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Individual Assignment 1 (IBS)

This document contains solutions to 15 questions from a probability and statistics problem set. It includes calculations of probabilities of events occurring based on given probabilities and combinations of outcomes. For example, it calculates the probability of getting no sixes when rolling two dice as 25/36. It also calculates conditional probabilities, such as the probability of noticing an advertisement as 0.57 given probabilities of seeing it on TV, radio or in the newspaper. Finally, it calculates the probability of India winning a 5-match series against Pakistan as 0.8965.

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Sourav Sharma
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58 views4 pages

Individual Assignment 1 (IBS)

This document contains solutions to 15 questions from a probability and statistics problem set. It includes calculations of probabilities of events occurring based on given probabilities and combinations of outcomes. For example, it calculates the probability of getting no sixes when rolling two dice as 25/36. It also calculates conditional probabilities, such as the probability of noticing an advertisement as 0.57 given probabilities of seeing it on TV, radio or in the newspaper. Finally, it calculates the probability of India winning a 5-match series against Pakistan as 0.8965.

Uploaded by

Sourav Sharma
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Individual Assignment Introduction to Business Statistics (IBS)

Name: Sourav Sharma, Roll No. 2015EPGP035

Solution to Question No. 2 of Problem Set:Probability that a lab specimen contains a high level of
contamination
Hence, probability that a lab specimen does not contain a
high level of contamination
(i)

Probability that none contains high level of


contamination

(ii)

Probability that exactly one contains high level


of contamination

(iii)

Probability that at least one contains high level


of contamination

= P(C)

[say]

= 0.10
= 1 P(C)
= 1 0.10
= 0.90
= (0.90)^5
= 0.59049
= (No. of ways of choosing
1 out of 5 samples) x
P(C) x [1 P(C)]^4
= 5 x 0.10 x 0.90^4
= 0.32805
= 1 Probability that none
contains high level of
contamination
= 1 0.59049
= 0.40951

Solution to Question No. 4 of Problem Set:Probability of not getting a six on the first dice
Similarly, Probability of not getting a six on the second
dice
Hence, probability of getting no sixes on the two dice
(i)

Probability of getting at least one six

If the two faces turn up different, total number of possible


combinations
st

If there is a six on the 1 dice, total number of


possibilities for 2nd dice
If there is a six on the 2nd dice, total number of
possibilities for 1st dice
Total number of favourable outcomes of getting at least
one six when both faces turn up different
(ii)

Probability of getting at least one six if the two


faces that turn up are different

= 5/6
= 5/6
= (5/6) x (5/6)
= 25/36
= 1 Probability of getting
no sixes
= (1 25/36)
= 11/36
= 6x5
= 30
= 5
= 5
= 5+5
= 10
= No. of favourable
outcomes / Total no. of
outcomes
1

= 10/30
= 1/3

Solution to Question No. 6 of Problem Set:Box1 contains : 6 Red balls & 4 Green balls
Box2 contains : 7 Red balls & 3 Green balls
Probability of selecting a red ball from Box1
The red ball from Box1 is put into Box2.
Hence Box2 now contains 8 Red balls & 3 Green balls.
Probability of selecting a red ball from Box2
(i)
Probability that a red ball is selected from the
first box and a red ball is selected from the
second box

= 6/10
= 8/11
= (6/10) x (8/11)

= 48/110
= 24/55
If at the end of the process (i.e. selecting a ball from first box and putting it in second
box and then selecting a ball from second box and putting it in first box), we have the
same number of red and green balls in the first box as it had in the beginning, it
implies that:a. Either a red ball was selected from first box and a red ball was selected from
second box,
b. Or, a green ball was selected from first box and a green ball was selected from
second box.
The probability of (a) has been obtained in Part (i) of the problem.
Probability of selecting a green ball from Box1
= 4/10
The green ball from Box1 is put into Box2.
Hence Box2 now contains 7 Red balls & 4 Green balls.
Probability of selecting a green ball from Box2
= 4/11
Probability that a green ball is selected from the first box
= (4/10) x (4/11)
and a green ball is selected from the second box
= 16/110
= 8/55
(ii)
Probability that at the end of this process, the
= (24/55) + (8/55)
first box has the same number of red and green
balls as it had in the beginning
= 32/55

Solution to Question No. 7 of Problem Set:Probability of watching the advertisement on TV = P(T) = 0.4
Probability of listening to the advertisement on radio = P(R) = 0.15
Probability of reading the advertisement in newspaper = P(N) = 0.3 [So, P( N )
= 1 P(N) = 0.7]
The following are also provided:P(R|N) = 0.1
P(T|N) = 0.6
P(RUT|N) P(RT|N) = 0.65
P( R U T | N ) = 0.90

-------------------------------- (1)
-------------------------------- (2)
2

From eqn. (1), we have


P(R|N) + P(T|N) P(RT|N) P(RT|N) = 0.65
Or, 0.1 + 0.6 2 x P(RT|N) = 0.65
Or, P(RT|N) = 0.025
-------------------------------- (3)

From eqn. (3), we have


P(RTN) / P(N) = 0.025
Or, P(RTN) = 0.025 X 0.3 = 0.0075
From eqn. (2), we have
P(RT | N ) = 0.9
1 P( RT|N ) = 0.9
Or,

P( RT|N ) = 0.1

---------------------------------------- (4)

Also, we can write:P(RN) = P(R|N) X P(N) = 0.1 X 0.3 = 0.03


P(TN) = P(T|N) X P(N) = 0.6 X 0.3 = 0.18
P(RT) = P(RT|N) X P(N) + P( RT|N ) X P( N ) = 0.025 X 0.3 + 0.1 X 0.7 =
0.0775
We have to find the probability that a potential customer has noticed the
advertisement of sale.
i.e. P (R U T U N) = P(R) + P(T) + P(N) P(RT) P(TN) P(RN) + P(RTN)
= 0.15 + 0.4 + 0.3 0.0775 0.18 0.03 + 0.0075
= 0.57

Solution to Question No. 15 of Problem Set:India can


(i)
(ii)
(iii)

win the 5 match series with Pakistan if it :Wins 3 matches, or


Wins 4 matches, or
Wins 5 matches.

Probability of India winning a match against Pakistan = P(W) = 0.75


Probability of India losing a match against Pakistan = P(L) = 1 P(W) = 1 0.75
= 0.25
Considering only two cases i.e. a match can either be won or lost by India, we
can say
Probability of winning 3 matches = 5C3 x 0.753 x 0.252 = 10 x 0.753 x 0.252 =
0.2637
Probability of winning 4 matches = 5C4 x 0.754 x 0.25 = 10 x 0.754 x 0.25 =
0.3955
Probability of winning 5 matches = 5C5 x 0.755 = 0.755 = 0.2373
3

Thus probability of winning the series = 0.2637 + 0.3955 + 0.2373 = 0.8965


----xx----

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