Forms of Thought
Forms of Thought
Forms of Thought
E. J. LOWE
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1 Introduction 1
part ii identity
5 What is a criterion of identity? 69
6 Identity conditions and their grounds 94
v
vi Contents
part iv conditionality
9 The truth about counterfactuals 163
10 Conditionals and conditional probability 182
Bibliography 205
Index 210
Figures
vii
Tables
viii
Preface
xii
chapter 1
Introduction
1
Bertrand Russell, Our Knowledge of the External World (London: George Allen and Unwin, 1922),
p. 53.
1
2 Introduction
identity, modality, and conditionality. It is my belief that much – though by
no means all – that needs to be said concerning the forms of thought can
be said in terms of these key notions.
I shall keep the rest of this Introduction brief, restricting it to a short
outline of the contents of the remaining chapters of the book, but I refer
readers once more to the Preface for a statement of my primary intentions
and guiding thoughts in writing the book. The remainder of the book is
divided into four Parts, dealing respectively with the topics of reference and
predication (Chapters 2 to 4), identity (Chapters 5 and 6), modality (Chap-
ters 7 and 8), and conditionality (Chapters 9 and 10).
2 identity
Chapter 5, ‘What is a criterion of identity?’, looks in more depth at the
notion of such a criterion that was first introduced in Chapter 2. This
chapter is based on my paper of the same title which appeared in Philo-
sophical Quarterly 39 (1989), pp. 1–21. I have retained its original title for
this chapter and have revised it only where it deviates from my current
views on its topic, because it has been widely referred to in the intervening
years and I therefore thought it appropriate to make it available, in a form
as close as possible to its original one, in the present volume. The only
significant way in which I have changed my mind about things said in the
Introduction 5
original version involves certain matters covered in Chapter 2, concerning
the manner in which children might be equipped to form identity-
judgements about perceptible material objects in their immediate environ-
ment. Accordingly, I have now brought what I say in Chapter 5 into line
with what I say in Chapter 2 on the matters in question.
In Chapter 6, ‘Identity conditions and their grounds’, I advance from
the more semantically oriented concerns of Chapter 5 to explicitly meta-
physical ones, where questions of identity are at issue. Assuming, in line
with the conclusions of Chapter 5, that entities of different kinds very
often possess different identity conditions – determining, for instance,
what possible changes they can intelligibly be supposed to persist through
over time – the question arises as to the source or ground of these
conditions. One view which I resolutely reject in this chapter is the idea
that these conditions have a purely conceptual basis and are to that extent
the workmanship of the human mind, as John Locke might have put it.
Instead, I argue in favour of a metaphysically realist view of how identity
conditions are grounded, according to which their source lies in the very
essences of the entities concerned, with ‘essence’ being construed in a
realist and broadly neo-Aristotelian fashion consonant with the neo-
Aristotelian categorial ontology espoused in earlier chapters. A very
important aspect of my own account of essence – whether or not it is
faithful to Aristotle himself in this respect – is that I deny that essences
are themselves entities of any kind. In other words, I take the concept of
essence to be, in the terminology introduced earlier, a formal rather than
a material one.
3 modality
Chapter 7 is entitled ‘Identity, vagueness, and modality’. In this chapter
I challenge the widely held view that predications of identity can never be
vague or indeterminate in respect of their truth-value and never be contin-
gent, other than as a consequence of features of the language in which we
express them – that is to say, that the source of such vagueness or
contingency can never be ontological, as opposed to semantic or epistemic,
in character. Here I focus on two very well-known attempts to uphold
each aspect of this widely held view, namely Gareth Evans’s attempted
proof that there cannot be ‘vague objects’ and the alleged proof of the
necessity of identity that is attributable, independently, to Saul Kripke
and Ruth Barcan Marcus. These two supposed proofs are interestingly
parallel in certain important respects and both, in my view, suffer from
6 Introduction
essentially the same underlying fault, which renders each of them subtly
question-begging. The vagueness question is particularly important, from a
metaphysical point of view, because if my opponents are correct it is
difficult to see how our common-sense ontology of ‘ordinary objects’, such
as tables and horses – Aristotle’s ‘primary substances’ – could be held to
reflect the true nature of mind-independent reality. Instead, we would
seem to be driven to endorse a much more ‘revisionary’ and ‘sparse’
ontology, acknowledging the reality only of ‘simple’ material objects, such
as the fundamental particles posited by physics, or indeed the reality only
of a single material object – the physical cosmos as a whole – as some
extreme ontological monists maintain that we should.
Chapter 8, ‘Necessity, essence, and possible worlds’, focuses solely upon
the semantics, logic, and metaphysics of modality. Very commonly in
recent times – thanks especially to the seminal work of Saul Kripke on
the foundations of modal logic – the notion of a necessarily true propos-
ition is explicated in the following way: such a proposition, it is said, is one
that is true in every possible world. However, this explication is no clearer
than the key notion of a ‘possible world’ upon which it draws. In this
chapter, I argue that this notion is thoroughly obscure and really of no use
at all in explicating either the notion of necessity or the metaphysical
ground of necessary truth. Instead, I appeal for these purposes once more
to a neo-Aristotelian notion of essence, building on recent work of mine on
this theme in, for instance, my paper ‘Two Notions of Being: Entity and
Essence’, in Robin Le Poidevin (ed.), Being: Developments in Contemporary
Metaphysics (Cambridge University Press, 2008). The conception of
essence that I defend is, as I say, a neo-Aristotelian one, in stark contrast
with the current mainstream conception, which attempts to define essence
in terms of necessity, rather than vice versa. In defending this approach,
I consciously draw upon insights that are to be found in Kit Fine’s
important recent work on the topic of essence and modality, although
my own views on these matters do not exactly coincide with his in every
important respect.
4 conditionality
In Chapter 9, ‘The truth about counterfactuals’, I develop a distinctive
account of the logic and semantics of counterfactual conditionals which
departs in important respects from all other existing accounts, most
notably the highly influential account of David Lewis. Of course,
the interpretation of conditionals quite generally is notoriously
Introduction 7
controversial – much more so than that, say, of conjunctive or disjunc-
tive propositions. It is still hotly debated, for example, whether condi-
tionals fall into two logically distinct classes – indicative conditionals
and subjunctive conditionals – and equally hotly debated whether all
indicative conditionals are so-called material conditionals. Another
much-disputed question is whether the notion of conditionality, at least
in the case of indicative conditionals, is explicable in terms of the
notion of conditional probability, rather than vice versa – a matter to
which I turn in the final chapter of the book. In the present chapter,
I argue in defence of a unified theory of conditionals, embracing both
indicatives and subjunctives, which explicates them in terms of a
generalized notion of necessity – this notion admitting various more
specific modal interpretations dependent on context. One very import-
ant implication of the account is that the logic of conditionals, including
counterfactuals, is reducible to a variety of standard modal logic. This
chapter is essentially a revised and updated version of my paper of the
same title, ‘The Truth about Counterfactuals’, Philosophical Quarterly
45 (1995), pp. 41–59, although the system of conditional logic that
I defend was first aired much earlier, in my ‘A Simplification of the
Logic of Conditionals’, Notre Dame Journal of Formal Logic 24 (1983),
pp. 357–66. As with Chapter 5, I thought it best to restrict revisions
here to a necessary minimum, because the original paper has been quite
widely referred to since it first appeared in 1995. One reason why
I consider the work of this chapter to be particularly important is that
it can be drawn upon to challenge a view that has recently gained some
currency, according to which our knowledge of modal truths, quite
generally, can be explicated in terms of our knowledge of counterfactual
conditionals. I believe the very reverse of this to be the case, precisely
because I consider the logic of conditionals to be reducible to a variety
of modal logic.
As I have just indicated, Chapter 10, ‘Conditionals and conditional
probability’, is ultimately motivated by the question whether the notion
of conditionality – the notion canonically expressed by the logical connect-
ive ‘if’ – is explicable in terms of the notion of conditional probability, as the
latter is standardly understood in the mathematical theory of probability.
A positive answer to this question has been very ably defended by Dorothy
Edgington, whose work consequently poses a serious threat to my own
attempt to frame a unified theory of conditionals which draws instead
upon modal notions and standard modal logic. In this chapter, I argue that
Edgington’s position is unsustainable and that, in fact, the correct
8 Introduction
direction of explanation is from the notion of conditionality to the notion
of conditional probability, not vice versa. In the process of arguing for this,
I subject the standard ratio-based definition of conditional probability to a
number of criticisms and propose in place of it a definition of conditional
probability which is framed in explicitly conditional terms – and hence in
terms fully consonant with my own unified theory of conditionals.
part i
Reference and predication
chapter 2
In this, the first substantive chapter of the book, I want to defend a thesis
that I call categorialism regarding the individuation of objects, in the
cognitive sense of the term ‘individuation’.1 Individuation in this sense –
which is to be distinguished from individuation in the metaphysical
sense2 – is the singling out of an object in thought. According to categori-
alism, a thinker can single out an object in this way only if he or she grasps,
at least implicitly, some categorial concept under which he or she conceives
the object in question to fall – such a concept being one that supplies a
distinctive criterion of identity for objects conceived to fall under it.
Plausible examples of such categorial concepts would be the concepts of
an animal, a material artefact, and (what I shall call, for want of a better
term) a geographical prominence.
Categorialism, thus, is a more liberal doctrine than sortalism – the latter
doctrine maintaining that an object can be singled out in thought only
when conceived of as falling under some specific sortal concept, such as the
concept of a cat, a table, or a mountain. As these everyday examples
illustrate, categorial concepts are more abstract than any of the more
specific sortal concepts that fall within their range of application: animal,
for instance, is more abstract than either cat or dog, and geographical
prominence is more abstract than either mountain or island. All sortal
concepts falling within the range of application of the same categorial
concept are, it seems clear, necessarily associated with the same criterion of
identity, but they evidently differ with respect to the more specific sortal
persistence conditions governing objects that fall under them. These sortal
persistence conditions – which impose restrictions on what varieties of
1
I have defended this thesis before: see, especially, my ‘Sortals and the Individuation of Objects’, Mind
and Language 22 (2007), pp. 514–33. Here I want to strengthen and extend the arguments of that
paper.
2
For more on this distinction, see my ‘Individuation’, in M. J. Loux and D. W. Zimmerman (eds.),
The Oxford Handbook of Metaphysics (Oxford University Press, 2003).
11
12 Reference and predication
natural change an object can be supposed to survive while continuing to
fall under the relevant sortal concept – are for the most part discoverable
only empirically, whereas criteria of identity proper are most plausibly
classified as relatively a priori metaphysical principles.
In the present chapter, I shall offer some arguments in support of
categorialism and then go on to inquire whether these arguments can be
extended from the domain of singular thought to that of singular linguistic
reference: that is, I shall inquire whether it can reasonably be contended
that a speaker cannot successfully refer to an object by means of a proper
name unless he or she grasps, at least implicitly, that the name’s referent
falls under a certain categorial concept, which supplies a criterion of
identity for the referent. This contention conflicts, of course, with the
assumptions of any purely ‘direct’ theory of reference, to the extent that it
makes an object’s known satisfaction of some broadly descriptive specifi-
cation a necessary – albeit not a sufficient – condition for successful
linguistic reference to that object.
6
I shall say much more about criteria of identity in Chapter 5. See also my More Kinds of Being:
A Further Study of Individuation, Identity and the Logic of Sortal Terms (Malden, MA and Oxford:
Wiley-Blackwell, 2009), pp. 16–28.
Individuation, reference, and sortal terms 15
of set theory, according to which if x and y are sets, then x is identical with y
if and only if x and y have the same members – so that sameness of
membership is the criterial relation for sets. But sets, of course, are abstract
objects. It is rather harder to provide completely uncontentious examples
of criteria of identity for concrete objects of any sort. This should not
surprise us, since our grasp of such criteria is typically implicit rather than
explicit and the criteria themselves are often open to question and revision
in the light of philosophical argument. The criteria implicit in the everyday
use of sortal terms are, moreover, often somewhat vague and shifting. This
would be a defect in a formal language, such as the language of mathemat-
ics, but can hardly be complained about where everyday discourse is
concerned.
Vagueness in our everyday criteria of identity has the consequence that
some everyday questions of identity lack determinate answers, but the vast
majority do not. Consider, for instance, the everyday criterion of identity
for mountains, which is plausibly something like this:
(CIM) For any objects x and y, if x and y are mountains, then x is identical with y if
and only if x and y have the same peak.
Here we are taking mountains to be regions of terrain that are elevated
above their surroundings and which possess a peak – that is, a highest
point. It may be worried that the concept of a peak or highest point is in
some sense more sophisticated than that of a mountain and that this
somehow compromises (CIM)’s claim to be a criterion of identity for
mountains. However, in the first place, I would not wish to claim that
anyone who grasps the concept of a mountain must have an explicit grasp
of the concept of a peak; and, in the second place, it seems clear that the
concept of a peak or highest point is at least implicitly presupposed by that
of a mountain, whereas the reverse is plainly not the case, since many
things other than mountains can possess a highest point. Undoubtedly,
(CIM) is a rather rough-and-ready definition that professional geographers
might take issue with, but it will serve for purposes of illustration.
Now, (CIM) is clearly incapable of resolving some questions of
mountain-identity. For instance, if we have a region of terrain that is
elevated above its surroundings but in which two approximately equally
high points are unsurpassed by any other, with a saddle-shaped dip
between them, (CIM) doesn’t really help us to decide whether what we
have here is a single mountain or two mountains separated by a shallow
valley. But this doesn’t mean that (CIM) is worthless as a criterion of
identity for mountains, since in the vast majority of cases it does supply a
16 Reference and predication
determinate answer to questions of mountain-identity. The same lesson
may be drawn by reflecting on the everyday criterion of identity for
animals, which – to echo Locke7 – is plausibly something like the
following:
(CIA) For any objects x and y, if x and y are animals, then x is identical with y if
and only if x and y participate in the same life.
It may sometimes be hard to determine whether we have a case of two
animals that are vitally connected to one another – as in a case of conjoined
twins, or in a case of a mother and her unborn child – or just a single
animal. And this is because the notion of ‘sameness of life’ is to a certain
extent vague. But other cases are clear-cut: for instance, a rat and a flea that
lives in its fur are clearly two distinct animals according to (CIA), which is
as it should be.
A further lesson that (CIM) and (CIA) serve to reinforce is a point
mentioned earlier, namely that objects belonging to sorts that are governed
by different criteria of identity cannot intelligibly be identified with one
another, with the consequence that one cannot intelligibly suppose that –
to use again our earlier example – a cat could survive a process of
metamorphosis which left it existing ‘as’ a mountain. This is because cats,
being animals, have their identity determined by the relation of sameness of
life, but mountains are simply not living things and consequently cannot
be identified with anything that is essentially alive. Here it may be objected
that I am just assuming without argument that, indeed, any animal is
essentially an animal and so essentially alive. I confess that I am indeed
making this assumption, although it seems to me to be an entirely
reasonable one. To reject it is to suppose, in effect, that ‘animal’ is not,
after all, a categorial term. To suppose that an animal could survive being
changed into a mountain is to suppose that the sortal terms ‘animal’ and
‘mountain’ are both subsumed by some single higher-level categorial term
which supplies a common criterion of identity for both animals and
mountains. But what could this putative categorial term be? It could not
be ‘material object’, since that is pretty clearly transcategorial and supplies
no single criterion of identity for any of the objects to which it applies. The
term applies, after all, to anything that is both an object and composed of
matter. But, it seems clear, there is no single criterion of identity governing
all such objects – bearing in mind here that a genuine criterion of identity
must supply a non-trivial criterial relation for the objects that it governs.
7
See Locke, An Essay Concerning Human Understanding, ii, xxvii, 4.
Individuation, reference, and sortal terms 17
If this claim – that ‘material object’ is a transcategorial term – is not
immediately obvious to some philosophers, I suspect it is because they may
be prone to confuse it with another term which is, pretty clearly, a
categorial term, namely ‘hunk of matter’. A hunk of matter – or what
Locke called a ‘body’, ‘mass’, or ‘parcel’ of matter – is a quantity of matter
collected into a cohesive whole, which can remain intact under the
impression of an external force and undergo motion as a result. Borrowing
from Locke’s account,8 it is not too difficult to state a plausible criterion of
identity for hunks of matter, as follows:
(CIH) For any objects x and y, if x and y are hunks of matter, then x is identical
with y if and only if x and y are composed of the same material particles
bonded together.
(CIH) has the plausible implication that if some material particles are
removed from a certain hunk of matter, then what remains is, strictly
speaking, a different hunk of matter. The fact that we do not always speak
strictly in such circumstances is not to the point, since most ordinary
speakers can readily be persuaded to agree that they are speaking loosely if
they say that the loss of a few particles leaves us with just the same hunk;
otherwise, indeed, unscrupulous dealers could exploit purchasers of gold
ingots without threat of challenge, by regularly rubbing off a few gold
particles between receiving their fee and delivering the goods. Here it may
be objected that the purchasers are only interested in buying a certain
quantity of gold, not a particular piece or hunk of it. However, a ‘piece’ of
gold just is a certain quantity of gold gathered together into a connected
whole, so the distinction has no bearing on the case. Even so, we should
once again acknowledge a certain amount of harmless vagueness in (CIH),
arising from the fact that it is not always perfectly clear whether or not a
certain ‘material particle’ (itself a somewhat vague term) is ‘bonded’ to
others in a certain hunk of matter with sufficient cohesion to qualify as
being a material part of that hunk.
This much, in any case, is perfectly clear: that no animal is to be
identified with any hunk of matter, nor is any mountain to be so identified,
despite the fact that animals and mountains are both material objects. The
truth, rather, is that, at any time at which it exists, an animal coincides with
a certain hunk of matter, as does a mountain. Thus, if Oscar is a certain cat
existing now, then Oscar now coincides with a certain hunk of matter: but
Oscar is not identical with that hunk, because if some material particles are
8
See Locke, An Essay Concerning Human Understanding, ii, xxvii, 3.
18 Reference and predication
removed from it a different hunk of matter will then coincide with Oscar,
but Oscar will remain the same cat, provided that the removal of those
particles does not terminate Oscar’s life. Similarly, Mount Everest pres-
ently coincides with a certain very large hunk of matter. But if that hunk of
matter were to be transported intact to Australia, this would not be a way
of moving Mount Everest to Australia. Rather, it would be a way of
destroying Mount Everest, since the removal process would have left the
Himalayas without that elevated region of terrain that is Mount Everest.
So far in this section, I have said a good deal about criteria of identity,
but nothing yet about sortal persistence conditions. Sortal persistence
conditions are the conditions that an object of a given sort must comply
with in order to continue to exist as an object of that sort. Clearly, the
criterion of identity governing a given sort of objects must be complied
with by any such object if it is to continue to exist at all, but this is not
enough for its persistence as an object of that sort, since its compliance with
the criterion of identity is compatible with its ‘metamorphosis’ into an
object of another sort governed by the same criterion. A simple example to
illustrate this point is the following. Mount Everest is, obviously, currently
a mountain: but if sea levels were to rise dramatically, it could be trans-
formed into an island. Mountains and islands are different sorts of ‘geo-
graphical prominence’ – to coin a phrase for the categorial term applicable
to them both – since an island is necessarily surrounded by water, whereas
a mountain (a terrestrial mountain, at any rate, as opposed to an undersea
one) is necessarily not. A slightly more controversial example involving
animals is provided by the case of a caterpillar and the butterfly into which
it is eventually transformed. It is apparently the case that, in the chrysalis
stage, the internal structure of the caterpillar is completely destroyed and
reorganized, making this unlike the simple development of an amphibian,
for example, from its larval to its adult phase. Nonetheless, throughout the
metamorphosis of the caterpillar into the butterfly, the same life continues,
making the butterfly the same animal as the caterpillar, even if it is not, in
the relevant sense, the same sort of animal. This example is, of course, a
scientific one which has a basis in empirical fact. But fictional examples of
a similar kind are familiar from folklore, as in the story of the frog prince,
in which a human being is transformed into an amphibian. We can make
sense of this story, even while dismissing it as pure fiction, because we can
intelligibly suppose the prince and the frog to participate in the same
uninterrupted life.
Sortal persistence conditions, to the extent that they go beyond the
demands of criteria of identity, are only discoverable by empirical means.
Individuation, reference, and sortal terms 19
But in order to discover those conditions empirically, we must first be able
to grasp the relevant criteria of identity. For example, it is only because we
already know or assume that sameness of life is the criterial relation for
animal identity that we can then go on to determine whether, when a
caterpillar is transformed into a butterfly, this is to be classified as an
individual’s surviving a change of sort or merely as its surviving a change of
phase within the same sort. Consequently, criteria of identity, although
they obviously do not lack empirical content, have the status of ‘frame-
work principles’ rather than mere empirical discoveries. Revising or
amending a criterion of identity is, thus, more in the nature of a methodo-
logical or indeed a philosophical exercise than is revising or amending an
account of the sortal persistence conditions governing a sort or kind, at
least where natural kinds are concerned. A great deal more can and should
be said about such matters, but enough has now been said for the purposes
of the present chapter.
1
See especially my The Four-Category Ontology: A Metaphysical Foundation for Natural Science
(Oxford: Clarendon Press, 2006).
31
32 Reference and predication
understand the first as attributing a habitude or disposition to the subject of
the sentence and the second as attributing an ongoing activity to that same
subject – an activity which constitutes the manifestation or exercise of the
disposition in question. Indeed, the first sentence may be paraphrased as
‘This chemical substance is water-soluble’, in which a dispositional adjective
is explicitly used to describe the subject – such adjectives typically being
formed from the stem of a verb plus a suffix of the form ‘-able’, ‘-ible’, or ‘-
uble’, as in ‘breakable’, ‘fusible’, and ‘(dis)soluble’. It is also notable that
when the subject of a sentence whose verb has the ‘habitual’ aspect is a
kind of thing or stuff – rather than a particular instance of such a kind – as
in ‘Sodium chloride dissolves in water’, the sentence in question expresses
what philosophers of science would call a lawlike generalization, or natural
law (in this case, a chemical law). These points will all be seen to be highly
relevant to the discussion that follows.
which, at the level of universals, attributes stand to kinds. I shall say much
more about this in due course, but already we have the materials to
construct, in Figure 3.1, a version of the ontological square: a diagram that
is enormously useful for the purposes of depicting the formal ontological
relationships in which items belonging to the four different categories
stand to one another.
It may be observed that the upper level of the ontological square,
occupied by kinds and attributes, is the level of universals, while the lower
level of the square, occupied by objects and modes, is the level of
particulars. Similarly, we can call the left-hand side of the square, occupied
by kinds and objects, the side of subjects and the right-hand side of the
square, occupied by attributes and modes, the side of properties – subjects
being entities that are characterized in various ways and properties being
entities that characterize in various ways. Indeed, using this terminology,
we could speak of the four fundamental ontological categories depicted in
the square, beginning at the bottom left-hand corner and proceeding
clockwise around it, as being those of particular subjects, universal subjects,
universal properties and particular properties. In that case, however, it should
be clearly understood that the expressions ‘universal’, ‘particular’, ‘subject’
and ‘property’ do not themselves signify ontological categories as such but
are, rather, cross-categorial terms, just as the all-purpose ontological term
‘entity’ is. Figure 3.2 is another version of the ontological square depicting
this aspect of the four-category ontology.
At this point, it will be useful for me to introduce some logical
symbolism, for in what follows we shall be concerned quite as much with
the logic as with the metaphysics of the four-category ontology. Standard
first-order predicate logic with identity deploys only a single class of
constants and variables – objectual ones – and a way of representing
Two styles of predication – dispositional and occurrent 35
Universals
Kinds Attributes
Subjects Properties
Objects Modes
Particulars
constants a, b, c, . . . α, β, γ, . . . F, G, H, . . . f, g, h, . . .
variables x, y, z, . . . φ, χ, ψ, . . . X, Y, Z, . . . r, s, t, . . .
dispositional exemplification
Kinds Attributes
Objects Modes
occurrent exemplification
attribute G, while ‘af ’ and ‘βG’ say, respectively, that object a is charac-
terized by mode f and that kind β is characterized by attribute G.
The foregoing proposals are presented in more convenient tabular form
in Table 3.1.
Since I do not regard exemplification as being a primitive formal onto-
logical relation, I do not need an undefined symbol to represent it.
Exemplification, as Figure 3.1 implies, is a relation between objects and
attributes. Or, more exactly, there are two different relations of exemplifi-
cation between objects and attributes, corresponding to the two different
routes from the bottom left-hand corner of the ontological square (the
object corner) to the upper right-hand corner (the attribute corner). For
reasons which will become more apparent in due course, I call these two
different species of exemplification dispositional and occurrent
exemplification, which may be depicted on the ontological square as in
Figure 3.3.
Using the expressions ‘D[a, F]’ and ‘O[a, F]’ to say, respectively, that
object a exemplifies attribute F dispositionally and that object a exemplifies
Two styles of predication – dispositional and occurrent 37
attribute F occurrently, I propose that we may define these two species of
exemplification as follows:
D[a, F] ¼df 9φ(φF & a/φ)
O[a, F] ¼df 9r(ar & r/F)
In other words, an object a exemplifies an attribute F dispositionally just in
case a instantiates some kind that is characterized by F, while an object a
exemplifies an attribute F occurrently just in case a is characterized by some
mode that instantiates F.
Kinds Attributes
one-many
many-one
Objects Modes
4
See F. P. Ramsey, ‘Universals’, in his The Foundations of Mathematics and Other Logical Essays
(London: Kegan Paul, 1931). For further discussion, see my The Four-Category Ontology, Chapter 7.
40 Reference and predication
the so-called inference problem concerning the relationship between laws of
nature and particular matters of fact. This latter problem, indeed, is the
one that I shall focus on next.
8
Amongst the people who have raised this point, either in print or in correspondence, are Ryan
Wasserman, Ludger Jansen, and David S. Oderberg. I am particularly indebted to David Oderberg
in this regard.
42 Reference and predication
water are not, after all, different kinds of stuff, just the same kind of stuff
in different physical forms. The change that happens when ice melts is a
phase change, not a substantial change. Consequently, however, we
should not affirm it as a law governing the kind water that water
evaporates – rather, what we should affirm is that water evaporates if, or
when, it is boiling, and this is consistent with our also affirming that water
does not evaporate if, or when, it is frozen. Both laws apply at all times to
any body of water, whether or not it happens to be frozen or boiling (or
indeed neither). What entitles us to say that a piece of ice is not disposed
to evaporate, whereas some boiling water is, is not, then, that they
instantiate different kinds governed by different unconditional laws, but
rather that the single kind that they both do instantiate – water – is
governed by two different conditional laws, and that while one of these
bodies of water happens to satisfy the antecedent condition of one of
these laws, the other body happens to satisfy instead the antecedent
condition of the other law.
Casually speaking, we may indeed say that the sentences ‘Boiling water
evaporates’ and ‘Frozen water does not evaporate’ express laws. But it is at
least potentially misleading to express the laws in question in those ways,
since the complex sortal terms ‘boiling water’ and ‘frozen water’ are not
denotative of different kinds. We do better to express the laws in question
conditionally, as earlier: ‘Water, when it is boiling, evaporates’ and ‘Water,
when it is frozen, does not evaporate’. An adequate system of sortal logic
will reflect this by admitting logical operations on predicates as well as on
whole sentential formulas.9
So how do the foregoing considerations enable us to deal with the
example of Fido, the dog that is idiosyncratically disposed to drink whisky?
They do so in the following way. It is surely reasonable to suppose that
Fido’s peculiar condition is lawfully explicable, rather than just being
miraculous. Presumably, Fido – perhaps on account of some feature of
his past experience or training – has some property, X, such that it is a law
that dogs, if they have X, drink whisky. Fido just happens to be peculiar in
being the only dog to have X.10
9
See further my More Kinds of Being: A Further Study of Individuation, Identity and the Logic of Sortal
Terms (Malden, MA and Oxford: Wiley-Blackwell, 2009), Chapter 11. Note especially, in this
connection, that ‘β(G ! F)’ must not be taken to be logically equivalent to ‘βG ! βF ’: for example,
‘Water evaporates if, or when, it is boiling’ is plainly not equivalent to ‘If water boils, then water
evaporates’.
10
Note that I am assuming here that Fido’s peculiarity is not the upshot of some genetic mutation,
because in that case there might well be grounds for saying that Fido differs in kind from other dogs
Two styles of predication – dispositional and occurrent 43
It will be helpful at this point to introduce a distinction between
essential and accidental dispositions – and to say that Fido possesses
only an accidental disposition to drink whisky. Our earlier definition of
‘D[a, F]’ is, in these terms, really only a definition of essential disposition-
ality. So let us make that explicit by using the formula ‘DE[a, F]’ to say
that a is essentially disposed to be F, defining this exactly as we earlier
defined ‘D[a, F]’:
DE[a, F] ¼df 9φ(φF & a/φ)
Then let us use the formula ‘DA[a, F]’ to say that a is accidentally disposed
to be F, defining this as follows:
DA[a, F] ¼df 9X(O[a, X] & ~DE[a, X] & 9φ(φ(X ! F) & a/φ))
In other words, we say that a is accidentally disposed to be F just in case
there is some attribute, X, such that a occurrently exemplifies X – but is
not essentially disposed to be X – and for some kind, φ, that is instantiated
by a, it is a law that φs are F if they are X. Drawing on the preceding
definition of essential dispositionality, we can simplify this to:
DA[a, F] ¼df 9X(O[a, X] & ~DE[a, X] & DE[a, (X ! F)])
That is to say, a is accidentally disposed to be F just in case a occurrently
exemplifies some attribute, X, such that, although a is not essentially
disposed to be X, a is essentially disposed to be F if it is X.
Here it may be asked why I include the conjunct ‘~DE[a, X]’ in the
definiens of ‘DA[a, F]’. The answer should be evident. It is plausible to
suppose that ‘DE[a, X]’ and ‘DE[a, (X ! F)]’ together entail ‘DE[a, F]’, so
that without this conjunct our definition would allow an object a to be
both essentially and accidentally disposed to be F, which seems absurd. In
fact, this entailment holds only under certain assumptions – notably,
under the assumptions that an object cannot instantiate more than one
kind and that two laws of the form ‘βG’ and ‘β(G ! F)’ together entail one
of the form ‘βF’. See Proof [2] in the Appendix for a proof that the
entailment holds under these particular assumptions, which I shall take
to be correct for present purposes.
This, however, raises a further question. It might be supposed, prima
facie, that ‘O[a, F]’ entails ‘DE[a, F]’ – that if an object a exemplifies an
attribute F occurrently, then a is essentially disposed to be F, rendering our
and that he belongs to a kind, φ, such that it is a law that φs drink whisky. I am grateful to Frédéric
Nef for raising this issue in conversation.
44 Reference and predication
definition of ‘DA[a, F]’ inconsistent. Clearly, we must for this very reason
deny that such an entailment holds – and, indeed, it seems reasonable to
maintain instead that ‘O[a, F]’ entails only the disjunction ‘DE[a, F] _
DA[a, F]’: that if an object a is occurrently F, then a is either essentially or
accidentally disposed to be F. But aren’t we now faced with a regress
problem? For, if the latter entailment holds, then, clearly, given our
original definition of accidental dispositionality, so does the following:
‘DA[a, F]’ entails ‘9X(DA[a, X] & 9φ(φ(X ! F) & a/φ))’. The implication
seems to be that an object can possess one accidental disposition only on
condition of possessing another one.
Fortunately, it seems clear that this potential regress is not inevitably
infinite. For notice that we don’t have it that ‘DA[a, F]’ entails ‘9X(X 6¼
F & DA[a, X] & 9φ(φ(X ! F) & a/φ))’. So it is not in fact strictly true,
given our assumptions so far, that an object can possess one accidental
disposition only on condition of possessing another one. We can, then,
have a case in which ‘DA[a, F]’ is true even though the following is also
true: ‘8X((DA[a, X] & 9φ(φ(X ! F) & a/φ)) ! X ¼ F)’. In such a case,
it would clearly follow that this is true: ‘DA[a, F] & 9φ(φ(F ! F) &
a/φ)’, which is equivalent to ‘DA[a, F] & DE[a, (F ! F)]’. For a proof
of this, see Proof [3] in the Appendix. However, there is no contradic-
tion lurking here, because ‘DA[a, F] & DE[a, (F ! F)]’ is not at all
absurd, in constrast with ‘DA[a, F] & DE[a, F]’. For, presumably, it is a
merely trivial logical truth that any object a is essentially disposed to be
F if it is F. In other words, our definitions of accidental and essential
dispositionality allow that sometimes, at least, it is true that an object a is
accidentally disposed to be F simply because a truth of the following
form obtains: ‘O[a, F] & ~DE[a, F]’ – for this certainly entails the
definiens of ‘DA[a, F]’, given the triviality of the aforementioned truth.
See again the Appendix, Proof [4], for a proof of this. In other, and
presumably more usual, cases, of course, ‘DA[a, F]’ will be true even
though ‘O[a, F]’ is not true.
11
Note, indeed, that if we held ‘Water boils’ to be a law, then, given our previous assumption that
‘Water, if it is boiling, evaporates’ is a law, we would be committed – via the principle that ‘βG &
β(G ! F)’ entails ‘βF ’ – to holding that ‘Water evaporates’ is a law, which we have already denied to
be the case. This confirms that ‘Water boils’ should be taken to be an elliptical expression of a law
which is really conditional in form.
Appendix: proofs
The simple proofs included in this appendix all use the familiar tree method of
proof,12 whereby it may be shown that a set of premises, Г, entails a proposition
p by assuming Г and ~p and showing that a logical inconsistency must result.
An ‘x’ at the foot of a branch indicates that it contains such an inconsistency –
that is, that the branch includes both a certain proposition and that propos-
ition’s negation – and if all branches terminate in this way the proof is complete.
[1] Proof that ‘βF ’ entails ‘8x(x/β ! 9φ(φF & x/φ))’
βF
~"x(x/β ® $φ(φF & x/φ))
a/β
~$φ(φF & a/φ)
"φ(φF ® ~a/φ)
βF ® ~a/β
~βF ~a/β
x x
12
See, for example, Colin Howson, Logic with Trees (London: Routledge, 1997).
Two styles of predication – dispositional and occurrent 47
[2] Proof that ‘DE[a, G] & DE[a, (G ! F)]’ entails ‘DE[a, F]’
βG & a/β
γ(G ® F) & a/γ
βG
a/β
a/γ
β=γ (i)
β(G ® F)
βG & β(G ® F)
βF (ii)
βF & a/β
Notes
(i) This line follows from the preceding two, given, as was proposed in the
main text, that an object cannot instantiate more than one kind.
48 Reference and predication
(ii) This line follows from the preceding one, given, as was proposed in
the main text, that two laws of the form ‘βG’ and ‘β(G ! F)’ together
entail one of the form ‘βF ’.
[3] Proof that ‘DA[a, F]’ and ‘8X((DA[a, X] & 9φ(φ(X ! F) & a/φ)) !
X ¼ F)’ together entail ‘9φ(φ(F ! F) & a/φ)’
DA[a, F ]
"X((DA[a, X] & $φ(φ(X ® F ) & a/φ)) ® X = F )
~$φ(φ(F ® F) & a/φ)
O[a, G ]
~DE[a, G ]
$φ(φ(G ®F ) & a/φ)
[4] Proof that ‘O[a, F] & ~DE[a, F]’ entails ‘9X(O[a, X] & ~DE[a, X] &
9φ(φ(X ! F) & a/φ))’ – the definiens of ‘DA[a, F]’
1
See Barry Smith, ‘Of Substances, Accidents and Universals: In Defence of a Constituent Ontology’,
Philosophical Papers 26 (1997), pp. 105–27, and ‘Against Fantology’, in M. E. Reicher and J. C. Marek
(eds.), Experience and Analysis (Vienna: HPT & ÖBV, 2005).
2
See W. V. Quine, ‘On What There Is’, in his From a Logical Point of View, 2nd edn (Cambridge,
MA: Harvard University Press, 1961).
52 Reference and predication
object/property distinction is really just a relative one, with an nth-order
object being an (n–1)th-order property, for all n > 1. Hence all entities are
‘objects’ on this view, but there are different ‘orders’ of objects, starting
with first-order ones which are not ‘properties’ of anything. And maybe we
can even discern an echo here, however weak, of the Aristotelian notion of
a ‘primary substance’, which is not ‘said of’ anything – of which much
more anon. (Quine himself, of course, was sceptical about including
‘properties’ in our ontology – at least, properties conceived as ‘universals’,
as opposed to items identifiable as sets of first-order objects – on the
grounds that he could see no principled way to individuate them,
rendering them vulnerable to his dictum ‘No entity without identity’.)
The next pernicious aspect of the ‘standard’ view is this: it accommo-
dates no notion of ‘property’ other than as something – though exactly what
is often left obscure – that ‘corresponds’ to a predicate, as in ‘Fa’, where ‘F ’
supposedly expresses a ‘property’ of a. This is despite the fact that we know
that, on pain of contradiction, not every predicate can denote or express a
property – this simply being a consequence of one version of Russell’s
paradox. Take the predicate ‘– is non-self-exemplifying’, which seemingly
applies, for example, to the first-order property of being green (a ‘first-order’
property because it is a property of first-order objects, such as apples and
leaves). ‘Being green (greenness) is not green’ certainly seems to be true,
whence it seems that we can conclude that ‘Being green is non-self-
exemplifying’ is also true. If the example is not liked, another can easily
replace it. But we know that there can be no (second-order) property
(property of a first-order property) of being non-self-exemplifying, since if
there were it could plainly be neither self-exemplifying nor non-self-
exemplifying, giving us a contradiction.
We are also now in the territory of Frege’s notorious paradox of the
concept (that is, first-order property) horse, which he contended was not an
object because it is not ‘saturated’ – the apparent implication being that
the object that we do denote by the singular term ‘(the property of) being a
horse’ is not what is expressed by the predicate ‘– is a horse’.3 The best that
the standard view can do at this point, it seems, is to say that for every
‘property’ of order n – ‘property’ in the sense of semantic value of a
predicate – there is a corresponding proxy-object of order (n þ 1), which
is the semantic value of a corresponding singular term. If that is right, then
it turns out that the object/property distinction isn’t even straightforwardly
3
See Gottlob Frege, ‘On Concept and Object’, in Translations from the Philosophical Writings of
Gottlob Frege, 2nd edn, ed. and trans. P. T. Geach and M. Black (Oxford: Blackwell, 1960).
Ontological categories and categorial predication 53
relative, as was suggested earlier. Rather, we have a series of objects of
ascending ‘orders’ and, distinct but in parallel with that, a series of corres-
ponding ‘properties’. The scheme is something like the following – where,
listed in each column of the table, are typical expressions whose semantic
values are the ‘objects’ and ‘properties’ of successively higher ‘orders’:
Objects Properties
4
Frege himself does, in his own way, treat properties (‘concepts’) as functions, but as functions from
objects to truth-values, and he accordingly regards functions as ‘unsaturated’ entities: see ‘Function
and Concept’, in Geach and Black (eds.), Translations from the Philosophical Works of Gottlob Frege.
Russell speaks instead of ‘propositional functions’, conceived as functions from objects to
propositions: see ‘Propositional Functions’, in Bertrand Russell, Introduction to Mathematical
Philosophy (London: George Allen and Unwin, 1919). But neither view is any more attractive than
the views now under discussion in this paragraph.
Ontological categories and categorial predication 55
But once again, of course, the singular term ‘being identical with Dobbin’
now has to be taken to denote a second-order object, not the first-order
property that is the semantic value of the predicate ‘– is identical with
Dobbin’, at least if we follow Frege in these matters.
Now, at this point I want to cry out that all of this is completely insane
from an ontological point of view that aspires to any seriousness, being
driven entirely by the constraints of a particular style of logical formalism
and the ramshackle ontology that typically accompanies it. We need to sort
out our ontology properly first, and only then shape our formal logic to fit
it, not vice versa. And the first step towards sanity here is to abandon the
idea that there is something special and sacrosanct about the ‘atomic’
logical form ‘Fa’ – Fantology. Fantology, which originates from the
systems of formal logic newly developed by Frege and Russell around the
beginning of the twentieth century, does implicitly rest on certain onto-
logical assumptions, but on rather weak and ill-thought-out ones –
assumptions which seemed to matter little when they were overshadowed
by the sheer logical power of those formal systems. It weakly reflects, thus,
the object/property distinction, whose historical roots lie in traditional
Aristotelian substance ontology – ultimately, in fact, in Aristotle’s early
work, the Categories.5 But in the Categories, Aristotle does not assume a
simple dichotomy between ‘substance’ (or ‘object’) and ‘property’. Rather,
he introduces a more complex fourfold ontological scheme by way of two
key formal notions: those of ‘being said of a subject’ and ‘being in a
subject’. Somewhat obscure though these notions may initially seem to
be, on further investigation they in fact bear rich ontological fruit and
valuable insights into the proper relations between logic and ontology. It is
a worthwhile project, then, to try to clarify them in terms rather more
familiar to present-day metaphysicians, whereupon a comparison between
Fantology and traditional Aristotelian categorial ontology will prove to be
quite revealing.
6
I use a slightly different terminology for these categories in Chapter 3 – a terminology that
I personally prefer – but here I am more concerned to be faithful to the nomenclature of Aristotle
and his Scholastic successors.
7
Here I am, for the sake of simplicity, glossing over an important distinction between properties in
the strictest sense, which are necessarily shared by all primary substances of the same species – by all
individual horses, for instance – and what might be called ‘general accidents’, which are shared by
some but not all such primary substances, an example being Dobbin’s whiteness (since not all horses
are white). I take it that, for the Aristotelian, both warm-bloodedness and whiteness are ‘in’ Dobbin,
but only the former is necessarily ‘in’ all individual horses.
Ontological categories and categorial predication 57
these categories are universals rather than particulars – all particulars
belonging either to the category of primary substances or to the category
of modes. Thus, on this account, although modes are in one sense
‘properties’ of primary substances, they are not predicable of them, which
may sound odd to the ears of present-day metaphysicians. And yet it does
seem to be borne out by what we actually say in English and other natural
languages. When, for instance, we say that Dobbin is white, we are making
no reference to his individual whiteness, even if it is because this individual
whiteness ‘inheres’ in him that whiteness (the universal) is predicable of
him. (Incidentally, it is precisely because present-day metaphysics is
equivocal about the status of ‘properties’, sometimes treating them as
universals and sometimes as particulars in the guise of ‘tropes’, that
I generally prefer to use the term ‘attribute’ to denote items that are ‘both
said of and in a subject’.)
Much more can and should be said about all this, but already we can see
that we have here a much richer ontology than anything that is offered by
Fantology and one that is, despite being categorially more complex,
ontologically far less baroque and extravagant. For example, we have no
grounds now for believing in a potentially infinite hierarchy of ‘orders’ of
objects and properties. Thus warm-bloodedness is said of a subject – it is a
‘predicable’ – but is not itself a subject, in the relevant sense of ‘subject’. Of
course, the word ‘warm-bloodedness’ can be made the grammatical ‘sub-
ject’ of a verb: but that is not the ontological conception of a subject, which
is that of a substance (whether primary or secondary). So, the sentence
‘Warm-bloodedness is a property of horses’, say, shouldn’t be understood
as predicating the (pseudo-)property or attribute of being a property of
horses of the (pseudo-)subject warm-bloodedness. Rather, it is just a round-
about way of saying ‘Horses are warm-blooded’, which expresses a general
truth about the secondary substance or species horse, holding in virtue of
that species’ essence. To regard warm-bloodedness as a subject – a quasi-
substance – would simply and literally be a category mistake, on the
Aristotelian view. Thus, on this approach, we need have no truck with
‘second-order logic’ (at least as it is ordinarily conceived) and other such
formal monstrosities. And we aren’t faced with Frege’s hideous ‘paradox’ of
the concept horse. For that paradox is really just an artefact of an impover-
ished logical formalism and its misconceived ontological assumptions.
So, what would a better logical formalism look like? First of all, if we are
going to follow the Aristotle of the Categories, we shall obviously need four
distinct classes of ‘material’ (that is, non-formal or non-logical) expressions,
not just the two (‘F ’ and ‘a’) of standard first-order predicate logic, in order
58 Reference and predication
to denote (1) primary substances, (2) secondary substances, (3) properties
or attributes, and (4) individual accidents or modes. Let us then adopt the
following notation for this purpose:8
8
Compare Table 3.1 of Chapter 3, which adopts the same symbolism.
9
See my The Four-Category Ontology: A Metaphysical Foundation for Natural Science (Oxford:
Clarendon Press, 2006). Although I broadly follow Aristotle in that book, I do not there deploy
his being said of/being in distinction, preferring instead to make use of a three-way distinction
between instantiation, characterization, and exemplification. I still prefer the latter approach –
which I adopt also in Chapter 3 – but am using this opportunity to explore further an approach that
is closer to Aristotle’s own.
10
It should be noted, incidentally, that these formation rules differ from those provided in Table 3.1 of
Chapter 3, since in that chapter I was appealing to my own preferred formal ontological relations of
instantiation, characterization, and exemplification, instead of employing Aristotle’s being said of/
being in, or predicable/inherent distinction.
Ontological categories and categorial predication 59
11
Such variables are provided for in Table 3.1 of Chapter 3, but again it must be remarked that Table 1
of Chapter 3 employs different formation rules for constructing atomic sentences from those now
being utilized.
62 Reference and predication
this we must be careful to remember that the latter are not subjects (that is,
they are not substances, either primary or secondary). We can have names
for them and variables ranging over them, but that should not lead us to
treat them as quasi- or pseudo-substances, which is the implicit mistake of
those philosophers and logicians who think that ‘second-order’ logic, by
quantifying into predicate position, incurs ontological commitment to a
new class of ‘objects’, over and above the ‘first-order’ objects that are the
supposed values of ‘first-order’ variables. This, I think, is just a horrible
ontological muddle on their part. Properties, in the form of both attributes
(universal properties) and modes (particular properties), should certainly
be accorded a place in any sensible ontology, but it is wrong to reify or
hypostatize them. This is because they are essentially ‘inherent’ entities,
always being ‘in’ a subject (substance) – or, as we might otherwise put it,
always being only aspects of substances, or ‘ways substances are’, never
substances in their own right.
Note, incidentally, that the formal logical language sketched above is in
fact only classifiable as a ‘first-order’ language in the standard sense, despite
the fact that it includes names for and variables ranging over properties, in
the shape of both attributes and modes. This is because it does not involve
‘quantification into predicate position’ in the standard sense. (Moreover, in
model-theoretic terms, it does not invoke a domain which includes all
subsets of the domain of first-order objects quantified over by a standard
first-order language and hence a domain whose cardinality is necessarily
greater than that of the latter, even if there are infinitely many such first-
order objects; a domain of quantification for a formalized language like
mine could perfectly well include only a denumerable infinity of entities,
so long as it included some entities belonging to each of the four basic
ontological categories.) Now, the latter phenomenon – quantification into
predicate position – is exemplified in a formula of so-called ‘second-order’
logic such as ‘9F(Fa)’. But, in standard predicate logic, the ‘F ’ in ‘Fa’ is
supposed to represent a predicate, understood as an ‘incomplete’ expression
such as ‘– is white’. By contrast, ‘Fa’ in my formalization of Aristotelian
categorial ontology serves to express the proposition that the attribute
F(ness) inheres in, or is predicable of, the primary substance a. ‘F ’ and ‘a’
here are thus to be thought of as two terms, each naming an entity
belonging to a certain ontological category. In standard predicate logic,
‘F ’ is not a term in this sense at all, since it doesn’t serve to name any entity
but just represents what remains of a complete predicative sentence when a
name is removed from it – as, for example, ‘– is white’ is what remains
when the name ‘Dobbin’ is removed from the sentence ‘Dobbin is white’.
Ontological categories and categorial predication 63
Another way to make this point is to say that, in the standard formalism,
the ‘F ’ in ‘Fa’ has an implicit ‘is’ of predication built into it, whereas in my
formalism ‘F ’ simply denotes a certain attribute and its predicability of a is
represented formally not by a further symbol (although this could certainly
be done), but rather by means of the post-positioning convention whereby
‘a’ is placed immediately after ‘F ’.
12
Consider, thus, the proposal that ‘primary substance’ denotes a genus to which all primary
substances belong. Then it turns out that, since all genera belong to the category of secondary
substance, the sentence ‘Primary substance is a secondary substance’ must be in some sense true. But
I find it very hard to make any clear sense of this.
Ontological categories and categorial predication 65
But how, it might now be asked, could there be any real use for such
statements of categorial predication, given that the categorial distinctions
are already built into the symbolism of the formalized language (as they are
not, perhaps, in a natural language such as English)? The answer is that we
want our language to be capable of talking about pure ontology. For that,
we need also names and variables which are categorially neutral, in order to
say things such as ‘Every primary substance has at least one mode inherent
in it’. Thus, using ‘e’ (for ‘entity’) as a new type of ontologically neutral
variable, we could express the last-mentioned sentence formally in this
manner: ‘8e1(e1P ! 9e2(e2M & e1e2))’. (Here we are using unrestricted
quantifiers, of course, and the proposal would be that these are only to
be used in statements of pure ontology; note also that, in the formula just
stated, ‘e1e2’ must be construed as expressing inherence rather than predica-
tion, given the formation rules and the typing of e1 and e2 as P and M
respectively.) Statements of pure ontology would all be like this and in this
way we could envisage the construction of a formal, axiomatizable theory of
pure ontology, which would constitute an a priori science analogous to
various branches of pure mathematics. In the formal theory of pure
ontology, no specific entity of any category would be referred to, such as
Dobbin or whiteness: all statements would concern the categories them-
selves and relationships obtaining between their members purely in virtue
of their categorial status, as in the case of the sample statement cited above.
Of course, for present purposes I am assuming that the ‘correct’ formal
theory of pure ontology will be a characteristically ‘Aristotelian’ one, of the
kind sketched earlier. But that assumption is not vital to the notion of pure
ontology as such. Indeed, one can envisage alternative (or even just
different) systems of pure ontology, just as there are different branches of
pure mathematics. (Some systems of ontology, for instance, include the
basic category of event, whereas in the ‘Aristotelian’ ontology there is no
room for such entities save in the guise, perhaps, of modes of primary
substances.) However, one should not take the analogy with pure math-
ematics too far, since the latter consists of theories which do make
reference to specific entities of certain types, such as the natural numbers,
whereas pure ontology is perfectly general or ‘topic-neutral’ in its subject
matter.
To repeat an earlier point of great importance, categorial predications
are – as Wittgenstein might at one time have remarked – true, when they
are true, simply in virtue of their ‘logical grammar’. Thus, ‘aP’ can be seen
to be true simply by inspection of its logical form. In that sense, such a
truth has and requires no ‘truthmaker’, if by a ‘truthmaker’ we mean some
66 Reference and predication
entity which, by existing, makes it true. ‘aP’ doesn’t even require the
existence of the primary or individual substance a to make it true: thus,
‘Dobbin is a primary substance’ can be known to be a true – indeed, a
necessarily true – categorial predication whether or not Dobbin is known
to exist. I do want to allow, of course, that from ‘aP’ we may validly infer
‘9e(eP & e ¼ a)’, and vice versa. Thus, I am happy to allow that ‘Some
primary substance is (identical with) Dobbin’ is just a long-winded way of
saying ‘Dobbin is a primary substance’. But recall that I am rejecting the
claim that ‘Some primary substance is (identical with) Dobbin’ is logically
equivalent to ‘Dobbin exists and is a primary substance’ or, more generally,
that ‘9e(eP & e ¼ a)’ is logically equivalent to ‘(E!a & aP)’. Dobbin’s
existing is no doubt logically equivalent to some existing primary sub-
stance’s being (identical with) Dobbin, but not just to Dobbin’s being a
primary substance, since the latter is just an a priori truth arising from an
ontological necessity concerning the correct ontological categorization of
any such item as Dobbin is conceived to be, whether or not Dobbin
actually exists.
part ii
Identity
chapter 5
1
See, for example, P. F. Strawson, ‘Entity and Identity’, in H. D. Lewis (ed.), Contemporary British
Philosophy, Fourth Series (London: George Allen and Unwin, 1976), reprinted in his Entity and
Identity and Other Essays (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1997).
2
In this chapter, I shall in part – but only in part – be covering the same territory as I did earlier in
Chapter 2. But here I shall be approaching the notion of a criterion of identity with much greater
emphasis on its history and its logical involvements, thereby extensively supplementing the
characterization of this notion that I provided in Chapter 2, with a view to making its
philosophical credentials more secure. Another important difference between the present chapter
and Chapter 2 is that, in the present chapter, I lay no emphasis, as I did in Chapter 2, on the
distinction between sortal and categorial terms, focusing here almost exclusively on the former.
69
70 Identity
acts of reference to individuals and thus ultimately ground our very
understanding of the notions of individuality and reference. My answers
to these two questions will be ‘yes’ and ‘no’ respectively.
I should mention that my discussion of criteria of identity in this
chapter will keep a much closer eye on the history of this topic than was
the case in Chapter 2, as well as looking in much more depth at certain
logical problems to which the notion of a criterion of identity appears to
give rise, including questions concerning the logical form of such criteria,
which has certainly been subject to much debate.
3
See Gottlob Frege, Die Grundlagen der Arithmetik (1884), translated as The Foundations of Arithmetic
by J. L. Austin (Oxford: Blackwell, 1953), §§62 ff. The implication in question may be found in
Michael Dummett, Frege: Philosophy of Language, 2nd edn (London: Duckworth, 1981), pp. 73
and 545.
4
See John Locke, An Essay Concerning Human Understanding, ed. P. H. Nidditch (Oxford: Clarendon
Press, 1975), ii, xxvii. ‘Consist’ is Locke’s own choice of word: see §9.
5
Frege, The Foundations of Arithmetic, §62. The word which Austin translates as ‘criterion’ is
Kennzeichen. By contrast, Ludwig Wittgenstein uses the word Kriterium throughout the
Philosophical Investigations, which may cast some doubt on the close affinity mooted by Dummett
in Frege: Philosophy of Language, p. 73. Of course, precisely what Wittgenstein himself meant by
‘criterion’ is the subject of a vast secondary literature, to which I have no wish to contribute here.
What is a criterion of identity? 71
The reason why I say that the intended scope of this thesis is debatable is
that §62 of the Grundlagen, in which it appears, is the first of a group of
sections introduced by the heading ‘To obtain the concept of Number, we
must first fix the sense of a numerical identity’, and §62 itself opens with
the question ‘How, then, are numbers to be given to us, if we cannot have
any ideas or intuitions of them?’ – all of which might suggest that the thesis
in question is intended to be restricted to symbols used to signify abstract
rather than concrete, perceptible objects. One commentator who certainly
does not interpret the intended scope of the thesis in this narrow way,
however, is Michael Dummett, who expressly regards it as intended to
apply to all significant singular terms, and indeed endorses the thesis under
this liberal interpretation.6
6
See Dummett, Frege: Philosophy of Language, pp. 73 ff. and 545 ff.
72 Identity
Now, one problem with this model is that it seems to be applicable only in
the case of a special class of singular terms – those formed by means of
functional expressions like ‘the direction of’. (Other examples might be
‘the shape of’ and ‘the colour of’, the former indeed being explicitly
mentioned by Frege himself.) Proper names, strictly so called, clearly do
not belong to this class – for example, ‘London’ and ‘Napoleon’. Neither
do certain other sorts of singular terms, such as personal pronouns.
Surprisingly, however, this has not prevented some writers from trying
to force all criteria of identity into the mould of Frege’s example, even
though it is not clear that Frege himself would have endorsed this. An
instance of this approach may be found in a paper by Timothy
Williamson.7 Thus we find Williamson supposing that the form of a
criterion of personal identity is to be extracted from the schema (A) by
allowing the variables ‘x’ and ‘y’ to range over person-stages and stipulating
that ‘f (x)’ means ‘the person of whom x is a stage’. But what reason at
all have we to suppose that persons must be like directions in being objects
to which we need (primarily, at least) to refer by means of functional
expressions? Directions are, if you will, essentially directions of something –
in Frege’s treatment, they are directions of lines. But persons are not – or,
at any rate, are not at all obviously – essentially persons of anything at all.
Indeed, the supposed parallel between ‘the direction of line x’ and ‘the
person of whom x is a stage’ seems entirely spurious, even if one counten-
ances – as I do not – such objects as ‘person-stages’. For an expression of
the latter form is, on the contrary, more naturally assimilable to one such
as ‘the line of which x is the direction’. In short, what is being overlooked is
a certain order of ontological dependency seemingly implicit in Frege’s
discussion of the example of directions: the parallelism of lines can provide
a criterion of identity for the directions of lines only because directions are
ontologically – and indeed conceptually – dependent on lines, in a way in
which lines are not on directions.8 But this immediately raises a difficulty
for anyone seeking to extend schema (A) to names of what we might, in an
Aristotelian vein, call (primary) substances, since these – assuming them to
7
See Timothy Williamson, ‘Criteria of Identity and the Axiom of Choice’, Journal of Philosophy 83
(1986), pp. 380–94.
8
This might perhaps be questioned, at least when directions are thought of in a perceptual, subject-
centred way (as when one compares the directions of two objects as seen from a certain location).
Obviously, however, Frege is not thinking of directions in this sense. But, in any case, the real issue is
not whether Frege was right about directions but whether the account that he gives of them, right or
wrong, can legitimately be extended to objects such as persons.
What is a criterion of identity? 73
exist – are precisely objects standing in no such relationship of ontological
dependency with other objects.9
11
The expressions ‘substantival’ and ‘adjectival’, used in this way, are introduced by P. T. Geach – in
emulation of Aquinas – in his Reference and Generality, 3rd edn (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press,
1980), p. 63. In similar vein, P. F. Strawson distinguishes between what he calls sortal and
characterizing universals: see his Individuals: An Essay in Descriptive Metaphysics (London:
Methuen, 1959), p. 168.
12
In Chapter 2, I adopted the convention of subscripting ‘R’ with the sortal symbol ‘φ’, to emphasize
the fact that different sortals are very often associated with different criterial relations. Here I shall
take that point for granted.
13
In what follows, I shall speak of ‘type-(A)’ and ‘type-(B)’ identity criteria. It has, however, now
become customary to use the terms ‘two-level identity criterion’ and ‘one-level identity criterion’ for
this purpose: for further discussion, see my ‘One-Level versus Two-Level Identity Criteria’, Analysis
51 (1991), pp. 192–4. I shall avoid this terminology here because I think that it is potentially
misleading in certain ways.
What is a criterion of identity? 75
this may prompt some doubts about the possibility of formulating criteria
of identity in the mould of schema (B) that are applicable to concrete
objects, such as men. But that (B) is an advance on (A) is suggested by the
fact that, whilst we can apparently recast Frege’s criterion of identity for
directions along the lines of schema (B) – by saying that if x and y are
directions, then x is identical with y if and only if x and y are directions of
lines that are parallel14 – we cannot, it seems, similarly recast the foregoing
criterion of identity for sets along the lines of schema (A). (We can of
course say, along these lines, such things as that the set of which x is the
sole member is identical with the set of which y is the sole member if and
only if x is identical with y: but that, obviously, does not take us very far.)
Even so, the superiority of schema (B) is perhaps not altogether clear-cut,
because when Frege’s criterion of identity for directions is recast along the
lines of schema (B), it is no longer the case that the logically necessary and
sufficient condition for the identity of directions is expressed without
reference to – or, more accurately, without quantification over – directions.
This is a point to which I shall return later in more general terms, when we
look into the question whether this feature of type-(B) criteria of identity is
a fatal defect in them. To anticipate my eventual conclusion, I do not
think that it is.
16
See Donald Davidson, ‘The Individuation of Events’, in his Essays on Actions and Events (Oxford:
Clarendon Press, 1980), p. 179. Later, Davidson withdrew his support for this criterion in response to
some criticisms by W. V. Quine: see his reply to Quine in Ernest LePore and Brian McLaughlin (eds.),
Actions and Events: Perspectives on the Philosophy of Donald Davidson (Oxford: Blackwell, 1985); and, for
further discussion, my A Survey of Metaphysics (Oxford University Press, 2002), pp. 224–8.
17
Davidson denies that there is any formal circularity in his proposed criterion. And that is certainly
correct if we state the criterion as follows: 8x8y((event(x) & event(y)) !(x ¼ y $ (8z(cause(z, x) $
cause(z, y)) & 8z(effect(z, x) $ effect(z, y))))). But – as we shall soon see – this is not to the point.
A criticism similar to mine is developed by J. E. Tiles in his Things that Happen (Aberdeen
University Press, 1981), pp. 1 ff.
18
See further my ‘Impredicative Identity Criteria and Davidson’s Criterion of Event Identity’, Analysis
49 (1989), pp. 178–81.
What is a criterion of identity? 77
Perhaps the point against Davidson can be made more graphically by
saying that the set-theoretical principle which is more truly analogous to
his proposed criterion of event identity is the principle that if x and y are
sets, then x is identical with y if and only if x and y include exactly the same
sets – which is an undoubtedly valid principle, since every set includes itself
(that is, has itself as a subset) and mutually inclusive sets are identical.
Now, the latter principle will patently not serve as a criterion of identity for
sets, precisely because it transparently already presupposes an account of the
identity conditions of sets. The corresponding presupposition in David-
son’s proposed criterion is not perhaps quite so transparent as this, but
emerges once it is noted that to say that x and y have the same causes and
effects is – for Davidson, at least, since the only notion of causation that he
admits is that of event causation – just to say that the same events are causes
of both x and y and that the same events are effects of both x and y.
The important lesson to issue from this, then, is that, in formulating a
criterion of identity in conformity with schema (B), the greatest care must
be taken not to presuppose already, in framing the criterial relation R, an
account of φ identity, where ‘φ’ is the general term whose associated
criterion of identity is being sought. The problem is that such a presuppos-
ition may be buried fairly deeply, so that no explicit or formal circularity
can be discerned in the statement of the proposed criterion. However, the
next question that we need to address is whether such a presupposition
might somehow be built into the very nature of any type-(B) identity
criterion, with fatal consequences for all criteria of that type.
19
In point of fact – and this is crucial – I have not urged precisely this: I have urged only that the
criterial relation, R, should not presuppose an account of φ identity, not that the criterial condition,
Rxy, should be (fully) interpretable independently of a grasp of φ identity. The significance of this
distinction will emerge shortly.
78 Identity
criteria quite generally – that there will inevitably be just such a presuppos-
ition, precisely insofar that, in order to interpret the expression ‘Rxy’, we
shall need to be in a position to identify individual φs as the values of the
variables ‘x’ and ‘y’. We are returning then to the point acknowledged
earlier, that type-(B) criteria of identity carry reference to φs – or, more
accurately, involve quantification over φs – in their expression of the
criterial condition for φ identity. And the crucial question is: does this
matter?
To make the matter more specific, suppose that we are attempting to
formulate a criterion of identity for men and that, having framed one along
the lines of schema (B), we go on to try to apply our criterion in a
particular instance involving the use of two singular terms – as it might
be, ‘Napoleon’ and ‘Bonaparte’. According to our criterion, we purport to
know that if a and b are men, then a is identical with b if and only if a
stands to b in the criterial relation R (whatever that might be). But, it may
be objected, unless we already understand the use of the singular terms ‘a’
and ‘b’ – and thereby grasp whatever criterion of identity it is that governs
that use, in accordance with the Fregean thesis – we cannot be in a
position to assess the truth or falsehood of the proposition that a stands
to b in the relation R. Hence our alleged criterion of identity cannot in fact
be correct, since our very capacity to understand and apply it already
presupposes a grasp of whatever criterion of identity it is that governs the
use of a singular term to refer to an individual man.
21
This is a slight oversimplification because, for instance, someone possessing the general concept of
an animal but not that of a dog is still in a position to make singular reference to particular dogs by
means of singular terms incorporating in their sense only the general concept of an animal – for
example, a singular term such as ‘the animal in that cage’. This is because ‘dog’ shares the same
criterion of identity as ‘animal’. But, for that very reason, the oversimplification is not inimical to the
line of argument that I am developing. See Chapter 2 for further discussion relevant to this point.
84 Identity
extend the range of his objects of singular reference – and consequently, it
seems, his familiarity with that practice must ultimately be grounded in the
application of criterionless general concepts. In short, if this line of
reasoning is correct, it cannot be through a grasp of type-(B) criteria of
identity that a speaker or thinker first engages in the practice of singular
reference.
22
My ensuing discussion of Dummett’s position is based on my understanding of what he says in his
Frege: Philosophy of Language, chiefly Chapter 16, and in his The Interpretation of Frege’s Philosophy
(London: Duckworth, 1981), Chapter 11.
23
See Dummett, The Interpretation of Frege’s Philosophy, p. 216.
24
For an elaborate attempt to develop principles of this sort, see Tiles, Things that Happen. Compare
also Strawson, Individuals, pp. 202 ff. and pp. 214 ff. – although Strawson, like Dummett, declines
to go into details.
What is a criterion of identity? 85
that’ – accompanied, if need be, by appropriate ostensive gestures – where
‘φ’ is a sortal term.25 Thus at one point he mentions the case of a child
pointing simultaneously to the head and tail of a cat and saying ‘This is the
same cat as that’. And, while accepting that it is not by learning to do this
correctly that a child starts to learn the use of the word ‘cat’, Dummett
nonetheless clearly thinks that acquiring an ability to make such identifi-
cations with the aid of simple demonstratives constitutes an important
staging post in the progression towards a full competence to make singular
reference to objects – objects such as cats. It is enough to know this much
about Dummett’s doctrine to enter into the following discussion.
It is evidently vital to the viability of any position such as Dummett’s
that the use of a sentence involving a demonstrative may be significant and
unambiguous even though no act of singular reference is effected through
its utterance. It is also essential to his position that a sortal term may be
significantly employed in a way which does not presuppose a grasp of
whatever criterion of identity is associated with it – a thesis which Dum-
mett does in fact also uphold but which I shall not seek to challenge here.26
Now, Dummett does explicitly maintain that a statement of the form
‘That is F ’ – where ‘F ’ may or may not be a sortal – may be significant and
unambiguous even though no identifiable object is singled out by the
demonstrative ‘that’, of which the property F is then predicated.27 He even
finds support for this contention in the opening sections of Wittgenstein’s
Philosophical Investigations, concerning ostensive definition.28 I find this
contention unattractive and the evidence of support for it in those sections
of the Philosophical Investigations tenuous. Wittgenstein, it seems to me, is
saying rather that in certain contexts it is quite unnecessary for a speaker to
supplement a demonstrative by a sortal expression in order to effect an
unambiguous act of singular reference intelligible to his intended audience
because the context of utterance itself – including here such things as the
activities that the speaker and audience may be co-operatively engaged in,
such as playing a game of chess – suffices to eliminate any possible
ambiguity.29
25
See Dummett, The Interpretation of Frege’s Philosophy, p. 217.
26
See Dummett, Frege: Philosophy of Language, p. 537, where he says, ‘I can understand when it is right
to say, “That is a book”, before knowing any criterion for the identity of books’.
27
See Dummett, Frege: Philosophy of Language, pp. 572 ff.
28
See Dummett, Frege: Philosophy of Language, pp. 577 ff.
29
See Ludwig Wittgenstein, Philosophical Investigations, trans. G. E. M. Anscombe (Oxford:
Blackwell, 1958), § 31.
86 Identity
This aside, Dummett’s contention concerning statements of the form
‘That is F ’ is clearly thought by him to be related quite intimately to
certain suggestions of Strawson’s concerning the possibility of a ‘feature-
placing’ language altogether lacking the apparatus of singular reference.30
The implication here is that there is a use of a statement of the form ‘That
is F ’ in which it merely conveys the sort of information that might be
conveyed more artificially by saying something like ‘It is F over there’,
where the ‘it’ is no more referential than the ‘it’ in ‘It is raining’.31 I submit
that this is not a correct observation about the adult use of demonstratives
in English, which use is, I believe, directed only at singular reference.32
Furthermore, the highly speculative thesis that there is a stage in an infant’s
linguistic development at which its use of demonstratives does and must
operate like this – a thesis to which Dummett seems to be committed – is,
I believe, neither borne out by empirical evidence nor defensible by a priori
philosophical argument. For what work has been done by developmental
psychologists such as T. G. Bower on early infant perception and related
motor activity strongly suggests in fact that, from their very earliest
months – and certainly before any significant level of linguistic ability
has been achieved – human infants perceptually individuate discrete
objects in their environment and do so in a way which indicates the
exercise of an innate cognitive capacity.33 That being so, however, there
is simply no reason to suppose that, in order to teach a child the correct use
of the linguistic apparatus of singular reference (including the referential
use of demonstratives), one must graft this onto a more primitive level of
linguistic achievement which altogether excludes the use of that apparatus.
The teacher can simply rely on the child’s innate cognitive capacity to
30
See Dummett, The Interpretation of Frege’s Philosophy, p. 217, and Strawson, Individuals, pp. 202 ff.
There is indeed in general a close affinity between Dummett’s and Strawson’s views concerning the
conceptual underpinnings of singular reference, although Strawson seems less committed to making
any empirically significant claim about actual human language mastery or acquisition. I have chosen
to concentrate on Dummett’s account partly for this reason, but more because of his explicit
espousal of what I have called the (full-blown) Fregean Thesis.
31
Compare Dummett, Frege: Philosophy of Language, p. 577.
32
It may be felt that certain uses of demonstratives in questions clearly falsify this claim – for instance,
questions of the type ‘What is that?’ (uttered, perhaps, in conditions of poor visibility), where it
seems that, far from a singular reference being made, one is being sought. I think that various
responses are available to me here, such as that reference is being made to a phenomenal appearance
assumed by the speaker to be intersubjectively perceptible, and that what is really being requested is
a description of the cause of the appearance. However, the issue is not crucial to the points that
I shall go on to develop in this chapter, so I shall not dwell on it here. I do go into such matters more
fully in my ‘Sortals and the Individuation of Objects’, Mind and Language 22 (2007), pp. 514–33.
33
See T. G. Bower, Development in Infancy (San Francisco: Freeman, 1974) and A Primer of Infant
Development (San Francisco: Freeman, 1977).
What is a criterion of identity? 87
individuate perceptually at least some of the very same objects to which the
teacher himself may make demonstrative reference for teaching purposes.
And this is where Wittgenstein’s remarks, cited earlier, are very important.
For if the teacher, ostending an object and saying ‘That is F ’ or ‘That is a’,
in order to begin to teach the child the correct use of the predicate ‘F ’ or
the singular term ‘a’, always needed to supplement the demonstrative – or,
in the earliest stages, the bare ostensive gesture – with a sortal term already
understood by the child, then clearly his task would be impossible. What
renders it achievable, however, is not – as Dummett would have it – that
demonstratives and ostensive gestures may be significantly used in certain
contexts without serving to make singular reference, but rather that the
teacher can rely at least sometimes upon the contextual disambiguating
factor of an identity between the object that he is ostending and that on
which the child’s perceptual attention is concurrently fixed – that is, upon
the fact that he and the child are simultaneously individuating the same
object, he ostensively and linguistically and the child perceptually.
The question now arises, if the foregoing account is broadly correct, of
whether the innate individuative capacities that I am ascribing to prelin-
guistic infants are capacities whose exercise necessarily involves, on the part
of the infant, the application of criteria of identity, grasped in some non-
linguistic mode of thought – or, at least, in a mode of thought which does
not involve the understanding of any fragment of a natural language, such
as English. To propose this would be to differ from Dummett not least on
the score of whether all humanly employed criteria of identity are
language-based and culturally transmitted. It would also be to reject as
otiose the notion of what I earlier called a ‘primitive Dummettian criterion
of identity’, supposedly possessing a logical form different from that of
either schema (A) or schema (B). But it would not, of course, commit one
to a rejection of the Fregean thesis in its full-blown form, since it would
merely imply that some of our criteria of identity are innate, not learned –
not that some of our sortal terms and concepts are entirely criterionless.
However, there are philosophers who would, I am sure, endorse precisely
the latter view, where an infant’s deployment of certain sortal concepts is
concerned. They would propose that an infant’s most basic cognitive
capacities to individuate certain perceptible objects in its physical environ-
ment depend not on an implicit intellectual grasp of any principle deserv-
ing of the title ‘criterion of identity’, but simply on certain sorts of sensory
and motor behaviour, which are evolved features of the human brain and its
control mechanisms – in particular, perceptual tracking behaviour and
correlated motor responses such as reaching and grasping. On this sort of
88 Identity
account, the infant’s most primitive acts of object individuation are, thus,
not at bottom mental acts in any intellective sense, but instead essentially
bodily ones. And then the claim would be that an infant incapable of such
primitive bodily acts of object individuation could not subsequently be
trained in the correct use of the referential apparatus of any natural
language.
Now, at one time I had considerable sympathy for a view of this sort,34
partly because I was persuaded by the line of argument sketched in section
8 above for the necessity of there being at least some humanly graspable
sortal concepts that are criterionless, as part of an account of how human
subjects can acquire mastery of the linguistic apparatus of singular
reference.35 And it seemed to me then that the sort of view just outlined
would very naturally and plausibly serve this apparent theoretical need.
However, it has since become evident to me that the ‘perceptual tracking’
model of infant object individuation is deeply flawed, because it cannot
really manage to explain what it has to explain – namely how prelinguistic
infants can succeed in unambiguously singling out certain discrete objects in
their physical environment. Since I have discussed these matters exten-
sively in Chapter 2 above, I shall say no more about them now. As for the
line of argument that led me into sympathy with the ‘perceptual tracking’
model, that too now seems to me to be unpersuasive. For, once again, we
can plausibly appeal to the innateness of certain relevant cognitive capaci-
ties. Only if one assumed that the cognitive capacities essential for mastery
of the linguistic apparatus of singular reference had to be acquired from
experience and training would there be pressure to suppose that these must
be grafted onto some more basic set of cognitive capacities. But if a
capacity for singular thought about discrete environmental objects can be
taken to be innate, as the work of Bower and others suggests, then,
evidently, nothing more cognitively ‘basic’ need be presumed in order to
explain the subsequent mastery of that linguistic apparatus.
Let me now return briefly to Dummett. His position, it seems clear, is
founded at least partly on his open espousal of what he himself calls the
34
See the original paper on which much of this chapter (of the same title) is based, my ‘What Is a
Criterion of Identity?’, Philosophical Quarterly 39 (1989), pp. 1–21.
35
I should mention that I do have certain quite different reasons, of a logico-metaphysical kind, for
supposing that at least some sortal concepts must be criterionless, notably the concept of a person:
see my More Kinds of Being: A Further Study of Individuation, Identity and the Logic of Sortal Terms
(Malden, MA and Oxford: Wiley-Blackwell, 2009), Chapters 2 and 8. I am still persuaded that these
reasons are correct, as I shall make clear in Chapter 6 below. But I now think that it is crucial to
disentangle these considerations from the ones that – as I now believe – misled me concerning the
prerequisites of infant language mastery.
What is a criterion of identity? 89
‘amorphous lump’ picture of reality, whereby reality is ‘carved’ into
discrete objects by us, entirely through our application of ultimately
language-based criteria of identity.36 This prevents him from countenan-
cing – indeed, constrains him to dismiss as naive – the view that human
infants are capable of enjoying perceptually based singular thoughts prior
to their acquisition of a mastery of the apparatus of singular reference
embodied in some culturally transmitted natural language, and hence
creates for him a spuriously difficult problem as to how that mastery is
achieved. But, for reasons that I shall speak more about in Chapter 6,
I consider that the ‘amorphous lump’ picture of reality is not merely
empirically unsupported but fundamentally incoherent.
38
I am setting aside here, for present purposes, the considerations mentioned in an earlier footnote
that lead me to think that certain sortal terms and concepts, notably the concept of a person, are
criterionless. In their case, however, my claim is only that a properly non-circular criterion of identity
is not available, and I am happy to concede – indeed, to insist – that there are important constitutive
principles substantively constraining the identity conditions of individuals falling under such
concepts, so that these identity conditions are not just ‘brute’, in the sense that nothing
informative can be said about them.
What is a criterion of identity? 91
associated motor responses, such as reaching and grasping, without the
benefit of any implicit intellective grasp of such an object’s distinctive
identity conditions.
Now, it is evidently possible that the sortal concepts featuring in an
infant’s most basic individuative practices are not precisely to be identified
with any of the sortal concepts still exercised by an adult equipped with a
full mastery of a natural language. To that extent, we should not expect to
be able to capture any one of these infantile sortal concepts exactly in terms
of any normal English expression, such as ‘hunk of matter’, since the latter
has for adults connotations which it would be unreasonable or implausible
to project upon infant subjects. This acknowledgement, however, does not
in principle undermine my earlier stance on the question of how infants
might at first be introduced to the use of singular terms in natural
language, even if it makes the matter a little more complicated. There is
no question of my having to go back on my repudiation of the ‘amorphous
lump’ picture of reality, only a question of a slight degree of mismatch
between infantile and adult individuative schemes.
12 conclusions
The main conclusions that I have arrived at in this chapter may now be
summarized as follows.
1 It is no defect in type-(B) criteria of identity that they involve quantifica-
tion over the very sorts of individuals for whose identity they provide a
criterion, although in framing such criteria every caution must be taken
not to presuppose already an account of the identity conditions of the
individuals concerned. On the other hand, type-(A) criteria of identity,
while they do – unnecessarily, as it turns out – avoid quantification over
the sorts of individuals for whose identity they supply a criterion, are for
that very reason severely limited in their scope, in a way in which type-
(B) criteria are not: which is why I favour schema (B) over schema (A) as
representing the general canonical form of a criterion of identity.
2 Contrary to what Dummett suggests, we need not suppose that a child’s
initiation into the use of singular terms in natural language must proceed
on the basis of its acquired grasp of identity criteria in principle expressible
in a language altogether lacking the resources for singular reference or
quantification over individuals – a ‘feature-placing’ language. For we may
plausibly contend instead that such initiation merely exploits the child’s
innate capacities for the perceptual individuation of objects – capacities
whose exercise plausibly involves, moreover, at least the implicit intellec-
tual grasp of certain basic criteria of identity, rather than just purely bodily
perceptual ‘tracking’ behaviour and correlated motor responses. Hence,
like Dummett, we may consistently endorse the Fregean thesis as holding
with complete universality, but without conceding to him that this
requires us to recognize a class of identity criteria which conform neither
to schema (A) nor to schema (B). Nor, of course, need we accede to
Dummett’s ‘amorphous lump’ picture of reality.
3 Consequently, we are at liberty to claim – at least so far as any consider-
ation arising in this chapter is concerned – that singular terms in natural
language are always governed by criteria of identity and that such criteria
may always be expected to be capable of expression in conformity with
schema (B). The only caveat required here is that we should not
overestimate the precision of the criteria governing actual ordinary-
language usage, which may well fall short in many cases of the logical
ideal. It remains a legitimate task for philosophers, however, to propose
revisions to and refinements of those actual-language criteria, in order to
bring them into closer proximity with that ideal.
chapter 6
1
See P. T. Geach, Reference and Generality, 3rd edn (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1980), pp.
181 and 216. I criticize Geach’s view in my Kinds of Being: A Study of Individuation, Identity and the
Logic of Sortal Terms (Oxford: Blackwell, 1989), Chapter 4, and again in my More Kinds of Being:
A Further Study of Individuation, Identity and the Logic of Sortal Terms (Oxford and Malden, MA:
Wiley-Blackwell, 2009), Chapter 4.
96 Identity
what does the relative identity theorist purportedly speak here when he
says that they are at once the same set but different ordered sets? We must
take him to be speaking of the ordered sets ha, bi and hb, ai, for it was
these items that were introduced for purposes of illustration. But what
then is the it with which they are purportedly identical, qua sets? Presum-
ably, the set {a, b}. However, that set – being a set – does not possess its
members in any order, even though we refer to its members in a certain
order when we designate it by the expression ‘{a, b}’. But any ordered set,
such as the ordered set ha, bi, does possess its members in a certain order –
in this case, a comes before b in the order in which they are possessed.
Consequently, the set {a, b} cannot be the same ordered set as the ordered
set ha, bi, for it lacks an essential property of any ordered set, namely that
of possessing its members in a certain order.
Someone may worry at this point that I am neglecting the well-known
method of ‘reducing’ ordered sets to sets, proposed independently by
Wiener and Kuratowski.2 According to this proposal, the ordered set
ha, bi may be ‘reduced’ to the set {a, {a, b}}, while the ordered set hb, ai
may similarly be ‘reduced’ to the set {b, {b, a}}. This proposal preserves, as
it should, the non-identity of the ordered sets ha, bi and hb, ai, by
reducing them to different sets, and so provides no comfort for the relative
identity theorist. But ‘reduction’ is an unfortunate choice of term in this
context, for it is clear that all that the proposal really does is to provide, for
any ordered set, a set which can be regarded as its unique representative.
The ordered set ha, bi certainly cannot be identified with its representative,
the set {a, {a, b}}, because the former has only a and b as its members,
whereas the latter has as its members a and the pair {a, b}. If – as we may
readily presume for the sake of the example – neither a nor b is a set, then
it follows that ha, bi and {a, {a, b}} differ, for instance, in that the latter,
but not the former, possesses a set amongst its members.
To this it may be replied, perhaps, that ‘membership’ must be
understood in two different senses – the ordinary set-theoretical sense,
and another sense which applies only to ordered sets. Let us differentiate
between these putative senses of ‘membership’ by distinguishing between
being a memberS and being a memberO. Then it may be said that b is a
memberO – but not a memberS – of {a, {a, b}}, in virtue of the fact that
{a, b} is a memberS of {a, {a, b}}. Or, more exactly, that b is the second
memberO of {a, {a, b}}, in virtue of the fact that a and {a, b} are the only
2
See Patrick Suppes, Axiomatic Set Theory (New York: Dover, 1972), p. 32. The version that I discuss
here is Kuratowski’s.
Identity conditions and their grounds 97
two membersS of {a, {a, b}}. It might then be thought that nothing now
stops us from simply identifying the ordered set ha, bi with the set {a, {a,
b}}, because we are no longer entitled to insist that ha, bi does not have the
pair {a, b} as a member: true enough, it doesn’t have it as a memberO, but –
it may now be said – it does have it as a memberS. The fact is, however, that
nothing in the concept of the ordered set ha, bi connects it in any
significant way with the pair {a, b}. The only connection between these
entities was forged, entirely arbitrarily, by the Wiener–Kuratowski pro-
posal itself. It is not as though that proposal provides the only tenable way
of ‘reducing’ ordered sets to sets – indefinitely (indeed, infinitely) many
other ways would work just as well. In other words, it is no part of the
essence of the ordered set ha, bi that it bears any ontological relationship
with the pair {a, b}. By contrast, it is very much a part of the essence of the
set {a, {a, b}} that it bears such a relationship with that pair, for the very
identity of that set is determined by its members, one of which is this pair.
In short, the Wiener–Kuratowski proposal, construed as providing a
genuine reduction of ordered sets to sets, whereby the former may be
identified with sets of a certain kind, does not respect the essential differ-
ences between sets and ordered sets.
5
See Hilary Putnam, ‘Why There Isn’t a Ready-Made World’, in his Realism and Reason: Philosophical
Papers, Volume 3 (Cambridge University Press, 1983).
6
See Bernard Williams, Descartes: The Project of Pure Enquiry (Harmondsworth: Penguin, 1978), p.
64. Williams himself, of course, is not a conceptualist anti-realist, holding that what he calls an
‘absolute conception’ of reality is possible.
7
See Michael Dummett, Frege: Philosophy of Language, 2nd edn (London: Duckworth, 1981), p. 563.
8
See David Wiggins, Sameness and Substance Renewed (Cambridge University Press, 2001), p. 6.
Identity conditions and their grounds 109
Not only is this view deeply anti-realist; it is also, as I have said, doubtfully
coherent. For those who philosophize in these terms rarely stop to think
about how their doctrine is supposed to accommodate thinkers, their
thoughts, and the concepts that they deploy. For these, too, are putative kinds
of entities, whose essences, according to the conceptualist doctrine, must
like all others be constituted by ‘our’ concepts of them. It is at this point that
the conceptualist manifestly paints himself into a corner from which there is
no escape. There simply is no coherent position to be adopted according to
which all essences are constituted by concepts, because concepts themselves
are either something or else nothing – they either exist or they do not. If they
don’t, then conceptualism is out of business. But if they do, then they
themselves have an essence – what it is to be a concept. The conceptualist, to
be consistent, must say that the essence of concepts is constituted by our
concept of a concept. But what could this mean? And what could it mean,
according to conceptualism, to say that the concept of a concept ‘has
application’ – that there are concepts? I don’t believe that conceptualism
has any intelligible answer to such questions. The lesson, I take it, is that at
least some essences must be mind-independent, in a way that conceptualism
denies. The next task is to try to understand what this entails and how it can
be possible.
10
See further my The Possibility of Metaphysics: Substance, Identity, and Time (Oxford: Clarendon
Press, 1998), Chapter 6.
Identity conditions and their grounds 115
and whose identities, therefore, do not depend on the identities of entities
of any other kind. Entities of such kinds will have primitive identity and,
accordingly, no informative and non-circular statement of their identity
conditions – no criterion of identity – will be forthcoming in their case.
This does not mean, however, that it will be impossible to determine
whether – and if so, when – persisting entities of such kinds come into
being and go out of existence. For if, as it seems they must, such entities
have distinctive causal powers, we may be able to tell, with some degree of
confidence, whether or not such an entity continues to exist by seeing
whether or not its distinctive causal powers continue to be exercised. This,
in effect, is how in practice we tell whether or not something like an
electron continues to exist or has been destroyed. The distinctive causal
powers of an electron are grounded in its essential properties, such as its
distinctive rest mass, unit negative charge and spin of one-half. When, for
example, an electron is ‘annihilated’ by interacting with a positron, their
opposing charges cancel each other and their combined mass is converted
into a burst of energy. From these effects we can judge that nothing
remains that possesses the distinctive rest mass and charge of an electron
and that, therefore, the original electron has ceased to exist. This is despite
the fact that an electron, being a simple or non-composite entity, is not
essentially dependent for its existence or identity on any other particular
entity of any kind.
I am now in a position to give a summary answer to the most pressing
question that has arisen in this chapter: How are identity conditions
grounded? The answer, I propose, is that the identity conditions of entities
of any kind K are grounded in the essence of Ks – what it is to be a K. The
essence of a kind K is not, however, a further entity of any kind, neither
abstract nor concrete. As rational beings, we must be able to grasp the
essences of at least some kinds of entities. Indeed, it is part of the essence of
a rational being that it has such a grasp. In grasping the essence of entities
of a kind K, we come to grasp their identity conditions and may – albeit,
very often, only with some effort – be able to formulate an explicit criterion
of identity for Ks, which specifies their identity conditions in an informa-
tive and non-circular way. Such a criterion will make reference to, or
quantify over, entities of other kinds involved in the essence of Ks, unless
K is a fundamental kind of entity – in which case, its essence will not
involve entities of any other kinds and no informative and non-circular
criterion of identity for Ks will be forthcoming. It is knowledge of essences
that grounds all of our modal knowledge of what is metaphysically possible
or necessary, including our knowledge of what sorts of changes an entity
116 Identity
can or cannot survive or persist through, if indeed it is an entity in whose
nature it is to persist. The persistence conditions of such an entity are not
grounded in its material constitution, if it is a material object, but in its
general essence. This is why it is a mistake to find it at all puzzling that two
distinct material objects, of different kinds and possessing different identity
conditions, may simultaneously be composed by the same material con-
stituents, as in the case of the bronze statue and the lump of bronze of
which it is ‘made’. Our individuative concepts – our concepts of those kinds
that have individual objects as their instances, distinguishable in principle
from one another – are ways of thinking of entities of those kinds that
accurately reflect their general essences, thus involving a grasp of their
identity conditions and thereby an understanding of what makes one
particular instance of such a kind distinct from another. The essences of
such kinds are not constituted by our individuative concepts, but are in
general entirely mind-independent. Conceptualism – the doctrine that all
such essences are constituted by our individuative concepts – leads inexor-
ably to an incoherent global anti-realism and must be rejected. However, it
is not enough, in general, to grasp the essence of entities of a kind K in
order to know whether or not entities of that kind actually exist. For that
purpose, we must appeal to empirical evidence – at least in the case of
concrete, as opposed to abstract, entities. At the same time, to the extent
that such empirical inquiry always depends upon a grasp of essences, there
is an unavoidable a priori element in our knowledge of the existence of
entities of any kind whatever.
part iii
Modality
chapter 7
I have said a great deal about identity in previous chapters and now want to
develop in more depth the transition, already begun in Chapter 6, to an
explicit focus on modality – that is, the important family of notions that
includes those of necessity, possibility, and contingency. However, before
going into the heart of such notions, there are some important issues in
philosophical logic that I want to discuss concerning the relationship
between identity and modality. More specifically, I want to examine
certain controversial modal claims concerning identity that have been
much debated in the philosophical literature of the past forty years or so,
particularly the alleged necessity of identity – that is, the claim that truths of
identity are necessarily true. Paralleling this claim, as we shall shortly see, is
another often-made claim about identity: that truths of identity can never
be vague or indeterminate, other than merely as a consequence of impreci-
sion in our language or thought about the world. The world itself, it is often
maintained, cannot be vague or contain ‘vague objects’. Both of these
claims about identity – that it can never be contingent and never be
vague – are ones whose alleged proofs, I shall argue, are open to question
and indeed open to question for very similar reasons. The alleged proofs,
I shall try to show, are subtly question-begging and try to make logic
deliver answers to metaphysical questions that logic is inherently incapable
of answering. I shall start with the issue of vagueness and identity and,
along the way, show how this parallels the issue of necessity and identity.
119
120 Modality
purpose was to demonstrate, by means of a reductio ad absurdum argu-
ment, that there cannot fail to be a fact of the matter as to whether an
object a is identical with an object b – so that his direct concern seems
really to be with vague identity rather than with vague objects.2 It will prove
instructive in due course to compare Evans’s argument with another
notorious ‘proof’ of a metaphysically contentious doctrine, the Barcan–
Kripke proof of the necessity of identity. More precisely, Evans’s argument
may fruitfully be compared with a closely related proof of the non-
contingency of identity. It seems not implausible, indeed, that Evans had
the Barcan–Kripke proof partly in mind as a model for his own argument,
given the obvious similarities between them and the notoriety of the
Barcan–Kripke proof at the time at which he was writing.
As has just been said, what is at stake in Evans’s paper is the possibility
of there failing to be a fact of the matter as to whether an object a is identical
with an object b. That this is so seems clear from his opening remark – ‘It
is sometimes said that the world might itself be vague’ – for he contrasts
vagueness of this supposed kind with ‘vagueness being a deficiency in our
mode of describing the world’, with which he clearly has no quarrel. In
other words, his target is what may be called ontic rather than semantic
vagueness – although whether ‘vagueness’ is really an apt word in the ontic
case is a moot point. As we have already observed, it is also a moot point
whether, in the light of its contents, the title of Evans’s paper is apt in
representing it as concerning the question whether there can be vague
objects. It seems that the real question is, rather, whether there can be
objects whose identities are ontically indeterminate: that is, once again,
whether there can ever fail to be a fact of the matter as to whether an object
a is identical with an object b.
Here, however, another preliminary observation is in order before we
turn to Evans’s argument itself. This concerns Evans’s curious remark that
the idea whose coherence he seeks to call into question is ‘the idea that the
world might contain certain objects about which it is a fact that they have
fuzzy boundaries’. This remark confirms that Evans’s concern is with ontic
rather than with semantic vagueness, but it is puzzling in its suggestion
that the idea of ontic indeterminacy of identity is necessarily connected
with the idea of the possession of ‘fuzzy boundaries’ – by which one
assumes is meant ‘fuzzy’ spatial or temporal boundaries. It is true that cases
2
A closely related argument was independently developed by Nathan Salmon – see his Reference and
Essence (Oxford: Blackwell, 1982), pp. 243–6. See also David Wiggins, Sameness and Substance
Renewed (Cambridge University Press, 2001), pp. 162–3. But I shall concentrate on Evans’s version.
Identity, vagueness, and modality 121
of semantic vagueness frequently concern the drawing of such boundaries.
For instance, it may be said that our use of the name ‘Mount Everest’ does
not determine a precise spatial boundary between terrain that is part of the
mountain so named and terrain that is not. In this case, there are many
different ways of drawing a precise spatial boundary, all of which are
equally consistent with our use of the name: the ‘fuzziness’ lies not in
any boundary that may be drawn, for each boundary that may be drawn is
a precise one – rather, it lies in our language, which does not determine
that any given one of these precise boundaries must be drawn in preference
to any other. But it is far from obvious that ontic indeterminacy of identity
would have to be grounded in a genuine ‘fuzziness’ in boundaries them-
selves, quite independent of language – as though boundaries could
somehow really be ‘smeared out’. It isn’t even clear what could be meant
by saying this. Fortunately for the advocate of ontic indeterminacy of
identity, however, making sense of such a notion is not crucial to the
position that he seeks to defend. As we shall see in section 5 below,
the most plausible cases of ontically indeterminate identity do not turn
on the issue of boundaries at all. However, Evans’s assumption – that ontic
indeterminacy of identity would have to have something to do with ‘really’
fuzzy boundaries – is widely shared and has done much to perpetuate
scepticism about the possibility of such indeterminacy.3
Now let us turn to Evans’s remarkably simple argument. His ‘proof’
contains just five lines. It begins with the following proposition, assumed
for reductio:
(1) ▽(a ¼ b)
Evans indicates that (1) is to be understood as expressing the assumption
that the sentence ‘a ¼ b’ is of indeterminate truth-value, with the idea of
indeterminacy being expressed by the sentential operator ‘▽’. So, it seems,
(1) may read as ‘It is indeterminate whether it is true that a ¼ b’, or, more
concisely, ‘It is indeterminate whether a ¼ b’. And as was implied earlier,
we may take this to be another way of saying ‘There is no fact of the matter
as to whether a ¼ b’. For the purposes of reductio, (1) is being assumed to
be true, so it is being assumed that there is a fact of the matter as to
whether there is no fact of the matter as to whether a ¼ b. We shall return
to this point later, since it bears on something that Evans says at the very
end of his paper.
3
See Rosanna Keefe, Theories of Vagueness (Cambridge University Press, 2000), p. 15.
122 Modality
To explain and justify the next step of his proof, Evans says that ‘(1)
reports a fact about b which we may express by ascribing to it the property
“λx[▽(x ¼ a)]”’(I use here, for clarity, the more familiar lambda symbol in
place of Evans’s circumflex). Because Evans takes (1) to report this (pur-
ported) fact and expresses the (purported) fact by
(2) λx[▽(x ¼ a)]b
he takes it that (2) follows from (1). I shall assume that (2) may be read as ‘b
has the property of being such that it is indeterminate whether it is
identical with a’, or equivalently as ‘b has the property of being such that
there is no fact of the matter as to whether it is identical with a’.
Next, Evans asserts as a premise this:
(3) ~▽(a ¼ a)
which we may read as asserting ‘It is not indeterminate whether a is
identical with a’, or equivalently as ‘There is a fact of the matter as to
whether a is identical with a’. Presumably, what justifies this premise is
that it is true, and so a fact, that a is identical with a, whatever object a
might be. For, surely, if it is indeed a fact that a is identical with a, then
there is a fact of the matter as to whether a is identical with a – the fact in
question being the fact that a is identical with a.
Evans then supposes that, just as (2) follows from (1), so the following
follows from (3):
(4) ~λx[▽(x ¼ a)]a
Modelling our reading of (4) on that of (2) above, (4) may be read as ‘It is
not the case that a has the property of being such that it is indeterminate
whether it is identical with a’, or equivalently as ‘It is not the case that a has
the property of being such that there is no fact of the matter as to whether
it is identical with a’.
Finally, Evans says that ‘by Leibniz’s law, we may derive from (2) and
(4)’ the conclusion of his proof:
(5) ~(a ¼ b)
Evans clearly has in mind here the version of Leibniz’s law which asserts
that if an object a is identical with an object b, then a has any property that
b has and vice versa. Contraposing, if a does not have some property that b
has, then a is not identical with b. Now, in lines (4) and (2) respectively it is
stated that a does not have a certain property – the property of being such
that it is indeterminate whether it is identical with a – and that b does have
Identity, vagueness, and modality 123
this property. Consequently, it may be inferred from (2) and (4) by the
contrapositive of Leibniz’s law – as above interpreted – that a is not
identical with b, which is what (5) states.
(5) itself does not directly contradict (1), so we do not yet formally have a
reductio ad absurdum proof of the falsehood of (1). To make good this
seeming deficiency, Evans makes the following final remark, which has
given rise to some puzzlement and a great deal of discussion:
If ‘Indefinitely’ and its dual, ‘Definitely’ (‘△’) generate a modal logic as strong as
S5, (1)–(4) and, presumably, Leibniz’s law, may each be strengthened with a
‘Definitely’ prefix, enabling us to derive
(5*) ∆~(a ¼ b)
which is straightforwardly inconsistent with (1).
The first oddity about this remark is that we were initially prompted to
read the sentential operator ‘▽’ not as ‘indefinitely’, but as something like
‘it is indeterminate whether’. In fact, the nearest that Evans comes to
spelling out exactly how we are to read a formula like (1) is when he says,
by way of introducing (1) as an assumption for reductio, ‘Let “a” and “b” be
singular terms such that the sentence “a ¼ b” is of indeterminate truth-
value’. This actually suggests a reading of (1) as ‘The sentence “a ¼ b” is of
indeterminate truth-value’. However, this is a metalinguistic statement,
whereas Evans quite explicitly intended his symbol ‘▽’ to be a sentential
operator; that is to say, an expression that forms a sentence of a given
language when it is prefixed to another sentence of the same language. This
is why it seems natural to read (1) as was proposed earlier, namely as ‘It is
indeterminate whether (it is true that) a is identical with b’.
However, another possible reading would be something like ‘It is
indeterminately true that a is identical with b’, where this is seen as being
analogous to the modal statement ‘It is contingently true that a is identical
with b’.4 And, indeed, this analogy might superficially seem advantageous
if one wants, as was suggested earlier, to draw certain parallels between
Evans’s proof and the Barcan–Kripke proof of the necessity of identity.
But this reading requires us to understand (1) as expressing, so to speak, a
way in which it is (supposedly) true that a is identical with b – to wit,
‘indeterminately’, as opposed to ‘determinately’. It is not inconceivable
that Evans himself did have something like this in mind.5 And, indeed, a
4
Compare Terence Parsons, Indeterminate Identity: Metaphysics and Semantics (Oxford: Clarendon
Press, 2000), pp. 45 and 204 ff.
5
Compare again Parsons, Indeterminate Identity, pp. 204 ff.
124 Modality
reading like this might well be appropriate if semantic vagueness were at
issue, because a ‘supervaluational’ treatment of such vagueness would
supply a reading of ‘It is indeterminately true that a is identical with b’
as saying that the sentence ‘a is identical with b’ is true on some but not all
precisifications of the references of the names ‘a’ and ‘b’.6 After all, it may be
said, being true on some precisifications is, at least in some sense, a way of
being true. However, we are now taking it that semantic vagueness is not
what is at stake – and it is not easy to make clear sense of an ‘ontic’
analogue of such ‘indeterminate truth’. We are taking the interest of
Evans’s proof to lie in its apparent demonstration that there cannot fail
to be a fact of the matter as to whether or not an object a is identical with
an object b. And this is undoubtedly how most other philosophers have
viewed it too. So we shall carry on viewing it in this way.
But now the question is whether, if we view the proof in this way, we
can make sense of Evans’s final remark, quoted above. At first sight, at
least, it doesn’t look as though we can. For if ‘▽’ is read as ‘it is indeter-
minate whether (it is true that)’, or ‘there is no fact of the matter as to
whether’, how could this sentential operator be understood to have a dual,
‘△’, in the sense familiar in modal logic? The modal operators ‘◊’ and ‘□’
are ‘duals’ in this familiar sense, with each being definable in terms of the
other together with negation – so that ‘◊p’ is equivalent to ‘~□~p’ and ‘□p’
is equivalent to ‘~◊~ p’. Obviously, Evans’s remark, quoted above, that (5*)
is ‘straightforwardly inconsistent with (1)’ presumes an analogous equiva-
lence between ‘▽p’ and ‘~△~p’, because only if (1) is thus equivalent to
‘~△~(a ¼ b)’ does it contradict (5*). But if we read Evans’s other operator,
‘△’, as ‘it is not indeterminate whether (it is true that)’, or ‘there is a fact of
the matter as to whether’, do ‘▽’ and ‘△’ turn out to be suitably inter-
definable with the help of negation? Is it the case that ‘▽p’ is equivalent to
‘~△~p’ on this reading? That is to say, is ‘It is indeterminate whether p’
equivalent to ‘It is not not indeterminate whether not p’? (The double
negation here is required, of course, since we have elected to read ‘△’ as ‘it
is not indeterminate whether’.)
Now, ‘It is not not indeterminate whether not p’ is obviously equiva-
lent, by double negation elimination, to ‘It is indeterminate whether not
p’, so our question reduces to one of whether this is in turn equivalent to
‘It is indeterminate whether p’. But then, surprising though this might
have seemed prior to investigation, it turns out that our question does in
fact have a positive answer. For it seems clear that ‘It is indeterminate
6
Compare David Lewis, ‘Vague Identity: Evans Misunderstood’, Analysis 48 (1988), pp. 128–30.
Identity, vagueness, and modality 125
whether p’ is true if and only if ‘It is indeterminate whether not p’ is true.
That is to say, it seems clear that, as we have proposed otherwise to express
it, ‘There is no fact of the matter as to whether p’ is true just in case ‘There
is no fact of the matter as to whether not p’ is true. For if there was a fact of
the matter as to whether not p, this would either be because it was a fact
that not p or because it was a fact that p – and, either way, it would
follow that there was likewise a fact of the matter as to whether p. We see,
then, that even if Evans’s operators ‘▽’ and ‘△’ are interpreted in the
fashion that we have proposed, they do turn out to be interdefinable with
the help of negation in a manner that exactly parallels the interdefinability
of the dual modal operators ‘◊’ and ‘□’.
However, this is by no means enough to confirm Evans’s speculation, in
his final remarks, that his two operators ‘generate a modal logic as strong as
S5’. So we are not in a position to endorse his attempt to turn his
derivation of (5) from (1) and (3) into an argument with a conclusion that
is ‘straightforwardly inconsistent with (1)’, namely (5*), by ‘strengthening’
(1) to (4) and Leibniz’s law with the prefix ‘△’. At the same time, it also
appears that nothing so ambitious as this is needed in order to turn Evans’s
derivation of (5) from (1) and (3) into a formal reductio ad absurdum proof,
given the interpretation of the operators ‘▽’ and ‘△’ now being proposed.
For it appears that on this interpretation we can simply extend the existing
derivation of (5) from (1) and (3) by going on to derive (5*) directly from
(5). Recall once more that, as we are now proposing to interpret it, ‘△’ may
be read as ‘it is not indeterminate whether (it is true that)’, or equivalently
as ‘there is a fact of the matter as to whether’. Now, for the purposes of
reductio, (1) is assumed be true. As Evans himself says, it supposedly
‘reports a fact’. And we may agree with Evans that premise (3) is true –
indeed, that it is logically true. But if the derivation of (5) from these is
valid, then it is truth-preserving, so that if (1) and (3) are true, so too is (5).
But if (5) is true, then it is true, and so a fact, that a is not identical with b,
in which case there is a fact of the matter as to whether a is not identical
with b: which is what (5*) says. So we may extend Evans’s original
argument by deriving (5*) directly from (5). To be sure, to call (5*) a
strengthening of (5), given our proposed reading of Evans’s sentential
operator ‘△’, would be highly misleading. For on this interpretation it is
not the case that (5*) entails but is not entailed by (5) and so (5*) is not in
this sense ‘stronger than’ (5). The question at issue now, however, is
whether the original derivation of (5) from (1) and (3) may legitimately
be turned into a derivation of (5*) from (1) and (3), given the proposed
interpretation of the operator ‘△’ – and it seems clear enough that it can.
126 Modality
And then all that is further needed in order to turn Evans’s original
argument into a formal reductio of (1), on this interpretation, is the
interdefinability of ‘▽’ and ‘△’ that we established earlier, for this allows
us to derive the negation of (1) from (5*).
Let us now briefly sum up our findings so far. It seems that Evans’s
sentential operator ‘▽’ can and should be interpreted as meaning ‘it is
indeterminate whether (it is true that)’, or equivalently as ‘there is no fact
of the matter as to whether’, and that on this interpretation it is, with the
help of negation, interdefinable with his other sentential operator, ‘△’, so
that ‘▽p’ is logically equivalent to ‘~△~p’. It also appears that, with ‘▽’
and ‘△’ thus interpreted, Evans has no problem in turning his original
argument from (1) and (3) to (5) into a formal reductio ad absurdum proof
of the impossibility of ontic indeterminacy of identity, subject only to the
following condition: that his original argument – which we shall hence-
forth refer to simply as ‘Evans’s argument’ – is itself valid. We shall shortly
see, however, that there is reason to suppose that Evans’s argument is not
in fact valid.
8
For this see Saul A. Kripke, ‘Identity and Necessity’, in M. K. Munitz (ed.), Identity and
Individuation (New York University Press, 1971). Of course, one important formal difference is
that Kripke’s proof does not involve property abstraction. However, in section 4 below we shall be
looking at a ‘stripped-down’ version of Evans’s argument which likewise avoids property abstraction,
so this difference is not as important as might at first be imagined.
9
On these parallels, compare David Wiggins, Sameness and Substance Renewed, p. 163, and Rosanna
Keefe, ‘Contingent Identity and Vague Identity’, Analysis 55 (1995), pp. 183–90.
Identity, vagueness, and modality 129
contingently identical is to say that they are identical but might have
been non-identical. This is a supposition that one might attempt to
reduce to absurdity by means of an argument formally paralleling Evans’s,
simply by reading his operator ‘▽’ as meaning ‘it is contingent that’, on
the understanding that ‘It is contingent that p’ is equivalent to ‘p and
possibly not p’. Thus reinterpreted, Evans’s argument may be para-
phrased as follows. Suppose that (1) it is contingent that a is identical
with b. Then it follows that (2) b possesses the property of being such
that it is contingently identical with a. However, (3) it is not contingent
that a is identical with a. And from this it follows that (4) a does not
possess the property of being such that it is contingently identical with a.
But from (2) and (4) it follows by Leibniz’s law that a is not identical
with b, which contradicts our initial assumption that a is contingently
identical with b (recalling here, once more, that ‘a is contingently
identical with b’ means ‘a is identical with b but a might not have been
identical with b’).
One thing to notice about this argument for the non-contingency of
identity (hereafter ‘NCI’) is that it does not need to be supplemented in
the way that Evans’s argument had to be in order to turn the latter into a
formal reductio ad absurdum proof, because when Evans’s operator ‘▽’ is
read as ‘it is contingent that’ the conclusion (5) directly contradicts the
assumption (1). Although the arguments are formally indistinguishable,
then, their status as formal proofs is not the same.
Notwithstanding this difference between Evans’s argument and the
argument for NCI, both may be charged with committing the same error
of formal inference. The error, if error it is, lies in the inference of (4) from
(3). And, indeed, the Barcan–Kripke proof of the necessity of identity may
also be charged with committing an exactly similar logical error.10 In the
latter case, the erroneous step, according to this line of objection, is the
inference of ‘a possesses the property of being such that it is necessarily
identical with a’ from ‘It is necessary that a is identical with a’. Since this
step – the Barcan–Kripke step, as I shall call it – is much more familiar
than, although formally exactly like, the step from (3) to (4) in Evans’s
proof and the argument for NCI, let us focus on it for the time being.
Now, of course, a general complaint may be raised against the Barcan–
Kripke step that it moves from a proposition ontologically committed
merely to the existence of a certain object, a, to one ontologically commit-
ted in addition to the existence of a certain property – and, indeed, to what
10
Compare my ‘On the Alleged Necessity of True Identity Statements’, Mind 91 (1982), pp. 579–84.
130 Modality
may appear to be a very strange kind of property. However, general
complaints of this sort, for what they are worth, need not at present
concern us, either with regard to the Barcan–Kripke proof or with regard
to Evans’s argument and the argument for NCI. We need have no hostility
towards properties in general and – while it must be acknowledged that we
cannot, on pain of paradox, suppose every meaningful predicate to express
a property – it would be tendentious to respond to the arguments now
under consideration by contending that the properties that they invoke
simply do not exist. Certainly, if one can find fault with the arguments
without needing to deny the existence of the properties, this will be a more
satisfactory method of rebuttal.
So what, exactly, might be thought to be wrong with the Barcan–Kripke
step? Just the following. Even if it is conceded that ‘It is necessary that a is
identical with a’ entails that a possesses some corresponding property, it
may be disputed what property this is – and, of course, there might be
more than one such property. One property that a might be thought to
possess in virtue of the necessary identity of a with a is the property of
being necessarily identical with itself or, more simply put, the property of
necessary self-identity. This, clearly, is a property that a could share with
many other things – plausibly, indeed, it is one which it does and must
share with every other thing. Obviously, this is a quite different property
from the property of being necessarily identical with a which, it seems
evident, a alone can possess. The question then is whether a may be said to
possess the latter property simply in virtue of the fact that it is necessary
that a is identical with a.
To answer this question, we need to think about the grounds of
necessary truths. Some necessary truths are grounded purely in the laws
of logic, which are themselves necessary truths.11 An instance of a logical
law need not itself qualify as a logical law, but it will inherit the necessity of
the law of which it is an instance. The law of the reflexivity of identity –
that everything is identical with itself – is a necessary truth. And an
instance of the law, such as the singular proposition that a is identical
with a, inherits that necessity. Hence it is necessary that a is identical with
a. Against this it may be objected that if a is a contingent being, then a
does not exist in every possible world, whence it cannot be true in every
possible world that a is identical with a. There are various ways to reply to
this objection – for instance, by championing a kind of ‘free’ logic that
allows a singular proposition to be true even if its singular terms are
11
Compare my The Possibility of Metaphysics, pp. 13 ff.
Identity, vagueness, and modality 131
‘empty’, thus denying that it entails the corresponding existential propos-
ition. According to such an approach, that a is identical with a may be true
even in a possible world in which a does not exist, so that even if a is a
contingent being, it may nonetheless be affirmed that it is necessary that a
is identical with a. Another strategy is to say that, where a is a contingent
being, the proposition that a is identical with a is necessary in a restricted
sense, namely in the sense that it is true in every possible world in which a
exists. But whatever we say, it seems clear that we should say that some sort
of necessity attaches to the fact that a is identical with a and that the
ground of this necessity lies in the laws of logic.
What is by no means clear, however, is that the fact that a possesses the
property of being necessarily identical with a – supposing there to be such
a fact – is one whose ground could be held to lie solely in the laws of logic.
The problem is that it would, it seems, be a substantive metaphysical fact of
an essentialist character, whereas the laws of logic are properly conceived as
being metaphysically neutral. No similar concern attaches to the thought
that the laws of logic can ground the fact that a, like anything else,
possesses the property of being necessarily self-identical. The laws of logic
can ground facts about the properties of individuals, but only, it would
seem, facts involving properties that are perfectly general in this way. The
putative property of being necessarily identical with a is not, however, a
perfectly general property. On the contrary, it is a property which, if it
exists, a alone can possess. And the existence of such properties and their
attribution to individual objects are matters for metaphysics, not logic.
The problem with the Barcan–Kripke step, then, is that it purports to
extract a metaphysical fact from a purely logical one. Our proposed
objection to Evans’s argument and the argument for NCI is just the same:
that each of them tries to pull a metaphysical ‘rabbit’ out of a purely logical
‘hat’. This, then, is what seems objectionable about the inference from (3)
to (4) in each case.
Here it may be protested that there can be nothing logically suspect
about that inference because it simply exploits the formal device of so-
called property abstraction, which is equally at work in the inference from
(1) to (2). However, here we may pose a dilemma for the defendants of the
arguments. Either property abstraction is simply a notational reformu-
lation, so that ‘λx[Fx]a’ is just an elaborate way of rewriting ‘Fa’, or else the
property abstract ‘λx[Fx]’ is seriously intended to denote a property, in a
way in which the predicate in ‘Fa’ need not be supposed to do. It should be
borne in mind here, as always, that not every predicate can automatically
be taken to denote a property, on pain of contradiction. If so-called
132 Modality
property abstraction is not understood necessarily to involve the denotation
of a property, then it may indeed be no more than an elaborate rewriting
device with a highly misleading name. But in that case lines (2) and (4) of
Evans’s argument and the argument for NCI are simply superfluous and
we should evaluate the arguments in the form in which they would be left
without them. This we shall do in a moment. On the other hand, if
property abstraction is understood necessarily to involve the denotation of
a property, then neither the inference from (1) to (2) nor the inference
from (3) to (4) can be construed as a perfectly innocent logical step that
cannot be subject to the sort of objection that was raised earlier.
13
See Kripke, ‘Identity and Necessity’, p. 136.
14
See my ‘On the Alleged Necessity of True Identity Statements’.
134 Modality
formed have exactly the same meaning. When two expressions with
different meanings are each combined with another univocal expression,
to form in each case a meaningful sentence, it would seem surprising that
this could result in their forming sentences with exactly the same meaning.
It is certainly not obvious that ‘a is not contingently self-identical’ and ‘a is
not contingently identical with a’ are synonymous, but both of these
English sentences are supposed to be representable by the same symbolic
formula, ‘~▽(a ¼ a)’, which is assumed to be univocal. And the closest
English equivalent to this formula, ‘It is not contingent that a is identical
with a’, is assumed just to be another way of saying exactly the same thing.
But all of this is certainly open to debate. Indeed, returning to the business
about ‘property abstraction’, it seems that one way of construing this
technical device is precisely as a means of predicate disambiguation, rather
than a means of denoting properties. The idea would be that a formula like
‘▽(a ¼ a)’ is ambiguous, because it can be parsed as resulting from the
combination of the name ‘a’ with either of two different predicates, with
one parsing being read as ‘λx[▽(x ¼ x)]a’ and the other as ‘λx[▽(a ¼ x)]a’.
The whole point of avoiding ambiguity in formal logic is that in such logic
there should be a one-to-one correspondence between meaning and form,
so that valid inferences can be identified as such purely in virtue of their
form. The upshot of all this is that the ‘stripped-down’ version of the
argument for NCI, invoking the principle of the substitutivity of identity
in place of Leibniz’s law, may be accused of involving a fallacy of equivo-
cation which arises from an insufficiently perspicuous logical syntax.
We need to make it clear exactly what, according to this construal, is
objectionable about the ‘stripped-down’ versions of the arguments for NCI
and against the indeterminacy of identity. The objection to the argument
for NCI is that in order for the conclusion (5) to be derived from (1) and (3)
by means of the principle of the substitutivity of identity, the monadic
predicate chosen to replace the schematic letter ‘F ’ in that principle will
have to be ‘~▽(a ¼ ξ)’, rather than ‘~▽(ξ ¼ ξ)’. However, (3)’s status as a
purely logical truth is plausible only if it is parsed as the result of filling
both argument-places of the second of these predicates with the name ‘a’;
that is, as saying of a that it is not contingent that it is self-identical.
Indeed, if (3) is instead parsed as saying of a that it is not contingent that it
is identical with a – which it needs to be if the argument for NCI is not to
involve a fallacy of equivocation – then it appears that the argument turns
out to be question-begging in a perfectly straightforward way, because (3)
so parsed is effectively nothing less than an assertion of the non-
contingency of identity. Recall that a here is an arbitrarily chosen object.
Identity, vagueness, and modality 135
And what (3) so parsed says of this object – and so, in effect, of any
object – is that it is not contingent that it is the very object that it is: in
other words, that it could not have been any other object. But this is
precisely what the doctrine of the non-contingency of identity amounts to.
The alternative parsing of (3) is quite different in its metaphysical import,
for on that parsing (3) merely says of any arbitrarily chosen object that it
could not have failed to be self-identical. And an exactly parallel objection
can be levelled at Evans’s argument, namely that his premise (3),
depending on how it is parsed, is either too weak to sustain his conclusion
that identity is never indeterminate or else implicitly presupposes it. On
the innocuous parsing, (3) says of an arbitrarily chosen object that it is not
indeterminate whether it is self-identical, whereas on the question-begging
parsing it says of an arbitrarily chosen object that it is not indeterminate
whether it is just that object. But precisely what it means to assert that an
object may have indeterminate identity is that an object may be such that
it is indeterminate whether it is just that object, as opposed to another.
16
See further Stephen French and Decio Krause, Identity in Physics: A Historical, Philosophical, and
Formal Analysis (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 2006).
Identity, vagueness, and modality 137
indeterminacy of reference that leaves it indeterminate whether the
sentence ‘a is identical with b’ is true?
This line of objection would appear to be misplaced. Of course, it
would not be misplaced if it were correct to suppose that there really are
two distinct possible courses of events in the scenario, as outlined earlier.
For in that case we could quite properly say that the name ‘a’ has been
introduced in such a fashion that it is left undetermined whether it refers
(1) to an electron that is captured and thereafter continues to orbit the
nucleus, or (2) to an electron that is captured and is thereafter emitted, or
indeed (3) to an electron that is captured and to another electron that is
later emitted – and similarly with regard to the name ‘b’. But our claim is
that there simply are no distinct possibilities of the sort now being suggested.
To suppose that there are is precisely to suppose that the example under
discussion does not involve genuine ontic indeterminacy of identity – and
as such entirely begs the question at issue. In other words, only if it is
already assumed that the example does not really involve ontic indetermin-
acy of identity can it be classified as a case of semantic vagueness arising
from our failure to fix precisely the references of the names involved. If this
is right, we simply couldn’t fix the references of these names any more
‘precisely’, because the facts themselves don’t admit the distinctions that
would be required for this.
The lesson is that some singular terms may necessarily fail to make
determinately identifying reference. In our example, the name ‘a’ and the
definite description ‘the captured electron’ are such terms. But this is not
to say that they are ‘vague designators’ in the sense required by the
preceding line of objection, for a vague designator in that sense is a
singular term whose reference could be made determinate in principle, or
which, in other words, is capable of ‘precisification’. We might, of course,
still call them ‘vague designators’ in another sense – implying thereby
simply that statements containing them may be of indeterminate truth-
value, without any presumption that their references could be precisified
so as to eliminate such indeterminacy.17 It would be improper to com-
plain, then, that our proposed counterexample to Evans’s thesis defeats
itself by turning into a harmless case of semantic vagueness, because it
can only be seen in that light if it is already presumed that ontic
indeterminacy of identity is not involved in the case. And it would be
17
On these contrasting conceptions of a vague singular term, compare Keefe, Theories of Vagueness,
pp. 159–60.
138 Modality
similarly question-begging, of course, to raise a similar complaint in
defence of the argument for NCI, by invoking the distinction between
‘rigid’ and ‘non-rigid’ designators. Both complaints attempt to rebut a
metaphysical thesis by semantic sleight of hand. As such, they repeat the
original error of Evans’s argument and the parallel argument for NCI: the
error of trying to establish substantive metaphysical claims by means of
purely logical argument.
chapter 8
The claim that I want to argue for in this chapter is one which, I acknowledge,
many analytic metaphysicians will consider to be at best highly provocative
and at worst extremely repugnant. It is that talk of possible worlds can
contribute nothing whatever of substance to our understanding of the nature
and ground of metaphysical modality – that is, metaphysical necessity and
possibility. If I am right, then a great many philosophers and logicians have
been wasting a good deal of their time in elaborating accounts of the putative
nature of possible worlds and their supposed relationships to one another.
I readily concede that their time has not been completely wasted, to the extent
that what they have been doing is engaging in a purely technical exercise of
modelling various different systems of modal logic set-theoretically, using
‘possible worlds’ as elements in the set-theoretical structures constructed for
these purposes. For these purposes, however, it really doesn’t matter what
‘possible worlds’ are supposed to be, much less whether or not they really exist.
My criticisms will be directed primarily at those amongst these theorists
whose attitude towards talk of possible worlds is ontologically serious,
although it will extend also to those who, while not being ontologically serious
about possible worlds, still think that the ‘fiction’ of possible worlds can reveal
something about the nature and ground of metaphysical modality – if indeed
there really are any theorists of the latter kind. In this chapter, then, I shall be
trying to complete the task, begun in Chapter 6, of showing that possible-
worlds metaphysics is an irretrievably flawed attempt to get the metaphysics of
modality ‘on the cheap’.
1
See W. V. Quine, ‘Existence and Quantification’, in his Ontological Relativity and Other Essays
(New York: Columbia University Press, 1969).
2
See W. V. Quine, ‘Speaking of Objects’, in his Ontological Relativity and Other Essays.
142 Modality
us about the nature of these putative entities and explaining their supposed
identity conditions. What would count as a good theory of this kind? Well,
first of all, of course, the theory would have to represent ‘worlds’ as being
things of a kind such that the various quantified sentences whose variables
supposedly range over these things make sense to us, as putative transla-
tions of ordinary modal statements. For example, it obviously wouldn’t do
to suppose that ‘worlds’ are things like planets or galaxies, not least because
one of the worlds is supposed to be the actual world and that cannot with
any plausibility be identified with, say, the Earth or the Milky Way. We
might perhaps suppose, however, that the actual world is the entire universe,
in the cosmologist’s sense – the very big thing that supposedly originated
with the Big Bang and is now some 13 billion or so years old. David Lewis,
of course, took that sort of route in his theory of possible worlds.3
Accordingly, he took other possible worlds to be other very big things of
a similar sort: in effect, parallel universes. Other theorists – fearing, perhaps,
the charge that they were crudely intruding into the domain of empirical
science – took a more Platonic line, proposing that worlds, including the
actual world, are abstract entities of an extremely complicated sort, such as
maximal consistent sets of propositions.4 Thus the actual world, on this
view, turns out to be the set of all actually true propositions – assuming, of
course, that there is such a set. Let us call these two broad schools of
thought the concretists and the abstractionists respectively. The concretists
complain, inter alia, that the abstractionists rely upon modal notions in
their account of what worlds are because, for instance, the notion of
consistency is a modal notion – two propositions being mutually consistent
just in case they could both be true together. The abstractionists reply,
perhaps, that their aim is not to reduce modal notions to non-modal ones,
but just to ‘explicate’ them in terms of possible worlds as they conceive of
the latter. Perhaps, too, they attempt a tu quoque response, contending that
the concretists also must, at least implicitly, assume their worlds to be
possible universes – not, for instance, ones in which some contradictions
are true. A vigorous debate thus proceeds between the abstractionists and
the concretists, each denying that the other has postulated the right kind of
thing to be the value of a ‘world’ variable in the various possible-worlds
translations of modal statements. This debate, understandably, develops
into something of a stalemate, so a tie-breaker is needed. Appeal is perhaps
3
See David Lewis, On the Plurality of Worlds (Oxford: Blackwell, 1986).
4
See, for example, Alvin Plantinga, The Nature of Necessity (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1974), though
he invokes (what he calls) states of affairs rather than propositions.
Necessity, essence, and possible worlds 143
made, at this point, to familiar principles of theoretical economy and
simplicity and a cost-benefit sheet is drawn up for each theory – rather
differently, of course, by its advocates and by its opponents. The method
of inference to the best explanation is perhaps invoked, as though the rival
theorists are somewhat in the position of theoretical scientists with con-
trary hypotheses concerning the underlying nature of some empirically
observable phenomenon, such as the motion of the planets or the spectra
of chemical substances.
Other theorists then emerge upon the scene, seeing themselves as stand-
ing to the concretists and abstractionists rather as instrumentalists stand to
theoretical scientists who advocate different ‘realist’ hypotheses in explan-
ation of certain observable phenomena. These – the modal ‘fictionalists’ –
are the philosophers who, in Russell’s memorable phrase, hope to reap all
the advantages of theft over honest toil.5 Granted, they say, that concretism
can be seen to be more economical and comprehensive than abstractionism,
once the cost-benefit analysis has been done properly, it is surely even more
economical to repudiate its ontological commitments and interpret modal
claims as involving no more than a pretence that concrete worlds – parallel
universes – exist. That way, we can still appeal to concretism to explain
what we mean in making modal claims and how modal logic works,
without having to commit ourselves seriously to the claim that the con-
cretist’s putative worlds are real. But matters are not quite so straightfor-
ward, their realist opponents protest. It proves more difficult than might
have been supposed to throw away the bathwater of concrete possible
worlds without also throwing away the baby that the fictionalist wanted
to save. And so the debate goes on – and on, and on! But should we, in all
seriousness, be engaged in this seemingly endless and irresolvable three-way
debate between concretism, abstractionism, and fictionalism? Standing
back from it all, won’t a level-headed and unprejudiced philosopher want
to say at this point: a plague on all your houses? It is not as though there are
no other options on the table. There is, for instance, so-called combinator-
ialism – though what, exactly, that really amounts to is far from perfectly
clear, and its adequacy as a theory of modality may certainly be called into
question.6 And, of course, there are always plain old-fashioned anti-realism,
eliminativism, and conventionalism, for those whose taste in matters of
modality is even more deflationary than the fictionalist’s – deflationary to
5
See, especially, Gideon Rosen, ‘Modal Fictionalism’, Mind 99 (1990), pp. 327–54.
6
See, especially, D. M. Armstrong, A Combinatorial Theory of Possibility (Cambridge University Press,
1989).
144 Modality
the point of rejecting the notion of modal truth altogether, or representing
it as being a matter of semantic stipulation. However, these other options
are apt to seem worse than the ones they seek to replace, at least for any
philosopher who has sympathy for the thought that there are mind-
independent modal truths. What to do, then? Such a philosopher seems
left with two equally unappealing alternatives: either to re-enter the debate
about possible worlds and try to work out a clearly superior theory con-
cerning them, or else to resort to modal primitivism – the view that nothing
illuminating can be said about the meaning and ground of modal claims,
which must accordingly be accepted as ‘brutely’ either true or false, or as
corresponding or failing to correspond to irreducible modal facts.
8
For my own account of ontological categories, see my The Four-Category Ontology: A Metaphysical
Foundation for Natural Science (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 2006).
9
I say much more about this in Chapter 2, to which I refer the reader for a fuller and in some ways
more nuanced account. It may perhaps be allowed that, by parroting another person’s opinion,
I vicariously manage to ‘talk’ and ‘think’ about what they talk and think about, but there must
evidently be a terminus to a regress of this kind if there is to be comprehending talk or thought about
anything at all. Someone, somewhere, must know what they are thinking about if anyone, anywhere,
is to do so.
146 Modality
us to anti-realism, and indeed to an anti-realism so global that it is surely
incoherent. It will not do, for instance, to try to restrict one’s
anti-essentialism to ‘the external world’, somehow privileging us and our
language and thought. How could it be that there is a fact of the matter as
to our identities, and the identities of our words and thoughts, but not as to
the identities of the mind-independent entities that we try to represent in
language and thought? On the other hand, how could there not be any fact
of the matter as to our identities and the identities of our words and
thoughts? Everything is, in Joseph Butler’s memorable phrase, what it is
and not another thing. That has sounded to many people like a mere truism
without significant content, as though it were just an affirmation of the
reflexivity of the identity relation. But, in fact, Butler’s dictum does not
merely concern the identity relation but also identity in the sense of essence.
It implies that there is a fact of the matter as to what any particular thing is,
its ‘very being’, in Locke’s phrase. Its very being – its identity – is what
makes it the thing that it is and thereby distinct from any other thing.
Essences are apt to seem very elusive and mysterious, especially if talked
about in a highly generalized fashion, as I have been doing so far. Really,
I suggest, they are quite familiar to us. First, we need to appreciate that in
very many cases a thing’s essence involves other things, to which it stands in
relations of essential dependence. Consider the following thing, for
instance: the set of planets whose orbits lie within that of Jupiter. What
kind of thing is that? Well, of course, it is a set, and as such an abstract
entity that depends essentially for its existence and identity on the things
that are its members – namely, Mercury, Venus, Earth, and Mars. Part of
what it is to be a set is to be something that depends in these ways upon
certain other things – the things that are its members. Someone who did
not grasp that fact would not understand what a set is. Furthermore,
someone who did not know which things are this set’s members, or at least
what determined which things are its members, would not know which
particular set this set is. So, someone who knew that its members are the
planets just mentioned would know which set it is, as would someone who
knew what it is to be a planet whose orbit lies within that of Jupiter. This is
a simple example, but it serves to illustrate a general point. In many cases,
we know what a thing is – both what kind of thing it is and which
particular thing of that kind it is – only by knowing that it is related in
certain ways to other things. In such cases, the thing in question depends
essentially on these other things for its existence and/or its identity. To say
that X depends essentially on Y for its existence and identity is just to say
that it is part of the essence of X that X exists only if Y exists and part of the
Necessity, essence, and possible worlds 147
essence of X that X stands in some unique relation to Y.10 Knowing a thing’s
essence, in many cases, is accordingly simply a matter of understanding the
relations of essential dependence in which it stands to other things whose
essences we in turn know.
I said earlier that it is wrong to think of essences as themselves being
entities of any kind to which the things having them stand in some special
kind of relation. Locke himself unfortunately made this mistake, holding
as he did that the ‘real essence’ of a material substance just is its ‘particular
internal constitution’ – or, as we would now describe it, its atomic or
molecular structure.11 This is a mistake that has been perpetuated in the
modern doctrine, made popular by the work of Saul Kripke and Hilary
Putnam, that the essence of water consists in its molecular make-up, H2O,
and that the essence of a living organism consists in its DNA – the
suggestion being that we discover these ‘essences’ simply by careful scien-
tific investigation of the things in question.12 Now, as we saw earlier, it
may well be part of the essence of a thing that it stands in a certain relation
to some other thing, or kind of things. But the essence itself – the very being
of the thing, whereby it is, what it is – is not and could not be some further
entity. So, for instance, it might perhaps be acceptable to say that it is part
of the essence of water that it is composed of H2O molecules (an issue that
I shall return to shortly). But the essence of water could not simply be
H2O – molecules of that very kind. For one thing, if the essence of an entity
were just some further entity, then it in turn would have to have an essence
of its own and we would be faced with an infinite regress that, at worst,
would be vicious and, at best, would make all knowledge of essence
impossible for finite minds like ours. To know something’s essence is
not to be acquainted with some further thing of a special kind, but simply
to understand what exactly that thing is. This, indeed, is why knowledge of
essence is possible, for it is a product simply of understanding, not of some
mysterious kind of quasi-perceptual acquaintance with esoteric entities of
any sort. And, on pain of incoherence, we cannot deny that we understand
what at least some things are, and thereby know their essences.
10
See further my The Possibility of Metaphysics: Substance, Identity, and Time (Oxford: Clarendon
Press, 1998), Chapter 6.
11
Thus at one point Locke remarks: ‘we come to have the Ideas of particular sorts of Substances, by
collecting such Combinations of simple Ideas, as are by Experience . . . taken notice of to exist
together, and are therefore supposed to flow from the particular internal Constitution, or unknown
Essence of that Substance’ (Essay, ii, xxiii, 3).
12
See, especially, Saul Kripke, Naming and Necessity (Oxford: Blackwell, 1980); and Hilary Putnam,
‘The Meaning of “Meaning”’, in his Mind, Language and Reality: Philosophical Papers Volume 2
(Cambridge University Press, 1975).
148 Modality
Here it may be objected that it is inconsistent of me to deny that
essences are entities and yet go on, as I apparently do, to refer to and even
quantify over essences. Someone who voices this objection probably has in
mind, once more, Quine’s infamous criterion of ontological commitment,
encapsulated in his slogan ‘to be is to be the value of a variable’. I reply, in
the first place, that I could probably say all that I want to about my version
of essentialism while avoiding all locutions involving the appearance of
reference to and quantification over essences, by paraphrasing them in
terms of locutions involving only sentential operators of the form ‘it is part
of the essence of X that’ (where ‘the essence of X’ is not taken to make an
independent contribution to the meaning of the operator, which might be
represented symbolically by, say, ‘EX’ in a sentential formula of the form
‘EX(p)’). The latter is a kind of locution that I certainly do want to use and
find very useful. However, I think that effort spent on working out such
paraphrases in all cases would be effort wasted. If a paraphrase is logically
equivalent to what it is supposed to paraphrase – as it had better be, if it is
to be any good – then it surely carries the same ‘ontological commitments’
as whatever it is supposed to paraphrase, so that constructing paraphrases
cannot be a way of relieving ourselves of ontological commitments. We
cannot discover those commitments simply by examining the syntax and
semantics of our language, for syntax and semantics are very uncertain
guides to ontology. In other words, I see no reason to place any confidence
in Quine’s notorious criterion.
Another crucial point about essence is this: in general, essence precedes
existence. That is to say, we can in general know the essence of
something X prior to knowing whether or not X exists. Otherwise, we
could never find out that something exists. For how could we find out
that something, X, exists before knowing what X is – before knowing,
that is, what it is whose existence we have supposedly discovered?
Consequently, we know the essences of many things which, as it turns
out, do not exist. For we know what these things would be, if they
existed, and we retain this knowledge when we discover that, in fact,
they do not exist. Conceivably, there are exceptions. Perhaps it really is
true in the case of God, for instance, that essence does not precede
existence. But this could not quite generally be the case. However,
saying this is perfectly consistent with acknowledging that, sometimes,
we may only come to know the essence of something after we have
discovered the existence of certain other kinds of things. This is what
goes on in many fields of theoretical science. Scientists trying to
discover the transuranic elements knew before they found them what
it was that they were trying to find, but only because they knew that
Necessity, essence, and possible worlds 149
what they were trying to find were elements whose atomic nuclei were
composed of protons and neutrons in certain hitherto undiscovered
combinations. They could hardly have known what they were trying
to find, however, prior to the discovery of the existence of protons and
neutrons – for only after these sub-atomic particles were discovered and
investigated did the structure of atomic nuclei become sufficiently well
understood for scientists to be able to anticipate which combinations of
nucleons would give rise to reasonably stable nuclei.
Here it may be objected that Kripke and Putnam have taught us that
the essences of many familiar natural kinds – such as the kind cat and the
kind water – have been revealed to us only a posteriori and consequently
that in cases such as these, at least, it cannot be true to say that ‘essence
precedes existence’, whatever may be said in the case of the transuranic
elements. The presupposition here, of course, is that Kripke and Putnam
are correct in identifying the essence of water, for example, with its
molecular make-up, H2O. Now, I have already explained why I think
that such identifications are mistaken, to the extent that they involve the
illicit reification of essences. But it may still be urged against me that even
if, more cautiously, we say only that it is part of the essence of water that
it is composed of H2O molecules, it still follows that the essence of water
has only been revealed to us – or, at least, has only been fully revealed to
us – a posteriori. In point of fact, however, the Kripke–Putnam doctrine
is even more obscure and questionable than I have so far represented it as
being. Very often, it is characterized in terms of the supposed modal and
epistemic status of identity-statements involving natural kind terms, such
as ‘Water is H2O’, which are said to express truths that are at once
necessary and a posteriori. In such a statement, however, the term ‘H2O’
is not functioning in exactly the same way as it does in the expression
‘H2O molecule’. The latter expression, it seems clear, means ‘molecule
composed of two hydrogen atoms and one oxygen atom’. But in ‘Water
is H2O’, understood as an identity-statement concerning kinds, we must
take ‘H2O’ either to be elliptical for the definite description ‘the stuff
composed of H2O molecules’ or else simply as being a proper name, in
which case we cannot read into it any significant semantic structure. On
the latter interpretation, ‘Water is H2O’ is exactly analogous to ‘Hesperus
is Phosphorus’ and its necessary truth reveals nothing of substance to us
concerning the composition of water. If we are inclined to think other-
wise, this is because we slide illicitly from construing ‘H2O’ as a proper
name to construing it as elliptical for the definite description ‘the stuff
composed of H2O molecules’. Now, when ‘Water is H2O’ is understood
on the model of ‘Hesperus is Phosphorus’, its necessary a posteriori truth
150 Modality
may in principle be established in a like manner – namely by appeal to
the familiar logical proof of the necessity of identity,13 together with the a
posteriori discovery of the co-reference of the proper names involved – but not
so when it is construed as meaning ‘Water is the stuff composed of
H2O molecules’, for the latter involves a definite description. Thus far, then,
we have been given no reason to suppose that ‘Water is H2O’ expresses an a
posteriori necessary truth that reveals to us something concerning the essence
of water. The appearance that we have been given such a reason is the result of
mere sleight of hand. It might be thought that ‘Water is the stuff composed of
H2O molecules’ follows unproblematically from the supposed empirical truth
‘Water is H2O’ (construed as an identity-statement involving two proper
names) and the seemingly trivial, because analytic, truth ‘H2O is the stuff
composed of H2O molecules’. But the latter, when the first occurrence of
‘H2O’ in it is interpreted as a proper name, is no more trivial than ‘Water is the
stuff composed of H2O molecules’ – and this is how it must be interpreted for
the inference to go through.
There is another important consideration that we should bear in mind
when reflecting on the frequently invoked analogy between ‘Water is H2O’
and ‘Hesperus is Phosphorus’. It is all very well to point out that the discovery
that Hesperus is Phosphorus was an empirical one. But it was not purely
empirical, for the following reason. The identity was established because
astronomers discovered that Hesperus and Phosphorus coincide in their orbits:
wherever Hesperus is located at any given time, there too is Phosphorus
located. However, spatiotemporal coincidence only implies identity for things
of appropriate kinds. It is only because Hesperus and Phosphorus are taken to
be planets and thereby material objects of the same kind that their spatiotem-
poral coincidence can be taken to imply their identity. (I shall return to this
sort of issue in a little more detail shortly.) But the principle that distinct
material objects of the same kind cannot coincide spatiotemporally is not an
empirical one: it is an a priori one implied by what it is to be a material object
of any kind – in other words, it is a truth grounded in essence. It is only because
we know that it is part of the essence of a planet not to coincide spatiotempo-
rally with another planet that we can infer the identity of Hesperus with
Phosphorus from the fact that they coincide in their orbits. Thus one must
already know what a planet is – know its essence – in order to be able to
establish by a posteriori means that one planet is identical with another. By the
same token, then, one must already know what a kind of stuff is – know its
13
Of course, I challenge this proof in Chapter 7, but let us set aside those doubts now, for the sake of
argument.
Necessity, essence, and possible worlds 151
essence – in order to be able to establish by a posteriori means that one kind
of stuff is identical with another. It can hardly be the case, then, that we can
discover the essence of a kind of stuff simply by establishing a posteriori the
truth of an identity-statement concerning kinds of stuff – any more than we
can be supposed to have discovered the essence of a particular planet by
establishing a posteriori the truth of an identity-statement concerning that
planet. So, even granting that ‘Water is H2O’ is a true identity-statement that
is both necessarily true and known a posteriori, it does not at all follow that it
can be taken to reveal to us the essence of the kind of stuff that we call ‘water’.
Be all this as it may, however, we still have to address the question
whether, in fact, we ought to say that it is part of the essence of water that
it is composed of H2O molecules. So far, we have seen only that the
Kripke–Putnam semantics for natural kind terms have given us no reason
to suppose that we ought to. I am inclined to answer as follows. If we are
using the term ‘water’ to talk about a certain chemical compound whose
nature is understood by theoretical chemists, then indeed we should say
that it is part of the essence of this compound that it consists of
H2O molecules. But, at the same time, it should be acknowledged that
the existence of this compound is a relatively recent discovery, which could
not have been made before the nature of hydrogen and oxygen atoms and
their ability to form molecules were understood. Consequently, when we
use the term ‘water’ in everyday conversation and when our forebears used
it before the advent of modern chemistry, we are and they were not using it
to talk about a chemical compound whose nature is now understood by
theoretical chemists. We are and they were using it to talk about a certain
kind of liquid, distinguishable from other kinds of liquid by certain easily
detectable features, such as its transparency, colourlessness, and tastelessness.
We are right, I assume, in thinking that a liquid of this kind actually exists,
but not that it is part of its essence that it is composed of H2O molecules. At
the same time, however, we should certainly acknowledge that empirical
scientific inquiry reveals that, indeed, the chemical compound H2O is very
largely what bodies of this liquid are made up of. In fact, the natural laws
governing this and other chemical compounds make it overwhelmingly
unlikely that this kind of liquid could have a different chemical composition
in different parts of our universe. But the ‘could’ here is expressive of mere
physical or natural possibility, not metaphysical possibility.14 Only an illicit
14
For extended discussion of the need to distinguish between these two species of possibility, see my
The Four-Category Ontology, Chapter 9 and Chapter 10.
152 Modality
conflation of these two species of possibility could reinstate the claim that
water is essentially composed of H2O molecules.15
So far, I have urged that the following two principles must be endorsed
by the serious essentialist: that essences are not entities and that, in general,
essence precedes existence. But by far the most important principle to
recognize concerning essences, for the purposes of the present chapter, is
that essences are the ground of all metaphysical necessity and possibility.16 One
reason, thus, why it can be the case that X is necessarily F is that it is part of
the essence of X that X is F. For example, any material object is necessarily
spatially extended because it is part of the essence of any material object
that it is spatially extended – in other words, part of what it is to be a
material object is to be something that is spatially extended. But this is not
the only possible reason why something may be necessarily F. X may be
necessarily F on account of the essence of something else to which X is
suitably related. For example, Socrates is necessarily the subject of the
following event: the death of Socrates. This is because it is part of the
essence of that event that Socrates is its subject, even though it is not part
of Socrates’s essence that he is the subject of that event. It is not on
account of what Socrates is that he is necessarily the subject of that event
but, rather, on account of what that event is. This is not to say that Socrates
could not have died a different death, only that no one but Socrates could
have died the death that he in fact died. And what goes for necessity goes
likewise, mutatis mutandis, for possibility. I venture to affirm that all facts
about what is necessary or possible, in the metaphysical sense, are
grounded in facts concerning the essences of things – not only of existing
things, but also of non-existing things. But, I repeat, facts concerning the
essences of things are not facts concerning entities of a special kind, they are
just facts concerning what things are – their very beings or identities. And
these are facts that we can therefore grasp simply in virtue of understand-
ing what things are, which we must in at least some cases be able to do, on
pain of being incapable of thought altogether. Consequently, all know-
ledge of metaphysical necessity and possibility is ultimately a product of
the understanding, not of any sort of quasi-perceptual acquaintance, much
less of ordinary empirical observation.
15
I say much more about the case of water in my ‘Locke on Real Essence and Water as a Natural Kind:
A Qualified Defence’, Proceedings of the Aristotelian Society, Supplementary Volume 85 (2011),
pp. 1–19. There I discuss, inter alia, the notorious ‘Twin Earth’ thought experiments.
16
Compare Kit Fine, ‘Essence and Modality’, in James E. Tomberlin (ed.), Philosophical Perspectives,
8: Logic and Language (Atascadero, CA: Ridgeview, 1994).
Necessity, essence, and possible worlds 153
How, for example, do we know that two distinct things, such as a
bronze statue and the lump of bronze composing it at any given time,
can – unlike two planets – exist in the same place at the same time?
Certainly not by looking very hard at what there is in that place at that
time. Just by looking, we shall not see that two distinct things occupy that
place. We know this, rather, because we know what a bronze statue is and
what a lump of bronze is. We thereby know that these are different things
and that a thing of the first sort must, at any given time, be composed by a
thing of the second sort, since it is part of the essence of a bronze statue to
be composed of bronze. We know that they are different things because, in
knowing what they are, we know their identity conditions, and thereby
know that one of them can persist through changes through which the
other cannot persist – that, for instance, a lump of bronze can persist
through a radical change in its shape whereas a bronze statue cannot.
These facts about their identity conditions are not matters that we can
discover purely empirically, by examining bronze statues and lumps of
bronze very closely, as we might in order to discover whether, say, they
conduct electricity or dissolve in sulphuric acid. Rather, they are facts
about them that we must grasp prior to being able to embark upon any
such empirical inquiry concerning them, for we can only inquire empiric-
ally into something’s properties if we already know what it is that we are
examining.
1
See V. H. Dudman, ‘Conditional Interpretations of “If”-Sentences’, Australian Journal of Linguistics
4 (1984), pp. 143–204; ‘Indicative and Subjunctive’, Analysis 48 (1988), pp. 113–22; and ‘On
Conditionals’, Journal of Philosophy 91 (1994), pp. 113–28. See also Jonathan Bennett, ‘Farewell to
the Phlogiston Theory of Conditionals’, Mind 97 (1988), pp. 509–27.
2
See my ‘Jackson on Classifying Conditionals’, Analysis 51 (1991), pp. 126–30, for criticisms of one
important attempt to justify such a logical distinction.
3
See Ernest Adams, ‘Subjunctive and Indicative Conditionals’, Foundations of Language 6 (1970),
pp. 89–94.
The truth about counterfactuals 165
will have’.4 This is what might be asserted, prior to confirmation of the
assassination’s occurrence, by a speaker who would subsequently be pre-
pared to assert the counterfactual, ‘If Oswald hadn’t killed Kennedy, then
someone else would have’. So what the examples show is that we can have
two different indicative conditionals, one of which coincides in its truth-
conditions with a certain counterfactual and the other of which does not.
Hence, although we must indeed acknowledge that there are two distinct
classes of conditionals involved, we should not conclude that this distinc-
tion is one which corresponds to any distinction in grammatical mood. My
own view, to be explained more fully later, is that the real difference turns
on a difference between the modal notions in terms of which the truth-
conditions of the two classes of conditionals are to be stated. As I shall put
it, we have a distinction here between ‘epistemic’ and ‘alethic’ conditionals,
corresponding to a distinction between ‘epistemic’ and ‘alethic’ modality.
But underlying that distinction we can still recognize a commonality of
logical form, which permits us to deny that there is any ambiguity in the
sense of ‘if’.
7
See, for example, Dorothy Edgington, ‘Do Conditionals Have Truth-Conditions?’, Critica 18 (1986),
pp. 3–30, reprinted in Frank Jackson (ed.), Conditionals (Oxford University Press, 1991). I shall
discuss this view much more fully in Chapter 10 below, but some preliminary discussion of it here is
appropriate.
8
See David Lewis, ‘Probabilities of Conditionals and Conditional Probabilities’, Philosophical Review
85 (1976), pp. 297–315, reprinted in Jackson (ed.), Conditionals. Lewis himself does not accept the
conclusion of this argument, because he rejects the premise. Like Jackson, Lewis proposes that the
indicative conditional has the truth-conditions of the material conditional, and that while
the assertibility of the indicative conditional is measured by the conditional probability of its
consequent given its antecedent, the probability of the conditional differs from this.
9
Dorothy Edgington does not concede this: see her ‘Do Conditionals Have Truth-Conditions?’,
p. 178. But I suspect that few other theorists would be prepared to go to this extreme.
The truth about counterfactuals 167
Even so, it is perhaps incumbent on me to explain how I think that
indicative conditionals can have truth-values, given the argument alluded
to above. The answer is that I do not accept that the assertibility of an
indicative conditional is measured by the conditional probability of its
consequent given its antecedent, and accordingly do not consider that the
probability of such a conditional’s truth must be equal to that conditional
probability, with the absurd consequences that follow. Suppose I have a
fair die, and am about to throw it. Should I regard as highly assertible the
conditional ‘If I throw this die, it will not land with the six uppermost’,
simply because the conditional probability of its landing not-six given that
I throw it is high? I don’t think so – and I still don’t think so even if we
make the die a thousand-faced one. On considering whether to buy one
lottery ticket out of a thousand on sale, I don’t assert ‘If I buy this ticket,
then I won’t win the prize’, even though I fully realize that the conditional
probability of my not winning, given that I buy the ticket, is very high.
Indeed, I’m pretty sure that that conditional is false – for if I didn’t think
so, I would be foolish to enter the lottery. This isn’t to say that I am pretty
sure that the following conditional is true: ‘If I buy this ticket, then I shall
win the prize’. For the negation of the first conditional is not equivalent to
this second conditional. Rather, the negation of the first is equivalent to
the much weaker conditional ‘If I buy this ticket, then I may win the prize’.
That this is so will emerge more clearly when I come to state the general
form of the truth-conditions of conditionals, which will be seen to involve
the explicit employment of modal notions.
10
I myself am rather sceptical about some of the psychologists’ claims in this regard: see my
‘Rationality, Deduction and Mental Models’, in K. Manktelow and D. E. Over (eds.), Rationality
(London: Routledge, 1993).
11
The validity of modus ponens has been challenged by some theorists, though I find such challenges
unconvincing: see my ‘Not a Counterexample to Modus Ponens’, Analysis 47 (1987), pp. 44–7.
The truth about counterfactuals 169
asserting ‘if’-sentences.12 In order to make these ends meet, we may have to
make further adjustments to them, though we should try to keep these to a
minimum. The final result should be an account of the truth-conditions of
conditionals which generates a reasonably comprehensive system of condi-
tional logic and meets the methodological constraints mentioned earlier. (In
effect, what we are aiming at is a state of ‘reflective equilibrium’ in respect of
our intuitions and principles concerning conditionals.) Thus we cannot
dogmatically declare in advance that certain contentious patterns of inference
involving conditionals are ‘fallacious’, even if we can find apparent counter-
examples to them. That our account of the truth-conditions of conditionals
does not sanction such patterns cannot be taken as clear evidence in support of
that account without reference to wider methodological considerations. If
another theory does sanction those inference-patterns but can explain why
they should appear deviant, and at the same time offers a simpler and more
economical overall account of conditionals and their logic, then this other
theory may be more deserving of our allegiance.
12
Geoffrey Hunter, in ‘The Meaning of “If” in Conditional Propositions’, Philosophical Quarterly 43
(1993), pp. 279–97, appears to think that only the first of these strategies is available to us, on the
grounds that there is ‘nothing more to “if” than its logical powers’ (p. 290) and consequently that
‘there is no semantics for conditionals other than the logical powers as expressed in [an appropriate]
axiom-system’ (p. 292). But this claim is very much open to question, for few would dispute that the
logic of truth-functions, say, or modal logics, can be studied both from a syntactic (or proof-
theoretic) and from a semantic (or model-theoretic) point of view – so why should matters be any
different as regards the logic of conditionals?
13
Formal properties of the theory presented in this section are discussed in more detail in my
‘A Simplification of the Logic of Conditionals’, Notre Dame Journal of Formal Logic 24 (1983),
pp. 357–66.
170 Conditionality
‘If I buy this ticket, then I may win the prize’.14 (P2) thus licences the
inference from ‘If I buy this ticket, then I shall win the prize’ to ‘If I buy
this ticket, then I may win the prize’. (It might be imagined that ‘If I buy
this ticket, then I may win the prize’ has the logical form ‘p □! ◊q’, where
the diamond, ‘◊’, expresses possibility. However, ‘p □! ◊q’ clearly does
not contradict ‘p □! ~q’, whereas ‘If I buy this ticket, then I may win the
prize’ clearly does contradict ‘If I buy this ticket, then I won’t win the
prize’. What ‘p □! ◊q’ symbolizes in these circumstances is, rather,
something like ‘If I buy this ticket, then it will be possible for me to win
the prize’.15 Definition (D1), stated at the end of this section, has the
implication that ‘~(p □! ~q)’ entails, but is not entailed by, ‘p □! ◊q’, at
least in a modal logic as strong as S5.)
Note that (P1), taken in conjunction with the fact that modus ponens is
valid for material implication, implies that modus ponens is likewise valid
for the box-arrow:
(P5) p □! q, p ‘ q
Clearly, however, ‘p □! q’ must be stronger than (entail but not be
entailed by) ‘p ! q’ if not only (P1) but also (P2) is correct, because when
the box-arrows in (P2) are replaced by arrows an invalid principle results.16
(P3) seems uncontentious, but (P4) is more controversial, implying as it
does that the box-arrow is a transitive connective. I shall discuss this matter
more fully later.
Having proposed some intuitively plausible principles of inference for
conditionals (which we should be ready to revise if need be), let us now look
at our task from the other end, and try to formulate a plausible account of the
truth-conditions of conditionals, designed to reflect what we intuitively
intend to convey by making a conditional statement. One plausible idea is
14
See further my ‘A Simplification of the Logic of Conditionals’.
15
The use of a future-tense construction here – ‘will be possible’ – should not seem mysterious,
because all of the conditionals considered in this paragraph are future-tense ones, in the sense that
their antecedents and consequents all concern events or states of affairs lying in the speaker’s future.
It is a peculiarity of English grammar that it does not use a future-tense verb, ‘will buy’, in the
antecedent of such a conditional.
16
Hunter does not accept (P2), contending, ‘It is perfectly possible, even with A contingent, for
A □!B and A □! ~B both to be true’ (Hunter, ‘The Meaning of “If” in Conditional Propositions’,
p. 284, with my notation substituted for his). As an example, he invites us to consider the
contrapositives of the two if-sentences ‘If he did not catch the 2.15, he did not catch the boat’
and ‘If he did catch the 2.15, he did not catch the boat’, both of which could be true. But, first, I do
not accept the validity of contraposition (see section 6 below); and, second, it seems that the second
of Hunter’s two if-sentences should be understood as one in which ‘if’ really means ‘even if’ – and
Hunter himself excludes such if-sentences from his purview (p. 280).
The truth about counterfactuals 171
that to affirm something of the form ‘If p, then q’ is to imply that there is some
sort of ‘necessary connection’ between p and q, in the sense that we deem it to
be no accident that p and the negation of q are not jointly true. This suggests
that we treat the box-arrow as expressing so-called ‘strict’ implication, so that
‘p □! q’ is equivalent to something of the form ‘□(p ! q)’, with the box ‘□’
suitably interpreted according to context. However, against this it can be
pointed out that, on this interpretation, ‘p □! q’ comes out as vacuously true
whenever the antecedent p is impossible (invoking the appropriate notion of
possibility). This would imply, for instance, that if it was impossible for me to
buy a lottery ticket, I should have to affirm as true the statement ‘If I had
bought a ticket, then I would have won’. It is more plausible to urge that the
truth of the latter presupposes that it was indeed possible for me to buy a
ticket. However, it would apparently be unsatisfactory to conclude that
‘p □! q’ is simply equivalent to the conjunction of ‘□(p ! q)’ and ‘◊p’, for
this would have the opposite defect of making all conditionals with impossible
antecedents automatically false, thus defeating the purpose of a conditional
such as ‘If N were the greatest natural number, then there would be a natural
number greater than N ’. Of course, in the case of a conditional such as the
latter, the consequent expresses a necessary truth. So perhaps what we need to
say is that when ‘p □! q’ is true, then either p is possible or else q is necessary.
In the case of ‘If I had bought a ticket, then I would have won’ – assuming this
to be true – the first disjunct holds (it was possible for me to buy a ticket),
whereas in the case of ‘If N were the greatest natural number, then there
would be a natural number greater than N’ the second disjunct holds (it is
necessary that there is a natural number greater than N, for any natural
number N ). But if it is neither the case that p is possible nor the case that q
is necessary, then I think we should judge ‘p □! q’ to be false. The proposal,
then, is to define ‘p □! q’ as follows:
(D1) p □! q ¼df □(p ! q) & (◊p _ □q)
17
See J. L. Austin, ‘Ifs and Cans’, reprinted in his Philosophical Papers, 2nd edn (Oxford University
Press, 1970), p. 210. I concede, however, that there may be something to be said for following
Hunter and denying that if-sentences like this are really ‘conditionals’ at all: see his ‘The Meaning of
“If” in Conditional Propositions’, pp. 279–80.
The truth about counterfactuals 173
killed Kennedy. And the other two conditionals plausibly come out as
false, because although it was not inevitable for Oswald to kill Kennedy,
neither was it inevitable for his failure to be attended by the success of
another attempt (that is, it was quite possible for his failure not to be
attended by the success of another attempt).
A problem for my approach may seem to be posed by the case of
‘Dutchman’ conditionals, such as ‘If that’s a Ming vase, then I’m a
Dutchman’. It has been suggested that such a conditional is simply a so-
called ‘material’ conditional, asserted as true only because its antecedent
and consequent are both assumed to be false.18 But no interpretation of the
modal operators in definition (D1) will permit ‘p □! q’ to reduce in any
instance to ‘p ! q’ (in contrast with the way in which it was earlier shown
to reduce to ‘q’ for ‘Austinian’ conditionals). However, it may be ques-
tioned whether the ‘Dutchman’ conditional can really be taken at its face
value, as a conditional with the antecedent and consequent that it appears
to have. As I urged previously, a minimal requirement upon conditionals is
that they be subject to the rule of modus ponens – that someone affirming
something of the form ‘If p, then q’ should be prepared to infer ‘q’, given
the additional information that ‘p’ is true. But, clearly, someone who
affirms ‘If that’s a Ming vase, then I’m a Dutchman’ would not be prepared
to infer ‘I’m a Dutchman’ upon discovering – to his surprise – that it is a
Ming vase. Quite why the idiom takes the form that it does is somewhat
perplexing, but I can see no good reason for treating it purely at its face
value. (A possible explanation is that the idiom exploits the fact that no
conditional with a false consequent can be true if its antecedent is true, so
that to assert what appears to be a conditional with a blatantly false
consequent serves to emphasize the speaker’s rejection of the antecedent.
On the other hand, the idiom is clearly related to another rhetorical device
which does not exploit the conditional form: if someone asserts ‘That’s a
Ming vase’, another speaker may express his contempt for that judgement
by asserting, sarcastically, ‘Oh, yes, and I’m a Dutchman!’)
6 counterfactual ‘fallacies’
At this point it is appropriate for me to reveal – perhaps to no one’s great
surprise – that definition (D1), taken in conjunction with standard prin-
ciples of modal logic, makes all of the principles of conditional logic floated
18
See, for example, J. L. Mackie, Truth, Probability and Paradox (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1973), pp.
71–2.
174 Conditionality
earlier – (P1) to (P5) – turn out to be valid. We have, it seems, managed to
‘make ends meet’. But not all of those principles will be happily accepted
by all theorists of conditionals – least of all, perhaps, principle (P4), which
represents conditionals as being transitive. Writers on counterfactuals are
apt to say that the ‘fallacy of transitivity’ is one of three major fallacies
involving such conditionals,19 the other two being the ‘fallacy of
strengthening the antecedent’ and the ‘fallacy of contraposition’ – these
last two being inferences of the following forms respectively:
(F1) p □! q ‘ (p & r) □! q
(F2) p □! q ‘ ~q □! ~p
(Many of the same writers hold that in the case of indicative conditionals all
three forms of inference are valid – though, if I am right in contending that the
indicative/subjunctive distinction is of no logical significance, this divided
stance on the alleged fallacies cannot be a consistent one.) Let me remark,
right away, that definition (D1) does not sanction the validity of either (F1) or
(F2), but only the validity of the following significantly weakened principles:
(P6) p □! q, ~(p □! ~r) ‘ (p & r) □! q
(P7) p □! q, ◊~q ‘ ~q □! ~p
It certainly is true that (D1) sanctions the validity of the transitivity principle,
(P4), but – I would urge – this principle has in any case much greater intuitive
appeal than either of the others (in their unqualified forms).20 Nonetheless,
apparent counterexamples have been devised, which we need to examine.21
One of the best known is Robert Stalnaker’s Hoover counterexample,22
19
Notably, David Lewis: see his Counterfactuals (Oxford: Blackwell, 1973), pp. 31 ff.
20
Hunter defends the validity of contraposition while denying that of both strengthening the antecedent
and transitivity: see his ‘The Meaning of “If” in Conditional Propositions’, p. 285. But even he concedes
that the validity of contraposition is still open to debate. Someone who believes that all three principles
are valid even for subjunctive conditionals is Peter Urbach: see his ‘What Is a Law of Nature? A Humean
Answer’, British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 39 (1988), pp. 193–210.
21
Hunter offers what seems to me to be a particularly weak ‘counterexample’ to transitivity involving
indicative conditionals, asserting baldly that ‘from “If you strike that match it will light, and if it will
light then it is not wet” you may not validly infer “If you strike that match then it is not wet”’: see
his ‘The Meaning of “If” in Conditional Propositions’, p. 285. Clearly, if the latter conditional is
deemed false, the following should be deemed true: ‘If you strike that match, it may be wet’. But no
one deeming this to be true ought to assert the two conditionals of Hunter’s premise. Hunter’s
conclusion only sounds at all strange if one reads into it some implication that striking a match can
cause it not to be wet: but although conditionals are often used to intimate the existence of a causal
connection, they don’t have to be understood in this way.
22
See Robert Stalnaker, ‘A Theory of Conditionals’, in Studies in Logical Theory, American
Philosophical Quarterly Monograph 2 (Oxford: Blackwell, 1968), reprinted in Jackson (ed.),
Conditionals.
The truth about counterfactuals 175
J. Edgar Hoover being the head of the FBI at the time that Stalnaker was
writing: ‘If J. Edgar Hoover were today a communist, he would be a traitor’
(true), ‘If J. Edgar Hoover had been born in the Soviet Union, he would today
be a communist’ (true), therefore (?) ‘If J. Edgar Hoover had been born in the
Soviet Union, he would be a traitor’ (false, surely). It is worth noting that the
alleged counterexample is more persuasive when the premises are presented in
this order, rather than in the order dictated by principle (P4). This in itself
suggests that some pragmatic effect is in operation. My own view is that what
the alleged counterexample demonstrates is not the invalidity of principle
(P4), but rather the context-sensitivity of counterfactuals like these. Before
I demonstrate how this explanation of the Hoover example works, I need to
show in just what sense counterfactuals are context-sensitive.
sympathy for the metaphysics of possible worlds, as I make clear in Chapter 8, but am happy to
exploit them for present purposes purely as a heuristic device with no serious ontological
implications.
178 Conditionality
But in which respects should similarity be deemed relevant in any given
case? That, I contend, depends upon what the speaker intends to convey
by asserting a given counterfactual in the circumstances in which he does.
For instance, if his intention in asserting the counterfactual just cited is to
convey something about the causal relation between naked flames and
explosions in the presence of flammable gas, then we need to interpret
what he says as restricting the range of possible worlds taken into account
to ones which are at least similar to the actual world in having such gas
present in the room. However, such worlds will only contain the event of
Brown’s striking a match if they also differ considerably from the actual
world with regard to Brown’s psychology. Hence if, conversely, it is
appropriate to a speaker’s intentions to suppose that the range of relevant
worlds is restricted to ones which are similar to the actual world with
regard to Brown’s psychology, we should not expect a speaker to be
prepared to assert the counterfactual ‘If Brown had struck one of those
matches just now, then there would have been an explosion’. The import-
ant point to appreciate is that we cannot accommodate similarity to the
actual world both in respect of the presence of gas in the room and in
respect of Brown’s psychology, without restricting ourselves to worlds in
which Brown does not strike a match – under which restriction any counter-
factual beginning ‘If Brown had struck one of those matches just now, . . .’
turns out to have, in the relevant sense of ‘impossible’, an impossible
antecedent. And yet, without reference to the speaker’s intentions, there
is no principled way of deciding which of these aspects of similarity should
be accommodated and which disregarded.
The crucial fact to emerge from all this is that a speaker’s intentions in
asserting a counterfactual can help to determine the propositional content
of his assertion by fixing an appropriate measure of similarity across
possible worlds for the proper evaluation of the truth or falsity of what
he asserts. This should not be seen as making the truth of a counterfactual
assertion dependent upon the whims of the speaker: what depends on the
speaker’s intentions is what measure of similarity is to be deemed appro-
priate for the evaluation of what he asserts, but whether or not his assertion
is to be evaluated as true by that standard is not subject to his whim.
25
See my ‘Conditionals, Context and Transitivity’, Analysis 50 (1990), pp. 80–7, for an earlier version
of the explanation which follows. The present version is, I think, rather better.
180 Conditionality
the second premise which comes out as false, because if the only relevantly
similar worlds are ones in which Hoover remains head of an FBI serving a
capitalist-run US government, there can plainly be many such worlds in
which Hoover is born in the Soviet Union and yet is not a communist –
for instance, worlds in which he is a dissident emigrant to the USA.
Finally, if we adopt a similarity-measure which makes relevantly similar
those worlds in which Hoover both adheres to the ideology of his native
country and remains head of an FBI serving a capitalist US government,
then it turns out that the conclusion of the Hoover example should, after
all, be evaluated as true. For in all such worlds in which Hoover is born in
the Soviet Union, he is a committed communist who has come to work in
the service of a capitalist US government – work which requires him to
have adopted American citizenship – with the consequence that he is
indeed a traitor to his adopted country.
Thus we see that however we achieve consistency in applying the same
similarity-measure to evaluate all three counterfactuals, we cannot end up
with an evaluation which makes both premises true and the conclusion
false. We are only lulled into thinking that we have a counterexample to
transitivity on our hands because we are tempted to adopt a new similarity-
measure to interpret the second premise, since we instinctively look for a
measure which will make the assertion come out as true, if this can
reasonably be done. Then we forget to review our evaluation of the first
premise in the light of this change. But if the premises are presented in the
reverse order, the impression that we have a counterexample to transitivity
gives way to an impression that both premises cannot plausibly be evalu-
ated as true without equivocation (equivocation over the choice of
similarity-measure to be adopted in evaluating them).
10 conclusion
Conditionals in general present an extremely perplexing set of linguistic
phenomena which often seem to defy a simple, uniform treatment of them
for logical purposes. In this chapter I have tried to show how one can
defend a relatively simple core theory of the logic of conditionals while
respecting the many subtle differences of their interpretation which the
complexities of usage demand, especially in the case of counterfactuals.
(And here I should stress that the logic of conditionals generated by
definition (D1) is, of course, entirely reducible to standard monadic modal
logic, whereas this is not so for the systems of Stalnaker and Lewis, in
which the counterfactual conditional connective is irreducibly dyadic.)
The truth about counterfactuals 181
Counterfactuals are indeed highly context-sensitive, but provided that this
is properly recognized they can still be seen to obey a relatively straightfor-
ward underlying logic and to possess determinate truth-values in a wide
range of cases. This context-sensitivity is not something that we should
deplore, but an inevitable feature of the indispensable communicative role
which counterfactuals play in rational discourse.
chapter 10
1
David Lewis’s results are to be found in his ‘Probabilities of Conditionals and Conditional
Probabilities’, Philosophical Review 85 (1976), pp. 297–315, reprinted in F. Jackson (ed.),
Conditionals (Oxford University Press, 1991). For more on such triviality proofs, see E. Eells and
B. Skyrms (eds.), Probability and Conditionals (Cambridge University Press, 1994). For Edgington’s
views, see especially her ‘On Conditionals’, Mind 104 (1995), pp. 235–329, which provides the main
target for most of what I have to say here.
184 Conditionality
1 edgington on conditionals
According to Edgington, probability may be interpreted as degree of belief –
in the sense that degrees of (rational) belief are held to bear to one another
relationships captured by the axioms of the standard probability calculus.2
Clearly, it cannot plausibly be claimed that it is psychologically impossible
for a person actually to possess degrees of belief, or ‘partial’ beliefs, which
do not stand in such relationships – though it can be argued that such a
person’s belief distribution would not be coherent, in the sense that a
‘Dutch book’ could be made against him or her. Hence we are dealing
with the beliefs of a putatively ‘rational’ subject, at least in this fairly
minimal sense of ‘rational’.
Now, standardly, in the mathematical theory of probability (which
Edgington has no wish to query on this score), the conditional
probability of B given A (where A and B are propositions) is defined as
the ratio of the probability of the conjunction of A and B to the probability
of A (provided that p(A) > 0), as follows:3
(1) p(B|A) ¼ p(A & B)/p(A)
Accordingly, Edgington proposes to endorse the corresponding equiva-
lence, with ‘degree of belief’ standing in for ‘probability’ (and with the
corresponding proviso that b(A) > 0):
(2) b(B|A) ¼ b(A & B)/b(A)
This is interpreted as meaning: one’s degree of belief in B given A equals
the ratio of one’s degree of belief in the conjunction of A and B to one’s
degree of belief in A. But what is a ‘degree of belief in B given A’?
According to Edgington, it is just a degree of belief in the conditional ‘If
A, then B’.4 (She holds this because of her acceptance of what is sometimes
called ‘Adams’s thesis’ – a thesis which I shall examine and criticize later in
this chapter.) Then, in the light of Lewis’s triviality result, Edgington
2
Compare F. P. Ramsey, ‘Truth and Probability’, in his The Foundations of Mathematics and Other
Logical Essays (London: Kegan Paul, 1931).
3
Note, however, that Bruno de Finetti – with Ramsey held to be one of the founders of the
‘subjective’ theory of probability – denied that (1) should be seen as a definition of conditional
probability, holding it to be, rather, ‘a theorem derived from the requirement of coherence’: see
J. von Plato, Creating Modern Probability (Cambridge University Press, 1994), p. 270. The proviso
that p(A) 6¼ 0 is required, of course, because division by zero is mathematically impossible.
4
For present purposes, we may take this to be an indicative conditional, although Edgington believes
that her approach may be extended to include subjunctive or counterfactual conditionals. For more
on the distinction between indicative and subjunctive conditionals, see Chapter 9.
Conditionals and conditional probability 185
contends that ‘If A, then B’ does not express a proposition, and so does not
have truth-conditions nor, consequently, a truth-value. According to her,
to assert ‘If A, then B’ is not to assert the truth of any proposition: rather, it
is conditionally to assert the consequent, B, under the supposition that, or
‘given’, the antecedent, A.
5
See Edgington, ‘On Conditionals’, p. 263.
186 Conditionality
The confusion here – if that is what it is – may be traced back to the
original ‘definition’ of ‘conditional probability’:
(1) p(B|A) ¼ p(A & B)/p(A)
In particular, we may be misled by the appearance of the symbol ‘p’ on
both sides of the equation. What we need to appreciate is that the
significance of ‘p’ as it appears on the left-hand side of the equation has
nothing whatever to do with its significance as it appears on the right-hand
side. There is orthographic sleight of hand going on here. For, on the left-
hand side, ‘p’ – or, more exactly, ‘p( )’ – does not really appear at all, as a
well-formed symbol, in the way that it does (twice) on the right-hand side.
Rather, what significantly appears on the left-hand side is ‘p( | )’ – which is
a quite different symbol from ‘p( )’. There is no good reason at all for
including ‘p’ in both of these symbols. ‘p( )’ no more occurs significantly in
‘p( | )’ than ‘rat’ occurs significantly in ‘Socrates’. In short: conditional
probability, so-called, is not a kind of probability – not, at least, if (1) is
supposed to be taken as defining what it is. The very term ‘conditional
probability’, it now seems, is an oxymoron.
But – it may be asked – why can’t the same move be made as was
made earlier regarding the notions of conditional assertion and condi-
tional belief? That is, why not just say that ‘conditional probability’ is the
probability of one proposition, B, given another proposition, A? Accord-
ingly, we could write it as ‘p(B)/A’, rather than as ‘p(B|A)’. I imagine that
Edgington would, in fact, have no objection to this notation, since she
has no objection to something very similar to it, namely ‘pA(B)’.6 But let
us be clear about what this manoeuvre can achieve, which I think is very
little. We should not be under any illusion that, by making this move, we
have ensured that in talking of ‘conditional probability’ we really are
talking about probability. For, just as we should not be under any illusion
that ‘p’ in ‘p( | )’ means the same as ‘p’ in ‘p( )’, so too we should not be
under any illusion that ‘p’ in ‘p( )/’ means the same as ‘p’ in ‘p( )’ either.
Indeed, ‘p’ has no independent meaning in any of these symbols. So it is
just a cheat to assume that we are talking about the same sort of thing –
‘probability’ – in both cases. The fact is that the only relation that so-
called ‘conditional probability’, as defined by (1), has to any kind of
probability – where the latter is understood as a notion explicated by the
axioms of the standard probability calculus (Kolmogorov’s axioms) – is
that the former is defined as a ratio of probabilities. And again I make the
6
See Edgington, ‘On Conditionals’, p. 263.
Conditionals and conditional probability 187
point that a ratio of two degrees of some quantity is not, in general, itself
a degree of that – or indeed any – quantity. This is simply an application
of ‘dimensional analysis’ – the technique which tells us, for instance, that
a quantity which is the product of velocity and time has the dimension of
length.
Perhaps it may be urged against me here that degrees of probability, and
likewise of belief, are ‘dimensionless’, unlike degrees of temperature, so
that this point does not apply to the former. Alternatively, it might be
urged that even with degrees of temperature, such a ratio does determine a
‘temperature’, but one measured according to a different scale. However,
all that these objections really appeal to is the fact that a ratio between
numerical values is always itself a numerical value, provided that the
denominator is not zero (pure numbers are, of course, ‘dimensionless’).
They do not address my central complaint that the ‘p’ in ‘p( | )’ and its
variants bears a merely orthographic relationship to the ‘p’ in ‘p( )’: in
short, that the meaning of ‘conditional probability’ has been left entirely
undetermined by (1), even if ‘its’ numerical value has been fixed – whatever
‘it’ is. At the very least, then, even if I have not proved that the ratio of
probabilities specified in (1) is not a probability, I hope it is clear that those
who think otherwise have some explaining to do: they need to explain in
what sense such a ratio is a probability.
These last remarks, it will be seen, provide the basis of an objection to
the alternative way, canvassed above, of understanding the notion of
(degree of) conditional belief, according to which ‘b(B|A)’ is understood
as denoting the degree of belief in B, conditional upon, or given, A (rather
than as the degree of belief in ‘B given A’). My point would again be that
we deceive ourselves if we think that we have articulated here a genuine
notion of belief, which bears more than a nominal relationship to the
standard notion, as expressed by the verb ‘believe’. The ‘b’ in ‘b(B|A)’ bears
a merely orthographic similarity to the ‘b’ in ‘b(A)’, where the latter is
taken to denote degree of belief in a proposition A. In short, theorists like
Edgington have done nothing whatever to show that they are entitled to
use the expressions ‘degree of belief in A’ and ‘degree of belief in B,
conditional upon A’ (or ‘degree of conditional belief in B, given A’) with
any expectation that the words ‘degree of belief’, as they figure in those
expressions, bear any significant semantic relationship to one another
whatsoever.
There is, however, an obvious response which the devotees of condi-
tional probability can make here. This is to say that these conditional
notions are the semantically prior ones, and that the notions of ‘absolute’
188 Conditionality
probability and ‘absolute’ belief are to be understood as special cases of the
general notions. Thus, on this view, the ‘absolute’ probability of A, p(A), is
just the conditional probability of A given the tautology, T:7
(3) p(A) ¼ p(A|T)
Likewise, then, devotees of the notion of conditional belief could perhaps
say that a degree of belief in a proposition A, b(A), is ‘really’ just the degree
of conditional belief in A given T, b(A|T). This approach may work,
perhaps, for probability (although one might argue that even here it is
merely cosmetic, because ‘p( |T)’ is effectively just a stylistic variation on
‘p( )’, and still represents a function of just one argument). But it is not so
easy to say this about belief, as I shall now explain.
Remember, we canvassed two different construals of the notion of
‘conditional belief in B given A’, which carry across to the special case
where A ¼ T. According to one, to have a degree of belief in A given T is to
believe, to some degree, ‘A given T ’, or ‘If T, then A’ – where this is not to
have some degree of belief in any proposition. So it turns out, on this
construal, that we were wrong to suppose that belief is a propositional
attitude at all. No object of belief has truth-conditions! On the other
construal, to have a degree of belief in A given T is to believe, to some
degree, A, given, or conditional upon, T. On this construal, the object of
belief is always something propositional, with truth-conditions and (poten-
tially, at least) a truth-value. Even so, the suggestion now is that we can
only understand belief in a proposition as an irreducibly conditional
notion: to have a high degree of belief that, say, it will rain tomorrow, is
‘really’ to have a high degree of conditional belief that it will rain, given
some arbitrary tautology – say, given that it will either rain or not rain
tomorrow. (Some might want to go even further than this, and urge that
all belief is ‘really’ conditional belief given, or relative to, some body of
‘background knowledge’, K: but such a doctrine has all the disadvantages
of the view now being examined, and more besides.) This suggestion is
frankly incredible. Moreover, the implication is that whenever we make
what appears to be an unconditional assertion – for instance, ‘It will rain
tomorrow’ – we are ‘really’ making a conditional assertion, in this instance
one such as ‘If it will either rain or not rain tomorrow, then it will rain
tomorrow’. And, on Edgington’s theory, this conditional assertion cannot
7
Compare Richard Swinburne, An Introduction to Confirmation Theory (London: Methuen, 1973),
pp. 34 ff.
Conditionals and conditional probability 189
be something with truth-conditions or a truth-value. Remarkably, it turns
out that nothing that we assert is ever really true.8
12
See Colin Howson and Peter Urbach, Scientific Reasoning: The Bayesian Approach (La Salle, IL:
Open Court, 1989), pp. 284 ff.
Conditionals and conditional probability 191
But now shouldn’t we say that the definition just proposed is, in fact,
much more intuitive than the standard one which is stated in terms of a
ratio of ‘absolute’ probabilities? (A defender of the latter definition cannot,
as we have just seen, complain that the new definition has different and
therefore unacceptable implications.) But if that is so, then, precisely
because the new definition uses a conditional in its statement, one cannot
appeal to the notion of conditional probability thus defined in order to
explicate conditionals: the notion of conditionality is the conceptually
prior notion. My charge, thus, is that an intuitively plausible explication
of the concept of conditional probability presupposes the very concept of
conditionality which Edgington aspires to explicate in terms of conditional
probability. (Here it may be asked why an explication of ‘if’ which uses ‘if’
should be any more problematic than the Tarskian truth-condition for ‘A
and B’ which uses ‘and’, namely: ‘A and B’ is true iff A is true and B is true.
My answer is that the latter is unproblematic precisely because, as one of
the base clauses of an inductive truth-definition, it does not pretend to
provide an explication of the concept of conjunction.)
Edgington may object, however, that when probability is interpreted as
degree of belief, it is not always the case that the conditional probability of
B given A, as determined by the standard ratio, is equal to the probability
that B would have if the probability of A were 1. For example,13 she may say
that I have a high degree of conditional belief that, given that the CIA are
bugging my office, I won’t know about it – and yet, if I were to know for
sure (have a degree of belief ¼ 1) that the CIA were bugging my office,
I would have a zero degree of belief that I didn’t know about it. However,
if this really is so, then one might say, for this very reason, that degrees of
belief cannot be interpreted in terms of the probability calculus – that their
formal properties do not conform to those of any kind of probability: and
that would compromise Edgington’s entire approach to conditionals and
conditional beliefs. (One might say this, in particular, if one held that the
‘Bayesian’ principle of ‘conditionalization’ is central to the project of
interpreting degrees of belief in terms of the probability calculus: for,
exactly to the extent that the CIA case looks like a counterexample to
my proposed definition of conditional probability, (6), it looks like a
counterexample to the principle of conditionalization as well.) On the
other hand, however, the supposed counterexample can itself be chal-
lenged, on the grounds that it depends, illicitly, upon an epistemically
irrelevant indexical (first-person) characterization of the belief in question.
13
Compare Edgington, ‘On Conditionals’, p. 269.
192 Conditionality
Clearly, I have a high degree of conditional belief that, given that the CIA
are bugging my office, I won’t know about it, simply because I have a high
degree of conditional belief that, given that the CIA are bugging any
ordinary citizen’s office, that citizen won’t know about it – for I don’t
consider myself to be any exception in this regard. However, if I were to
know for sure that the CIA were bugging some ordinary citizen’s office,
I would indeed have a very high degree of belief that that citizen wouldn’t
know about it – even if that citizen happened to be myself. So it seems that
the case in question, when properly unpacked, does not really constitute a
counterexample to the claim at issue.14
Let me sum up my conclusions so far. I have proposed an intuitively
appealing definition of ‘conditional probability’, according to which the
conditional probability of B given A is the probability that B would have if
A had a probability of 1. (At the end of the present chapter, however, I shall
propose a small modification to this definition, which renders superfluous
my response to the problem case discussed in the preceding paragraph.)
Now, clearly, it would be circular to use the notion of conditional prob-
ability, thus defined, in order to explicate the notion of a conditional
statement or a conditional belief, because the definition itself employs a
conditional. Furthermore, while it is true that the value of the conditional
probability of B given A, as determined by this definition, will equal the
value of that probability as determined by the standard definition of
conditional probability (the ratio-based definition) – assuming, at least,
that we update probabilities according to the principle of
‘conditionalization’ – nonetheless, there are compelling reasons for think-
ing that the standard ‘definition’ cannot properly qualify as a definition
(that is, explication of the meaning) of the term ‘conditional probability’,
as opposed merely to providing a correct measure of the value of a condi-
tional probability. Nor is it plausible to suppose that the notion of
conditional probability is just primitive, standing in need of no definition
or explication.15 I conclude that we do need to define conditional probabil-
ity and have no real option but to define it in a way which already takes the
notion of a conditional statement for granted – and hence that Edgington’s
attempt to explicate conditional statements and beliefs in terms of condi-
tional probability puts the cart before the horse.
14
For another way of handling such cases, see D. H. Mellor, ‘How to Believe a Conditional’, Journal
of Philosophy, 90 (1993), pp. 233–48, 243.
15
Pace Edgington, ‘On Conditionals’, p. 270.
Conditionals and conditional probability 193
4 adams’s thesis
However, whether or not one can explicate conditionals in terms of
conditional probability, it is a further question whether or not Adams’s
thesis is correct, this being the thesis that the probability of ‘If A, then B’
equals the conditional probability of B given A – where probability is
construed as degree of (rational) belief.16 Stated using Edgington’s sym-
bolism, we have:17
Adams: b(If A, then B) ¼ b(B|A) ¼ b(A & B)/b(A), provided that b(A) > 0
Of course, given Lewis’s proof, Adams’s thesis can’t easily be true unless
conditionals lack truth-conditions; that is, do not express propositions –
although one can get around this in various arcane ways, such as by
interpreting conditional sentences as being strongly context-dependent.18
But that is a consequence which Edgington is happy to embrace. However,
it seems plain enough from examples that Adams’s thesis is at least highly
questionable. The lottery example is perhaps the clearest way of making
the point.19 The conditional probability that I shall not win the lottery,
given that I buy just one ticket out of a hundred thousand on sale, is
plainly very high – that is (in my terms), if the probability of my buying
just one ticket were 1, the probability of my not winning would be very
high. Does it follow that I should assign a high probability (degree of
belief) to ‘If I buy just one ticket, I shall not win the lottery’? Remember,
we can make the odds as high as we like, without altering the nature of the
example. If Edgington is right, there must be odds which would justify me
in believing this conditional with as high a degree of belief as I assign to
pretty well any of my very firmest beliefs, such as that the sun will rise
tomorrow. But even at these odds, I suggest, someone purchasing just one
lottery ticket would in fact deny that he believed that he would lose if he
bought just one ticket. A very strong belief that one will lose if one
buys a ticket ought to be sufficient to deter one from buying a ticket.
After all, a very strong belief that one will win if one buys a ticket
16
See Ernest Adams, The Logic of Conditionals (Dordrecht: Reidel, 1975), p. 3.
17
See Edgington, ‘On Conditionals’, p. 263, where she calls this simply ‘The Thesis’.
18
See Edgington, ‘On Conditionals’, pp. 305 ff. In Chapter 9, I urge that conditionals are context-
dependent, but not in a way that would automatically give comfort to those who favoured an appeal
to their context-dependency in order to evade the implications of Adams’s thesis.
19
In my ‘The Truth about Counterfactuals’, Philosophical Quarterly 45 (1995), pp. 41–59 (see also
Chapter 9 of the present book), I used this example to make a point about assertibility, which
enabled Edgington to parry it in her ‘On Conditionals’, p. 287 n. But really the example works
equally well with regard to degree of belief.
194 Conditionality
should suffice to induce one to buy a ticket – and so, by the same token,
an equally strong belief that one will lose if one buys a ticket should
suffice to induce one not to buy one. On Edgington’s theory, a
purchaser of just one ticket ought to have the latter belief, and so
ought not to buy a ticket – and yet people do buy lottery tickets, and so
either we must charge them with irrationality or else we must deny that
they ought to have the belief which Edgington’s theory says that they
ought to have.
Against me, it may be said that what is to be gained by winning is
much greater than what is to be lost by losing, so that the two cases are
not parallel. However, we could adjust the example and compare the
original lottery case with a gamble in which there is a very high condi-
tional probability of winning a small amount – say, equal to the price of
the stake – given that one takes the gamble. In this case, according to
Edgington, one has a very high degree of belief that one will win a small
amount if one plays, and this, it would seem, should suffice to induce
one to play. By the same token, then, if one has an equally strong belief
that one will lose a similarly small amount if one plays, this should
suffice to induce one not to play (and this, by Edgington’s account, is
what obtains in the original lottery case). Yet lottery ticket buyers don’t
refrain from playing, and so must either be convicted of irrationality
or else cannot be credited with a very high degree of belief that they
will lose if they play. (What they do believe, of course, and with
complete conviction, is that if they were to play, then the probability
of their losing would be very high: but that, in my view, is quite another
matter.)
Note here that it will not help Edgington to point out that, in the
original lottery case, one knows that there is a very small but finite chance
of winning a great deal of money if one buys a ticket. Of course, I can
acknowledge that fact and use it to explain why it can be rational to buy a
ticket. But ‘If I buy a ticket, there will be a small but non-zero chance of
my winning a large sum’ entails ‘If I buy a ticket, I may win’ – and this is
incompatible with ‘If I buy a ticket, I shall not win’. Edgington, however,
says that I ought to believe the latter very strongly, so she cannot allow that
I should also believe the former very strongly. In confirmation of my claim
that these two conditionals are incompatible, consider the following
imaginary conversation between X and Y:
X: If you buy a ticket, you will not win.
Y: Yes I may – somebody has to win and it could be me.
Conditionals and conditional probability 195
Clearly, Y here is disagreeing with X. Of course, ‘Not A’ is not, in general,
incompatible with ‘Possibly A’: but this just goes to show that ‘If you buy a
ticket, you will not win’ and ‘If you buy a ticket, you may win’ – which are
incompatible, as the disagreement between X and Y indicates – cannot be
construed as a pair of conditionals which differ only in that one has a
consequent of the form ‘Not A’ and the other a consequent of the form
‘Possibly A’.20
Besides the lottery case, there are other apparent counterexamples to
Adams’s thesis, such as the following one concerning coin-spinning.21
Suppose I assert, with complete and justifiable conviction, ‘If you spin
this coin, it will land heads’. That would be an appropriate thing to assert if
I knew for sure that the coin was a two-headed one, or otherwise heavily
biased to land heads. Suppose then that I knew, to the contrary, that the
coin was perfectly fair: in that case, I surely ought to deny what I previously
asserted, and with just as much conviction. However, according to Edging-
ton’s account, I ought instead to be indifferent in the latter case between
the conditional ‘If you spin this coin, it will land heads’ and ‘If you spin
this coin, it will land tails’ – I should (by Adams’s thesis) have the same
degree of belief (neither high nor low) in each of them, because for a fair
coin the conditional probability of its landing heads given that it is spun
equals the conditional probability of its landing tails given that it is spun (a
probability of 50%, or 0.5, in each case). But if a high degree of belief in ‘If
this coin is spun, it will land heads’ expresses a strong conviction that the
coin is heavily biased to land heads, then a middling degree of belief in that
same conditional should apparently express a moderate conviction that the
coin is heavily biased to land heads – whereas in fact what one has in the
hypothesized circumstances is a strong conviction that the coin is unbiased.
We can restate this argument more formally as follows, letting B be the
proposition ‘This coin is heavily biased to land heads’, S the proposition
‘This coin is spun’ and H the proposition ‘This coin will land heads’. Now,
it is plausible to claim that one’s degree of belief in ‘If S, then H’ should be
proportionate to one’s degree of belief in B, being high when the latter is
high and low when the latter is low. (Indeed, some philosophers would
make the even stronger claim that the disposition statement B is analytic-
ally equivalent to the conditional ‘If S, then H’, in which case one’s degree
of belief in each should certainly be the same.) However, according to
20
See my ‘The Truth about Counterfactuals’, p. 47 (and also Chapter 9 of the present book).
21
Compare A. Hájek and N. Hall, ‘The Hypothesis of the Conditional Construal of Conditional
Probability’, in Eells and Skyrms (eds.), Probability and Conditionals.
196 Conditionality
Adams’s thesis, one’s degree of belief in ‘If S, then H’ ought to be (approxi-
mately) equal to one’s degree of belief in ‘If S, then not-H’, when one has a
high degree of belief that the coin is unbiased and in consequence has a low
degree of belief in B. Moreover, these equal degrees of belief must sum to
unity, according to Adams’s thesis, and so cannot both be low. Therefore,
according to Adams’s thesis, when one has in such circumstances a low degree
of belief in B, one should not have a low degree of belief in ‘If S, then H’,
contrary to the plausible claim made previously. Hence Adams’s thesis must
be mistaken if that claim is correct. In confirmation of its correctness and in
further disconfirmation of Adams’s thesis, observe that it is in fact perfectly
possible for a rational subject to have low degrees of belief in both ‘If S, then H’
and ‘If S, then not-H’ – to wit, when the subject strongly believes the coin to
be unbiased. In such circumstances, the subject will rightly reject both of the
conditionals, ‘If this coin is spun, it will land heads’ and ‘If this coin is spun, it
will not land heads’, in favour of the conditional ‘If this coin is spun, it may or
may not land heads’.
5 edgington’s response
Earlier in this chapter,22 I raised some questions concerning the standard
ratio-based definition of conditional probability. Recall that, according to
that definition, the conditional probability of B given A, written ‘p(B|A)’,
or alternatively ‘pA(B)’, is defined as follows:23
(7) p(B|A) ¼df p(A & B)/p(A), provided that p(A) > 0
One question that I raised was the following: what entitles us to suppose
that the expression ‘p( | )’, as defined by (7), really signifies any kind of
probability? Of course, it is easily shown that the value of p(B|A) must lie
between 0 and 1 and thus within the numerical value range of a probabil-
ity. But so, too, may the values of many other functions lie within this
range. An absolute probability function, signified by an expression such as
‘p( )’, is a function of just one argument – that argument being a propos-
ition – with a numerical value between 0 and 1. In (7), however, we are
purportedly introduced to a different kind of probability function, which
is a function of two arguments – both of them propositions – with a
22
And in the original paper on which those parts of this chapter are based, my ‘Conditional
Probability and Conditional Beliefs’, Mind 105 (1996), pp. 603–15.
23
(7) differs from (1) above only in that I have made it explicit that it is supposed to be a definition and
have included in it the proviso that p(A) > 0.
Conditionals and conditional probability 197
numerical value between 0 and 1. What is such a probability supposed to
be a probability of ? Not the probability of a proposition, clearly, since the
function takes not a single proposition but a pair of propositions as its
arguments. The answer will be offered that such a probability is simply the
conditional probability of one proposition, B, given another proposition, A.
Definition (7), however, throws no light at all on what is meant by saying
this, beyond telling us that it is a way of talking about the ratio between
the (absolute) probabilities of two propositions, (A & B) and A. Why call
this ratio a ‘conditional’ probability?
Dorothy Edgington thinks that she has an answer to this question. This
is what she says:
The question Lowe raises . . . is a fair one, and it has a straight answer. Let us use
the notation ‘pA(B)’ for ‘the probability of B given A’. Take any law of probability,
any consequence of the axioms of probability theory, e.g.: p(~B) ¼ 1–p(B); p(B ˅
C) ¼ p(B) þ p(C) – p(B & C). Add the standard definition of conditional
probability, and we can prove a parallel law: pA(~B) ¼ 1–pA(B); pA(B ˅ C) ¼
pA(B) þ pA(C) – pA(B & C), etc. The probability of B given A, on the standard
definition, deserves a name which contains the word ‘probability’ because, if p( ) is
a probability function in which p(A) 6¼ 0, then pA( ) [or: p( |A)] is a probability
function, according to the axioms.24
Now, as we have already observed, p( | ), as defined by (7), is a function of
two arguments, whereas the ‘probability functions’ with which the stand-
ard axioms of probability are concerned are functions of just one argument.
Consequently, the mere fact that, when definition (7) is added to those
axioms, one can prove various laws governing p( | ) which ‘parallel’
(Edgington’s expression) the laws governing standard probability
functions can by no means imply that p( | ) itself is such a function, for
the very simple reason that p( | ) is not a function of just one argument.
But, given that p( | ) cannot qualify as a probability function in the
standard sense, why should a mere parallelism between the laws of p( | )
and the laws of probability suffice to warrant our calling p( | ) a ‘probabil-
ity’ function in any sense? I shall return to this question in the next section,
where I shall try to show that, in fact, such a parallelism provides a very
weak reason indeed to think of ‘p( | )’ as signifying any kind of probability.
Before proceeding, however, it is important to appreciate that Edging-
ton’s claim in the passage just quoted is not that p( | ) itself is a probability
function, but rather that ‘if p( ) is a probability function in which
24
Dorothy Edgington, ‘Lowe on Conditional Probability’, Mind 105 (1996), pp. 617–30: see p. 620.
I have adapted her logical symbolism very slightly to bring it into conformity with my own.
198 Conditionality
p(A) 6¼ 0, then pA( ) [or: p( |A)] is a probability function, according to the
axioms [of probability theory]’. (Note that ‘[or: p( |A)]’ here is Edgington’s
own wording, not my interpolation.) What exactly are we to make of this?
Presumably, Edgington considers that ‘pA( )’, or ‘p( |A)’, like ‘p( )’,
expresses a probability function of just one argument – as it were, the
‘given A probability’ of a proposition. To see the situation in the clearest
possible light, let us recast (7) using Edgington’s own preferred subscript
notation, ‘pA( )’, as follows:
(7*) pA(B) ¼df p(A & B)/p(A), provided that p(A) > 0
We could then summarize matters as follows. The standard definition,
(7*), treats the ‘A’ in ‘pA(B)’ as occupying one of two argument-places in a
two-place functional expression. But it seems that, in the quoted passage,
Edgington implicitly treats the ‘A’ in ‘pA(B)’ as being, rather, an index
which distinguishes the putative one-argument probability function, pA( ),
from another such probability function, p( ) – the latter being a familiar
absolute probability function. Consequently, it may be objected that the
standard definition, (7*), does not in fact serve to define what Edgington
takes herself to mean by the expression ‘pA(B)’.
Here, however, it may be pointed out that, quite generally, if f(x, y) is a
function of two arguments, x and y, then we may define in terms of it a
related function of just one argument, fa(y), by letting x have a constant
value, x ¼ a. And this, it may be said, is all that Edgington is implicitly
doing, quite innocuously. Thus it may be conceded that, strictly speaking,
(7*) doesn’t itself serve to define ‘pA( )’, as Edgington uses this expression,
but it may also be urged that it is a simple matter to construct such a
definition from (7*) in the foregoing manner. However, in that case, it
would seem that pA( )’s entitlement to be called a ‘probability’ function
rests squarely on p( | )’s own entitlement to be so called, since we are now
understanding the former to be defined in terms of the latter. So now, by a
somewhat circuitous route, we are led back to our earlier question whether
a mere parallelism between the laws of p( | ) and the laws of probability
suffices to warrant our calling p( | ) a ‘probability’ function in any sense.
25
See again Adams, The Logic of Conditionals, p. 3.
26
See Edgington, ‘On Conditionals’, p. 263. See further section 4 of the present chapter, on Adams’s
thesis.
27
See again Lewis, ‘Probabilities of Conditionals and Conditional Probabilities’.
200 Conditionality
Now, paralleling Lewis’s triviality proof, it is easy to show that there is no
proposition that ‘B if A’ can be taken to express, if (10) is correct. This is
because, for any proposition X, t(X) must either take the value 1 or else the
value 0: but ‘t(B if A)’, according to (8) and (10), denotes a value only
provided that t(A) is not 0, and is otherwise undefined. Hence t(B if A)
cannot be the truth-value of any proposition. In fact, ironically enough,
I imagine that Edgington herself ought to feel quite sympathetically
towards (10), since she herself allows that the conditional ‘B if A’ has the
truth-value of B provided that A is true, but otherwise lacks a truth-value.28
And, indeed, there is a quite long-standing tradition which sees the indica-
tive ‘if’ as having what is sometimes called a ‘defective’ truth-table,
whereby it takes the truth-value of the consequent when the antecedent
is true, but otherwise lacks a truth-value.
Now, all of this may be independently quite interesting, but we need to
bring matters back to the point. The point was that Edgington suggests
that conditional probability, as defined by (7) or (7*), deserves the name
‘probability’ because the laws of conditional probability parallel those of
ordinary, ‘absolute’ probability. Now, however, it is easy enough to see
that, by the same token, the laws of ‘conditional truth-value’, where the
latter is taken as being defined by (8), parallel the laws of ordinary,
‘absolute’ truth-value. For example, one ‘absolute’ law is that if t(B) ¼ 1
then t(~B) ¼ 0, and another is that t(B ˅ C) ¼ 1 iff either t(B) ¼ 1 or
t(C) ¼ 1, and paralleling these we have the ‘conditional’ laws that if tA(B) ¼ 1,
then tA(~B) ¼ 0, and that tA(B ˅ C) ¼ 1 iff either tA(B) ¼ 1 or tA(C) ¼ 1.
What, then, are we entitled to say about the notion of ‘conditional truth-
value’, as purportedly defined by (8)? If Edgington’s line of argument (as
quoted earlier) is correct, the conclusion should be that we are entitled to
think of ‘conditional truth-value’ as a kind of truth-value, the truth-value of
one proposition ‘given’ another proposition. But this, I submit, is mani-
festly absurd. There is surely not, in addition to ordinary, ‘absolute’
truth-value – truth or falsehood simpliciter – a peculiar kind of ‘relative’
truth-value. ‘tA(B)’, as defined by (8), cannot be taken to denote a new
kind of truth-value. If the expression ‘tA(B)’ is to be espoused at all, it is
better explained, rather, as denoting the (ordinary) truth-value that B
has if A is true. This, however, is to explain the notion of ‘conditional
truth-value’ in conditional terms. And my contention is that, in like
manner, we can only make clear sense of the notion of ‘conditional
probability’ if we attempt to explain it, too, in conditional terms – not,
28
See Edgington, ‘On Conditionals’, pp. 290–1.
Conditionals and conditional probability 201
that is, as a new kind of probability, but rather as the (ordinary) probability
that a proposition has if certain conditions obtain. In short: talk
about conditional probability is properly construed not as talk about a
conditional kind of probability, but rather as talk of a conditional kind
about probability.
29 30
See (6) in section 3 above. See Edgington, ‘Lowe on Conditional Probability’, p. 625.
31
Edgington, ‘Lowe on Conditional Probability’, p. 620.
202 Conditionality
(12) assigns to pA(B) – that is, why the standard definition is extensionally
correct. Why? Because if the antecedent of (12) is realized – so that A is
assigned a probability of 1 – B and (A & B) will then both have the same
probability; and the probability that (A & B) then has will equal the ratio
between that probability and the probability that A then has, since this last
probability will just be 1; but, ex hypothesi, the ratio in question will be left
unaltered in value from its original value; consequently, if the antecedent
of (12) is realized, B will then have a probability equal to the value of the
ratio of the probabilities originally assigned to (A & B) and A – which is
precisely the value assigned to pA(B) by (7*).
All that remains to be asked is what grounds Edgington could possibly
have for refusing to allow that (12) constitutes precisely the ‘repair’ which
she claimed (11) to be ‘beyond’. Plainly, she cannot object that (12) assigns
a different value to pA(B) from that assigned to it by (7*), which she
accepts, since I have just proved otherwise. Moreover, as we have just seen,
(12) has the virtue of explaining precisely why (7*) assigns the correct value
to pA(B).
205
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Index
abstract objects, 15, 21, 54, 74, 92, 99, 109, 113, chemical compounds, 151
142, 146 conceptions, 97
activities, 32 adequate, 97–8, 101, 107
actual world, the, 142, 159, 177–8 concepts, 97–8, 107–9, 153–6
Adams, E. W., 199 conceptual truths, 153–4
Adams’s thesis, 184, 193, 195–6 conceptualism, 107–9, 116, 153–4
adherence, 102, 107, 113 concrete objects, 15, 75, 91, 109
aggregates, 100–1, 113 conditional connective, 169
amorphous lump, 89, 91, 93, 108 conditional logic, 7, 168–9, 180, 202
animals, 16–18, 23, 25, 29 conditional probability, 7, 166–7, 182–4, 187,
anti-essentialism, 145 189–90, 192–4, 198, 201
anti-realism, 108, 116, 146 ratio-based definition of, 184, 186, 191–2, 196
Aristotle, 5–6, 55–7 conditional truth-value, 199–200
Armstrong, D. M., 40, 44 conditionalization, 190–2
aspect, 31 conditionals, 6, 167–8, 182
assertibility, 167 Austinian, 172–3
assertibility-conditions, 165–6 context-sensitivity of, 163, 175–6, 179, 181
attention, 22–3 counterfactual, 163–4, 172, 175–8, 180
attributes, 32–3, 56–8, 60–1 Dutchman, 164, 173
axiom of extensionality, 14, 74 with impossible antecedents, 171
axiom of regularity, 76 indicative, 163–5, 167, 172, 183
logical form of, 171
Barcan–Kripke proof, 120, 123, 128–30 material, 165, 173, 182
Barcan–Kripke step, 129–31 possible-worlds interpretations of, 176–7
belief, 185, 188 subjunctive, 25, 163–4, 166, 183
degrees of, 184–5, 187–8, 191, 193, 195 transitivity of, 174, 178–80
Bower, T. G., 86, 88 consistency, 142, 158
box-arrow symbol, 169 constants, 34, 51
brittleness, 104 count nouns, 12
Brody, B., 73 counterfactual fallacies, 173
Butler, J., 146 counting, 12–13
criteria of application, 12
categorial concepts, 11, 19, 21, 23, 25, 27–8 criteria of identity, 2, 4, 11–20, 25, 27,
categorial ontology, 3, 31, 39, 55, 62 69–71, 73–4, 79, 84, 87, 89, 91, 94–5, 98,
categorial terms, 13–14, 16, 27 100–2, 115
categorial uniqueness, problem of, 39 impredicative, 69
categorialism, 2, 11–12, 19, 21–4, 26–30 primitive, 84, 87, 89–90
perceptual, 21 type-(A), 80–1, 93
category mistakes, 57, 61 type-(B), 75, 77–8, 80–2, 84, 92–3
causal powers, 112–15 criterial relations, 14, 16, 19, 77, 81–2
characterization, 31, 33, 35 cross-categorial terms, 34
210
Index 211
Davidson, D., 76–7, 81, 91 H2O, 147, 149–52
de Finetti, B., 184 hierarchies of subsumption, 13
definite descriptions, 28, 149–50, 204 hunks of matter, 17–18, 24–5, 29, 90
definitions, 80 Hunter, G., 169–70, 174, 176
demonstratives, 80, 85–7 hydrogen atoms, 112, 114
directions, 71–2, 75, 78, 80
dispositions, 32, 41, 104–5, 195 identity, 4–5, 14, 35, 37–8, 51, 60, 92, 95, 119, 146,
accidental, 43–4 150, 203–4
essential, 43 indeterminate, 134–7
idiosyncratic, 41–2 of indiscernibles, 73
Dretske, F., 40 necessity of, 119–20, 123, 128–9, 133, 150
Dudman, V. H., 164 non-contingency of, 128–34, 138
Dummett, M., 71, 84–8, 93, 108 personal, 72
primitive, 115
Edgington, D., 7, 183–9, 191–4, 197–202 relative, 95–6
electrons, 38, 112, 114–15, 135–6 substitutivity of, 132–4
empirical evidence, 155 vague, 120
empty set, 76 identity conditions, 5, 81, 92, 94, 103, 106, 115–16,
essence precedes existence, 99, 148–9, 152, 155, 157 141, 153
essences, 5–6, 56–7, 97, 99–102, 105–15, 144–5, indeterminacy, 121
147–8, 150–4, 156–7, 203 indexical expressions, 175
general, 97, 145 individual accidents, 56
individual, 98, 145 individual substances, 33, 39
real, 147 individuation, 11, 19, 52, 86–90, 93, 108
essential dependence, 114–15, 146 principles of, 19–20
essential truths, 153–4 individuative concepts, 94, 98, 107, 116
essentialism, 144 individuators, 20
serious, 144, 158, 160 inference problem, 40
Evans, G., 5, 119–24, 126–9, 131–2, 135–7 inference to the best explanation, 143
events, 65, 76, 81, 152 infinity, 62
exemplification, 31, 36–7 inherence, 56, 58, 60
dispositional, 36–7 innateness, 86, 88–9, 93
occurrent, 36 instantiation, 31, 33, 35, 40
existence, 4, 51, 54, 60, 64, 66, 116, 204 islands, 18
existential dependence
strong, 37–8 Jackson, F., 165
weak, 37–8 Jansen, L., 41
external world, the, 155
Kant, I., 4
facts, 121–2, 125, 157 kinds, 12, 14, 27, 32–3, 38, 40–1, 75, 104, 111
Fantology, 51, 54–5, 57 natural, 19, 149
feature-placing language, 86, 89, 93 Kripke, S. A., 5–6, 133, 147, 149
Fine, K., 6 Kuratowski, K., 96–8
forms of thought, 1
four-category ontology, the, 31–5, 37, 39, 45 lambda symbol, 122
Frege, G., 3–4, 51–5, 57, 70, 72–5, 78, 80–2 language of thought, 89
Fregean thesis, the, 70–1, 73, 78–9, 82–4, 87, Leibniz, G. W., 73
89–90, 93 Leibniz’s law, 95, 103, 122, 125, 127–8, 132, 134
functional expressions, 71–2 Lewis, D. K., 6, 113, 142, 158, 166, 177, 180, 183–4,
functions, 54 193, 199
fuzzy boundaries, 120–1, 135 life, 16, 18
sameness of, 16, 19
Geach, P. T., 74, 95 lines, 71–2
generality, 204 living organisms, 105
God, 148 Locke, J., 5, 12, 16–17, 70, 97, 100, 144, 146–7
212 Index
logic, 34, 119 perception, 21–2
formal, 55, 63, 134 persistence conditions, 104–6, 116
free, 130 individual, 106
laws of, 130–1 sortal, 11, 13–14, 18–19, 106
second-order, 57, 62 person-stages, 72
lotteries, 167, 193–4 phase changes, 19, 42
lumps, 100–7, 110, 113–14, 153 philosophical logic, 1
planets, 150
manifestations, 32 possible worlds, 6, 54, 110–11, 139–41, 144, 156, 158
Marcus, R. B., 5 abstractionism concerning, 142–3, 158–60
material composition, 103–5 accessibility relations between, 140
material constitution, 105–6, 109, 116 concretism concerning, 142–3, 157–8, 160
material implication, 182 fictionalism concerning, 143, 160
material objects, 16 similarity between, 177–9
mereological sums, 112–13 precisifications, 124, 137
metamorphosis, 14, 16, 18 predicables, 56–7, 63
metaphysical possibility, 98, 110–11, 115, 139, 151–2 predicate logic, 34, 50–1, 57, 141
modal combinatorialism, 143 predicates, 52–3, 98, 131, 133
modal logic, 6–7, 124, 139–40, 180 predications, 56, 58, 63–4, 203
modal operators, 171, 182 categorial, 3, 50, 63–5
modal primitivism, 144 dispositional, 3, 31
modality, 6, 119, 139, 156–7, 160, 166, 177, 203–4 formal, 2–3
alethic, 165, 172, 182, 202 material, 2
epistemic, 165, 172, 182, 202 occurrent, 3, 31
modes, 32–3, 37, 40, 56, 58, 60–1 primary substances, 52, 55–6, 58, 60–1, 72
modus ponens, 168, 170, 173 principle of charity, 179
mountains, 15, 17–18, 20, 121 principle of instantiation, the, 44–5
principles of composition, 112
naming, 29–30 probability calculus, 184, 186, 190–1
natural kind terms, 26–30, 149 probability functions, 196–8, 201
natural laws, 32, 40–2 proper names, 26–30, 51, 72, 79, 149
conditional, 42, 44–5 properties, 34, 51, 53–4, 57, 62, 122, 127, 130–3
natural necessitation, 40 property abstraction, 131, 133–4
NCI. See identity:non-contingency of propositional attitudes, 185, 188
necessary self-identity, 130–1 propositions, 142, 157, 159, 175–6, 183, 185, 193,
necessary truths, 130 197, 200
Nef, F., 43 atomic, 51, 60
negation, 204 protons, 112, 114
numbers, 79 Putnam, H., 108, 147, 149