Juan Linz, Presidentialism, and Democracy: A Critical Appraisal

Author(s): Scott Mainwaring and Matthew S. Shugart

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Source: Comparative Politics, Vol. 29, No. 4 (Jul., 1997), pp. 449-471
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 Juan Linz, Presidentialism, and Democracy

A CriticalAppraisal

Scott Mainwaringand MatthewS. Shugart

Since the 1960s Juan J. Linz has been one of the world's foremost contributorsto
our understandingof democracy, authoritarianism,and totalitarianism.Although
many of his contributionshave had a significant impact, few have been as far-
reaching as his essay "Presidentialor ParliamentaryDemocracy: Does It Make a
Difference?,"originally written in 1985. The essay argued that presidentialismis
less likely than parliamentarismto sustain stable democraticregimes. It became a
classic even in unpublished form. Among both policymakers and scholars it
spawneda broaddebate aboutthe meritsand especially the liabilities of presidential
government.Now that the definitive version of the essay has appeared,we believe
that a critical appraisalis timely. This task is especially importantbecause Linz's
argumentsagainst presidentialismhave gained widespreadcurrency.
This article critically assesses Linz's argumentsabout the perils of presidential-
ism. Although we agree with several of Linz's criticisms of presidentialism,we dis-
agree that presidentialismis particularlyorientedtowardswinner-takes-allresults.'
We argue that the superior record of parliamentarysystems has rested partly on
where parliamentarygovernmenthas been implemented,and we claim that presi-
dentialismhas some advantagesthatpartiallyoffset its drawbacks.These advantages
can be maximizedby paying carefulattentionto differences among presidentialsys-
tems. Otherthings being equal, presidentialismtends to functionbetter where pres-
idencies have weak legislative powers, parties are at least moderatelydisciplined,
and party systems are not highly fragmented.Finally, we argue that switching from
presidentialismto parliamentarismcould exacerbateproblems of governability in
countrieswith undisciplinedparties.Even if parliamentarygovernmentis more con-
ducive to stable democracy,much rests on what kind of parliamentarismand presi-
dentialism is implemented.2
By presidentialismwe mean a regime in which, first, the presidentis always the
chief executive and is elected by popularvote or, as in the U.S., by an electoral col-
lege with essentially no autonomywith respect to popularpreferencesand, second,
the terms of office for the presidentand the assembly are fixed. Under pure presi-
dentialism the president has the right to retain ministers of his or her choosing
regardlessof the composition of the congress.

449
ComparativePolitics July 1997

The Perils of Presidentialism: Linz's Argument

Linz bases his argumentabout the superiorityof parliamentarysystems partiallyon

the observationthatfew long establisheddemocracieshave presidentialsystems. He
maintains that the superior historical performanceof parliamentarydemocracies
stems from intrinsic defects of presidentialism.He analyzes several problems of
presidentialsystems. We briefly summarizethe five most importantissues.
First, in presidentialsystems the presidentand assembly have competing claims
to legitimacy. Both are popularly elected, and the origin and survival of each are
independentfrom the other.3Since both the presidentand legislature "derive their
power from the vote of the people in a free competition among well-defined alter-
natives, a conflict is always latent and sometimes likely to eruptdramatically;there
is no democraticprincipleto resolve it."4 Linz arguesthat parliamentarismobviates
this problembecause the executive is not independentof the assembly. If the major-
ity of the assembly favorsa change in policy direction,it can replace the government
by exercising its no confidence vote.
Second, the fixed term of the president's office introducesa rigidity that is less
favorableto democracythanthe flexibility offered by parliamentarysystems, where
governments depend on the ongoing confidence of the assembly. Presidentialism
"entailsa rigidity . .. that makes adjustmentto changing situationsextremely diffi-
cult; a leader who has lost the confidence of his own party or the parties that ac-
quiesced [in] his election cannot be replaced."'By virtue of their greaterability to
promote changes in the cabinet and government, parliamentarysystems afford
greateropportunitiesto resolve disputes. Such a safety valve may enhance regime
stability.
Third,presidentialism"introducesa strongelement of zero-sum game into demo-
craticpolitics with rules that tend towarda 'winner-take-all'outcome."In contrast,
in parliamentarysystems "power-sharingand coalition-formingare fairly common,
and incumbentsare accordingly attentive to the demands and interests of even the
smaller parties."In presidentialsystems direct popular election is likely to imbue
presidentswith a feeling that they need not undertakethe tedious process of con-
structingcoalitions and making concessions to the opposition.6
Fourth,the style of presidentialpolitics is less propitiousfor democracythan the
style of parliamentarypolitics. The sense of being the representativeof the entire
nationmay lead the presidentto be intolerantof the opposition."The feeling of hav-
ing independentpower, a mandatefrom the people ... is likely to give a president
a sense of power and mission thatmight be out of proportionto the limited plurality
that elected him. This in turnmight make resistances he encounters... more frus-
trating,demoralizing,or irritatingthan resistancesusually are for a prime minister.7
The absence in presidentialsystems of a monarchor a "presidentof the republic"
deprives them of an authoritywho can exercise restrainingpower.

450
 Scott Mainwaringand MatthewJ. Shugart

Finally, political outsiders are more likely to win the chief executive office in
presidential systems, with potentially destabilizing effects. Individuals elected by
directpopularvote are less dependenton and less beholden to political parties. Such
individualsare more likely to govern in a populist, antiinstitutionalistfashion.

A Critique of Linz's Argument

We agree with the main thrustof four of Linz's five basic criticisms of presidential-
ism. We concur that the issue of dual legitimacy is nettlesome in presidentialsys-
tems, but we believe that his contrastbetween presidentialand parliamentarysys-
tems is too stark.To a lesser degree than in presidentialsystems, conflicting claims
to legitimacyalso exist in parliamentarysystems. Conflicts sometimes arise between
the lower and upper houses of a bicameral legislature, each claiming to exercise
legitimatepower. If both houses have the power of confidence over the cabinet, the
most likely outcome when the houses are controlledby differentmajoritiesis a com-
promise coalition cabinet.In this case dual legitimacy exists, not between executive
and assembly, but between the two chambers of the assembly. This arrangement
could be troublesome if the two chamberswere controlled by opposed parties or
blocs. In a few parliamentarysystems, including Canada, Germany, and Japan,
upperhouses have significantpowers over legislation but can not exercise a vote of
no confidence againstthe government.In some the upperhouse can not be dissolved
by the government.Then, there is a genuine dual legitimacy between the executive
and part of the legislature. Thus, dual democratic legitimacy is not exclusively a
problemof presidentialism,thoughit is more pronouncedwith it. A unicameralpar-
liament would avoid the potential of dual legitimacy under parliamentarism,but it
sacrifices the advantagesof bicameralism,especially for large, federal, and plural
countries.8
Another overlooked potential source of conflicting legitimacy in parliamentary
republicsis the role of the head of state, who is usually called "president"but tends
to be elected by parliament.The constitutions of parliamentaryrepublics usually
give the president several powers that are - or may be, subject to constitutional
interpretation- more than ceremonial.Examples include the president'sexclusive
discretion to dissolve parliament(Italy), the requirementof countersignaturesof
cabinetdecrees (Italy), suspensoryveto over legislation(Czech Republic,Slovakia),
the power to decree new laws (Greece for some time after 1975), and appointments
to high offices, sometimes (as in the Czech Republic and Slovakia) including min-
istries. Linz argues that the presidentin such systems "can play the role of adviser
or arbiterby bringingpartyleaderstogetherand facilitatingthe flow of information
among them."He also notes that "no one in a presidentialsystem is institutionally
entitled to such a role." He is quite right that political systems often face moments

451
ComparativePolitics July 1997

when they need a "neutral"arbiter.However, for the position of head of state to be

more than feckless it is necessary to make it "institutionallyentitled"to other tasks
as well. Linz correctlynotes that,"if presidentsin pureparliamentaryrepublicswere
irrelevant,it would not make sense for politicians to put so much effort into electing
theirpreferredcandidateto the office."'
Paradoxically,the more authoritythe head of state is given, the greater is the
potentialfor conflict, especially in newer democracieswhere roles have not yet been
clearly definedby precedent.Hungaryand especially Slovakiahave had several con-
stitutionalcrises involving the head of state, and in some ThirdWorldparliamentary
republics such crises have at times been regime-threatening, as in Somalia
(1961-68) and Pakistan. Politicians indeed care who holds the office, precisely
because it has potentialfor applyingbrakesto the parliamentarymajority.The office
of the presidencymay not be democraticallylegitimatedvia popularelection, but it
typically has a fixed term of office and a longer termthanthe parliament'sBy prais-
ing the potentialof the office in serving as arbiter,Linz implicitly acknowledgesthe
Madisonianpoint thatplacing uncheckedpower in the hands of the assembly major-
ity is not necessarily good. Again, the key is careful attentionto the distributionof
powers among the differentpolitical playerswho are involved in initiatingor block-
ing policy.
We also agree that the rigidity of presidentialism,created by the fixed term of
office, can be a liability, sometimes a serious one. With the fixed term it is difficult
to get rid of unpopularor inept presidentswithout the system's breakingdown, and
it is constitutionallybarredin many countriesto reelect a good president.However,
there is no reason why a presidentialsystem must prohibit reelection. Provisions
against reelection have been introducedprimarilyto reduce the president's incen-
tives to abuse executive powers to secure reelection. Despite the potentialfor abuse,
reelection can be permitted,and we believe it should be in countrieswhere reliable
institutionssafeguardelections from egregious manipulationby incumbents.
Even if reelection is permitted,we are still left with the rigidity of fixed term
lengths. One way of mitigating this problem is to shorten the presidentialterm so
that if presidentslose supportdramatically,they will not be in office for as long a
time. Therefore,we believe that a four year term is usually preferableto the longer
mandatesthat are common in LatinAmerica.
The argumentaboutthe flexibility of replacingcabinetsin parliamentarysystems
is two-edged. In a parliamentarysystem the prime minister's party can replace its
leader or a coalition partnercan withdrawits supportand usher in a change of gov-
ernmentshort of the coup that might be the only way to remove a presidentwho
lacks support.We agree with Linz that cabinet instability need not lead to regime
instabilityand can offer a safety valve. Yet crises in many failed parliamentarysys-
tems, includingSomaliaand Thailand,have come aboutprecisely because of the dif-
ficulty of sustainingviable cabinets. Presidentialismraises the thresholdfor remov-

452
 Scott Mainwaringand MatthewJ. Shugart

ing an executive; opponents must either wait out the term or else countenance
undemocraticrule. There may be cases when this higher thresholdfor government
change is desirable,as it could provide more predictabilityand stability to the poli-
cymaking process than the frequentdismantlingand reconstructingof cabinets that
afflict some parliamentarysystems.
Theoretically, the problem of fixed terms could be remedied without adopting
parliamentarismby permittingundercertainconditionsthe calling of early elections.
One way is to allow either the head of government or the assembly majority to
demandearly elections for both branches,as is the case undernewly adoptedIsraeli
rules. Such provisions representa deviation from presidentialism,which is defined
by its fixed terms. Nevertheless, as long as one branch can not dismiss the other
without standing for reelection itself, the principle of separationof powers is still
retainedto an extent not present in any variantof parliamentarism.
We take issue with Linz's assertionthatpresidentialisminducesmore of a winner-
takes-allapproachto politics thandoes parliamentarism.As we see it, parliamentary
systems do not afford an advantageon this point. The degree to which democracies
promotewinner-take-allrules dependsmostly on the electoral and partysystem and
on the federal or unitary nature of the system. Parliamentarysystems with disci-
plined partiesand a majoritypartyoffer the fewest checks on executive power, and
hence promote a winner-takes-allapproach more than presidential systems.'0 In
GreatBritain,for example, in the last two decades a partyhas often won a decisive
majorityof parliamentaryseats despite winning well under 50 percent of the votes.
Notwithstandingits lack of a decisive marginin popularvotes, the partycan control
the entire executive and the legislature for a protractedperiod of time. It can even
use its dissolutionpower strategicallyto renew its mandatefor anotherfive years by
calling a new election before its currentterm ends.
Because of the combinationof disciplined parties, single memberpluralityelec-
toral districts, and the prime minister's ability to dissolve the parliament,
Westminstersystems provide a very weak legislative check on the premier.In prin-
ciple, the MPs of the governingpartycontrolthe cabinet,but in practicethey usual-
ly supporttheir own party's legislative initiatives regardlessof the merits of partic-
ular proposals because their electoral fates are closely tied with that of the party
leadership.As a norm, a disciplined majority party leaves the executive virtually
unconstrainedbetween elections." Here, more than in any presidentialsystem, the
winnertakes all. Given the majorityof a single partyin parliament,it is unlikely that
a no confidence vote would prevail, so there is little or no opposition to check the
government.Early elections occur not as a flexible mechanismto rid the countryof
an ineffective government,but at the discretionof a ruling majorityusing its disso-
lution power strategicallyto renew its mandatefor anotherfive years by calling a
new election before its currentterm ends.12
Presidentialismis predicatedupon a system of checks and balances. Such checks

453
ComparativePolitics July 1997

and balances usually inhibit winner-takes-alltendencies; indeed, they are designed

precisely to limit the possibility that the winner would take all. If it loses the presi-
dency, a partyor coalition may still controlcongress, allowing it to block some pres-
idential initiatives. If the president's own legislative powers are reactive only (a
veto, but no decree powers), an opposition-controlledcongress can be the prime
mover in legislating, as it is in the United States and Costa Rica, the two longest
standingpresidentialdemocracies.Controllingcongress is not the biggest prize, and
it usually does not enable a partyor coalition to dictatepolicy, but it allows the party
or coalition to establishparameterswithin which policy is made. It can be a big prize
in its own right if the presidencyhas relatively weak legislative powers.
Moreover, compared to Westminsterparliamentarysystems, most presidential
democracies offer greaterprospects of dividing the cabinet among several parties.
This practice,which is essentially unknown among the Westminsterparliamentary
democracies, is common in multipartypresidentialsystems. To get elected, presi-
dents need to assemble a broad interpartycoalition, either for the first round (if a
pluralityformatobtains)or for the second (if a two round,absolute majorityformat
obtains). Generally,presidentsallocate cabinet seats to parties other than their own
in orderto attractthe supportof these partiesor, after elections, to rewardthem for
such support.Dividing the cabinet in this mannerallows losers in the presidential
contest a piece of the pie. The norm in multipartypresidentialsystems is similar to
that in multipartyparliamentarysystems: a coalition governs, cabinet positions are
divided among several parties,and the presidenttypically must retainthe supportof
these partiesto govern effectively.
Thus, most parliamentarysystems with single member district electoral systems
have strongerwinner-takes-allmechanisms than presidentialsystems. The combi-
nation of parliamentarismand a majorityparty specifically produces winner-takes-
all results. This situation of extreme majoritarianismunder parliamentarismis not
uncommon;it is foundthroughoutthe Caribbeanand some partsof the ThirdWorld.
In fact, outside western Europe all parliamentarysystems that have been continu-
ously democraticfrom 1972 to 1994 have been based on the Westminstermodel (see
Table 1). Thus, Linz is not rightwhen he states that an absolutemajorityof seats for
one party does not occur often in parliamentarysystems.'3In presidentialsystems
with single memberpluralitydistricts,the partythatdoes not win the presidencycan
control congress, therebyprovidingan importantcheck on executive power.
Linz's fourthargument,that the style of presidentialpolitics is less favorableto
democracythanthe style of parliamentarypolitics, rests in parton his view thatpres-
identialisminduces a winner-takes-alllogic. We have alreadyexpressed our skepti-
cism about this claim. We agree that the predominantstyle of politics differs some-
what between presidentialand parliamentarysystems, but we would place greater
emphasison differencesof style that stem from constitutionaldesign and the nature
of the partysystem.

454
 Scott Mainwaringand MatthewJ. Shugart

Table 1 IndependentCountriesThat Were ContinuouslyDemocratic, 1972-1994

Inc. level Pop. size Parliamentary Presidential Other

Low/lower- Micro
middle
Small Jamaica Costa Rica
Mauritius

Medium/ Colombia
Large DominicanRepublic

Upper- Micro Nauru

middle Barbados
Malta

Small Botswana
Trinidadand Tobago

Medium/ Venezuela
Large

Upper Micro Luxembourg Iceland

Small Ireland Cyprus

New Zealand
Norway

Medium/ Australia United States Austria

Large Belgium Finland
Canada France
Denmark Switzerland
Germany
Israel
Italy
Japan
Netherlands
Sweden
United Kingdom

All regimes in the "other"column are premier-presidential,except for Switzerland.

Countriesthat have become independentfrom Britainor a British Commonwealthstate since

1945: Jamaica,Mauritius,Nauru,Barbados,Malta, Botswana,Trinidadand Tobago, Cyprus,
Israel

455
ComparativePolitics July 1997

Finally, we agree with Linz that presidentialismis more conducive than parlia-
mentarismto the election of a political outsideras head of governmentand that this
process can entail serious problems.But in presidentialdemocraciesthat have more
institutionalizedparty systems the election of political outsiders is the exception.
Costa Rica, Uruguay,Colombia, and Venezuela have not elected an outsider presi-
dent in recent decades, unless one counts Rafael Calderaof Venezuela in his latest
incarnation(1993). Argentinalast elected an outsiderpresidentin 1945, when Per6n
had not yet built a party.In Chile political outsiderswon the presidentialcampaigns
of 1952 and 1958, but they were exceptions ratherthan the norm. The most notable
recent cases of elections of political outsiders, FernandoCollor de Mello in Brazil
(1989) and Alberto Fujimoriin Peru (1990),owe much to the unravelingof the party
systems in both countriesand in Fujimori'scase also to the majorityrun-off system
that encouragedwidespreadparty system fragmentationin the first round.

Assessingthe Recordof Presidentialism

Linz correctlystates thatmost long establisheddemocracieshave parliamentarysys-
tems. Presidentialismis poorly representedamong long established democracies.
This fact is apparentin Table 1, which lists countries that have a long, continuous
democraticrecordaccordingto the criteriaof FreedomHouse.
FreedomHouse has been ratingcountrieson a scale of 1 to 7 (with 1 being best)
on political rights and civil rights since 1972. Table 1 lists all thirty-threecountries
thatwere continuouslydemocraticfrom 1972 to 1994. We considereda countrycon-
tinuously democratic if it had an average score of 3 or better on political rights
throughoutthis period.14 Additionally, the scores for both political and civil rights
needed to be 4 or betterin every annualFreedomHouse survey for a countryto be
consideredcontinuouslydemocratic.
Of the thirty-threelong establisheddemocracies,only six are presidentialdespite
the prevalence of presidentialismin many parts of the globe. Twenty-two are par-
liamentary,and five fall into the "other"category. However, the superiorrecordof
parliamentarismis in partan artifactof where it has been implemented.
Table 1 provides informationon three other issues that may play a role in a so-
ciety's likelihood of sustaining democracy: income level, population size, and
British colonial heritage.It is widely recognized that a relatively high income level
is an importantbackgroundcondition for democracy.'"In classifying countries by
income levels, we followed the guidelines of the WorldBank's WorldDevelopment
Report 1993: low is under $635 per capita GNP; lower middle is $636 to $2,555;
upper middle is $2,556 to $7,,910; and upper is above $7,911. We collapsed the
bottom two categories. Table 2 summarizesthe income categories of countries in
Table 1.

456
 Scott Mainwaringand MatthewJ. Shugart

Table2 IncomeLevelsof Continuous

Democracies,1972-1994(numberof countriesin each
category)
PerCapitaGNPin US $ Parliamentary Presidential Other
0-2555 2 3 0
2556-7910 5 1 0
over 7911 15 2 5
total 22 6 5

Most of these long established democracies (twenty-eight of thirty-three)are in

uppermiddle or upperincome countries.But among the low to lower middle income
countries there are actually more presidential(three) than parliamentary(two) sys-
tems. Fifteen of the parliamentarydemocracies are found in Europe or other high
income countries such as Canada,Israel, and Japan.It is likely that these countries
would have been democraticbetween 1972 and 1994 had they had presidentialcon-
stitutions.So some of the success of parliamentarydemocracy is accidental:in part
because of the evolution of constitutionalmonarchiesinto democracies, the region
of the world that democratizedand industrializedfirst is overwhelminglypopulated
with parliamentarysystems.
Very small countriesmay have an advantagein democraticstability because they
typically have relatively homogeneouspopulationsin ethnic, religious, and linguis-
tic terms, thereby attenuatingpotential sources of political conflict. We classified
countries as micro (populationunder 500,000), small (500,000 to 5,000,000), and
medium to large (over 5,000,000), using 1994 populationdata. Table 3 groups our
thirty-threelong establisheddemocraciesby populationsize. Here, too, parliamen-
tary systems enjoy an advantage.None of the five micronationswith long estab-
lished democracieshas a presidentialsystem.
The strong correlationbetween British colonial heritageand democracyhas been
widely recognized.Reasons for this associationneed not concernus here, but possi-
bilities mentionedin the literatureincludethe tendencyto traincivil servants,the gov-
ernmentalpracticesand institutions(which include but can not be reducedto parlia-
mentarism)createdby the British,and the lack of controlof local landedelites over

Table 3 PopulationSize of ContinuousDemocracies,1972-1994(numberof countriesin

eachcategory)

Population Parliamentary Presidential Other

Under 500,000 4 0 1
500,000to 5,000,000 7 2 0
Over5,000,000 11 4 5
total 22 6 5

457
ComparativePolitics July 1997

the colonial state.16Nine of the thirty-threelong establisheddemocracieshad British

colonial experience. Among them, eight are parliamentaryand one is presidential.
Here,too, backgroundconditionshave been more favorableto parliamentarysystems.
It is not our purpose here to analyze the contributionsof these factors to democ-
racy;rather,we wanted to see if these factorscorrelatedwith regime type. If a back-
Table4 Independent Countries
ThatWereDemocratic
forat LeastTenYears(ButLessThan
as
Twenty-three) of 1994
Inc. level Pop. size Parliamentary Presidential Other

Low/lower- Micro Belize (1981)

middle Dominica (1978)
Kiribati(1979)
St. Lucia (1979)
St. Vincent (1979)
Solomons (1978)
Tuvalu (1978)
Vanuatu(1980)
Small PapuaNew Guinea
(1975)
Medium/ India (1979) Bolivia (1982)
Large Brazil (1985)
Ecuador(1979)
El Salvador(1985)
Honduras (1980)
Middle Micro Antigua and Barbuda
(1981)
Grenada(1985)
St. Kitts-Nevis
(1983)
Small
Medium/ Greece (1974) Argentina(1983) Portugal'(1976)
Large Uruguary(1985)
Upper Micro Bahamas(1973)
Small
Medium/ Spain (1977)
Large
Numbersin parentheses
give thedatewhenthetransition
to democracytookplaceor thedate
of independence
forformercoloniesthatwerenotindependentas of 1972.
Note: 1. Portugalhas a premier-presidentialsystem
Countriesthathavebecomeindependent
fromBritainora BritishCommonwealth
statesince
1945: Belize, Dominica, Kiribati,St. Lucia, St. Vincent, Solomons, Tuvalu, Vanuatu,Papua
New Guinea,India,AntiguaandBarbuda,
Grenada,St. Kitts-Nevis,Bahamas

458
 Scott Mainwaringand MatthewJ. Shugart

groundconditionthat is conducive to democracyis correlatedwith parliamentarism,

then the superiorrecord of parliamentarismmay be more a product of the back-
groundcondition than the regime type.
Table 4 shows twenty-fouradditionalcountriesthathad been continuouslydemo-
craticby the same criteriaused in Table 1, only for a shortertime period (at least ten
years). Together,Tables 1 and 4 give us a complete look at contemporarydemocra-
cies that have lasted at least ten years.
There are three strikingfacts aboutthe additionalcountriesin Table 4. First,they
include a large numberof microstatesthat became independentfrom Britain in the
1970s and 1980s, and all of them are parliamentary.All seven presidentialdemoc-
racies but only three of the sixteen parliamentarydemocracies are in medium to
large countries(see Table 5). All sixteen of the democracieslisted in Tables 1 and 4
with populationsunder one-half million (mostly island nations) are parliamentary,
as are eight of ten democracieswith populationsbetween one-half and five million.
In contrast,no presidentialsystems are in microstates,and many are in exception-
ally large countries,such as Argentina,Brazil, and the United States.
Second, with Table 4 the numberof presidentialdemocracies increases substan-
tially. Most are in the lower and lower middle income categories,and all are in Latin
America. Table 6 summarizesthe income status of the newer democracieslisted in
Table 4. Clearly, not all of parliamentarism'sadvantagestems from the advanced
industrialstates. Even in the lower to upper middle income categories, there are
more parliamentarysystems (twenty-one if we combine Tables 1 and 4, compared
to eleven presidentialsystems). However, every one of the parliamentarydemocra-
cies outside of the high income category is a formerBritish colony. The only other
democracies in these income categories are presidential,and all but Cyprus are in
Latin America.
Thus, if the obstacles of lower income (or other factors not considered here) in
Latin America continue to cause problems for the consolidationof democracy, the
number of presidentialbreakdownscould be large once again in the future. More
optimistically, if Latin American democracies achieve greater success in consoli-
dating themselves this time around, the number of long established presidential
democracieswill grow substantiallyin the future.

Table 5 PopulationSize of ContinuousDemocracies,1985-1994(numberof countriesin

eachcategory)

Population Parliamentary Presidential Other

Under500,000 12 0 0
500,000to 5,000,000 1 0 0
Over5,000,000 3 7 1
total 16 7 1

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ComparativePolitics July 1997

Table6 IncomeLevelsof Continuous

Democracies,1985-1994(numberof countriesin each
category)
PerCapitaGNPin US$ Parliamentary Presidential Other
0-2555 10 0 0
2556-7910 4 5 1
Over 7911 2 2 0
total 16 7 1

Similarly, if British colonial heritage and small populationsize are conducive to

democracy,parliamentarismhas a built-in advantagesimply because Britaincolon-
ized many small island territories.As a rule, British colonies had local self-govern-
ment, always on the parliamentarymodel, before independence."Further,if other
aspects of Latin American societies (such as extreme inequality across classes or
regions) are inimical to stable democracy,then presidentialismhas a built-in disad-
vantage.
In sum, presidentialismis more likely to be adopted in Latin America and in
Africa than in other partsof the world, and these parts of the world have had more
formidableobstacles to democracy regardlessof the form of government.In con-
trast,parliamentarismhas been the regime form of choice in most of Europeand in
formerBritish colonies (a large percentageof which are microstates),where condi-
tions for democracy have generally been more favorable. Thus, the correlation
between parliamentarismand democraticsuccess is in parta productof where it has
been implemented.

Advantages of Presidential Systems

Presidentialsystems afford some attractivefeaturesthat can be maximized through

careful attentionto constitutionaldesign. These advantagespartiallyoffset the lia-
bilities of presidentialism.

Greater Choice for Voters Competingclaims to legitimacy are the flipside of one
advantage.The direct election of the chief executive gives the voters two electoral
choices instead of one - assuming unicameralism,for the sake of simplicity of
argument.Having both executive and legislative elections gives voters a freerrange
of choices. Voters can support one party or candidate at the legislative level but
anotherfor the head of government.

Electoral Accountability and Identification Presidentialism affords some

advantagesfor accountabilityand identifiability.Electoralaccountabilitydescribes

460
 Scott Mainwaringand MatthewJ. Shugart

the degree and means by which elected policymakersare electorally responsible to

citizens, while identifiabilityrefers to voters' ability to make an informed choice
prior to elections based on their ability to assess the likely range of postelection
governments.
The more straightforwardthe connection between the choices made by the elec-
torateat the ballot box and the expectationsto which policymakersare held can be
made, the greaterelectoral accountabilityis. For maximizing direct accountability
between voters and elected officials, presidentialismis superiorto parliamentarism
in multipartycontextsbecause the chief executive is directlychosen by popularvote.
Presidents(if eligible for reelection) or their partiescan be judged by voters in sub-
sequentelections. Having both an executive and an assembly allows the presidential
election to be structuredso as to maximize accountabilityand the assembly election
so as to permitbroadrepresentation.
One objection to presidentialism'sclaim to superior electoral accountabilityis
that in most presidentialsystems presidentsmay not be reelected immediately,if at
all. The electoral incentive for the president to remain responsive to voters is
weakened in these countries,and electoralaccountabilitysuffers. Bans on reelection
are deficiencies of most presidentialsystems, but not of presidentialismas a regime
type. Direct accountabilityto the electorateexists in some presidentialsystems, and
it is always possible underpresidentialgovernment.If, as is often the case, the con-
stitutionbans immediatereelectionbut allows subsequentreelection,presidentswho
aspire to regain their office have a strong incentive to be responsive to voters and
thereby face a mechanism of electoral accountability.Only if presidentscan never
be reelected and will become secondary(or non) players in nationaland partypoli-
tics after their terms are incentives for accountabilityvia popularelection dramati-
cally weakened.Even where immediatereelectionis banned,voters can still directly
hold the president'spartyaccountable.
Underparliamentarism,with a deeply fragmentedparty system the lack of direct
elections for the executive inevitablyweakens electoral accountability,for a citizen
can not be sure how to vote for or againsta particularpotentialhead of government.
In multipartyparliamentarysystems, even if a citizen has a clear notion of which
parties should be held responsible for the shortcomingsof a government,it is often
not clear whethervoting for a certainpartywill increasethe likelihood of excluding
a partyfrom the governingcoalition. Governmentsoften change between elections,
and even after an election parties that lose seats are frequentlyinvited to join gov-
erning coalitions.
Strom used the term "identifiability"to denote the degree to which the possible
alternativeexecutive-controllingcoalitionswere discernibleto voters before an elec-
tion.'8Identifiabilityis high when voters can assess the competitorsfor controlof the
executive and can make a straightforwardlogical connectionbetween theirpreferred
candidateor partyand their optimal vote. Identifiabilityis low when voters can not

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predicteasily what the effect of their vote will be in terms of the composition of the
executive, either because postelection negotiationswill determinethe natureof the
executive, as occurs in multipartyparliamentarysystems, or because a large field of
contenders for a single office makes it difficult to discern where a vote may be
"wasted"and whethervoting for a "lesser-of-evils"might be an optimal strategy.
Strom's indicatorof "identifiability"runs from O to 1, with 1 indicating that in
100percentof a given nation's post-WorldWarII elections the resultinggovernment
was identifiableas a likely resultof the election at the time voters went to the polls.
The average of the sample of parliamentarynations in Western Europe from 1945
until 1987 is .39, that is, most of the time voters could not know for which govern-
ment they were voting. Yet undera parliamentaryregime voting for an MP or a party
list is the only way voters can influence the choice of executive. In some parlia-
mentarysystems, such as Belgium (.10), Israel (.14), nd Italy (.12), a voter could
rarelypredictthe impactof a vote in parliamentaryelections on the formationof the
executive. The formationof the executive is the resultof parliamentarynegotiations
among many participants.Therefore,it is virtuallyimpossible for the voter, to fore-
see how best to supporta particularexecutive.
In presidentialsystems with a pluralityone roundformat,identifiabilityis likely
to approach1.00 in most cases because voters cast ballots for the executive and the
numberof significant competitorsis likely to be small. Systems in which majority
run-off is used to elect the presidentare different,as three or more candidatesmay
be regardedpriorto the first roundas serious contenders.When pluralityis used to
elect the presidentand when congressionaland presidentialelections are held con-
currently,the norm is for "serious"competition to be restrictedto two candidates
even when there is multipartycompetition in congressional elections. Especially
when the electoral method is not majorityrun-off, presidentialismtends to encour-
age coalition buildingbefore elections, thus clarifyingthe basic policy options being
presentedto voters in executive elections and simplifying the voting calculus.
Linz has respondedto the argumentthatpresidentialismengendersgreateridenti-
fiabilityby arguingthatvoters in most parliamentarysystems can indeed identify the
likely prime ministers and cabinet ministers."9By the time individuals approach
leadershipstatus, they are well known to voters. While his rejoinderis valid on its
face, Linz is using the term "identifiability"in a differentmannerfrom Stromor us.
He is speakingof voters' ability to identify personnelratherthangovernmentteams,
which, as we have noted, may not be at all identifiable.

Congressional Independence in Legislative Matters Because representativesin

a presidentialsystem can act on legislation without worryingabout immediatecon-
sequences for the survival of the government, issues can be considered on their
merits ratherthan as mattersof "confidence"in the leadershipof the rulingpartyor
coalition. In this specific sense, assembly members exercise independentjudgment

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on legislative matters.Of course, this independenceof the assembly from the exec-
utive can generatethe problemof immobilism.This legislative independenceis par-
ticularlyproblematicwith highly fragmentedmultipartysystems, where presidents'
parties typically are in the minority and legislative deadlock more easily ensues.
However, where presidentsenjoy substantialassembly support,congressionaloppo-
sition to executive initiativescan promoteconsensus building and can avoid the pas-
sage of ill-consideredlegislation simply to preventa crisis of confidence. The immo-
bilism feared by presidentialism'sdetractorsis the flip side of the checks and bal-
ances desiredby the United States' founding fathers.
Congressionalindependencecan encouragebroadcoalition buildingbecause even
a majority president is not guaranteed the unreserved support of partisans in
congress. In contrast,when a prime minister's party enjoys a majority,parliamen-
tary systems exhibit highly majoritariancharacteristics.Even a party with less than
a majorityof votes can rule almost uncheckedif the electoralsystem "manufactures"
a majorityof seats for the party. The incentive not to jeopardize the survival of the
governmentpressures members of parliamentwhose parties hold executive office
not to buck cabinetdirectives.Thus, presidentialismis arguablybetterable thanpar-
liamentarismto combine the independenceof legislators with an accountableand
identifiable executive. If one desires the consensual and often painstakingtask of
coalition building to be undertakenon each major legislative initiative, ratherthan
only on the formationof a government,then presidentialismhas an advantage.

Variations among Presidential Systems

Linz's critique is based mostly on a generic category of presidential systems. He

does not sufficientlydifferentiateamong kinds of presidentialism.As Linz acknowl-
edges, the simple dichotomy, presidentialismversus parliamentarism,while useful
as a startingpoint, is not sufficient to assess the relative merits of differentconstitu-
tional designs.
Presidentialismencompasses a range of systems of government, and variations
within presidentialismare important.Presidentialsystems vary and their dynamics
change considerably according to the constitutionalpowers of the president, the
degree of partydiscipline, and the fragmentationof the party system.

Presidential Powers The dynamics of presidential systems vary according to

presidents' formal powers. Some constitutions make it easier for the president to
dominatethe political process, while others make it more difficult.
One way to think of presidentiallegislative powers is in terms of the relationship
of the exercise of power to the legislative status quo.20 Powers that allow the presi-
dent to attempt to establish a new status quo may be termed proactive. The best

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example is decree power. Those that allow the president to defend the status quo
against attempts by the legislative majority to change it may be termed reactive
powers.
The veto is a reactive legislative power thatallows the presidentto defend the sta-
tus quo by reactingto the legislature's attemptto alter it, but it does not enable the
presidentto alter the status quo. Provisions for overridingpresidentialvetoes vary
from a simple majority,in which case the veto is very weak, to the almost absolute
veto of Ecuador,where no bill other than the budget can become law without pres-
idential assent (but congress can demanda referendumon a vetoed bill).
In a few constitutionsthe presidentmay veto specific provisions within a bill. In
a truepartialveto, also known as an item veto, presidentsmay promulgatethe items
or articles of the bill with which they agree, while vetoing and returningto congress
for reconsiderationonly the vetoed portions. A partialveto strengthenspresidents
vis-ai-viscongress by allowing them to block the parts of a bill they oppose while
passing those parts they favor; the presidents need not make a difficult choice of
whetherto accept a whole bill in orderto win approvalfor those partsthey favor.
Severalpresidentshave the rightof exclusive introductionof legislative proposals
in certainpolicy areas. Often this exclusive power extends to some critical matters,
most notably budgets, but also military policy, the creation of new bureaucratic
offices, and laws concerningtariff and creditpolicies. This power is also reactive. If
presidentspreferthe statusquo to outcomes likely to win the supportof a veto-proof
majorityin congress, they can preventchanges simply by not initiatinga bill.
A proactivepower lets presidentsestablisha new statusquo. If presidentscan sign
a decree thatbecomes law the momentit is signed, they have effectively established
a new statusquo. Relatively few democraticconstitutionsallow presidentsto estab-
lish new legislation without first having been delegated explicit authorityto do so.
Those that confer this authoritypotentiallyallow presidentsto be very powerful.
Decree power alone does not let presidentsdominatethe legislative process. They
can not emit just any decree, confident that it will survive in congress. But it lets
them shape legislation and obtain laws that congress on its own would not have
passed. Even though a congressional majority can usually rescind decrees, presi-
dents can still play a majorrole in shaping legislation for three reasons:unlike a bill
passed by congress, a presidentialdecree is alreadylaw, not a mere proposal,before
the other branch has an opportunityto react to it; presidents can overwhelm the
congressional agenda with a flood of decrees, making it difficult for congress to
considermeasuresbefore theireffects may be difficult to reverse;and presidentscan
use the decree power strategically,at a point in the policy space where a congres-
sional majorityis indifferentbetween the status quo and the decree:
A case can be made thatpresidentialsystems generally functionbetterif the pres-
ident has relatively limited powers over legislation. When the congress is powerful
relativeto the president,situationsin which the presidentis shortof a majorityin the

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congress need not be crisis-ridden.If the presidenthas great legislative powers, the
ability of the congressto debate,logroll, and offer compromiseson conflictualissues
is constrained.The presidency takes on enormous legislative importance,and the
incumbenthas formidableweapons with which to fine tune legislation and limit con-
sensus building in the assembly. It is probably no accident that some of the most
obvious failures among presidential democracies have been systems with strong
presidentialpowers.

Presidentialism and Party Discipline Linz properly argues that parliamentary

systems function better with disciplined parties. We believe that some measure of
party discipline also facilitates the functioning of presidential systems. Parties in
presidential systems need not be extremely disciplined, but indiscipline makes it
more difficult to establish stable relationshipsamong the government,the parties,
and the legislature.Presidentsmust be able to work with legislatures,for otherwise
they are likely to face inordinate difficulties in governing effectively. Moderate
partydiscipline makes it easier for presidentsto work out stable deals with congress.
Where discipline is weak, party leaders can negotiate some deal, only to have the
party's legislative membersback out of it. Presidentsmay not even be able to count
on the supportof their own party.Underthese conditions,presidentsare sometimes
forced to rely on ad hoc bases of support,frequentlyneeding to work out deals with
individuallegislatorsand faction leadersratherthannegotiatingprimarilywith party
leaders who deliver the votes of their copartisans.This situationcan be difficult for
presidents,and it encouragesthe widespreaduse of patronageto secure the support
of individuallegislators.
With more disciplined parties, presidents can negotiate primarily with party
leaders, which reduces the number of actors involved in negotiations and hence
simplifies the process. Party leaders can usually deliver the votes of most of their
members, so there is greaterpredictabilityin the political process.

Party Systems and Presidentialism Linz notes that the problemsof presidential-
ism are compoundedin nationswith deep political cleavages and numerouspolitical
parties. This argumentcould be taken further:the perils of presidentialismpertain
largely to countrieswith deep political cleavages and/ornumerouspolitical parties.
In countrieswhere political cleavages are less profoundand where the party system
is not particularlyfragmented,the problemsof presidentialismare attenuated.Many
presidentialdemocracieseitherhave deep political cleavages or many parties;hence
Linz's arguments about the problems of presidentialismare often pertinent. But
some presidentialsystems have less indelibly engravedcleavages and less partysys-
tem fragmentation.In these cases, presidentialismoften functions reasonablywell,
as the United States, Costa Rica, and Venezuela suggest. One way of easing the
strainson presidentialsystems is to take steps to avoid high party system fragmen-
tation.21

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ComparativePolitics July 1997

Significant party system fragmentationcan be a problem for presidentialism

because it increases the likelihood of executive-legislative deadlock. With extreme
multipartism,the president'spartywill not have anythingclose to a majorityof seats
in congress, so the presidentwill be forced to rely on a coalition. Interpartycoali-
tions, however, tend to be more fragile in presidentialsystems thanwith parliamen-
tarism.22
Whereasin parliamentarysystems partycoalitions generallyare formed after the
election and are binding for individuallegislators, in presidentialsystems they often
are formedbefore the election and are not binding past election day. The parties are
not corresponsiblefor governing, even though membersof severalpartiesoften par-
ticipate in cabinets. Governingcoalitions in presidentialsystems can differ marked-
ly from electoral coalitions, whereas in parliamentarysystems the same coalition
responsible for creating the governmentis also responsible for governing. Parties'
supportduringthe electoral campaigndoes not ensure their supportonce the presi-
dent assumes office. Even though members of several parties often participatein
cabinets,the partiesare not responsiblefor the government.Partiesor individualleg-
islators can join the opposition without bringing down the government,so a presi-
dent can end his or her term with little supportin congress.
Second, in presidentialsystems the commitmentof individual legislators to sup-
portan agreementnegotiatedby the partyleadershipis often less secure than in most
parliamentarysystems. The extension of a cabinet portfolio does not necessarily
imply party supportfor the president,as it usually does in a parliamentarysystem.
In contrast, in most parliamentarysystems individual legislators are more or less
bound to support the government unless their party decides to drop out of the
governmentalalliance. MPs risk bringingdown a governmentand losing their seats
in new elections if they fail to supportthe government.23
The problemsin constructingstable interpartycoalitions makethe combinationof
extreme multipartismand presidentialismproblematicand help explain the paucity
of long establishedmultipartypresidentialdemocracies.At present,Ecuador,which
has had a democracyonly since 1979, and a troubledone at that, is the world's old-
est presidentialdemocracy with more than 4.0 effective parties. Only one country
with this institutionalcombination,Chile from 1932 to 1973, sustained democracy
for at least twenty-five consecutive years. This combinationis manageable,but not
optimal.
Where party system fragmentationis moderate (under 4.0 effective parties),
building and maintaininginterpartycoalitions are easier.24The president's party is
certainto be a majorone that controls a significant share of the seats. This situation
mitigates the problem of competing claims to legitimacy because many legislators
are likely to be the president'scopartisans.Conflicts between the legislatureand the
executive tend to be less grave than when the overwhelmingmajorityof legislators
is pitted against the president.

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The problems of the fixed term of office are also mitigatedby limited party sys-
tem fragmentation.The fixed termof office is particularlyperniciouswhen the pres-
ident can not get legislation passed. This problem is more likely when the presi-
dent's party is in a distinct minority. It is no coincidence that the oldest and most
establishedpresidentialdemocracies- the U.S., Costa Rica, and Venezuela (from
1973 to 1993) - have two or two-and-one-halfpartysystems. Six of the seven pres-
idential democracies that have lasted at least twenty-five consecutive years (Uru-
guay, Colombia, and the Philippines, in addition to the three already mentioned
cases) have had under three effective parties. Chile is the sole exception. Extreme
multipartismdoes not doom presidentialdemocracies,but it does make their func-
tioning more difficult.

Electoral Rules for Presidentialism Other things being equal, presidentialsys-

tems function better with electoral rules or sequences that avoid extreme multi-
partism, though it is best to avoid draconian steps that might exclude politically
importantgroups, for such an exclusion could underminelegitimacy.25Partysystem
fragmentationcan be limited even with proportionalrepresentationby either of two
factors: most important,by having concurrentpresidentialand legislative elections
and a single roundpluralityformatfor electing the president,and by establishinga
relatively low district magnitude or a relatively high threshold for congressional
elections.
Holding assembly elections concurrentlywith the presidentialelection results in
a strongtendency for two majorpartiesto be the most importanteven if a very pro-
portionalelectoral system is used, as long as the presidentis not elected by majority
run-off.26The presidentialelection is so importantthat it tends to divide voters into
two camps, and voters are more likely to choose the same party in legislative elec-
tions than when presidentialand legislative elections are nonconcurrent.
If assembly elections are held at differenttimes from presidentialelections, frag-
mentation of the assembly party system becomes more likely. In some cases the
party systems for congress and president diverge considerably, and presidents'
parties have a small minority of legislators. Therefore, with presidentialismcon-
currentelections are preferable.
The increasinglycommon majorityrun-off methodfor electing presidentshas the
advantageof avoiding the election of a presidentwho wins a narrowpluralitybut
who would easily lose to anothercandidatein a face to face election. Majorityrun-
off is appealing because it requiresthat the eventual winner obtain the backing of
more than 50 percent of the voters. However, the run-off system also encourages
fragmentationof the field of competitorsfor both presidency and assembly. Many
candidatesenterthe first roundwith the aim of either finishing second and upsetting
the frontrunnerin the run-offor else "blackmailing"the two leading candidatesinto
making deals between rounds. The pluralityrule, in contrast,encourages only two

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"serious"contendersfor the presidency in most cases. Other mechanisms besides

straightpluralitycan guardagainst the unusual but potentially dangerouscase of a
winner's earningless than 40 percentof the vote. Such mechanisms include requir-
ing 40 percentfor the front-runneror a minimumgap between the top two finishers
instead of requiringan absolute majorityto avoid a run-off and employing an elec-
toral college in which electors are constitutionallybound to choose one of the top
two popularvote winners.
If the presidentis elected so as to maximize the possibility of two candidateraces
and a majority(or nearly so) for the winner, the assembly can be chosen so as to
allow the representationof partisandiversity.Extremefragmentationneed not result
if only a moderatelyproportionalsystem is used and especially if the assembly is
elected at the same time as the presidentand the presidentis not elected by majority
run-off.Proportionalrepresentationcan permitthe representationof some important
minor partieswithout leading to extreme fragmentation.

Switching from Presidential to Parliamentary Government: A Caution

Convinced that parliamentarysystems are more likely to sustain stable democracy,

Linz implicitly advocates switching to parliamentarygovernment.We are less than
sanguineaboutthe results of shifting to parliamentarygovernmentin countrieswith
undisciplinedparties.Undisciplinedpartiescreate dauntingproblems in parliamen-
tary systems.27In countries with undisciplinedparties, switching to parliamentary
governmentcould exacerbateproblemsof governabilityand instabilityunless party
and electoral legislation was simultaneouslychanged to promotegreaterdiscipline.
In parliamentarysystems, the governmentdepends on the ongoing confidence of
the assembly. Where individualassembly membersact as free agents, unfetteredby
party ties, the governmentalmajorities that were carefully crafted in postelection
negotiations easily dissipate. Free to vote as they please, individual legislators
abandonthe governmentwhen it is politically expedient to do so. Under these con-
ditions, the classic Achilles heel of some parliamentarysystems, frequentcabinet
changes, is likely to be a problem.
Linz counterarguesthat presidentialism has contributed to party weakness in
some Latin American countries, so that switching to parliamentarygovernment
should strengthen parties by removing one of the causes of party weakness.
Moreover, analysts might expect that the mechanism of confidence votes would
itself promotepartydiscipline, since remainingin office would hinge upon partydis-
cipline. We do not dismiss these claims, but in the short term switching to parlia-
mentarygovernmentwithout effecting parallel changes to encourage greaterparty
discipline could prove problematic.
Any switch to parliamentarygovernment, therefore, would need to carefully

468
 Scott Mainwaringand MatthewJ. Shugart

design a panoplyof institutionsto increasethe likelihood that it would functionwell.

In presidential and parliamentarysystems alike, institutionalcombinations are of
paramountimportance.28

Conclusion

While we greatly admireLinz's seminal contributionand agree with parts of it, we

believe that he understatedthe importanceof differences among constitutionaland
institutionaldesigns within the broadcategory of presidentialsystems and in doing
so overstatedthe extent to which presidentialismis inherentlyflawed, regardlessof
constitutionaland institutionalarrangements.Presidentialsystems can be designed
to function more effectively than they usually have. We have arguedthat providing
the president with limited legislative power, encouraging the formationof parties
thatare reasonablydisciplined in the legislature,and preventingextreme fragmenta-
tion of the partysystem enhance the viability of presidentialism.Linz clearly recog-
nizes that not any kind of parliamentarismwill do. We make the same point about
presidentialism.
Undersome conditionsthe perils of presidentialismcan be attenuated,a point that
Linz underplays.It is importantto pay attentionto factorsthat can mitigatethe prob-
lems of presidentialismbecause it may be politically more feasible to modify presi-
dential systems than to switch to parliamentarygovernment.
We have also arguedthat presidentialism,particularlyif it is carefully designed,
has some advantagesover parliamentarism.In our view, Linz does not sufficiently
consider this point. Moreover, on one key issue - the alleged winner-takes-all
natureof presidentialism- we question Linz's argument.The sum effect of our
argumentsis to call more attentionto institutionalcombinationsand constitutional
designs and to suggest that the advantagesof parliamentarismmay not be as pro-
nounced as Linz argued.Nevertheless, we sharethe consensus thathis pathbreaking
article was one of the most importantscholarlycontributionsof the past decade and
deserves the ample attentionamong scholars and policymakers that it has already
received.

NOTES

We are grateful to Michael Coppedge, Steve Levitsky, Arend Lijphart,Timothy Scully, and two
anonymousreviewers for helpful criticisms of earlierdraftsof this article.
1. We follow Lijphart'sunderstandingof a Westminster(British) style democracy.Arend Lijphart,
Democracies.: Patterns of Majoritarian and Consensus Governmentin Twenty-OneCountries (New
Haven: Yale University Press, 1984), esp. pp. 1-20. For our purposes, the most importantfeaturesof a

469
ComparativePolitics July 1997

Westminsterdemocracyare single party majoritycabinets, disciplinedparties, something approachinga

two partysystem in the legislature,and pluralitysingle memberelectoral districts.
2. See Adam Przeworski et al., "What Makes Democracies Endure?,"Journal of Democracy, 7
(January1996), 39-55.
3. MatthewShugartand JohnCarey,Presidentsand Assemblies: ConstitutionalDesign and Electoral
Dynamics (New York: CambridgeUniversity Press, 1992), ch. 2.
4. JuanJ. Linz, "Presidentialor ParliamentaryDemocracy:Does It Make a Difference?,"in Juan J.
Linz and ArturoValenzuela, eds., The Crisis of Presidential Democracy: TheLatin AmericanEvidence
(Baltimore:The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1994), p. 7; Juan J. Linz, "The Perils of Presidential-
ism," Journal of Democracy, 1 (Winter 1990).
5. Ibid., pp. 9-10.
6. Ibid., p. 18.
7. Linz, "Presidentialor ParliamentaryDemocracy,"p. 19.
8. Lijphart,ch. 6.
9. Linz, "Presidentialor ParliamentaryDemocracy,"pp. 47, 46.
10. Donald L. Horowitz, "ComparingDemocratic Systems," Journal of Democracy, 1 (Fall 1990),
73-79; and George Tsebelis, "Decision Making in Political Systems: Veto Players in Presidentialism,
Parliamentarism,Multicameralismand Multipartyism,"BritishJournal of Political Science, 25 (1995),
289-325.
11. Assuming that the partyremainsunited. If it does not, it may oust its leaderand change the prime
minister, as happenedto MargaretThatcherin Britain and Brian Mulroney in Canada.However, such
intrapartyleadershipcrises are the exception in majoritarian(Westminster)parliamentarysystems.
12. A possible exception in Westminstersystems is occasional minority government,which is more
common than coalition governmentin such systems. Even then, the governmentis as likely to call early
elections to attemptto convert its pluralityinto a majorityas it is in response to a vote of no confidence.
13. Linz, "Presidentialor ParliamentaryDemocracy,"p. 15.
14. Using an average of 3 on both measureswould have eliminatedthree countries(India and Colom-
bia in Table 1 and Vanuatuin Table 3) thatwe consider basically democraticbut that have had problems
with protectingcivil rights, partlybecause of a fight against violent groups.
15. Robert A. Dahl, Polyarchy: Participation and Opposition (New Haven: Yale University Press,
1973), pp. 62-80; Kenneth Bollen, "Political Democracy and the Timing of Development,"American
Sociological Review, 44 (August 1979), 572-87; LarryDiamond,"Economic Developmentand Democ-
racy Reconsidered,"in GaryMarksand LarryDiamond,eds., ReexaminingDemocracy:Essays in Honor
of SeymourMartinLipset (Newbury Park:SAGE, 1992), pp. 93-139; Seymour MartinLipset et al., "A
ComparativeAnalysis of the Social Requisitesof Democracy,"InternationalSocial Science Journal, 45
(May 1993), 155-75.
16. Larry Diamond, "Introduction:Persistence, Erosion, Breakdown, and Renewal," in Larry
Diamond, Juan J. Linz, and Seymour Martin Lipset, eds., Democracy in Developing Countries:Asia
(Boulder:Lynne Rienner, 1989); Myron Weiner,"EmpiricalDemocraticTheory,"in Myron Weinerand
Ergun Ozbudun, eds., CompetitiveElections in Developing Countries (Washington, D.C.: American
EnterpriseInstitute, 1987); Dietrich Rueschemeyer, Evelyne Huber Stephens, and John D. Stephens,
CapitalistDevelopmentand Democracy (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1992).
17 Some British colonies later adopted presidentialsystems and did not become (or remain) demo-
cratic. However, in many cases democracywas ended (if it ever got underway)by a coup carriedout by
the prime ministerand his associates. Not presidentialdemocracies,but parliamentaryproto-democracies
broke down. Typical was the Seychelles. The failure of most of these countries to evolve back into
democracycan not be attributedto presidentialism.
18. KaareStrom,MinorityGovernmentand MajorityRule (Cambridge:CambridgeUniversity Press,
1990).

470
 Scott Mainwaringand MatthewJ. Shugart

19. Linz, "Presidentialor ParliamentaryDemocracy,"pp. 10-14.

20. MatthewShugart,"Strengthof Partiesand Strengthof Presidents:An InverseRelationship"(forth-
coming).
21. Przeworski,et al., "WhatMakes Democracies Endure?,"found that the combinationof presiden-
tialism and a high degree of partysystem fragmentationwas unfavorableto stable democracy.
22. Arend Lijphart,"Presidentialismand MajoritarianDemocracy:TheoreticalObservations,"in Linz
and Valenzuela, eds.
23. The key issue here is whetheror not partiesare disciplined, and nothing guaranteesthat they are
in parliamentarysystems. Nevertheless, the need to supportthe government serves as an incentive to
party discipline in parliamentarysystems that is absent in presidentialsystems. See Leon Epstein, "A
ComparativeStudy of CanadianParties,"AmericanPolitical Science Review, 58 (March 1964), 46-59.
24. The numberof effective partiesis calculatedby squaringeach party's fractionalshare of the vote
(or seats), calculatingthe sum of all of the squares,and dividing this numberinto one.
25. Arturo Valenzuela, "PartyPolitics and the Crisis of Presidentialismin Chile: A Proposal for a
ParliamentaryFormof Government,"in Linz and Valenzuela, eds., pp. 91-150.
26. Shugartand Carey; Mark P. Jones, Electoral Laws and the Survival of Presidential Democracy
(Notre Dame: University of Notre Dame Press, 1995).
27. Giovanni Sartori,"NeitherPresidentialismnor Parliamentarism,"'in Linz and Valenzuela, eds.,
28. James W. Ceaser, "In Defense of Separationof Powers,"in RobertA. Goldwin and Art Kaufman,
eds., SeparationofPowers: Does It Still Work?(Washington,D.C.: AmericanEnterpriseInstitute,1986),
pp. 168-93.

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