2de-3de bach TEW

Transport Economics
Samenvatting

Q
uickprinter
Koningstraat 13
2000 Antwerpen
www.quickprinter.be

172 4.50 EUR

10.Demandfortransport
1. Introduction
Whatistransportmodelling?

- Mathematicalrepresentationandsimplificationofreality;forecastsandestimations
- Focusonkeyrelationshipsandavailabledata
- Passengertransport
- Freighttransport
- Combinationofpassengerandfreighttransport
- Tomakeforecasts
- Policyguidance,inputtocostͲbenefitanalysis,resultsareinputtobusinessplan(ifusedand
interpretedcorrectly)
- Instrumentformakingdecisions

Î Thischapter:analysisandforecastsoftransportdemand,withadistinctionbetween
passengerandfreighttransport.
їPurpose:toprovideascientificinsightintothedeterminantsofmobilitygrowth
+toolformakingconditionalforecastsoftransportdemandlevels.
Suchforecastscanhelpusevaluatetheexpectedconsequencesofalternativetransport
scenariosandstrategies.
Î Focus:numberofempiricalstudiesinordertoillustratethelevelofmobilitygrowth.

Researchintotransportdemand:largelymodelͲbased(+mostempiricalstudiesareconcernedwith
passengertransport)їthreetypesofmodels:

1) ClassicalfourͲstagemodels:
x Oftenusedinurbantransportstudies
x Mostlyusesaggregatedata
2) MicroeconomicapproachoftravelͲchoicebehaviour:
x Supportedbytherandomutilitytheory
x Travellerbehaviourisexplainedmostlyatindividuallevel
3) ActivityͲbasedapproach:
x TravelisdayͲtoͲdaybehaviour(travelpatterns)relatedtoandderivedfrom
variationsinlifestyleandthedegreeofactiveparticipation

Passengerdemandmodels:assumptionthatindividualtravellersmaximisetheirutility.
Freightdemandmodels:transportfirmsstrivetominimisecosts.
Î Produceraimsformaximisationofproductionatagivencostlevel
andminimisationofcostsatagivenproductionlevel.





2. Aggregatemodels

2.1 TheMethodologicalFramework

Transportplanningprocessїbasedonmodelling.Differentcomponentsoftravelortransport
behaviour(decisionsyouhavetomake):

x Decisionofwhetherornottotravelortohavefreighttransportedtoacertaindestination
x Choiceofdestination
x Choiceoftransportmode
x Choiceofroute
Î Transportuserwilltakethesedecisionssimultaneously,intransportdemandmodelsthey
areusuallyconsideredinsequence.Outputofeachphase=inputforthenextphase.
Î Tripmatrix:aschemeconsistingoffourconsecutivephases.

Î xij:numberoftripsfromzoneitozonej
Ri:totalamountoftrafficdepartingfromzoneiRi=σூ௝ୀଵ xij
Kj:totalamountoftrafficarrivinginzonejKj=σூ௜ୀଵ xij

 X:numberofpassengerstransportedintheareastudied(sumofallrowtotalsandsumofall
 columntotals).X=σ௜ Riσ௝ Kj

Foursequentiallevelsofdemanddetermination:

x Tripgeneration:
o determinationofthetotaltransportquantityXaswellastherowandcolumntotals
KjandRi,ortheincomingandoutgoingtrafficperregion
x Tripdistribution:
o DistributionoftherowandcolumntotalsKjandRiovertheseparateflowsxij
betweenthezones
x Modalsplit:
o Determinationoftheshareofthemodesinthetrafficflowsxij
x Ifrequired:trafficconversion
o Translatethetrafficflowsintothecorrespondingnumberoftrips.
 x Assignmenttoinfrastructure:
o Choiceofroutefortransportationbyeachofthemodes,sothatonecandetermine
thetrafficburdenontheinfrastructurenetwork.


Î Maybetranslatedintoatablespecifyingtherequiredinputandoutput:
Model Input Output
1Tripgeneration ͲGeographicaldistributionofpopulation Outgoingtraffic(Ri)
ͲLocationofeconomicactivities Incomingtraffic(Kj)
Ͳ…
2Tripdistribution ͲOutputtripgeneration Trafficflowsxij
ͲTransportcosts
Ͳ…
3Modalsplit ͲOutputtripdistribution Modalshares
ͲCostsandrates
ͲTraveltimes
Ͳ…
4Assignment ͲOutputmodalsplit Assignmenttoinfrastructure
ͲTimesavingsanddistancesavings
Ͳ…

Î Thesefourlevelsofdemanddeterminationcorrespondtofoursuccessiveoperational
phases.
Î Foreachphasethereisasubmodelthatexplainspartofthedemandprocess.Thesecanbe
usedtoresolvespecifictransportissues.







2.2 TripGeneration
Purpose:topredictthenumberoftripswithoriginanddestinationineachofthezones.Starting
fromrowtotals,howthesetotalswillevolveinthefuture.

2.2.1 Tripgenerationinpassengertransport
Determiningfactors(ofnumberofpassengerstravellingtoandfromazone):
x Numberofinhabitantsandtherelatedfactorshouseholdsizeandcomposition
x Carownership
x Employment
x Income
x Distanceofvariouscentresofactivity

7typesoftrip:
1) Homeїwork
2) Workїhome
3) Homeїshopping
4) Shoppingїhome
5) HomeїotherdesƟnaƟons
6) Otherdestinationsїhome
7) HomeтoriginordesƟnaƟon
Î Foreachofthesetypesoftrip,separateestimationsaremadeonthebasisofanappropriate
methodology.

Travelbehaviourofapassenger:functionofhisdestination.

x HomeͲbasedworktripsїmadeonaregularanddailybasis,usuallyduringthemorning
and/oreveningrushͲhour.
~tripsbetweenhomeandschool
x Shoppingtripsїnotregular,otherexplanatoryfactors(locationoflargeshoppingcentres,
changingpurchasingpatterns)
Forsocialandrecreationaltrips,adifferentapproachisrequired.

Thepredictionmethod=functionofthetypeoftripstudied

x Fixedratiobetweennumberoftripsandexplanatoryvariable
o E.g.homeͲbasedworktrips:fixedratiobetweennumberoftripsontheonehand
andthesizeofthepopulationandtheemploymentrateontheotherhand.
o Sumofincomingtraffic=sumofoutgoingtraffic,ifnot:correction(inthisexample
theywillusuallycorrectthecolumntotalsasdemographicevolutioniseasierto
predictthanemploymenttrends).
Î CanonlybeusedforhomeͲbasedworktraffic
x Othertypesoftrips:othermethodsofforecasting
o Regressionanalysisorcategoryanalysis








Regressionanalysis=rowtotalsareestimatedusingthisequation:

Î Thecoefficientsa,b1,b2,…,bnareestimatedonthebasisofobservations.Theyrepresent
theeffectofthepopulationsize,thecarfleet,income,…onthetotalnumberoftripsleaving
thezone.
Î Calculatedtotalsforeachrowandcolumnarebalancedbyacorrectioncoefficient.

Categoryanalysis:

Î Divideshouseholdsintoanumberofcategoriesonthebasisofsuchcharacteristicsas
householdincome,carownership,thenumberofemployedindividuals.
Thetripsareassignedtoeachcategoryonthebasisofobservationsinthebaseyear.
Î Themethodisessentiallybasedontheassumptionthathouseholdswithequal
characteristicsproduceanequalnumberoftrips.
Î Predictionofthenumberoftripsbymultiplyingtheaveragenumberoftripsbythenumber
ofhouseholdsandbysummatingoverthedifferentcategories.
Î ZoneͲbasedapproach:zonalcharacteristicswillbeemployedasvariables.

2.2.2 Tripgenerationinfreighttransport

FreighttrafficgenerationїdeterminedbytherelaƟonshipbetweentransportacƟvityand
economicactivity.
Î Onetriestoidentifyanindirectrelationbetweenthevolumeandthestructureoffreight
transport,andthelevelandthestructureofeconomicactivities.
Demandfortransportisderived:transportisonlynecessarywhengoodsareproducedand
consumedindifferentlocations.

Desiredmodeloutputforfreight:

x Arepresentationofthetotalincomingandoutgoingtrafficforanumberofzones
x Abreakdownoftheseresultsoveranumberofgoodscategories
Î Tripgenerationinacertainzonewilldependuponthenatureandlevelofeconomicactivity
inthatzone(supplyofgoods)
Î Trafficattractionwilldependuponthesamefactorsandmorespecificfinaldemandsfactors
(demandforcommodities)



Sameapproachasinpassengertransport:
x E.g.onecanexplaintherowtotalsonthebasisofemploymentorthevalueaddedinthe
zone,andthecolumntotalsonthebasisofoverallspending.
Youobtainbetterresultsifyouderivetherowandcolumntotalsdirectlyfromproductionand
consumptionfiguresforthegoodsconcerned.Eg:rowtotal=proportionaltotheproductionofa
good,whereasthecolumntotal=proportionaltotheconsumption(bybothhouseholdsandfirms)of
thatgood.Sumrowtotals=sumcolumntotals!

2.3 Tripdistribution

Determinationoftheseparatetrafficflowsfromzonetozone.AlltransportͲattractingzonesare
competingwitheachotherfortripscomingfromzonei(tripͲgeneratingzone).

2.3.1 Distributionofpassengertraffic

Distribution:concernstheestimationoftransportvolumesmovingbetweenallzonesiandj,
wherebyirepresentsthetripͲgeneratingzoneandjrepresentsthetripͲattractingzone.

Î Assumption:changeispredictedinoverallemploymentandthesizeoftheworking
population,butwithzonalvariation(newrowandcolumntotalsRiandKj).
Î Howlargearethenewseparateflowsxij?

Determinetripdistributionїvariousmethods:

x Thegrowthfactormethodandsyntheticapproach

THEGROWTHFACTORMETHOD

x Growthfactorsareappliedtotheexistingdistributionpatternasrepresentedinthetrip
matrix.
x Numberofvariationsdependingonthegrowthfactors
o Detroitfactormethod
x Newtrafficflowsaredeterminedby:


o Alltrafficflowsofrowiaremultipliedbyagrowthfactorri
o Alltrafficflowsofcolumnjaremultipliedbyagrowthfactorkj
o Alltrafficflowsaredividedbythegeneralgrowthfactorr.
x Factorsri,kj,andraredeterminedinsuchawaythatthenewtrafficflowsadduptothe
givenrowandcolumntotals.
 x Howaregrowthfactorsdetermined?


x Calculationofflows:






Criticalremarks:
x Noaccountistakenofchangingtransportcosts
x Themethodcannotbeappliedifoldtrafficflowsareunknown
x Nonewzonescanbeincorporatedandnozonecanbesubdivided
x Unreliableifzoneissmallandrapidlyexpanding
x Forecastingoffuturetrafficflowsdoesnottakeaccountofchangesintraveldemand
broughtaboutbynetworkchanges.

THESYNTHETICMETHOD
~AnanalogueofNewton’slawofgravitationalattraction:
Î Theforceofattractionbetween2zones(iandj)isassumedtobeproportionaltothemassof
zoneiandthemassofzonej,andtobeinverselyproportionaltothedistancesquared.
Mathematical:


Î OiandDj:measuresofthegenerativeandattractivecharacteristicsoftheoriginand
destinationlocalitiesїdividedinto2categories:
Î Proxyvariables:aroughmeasuresuchaspopulationsize
Î Exactvariables:inthecaseoftrafficbetweenthehomeandtheworkplace;the
workingpopulationandthenumberofjobs.

Gravitymodelcanalsobestatedmoregenerally:


Î Thegeneralfunctionalformf(Cij)remainstobespecifiedempiricallyanddoesnotneedto
adopttheform1/Cßij.

Oi=RiandDj=Kj
Probabilitythatatripcorrespondstorowi=Ri/X
Probabilitythatatripcorrespondstocolumnj=Kj/X
Probabilitythatatripfallsontheconnectionwithinzonesi–j=(Ri/X)–(Kj/X)
 
Î Thisspecificationisbasedonastatisticalprediction.
Î Assumingthatthetransportcostdoesnotchangeandtrafficflowsonlychangethrough
changesintherowandcolumntotals,theabovevariantalsoallowsonetointerpretthe
Detroitgrowthfactormodel.

Anothervariantofthepoolmodelemployscorrectioncoefficientsdeterminedinsuchawaythat
thecalculatedtrafficflowsadduptothegivenrowandcolumntotals.


Î !StrongresemblancewithDetroitmodel,includingtheiterations!!

Anotherformulation:thenumberoftripsbetweenzonesiandjisnotonlyaffectedbythecoston
therelationshipconcerned,alsobythecostoftravellingfromitoanotherdestination(v).


Î Typicalexampleofamultiplegravitymodel.


2.3.2 Distributioninfreighttransport

Allmethodsapplyingtothedistributionofpassengertrafficmaybeappliedinthiscasetoo.
CostͲminimizingdistributionmethods:methodsthatarespecificallydesignedforfreighttransport.
Î Thetrafficflowsaredeterminedinsuchawaythattheyadduptotherowandcolumntotals
and,underthisrestriction,resultinthelowestpossibletransportcosts.



 Î Cij=transportcostspertonneoffreighttransportedfromzoneitozonej
Xij=tonnagetransportedfromitoj
Î Representsalinearprogrammingproblem,withalinearobjectivefunctionandlinear
restrictions.

2.4 Modalsplit

Theestablishmentoftheshareofeachmodeinthetrafficflows.Intheshortterm,itcanresultinan
efficientuseofexistingcapacity.Inthelongterm,therewillbeimplicationsforanyreplacementor
expansioninvestmentsinthetransportsystem.

2.4.1 Themodalsplitinpassengertraffic
Thequestionarisesoftravellers’choicebetweenvariousmodesoftransportation.

Amodalchoicemodelisconcernedwiththebehaviouroftravellerswithregardtotheselectionof
transportmodes.

Themodalchoiceoftravellersisdeterminedby3explanatoryfactors:

1) Thesocioeconomicstatusofthetraveller
x Carownership:peopleowningacarwilltendtouseitunderallcircumstances
x Income:nonͲcarownersonahighincomewillusetaxismoreoftenandthoseona
lowincomewouldrathertravelbytramorbybus.(‘whitecollarͲbluecollar’)
x Age:peopleundertheageof18andabovetheageof60makelessfrequentuseof
thecar.
x Householdcomposition
2) Thenatureofthetrip
x Lengthofthetrip:longdistancesїnegativeimpactoncarͲuseandpositiveimpact
onthemodalshareofrailandairtravel
x Motivationfortravelling:carisusedlessfrequentlyfortravellingbetweenthehome
andworkorschoolthanitisforshopping.
3) Thecharacteristicsofalternativemodes
x Differenceintraveltime:thegreaterthedifference,themorelikelythatatraveller
willoptforthequickestmode.
Totaltraveltimeconsistsofthreecomponents:inͲvehicletime,walkingtimeand
waitingtime(lattertwo=excesstime).
x Differenceincost:modalchoicebetweenthecarandpublictransportisinfluenced
byoutͲofͲpocketsexpenses(=coststhatyoupayimmediatelyorthecoststhatyou
regardasmoreorlessproportionaltothedistancecovered)

2.4.2 Themodalsplitinfreighttransport
=goodsflowpertransportmodeundervariousmarketconditions.

Thefactorsthatdeterminethemodalsplitinfreighttransportmaybedividedintothreecategories:

1) Aspectsregardingthedistributor(goods)
1) Thecategoryofthegoods
2) Railtransportandinlandnavigationareimportantmodesfortransportationofgoods
witharelativelylowvalueperunitofweight.Roadtransportdominatesintheother
categories.
3) Batchsize,time,frequency,ownershipofvehicles,networkconnections

 2) Characteristicsofthetrip
1) Distance
2) Averagedistancecoveredpertonneisthehighestinrailtraffic
3) Characteristicsofthetransportsupply
1) Priceandreliabilityofthecompetingmodes
2) Riskofdamageandloss
3) Competitiveposition=sumtotalofallelementsdeterminingthemodalchoice.


2.5 Trafficconversion

Itgivesaninsightintotheequivalentnumberoftripspermode.

Trafficconversionmodelsїallowsyoutoconverttransportflowsintoloadedtrips.
Thisposes2problems:
1) Itdoesnotsufficetocalculatethenumberoftripspermodeoneachgeographical
relationship.
2) Oneneedstodeterminethenumberofemptytrips(partofthetotalnumberoftrips).
Î Trafficconversioninvolves2operations:
Î conversionoftrafficflowsintermsoftonnesintoloadedtripspercapacitycategory
Î thedeterminationofthenumberofemptytripspercapacitycategory

2.6 Assignmenttoinfrastructure

Modalsplitoffersinsightintothetrafficflowspermodefromzonetozone.
Trafficconversionoffersinsightintothecorrespondingnumberoftrips.

Î Howtoassigntheseflowstoexistinginfrastructure?

Assignmentprocess:twophases
x Determinationofthealternativeroutes
x Assignmentofthemovementstoroutes

2methodstoassigntraffictoavailableinfrastructure:

1) AllͲorͲnothingmethodinvolveschoosingonesingleroutefortheentiretrafficflow.Maybe
combinedwithfeedback.
x E.g.theshortestorcheapestroute
2) Diversioncurvemethod:shareofvariousroutesisinfluencedinagradual,continuous
mannerbydifferencesintermsoftime,distance,cost,etc.


 Î Functionoftraveltimeanddistancesavedcomparedtoanalternativeroute.
Î Allpointsona60%Ͳcurvearemorefavourablethanthoseona50%Ͳcurve.
Î Feedbackcanbeusedtocalculatethetrafficdensityandensuingspeed,ifneeded:reassign
untilastableequilibriumisreached.

Slide24–36??

3. ThemicroeconomicapproachtotransportǦchoicebehaviour

Unitsofobservationandanalysis:individualsorhouseholds(ratherthanzones).

Î Takesaccountofwhoactuallymakesthetransportdecision.Thereforetheycanrespond
moreefficientlytotransportpatterns.
Î Modelsbasedonindividualchoice,eg:discretechoicemodels
Î Modelsbasedonutilitymaximisationofeachindividual

Importantdataproblem:

x MostobservedcharacteristicsofthedecisionͲmaker(carownership,income,etc.)are
available,whileotherdata(socialstatus,health,etc.)isunknown.
x Mostcharacteristicsofthealternatives(traveltimes,costs,etc.)willbeknown,whileothers
(reliability,degreeofcomfort)maybeunknown.

Basicmodel(utilitymodel):


Assumptionconcerningthedistributionoftheerrorterm(Œ):
x Iftheerrorsaredistributedinaccordancewiththeextremevaluedistribution,thenone
arrivesatthemultinomiallogitmodel.
x Iftheerrorsaredistributednormally,onearrivesatamultinomialprobitmodel.

Themultinomiallogitmodel:
Allowseasycomputationandinterpretation
x Choiceprobability:

Î Inourexample:


x Howtoestimatetheß’s?
o MaximumLikelihoodEstimator:estimatorthatcalculatestheparametersforwhich
theobservedchoicesismostlikelytohaveoccurred.
o Alsocalled:LogͲlikelihoodestimationaslogͲlikelihoodismaximized


Othermodels:

BestͲknowngeneralisationofamultinomiallogitmodel:







Mixedmultinomiallogitmodel:

JointͲchoicemodels(discreteͲcontinuousmodels):
Adiscretechoice(destination)iscombinedwithanadditionaldiscreteorcontinuouschoice(the
quantityshipped).

Therehavebeenmanyadvancesinmodeltypesduringthelastyearsduetotheincreasingpowerof
computers.
Probit:inthepastmoredifficulttocalculatebutnowtherearenoproblemsanymore.

Datacollection

Revealedpreferencedata:
x Datafromobservedchoicesinthemarket
x Advantage:realchoices
x Somedisadvantages:
o Sometimesnotallpossiblealternativesareknown
o Hypotheticalchoicescannotbetested
o Howpeople“perceive”characteristicsofchoicecannotbeincluded
o Datacollection(alotofobservationsareneeded;oftenonlyonechoiceperpersonis
registered)

Statedpreferencedata:
x Datafrominterviews/experiments
x Advantages:
o Newalternativescanbeincluded
o Onepersoncanmakenumerouschoices
x Somedisadvantages:
o Hypotheticalchoicesituations
o Choicesandcharacteristicsofalternativeshavetobedefinedinadvance






4. TheactivityǦbasedapproach

x Analysisoftransportbehaviourinthecontextofconsecutiveactivitiesofanindividualduring
acertainperiodatvaryinglocations
o E.g.studyofdailytransportactivities
x Emphasisonunderlyingderivednatureoftransport
x Morerealisticbutalsomorecomplex
x NeedtounderstandtherelationshipbetweenexogenoussocioͲdemographics&activity
travelenvironmentcharacteristicsontheonehandandrevealedactivityͲtravelpatternon
theother.
x Problem:datarequirement
o E.g.insightsintotravelandactivitypattern

Newgenerationofregionaltraveldemandmodelsischaracterisedby3features:
1) ActivityͲbasedapproach:travelderivedfromdailyactivitiesandpatternsbytheindividuals
2) TourͲbasedstructureoftravel
3) MicroͲsimulationmodellingtechniques:convertactivityandtravelͲrelatedchoicesintoa
seriesofdiscretedecisions

5. Anempiricalapplication:freighttransportinEurope

Anoverviewofthemostsignificantempiricalresultsofaneconometricmodelofdemandforfreight
transportinEurope:

Î Purpose:toputforwardapossiblemethodandtoshowhowempiricalresultscanbe
interpretedeconomicallyandusedformakingtransportprognoses.





11.Transportsupply
1. Introduction

Supply=f(productprice,pricesofalternativegoods,productionfactorprices,technology,etc.)
Twomethodsofcostanalysis:
Ͳ Statisticalmethod:usestimeͲseriesdataasabasisfordefiningafunctionthatcorresponds
maximallytoreality.
Ͳ Engineeringmethod:developmentofanalyticalmodelsonthebasisofproductionfunctions
thataredissectedintosuccessiveoperationssothatwecanuseaccountingdatatocalculate
aunitcostperoperation.
Thechoicedependsonthedataavailable:
Ifthecausalrelationshipisclearandit’spossibletoconductexperimentsÆEngineeringmethod
IfthedatabaseconsistsofhistoricalobservationsÆStatisticalmethod


2. Output,inputs,heterogeneityandcalculation
2.1. Theoutputunitintransport

2measurementsofoutput:
x Inpassengertransport:
o Numberofpassengers
o PassengerͲkilometres
x Infreighttransport:
o Tonnage
o NumberoftonneͲkilometres
ThereisownͲaccounttransportwhichisfreighttransportforpersonaluse.Eg:abigcompanythat
providesitsowntransportforproducedgoodsÙProfessionaltransport=transportcompanies.

Sometimestheyaggregatetheoutputindicators.Howeverthisonlyworksforhomogenousunitsand
twomovementsareneveridenticalsotheaggregationisuseless.Forexample,twoshipments
carriedoutbythesamemode,onthesameoriginͲdestinationrelationmaydifferfromoneanother
becausetheyoccurredatdifferenttimesduringtheday,soweatherconditionsmaybedifferent.
Thereforethemodesplitisveryimportant.

 
Outputpervehicle:It’sdecreasing.Howcanweincreasethetonpercar?Pricingmeasuresarethe
mostefficientandhavealmostnonegativeimpact.Ifyouwantmore,youwillpaymore.


     
LinkwiththeGDP(graph)
Timeline:Strongrelationbetweentheeconomyandtransport.Freetimeistheleastaffectedbythe
crisisbecausethepeoplestillgoonholidays,whereasbusinessmenmaytravellessduringthecrisis.
Howeverthereisnotalwaysastrongcorrelationbetweeneconomyandtransport.



Valueadded:Theevolutionofvalueaddedoftransportindifferentdomains.Itcontainsallthe
activitiesthatareincludedintheprocessoftransportation(logistic,packaging,etc.).


2.2Inputsintheproductionoftransport
Nooutput,withoutinput

2inputs:labourandcapital
1. Labour;numberofstaffandnumberofhoursworked.Thephysicalunitsoflabourthatone
aggregatesmustbeashomogenousaspossible.Forexample,asimplemeasurethatisbased
onthenumberofemployeesdoesnottakeintoaccountthenumberofhoursworkedorthe
qualityoftheworkperformed.

2. Capital;numberofvehicles,infrastructure(differsfromonemodeoftransporttoanother;
inland navigation and road transport do not own their infrastructure, whereas railway and
pipelinetransportdo),leasingandbuying.
Î Thefactorcapitalgivesusmeasurementproblemsataggregatelevel:thecapitalservice
providedisimportant,notcapitalstock!Capitalservicesarehardtomeasurebecause
theyareonlypartlyhired,mostitemsarepurchased.Thereforetheytakecapitalstockas
aproxyvariable,sincechangesinthelevelofstockwillmostlyreflectchangesinthe
levelofservicesemployed.

2.3Theheterogeneityoftransportationsupply

Theheterogeneityisreflectedinthe:
Ͳ Numberofavailablemodes(transportationtechniques)
Ͳ Varioustypesoftransportwithinasinglemode
Ͳ Companiesthatsupplytransportvehicles

Heterogeneity is related to the organisation of the transport market, which varies from mode to
mode,thecapitalthatisrequiredandthedifferentsubmarkets.Variousfactorsofheterogeneity:
x Transportcosts=costoftheactualtransport+additionalcostssuchasloading,packaging,
insurance,etc.ÆPrincipleofminimisationofthecosts.
x Goodspackage:Transportrequirementsaredifferent,eg:sandandgravel(lowvalue)willbe
transportedinbulkwhereasotherproductssuchasfoodandflowershavetobeshippedfast
sotheyrequireroadandairtransportation.

Generalqualityrequirementscrucialtothesupplystructure:sizeofthevehicle,speed,accessibility,
variabilityincapacity,flexibilityandspecialcharacteristicsregardingpackagingandriskofdamage.
Eachmodeoffersadifferentcombinationofthesequalityrequirementsandcompetesintermsof
qualityandprice.Consequently,thesupplywithinasinglemethodwillbecomemuchmore
specialised.

Heterogeneityisalsoevidentintheorganisationandstructureofthesupplyside:
Ͳ Irregulartransportservices:anoperatorkeepsafleetofvehiclesinreservesothatitcould
bedeployedwhenthereisdemand.Thereisnooperatingscheduleasordersareobtained
onanirregularbasis,eg:privatehauliers.
Ͳ Regulartransportservices:theykeeptheirfleetofvehiclesonthemoveaccordingtoafixed
schedule.Ordersareacceptediftheycanbefittedintothisschedule,eg:publictransport.


Also:
Ͳ Globalisationoftheproductionprocess(longerdistances)
Ͳ Growingcompetitionininternationaltrade(impactonvalueadded)
Ͳ Logisticchains:increasingcomplexity
Ͳ Interplayofmanyactors
Î Areanissuefortheheterogeneityofthesupply




Supportingactivities=logisticactivities=veryimportant!

“Thebigpartscansometimesnotbechanged,sothemodestpartsarealsoimportant,especiallyfor
changes.”
E.g.staffofanairportisaveryimportantfactor
ÆTheoverallperformanceisdeterminedbytheweaklinkofthechain.

Trends:
Ͳ Hubconcentration:increasingvesselsize(hub=aswitch/partinachain)eg:anincreasein
capacityfrom4.000to15.000containersleadstobiggerports,betterinfrastructure,etc.
Ͳ Dedicated terminals (special terminals) = a personal terminal for ships, to load and loss
faster.
Ͳ Stressonportproductivity
Ͳ Governmentbudgetrestrictions=lotsofinvestmentsareneededbutthereisnotenough
moneysoprivateoperatorsareneeded.
Ͳ Privatisation=duetobudgetrestrictionsofthegovernment.

2.4Costallocationinjointproductionprocesses.

Whichcostsofthecombinedproductionprocessneedtobeallocatedtoseparateproducts?The
differentiationconcernstimeandplace.

Temporalandspatialheterogeneity=economicheterogeneity:impliesthattheelasticityof
substitutionbetweentechnicallyhomogeneoustransportservicessometimesapproximatestozero.