1 Analysis Syria

ANALYSIS SYRIA
West will facilitate rise of Islamic State in order to isolate the Syrian
regime: 2012 DIA document
A Defense Intelligence Agency document notes that the supporters of the
Syrian opposition seek to establish an Islamic state to isolate the Assad regime.
by Brad Hoff
May 21, 2015 No Comments
On Monday, May 18, the conservative government watchdog group Judicial
Watchpublished a selection of formerly classified documents obtained from the
U.S. Department of Defense and State Department through a federal lawsuit.
While initial mainstream media reporting is focused on the White Houses
handling of the Benghazi consulate attack, a much bigger picture admission and
confirmation is contained in one of the Defense Intelligence Agency documents
circulated in 2012: that an Islamic State is desired in Eastern Syria to effect
the Wests policies in the region.
ANALYSIS SYRIA
West will facilitate rise of Islamic State in order to isolate the Syrian
regime: 2012 DIA document
A Defense Intelligence Agency document notes that the supporters of the
Syrian opposition seek to establish an Islamic state to isolate the Assad regime.
by Brad Hoff
May 21, 2015 No Comments
On Monday, May 18, the conservative government watchdog group Judicial
Watchpublished a selection of formerly classified documents obtained from the
U.S. Department of Defense and State Department through a federal lawsuit.
While initial mainstream media reporting is focused on the White Houses
handling of the Benghazi consulate attack, a much bigger picture admission and
confirmation is contained in one of theDefense Intelligence Agency documents
circulated in 2012: that an Islamic State is desired in Eastern Syria to effect
the Wests policies in the region.
A Defense Intelligence Agency

document notes that the supporters of the Syrian opposition seek to establish
an Islamic state to isolate the Assad regime.
Astoundingly, the newly declassified report states that for THE WEST, GULF
COUNTRIES, AND TURKEY [WHO] SUPPORT THE [SYRIAN] OPPOSITION
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ESTABLISHING A DECLARED OR

UNDECLARED SALAFIST PRINCIPALITY IN EASTERN SYRIA (HASAKA AND
DER ZOR), AND THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT THE SUPPORTING POWERS TO
THE OPPOSITION WANT, IN ORDER TO ISOLATE THE SYRIAN REGIME.
The DIA report, formerly classified SECRET//NOFORN and dated August 12,
2012, was circulated widely among various government agencies, including
CENTCOM, the CIA, FBI, DHS, NGA, State Dept., and many others.
The document shows that as early as 2012, U.S. intelligence predicted the rise
of the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL or ISIS), but instead of
clearly delineating the group as an enemy, the report envisions the terror group
as a U.S. strategic asset.
While a number of analysts and journalists have documented long ago the role of
western intelligence agencies in the formation and training of the armed
opposition in Syria, this is the highest level internal U.S. intelligence
confirmation of the theory that western governments fundamentally see ISIS
as their own tool for regime change in Syria. The document matter-of-factly
states just that scenario.
Forensic evidence, video evidence, as well as recent admissions of high-level
officials involved (see former Ambassador to Syria Robert Fords
admissions here and here), have since proven the State Department and CIAs
material support of ISIS terrorists on the Syrian battlefield going back to at
least 2012 and 2013 (for a clear example of forensic evidence: see UKbased Conflict Armament Researchs report which traced the origins of Croatian
anti-tank rockets recovered from ISIS fighters back to a Saudi/CIA joint
program via identifiable serial numbers).
The newly released DIA report makes the following summary points concerning
ISI (in 2012 Islamic State in Iraq,) and the soon to emerge ISIS:
Al-Qaeda drives the opposition in Syria
The West identifies with the opposition
The establishment of a nascent Islamic State became a reality only with
the rise of the Syrian insurgency (there is no mention of U.S. troop
withdrawal from Iraq as a catalyst for Islamic States rise, which is the
contention of innumerable politicians and pundits; see section 4.D. below)
The establishment of a Salafist Principality in Eastern Syria is exactly
what the external powers supporting the opposition want (identified as
the West, Gulf Countries, and Turkey) in order to weaken the Assad
government
Safe havens are suggested in areas conquered by Islamic insurgents

along the lines of the Libyan model (which translates to so-called no-fly
zones as a first act of humanitarian war'; see 7.B.)
Iraq is identified with Shia expansion (8.C)
A Sunni Islamic State could be devastating to unifying Iraq and could
lead to the renewing facilitation of terrorist elements from all over the
Arab world entering into Iraqi Arena. (see last non-redacted line in full
PDF view.)
The following is excerpted from the seven page DIA declassified
report (bold-facing is my own):
R 050839Z AUG 12
THE GENERAL SITUATION:

A. INTERNALLY, EVENTS ARE TAKING A CLEAR SECTARIAN DIRECTION.
B. THE SALAFIST [sic], THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD, AND AQI ARE THE
MAJOR FORCES DRIVING THE INSURGENCY IN SYRIA.
C. THE WEST, GULF COUNTRIES, AND TURKEY SUPPORT THE OPPOSITION;
WHILE RUSSIA, CHINA AND IRAN SUPPORT THE REGIME.
3. Al QAEDA IRAQ (AQI): B. AQI SUPPORTED THE SYRIAN

OPPOSITION FROM THE BEGINNING, BOTH IDEOLOGICALLY AND
THROUGH THE MEDIA
4.D. THERE WAS A REGRESSION OF AQI IN THE WESTERN PROVINCES OF

IRAQ DURING THE YEARS OF 2009 AND 2010; HOWEVER, AFTER THE
RISE OF THE INSURGENCY IN SYRIA, THE RELIGIOUS AND TRIBAL
POWERS IN THE REGIONS BEGAN TO SYMPATHIZE WITH THE
SECTARIAN UPRISING. THIS (SYMPATHY) APPEARED IN FRIDAY
PRAYER SERMONS, WHICH CALLED FOR VOLUNTEERS TO SUPPORT THE
SUNNIS [sic] IN SYRIA.
7. THE FUTURE ASSUMPTIONS OF THE CRISIS:

A. THE REGIME WILL SURVIVE AND HAVE CONTROL OVER SYRIAN
TERRITORY.
B. DEVELOPMENT OF THE CURRENT EVENTS INTO PROXY WAR:
OPPOSITION FORCES ARE TRYING TO CONTROL THE EASTERN AREAS
(HASAKA AND DER ZOR), ADJACENT TO THE WESTERN IRAQI PROVINCES
(MOSUL AND ANBAR), IN ADDITION TO NEIGHBORING TURKISH
BORDERS. WESTERN COUNTRIES, THE GULF STATES AND TURKEY ARE
SUPPORTING THESE EFFORTS. THIS HYPOTHESIS IS MOST LIKELY IN

ACCORDANCE WITH THE DATA FROM RECENT EVENTS, WHICH WILL
HELP PREPARE SAFE HAVENS UNDER INTERNATIONAL SHELTERING,
SIMILAR TO WHAT TRANSPIRED IN LIBYA WHEN BENGHAZI WAS
CHOSEN AS THE COMMAND CENTER OF THE TEMPORARY
GOVERNMENT.
8.C. IF THE SITUATION UNRAVELS THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY

OF ESTABLISHING A DECLARED OR UNDECLARED SALAFIST
PRINCIPALITY IN EASTERN SYRIA(HASAKA AND DER ZOR), AND THIS
IS EXACTLY WHAT THE SUPPORTING POWERS TO THE OPPOSITION
WANT, IN ORDER TO ISOLATE THE SYRIAN REGIME, WHICH IS
CONSIDERED THE STRATEGIC DEPTH OF THE SHIA EXPANSION (IRAQ
AND IRAN)
8.D.1. ISI COULD ALSO DECLARE AN ISLAMIC STATE THROUGH ITS
UNION WITH OTHER TERRORIST ORGANIZATIONS IN IRAQ AND
SYRIA, WHICH WILL CREATE GRAVE DANGER IN REGARDS TO UNIFYING
IRAQ AND THE PROTECTION OF ITS TERRITORY.
_____
This article was originally published at Levant Report and has been used here
with permission.
ISIS, Syria, US Foreign Policy
A Defense Intelligence Agency

document notes that the supporters of the Syrian opposition seek to establish
an Islamic state to isolate the Assad regime.
Astoundingly, the newly declassified report states that for THE WEST, GULF
COUNTRIES, AND TURKEY [WHO] SUPPORT THE [SYRIAN] OPPOSITION
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ESTABLISHING A DECLARED OR
UNDECLARED SALAFIST PRINCIPALITY IN EASTERN SYRIA (HASAKA AND
DER ZOR), AND THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT THE SUPPORTING POWERS TO
THE OPPOSITION WANT, IN ORDER TO ISOLATE THE SYRIAN REGIME.
The DIA report, formerly classified SECRET//NOFORN and dated August 12,
2012, was circulated widely among various government agencies, including
CENTCOM, the CIA, FBI, DHS, NGA, State Dept., and many others.
The document shows that as early as 2012, U.S. intelligence predicted the rise
of the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL or ISIS), but instead of
clearly delineating the group as an enemy, the report envisions the terror group
as a U.S. strategic asset.
While a number of analysts and journalists have documented long ago the role of
western intelligence agencies in the formation and training of the armed
opposition in Syria, this is the highest level internal U.S. intelligence
confirmation of the theory that western governments fundamentally see ISIS
as their own tool for regime change in Syria. The document matter-of-factly
states just that scenario.
Forensic evidence, video evidence, as well as recent admissions of high-level
officials involved (see former Ambassador to Syria Robert Fords
admissions here and here), have since proven the State Department and CIAs
material support of ISIS terrorists on the Syrian battlefield going back to at
least 2012 and 2013 (for a clear example of forensic evidence: see UKbased Conflict Armament Researchs report which traced the origins of Croatian
anti-tank rockets recovered from ISIS fighters back to a Saudi/CIA joint
program via identifiable serial numbers).
The newly released DIA report makes the following summary points concerning
ISI (in 2012 Islamic State in Iraq,) and the soon to emerge ISIS:
Al-Qaeda drives the opposition in Syria
The West identifies with the opposition
The establishment of a nascent Islamic State became a reality only with
the rise of the Syrian insurgency (there is no mention of U.S. troop
withdrawal from Iraq as a catalyst for Islamic States rise, which is the
contention of innumerable politicians and pundits; see section 4.D. below)
The establishment of a Salafist Principality in Eastern Syria is exactly
what the external powers supporting the opposition want (identified as
the West, Gulf Countries, and Turkey) in order to weaken the Assad
government
Safe havens are suggested in areas conquered by Islamic insurgents
along the lines of the Libyan model (which translates to so-called no-fly
zones as a first act of humanitarian war'; see 7.B.)
Iraq is identified with Shia expansion (8.C)
A Sunni Islamic State could be devastating to unifying Iraq and could
lead to the renewing facilitation of terrorist elements from all over the
Arab world entering into Iraqi Arena. (see last non-redacted line in full
PDF view.)
The following is excerpted from the seven page DIA declassified
report (bold-facing is my own):
R 050839Z AUG 12
THE GENERAL SITUATION:

A. INTERNALLY, EVENTS ARE TAKING A CLEAR SECTARIAN DIRECTION.
B. THE SALAFIST [sic], THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD, AND AQI ARE THE
MAJOR FORCES DRIVING THE INSURGENCY IN SYRIA.
C. THE WEST, GULF COUNTRIES, AND TURKEY SUPPORT THE OPPOSITION;
WHILE RUSSIA, CHINA AND IRAN SUPPORT THE REGIME.
3. Al QAEDA IRAQ (AQI): B. AQI SUPPORTED THE SYRIAN

OPPOSITION FROM THE BEGINNING, BOTH IDEOLOGICALLY AND
THROUGH THE MEDIA
4.D. THERE WAS A REGRESSION OF AQI IN THE WESTERN PROVINCES OF

IRAQ DURING THE YEARS OF 2009 AND 2010; HOWEVER, AFTER THE
RISE OF THE INSURGENCY IN SYRIA, THE RELIGIOUS AND TRIBAL
POWERS IN THE REGIONS BEGAN TO SYMPATHIZE WITH THE
SECTARIAN UPRISING. THIS (SYMPATHY) APPEARED IN FRIDAY
PRAYER SERMONS, WHICH CALLED FOR VOLUNTEERS TO SUPPORT THE
SUNNIS [sic] IN SYRIA.
7. THE FUTURE ASSUMPTIONS OF THE CRISIS:

A. THE REGIME WILL SURVIVE AND HAVE CONTROL OVER SYRIAN
TERRITORY.
B. DEVELOPMENT OF THE CURRENT EVENTS INTO PROXY WAR:
OPPOSITION FORCES ARE TRYING TO CONTROL THE EASTERN AREAS
(HASAKA AND DER ZOR), ADJACENT TO THE WESTERN IRAQI PROVINCES
(MOSUL AND ANBAR), IN ADDITION TO NEIGHBORING TURKISH
BORDERS. WESTERN COUNTRIES, THE GULF STATES AND TURKEY ARE
SUPPORTING THESE EFFORTS. THIS HYPOTHESIS IS MOST LIKELY IN
ACCORDANCE WITH THE DATA FROM RECENT EVENTS, WHICH WILL
HELP PREPARE SAFE HAVENS UNDER INTERNATIONAL SHELTERING,
SIMILAR TO WHAT TRANSPIRED IN LIBYA WHEN BENGHAZI WAS
CHOSEN AS THE COMMAND CENTER OF THE TEMPORARY
GOVERNMENT.

8.C. IF THE SITUATION UNRAVELS THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY
OF ESTABLISHING A DECLARED OR UNDECLARED SALAFIST
PRINCIPALITY IN EASTERN SYRIA(HASAKA AND DER ZOR), AND THIS
IS EXACTLY WHAT THE SUPPORTING POWERS TO THE OPPOSITION
WANT, IN ORDER TO ISOLATE THE SYRIAN REGIME, WHICH IS
CONSIDERED THE STRATEGIC DEPTH OF THE SHIA EXPANSION (IRAQ
AND IRAN)
8.D.1. ISI COULD ALSO DECLARE AN ISLAMIC STATE THROUGH ITS
UNION WITH OTHER TERRORIST ORGANIZATIONS IN IRAQ AND
SYRIA, WHICH WILL CREATE GRAVE DANGER IN REGARDS TO UNIFYING
IRAQ AND THE PROTECTION OF ITS TERRITORY.
_____
This article was originally published at Levant Report and has been used here
with permission.
ISIS, Syria, US Foreign Policy

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ANALYSIS SYRIA

A Defense Intelligence Agency

THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ESTABLISHING A DECLARED OR

Safe havens are suggested in areas conquered by Islamic insurgents

THE GENERAL SITUATION:

3. Al QAEDA IRAQ (AQI): B. AQI SUPPORTED THE SYRIAN

4.D. THERE WAS A REGRESSION OF AQI IN THE WESTERN PROVINCES OF

7. THE FUTURE ASSUMPTIONS OF THE CRISIS:

SUPPORTING THESE EFFORTS. THIS HYPOTHESIS IS MOST LIKELY IN

8.C. IF THE SITUATION UNRAVELS THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY

A Defense Intelligence Agency

THE GENERAL SITUATION:

3. Al QAEDA IRAQ (AQI): B. AQI SUPPORTED THE SYRIAN

4.D. THERE WAS A REGRESSION OF AQI IN THE WESTERN PROVINCES OF

7. THE FUTURE ASSUMPTIONS OF THE CRISIS:

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