NP Opinion5
NP Opinion5
NP Opinion5
Interdisciplinary Analysts
Questions
Objectives
Field duration
Achham
Sarlahi
10
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gjnk/f;L
11
December 23, 2007 (i) Top leaders of the seven-party alliance and Maoists reached a 23point agreement to end political deadlock and hold the constituent assembly elections by
mid-April 2008.
December 27, 2007 United Nations Mission in Nepal (UNMIN) said that the joint
monitoring team disqualified 12,648 Maoist combatants from being the members of the
Maoists Peoples Liberation Army members during the process of verification.
December 28, 2007 (i) The interim parliament approved a bill for the third amendment to
the interim constitution. After this amendment Nepal turned into a federal democratic
republic, to be implemented by the first meeting of the constituent assembly. The
amendment also cleared the way of holding CA elections in mid-April. (ii) Leader Mahantha
Thakur announced the launch of a new political party called Tarai-Madhes Democratic Party
(TMDP) for safeguarding identity, rights and dignity of the Madhesi people. Thakur resigned
as a senior cabinet minister and a NC lawmaker to launch the regional party.
January 4, 2008 (i) A meeting of the seven-party alliance decided to hold joint mass
meetings in different cities across the country to create a conducive environment for the
constituent assembly elections. (ii) Tarai-Madhes Democratic Party (TMDP) handed over an
11-point memorandum to Prime Minister Koirala and gave him an ultimatum to fulfill it by
January 18.
January 10, 2008 Prime Minister Koirala expanded cabinet by nominating three new
ministers and five state ministers.
On January 11 (i) Government decided to hold the constituent assembly elections on April
10, 2008. (ii) The Cabinet also decided to send the disqualified Maoists PLA combatants to
home by mid-February.
12
Survey Methodology
Closed-questionnaire
Sample size = 3,010 respondents
Randomly selected 30 districts
Selected sample represents 5 development regions and 3 geographic regions
Probability proportionate to size
Margin of error: + / - 1.8 (at the national level)
13
FW Mount
MW Mount
FW Hill
West Mount
MW Hill
FW Tarai
West Hill
MW Tarai
West Tarai
Central Mount
East Mount
Central Hill
East Hill
Central Tarai
East Tarai
14
15
16
Demographic characteristics
Sex
Population
Sample
(%)
(%)
Age Group
Population
Sample
(%)
(%)
Female
50.1
49.8
20-29
33.9
28.5
Male
49.9
50.2
30-39
24.7
26.8
Total
100.0
100.0
40-49
17.4
19.7
50-59
11.9
13.9
60-69
7.5
8.0
70+
4.6
3.3
100.0
100.0
Residence
Population
Sample
(%)
(%)
Rural
86.1
85.1
Urban
13.9
14.9
Total
100.0
100.0
Total
17
Demographic characteristics
Development Region
Population
Sample
(%)
(%)
Eastern
23.1
21.4
Central
34.7
40.6
Western
19.7
15.8
Mid-Western
13.0
12.7
Far-Western
9.5
9.5
100.0
100.0
Total
Ecological Region
Mountain
Population
Sample
(%)
(%)
7.3
5.5
Hill
44.3
47.7
Tarai
48.4
46.7
Total
100.0
100.0
18
Demographic characteristics
Religion
Population
Sample
(%)
(%)
Hindu
80.7
86.8
Buddhist
10.7
6.4
Islam
4.2
2.7
Kirat
3.6
3.0
Christianity
0.5
1.1
Atheist
0.0
0.1
Others
0.3
0.0
100.0
100.0
Total
19
Demographic characteristics
Educational Status
Sample
(%)
Illiterate
38.1
14.4
Primary
13.6
Lower sec.
9.4
Secondary
6.1
SLC completed
10.9
Inter.
5.5
2.0
Total
100.0
20
Demographic characteristics
Caste/Ethnicity
Population
(%)
Sample
(%)
Weight
Chhetri
15.80
16.45
0.9608
Bahun
12.74
15.12
0.8428
Magar
7.14
8.41
0.8495
Newar
5.48
7.24
0.7566
Yadav
3.94
5.68
0.6935
Tamang
5.64
4.75
1.1872
Tharu
6.75
4.15
1.6254
Kami/Biswokarma
3.94
3.09
1.2752
Gurung
2.39
2.82
0.8463
Muslim
4.27
2.62
1.6269
Rai
2.79
2.49
1.1197
Thakuri
1.47
2.43
0.6061
Limbu
1.58
1.76
0.8973
Damai/Pariyar
1.72
1.76
0.9768
21
Demographic characteristics
Caste/Ethnicity
Population
(%)
Sample
(%)
Weight
Teli
1.34
1.66
0.8067
Dhanuk
0.83
1.23
0.6752
Musahar
0.76
0.96
0.7888
Tarai Brahman
0.59
0.93
0.6343
Sudhi
0.40
0.93
0.4300
Mallah
0.51
0.90
0.5686
Kurmi
0.94
0.83
1.1318
Hajam
0.43
0.80
0.5393
Lohar
0.36
0.76
0.4711
Bhujel
0.52
0.70
0.7453
Koiri
1.11
0.70
1.5910
Kalwar
0.51
0.70
0.7310
Sarki/Mijar
1.40
0.63
2.2179
Majhi
0.32
0.56
0.5666
Chamar/Harijan
1.19
0.56
2.1070
22
Demographic characteristics
Caste/Ethnicity
Population
(%)
Sample
(%)
Weight
Nuniya
0.29
0.56
0.5135
Kanu
0.42
0.53
0.7901
Baniya
0.55
0.53
1.0347
Danuwar
0.23
0.50
0.4615
Dusadh
0.70
0.50
1.4047
Sonar
0.64
0.47
1.3760
Tatma
0.34
0.40
0.8528
Barahi
0.16
0.37
0.4378
Kewat
0.60
0.37
1.6418
Khatwe
0.33
0.37
0.9030
Rajbansi
0.42
0.27
1.5803
Kumal
0.44
0.23
1.8920
Chepang
0.23
0.23
0.9890
Sanyasi
0.88
0.23
3.7840
Thakali
0.06
0.20
0.3010
23
Demographic characteristics
Caste/Ethnicity
Population
(%)
Sample
(%)
Weight
Kumhar
0.24
0.20
1.2040
Kayastha
0.20
0.17
1.2040
Sherpa
0.76
0.13
5.7190
Sunuwar
0.42
0.13
3.1605
Badi
0.02
0.13
0.1505
Tajpuriya
0.06
0.13
0.4515
Satar
0.19
0.10
1.9063
Haluwai
0.22
0.10
2.2073
Kahar
0.15
0.10
1.5050
Darai
0.07
0.07
1.0535
Bantar
0.16
0.07
2.4080
Dhobi
0.32
0.07
4.8160
Dhimal
0.09
0.03
2.7090
Marwadi
0.19
0.03
5.7190
Meche
0.02
0.03
0.6020
24
Demographic characteristics
Caste/Ethnicity
Population
(%)
Sample
(%)
Weight
Rajput
0.21
0.03
6.3210
Rajbhar
0.11
0.03
3.3110
Bhediya
0.08
0.03
2.4080
Mali
0.05
0.03
1.5050
Sikh
0.01
0.03
0.3010
Others
3.28
0.96
3.4044
100.00
100.00
Total
25
31
30
22
17
20
15
7
10
9
5
0
Hill Caste
Hill
Ethnic
Hill Dalit
Newar
Muslim
65
60
50
Percent
Percent
25
35
40
30
20
10
0
Non-Madhesi
Madhesi
26
27
Right direction
Wrong direction
17%
80
63
Percent
60
40
31
28
20
21
20
15
12
10
0
Non-Madhesi
Madhesi
Right direction
Wrong direction
Some in right, some in wrong direction
Don't know/cannot say
28
If you think the country is moving in the right direction, then why?
(Q12, base = 764)
50
Percent
40
44
37
30
20
18
17
15
10
0
Improvement The 10-year Maoists have The country is
in law and armed conflict entered into
normal
order
has come to open politics
an end
Don't know/
cannot say
29
If you think the country is moving in the wrong direction, then why? (Q13,
base = 1202)
50
Percent
40
40
33
30
20
20
15
15
13
10
0
There is no There is lack
of unity
improvement
among the
in law and
main political
order
parties
Percent
60
40
20
Price hike
0
Non-Madhesi
Madhesi
30
In your view, what are the two major problems facing Nepal as a whole? (Q14,
base = 3010)
30
25
Percent
25
22
20
17
17
15
15
10
10
5
0
Poverty
Don't know/
cannot say
Price hike
Unemployment
Lack of
development
Bandh/strick/
chakka-jam
What are the two major problems at the local level? (Q15, base = 3010)
50
41
Percent
40
25
30
24
16
20
13
11
Lack of
irrigation
Unemployment
10
0
Lack of roads
Lack of
domestic
water
Lack of
electricity
Poverty
31
32
I am going to ask you about some of the organizations and associations of our country. What is the level of trust
towards these organizations and associations trust very much, trust somewhat, not much trust or no trust at all?
(Q16, base = 3010)
Q16
Legislative Parliament
Cabinet
Civil service
Nepal Police
Nepali Army
Judiciary
NGOs
Human rights activists
Media persons
Religious organizations
Ethnic organizations
Civil Society
Trust somewhat
No trust at all
Refuse
Dont know
3.4
22.0
15.5
22.2
0.1
36.8
3.2
21.5
16.4
28
0.1
30.8
8.0
28.5
19.1
15.5
0.0
28.9
11.8
36.9
19.7
19.2
0.0
12.4
14.5
38.1
17.2
16.6
0.0
13.6
13.1
34.3
16.0
13.2
0.1
23.4
10.1
32.9
17.5
9.7
0.1
29.7
13.5
34.0
12.7
8.2
0.1
31.5
20.1
37.4
12.5
6.1
0.0
23.8
20.8
33.2
13.2
9.4
0.0
23.4
17.8
34.0
13.2
11.4
0.0
23.5
16.4
32.6
12.0
6.0
0.1
32.8
33
38%
6%
29%
50
42
39
Perc ent
40
30
27
25
24
22
20
10
0
Non-Madhesi
Very good
Good
Bad
Madhesi
Very bad
34
39
Percent
40
31
30
14
20
10
10
0
Don't know/
cannot say
There is no
positive
feature
Prospects for
lasting peace
has
increased
It is
negotiating
with
agitationsmovements
The
government
has made
daily life
normal
Percent
30
21
20
12
10
The
government
has not
fulfilled basic
needs
It has not
fulfilled the
demands of
agitations movements
10
0
Don't know/
cannot say
It has not
controlled
price hike
It has not
held
Constituent
Assembly
election
35
Political intimidation
36
50%
Yes, they do
No, they do not
23%
Percent
48
28
26
14
The conflict
has declined
11
37
Why do you think people are hesitant to express their political views?
(Q22, base = 679)
Percent
40
33
29
30
22
15
20
15
12
10
0
Percent
50
40
30
20
10
0
Violent
behaviour
persists
among
Maoists
Political
parties have
been
inactive at
the local
level
18
7
22
11
Non-Madhesi
20
8
Madhesi
38
Constituent assembly
39
Percent
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
55
59
60
67
24
26
49
29
23
14
14
23
18
18
21
0
2004 Dec
2006 Jan
Heard about it
2006 Sep
Claim knowledge
2007 May
2008 Jan
Correctly understand
40
42%
Do you think that elections for cons tituent assembly will be held within
the next six months?
50
Percent
40
30
20
41
36
40
31
28
22
10
0
2007 May
Yes
2008 Jan
No
41
42
Yes
36%
No
59%
6%
Strongly agree
Somewhat agree
Somewhat disagree
Strongly disagree
40%
Don't know/cannot say
43
Percent
If you strongly agree or somewhat agree with the phrase 'New Nepal',
what do you expect from 'New Nepal'? (Q32c, base = 1365)
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
48
29
There will be
development
25
22
18
There will be
The
There will be
The law and
equal
unemployment
equal
order situation
opportunities problem will be development in
will be good
all regions
solved
for all
44
Mean
8.64
8.42
Public's rating towards the right to freedom to assemble peacefully and without arms
8.34
8.23
8.14
8.00
7.98
7.93
7.81
Public's rating towards the right to freedom to form unions and associations
7.59
45
State restructuring
46
There should be
50%
38%
Percent
81
74
53
39
43
19
14
5
2004 Dec
45
6
2006 Jan
2006 Sep
10
2007 Jan
46
43
2
2007 May
49
38
12
2008 Jan
47
It should be a secular
state
It should be a Hindu state
Don't know/cannot say
59%
59
59
59
Percent
50
40
30
33
31
31
20
10
9
9
10
0
2006 Sep
2007May
2008 Jan
It should be a secular state
48
7%
Nepali language should be the only
official language
42%
Other national languagess should
be adopted as official languages at
local level
51%
82
Percent
80
60
40
56
33
20
12
3
0
Non-Madhesi
Madhesi
49
55
Percent
50
40
48
38
43
50
41
30
20
10
0
2006 Sep
2007 May
2008 Jan
50
53%
41%
80
Percent
60
40
21
19
20
5
0
Non-Madhesi
Madhesi
51
Percent
50
40
54
52
39
41
30
20
10
0
2007 May
2008 Jan
52
Have heard
Have not heard
55%
Have you ever heard about various electoral systems like FirstPast-the-Post System and Proportional System?
40
P ercent
30
30
20
10
13
0
2006 Sep
2008 Jan
Have heard
53
Have heard
Have not heard
Don't know/cannot say
66%
Percent
23
20
10
16
10
0
2006 Sep
2007 May
2008 Jan
Have heard
54
Women's issues
55
Yes
No
Don't know/cannot say
87%
50
Percent
40
30
24
23
20
11
10
0
Lack of
access to
education
Lack of
freedom
Domestic
violence
Unemployment
Lack of
control over
one's body
56
f you think that women have to face specific kinds of problems, what are the two
biggest problems? (Q51, base = 2618)
60
Percent
50
49
43
40
30
37
37
26
20
23
22
23
11
10
10
0
Female
Male
Lack of freedom
Unemployment
Domestic violence
57
Agitation-movements
58
69%
Yes
No
84
Percent
80
61
60
40
35
14
20
0
Non-Madhesi
Yes
No
Madhesi
Don't know/cannot say
59
Percent
70
60
50
40
30
20
61
54
40
27
11
10
0
Non-Madhesi
Yes
No
Madhesi
Don't know/cannot say
60
25%
40%
Strongly agree
Somewhat agree
Somewhat disagree
11%
Strongly disagree
24%
If yes, do you agree or disagree with the demands of the Madhesi
movement? (Q54, Base = 677)
80
73
70
Percent
60
49
50
40
27
30
10
21
18
20
4
0
Non-Madhesi
Strongly agree
Somewhat agree
Strongly disagree
Madhesi
Somewhat disagree
61
11%
By the government fulfilling their
demands unconditionally
By the govt negotiating with
leaders of Madhesi
movemement
Don't know/cannot say
80%
76
Percent
80
60
40
20
16
0
Non-Madhesi
Madhesi
62
The Janjati movement has been going on for the past few
months. Have you ever heard of this? (Q56, Base = 3010)
5%
Yes
42%
53%
No
Don't know/cannot say
36%
Yes
No
Don't know/cannot
57%
63
0%
9%
33%
Strongly agree
Somewhat agree
Somewhat disagree
Strongly disagree
Don't know/cannot say
48%
In your opinion, how can the Janjati movement be
resolved? (Q59, Base = 1579)
1% 7%
10%
82%
64
65
45
39
Percent
40
43
38
30
27
20
24
35
22
15
10
0
2007 Jan
Don't know/cannot say
2007 May
Political Parties
2008 Jan
Refused to disclose
66
Conclusion