History of science

History of probability
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Background
Probability has a dual aspect: on the one hand the probability Theories/sociology
or likelihood of hypotheses given the evidence for them, and Historiography
on the other hand the behavior of stochastic processes such as Pseudoscience
the throwing of dice or coins. The study of the former is By era
historically older in, for example, the law of evidence, while In early cultures
in Classical Antiquity
the mathematical treatment of dice began with the work of
In the Middle Ages
Pascal and Fermat in the 1650s. In the Renaissance
Scientific Revolution
Probability is distinguished from statistics. (See History of Romanticism in
Statistics). While statistics deals with data and inferences from science
it, (stochastic) probability deals with the stochastic (random) By topic
processes which lie behind data or outcomes. Natural sciences
Astronomy
Biology
Contents Botany
Chemistry
[hide] Ecology
Geography
1 Etymology Geology
2 Origins Paleontology
3 18th Century Physics
4 19th Century Mathematics
Algebra
5 20th Century
Calculus
6 Bibliography Combinatorics
7 References Geometry
Logic
8 External links Probability
Statistics
Trigonometry
[edit] Etymology Social sciences
Anthropology
Probable and likely and their cognates in other modern Economics
languages derive from medieval learned Latin probabilis and Linguistics
verisimilis, deriving from Cicero and generally applied to an Political science
opinion to mean plausible or generally approved.[1] Psychology
Sociology
Technology
[edit] Origins Agricultural science
Computer science
See also: Timeline of probability and statistics Materials science
Medicine
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Ancient and medieval law of evidence developed a grading of degrees of proof,
probabilities, presumptions and half-proof to deal with the uncertainties of evidence in
court.[2] In Renaissance times, betting was discussed in terms of odds such as "ten to one"
and maritime insurance premiums were estimated based on intuitive risks, but there was
no theory on how to calculate such odds or premiums.[3]

The mathematical methods of probability arose in the correspondence of Pierre de Fermat

and Blaise Pascal (1654) on such questions as the fair division of the stake in an
interrupted game of chance. Christiaan Huygens (1657) gave a comprehensive treatment
of the subject.[4]

[edit] 18th Century

Jacob Bernoulli's Ars Conjectandi (posthumous, 1713) and Abraham de Moivre's The
Doctrine of Chances (1718) put probability on a sound mathematical footing, showing
how to calculate a wide range of complex probabilities. Bernoulli proved a version of the
fundamental law of large numbers, which states that in a large number of trials, the
average of the outcomes is likely to be very close to the expected value - for example, in
1000 throws of a fair coin, it is likely that there are close to 500 heads (and the larger the
number of throws, the closer to half-and-half the proportion is likely to be).

[edit] 19th Century

The power of probabilistic methods in dealing with uncertainty was shown by Gauss's
determination of the orbit of Ceres from a few observations. The theory of errors used the
method of least squares to correct error-prone observations, especially in astronomy,
based on the assumption of a normal distribution of errors to determine the most likely
true value.

Towards the end of the nineteenth century, a major success of explanation in terms of
probabilities was the Statistical mechanics of Ludwig Boltzmann and J. Willard Gibbs
which explained properties of gases such as temperature in terms of the random motions
of large numbers of particles.

The field of the history of probability itself was established by Isaac Todhunter's
monumental History of the Mathematical Theory of Probability from the Time of Pascal
to that of Lagrange (1865).

[edit] 20th Century

Probability and statistics became closely connected through the work on hypothesis
testing of R. A. Fisher and Jerzy Neyman, which is now widely applied in biological and
psychological experiments and in clinical trials of drugs. A hypothesis, for example that a
drug is usually effective, gives rise to a probability distribution that would be observed if
the hypothesis is true. If observations approximately agree with the hypothesis, it is
confirmed, if not, the hypothesis is rejected.[5]

The theory of stochastic processes broadened into such areas as Markov processes and
Brownian motion, the random movement of tiny particles suspended in a fluid. That
provided a model for the study of random fluctuations in stock markets, leading to the use
of sophisticated probability models in mathematical finance, including such successes as
the widely-used Black-Scholes formula for the valuation of options.[6]

The twentieth century also saw long-running disputes on the interpretations of

probability. In the mid-century frequentism was dominant, holding that probability means
long-run relative frequency in a large number of trials. At the end of the century there
was some revival of the Bayesian view, according to which the fundamental notion of
probability is how well a proposition is supported by the evidence for it.

The mathematical treatment of probabilities, especially when there are infinitely many
possible outcomes, was facilitated by Kolmogorov's axioms (1931).

[edit] Bibliography
Applications
Two major applications of probability theory in everyday life are in risk assessment and
in trade on commodity markets. Governments typically apply probabilistic methods in
environmental regulation where it is called "pathway analysis", often measuring well-
being using methods that are stochastic in nature, and choosing projects to undertake
based on statistical analyses of their probable effect on the population as a whole.

A good example is the effect of the perceived probability of any widespread Middle East
conflict on oil prices - which have ripple effects in the economy as a whole. An
assessment by a commodity trader that a war is more likely vs. less likely sends prices up
or down, and signals other traders of that opinion. Accordingly, the probabilities are not
assessed independently nor necessarily very rationally. The theory of behavioral finance
emerged to describe the effect of such groupthink on pricing, on policy, and on peace and
conflict.

It can reasonably be said that the discovery of rigorous methods to assess and combine
probability assessments has had a profound effect on modern society. Accordingly, it
may be of some importance to most citizens to understand how odds and probability
assessments are made, and how they contribute to reputations and to decisions, especially
in a democracy.

Another significant application of probability theory in everyday life is reliability. Many

consumer products, such as automobiles and consumer electronics, utilize reliability
theory in the design of the product in order to reduce the probability of failure. The
probability of failure may be closely associated with the product's warranty.