Datastyle PDF

The Elements of Data
Analytic Style
A guide for people who want to
analyze data.
Jeff Leek
This book is for sale at http://leanpub.com/datastyle
This version was published on 2015-03-02
This is a Leanpub book. Leanpub empowers authors and

publishers with the Lean Publishing process. Lean
Publishing is the act of publishing an in-progress ebook
using lightweight tools and many iterations to get reader
feedback, pivot until you have the right book and build
traction once you do.
©2014 - 2015 Jeff Leek

An @simplystats publication.
Thank you to Karl Broman and Alyssa Frazee for
constructive and really helpful feedback on the first draft of
this manuscript. Thanks to Roger Peng, Brian Caffo, and
Rafael Irizarry for helpful discussions about data analysis.
Contents
1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
2. The data analytic question . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
3. Tidying the data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
4. Checking the data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
5. Exploratory analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
6. Statistical modeling and inference . . . . . . . . . 34
7. Prediction and machine learning . . . . . . . . . . 45
8. Causality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50
9. Written analyses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
10.Creating figures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
11.Presenting data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70
12.Reproducibility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79
13.A few matters of form . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85
14.The data analysis checklist . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87

CONTENTS
15.Additional resources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92
1. Introduction
The dramatic change in the price and accessibility of data
demands a new focus on data analytic literacy. This book is
intended for use by people who perform regular data analyses.
It aims to give a brief summary of the key ideas, practices, and
pitfalls of modern data analysis. One goal is to summarize
in a succinct way the most common difficulties encountered
by practicing data analysts. It may serve as a guide for
peer reviewers who may refer to specific section numbers
when evaluating manuscripts. As will become apparent, it is
modeled loosely in format and aim on the Elements of Style
by William Strunk.
The book includes a basic checklist that may be useful as a
guide for beginning data analysts or as a rubric for evaluating
data analyses. It has been used in the author’s data analysis
class to evaluate student projects. Both the checklist and this
book cover a small fraction of the field of data analysis, but the
experience of the author is that once these elements are mas-
tered, data analysts benefit most from hands on experience in
their own discipline of application, and that many principles
may be non-transferable beyond the basics.
If you want a more complete introduction to the analysis
of data one option is the free Johns Hopkins Data Science
Specialization¹.
As with rhetoric, it is true that the best data analysts some-
times disregard the rules in their analyses. Experts usually do
¹https://www.coursera.org/specialization/jhudatascience/1
Introduction 2
this to reveal some characteristic of the data that would be

obscured by a rigid application of data analytic principles.
Unless an analyst is certain of the improvement, they will
often be better served by following the rules. After mastering
the basic principles, analysts may look to experts in their
subject domain for more creative and advanced data analytic
ideas.
2. The data analytic
question
2.1 Define the data analytic
question first
Data can be used to answer many questions, but not all of
them. One of the most innovative data scientists of all time
said it best.
The data may not contain the answer. The com-

bination of some data and an aching desire for an
answer does not ensure that a reasonable answer
can be extracted from a given body of data.
John Tukey
Before performing a data analysis the key is to define the type

of question being asked. Some questions are easier to answer
with data and some are harder. This is a broad categorization
of the types of data analysis questions, ranked by how easy it
is to answer the question with data. You can also use the data
analysis question type flow chart to help define the question
type (Figure 2.1)
The data analytic question 4
Figure 2.1 The data analysis question type flow chart
2.2 Descriptive
A descriptive data analysis seeks to summarize the measure-
ments in a single data set without further interpretation. An
example is the United States Census. The Census collects data
on the residence type, location, age, sex, and race of all people
in the United States at a fixed time. The Census is descriptive
because the goal is to summarize the measurements in this
fixed data set into population counts and describe how many
people live in different parts of the United States. The inter-

pretation and use of these counts is left to Congress and the
public, but is not part of the data analysis.
2.3 Exploratory
An exploratory data analysis builds on a descriptive analysis
by searching for discoveries, trends, correlations, or rela-
tionships between the measurements of multiple variables to
generate ideas or hypotheses. An example is the discovery of a
four-planet solar system by amateur astronomers using public
astronomical data from the Kepler telescope. The data was
made available through the planethunters.org website, that
asked amateur astronomers to look for a characteristic pattern
of light indicating potential planets. An exploratory analysis
like this one seeks to make discoveries, but rarely can confirm
those discoveries. In the case of the amateur astronomers,
follow-up studies and additional data were needed to confirm
the existence of the four-planet system.
2.4 Inferential
An inferential data analysis goes beyond an exploratory anal-
ysis by quantifying whether an observed pattern will likely
hold beyond the data set in hand. Inferential data analyses are
the most common statistical analysis in the formal scientific
literature. An example is a study of whether air pollution
correlates with life expectancy at the state level in the United
States. The goal is to identify the strength of the relationship
in both the specific data set and to determine whether that
relationship will hold in future data. In non-randomized
experiments, it is usually only possible to observe whether

a relationship between two measurements exists. It is often
impossible to determine how or why the relationship exists - it
could be due to unmeasured data, relationships, or incomplete
modeling.
2.5 Predictive
While an inferential data analysis quantifies the relationships
among measurements at population-scale, a predictive data
analysis uses a subset of measurements (the features) to pre-
dict another measurement (the outcome) on a single person
or unit. An example is when organizations like FiveThir-
tyEight.com use polling data to predict how people will vote
on election day. In some cases, the set of measurements
used to predict the outcome will be intuitive. There is an
obvious reason why polling data may be useful for predicting
voting behavior. But predictive data analyses only show that
you can predict one measurement from another, they don’t
necessarily explain why that choice of prediction works.
2.6 Causal
A causal data analysis seeks to find out what happens to one
measurement if you make another measurement change. An
example is a randomized clinical trial to identify whether
fecal transplants reduces infections due to Clostridium di-
ficile. In this study, patients were randomized to receive a
fecal transplant plus standard care or simply standard care.
In the resulting data, the researchers identified a relationship
between transplants and infection outcomes. The researchers
were able to determine that fecal transplants caused a reduc-

tion in infection outcomes. Unlike a predictive or inferential
data analysis, a causal data analysis identifies both the mag-
nitude and direction of relationships between variables.
2.7 Mechanistic
Causal data analyses seek to identify average effects between
often noisy variables. For example, decades of data show
a clear causal relationship between smoking and cancer. If
you smoke, it is a sure thing that your risk of cancer will
increase. But it is not a sure thing that you will get cancer. The
causal effect is real, but it is an effect on your average risk. A
mechanistic data analysis seeks to demonstrate that changing
one measurement always and exclusively leads to a specific,
deterministic behavior in another. The goal is to not only
understand that there is an effect, but how that effect operates.
An example of a mechanistic analysis is analyzing data on
how wing design changes air flow over a wing, leading
to decreased drag. Outside of engineering, mechanistic data
analysis is extremely challenging and rarely undertaken.
2.8 Common mistakes
2.8.1 Correlation does not imply

causation
Interpreting an inferential analysis as causal.
Most data analyses involve inference or prediction. Unless a

randomized study is performed, it is difficult to infer why
there is a relationship between two variables. Some great

examples of correlations that can be calculated but are clearly
not causally related appear at http://tylervigen.com/¹ (Figure
2.2).
Figure 2.2 A spurious correlation
Particular caution should be used when applying words such

as “cause” and “effect” when performing inferential analysis.
Causal language applied to even clearly labeled inferential
analyses may lead to misinterpretation - a phenomenon called
causation creep².
2.8.2 Overfitting
Interpreting an exploratory analysis as predictive
A common mistake is to use a single, unsplit data set for both

model building and testing. If you apply a prediction model
to the same data set used to build the model you can only
estimate “resubstitution error” or “training set error”. These
estimates are very optimistic estimates of the error you would
get if using the model in practice. If you try enough models
on the same set of data, you eventually can predict perfectly.
¹http://tylervigen.com/
²http://junkcharts.typepad.com/numbersruleyourworld/causation-creep/
2.8.3 n of 1 analysis
Descriptive versus inferential analysis.
When you have a very small sample size, it is often impossible

to explore the data, let alone make inference to a larger
population. An extreme example is when measurements are
taken on a single person or sample. With this kind of data
it is possible to describe the person or sample, but generally
impossible to infer anything about a population they come
from.
2.8.4 Data dredging

Interpreting an exploratory analysis as inferen-
tial
Similar to the idea of overfitting, if you fit a large number

of models to a data set, it is generally possible to identify at
least one model that will fit the observed data very well. This
is especially true if you fit very flexible models that might
also capture both signal and noise. Picking any of the single
exploratory models and using it to infer something about the
whole population will usually lead to mistakes. As Ronald
Coase³ said:
“If you torture the data enough, nature will al-

ways confess.”
This chapter builds on and expands the paper “What is the

question?”⁴ co-authored by the author of this book.
³http://en.m.wikiquote.org/wiki/Ronald_Coase
⁴http://www.sciencemag.org/content/early/2015/02/25/science.aaa6146.full
3. Tidying the data
The point of creating a tidy data set is to get the data into a
format that can be easily shared, computed on, and analyzed.
3.1 The components of a data set

The work of converting the data from raw form to directly
analyzable form is the first step of any data analysis. It is
important to see the raw data, understand the steps in the
processing pipeline, and be able to incorporate hidden sources
of variability in one’s data analysis. On the other hand, for
many data types, the processing steps are well documented
and standardized.
These are the components of a processed data set:
1. The raw data.

2. A tidy data set.
3. A code book describing each variable and its values in
the tidy data set.
4. An explicit and exact recipe you used to go from 1 to 2
and 3.
3.2 Raw data

It is critical that you include the rawest form of the data that
you have access to. Some examples of the raw form of data
are as follows.
Tidying the data 11
1. The strange binary file your measurement machine

spits out
2. The unformatted Excel file with 10 worksheets the
company you contracted with sent you
3. The complicated JSON data you got from scraping the
Twitter API
4. The hand-entered numbers you collected looking through
a microscope
You know the raw data is in the right format if you ran no
software on the data, did not manipulate any of the numbers
in the data, did not remove any data from the data set, and
did not summarize the data in any way.
If you did any manipulation of the data at all it is not the raw
form of the data. Reporting manipulated data as raw data is
a very common way to slow down the analysis process, since
the analyst will often have to do a forensic study of your data
to figure out why the raw data looks weird.
3.3 Raw data is relative

The raw data will be different to each person that handles the
data. For example, a machine that measures blood pressure
does an internal calculation that you may not have access to
when you are given a set of blood pressure measurements. In
general you should endeavor to obtain the rawest form of the
data possible, but some pre-processing is usually inevitable.
Tidying the data 12
3.4 Tidy data

The general principles of tidy data are laid out by Hadley
Wickham in this paper¹ and this video². The paper and the
video are both focused on the R package, which you may
or may not know how to use. Regardless the four general
principles you should pay attention to are:
• Each variable you measure should be in one column

• Each different observation of that variable should be in
a different row
• There should be one table for each “kind” of variable
• If you have multiple tables, they should include a
column in the table that allows them to be linked
While these are the hard and fast rules, there are a number
of other things that will make your data set much easier to
handle.
3.5 Include a row at the top of

each data table/spreadsheet
that contains full row names.
So if you measured age at diagnosis for patients, you would
head that column with the name AgeAtDiagnosis instead of
something like ADx or another abbreviation that may be hard
for another person to understand.
¹http://vita.had.co.nz/papers/tidy-data.pdf
²https://vimeo.com/33727555
Tidying the data 13
3.6 If you are sharing your data

with the collaborator in Excel,
the tidy data should be in one
Excel file per table.
They should not have multiple worksheets, no macros should
be applied to the data, and no columns/cells should be high-
lighted. Alternatively share the data in a CSV or TAB-delimited
text file.
3.7 The code book

For almost any data set, the measurements you calculate will
need to be described in more detail than you will sneak into
the spreadsheet. The code book contains this information. At
minimum it should contain:
• Information about the variables (including units!) in the

data set not contained in the tidy data
• Information about the summary choices you made
• Information about the experimental study design you
used
In our genomics example, the analyst would want to know

what the unit of measurement for each clinical/demographic
variable is (age in years, treatment by name/dose, level of
diagnosis and how heterogeneous). They would also want to
know how you picked the exons you used for summarizing
the genomic data (UCSC/Ensembl, etc.). They would also
Tidying the data 14
want to know any other information about how you did the
data collection/study design. For example, are these the first
20 patients that walked into the clinic? Are they 20 highly
selected patients by some characteristic like age? Are they
randomized to treatments?
A common format for this document is a Word file. There
should be a section called “Study design” that has a thorough
description of how you collected the data. There is a section
called “Code book” that describes each variable and its units.
3.8 The instruction list or script

must be explicit
You may have heard this before, but reproducibility is kind of
a big deal in computational science. That means, when you
submit your paper, the reviewers and the rest of the world
should be able to exactly replicate the analyses from raw data
all the way to final results. If you are trying to be efficient, you
will likely perform some summarization/data analysis steps
before the data can be considered tidy.
3.9 The ideal instruction list is a

script
The ideal thing for you to do when performing summarization
is to create a computer script (in R, Python, or something else)
that takes the raw data as input and produces the tidy data
you are sharing as output. You can try running your script a
couple of times and see if the code produces the same output.
Tidying the data 15
3.10 If there is no script, be very

detailed about parameters,
versions, and order of
software
In many cases, the person who collected the data has incentive
to make it tidy for a statistician to speed the process of
collaboration. They may not know how to code in a scripting
language. In that case, what you should provide the statisti-
cian is something called pseudocode. It should look something
like:
• Step 1 - take the raw file, run version 3.1.2 of summarize

software with parameters a=1, b=2, c=3
• Step 2 - run the software separately for each sample
• Step 3 - take column three of outputfile.out for each
sample and that is the corresponding row in the output
data set
You should also include information about which system

(Mac/Windows/Linux) you used the software on and whether
you tried it more than once to confirm it gave the same
results. Ideally, you will run this by a fellow student/labmate
to confirm that they can obtain the same output file you did.
Tidying the data 16
3.11 Common mistakes
3.11.1 Combining multiple variables into

a single column
A common mistake is to make one column in a data set
represent two variables. For example, combining sex and age
range into a single variable. .
3.11.2 Merging unrelated data into a

single file
If you have measurements on very different topics - for
example a person’s finance and their health - it is often a
better idea to save each one as a different table or data set
with a common identifier.
3.11.3 An instruction list that isn’t

explicit
When an instruction list that is not a computer script is used,
a common mistake is to not report the parameters or versions
of software used to perform an analysis.
This chapter builds on and expands the book author’s data
sharing guide³.
³https://github.com/jtleek/datasharing
4. Checking the data
Data munging or processing is required for basically every
data set that you will have access to. Even when the data
are neatly formatted like you get from open data sources like
Data.gov¹, you’ll frequently need to do things that make it
slightly easier to analyze or use the data for modeling.
The first thing to do with any new data set is to understand
the quirks of the data set and potential errors. This is usually
done with a set of standard summary measures. The checks
should be performed on the rawest version of the data set you
have available. A useful approach is to think of every possible
thing that could go wrong and make a plot of the data to check
if it did.
4.1 How to code variables

When you put variables into a spreadsheet there are several
main categories you will run into depending on their data
type:
• Continuous
• Ordinal
• Categorical
• Missing
• Censored
¹http://www.data.gov/
Checking the data 18
Continuous variables are anything measured on a quantita-

tive scale that could be any fractional number. An example
would be something like weight measured in kg. Ordinal
data are data that have a fixed, small (< 100) number of
possible values, called levels, that are ordered. This could be
for example survey responses where the choices are: poor,
fair, good.
Categorical data are data where there are multiple categories,
but they aren’t ordered. One example would be sex: male or
female.
Missing data are data that are missing and you don’t know
the mechanism. You should use a single common code for all
missing values (for example, “NA”), rather than leaving any
entries blank.
Censored data are data where you know the missingness
mechanism on some level. Common examples are a measure-
ment being below a detection limit ora patient being lost to
follow-up. They should also be coded as NA when you don’t
have the data. But you should also add a new column to your
tidy data called, “VariableNameCensored” which should have
values of TRUE if censored and FALSE if not.
4.2 In the code book you should

explain why censored values
are missing.
It is absolutely critical to report if there is a reason you know
about that some of the data are missing. The statistical models
used to treat missing data and censored data are completely
different.
4.3 Avoid coding categorical or

ordinal variables as numbers.
When you enter the value for sex in the tidy data, it should
be “male” or “female”. The ordinal values in the data set
should be “poor”, “fair”, and “good” not 1, 2 ,3. This will avoid
potential mixups about which direction effects go and will
help identify coding errors.
4.4 Always encode every piece of

information about your
observations using text.
For example, if you are storing data in Excel and use a form
of colored text or cell background formatting to indicate
information about an observation (“red variable entries were
observed in experiment 1.”) then this information will not be
exported (and will be lost!) when the data is exported as raw
text. Every piece of data should be encoded as actual text that
can be exported. For example, rather than highlighting certain
data points as questionable, you should include an additional
column that indicates which measurements are questionable
and which are not.
4.5 Identify the missing value

indicator
There are a number of different ways that missing values can
be encoded in data sets. Some common choices are “NA”, “.”,
“999”, and “-1”. There is sometimes also a missing data indica-

tor variable. Missing values coded as numeric values like “-1”
are particularly dangerous to an analysis as they will skew
any results. The best ways to find the missing value indicator
are to go through the code book or to make histograms and
tables of common values. In the R programming language
be sure to use useNA argument to highlight missing values
table(x,useNA="ifany").
4.6 Check for clear coding errors

It is common for variables to be miscoded. For example, a
variable that should take values 0,1,2 may have some values
of 9. The first step is to determine whether these are missing
values, miscodings, or whether the scale was incorrectly
communicated. As an example, it is common for the male
patients in a clinical study to be labelled as both “men” and
“males”. This should be consolidated to a single value of the
variable.
4.7 Check for label switching

When data on the same individuals are stored in multiple
tables, a very common error is to have mislabled data. The
best way to detect these mislabelings are to look for logical
inconsistencies. For example if the same person is labeled as
“male” and “female” in two different tables, that is a potential
label switching or coding error.
4.8 If you have data in multiple

files, ensure that data that
should be identical across
files is identical
In some cases you will have the same measurements recorded
twice. For example, you may have the sex of a patient recorded
in two seperate data tables. You should check that for each
patient in the two files the sex is recorded the same.
4.9 Check the units (or lack of

units)
It is important to check that all variables you have take values
on the unit scale you expect. For example, if you observe
the people are listed at 180 inches tall, it is a good bet that
the measurement is actually in centimeters. This mistake
is so pervasive it even caused the loss of a mars satellite².
Histograms and boxplots are good ways to check that the
measurements you observe fall on the right scale.
4.10.1 Failing to check the data at all

A common temptation in data analysis is to load the data and
immediately leap to statistical modeling. Checking the data
before analysis is a critical step in the process.
²http://www.wired.com/2010/11/1110mars-climate-observer-report/
4.10.2 Encoding factors as quantitative

numbers
If a scale is qualitative, but the variable is encoded as 1, 2,
3, etc. then statistical modeling functions may interpret this
variable as a quantitative variable and incorrectly order the
values.
4.10.3 Not making sufficient plots

A common mistake is to only make tabular summaries of the
data when doing data checking. Creating a broad range of
data visualizations, one for each potential problem in a data
set, is the best way to identify problems.
4.10.4 Failing to look for outliers or

missing values
A common mistake is to assume that all measurements follow
the appropriate distribution. Plots of the distribution of the
data for each measured variable can help to identify outliers.
sharing guide³.
³https://github.com/jtleek/datasharing
5. Exploratory analysis
Exploratory analysis is largely concerned with summarizing
and visualizing data before performing formal modeling. The
reasons for creating graphs for data exploration are:
• To understand properties of the data

• To inspect qualitative features rather than a huge table
of raw data
• To discover new patterns or associations
5.1 Interactive analysis is the

best way to explore data
If you want to understand a data set you play around with it
and explore it. You need to make plots make tables, identify
quirks, outliers, missing data patterns and problems with the
data. To do this you need to interact with the data quickly.
One way is to analyze the whole data set at once using tools
like Hive, Hadoop, or Pig. But an often easier, better, and
more cost effective approach is to use random sampling . As
Robert Gentleman put it “make big data as small as possible
as quickly as possible”¹.
¹https://twitter.com/EllieMcDonagh/status/469184554549248000
Exploratory analysis 24
5.2 Plot as much of the actual

data as you can
These boxplots look very similar:
Figure 5.1 Boxplots that look similar
but if you overlay the actual data points you can see that they
have very different distributions.
Figure 5.2 Boxplots that look similar with points overlayed
Plotting more of the data allows you to identify outliers,

confounders, missing data, relationships, and correlations
much more easily than with summary measures.
5.3 Exploratory graphs and tables

should be made quickly
Unlike with figures that you will distribute, you are only
communicating with yourself. You will be making many
graphs and figures, the goal is speed and accuracy at the

expense of polish. Avoid spending time on making axis labels
clear or spending time on choosing colors. Find a color palette
and sizing scheme you like and stick with it.
5.4 Plots are better than

summaries
You can explore data by calculating summary statistics, for
example the correlation between variables. However all of
these data sets have the exact same correlation and regression
line².
Figure 5.3 Data sets with identical correlations and regression lines
²http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anscombe%27s_quartet
This means that it is often better to plot, rather than summa-

rize, the data.
5.5 For large data sets,

subsample before plotting
In general, most trends you care about observing will be
preserved in a random subsample of the data.
Figure 5.4 A large data set and a random subsample
5.6 Use color and size to check for

confounding
When plotting the relationship between two variables on a
scatterplot, you can use the color or size of points to check for
a confounding relationship. For example in this plot it looks
like the more you study the worse score you get on the test:
Figure 5.5 Studying versus score
but if you size the points by the skill of the student you see
that more skilled students don’t study as much. So it is likely
that skill is confounding the relationship
Figure 5.6 Studying versus score with point size by skill level
5.7 For multi-panel plots of the

same data type fix the axis
When making multiple plots of the same data type for com-
parison purposes, having varying axes will place the points
on different scales and make them difficult to interpret.
5.8 For multi-panel plots match

the comparison axis
If you are comparing two plots on their y-axis values, then the
plots should be side by side. If you are comparing the two plots
on their x-axis values the plots should be placed vertically on

top of each other.
5.9 Use log transforms to “spread

out” data with varying orders
of magnitude
Data measured across multiple scales will often be highly
skewed, with many values near zero. One way to “spread the
values out” is to take the log transform of the data. To avoid
zeros you can take log(data + c) where c is a small positive
constant. But be careful about interpreting the spread of the
data on the log scale.
5.10 Use log transforms for ratio

measurements
Taking the log of ratio-valued data will often make the
distribution more symmetric. Since the log of one is also zero,
values of zero on the log scale can be interpreted as equality
of the two values in the ratio.
5.11 When comparing two

measurements of the same
thing - use Bland Altman
plots
If you have two ways of measuring the same quantity and
you want to see if they agree, use a Bland-Altman plot³.
So instead of plotting x versus y, plot x+y versus x-y. Then
differences between the two variables will be on the y axis - so
you hope all the values will be near zero (Figure 5.7, adapted
from gismoskater97⁴). It also makes it easier to see if there are
magnitude effects, for example when small values of x and y
are more similar than large values of x and y.
Figure 5.7 A Bland-Alman Plot with confidence intervals
³http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bland%E2%80%93Altman_plot
⁴https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Bland-Altman_Plot.svg
5.12.1 Optimizing style too quickly

The goal is to quickly understand a data set, during ex-
ploratory data analysis speed is more important than style,
so tools that make beautiful graphics but take time should be
avoided.
5.12.2 False pattern recognition

One of the most common mistakes in exploratory data anal-
ysis is to identify and interpret a pattern without trying to
break it down. Any strong pattern in a data set should be
checked for confounders and alternative explanations.
5.12.3 Failing to explore data and

jumping to statistical tests
A common failure, particularly when using automated soft-
ware, is to immediately apply statistical testing procedures
and to look for statistical significance without exploring the
data first.
5.12.4 Failing to look at patterns of

missing values and the impact
they might have on conclusions.
Missing data are often simply ignored by statistical software,
but this means that if the missing data have informative pat-
terns, then analyses will ultimately be biased. As an example,
suppose you are analyzing data to identify a relationship

between geography and income in a city, but all the data from
suburban neighborhoods are missing.
6. Statistical modeling
and inference
The central goal of statistical modeling is to use a small
subsample of individuals to say something about a larger
population. The reasons for taking this sample are often the
cost or difficulty of measuring data on the whole population.
The subsample is identified with probability (Figure 6.1).
Figure 6.1 Probability is used to obtain a sample
Statistical modeling and inference are used to try to gener-

alize what we see in the sample to the population. Inference
involves two separate steps, first obtaining a best estimate for
what we expect in the population (Figure 6.2).
Statistical modeling and inference 35
Figure 6.2 The first step in inference is making a best estimate of what
is happening in the population
Inference is also used to quantify how uncertain we are about

the quantity we are estimating (Figure 6.3). This uncertainty
could be due to multiple sources including the fact that we
only have a sample of the population, the technology we
used to measure the data, or natural variation between the
individuals being measured. Good statistical models account
for all of these sources of variation.
Figure 6.3 The second step in inference is estimating how uncertain

we are about our estimate
6.1 When possible, perform

exploratory and confirmatory
analysis on separate data sets
If you plan to explore a data set for new relationships without
an a priori model or hypothesis, split your data into two
random subsamples. Perform exploration on the first part of
the data and confirm that any relationships you detect appear
in the second part at the end of your analysis. A typical split is
70% for discovery and 30% for validation. This splitting is ideal
it may lead to loss of power and may not always be possible.
6.2 Define the population,

sample, individuals and data
In a clinical trial, for example, you might say that the pop-
ulation is all people who might take a drug for diabetes.
The sample is the subset of people that we will enroll in the
trial, the individuals (sometimes called sampling units) are the
people in the trial, and the data are the measurements on the
people.
6.3 Identify reasons your sample

may not represent the
population
If you take a completely random sample from the population
it will be representative or it will be possible to understand
how it is not representative of the population. However, it is
often impossible to sample randomly from a population. So
people make samples based on convenience, cost, and time.
Be sure to report all reasons the sample may not represent the
population.
6.4 Identify potential

confounders
If you measure the shoe size and literacy of a random subsam-
ple of people from the United States, they will be correlated.
The reason is that young people are less literate than old
people and also have smaller shoes. Age is related to both lit-
eracy and shoe size and is a confounder for that relationship.
When you observe a correlation or relationship in a data set,
consider the potential confounders - variables associated with
both variables you are trying to relate.
6.5 Check the distribution of

missing data
Determine whether missing values are associated with any of
the variables you have in your data set. Associations detected
between two variables may be distorted if the presence of
missing values for one variable is correlated with the second.
6.6 Check for outliers

Values that are outside of the common range for a single vari-
able may lead to apparently large relationships in summary
statistics like correlations or regression coefficients.
6.7 Confirm that estimates have

reasonable signs and
magnitudes
If you observe that for every increase of one year in education
you get an estimate of $1,000,000 more dollars of yearly
income, it is likely there is a problem with the data set or
your analysis. Similarly if people who exercise more are
dramatically more obese than those who do not, it suggests
there may be a data problem.
6.8 Be careful of very small or

very large samples
In both very small and very large sets of data, estimates of
uncertainty should be used with caution. In very small data
sets there is not enough data to make an accurate measure
of uncertainty. In very large data sets, the measure of un-
certainty will be accurate, but the question may no longer
be how uncertain we are about estimates - we will be very
certain about them. In this case one can focus exclusively on
whether the value of the estimate is meaningful, or meaning-
fully different from some other value - rather than potential
uncertainties.
6.9 When performing multiple

hypothesis tests, correct for
multiple testing
Classic hypothesis tests are designed to call results significant
5% of the time, even when the null is true (e.g. nothing is going
on). One really common choice for correcting for multiple
testing is to use the false discovery rate¹ to control the rate at
which things you call significant are false discoveries. People
like this measure because you can think of it as the rate of
noise among the signals you have discovered. This error rate
is most widely used when there are potentially many true
discoveries.
Another common error rate is the family wise error rate²
¹http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_discovery_rate
²http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Familywise_error_rate
which is the probability of making even one false significant

call among all the tests you perform. The standard approach
to controlling the family wise error rate is the Bonferroni
correction.
More test results will be called significant with the false
discovery rate than with the family wise error rate, but the
significant results may include more false positives.
6.10 Smooth when you have data

measured over space,
distance, or time
This is one of the oldest ideas in statistics - regression is a form
of smoothing. I personally like locally weighted scatterplot
smoothing a lot. Some common smoothers are smoothing
splines³, moving averages, and loess⁴.
6.11 Know your real sample size

It can be easy to be tricked by the size of a data set. Imagine
you have an image of a simple black circle on a white back-
ground stored as pixels. As the resolution increases the size
of the data increases, but the amount of information may not
(hence vector graphics). Similarly in genomics, the number
of reads you measure (which is a main determinant of data
size) is not the sample size, it is the number of individuals. In
social networks, the number of people in the network may not
³http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smoothing_spline
⁴http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Local_regression
be the sample size. If the network is very dense, the sample

size might be much less. In general the bigger the sample size
the better and sample size and data size aren’t always tightly
correlated.
6.12 Common errors
6.12.1 Failing to account for

dependencies
If data are measured across time, across space they will likely
be dependent. Before performing inference each variable
should be plotted versus time to detect dependencies, and sim-
ilarly for space. Similarly, identifying potential confounders
should occur before model fitting.
6.12.2 Focusing on p-values over

confidence intervals
P-values can be a useful measure of statistical significance if
used properly. However, a p-value alone is not sufficient for
any convincing analysis. A measure of inference on a scien-
tific scale (such as confidence intervals or credible intervals)
should be reported and interpreted with every p-value.
6.12.3 Inference without exploration

A very common mistake is to move directly to model fitting
and calculation of statistical significance. Before these steps,
it is critical to tidy, check, and explore the data to identify
dataset specific conditions that may violate your model as-
sumptions.
6.12.4 Assuming the statistical model fit

is good
Once a statistical model is fit to data it is critical to evaluate
how well the model describes the data. For example, with a
linear regression analysis it is critical to plot the best fit line
over the scatterplot of the original data, plot the residuals, and
evaluate whether the estimates are reasonable. It is ok to fit
only one statistical model to a data set to avoid data dredging,
as long as you carefully report potential flaws with the model.
6.12.5 Drawing conclusions about the

wrong population
When you perform inference, the goal is to make a claim
about the larger population you have sampled from. However,
if you infer to the wrong population or if the population
changes after you take your sample, all of your results will
be biased (Figure 6.4). A recent example is when Google
Flu trends created a prediction algorithm to predict flu cases
based on search terms. When people started searching differ-
ently, the prediction algorithm broke down⁵.
⁵http://gking.harvard.edu/files/gking/files/0314policyforumff.pdf
Figure 6.4 If you infer to the wrong population bias will result.
6.12.6 Not addressing uncertainty

If you report an estimate without a measure of uncertainty,
then you are claiming that you know the exact value of that
parameter. For example, if you report the average height of
men in the United States is 5’8” based on your analysis with no
measure of uncertainty, then you are claiming you measured
the height of every man in the United States and know the
exact value.
6.12.7 Identifying real correlations you

don’t care about
In many cases, it is possible to identify two variables that
are really correlated due to a confounder or some spurious
relationship. A common example is the relationship between
ice cream sales and murder in large cities. This correlation is
real and reproducible across cities, but is due to the fact that
high temperatures lead to both more murders and more ice

cream sales. While this correlation is real, it isn’t one you
care about. This is related to the problem of not reporting
confounders.
7. Prediction and
machine learning
The central idea with prediction is to take a sample from
a population - like with inference - and create a training
data set. Some variables measured on the individuals in the
training set are called features and some are outcomes. The
goal of prediction is to build an algorithm or prediction
function that automatically takes the feature data from a new
individual and makes a best guess or estimate about the value
of the outcome variables (Figure 7.1).
Figure 7.1 How prediction works

Prediction and machine learning 46
7.1 Split the data into training

and validation sets
Before performing any analysis at all, split the data into
training and validation sets. A typical split is 70% in training
and 30% in validation. Then put the validation data set aside
and ignore it until the very end. Once you have finalized
all parts of your model, apply it once and only once to the
validation data set to estimate the real error rate of your
prediction algorithm.
7.2 Identify reasons your sample

may not represent the
population
If you take a completely random sample from the population
it will be representative. However, it is often impossible to
sample randomly from a population. So people make samples
based on convenience, cost, and time. If the sample used
to create the training set differs from the population then
prediction functions will fail. An example is when Google
Flu trends used search terms to try to predict flu outbreaks.
When people started using search terms differently and the
population changed, the prediction algorithm failed¹.
¹http://gking.harvard.edu/files/gking/files/0314policyforumff.pdf
7.3 More data usually beats

better algorithms
In general collecting more, or more appropriate, data for a
prediction algorithm will improve accuracy much more than
improving the prediction algorithm itself. This has been called
“the unreasonable effectiveness of data”².
7.4 Features are more important

than the algorithm
In general many out of the box prediction algorithms perform
very similarly on most data sets³. The best way to improve
accuracy is often to pick better data and variables.
7.5 Define your error measure

first
You may directly try to optimize a specific error rate, say by
minimizing root mean squared error. Or you may choose to
weight different types of errors differently. But you should
define your error measure before starting to model.
Accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity are typical for binary
outcomes (Figure 7.2, adapted from Wikipedia Sensitivity and
Specificty⁴ for binary outcomes]).
²https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yvDCzhbjYWs
³http://arxiv.org/pdf/math/0606441.pdf
⁴http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sensitivity_and_specificity
Figure 7.2 Common binary error rates
Root mean squared error is typical for continuous outcomes.

That is the square root of the sum of the squared difference
between the prediction and the true value.
7.6 Avoid overfitting with cross

validation
To avoid tuning your model too closely to the observed data
use cross-validation⁵ or subsampling. The basic idea is to split
your training set up into two sets randomly, build different
models on the first piece, and try them on the second set,
picking the model that performs best.
7.7 If the goal is prediction

accuracy, average many
prediction models together.
In general, the prediction algorithms that most frequently
win prediction competitions blend multiple models together
⁵http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cross-validation_%28statistics%29
by averaging. The idea is that by averaging (or majority

voting) multiple good prediction algorithms you can reduce
variability without giving up bias. One of the earliest descrip-
tions of this idea was of a much simplified version based
on bootstrapping samples and building multiple prediction
functions - a process called bagging⁶ (short for bootstrap
aggregating). Random forests⁷, another successful prediction
algorithm, is based on a similar idea with classification trees.
7.8 Prediction is about tradeoffs

• Interpretability versus accuracy
• Speed versus accuracy
• Simplicity versus accuracy
• Scalability versus accuracy
In some areas one of these components may be more impor-

tant than others. The Netflix prize awarded $1,000,000 to the
best solution to predicting what movies people would like.
But the winning solution was so complicated it was never
implemented by Netflix because it was impractical⁸.
⁶http://statistics.berkeley.edu/sites/default/files/tech-reports/421.pdf
⁷http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Random_forest
⁸https://www.techdirt.com/blog/innovation/articles/20120409/03412518422/
8. Causality
The gold standard for causal data analysis is to combine
specific experimental designs such as randomized studies
with standard statistical analysis techniques. If correctly per-
formed, the experimental design makes it possible to identify
how variables affect each other on average.
8.1 Causal data analysis of

non-randomized experiments
is often difficult to justify.
Causal data analysis in observational studies requires both
more technical statistical analyses and belief that untestable
and often unrealistic assumptions are met. Phenomena that
are not easily studied with randomized studies, such as preg-
nancy or carcinogenesis, frequently produce spurious causal
data analyses that don’t hold up to scrutiny.
8.2 Even randomized studies may

be difficult to interpret
causally
Some common difficulties in clinical trials are: (1) patient
dropout preferentially by treatment, (2) unblinding of trials -
Causality 51
when the experimenters or subjects discover what treatment

they are part of, (3) treatments that are difficult to take or
adhere to, so just the intent to treat a person must be used as
the treatment itself. All of these issues make causal analysis
difficult even in randomized studies.
8.3 For randomized studies use

exploratory analysis to
confirm the randomization
“worked”
Make tables and plots to ensure all non-randomized variables
measured on each subject have approximately the same dis-
tribution between the groups, including missing values.
8.4 Causal data analyses seek to

identify average effects
between often noisy
variables.
Decades of data show a clear causal relationship between
smoking and cancer. If you smoke, it is a sure thing that your
risk of cancer will increase. But it is not a sure thing that you
will get cancer. The causal effect is real, but it is an effect on
your average risk.
Causality 52
8.5 Unless you have performed a

randomized experiment or
use causal techniques avoid
causal language
Causality creep is the idea that causal language is often used
to describe inferential or predictive analyses. Avoid using
words like “cause”, “effect”, or “leads to an increase” if you
have not performed a causal analysis.
8.6 Common mistakes
8.6.1 Causality creep

A common mistake is to perform an analysis that looks for
a correlation or association between measurements in a non-
randomized study, then interprets that correlation as a causal
relationship. For example, if you identify the well-known
correlation between ice cream scales and murder, interpreting
the correlation as “ice cream sales lead to increased homicide
rates”.
9. Written analyses
Data analysis is as much about communication as it is about
statistics. A written data analysis report should communi-
cate your message clearly and in a way that is readable to
non-technical audiences. The goal is to tell a clear, precise
and compelling story. Throughout your written analysis you
should focus on how each element: text, figures, equations,
and code contribute to or detract from the story you are trying
to tell.
9.1 The elements of a written

analysis
A written analysis should always include
• A title
• An introduction or motivation
• A description of the statistics or machine learning
models you used
• Results including measures of uncertainty
• Conclusions including potential problems
• References
Written analyses 54
9.2 Lead with the question you

are answering
Before explaining the data, models, or results, lead with the
question that you are trying to answer. The question should
be a scientific or business application - not a statistical or
computational question. A good example would be, “Can we
use tweets about stocks to predict stock prices?”
9.3 Describe the experimental

design
Explain where the data came from, how they were collected,
and relevant information about the technologies and systems
used to collect the data.
9.4 Describe the data set

Explain what processing you did to the data, and the tidy data
you produced. It is common to lead with a table summarizing
the variables in the tidy data set, including sample sizes,
number of variables, averages and variances or standard
deviations for each variable. This component of an analysis
is critical to identify data versioning issues.
Written analyses 55
9.5 When describing a statistical

model use equations or
psuedocode
Every model must be mathematically specified. This model
may be specified in the main text of the writing if the audience
is statistical or in an appendix if the audience is non-technical.
Modeling procedures should be completely specified using
equations or algorithms with explicit definitions of each input
and output. Each term and index in the equation should be
explained in plain language. When possible, use letters and
symbols that are abbreviations of the variables in your model.
For example, if modeling the relationship between weight and
height you might write the model W = a + b H + e and then
explain that W stands for weight, a is the weight for a person
with 0 height, b is the increase in weight units for a person
with one additional height unit, H is the height of the person,
and e is measurement error or noise.
9.6 Specify the uncertainty

distribution
You should declare the distribution of the error terms like
e and the assumptions you are making about those errors -
specifically whether they are independent or dependent and
whether they have common variance or are heteroskedastic¹.
¹http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heteroscedasticity
Written analyses 56
9.7 For each parameter of

interest report an estimate
and interpretation on the
scale of interest
When reporting an estimate do not say that we estimated
a=3, instead report that we estimated a change of 3 pounds
in weight for one inch in height.
9.8 For each parameter report a

measure of uncertainty on
the scientific scale
For every estimate you report you should report a measure
of uncertainty on the scale of interest. Report that a 95%
confidence interval for the estimated change in weight for a
unit change in height is 1 and 5 inches. Typical measures of
uncertainty are standard deviations, confidence intervals, or
credible intervals.
9.9 Summarize the importance of

reported estimates
When reporting an estimate, also report why you calculated
the estimate and what the quantitative value means.
Written analyses 57
9.10 Report potential problems

with the analysis
If you fit a model and you observe that there may be missing
data, or that outliers may be driving a particular estimate,
report that as part of the analysis.
9.11 Do not report every analysis

you performed
Many analyses, particularly exploratory analyses, will not be
useful to explaining your result and interpretation. Before
including an analysis in the final report, ask whether it
contributes to the story or explains a crucial fact about the
data set that can’t be left out.
9.12 Every statistical or machine

learning method should be
referenced
When using models it is important to give credit to the
person who developed them. It is also important so that the
reader can go back to the original source of the model and
understand it.
There is a convention that some statistical methods are not
cited like maximum likelihood or least squares - but at min-
imum a reference to a textbook should be made when using
even common techniques.
10. Creating figures
Figures ar graphs you are likely to share with other people or
include in reports. They are used to communicate with others
what we observed or discovered in the data set. The goal for
figures is that when viewed with an appropriately detailed
caption, they can stand alone without any further explanation
as a unit of information. There are several basic principles
behind creating useful expository graphs.
10.1 Information should be

communicated as often as
possible with position, and
on common scales.
The reason why statisticians don’t like pie-charts is that
comparing angles is notoriously hard. In Figure 10.1 which
slice is bigger A or D?
Creating figures 59
Figure 10.1 A pie chart
If we make this as a barchart it is much easier to see that A is

bigger than D (Figure 10.2).
Creating figures 60
Figure 10.2 A bar chart
This is actually a more general phenomenon. There are a

large number of visual tasks you could use when making
plots (Figure 10.3, adopted from Graphical perception: The-
ory, Experimentation, and Applications to the Development
of Graphical Models¹). It turns out that humans are best at
perceiving position along a single axis with a common scale.
¹http://www.jstor.org/discover/10.2307/2288400?uid=3739704&uid=2&uid=4&uid=
3739256&sid=21101742782357
Creating figures 61
Figure 10.3 Visual tasks
10.2 Low information density

should be avoided
The most extreme example of this is a plot with a single point.
It is better to just report the data value. But any graph that is
primarily white space and doesn’t illustrate a key feature of
the data should be avoided.
Creating figures 62
10.3 Gratuitous flourishes should

be avoided
When creating figures for papers, it is a good idea to make
them visually pleasing with a nice color palette and good
choices for the shape of points and fonts. However, gratuitous
flourishes like 3-d barcharts, 3-d pie charts, or animation for
no reason should be avoided.
10.4 Color and size may both be

used to communicate
information.
Color and size may both used, be used for communication.
A common approach is to plot a scatterplot of two variables,
where the points are colored or sized by a third. Color and
size should be used to communicate information, although
the choices can also be made on the basis of style and with
the goal of making figures interesting.
10.5 When there are many values

of a third variable use
faceting
In some cases, there are too many values of a third variable
to view in a single plot. When this happens, facet the plot by
making multiple panels, one panel each for different values of
the third variable.
Creating figures 63
10.6 Axis labels should be large,

easy to read, in plain
language
For figures and expository graphs, axis labels should be in
large type and easily readable. In addition, the axis labels
should not be variable names. For example instead of using
the value “x$hght” or “x[1,]”, which may be the default from
software, use “Height”.
10.7 Include units in figure labels

and legends
When labeling a variable in a figure, always include units, for
example “Height (cm)”.
10.8 Use figure legends

When size or color are used to distinguish points, include a
figure legend that labels any scales or colors used in plain
language.
10.9 Figure legends in the figure

are preferred
When possible, directly label point clouds, distributions, or
other features of a plot in the plot itself, without using a
separate figure legend.
Creating figures 64
10.10 Figure titles should

communicate the message
of the plot
A title should be used to communicate the main take home
message of a plot. For example if you plot the relation-
ship between studying and grades, your figure title might
read, “More studying is associated with improved grades”.
Eliminate titles that simply describe the data, for example,
“Studying versus grades”.
10.11 Label multi-panel plots

with numbers or letters
If you make a plot with multiple panels always include
numbers or letters for each panel so each component of
the plot can be individually referred to without resorting
to descriptions like, “the scatterplot in the upper right hand
corner”.
10.12 Add text to the plot itself to

communicate a message
To make a figure stand alone it is often helpful to label specific
trends or features of the data that are relevant to the person
looking at the graph. For example:
Creating figures 65
Figure 10.4 An in graph label
10.13 Figure captions should be

self-contained
A person should be able to understand from your figure
caption everything they need to know about your graph. So
you should explain at minimum what the x and y axis are,
what their units are, what all colors and sizes in the graph
mean, and in particular any trends you expect them to observe
in the figure.
Creating figures 66
10.14 Common errors
10.14.1 Using a color palette that

colorblind people can’t see
A common mistake is to use red and green to indicate dif-
ferent things on the same plot. There are many web tools²
available for uploading figures you have made to check
whether they are visible to color-blind people.
10.14.2 Using colors that look too

similar to each other
In general avoid using colors that appear very similar (red and
pink, blue and light blue) for making plots. Try to use colors
that are clearly different.
10.14.3 Not making scatterplots when

you should
Scatterplots are one of the most informative type of plot
since it shows each individual data value. When possible,
scatterplots should be used in favor of boxplots or barplots.
Even when using these more summarized versions of the data,
overlaying the data points can be useful.
10.14.4 Failing to take logs.

When data are highly skewed and you make a plot without
taking the log transform first, a large amount of the data
²http://www.vischeck.com/
Creating figures 67
will be clustered in the corner of the plot so most of the

patterns in the data will be obscured (Figure 10.5, adopted
from Displaying data badly³.
Figure 10.5 Without logs 99% of the data are in the lower left hand
corner in this figure from
10.14.5 Using a plot of x versus y when a

plot of (x+y) versus (x-y) is more
informative
If you have two ways of measuring the same quantity and you
want to see if they agree, use a Bland-Altman plot⁴. So instead
of plotting x versus y, plot x+y versus x-y. Then differences
³[Displayingdatabadly](https://www.biostat.wisc.edu/~kbroman/presentations/
IowaState2013/graphs_combined.pdf)
⁴http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bland%E2%80%93Altman_plot
Creating figures 68
between the two variables will be on the y axis - so you hope

all the values will be near zero. It also makes it easier to see
if there are magnitude effects, for example when small values
of x and y are more similar than large values of x and y.
10.14.6 Failing to ensure that multiple

panels have the same vertical
scale
When you have multiple panels make sure all axes are on
the same scale otherwise differences will not be correctly
perceived.
10.14.7 Failing to consider the point of

the graph but rather just using
some standard form
In some disciplines certain plots are used by custom. However,
each plot in a paper should communicate a message. If they do
not, even if they are “customary” they should be eliminated.
10.14.8 Bar plots with antennas

These plots are sometimes called dynamite plots⁵ and are very
low information density. Instead, scatterplots should be used.
⁵http://emdbolker.wikidot.com/blog:dynamite
Creating figures 69
10.14.9 Being inconsistent about color

choice across multiple panels or
figures
If you use color to label points in a figure according to a
variable, then every figure or panel in your paper should use
those same colors to label points by the same variable.
10.14.10 Aligning things horizontally

when comparisons would be
better made vertically, or vice
versa
When using multiple panels, the panels should be lined up
according to the axis for comparison. So if the points are
to be compared on the x-axis values they should be aligned
vertically and if they are to be compared on the y-axis values
they should be aligned horizontally.
10.14.11 Any of the other issues in Karl

Broman’s presentation on
displaying data badly
There are many other common visualization mistakes. A large
number of these are summarized in Karl Browman’s excellent
presentation on displaying data badly⁶.
⁶https://www.biostat.wisc.edu/~kbroman/presentations/IowaState2013/graphs_
combined.pdf
11. Presenting data
Giving data science talks can help you:
• Meet people
• Get people excited about your ideas/software/results
• Help people understand your ideas/software/results
The importance of the first point can’t be overstated. The

primary reason you are giving talks is for people to get to
know you. Being well known and well regarded can make a
huge range of parts of your job easier. So first and foremost
make sure you don’t forget to talk to people before, after, and
during your talk.
Point 2 is more important than point 3. As a data scientist,
it is hard to accept that the primary purpose of a talk is
advertising, not data science. See for example Hilary Mason’s
great presentation Entertain, don’t teach¹. Here are reasons
why entertainment is more important:
That being said, be very careful to avoid giving a TED talk.
If you are giving a data science presentation the goal is to
communicate specific ideas. So while you are entertaining,
don’t forget why you are entertaining.
¹http://www.hilarymason.com/speaking/speaking-entertain-dont-teach/
Presenting data 71
11.1 Tailor your talk to your

audience
It depends on the event and the goals of the event. Here is a
non-comprehensive list:
• Small group meeting:

– Goal: Update people you work with on what you
are doing and get help.
– What to talk about: Short intro on your problem,
brief update on what you’ve tried, long discussion
about where you are going/what you need help
on.
• Short talk at conference:
– Goal: Entertain people, get people to read your
paper/blog or use your software.
– What to talk about: Short intro on your problem,
brief explanation of solution, links to software
• Long format formal talk:
– Goal: Entertain people, get people to read your
software, make them understand your problem/-
solution
– What to talk about: Intro to your problem, how
you solved it, results, and connection to broader
ideas
• Job talk:
– Goal: Get a job, entertain people, make them
understand your problem/solution
– What to talk about: Brief overview of who you
are, intro to your (single) problem, how you solved
it, results, summary of what you have done/plan
to do.
Presenting data 72
11.2 Order your talk in story

format
The biggest trap in giving a talk is assuming that other people
will follow you because you follow the talk. It is key to be
aware of what your audience knows and doesn’t know. In
general it is always better to assume your audience knows
less than you think they do. People like to feel smart. I have
rarely heard complaints about people who went too basic
in their explanations, but frequently hear complaints about
people being lost. That being said, here are some structural
tips. Your mileage may vary.
• Always lead with a brief, understandable to every-

one statement of the scientific problem that lead to
your data.
• Explain the data and measurement technology before
you explain the features you will use
• Explain the features you will use to model data before
you explain the model
• When presenting results, make sure you are telling a
story.
The last point is particularly important. Usually by the results

section people are getting a little antsy. So a completely
disparate set of results with little story behind them is going to
drive people bonkers. Make sure you explain up front where
the results are going (e.g. “Our results will show our method
is the fastest/most accurate/best ever.”), then make sure that
your results are divided into sections by what point they are
making and organized just like they would be if you were
telling a story.
Presenting data 73
11.3 Use large fonts

Fonts can never be too big. Go huge. Small fonts will be met
with anger
11.4 Include contact information

early
Your title slide should have a contactable form of you (twitter
handle, email address, etc.)
11.5 All figures should have large

axis labels in plain English.
Figure axes should be readable from the back of the room.
11.6 Be sure to attribute all

images and text you borrow
Any figure you borrow off the internet should have a web
link to the source. Any figure you borrow off a paper should
have a web link to the paper. Any time you use someone else’s
slide you should put “Slide courtesy of So and so” with a link
to their page.
Presenting data 74
11.7 In general use a solid

background and opposite
color font
Unless you have experience in design, using pictures for back-
grounds or similar color backgrounds and fonts are dangerous
for presentations.
11.8 Minimize text on slides

Whenever possible break multiple bullet points up into indi-
vidual slides with only one bullet point on them. If you can,
go textless with only images. That way you won’t fall into the
trap of reading your slides.
11.9 Explain every figure in your

talk in detail
If you have a figure in your talk you should present it in the
following way.
• Explain what the figure is supposed to communicate

(e.g. “this figure shows our method has higher accu-
racy”)
• Explain the figure axes (e.g. “the y-axis is sensitivity the
x-axis is 1-specificity”)
• Explain what trends the audience should look for (e.g.
“curves that go straight up at zero and across the top of
the plot are best”)
Presenting data 75
If you don’t have time to fully explain a figure, than simplify

it, or omit it.
11.10 Use equations to make

ideas concrete, but use
them sparingly
If you are giving a data talk you will often have some equa-
tions. That is ok. But the way you present them is critically
important to giving an understandable talk. Here are a few
important points:
• Before presenting an equation explain the data

• Whenever possible use words instead of symbols in
equations (Expression = Noise + Signal is better than
E = N + S is better than Y = X + E)
• Use no more than two subscripts whenever possible
• When explaining an equation
– First explain the point of the equation (“we are
trying to model expression as a function of noise
and signal”)
– Then explain what each symbol is (“E is expres-
sion, N is noise, etc.”)
– Then explain how the model relates them (“E is a
linear function of signal and noise”)
Presenting data 76
11.11 Be willing to say “I don’t

know”
Inevitably you will get hard questions during your talk. The
most important point is not to panic and not to get defensive.
It is way better to just say I don’t know, then to get upset.
When you get asked a really hard question you should:
• Take a second and a deep breath. If necessary, ask the

person to repeat the question.
• Answer the question the best you can come up with on
the spot
• Say I don’t know if you don’t know. If you say I don’t
know, then you can give your best guess and explain it
is a guess.
11.12 Distiguish your response

type when answering
questions
The key is to distinguish what kind of response you are
giving. Are you giving a response where you know the answer
because you actually looked into that? Are you giving a
complete guess where you have no idea? Or, what is more
likely, are you somewhere in between?
11.13 Never be aggressive

Almost everywhere you give a talk there will be a person who
is upset/intense/aggressive. Do not fall into the temptation
Presenting data 77
to be aggressive in return. Answer their first questions

politely just like everyone else. If they keep asking really
aggressive/lots of questions, you are within your rightst to
say: “You are bringing up a lot of good issues, I’d be happy to
discuss with you after the presentation more in depth, but in
the interest of time I’m going to move on to the next part of
my talk”. It is ok to keep things moving and to finish on time.
11.14 Finish on time

Do it. People will love you for it. If you are the last speaker
in a session and others have gone long, adapt and go shorter.
The value you gain by making your audience happy >>>> the
extra 5 minutes of details you could have explained.
11.15 Where you should put your

talk
If you have weblinks in your talk you need to post it online.
There is no way people will write down any of the links in
your talk. Two good places to put your talks are
• https://speakerdeck.com/²
• http://www.slideshare.net/³.
Slideshare is easier to view on mobile phones and iPads,

which is the most likely place someone will read your talk.
²https://speakerdeck.com/
³http://www.slideshare.net/
Presenting data 78
This chapter builds on and expands the book author’s talk

guide⁴.
⁴https://github.com/jtleek/talkguide
12. Reproducibility
Reproducibility involves being able to recalculate the exact
numbers in a data analysis using the code and raw data
provided by the analyst. Reproducibility is often difficult to
achieve and has slowed down the discovery of important data
analytic errors¹. Reproducibility should not be confused with
“correctness” of a data analysis. A data analysis can be fully
reproducible and recreate all numbers in an analysis and still
be misleading or incorrect.
12.1 Have a data analysis script

The primary way to ensure an analysis is reproducible is
to create code scripts that exactly generate all numbers and
figures in an analysis. R markdown² and iPython notebooks³
are both useful for organizing scripts. These tools integrate
code, plain text, and figures into one document and are
examples of what is called, “literate programming”⁴. An R
markdown document includes text, code, and figures and can
easily be converted into pdf or HTML format (Figure 12.1,
adapted from R markdown documentation⁵).
¹http://www.cbsnews.com/news/deception-at-duke-fraud-in-cancer-care/
²http://rmarkdown.rstudio.com/
³http://ipython.org/notebook.html
⁴http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Literate_programming
⁵http://rmarkdown.rstudio.com/
Reproducibility 80
Figure 12.1 An example of an R markdown document
12.2 Record versions of software

and parameters
If you are using open-source software such as R or Python,
then packages will often be updated and their exact behavior
may change. At minimum you should record what versions
of the software you used to perform an analysis. In R you
can get this information with the sessionInfo() command
or the devtools::session_info() command, which is more
informative.
12.3 Organize your data analysis

A good organizational structure for data analysis files is to
keep separate folders for:
Reproducibility 81
• Data
– raw data
– processed data
• Figures
– Exploratory figures
– Final figures
• R code
– Raw or unused scripts
– Data processing scripts
– Analysis scripts
• Text
– README files explaining what all the compo-
nents are
– Final data analysis products like presentation-
s/writeups
12.4 Use version control

When performing analysis it is a good idea to keep track of
the version of the software you are writing. One very popular
approach is to use Github⁶. You can put your R scripts, R
markdown documents, and small data sets on Github, then
use the version control system Git to manage your analysis.
Github is an example of a distributed version control system
where a version of the files is on your local computer and
also available at a central server (Figure 12.2, adapted from
git documentation⁷). Multiple people can then work on the
analysis code and push changes to the central server.
⁶https://github.com/
⁷http://git-scm.com/book/en/v2/Getting-Started-About-Version-Control
Reproducibility 82
Figure 12.2 Distributed version control
Using version control will help you keep track of changes to

your analysis and their impact on the results.
12.5 Set a seed

When your calculations involve random sampling - for ex-
ample if you use the bootstrap or permutations - then you
need to set a random number seed. This will ensure that
the pseudorandom numbers generated by the computer will
always be the same when different people run your analysis.
In R you can do this with the command set.seed(13323)
where 13323 can be replaced with any positive integer.
Reproducibility 83
12.6 For large data sets, save

intermediate results and
especially how you got them
If you are working with large data sets, create a script to cal-
culate summary measures. Include all the same details about
version numbers and parameters. Then save the intermediate
data set in a tidy format in a csv or tab-delimited file for easy
sharing.
12.7 Have someone else run your

analysis
The best way to check reproducibility is to have someone else,
ideally on a different type of computer, run your data analysis
scripts. They should be able to run the analysis and get the
same figures and results without having to ask you questions.
sharing guide⁸.
12.8.1 Not using a script for your

analysis
If you describe your analysis in written documentation, it is
much easier to make mistakes of reproducibility.
⁸https://github.com/jtleek/datasharing
Reproducibility 84
12.8.2 Not recording version numbers or

parameters used
It is important to record: (1) the type of computer used, (2) the
version of all software used, and (3) all parameters you used
when performing an analysis.
12.8.3 Not sharing data or code

For every analysis you perform you should include a link to
the code and data you used to perform the analysis.
12.8.4 Using reproducibility as a weapon

If you reproduce someone else’s analysis and identify a prob-
lem, bug or mistake you should contact them and try to help
them resolve the problem rather that pointing the problem
out publicly or humiliating them.
13. A few matters of
form
• Report estimates followed by parentheses.
The increase is 5.3 units (95% CI: 3.1, 4.3 units)
• When reporting P-values do not report numbers below

machine precision. P-values less than 2 x 10e-16 are
generally below machine precision and inaccurate.
Reporting a P-value of 1.35 x 10e-25 is effectively

reporting a P-value of 0 and caution should be
urged. A common approach is to report censored
P-values such as P < 1 x 10e-8.
• When reporting permutation P-values avoid reporting

a value of zero.
P-values should be calculated as (K + 1)/(B + 1)¹

where B is the number of permutations and K
is the number of times the null statistic is more
extreme than the upper bound.
• Do not report estimates with over-precision.

¹http://www.statsci.org/webguide/smyth/pubs/permp.pdf
A few matters of form 86
If measurements are only accurate to the tenths

digit, do not report an estimate of 6.8932
• When programing variable names should be lower case,

with words separated by underscores, and as explicit as
possible in data frames you are analyzing.
The date of visiting a website might be named

date_of_visit.
• In written analysis variable names should always be

reported in plain language, not as variable names.
The date of visiting a website would be described

as “the date of visit variable”.
14. The data analysis
checklist
This checklist provides a condensed look at the information
in this book. It can be used as a guide during the process of a
data analysis, as a rubric for grading data analysis projects, or
as a way to evaluate the quality of a reported data analysis.
14.1 Answering the question

1. Did you specify the type of data analytic question (e.g.
exploration, association causality) before touching the
data?
2. Did you define the metric for success before beginning?
3. Did you understand the context for the question and
the scientific or business application?
4. Did you record the experimental design?
5. Did you consider whether the question could be an-
swered with the available data?
14.2 Checking the data

1. Did you plot univariate and multivariate summaries of
the data?
2. Did you check for outliers?
3. Did you identify the missing data code?
The data analysis checklist 88
14.3 Tidying the data

1. Is each variable one column?
2. Is each observation one row?
3. Do different data types appear in each table?
4. Did you record the recipe for moving from raw to tidy
data?
5. Did you create a code book?
6. Did you record all parameters, units, and functions
applied to the data?
14.4 Exploratory analysis

1. Did you identify missing values?
2. Did you make univariate plots (histograms, density
plots, boxplots)?
3. Did you consider correlations between variables (scat-
terplots)?
4. Did you check the units of all data points to make sure
they are in the right range?
5. Did you try to identify any errors or miscoding of
variables?
6. Did you consider plotting on a log scale?
7. Would a scatterplot be more informative?
14.5 Inference
1. Did you identify what large population you are trying
to describe?
2. Did you clearly identify the quantities of interest in

your model?
3. Did you consider potential confounders?
4. Did you identify and model potential sources of corre-
lation such as measurements over time or space?
5. Did you calculate a measure of uncertainty for each
estimate on the scientific scale?
14.6 Prediction
1. Did you identify in advance your error measure?
2. Did you immediately split your data into training and
validation?
3. Did you use cross validation, resampling, or bootstrap-
ping only on the training data?
4. Did you create features using only the training data?
5. Did you estimate parameters only on the training data?
6. Did you fix all features, parameters, and models before
applying to the validation data?
7. Did you apply only one final model to the validation
data and report the error rate?
14.7 Causality
1. Did you identify whether your study was randomized?
2. Did you identify potential reasons that causality may
not be appropriate such as confounders, missing data,
non-ignorable dropout, or unblinded experiments?
3. If not, did you avoid using language that would imply
cause and effect?
14.8 Written analyses

1. Did you describe the question of interest?
2. Did you describe the data set, experimental design, and
question you are answering?
3. Did you specify the type of data analytic question you
are answering?
4. Did you specify in clear notation the exact model you
are fitting?
5. Did you explain on the scale of interest what each
estimate and measure of uncertainty means?
6. Did you report a measure of uncertainty for each esti-
mate on the scientific scale?
14.9 Figures
1. Does each figure communicate an important piece of
information or address a question of interest?
2. Do all your figures include plain language axis labels?
3. Is the font size large enough to read?
4. Does every figure have a detailed caption that explains
all axes, legends, and trends in the figure?
14.10 Presentations
1. Did you lead with a brief, understandable to everyone
statement of your problem?
2. Did you explain the data, measurement technology, and
experimental design before you explained your model?
3. Did you explain the features you will use to model data
before you explain the model?
4. Did you make sure all legends and axes were legible
from the back of the room?
14.11 Reproducibility
1. Did you avoid doing calculations manually?
2. Did you create a script that reproduces all your analy-
ses?
3. Did you save the raw and processed versions of your
data?
4. Did you record all versions of the software you used to
process the data?
5. Did you try to have someone else run your analysis
code to confirm they got the same answers?
14.12 R packages
1. Did you make your package name “Googleable”
2. Did you write unit tests for your functions?
3. Did you write help files for all functions?
4. Did you write a vignette?
5. Did you try to reduce dependencies to actively main-
tained packages?
6. Have you eliminated all errors and warnings from R
CMD CHECK?
15. Additional
resources
15.1 Class lecture notes
• Johns Hopkins Data Science Specialization¹ and Addi-
tional resources²
• Data wrangling, exploration, and analysis with R³
• Tools for Reproducible Research⁴
• Data carpentry⁵
15.2 Tutorials
• Git/github tutorial⁶
• Make tutorial⁷
• knitr in a knutshell⁸
• Writing an R package from scratch⁹
¹https://github.com/DataScienceSpecialization/courses
²http://datasciencespecialization.github.io/
³https://stat545-ubc.github.io/
⁴http://kbroman.org/Tools4RR/
⁵https://github.com/datacarpentry/datacarpentry
⁶http://kbroman.org/github_tutorial/
⁷http://kbroman.org/minimal_make/
⁸http://kbroman.org/knitr_knutshell/
⁹http://hilaryparker.com/2014/04/29/writing-an-r-package-from-scratch/
Additional resources 93
15.3 Leek group guides

• To data sharing¹⁰
• To giving talks¹¹
• To developing R packages¹²
15.4 Books
• An introduction to statistical learning¹³
• Advanced data analysis from an elementary point of
view¹⁴
• Advanced R programming¹⁵
• OpenIntro Statistics¹⁶
• Statistical inference for data science¹⁷
¹⁰https://github.com/jtleek/datasharing
¹¹https://github.com/jtleek/talkguide
¹²https://github.com/jtleek/rpackages
¹³http://www-bcf.usc.edu/~gareth/ISL/
¹⁴http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~cshalizi/ADAfaEPoV/
¹⁵http://adv-r.had.co.nz/
¹⁶https://www.openintro.org/stat/textbook.php
¹⁷https://leanpub.com/LittleInferenceBook

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The Elements of Data

This version was published on 2015-03-02

This is a Leanpub book. Leanpub empowers authors and

©2014 - 2015 Jeff Leek

2. The data analytic question . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

3. Tidying the data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

4. Checking the data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17

6. Statistical modeling and inference . . . . . . . . . 34

7. Prediction and machine learning . . . . . . . . . . 45

13.A few matters of form . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85

14.The data analysis checklist . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87

this to reveal some characteristic of the data that would be

The data may not contain the answer. The com-

Before performing a data analysis the key is to define the type

Figure 2.1 The data analysis question type flow chart

people live in different parts of the United States. The inter-

experiments, it is usually only possible to observe whether

were able to determine that fecal transplants caused a reduc-

2.8 Common mistakes

2.8.1 Correlation does not imply

Most data analyses involve inference or prediction. Unless a

there is a relationship between two variables. Some great

Figure 2.2 A spurious correlation

Particular caution should be used when applying words such

A common mistake is to use a single, unsplit data set for both

When you have a very small sample size, it is often impossible

2.8.4 Data dredging

Similar to the idea of overfitting, if you fit a large number

“If you torture the data enough, nature will al-

This chapter builds on and expands the paper “What is the

3.1 The components of a data set

1. The raw data.

3.2 Raw data

1. The strange binary file your measurement machine

3.3 Raw data is relative

3.4 Tidy data

• Each variable you measure should be in one column

3.5 Include a row at the top of

3.6 If you are sharing your data

3.7 The code book

• Information about the variables (including units!) in the

In our genomics example, the analyst would want to know

3.8 The instruction list or script

3.9 The ideal instruction list is a

3.10 If there is no script, be very

• Step 1 - take the raw file, run version 3.1.2 of summarize

You should also include information about which system

3.11 Common mistakes

3.11.1 Combining multiple variables into

3.11.2 Merging unrelated data into a

3.11.3 An instruction list that isn’t

4.1 How to code variables

Continuous variables are anything measured on a quantita-

4.2 In the code book you should

4.3 Avoid coding categorical or

4.4 Always encode every piece of

4.5 Identify the missing value

“999”, and “-1”. There is sometimes also a missing data indica-

4.6 Check for clear coding errors