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Bayes Theorem Cheat Sheet

Bayes Theorem allows you to calculate the probability of potential causes or events based on conditions or evidence observed, by first estimating initial probabilities, then updating them based on the observation using multiplication and normalization. It involves determining possibilities, estimating initial probabilities, calculating odds of the observation for each possibility, multiplying initial probabilities by observation probabilities for each, and normalizing the results. An example demonstrates using Bayes Theorem to calculate the odds that a die with 4, 6, or 8 sides was randomly drawn based on observing a roll of 2.

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780 views

Bayes Theorem Cheat Sheet

Bayes Theorem allows you to calculate the probability of potential causes or events based on conditions or evidence observed, by first estimating initial probabilities, then updating them based on the observation using multiplication and normalization. It involves determining possibilities, estimating initial probabilities, calculating odds of the observation for each possibility, multiplying initial probabilities by observation probabilities for each, and normalizing the results. An example demonstrates using Bayes Theorem to calculate the odds that a die with 4, 6, or 8 sides was randomly drawn based on observing a roll of 2.

Uploaded by

Sajeewa Pemasinghe
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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BAYES THEOREM

www.FairlyNerdy.com

Bayes Theorem finds the


probability of an event based on
other things we know

6 Easy Steps For Solving A Bayes Problem


1. Determine the possibilities, and what is being observed
2. Estimate initial probabilities
3. For each initial possibility, calculate the odds of getting the observation
4. Multiply the initial probabilities (Step 2) by the probabilities based on the
observation (Step 3) for each of the initial possible answers
5. Normalize The Results
6. Repeat Steps 2-5 over for each new observation
Example
Suppose that your friend has 3 dice, one each with 4, 6, and 8 sides.
He draws one die at random, rolls it one time without showing you, and reports the
result as having rolled a 2.
For each of the dice, what are the odds that was the die drawn

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