Speed Studies Handout

Speed studies
includes data analysis,

spot speed, average speed, &
measuring sight distance
February 2009
Speed, Travel Time, and Delay

Studies
Spot Speed: speed of vehicles measured at
a particular point along the road
Average travel speed: speed including all
delays and travel time
Average Speed
Total time to traverse link = 140 sec
Distance = 2192 feet
Average speed = _2192 feet = 15.6 ft/sec (23.0 mph)
140 sec
30.0
25.0
Speed (ft/sec
c)
20.0
15.0
10 0
10.0
5.0
2192 feet
0.0
0
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 135 140
Seconds
Travel Time and Delay

Studies to estimate the average running
times (and delays) of vehicle through a
road section
Determine operating efficiency of a route

Identify problem delay locations
Evaluate user benefits of road improvements
Collect link-node times for network planning
models
Travel-Time Study Uses and

C ll ti
Collection
Uses:
identify problem locations
Specifically looks at delay
Measure arterial LOS
Input to traffic assignment models
Economic analysis of reduced travel time
Measure of congestion
Before and after studies to assess
improvements
Input to air quality models
Study Procedure
Test Vehicle:
Floating Car
Average Car
Moving Car
No Test Vehicles:
License plate studies
Interviews
Floating Car: measure the time to

traverse a test section while overtaking
and being overtaken by an equal number
of vehicles
Pass as many cars as pass the test car
record travel time and distance to calculate average
speed
can also
l record
d stopped
t
dd
delay
l separately
t l
Average Car: measure the time to

traverse a test section traveling at the
average speed of the traffic stream (highly
subjective)
Driver mimic average

g road conditions
Easier than floating car but driver interprets average conditions
record travel time and distance to calculate average speed
can also record stopped
pp delay
y separately
p
y
License
ce se Plate
ate Method:
et od it p
provides
o des
information about travel time and delay. It
provide information about circulation
also p
patterns. It relies on vehicle matching
y
from observations at two synchronized
locations. Often done using video
cameras.
Spot Speed Studies
Speed Limit Effectiveness Studies

Establish Trends
Design Impacts (SSD)
Traffic Control Placement and timing
Collision Study with Speed Cause
Investigate speed complaints
10
Collection of spot speeds
Collect during
g time period representative of desired
outcome
Usually cannot collect all vehicles
Random sample
11
Location & Time

Depends on purpose
Time:
Depends
D
d on purpose
Free-flow: off-peak
Time period corresponding to complaint
12
Study Layout
Vertical
Reference Point
End Timing
Vertical
Reference Point
Study Length
Approaching Vehicle
Observer
X
Start Timing
13
Recommended Study Lengths

Traffic Stream Average
Speed
Recommended Study
Length (feet)
Below 25 mph
88
25-40 mph
176
Above 40 mph
264
14
Vehicle Speed Calculation
V= spot speed (mph)

V
D= length (ft)
D
V
1.47t
t = elapsed time (sec.)

1.47=
1
47= constant that converts feet per second to
miles per hour
15
Data Analysis
Transportation studies often require analysis of
data
Large
g datasets
Only collecting a sample of a larger population
Use of statistics to ensure:
Results are accurate and meaningful

Correct sample
p size
Accurate use of statistical tests
Confidence in interpretation of results
16
Random Variables
Sampling population
Too large to measure all
S
Sample
l smaller
ll number
b tto representt
Population should be sampled randomly to
prevent bias
Biased sampling: sampling all red sports cars
in a spot speed study
Random sampling: sampling every 5th vehicle
17
Other Statistics
Generally assume spot speeds are
normally distributed
Assume sufficient samples are collected
Should be able to calculate mean,
standard
t d dd
deviation,
i ti
etc.
t b
based
d on
assumption of normality
18
Population Vs
Vs. Sample
63 mph
62 mph
51 mph
57 mph
59 mph
50 mph
55 mph
43 mph
43 mph
63 mph
22 mph
47 mph
h
53 mph
51mph
55 mph
62 mph
55 mph
42 mph
42 mph
47 mph
56 mph
36 mph
49 mph
51 mph
39 mph
53 mph
41 mph
65 mph
61 mph
Population
70 mph
Sample
19
Collection of spot
p speeds
p
Systematic Errors and Solutions
Error looking
g for fastest vehicle
Solution Sample every nth vehicle
Error too many heavy vehicle measurements
Solution same as above sample every nth
vehicle
Error
E
Inclusion
I l i off vehicle
hi l ffollowing
ll i platoon
l t
leader
Solution Don
Dontt include vehicles following too
closely (200 if < 40 mph, and 350 otherwise)
20
Frequency Distribution Table for Actual

Data Versus Expected Normal Distribution
35%
Normal
30%
Data
Fre
equency
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
27 5
27.5
32 5
32.5
37 5
37.5
42 5
42.5
47 5
47.5
52 5
52.5
57 5
57.5
62 5
62.5
67 5
67.5
Speed (mph)
21
Normal Distribution
Bell shaped
Symmetric about (mean)
X ~ N(
N(,
2)
Completely described by mean and variance
Image source:
http://library.thinkquest.org/
10030/7ndndpnd.htm
22
Dispersion
Same mean
Speeds 15 mph and 75 mph
(15 + 75)/2 = 45 mph
Speeds 44 and 46 mph

((44 + 46)/2
) = 45 mph
p
But very different ranges of values

Variance and standard deviation
Magnitude of variation around mean
23
STD
Standard deviation is square root of variance
Equation from Roess et al
24
Standard deviation
s2 = 599.7 = 85.7
(7-1)
s = 85.70.5 = 9.25 mph
Mean is 24.6 mph with std of 9.25 mph
25
Confidence Intervals (normal dist)
How confident are we in our estimate of a statistic? (i.e. mean)

Resampling a population would give us a slightly different mean
Standard error of the mean (E)
= X E,
E with 68.3%
68 3% confidence
= X 1.96E, with 95% confidence
= X 3.0E, with 99.7% confidence
Equation from Roess et al
26
Confidence Intervals (normal dist)
Example: Mean = 45.5 mph, standard

deviation = 4.5, what is the 95%
confidence interval, N = 67
E = __ =___4.5___ = 0.55
05
05
N0.5
(67)0.5
27
Sample Size
Selection of sample size depends on
desired confidence level
N = minimum sample size at selected
confidence level
Z = number of standard deviation for
confidence level (1.64 for 90%, see table
4.1 page 88 of text)
= standard deviation (mph)

d = limit of acceptable error in average
speed estimate
28
Example: Sample Size

An engineer wishes to determine whether vehicles are
traveling at the posted speed limit for a school zone
Desired standard deviation is 7 mph
Limit of acceptable error = 1.5 mph
Desired confidence level is 90%
How many samples need to be collected?
N = (Z)
(Z )2 = (1.64*7)
(1 64*7)2 = 58.57
58 57 vehicles
hi l = 58 vehicles
hi l
( d )2
( 1.5 )
29
Example: Sample Size

What if a confidence level of 99% is desired?
N = (Z)2 = (2.58*7)2 = 144.96 = 145 vehicles
( d )2
( 1.5 )
30
Spot Speed Study Metrics

Mean: average
Mode: value that appears the most
Pace:
P
10 mile
il iincrementt iin which
hi h th
the
highest percentage of drivers is observed
45 to 55 mph
85th Percentile speed

15th percentile speed
31
Mean (Average Speed)

Larger sample size = greater probability
that calculated mean is not significantly
different from true mean
32
Mean
Speeds = 22, 15, 11, 25, 31, 41, 27 (mph)
Mean = 22 + 15 + 11 + 25 + 31 + 41 + 27
7
= 24.6 mph
33
Other Metrics
Range: highest and lowest value
observed
Minimum: 5 mph
Maximum: 65 mph
34
Spot
p Speed
p
Study
y of 100 Vehicles
Raw Data for 16 vehicles
Data for 185 Vehicles by 5

mph range
35
Modal: Value that occurs the most

frequently in a sample of spot speeds
Mode is 53 mph
36
Pace: range in which most vehicles

are found (i.e. 10 mph hour range)
47
92
104
37
Distribution
10 vehicles from data collection

were traveling from 25 to < 30 mph
38
Fraction
F
ti in
i 25 to
t < 30 bin
bi = # off vehicles
hi l in
i
bin/total # of vehicles (80) = __10__ = 0.13 (13%)
80
39
This should = 1.0 (100%)

40
0.30
0.25
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
22.5
27.5
32.5
37.5
42.5
47.5
52.5
Shows fraction of vehicles in each speed

p
bin
frequency distribution
About 12% in speed bin 27.5
41
Groupp 15 to < 35 has 0 +0.06 + 0.13 + 0.19 = 0.38 or

38% of vehicles are found in those 4 bins or 38% of
vehicles were traveling between 15 and < 35 mph
42
ith percentile spot speed

Spot speed below which i% of vehicles are
traveling
50th percentile: 50% of vehicles are
traveling at or below that speed (this is
p
)
also the median speed)
85th Percentile: 85% of vehicles traveling
p
15% traveling
g over
at or below that speed;
that speed
43
Cumulative Frequency Distribution

frequency
0.9
0.8
100% of vehicles
are below 55 mph
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
01
0.1
0
15 to < 20
20 to < 25
25 to < 30
30 to < 35
35 to < 40
40 to < 45
45 to < 50
50 to < 55
44
frequency
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
01
0.1
0
15 to < 20
20 to < 25
25 to < 30
30 to < 35
35 to < 40
What is the 85th ppercentile speed?

p
40 to < 45
45 to < 50
Would have been easier if we had used smaller

speed bins
50 to < 55
45

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Speed studies

includes data analysis,

Speed, Travel Time, and Delay

10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 135 140

Travel Time and Delay

Determine operating efficiency of a route

Travel-Time Study Uses and

Floating Car: measure the time to

Average Car: measure the time to

Driver mimic average

Spot Speed Studies

Speed Limit Effectiveness Studies

Collection of spot speeds

Location & Time

Recommended Study Lengths

Vehicle Speed Calculation

V= spot speed (mph)

t = elapsed time (sec.)

Results are accurate and meaningful

Frequency Distribution Table for Actual

Speeds 44 and 46 mph

But very different ranges of values

Standard deviation is square root of variance

Equation from Roess et al

Confidence Intervals (normal dist)

How confident are we in our estimate of a statistic? (i.e. mean)

Equation from Roess et al

Confidence Intervals (normal dist)

Example: Mean = 45.5 mph, standard

= standard deviation (mph)

Example: Sample Size

Example: Sample Size

Spot Speed Study Metrics

85th Percentile speed

Mean (Average Speed)

Raw Data for 16 vehicles

Data for 185 Vehicles by 5

Modal: Value that occurs the most

Pace: range in which most vehicles

10 vehicles from data collection

This should = 1.0 (100%)

Shows fraction of vehicles in each speed

Groupp 15 to < 35 has 0 +0.06 + 0.13 + 0.19 = 0.38 or

ith percentile spot speed

Cumulative Frequency Distribution

What is the 85th ppercentile speed?

Would have been easier if we had used smaller

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