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    Hindsight Bias

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    Fiamma Laraki
    1) The document describes a study that tested for hindsight bias by having participants read scenarios about a gosling experiment and answer questions. 2) Participants were randomly assigned to one of three conditions: a foresight condition where the experiment outcome was unknown, or one of two hindsight conditions where a specific experiment outcome was provided. 3) The researcher hypothesized that participants in the hindsight conditions would report less surprise at the stated experiment outcomes compared to those in the foresight condition, demonstrating hindsight bias.

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    Hindsight Bias

    Uploaded by

    Fiamma Laraki
    60 views3 pages
    1) The document describes a study that tested for hindsight bias by having participants read scenarios about a gosling experiment and answer questions. 2) Participants were randomly assigned to one of three conditions: a foresight condition where the experiment outcome was unknown, or one of two hindsight conditions where a specific experiment outcome was provided. 3) The researcher hypothesized that participants in the hindsight conditions would report less surprise at the stated experiment outcomes compared to those in the foresight condition, demonstrating hindsight bias.

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    Hindsight Bias Research Paper

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    1) The document describes a study that tested for hindsight bias by having participants read scenarios about a gosling experiment and answer questions. 2) Participants were randomly assigned to one of three conditions: a foresight condition where the experiment outcome was unknown, or one of two hindsight conditions where a specific experiment outcome was provided. 3) The researcher hypothesized that participants in the hindsight conditions would report less surprise at the stated experiment outcomes compared to those in the foresight condition, demonstrating hindsight bias.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as docx, pdf, or txt
    60 views3 pages

    Hindsight Bias

    Uploaded by

    Fiamma Laraki
    1) The document describes a study that tested for hindsight bias by having participants read scenarios about a gosling experiment and answer questions. 2) Participants were randomly assigned to one of three conditions: a foresight condition where the experiment outcome was unknown, or one of two hindsight conditions where a specific experiment outcome was provided. 3) The researcher hypothesized that participants in the hindsight conditions would report less surprise at the stated experiment outcomes compared to those in the foresight condition, demonstrating hindsight bias.

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    Running head: HINDSIGHT BIAS 1

    Hindsight Bias: Humanitys Self-Confidence Error

    Fiamma Sierra

    Florida International University


    HINDSIGHT BIAS 2

    Method

    Participants

    Sixty three students from Florida International University participated in the experimental

    study. Twenty-five participants were male (39.7%), and 35 were female (55.5%). They ranged in

    age from 0 to 32, with a mean age of 21.19 (SD=5.54). This included 9 Caucasian participants

    (14.3%), 44 Hispanic American participants (68.9%), 1 Native Indian participant (1.6%), 5

    Africa American participants (7.9%), and 2 Asian Americans participants (3.2%). The remaining

    2 participants did not report their ethnicity (3.2%).

    Materials and Procedure

    In order to test for hindsight bias, students in research methods gathered information

    based on surveys. There were two phases to this study. In the first phase, participants were orally

    asked if they were willing to participate in a research study. In the second phase, participants

    read a short scenario involving a new gosling (baby goose) and answer questions about that

    study, and were provide demographic information about themselves. They received one of three

    versions of this survey: Foresight condition (F), Hindsight-Outcome A condition (H-A), and

    Hindsight-Outcome B condition (H-B). On the bottom of each survey was either an F, H-A,

    or H-B. In one version (the Foresight condition, or F), they will read a study involving a

    newly hatched gosling (baby goose) whose egg had been put in a box surrounded by the sound of

    duck quacks. In this foresight condition, the researchers have yet to run the study, so the possible

    outcomes involve the newly hatched gosling approaching an adult goose or approaching an adult

    duck. The participants in this condition will then complete four short Likert-type questions

    asking them about 1) their surprise if the gosling approached the goose, 2) the likelihood of

    researchers replicating a result in which the gosling approached the goose, 3) the likelihood of
    HINDSIGHT BIAS 3

    researchers replicating a result in which the gosling approached the duck, and 4) a question

    involving the nurture/nature debate. This is our control condition, as the participants will not

    know the study outcome. In the second version (the Hindsight-Outcome A condition, or H

    A), they will read about a similar study involving a gosling exposed to duck quacks while in its

    egg. However, in this version, the researchers have already run the study and found that, once

    hatched, the gosling approached the caged goose. The participants in this condition will complete

    similar questions asking them about 1) their surprise that the gosling approached the caged

    goose, 2) the likelihood of researchers replicating this same result, 3) the likelihood of

    researchers replicating a result in which the gosling approached the caged duck, and 4) a

    question involving the nurture / nature debate. This is our first experimental condition. I suspect

    participants will not be surprised by the research outcome. In the final version (the Hindsight-

    Outcome B condition, or HB), they will read about a similar study involving a gosling

    exposed to duck quacks while in its egg. Like the Outcome A condition, in this version the

    researchers have already run the study, BUT here they found that the gosling approached the

    caged duck. The participants in this condition will complete questions asking them about 1) their

    surprise that gosling approached the caged duck, 2) the likelihood of researchers replicating this

    same result, 3) the likelihood of researchers replicating a result in which the gosling approached

    the goose, and 4) a question involving the nurture / nature debate. This is our second

    experimental condition. As in condition HA, I suspect participants will not be surprised by the

    research outcome.

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