An Improved Fuzzy Neural Networks Approach For Short-Term Electrical Load Forecasting
An Improved Fuzzy Neural Networks Approach For Short-Term Electrical Load Forecasting
An Improved Fuzzy Neural Networks Approach For Short-Term Electrical Load Forecasting
I. INTRODUCTION
We use a fuzzy logic system merging with neural networks to proceed with the calculation of ANNs parameters,
including weights, biases, etc., the basic steps of which are
shown in Fig. 1. Such method can be expressed as
Fuzzy rule R j :
IF ( x1 is A1j ) and ( x 2 is A 2j ) and and ( x is A pj )
p
THEN y is B j
(1)
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Fuzzy Rule R
2.3
w1
x1
xp
Fuzzy Rule R
wj
d
(6)
y k (x t) = f (C id (x t) ) t =1, 2, , n d
Where
y k (x t) = w jk m j (x t) T jk
(x t) =
Ci
(7)
C1 (x t), C 2 (x t), , C p (x t)
(8)
Ci
(2)
d
y k (x t) is the expected output value mapped from the
(3)
(M ijmij)
Ci
(4)
(x t) input.
(9)
O v
1 e MAPE
i 1
(5)
i 1
x t = ( x 1 t , x 2 t , x pt )
are the training data of the
input networks.
p is the input variables number of dimensions.
x it ( i 12 p ) is its input variable, M ij and m ij
)
j 1
net j =
in which
y k ( x t ) y k ( x t )
d
T
MAPE
n out
n out
k 1
n d
nd
(10)
y k ( x t )
d
t 1
weight from the j-th hidden layer node to the k -th output
node. k = 1, 2, , n out T jk is the bias from the j-th
is the
In p u t
x1t
x pt
x2t
H id d e n
la y e r
m
( x )
y1 t y 2 t
ij
( x )
o u tp u t
( x )
yk t
- 597 -
^ q , q , ..., q ..., q ` ,
Fig. 3
.
.
.
t
D
D
D
m
1
2
!
(13)
q j =
t
t
t
.
.
.
E m
E 1 E 2
!
)k!=1, 2, , n*)m is the length of the quantum chromosome* During the initialization of
D
E
In the equation,
.....
.....
D i
D
E
2
m
m
E i
(i=1, 2, , m) in
Q l (t )
the
tth
generation,
t
t
t
t
t
t
t
S (t ) P1, P 2, ..., P h..., P l , Pl (t ) = x1 , x2 ,..., x j..., xtn , every
t
( j =1, 2, , n) is a series, ( x , x , ..., x ..., x ), of
in
(12)
= 1 (i = 1, 2, ,
0, otherwise.
Step 3: Perform individual measurement to each object in
S (t ) .
H (t ) , if
(11)
In the equation, D E are two complex numbers representing the probability of occurrence for the corresponding
state: ( D 2 E 2 = 1 ) D 2 , E 2 represent the prob-
D
E
where
1).!Quantum bit
Use a fitness evaluation function to evaluate each individual object in S (t ) and keep the best object in the generation. If a satisfactory solution is obtained, stop the algorithm; otherwise, continue to the 4th step.
Step 4: Use a proper quantum rotation gate U ( t ) to update
S (t )
The traditional genetic algorithm uses mating, and mutation etc. operations to maintain the diversity of the population. Quantum genetic algorithm applies logic gate to the
probability amplitude of quantum state to maintain the diversity of the population. Therefore, here, a quantum rotation gate of quantum logic gate is adopted for the new
quantum genetic algorithm.
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cos T
sin T
- sin T
cos T
(14)
k f (D
i ,E i
) !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
(15)
iter m ax
evolution generation, S is an angle, iter m a x is a constant depending on the complexity of the optimization
problem. The purpose of the function f ( D i , E ) is to
i
found, d
E
u E
,
1
ta n
1
) ,
and
u E
ta n
1
. When d
and
are all larger than 0 at the same time, It means that the
shows that the current solution should be rotated counterclockwise, which has a value of +1; otherwise, its value
should be -1.
Table 1. Look up table for
!!!! d
boe!d
d 1 ! 0 !!! d
! 0 ![
f (D i, E i )
!
!
2
function
f (D i , E i ) !
1
!!!!True
!!!True!
+1!
- 1!
!!!!True
False!
+1!
+1!
!!!!False
True!
- 1!
- 1!
!!!!False!
False!
- 1!
+1!
yk (x t ) = w jk m j (x t ) + T jk
where
the parameters are defined in (2) to (5),
J =16, 22, 28, 34, 40, or 46,
k =1, 2, , 24.
S (t 1) U (t ) u S (t ) !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!(16)
In the above equation: t is the evolution generation,
U ( t ) is the tth generation quantum rotation gate, S (t ) is
the tth generation probability amplitude of a certain object,
S ( t 1 ) is the t+1th generation probability amplitude of
the corresponding object.
(14)
j 1
MAPE
24 k 1 n d t 1
24
nd
(15)
y k ( xt )
d
Step 5: Perturbation
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loads(M W )
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
1
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
hours
Fig. 5 The forecast results for a regular work day (September 17,
2008, Wed.)
Output
predicted
actual
predicted
actual
25000
24
Past 24
hr loads
25
48
Past 48 hr
loads
49
28
52 53
76 77
81
82
Hidden
Layer
loads(MW)
20000
15000
10000
83 Input
Temp.max,
Present
24
hr
Rainfall
Holiday
Temp.min
Temp. Forecast Index
Index
(d-1)
11
13 15
17 19
hours
Fig. 6 The forecast results for a national holiday in Taiwan (October 10,
2008, Fri.)
Table 2 The MAPE and Max. MAPE obtained by different NN methods for various day nature.
ANN
Day
Best
Nature
Work day
Non-work-day
Natl holiday
Rainy day
Avg.
Max.
EP-ANN
Best
Max.
GA-ANN
Best
Max.
QGA-ANN
Best
2.29
2.23
2.17
2.39
2.27
1.67
1.74
1.79
1.93
1.79
2.05
2.17
2.09
2.25
2.14
21 23
1.58
1.55
1.72
1.73
1.65
- 600 -
1.94
2.05
2.17
2.13
2.08
1.27
1.45
1.37
1.38
1.37
QGA-FNN
Max.
Best
Max.
MAPE
MAPE
MAPE
1.98
2.17
2.08
2.02
2.06
1.27
1.29
1.25
1.37
1.29
1.97
1.85
1.93
1.99
1.94
Table 3 The STLFs MAPE values by the proposed QGA-FNN method for typical weeks and atypical weeks for the
four seasons in a full year (Fall- Sept. till Nov. 2008; winter- Dec. 2008 till Feb. 2009; spring- Mar. till May 2009;
summer- June till Aug. 2009)
Date
Spring
Typical Atypical
Week
Week
Mon.
Tue.
Wed.
Thur.
Fri.
Sat.
Sun.
1.325
1.278
1.368
1.338
1.239
1.337
1.346
1.337
1.355
1.392
1.362
1.333
1.359
1.358
Summer
Typical
Atypical
Week
Week
1.341
1.276
1.336
1.321
1.256
1.321
1.339
1.352
1.345
1.342
1.325
1.336
1.352
1.353
VI. CONCLUSION
An accurate load forecasting can lead to accurate power
generation amount, save energy and simplify energy management work, making the entire power system operation
more efficient. For a better STLF, the particle swarm optimization method is first introduced in this paper; this method
encodes all the networks weights and biases into several
FNN system particle swarms. Then, we train the network
parameter values using the QGA method proposed in this
paper to locate the networks optimal parameter solution and
finally, resolve the optimal STLF with such networks derived.
The strength of the proposed QGA method lies at its simplicity and briefness, resulting in easy feasibility without the
need of many parameter adjustments, and gradient infortion
is not required.
This study resolves 24-hour solutions, as an example,
using the current load of Taipower in Taiwan for optimal
load forecasting and compares our forecast results with that
of other often-used methods. The comparisons indicate that
the proposed method significantly improves the error rates
over other often-used methods, ranging from 6.2% to
43.4%-- a sign demonstrating the proposed methods advantage in load forecasting.
VII. REFERENCES
[1] T. Haida and S. Muto, Regression bsed peak load forecasting using a
transformation technique, IEEE Trans. On Power System, Vol. 9,
pp.1788-1794, Nov. 1994.
[2] Charytoniuk W, Chen M. S, Van Olinda P. Nonpparametric regression
based Short-Term Load Forecasting, IEEE Trans. On Power System,
Vol. 13, pp-725-730, Mar. 1998.
[3] Akagi H. New trends in active filter for power conditioning, IEEE
Trans. On Power Electronics. Vol. 32, pp.1312-1322, Jun. 1996.
[4] Mastorocostas P. A, Theochairs J. B, Bakirtzis A.G, Fuzzy modeling
for short-term load forecasting using the orthogonal least squares
method, IEEE Trans. On Power System, Vol. 14, pp.29-36, Jan. 1999.
[5] A. Khotanzed, R. C. Hwang, A. Abaye and D. Maratulam, An Adaptive Moddular Artificial Neural Network Hourly Load Forecaster and
its Implementation at Electric Utilities , IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, Vol. 10, No. 3, pp1716-1722, August, 1995.
[6] H. Yoo, R. L. Pimmel, Short-term Load Forecasting Using a
Self-Super Vised Adaptive Neural Network , IEEE Trans. on Power
Systems, Vol. 14, No. 2, pp.779-784, May 1999.
[7] J.C. Sousa, L. P. Neves and H. M Jorge, Load Forecasting Based on
Neural Networks and Load Profiling , IEEE PowerTech, pp.1-8, June
28 2009-July 2 2009.
[8] V. H. Ferreira and S. A. P. Alves da Silva, Toward Estimating
Autonomous Neural Network-Based Electric Load Forecasters , IEEE
Fall
Typical
Atypical
Week
Week
1.331
1.237
1.287
1.313
1.312
1.341
1.338
1.352
1.289
1.345
1.331
1.323
1.357
1.338
Winter
Typical
Atypical
Week
Week
1.272
1.285
1.273
1.332
1.266
1.322
1.325
1.321
1.327
1.305
1.343
1.311
1.355
1.345
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VIII. BIOGRAPHIES
Gwo-Ching Liao (M04) He received his
MS-EE from the National Cheng Kung
University, Tainan, Taiwan in 1991 and the
Ph.D degree from National Sun Yat-Sen
University, Kaohsiung. He works on
Department of Electrical Engineering, Fortune
Institute of Technology, Kaohsiung County,
Taiwan. His interests are deregulation, power
system operations and AI application in power
system.