Rating: Buy: Sustained Solid Top-Line Growth, With LT Margin Expansion & FCF Growth Initiating at Buy
Rating: Buy: Sustained Solid Top-Line Growth, With LT Margin Expansion & FCF Growth Initiating at Buy
Victor Anthony
646-502-2452
VAnthony@aegiscap.com
Initiating Coverage
January 20, 2017
Key Metrics Amazon.com, Inc.
Rating: Buy
AMZN - NASDAQ $809.04
Pricing Date Jan 19 2017
$953.00
Sustained Solid Top-line Growth, With LT Margin
Price Target
52-Week Range $847.21 - $474.00
Shares Outstanding (mm) 496.0 Expansion & FCF Growth; Initiating At Buy.
Market Capitalization (mm) $401,283.8
3-Mo Average Daily Volume 4,298,391 Investment Highlights:
Book Value/Share $28.42
Price/Book 28.5x We are initiating coverage of Amazon.com with a Buy rating and a $953 price target
for year-end 2017. An investment in Amazon today is a bet that: a) Amazon will
EPS FY: December continue to take share of retail sales, Prime will continue to add subscribers, and
Prior Curr. Prior Curr. retail top-line growth will continue in the high-teen to low-20% range; b) AWS will
2015A 2016E 2016E 2017E 2017E continue to grow at a healthy pace, and margins continue to expand, despite rising
1Q-Mar (0.12) -- 1.07A -- 1.49E competition; c) overall company margins will expand despite aggressive investments
in digital content, infrastructure, India and others; and d) the current valuation will
2Q-Jun 0.19 -- 1.77A -- 2.45E
withstand potential macro shocks as well as quarterly variations in earnings versus
3Q-Sep 0.17 -- 0.52A -- 1.28E
consensus. We see a, b, and c as highly likely over the next two years, while d, if it
4Q-Dec 1.00 -- 1.39E -- 2.07E were to occur, would present buying opportunities.
FY 1.25 -- 4.75E -- 7.30E
Expecting +20% Top-Line Growth Over The Next Two Years. We expect
P/E NM NM NM
GAAP EPS Amazons investments in Prime, infrastructure, devices, digital content, AI, and
newer areas such as groceries, efforts with CPG and in categories such as apparel,
REVENUE to strengthen its competitive moat and allow it to continue to take share from
Prior Curr. Prior Curr. traditional retail. AWS for its part, given its early lead, and competitive strengths,
2015A 2016E 2016E 2017E 2017E and investment in infrastructure and innovation, should continue to grow its
1Q-Mar 22,717.0 -- 29,128.0A -- 35,981.1E revenues at a fast rate. The combination of the core and AWS should allow
2Q-Jun 23,185.0 -- 30,404.0A -- 37,367.5E
Amazon to grow its top line at a 22% CAGR over the next two years.
3Q-Sep 25,358.0 -- 32,714.0A -- 39,933.9E
Deep Dive Into Margin Levers We See Margins Expanding Over The Next
4Q-Dec 35,747.0 -- 44,782.7E -- 54,956.1E
Two Years. 2017 is likely to see a continuation of the stepped-up investments in
FY 107,007.0 --137,028.7E --168,238.6E
the back half of 2016, although at a slower pace. Amazon is investing aggressively
in video content, fulfillment, India, devices, AWS, and add-on services like
Company Description:
Amazon.com is one of the largest e-commerce companies in the world.
Amazon Fresh and Prime Now, logistics, and experimental services such as
The company was incorporated in 1994, went live in July 1995, and Amazon Go. Those investments, particularly for video content and fulfillment
become a public company in 1997. Amazon operates principally via center builds, put pressure on retail CSOI margins in 3Q16. We are projecting a
three business models: core retail sales from Amazon.com, third- further, steeper decline in margins in 4Q16. However, while in past investment
party seller programs, and Amazon Web Services (AWS). Amazon also years we have seen margins degrade for a sustained period, we expect overall
owns the Kindle device manufacturing business and Amazon Prime
Video. Amazon has physical operations in the U.S., Canada, the U.K,
margins to expand at a measured pace over the next two years. Our confidence
Germany, France, Japan, China, Italy, Spain, and India. comes from a deep dive into Amazon's margin levers.
Free Cash Continues To Build. Along with margin expansion, we expect free
cash flow per-share to continue to increase. We estimate that free cash flow per-
share will grow at an 18% CAGR from $18.09 per share in 2016 to $25.27 per-
share in 2018.
Company Description
Amazon.com is one of the largest e-commerce companies in the world. The company was incorporated in 1994, went live in
July 1995, and become a public company in 1997. Amazon operates principally via three business models: core retail sales
from Amazon.com, third-party seller programs, and Amazon Web Services (AWS). Amazon also owns the Kindle device
manufacturing business and Amazon Prime Video. Amazon has physical operations in the U.S., Canada, the U.K, Germany,
France, Japan, China, Italy, Spain, and India.
Investment Thesis
We are initiating coverage of Amazon.com with a Buy rating and a $953 price target for year-end 2017, for expected upside
of ~18%. An investment in Amazon today is a bet that: a) Amazon will continue to take share of retail sales, Prime
will continue to add subscribers, and retail top-line growth will continue in the high-teen to low-20% range; b)
AWS will continue to grow at a healthy pace, and margins continue to expand, despite rising competition; c)
overall company margins will expand despite aggressive investments in digital content, infrastructure, India
and others; and d) the current valuation will withstand potential macro shocks as well as quarterly variations
in earnings versus consensus. We see a, b, and c as highly likely over the next two years, while d, if it were
to occur, would present buying opportunities. It is worth noting that Amazons gross product sales are only 1% of global
retail sales. It is also worth noting that Amazons market capitalization as a percent of its >$5T market opportunity is only 7%
versus 57% for Facebook and 94% for Alphabet.
Expecting +20% Top-Line Growth Over The Next Two Years. We expect Amazons core investments in Prime, infrastructure,
devices, content, AI, and newer areas such as groceries, efforts with CPG and in categories such as apparel, to strengthen its
competitive moat and allow it to continue to take share from traditional retail. AWS for its part, given its early lead, and
competitive strengths, and investment in infrastructure and innovation, should continue to grow its revenues at a fast rate.
The combination of the core and AWS should allow Amazon to grow its top line at a 22% CAGR over the next two years.
Retail Taking Share Growing Revenues At A +20% 2-Year CAGR. Amazons retail value proposition a
combination of selection, low prices, convenience, Prime, product reviews, and customer service continues to
resonate well with consumers who are increasingly using the site as their first stop for retail search. That proposition
continues to drive spend per customer. As a result, we expect Amazon to continue to take share of retail commerce
in most markets where it operates. Prime, which we estimate at close to 60 million members today, continues to be
a key success factor, giving Amazon a competitive advantage against both online and offline retailers. The video
content with Prime Video and, to a lesser extent, music, has served as a strong Prime customer acquisition tool. We
remain skeptical of the Chinese opportunity given the presence of several entrenched players, but India looks like a
greenfield opportunity for Amazon, and Amazon is seeing early successes there despite the rising competition in
that market. Amazons success with the Echo/Alexa devices should also contribute to the top-line growth rate over
the next two years. These products have reportedly been a hit with consumers. We model the core retail platform
growing revenues at a 22% CAGR from 2016 to 2018 as a result of these growth levers.
Our confidence in Amazon continuing to take retail share, in addition to the above, is further strengthened by the
spate of recent traditional retail store closings. From Sears, to Macys to Office Depot, hundreds of store closings
have been announced. J.C. Pennys CEO also announced that he expects store closings this year. This is a circle that
continues to benefit Amazon because we believe Internet sales, including by Amazon, are leading to these store
closings, and that the sales from these closed locations will eventually make their way online, benefiting Amazon.
The below exhibit from Bloomberg further illustrates a trend we expect to continue. Internet sales should continue
to take share of department store sales, and that trend could accelerate as Amazon gains more depth in the apparel
category.
The long-term bull case for Amazon is that it is still relatively under-penetrated in retail. Amazons gross product
sales (1P and 3P estimated sales, grossed up) represent only 1% of worldwide sales.
Exhibit 3. Amazons Gross Product Sales as % of Worldwide Retail and Worldwide E-Commerce
16.0%
14.0% 13.5%
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0% 1.1%
0.0%
Amazon Gross Product Sales % of WW Retail Sales Amazon Gross Product Sales % of WW E-Commerce
AWS Sustains Leadership Growing Revenues At a 43% 2-Year CAGR. From our conversations with Amazon Web
Services (AWS) customers, we understand that Amazon provides immense value to them and switching costs are
high. So despite the rising competition, we expect greater usage by existing customers and growth of additional
customers to continue to support strong top-line growth for the segment. We are expecting revenue growth to slow
from the past two years but still expand at a healthy pace of 43% over the next two years, taking revenues from an
estimated $12.3B in 2016 to $25.1B in 2018. Amazon has been investing aggressively in the build-out of capacity and
in driving innovation, including Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning. The scale and level of services resonates
with customers and developers. That was clearly evident at the last AWS re:Invent, where attendance increased 68%
to 32K from 19K in the prior year.
CSOI - Segment operating income (loss) $673 $660 $1,864 $716 $863 $1,021 $1,070 $3,670 $1,093 $1,281 $1,483 $1,545 $5,402 $7,708
q/q % change 4.2% 20.5% 18.3% 4.8% -70.2% 17.2% 15.8% 4.2%
y/y % change 0.0% -1.9% 182.4% 170.2% 120.7% 96.0% 55.7% 96.9% 52.7% 48.4% 45.3% 44.4% 47.2% 42.7%
y/y % change, Ex-FX 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 161.0% 121.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Margins 21.7% 14.2% 23.7% 27.9% 29.9% 31.6% 29.1% 29.7% 28.4% 30.4% 32.1% 29.6% 30.2% 30.7%
Margins Expanding While Investing For Continued Growth. 2017 is likely to see a continuation of the stepped-up
investments made in the back half of 2016, although at a slower pace. Amazon is investing aggressively in video content,
fulfillment, India, devices, AWS, and add-on services like Amazon Fresh and Prime Now, and experimental services such as
Amazon Go, its convenience store concept. The stepped-up investments, particularly for video content and fulfillment
center builds, have put pressure on retail CSOI margins, which came in at a lower level in 3Q16 than we have seen in several
quarters. It is worth noting that when Amazon invests aggressively in a particular area, in this instance video content and
fulfillment, they are likely seeing a strong market opportunity and are investing against that. Retail CSOI margin declined
800bps YoY to 1.2% in 3Q16, the first YoY decline since 1Q15. For reference, AWSs CSOI margin expanded 661bps in 3Q16.
We are projecting a further, steeper decline in 4Q16, with retail margin of 1.9%, down from 3.2% in 4Q15. However, while
in past investment years we have seen margins degrade (pro-forma margin declined from 5.7% in 2010 to 2.0% in 2014), we
expect both retail and overall margins to expand at a measured rate. The following table highlights the many investments
that Amazon is currently undertaking and our thoughts on their likely impact on margins. Taking all together, we expect the
margin-accretive investments to overcome margin pressures from others, leading to higher longer-term margins for
Amazon. Amazons stock has historically outperformed in periods of expanding margins.
Devices Echo and Alexa, FireTV, Tablets, e-Readers; Amazon is stepping-up hiring due to Amazon is likely selling the newer devices at a slight profit but they are
the popularity of the Echo/Alexa devices. Also Dash Buttons. nonetheless dilutive to margins.
Amazon Fresh Expanded to Northern Virginia, Maryland, Dallas and Chicago in 3Q16 and Likely unprofitable at this time. We wouldn't be surprised if Amazon scaled back
expanded to London. The customer value proposition is high but so are costs. the pace of expansion here.
Online grocery is only 2% of U.S. grocery sales so we see Amazon's ambitions there.
AWS AWS continues to grow at a fast pace despite rising competition and we see that Could fluctuate from quarter-to-quarter but we see a secular margin expansion
growth continuing due to AWS's strong competitive moat. Margins could be lumpy story here.
from quarter-to-quarter as Amazon invests in tools for customers and bring new
regions, Availability Zones, and Edge Locations online, and as they reduce pricing,
as they did in 3Q16. AWS added near 1K services in 2016 vs over 700 in 2015.
However, we expect continued margin expansion due scale benefits and leverage
on fixed expenses, the addition of high-margin services, higher asset utilization.
3P Market Sales Very high margin business (FBA fulfilled units does incur shipping costs). Third-party Positive to gross margins
unit sales were 50% of paid units, up from
Prime Shipping promotions plus the add ons like digital content (video, music, Kindle longer-term positive to margins due to added benefits
Lending Library, Prime Reading, Audible Channels) and others like Amazon Fresh
additional subscriptions, student programs, Prime Pantry, and unlimited Photo
storage. We still see room for Prime expansion in the U.S., where we estimate that
over 30M households have Prime. However, the real growth opportunity is outside
the U.S. Third-party units sales were 50% of paid units, up from 40% in 1Q14. We
expect the of greater 3P mix to continue for the foreseeable future and have a
positive impact to margins.
Apparel Category According to Amazon they are working with brands and manufacturers to sell on the High margin category so overall positive to margins
platform.
Fulfillment Amazon added 26 fulfillment centers in 2016 (18 in 3Q16), mostly in North America Pressure on margins in due to accelerating growth in 2016 as a result of jump in
to support unit growth, including from FBA. That was up from 14 in 2015 so we builds. Less pressure on margins in 2017 and even more so in 2018.
expect margin pressures as these centers get staffed. Amazon has announced 3
new fulfillment center builds thus far in 2017. As Amazon gets more efficiency out of
the fulfillment centers (they get more productive with each passing year), margins
should benefit - should see leverage on shipping and savings on fuel costs. In
addition, the newer fulfillment centers are likely operating at lower variable costs per
unit, so as they become bigger in terms of unit sales, margins should benefit. The
last time Amazon added double-digit capacity was in 2012 so we expect less added
capacity in 2017. Hence, in 2018 Amazon will have more productive centers
operating, which should benefit margins.
FBA FBA delivered more than 2B items worldwide in 2016 and FBA items shipped Mostly margin accretive
worldwide grew more than 50 percent year-over-year during the holiday season.
Sortation Centers Go betweens between Amazon's Fulfillment Centers and customers Likely putting pressure on margins
Prime Now Prime Now is in over 40 cites in 7 countries vs. 17 cities last year. Addresses Amazon is taking a margin hit on this service and will likely do so for sometime.
immediacy and items available in 1 to 2 hours. Adding restaurant delivery to Prime
Now in 19 metropolitan areas. The economics are challenging and Amazon has
admitted that Prime Now is a hard service to run profitably. The service is great for
customers but we question whether Prime Now will ever be profitable.
Physical Book Stores / Amazon Go Amazon has 3 physical book stores (Seattle, San Diego, Portland) with one planned Likely putting pressure on margins
in Boston and another in Chicago. Amazon recently announced the opening of
Amazon Go, a convenience store near its Seattle campus, that uses machine
learning and other technologies to allow purchases.
Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning Used across both retail and AWS to create competitive moats Dilutive to margins now but additive longer-term
Logistics Planes, drones (Prime Air), ships and automobiles!!! - This is likely Amazons' 4th We will go with Amazon's comments for now, although we are hard-pressed to
pillar. Amazon has said that the air cargo leases do not negatively impact margins. see how that would be the case.
Source: Amazon; Aegis Capital
Gross Margins Expanding. We are projecting gross margin expansion of 100bps in 2017 and 2018 due to increased
third-party sales, AWS accounting, and a greater mix of higher-margin categories, such as apparel and consumables,
which are growing faster than other categories at the moment. Further, we also see video content spend growing at
a slower pace in 2017 and 2018 than it did in 2016.
AWS Margins Expanding. While AWS continues to invest in bringing new regions, Availability Zones, and Edge
Locations online, and in new innovative tools, in addition to lower prices, we expect margins to continue to expand
due to scale benefits and leverage on fixed costs, the addition of high-margin services, and higher asset utilization.
Fulfillment. The growth rate of fulfillment accelerated in the first nine months of 2016 due to the additional capacity
(26 fulfillment centers added in 2016 up from 14 in 2015). The last time Amazon added double-digit fulfillment
center builds was in 2012, so we are not expecting another double-digit fulfillment center build in 2017. Therefore,
we model decelerating growth of fulfillment expenses in 2017 and then again in 2018. As Amazon gets more
efficiency out of the fulfillment centers (they get more productive with each passing year), margins should benefit.
We should see leverage on shipping and savings on fuel costs with centers closer to the customer. In addition, the
newer fulfillment centers are likely operating at lower variable costs per unit, so as they become bigger in terms of
unit sales, margins should benefit. Hence, in 2018 Amazon should have more productive centers operating, which
would benefit margins. Amazon has made three U.S. fulfillment center announcements thus far this year, possibly
opportunistically against the Trump narrative of keeping jobs in the U.S. We believe those announcements would
have been made at a later date under a different scenario.
Tech & Content. When Amazon reports 4Q16 results, we are likely to see that Tech & Content expense growth
decelerated for 2016 for the second consecutive year (+32% YoY vs. +33.6% YoY, ex-SBC), likely due to some
leverage on both core retail and AWS. We see that trend continuing over the next two years, +25% YoY in 2017 and
+20% in 2018.
Marketing & Sales Expenses Growth Rate Slowing. Marketing and sales expenses growth accelerated in each
quarter of 2016 (+35% YoY vs +24% YoY in 9mths of 2015) and we expect the same when Amazon reports 4Q16,
with the ramp to support the device sales and Prime Video originals. We see the growth rate slowing in 2017 (+27%
YoY) and 2018 (+19% YoY).
Taken together, we see all of the above factors leading to both retail and AWS pro-forma operating margin expansion in
2017 and 2018, and overall margin expansion in both years, although at a measured pace.
Exhibit 6. Amazon: Core Retail & AWS Pro-forma Operating Margins (CSOI)
35.0%
30.2% 30.7%
29.7%
30.0%
25.0% 23.7%
20.0%
14.2%
15.0%
10.0%
0.0%
2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E
6.0% 5.7%
5.4%
4.8%
5.0%
4.2%
4.0%
3.3%
2.7% 2.7%
3.0%
2.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E
Free Cash Continues To Build. Along with margin expansion, we expect free cash flow per-share to continue to increase, also
at a measured pace. We estimate that capital expenditures will range between 4.5% and 5.0% over the next two years
leading free cash flow per share to grow at an 18% CAGR from $18.09 per share in 2016 to $25.27 per-share in 2018.
$30.15
$25.27
$25.15
$22.61
$20.15
$18.09
$19.91
$15.44
$15.15
$14.61
$10.15
$10.32
$10.00
$5.50
$4.55 $4.41 $4.18
$5.15
$0.86
$1.14
$0.15
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E
Estimates
For 4Q16, we are estimating revenues of $44.783B (+25% YoY), slightly above the consensus of $44.675B, and GAAP EPS of
$1.39, in line with consensus. Our revenue estimate consists of North American growth of 23.8% YoY, International growth
of 22.4% YoY, and AWS growth of 53% YoY. We forecast CSOI margin of 4.2% and operating margin of 2.4%. We see Amazon
reporting results in line with our estimates for 4Q16. App traffic (downloads, MAU, DAUs) were strong in the quarter.
For 2017, we are estimating revenues of $168.24B (+22.8% YoY), slightly above the consensus of $168.16B, and GAAP EPS of
$7.30, below the consensus of $8.74. Our revenue estimate consists of North American growth of 20.8% YoY, International
growth of 20.3% YoY, and AWS growth of 44.9% YoY. We forecast CSOI margin of 5.4% (+56bps) and operating margin of
3.6%. Our estimates are conservative on the margins given our expectations for a heavy investment year in 2017.
1Q17E
Revenues $35,981 $35,975 $6 0.0%
EBITDA $4,159 $4,395 ($237)
Pro-Forma Oper Income (CSOI) $1,948
Non-GAAP EPS $2.40
GAAP EPS $1.49 $1.66
2017E
Revenues $168,239 $168,161 $78 0.0%
EBITDA $18,349 $20,135 ($1,787)
Pro-Forma Oper Income (CSOI) $9,099
Non-GAAP EPS $11.41
GAAP EPS $7.30 $8.74
2018E
Revenues $203,671 $204,204 ($533) -0.3%
EBITDA $24,072 $26,516 ($2,443)
Pro-Forma Oper Income (CSOI) $13,662
Non-GAAP EPS $15.23
GAAP EPS $10.62 $14.87
Source: Aegis Capital; Company Reports
We value Amazon using a sum-of-the-parts analysis, in which we apply a 1.5x multiple to our 2018 retail revenue estimate
and a 12x multiple to our 2018 AWS EBITDA estimate. After adjusting for cash & equivalents and debt, we arrive at a per
share value of $953 for year-end 2017, for expected upside of 18%.
Exhibit 2: Sum-of-The-Parts Valuation
2018 2018 % of per
Revenue EBITDA Multiple Enterprise Value Total EV Share
Amazon is currently trading above its historical price-to-sales valuation and similarly above its average relative price-to-sales
to the S&P 500, but off its peak
2.9x 1.95x
2.0x
1.8x
2.4x
1.6x
1.4x 1.28x
1.9x
1.2x
1.4x 1.0x
0.8x 0.91x
0.9x
0.6x
0.4x 0.4x
10/1/2011
10/1/2012
10/1/2013
10/1/2014
10/1/2015
10/1/2016
10/1/2011
10/1/2012
10/1/2013
10/1/2014
10/1/2015
10/1/2016
1/1/2011
4/1/2011
7/1/2011
1/1/2012
4/1/2012
7/1/2012
1/1/2013
4/1/2013
7/1/2013
1/1/2014
4/1/2014
7/1/2014
1/1/2015
4/1/2015
7/1/2015
1/1/2016
4/1/2016
7/1/2016
1/1/2011
4/1/2011
7/1/2011
1/1/2012
4/1/2012
7/1/2012
1/1/2013
4/1/2013
7/1/2013
1/1/2014
4/1/2014
7/1/2014
1/1/2015
4/1/2015
7/1/2015
1/1/2016
4/1/2016
7/1/2016
Interestingly, and for both illustrative and comparison purposes, Amazons current market capitalization is only 7% of its
market opportunity (global retail sales and our rough estimate for AWSs market opportunity), compared to 57% for
Facebook and 94% for Alphabet. For this comparison, we rely on the $600B global advertising market for Facebook and
Alphabet, and ignore Facebooks under-monetized opportunities outside of advertising (Messenger, WhatsApp, Oculus, e-
commerce) and Alphabets optimality on Other Bets.
Exhibit 11. Amazons Market Capitalization % of Market Opportunity vs Facebook & Alphabet
100% 94%
90%
80%
70%
60% 57%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10% 7%
0%
Amazon Facebook Alphabet
Amazons shares trade at 2.3x 2017 sales, 21x EV/EBITDA and 71x our Adjusted EPS (PEG of 1.5x). The shares are trading
below the e-commerce group on price-to-sales but above the group on EV/EBITDA and Adj. PE, reflective of Amazons heavy
investments.
Online Media
Alphabet GOOGL $827.22 $839.00 $672.66 $564,802 $485,684 6.7x 5.7x 4.9x 16% 13.4x 11.5x 9.9x 23.9x 20.1x 16.6x 1.2x 19% 1.0x 4.0%
Facebook FB $127.95 $133.50 $89.37 $368,193 $342,053 12.5x 9.3x 7.4x 30% 18.7x 15.3x 11.7x 31.1x 30.0x 23.0x 1.7x 25% 1.2x 2.8%
Twitter TWTR $16.88 $25.25 $13.73 $12,163 $10,153 4.0x 3.7x 3.3x 9% 14.2x 12.9x 11.1x 32.5x 30.3x 23.3x 1.7x 19% 1.6x 1.0%
IAC IACI $70.89 $71.48 $38.82 $5,785 $5,931 1.9x 1.8x 1.7x 7% 11.9x 9.7x 8.3x 28.7x 22.5x 16.4x 1.3x 36% 0.6x 4.9%
Match Group MTCH $18.36 $19.74 $8.41 $5,025 $6,010 4.9x 4.3x 3.9x 13% 15.0x 12.8x 11.2x 25.5x 23.9x 20.1x 1.4x 15% 1.6x 4.1%
Bankrate RATE $11.28 $12.93 $6.59 $1,016 $1,176 2.7x 2.4x 2.2x 10% 10.2x 9.5x 8.6x 13.3x 16.4x 13.7x 0.9x 10% 1.6x 9.0%
Zillow ZG $37.36 $39.99 $16.46 $2,020 $1,806 2.1x 1.7x 1.5x 21% 12.9x 7.6x 5.5x 43.9x 62.7x 41.5x 3.6x 15% 4.2x 8.5%
Yahoo! YHOO $42.13 $44.92 $26.15 $40,197 $10,354 3.0x 3.0x 3.0x 0% 12.6x 12.0x 11.7x 38.8x 65.5x 64.5x 3.7x 5% 13.1x 0.9%
XO Group XOXO $19.14 $20.99 $13.64 $507 $404 2.7x 2.4x 2.2x 10% 12.8x 11.4x 9.5x 48.1x 38.4x 29.7x 2.2x 25% 1.5x 5.9%
Groupon GRPN $3.51 $5.94 $2.15 $2,005 $1,545 0.5x 0.5x 0.5x 4% 9.8x 7.0x 5.5x NM 35.8x 20.7x 2.0x 38% 1.0x 4.2%
Zynga ZNGA $2.64 $3.08 $1.78 $2,047 $1,174 1.6x 1.4x 1.3x 10% 20.1x 10.3x 7.6x 103.7x 37.5x 25.5x 2.1x 30% 1.3x 5.3%
Pandora P $13.10 $14.98 $7.10 $3,343 $3,431 2.5x 2.0x 1.5x 28% NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM
Netflix NFLX $139.64 $143.46 $79.95 $61,811 $62,868 7.1x 5.7x 5.1x 18% 104.0x 60.7x 40.8x 201.4x 137.1x 84.5x 7.8x 43% 3.2x NM
Yelp YELP $40.84 $43.36 $14.53 $3,341 $2,908 4.1x 3.2x 2.7x 23% 24.8x 16.8x 12.7x 51.7x 33.1x 26.1x 1.9x 31% 1.1x 0.0x
WebMD WBMD $50.30 $67.55 $45.46 $1,870 $1,876 2.7x 2.5x 2.4x 6% 8.2x 7.6x 7.1x 50.3x 25.2x 24.2x 1.4x 13% 2.0x 7.1%
Average 3.9x 3.3x 2.9x 14% 20.6x 14.7x 11.5x 53.3x 41.3x 30.7x 2.4x 23% 2.5x 4.7%
Median 2.7x 2.5x 2.4x 10% 13.1x 11.5x 9.7x 38.8x 31.7x 23.7x 1.8x 22% 1.5x 4.2%
Online Travel
Priceline PCLN $1,026.74 $1,600.93 $954.02 $50,749 $53,712 5.0x 4.3x 3.8x 15% 13.1x 11.3x 9.8x 16.0x 13.9x 12.1x 0.8x 16% 0.9x 7.5%
Expedia EXPE $85.84 $133.55 $88.40 $12,879 $14,179 1.6x 1.4x 1.2x 14% 8.7x 7.3x 6.1x 18.2x 14.2x 11.4x 0.8x 19% 0.8x 9.7%
Trip Advisor TRIP $69.01 $72.46 $45.63 $10,052 $9,421 6.3x 5.7x 5.1x 11% 25.4x 24.3x 20.1x 44.8x 44.2x 36.7x 2.5x 12% 3.8x 3.0%
Average 4.3x 3.8x 3.4x 13% 15.8x 14.3x 12.0x 26.3x 24.1x 1.4x 15% 1.8x 6.7%
Median 5.0x 4.3x 3.8x 14% 13.1x 11.3x 9.8x 18.2x 14.2x 0.8x 16% 0.9x 7.5%
Video Commerce
QVC Group QVCA/B $19.17 $27.25 $17.88 $9,521 $12,826 1.2x 1.2x 1.1x 4% 6.7x 6.4x 6.0x 11.7x 17.1x 12.4x 1.0x 20% 0.9x 11.6%
HSN, Inc. HSNI $33.70 $55.87 $30.75 $1,759 $2,317 0.7x 0.6x 0.6x 2% 7.9x 7.5x 6.9x 20.6x 12.3x 11.2x 0.7x 4% 3.0x 7.8%
EVINE Live EVLV $1.16 $2.40 $0.41 $74 $120 0.2x 0.2x 0.2x 3% 14.5x 7.2x 5.1x NM NM NM NM 25% NM -2.2%
Average 0.7x 0.7x 0.6x 3% 9.7x 7.0x 6.0x 16.2x 14.7x 11.8x 0.8x 16% 1.9x 5.7%
Median 0.7x 0.6x 0.6x 3% 7.9x 7.2x 6.0x 16.2x 14.7x 11.8x 0.8x 20% 1.9x 7.8%
Apple AAPL $118.61 $120.50 $89.47 $623,630 $643,507 2.9x 2.8x 2.6x 6% 9.0x 8.7x 8.2x 14.0x 12.8x 11.7x 0.7x 8% 1.7x 10.5%
Media $10,907 $10,938 $10,026 $2,480 $2,283 $2,491 $3,364 $10,618 $2,522 $2,260 $2,502 $3,532 $10,816 $11,024
Electronics & Other GM $18,817 $22,369 $25,195 $7,034 $7,504 $8,056 $11,055 $33,649 $8,983 $9,379 $10,024 $14,039 $42,425 $51,803
Other $211 $209 $197 $52 $57 $62 $71 $242 $62 $66 $71 $83 $282 $315
Total International $29,935 $33,516 $35,418 $9,566 $9,844 $10,609 $14,490 $44,509 $11,568 $11,704 $12,597 $17,655 $53,523 $63,142
y/y % change 13.9% 12.0% 5.7% 23.5% 30.1% 28.3% 22.4% 25.7% 20.9% 18.9% 18.7% 21.8% 20.3% 18.0%
AWS $3,108 $4,644 $7,880 $2,566 $2,886 $3,231 $3,680 $12,363 $3,849 $4,214 $4,620 $5,225 $17,908 $25,138
y/y % change 49.4% 69.7% 63.9% 58.2% 55.0% 53.0% 56.9% 50.0% 46.0% 43.0% 42.0% 44.9% 40.4%
Total Global Net Sales $74,453 $88,988 $107,007 $29,128 $30,404 $32,714 $44,783 $137,029 $35,981 $37,368 $39,934 $54,956 $168,239 $203,671
y/y % change 21.9% 19.5% 20.2% 28.2% 31.1% 29.0% 25.3% 28.1% 23.5% 22.9% 22.1% 22.7% 22.8% 21.1%
Total Cost of Sales $54,182 $62,752 $71,651 $18,866 $19,180 $21,260 $30,046 $89,352 $22,945 $23,199 $25,553 $36,322 $108,019 $128,733
Gross Profit 20,271 26,236 35,356 10,262 11,224 11,454 14,737 47,677 13,036 14,168 14,381 18,634 60,220 74,938
Gross Profit Margin % 27.2% 29.5% 33.0% 35.2% 36.9% 35.0% 32.9% 34.8% 36.2% 37.9% 36.0% 33.9% 35.8% 36.8%
Fulfillment $8,585 $10,766 $13,411 $3,687 $3,878 $4,335 $5,983 $17,883 $4,635 $4,771 $5,267 $7,333 $22,005 $26,392
Marketing & Sales $3,134 $4,332 $5,252 $1,436 $1,546 $1,738 $2,322 $7,042 $1,902 $1,954 $2,132 $2,950 $8,937 $10,595
Technology and Content $6,565 $9,275 $12,542 $3,526 $3,880 $4,135 $4,813 $16,354 $4,572 $4,748 $5,029 $5,995 $20,345 $24,310
General and administrative $1,128 $1,552 $1,747 $497 $580 $639 $511 $2,227 $616 $704 $776 $621 $2,717 $3,266
Other Operating Expenses $114 $133 $171 $45 $55 $32 $32 $164 $32 $32 $32 $32 $128 $128
Total Operating Expenses 73,708 88,810 104,774 28,057 29,119 32,139 43,707 133,022 34,701 35,407 38,789 53,253 162,151 193,423
y/y % change 22.0% 20.5% 18.0% 24.9% 28.2% 28.8% 26.2% 27.0% 23.7% 21.6% 20.7% 21.8% 21.9% 19.3%
% of Revenues 99.0% 99.8% 97.9% 96.3% 95.8% 98.2% 97.6% 97.1% 96.4% 94.8% 97.1% 96.9% 96.4% 95.0%
EBITDA, Adj $5,246 $6,553 $10,805 $3,487 $3,656 $3,467 $4,013 $14,609 $4,159 $4,732 $4,430 $5,028 $18,349 $24,072
y/y % change 37.1% 24.9% 64.9% 63.6% 41.8% 33.8% 14.6% 35.2% 19.3% 29.4% 27.8% 25.3% 25.6% 31.2%
EBITDA Margin 7.0% 7.4% 10.1% 12.0% 12.0% 10.6% 9.0% 10.7% 11.6% 12.7% 11.1% 9.1% 10.9% 11.8%
Depreciation & Amortization $3,253 $4,745 $6,281 $1,827 $1,909 $2,084 $2,147 $7,967 $2,211 $2,277 $2,346 $2,416 $9,250 $10,411
Pro Forma Operating Income (CSOI) $1,993 $1,808 $4,524 $1,660 $2,108 $1,383 $1,867 $6,643 $1,948 $2,455 $2,084 $2,612 $9,099 $13,662
y/y % change 19.5% -9.3% 150.2% 135.1% 96.1% 39.3% 6.7% 46.8% 17.3% 16.5% 50.7% 39.9% 37.0% 50.1%
Margin 2.7% 2.0% 4.2% 5.7% 6.9% 4.2% 4.2% 4.8% 5.4% 6.6% 5.2% 4.8% 5.4% 6.7%
Operating Income $745 $178 $2,233 $1,071 $1,285 $575 $1,075 $4,006 $1,280 $1,960 $1,145 $1,703 $6,088 $10,248
y/y % change 10.2% -76.1% 1154.5% 320.0% 176.9% 41.6% -2.9% 79.4% 19.5% 52.5% 99.1% 58.4% 52.0% 68.3%
Margin 1.0% 0.2% 2.1% 3.7% 4.2% 1.8% 2.4% 2.9% 3.6% 5.2% 2.9% 3.1% 3.6% 5.0%
Interest Income $38 $39 $49 $21 $24 $26 $17 $88 $21 $15 $16 $20 $72 $127
Interest Expense ($141) ($210) ($460) ($117) ($116) ($118) ($116) ($467) ($116) ($116) ($116) ($116) ($464) ($464)
Other Income (Expenses) ($136) ($119) ($254) $81 ($14) $8 $0 $75 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Remeasurements and other $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
PRETAX INCOME $506 ($112) $1,568 $1,056 $1,179 $491 $977 $3,703 $1,184 $1,859 $1,045 $1,608 $5,696 $9,911
Tax Rate % 29% 29% 29% 45% 26% 47% 30% 29% 30% 30% 30% 30% 29% 29%
Income Tax Expense (Benefit) $162 $167 $951 $475 $307 $229 $293 $1,304 $355 $558 $314 $482 $1,709 $2,973
Equity in Losses of Equity Method Investees ($71) $38 ($21) ($68) ($15) ($10) ($10) ($103) ($103) ($103) ($103) ($103) ($412) ($1,648)
Other (Amort of Goodwill, Acquisition charges, other) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
NET INCOME $273 ($241) $596 $513 $857 $252 $674 $2,296 $726 $1,198 $629 $1,022 $3,575 $5,290
y/y % change -782.5% -188.3% -347.3% -1000.0% 831.5% 219.0% 39.7% 285.2% 41.5% 39.8% 149.5% 51.8% 55.7% 48.0%
Basic Shares Outstanding 457 462 468 471 473 474 474 473 476 478 480 482 479 487
Diluted Shares Outstanding 461 466 475 481 483 485 485 484 487 489 491 493 490 498
Basic GAAP EPS $0.60 ($0.52) $1.27 $1.09 $1.81 $0.53 $1.42 $4.85 $1.53 $2.51 $1.31 $2.12 $7.46 $10.86
Fully Diluted GAAP EPS $0.59 -$0.52 $1.25 $1.07 $1.77 $0.52 $1.39 $4.75 $1.49 $2.45 $1.28 $2.07 $7.30 $10.62
y/y % change -781.0% -188.0% -340.5% -970.1% 818.0% 214.4% 38.6% 278.4% 39.8% 38.1% 146.4% 49.3% 53.7% 45.6%
Pro Forma EPS (Fully Diluted) $2.21 $4.54 $0.52 $1.69 $2.40 $1.37 $2.48 $7.94 $2.40 $3.11 $2.57 $3.32 $11.41 $15.23
y/y % change 213.4% 105.7% -88.6% -176.5% 372.9% 144.6% 50.3% 1441.3% 42.4% 29.8% 87.4% 33.6% 43.6% 33.5%
Source: Company Reports; Aegis Capital Estimates
Amazon.com Free Cash Flow (in $Millions, except per share data)
Period 2013 2014 2015 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16E 2016E 1Q17E 2Q17E 3Q17E 4Q17E 2017E 2018E
TTM Free Cash Flow, TCM Calc
+ Cash from ops (SCF) $5,474 $6,841 $11,920 $11,259 $12,727 $14,603 $15,267 $15,267 $14,287 $15,123 $17,131 $18,649 $18,649 $21,749
- Capex ($3,443) ($4,892) ($4,588) ($4,896) ($5,394) ($6,040) ($6,522) ($6,522) ($6,962) ($6,933) ($6,889) ($7,571) ($7,571) ($9,165)
= Levered Free Cash Flow $2,031 $1,949 $7,332 $6,363 $7,333 $8,563 $8,745 $8,745 $7,325 $8,190 $10,242 $11,078 $11,078 $12,584
q/q % change -13.2% 15.2% 16.8% 2.1% -16.2% 11.8% 25.1% 8.2%
y/y % change 412.9% -4.0% 276.2% 101.3% 67.7% 58.6% 19.3% 19.3% 15.1% 11.7% 19.6% 26.7% 26.7% 13.6%
FCF % of EBITDA, Adjusted 38.7% 29.7% 67.9% 52.3% 55.4% 60.7% 59.8% 59.9% 27.9% 29.8% 36.7% 60.4% 60.4% 52.3%
TTM FCF per share $4.41 $4.18 $15.44 $13.23 $15.18 $17.66 $18.03 $18.09 $15.04 $16.75 $20.86 $22.47 $22.61 $25.27
q/q % change -13.2% 14.8% 16.3% 2.1% -16.6% 11.4% 24.5% 7.7%
y/y % change 411.8% -5.1% 269.1% 94.6% 65.3% 56.3% 18.3% 17.2% 13.7% 10.3% 18.1% 24.6% 25.0% 11.8%
LFCF/pro forma EPS % 199.8% 92.1% 2994.8% 299.9% 296.1% 248.2% 227.0% 227.7% 105.9% 105.0% 130.1% 196.9% 198.1% 165.9%
FCF Less Lease Principal repayments, TTM $1,251.00 $529.00 $4,748.00 $3,489.00 $3,925.00 $4,853.00 $4,989.70 $4,989.70 $3,419.29 $4,452.34 $6,506.21 $7,157.21 $7,157.21 $9,916.94
q/q % change 0.0% -26.5% 12.5% 23.6% 2.8% -31.5% 30.2% 46.1% 10.0%
y/y % change 0.0% -57.7% 797.5% 133.8% 64.5% 57.0% 5.1% 5.1% -2.0% 13.4% 34.1% 43.4% 43.4% 38.6%
FCF Per-Share Less Lease Obligations $1.14 $10.00 $7.25 $8.13 $10.01 $10.29 $10.32 $7.02 $9.10 $13.25 $14.52 $14.61 $19.91
q/q % change -26.5% 12.0% 23.1% 2.8% -31.8% 29.7% 45.5% 9.6%
y/y % change 0.0% 780.5% 126.1% 62.1% 54.7% 4.2% 3.2% -3.2% 12.0% 32.4% 41.1% 41.5% 36.3%
CSOI - Segment operating income (loss) $673 $660 $1,864 $716 $863 $1,021 $1,070 $3,670 $1,093 $1,281 $1,483 $1,545 $5,402 $7,708
q/q % change 4.2% 20.5% 18.3% 4.8% -70.2% 17.2% 15.8% 4.2%
y/y % change 0.0% -1.9% 182.4% 170.2% 120.7% 96.0% 55.7% 96.9% 52.7% 48.4% 45.3% 44.4% 47.2% 42.7%
y/y % change, Ex-FX 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 161.0% 121.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Margins 21.7% 14.2% 23.7% 27.9% 29.9% 31.6% 29.1% 29.7% 28.4% 30.4% 32.1% 29.6% 30.2% 30.7%
Fixed assets, net $10,949 $16,967 $21,838 $23,308 $25,190 $27,177 $26,822 $26,822 $26,230 $25,634 $25,086 $25,143 $25,143 $23,897
Deferred tax assets, long term portion $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Goodwill $2,655 $3,319 $3,759 $3,785 $3,774 $3,815 $3,815 $3,815 $3,815 $3,815 $3,815 $3,815 $3,815 $3,815
Other assets $1,930 $2,892 $3,373 $3,522 $3,892 $4,296 $4,296 $4,296 $4,296 $4,296 $4,296 $4,296 $4,296 $4,296
Total Assets $40,159 $54,505 $65,444 $61,128 $65,076 $70,897 $80,860 $80,860 $73,067 $75,312 $80,376 $92,835 $92,835 $109,380
Accounts payable $15,133 $16,459 $20,397 $14,990 $16,123 $18,801 $25,177 $25,177 $17,721 $18,986 $22,029 $29,629 $29,629 $34,366
Accrued expenses and other current liabilities $6,688 $9,807 $10,384 $9,431 $9,613 $10,497 $13,707 $13,707 $12,211 $12,398 $13,437 $17,679 $17,679 $22,441
Unearned revenue $1,159 $1,823 $3,118 $3,766 $3,851 $4,200 $3,906 $3,906 $4,652 $4,733 $5,127 $4,793 $4,793 $5,803
Interest payable $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Current portion of long-term debt and other $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Total current liabilities $22,980 $28,089 $33,899 $28,187 $29,587 $33,498 $42,791 $42,791 $34,584 $36,117 $40,593 $52,102 $52,102 $62,610
Long-term debt $3,191 $8,265 $8,235 $8,219 $8,158 $8,205 $8,205 $8,205 $8,205 $8,205 $8,205 $8,205 $8,205 $8,205
Other Long-term liabilities $4,242 $7,410 $9,926 $9,966 $10,793 $11,412 $11,412 $11,412 $11,412 $11,412 $11,412 $11,412 $11,412 $11,412
Total Liabilities & Shareholders Equity $40,159 $54,505 $65,444 $61,128 $65,076 $70,897 $80,860 $80,860 $73,067 $75,312 $80,376 $92,835 $92,835 $109,380
Source: Company Reports; Aegis Capital Estimates
Amazon.com Cash Flow Statement (in $Millions, except per share data)
Period 2013 2014 2015 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16E 2016E 1Q17E 2Q17E 3Q17E 4Q17E 2017E 2018E
Net income (loss) $273 ($241) $596 $513 $857 $252 $674 $2,296 $726 $1,198 $629 $1,022 $3,575 $5,290
Adjustments to reconcile net income (loss) to net cash provided$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Depreciation of fixed assets, including internal-use software$3,253
and website development,
$4,745 and other
$6,281
amortization$1,827 $1,909 $2,084 $2,147 $7,967 $2,211 $2,277 $2,346 $2,416 $9,250 $10,411
Stock-based compensation $1,134 $1,497 $2,120 $544 $768 $776 $759 $2,847 $636 $463 $907 $877 $2,883 $3,286
Other operating expense (income) $114 $130 $155 $43 $53 $31 $32 $159 $32 $32 $32 $32 $128 $128
Losses (gains) on sales of marketable securities, net $1 ($4) $5 $2 $1 $0 $0 $3 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Remeasurements and other $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Non-cash interest expense and other $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Other Expense (income) $166 $62 $244 ($52) $31 ($23) $0 ($44) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Deferred income taxes ($157) ($319) $82 $11 $106 ($81) $0 $36 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Excess tax benefits on stock awards ($78) ($6) ($119) ($207) ($113) ($173) $0 ($493) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Cumulative effect of change in accounting principle $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Investing Activities
Purchases of fixed assets, including internal-use software and
($3,443)
website development
($4,892) ($4,588) ($1,179) ($1,711) ($1,841) ($1,791) ($6,522) ($1,619) ($1,682) ($1,797) ($2,473) ($7,571) ($9,165)
Acquisitions, net of cash acquired ($311) ($980) ($795) ($16) ($14) ($84) $0 ($114) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Sales and maturities of marketable securities and other investments
$2,304 $3,349 $3,025 $1,138 $931 $1,431 $0 $3,500 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Purchases of marketable securities ($2,826) ($2,543) ($4,092) ($636) ($1,645) ($2,076) $0 ($4,357) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Proceeds from sale of subsidiary $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Investments in equity-method investees and other investments $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Net cash provided by (used in) investing activities ($4,276) ($5,066) ($6,450) ($693) ($2,439) ($2,570) ($1,791) ($7,493) ($1,619) ($1,682) ($1,797) ($2,473) ($7,571) ($9,165)
Financing Activities
Proceeds from exercises of stock options and other $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Excess tax benefit on stock awards $78 $6 $119 $207 $113 $173 $0 $493 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Proceeds from issuance of common stock, net of issuance costs$0 $0 $93 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Common Stock repurchased $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Proceeds from long-term debt and other $380 $6,360 ($680) $9 $66 $8 $0 $83 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Repayments of long-term debt, capital lease obligations ($997) ($1,865) ($712) ($175) ($70) ($26) $0 ($271) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Net cash provided by (used in) financing activities ($539) $4,433 ($3,763) ($789) ($1,039) ($827) ($795) ($3,450) ($980) ($980) ($980) ($980) ($3,921) ($2,667)
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Foreign-currency effect on cash and cash equivalents ($85) ($309) ($374) $222 $64 $46 $0 $332 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Net increase (decrease) in cash and cash equivalents $574 $5,899 $1,333 ($3,420) $51 $1,135 $6,890 $4,656 ($5,739) $1,639 $3,717 $7,541 $7,157 $9,917
Cash and the beginning of period $8,084 $8,658 $14,557 $15,890 $12,470 $12,521 $13,656 $15,890 $20,546 $14,806 $16,445 $20,162 $20,546 $27,703
Cash and cash equivalents at end of period $8,658 $14,557 $15,890 $12,470 $12,521 $13,656 $20,546 $20,546 $14,806 $16,445 $20,162 $27,703 $27,703 $37,620
Source: Company Reports; Aegis Capital Estimates
Total Media 29.2% 25.3% 21.0% 19.5% 17.1% 17.5% 17.0% 17.7% 16.6% 14.5% 15.0% 14.7% 15.1% 13.2%
Total Electronics 65.5% 68.4% 70.6% 70.5% 72.2% 71.5% 73.8% 72.2% 71.5% 73.1% 72.3% 74.8% 73.1% 73.4%
Total Other 5.3% 1.1% 1.0% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.0% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.0% 1.1% 1.1%
North America Media 14.5% 13.0% 11.7% 11.0% 9.6% 9.9% 9.5% 9.9% 9.6% 8.5% 8.7% 8.3% 8.7% 7.7%
North America Electronics 40.3% 43.3% 47.1% 46.4% 47.6% 46.9% 49.1% 47.7% 46.6% 48.0% 47.2% 49.2% 47.9% 48.0%
North America Other 5.0% 0.8% 0.8% 1.0% 0.9% 0.9% 0.8% 0.9% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.8% 0.9% 0.9%
International Media 14.6% 12.3% 9.4% 8.5% 7.5% 7.6% 7.5% 7.7% 7.0% 6.0% 6.3% 6.4% 6.4% 5.4%
International Electronics 25.3% 25.1% 23.5% 24.1% 24.7% 24.6% 24.7% 24.6% 25.0% 25.1% 25.1% 25.5% 25.2% 25.4%
International Other 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Margins
Gross Margins 27.2% 29.5% 33.0% 35.2% 36.9% 35.0% 32.9% 34.8% 36.2% 37.9% 36.0% 33.9% 35.8% 36.8%
EBITDA Margins 7.0% 7.4% 10.1% 12.0% 12.0% 10.6% 9.0% 10.7% 11.6% 12.7% 11.1% 9.1% 10.9% 11.8%
Operating Margins 1.0% 0.2% 2.1% 3.7% 4.2% 1.8% 2.4% 2.9% 3.6% 5.2% 2.9% 3.1% 3.6% 5.0%
Marketing Expenses as a % of sales, ex-Stock based comp 4.1% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 5.0% 5.1% 5.0% 5.0% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% 5.2% 5.1% 5.0%
Fulfillment exp. as % of Sales , ex-stock based comp 11.1% 11.7% 12.1% 12.3% 12.5% 12.7% 13.0% 12.7% 12.5% 12.5% 12.7% 13.0% 12.7% 12.6%
Technology & Content exp. as % of Sales, ex-stock based8.0%
comp 9.5% 10.6% 11.0% 12.0% 11.3% 9.8% 10.9% 11.7% 12.0% 11.3% 10.0% 11.1% 11.0%
General and administrative exp. as % of Sales, ex-stock based
1.3% comp 1.5% 1.4% 1.5% 1.7% 1.7% 1.0% 1.4% 1.5% 1.7% 1.7% 1.0% 1.4% 1.4%
Total Opex as % of Sales, ex-stock based comp 97.5% 98.1% 95.9% 94.5% 94.4% 95.9% 95.9% 95.3% 94.7% 93.5% 94.9% 95.3% 94.7% 93.4%
Marketing & Sales (ex-SBC), q/q% --- (18.7)% (70.2)% 19.8% 48.2% --- (18.0)% (71.9)% 11.0% 50.0% --- ---
Marketing & Sales (ex-SBC), y/y% 29.8% 38.1% 20.3% 31.7% 37.4% 35.9% 31.9% 34.0% 33.0% 26.1% 23.2% 27.6% 27.3% 18.7%
Technology and Content (ex-SBC), q/q% 0.1% 13.6% 1.5% 18.6% --- (4.1)% 6.5% 0.6% 21.8% --- ---
Technology and Content (ex-SBC), y/y% 44.3% 42.1% 33.6% 27.3% 35.0% 28.2% 36.8% 32.1% 31.2% 23.0% 21.9% 25.2% 25.1% 20.0%
General and administrative (ex-SBC), q/q% 29.2% 20.1% 4.3% (22.8)% --- 27.7% 19.5% 3.6% (22.4)% --- ---
General and administrative (ex-SBC), y/y% 26.8% 38.9% 12.0% 16.9% 31.1% 39.2% 25.0% 28.3% 23.5% 22.9% 22.1% 22.7% 22.8% 21.0%
Book Value per Share $21.15 $23.05 $28.18 $30.68 $34.24 $36.66 $38.04 $38.16 $38.74 $40.04 $41.07 $42.83 $43.10 $54.52
Cash & Equivalents per Share $27.01 $37.37 $41.70 $32.97 $34.24 $37.83 $52.03 $52.20 $40.04 $43.22 $50.62 $65.71 $66.11 $84.96
Source: Company Reports; Aegis Capital Estimates
Product Sales $60,903 $70,080 $79,269 $20,581 $21,116 $22,339 $31,348 $95,384 $25,063 $25,579 $26,870 $37,920 $115,431 $137,712
q/q % change -22.7% 2.6% 5.8% 40.3% $0 -20.0% 2.1% 5.0% 41.1% $0 $0
y/y % change 17.7% 15.1% 13.1% 20.5% 23.5% 21.0% 17.8% 20.3% 21.8% 21.1% 20.3% 21.0% 21.0% 19.3%
% of Total 81.8% 78.8% 74.1% 70.7% 69.5% 68.3% 70.0% 69.6% 69.7% 68.5% 67.3% 69.0% 68.6% 67.6%
Service Sales $13,550 $18,908 $27,738 $8,547 $9,288 $10,375 $13,435 $41,645 $10,918 $11,789 $13,064 $17,036 $52,807 $65,959
q/q % change -6.4% 8.7% 11.7% 29.5% $0 -18.7% 8.0% 10.8% 30.4% $0 $0
y/y % change 44.8% 39.5% 46.7% 51.7% 52.7% 50.5% 47.2% 50.1% 27.7% 26.9% 25.9% 26.8% 26.8% 24.9%
% of Total 18.2% 21.2% 25.9% 29.3% 30.5% 31.7% 30.0% 30.4% 30.3% 31.5% 32.7% 31.0% 31.4% 32.4%
3P Sales $9,615 $17,949 $26,717 $8,218 $8,944 $10,003 $12,999 $40,164 $10,509 $11,365 $12,609 $16,504 $50,987 $63,792
q/q % change -6.9% 8.8% 11.8% 29.9% $0 -19.2% 8.1% 10.9% 30.9% $0 $0
y/y % change 40.6% 86.7% 48.8% 52.2% 53.0% 50.5% 47.3% 50.3% 27.9% 27.1% 26.0% 27.0% 26.9% 25.1%
% of Total 12.9% 20.2% 25.0% 28.2% 29.4% 30.6% 29.0% 29.3% 29.2% 30.4% 31.6% 30.0% 30.3% 31.3%
3P Gross Sales $56,559 $105,582 $157,159 $48,341 $52,612 $58,841 $76,464 $236,258 $61,819 $66,851 $74,169 $97,085 $299,924 $375,249
q/q % change -6.9% 8.8% 11.8% 29.9% $0 -19.2% 8.1% 10.9% 30.9% $0 $0
y/y % change 40.6% 86.7% 48.8% 52.2% 53.0% 50.5% 47.3% 50.3% 27.9% 27.1% 26.0% 27.0% 26.9% 25.1%
Commission % 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0%
Total Gross Product Sales $117,462 $175,662 $236,428 $68,922 $73,728 $81,180 $107,812 $331,642 $86,882 $92,429 $101,039 $135,005 $415,355 $512,961
q/q % change -12.2% 7.0% 10.1% 32.8% $0 -19.4% 6.4% 9.3% 33.6% $0 $0
y/y % change 27.7% 49.5% 34.6% 41.1% 43.2% 41.0% 37.3% 40.3% 26.1% 25.4% 24.5% 25.2% 25.2% 23.5%
1P % of Gross Product Sales 51.8% 39.9% 33.5% 29.9% 28.6% 27.5% 29.1% 28.8% 28.8% 27.7% 26.6% 28.1% 27.8% 26.8%
3P % of Gross Product Sales 48.2% 60.1% 66.5% 70.1% 71.4% 72.5% 70.9% 71.2% 71.2% 72.3% 73.4% 71.9% 72.2% 73.2%
AWS, Advertising, CC Fees $3,935 $959 $1,021 $329 $344 $372 $436 $1,481 $408 $424 $455 $532 $1,820 $2,167
q/q % change 8.6% 4.6% 8.1% 17.2% $0 -6.3% 3.9% 7.3% 16.8% $0 $0
y/y % change 56.0% -75.6% 6.5% 40.6% 46.4% 49.4% 43.9% 45.0% 24.2% 23.3% 22.4% 22.0% 22.9% 19.0%
AWS $3,108 $4,644 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Advertising & Other $827 ($3,685) $1,021 $329 $344 $372 $436 $1,481 $408 $424 $455 $532 $1,820 $2,167
Source: Company Reports; Aegis Capital Estimates
Required Disclosures
Price Target
We have a $953 price target on Amazon
Valuation Methodology
Our price target is based on a sum-of-the-parts analysis.
Risk Factors
Rising competition for retail and AWS.
Key man risk Amazons future growth and strategic direction could be negatively impacted if Jeff Bezos were not able to perform
his duties as CEO.
Macro weakness could weigh on growth. The impact of the Brexit vote is one that we are monitoring closely.
India could impose restrictions on foreign firms that, like China, could diminish Amazons competitive position.
Research analyst compensation is not dependent upon investment banking revenues received by Aegis Capital Corp.
Aegis Capital Corp. intends to seek or expects to receive compensation for investment banking services from the subject company within
the next three months.
The firm nor the Research Analyst have any material conflict of interest in which the Research Analyst has a reason to know or knows
at the time of publication of this research report.
Neither the research analyst who prepared this report or a member of the research analysts household has a financial position in the debt
or equity securities of the subject company.
As of the report date neither Aegis Capital Corp. or its affiliates beneficially own 1% or more of any class of common equity securities
of the subject company of this report.
Investment Banking
Services/Past 12 Mos.
Rating Percent Percent
BUY [BUY] 85.98 30.43
HOLD [HOLD] 13.08 21.43
SELL [SELL] 0.93 0.00
Meaning of Ratings
A) A Buy rating is assigned when we do not believe the stock price adequately reflects a company's prospects over 12-18 months.
B) A Hold rating is assigned when we believe the stock price adequately reflects a company's prospects over 12-18 months.
C) A Sell rating is assigned when we believe the stock price more than adequately reflects a company's prospects over 12-18 months.
Other Disclosures
Other Disclosures The information contained herein is based upon sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed by us and is not
considered to be all inclusive. It is not to be construed as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or buy the securities mentioned herein.
Aegis Capital Corp., its affiliates, shareholders, officers, staff, and/or members of their families, may have a position in the securities
mentioned herein, and, before or after your receipt of this report, may make or recommend purchases and/or sales for their own accounts
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The common stock of the subject company in this report may not be suitable for certain investors based on their investment objectives,
degree of risk, as well as their financial status.