wrwm_0808.

qxd

20/8/08

16:34

Page 1

August 2008

What Really Wins Money

An Independent review of tipsters and betting systems
Hi, welcome back
With the start of the footy season upon us, I
thought it would be a good opportunity to draw up a
battle plan for the upcoming season (just like Fergie
does!). Ive covered backing, laying, and that old
chestnut laying the draw - surprisingly, the latter
might have legs after all. The Patriarch introduces us
to perms (Keegan, McDermott, Alan Sunderland
take a bow!).
Theres also a quick introduction to handicap
manipulation and a refresher on price gapping (Ive
been making it pay on my blog!)
The usual systems and tipsters update appears
(and yes I still need testers!)
Regards
Clive Keeling

BETTING SPECIAL!

How can you profit from

the new football season?

here are many strategies we can use to attack the

bookmakers this football season. So which area
suits your betting personality? The bookmakers and
betting exchanges offer such a huge variety of bets
in every area of football that it is worth looking at
these betting opportunities.
Of course the experts have released their own
systems/tipster services which, of course, all promise
to make us rich. Which of these strategies is worth
following and which ones are worth a red card?
I will be focussing on backing systems, laying
systems, trading methods and spreadsheets which
help with permutations.

Backing

IN THIS ISSUE:
The Compiler System...................................... 3
Spreadsheet calculator packages ..................... 4
Laying systems ................................................ 5
Trading on in running matches on Betfair ... 6
A little on Laying the Draw.......................... 7
Football tipsters ............................................... 8
Why value lies in managers ............................ 9
Betting Strategy Revealed: Handicap
manipulation cracking the code ................. 10
Betting Strategy: Are price gappers
winning gappers?........................................... 12
SYSTEMS AND TIPSTERS UPDATE:
Frankie Franks all weather investments........ 14
Systems and tipsters to monitor .................... 16
The Patriarch Presents: Revealed: a simple
way to profit from football perms ................ 17

With the myriad of markets offered by

bookmakers and betting exchanges, we can back
virtually any outcome in a football match. Be it
number of goals scored, traditional winner in match
odds market, goalscorer, correct score, corners,
wholl score next, etc etc.
We can also bet in running with traditional
bookmakers and with the betting exchanges. This
form of betting really comes into its own on
www.betfair.com and is something which deserves a
section of its own. So lets begin with some of the
most prominent backing systems which you will
most likely have heard of via mail shots or those
lovely (God Bless em!) affiliate emailers.

www.footballcashbuilder.com
At Last A Sure Fire Way to Secure Football
Betting Profits With Minimal Risk. Learn the
exact Secrets I use to win more than 100,000 Tax
Free Every Year betting on Fixed Odds Football.
At least thats what the website headline
exclaims... 100,000 tax-free EVERY YEAR betting
please turn over

wrwm_0808.qxd

20/8/08

16:34

Page 2

on fixed odds football!

and unduly complex in parts. That said, any perm

aficionado would find a lot of useful material within
the manual. Again (if my brain hasnt exploded after
the 2nd read) I will attempt some of the perms and
strategies and report back via the blog.

I am not too sure about these returns. The stakes

will have to be quite large and winnings regular to
ensure we get a 6 figure return.
So whats involved?

www.simplextrading.co.uk

The Football Cash Builder is a treble whose odds

are the equivalent of evens or thereabouts. The
author tells us that these bets win 7 out of every 9
times so profits are theoretically high.

Naturally there has been a big recent push for this

system prior to the beginning of the Premiership
Football season. Yes, the system may well have
profited in the last few years, and indeed I followed
it last season and it profited well. BUT is it as
simple as advertised and are there any hidden
surprises once implemented in the real world?

If one of the trebles loses, we look to retrieve our

lost stake with the next bet (in a cycle of 3 bets only).
I will be following this system via the blog for
the duration of the season and if the profits are as
advertised, after the end of this current season
WRWM will be written from my Caribbean condo!

How can you start with just 10p stakes and make
a 4-figure sum or even the 44K quoted in the 20012002 season?

After the first weekend of football, I lost my first

treble thanks to Brazils inability to win in 90
minutes in the Olympics, but Sundays evens treble
came in very nicely. Time will show if 6 figures are
achievable. I would suspect again that performance
will differ between people as there are many teams
we can select from in a given weekend my 3
fancies will differ from someone elses.

The answer is simple doubling up after a losing

bet. E.g. 10p stakes 1st bet loses. 20p stakes 2nd
bet loses. 40p 3rd bet loses. 80 p 4th bet loses.
1.60 5th bet wins. Revert back to 10p.
With these types of systems, I would recommend
you do a worse case scenario calculation before you
start. This is of course the very worst that can
happen if one team goes on an anomalous run which
was unexpected.

Bottom line: A very interesting system

reminiscent of the Compiler Systems Ultra Shortie
Backing System but involving trebles rather than
single bets. The contention that 100,000 can be
made is a little far fetched I would say and the stats
given to support this method (90% strike rate etc)
have an element of the urban myth about them.

A current Premiership season has 38 games; so

lets double up over 38 games should the highly
unlikely occur:
BET 1 10p BET 2 20p
BET 3 40p BET 4 80p

Follow progress on the blog and see if that

Caribbean condo will be within my reach.

BET 5 1.60 BET 6 3.20

www.fixedoddsfootball.co.uk

BET 8 25.60 BET 9 51.20

The BLUEPRINT 7 manual on sale here (47)

focusses on profiting from the fixed odds coupon
available at the bookmakers. The manual advises
that we start with at least 7 games of the current
football season played to ensure there is a
foundation of form available. The manual contains:

BET 10 102.40 BET 11 204.80

BET 7 6.40 BET 8 12.80

BET 12 409.60 BET 13 819.20

BET 14 1638.40 BET 15 3276.80
BET 16 6553.60 BET 17 13107.20
I have only got to Bet 17 and things are looking a
bit silly stakes wise!

Formulae for selecting the teams to bet. This is based

on games played and goals scored for and against.

If a team goes through the season without

having reached the outcome we require wed be
looking at a bet in the tens of millions of pounds by
Bet 38! YIKES!

The ability to maximise profits through

permutations (which The Patriarch will focus on)
I found the manual extremely exhausting to read

wrwm_0808.qxd

20/8/08

16:34

Page 3

Now you can see how the 44,000 profit in 2001

2002 came about it required large stakes which
perhaps were out of the grasp of the average punter.

1st 6 games of the season.

An interesting and simple method, it only
remains to be seen how profitable backing selected
ultra shorties can be in this new football system.

Last year the system worked like clockwork

despite stakes reaching 819.20 for Reading before
the result we required came about. Of course, in the
world of ifs, if Reading had continued their run
without producing the result we required, 4 more
bets would have required a 13K+ stake (and that
doesnt account for stakes already put down!)

Profit potential on 30 starting bets in 1,600 in

the first year with compounding taking over after that.
The no draw free bet
This bet can be done about twice a week. This is
a traditional lay the draw system with a few added
checks (unique to compiler systems) to ensure that
we select the correct teams to lay the draw with.

Bottom line: If you are aware of the risks

inherent with doubling up there is a chance this
system will profit again BUT we dont know how
the promoted teams in the Premiership will perform,
or, indeed, if the top 4 will put a run together which
will jeopardise The Simplex System. As I write
Stoke look to be in big trouble.

Profit potential is reliant on a number of factors.

Those of you familiar with the Football Cash
Generator and other lay the draw systems will
already know the problem areas with this particular
bet. (See dedicated article on laying the draw
featured a little later on).

The need, then, is for a betting bank robust

enough to place stakes after Bet 12 onwards and this
may require stakes far in excess of that available to
the average punter.

Professional football betting

This ebook takes The Compiler System checklist
into greater depth. It focuses on really nailing the
ultra short odds on teams to ensure strike rate is kept
as high as possible.

www.compilersystem.com
This is a site run by Daniel Soulsby who markets
himself as an ex bookie/odds compiler. The Compiler
Systems package is 5 ebooks and 2 bonuses all
dedicated to football. Heres a quick synopsis of
whats on offer from a couple of the ebooks (I cannot
of course express the profit potential but will use the
football blog at
soccerbettingmoneymaker.blogspot.com to keep track
of results as they happen in this new season)

Bonus even more money

This is an interesting sequence based system
where we look to bet on teams to score an even
amount of goals. The selection strategy is interesting
and logical and this is another I will monitor.
Bonus win win win
A derivative of The Compiler System but
focussing on better priced teams both home and
away. The selection strategy again is very logical
and thorough and this is another system I will follow
once around 6 matches have been played this season
to give me a form base around which to work.

The Compiler System

Certain teams hardly ever lose or draw is the
contention of the system author.
This system predicts which teams are on a
winning run and it also predicts when not to bet.

Bottom line: Certainly this package represents

value for money and there are at least 3 very
interesting football specific systems which I will
follow this season. Each system is well presented,
simple enough to follow and logical and there is a
degree of confidence on my part that they could
profit this system.

The Compiler System can, says the author, turn

30 into 50K in 2 years or 4 seasons.
Using The Racing and Football Outlook The
Compiler System looks to take advantage of ultra
short priced football teams and profit from
backing certain of them. Again, it is simple and
quick, so I will be following this system after we
have 6 results for each team in this new season. I
will be making my own bets before that period as
well (based on my own personal knowledge) so they
may not reflect True Compiler System Bets for the

At 39 this is, I would venture, one of the better

packages on the market. If you want to check out
performance before buying, then click on
soccerbettingmoneymaker.blogspot.com after about
6 weeks into the season for a continuous analysis of
please turn over

wrwm_0808.qxd

20/8/08

16:34

Page 4

this and other systems.

Spreadsheet
calculator packages

Merlin then showed me the treble bets I should

focus on (by indicating with an arrow).

www.footballsystem.co.uk 19.99

his product is simply a set of spreadsheets with

accompanying guides and does offer extremely
good value for money. This is a tool rather than
offering any practical advice regarding the selection
of teams to back or oppose. It follows therefore that
the performance of these spreadsheets are only as
good as the selections input into them.
The result? Bolton won, Fulham lost, and
Reading won. If we translate this to fixed odds
coupon parlance, Bolton at home winning is a 1,
Hull winning at home is a 1, and Reading winning at
home is a 1 (where 1 = home win, x = draw, and 2 =
away win). A loss on this occasion with the
surprising victory by Hull. I retain confidence in this
excellent spreadsheet, and reiterate that performance
is only as good as the selections made.

These spreadsheet calculators focus on backing

2,3 or 4 teams and calculates permutations for you,
as well as working with profit targets OR a specific
target amount. Spreadsheets include Fixed Budget
with 2,3 4 outcomes, Profit target formula with
2,3,4 outcomes, Fixed Return Formula with 2, 3,
or 4 outcomes.
Bottom line: I like this package. It will be of use
to those looking to back 2,3 or 4 teams in
permutation type bets on the fixed odds coupon.

Bottom line: I will continue with this

spreadsheet, which is again focussed on the Fixed
odds coupon. A very impressive bit of kit BUT
reliant on personal ability regarding selections.

Merlin
info4u2succeed.com/ecommerce/
merlinpdc/

The Soccer Magic Matrix

www.progamblingproducts.co.uk/netsale
s/soccermagicmatrix.html

The Merlin Results Radar system is another

spreadsheet which looks to make us punters lives
easier whilst maximising profits.

The Soccer Magic Matrix is available from the

website above. Again it is another sophisticated
calculator, which will help you calculate
permutations for up to 6 different outcomes.

Merlin contends that if you can select just one

result from 3, the spreadsheet will produce the
correct results for all 3 games in the Play worksheet
WITHOUT FAIL every time!

So whats involved?

A treble betting system will look to give us

the best permutations, one of which is guaranteed to
be the winning treble permutation IF we have
correctly predicted just one result from the 3 games
we have shortlisted.

Soccer Magic Matrix is a powerful bet structuring

program. It will allow you to structure single match
bets and combination match bets with the ability to
set your own Total Stake level requirement or your
Profit Target against each bet.

My first try with Merlin came on Week 1 of the

Premiership, where my banker bet was Bolton to
beat newcomers Stoke, followed by Fulham to beat
newcomers Hull and Reading at home to make their
Premiership experiences count against Plymouth.

The principals used by the program are the very

same principals used by professionals to hike their
long-term profits. Despite the use of combinations
being well know many punters, when considering
soccer bets, still only place single bets, backing a
match and just backing one of the possible outcomes
Home Win, Draw or Away Win.

I input the odds with the bet I expected to oblige

(Bolton) first.

wrwm_0808.qxd

20/8/08

16:34

Page 5

The astute soccer punter will capitalise by selecting

more than one match and structure bets to use a
permutation or combination of possible outcomes.

in this example) OR I can specify a profit target (and

reduce stakes by, perhaps, breaking even on a couple
of the mines).

The aim of Soccer Magic Matrix is to open-up

your combination adventures by providing a
calculator which will give you the flexibility and
power to try-out various scenarios very quickly and
to determine if your particular scenario is viable.
Some scenarios may not be viable, for example, if
odds are too low for your selections, but Soccer
Magic Matrix will allow you to quickly tweak
your selections until you have a structured bet you
are happy with. You may wish to produce a total
structured bet where your main bet is covered by a
number of smaller bets in case your main bet does
not produce a winning situation. The combinations
are endless and with just a few clicks you will be
able to establish the stakes required and what
returns/profits are achievable.

Bottom line: This calculator is another variation

of the above 2 spreadsheets/calculators and does all
of the calculations for those who want to place
combination bets on a number of different matches.
It offers, I suppose, a more professional approach
to permutation betting and, at 57, is a worthy
investment for the serious football fixed odds bettor
(although a more basic version can be found, for half
the price, at www.footballsystem.co.uk).
Success is down to your ability to select the
correct betting opportunities. Software such as this
can offer alternative combinations of bets in the
hope that a winning line is selected.

Laying systems

Here I have chosen 5 hypothetical matches with

hypothetical odds. In the forecast selection part of
the calculator I have selected 6 bets involving all 5
teams. Bet 1, you can see, I have chosen Home win
for Arsenal (HW), Draw for Derby (X), Draw for
Fulham (X), home win for Leeds (HW) and away
win for Dundee (AW).

Laying to Win Soccer System Secrets

www.topbettingsystems.com
We can apply laying to any market on Betfair
regarding football matches. In the match odds
market of course, we can effectively back 2 of 3
events by laying 1 outcome e.g. laying the draw is
the equivalent of backing both home and away sides.
The only laying specific manual I could find is
one I have mentioned previously, written by
Lawrence Taylor.
So whats involved?
The system involves simply 4 lay bets and
average yearly profits claimed have been 29K from
1K bank with a 90% strike rate. (NOTE previous
editions of the manual only included 3 lay bets).
Sounds extremely impressive, doesnt it? There
are 9 leagues the system concentrates on and the
system requires at least 5 games be played before it
kicks off properly.
I do like laying BUT some of the odds for the 4
lays, I know already, are going to be huge and open
us up to the betting bank taking a battering if any
anomalous results occur early in the season.

I have chosen a different combination of bets for

Bet 2, 3,4,5,and 6 in the hope that at least one of
these lines will prove profitable.

There has been suspicion, in some circles, that

results are back fitted. This is unsubstantiated of
course and the proof of the pudding will be via live
please turn over

The big benefit of this calculator is the ability to

stake using a predetermined amount of money (100

wrwm_0808.qxd

20/8/08

16:34

Page 6

testing in a new season.

www.ftsincome.co.uk

Again I would suggest you follow my footy blog

as I am keen to try this season long.

This is a service run by Ian Erskine who, I

believe was ill last year. I am unsure therefore as to
whether his accompanying tipping service is still
running and effective.

Bottom line: I have practicality issues with this

system. If there are multiple qualifying selections all
starting at the same time, the liability ring fenced
may stretch the betting bank.

Mr Erskines books offer strategies specific to

trading on in running football matches on Betfair.
From my perspective I believe that there is a limited
number of trading techniques available for the match
odds market. Each trading technique looks to take
advantage of changes in odds in direct reaction to
goals/red cards.

Certain of the lays are at unhealthy odds (as high

as 20 at times!) Liabilities then become a HUGE
issue, as this is NOT a trading system. I suspect if an
element of trading were included in this system, this
would be extremely beneficial and free up liabilities
at appropriate price movements.

15 minute system

The selection process with the manual should

ensure the lays are more often successful than not.
But surprises do occur.

74,000 in 12 months certainly gets my attention,

but my first question is How large are the trading
stakes used to achieve this kind of a return? or If a
trade goes all pear shaped, then how big is the
potential loss?

Laying in general: I would suspect that laying

(as far as football is concerned) is best utilised when
married with trading strategies and it is with
trading that we will now focus.

This is an in running trading plan looking to

exploit draws after half time and profit through
trading OR losing a predetermined stake should a
goal be scored. Of course I cannot recount the
system word for word, but will do my best to find
examples of this kind of trade in order to share with
you via the blog. What we can learn from this
particular system is that to control stakes while
trading, we must back first and then look to lay off
after odds have reduced (ideally!) Why? Because
when we back, we do NOT have a liability issue. If
we are looking to lay first and (hopefully) back at a
higher price in reaction to a certain event, we have
the liability issue. Its an interesting way of
controlling potential trading losses isnt it?

Trading on in running
matches on Betfair

o a bit of Googling and you will be able to find

out a lot of background information regarding
trading AS IT APPLIES TO BETTING
EXCHANGES, in particular www.betfair.com...
Those of you who are familiar with trading on in
running football matches will already know some of
the concepts discussed in this part of the article. But I
hope there will be elements that might trigger some
ideas you had not thought of. So whats on the market
when it comes on to football trading on Betfair?

I dont feel confident enough to commit money to

this system immediately BUT will paper trade and
look at the odds and determine if the 15 minute
system would have profited or not in certain games.

Football trading is OPINION based by and large.

Contrast this with horse racing trading which is ideal
for FOLLOW THE MONEY trading. Horses prices
pre race change in reaction to money for and against,
whereas football trading is wholly reactionary. An
event has to have occurred for the odds to
shorten/lengthen.

Football trading system

Some great advice begins this ebook yes its that
word DISCIPLINE again (where have I heard that
before?) and how focussing on a niche is the key to
success. Mr Erskine is, of course, quite correct.

My contention therefore, with trading ebooks, is

that they CANNOT TELL US when these
reactionary events will occur. Nobody knows when,
or if, a goal will be scored, or a player sent off. We
can only surmise based on past performance,
personal knowledge and opinion, and what we see
happening if watching these football matches live.

This system is another take on the Laying the

Draw trading strategy which is, of course, as old as
Menzies Campbell.
This manual really wont be of interest to anyone
already familiar with the intricacies (and potential

wrwm_0808.qxd

20/8/08

16:34

Page 7

pitfalls) in Laying the Draw. Mr Erskine does

make a convincing case though, and it is perhaps in
our CHOICE OF GAMES where this strategy can
prove effective. Similarly, it is also in our taking a
profit after a goal has been scored which will ensure
success. Remember what I wrote just a few lines ago
laying first when trading involves a liability issue.
This has, to be fair, been addressed by Mr Erskine.
His method of control is certainly workable and,
after a seasons worth of trading on worldwide
football, will negate a large proportion of losses.

A little on Laying
the Draw

lot has been written about this old chestnut

in the past. It all began with the Football
Cash Generator which was heralded as the cash cow
for football traders on Betfair. Over the years, the
basic system formulated in that ebook was shown to
be flawed.
Does this mean Laying the Draw should be
dismissed out of hand?

One obvious advantage that is not addressed in

this very basic introduction to trading is the power
of software. I have said it before and will repeat
myself, FAIRBOT at www.binteko.com will prove
to be invaluable to those who want to investigate the
potential in Laying the Draw trading. The software
provides greening up figures and a consistent
profit/loss figure as the football game goes in
running. And at $99 for the year, this is a superb
piece of software and really a must for traders.

Well, not if you look at statistics regarding how

many 0-0 and score draws appear throughout a
season. The contention is that 0-0 and score draws
are so infrequent that we should profit long term if
we employ a concerted Lay the Draw trading policy
throughout the season on ALL qualifying games.
A look at the blog will show you how many
successful trades were made on this first weekend.
Yes there were a handful of losers, BUT if we look
to limit losses by trading out at a predetermined
point while a game is still drawn (taking a
guaranteed BUT smaller loss) we could very well
profit long term.

Bottom line: The ebook at www.ftsincome.co.uk

is a basic introduction to trading in running
football matches by Laying the Draw, and
although there are some interesting points, seasoned
Betfairians will find little of benefit. That said, some
very interesting points and, whilst following all
qualifying matches where lay the draw trading
would be advised sing Mr Erskines methodology,
we could have profited handsomely throughout
Saturday and Sunday (16th and 17th August) Again,
check it out on the blog.

This is something I am keen to follow. Even

games that end as score draws can still allow us to
profit from Laying the Draw, especially if there is
a long gap between first goal and equaliser.
I have renewed hope regarding this trading
method BUT if any success is to come out of it, then
we must apply some money management rules, and
be flexible enough to take marginal games.

www.exchangetraders.co.uk

Its all about decisions isnt it? If a team is 1-0

up, and has been 1-0 up since early in the match,
then what do we do? An equaliser is a distinct
possibility isnt it? Do we take profits straight away
or wait and hope?

This is actually a tipping service which highlights

football matches where we can find potentially
profitable trading opportunities. David Lauder is the
guy behind this service which charges 30 per
month. Results are available for inspection on the
website, and, if nothing else, you should take a look
at AN EXAMPLE TRADE and IN PLAY
ADVICE to get a glimpse into how he makes his
decisions (remember what I said about OPINION
and football trading).

So many decisions to make and it is these

decisions in the real trading environment that will
determine eventual profit and loss.
Should you e selective or lay all qualifiers? This
is the crux. The stats would have you believe that
you can lay the draw in all qualifying games and
profit season long because of the low percentage of
0-0s and score draws (and what is a qualifying
game? well for me any game where the odds to lay
the draw are 4 or lower).
please turn over

Bottom line: I have not experienced the

practicalities of this service but will get my blagging
head on and try to get a trial. The website itself is
worth exploring for those who want to look at past
trades and perhaps model what a professional does.

wrwm_0808.qxd

20/8/08

16:34

Page 8

Look again at www.exchangetraders.co.uk/ they

operate a different way. They look to Lay the Draw
(and trade other markets) in selective matches only.
Focussing on the few and not the many should allow
us to cherry pick the better opportunities and ensure
a greater strike rate.

Other tipsters
www.football-bets.co.uk
Run by the Oracle, this site is worth visiting if
only to read the articles and inspect the staking plan
(modelling those who are successful is a quick way
for you to profit).

I have one method of Laying the Draw which

will reduce liability, and it is this simply lay the
draw at half time if 0-0 or 1-1. You will find the lay
odds to be greatly reduced and you have a whole
half for one more goal to be scored (0-0 is the
ideal!) try it for yourself.

A profit was accrued last season. The oracle looks

to use confidence bets, increasing stakes with
increasing confidence in his selections.
Please do take a look at the following free articles
www.football-bets.co.uk/football-bet-typesexplained.php

Bottom line: It must not be forgotten that there

are other markets open for us to trade in running
in qualifying football matches (please refer
Premiere Issue of WRWM for more examples) but
I have chosen to focus on Laying the Draw
because, well, the majority of manuals deal with
this market singularly).

www.football-bets.co.uk/football-bettinginformation.php
Those impressed by the general layout of the
website and its content can claim a discount at
www.football-bets.co.uk/wrwm

www.betting4profits.co.uk

Laying the Draw should not be dismissed out

of hand and may prove to be a good profit maker
this coming season. Ill be tracking as best as I
can via the blog at
soccerbettingmoneymaker.blogspot.com

A new service run by reader Paul Waddington (a

WRWM reader), www.betting4profits.co.uk offers a
14-day free trial which is a reasonable time period to
get a flavour regarding the service.

Money management is KEY. Decision making is

KEY. A long-term perspective is KEY. And I may
venture, professional software COULD prove to be
KEY to trading success.

Focussing not only on football, but also on darts,

golf, and snooker. Previous results have been
favourable, especially in the football arena and with
the season kicking off again, now is as good a time
as any to take the 2-week trial.

Do look at the betting portals as there is free

information on trading football matches which is
quality for the price!

www.footballmaestrosystem.com
My close show biz pal and Guinness Record
Breaker for most ebooks written in a 5 minute
period (158), Mr Stephen Brookes, is the man
behind The Football Maestro tipping service.

Football tipsters
Free tipsters

Having actually heard some good reports about

this service (I dont know if the good reports were
good because they came from an affiliate with a
vested interest?) I emailed the Shakespeare of
Betting and happily he has allowed me to follow the
tips for the season.

Both Mark Langdon and Kevin the Professor

Pullein have pulled in a profit in the last few seasons
and their selections are free (ish). Both of these guys
write for The Racing Post. The perception with
cheap or free services is inferiority. But if they
profit, then they profit! The staking plan is fully
explained within their columns in The Racing Post
(both offline and online) and following them this
coming season should show another profit, although
Mr Langdon had a terrible weekend for the
beginning of the Premiership.

The Football Maestros tips are generally of the

obvious kind (Barcelona recently at 1.10 back over
2.5 goals (they won 4-1), but if he can turn that 100
into 10,000 then, hey, who am I to complain?
Tips are received by email and the price is nice
and low. It is very early in the season of course to

wrwm_0808.qxd

20/8/08

16:34

Page 9

actually give any positives or negatives.

newspaper publication produced every Monday with

a superb footballing section. More indepth than the
Racing Post and offering comprehensive articles,
analysis and stats focussing on English leagues.

Initial thoughts? Very obvious selections by and

large that I would personally select myself. The key
may be in the staking plan employed by Mr Brookes.
I am keen to keep an eye on his season long
progress. If the strike rate remains high, married with
a decent staking plan, then profit will accrue it
remains to be seen if profit will be as claimed.

Fancy winning a Premier League Players

wages (well about 1 days worth!)?
Take a look at www.virtualpunter.com 20, 000 is
up for grabs to the person whose virtual betting bank
tops the charts.

footballinvestorsclub.com
I have emailed Michell Khang regarding this
service. Results are not updated which leads me to
question whether the service is still running. An
interesting service if results can be believed. Slow
and steady. Small initial starting bank and level
stakes betting allowed last season for slow and
steady profiting without trading.

Pay 5 to enter which gives you a virtual 500

betting bank thats quite an upside and quite a
return should you top the betting charts come
season end. A very novel and exciting way to bet
without the attendant risk and a unique website
worthy of investment!
Ive put my fiver down and this time next year,
Rodney, Ill be a Brazillionaire!

www.football4profit.com
The correct price NOW completely free!
Worthy of joining if only to act as a sounding board
for your own ideas and opinions. A great resource
for research.

More Football Betting Secrets!

www.soccerbetting.info

Why value lies in

progressive managers
id I mention that football betting is all about
opinion? No? Well, below youll find Karl
Denniss (from the Karl Dennis newsletter at
www.racing-online.co.uk/) opinion on the lower
leagues and the niches he is focussing on. Over to
you Karl

Yes, its catching! This service is free too, and the

benefit can come, again, from using this as an
additional resource.

Research resources

At the start of every football season the fans of

most clubs are usually rather optimistic (Unless
you are a Luton, Bournemouth or Rotherham fan).

www.racingpost.co.uk the RP sport section can

offer some decent angles on games that you may not
have thought of.

Optimism though can soon turn to pessimism as

the truth dawns that their team is not as good as the
fans thought. Yet in many cases it can be predicted,
because the key to success lies, in my opinion, with
the management.

www.betdevil.com unique ratings on each

match super resource giving a quick view on team
A versus team B by unique form ratings.
www.footballbettingresults.co.uk/

Look for clubs that have bright and progressive

managers and youll find those who are going to be
successful. Last season, Doncaster, Swansea and
Notts Forest were all managed by young managers
who were desperate for success. They all won
promotion from League 2.

Football scores for the Premiership in a unique

format giving all the stats on the matches.
www.soccerstats.com/ great stats site for major
and minor European leagues.
www.justin.tv live football matches online

In League 3 it was Wimbledon, Stockport,

Peterborough and Hereford who went up and all
except Hereford had young managers in charge. Of
those sides Swansea and Stockport make a lot of
appeal and it is not unusual for newly promoted
please turn over

www.livescore.betradar.com/multicast/?alias=betf
air&language=en excellent live score site with
sound alarm for each goal scored.
Racing and Football Outlook: a superb offline

wrwm_0808.qxd

20/8/08

16:34

Page 10

I dont know about lower leagues as its not my

focus, and Ive said before, the ideal is to focus on
what you know and try to become an expert in that!
Hence I stick to the obvious Premiership and all
major European leagues.

sides to do well in a division higher. So lets have a

small bet on these teams and look for a couple of
others who are also managed by up and coming
coaches to give ourselves a bit of fun over the winter
months whilst at the same time giving ourselves a
chance of making a profit. This policy has stood me
in good stead over the years and there is no reason
to think it will change.

Betting Strategy Revealed

Handicap manipulation
cracking the code

In truth there is no point in looking at the Premier

League, which has the same tired look about it.
(Interestingly, this is where I differ in OPINION to
Karl the very predictability of the Premiership may
be its strength for the punter! CLIVE) But outside
of this there are a number of decent opportunities.
Well keep things simple and go 1 point to win the
division and 1 point for promotion and that includes
via the play offs.

must admit that I have had something of an

education into handicaps in recent months thanks
in no small part to Martin Blakey answering my
many questions on these races which have been
perceived generally as imponderables and not the
ideal betting medium for punters to profit from.

In the championship Swansea are 50/1 with

Betfred and Bet 365 to win the division and as one
of the best teams to come out of the third tear in
years that is a cracking price. Take the 16/1 with 365
to win promotion. Ipswich Town are generally 20/1
and yet they only just missed out on the play offs
last term and rank a decent bet. Promotion odds are
7/1. But the real snip in this league is Bristol City.
Gary Johnson is a hugely ambitious manager who
brought City out of League 2 to within a whisker of
the Premier League. The offer of 25/1 against them
with extrabet is crazy and should be snapped up.
William Hill offer 8/1 on them going up.

Yes, I used to think like this, but as soon as you

can crack the code and, more importantly, THINK
LIKE A TRAINER, then the clues begin to surface.
We can, with Poirot moustache waxed AGAIN,
unearth those horses whose trainers have been
allegedly manipulating in order to reduce their
weight. Once the weight is down they will naturally
become more competitive and BOOM win at
12/1! (Totally unexpected of course NOT!)

In League 1 Leeds are all the rage but represent

no value. Southend, Brighton and Stockport make
good bets here. In order they are best priced at 16/1,
20/1 and 66/1 with their promotion odds being 6/1,
13/2 and 16/1. The latter price about Stockport is
quite remarkable considering how big they are to
win the division. Manager Jim Gannon is very
shrewd and they will surprise a lot of people.

Let me take you to the 28th July 2008 and the 415
at Southwell, a 6 furlong handicap with 14 runners
declared a class 5 0-75 3 year old+ handicap.

In this article I will be focussing solely on

trainer manipulation by running horses at
inadequate distances.

The key piece of information is the DISTANCE

6 furlongs (there are 8 furlongs in a mile).
The horse in this race that interested me from a
trainer manipulation angle was called COOL
SANDS, trained by J G Given.

League 2 offers value in Shrewsbury at 13/2 to

win the league but they are not worth a promotion
bet. Rochdale at 11/1 come into the same category.
The value lies in Exeter City at 40/1 to win the
league and 9/1 for promotion.

The horse has an official rating of 60 (look back

at the race type which was a 0-75. This indicates that
this race is for horses rated 0-75 by the handicapper).

That is a total outlay of ten points. It wont break

the bank and will give us a lot of fun over the
coming months.

www.ukhorseracing.co.uk/newtoracing/Handicap
pingExplained.asp gives a great introduction to
handicapping. Heres what they say about the
official rating to give you a better understanding:

Some interesting observations (and opinions)

from Karl, and Ive bowed to his greater knowledge
of the lower leagues and put the Keeling millions
(Im talking Lire here) on Karls selections.

The weight to be carried by a horse in a

handicap is determined by the horses Official
Rating. This is a figure given to every horse after
one of the following happens.

10

wrwm_0808.qxd

20/8/08

16:34

Page 11

1. The horse wins a race.

Result 3rd at 20/1. A very nice each way touch!

And only beaten a neck and length!

2. The horse loses 3 times and in at least one of

these races the horse finishes in the first six positions.
If it does not get a top six finish in the first three runs,
then it must continue racing until it achieves a top six
position before it receives an Official Rating.

Another example from the 5th August and

Chepstows 515 race. Again the key piece of
information we need is? Yes, distance.
This race is a 1 mile Class 5 0-70 3 year old and
over handicap.

The Official Rating is often abbreviated to OR.

Once the horse has its official rating, it can then
contest a handicap race.

The horse of interest here is Barathea Dreams.

The horse has an official rating (OR) of 61. The
horses last 3 races have seen it run over 1 mile 2
furlongs finishing 8th on 15th July, 1 mile 2
furlongs, finishing 6th, on 14th June, and 1 mile 1
furlongs, finishing 7th, on 6th June.

Once the horse has an Official Rating it is used in

calculating what weight it will carry in a handicap
race. The actual weight is in relation to the rest of
the runners ratings. Basically, the rating will relate
to pounds in weight. This means that, for example, a
horse with a rating of 55 will carry 10lbs less than a
horse in the same race which is rated at 65.

The horses last official rating on turf was 77, and

today the horse is able to run off 61 thats quite a
decrease isnt it! Result 1st 5/1.

Looking at Cool Sands previous 3 runs, I noted

that the horse ran over 1 mile on 19th June (8
furlongs) finishing 9th, 1 mile 2 furlongs (10
furlongs) on 11th June finishing 14th and over 1
mile (8 furlongs) on 2nd June finishing 13th.

From the above examples, there is a formula of

sorts that we can follow.
STEP 1: Take note of todays distance. Looking
through the form of horses involved, note any who
have been consistently tried over longer distances
(specifically during the last 3 races) The form,
online, will be presented thus:

So, in his last 3 runnings, the horse has finished

terribly over 8 furlongs, and 10 furlongs. The horses
official rating from its last run
on the all weather (we are
looking at all weather only as
Southwell is an all weather
course) was 70.
In the 415, the horse has an
official rating of 60, a full 10lbs
lower than his last all weather
run, and REMEMBER
TODAYS DISTANCE! Yes,
the horse is being dropped to
6 furlongs from the 8 and
10 furlongs of most of its
previous races.
Result 1st at 12/1
coincidence hmmm (he said
twiddling his Poirot moustache).

Under race conditions we are interested in the

numbers beginning 8HY (denotes heavy) 10Gd
underneath, 10 St and 9Gd. These numbers simply
represent the distances of the races in furlongs
(remembering theres 8 furlongs in 1 mile).

Lets move to the 5th August now, and

concentrate on the 415 Chepstow. This is a 1 mile
Class 5 0-75 3 year old + handicap.
The horse of interest here is Red Current. Todays
official rating is 58. In the last 3 races, the horse has
been running over 1mile 2 furlongs and has come
8th, 10th and 7th respectively. The horses last
official rating was 63.

STEP 2: Check to see if there is any difference

(decrease) in the Official Rating from these previous 3
races and todays official rating (Todays official rating
is listed in the POSTDATA table accessible online).
please turn over

11

wrwm_0808.qxd

20/8/08

16:34

Page 12

655 NOTT
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Tasheba,
4/1 The Betchworth Kid, 7/1
Judgethemoment, 8/1 Yossi, 9/1 Directas
Digger, Horseford Hill, 16/1 Salute, 25/1
Turban Heights.
Simplicity really. The above is the
betting forecast in The Racing Post at the
base of the Racecard found either online
or with the traditional newspaper. Can you
see that there is a noticeable price gap
between Tasheba at 5/4 and The
Betchworth Kid at 4/1?
What does this tell us? Well it tells us
that the betting forecaster thinks that
Tasheeba is a standout horse capable of victory, and
the price gap indicates the other horses have
something to find with the short priced market leader.

We are in a strong position if the horse has 1)

been running in its last 3 races over a different
distance to todays AND performing badly and 2) if
todays official rating is significantly, or noticeably
lower, than todays (indicating the horse is dropping
in the weight and theoretically has a better chance.)

This, in essence, is price gapping! No form

analysis, just a degree of trust that The Racing Post
betting forecaster has given us an accurate enough
interpretation of the race (and bear in mind that this
is just an independent opinion and NOT the prices of
the horses). The actual betting prices will appear
from the bookmakers or betting exchanges. Users of
the 16/1 Follow the Money system know that the
betting forecast in The Racing Post can act as a good
comparator, when applied to the live market to
unearth perceived market gambles.

Bottom line: Trainer manipulation MAY occur and

above you have a glimpse into the mechanics of a
potential stable gamble. Not all of these selections will
win but the prices (and equivalent greater odds on
Betfair) will be such that a decent profit will accrue
(NOTE: double figure odds selections are worth
backing each way as the place payout is often decent).

Betting Strategy

Are price gappers

winning gappers?

Is the blanket backing of price gappers

profitable (or could it be made profitable
with a little tweaking?)

aving received a lot of feedback regarding The

Winning Gap system from James Buswell, I
thought Id get the old Poirot moustache waxed and
try to find the basic foundations of this system,
which purported to show exceptional profits.
Recipients of the system have already signed a nondisclosure agreement so, not only did I need the
Poirot moustache, I also needed The Colombo
raincoat and Miss Marple old womans hat!

I have resurrected this selection method, as I have

said, in reaction to the release of The Winning Gap
system. So I have not been keeping as keen an eye
on potential price gappers performances as much as
I would like. Thankfully I have managed to collect
old Racing Posts and it becomes clear to me that the
place only market may be the market to concentrate
on (i.e. we are backing the selections, in an 8 runner
race, to finish in the 1st 3, and NOT necessarily win).

I did manage to find out that the system is very

similar to my price gapper idea mentioned in a
Jurassic version of WRWM!

There has been a frustrating amount of seconditis

with blanket backing of selections without any
further analysis.

To recap then, what exactly is a price gapper bet

from my perspective? The simplest way to show you
is to, well, show you!

Alternatives
Place only betting, for me, looks to be an ideal
option for this type of betting.

12

wrwm_0808.qxd

20/8/08

16:34

Page 13

A look at my blog at www.back-lay-trade-horsesfootball.blogspot.com will show you now that I try to

analyse the race types and ground conditions around
which potential price gappers appear. And it seems to
be paying off, albeit at short place only odds.

11/8

2.34

6/4

2.48

13/8

2.64

7/4

2.72

15/8

2.86

2/1

3.00

10

My thanks must go to Gerald Simpson for

volunteering his take on price gapping. It makes
interesting reading and I hope it gives you some ideas.

85/40

3,10

11

9/4

3.25

12

5/2

3.50

13

Checking the Odds Gerald Simpson

11/4

3.75

14

This system was designed for all races except

for apprentice only, ladies only, conditional
jockeys, with a maximum of 14 runners and a
minimum of 5 runners.

3/1

4.00

15

10/3

4.30

16

7/2

4.50

17

4/1

5.00

18

The forecast prices for the first and second

favourites are noted and the points taken from the
table overleaf. Ignore all horses down to be ridden
by a 7lb claiming apprentice. Also try to ensure it is
not a two horse race and that the price of the third
favourite does not show a large gap from the second.
If it does do not use the race.

9/2

5.50

19

5/1

6.00

20

11/2

6.50

21

6/1

7.00

22

13/2

7.50

23

7/1

8.00

24

15/2

8.50

25

8/1

9.00

26

17/2

9.50

27

9/1

10.00

28

10/1

11.00

29

A different take on price gappers?

The best bets for this system are those which

show the highest points difference between the
first and second favourite. Our selection is the
forecast favourite showing a difference of at least
FOUR points and a possible maximum of 12
points! Going above this maximum is permissible
but you must be aware that the favourite is likely
to be a short price.

Here are some very recent results those of you

with old copies of The Racing Post will be able to
check these selections.

Examples
Favourite Evens (1)

2nd Favourite 4/1 (18)

Difference 17

Favourite 2/1 (10)

2nd Favourite 11/4 (14) Difference 4

Favourite 1/2 (1)

2nd Favourite 3/1 (15)

Difference 14

Favourite 7/4 (8)

2nd Favourite 5/2 (13)

Difference 5

Checking the Odds Recent results.

Starry Sky ....................................................1st 8/11

Make certain that you consider the odds of the

3rd Favourite in order to be aware of the two horse
race scenario.

Once a Gulch.................................................1st 9/2

Go to next Page for Points Table CHECKING

THE ODDS.

Olympic Dream............................................2nd 7/2

Forecast odds

Asker Tua ....................................................1st 4/11

1/1 or odds on
11/10 or 21/20
6/5
5/4

Decimal Odds
2.00
2.10
2.20
2.26

Vilna .........................................................2nd 10/11

Holiday Cocktail ...........................................1st 4/1
Thumbs up ...................................................2nd 7/4

POINTS

Riolina ...........................................................1st 3/1

1
2
3
4

Like for like...................................................1st 6/5

Casual Garcia ................................................1st 5/6
Galpin Junior...............................................1st 8/15
please turn over

13

wrwm_0808.qxd

20/8/08

16:34

Page 14

us to tough it out. A strike rate of near 25% and a

good spread of winning prices augurs well.

Tilsworth Charlie................................................lost
Le Toreador ........................................................lost
On our way....................................................1st 2/1

www.kenneth-j-wilsonracingservices.co.uk

Certain Promise.............................................1st 4/6

All the Good......................................................Lost

5 from 5 successful lays in August to date, and 5

from 8 in July with winners at 11/8, 11/8 and 7/2 SP

Multidimensional ..........................................1st 2/1

Seminole............................................................Lost

Results available for inspection at the site.

Rainbow View ...............................................1st 6/4

Borasco..........................................................1st 6/1

www.threekeyracing.co.uk

Unbiased............................................................Lost

2 from 2 in August and 10 from 13 in July keep

this impressive lay system ticking along. No lays
over 3.5 in price ensure liability control.

Rowan Lodge ..............................................1st 11/2

Trip the Light ..............................................1st 15/8
23 runners 15 winners 8 losers

www.winningracingtips.co.uk

A decent return Im sure youll agree I have

only just received this system but will be keen to
integrate it into my blog. It is a little easier than
James Buswells Winning Gap System which made
my brain hurt!

Poor recent performance and no updates on site

since June 2008. Check the website for results updates.

www.xlays.co.uk
7 point profit since last newsletter again results
available at the site for you to determine whether
laying at average lay odds of 5 suits you.

SYSTEMS AND TIPSTERS UPDATE

Frankie Franks all weather investments
Many thanks to Brian Armstrong for his
continual tracking of the 2 plans which are included
in this system:

www.betplanner.co.uk

Betting plan

www.Little-Acorns-Laying.com

I am unable to bring up this site.

MAY +27.78 JUNE: +14.59 JULY: +13.66 .

Only 9 selections in the last 3 months but 5

winners. Overall position since testing started:
Selections
Winners

Slow and steady is the way to go with this

system. If you want get rich quick, well go
somewhere else! Consistently profitable thus far.

130
57

Andrew Kiernan, the brains behind this Fibonacci

Staking Lay System adds some comments of his own:

Strike rate 43.8%

ROI

20.4%

In regards to Section 3 of the New Little Acorns

book, I now have the ideal staking plan for those
wanting to safeguard their betting bank.

All weather investments

A 74 point profit to level stakes is the good news.
Even better returns using 10% of a rolling bank,
BUT with the latter you will notice on the left hand
side of the results analysis using Fasttrackplans
spreadsheets, a losing run of 18. The question with
losing runs like these is, when you are experiencing
them in real time, how long do you stay with them
until you give up? Well, hindsight would have told

It the same as the previous one (Fibonacci) but

with one less stake amount. I have cut it from 9 to 8,
but with a fundamental change to the betting bank,
the purpose being to help followers remain in the
their comfort zone.
As we know based on 10 lay unit the Fibonacci
sequence goes;

14

wrwm_0808.qxd

20/8/08

16:34

Page 15

day in a cycle of 3 bets using loss retrieval should

bets 1 and/or 2 lose. There are a lot of odds on
qualifiers and, simply put, odds on prices and loss
retrieval dont mix, unless you want stakes to
increase rapidly.

10 20 30 50 80 130 210 350 Total

in Sequence is: 870.
Now what I have suggested based on the above,
is a betting bank of 1,740 (2x 870). Therefore, it
would take almost 3 losing sequences to exhaust this
bank which is highly unlikely. Now you may be
wondering how I arrived at nearly 3 losing
sequences? Well, if we were to lay at the maximum
price allowed for Little Acorns of evens (2.0) and
had 3 losing sequences, then of course that would
equal 2,610 (3 x 870). However, the average lay
stake for Little Acorns is 1.76. So taking one losing
sequence of 870 x 0.76 = 661.20. So the average
amount lost on every one losing sequence would be
661.20. Divide this by our recommended betting
bank of 1,740 for 10 lays would equal 2.63. So
the betting bank could take over 2 and half losing
sequences. More than enough to protect our bank.

I notice a couple of winners at 1/4 and 1/5. Now

if these selections were bets 2 or 3 in the sequence,
the stakes are going to escalate beyond a
comfortable level.

www.computapik.com
I reiterate what I said last month regarding the
results for this stop at a winner system.
Results on the website are verifiable BUT do heed
the warning from last months newsletter. Any selection
shown as losing, or coming 2nd, has in fact lost 9
points, as that is the maximum stake used per day.
Bear that in mind, as at first glance the results
look superb. Remember too that there are generally
3 selections per day and we stop at a winner. So
profits will be proportionate to amount staked, and
whether the bet is the 1st, 2nd or 3rd of the day. Still,
it has been holding up well, and is simplicity itself. It
would be very interesting to note year-end figures.

Now I see that the Gofibonnaci system had a

losing sequence of 10 in July, according to their
website and still made 239 points profit since 1st
Sept 2007. Now, Little Acorns avoided this losing
run by implementing the Beaten Favourite filter. So
this filter together with the ability to withstand
nearly 3 losing sequences of 8 really makes it as
close too foolproof as possible. I am sure you would
agree its a long term profit maker, albeit slow. The
hardest job for me is to persuade followers that this
is a slow burner, hence I keep reminding them of the
title of the Book? If they get nervous by losing lays
of up to 5 or 6 then they are starting with stakes too
high to begin with and should pull back to a level
within their comfort zone, i.e. 5 or even 2 unit
lays. They will then make steady growth, as I am
sure you will feel having followed the Cracking
Betfair system, that backing odds on selections,
the sequence usually comes to an end after 5 or 6.

135 points profit since tests began (bear in mind

9 points are put at risk daily) is impressive enough.

The Favourites
Phenomenon System
www.fpsystem.co.uk
Having asked for testers, they will now be
renewing testing of this follow the favs system
by using the system creators daily advices. My
tester has experienced 13.5 points loss thus far for
his test period since the last newsletter. It remains to
be seen whether the input of the system creator will
turn a profit. A system unsuited to me, as I dont
have the patience. I hope for better returns to report
on next month.

A useful insight into this type of laying and the

new improvements being made to further strengthen
the system.

Target profit per

day systems

Laying systems
www.quietachievers.co.uk

www.sirracingsystem.com

Brians lay service has been ticking along nicely.

Results are now updated on the website and look

impressive but I must reiterate the warning regarding
this system which seeks to win a target amount per

July was a very good month 17 from 20 lays

successful at 85% strike rate and a level stakes profit
please turn over

15

wrwm_0808.qxd

20/8/08

16:34

Page 16

respectable. The service covers football, darts,

snooker and golf.

(LSP) of 13 points (65%). August so far shows 12

from 13 and over 5 points profit. Winning runs of 14
and 9 in the past six weeks.

Miscellaneous

From Jan 7th its 209 from 249 at around 84%,

with a LSP of 72 points the set bank of 1,000 has
more than trebled and the liability bank of 1,000
has almost doubled.

MONEY TALKS FROM www.bettingsystem.info

and Sportsworld Publishing.
After a promising start, this variant of Follow the
Money has continued to disappoint and is not a
system I want to spend time with at present. I will
revisit for the beginning of the Jumps I think.

At 30 per month the progress is consistent and

worthy of continued monitoring. My initial faith in
Brians laying skills seems to have been founded for
this value-for-money tipping service.

www.thetradingplan.co.uk

Free trials

I have been in regular contact with Martin

Blakey, the handicap expert behind this Follow the
Money system because his results did not tally with
those experienced by readers. From a personal
perspective, having spoken to Martin I do not
consider him to be massaging results to suit his own
ends. He has simply included only bets which in HIS
EXPERIENCE (and not necessarily, I would
venture, following strictly the criteria of the manual)
qualify. Heres his answer:

Another look at sites offering a free trial.

www.web.protipsmembers.com
July totals for the month +10.38 at level stakes
and +35.88 at advised points stakes.
August to date -23.75 at level stakes and -90.35
at advised points stakes.

The first thing I do with the plan is mark off all

potential qualifiers well before racing. Then when the
live on course market opens I can easily identify
those horses that I need to monitor to see if they
become a definite bet.

From the same guys comes.

What To Lay
www.whattolay.com
July totals for the month -0.4 at level stakes and
+6.67 to advised staking plan.

After looking at the live market I eliminate any

race if there is more than one qualifier as I am
looking for one stand out qualifier that is well
supported on course.

August to date +13.45 at level stakes and +25.20

to advised staking plan.

As well as any qualifier meeting the price

comparison criteria, I am also looking for a horse
that is also well backed on course. Sometimes a
horse may easily meet the price criteria but is
actually weak on course and drifts in the market
which suggests that a big run is not expected. I
always leave out horses that drift on course as the
live market is a very reliable guide to how a horse
can be expected to perform, especially when used
with this strategy.

The unique subscription structure of What To Lay

meant that unfortunately for them, but fortunately
for the members, they get August free as the service
made a loss in July, albeit a small one. If we dont
win they dont pay!

www.mdlbetting.co.uk
www.punterprofits.com
www.probandit.com

In summary, I am looking for a horse that meets

all the plan criteria and is also supported on course
to a level that meets with the strict rules of the plan.

Add to these sites www.betting4profits.co.uk run

by Paul Waddington. Paul offers a 14 day trial and is
currently 90 points up since year start which is

As to performance USING MARTINS

16

wrwm_0808.qxd

20/8/08

16:34

Page 17

CRITERIA, the winners can be inspected at the site

www.thetradingplan.co.uk/results.php.

category, and my gut instinct is that these results are

not strictly correct (I stand to be corrected of course).

Martin may be offering a handicap specific

service in the future which I will be keen to trial and
report to you on.

Predominantly short priced selections, and

handsome profits since January 2008, I am aware
of the fact that a high strike rate must be
maintained with these selections in order to realise
a continued profit. The jumps season is upon us
and there is no evidence regarding performance
in the winter. I would venture that it is a lot
more difficult to actually profit from shorties with
obstacles and inclement weather and heavy
ground on occasion.

Premier Racing
My thanks must go to Jeff Edwards who has
asked me to warn readers about Premier Racing of
Petchworth, Sussex:
Premier Racing; the outfit from Petworth,
West Sussex has now given out 21 losers on the trot
on their SAEED BIN SUROOR telephone line after
a 7/2 winner which was preceded by a losing run
of 7 selections!

I am reluctant to pay 60 per month and will try to

blag a trial as I have an uneasy feel about this service.

And finally
With my recent return to Guernsey I was not
able to monitor my personal systems and their
accompanying performance graphs so I will try
to update by next month. This also applies to some
of the betting systems mentioned last month such as
Refuse to Lose and the Cambridge Target System.

Other systems to perform poorly include

mafiosibetfair which has produced a 4 point loss
since July no reward for a lot of effort!

Systems and tipsters

to monitor

The Patriarch Presents...

Revealed: a simple
way to profit from
football perms

I have been drawn to Michelles services

because of their realistic profit targets and her
logical systems. I have emailed her asking for a full
trial of all services. She is a stay-at-home mother
who really doesnt know horse racing or football
BUT works using stats and the law of averages to
profit. So her approach to profiting from Betfair is
purely from a numbers perspective rather than any
insider knowledge.

Editorial note: The spreadsheet packages I

highlighted earlier in the football systems article
made mention of permutations. The Patriarch has
written an excellent article on permutations below,
but before you get your gnashers into that, heres a
little background.

nclude Matthew Hallett mentioned in Junes

newsletter, www.tipsforhorseracing.co.uk/ who
provide straight back bets for horse racing and
Michelle Kang.

The following table offers an excellent

introduction into permutation betting.

I am especially interested in her football system

at www.footballinvestorsclub.com and
www.horselayingprofessionals.com/ I am aware
these services might be intermittent but they are
worth looking into.

Ones to note
www.winbetriches.co.uk
Looking at an example above. We have selected 7

Results fall into the too good to be true

please turn over

17

wrwm_0808.qxd

20/8/08

16:34

Page 18

teams and we want to back these 7 teams in trebles.

Using the above table, we have 35 possible
permutations when backing 7 teams in trebles.
Placing this as a bet is simple. Just write the seven
teams names and then write 35 trebles at x per
treble = y stake.

all wrong and eighteen of being partly correct. The

eighteen partly correct lines consist of twelve with 2
errors and six with 1 error. The twelve lines with 2
errors would produce very little profit, if any,
depending on the prices, but the six lines with 1
error will certainly make a good profit. So, thats
what we need an all-correct line or a line with 2
correct. The perm we enter for 3 draws therefore
consists of these seven lines:

Do take a look at the following links which offer

a superb introduction to permutations.
www.footballadvisers.com/football_betting_guide/pe
rmutations.html

1. xxx.

www.duncanwil.co.uk/permcom.html

2. xx2.

www.sports-bettingstudent.co.uk/guide/permutations.asp

3. xx1.

When we talk about the fixed odds coupon and

see 1, 2, and X, what do these stand for?

5. 2xx.

4. 1xx.

6. x1x.

1 = HOME WIN

7. x2x.

2 = AWAY WIN

So, I say again, if we have our three draws all

correct, or much more likely, have only two correct
and one wrong, then we still make a good profit.
One last bit of advice for this little perm. For your
choice of matches take games (which will probably
be the case anyway) where the three possible results
are all priced at odds against. The draw will always
be around 9-4 or 5-2 and the home and away odds
should be in the 11-8 to 7-4 range. That way the
return will always average about 25-1.

X = DRAW

Without further ado, on to

the Patriarch
Im no stranger to fixed odds football and can
recall the old days when games were not priced
individually, but rather prices were set for a certain
bet: such as 60-1 for three draws or 50-1 for four
aways. Youll note how generous these odds were
compared with todays ones. Indeed I can remember
how punters complained when the 60-1 for three
draws was reduced slightly when bookmakers
realised that they had over-priced the bet.

My next perm, if you can call it that, would

certainly not have been possible in the early days of
fixed odds football betting. Indeed, some betting
shop managers might question it today, but it is
perfectly legal and acceptable.

Today, of course, the odds are in the region of 301 to 40-1 depending on the individual draw prices of
the matches selected. Yes, we had it quite good then!
The normal perm then would have been 3 from 4
in four lines, 3 from 5 in 10 lines or 3 from 6 in
twenty lines. Today we can do something different...

Its a Stop At A Winner approach, and once

again it actually pays out best if we have an error.
That is something we can all easily do! We are
looking for two safe home wins lets say Man
United to beat Man City at 4-6 and Chelsea to
beat Fulham at 1-3. We write out two betting slips
as follows. Choose your own stakes, but keep the
same proportions:

How good is your forecasting skill? Do

you reckon you could correctly predict
two draws from three?

Slip 1: Man United to win, 100 staked. If no win,

Chelsea to win 300 staked.

If so, you can still get paid a treble dividend,

something that was impossible in the old days. First,
just a little simple mathematics. Three matches can
have 27 possible outcomes 3 times 3 times 3. So,
if you forecast these matches as three draws you
have one chance of being all correct, eight of being

Slip 2: Chelsea to win, 100 staked. If no win, Man

United to win 300 staked.
Thats it. Now surely they both cant fail to win,

18

wrwm_0808.qxd

20/8/08

16:34

Page 19

but we dont mind if one fails to do so. Lets

see why. If Man U win and Chelsea dont this is
what happens:

Guarantees
3 winners Maybe a treble.
4 winners at least a treble, maybe a 4-fold.

On Slip 1, we win 67 and 300 is returned,

making a total return of 467. On Slip 2, we lose
100 on Chelsea but win 200 on Man U giving a
return of 500. Total returns are 967 on a possible
outlay of 800.

5 winners at least a 4-fold and 3 trebles.

6 winners at least a 5-fold, 3 4-folds and 6 trebles.
7 winners all winning lines.

The other possibility is that Man U lose and

Chelsea win. This time on Slip 1 we lose 100 and
win the same amount, giving a return of 400. On
Slip 2, we win 33 and have 300 returned, making
a total return of 433. Overall profit is 33.

If you dont wish to cover them all you might

choose to do just trebles in 12 lines, 4-folds in 7
lines or 5-folds in 4 lines. And remember, the same
applies to horses too.

AND FINALLY an important message

from Nick Laight Publisher

And finally, if they both win we make a profit of

67 on Slip 1 and 33 on Slip 2, a total of 100 with
the other stakes returned. For the sake of comparison
lets see what would happen if we had the equivalent
normal level stake of 400 to win on each.
If Man U won and Chelsea didnt wed win 267
and lose 400 a loss of 133. If Chelsea won and
Man U didnt wed win 133 and lose 400 a loss
of 267. Altogether, a very different scenario from
our profitable Stop At A Winner perm. And youll
have noticed that Ive used very short prices. Just
think of the profit that would be possible if wed
used bigger prices.

Charlie Wright stole this

online cash generator
formula from an American
multi-millionaire in March
2006... Now cheques for
1,5003,000 drop through
my door every month.

Now for a great reduced perm that could be used

for homes, aways, draws or any combination of
them and indeed could be applied to horses too,
lest we forget all about them this month. It covers 7
selections in trebles, 4-folds and 5-folds. Full cover
of these would take 91 lines. Our reduced cover
perm uses only 23 lines, and still manages to give
some good guarantees.

I guarantee that ANYONE

can do this from home. It
takes just a few hours a week
at the computer. No technical
stuff or gobbledegook...

Heres how to do it. Number your selections 1-7,

and then enter the following:

Charlie Wright Biz Opp Jungle

Trebles 1, 2, 3. 1, 2, 7. 1, 3, 7.
1, 5, 6. 2, 3, 5. 2, 3, 7. 2, 4, 6.
4, 5, 7. 4, 6, 7. 5, 6, 7.

1, 4, 5.
3, 4, 6.

ou know, I cant believe more people arent

talking about this exciting info publishing
business. Especially when you realise how easy it is
to start, fun to run and has the potential to make you
a very good income. It is a very special business
idea for me as I was lucky enough to get involved
with it from the beginning.

12 lines.
4-folds. 1, 2, 3, 4. 1, 2, 5, 6. 1, 3, 6, 7.
1, 4, 5, 7 1, 2, 3, 5,. 2, 4, 6, 7 3, 4, 5, 6.

And so far this year, this strategy has helped me

generate more than 5 million in sales!

7 lines.
5-folds 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.
2, 3, 4, 5, 6.

1, 2, 3, 6, 7.

1, 4, 5, 6, 7.

Now Im not suggesting for one moment that you

could make that kind of money it has taken me
years to develop and I have a head start... but I know
please turn over

4 lines.

19

wrwm_0808.qxd

20/8/08

16:34

Page 20

that it is possible for a complete beginner to

eventually bring in between 1,500 and 3,000 a
month. In fact thats what Charlie is doing right now
thanks to this exact same strategy. And hes only
spending around 3-5hrs per week on it!
You see, this can be run as a part-time business and
all you would need is a basic PC with Internet access.
You really dont need any online experience (trust me,
Charlie finds it difficult to turn a computer on!).
Whats more, the market is wide open, yet most
people including a lot of big businesses and serious
business opportunity seekers just havent cottoned
on to how easy, fun and profitable it can be.
Thats their loss and your gain! If you want to
know more, then check out this link:
www.bizoppjungle.com/cashgenerator/
Also, you can listen to an interview I did with
Charlie on this same business idea by going to
www.whatreallymakesmoney.com/articles/20070319

It is my intention to be as accurate in fact, detail and comment as possible. However, the publishers and their representatives
cannot be held responsible for any error in detail, accuracy or judgement whatsoever. What Really Wins Money is sold on
this understanding. ISSN: 1741 9018
All subscription correspondence to: What Really Wins Money,
Subscription Office, Unit 1, Hainault Works, Hainault Road, Little Heath, Romford, RM6 5SS.Tel: 0208 597 0181 Fax: 0208 597
4040. Registered office: Canonbury Publishing Ltd. Curzon House, 24 High Street, Banstead, Surrey, SM7 2LJ.
Registered in England No. 4765425 Vat Reg No. 811 5700 64
Copyright What Really Wins Money 2008

20