south
africa
germany
russia
change
japan
canada
saudi
arabia
united
states
south
africa
india
china
japan
germany
united
states
australia
q1 2013
united
kingdom
brazil
mexico
q1 2012
canada
russia
saudi
arabia
-50
Oil Security Index
Supply Security
required to encourage investment in future production also vary across countries.
Definition: a countrys vulnerability to physical supply disruptions and its response capabilities. While
supply disruptions are typically addressed by the
market through changes in prices, the adjustment
period can be highly damaging for import-dependent nations, especially if adequate emergency inventories are unavailable.
Oil Supply Security provides a measure of disruption risk to a countrys oil supply in the near term
(i.e. supply shock) and longer term (e.g. as a result
of insufficient investment in production capacity).
Some countries are more susceptible to supply chain
disruptions and unplanned outages than others. In
the event of a disruption, these countries will experience additional costs beyond those caused only
by the increase in price. The additional costs might
include product mismatching, supply rerouting,
forced contract-to-spot-market switching, drawdown
of stockpiles, etc. The regulatory and tax frameworks
calculation
oil exports as
a percentage
of total exports
by value
This metric uses RGEs Social, Institutional and Regulatory Risk (SIRR) indicator, which scores countries
from 0 (worst) to 10 (best) based on a number of
factors to provide a proxy for the security of a countrys crude oil output. The factors included in the
indicator are; social and political risk, government
effectiveness, business environment and regulatory
quality, and property rights protection and corporate
governance. Based on these scores, an aggregated
result is derived for each Index country that combines the risk score from its domestic production and
the weighted risk scores of its imports.
Many of the major oil exporters that supply Index
countries score poorly on this metric. These exporters include Azerbaijan (3.8), Nigeria (3.3), Iran (3.2),
Russia (3.0), Angola (2.7), Algeria (2.7), Venezuela
(2.6), Iraq (2.2), and Libya (2.1). Other major oil producers like Norway (8.5), Canada (8.3), the United
This metric is calculated as the value of oil exports divided by the value of total exports.
The value of oil exports is calculated using the volume of exports multiplied by the oil
price. Again, this volume includes crude oil, gas oil, diesel oil, gasoline, kerosene, and fuel
oil, and the oil price is the average wholesale market price.
figure 15
Oil Exports as a Percentage of Total Exports by Value, Q1 2013
100%
90
80
percent
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
saudi
arabia
russia
canada
india
mexico
united
kingdom
brazil
united
states
australia
japan
china
germany
south
africa
q1 2013
13
Oil Security Index
Kingdom (7.9), and the United States (7.6) are considered less at risk.
Of the Index countries, Russia (3.1) is considered the
most susceptible to a supply disruption. And while
this might appear counter-intuitive given its status
as a major oil producer and exporter, Russias production occurs in a very poor domestic business and
regulatory environment. Russia is followed by China
(4.4), Germany (4.4), India (4.6), and Japan (4.7),
which are all highly dependent on oil imports. Canada
(7.8), the United Kingdom (6.7), and the United States
(6.6) are the least at risk of supply disruptions thanks
to significant levels of domestic production and
imports from relatively secure neighbors. Notably,
the United Kingdoms score has declined markedly in
recent years (from 8.4 as recently as 2005) as it has
become more dependent on imports to meet its consumption needs. Conversely, the United States score
has risen as greater domestic production reduces
the countrys reliance on imports from unstable
calculation
oil supply
security
countries (from 5.8 in 2006). Canada leads the other

major oil exporters as the lowest risk country in the
Index due to its very low import requirements and
strong regulatory, legal, and tax frameworks.
Total Oil Stockholdings as a Percentage of Consumption focuses specifically on a countrys ability to
respond to supply shocks. Crude oil and product
stocks provide an important market buffer that can
limit oil price volatility and allow time for supply chains
to adjust or be reestablished. The United States used
releases from strategic stockpiles in the aftermath of
Hurricane Katrina, while IEA member countries collectively used releases to help offset the Libyan supply
outage in 2011. Because oil is fungible, releases from
stockpiles benefit all consumers in the global market
from a price perspective, not just those who directly
receive the oil that is released. Verbal affirmations that
stockpile releases are an option and will be used if
necessary have also been used to provide reassurance
to the market and limit oil price volatility, notably as
Using RGEs SIRR indicators, this metric is calculated as a weighted average of the SIRR
scores for each country an Index country imports oil from (proportional to its share of
total imports), and a SIRR score for the Index countrys domestic oil production (which
can be zero). Combined this provides a composite risk score for a countrys estimated oil
consumption (calculated as the total volume of domestic production plus net imports).
figure 16
figure 17
Oil Supply Security, Select Index Countries,

Q1 2000 to Q1 2013
SIRR Score and Oil Production, Select Index and

Other Countries, 2012
10
country sirr score
9
oil supply security score
14
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2013
canada
china
india
russia
saudi arabia
united kingdom
united states
south africa
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12 13
australia
algeria
angola
brazil
mexico
china
iran
iraq
canada
russia
saudi arabia
nigeria
norway
united arab emirates
united kingdom
united states
venezuela
Note: Germany, India, Japan, and South Africa are not included
Source Figure 16: SAFE/RGE analysis; Figure 17: SAFE/RGE analysis based on data from BP Statistical Review of 2013
Oil Security Index
sanctions have removed Iranian crude oil exports over

the past 18 months. However, the nature and severity
of the supply shock are also important. For example, in
the event of regional war in the Middle East, U.S.
domestic stockpiles would be critical to avoiding
shortages in the short term as the country sought
alternatives for crude from Saudi Arabia and others.
Countries more directly (and heavily) reliant on Middle
East oil imports, such as China, would face greater
challenges in such a scenario.
IEA member countries have the largest oil stockpiles
and are required by statute to hold stocks equivalent
to at least 90 days of net oil imports.17 IEA countries
may release reserves unilaterally or in a coordinated
action. Emerging countries, in particular China,
have taken several years to build up stockpiles, but

continue to approach the process aggressively. Most
oil exporters have built up their stockpiles slowly, but
some, like Russia, with currently near-zero, are now
doing so. There has been a marked shift in global
oil stockpiling from developed to emerging market
economies in recent years.
Russia scores lowest on this metric (11 percent of
quarterly consumption) and Saudi Arabia highest
(185 percent). Brazil, China, and India all also score
less than 30 percent.
17 Of the countries included in the Index, six are IEA member countries.
These countries are Australia, Canada, Germany, Japan, the United
Kingdom, and the United States. There are currently three net-oil-exporting IEA member countries including Canada (plus Denmark and
Norway) which do not have a stockholding obligation.
calculation
total oil
stockholdings
as a percentage
of consumption
This metric is calculated as the total volume of oil stocks divided by the total volume
of quarterly oil consumption. Again, the oil volume includes crude oil, gas oil, diesel oil,
gasoline, kerosene, and fuel oil. The lack of reliable data for China, Russia, and South Africa
necessitates the use of estimates. Consumption is implied from production, import, export,
and stock data.
figure 18
Total Oil Stockholdings as a Percentage of Quarterly Consumption, Q1 2012 and Q1 2013
200%
180
160
percent
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
saudi
arabia
japan
germany
united
states
canada
south
africa
united
kingdom
australia
mexico
india
q1 2013
brazil
q1 2012
china
russia
15
16
Oil Security Index
Country Rankings
To compare the results of different countries, the raw results for each quarterly time
period of every metric are normalized by the mean and standard deviation. The overall
country rankings are created by adding the normalized scores for each country into a
single combined score, then ordering these scores.
Relatively oil-efficient countries like Japan, the United

Kingdom, and Germany rank at or near the top of the
Index overall, scoring in the upper tier for Oil Intensity,
Total Spending on Oil as a Percentage of GDP, and
Fuel Consumption per Capita.
Although Canadas Oil Exports as a Percentage of
Total Exports by Value is relatively high (and rising),
it ranks third thanks to a combination of upper- and
middle-tier scores on other metrics. Canada scores
particularly well on production-related metrics
including Oil Supply Security and Total Spending on
Net Oil Imports as a Percentage of GDP.
In contrast, Germanys lower ranking is largely a
result of being less efficient than Japan and the
United Kingdom (its developed country peers), and a
bottom-tier Oil Supply Security score due to a heavy
reliance on oil imports from Russia and Africa.
Geographically larger and relatively less oil-efficient

countries follow. Both the United States and Australia score in the bottom tier for Fuel Consumption
per Capita and the middle tier for Oil Intensity, but
high relative GDP and scores in the upper tier for Oil
Supply Security (thanks to relatively high levels of
domestic oil production) help both of these countries
to a middle ranking.
Large developing countries like Brazil, China,
and Mexico lie in the bottom half of the ranking.
These countries each produce sizeable quantities
of oil, but their scores for Total Spending on Oil
as a Percentage of GDP are among the highest
given their lower relative GDP in comparison to
more developed countries. Fuel Consumption
per Capita is also rising in these countries, which
is weakening their ranking over time. Given rising
oil demands and more limited oil stockpiles, their
figure 19
Historical Rankings, 2000 to 2013
united kingdom
japan
south africa
germany
canada
australia
united states
mexico
brazil
china
india
saudi arabia
russia
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Oil Security Index
Total Stockholdings as a Percentage of Consumption scores are in the bottom tier.

Despite having the lowest Fuel Consumption per
Capita, Indias bottom-tier scores for several metrics,
including Oil Intensity, Total Spending on Oil as a
Percentage of GDP, and Total Spending on Net Oil
Imports as a Percentage of GDP, push it towards the
bottom of the rankings.
Russia and Saudi Arabia score in the upper tier for
Total Spending on Net Oil Imports as a Percentage of
GDP due to their oil exports, but rank at the bottom
overall thanks to exceedingly high relative levels of
inefficiency (between eight and ten times higher than

the most efficient countries) and extremely high percentages for the Oil Exports as a Percentage of Total
Exports by Value metric, indicating their overwhelming dependence on oil exports for revenue.
Rankings of the 13 Index countries can also be determined for each of the seven individual metrics. Some
countries perform very well on certain metrics and
very poorly on others, while other countries perform
consistently in the upper, middle, or bottom tiers
across all seven metrics. Overall rankings, metric
rankings and results, and additional data are available
in an interactive online tool.
japan
united kingdom
canada
mexico
india
2013
3
4
united states
australia
china
germany
south africa
brazil
6
7
8
9
10
11
russia
12
saudi arabia
13
17
18
Oil Security Index
Global Results and Trends

Oil security varies markedly across the 13 countries. Some countries perform well on certain
metrics and poorly on others, while other countries are more consistently strong or weak
performers. Forecast and expected changes in the underlying data used to construct the
individual metrics for a given country are informative of the overall trend in its oil security.
UNITED
KINGDOM
CANADA
UNITED
STATES
10
MEXICO
8
BRAZIL
SOUTH
AFRICA
Oil Security Index
oil security trend
positive
neutral
negative
key
Total Oil Stockholdings as a
Percentage of Consumption
Oil Supply Security
Oil Exports as a Percentage
of Total Exports by Value
Oil Intensity
Fuel Consumption per Capita
RANK
Total Spending on Oil

as a Percentage of GDP
Total Spending on Net Oil Imports

12
RUSSIA
GERMANY
JAPAN
CHINA
13
SAUDI
ARABIA
AUSTRALIA
11
INDIA
19
20
Oil Security Index
Japan
155%
9
13
Oil Supply Security
Oil Intensity
2
13
2
13
4.7
0.33

OIL SECURITY
TREND
7
13
10
13
4
13
0.58
Fuel Consumption
per Capita
oil security
ranking
4
13
1%
2.5%
Oil Exports as a
Percentage of Total
Exports by Value

2.3%
Total Spending on
Net Oil Imports as a
Percentage of GDP
Facts and Figures
0.0 BBL
0.0 MBD
4.7 MBD
1.9%
Oil Reserves (2012)
Production (2012)
Consumption (2012)
GDP Forecast (2013)
0.0%
0.0 MBD
-0.2 MBD
-0.1%
of Global Total (2012)
Change (2008-2012)
Change (2008-2012)
GDP (2008-2012)*
*Average Annual Growth
Oil Security Index
country profile
Japans extensive conservation efforts and ample

stockholdings substantially mitigate the vulnerability
posed by a reliance on oil imports.
assessment
Japans highly-efficient vehicle fleet helps cap oil
demand, rendering Fuel Consumption per Capita the
lowest among developed countries. Sizeable oil stockpiles also provide some cushion against the possibility
of supply shocks. Japans Total Spending on Oil and
Total Spending on Net Oil Imports (as Percentages
of GDP) are in fact as low as several countries that
produce at least some oil domestically (such as the
United States, United Kingdom, China, and Australia).
Japan ranks highly despite increased oil burn in
the power sector as a result of the post-Fukushima
shutdown of nuclear power generating capacity. A
modest improvement in Japans economic output
could lead to a temporary increase in oil consumption
and greater exposure to prices, but this will almost
certainly be offset by the reduction in oil use for power
generation in the short-to-medium term.
background
Japan is the third largest energy consumer in the world,
but only 16 percent energy self-sufficient.18 Japans
high level of oil consumption and lack of self sufficiency
also makes it the third largest net importer of crude oil.
Eighty-seven percent of Japans oil is sourced from the
Middle East (particularly Saudi Arabia, the United Arab
Emirates, and Qatar), but the country has moved to
diversify the origins of its imports by increasing trade
with Russia, South East Asia, and Africa.19
Japan supports overseas oil exploration and development through its banking and manufacturing sectors
(e.g., through loans from the Japan Bank for International Cooperation). By 2030, the government hopes
that 40 percent of Japanese crude oil imports will
originate from Japanese-owned concessions, up from
19 percent today.20 The country has also taken steps
18 U.S. EIA, Country Analysis Briefs, Japan, last updated June 4, 2012
19 Id.
20 Id.
to become a storage hub in Asia for Gulf Cooperation

Council (GCC) producers, including Saudi Arabia and
the United Arab Emirates (Japan will hold oil in spare
storage capacity that it will then have the right to use in
an emergency situation).21 These measures add to its
already extensive domestic stockholdings.
14%
Decline in Japanese oil

consumption between
2003 and 2012
Very aware of its lacking domestic energy resources,
Japan launched a series of energy efficiency and
conservation measures in the 1970s, which have
been extended in recent decades. As a result, Japans
economy is among the worlds most energy efficient,
and it boasts a more efficient vehicle fleet than other
developed economies.
Japans heavy reliance on oil has been exacerbated in
the last two years due to the reduction in nuclear power
output following damage caused by a tsunami which
struck its coast in 2011. Due to lengthy repairs and
policy decisions, 48 of the 50 nuclear reactors remain
offline today. Japan has replaced its nuclear output by
burning natural gas, crude oil, and fuel oil for electricity.
The gradual return of nuclear power generation and
continued improvement in vehicle efficiency is likely to
resume Japans declining trend in oil consumption in
the coming years (approximately -1.4 percent per year),
but the timeline remains largely uncertain.22
21 IEA, MTOMR 2013, at 115

22 Id., at 34
21
22
Oil Security Index
United Kingdom
52%
0.30

OIL SECURITY
TREND
Oil Intensity
1
13
7
13
6.7
Oil Supply Security
2
13
0.59
8
13
Fuel Consumption
per Capita
oil security
ranking
8
13
2
13
6
13
8%
2.1%
Oil Exports as a
Percentage of Total
Exports by Value

0.8%
Total Spending on
Percentage of GDP
Facts and Figures
3.1 BBL
1.0 MBD
1.5 MBD
0.8%
Oil Reserves (2012)
Production (2012)
Consumption (2012)
GDP Forecast (2013)
0.2%
-0.6 MBD
-0.2 MBD
-0.4%
Change (2008-2012)
Change (2008-2012)
GDP (2008-2012)*
Oil Security Index
country profile
The United Kingdom is the leading producer of oil in

the European Union. However, the country is becoming
increasingly reliant on oil imports as its production declines.
assessment
The United Kingdom has suffered declining domestic
oil production in recent years, which has been only
partly offset by easing demand. Although the country
receives most of its oil imports from relatively stable
European sources, especially Norway, the reduction
in domestic production has nonetheless precipitated
a substantial weakening in its Oil Supply Security
(from 8.4 in 2000 to 6.7 in Q1 2013). Nevertheless,
low Oil intensity (1st) and Total Spending on Oil as
a Percentage of GDP (2nd) metric scores help the
United Kingdom maintain its place near the top of the
rankings overall.
Stringent vehicle fuel-efficiency standards and efforts
to revitalize domestic oil production suggest that
while more vulnerable to direct supply interruptions
than in the past, the United Kingdom could begin to
strengthen its long-term oil security outlook.
background
The United Kingdom controls the largest oil reserves
in the European Union with 3.1 billion barrels.23 Most
of these reserves are located offshore where 90
percent of production occurred in 2012.24 A combination of aging oil wells and high taxes for the oil industry have discouraged investment in the sector and
contributed to a sharp 13 percent drop in production
between 2011 and 2012.25
from 63 percent to 30 percent on some income generated from onshore shale gas extraction.26 Future
measures could similarly encourage the oil industry.
Compared to the United States, environmental and
regulatory burdens are higher.
58%
Decline in oil production

in the United Kingdom
over the past decade
From 2004 to 2012, total energy consumption in the
United Kingdom declined 10 percent as a result of
high prices and recessionary conditions.27 Oil consumption also declined over the same period from
1.8 to 1.5 mbd, but remains 34 percent of total energy
consumption.28 This downward trend is also partly
the result of technological advances being applied
to help raise vehicle fuel efficiency (common and
relatively stringent standards are set for all European
Union member countries).
With the government dependent on billions of dollars in

oil tax revenue and with the gap between consumption
and production widening, the United Kingdom is in the
process of attempting to reverse the downward trend
of production through the use of incentives, especially
for the development of unconventional resources. In
July 2013, the government proposed cutting taxes
23 BP, plc., Statistical Review 2013, historical data
24 U.S. EIA, Country Analysis Briefs, United Kingdom, last updated May
14, 2013
25 BP, plc., Statistical Review 2013, at 8
26 Government of the United Kingdom, Her Majestys Treasury, Harnessing the potential of the UKs natural resources: a fiscal regime
for shale gas, July 19, 2013
27 U.S. EIA, Country Analysis Briefs, United Kingdom
23
24
Oil Security Index
Canada
102%
5
13
7.8
Oil Supply Security
0.97

1
13
Oil Intensity
6
13
11
13
OIL SECURITY
TREND
1.35
10
13
Fuel Consumption
per Capita
oil security
ranking
1
13
19%
1.9%
3
13
Oil Exports as a
Percentage of Total
Exports by Value

-2.9%
Total Spending on
Percentage of GDP
Facts and Figures
173.9 BBL
3.7 MBD
2.4 MBD
1.3%
Oil Reserves (2012)
Production (2012)
Consumption (2012)
GDP Forecast (2013)
10.4%
0.5 MBD
0.1 MBD
1.2%
Change (2008-2012)
Change (2008-2012)
GDP (2008-2012)*
Oil Security Index
country profile
Canada is a major oil producer and home to some of the

worlds largest oil reserves. The country is the United
States largest foreign oil supplier.
assessment
High and rising domestic oil production more than
meets Canadas domestic demands and attracts
sizeable direct foreign investment. A high level of
revenues from oil exports (negative Total Spending
on Net Oil Imports as a Percentage of GDP) is also
a boon, with Canada placing behind only export
behemoths Saudi Arabia and Russia on this metric.
Canadas Total Spending on Oil as a Percentage of
GDP is the lowest in the Index (1.9 percent), and its
Oil Supply Security the highest (7.8). Canadas high
Fuel Consumption per Capita and the meaningful
reliance of its economy on oil export revenues offset
these positives.
Despite relatively high Oil Intensity for its income level
(0.97), the prognosis for Canadas oil security is generally positive as it is expected to maintain its production
and export base in the coming years while increasing
efficiency in the transportation sector (which will
prompt a gradual decline in fuel consumption).
background
Canada is the sixth largest oil producer in the world
and a major exporter, with almost all of its exports
going to the United States.29 The two countries share
a system of pipelines to facilitate the transportation
of oil. In recent years, economic and, to a lesser
extent, political considerations have also prompted
Canada to consider strengthening its energy relationships with emerging markets in Asia, where global
oil demand growth is concentrated. Canada has
welcomed foreign investment in its energy sector,
though new regulations cap the involvement of
foreign government-owned companies, which likely
have sought deals to gain expertise in unconventional
oil and natural gas production.
29 U.S. EIA, Country Analysis Briefs, Canada, last updated September

17, 2012
Canadas economy relies heavily on the revenues generated by oil production and export. And petroleum
companies made up 20 to 30 percent of the value of
the Toronto Stock Exchange in 2011.30 Canada holds
substantial oil reserves, of which 98 percent are
unconventional and located in the oil sands region
(170 billion barrels).31 Notably, while most of Canadas
oil production takes place in its western provinces, the
majority of Canadas population lives in the central
and eastern provinces. As a result, some oil used in
the east is imported by ship, pipelines, or rail from the
United States.32 Provincial and federal governments
are considering the construction of a cross-country
pipeline to better meet these needs.
170 billion
Barrels of estimated
unconventional oil reserves
located in the oil sands region
Canadian unconventional production sits at the upper
end of the global cost curve, which suggests that production could be temporarily shuttered if oil prices
were to fall sharply. Despite being a net oil exporter,
domestic retail fuel prices track global oil prices and
are slightly higher than those in the United States.
Thanks to a well-performing oil sector and strong
banks, economic growth drove oil demand increases
of approximately 2 percent per year between 2010
and 2012.33
30 Natural Resources Canada (NRC), Canadian Crude Oil, Natural Gas

and Petroleum Products: Review of 2009 & Outlook to 2030, 2011,
at 5
31 U.S. EIA, Country Analysis Briefs, Canada
32 NRC, Canadian Crude Oil, Natural Gas and Petroleum Products, at 6
33 IEA, MTOMR 2013, at 37-38
25
26
Oil Security Index
Germany
143%
11
13
Oil Supply Security
Oil Intensity
3
13
3
13
4.4
0.40

OIL SECURITY
TREND
0.76
9
13
Fuel Consumption
per Capita
oil security
ranking
3
13
9
13
2
13
1%
2.3%
Oil Exports as a
Percentage of Total
Exports by Value

2.3%
Total Spending on
Percentage of GDP
Facts and Figures
0.0 BBL
0.0 MBD
2.4 MBD
0.5%
Oil Reserves (2012)
Production (2012)
Consumption (2012)
GDP Forecast (2013)
0.0%
0.0 MBD
-0.1 MBD
0.8%
Change (2008-2012)
Change (2008-2012)
GDP (2008-2012)*
Oil Security Index
country profile
Germany is the largest energy and oil consumer in Europe

and relies almost exclusively on imports to meet its needs.
assessment
Despite being a sizeable net importer of oil, high levels
of efficiency (it currently ranks 3rd in Oil Intensity)
and a well-developed pipeline infrastructure mitigate
Germanys oil security risk. Germany also has sizeable
oil stockpiles (higher than the United States relative to
consumption) to guard against supply shocks. These
could prove useful given Germanys relatively poor
Oil Supply Security (4.4)a result of most oil imports
being sourced from Russia, the Middle East, and Africa.
The efficiency of its manufacturing sector, as well
as subsidies for some energy-intensive industries,
cushions its exposure to oil price volatility. However,
as Germany exits recession and demand becomes
more robust, oil use could rise slightlyincreasing its
vulnerability over the medium term.
Germany is already one of the worlds most efficient

oil users, and its demand-side policies appear set to
help it maintain this position in the coming decades.
These policies include the promotion of biofuels
and other alternatives, and efficiency standards for
buildings and vehicles. In transportation specifically,
European Union regulations, to which Germany is
subject, constitute some of the worlds most stringent fuel-economy requirements. Germany is also
aggressively pursuing electric vehicles. In 2010,
the government presented its Energy Concept for
an Environmentally Sound, Reliable and Affordable
Energy Supply strategy for the period up to 2050.
This strategy included achieving the deployment of
1 million and 6 million electric vehicles on German
roads by 2020 and 2030, respectively.39 Funding for
hydrogen and fuel cell demonstration projects were
also included as part of this strategy.40
background
Oil consumption in Germany has been gradually
decreasing since 1998.34 Nevertheless, oil retains
its place as the countrys primary energy source at
36 percent of the total.35 The transportation sector
accounts for approximately half of total oil consumption with the industrial sector a distant second.36
Although Germany has substantial refining capacity, it
has virtually no domestic production, and it relies on
imports to meet consumption needs of approximately
2.4 mbd.37 Russia, Norway, the United Kingdom
(where oil production is currently in decline), Libya,
and Nigeria have been the countrys largest crude oil
suppliers in recent years (it is, however, less reliant
on Russia than many countries in Eastern Europe).38
Although geologists suggest that the country may
have ample supplies of shale gas and oil, there is currently a moratorium in place.

35 Id., at 41
36 IEA, Oil and Gas Security, Emergency Response of IEA Countries,
Germany, 2012, at 7
37 Id., at 9
38 IEA, Oil, Gas, Coal, and Electricity, Quarterly Statistics, Fourth Quarter 2012, at 260
6 million
Electric vehicle deployment

goal set by the German
government for 2030
39 Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology (Germany), Germany

Trade and Invest, Germanys Energy Concept, last updated 2013
40 Id.
27
28
Oil Security Index
United States
118%
Oil Supply Security
Oil Intensity
4
13
4
13
6.6
0.56

OIL SECURITY
TREND
3
13
1.70
Fuel Consumption
per Capita
12
13
oil security
ranking
6
13
6
13
8
13
6%
3.2%
Oil Exports as a
Percentage of Total
Exports by Value

1.7%
Total Spending on
Percentage of GDP
Facts and Figures
35.0 BBL
8.9 MBD
18.6 MBD
1.8%
Oil Reserves (2012)
Production (2012)
Consumption (2012)
GDP Forecast (2013)
2.1%
2.1 MBD
-0.9 MBD
0.6%
Change (2008-2012)
Change (2008-2012)
GDP (2008-2012)*
Oil Security Index
country profile
The United States is the worlds largest oil consumer and

one of the largest producers. Its military plays a key role
in protecting energy infrastructure and supply routes.
assessment
Most measures of U.S. oil security and reliance have
improved over the past decade despite the sharp
increase in oil prices. For example, U.S. oil intensity
has fallen by one third, and the quantity of oil imports
has also declined as consumption has eased and production has risen. However, Fuel Consumption per
Capita is among the highest in the Index (1.7 gallons
per day). The increase in domestic oil production
has facilitated a strengthening in Oil Supply Security
(from 5.9 in 2007 to 6.6 in 2013) and the country
holds ample stocks on which it can call if necessary.
Long-term trends in fuel efficiency and oil production
growth suggest reason for optimism, but heavy oil
dependence still renders the country highly vulnerable
to price fluctuations in the short-to-medium term, particularly as economic growth (and fuel demand) recovers.
background
Each day, the United States consumes more oil than
China, Japan, and Russia combined. At almost 19
mbd, the country accounts for approximately 20
percent of total global oil consumption.41 And although
domestic oil production has been increasing in recent
years, the country remains a sizeable net importer of
crude oilimports are forecast to account for more
than half of total crude supplies in 2013.
The first efforts to significantly reduce the oil use and
intensity of the U.S. economy came in response to the
OPEC Oil Embargo (1973-74) that increased prices
fourfold from approximately $3 per barrel to $12 per
barrel.42 Responses included the establishment of
Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards
for light-duty cars and trucks, the development of
the Strategic Petroleum Reserve that today holds
around 700 million barrels of crude oil (the worlds
largest emergency stockpile),43 marketing campaigns
41 BP, plc., Statistical Review 2013 at 9
42 Id., historical data
intended to influence behavior, a phase-out of oil use

in power generation, and the establishment of the U.S.
Department of Energy.
These and subsequent efforts have had a substantial
impact, and the oil intensity of the U.S. economy has
fallen by approximately 60 percent since the early
1970s.44 However, some efforts stalled. For example,
vehicle fuel economy remained largely unchanged
from the mid-1980s until the mid-2000s.45 The
establishment of more stringent regulations since
2007 appears to be placing the country once again
on a more efficient path (although not as efficient as
European and Japanese peers).
Oil use in power generation was reduced from
approximately 17 percent of total generation in the
mid-1970s to less than 1 percent today.46 Fuel substitution has also begun to gain modest traction in
the transportation sector, with the increased use of
electricity, ethanol (biomass), and natural gas. Still,
petroleum fuels account for more than 93 percent of
delivered energy in the sector today.
Notably, higher oil prices have increased the total cost
of the net oil import burden in recent years, even as
imported volumes have declined. In fact, in 2011, despite
a third straight year of growth in domestic production
and a first year of net petroleum product exports since
1949, the U.S. petroleum trade deficit increased to $327
billion.47 However, in 2012, this trend finally began to
reverse, as the petroleum deficit fell to $291 billion. Continuation of this trend would support the U.S. external
balance and strengthen the U.S. dollar.
43 U.S. DOE, Office of Fossil Energy, Strategic Petroleum Reserve, last

accessed June 7, 2013
44 SAFE/RGE analysis based on data from: BP; and World Bank
45 U.S. DOT, NHTSA, Summary of Fuel Economy Performance, April 25,
2013
46 U.S. EIA, AER 2011, Table 8.2b; and U.S. EIA, STEO, May 2013, Figure
7.2, at 94
47 SAFE/RGE analysis based on data from: U.S. Census Bureau
29
30
Oil Security Index
spotlight on the united states
OIL SECURITY
TREND
For many decades, Americas dependence

on oil has had an enormous impact on the
economic and national security of the country.
As a result, oil security has been a major
concern of policymakers.
The Oil Security Index not only compares U.S.
oil security with other countries around the
globe, but also provides a numerical score of
U.S. oil security. This numerical score shows
changes in oil security over time. It is calculated
by combining results for each metric that are
normalized over the entire time series. The score
is indexed at 100 in Q1 2000, the first time period.
Oil Security Index
The combined score for the United States has shown

only moderate improvement since Q1 2000. However,
it has experienced sizeable upward and downward
shifts over the period, fluctuating between a low of
99.0 and a high of 100.4.
The score reached a low point in Q2 2008, reflecting
a sharp decline in oil security. This was a result of
increasing global oil prices and rising U.S. consumption and imports. As oil prices receded from record
highs, and U.S. oil consumption declined, oil security
improved somewhat. However, the rise in the score
was short-lived, as both oil prices and domestic consumption rebounded in 2010.
Since 2012, the combined score has been rising
steadily, reaching its highest levels yet in both Q4
2012 and Q1 2013. This improvement comes as a
result of ongoing economy-wide improvements in
efficiency, lower per capita oil consumption, increasing domestic oil production, and somewhat lower
global oil prices since the Arab Spring (and in particular, Libyan outages) in early 2011 (which resulted
in the most recent low point for the score). These
changing underlying dynamics have seen the United
States move from a low of 8th in the Index rankings to
its current high of 5th (since Q1 2012).
Both Structural Dependency metrics have shown
improving trends. Oil Intensity has observed
steady improvement since 2000, falling from 0.73
barrels per $1,000 of GDP in 2000 to 0.56 in Q1
2013, corresponding to a normalized metric score
of 103.0 (the best of any metric score over the time
period). This improvement is predominantly due
to the efficiency of oil use rising at a faster average
rate than GDP since 2000. Consumers have also
decreased consumption in response to higher oil
prices since 2007. In part this shift has been the
result of greater efficiency. However, a decline in
vehicle miles traveled (VMT) was a much larger
contributor, particularly during the recession, due
to high unemployment and reduced economic
activity overall. Though VMT rebounded slightly
in 2010, oil demand growth has not returned in
earnest. In 2013, unemployment remains stubbornly high by historical standards and economic
growth is slowboth due in part to high oil prices.
Over the long term, as economic growth recovers,
rising automotive efficiency will play a greater role
in moderating total oil consumption.
Changes in Economic Exposure metrics have largely

corresponded with changes in global oil prices. This
is particularly obvious in the Total Spending on Oil
as a Percentage of GDP metric. Specifically, recordhigh prices that reached $147 per barrel in July 2008
resulted in oil spending of 4.4 percent of GDP in Q3
2008. This corresponded to a normalized metric
score of 96.2, the worst score of any metric over the
entire time period. Total Spending on Net Oil Imports
as a Percentage of GDP has also tracked price movements to a certain extent, and its evolution is similar
to Total Spending on Oil as a Percentage of GDP.
However, the impact of declining net oil imports (as
a result of rising domestic oil production and lower
consumption) is noticeable in recent years as the
evolution of the Total Spending on Net Oil Imports as
a Percentage of GDP metric has diverged somewhat
from the Total Spending on Oil as a Percentage of GDP
metric. Although Oil Exports as a Percentage of Total
Exports by Value have increased, the U.S. economy
remains highly diversified, limiting its economic exposure to any decreases in oil revenue that could result
from lower global oil prices. Moreover, its exports are
almost exclusively of petroleum products, which are
of higher economic value than crude oil and require
a refining infrastructure that complements domestic
exploration and production activities.
100.4
The highest combined score

achieved by the United States
since 2000 (Q1 2013)
The United States Supply Security metrics have also
observed substantial shifts as a result of changes
in consumption and production since 2000. Most
obvious is the sharp decline in the Oil Supply Security
metric as imports rose to exceed 12 mbd in the 2005
to 2007 period and oil had to be sought from additional (and on average less stable) locations. However,
a concurrent decline in consumption accelerated
into 2008 as prices hit historical highs. This decline
was then intensified by the onset of recession, which
coincided with the emergence of meaningful increases
in domestic oil production. As a combined result of
this consumption decline and production surge, the
31
Oil Security Index
figure 20
OIL SECURITY
TREND
U.S. Index Score and Structural Dependency Metrics, Q1 2000 to Q1 2013

105
104
103
index score
102
101
100
99
98
97
96
95
2000
2001
oil intensity
2003
2004
2005
fuel consumption per capita
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
u.s. index score
figure 21
U.S. Index Score and Economic Exposure Metrics, Q1 2000 to Q1 2013
105
104
index score
103
102
101
100
99
98
97
96
95
2000
2001
2003
total spending on oil
2004
2005
2006
2007
total spending on net oil imports
2008
oil exports percent of total exports
u.s. index score
figure 22
U.S. Index Score and Supply Security Metrics, Q1 2000 to Q1 2013
105
104
103
102
index score
32
101
100
99
98
97
96
95
2000
2001
2003
oil supply security

2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
total oil stockholdings percent of consumption
2009
2010
u.s. index score
2011
2012
2013
Oil Security Index
increase in imports observed through 2007 began to

reverse. Net oil imports declined from 2008, strengthening the Oil Supply Security metric score substantially from its low point and in fact propelling it to new
highs in recent quarters. With stockholdings observing
very little change over the time period, declining consumption has had a similarly positive effect on Total Oil
Stockholdings as a Percentage of Consumption.
an uncertain horizon
While many of the United States individual metric
scores have shown improvement, a return of high
and volatile oil prices represents a serious and unpredictable threat to U.S. oil security. A recent example
is supply outages in Libya in early 2011 that caused
global oil prices to spike and contributed to a decline
in U.S. oil security. This decline occurred despite positive trends of rising efficiency and falling oil imports
(and even though U.S. imports of crude oil from Libya
averaged less than 1 percent of total imports in late
2010 and early 2011).48 Continued improvement in
the Oil Intensity and Fuel Consumption Per Capita
metrics in particular will help insulate the economy
from the effects of higher and volatile prices. Increasing domestic production will also have a positive
effect on the Total Spending on Net Oil Imports as a
Percentage of GDP and Oil Supply Security metric
scores, both of which either remain or have been
below 100 for most of the time period, dragging down
the combined score.
48 SAFE/RGE analysis based on data from: U.S. EIA
99.0
The lowest combined

score encountered by the
United States since 2000
(most recently in Q4 2007)
The 0.2 point increase in the combined score over
the past three quarters is clear evidence that the
trends of increased domestic oil production and
improved efficiency are strengthening U.S. oil
security, even in a historically high-price environment. Continued improvements in the Economic
Exposure metrics (assuming that they are not
caused by temporary declines in oil prices or U.S.
economic activity) will be indicative of a growing
resilience to oil price spikes. However, even with
these improvements in its oil security, the United
States would remain far from being truly insulated
from the high and volatile oil prices characteristic
of the global oil market, as its scores for the Total
Spending on Oil as a Percentage of GDP and Total
Spending on Net Oil Imports as a Percentage of
GDP metrics in particular attest.
33
34
Oil Security Index
South Africa
68%
1.03

OIL SECURITY
TREND
Oil Intensity
6
13
9
13
5.8
Oil Supply Security
5
13
0.36
4
13
Fuel Consumption
per Capita
oil security
ranking
9
13
13
13
1
13
1%
4.6%
Oil Exports as a
Percentage of Total
Exports by Value

4.9%
Total Spending on
Percentage of GDP
Facts and Figures
0.0 BBL
0.0 MBD
0.6 MBD
2.1%
Oil Reserves (2012)
Production (2012)
Consumption (2012)
GDP Forecast (2013)
0.0%
0.0 MBD
0.0 MBD
1.9%
Change (2008-2012)
Change (2008-2012)
GDP (2008-2012)*
Oil Security Index
country profile
Most of South Africas domestic energy production

centers on its large coal reserves and significant
coal-to-liquids conversion.
assessment
Although South Africas economy is not particularly
reliant on oil, oil makes up a large share of its import
bill (it ranks 13th in Total Spending on Net Oil Imports
as a Percentage of GDP). Consumption-led growth is
also increasing the countrys demand for petroleum
products with Fuel Consumption per Capita tripling
since 2000. This suggests a substantial, and growing,
vulnerability to supply shocks and changing prices.
Worse still, South Africa remains reliant on oil
imports from countries at higher relative risk of
disruption despite an ongoing shift from the Middle
East toward African counterparts. However, the
countrys relatively low (in absolute terms) demand
for oil suggests that its (relatively high) exposure to
unreliable supply sources is likely to at least remain
somewhat stable in the short-to-medium term.
Reducing oil intensity through efficiency improvements represents South Africas primary opportunity to strengthen oil security.
background
All of South Africas just 15 million barrels of proven
total oil reserves are located offshore of the south
and western coasts.49 Home to 95 percent of the
total coal reserves in Africa (and the ninth largest
reserves in the world), coal accounts for the
majority of its energy production. 50 As a result,
South Africas Sasol has developed the only largescale coal-to-liquid industry currently in operation
(although China is also now building plants), which
became necessary when apartheid-era sanctions
required a greater emphasis on energy self-sufficiency. Of the 180,000 barrels of oil produced daily
49 U.S. EIA, Country Analysis Briefs, South Africa, last updated June 17,
2013
50 Notably, increasing U.S. natural gas production and a subsequent
rise in cheap U.S. coal exports have partly displaced South Africas
own coal exports, forcing them to seek new markets.
in South Africa, 160,000 barrels are synthetic. 51

Sasol has also proposed the construction of a gasto-liquids plant in the United States.
Until very recently, South Africa imported most of its
oil from OPEC countries in the Middle East, particularly Iran. Due to U.S. and international sanctions on
the Iranian oil industry, these imports have since been
replaced by imports from Saudi Arabia, in addition
to Nigeria and Angola. South Africas government is
actively seeking deeper ties with regional partners.52
South Africa is exploring additional ways to diversify
its energy sector so that it will be less reliant on coal
and imports of oil products. In order to decrease
environmental impacts caused by the carbon dioxide
emissions from coal and to strengthen energy security, the country is focusing particularly on the development of potentially sizeable shale gas resources (a
moratorium that had been in place since April 2011
was lifted in September 2012), and energy efficiency
and innovation. In 2010, for example, the Policy to
Support the Energy Efficiency and Demand Side
Management was established. This policy provides
incentives for individuals and industries to purchase
less energy-intense products.53 Earlier this year,
the government also released its Electric Vehicle
Industry Roadmap, which includes incentives for
manufacturers that build more than 5,000 electric
vehicle units. The Roadmap also includes plans to
install charging stations.54 However, the recent sharp
slowdown in economic growth has without question
severely hampered implementation.
51
52
53
54
U.S. EIA, Country Analysis Briefs, South Africa

Id.
IEA, Policies and Measures, South Africa, last updated 2013
Republic of South Africa, South African Government News Agency,
Electronic vehicle industry road map launched, May 2, 2013
35
36
Oil Security Index
Australia
34%
0.63

OIL SECURITY
TREND
Oil Intensity
5
13
8
13
6.1
Oil Supply Security
4
13
1.43
11
13
Fuel Consumption
per Capita
oil security
ranking
5
13
5
13
7
13
4%
2.5%
Oil Exports as a
Percentage of Total
Exports by Value

1.6%
Total Spending on
Percentage of GDP
Facts and Figures
3.0 BBL
0.5 MBD
1.0 MBD
2.5%
Oil Reserves (2012)
Production (2012)
Consumption (2012)
GDP Forecast (2013)
0.2%
-0.1 MBD
0.1 MBD
2.5%
Change (2008-2012)
Change (2008-2012)
GDP (2008-2012)*
Oil Security Index
country profile
With rising oil consumption and falling production, Australia

is increasingly dependent on oil imports to meet its needs.
assessment
In recent years, improvement in Australias oil intensity has stagnated due to the increase in energy-intensive mining driven in large part by Chinas booming
demand for commodities. Australias Fuel Consumption per Capita is also among the highest in the Index
(11th). Despite a decline in domestic oil production,
Australias oil imports are relatively modest. This to
some extent limits the countrys exposure to direct
shortages, and as a result it scores in the upper tier
for Oil Supply Security. The countrys oil stockpiles
are relatively low in comparison to other developed
countries, particularly given its remote location.
Perhaps the most important factor in Australias oil
demand outlook is the possibility of an economic
slowdown in China, which could affect commodities
(metals and natural gas) demand and by consequence reduce oil demand in Australias mining
sector. This is particularly true in the short-tomedium term. While Chinas slowdown will, on the
positive side, dampen Australias oil consumption in
this way and therefore decrease its vulnerability to
oil price changes, it will also have a negative impact
on Australian economic growth.
commercially, but the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates Australia holds more than 17
billion barrels of recoverable shale oil.57 With ample
reserves, a stable government, and a strategic location near major Asian oil markets, Australia has the
potential to be one of the next countries with commercially viable shale oil production.58 However, due to
the remoteness of many of Australias shale oil basins,
in addition to other factors that increase costs, their
development will likely advance at a slow pace.
17billion
Barrels of estimated
recoverable reserves of
shale oil in Australia
The transportation sector accounts for 74 percent

of Australias total oil consumption.59 The mining,
refining, and petrochemicals industries are also
meaningful consumers and have contributed to most
of Australias oil demand growth in recent years.60
background
Australia is heavily dependent on oil as its primary
energy source (36 percent of the countrys total
energy use).55 And though the country has proved
reserves of 3.9 billion barrels, it has become increasingly dependent on oil imports that today total more
than 0.5 mbd (up from less than 0.15 mbd on average
through the 1980s and 1990s).56 This divergence
reflects a 0.3 mbd decline in production since 2004
and a 0.2 mbd increase in consumption.
International firms dominate Australias oil industry,
and the pipeline network is privately owned and
operated. Shale oil is not currently being produced
55 U.S. EIA, Country Analysis Briefs, Australia, last updated June 21, 2013
56 BP, plc., Statistical Review 2013, at 6
57 U.S. EIA, Technically Recoverable Shale Oil and Shale Gas Resources: An Assessment of 137 Shale Formations in 41 Countries Outside
the United States, June 13, 2013, Table 4, at 8
58 Id., at III-1 or 85
59 U.S. EIA, Country Analysis Briefs, Australia
60 Id.
37
38
Oil Security Index
Brazil
24%
5.0
Oil Supply Security
1.07

0.31
3
13
8
13
Oil Intensity
10
13
11
13
OIL SECURITY
TREND
Fuel Consumption
per Capita
oil security
ranking
7
13
7
13
5
13
7%
3.7%
Oil Exports as a
Percentage of Total
Exports by Value

0.2%
Total Spending on
Percentage of GDP
Facts and Figures
15.3 BBL
2.1 MBD
2.8 MBD
2.5%
Oil Reserves (2012)
Production (2012)
Consumption (2012)
GDP Forecast (2013)
0.9%
0.3 MBD
0.4 MBD
3.2%
Change (2008-2012)
Change (2008-2012)
GDP (2008-2012)*
Oil Security Index
country profile
Brazil is a leading oil consumer and producer. The country

uses substantial quantities of ethanol as a transportation
alternative to oil and also recently discovered one of the
largest oil reservoirs in the world.
assessment
Despite (and occasionally because of) the sizeable
use of ethanol as an alternative to oil in the transportation sector, Brazilian consumers pay a relatively
high price for retail fuel but consume among the
lowest quantities on a per capita basis (it currently
ranks 3rd in Fuel Consumption per Capita). The countrys Oil Intensity is, however, among the worst in the
Index (10th). Like most developing countries, Brazil
also has limited oil stockpiles upon which to call in the
event of a supply shock.
Over the longer term, the return of domestic oil
production growth (and even exports) would be
particularly welcome. Further diversification of
transportation fuels (including alternatives to ethanol
blending that provides few price benefits) is also likely
to help strengthen Brazils oil security.
background
Brazil is the worlds seventh largest oil consumer and
thirteenth largest oil producer.61 Although production
plateaued in 2010, the medium- and long-term forecast is positive thanks to the discovery of new and
very large deepwater reserves known as pre-salt,
which are expected to help increase output by 30 to
35 percent by 2018.62
Petrobras, the countrys largest oil company, will be
the primary developer of the pre-salt formations. While
Petrobras is known as one of the most technologically
advanced oil companies in the world, the depth of the
pre-salts will make extraction costly.63 Such rising
costs, in addition to high inflation and rising interest
rates, could hinder or prompt delays in development.
The governments desire to boost domestic manufacturing (e.g. through local content requirements) and
61 BP, plc., Statistical Review 2013, at 8 and 9
62 IEA, MTOMR 2013, at 50
63 See, e.g., Forbes, Brazil: Strategic Planning For Pre-Salt, July 8, 2010
employment is also likely to raise costs and extend

timelines. Partly due to the technological complexity
associated with developing these deepwater reserves,
Petrobras has moved to partner with other oil companies, seeking both capital and expertise.
2%
Decline in Brazilian oil

production between 2011 and
2012 (the first decline since
2004 and largest since 1988)
Brazil has also actively looked to diversify its transportation fuel sources through the use of ethanol,
and since the introduction of flex-fuel cars (capable
of functioning on both gasoline and ethanol) in 2003,
both ethanol production and consumption have generally increased at a steady pace. However, a combination of high global sugar prices, a poor domestic
sugar cane harvest, and petrol and diesel price
controls helped caused a decline in domestic ethanol
production in 2011. This forced Brazil to import corn
ethanol from the United States.64 In response to the
shortage, the government temporarily lowered the
gasoline blend requirement from 25 to 20 percent.65
Although ethanol production has not yet returned to
pre-2011 levels, in May 2013 the blending requirement
was raised once again to 25 percent.66
64 U.S. EIA, Country Analysis Briefs, Brazil, last updated February 28, 2012
65 Id.
66 IEA, MTOMR 2013, at 76; and Renewable Fuel Association, Statistics,
World Fuel Ethanol Production, annual data for Brazil 2008 to 2012
39
40
Oil Security Index
China
18%
0.98

OIL SECURITY
TREND
Oil Intensity
7
13
12
13
4.4
Oil Supply Security
12
13
0.18
2
13
Fuel Consumption
per Capita
oil security
ranking
8
13
11
13
3
13
1%
4.0%
Oil Exports as a
Percentage of Total
Exports by Value

2.5%
Total Spending on
Percentage of GDP
Facts and Figures
17.3 BBL
4.2 MBD
10.2 MBD
7.5%
Oil Reserves (2012)
Production (2012)
Consumption (2012)
GDP Forecast (2013)
1.0%
0.3 MBD
2.3 MBD
9.3%
Change (2008-2012)
Change (2008-2012)
GDP (2008-2012)*
Oil Security Index
country profile
China is the worlds second largest oil consumer. Although

also a major oil producer, the country is becoming increasingly
reliant on imports to keep pace with growing demand.
assessment
Despite improvements in vehicle efficiency, China
remains heavily reliant on oil and, increasingly, oil
imports (the country ranks 11th in Total Spending on
Net Oil Imports as a Percentage of GDP). The country
also relies heavily on relatively unstable and unpredictable regimes in the Middle East and West Africa,
as well as Russia.
Chinas strategic reserves are small relative to
consumption but have increased rapidly in recent
years and are set to rise further. Substantial further
improvement in efficiency and the use of alternative
transportation fuels will be necessary to limit the
countrys rapidly growing oil consumption over the
longer term.
background
Until the early 1990s, Chinese oil production outpaced
consumption and China was a net oil exporter.67 Since
then, economic growth has spurred an increase in
demand of more than 7 mbd (to more than 10 mbd in
total) and an increasingly heavy reliance on imports.68
This increase has underpinned global demand growth
(40 percent of the total increase between 2011 and
2012 is attributed to China).69 This dynamic is forecast
to continue as commercial freight and personal motor
vehicle ownership rates increase.70
China has produced an average of 3.8 mbd over the
past decade.71 However, large domestic oil fields in
the northeast have been harvested since the 1960s,
and production is expected to decline in the coming
years. To compensate for expected future declines,
exploration has moved to the western provinces and
67
68
69
70
71
U.S. EIA, Country Analysis Briefs, China, last updated April 22, 2013
BP, plc., Statistical Review 2013, historical data
IEA, MTOMR 2013, at 33
Automotive News, Ford says its China sales growth will outpace
industry, June 26, 2013
BP, plc., Statistical Review 2013, historical data
offshore locations. There are plans to construct more

than 12,000 miles of pipeline by 2015 to accommodate new resources and currently unconnected parts
of the country.72
Due to its increasing reliance on the global oil market,
China has actively promoted oil exploration and
development in 31 countries across multiple regions,
including the Middle East, Latin America, and Africa.73
Since 2009, Chinese NOCs have invested $18 billion
in energy acquisitions for oil and natural gas on five
different continents.74 With imports expected to comprise 75 percent of Chinas oil supply by 2035, diversification of its import sources is a priority.75 Chinas
investments also help strengthen its vertical supply
chains. China announced the construction of strategic
reserves of crude oil in 2001 and completed Phase 1 (of
3) in 2008 (approximately 100 million barrels). Phase
2 is expected to be completed by the end of 2015
(approximately another 240 million barrels). Although
China does not publish official estimates, estimates
by the IEA suggest that at least 150 million barrels of
storage are already filled.76
In response to the widening gap between oil consumption and domestic production, Chinas most
recent Five-Year Economic Plan includes a goal to
achieve 11.4 percent non-fossil fuel consumption by
2015. The country has also implemented vehicle fuel
efficiency standards similar to those established in
the European Union (47 miles per gallon by 2025).77
72 U.S. EIA, Country Analysis Briefs, China

73 Radio Free Asia, Chinas Economy Slows Oil Growth, May 27, 2013
74 Wall Street Journal, China Push in Canada Is Biggest Foreign Buy,
July 24, 2012
75 U.S. EIA, Country Analysis Briefs, China
76 IEA, MTOMR 2013, at 119
77 Green Car Reports, China Imposes Much Tougher Fuel-Efficiency
Standards On New Cars, March 22, 2013
41
42
Oil Security Index
Mexico
30%
1.01

5.6
Oil Intensity
8
13
9
13
Oil Supply Security
OIL SECURITY
TREND
10
6
13
oil security
ranking
9
13
14%
0.46
6
13
Fuel Consumption
per Capita
11
13
5.4%
4
13
Oil Exports as a
Percentage of Total
Exports by Value

-2.4%
Total Spending on
Percentage of GDP
Facts and Figures
11.4 BBL
2.9 MBD
2.1 MBD
2.9%
Oil Reserves (2012)
Production (2012)
Consumption (2012)
GDP Forecast (2013)
0.7%
-0.3 MBD
0.0 MBD
1.7%
Change (2008-2012)
Change (2008-2012)
GDP (2008-2012)*
Oil Security Index
country profile
Despite marked declines in oil production since 2004,

Mexico remains one of the worlds major oil producers.
assessment
Mexicos relatively high level of oil production and oil
exports, and improving demand-side efficiency, have
helped improve its oil security outlook in recent years,
though fiscal reliance on oil remains a vulnerability. The
countrys Total Spending on Oil as a Percentage of GDP
is also among the highest in the Index (5.4 percent).
between oil production and Mexicos economic

prosperity, recently elected President Enrique Pea
Nieto has made energy reform a top priority, with a
focus on making the oil industry more productive
and sustainable. Part of the proposed reform is
additional investment of $10 billion per year through
2025. The government forecasts that oil production
would rise by 1 mbd as a result.82
The current governments commitment to industry

reform is on a promising track, particularly after the
2013 local elections, and suggests there could be a
reversal in the downward oil-production trend. Such
reform would be supportive of economic growth as
well as Mexican and North American oil security in the
medium term. However, implementation may be slow.
$10 billion
background
The Mexican government created Petrleos Mexicanos (PEMEX) when it nationalized its oil industry in
1938. Today, PEMEX is the largest company in Mexico
and plays a vital role in the Mexican economy, with oil
accounting for 34 percent of total government revenues in 2011.78 Because its revenues support other
sectors of the economy, Pemex has had to compete
for funding to direct toward upstream capital expenditure, which has undermined production and led to a
loss of skilled workers.
Mexico holds 11.4 billion barrels of proven oil
reserves, and approximately 75 percent of those
reserves are located offshore in the Gulf of Mexico.79
PEMEX is one of the largest oil companies in the
world, yet last year it posted negative net income,
limiting its ability to invest in exploration and production. (PEMEXs oil production has in fact fallen
steadily since 2004, from 3.8 mbd to just 2.9 mbd
in 2012.)80 Absent other policy changes, Mexicos
oil production is currently forecast to decline by
1.4 mbd by 2025.81 However, due to the close link
78
79
80
81
U.S. EIA, Country Analysis Briefs, Mexico, last updated October 17, 2012
Id.; and BP, plc., Statistical Review 2013, historical data
BP, plc. Statistical Review 2013, at 8
Id., at 46; and U.S. EIA, Country Analysis Briefs, Mexico
Proposed annual Mexican

government investment
in the oil industry through
2025 as part of a recentlyannounced reform package
Mexico has developed a symbiotic oil trade relationship with the United States. Last year, the United
States received a majority of Mexicos oil exports
(approximately 1 mbd), while Mexico received nearly
0.6 mbd of U.S. refined petroleum products (Mexico
experienced modest economic growth in 2012 of 3.9
percent that spurred demand for oil products such as
gasoline).83, 84 Despite Mexicos declining production,
this partnership remains extremely valuable for each
country with energy trade between the two topping
$65 billion in 2012.85
82 Financial Times, Reform will boost oil investment by $10bn a year,

says Pemex chief, August 15, 2013
83 U.S. EIA, Today in Energy, Mexico Week: Crude oil moving north, products moving south characterizes U.S.-Mexico trade, May 15, 2013
84 World Bank, Mexico, Overview
85 Id., Mexico Week: U.S. is Mexicos primary energy trade partner
amid shifting trade dynamics, May 13, 2013
43
44
Oil Security Index
India
25%
4.6
Oil Supply Security
1.21

10
13
0.04
1
13
oil security
ranking
10
13
Oil Intensity
11
13
11
10
13
OIL SECURITY
TREND
Fuel Consumption
per Capita
12
13
12
13
18%
6.1%
Oil Exports as a
Percentage of Total
Exports by Value

4.8%
Total Spending on
Percentage of GDP
Facts and Figures
5.7 BBL
0.9 MBD
3.7 MBD
5.4%
Oil Reserves (2012)
Production (2012)
Consumption (2012)
GDP Forecast (2013)
0.3%
0.1 MBD
0.6 MBD
7.3%
Change (2008-2012)
Change (2008-2012)
GDP (2008-2012)*
Oil Security Index
country profile
India is already the fourth largest oil consumer in the world

and has significant potential for future demand growth.
assessment
Although the oil intensity of Indias economy has
decreased by 30 percent since 2000, the volumes of
oil being consumed and imported have risen sharply,
undermining its fiscal and external balances (it currently ranks 12th in Total Spending on Net Oil Imports
as a Percentage of GDP). Furthermore, despite a
reduction in consumption subsidies, population
and income growth are increasing per capita fuel
consumption from todays low levels (currently 1st on
this metric)a trend that should continue in the long
term despite recent sluggish growth.
Indias state-owned enterprises are increasing
involvement abroad to establish more diversified oil
supplies (this includes Africa, from where it imported
no oil less than a decade ago, Iraq, and Venezuela).
Efficiency measures will almost certainly be required
over the longer term also if the country is not to
observe further erosion of its oil security.
background
Like most developing nations, Indias strong economic growth has triggered an increase in energy
and oil consumption. Between 1990 and 2011,
Indias energy consumption doubled. Indias largest
energy source is coal (42 percent) followed by oil and
biomass (both 23 percent).86 Indias oil consumption
grew from 2.5 mbd in 2003 to 3.7 mbd in 2012.87 It is
forecast to grow further (4.4 mbd in 2018) as the size
of the vehicle fleet increases.88 As in most countries,
oil in India is used primarily for transportation, especially in personal vehicles, although widespread use
of natural gas in public transportation could diminish
demand for oil products to some extent.
The country is currently the worlds fourth largest

oil importer, relying on imports for 70 percent of
its needs. Imported oil is primarily sourced from
the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia and Iran
(although it is important to note that with international sanctions on Irans oil sector being strengthened, pressure will likely rise on India to stop buying
oil from Iran). Efforts are underway to strengthen
stakes in foreign production activities, and stimulate
domestic exploration and production, though Indian
overseas companies lack the investment capital of
their Chinese counterparts. The efforts also include
developing onshore and offshore reserves (estimated
at 5.5 billion barrels) and investing in refinery capacity (including reform of customs duties on petroleum
products).90 Finally, India is building oil stocks equivalent to 60 days of consumption (or approximately 150
million barrels) in order to increase oil security in the
event of a direct supply disruption.91
47%
Increase in Indian oil

consumption between
2003 and 2012
To help facilitate market-based adjustments on the
consumption side, between 2002 and 2010, the government deregulated end-use prices that historically
were heavily subsidized.92 Nevertheless, gasoline
demand is still forecast to rise by an average of 5.4
percent per annum through 2018.93
The government has recently focused on accommodating the rapid increases in energy demand and
set a goal of being energy self-sufficient by 2030.89
86
87
88
89
U.S. EIA, Country Analysis Briefs, India, last updated March 18, 2013
BP, plc., Statistical Review 2013, at 9
IEA, MTOMR 2013, at 24, and Table 2, at 143
U.S. EIA, Country Analysis Briefs, India
90 Id.
91 IEA, Oil and Gas Emergency Policy - India 2007 update, last updated
2013
92 Id.
45
46
Oil Security Index
Russia
11%
3.1
12
13
13
12
13
Oil Intensity
12
13
13
13
Oil Supply Security
2.58

OIL SECURITY
TREND
0.43
5
13
Fuel Consumption
per Capita
oil security
ranking
51%
10
13
5.0%
2
13
Oil Exports as a
Percentage of Total
Exports by Value

-13.1%
Total Spending on
Percentage of GDP
Facts and Figures
87.2 BBL
10.6 MBD
3.2 MBD
1.8%
Oil Reserves (2012)
Production (2012)
Consumption (2012)
GDP Forecast (2013)
5.2%
0.7 MBD
0.3 MBD
1.8%
Change (2008-2012)
Change (2008-2012)
GDP (2008-2012)*
Oil Security Index
country profile
Russia is currently the worlds second largest oil

producer and exporter and home to the eighth largest
proved reserves.
assessment
Russias high oil intensity, limited oil stockpiles, and
heavy dependence of its fiscal account on oil export
revenues contribute to a low ranking. As a result of its
poor business environment and policy uncertainty,
Russias Oil Supply Security is also the lowest (3.1)
despite being a major oil producer.
Rising levels of vehicle ownership and limited efforts
to strengthen fuel efficiency suggest that per capita
fuel consumption is set to increase. Russia is also yet
to invest extensively in new export channels, leaving
it reliant on Europe, where demand is shrinking and
buyers are wary of Russias closely-linked energy and
foreign policy goals. An emergent shift towards Asia is
likely to help mitigate this concern over the long term.
background
Russia is currently the worlds largest non-OPEC oil
producer and second largest oil producer overall
rivaling Saudi Arabia. With reserves of 87 billion barrels,
production could increase with additional infrastructure investment, but capital expenditure is somewhat
capped due to fiscal and regulatory constraints.94
Russias oil exports account for approximately 15
percent of GDP, 50 percent of total goods exports,
and more than half of its government revenues. The
economy is as a result sensitive to oil price movements.
For example, the economy contracted 7.8 percent
in 2009 after oil prices declined from 2008 highs,
reducing government revenues, accelerating capital
outflows, and leading to sharp reductions in inventories (especially of natural gas).95 Seventy-eight percent
of Russias oil exports go to European marketsof
which Germany, Netherlands, and Poland are the main
recipients.96 Russias second largest market is Asia
94 BP, plc., Statistical Review, at 6
95 World Bank, Data, GDP growth (annual %)
96 U.S. EIA, Country Analysis Briefs, Russia, last updated September
18, 2012
and the country is currently increasing oil supplies to

China at an annual rate of 50 percent.97
Oil production is dominated by domestic firms, of
which state-owned Rosneft is the largest. Some international oil companies do have operations in Russia
(mainly through joint-venture), although these have
not been without their challenges (e.g. TNK-BP, which
was mired by disputes over ownership before being
acquired by Rosneft in 2013, approximately a decade
after being created). Transneft, a state-owned monopoly, controls Russias pipeline network. Russias oil and
gas sector continues to be affected by high taxes and
export duties (and a recent proposal would raise the
fuel export duty from 66 to 72 percent), but the government is also planning to implement tax incentives to
encourage the development of a number of resources
including tight oil and those in the Arctic shelf.98 Uncertainty about taxes and royalties undermine investment
and leave Russias companies seeking capital from
foreign partners, mostly from Asia, to build necessary
infrastructure.
On the demand side, Russias oil consumption
averaged 3.3 mbd in 2012 and is projected to grow
by 3 percent in 2013.99 A major contributing factor
is car ownership, which has increased 35 percent
(to 271 vehicles per 1,000 people) since 2004.100
Although considered economically and financially
viable, improvements to public transportation and
implementing fuel-economy standards remain a low
political priority and therefore unlikely to materialize
in the short term.
97 Globe and Mail, Reuters, Russia ramps up oil exports to China in

strategic shift, June 18, 2013
99 Id., Table 2, at 143; and BP, plc., Statistical Review, at 9
100 World Bank, Data, Motor vehicles (per 1,000 people)
47
48
Oil Security Index
Saudi Arabia
185%
3.63

OIL SECURITY
TREND
Oil Intensity
1
13
5.3
Oil Supply Security
13
13
1.85
13
7
13
13
13
oil security
ranking
88%
13
13
10.3%
1
13
Oil Exports as a
Percentage of Total
Exports by Value
Fuel Consumption
per Capita
13
13

-38.6%
Total Spending on
Percentage of GDP
Facts and Figures
265.9 BBL
11.5 MBD
2.9 MBD
5.1%
Oil Reserves (2012)
Production (2012)
Consumption (2012)
GDP Forecast (2013)
15.9%
0.9 MBD
0.6 MBD
4.3%
Change (2008-2012)
Change (2008-2012)
GDP (2008-2012)*
Oil Security Index
country profile
Saudi Arabia is currently the worlds largest oil producer

and exporter. The country holds the worlds second largest
proved oil reserves and the only sizeable quantities of
spare oil production capacity.
assessment
Saudi Arabias high oil intensity, rising domestic
energy use, and fiscal reliance on oil make it very
vulnerable to changing oil prices. The oil intensity of
the economy and the average fuel use per capita is
high and rising, about 10 times and 3 times greater
respectively than the most efficient countries.
Efficiency measures and the phase-out of subsidies
will be important in tempering demand growth over
the long term and maintaining oil-export levels.
Economic diversification is also necessary to reduce
the countrys vulnerability to disruptive events in the
marketplace such as weak economic conditions or
closures of oil shipment routes.
infrastructure spending, and also implemented a

minimum wage. In 2013, spending was increased by
almost 20 percent to a record $219 billion.104 These
measures have reinforced the need for oil revenues.
While the country remains the second largest
exporter to the United States, the destinations of its
approximately 7.5 mbd oil exports in 2012 continue
to pivot towards AsiaJapan (1.1 mbd), China (1.1
mbd), South Korea (0.8 mbd), and India (0.7 mbd).105
Arguably, one of Saudi Arabias greatest vulnerabilities is therefore the blockage or closure of a major
transit route for its Asia-bound exports, such as the
Strait of Hormuz. Pipeline bypasses in the event of
such a disruption remain limited, with full operational
capacity estimated at just 1 mbd to 2.8 mbd.106
background
Although Saudi Arabias oil consumption has risen
rapidly over the past decade to nearly 3 mbd, the
country is more commonly recognized as an oil producer, exporter, and the de facto leader of OPEC by
virtue of holding the cartels only meaningful spare
capacity (an estimated 2.3 mbd in Q2 2013).101 The
countrys oil exploration, development, and production are controlled by the government-backed Saudi
Aramco, with foreign companies restricted only to
service contract roles.
Saudi Arabia is estimated to require average oil prices
of at least $85 per barrel to balance its fiscal outlays in
2014.102 It has historically depended on oil export revenues for almost 90 percent of its total export revenues
and 85 percent of fiscal revenues.103 Although government spending accelerated in 2008-09, helping
to stimulate the economy and bring additional wealth
to Saudi citizens in the aftermath of the Arab Spring,
Saudi leaders have continued to increase social and
101 U.S. EIA, STEO, August 2013, at 3
102 IMF, Regional Economic Outlook, Middle East and Central Asia,
Statistical Appendix, Table 6
103 OPEC, Annual Statistical Bulletin 2012, Tables 1.2 and 2.4, at 11 and 17
The rapid rise in oil consumption is primarily a result of

strong population growth and heavily subsidized fuel
prices. The burning of oil for power generation adds to
the governments dilemma. This problem is particularly
acute in the summer months, when direct oil burn tends
to more than double to above 0.7 mbd.107 While only
minimal steps have been taken to eliminate subsidies,
Saudi leaders have begun to promote efficiency and
alternatives to oil. Saudi Aramco has, for example,
sought natural gas to displace oil usethough exploration has so far borne little fruit, suggesting any evolution
could be slow.108 The planned development of nuclear
and renewable power plants (16 plants over the next
20 years and an ambitious solar power build-out) could
also reduce the reliance on oil in the power mix.109
104 See, e.g., Reuters, Analysis: Arab Spring diverts part of Gulf petrodollar flows, January 30, 2013
105 U.S. EIA, Country Analysis Briefs, Saudi Arabia, last updated February 26, 2013
106 Id., World Transit Chokepoints, last updated August 22, 2013
107 Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES), Summer Again: The
Swing in Oil Demand in Saudi Arabia, Figure 2, at 5, July 2013
108 See, e.g., Rigzone.com, Saudi Aramco to Drill 7 Gas Exploration
Wells in Tabuk Province, December 31, 2012
109 OIES, Summer Again, at 6-7
49
50
Oil Security Index
acknowledgements
Securing Americas Future Energy (SAFE) is a nonpartisan, not-for-profit

organization committed to reducing Americas dependence on oil and
improving U.S. energy security in order to bolster national security and
strengthen the economy. SAFE has an action-oriented strategy addressing
politics and advocacy, business and technology, and media and public
education. More information can be found at SecureEnergy.org.
Roubini Global Economics (RGE) is an independent, global macro-economic

strategy research and country risk firm founded in 2004 by renowned economist
Nouriel Roubini. RGE research interprets global economic signals into practical
macro-strategy insight for a wide range of financial and policy professionals.
RGEs Country Risk product offers a unique approach to measuring country risk,
delivering analysis that is consistent across time and ignores market noise. Our
research approach broadens our clients understanding of global economies
and markets by illustrating vulnerabilities and risks; giving them constructive
frameworks for clarity and helping them to make more informed decisions. RGE
is headquartered in New York and also has an office in London.
Data Sources
DataAnnual
for the
Index is gathered from a variety of sources including BP, International Energy Agency, World
*Average
Growth
Bank, Joint Oil Data Initiative, United Nations, OPEC, Bloomberg, Haver, and Roubini Global Economics.
oil security index

The Oil Security Index is an analytical tool developed by Securing
Americas Future Energy in partnership with Roubini Global
Economics. The Index is designed to be an intuitive tool for
policymakers, business leaders, and the general public to easily
measure and compare the relative oil security of more than a
dozen countries around the world.
Learn more at OilSecurityIndex.org
1111 19th Street, NW, Suite 406
95 Morton Street, 6th Floor
Washington, DC 20036
New York, NY 10014
(202) 461-2360
(212) 645-0010
SecureEnergy.org
Roubini.com

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