PRYLL JOHN O.

COLITA BSN- II

Climate Change
Climate change is a large-scale, long-term shift in the planet's weather patterns or

average temperatures. Earth has had tropical climates and ice ages many times in its 4.5

billion years. So what's happening now?

Since the last ice age, which ended about 11,000 years ago, Earth's climate has been

relatively stable at about 14 C. However, in recent years, the average temperature has

been increasing.
Higher temperatures
Scientific research shows that the climate - that is, the average temperature of the

planet's surface - has risen by 0.89 C from 1901 to 2012. Compared with climate change

patterns throughout Earth's history, the rate of temperature rise since the Industrial

Revolution is extremely high.

Changing rainfall
There have been observed changes in precipitation, but not all areas have data

over long periods. Rainfall has increased in the mid-latitudes of the northern hemisphere

since the beginning of the 20th century. There are also changes between seasons in

different regions. For example, the UK's summer rainfall is decreasing on average, while

winter rainfall is increasing. There is also evidence that heavy rainfall events have

become more intensive, especially over North America.

Changes in nature
Changes in the seasons (such as the UK spring starting earlier, autumn starting

later) are bringing changes in the behaviour of species, for example, butterflies appearing

earlier in the year and birds shifting their migration patterns.

Sea level rises
Since 1900, sea levels have risen by about 10 cm around the UK and about 19 cm

globally, on average. The rate of sea-level rise has increased in recent decades.
Retreating glaciers
Glaciers all over the world - in the Alps, Rockies, Andes, Himalayas, Africa and

Alaska - are melting and the rate of shrinkage has increased in recent decades.
Sea ice
Arctic sea-ice has been declining since the late 1970s, reducing by about 4%, or

0.6 million square kilometres (an area about the size of Madagascar) per decade. At the

same time Antarctic sea-ice has increased, but at a slower rate of about 1.5% per decade.
Ice sheets
The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, which between them store the majority of

the world's fresh water, are both shrinking at an accelerating rate.

Why is our climate changing?

There are many factors that could cause a change in our climate. Anything that

affects the amount of energy being absorbed from the Sun, or the amount being radiated

by the Earth - the planet's energy balance - may produce long- or short-term cooling or

warming.

Natural or 'forcing'
An imbalance in the planet's 'energy account' can be caused by changes in the

energy radiated by the Sun, changes in greenhouse gases, particles or clouds, or changes

in the reflectivity of the Earth's surface. Imbalances caused by these changes are often

called 'forcings'. A positive climate forcing will tend to cause a warming, and a negative

forcing a cooling.

Sensitivity
 Relatively small changes in the Earth's energy account can lead to further

changes, and these can further modify, for example, the reflectivity of the Earth or the

amount of water vapour. The climate system is therefore highly sensitive to small

changes, as these often 'feedback', and have large, long-term effects on the climate.

Increased solar energy

Scientific research into the energy we receive from the Sun has found that it is not

the main cause of the current warming trend. However, solar radiation is thought to have

been responsible for increased warming early in the 20th century.

Greenhouse gas increase

There's overwhelming and growing evidence that the warming is due to vastly

increased - and still increasing - quantities of greenhouse gas in the atmosphere.

The most important greenhouse gas, in that it has the strongest greenhouse effect, is water

vapour. It increases in concentration as the atmosphere warms. The amount of water

vapour in the atmosphere has increased, but there's no reason for this scale of change

other than the increase in temperature.

Carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane are both important greenhouse gases, which

have a 'forcing' effect (they increase the effect of warming). Their increase in

concentration is mainly caused by emissions from human activity. However, there are

also potentially large secondary effects, for example decreased carbon storage due to

reduced forest growth or the potential release of large amounts of methane from

permafrost, caused by raised temperatures.

The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere has increased dramatically - by about 38%

(as of 2012) - since the Industrial Revolution. As we continue burning fossil fuels and

other activities, the amount of CO 2 will continue to rise. This means the extra CO 2 will

absorb and emit more and more of the Earth's outgoing radiation, and this will further
warm our climate. As the atmosphere warms, the amount of water vapour it holds also

increases - which further adds to the warming effect.

Methane has a strong greenhouse effect, but it doesn't stay in the atmosphere for more

than about a decade. CO2 lasts for about 100 years or more, meaning it has a very long

time to build up and affect our climate. Some of the CO 2 in our atmosphere was emitted

before World War I.

Cutting down forests, one of the major natural storage 'sinks' for carbon, is further

increasing the imbalance between the CO2 we emit and the planet's capacity to re-absorb

it.

Impacts of climate change

Even though global warming is expressed as a single figure - the average

temperature rise of the whole planet's surface - the effect will not be spread evenly.

Higher temperatures, fresh water shortages, higher sea levels and extreme weather events

will each affect regions differently. A region's vulnerability will depend not only on the

nature and level of climate change, but on the capacity of local systems and populations

to adapt to change.

The planet faces a range of scenarios depending on the level of continuing

greenhouse gas emissions. Some change is inevitable but the extent and severity of long-

term climate disruption depends on future emissions.

Impacts on food security

 Food-secure societies and communities have a reliable source of affordable food,

sufficient to maintain a healthy diet for all. For many millions, climate change may

threaten that security.

When it comes to keeping us properly fed, climate scientists from the Met Office

and food security analysts at the World Food Programme agree that some of the world's

regions could benefit from climate change, while others would be seriously harmed by it.

Although it's hard to predict what will happen at a local level, climate change could put

millions at potential risk of food shortage.

Food security is assessed by four measurements:

Availability: the physical presence of food through domestic production, commercial

imports or food aid. Indicators of changes in food availability might include crop and

livestock production trends.

Access: a household's ability to acquire adequate amounts of food, through a combination

of home production and stocks, purchases, gifts, borrowing and aid. Indicators of food

access changes might include food price trends and market flows.

Utilisation: a household's consumption of the food it has access to and the individuals'

ability to absorb and metabolise the nutrients. Indicators could include physiological

development.

Stability: the condition where food is regularly and periodically available and affordable

so that it contributes to nutritional security. Indicators of stability include the impact of

shocks such as floods and droughts on crop production. Changes in climate and increases

in some extreme weather events, such as floods and droughts, could disrupt stability in

the supply of food and people's livelihoods making it more difficult for them to earn a

stable income to purchase food.

Potential impacts on human activity

Climate change has a number of potential impacts on human activity including

water availability, agricultural productivity, extreme temperatures and drought, the risk of

forest fire and sea level rise.

Water shortages

The availability of water will be affected by melting of glaciers, particularly in

areas such as the Indus basin and western China, where much of the river flow comes

from meltwater.

Increased temperatures

Population growth, combined with changes in river run-off (as a result of changes

in rainfall patterns and increased temperatures), could mean that by 2080 significantly

less water is available to approximately one billion people.

Falling agriculture and food yields

Agricultural yields are expected to decrease for all major cereal crops in all major

regions of production. See more about food security.

Rising sea levels

For many areas of the world, sea-level rise combined with the effect of storms

will threaten low-lying coastal communities. There are many areas of dense population,

important infrastructure and high-value agricultural land along coasts, which make

coastal flooding particularly damaging. Flooding events could affect millions worldwide

every year.