IEA Report 24th April 2017

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IEA Report

24th Apr 2017


SUNPHARMA "HOLD" 24th Apr 2017
US FDA import alert on Dadra unit may dwindle the companys revenue from the US business. In the meanwhile the Synergies from the Ranbaxy
acquisitions are gaining momentum and the company is on track to achieve the targeted benefits. Company has strengthened the branded
ophthalmic pipeline further through acquisition of Ocular Technologies. The management has maintained its guidance of 8-10% sales growth for
FY17E, we are optimistic for healthy growth in the long-term. Considering above arguments we recommend HOLD rating on this stock while
maintaining our previous recommended target price of Rs. 795. We are analysing the financial viewpoint of Mohali and Dadra plant and will
update as more clarity will emerge. .......................................... ( Page : 2-4)

YES BANK "BUY" 21th Apr 2017


Healthy loan growth with one of the best assets quality in the industry has led the earnings of YESBANK to keep buoyant. More than 75% of the
corporate portfolio is rated A & above A, which gives us comfort on assets quality outlook. However we see spike in GNPA in 4Q FY17 as one off
and expect it to recover in 1Q FY18.Recently Yes Bank raised capital of Rs 4900 Cr which increased its CET I to 11.4% and Tier I to 13.3% which will
support the loan growth of 30% plus. Increasing CASA with retail FDs is the key trigger for YESBANK for the margin expansion. Focus of the
management to increase the CASA & retail FDs to 70% till FY20 from current 59% will further help to improve NIM. The increased pace of branch
expansion and headcounts will continue to provide healthy and granular retail fee income. We expect the bank to maintain the RoA of 1.9% and
RoE of 19%. We value Yes bank (2.9x P/B and 123x EPS FY19) at Rs 1936 and maintain BUY. ................................................. ( Page : 5-12)

INDUSIND BANK "NEUTRAL" 20th Apr 2017


Among the mid size private bank, Indusind bank remains one of the consistent performers in growth and profitability parameter. Superior loan
book growth, diversified fee income profile and low credit cost are the key drivers of the bank. We expect the IIB to maintain 25%+ loan growth
backed by revival in economic environment and declining interest rate. We expect the consumer loan demand to pick up with improving vehicle
financing and card business giving the boost. Spike in CASA ratio and focus on consumer finance segment will help to maintain the NIM at 4%.
With healthy capitalization of Tier 1 at 14.7% we expect the RoA of 1.9%+, RoE of 16%-17%. The stock trades at 3.1x FY19E P/BV which gives us
limited upside of 4% at target price of 1480, hence we are 'NUETRAL'. .................................................................. ( Page : 13-20)

DCB BANK "BUY" 19th Apr 2017


Net Interest Income growth remained healthy over 25% plus since last 7 quarters. While the margins are near to peak.
Strong loan growth of 22.4% remained better than its peers. Assets quality seems to stabilize with no major concerns on it due to retail focused.
CASA has shown impressive growth despite majority of branches is newly opened.
DCB Bank has shown aggressiveness in branch expansion as a major strategy to expand its reach. But on the other hand, increased operating
expenses have resulted in lower return ratios.
DCB Bank is planning to raise Rs 400 equity capital to strengthen it Tier 1 CRAR ratio to support the loan growth momentum.
We value DCB Bank at (2.2x P/B and 10.4x EPS at FY19) Rs 205 and maintain BUY. .................................. ( Page : 21-28)

JYOTHYLAB "Book Profit " 18th Apr 2017


Going forward, management is confident of demand revival as demonetization effect will ease of. As far as margin is concern, the company is
looking to increase prices by 5-7% going ahead which gives us confidence that company may protect margin going forwards. Implementation of
GST may be game changer for Organized FMCG players. It may boost market share of the company in times to come. Lastly, JYOTHYLAB gets large
chunk of its revenue from South market and South market conditions are improving rapidly which is positive for this company. We initiated `BUY
on JYOTHYLAB on 27th Jan2017 at Rs356 with a target price of Rs 410. As company has achieved our target and considering GST related hiccups
going forward, we recommend to `BOOK PROFIT for now. ......................................................... ( Page : 29-31)

BAJAJCORP "HOLD" 18th Apr 2017


The companys Q4FY17 result is largely in line to our estimates. Volume growth remained subdued in this quarter but improved after
demonetization QoQ. Based on managements recent commentary, we see pressure in volume of BAJAJ Almond Hair Oil for next 2-3 quarters
considering destocking led by confusion regarding GST. Earlier we were expecting EPS for BAJAJCORP in FY18E and FY19E, Rs 15 and Rs 16
respectively. But after recent managements commentary we have changed over estimates of EPS for FY18E and FY19E by 5% and 8% downward
respectively. Based on change in our EPS estimates we have changed our rating on this stock from `BUY to `HOLD and accordingly we have
lowered our target price from Rs 490 to Rs 455. ............................................. ( Page : 32-34)

Narnolia Securities Ltd IEA Edition No.- 999


HOLD
SUN PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRIES LTD
24th April 2017

Company Update Recently company has received 11 observations from the US FDA for its
CMP 638 Dadra unit. In the inspection US FDA stated that company fails to produce
appropriate master or control record for each batch of drugs and failure to
Target Price 795
properly investigate batches that don't meet specifications. Dadra unit is
Previous Target Price the second largest manufacturing facility of the company, supplying drugs
Upside 25% to US market. Another unit of company at Halol is already under US import
Change from Previous alert which contributes about 40% of revenue from the US market. Earlier
in the month of March, US FDA indicated that it will lift import ban from its
Mohali unit. Lift of ban will clear the path for Sun Pharma to supply
Market Data approved products from the Mohali facility to the US market.
BSE Code 524715
News Update
NSE Symbol SUNPHARMA
52wk Range H/L 854/571 Sun Pharma opens first production unit in Egypt, total investment of USD
Mkt Capital (Rs Cr) 153562 12.5 million was inaugurated on 21 feb 2017, signalling growing bussines
ties between India and the key Middle East nation.
Av. Volume(,000) 459
Nifty 9,119 On 17 Feb 2017, Sun Pharma gets European Medicines Agency nod for
Tobramycin.
Stock Performance Sun Pharma recalls 2.7 lakh bottles of antidepressant in US.The tablets
1M 3M 12M have been manufactured by Sun Pharma at its Halol plant in India.
Absolute -9.1 -23.1 -23.7 Sun Pharma recalls anti-depressant drug Bupropion Hydrochloride.The
Rel.to Nifty -9.4 -38.4 -30.4 recall is classified as class-III, which means the products are unlikely to
cause any adverse health reactions, but violate FDA labelling or
manufacturing rules.
Share Holding Pattern-% Sun Pharma to sell Ohm Labs site at New Jersey
3QFY17 2QFY17 1QFY17
Promoters 54.4 55.0 55.0 Outlook

Public 45.6 45.0 45.0 US FDA import alert on Dadra unit may dwindle the companys revenue
from the US business. In the meanwhile the Synergies from the Ranbaxy
Others 0.0 0.00 0.00
acquisitions are gaining momentum and the company is on track to
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0
achieve the targeted benefits. Company has strengthened the branded
Company Vs NIFTY ophthalmic pipeline further through acquisition of Ocular Technologies. The
125 SUNPHARMA NIFTY management has maintained its guidance of 8-10% sales growth for
120 FY17E, we are optimistic for healthy growth in the long-term. Considering
115 above arguments we recommend HOLD rating on this stock while
110 maintaining our previous recommended target price of Rs. 795. We are
105 analysing the financial viewpoint of Mohali and Dadra plant and will update
100
as more clarity will emerge.
Rs,Cr
95
Financials 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
90
85 Sales 8019 11300 16080 27433 27219
80 EBITDA 3204 4896 7002 8064 7431
Jul-16

Sep-16

Feb-17
Jan-17
Dec-16
Jun-16

Aug-16
May-16

Oct-16
Nov-16
Apr-16

Apr-17
Mar-17

Net Profit 2657 2983 3141 4541 3665


EPS 26 29 15 22 18
Aditya Gupta ROE 22% 20% 17% 17% 12%
aditya.gupta@narnolia.com
Narnolia Securities Ltd 2
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report
Segmental Revenue

Latest Events
16 Dec 2016- The necessary formalities for closure of acquisition transaction have been concluded and we have successfully
completed the acquisition of Ocular Technologies.
12 dec 2016- Sun Pharma, Moebius Medical ink pact to develop pain management product.Moebius Medical will conduct
requisite pre-clinical studies and will assume responsibility for product development and manufacturing through the end of Phase-
II studies, as per the pact
7 Dec 2016- Company has undergone an inspection by USFDA recently and post that the health regulator issued a Form-483
observation letter For Halol Plant. The company is in the process of responding to the letter.

Financial Performance

EBITDA EBITDA Margins

50% 46% 44% 46% 46% 3000


44% 44% 44% 44% 44%
45% 41%
40% 2500
31% 33% 32%
35% 31%
27% 28% 27% 2000
30% 26%
25% 1500
20% 14%
15% 1000
10%
1551

1843

2180

2165

2520

1768

1873
1242

1175

1275

1275

2001

1801

1733

1850

1934

2169

2246

500
892

5%
0% 0

About the Company


Sun Pharmaceuticals (SUNP) is one of the fastest growing companies in India as well as globally. It has a highly impressive
track record of organic and inorganic growth. Various US acquisitions augment SUNPs pipeline with differentiated products, and
SUNP has turned around business in a highly profitable manner Taro/ TDPL/ Natcos brands/ etc. It has one of the highest
margins/ return ratios amongst global peers. In Apr 14, SUNP announced its biggest M&A deal ever Ranbaxy (RBXY). SUNP
currently is the second largest player in the domestic market, while the merged entity will become the largest player. Its API
business footprint is strengthened through 11 world class API manufacturing facilities across the globe. Sun Pharma fosters
excellence through innovation supported by strong R&D capabilities comprising about 1800 scientists and R&D investments of
over 7% of annual revenues.

Narnolia Securities Ltd 3


Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report
Financials Snap Shot
INCOME STATEMENT RATIOS
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16
Revenue 11300 16080 27433 27219 EPS 29 15 22 18
Other Income 388 552 452 459 Book Value 145 89 128 152
Total Revenue 11688 16633 27885 27678 DPS 5 3 2 2
COGS 2,073 2,779 6,739 6,483 Payout (incl. Div. Tax.) 17% 19% 8% 10%
GPM 18% 17% 25% 24% Valuation(x)
Other Expenses 2,796 4,225 8,201 8,508 P/E 14 38 47 58
EBITDA 4896 7002 8064 7431 Price / Book Value 3 6 8 7
EBITDA Margin (%) 43% 44% 29% 27% Dividend Yield (%) 1% 1% 0% 0%
Depreciation 336 409 1295 1014 Profitability Ratios
EBIT 4,560 6,592 6,769 6,417 RoE 20% 17% 17% 12%
Interest 43 44 579 477 RoCE 30% 35% 24% 19%
PBT 4,905 7,101 6,642 6,399 Turnover Ratios
Tax 846 702 915 935 Asset Turnover (x) 1 1 1 1
Tax Rate (%) 17% 10% 14% 15% Debtors (No. of Days) 78 50 71 91
Reported PAT 2983 3141 4541 3665 Inventory (No. of Days) 83 71 75 86
Dividend Paid 512 606 363 363 Creditors (No. of Days) 34 30 42 47
No. of Shares 104 207 207 207 Net Debt/Equity (x) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1

BALANCE SHEET CASH FLOW STATEMENT


FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16
Share Capital 104 207 207 241 OP/(Loss) before Tax 4,315 4,581 6,403 6,765
Reserves and surplus 14,886 18,318 26,252 31,164 Depreciation 336 409 1,195 1,014
Shareholders' funds 14,990 18,525 26,459 31,404 Direct Taxes Paid 1,073 789 1,740 1,988
Long term Debt 115 49 1,368 3,117 Operating profit before working
4,475capital4,541
changes 7,101 8,492
Total Borrowings 198 2,489 7,596 8,338 CF from Op. Activity 3,357 3,959 5,322 6,769
Non Current liabilities 1,001 2,886 2,817 2,365 Purchase of Non Current investments
(15,672) (28,265) (28,802) (40,089)
Long term provisions 787 2,602 2,532 2,080 Capital expenditure on fixed assets
(845) including
(906)capital
(2,366)
advances
(3,382)
and capital w
Short term Provisions 1,482 1,961 3,336 3,417 CF from Inv. Activity (2,635) (2,367) (2,671) (4,455)
Current liabilities 2,758 3,549 9,256 8,026 Repayment of Long Term Borrowings
(111) (89) (6,662) (9,076)
Total liabilities 20,583 29,371 49,028 54,220 Interest Paid 38 23 251 300
Net Fixed Assets 5,077 5,824 11,020 13,361 Divd Paid (incl Tax) 512 606 363 869
Non Current Investments 1,106 788 599 593 CF from Fin. Activity (665) 507 (1,087) (1,924)
Other non Current assets 8 0 55 96 Inc/(Dec) in Cash 57 2,099 1,563 390
Current assets 11,503 18,686 29,122 30,865 Add: Opening Balance 2,013 2,260 4,479 7,729
Total Assets 20,583 29,371 49,028 54,220 Closing Balance 2,069 4,359 7,286 8,120

Narnolia Securities Ltd 4

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report


INDUSTRY - BANKING
BSE Code - 532648
NSE Code - YESBANK
21-Apr-17 NIFTY - 9136

Comapany Data Key Highlights of the report:


CMP 1545 Strong loan growth at a CAGR of 33% over last 3 years has kept the
Target Price 1936 earnings buoyant for Yes Bank.
Previous Target Price 1936 Remains one of the best in terms of asset quality in the industry despite
Upside 25% aggressive loan book growth. More than 75% of the corporate loan book is
Change from Previous 0% A or above A rated.
52wk Range H/L 1638/871 Liability franchise has been robust with CASA and Retail term deposits
Mkt Capital (Rs Cr) 70531 crossing 60% of the total deposits which augurs well for the margins.
Av. Volume (,000) 182.06 Strong capitalization with CET I level of 11.4% and Tier I of 13.3% provides
Share Holding Pattern % full support for aggressive growth.
4QFY17 3QFY17 2QFY17 We expect the bank to maintain the RoA of 1.9% and RoE of 19%. We
Promoters 20.2 21.8 21.9 value Yes bank (2.9x P/B and 123x EPS FY19) at Rs 1936 and maintain
DII 10.5 11.2 10.4 BUY.
FII 46.7 42.0 42.6
Others 22.7 25.1 25.1 Financials/Valuation FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E
100 100 100 NII 3,488 4,567 5,797 8,158 10,633
YESBANK is currently trading at 2.3x PPP 3,250 4,303 5,838 7,692 9,620
P/B FY19 PAT 2,005 2,539 3,330 4,492 5,658
4.50
NIM % 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.6 3.8
4.00 EPS (Rs) 48.0 60.4 73.0 98.4 123.9
3.50
EPS growth (%) 7.0% 25.8% 20.8% 34.9% 26.0%
3.00

2.50 ROE (%) 21.3 19.9 18.6 18.9 20.3


2.00
ROA (%) 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.0
1.50

1.00 BV 280 328 483 557 663


0.50
P/B (X) 2.9 2.6 3.3 2.8 2.3
-
P/E (x) 17.0 14.3 22.2 15.7 12.5

Stock Performance % Recent Development : Key Highlights of Result Update


1Mn 1Yr YTD GNPA double in absolute term due to one large account slipped into NPA
Absolute 5.1 75.2 35.1 as per RBI directive of Divergence in Asset Classification and Provisioning.
Rel.to Nifty 3.9 59.8 23.4
GNPA ratio increased from 85 bps to 152 bps.
180 YESBANK NIFTY Despite of huge provisioning on slipped account, profitability remained
170
healthy with 30% YoY growth.
160
150 Non-interest income register healthy growth of 57% YoY backed by strong
140
core fee income.
130
120 After raising capital of Rs 4900 Cr through QIP, CET I ratio is 11.4% and
110
Tier I ratio is 13.3%.
100
90
Advances growth accelerated to 35% YoY backed by healthy growth of 40%
80
YoY in corporate banking book.
Dec-16
Jun-16

Oct-16
Nov-16
Jul-16
Apr-16

Apr-17
Sep-16

Feb-17
Mar-17
Jan-17
Aug-16
May-16

CASA ratio to increase to 36.3% sequentially against 33.3%.


DEEPAK KUMAR
Deepak.kumar@narnolia.com
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report
Narnolia Securities Ltd
Quarterly Performance
Financials 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 YoY % QoQ% FY16 FY17 YoY %
Interest Inc. 3,528 3,862 4,094 4,232 4,349 23.3% 2.8% 13,533 16,425 21.4%
Provisions Interest Exp. 2,287 2,546 2,648 2,724 2,709 18.5% -0.5% 8,967 10,627 18.5%
increased due
to one off NII 1,241 1,317 1,446 1,508 1,640 32.1% 8.8% 4,567 5,797 26.9%
large account Other Income 803 901 888 998 1,257 56.6% 25.9% 2,712 4,157 53.3%
slipped into Total Income 2,044 2,217 2,334 2,506 2,897 41.7% 15.6% 7,279 9,954 36.8%
NPA Ope Exp. 819 910 948 1,052 1,206 47.3% 14.6% 2,976 4,117 38.3%
PPP 1,225 1,307 1,386 1,454 1,691 38.0% 16.3% 4,303 5,838 35.7%
Provisions 186 207 162 115 310 66.1% 168.4% 536 793 47.9%
PBT 1,039 1,100 1,224 1,338 1,381 32.9% 3.2% 3,766 5,044 33.9%
Tax 337 368 423 456 467 38.7% 2.5% 1,227 1,714 39.7%
Net Profit 702 732 802 883 914 30.2% 3.6% 2,539 3,330 31.1%

Despite one off huge provisioning, Profitability remained healthy.


Yes bank reported strong PAT growth of 30% YoY despite huge provisioning of Rs 310 Cr as GNPA
doubled in 4Q FY17.
NII grew by 32% YoY backed by strong loan growth and NIM expansion. Other income also saw robust
growth of 57% YoY driven by all round fee growth.
Operating expenses was also higher and grew by 47%. However due to strong revenue generation C/I
ratio was well within control at 41.6% against 40% a year back. This all led the operating profit to grow
by 38% YoY.

NIM increased by 20 bps YoY to 3.6% mainly due to decline of 70 bps in cost of fund. Yield on
advances declined by 50 bps YoY. Decline in cost was due to spike in CASA ratio.

Profitability Metrix % 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 YoY(+/-) QoQ(+/-) FY16 FY17 YoY(+/-)
C/I Ratio 40.1 41.1 40.6 42.0 41.6 1.58 -0.35 42.4 42.6 0.18
Empl. Cost/ Tot. Exp. % 43.1 44.7 45.7 44.4 41.2 -1.90 -3.24 43.6 43.8 0.28
Other Exp/Tot. Exp. % 56.9 55.3 54.3 55.6 58.8 1.90 3.24 56.4 56.2 -0.28
Provision/PPP % 15.2 15.8 11.7 7.9 18.3 3.10 10.38 12.5 13.6 1.13
Tax Rate % 32.4 33.5 34.5 34.1 33.8 1.39 -0.24 32.6 34.0 1.41
Int Exp./Int Inc. (%) 64.8 65.9 64.7 64.4 62.3 -2.52 -2.08 66.3 64.7 -1.55
Other Inc./Net Inc. % 39.3 40.6 38.0 39.8 43.4 4.13 3.56 37.3 41.8 4.50
PAT/ Net Income % 34.3 33.0 34.3 35.2 31.6 -2.79 -3.67 34.9 33.5 -1.43
RoE 21.1 20.7 21.4 22.3 21.8 0.70 -0.50 19.9 18.6 -1.36
NIM expanded
due to RoA 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 0.00 0.00 1.8 1.9 0.06
declining cost
of deposits
Margin Performance
Margin % 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 YoY(+/-) QoQ(+/-) FY16 FY17 YoY(+/-)
Yield On Advances 11.2 11.1 10.9 10.9 10.7 -0.50 -0.20 11.2 10.6 -0.58
Avg Yield on Earning 10.3 10.5 10.2 10.0 9.6 -0.65 -0.34 9.6 9.2 -0.41
Assets
Cost of Fund 7.0 7.0 6.8 6.6 6.3 -0.70 -0.30 6.8 6.5 -0.33
NIM 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.6 0.20 0.10 3.2 3.2 0.00

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report


Narnolia Securities Ltd
Avg Yield on Earning Assets Cost of Fund NIM

3.6

3.5

3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4

3.3 3.3

3.2
10.9

10.6

10.1

10.3

10.5

10.0
11.0

10.2
7.8

7.6

7.1

7.0

7.0

6.8

9.6
6.3
7.3

6.6
Assets Quality Deterioration spiked as per RBI directive.
Asset quality of Yes Bank deteriorated significantly in 4Q FY17 with GNPA almost doubled in absolute
term QoQ to Rs 2019 Cr.
Rs 912 Cr In terms of ratio GNPA increased to 1.52% against 0.85% sequentially where as NNPA increased to
slippage was 0.81% against 0.29% on sequential basis.
from one
cement Spike in GNPA was due to slip of one account in Cement sector. However this slippage was as per the
company but RBI directive and management is hopeful to recover this account in June quarter. The exposure of Yes
management bank in this account is Rs 911 Cr which is 69 bps of its gross advances.
expect it to Recently RBI also asked banks to increase the standard assets provisioning on telecom sector as pro-
recover in 1Q active measures which raised concerns on trouble of telecom companies in India. Exposure of Yes
FY18. bank in telecom sector is 4.9% out of which 4.2% is A or above rated.

Restructured advances declined to 36 bps from 42 bps sequentially. There was no restructuring in 4Q
FY17.
During the quarter the bank sold Rs 887 Cr of assets. Management said that against these assets,
collateral /security cover is adequate and expected to be realizable.
Standard SDR Advances outstanding at 0.22% to Gross Advances from five accounts of which three
accounts (equivalent to 0.08% of Gross Advances) were restructured during Q4FY17. Total
outstanding Investments in SDR stand at 0.02% of Advances as on 4Q FY17.

Assets Quality 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 YoY(+/-) QoQ(+/-) FY16 FY17 YoY(+/-)
GNPA (Rs) 749 845 917 1,006 2,019 169.5% 100.7% 749 2,019 169.5%
GNPA % 0.76 0.79 0.83 0.85 1.52 0.76 0.67 0.76 1.52 0.76
NNPA (Rs) 284 302 323 342 1,072 276.9% 213.1% 284 1,072 276.9%
NNPA % 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.81 0.52 0.52 0.29 0.81 0.52
Slippages (Rs) 402 300 302 127 1,905 374.0% 1406% 911 2,632 188.9%
Std. Restructured Assets 524 523 512 500 482 -8.1% -3.7% 524 482 -8.1%
(Rs)
Std. Restructured Assets 0.53 0.49 0.46 0.42 0.36 -0.17 -0.06 0.53 0.36 -0.17
%
Total Stress Assets (Rs) 1,273 1,368 1,428 1,506 2,500 96.4% 66.0% 1,273 2,500 96.4%
Specific PCR % 62.0 64.2 64.8 66.0 46.9 -15.14 -19.08 62.0 46.9 -15.14
Prov/Avg Adv% 0.20 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.25 0.04 0.15 0.62 0.69 0.07

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report


Narnolia Securities Ltd
GNPA % NNPA % Std. Restructured Assets % Specific PCR % Prov/Avg Adv%

80 0.30
0.25
70
0.25
0.20 0.20
60
0.18 0.18
0.20
50 0.15
0.13 0.13

1.52
40 0.15
0.10
30
0.10

0.85
0.83
0.79
0.76 20
0.66
0.61
0.46
0.41

0.05
0.12
0.51

0.13
0.71

0.71

0.22

0.29
0.53

0.29
0.49

0.29
0.46

0.29
0.42
0.20

0.67

0.81
0.36
10
72 71 68 66 62 64 65 66 47
- -

Robust Other Income Growth


Non-interest income register healthy growth of 57% YoY backed by strong core fee income. Retail
banking fee grew by 72% YoY whereas corporate banking fee grew by 61% YoY. Cash management
income saw decline of 17% YoY whereas debt/capital market income register 100% growth YoY.

Other Income Break Up 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 YoY % QoQ% FY16 FY17 YoY %
Trade & Remittance 58.0 70.9 71.9 58.8 79.1 36.4% 34.5% 207.0 280.7 35.6%
Facility / Processing Fee 24.8 16.4 22.7 23.5 48.2 94.4% 105.1% 71.9 110.8 54.1%
Third Party Sales 30.7 22.2 27.7 30.4 63.3 106.2% 108.2% 96.2 143.6 49.3%
Interchange Income 34.7 36.9 45.6 51.7 77.6 123.6% 50.1% 120.5 211.8 75.8%
General Banking Fees 33.5 31.0 41.5 49.9 44.9 34.0% -10.0% 116.8 167.3 43.2%
Retail Banking Fees 181.6 177.4 209.6 214.3 313.1 72.4% 46.1% 612.3 914.4 49.3%
Corporate Banking Fees 363.8 409.6 275.7 340.6 586.4 61.2% 72.2% 1,170.6 1,612.3 37.7%
Corporate Trade & Cash 141.2 111.2 103.4 99.5 117.8 -16.6% 18.4% 461.1 431.9 -6.3%
Management
Total Fee Income 686.6 698.2 588.7 654.4 1,017.3 48.2% 55.5% 2,244.0 2,958.6 31.8%
Forex, Debt Capital 116.3 202.3 299.2 307.7 232.4 99.8% -24.5% 468.2 1,041.6 122.5%
Markets
Others & Securities - - - 36.2 7.3 - 36.2
Total Other Income 802.9 900.5 887.9 998.3 1,257.4 56.6% 26.0% 2,712.2 4,036.4 48.8%

Fee Income/Advances % Other Income/Total Net Income %

43.4
39.2 39.3 40.6 39.8
0.8 0.8 37.1 37.7 38.0
0.7 35.8
0.7 0.7 34.0
0.6 0.6 0.6
0.5

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report


Narnolia Securities Ltd
Advances growth remained healthy, CASA spiked once again.
Advances growth accelerated to 35% YoY backed by healthy growth of 40% YoY in corporate banking
book. Retail and business banking book also registered the strong growth of 25% YoY.
The composition of retail and banking business increased to 32.3% against 31.1% QoQ. Management
had earlier targeted the portfolio mix of 55:45 between corporate and retail book till FY20.
The A & above A rated corporate portfolio remains healthy with more than 76%.
Deposit of the bank increased by 28% QoQ whereas CASA grew by 66% YoY which led the CASA
ratio to increase to 36.3% sequentially against 33.3%.
The CASA growth was backed by robust growth in both CA and SA by 75% and 61% QoQ
respectively. The retail deposits now increased to 61.5% against 59.2% a quarter back. Management
has target to reach to 70% retail deposits till FY20.

Concall Highlights:
One large account under cement sector slipped into NPA but that account is under merger &
acquisition transaction, so management is hopeful of recovery in June quarter.
RBI direction with respect to discrepancy in recognition of GNPA has been fully accounted for by the
bank in this till FY17.
Raised Rs 4906.65 Crores (USD 750 Mn) through QIP.
NIM should increase by 10 to 20 bps in FY18 as compared to FY17.
Credit cost will follow same current trend.
Advances growth guidance of 25-30%.
Will achieve its earlier guidance of CASA of 40% sooner than FY20.
Saw some strong inflow in currrent account which may not be sustainable.
Will open 250 branches in FY18 which will be 25% growth.
Established Market Leadership in UPI applications for enabling Merchant payments with a market
share of 30%
During the quarter the bank sold Rs 887 Cr of assets. Against these assets, the collateral /security
cover is
adequate and expected to be realizable.

View and Valuation


Healthy loan growth with one of the best assets quality in the industry has led the earnings of
YESBANK to keep buoyant. More than 75% of the corporate portfolio is rated A & above A, which
gives us comfort on assets quality outlook. However we see spike in GNPA in 4Q FY17 as one off and
expect it to recover in 1Q FY18.Recently Yes Bank raised capital of Rs 4900 Cr which increased its
CET I to 11.4% and Tier I to 13.3% which will support the loan growth of 30% plus. Increasing CASA
with retail FDs is the key trigger for YESBANK for the margin expansion. Focus of the management to
increase the CASA & retail FDs to 70% till FY20 from current 59% will further help to improve NIM.
The increased pace of branch expansion and headcounts will continue to provide healthy and granular
retail fee income. We expect the bank to maintain the RoA of 1.9% and RoE of 19%. We value Yes
bank (2.9x P/B and 123x EPS FY19) at Rs 1936 and maintain BUY.

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report


Narnolia Securities Ltd
Advances Performance
4QFY15 1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17
Net Advances (Rs in Cr) 75,550 79,666 80,015 84,396 98,210 1,05,942 1,10,216 1,17,087 1,32,263
Adv. Growth YoY % 35.8 35.1 29.0 26.7 30.0 33.0 37.7 38.7 34.7
>> Growth QoQ % 13.4 5.4 0.4 5.5 16.4 7.9 4.0 6.2 13.0

Sectoral Breakup %
Corporate Banking % 64.7 68.0 68.2 67.2 65.1 67.5 67.9 68.9 67.7
Retl. & Busn. Bank % 35.3 32.0 31.8 32.8 34.9 32.5 32.1 31.1 32.3

>Bus. Bank (Medium) 16.1 14.1 13.3 12.7 11.1 11.0 10.7 10.7 10.5
>Micro & Small 10.2 10.6 11.3 10.6 13.0 12.1 12.8 11.8 12.3
Enterprises
>Cons. Bank 9.0 7.3 7.2 9.5 10.8 9.4 8.6 8.6 9.5

Rating breakup of Corporate Banking exposures %


A & Above 76.8 75.7 75.6 75.9 76.5 76.4 77.3 76.2 76.1
B & Below 23.3 24.4 24.4 24.1 23.5 23.6 22.7 23.8 23.8

Deposits Performance
4QFY15 1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17
Deposits (Rs in Cr) 91,176 95,316 99,344 1,01,437 1,11,720 1,22,581 1,28,024 1,32,376 1,42,874
Growth YoY % 22.9 25.2 24.0 23.1 22.5 28.6 28.9 30.5 27.9
>> Growth QoQ % 10.7 4.5 4.2 2.1 10.1 9.7 4.4 3.4 7.9
CASA (Rs in Cr) 21,079 22,268 25,318 27,019 31,340 36,288 38,790 44,126 51,870
CASA % 23.1 23.4 25.5 26.6 28.1 29.6 30.3 33.3 36.3
CASA Growth YoY % 29.0 31.2 40.5 45.1 48.7 63.0 53.2 63.3 65.5
>> Growth QoQ % 13.2 5.6 13.7 6.7 16.0 15.8 6.9 13.8 17.5
Credit Deposit Ratio 82.9 83.6 80.5 83.2 87.9 86.4 86.1 88.5 92.6
CA (% of Deposits) 9.3 8.8 8.6 9.0 9.8 9.1 10.2 11.2 13.4
SA (% of Deposits) 13.8 14.5 16.9 17.6 18.3 20.5 20.1 22.2 22.9

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report


Narnolia Securities Ltd
Robust Advances Growth Composition shifting to retail banking

Corporate Banking Retail & Business Banking

71.4
28.6
68.7
31.3
64.7
35.3
68.0
32.0
68.2
31.8
67.2
32.8
65.1
34.9
67.5
32.5
67.9
32.1
68.9
31.1
67.7
32.3
High composition of better rated book Strong liability franchise
A & Above B & Below Deposits (Rs in Cr) Growth YoY %

1,60,000 35.0
1,40,000 30.0
1,20,000 25.0
1,00,000
20.0
80,000
15.0
60,000
40,000 10.0
75.8
24.2
75.4
24.6
76.8
23.3
75.7
24.4
75.6
24.4
75.9
24.1
76.5
23.5
76.4
23.6
77.3
22.7
76.2
23.8

23.8
76.1

20,000 5.0
- -

CASA growth at high pace Trending to improved CD ratio


CASA % CASA Growth YoY % Credit Deposit Ratio

92.6

87.9 88.5
86.4 86.1
82.9 83.6 83.2
80.5
22.5

22.6

23.1

23.4

25.5

26.6

28.1

29.6

30.3

33.3

36.3

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report


Narnolia Securities Ltd
Financials Snap Shot
Balance Sheet Rs in Crores Key Ratios & Assumptions
Y/E March FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E Y/E March FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E
Share Capital 421 456 456 456 BALANCE SHEET METRICS
>> Equity Capital 421 456 456 456 Loan Growth (%) 30.0 34.7 30.0 29.0
>> Preference Capital - - - - Deposit Growth (%) 22.5 27.9 26.6 28.7
Reserves & Surplus 13,366 21,598 24,978 29,814 C/D Ratio (%) 87.9 92.6 95.1 95.2
Networth 13,787 22,054 25,434 30,270 CASA (%) 28.1 36.3 38.0 41.0
Deposits 1,11,720 1,42,874 1,80,874 2,32,874 Investment/Deposit (%) 43.7 35.0 32.0 31.0
Change (%) 22.5 27.9 26.6 28.7 CRAR (%) 16.5 17.0 16.6 15.2
>> CASA Deposits 31,340 51,870 68,732 95,478 >> Tier 1 (%) 10.7 13.3 12.8 11.2
Change (%) 48.7 65.5 32.5 38.9 >> Tier 2 (%) 5.8 3.7 3.8 4.0
Borrowings 31,659 38,607 43,666 49,979 Assets Quality Metrics
Other Liabilities & Provisions 8,098 11,525 13,295 16,373 Gross NPA (Rs) 749 2,019 1,646 2,357
Total Liabilities 1,65,263 2,15,060 2,63,269 3,29,497 Gross NPA (%) 0.76 1.52 0.95 1.06
Cash & Bank 8,218 19,549 18,442 19,901 Net NPA (Rs) 284 1,072 560 801
Investments 48,838 50,032 57,880 72,191 Net NPA (%) 0.29 0.81 0.33 0.36
Change (%) 4.8 2.4 15.7 24.7 Slippges (%) 0.92 1.98 0.66 0.66
Advances 98,210 1,32,263 1,71,941 2,21,805 Provision Coverage (%) 62.0 46.9 66.0 66.0
Change (%) 30 34.7 30.0 29.0 Prov./Avg. Advances (%) 0.62 0.69 0.58 0.53
Fixed Assets 471 684 678 813 Margin Metrics
Other Assets 9,526 12,532 14,328 14,787 Yield On Advances (%) 11.2 10.6 10.2 9.8
Total Assets 1,65,263 2,15,060 2,63,269 3,29,497 Yield On Investment (%) 7.4 7.7 7.6 7.1
Yield on Earning Assets (%) 9.6 9.2 8.9 8.7
Income Statement Rs in Crores Cost Of Deposits (%) 7.1 6.3 5.7 5.3
Y/E March FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E Cost Of Funds (%) 6.8 6.5 5.8 5.4
Interest income 13,533 16,425 20,111 24,604 Spread (%) 2.8 2.7 3.1 3.3
Interest expended 8,967 10,627 11,953 13,972 NIM (%) 3.2 3.2 3.6 3.8
Net Interest Income 4,567 5,797 8,158 10,633 Profitability & Effeciency Metrics
Change (%) 30.9 26.9 40.7 30.3 Int. Expense/Int.Income (%) 66.3 64.7 59.4 56.8
Other Income 2,712 4,157 5,105 5,954 Fee Income/NII (%) 53.8 66.7 56.6 50.6
Change (%) 32.53 53.3 22.8 16.6 Cost to Income (%) 42.4 42.6 43.6 43.5
>> Core Fee Income 2,459 3,868 4,614 5,382 Cost on Average Assets (%) 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.5
>> Treasury Income 261 289 491 572 Tax Rate (%) 32.6 34.0 34.0 34.0
>> Others Valuation Ratio Metrics
Total Net Income 7,279 9,954 13,263 16,586 EPS (Rs) 60.4 73.0 98.4 123.9
Operating Expenses 2,976 4,117 5,570 6,966 Change (%) 13.4 20.8 34.9 26.0
Change (%) 30.3 38.3 35.3 25.1 ROAE (%) 19.9 18.6 18.9 20.3
>> Employee Expenses 1,297 1,805 2,454 3,068 ROAA (%) 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.0
Pre-provisioning Profit 4,303 5,838 7,692 9,620 Dividend Payout (%) 16.6 16.4 14.2 16.0
Change (%) 32.4 35.7 31.8 25.1 Dividend yield (%) 1.3 1.0 0.9 1.0
Provisions 536 793 886 1,048 Book Value (Rs) 328 483 557 663
Change (%) 72.7 47.9 11.7 18.2 Change (%) 50.3 47.4 15.3 19.0
PBT 3,766 5,044 6,806 8,572 P/B (X) 2.64 3.35 2.77 2.33
Tax 1,227 1,714 2,314 2,915 P/E (X) 14.32 22.17 15.70 12.47
Profit After Tax 2,539 3,330 4,492 5,658
Change (%) 26.6 31.1 34.9 26.0

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report


Narnolia Securities Ltd
INDUSTRY - BANKING
BSE Code - 532187
NSE Code - INDUSINDBK
20-Apr-17 NIFTY - 8288

Comapany Data Key Highlights of the report:


CMP 1422 Revenue is growing at a CAGR of 36%, boosting the overall profitability and
Target Price 1480 return ratios.
Previous Target Price 1480 Indusind Bank is continuously gaining market share with above industry loan
Upside 4% growth of 25%. Assets Quality continues to remain one of the best in the
Change from Previous 0% industry with GNPA at 94 bps.
52wk Range H/L 1444/965 CASA is growing with the healthy pace of 43% YoY which will boost the
Mkt Capital (Rs Cr) 85108 margins significantly.
Av. Volume (,000) 78.58 Despite of aggressive growth, operating expenses are under stringent control
Share Holding Pattern % with C/I ratio of 46%.
4QFY17 3QFY17 2QFY17 INDUSINDBK will continue to enjoy high premium in terms of P/B. The
Promoters 16.8 16.8 16.7 stock is trading at 3.1x P/B FY19 which leaves us with limited upside of
DII 13.3 13.4 12.5 4%, so we are NEUTRAL with target price of Rs 1480.
FII 48.6 48.4 49.1
Others 21.3 21.4 21.7 Financials/Valuation FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E
NII 3,420 4,517 6,063 7,184 8,829
INDUSINDBK is trading at its higher PPP 3,098 4,141 5,451 6,670 8,073
range of P/B PAT 1,794 2,286 2,868 3,602 4,334
NIM % 3.7 3.8 4.1 3.9 3.8
P/B
EPS (Rs) 33.9 38.4 48.0 60.2 72.5
5.00
EPS growth (%) 26.4% 13.4% 24.8% 25.6% 20.3%
4.00

3.00
ROE (%) 19.0 16.6 15.3 16.5 17.2
2.00
ROA (%) 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9
1.00 BV 193 291 339 390 451
- P/B (X) 4.6 3.3 4.2 3.7 3.2
Apr-14
Feb-13
Sep-13
Jun-08

Jun-15
Mar-10

Jul-12

Mar-17
Dec-11
Oct-10
Aug-09

Aug-16
Nov-14
Jan-09

Jan-16
May-11

P/E (x) 26.2 25.1 29.7 23.6 19.6

Stock Performance % Recent Development : Key Highlights of Result Update


1Mn 1Yr YTD Operating profit continued to buoyant with a healthy growth of 37% backed
Absolute 2.3 44.0 30.9 by overall strong growth in revenue and controlled operating expenses
Rel.to Nifty (0.2) 15.0 11.3
despite of aggressive branch expansion. NIM expanded due to decline in
cost.
150 INDUSINDBK NIFTY Other Income continued to support the revenue with its strong growth of 33%
140 YoY.
However PAT got impacted by one off huge provisioning of Rs 122 Cr as per
130

120
direction of RBI on one specific cement company.
110

100 Once again advances growth was healthy at 28% YoY backed by strong
90 growth in corporate loan book. CASA was maintained at 37% level with 6%
80 QoQ growth after demonetization.
Dec-16
Jun-16

Oct-16
Nov-16
Jul-16
Apr-16

Apr-17
Sep-16

Feb-17
Mar-17
Jan-17
Aug-16
May-16

Assets quality was stable, although there was spike in slippages but huge
write off and ARC sale managed the GNPA to stabilize.
DEEPAK KUMAR CRAR remain healthy at 15.3% with Tier I of 14.7%.
Deepak.kumar@narnolia.com
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report
Narnolia Securities Ltd
Quarterly Performance
Financials 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 YoY % QoQ% FY16 FY17 YoY %
Interest Inc. 3,132 3,292 3,469 3,699 3,830 22.3% 3.5% 11,581 14,406 24.4%
One -off Interest Exp. 1,863 1,935 2,009 2,121 2,163 16.0% 2.0% 7,064 8,343 18.1%
provisioning NII 1,268 1,356 1,460 1,578 1,667 31.5% 5.6% 4,517 6,063 34.2%
impacted the Other Income 913 973 970 1,017 1,211 32.7% 19.1% 3,297 4,171 26.5%
PAT growth
Total Income 2,181 2,329 2,431 2,595 2,879 32.0% 10.9% 7,814 10,234 31.0%
Ope Exp. 1,030 1,096 1,149 1,232 1,307 26.9% 6.1% 3,672 4,783 30.3%
PPP 1,151 1,234 1,282 1,363 1,572 36.6% 15.3% 4,141 5,451 31.6%
Provisions 214 230 214 217 430 101.3% 98.4% 672 1,091 62.4%
PBT 938 1,003 1,068 1,146 1,142 21.8% -0.4% 3,469 4,360 25.7%
Tax 317 342 364 396 390 23.1% -1.4% 1,183 1,492 26.1%
Net Profit 620 661 704 751 752 21.2% 0.1% 2,286 2,868 25.4%

Operating profit was in line with expectation, One-off provisioning hit bottom line.
Net Interest income grew with a healthy rate of 32% YoY backed by robust NIM expansion and healthy
loan growth.
Other income grew by by 33% YoY supported by both fee income and treasury income growth. Fee
income remained healthy with 29% YoY growth whereas treasury income reported a growth of 55%
YoY.

Operating expenses grew by only 27% YoY which led the cost to income ratio decline to 45.4%
against 47.2% a year back.
Overall operating profit grew by a healthy rate of 36.65 YoY backed by all round strong performance in
terms of NII, other income and C/I ratio.
However despite robust operating profit, PAT grew by only 21% YoY hit by one off provisioning on
standard assets of Rs 122 Cr on one of the exposure of bank in cement industry. Provisioning was
done pursuant to specific RBI advice in this regard.

Profitability Metrix 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 YoY(+/-) QoQ(+/-) FY16 FY17 YoY %
C/I Ratio % 47.2 47.0 47.3 47.5 45.4 -1.83 -2.08 50.4 60.9 10.57
Empl. Cost/ Tot. Exp. % 32.7 32.6 32.7 32.0 30.2 -2.49 -1.81 33.7 31.8 -1.86
Continued Other Exp/Tot. Exp.% 67.3 67.4 67.3 68.0 69.8 2.49 1.81 66.3 68.2 1.86
healthy growth in Provision/PPP % 18.6 18.7 16.7 15.9 27.4 8.80 11.45 16.2 20.0 3.79
NII
Tax Rate % 33.8 34.1 34.0 34.5 34.2 0.36 -0.34 34.1 34.2 0.12
Int Exp./Int Inc. (%) 59.5 58.8 57.9 57.3 56.5 -3.04 -0.87 61.0 57.9 -3.08
Other Inc./Net Inc. % 41.9 41.8 39.9 39.2 42.1 0.23 2.90 42.2 40.8 -1.43
PAT/ Net Income % 28.4 28.4 29.0 28.9 26.1 -2.33 -2.82 29.3 28.0 -1.24
PAT Growth % 25.3 26.0 25.8 29.2 21.2 -4.10 -8.03 27.5 25.4 -2.04
NII Growth % (YoY) 37.1 38.3 33.4 34.5 31.5 -5.60 -3.03 32.1 34.2 2.18
Operating Profit Growth 35.4 33.7 27.3 28.5 36.6 1.22 8.08 33.7 31.6 -2.05
YoY
RoE %
% 14.6 15.1 15.4 15.7 15.1 0.56 -0.60 16.6 15.3 -1.33
RoA % 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.7 -0.16 -0.14 1.9 2.0 0.03

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report


Narnolia Securities Ltd
NIM expanded, benefitting from declining cost
NIM has improved by 6bps YoY to 4% but remain flat QoQ. Improvement in NIM was backed by
decline in cost of fund.
Cost of fund declined by 54bps YoY to 5.19%. Cost of deposits fall by 98 bps YoY to 6.08% as on 4Q
FY17. Decline in cost of deposits may be attributed to higher CASA ratio which increased due to
demonetization.
Overall Yield of Indusindbk declined by 48bps to 9.19%. Yield on advances declined by 41 bps YoY to
11.41%. Yield on consumer finance division declined by 98 YoY bps whereas corporate portfolio saw
as decline of 98 bps YoY in its Yield.

Declining Cost of Margin Performance


Margin % 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 YoY(+/-) QoQ(+/-) FY16 FY17 YoY %
fund coupled
with focus on Yield on Advances 12.0 12.1 11.9 11.7 11.4 -0.63 -0.32 12.3 11.8 -0.53

higher yield Yield (Corp. Loan) 10.1 10.2 9.9 9.8 9.1 -0.98 -0.66 10.1 9.8 -0.39
product is Yield (Ret. Loans) 14.9 14.6 14.6 14.5 14.5 -0.41 -0.04 15.3 14.6 -0.72
helping NIM to Yield (Total Assets) 9.7 9.6 9.5 9.3 9.2 -0.48 -0.08 9.8 9.4 -0.42
expand. Cost of Deposits 7.1 6.9 6.6 6.4 6.1 -0.98 -0.27 7.3 6.5 -0.81
Cost Of Funds 5.7 5.7 5.5 5.3 5.2 -0.54 -0.08 6.0 5.4 -0.56
NIM 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 0.06 0 3.9 4.0 0.14

Yield on Total Assets Cost Of Funds NIM

4.00 4.00 4.00


3.97
3.94
3.91
10.13

10.09

3.88
9.80

9.71

9.67

9.64

9.51

9.27

9.19
6.45

6.41

3.68 3.68
5.92

5.80

5.73

5.67

5.51

5.27

5.19

Healthy Advances growth was backed by strong corporate loan book growth.
Strong loan growth momentum continued in this quarter also with 28% YoY growth backed by healthy
growth in corporate loan book.
Corporate loan book grew by 30% YoY and consumer finance book grew by 25% YoY. Management
highlighted that corporate book grew due to strong working capital demand as pricing of INDUSINDBK
is now competitive and also they have added some new client.

Vehicle finance book grew by 19% YoY whereas non vehicle book grew by 365 YoY. Credit card
showed strong growth of 425 YoY, LAP grew by 54% YoY, car loan grew by 19% and equipment
financing grew by 27%.

Now management has shifted to PLANNING-4 stage from FY18 FY20 under which it intends loan mix
between corporate and consumer to be 50:50 and within consumer loan book mix would be 50:50
between vehicle finance and other retail book. This strategy will support the NIM due to higher yield in
consumer finance book.

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report


Narnolia Securities Ltd
Deposits grew by 36% YoY mainly due to demonetization effect. CASA grew by 43% YoY which led
the CASA ratio to 37%. SA increased by 57% and CA increased by 27% YoY.
Management highlighted that the increase in CASA can be attributed equally to both- customer
acquisition as well as demonetization.
Under PLANNING-4 stage management intends to reach CASA ratio of 40%.

Higher write offs led the stable assets quality


Slippages increased by 126% QoQ led to two large corporate accounts. However management wrote
off huge chunk of it and sold Rs 192 of it to ARC and provided the loss fully in current quarter itself and
decided not to amortize it. Slippage in corporate book was Rs 457 Cr against Rs 111 Cr in 3Q FY17.
While slippage in Consumer book was Rs 177 Cr against Rs 170 Cr on 3Q FY17.

Due to huge write off GNPA declined by 1 bps to 93 bps and NNPA remained stable at 39 bps QoQ.
Restructured assets declined to 37 bps against 41 bps on 3Q FY17. The decline was due to slip of
some accounts into NPA.
PCR decline to 58% from 59% a quarter back. Credit cost was 23 bps for the quarter and it was 68
bps for FY17
Due to specific RBI advice in one of the Cement company which is in process of Merger & Acquisition,
Indusindbk has made standard assets provisioning of Rs 122 Cr on it. However management is
hopeful for full repayment from this account in june quarter and will write back some part of
provisioning on it. 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 YoY(+/-) QoQ(+/-) FY16 FY17 YoY %
GNPA (Rs) 777 861 899 971 1,055 35.8% 8.7% 777 1,055 35.8%
GNPA % 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.06 -0.01 0.9 0.9 0.06
NNPA (Rs) 322 356 369 401 439 36.4% 9.5% 322 439 36.4%
NNPA % 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.03 0.00 0.4 0.4 0.03
Slippages (Rs) 274 253 261 281 634 131.4% 125.6% 848 1,429 68.5%
Restructured Assets % 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 -0.16 -0.04 0.5 0.4 -0.16
Total Stress Assets (Rs) 471 461 438 424 421 -10.7% -0.7% 471 421 -10.7%
(GNPA+Std.
Specific PCR Rest.)
% 58.6 58.7 59.0 58.7 58.4 -0.20 -0.31 58.6 58.4 -0.20

GNPA
Composition 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 YoY(+/-) QoQ(+/-) FY16 FY17 YoY %
Commercial Vehicle 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 -0.03 -0.05 1.0 1.0 -0.03
Utility 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 -0.09 0.05 1.2 1.1 -0.09
Construction Equipment 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.2 -0.08 -0.06 1.3 1.2 -0.08
Small CV 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.9 -0.08 0.07 1.0 0.9 -0.08
TW 3.0 3.2 3.6 3.6 3.5 0.50 -0.08 3.0 3.5 0.5
Cars 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.16 -0.09 0.5 0.7 0.16
LAP/HL/PL 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.22 0.06 0.7 0.9 0.22
Tractor - 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.37 0.09 - 0.4 0.37
Cards 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.3 -0.11 -0.28 1.5 1.3 -0.11
Total 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.04 -0.04 1.1 1.1 0.04

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report


Narnolia Securities Ltd
GNPA % NNPA % Specific PCR % Prov/Avg Adv% (Annl.)

63 1.80
62 1.60
1.40
61
1.20
60 1.00
59 0.80
0.60
58
0.40
0.31

0.31

0.33

0.91
0.38

0.90
0.37

0.94
0.31

0.87
0.81

0.79

0.77

0.82

0.39

0.39
0.36

0.93
57 0.20

63

60

60

59

59

59

58
61

59
56 -

Granular fee income and treasury income remain healthy.


Other income grew by by 33% YoY supported by both fee income and treasury income growth. Fee
income remained healthy with 29% YoY growth whereas treasury income reported a growth of 55%
YoY.
Under the fee income distribution fees has grown by 74% YoY as management said that they earned a
good income from mutual fund distribution due to flow of excess fund from banks to mutual fund
industry. Investment banking fee grew by 30% YoY.

Other Income Break Up 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 YoY(+/-) QoQ(+/-) FY16 FY17 YoY(+/-)
Trade and Remit. 97 109 103 106 121 24.4% 14.0% 323 439 36.0%
Foreign Exchange Income 140 151 156 179 170 21.4% -5.2% 639 656 2.6%
Distribution Fees 138 137 156 181 241 74.2% 33.0% 491 715 45.7%
General Banking Fees 48 56 49 64 63 30.4% -1.1% 185 232 25.3%
Loan Processing fees 228 215 201 195 243 6.6% 24.9% 663 854 28.9%
Investment Banking 122 114 161 160 159 30.1% -0.5% 472 594 25.8%
Total Fee-Based In. 774 782 826 885 997 28.8% 12.7% 2,772 3,489 25.9%
Securities/MM/FX 139 191 145 132 215 55.1% 62.9% 487 683 40.1%
Trading/Others
Total Other Income 913 973 970 1,017 1,212 32.8% 19.2% 3,260 4,172 28.0%

Fee Income/ Advances % Other Income/ Total Income %

42.5
0.90
42.1
41.7 41.7 41.9 41.8
0.88
0.88
0.86 0.86
0.85 39.9
39.6
0.83 0.83
0.83 39.2

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report


Narnolia Securities Ltd
View and Valuation
Among the mid size private bank, Indusind bank remains one of the consistent performers in growth
and profitability parameter. Superior loan book growth, diversified fee income profile and low credit
cost are the key drivers of the bank. We expect the IIB to maintain 25%+ loan growth backed by
revival in economic environment and declining interest rate. We expect the consumer loan demand
to pick up with improving vehicle financing and card business giving the boost. Spike in CASA ratio
and focus on consumer finance segment will help to maintain the NIM at 4%. With healthy
capitalization of Tier 1 at 14.7% we expect the RoA of 1.9%+, RoE of 16%-17%. The stock trades at
3.1x FY19E P/BV which gives us limited upside of 4% at target price of 1480, hence we are
'NUETRAL'.
Concall Highlights :
Rs 122 Cr provisions have been made as per RBI directory on standard assets, management is
hopeful of reversal in 1Q FY18.
There was surge in working capital loan demand due to competitive pricing and acquisition of new
client.
Guidance for Planning Phase-4 till FY20- Loan growth of 25%, CASA to reach 40%, double the client
base, Branch target of 2000.
Looking option for inorganic growth.
Two large accounts slipped into NPA. Management wrote off it and sold Rs 192 Cr to ARC.
Will reduce C/I ratio by 2% in next 3 years.
Will reach 20% RoE in 3 years.
Moving to new concept of RORWA and has a benchmark of 2.4%.
Distribution income surged due to higher fee income from mutual funds.

Advances Performance
4QFY15 1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17
Net Advances (Rs in Cr) 68,788 72,243 78,294 82,167 88,419 93,678 98,949 1,02,770 1,13,081
Adv. Growth YoY % 24.8 23.1 30.6 28.7 28.5 29.7 26.4 25.1 27.9
>> Growth QoQ % 7.7 5.0 8.4 4.9 7.6 5.9 5.6 3.9 10.0

Sectoral Breakup %
Corporate Banking% 58.7 58.5 59.2 58.3 58.7 58.8 59.0 58.3 59.7
Consumer Finance% 41.3 41.5 40.8 41.7 41.3 41.2 41.0 41.7 40.3

Deposits Performance
4QFY15 1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17
Deposits (Rs in Cr) 74,134 77,693 80,841 86,423 93,000 1,01,768 1,12,313 1,19,218 1,26,572
>> Growth YoY % 22.5 21.6 22.5 24.6 25.4 31.0 38.9 37.9 36.1
>> Growth QoQ % 6.9 4.8 4.1 6.9 7.6 9.4 10.4 6.1 6.2
CASA (Rs) 25,300 26,945 28,085 30,232 32,724 35,043 41,034 44,162 46,646
>>CASA Growth YoY % 28.5 26.5 25.6 27.9 29.3 30.1 46.1 46.1 42.5
>> Growth QoQ % 7.0 6.5 4.2 7.6 8.2 7.1 17.1 7.6 5.6
CASA % 34.1 34.7 34.7 35.0 35.2 34.4 36.5 37.0 36.9
CA % 16.7 16.6 16.1 16.3 16.6 15.7 18.2 15.9 15.5
SA % 17.5 18.0 18.6 18.7 18.5 18.8 18.3 21.1 21.4
Credit Deposit Ratio 92.8 93.0 96.8 95.1 95.1 92.1 88.1 86.2 89.3

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report


Narnolia Securities Ltd
Advances Growth remained healthy Mix remained balanced
Net Advances (Rs in Cr) Adv. Growth YoY % Corporate Banking % Consumer Finance %

1,20,000 35.00
58.7 58.5 59.2 58.3 58.7 58.8 59.0 58.3 59.7
1,00,000 30.00
25.00 41.3 41.5 40.8 41.7 41.3 41.2 41.0 41.7
80,000 40.3
20.00
60,000
15.00
40,000
10.00
20,000 5.00
- -

Healthy deposit growth CASA spiked led by demonetization


Deposits (Rs in Cr) Growth YoY % CASA % CASA Growth YoY %

1,40,000 45.00
1,20,000 40.00
35.00
1,00,000
30.00
80,000 25.00
60,000 20.00
15.00
40,000
10.00
34.7

35.2

37.0

36.9
34.7

20,000
34.1

35.0

34.4

36.5
5.00
- -

CD Ratio remained in higher range Stringent control on C/I ratio


Empl. Cost/ Tot. Exp. % Other Exp/Tot. Exp.%
Credit Deposit Ratio
C/I Ratio %

46.3 45.9 46.4 47.3 47.2 47.0 47.3 47.5 45.4


65.2

34.5
65.5

34.3
65.7

32.6

32.7

32.0
36.2
63.8

34.8

32.7

67.4

67.3

68.0

30.2
69.8
67.3

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report


Narnolia Securities Ltd
Financials Snap Shot
Balance Sheet Rs in Crores Key Ratios & Assumptions
Y/E March FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E Y/E March FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E
Share Capital 595 598 598 598 Balance Sheet Metrics
>> Equity Capital 595 598 598 598 Loan Growth (%) 28.5 27.9 22.2 25.0
>> Preference Capital - - - - Deposit Growth (%) 25.4 36.1 21.3 25.0
Reserves & Surplus 17,101 20,048 23,110 26,793 C/D Ratio (%) 95.1 89.3 90.0 90.0
Networth 17,301 20,250 23,311 26,994 CASA (%) 35.2 36.9 37.0 38.0
Deposits 93,000 1,26,572 1,53,506 1,91,882 Investment/Deposit (%) 33.6 29.0 31.0 31.0
Change (%) 25.4 36.1 21.3 25.0 CRAR (%) 15.5 15.3 13.5 12.6
>> CASA Deposits 88,097 1,12,642 1,40,699 1,75,785 >> Tier 1 (%) 14.9 14.7 13.1 12.2
Change (%) 29.3 27.9 24.9 24.9 >> Tier 2 (%) 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3
Borrowings 22,156 22,454 29,407 36,759 Assets Quality Metrics
Other Liabilities & Provisions 7,205 8,976 11,329 14,161 Gross NPA 777 1,055 1,421 1,865
Total Liabilities 1,40,057 1,78,648 2,17,950 2,70,193 Gross NAP (%) 0.87 0.93 1.00 1.05
Cash & Bank 10,112 18,628 18,044 21,771 Net NPA 322 439 583 765
Investments 31,214 36,702 47,562 59,452 Net NPA (%) 0.36 0.39 0.42 0.44
Change (%) 36.4 17.6 29.6 25.0 Slippges (%) 0.95 1.26 1.07 1.07
Advances 88,419 1,13,081 1,38,155 1,72,694 Provision Coverage (%) 58.6 58.4 59.0 59.0
Change (%) 28.5 27.9 22.2 25.0 Provision/Average Advances (%) 0.86 1.08 0.90 0.90
Fixed Assets 1,255 1,335 1,384 1,453 Margin Metrics
Other Assets 9,057 8,902 12,805 14,823 Yield On Advances (%) 11.8 11.4 10.7 10.4
Total Assets 1,40,057 1,78,648 2,17,950 2,70,193 Yield On Investment (%) 6.6 7.3 7.0 6.9
Yield on Earning Assets (%) 9.8 9.7 9.1 8.9
Income Statement Rs in Crores Cost Of Deposits (%) 6.8 6.5 5.8 5.6
Y/E March FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E Cost Of Funds (%) 6.5 6.1 5.7 5.5
Interest income 11,581 14,406 16,896 20,489 Spread (%) 3.3 3.5 3.4 3.5
Interest expended 7,064 8,343 9,712 11,661 NIM (%) 3.8 4.1 3.9 3.8
Net Interest Income 4,517 6,063 7,184 8,829 Profitability & Effeciency Metrics
Change (%) 32.1 34.2 18.5 22.9 Int. Expense/Int.Income (%) 61.0 57.9 57.5 56.9
Other Income 3,297 4,171 5,350 6,343 Fee Income/NII (%) 61.4 57.6 63.7 64.8
Change (%) 24.3 26.5 28.3 18.5 Cost to Income (%) 50.4 50.1 49.9 48.8
>> Core Fee Income 2,772 3,489 4,577 5,721 Cost on Average Assets (%) 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.1
>> Treasury Income 487 683 773 621 Tax Rate (%) 34.1 34.2 35.0 35.0
>> Others 37 (1) - (0) Valuation Ratio Metrics
Total Net Income 7,814 10,234 12,534 15,171 EPS (Rs) 38.4 48.0 60.2 72.5
Operating Expenses 3,672 4,783 5,865 7,099 Change (%) 13.4 24.8 25.6 20.3
Change (%) 34.7 30.3 22.6 21.0 ROAE (%) 16.6 15.3 16.5 17.2
>> Employee Expenses 1,236 1,521 1,870 2,263 ROAA (%) 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9
Pre-provisioning Profit 4,141 5,451 6,670 8,073 Dividend Payout (%) 14.1 15.0 15.0 15.0
Change (%) 33.6 31.6 22.4 21.0 Dividend yield (%) 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6
Provisions 672 1,091 1,127 1,406 Book Value (Rs) 291 339 390 451
Change (%) 72.7 62.4 3.3 24.7 Change (%) 50.3 16.5 15.1 15.8
PBT 3,469 4,360 5,542 6,667 P/B (X) 3.32 4.20 3.65 3.15
Tax 1,183 1,492 1,940 2,333 P/E (X) 25.11 29.67 23.62 19.64
Profit After Tax 2,286 2,868 3,602 4,334
Change (%) 27.4 25.4 25.6 20.3

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report


Narnolia Securities Ltd
INDUSTRY - BANKING
BSE Code - 532772
NSE Code - DCBBANK
19-Apr-17 NIFTY - 9105

Comapany Data Key Highlights of the report:


CMP 177 Net Interest Income growth remained healthy over 25% plus since last 7
Target Price 205 quarters. While the margins are near to peak.
Previous Target Price N/A Strong loan growth of 22.4% remained better than its peers. Assets quality
Upside 16% seems to stabilize with no major concerns on it due to retail focused. CASA
Change from Previous N/A has shown impressive growth despite majority of branches is newly opened.
52wk Range H/L 184/87 DCB Bank has shown aggressiveness in branch expansion as a major
Mkt Capital (Rs Cr) 5060 strategy to expand its reach. But on the other hand, increased operating
Av. Volume (,000) 531 expenses have resulted in lower return ratios.

Share Holding Pattern % DCB Bank is planning to raise Rs 400 equity capital to strengthen it Tier 1
4QFY17 3QFY17 2QFY17 CRAR ratio to support the loan growth momentum.
Promoters 16.2 16.2 16.2 We value DCB Bank at (2.2x P/B and 10.4x EPS at FY19) Rs 205 and
DII 14.9 15.3 15.9 maintain BUY.
FII 23.6 22.2 20.0
Others 45.3 46.3 47.9 Financials/Valuation FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E
NII 508 620 797 1,033 1,212
DCB is trading at its higher range of PPP 277 349 418 536 672
P/B PAT 191 195 200 253 321
3.00 NIM % 3.7 3.7 3.9 4.2 4.0
2.50 EPS (Rs) 6.8 6.8 7.0 8.2 10.4
2.00 EPS growth (%) 12% 1% 2% 17% 27%
1.50 ROE (%) 13.9% 11.5% 10.7% 11.2% 11.8%
1.00 ROA (%) 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 1.0% 1.1%
0.50 BV 56 63 68 84 93
- P/B (X) 2.0 1.3 2.5 2.1 1.9
4QFY09
2QFY10
4QFY10
2QFY11
4QFY11
2QFY12
4QFY12
2QFY13
4QFY13
2QFY14
4QFY14
2QFY15
4QFY15
2QFY16
4QFY16
2QFY17
4QFY17

P/E (x) 16.4 11.6 24.3 21.7 17.1

Stock Performance % Recent Development : Key Highlights of Result Update


1Mn 1Yr YTD PAT declined by 24% led by tax payment @ 35% against nil tax payment
Absolute 8.3 112.9 62.0 YoY. Thus, PBT grew by 17% YoY to Rs 81 Cr.
Rel.to Nifty 8.6 96.9 50.6 Operating profit remained healthy at 19% growth YoY led by robust net
200
interest income growth of 31% YoY.
DCBbank NIFTY
180 C/I ratio remain elevated at 59.4% due to aggressive branch expansion
160
strategy.
140 NIM expanded by 12 bps YoY led by decline in cost of funds.
120 Loan growth remained healthy with 22.4% YoY growth. CASA ratio declined
100
QoQ led by withdrawal of cash limit in banks by RBI. Assets quality stabilizes
and remained healthy.
80

Tier 1 ratio at 11.9%, management plans to raise Rs 400 Cr through QIP in


FY18.
DEEPAK KUMAR
Deepak.kumar@narnolia.com
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report
Narnolia Securities Ltd
Quarterly Performance
Financials 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 YoY % QoQ% FY16 FY17 YoY %
Interest Inc. 448 471 506 550 549 23% 0% 1,698 2,076 22%
Interest Exp. 279 294 316 341 329 18% -4% 1,079 1,279 19%
NII 169 177 190 209 220 31% 5% 620 797 29%
Other Income 61 60 62 64 64 3% -1% 220 249 13%

Adjusted for tax Total Income 230 237 252 274 284 23% 4% 840 1,047 25%
in 4Q FY16, PAT Ope Exp. 133 144 151 164 169 27% 3% 491 628 28%
would have PPP 97 93 101 109 115 19% 6% 349 418 20%
grown by 14% Provisions 27 21 26 31 34 25% 11% 88 111 27%
YoY in 4Q FY17. PBT 70 72 74 79 81 17% 3% 261 307 17%
Tax 0 25 26 27 29 N/A 4% 67 107 61%
Net Profit 70 47 48 51 53 -24% 3% 195 200 3%

Operating Profit Remained Healthy. Higher Cost dented the profitability


Net interest income grew by healthy rate of 30.6% YoY led by strong loan growth and NIM expansion.
Other income growth was tepid to 3.5% due to lower fee income.
Operating expenses grew by 26.6% YoY led by aggressive branch expansion mode. This led the C/I
ratio 59.4% against 57.8% a year back.
Hence operating profit grew by 18.9% YoY mainly impacted by higher operating expenses and lower
treasury gain.
Provisions grew by 24.5% YoY.
PAT declined by 24% YoY led by taxes paid @ of 35% in current quarter, as DCB paid nil tax in
corresponding quarter of previous year due to accumulated tax benefits. If we adjust tax in 4Q FY16
then, then PAT would have grown by 14% YoY in 4Q FY17.

Aggressive Expansion mode led to higher C/I ratio


Cost to income ratio increased to 59.4% against 57.8% a year back mainly due to branch expansion
strategy.
Employee expenses grew by 24% and other expenses grew by 29% YoY. DCB opened 12 new
branches in 4Q FY17.
Total branches are 262 as on FY17 which management intends to reach 300 branches till 3Q FY18 as
C/I Ratio will per earlier guidance. Afterwards management will slow the pace of opening new branches which will
remain elevated lead to decline in C/I ratio.
in FY18 due to
expansion
PL Ratio Analysis 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 YoY(+/-) QoQ(+/-) FY16 FY17 YoY(+/-)
strategy.
C/I Ratio % 57.8 60.9 60.0 60.1 59.4 1.52 -0.70 61.5 62.8 1.23
Empl. Cost/ Tot. Exp. % 49.3 50.3 49.5 48.1 48.4 -0.93 0.31 49.9 49.1 -0.87
Other Exp/Tot. Exp. % 50.7 49.7 50.5 51.9 51.6 0.93 -0.31 50.1 50.9 0.87
Provision/PPP % 28.1 22.2 26.2 27.9 29.4 1.33 1.47 25.2 26.7 1.47
Tax Rate % 0.3 34.9 34.8 34.8 35.1 34.74 0.24 25.5 34.9 9.39
Int Exp./Int Inc. (%) 62.4 62.4 62.4 61.9 59.9 -2.47 -2.04 63.5 61.6 -1.92
Other Inc./Net Inc. % 22.7 26.7 25.4 24.5 23.4 0.70 -1.03 26.2 23.8 -2.41
PAT/ Net Income % 30.2 19.8 19.2 18.8 18.6 -11.59 -0.13 23.2 19.1 -4.08

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report


Narnolia Securities Ltd
Margins expanded benefitted from declining cost of funds, sees limited scope of
improvement going forward.
Calculated NIM for 4Q FY17 improved to 4.22% against 4.09% a year back. Yield on earning assets
declined by 43 bps YoY to 10.57%. Cost of fund declined by 50 bps YoY to 6.57%.

NIM has Picked.


Sees limited Margin Performance
Margin % 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 YoY(+/-) QoQ(+/-) FY16 FY17 YoY(+/-)
scope to expand.
Avg Yield on Advances 12.5 12.5 12.3 12.3 11.9 -0.66 -0.47 11.6 11.5 -0.11
Avg Yield on Er. Assets 11.0 10.9 11.0 10.9 10.6 -0.43 -0.36 10.3 10.3 -0.02
Avg Cost of Funds 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.2 6.6 -0.50 -0.59 6.9 6.7 -0.23
Avg NIM (calculated) 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.2 0.12 -0.02 3.7 3.9 0.19

Avg. Yield on Advances Avg. Cost of Funds Avg. NIM (calculated)


4.2 4.2
4.1
4.1 4.1
4.1

3.9 4.0

3.9
12.9

12.5

12.7

12.5

12.5

12.3

11.9
13.1

12.3
7.9

7.5

7.2

7.1

7.2

7.2

6.6
7.3
7.7

Focus on
Priority Sector Fee Income Growth will remain moderate in near to mid-term.
lending gives an Other Income growth remained muted to 3.5% YoY mainly due to lower fee income growth of 9% YoY.
opportunity to Treasury income was flat YoY at Rs 4 Cr.
generate fees
We expect fee income growth to remain muted in near term as most of the branches are newly
from PLCs. opened and immature which will take much time to generate any significant fee income growth.

Other Income Break Up


4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 YoY(+/-) QoQ(+/-) FY16 FY17 YoY(+/-)
Comm./Exch/Brok. fee 40 38 42 40 45 14.4% 12.2% 141 166 17.8%
Profit on Exch Trans. 3 3 4 2 1 -67.9% -59.1% 11 10 -8.8%
Profit on Sale of Invtt. 4 17 12 13 4 2.5% -67.2% 42 45 7.6%
Miscellaneous Income 15 2 4 9 13 -11.6% 47.3% 26 28 6.8%
Total Other Income 61 60 62 64 64 3.5% -0.8% 220 249 13.1%

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report


Narnolia Securities Ltd
Fee Income/Advances % Other Income/Total Net Income %

0.36 0.34 31.0


0.33
0.32 0.31 0.32 0.29 0.29 26.3 26.7 25.4
0.29 24.5 24.5 23.4
22.7 22.4

Assets Quality
Assets Quality largely remained stable with GNPA at 1.59% against 1.55% and NNPA at 0.79% against
stabilizes
0.74% a quarter back.
Slippages declined by 6% QoQ while the slippage ratio was 51 bps against 55 bps on 3Q FY17.
GNPA at corporate book was higher at Rs 86 Cr against Rs 65 Cr in 3Q FY17. GNPA at mortgage book
was at Rs 72 Cr against Rs 67 in 3Q FY17. While it declined in SME book from Rs 37 Cr to Rs 32 Cr.
PCR including technical write offs remained strong at 74%.
4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 YoY(+/-) QoQ(+/-) FY16 FY17 YoY(+/-)
GNPA (Rs) 197 231 255 228 254 28.6% 11.4% 197 254 28.6%
GNPA % 1.51 1.72 1.75 1.55 1.59 0.08 0.04 1.5 1.6 0.08
NNPA (Rs) 98 116 121 108 124 27.6% 15.2% 98 124 27.6%
NNPA % 0.75 0.87 0.84 0.74 0.79 0.04 0.05 0.8 0.8 0.04
Slippages (Rs) 51 58 50 79 74 45.8% -6.4% 225 261 16.0%
PCR% (In. Tech Write offs) 77.6 75.3 75.4 75.6 73.8 -3.75 -1.84 77.6 73.8 -3.75
Prov/Avg Adv% (Annl.) 0.88 0.63 0.76 0.84 0.89 0.01 0.05 0.75 0.78 2.4%

GNPA Composition (Rs in Crore)


4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 YoY(+/-) QoQ(+/-) FY16 FY17 YoY(+/-)
Mortgages 46.4 62.6 74.3 66.9 71.7 54.5% 7.2% 46.4 71.7 54.5%
AIB 28.8 40.4 37.7 32.4 36.6 27.1% 13.0% 28.8 36.6 27.1%
Corporate 86.1 86.1 86.1 65.2 85.9 -0.2% 31.7% 86.1 85.9 -0.2%
SME+MSME 24.5 27.9 36.7 36.8 32.4 32.2% -12.0% 24.5 32.4 32.2%
Gold Loans 2.2 2.8 5.5 5.5 2.2 0.0% -60.0% 2.2 2.2 0.0%
CV/CE/STVL 9.2 11.1 13.4 17.6 20.0 117.4% 13.6% 9.2 20.0 117.4%

GNPA % NNPA % PCR % (Inc. Technical Write offs) Provisions/Avg. Advances % (Annualised)
3.00 90.0
74.7 75.3 75.4 75.6 73.8 0.9 0.9
71.9 72.2 72.8 80.0 0.8
77.6 0.8
2.50 0.8
70.0
0.7 0.7
60.0 0.6
2.00 0.6
50.0
1.50 40.0
30.0
1.00
1.76
1.01

1.22

1.99
1.16

1.12

1.51

1.75
0.84

1.55
0.74

1.59
0.79
1.96

1.98

0.75

1.72
0.87

20.0
0.50 10.0

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report


Narnolia Securities Ltd
Advances growth remained healthy, Demonetization helped CASA pick up
Advances grew by a healthy rate of 22.5% YoY and 8% QoQ led by strong growth in corporate book
and agri book which grew by 31% YoY and 30% YoY respectively.
Mortgage and SME book grew by 22% YoY each.
The loan growth was temporarily impacted by demonetization in 3Q FY17 which has picked up in
current quarter.
DCB bank is largely focused on mortgage finance which constitutes 43% of the total loan book.
Management does not want to grow corporate book beyond 20% of the loan book and intends to focus
on retail and low ticket size loans.

Deposits grew by 29.2% YoY led by demonetization impact. CASA grew by 34.4% YoY, however it
declined by 3.7% QoQ as per expected due to cash limit withdrawal by RBI.
Thus CASA ratio declined to 24.3% against 25.9% on 3Q FY17. CD ratio improved to 82% from 77.4%
in previous quarter.

Concall Highlights:
After FY19 C/I ratio will be below 55%.
Comfortable to grow loan book at 20%.
Competition is intensive from every finance companies.
Comfortable for NIM around 3.7%.
See PLC certificate as an opportunity to grow fee income.
15% fee income growth is possible if branches get matured.
QIP will be raised till Dec, 2017.
Not to grow corporate book beyond 20%. Focus on retail, SME and small ticket size loan.
Added personal loan product recently and expect it to be 5% of the book within a year.
After reaching 300 branches in oct or dec qtr, pace of adding new branches will decline. Only 10 to 12
branches will be added per year.
Hold Rs 40 cr of floating provisions in BS.
Total employee count is 4979.
Rs 45 Cr restructured assets outstanding in 3 accounts.

View & Valuation


With the focus on retail book, DCB Bank is well placed to grow in the range of 20%-23% in near to mid-
term. Assets Quality of DCB Bank will remain healthy due to retail centric. Net Interest income will
remain healthy but extensive branch addition will result in higher operating expenses. Due to new
branches and low focus on corporate loans fee income will remain muted but new opportunity in Fee
income from PSLCs will provide some relief. Tier 1 at 11.9% DCB has planned to raise Rs 400 Cr in
FY18. We estimate NIM in the range of 4-4.2%. Factoring equity dilution we estimate RoE of 11-
12% and RoA of 1-1.1%. We value DCB Bank at (2.2x P/B and 10.4x EPS at FY19) Rs 198 and
maintain BUY.

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report


Narnolia Securities Ltd
Advances Performance
4QFY15 1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17
Net Advances (Rs in Cr) 10465 10426 11181 11736 12921 13337 14436 14584 15818
Adv. Growth YoY % 28.6 25.7 27.2 23.7 23.5 27.9 29.1 24.3 22.4
>> Growth QoQ % 10.3 -0.4 7.2 5.0 10.1 3.2 8.2 1.0 8.5

Advances Sectoral Breakup %


4QFY15 1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17
Mortgages 43.0 45.2 45.0 45.0 43.0 44.0 43.0 44.0 43.0
AIB 15.0 15.7 15.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 18.0
Corporate Banking 23.0 20.7 20.0 17.0 15.0 15.0 16.0 16.0 16.0
SME + MSME 13.0 11.9 12.0 12.0 12.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 12.0
Gold Loans 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
Construction Finance 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 3.0
Commercial Vehicle 2.0 2.9 3.0 3.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0
Others (PL, Auto, Others) 1.0 0.6 2.0 4.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.0 2.0

Deposits Performance
4QFY15 1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17
Deposits (Rs in Cr) 12609 13269 13557 14084 14926 15680 17685 18840 19289
Growth YoY % 22.1 25.8 24.4 18.9 18.4 18.2 30.4 33.8 29.2
>> Growth QoQ % 6.4 5.2 2.2 3.9 6.0 5.0 12.8 6.5 2.4
CASA (Rs) 2950 3057 3267 3218 3490 3619 3875 4871 4689
CASA Growth YoY % 14.3 14.1 17.7 14.2 18.3 18.4 18.6 51.4 34.4
>> Growth QoQ % 4.7 3.6 6.9 -1.5 8.5 3.7 7.1 25.7 -3.7
CASA % 23.4 23.0 24.1 22.8 23.4 23.1 21.9 25.9 24.3
Credit Deposit Ratio 83.0 78.6 82.5 83.3 86.6 85.1 81.6 77.4 82.0

Other Status
4QFY15 1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17
Branches 154 157 160 176 198 205 228 248 262
ATM 328 343 373 397 410 442 490 496 515
Business (In Cr) 23074 23695 24738 25820 27847 29017 32121 33424 35107
Busi. Per Branch (Cr) 150 151 155 147 141 142 141 135 134
Business Growth % YoY 25.0 25.7 25.6 21.0 20.7 22.5 29.8 29.5 26.1

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report


Narnolia Securities Ltd
Advances Growth remained Healthy Robust Deposits Growth
Net Advances (Rs in Cr) Adv. Growth YoY % Deposits (Rs in Cr) Growth YoY %
18,000 35.0 25,000 40.0
16,000 28.6
27.2 27.9 29.1 33.8
25.7 30.0 30.4 35.0
14,000 23.7 23.5 24.3 29.2
22.4 20,000
25.0 25.8 24.4 30.0
12,000 22.1
10,000 20.0 15,000 18.9 18.4 18.2
25.0
8,000 15.0 20.0
6,000 10,000 15.0
10.0
10,426

11,181

11,736

12,921

13,337

14,436

15,818
10,465

14,584
4,000 10.0

13,269

13,557

14,084

14,926

15,680

17,685

19,289
12,609

18,840
5.0 5,000
2,000 5.0
- - - -

Advances Breakup % (FY17) Demonetization led higher CASA


4.0
2.0 5.0
2.0 CASA % CASA Growth YoY %

51.4
12.0 43.0

34.4

15.0
17.7 18.3 18.4 18.6
14.3 14.1 14.2
17.0
23.4

23.0

22.8

23.4

23.1

25.9

24.3
24.1

21.9
Mortgages AIB
Corporate Banking SME + MSME
Gold Loans Construction Finance
Commercial Vehicle Others (PL, Auto, Others)

Recent aggressive branch expansion


led to decline in Business per branch Robust Business Growth

Business Per Branch (Rs in Cr) Business Growth % YoY


155 29.84 29.45
150 151
24.96 25.75 25.62 26.07
147
22.46
20.99 20.69
141 142 141

135 134

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report


Narnolia Securities Ltd
Financials Snap Shot
Balance Sheet Rs in Crores Key Ratios & Assumptions
Y/E March FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E Y/E March FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E
Share Capital 284 285 308 308 Balance Sheet Metrics
>> Equity Capital 284 285 308 308 Loan Growth (%) 23.5 22.4 22.5 20.0
>> Preference Capital - - - - Deposit Growth (%) 18.4 29.2 18.9 20.7
Reserves & Surplus 1,508 1,920 2,520 2,811 C/D Ratio (%) 86.6 82.0 84.5 84.0
Networth 1,792 1,946 2,569 2,859 CASA (%) 23.4 24.3 24.3 24.3
Deposits 14,926 19,289 22,937 27,688 Investment/Deposit (%) 29.0 30.2 30.2 30.2
Change (%) 18.4 29.2 18.9 20.7 CRAR (%) 14.1 13.8 15.7 14.3
>> CASA Deposits 12,836 15,694 19,221 23,050 >> Tier 1 (%) 12.8 11.9 14.8 13.6
Change (%) 18.3 22.3 22.5 19.9 >> Tier 2 (%) 1.3 1.9 0.8 0.7
Borrowings 1,148 1,276 1,626 1,954 Assets Quality Metrics
Other Liabilities & Provisions 1,252 1,276 1,637 1,976 Gross NPA 197 254 319 399
Total Liabilities 19,119 24,046 29,027 34,737 Gross NAP (%) 1.51 1.59 1.63 1.70
Cash & Bank 892 1,192 1,334 1,532 Net NPA 98 124 146 179
Investments 4,333 5,818 6,918 8,351 Net NPA (%) 0.75 0.79 0.75 0.77
Change (%) 9.4 34.3 18.9 20.7 Slippges (%) 2.17 2.04 2.16 2.16
Advances 12,921 15,818 19,382 23,258 Spec.Provision Coverage (%) 50.6 51.0 54.3 55.1
Change (%) 23.5 22.4 22.5 20.0 Provision/Avg Advances (%) 0.75 0.78 0.87 0.87
Fixed Assets 248 489 513 539 Margin Metrics
Other Assets 724 730 881 1,057 Yield On Advances (%) 11.6 11.5 11.0 10.7
Total Assets 19,119 24,046 29,027 34,737 Yield On Investment (%) 7.4 7.8 7.7 7.6
Yield on Earning Assets (%) 10.3 10.3 9.9 9.7
Income Statement in Rs Crores Cost Of Deposits (%) 7.3 7.1 6.3 6.2
Y/E March FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E Cost Of Funds (%) 6.9 6.7 6.0 6.0
Interest income 1,698 2,076 2,458 2,899 Spread (%) 3.4 3.6 3.8 3.7
Interest expended 1,079 1,279 1,425 1,687 NIM (%) 3.7 3.9 4.2 4.0
Net Interest Income 620 797 1,033 1,212 Profitability & Effeciency Metrics
Change (%) 21.9 28.7 29.6 17.3 Int. Expense/Int.Income (%) 63.5 61.6 58.0 58.2
Other Income 220 249 282 342 Fee Income/NII (%) 24.5 22.1 20.4 21.2
Change (%) 33 13.1 12.9 21.4 Cost to Income (%) 61.5 62.8 60.9 58.3
>> Core Fee Income 152 176 211 256 Cost on Average Assets (%) 3.0 3.1 3.1 2.9
>> Treasury Income 42 45 36 43 Tax Rate (%) 25.5 34.9 34.0 34.0
>> Others 26 28 35 43 Valuation Ratio Metrics
Total Net Income 840 1,047 1,315 1,554 EPS (Rs) 6.8 7.0 8.2 10.4
Operating Expenses 491 628 779 882 Change (%) 1.0 2.3 17.4 26.9
Change (%) 23.82 28.0 24.0 13.1 ROAE (%) 11.5 10.7 11.2 11.8
>> Employee Expenses 245 308 377 431 ROAA (%) 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.1
Pre-provisioning Profit 349 418 536 672 Dividend Payout (%) - 8.6 8.8 8.6
Change (%) 25.8 19.8 28.1 25.5 Dividend Per share (Rs) - 0.5 0.6 0.8
Provisions 88 111 153 186 Book Value (Rs) 63 68 84 93
Change (%) 26.56 26.8 37.0 22.0 Change (%) 11.9 8.2 22.5 11.3
PBT 261 307 383 486 P/B (X) 1.26 2.50 2.13 1.91
Tax 67 107 130 165 P/E (X) 11.59 24.33 21.67 17.08
Profit After Tax 195 200 253 321
Change (%) 1.75 2.7 26.5 26.9

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report


Narnolia Securities Ltd
BOOK PROFIT
JYOTHY LABORATORIES LTD 18th April. 2017

Company Update JYOTHYLABs result for Q3FY17 was better than our expectations
CMP 399 considering tough demand environment. Overall volume for this quarter
grew by 3.6% YoY led by proactive measure of the management like
Target Price 410
switching production plans to maximize small skus production, helping
Previous Target Price NA reduce payment burden on retailers etc. Going forward, management is
Upside 3% confident of demand revival as demonetization effect will ease of. As far as
Change from Previous NA margin is concern, the company is looking to increase prices by 5-7%
going ahead which gives us confidence that company may protect margin
going forwards. Implementation of GST may be game changer for
Market Data Organized FMCG players. It may boost market share of the company in
BSE Code 532926 times to come. Lastly, JYOTHYLAB gets large chunk of its revenue from
NSE Symbol JYOTHYLAB South market and South market conditions are improving rapidly which is
52wk Range H/L 427/270 positive for this company. We initiated `BUY on JYOTHYLAB on 27th
Jan2017 at Rs356 with a target price of Rs 410. As company has
Mkt Capital (Rs Cr) 7,256
achieved our target and considering GST related hiccups going
Av. Volume(,000) 172 forward, we recommend to `BOOK PROFIT for now.
Nifty 9,139 Q3FY17_Result Update

Stock Performance JYOTHYLABs sales for this quarter grew by 3% YoY to Rs400 cr led by
1M 3M 12M 3.6% YoY volume improvement. EBITDA declined by 1.3% led by inflation
in key input prices. Gross margin for this quarter, declined by 293 bps YoY
Absolute 9.0 17.0 31.0
led by increase in major raw material prices. In spite of sharp increase in
Rel.to Nifty 9.0 8.0 12.0 input prices, the company managed other cost items efficiently and
controlled EBITDA margin decline to 55 bps YoY which is commendable.
Share Holding Pattern-% PAT margin improved by 18 bps YoY to 5.4% in Q3FY17. PAT grew by7%
3QFY17 2QFY17 1QFY17 YoY to Rs 22 cr.
Promoters 66.9 66.9 66.9 Concall Highlights:
Public 33.1 33.1 33.2 The company will take Selective price increase (price increase as well as
Others -- -- -- reduction of promotion) in Q4FY17 to achieve desired gross margin levels.
Going forward, the company is looking for 5-7% price hike.
Total 100 100 100
In the month of Jan till date company is witnessing double digit growth.
Expected Tax Rate: Q4FY17: 21%, FY18:21% (MAT credit)
Company Vs NIFTY Approx. 75% of the business in South is back to normal.
140
North and East are still struggling.
JYOTHYLAB NIFTY
From 4QFY17 on wards ad expenses will be back to the normal.
130 Next year ad and promotion expenses will be in the range of 15% of the
120 sales.
Margin will back to the normal going forward.
110
Rs,Cr
100 Financials 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E
90 Sales 1515 1647 1758 1958 2161
80 EBITDA 163 220 261 270 288
Net Profit 121 158 133 147 161
EPS 7 9 7 8 9
Rajeev Anand ROE 16% 19% 15% 16% 18%
rajeev.anand@narnolia.com
Narnolia Securities Ltd 29
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report
Overall volume growth(%)
16%
Overall volume growth(%) 14%
14%

12%
10% 10%
10% 9% 9% 9%
8%
8%
6%
6%
4%
4%

2%

0%
3QFY15 4QFY15 1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17

Net Sales and PAT(in cr.)


500 46 50
Sales PAT
450 45
39
400 36 40
350 32 35
300 26 27 26 30
250 22 25
20
200 20
150 15
100 10
50 5
361 401 404 407 385 445 440 434 400
0 0
3QFY15 4QFY15 1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17

EBITDA and NPM (%)


20.0%
18.0%
EBITDA % NPM%
18.0%
16.0% 14.4% 14.7%
14.1%
13.2%
14.0% 12.2% 12.7%
12.0% 10.3% 10.1% 10.4%
10.1%
10.0%
8.0%
7.3% 7.4%
8.0% 6.7% 6.4%
4.9% 5.4%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
3QFY15 4QFY15 1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17

Narnolia Securities Ltd 30

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report


Financials Snap Shot
INCOME STATEMENT RATIOS
FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E
Revenue 1647 1758 1958 2161 EPS 8.7 7.4 8.1 8.9
Other Income 15 11 11 11 Book Value 46.7 48.1 49.6 50.7
Total Revenue 1661 1769 1969 2172 DPS 4.8 6.0 6.6 7.8
COGS 799 883 990 1102 Payout (incl. Div. Tax.) 55% 82% 81% 88%
GPM 51.5% 49.8% 49.5% 49.0% Valuation(x)
Other Expenses 461 431 487 537 P/E 36 48 44 40
EBITDA 220 261 270 288 Price / Book Value 6.7 7.4 7.1 7.0
EBITDA Margin (%) 13.4% 14.8% 13.8% 13.3% Dividend Yield (%) 1.5% 1.7% 1.9% 2.2%
Depreciation 31 30 33 33 Profitability Ratios
EBIT 189 231 237 256 RoE 18.7% 15.3% 16.3% 17.5%
Interest 6 61 58 58 RoCE 22.1% 26.3% 26.2% 27.6%
PBT 197 181 190 209 Turnover Ratios
Tax 39 48 44 48 Asset Turnover (x) 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1
Tax Rate (%) 19.9% 26.6% 23.0% 23.0% Debtors (No. of Days) 21 24 23 22
Reported PAT 158 133 147 161 Inventory (No. of Days) 83 85 83 82
Dividend Paid 87 109 119 141 Creditors (No. of Days) 36 39 36 36
No. of Shares 18 18 18 18 Net Debt/Equity (x) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

BALANCE SHEET CASH FLOW STATEMENT


FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E
Share Capital 18 18 18 18 OP/(Loss) before Tax 197 181 190 209
Reserves 828 853 880 899 Depreciation 31 30 33 33
Net Worth 846 871 898 917 Direct Taxes Paid -52 -48 -44 -48
Long term Debt 7 7 7 7 Oper. Prof. bef. WC chang. 240 272 281 299
Short term Debt 0 45 30 15 CF from Op. Activity 191 174 223 257
Deferred Tax 25 25 25 25 Non Current investments 0 0 0 0
Capital Employed 853 878 905 925 Capital expenditure -27 -50 0 0
Net Fixed Assets 1076 1096 1063 1030 CF from Inv. Activity 0 -49 0 0
Capital WIP 6 6 6 6 Repaym. of LT Borrowings 0 0 0 0
Debtors 94 116 123 130 Interest Paid -10 -61 -58 -58
Cash & Bank Balances 61 61 90 131 Divd Paid (incl Tax) -174 -109 -119 -141
Trade payables 161 188 193 213 CF from Fin. Activity -302 -125 -194 -216
Total Provisions 75 80 82 87 Inc/(Dec) in Cash -111 0 29 41
Net Current Assets -411 -341 -294 -252 Add: Opening Balance 218 61 61 90
Total Assets 1767 1817 1843 1882 Closing Balance 107 61 90 131

Narnolia Securities Ltd 31

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report


HOLD
Bajajcorp 18th April. 2017

Company Update Q4FY17 Result Update:


CMP 402 BAJAJCORPs Q3FY17 result is largely in line to our estimates. The
Target Price 455 company reported Sales of Rs 205 cr, declined by 2% YoY(Vs our estimate
Rs204 cr) led by 7% volume growth QoQ and 2%QoQ realization
Previous Target Price 490
growth.PAT for this quarter remained Rs 53 cr, decline by 3% YoY(Vs our
Upside 13% estimates Rs 51 cr).
Change from Previous -7% Gross Margin expansion: Positive surprise came from expansion of
gross margin in Q4FY17. Gross margin expanded by 287 bps YoYto 67.3%
from 64.4%. LLP prices remained flat in this quarter whereas refined oil
Market Data
declined by 5% YoY.
BSE Code 533229
NSE Symbol BAJAJCORP EBITDA margin declined: EBITDA margin declined by 381 bps YoY to
52wk Range H/L 436/340 32.4% led by higher employee cost and other expenses. Employee cost
Mkt Capital (Rs Cr) increased by 167 bps YoY led by hiring of competent people for different
5,929
functional area. Other expense for this quarter increased by 456 bps YoY
Av. Volume(,000) 126 to 20.5% led by higher direct distribution expenses. Ad and promotion
Nifty 9,139 expenses have shown increment of 45 bps to 6.9%.
Decline in volume: The overall volume declined by 6.95% YoY led by
Stock Performance 7%YoY decline in the volume of BAJAJ Almond Oil(BAO). However,
1M 3M 12M companys Overall volume improved after demonetization if we compare
QoQ. It went up by 7.33% QoQ led by better volume growth 5.7% QoQ in
Absolute 9.8 2.3 -2.9 BAO. Nomarks volume also improved by 18% QoQ; after four quarters of
Rel.to Nifty 10.0 -6.3 -21.5 continuous decline. Overall realization in Q4FY17 improved by 2% QoQ on
the back of better realization from Almond Drops Hair Oil, Kailash Parvat
Cooling Oil and Nomarks.
Share Holding Pattern-%
4QFY17 3QFY17 2QFY17 Higher provisioning of Tax Rate: Provisioning for Tax has increased by
Promoters 66.9 66.9 66.9 301 bps to 21.3% from 18.2% in Q4FY16.
Public 33.1 33.1 33.1 View and Valuation
Others - - - The companys Q4FY17 result is largely in line to our estimates. Volume
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 growth remained subdued in this quarter but improved after demonetization
QoQ. Based on managements recent commentary, we see pressure in
volume of BAJAJ Almond Hair Oil for next 2-3 quarters considering
Company Vs NIFTY destocking led by confusion regarding GST. Earlier we were expecting
125 BAJAJCORP NIFTY EPS for BAJAJCORP in FY18E and FY19E, Rs 15 and Rs 16 respectively.
120 But after recent managements commentary we have changed over
115 estimates of EPS for FY18E and FY19E by 5% and 8% downward
110 respectively. Based on change in our EPS estimates we have changed our
105 rating on this stock from `BUY to `HOLD and accordingly we have lowered
100 our target price from Rs 490 to Rs 455.
95 Rs,Cr
90 Financials FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E
85 Sales 826 876 797 803 856
80
EBITDA 239 274 264 242 252
Net Profit 173 196 218 209 218
EPS 12 13 15 14 15
Rajeev Anand ROE 35% 41% 44% 41% 42%
rajeev.anand@narnolia.com
Narnolia Securities Ltd 32
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report
BAJAJCORP

Almond Drop Hair Oil (ADHO) Volume gr % YoY: Quarterly Sales and PAT(in cr)

ADHO (Volume gr%YOY) Sales (in cr) PAT(in cr)


8% 250
6%
6% 208 209 204 205
196 197
200 187
4%
2.20%
1.60%
2% 1% 150

0%
100
2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 58 58
-2% 49 54 52 53
47
-4.30% -4.20% 50
-4%

-6% -7.08% 0
2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17
-8%

Q4FY17 Result Concall Highlights

Demand environment is still subdued.


Revival of hair oil market witnessed more on urban than rural. Rural market will yet to pick up.
Witnessed Improvement in market share of BAJAJ Almond Hair Oil. Market share as on Feb17 was 61.3% in value term.
Strain in primary sales volume is due to destocking in the whole sale level as well as in rural market and it will continue in
Q1FY18.
Total overall Distribution of Bajaj Almond Hair is 37.19 lakh outlets. The company is targeting to expand direct reach at least
20% of overall distribution at the first half of the financial year.
50Ml,100ML and200ML is under 50% of sales and still in glass bottles and company was working on making glass cheaper for
one and half year which will be implemented in this year. .
NOMARKS: already started expanding in different markets and it will expand to 4 sates till May-June of this year.
New facility in Guwahati has started functioning and will strengthen distribution of its flagship brand in eastern market.
BAJAJCORP's 47% of sales comes from Wholesales and it will drop to sub 40% in one and half year.
The company is planning to improve market share of BAJAJ Almond Oil in West Bengal and Rajasthan.
Current indirect tax : 18.9%.
Modern trade grew by 24% in this quarter.
Other expenses: Went up due to expenses related to direct distribution.
About The Company

BAJAJ CORP is engaged in the business activity of trading and manufacturing of cosmetics, toiletries and other personal care
products. It is a fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) company. The Company's products include Bajaj Kailash Parbat Thanda
Tel, Bajaj Almond Drops Hair Oil, Bajaj Brahmi Amla Hair Oil, Bajaj Jasmine Hair Oil, Bajaj Nomark Oily Skin Face Wash, Bajaj
Nomarks Herbal Scrub Soap, Bajaj Nomark Oily Skin Cream, Bajaj Nomarks Neem Soap, Bajaj Nomarks Oil Control Soap and
others. The Company has approximately nine Factory, of which four units are situated in Himachal Pradesh , three units are
situated in Uttrakhand for manufacturing of various variants of hair oils and Nomarks and other unit is situated in Guwahati and
one unit Bangladesh.The company reaches consumers through 3.6mn retail outlets serviced by 7707 distributors and 11500
wholesalers.

Narnolia Securities Ltd 33

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report


BAJAJCORP

Financials Snap Shot


INCOME STATEMENT RATIOS
FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E
Revenue 876 797 803 856 EPS 13.3 14.8 14.2 14.8
Other Income 29 39 33 34 Book Value 32.6 33.5 34.5 35.5
Total Revenue 905 836 836 890 DPS 13.8 13.8 13.2 13.8
COGS 298 269 281 306 Payout (incl. Div. Tax.) 104% 93% 93% 93%
GPM 66.0% 66.2% 65.0% 64.3% Valuation(x)
Other Expenses 257 203 220 235 P/E 29 27 29 27
EBITDA 274 264 242 252 Price / Book Value 11.8 12.1 11.7 11.4
EBITDA Margin (%) 31% 33% 30% 29% Dividend Yield (%) 3.0% 2.8% 2.7% 2.8%
Depreciation 5 5 6 6 Profitability Ratios
EBIT 269 258 236 246 RoE 41% 44% 41% 42%
Interest 0 1 1 1 RoCE 56% 52% 46% 47%
PBT 297 297 268 279 Turnover Ratios
Tax 54 60 59 61 Asset Turnover (x) 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4
Tax Rate (%) 18% 20% 22% 22% Debtors (No. of Days) 11 12 11 11
Reported PAT 196 218 209 218 Inventory (No. of Days) 61 22 21 21
Dividend Paid 204 204 195 203 Creditors (No. of Days) 18 18 18 18
No. of Shares 15 15 15 15 Net Debt/Equity (x) 0 0 0 0

BALANCE SHEET CASH FLOW STATEMENT


FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E
Share Capital 15 15 15 15 OP/(Loss) before Tax 297 278 268 279
Reserves 466 479 495 509 Depreciation 5 5 6 6
Net Worth 481 494 510 524 Direct Taxes Paid -53 -60 -59 -61
Long term Debt 0 0 0 0 Oper. Prof. bef. WC chang. 274 285 275 286
Short term Debt 10 15 15 15 CF from Op. Activity 193 226 227 224
Deferred Tax 1 1 1 1 Capital expenditure -17 -46 21 -7
Capital Employed 481 494 510 524 CF from Inv. Activity 6 -95 40 -37
Net Fixed Assets 97 119 91 92 Divd Paid (incl Tax) -204 -204 -195 -203
Capital WIP 1 0 0 0 CF from Fin. Activity -194 -200 -196 -204
Debtors 25 27 23 25 Inc/(Dec) in Cash 5 -69 70 -17
Cash & Bank Balances 58 12 52 37 Add: Opening Balance 4 58 12 52
Trade payables 44 40 40 43 Closing Balance 9 -11 83 37
Total Provisions 0 0 0 0
Net Current Assets 340 346 383 399
Total Assets 566 590 587 608

Narnolia Securities Ltd 34

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report


N arnolia Securities Ltd
201 | 2nd Floor | Marble Arch Build ing | 236B-AJC Bose
Road | Kolkata-700 020 , Ph : 033-40501500
em ail: narnolia@narnolia.com ,
w ebsite : w w w .narnolia.com

Risk Disclosure & Disclaimer: This report/message is for the personal information of
the authorized recipient and does not construe to be any investment, legal or taxation
advice to you. Narnolia Securities Ltd. (Hereinafter referred as NSL) is not soliciting any
action based upon it. This report/message is not for public distribution and has been
furnished to you solely for your information and should not be reproduced or
redistributed to any other person in any from. The report/message is based upon publicly
available information, findings of our research wing East wind & information that we
consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and we do not
provide any express or implied warranty of any kind, and also these are subject to change
without notice. The recipients of this report should rely on their own investigations,
should use their own judgment for taking any investment decisions keeping in mind that
past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance & that the the value of
any investment or income are subject to market and other risks. Further it will be safe to
assume that NSL and /or its Group or associate Companies, their Directors, affiliates
and/or employees may have interests/ positions, financial or otherwise, individually or
otherwise in the recommended/mentioned securities/mutual funds/ model funds and
other investment products which may be added or disposed including & other mentioned
in this report/message.

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