IEA Report 24th April 2017
IEA Report 24th April 2017
IEA Report 24th April 2017
Company Update Recently company has received 11 observations from the US FDA for its
CMP 638 Dadra unit. In the inspection US FDA stated that company fails to produce
appropriate master or control record for each batch of drugs and failure to
Target Price 795
properly investigate batches that don't meet specifications. Dadra unit is
Previous Target Price the second largest manufacturing facility of the company, supplying drugs
Upside 25% to US market. Another unit of company at Halol is already under US import
Change from Previous alert which contributes about 40% of revenue from the US market. Earlier
in the month of March, US FDA indicated that it will lift import ban from its
Mohali unit. Lift of ban will clear the path for Sun Pharma to supply
Market Data approved products from the Mohali facility to the US market.
BSE Code 524715
News Update
NSE Symbol SUNPHARMA
52wk Range H/L 854/571 Sun Pharma opens first production unit in Egypt, total investment of USD
Mkt Capital (Rs Cr) 153562 12.5 million was inaugurated on 21 feb 2017, signalling growing bussines
ties between India and the key Middle East nation.
Av. Volume(,000) 459
Nifty 9,119 On 17 Feb 2017, Sun Pharma gets European Medicines Agency nod for
Tobramycin.
Stock Performance Sun Pharma recalls 2.7 lakh bottles of antidepressant in US.The tablets
1M 3M 12M have been manufactured by Sun Pharma at its Halol plant in India.
Absolute -9.1 -23.1 -23.7 Sun Pharma recalls anti-depressant drug Bupropion Hydrochloride.The
Rel.to Nifty -9.4 -38.4 -30.4 recall is classified as class-III, which means the products are unlikely to
cause any adverse health reactions, but violate FDA labelling or
manufacturing rules.
Share Holding Pattern-% Sun Pharma to sell Ohm Labs site at New Jersey
3QFY17 2QFY17 1QFY17
Promoters 54.4 55.0 55.0 Outlook
Public 45.6 45.0 45.0 US FDA import alert on Dadra unit may dwindle the companys revenue
from the US business. In the meanwhile the Synergies from the Ranbaxy
Others 0.0 0.00 0.00
acquisitions are gaining momentum and the company is on track to
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0
achieve the targeted benefits. Company has strengthened the branded
Company Vs NIFTY ophthalmic pipeline further through acquisition of Ocular Technologies. The
125 SUNPHARMA NIFTY management has maintained its guidance of 8-10% sales growth for
120 FY17E, we are optimistic for healthy growth in the long-term. Considering
115 above arguments we recommend HOLD rating on this stock while
110 maintaining our previous recommended target price of Rs. 795. We are
105 analysing the financial viewpoint of Mohali and Dadra plant and will update
100
as more clarity will emerge.
Rs,Cr
95
Financials 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
90
85 Sales 8019 11300 16080 27433 27219
80 EBITDA 3204 4896 7002 8064 7431
Jul-16
Sep-16
Feb-17
Jan-17
Dec-16
Jun-16
Aug-16
May-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Apr-16
Apr-17
Mar-17
Latest Events
16 Dec 2016- The necessary formalities for closure of acquisition transaction have been concluded and we have successfully
completed the acquisition of Ocular Technologies.
12 dec 2016- Sun Pharma, Moebius Medical ink pact to develop pain management product.Moebius Medical will conduct
requisite pre-clinical studies and will assume responsibility for product development and manufacturing through the end of Phase-
II studies, as per the pact
7 Dec 2016- Company has undergone an inspection by USFDA recently and post that the health regulator issued a Form-483
observation letter For Halol Plant. The company is in the process of responding to the letter.
Financial Performance
1843
2180
2165
2520
1768
1873
1242
1175
1275
1275
2001
1801
1733
1850
1934
2169
2246
500
892
5%
0% 0
Oct-16
Nov-16
Jul-16
Apr-16
Apr-17
Sep-16
Feb-17
Mar-17
Jan-17
Aug-16
May-16
NIM increased by 20 bps YoY to 3.6% mainly due to decline of 70 bps in cost of fund. Yield on
advances declined by 50 bps YoY. Decline in cost was due to spike in CASA ratio.
Profitability Metrix % 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 YoY(+/-) QoQ(+/-) FY16 FY17 YoY(+/-)
C/I Ratio 40.1 41.1 40.6 42.0 41.6 1.58 -0.35 42.4 42.6 0.18
Empl. Cost/ Tot. Exp. % 43.1 44.7 45.7 44.4 41.2 -1.90 -3.24 43.6 43.8 0.28
Other Exp/Tot. Exp. % 56.9 55.3 54.3 55.6 58.8 1.90 3.24 56.4 56.2 -0.28
Provision/PPP % 15.2 15.8 11.7 7.9 18.3 3.10 10.38 12.5 13.6 1.13
Tax Rate % 32.4 33.5 34.5 34.1 33.8 1.39 -0.24 32.6 34.0 1.41
Int Exp./Int Inc. (%) 64.8 65.9 64.7 64.4 62.3 -2.52 -2.08 66.3 64.7 -1.55
Other Inc./Net Inc. % 39.3 40.6 38.0 39.8 43.4 4.13 3.56 37.3 41.8 4.50
PAT/ Net Income % 34.3 33.0 34.3 35.2 31.6 -2.79 -3.67 34.9 33.5 -1.43
RoE 21.1 20.7 21.4 22.3 21.8 0.70 -0.50 19.9 18.6 -1.36
NIM expanded
due to RoA 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 0.00 0.00 1.8 1.9 0.06
declining cost
of deposits
Margin Performance
Margin % 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 YoY(+/-) QoQ(+/-) FY16 FY17 YoY(+/-)
Yield On Advances 11.2 11.1 10.9 10.9 10.7 -0.50 -0.20 11.2 10.6 -0.58
Avg Yield on Earning 10.3 10.5 10.2 10.0 9.6 -0.65 -0.34 9.6 9.2 -0.41
Assets
Cost of Fund 7.0 7.0 6.8 6.6 6.3 -0.70 -0.30 6.8 6.5 -0.33
NIM 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.6 0.20 0.10 3.2 3.2 0.00
3.6
3.5
3.3 3.3
3.2
10.9
10.6
10.1
10.3
10.5
10.0
11.0
10.2
7.8
7.6
7.1
7.0
7.0
6.8
9.6
6.3
7.3
6.6
Assets Quality Deterioration spiked as per RBI directive.
Asset quality of Yes Bank deteriorated significantly in 4Q FY17 with GNPA almost doubled in absolute
term QoQ to Rs 2019 Cr.
Rs 912 Cr In terms of ratio GNPA increased to 1.52% against 0.85% sequentially where as NNPA increased to
slippage was 0.81% against 0.29% on sequential basis.
from one
cement Spike in GNPA was due to slip of one account in Cement sector. However this slippage was as per the
company but RBI directive and management is hopeful to recover this account in June quarter. The exposure of Yes
management bank in this account is Rs 911 Cr which is 69 bps of its gross advances.
expect it to Recently RBI also asked banks to increase the standard assets provisioning on telecom sector as pro-
recover in 1Q active measures which raised concerns on trouble of telecom companies in India. Exposure of Yes
FY18. bank in telecom sector is 4.9% out of which 4.2% is A or above rated.
Restructured advances declined to 36 bps from 42 bps sequentially. There was no restructuring in 4Q
FY17.
During the quarter the bank sold Rs 887 Cr of assets. Management said that against these assets,
collateral /security cover is adequate and expected to be realizable.
Standard SDR Advances outstanding at 0.22% to Gross Advances from five accounts of which three
accounts (equivalent to 0.08% of Gross Advances) were restructured during Q4FY17. Total
outstanding Investments in SDR stand at 0.02% of Advances as on 4Q FY17.
Assets Quality 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 YoY(+/-) QoQ(+/-) FY16 FY17 YoY(+/-)
GNPA (Rs) 749 845 917 1,006 2,019 169.5% 100.7% 749 2,019 169.5%
GNPA % 0.76 0.79 0.83 0.85 1.52 0.76 0.67 0.76 1.52 0.76
NNPA (Rs) 284 302 323 342 1,072 276.9% 213.1% 284 1,072 276.9%
NNPA % 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.81 0.52 0.52 0.29 0.81 0.52
Slippages (Rs) 402 300 302 127 1,905 374.0% 1406% 911 2,632 188.9%
Std. Restructured Assets 524 523 512 500 482 -8.1% -3.7% 524 482 -8.1%
(Rs)
Std. Restructured Assets 0.53 0.49 0.46 0.42 0.36 -0.17 -0.06 0.53 0.36 -0.17
%
Total Stress Assets (Rs) 1,273 1,368 1,428 1,506 2,500 96.4% 66.0% 1,273 2,500 96.4%
Specific PCR % 62.0 64.2 64.8 66.0 46.9 -15.14 -19.08 62.0 46.9 -15.14
Prov/Avg Adv% 0.20 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.25 0.04 0.15 0.62 0.69 0.07
80 0.30
0.25
70
0.25
0.20 0.20
60
0.18 0.18
0.20
50 0.15
0.13 0.13
1.52
40 0.15
0.10
30
0.10
0.85
0.83
0.79
0.76 20
0.66
0.61
0.46
0.41
0.05
0.12
0.51
0.13
0.71
0.71
0.22
0.29
0.53
0.29
0.49
0.29
0.46
0.29
0.42
0.20
0.67
0.81
0.36
10
72 71 68 66 62 64 65 66 47
- -
Other Income Break Up 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 YoY % QoQ% FY16 FY17 YoY %
Trade & Remittance 58.0 70.9 71.9 58.8 79.1 36.4% 34.5% 207.0 280.7 35.6%
Facility / Processing Fee 24.8 16.4 22.7 23.5 48.2 94.4% 105.1% 71.9 110.8 54.1%
Third Party Sales 30.7 22.2 27.7 30.4 63.3 106.2% 108.2% 96.2 143.6 49.3%
Interchange Income 34.7 36.9 45.6 51.7 77.6 123.6% 50.1% 120.5 211.8 75.8%
General Banking Fees 33.5 31.0 41.5 49.9 44.9 34.0% -10.0% 116.8 167.3 43.2%
Retail Banking Fees 181.6 177.4 209.6 214.3 313.1 72.4% 46.1% 612.3 914.4 49.3%
Corporate Banking Fees 363.8 409.6 275.7 340.6 586.4 61.2% 72.2% 1,170.6 1,612.3 37.7%
Corporate Trade & Cash 141.2 111.2 103.4 99.5 117.8 -16.6% 18.4% 461.1 431.9 -6.3%
Management
Total Fee Income 686.6 698.2 588.7 654.4 1,017.3 48.2% 55.5% 2,244.0 2,958.6 31.8%
Forex, Debt Capital 116.3 202.3 299.2 307.7 232.4 99.8% -24.5% 468.2 1,041.6 122.5%
Markets
Others & Securities - - - 36.2 7.3 - 36.2
Total Other Income 802.9 900.5 887.9 998.3 1,257.4 56.6% 26.0% 2,712.2 4,036.4 48.8%
43.4
39.2 39.3 40.6 39.8
0.8 0.8 37.1 37.7 38.0
0.7 35.8
0.7 0.7 34.0
0.6 0.6 0.6
0.5
Concall Highlights:
One large account under cement sector slipped into NPA but that account is under merger &
acquisition transaction, so management is hopeful of recovery in June quarter.
RBI direction with respect to discrepancy in recognition of GNPA has been fully accounted for by the
bank in this till FY17.
Raised Rs 4906.65 Crores (USD 750 Mn) through QIP.
NIM should increase by 10 to 20 bps in FY18 as compared to FY17.
Credit cost will follow same current trend.
Advances growth guidance of 25-30%.
Will achieve its earlier guidance of CASA of 40% sooner than FY20.
Saw some strong inflow in currrent account which may not be sustainable.
Will open 250 branches in FY18 which will be 25% growth.
Established Market Leadership in UPI applications for enabling Merchant payments with a market
share of 30%
During the quarter the bank sold Rs 887 Cr of assets. Against these assets, the collateral /security
cover is
adequate and expected to be realizable.
Sectoral Breakup %
Corporate Banking % 64.7 68.0 68.2 67.2 65.1 67.5 67.9 68.9 67.7
Retl. & Busn. Bank % 35.3 32.0 31.8 32.8 34.9 32.5 32.1 31.1 32.3
>Bus. Bank (Medium) 16.1 14.1 13.3 12.7 11.1 11.0 10.7 10.7 10.5
>Micro & Small 10.2 10.6 11.3 10.6 13.0 12.1 12.8 11.8 12.3
Enterprises
>Cons. Bank 9.0 7.3 7.2 9.5 10.8 9.4 8.6 8.6 9.5
Deposits Performance
4QFY15 1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17
Deposits (Rs in Cr) 91,176 95,316 99,344 1,01,437 1,11,720 1,22,581 1,28,024 1,32,376 1,42,874
Growth YoY % 22.9 25.2 24.0 23.1 22.5 28.6 28.9 30.5 27.9
>> Growth QoQ % 10.7 4.5 4.2 2.1 10.1 9.7 4.4 3.4 7.9
CASA (Rs in Cr) 21,079 22,268 25,318 27,019 31,340 36,288 38,790 44,126 51,870
CASA % 23.1 23.4 25.5 26.6 28.1 29.6 30.3 33.3 36.3
CASA Growth YoY % 29.0 31.2 40.5 45.1 48.7 63.0 53.2 63.3 65.5
>> Growth QoQ % 13.2 5.6 13.7 6.7 16.0 15.8 6.9 13.8 17.5
Credit Deposit Ratio 82.9 83.6 80.5 83.2 87.9 86.4 86.1 88.5 92.6
CA (% of Deposits) 9.3 8.8 8.6 9.0 9.8 9.1 10.2 11.2 13.4
SA (% of Deposits) 13.8 14.5 16.9 17.6 18.3 20.5 20.1 22.2 22.9
71.4
28.6
68.7
31.3
64.7
35.3
68.0
32.0
68.2
31.8
67.2
32.8
65.1
34.9
67.5
32.5
67.9
32.1
68.9
31.1
67.7
32.3
High composition of better rated book Strong liability franchise
A & Above B & Below Deposits (Rs in Cr) Growth YoY %
1,60,000 35.0
1,40,000 30.0
1,20,000 25.0
1,00,000
20.0
80,000
15.0
60,000
40,000 10.0
75.8
24.2
75.4
24.6
76.8
23.3
75.7
24.4
75.6
24.4
75.9
24.1
76.5
23.5
76.4
23.6
77.3
22.7
76.2
23.8
23.8
76.1
20,000 5.0
- -
92.6
87.9 88.5
86.4 86.1
82.9 83.6 83.2
80.5
22.5
22.6
23.1
23.4
25.5
26.6
28.1
29.6
30.3
33.3
36.3
3.00
ROE (%) 19.0 16.6 15.3 16.5 17.2
2.00
ROA (%) 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9
1.00 BV 193 291 339 390 451
- P/B (X) 4.6 3.3 4.2 3.7 3.2
Apr-14
Feb-13
Sep-13
Jun-08
Jun-15
Mar-10
Jul-12
Mar-17
Dec-11
Oct-10
Aug-09
Aug-16
Nov-14
Jan-09
Jan-16
May-11
120
direction of RBI on one specific cement company.
110
100 Once again advances growth was healthy at 28% YoY backed by strong
90 growth in corporate loan book. CASA was maintained at 37% level with 6%
80 QoQ growth after demonetization.
Dec-16
Jun-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Jul-16
Apr-16
Apr-17
Sep-16
Feb-17
Mar-17
Jan-17
Aug-16
May-16
Assets quality was stable, although there was spike in slippages but huge
write off and ARC sale managed the GNPA to stabilize.
DEEPAK KUMAR CRAR remain healthy at 15.3% with Tier I of 14.7%.
Deepak.kumar@narnolia.com
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report
Narnolia Securities Ltd
Quarterly Performance
Financials 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 YoY % QoQ% FY16 FY17 YoY %
Interest Inc. 3,132 3,292 3,469 3,699 3,830 22.3% 3.5% 11,581 14,406 24.4%
One -off Interest Exp. 1,863 1,935 2,009 2,121 2,163 16.0% 2.0% 7,064 8,343 18.1%
provisioning NII 1,268 1,356 1,460 1,578 1,667 31.5% 5.6% 4,517 6,063 34.2%
impacted the Other Income 913 973 970 1,017 1,211 32.7% 19.1% 3,297 4,171 26.5%
PAT growth
Total Income 2,181 2,329 2,431 2,595 2,879 32.0% 10.9% 7,814 10,234 31.0%
Ope Exp. 1,030 1,096 1,149 1,232 1,307 26.9% 6.1% 3,672 4,783 30.3%
PPP 1,151 1,234 1,282 1,363 1,572 36.6% 15.3% 4,141 5,451 31.6%
Provisions 214 230 214 217 430 101.3% 98.4% 672 1,091 62.4%
PBT 938 1,003 1,068 1,146 1,142 21.8% -0.4% 3,469 4,360 25.7%
Tax 317 342 364 396 390 23.1% -1.4% 1,183 1,492 26.1%
Net Profit 620 661 704 751 752 21.2% 0.1% 2,286 2,868 25.4%
Operating profit was in line with expectation, One-off provisioning hit bottom line.
Net Interest income grew with a healthy rate of 32% YoY backed by robust NIM expansion and healthy
loan growth.
Other income grew by by 33% YoY supported by both fee income and treasury income growth. Fee
income remained healthy with 29% YoY growth whereas treasury income reported a growth of 55%
YoY.
Operating expenses grew by only 27% YoY which led the cost to income ratio decline to 45.4%
against 47.2% a year back.
Overall operating profit grew by a healthy rate of 36.65 YoY backed by all round strong performance in
terms of NII, other income and C/I ratio.
However despite robust operating profit, PAT grew by only 21% YoY hit by one off provisioning on
standard assets of Rs 122 Cr on one of the exposure of bank in cement industry. Provisioning was
done pursuant to specific RBI advice in this regard.
Profitability Metrix 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 YoY(+/-) QoQ(+/-) FY16 FY17 YoY %
C/I Ratio % 47.2 47.0 47.3 47.5 45.4 -1.83 -2.08 50.4 60.9 10.57
Empl. Cost/ Tot. Exp. % 32.7 32.6 32.7 32.0 30.2 -2.49 -1.81 33.7 31.8 -1.86
Continued Other Exp/Tot. Exp.% 67.3 67.4 67.3 68.0 69.8 2.49 1.81 66.3 68.2 1.86
healthy growth in Provision/PPP % 18.6 18.7 16.7 15.9 27.4 8.80 11.45 16.2 20.0 3.79
NII
Tax Rate % 33.8 34.1 34.0 34.5 34.2 0.36 -0.34 34.1 34.2 0.12
Int Exp./Int Inc. (%) 59.5 58.8 57.9 57.3 56.5 -3.04 -0.87 61.0 57.9 -3.08
Other Inc./Net Inc. % 41.9 41.8 39.9 39.2 42.1 0.23 2.90 42.2 40.8 -1.43
PAT/ Net Income % 28.4 28.4 29.0 28.9 26.1 -2.33 -2.82 29.3 28.0 -1.24
PAT Growth % 25.3 26.0 25.8 29.2 21.2 -4.10 -8.03 27.5 25.4 -2.04
NII Growth % (YoY) 37.1 38.3 33.4 34.5 31.5 -5.60 -3.03 32.1 34.2 2.18
Operating Profit Growth 35.4 33.7 27.3 28.5 36.6 1.22 8.08 33.7 31.6 -2.05
YoY
RoE %
% 14.6 15.1 15.4 15.7 15.1 0.56 -0.60 16.6 15.3 -1.33
RoA % 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.7 -0.16 -0.14 1.9 2.0 0.03
higher yield Yield (Corp. Loan) 10.1 10.2 9.9 9.8 9.1 -0.98 -0.66 10.1 9.8 -0.39
product is Yield (Ret. Loans) 14.9 14.6 14.6 14.5 14.5 -0.41 -0.04 15.3 14.6 -0.72
helping NIM to Yield (Total Assets) 9.7 9.6 9.5 9.3 9.2 -0.48 -0.08 9.8 9.4 -0.42
expand. Cost of Deposits 7.1 6.9 6.6 6.4 6.1 -0.98 -0.27 7.3 6.5 -0.81
Cost Of Funds 5.7 5.7 5.5 5.3 5.2 -0.54 -0.08 6.0 5.4 -0.56
NIM 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 0.06 0 3.9 4.0 0.14
10.09
3.88
9.80
9.71
9.67
9.64
9.51
9.27
9.19
6.45
6.41
3.68 3.68
5.92
5.80
5.73
5.67
5.51
5.27
5.19
Healthy Advances growth was backed by strong corporate loan book growth.
Strong loan growth momentum continued in this quarter also with 28% YoY growth backed by healthy
growth in corporate loan book.
Corporate loan book grew by 30% YoY and consumer finance book grew by 25% YoY. Management
highlighted that corporate book grew due to strong working capital demand as pricing of INDUSINDBK
is now competitive and also they have added some new client.
Vehicle finance book grew by 19% YoY whereas non vehicle book grew by 365 YoY. Credit card
showed strong growth of 425 YoY, LAP grew by 54% YoY, car loan grew by 19% and equipment
financing grew by 27%.
Now management has shifted to PLANNING-4 stage from FY18 FY20 under which it intends loan mix
between corporate and consumer to be 50:50 and within consumer loan book mix would be 50:50
between vehicle finance and other retail book. This strategy will support the NIM due to higher yield in
consumer finance book.
Due to huge write off GNPA declined by 1 bps to 93 bps and NNPA remained stable at 39 bps QoQ.
Restructured assets declined to 37 bps against 41 bps on 3Q FY17. The decline was due to slip of
some accounts into NPA.
PCR decline to 58% from 59% a quarter back. Credit cost was 23 bps for the quarter and it was 68
bps for FY17
Due to specific RBI advice in one of the Cement company which is in process of Merger & Acquisition,
Indusindbk has made standard assets provisioning of Rs 122 Cr on it. However management is
hopeful for full repayment from this account in june quarter and will write back some part of
provisioning on it. 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 YoY(+/-) QoQ(+/-) FY16 FY17 YoY %
GNPA (Rs) 777 861 899 971 1,055 35.8% 8.7% 777 1,055 35.8%
GNPA % 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.06 -0.01 0.9 0.9 0.06
NNPA (Rs) 322 356 369 401 439 36.4% 9.5% 322 439 36.4%
NNPA % 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.03 0.00 0.4 0.4 0.03
Slippages (Rs) 274 253 261 281 634 131.4% 125.6% 848 1,429 68.5%
Restructured Assets % 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 -0.16 -0.04 0.5 0.4 -0.16
Total Stress Assets (Rs) 471 461 438 424 421 -10.7% -0.7% 471 421 -10.7%
(GNPA+Std.
Specific PCR Rest.)
% 58.6 58.7 59.0 58.7 58.4 -0.20 -0.31 58.6 58.4 -0.20
GNPA
Composition 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 YoY(+/-) QoQ(+/-) FY16 FY17 YoY %
Commercial Vehicle 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 -0.03 -0.05 1.0 1.0 -0.03
Utility 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 -0.09 0.05 1.2 1.1 -0.09
Construction Equipment 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.2 -0.08 -0.06 1.3 1.2 -0.08
Small CV 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.9 -0.08 0.07 1.0 0.9 -0.08
TW 3.0 3.2 3.6 3.6 3.5 0.50 -0.08 3.0 3.5 0.5
Cars 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.16 -0.09 0.5 0.7 0.16
LAP/HL/PL 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.22 0.06 0.7 0.9 0.22
Tractor - 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.37 0.09 - 0.4 0.37
Cards 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.3 -0.11 -0.28 1.5 1.3 -0.11
Total 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.04 -0.04 1.1 1.1 0.04
63 1.80
62 1.60
1.40
61
1.20
60 1.00
59 0.80
0.60
58
0.40
0.31
0.31
0.33
0.91
0.38
0.90
0.37
0.94
0.31
0.87
0.81
0.79
0.77
0.82
0.39
0.39
0.36
0.93
57 0.20
63
60
60
59
59
59
58
61
59
56 -
Other Income Break Up 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 YoY(+/-) QoQ(+/-) FY16 FY17 YoY(+/-)
Trade and Remit. 97 109 103 106 121 24.4% 14.0% 323 439 36.0%
Foreign Exchange Income 140 151 156 179 170 21.4% -5.2% 639 656 2.6%
Distribution Fees 138 137 156 181 241 74.2% 33.0% 491 715 45.7%
General Banking Fees 48 56 49 64 63 30.4% -1.1% 185 232 25.3%
Loan Processing fees 228 215 201 195 243 6.6% 24.9% 663 854 28.9%
Investment Banking 122 114 161 160 159 30.1% -0.5% 472 594 25.8%
Total Fee-Based In. 774 782 826 885 997 28.8% 12.7% 2,772 3,489 25.9%
Securities/MM/FX 139 191 145 132 215 55.1% 62.9% 487 683 40.1%
Trading/Others
Total Other Income 913 973 970 1,017 1,212 32.8% 19.2% 3,260 4,172 28.0%
42.5
0.90
42.1
41.7 41.7 41.9 41.8
0.88
0.88
0.86 0.86
0.85 39.9
39.6
0.83 0.83
0.83 39.2
Advances Performance
4QFY15 1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17
Net Advances (Rs in Cr) 68,788 72,243 78,294 82,167 88,419 93,678 98,949 1,02,770 1,13,081
Adv. Growth YoY % 24.8 23.1 30.6 28.7 28.5 29.7 26.4 25.1 27.9
>> Growth QoQ % 7.7 5.0 8.4 4.9 7.6 5.9 5.6 3.9 10.0
Sectoral Breakup %
Corporate Banking% 58.7 58.5 59.2 58.3 58.7 58.8 59.0 58.3 59.7
Consumer Finance% 41.3 41.5 40.8 41.7 41.3 41.2 41.0 41.7 40.3
Deposits Performance
4QFY15 1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17
Deposits (Rs in Cr) 74,134 77,693 80,841 86,423 93,000 1,01,768 1,12,313 1,19,218 1,26,572
>> Growth YoY % 22.5 21.6 22.5 24.6 25.4 31.0 38.9 37.9 36.1
>> Growth QoQ % 6.9 4.8 4.1 6.9 7.6 9.4 10.4 6.1 6.2
CASA (Rs) 25,300 26,945 28,085 30,232 32,724 35,043 41,034 44,162 46,646
>>CASA Growth YoY % 28.5 26.5 25.6 27.9 29.3 30.1 46.1 46.1 42.5
>> Growth QoQ % 7.0 6.5 4.2 7.6 8.2 7.1 17.1 7.6 5.6
CASA % 34.1 34.7 34.7 35.0 35.2 34.4 36.5 37.0 36.9
CA % 16.7 16.6 16.1 16.3 16.6 15.7 18.2 15.9 15.5
SA % 17.5 18.0 18.6 18.7 18.5 18.8 18.3 21.1 21.4
Credit Deposit Ratio 92.8 93.0 96.8 95.1 95.1 92.1 88.1 86.2 89.3
1,20,000 35.00
58.7 58.5 59.2 58.3 58.7 58.8 59.0 58.3 59.7
1,00,000 30.00
25.00 41.3 41.5 40.8 41.7 41.3 41.2 41.0 41.7
80,000 40.3
20.00
60,000
15.00
40,000
10.00
20,000 5.00
- -
1,40,000 45.00
1,20,000 40.00
35.00
1,00,000
30.00
80,000 25.00
60,000 20.00
15.00
40,000
10.00
34.7
35.2
37.0
36.9
34.7
20,000
34.1
35.0
34.4
36.5
5.00
- -
34.5
65.5
34.3
65.7
32.6
32.7
32.0
36.2
63.8
34.8
32.7
67.4
67.3
68.0
30.2
69.8
67.3
Share Holding Pattern % DCB Bank is planning to raise Rs 400 equity capital to strengthen it Tier 1
4QFY17 3QFY17 2QFY17 CRAR ratio to support the loan growth momentum.
Promoters 16.2 16.2 16.2 We value DCB Bank at (2.2x P/B and 10.4x EPS at FY19) Rs 205 and
DII 14.9 15.3 15.9 maintain BUY.
FII 23.6 22.2 20.0
Others 45.3 46.3 47.9 Financials/Valuation FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E
NII 508 620 797 1,033 1,212
DCB is trading at its higher range of PPP 277 349 418 536 672
P/B PAT 191 195 200 253 321
3.00 NIM % 3.7 3.7 3.9 4.2 4.0
2.50 EPS (Rs) 6.8 6.8 7.0 8.2 10.4
2.00 EPS growth (%) 12% 1% 2% 17% 27%
1.50 ROE (%) 13.9% 11.5% 10.7% 11.2% 11.8%
1.00 ROA (%) 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 1.0% 1.1%
0.50 BV 56 63 68 84 93
- P/B (X) 2.0 1.3 2.5 2.1 1.9
4QFY09
2QFY10
4QFY10
2QFY11
4QFY11
2QFY12
4QFY12
2QFY13
4QFY13
2QFY14
4QFY14
2QFY15
4QFY15
2QFY16
4QFY16
2QFY17
4QFY17
Adjusted for tax Total Income 230 237 252 274 284 23% 4% 840 1,047 25%
in 4Q FY16, PAT Ope Exp. 133 144 151 164 169 27% 3% 491 628 28%
would have PPP 97 93 101 109 115 19% 6% 349 418 20%
grown by 14% Provisions 27 21 26 31 34 25% 11% 88 111 27%
YoY in 4Q FY17. PBT 70 72 74 79 81 17% 3% 261 307 17%
Tax 0 25 26 27 29 N/A 4% 67 107 61%
Net Profit 70 47 48 51 53 -24% 3% 195 200 3%
3.9 4.0
3.9
12.9
12.5
12.7
12.5
12.5
12.3
11.9
13.1
12.3
7.9
7.5
7.2
7.1
7.2
7.2
6.6
7.3
7.7
Focus on
Priority Sector Fee Income Growth will remain moderate in near to mid-term.
lending gives an Other Income growth remained muted to 3.5% YoY mainly due to lower fee income growth of 9% YoY.
opportunity to Treasury income was flat YoY at Rs 4 Cr.
generate fees
We expect fee income growth to remain muted in near term as most of the branches are newly
from PLCs. opened and immature which will take much time to generate any significant fee income growth.
Assets Quality
Assets Quality largely remained stable with GNPA at 1.59% against 1.55% and NNPA at 0.79% against
stabilizes
0.74% a quarter back.
Slippages declined by 6% QoQ while the slippage ratio was 51 bps against 55 bps on 3Q FY17.
GNPA at corporate book was higher at Rs 86 Cr against Rs 65 Cr in 3Q FY17. GNPA at mortgage book
was at Rs 72 Cr against Rs 67 in 3Q FY17. While it declined in SME book from Rs 37 Cr to Rs 32 Cr.
PCR including technical write offs remained strong at 74%.
4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 YoY(+/-) QoQ(+/-) FY16 FY17 YoY(+/-)
GNPA (Rs) 197 231 255 228 254 28.6% 11.4% 197 254 28.6%
GNPA % 1.51 1.72 1.75 1.55 1.59 0.08 0.04 1.5 1.6 0.08
NNPA (Rs) 98 116 121 108 124 27.6% 15.2% 98 124 27.6%
NNPA % 0.75 0.87 0.84 0.74 0.79 0.04 0.05 0.8 0.8 0.04
Slippages (Rs) 51 58 50 79 74 45.8% -6.4% 225 261 16.0%
PCR% (In. Tech Write offs) 77.6 75.3 75.4 75.6 73.8 -3.75 -1.84 77.6 73.8 -3.75
Prov/Avg Adv% (Annl.) 0.88 0.63 0.76 0.84 0.89 0.01 0.05 0.75 0.78 2.4%
GNPA % NNPA % PCR % (Inc. Technical Write offs) Provisions/Avg. Advances % (Annualised)
3.00 90.0
74.7 75.3 75.4 75.6 73.8 0.9 0.9
71.9 72.2 72.8 80.0 0.8
77.6 0.8
2.50 0.8
70.0
0.7 0.7
60.0 0.6
2.00 0.6
50.0
1.50 40.0
30.0
1.00
1.76
1.01
1.22
1.99
1.16
1.12
1.51
1.75
0.84
1.55
0.74
1.59
0.79
1.96
1.98
0.75
1.72
0.87
20.0
0.50 10.0
Deposits grew by 29.2% YoY led by demonetization impact. CASA grew by 34.4% YoY, however it
declined by 3.7% QoQ as per expected due to cash limit withdrawal by RBI.
Thus CASA ratio declined to 24.3% against 25.9% on 3Q FY17. CD ratio improved to 82% from 77.4%
in previous quarter.
Concall Highlights:
After FY19 C/I ratio will be below 55%.
Comfortable to grow loan book at 20%.
Competition is intensive from every finance companies.
Comfortable for NIM around 3.7%.
See PLC certificate as an opportunity to grow fee income.
15% fee income growth is possible if branches get matured.
QIP will be raised till Dec, 2017.
Not to grow corporate book beyond 20%. Focus on retail, SME and small ticket size loan.
Added personal loan product recently and expect it to be 5% of the book within a year.
After reaching 300 branches in oct or dec qtr, pace of adding new branches will decline. Only 10 to 12
branches will be added per year.
Hold Rs 40 cr of floating provisions in BS.
Total employee count is 4979.
Rs 45 Cr restructured assets outstanding in 3 accounts.
Deposits Performance
4QFY15 1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17
Deposits (Rs in Cr) 12609 13269 13557 14084 14926 15680 17685 18840 19289
Growth YoY % 22.1 25.8 24.4 18.9 18.4 18.2 30.4 33.8 29.2
>> Growth QoQ % 6.4 5.2 2.2 3.9 6.0 5.0 12.8 6.5 2.4
CASA (Rs) 2950 3057 3267 3218 3490 3619 3875 4871 4689
CASA Growth YoY % 14.3 14.1 17.7 14.2 18.3 18.4 18.6 51.4 34.4
>> Growth QoQ % 4.7 3.6 6.9 -1.5 8.5 3.7 7.1 25.7 -3.7
CASA % 23.4 23.0 24.1 22.8 23.4 23.1 21.9 25.9 24.3
Credit Deposit Ratio 83.0 78.6 82.5 83.3 86.6 85.1 81.6 77.4 82.0
Other Status
4QFY15 1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17
Branches 154 157 160 176 198 205 228 248 262
ATM 328 343 373 397 410 442 490 496 515
Business (In Cr) 23074 23695 24738 25820 27847 29017 32121 33424 35107
Busi. Per Branch (Cr) 150 151 155 147 141 142 141 135 134
Business Growth % YoY 25.0 25.7 25.6 21.0 20.7 22.5 29.8 29.5 26.1
11,181
11,736
12,921
13,337
14,436
15,818
10,465
14,584
4,000 10.0
13,269
13,557
14,084
14,926
15,680
17,685
19,289
12,609
18,840
5.0 5,000
2,000 5.0
- - - -
51.4
12.0 43.0
34.4
15.0
17.7 18.3 18.4 18.6
14.3 14.1 14.2
17.0
23.4
23.0
22.8
23.4
23.1
25.9
24.3
24.1
21.9
Mortgages AIB
Corporate Banking SME + MSME
Gold Loans Construction Finance
Commercial Vehicle Others (PL, Auto, Others)
135 134
Company Update JYOTHYLABs result for Q3FY17 was better than our expectations
CMP 399 considering tough demand environment. Overall volume for this quarter
grew by 3.6% YoY led by proactive measure of the management like
Target Price 410
switching production plans to maximize small skus production, helping
Previous Target Price NA reduce payment burden on retailers etc. Going forward, management is
Upside 3% confident of demand revival as demonetization effect will ease of. As far as
Change from Previous NA margin is concern, the company is looking to increase prices by 5-7%
going ahead which gives us confidence that company may protect margin
going forwards. Implementation of GST may be game changer for
Market Data Organized FMCG players. It may boost market share of the company in
BSE Code 532926 times to come. Lastly, JYOTHYLAB gets large chunk of its revenue from
NSE Symbol JYOTHYLAB South market and South market conditions are improving rapidly which is
52wk Range H/L 427/270 positive for this company. We initiated `BUY on JYOTHYLAB on 27th
Jan2017 at Rs356 with a target price of Rs 410. As company has
Mkt Capital (Rs Cr) 7,256
achieved our target and considering GST related hiccups going
Av. Volume(,000) 172 forward, we recommend to `BOOK PROFIT for now.
Nifty 9,139 Q3FY17_Result Update
Stock Performance JYOTHYLABs sales for this quarter grew by 3% YoY to Rs400 cr led by
1M 3M 12M 3.6% YoY volume improvement. EBITDA declined by 1.3% led by inflation
in key input prices. Gross margin for this quarter, declined by 293 bps YoY
Absolute 9.0 17.0 31.0
led by increase in major raw material prices. In spite of sharp increase in
Rel.to Nifty 9.0 8.0 12.0 input prices, the company managed other cost items efficiently and
controlled EBITDA margin decline to 55 bps YoY which is commendable.
Share Holding Pattern-% PAT margin improved by 18 bps YoY to 5.4% in Q3FY17. PAT grew by7%
3QFY17 2QFY17 1QFY17 YoY to Rs 22 cr.
Promoters 66.9 66.9 66.9 Concall Highlights:
Public 33.1 33.1 33.2 The company will take Selective price increase (price increase as well as
Others -- -- -- reduction of promotion) in Q4FY17 to achieve desired gross margin levels.
Going forward, the company is looking for 5-7% price hike.
Total 100 100 100
In the month of Jan till date company is witnessing double digit growth.
Expected Tax Rate: Q4FY17: 21%, FY18:21% (MAT credit)
Company Vs NIFTY Approx. 75% of the business in South is back to normal.
140
North and East are still struggling.
JYOTHYLAB NIFTY
From 4QFY17 on wards ad expenses will be back to the normal.
130 Next year ad and promotion expenses will be in the range of 15% of the
120 sales.
Margin will back to the normal going forward.
110
Rs,Cr
100 Financials 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E
90 Sales 1515 1647 1758 1958 2161
80 EBITDA 163 220 261 270 288
Net Profit 121 158 133 147 161
EPS 7 9 7 8 9
Rajeev Anand ROE 16% 19% 15% 16% 18%
rajeev.anand@narnolia.com
Narnolia Securities Ltd 29
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report
Overall volume growth(%)
16%
Overall volume growth(%) 14%
14%
12%
10% 10%
10% 9% 9% 9%
8%
8%
6%
6%
4%
4%
2%
0%
3QFY15 4QFY15 1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17
Almond Drop Hair Oil (ADHO) Volume gr % YoY: Quarterly Sales and PAT(in cr)
0%
100
2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 58 58
-2% 49 54 52 53
47
-4.30% -4.20% 50
-4%
-6% -7.08% 0
2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17
-8%
BAJAJ CORP is engaged in the business activity of trading and manufacturing of cosmetics, toiletries and other personal care
products. It is a fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) company. The Company's products include Bajaj Kailash Parbat Thanda
Tel, Bajaj Almond Drops Hair Oil, Bajaj Brahmi Amla Hair Oil, Bajaj Jasmine Hair Oil, Bajaj Nomark Oily Skin Face Wash, Bajaj
Nomarks Herbal Scrub Soap, Bajaj Nomark Oily Skin Cream, Bajaj Nomarks Neem Soap, Bajaj Nomarks Oil Control Soap and
others. The Company has approximately nine Factory, of which four units are situated in Himachal Pradesh , three units are
situated in Uttrakhand for manufacturing of various variants of hair oils and Nomarks and other unit is situated in Guwahati and
one unit Bangladesh.The company reaches consumers through 3.6mn retail outlets serviced by 7707 distributors and 11500
wholesalers.
Risk Disclosure & Disclaimer: This report/message is for the personal information of
the authorized recipient and does not construe to be any investment, legal or taxation
advice to you. Narnolia Securities Ltd. (Hereinafter referred as NSL) is not soliciting any
action based upon it. This report/message is not for public distribution and has been
furnished to you solely for your information and should not be reproduced or
redistributed to any other person in any from. The report/message is based upon publicly
available information, findings of our research wing East wind & information that we
consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and we do not
provide any express or implied warranty of any kind, and also these are subject to change
without notice. The recipients of this report should rely on their own investigations,
should use their own judgment for taking any investment decisions keeping in mind that
past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance & that the the value of
any investment or income are subject to market and other risks. Further it will be safe to
assume that NSL and /or its Group or associate Companies, their Directors, affiliates
and/or employees may have interests/ positions, financial or otherwise, individually or
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