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Dice Stats

This document analyzes the probability of successfully casting spells with different numbers of dice in Warhammer Fantasy Battles. It finds that while more dice increases the chance of meeting a spell's casting value, it also significantly increases the chance of a miscast. The best number of dice recommended for different spell levels is provided. It also examines the average casting value and variance of different magic lores to determine which may be best for wizards of different levels. Overall, it provides statistical analysis and recommendations for optimizing spell casting chances based on a wizard's level and chosen lore.

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35 views

Dice Stats

This document analyzes the probability of successfully casting spells with different numbers of dice in Warhammer Fantasy Battles. It finds that while more dice increases the chance of meeting a spell's casting value, it also significantly increases the chance of a miscast. The best number of dice recommended for different spell levels is provided. It also examines the average casting value and variance of different magic lores to determine which may be best for wizards of different levels. Overall, it provides statistical analysis and recommendations for optimizing spell casting chances based on a wizard's level and chosen lore.

Uploaded by

millambar
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Number of dice

Casting Suggested #
1 2 3 4 5
value of dice
3+ 66.7% 97.2% 92.6% 86.8% 80.4% 2
4+ 50.0% 91.7% 92.6% 86.8% 80.4% 2
5+ 33.3% 83.3% 92.6% 86.8% 80.4% 3
6+ 16.7% 72.2% 91.2% 86.8% 80.4% 3
7+ 0 58.3% 88.0% 86.8% 80.4% 3
8+ 0 41.7% 82.4% 86.8% 80.4% 4
9+ 0 27.8% 74.1% 85.5% 80.4% 4
10+ 0 16.7% 62.5% 83.3% 80.0% 4
11+ 0 8.3% 50.0% 79.5% 80.0% 4
12+ 0 2.8% 37.5% 73.3% 79.3% 5
13+ 0 0 25.9% 65.0% 77.9% 5
14+ 0 0 16.2% 52.5% 75.2% 5
15+ 0 0 9.3% 44.4% 71.0% 5
Average 3.5 7.0 10.5 14.0 17.5
I. Force 0 2.8% 7.4% 12.7% 17.7%
Miscast 0 2.8% 7.4% 13.2% 19.6%

Note: As a spell cast with Irrisistible Force is successful, even if you don't actually roll
high enough, the chance of casting a spell with two dice never actually drops below
2.8%, though the table only shows the odds of rolling the required number in this case.

What should be most interesting is of course the best number of dice for each level. 5
dice doesn't give you a better chance of casting a 4+ than two dice, it's worse. The chance
of a miscast is even as high as 20%. For high level spells this is pretty much like the old
Waaagh! magic - roll a 1 and something nasty happens. This means that unless your
wizard has something that protects him from miscasts he really shouldn't try to cast high
level spells.

If you look up on the table you will se that roughly 60% of all spells cast will be dispelled
if your opponent uses as many dispel dice as you used to cast it. As a rule of thumb you
can look up a spell's casting value and cross refernce it with the number of dice you
might usually spend each round to try to get it off, then multiply this by 2.5 to find a
rough estimate of how many times you will get the spell off per battle. So if your wizard
will on average expend 1 power dice each turn (also counting the turns he doesn't try to
cast it) trying to cast the 'Flaming Sword of Rhuin' (CV 5+) he might reasonably expect
to never get it off (about 40% chance for the entire battle). This means that you need to
commit more dice to each spell. For low level wizards this is less of a problem as they
will usually have 3 dice for their one spell per turn. A level 2 will have 2 dice per spell
and a fourth level will have (on average) 1.5. The lesson should be that if you take a high
level mage you should also take something that gives you more dice.

You should also consider the average casting value of your chosen lore when deciding
which to choose.

Lore Average CV Variance


Rulebook lores
Fire 8.17 8.6
Metal 7.50 5.9
Shadow 8.50 7.5
Beasts 6.67 3.5
Heavens 7.33 7.5
Light 6.50 4.3
Life 6.67 2.3
Death 8.17 3.0
Armybook lores
Little Waaagh! 8.17 3.0
Big Waaagh! 7.83 7.4
Nurgle 8.50 3.5
Tzeentch 8.29 7.2
Slaanesh 8.50 3.5
Athel Loren 7.50 5.9
Skaven 7.86 8.8
Necromancy 7.75 5.9
Dark Magic 8.33 6.7
High Magic 7.67 7.0

For those of you who haven't had much statistics the variance is an indication of how
much the numbers are spread out. A high number indicates a large spread.

For spells with different casting levels (such as the Invocation of Nehek, which can be
cast on a 3+, 7+ or 11+), each casting level is treated as a separate spell.

As you see the different lores are, well, different. Fire has pretty high casting values and a
large spread so if you've only got a low level wizard you might consider something else
as he'll have a hard time getting anything off (too little fizz in his staff, heh heh :] ).
Beasts on the other hand has low casting values and low spread so it's less of a gamble.

To continue the example from above you will see that a level 1 mage using the lore of
Light may reasonably expect to get his one spell off at least two times per battle (if his
opponent uses an average of three dice to dispel his spell each time it succeeeds. The
same wizard using the lore of fire, on the other hand will probably get his spell off less
than two times per battle. One trick you might try with a level two wizard is to try to get
one low level (5+ or less) spell and one high level spell (8+ or higher). If your first spell
comes up as a 7+ or higher, take the lowest one instead (unless it's something you really
want). This way you can spend one die per turn on the low level and three on the high
level, giving you an about equal chance of getting each one off.

When you have decided how many dice you want to use on each spell you should try to
cast the easiest one first (i.e. the one you have most chance of getting off with the dice
you are willing to use) and leave the biggest gamble for last. This means that your
opponent will either have to gamble as well, which is a good thing, I think...

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