Alliance Bank Outlook
Alliance Bank Outlook
Alliance Bank Outlook
ALLIANCE BANK
MALAYSIA
(ABMB MK EQUITY, ALLI.KL) 03 Sep 2018
MFRS 9 impact in line with expectation
Company report BUY
1.0
400 Day-1 impact MFRS 9 of 20bps decline to its CET1, Tier 1
200 and total capital ratios to 13.2%, 13.6% and 18.2%
0.0 0 respectively was lower than management’s guidance of a
Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-17 40bps decline. The increase in provisions by 22.0%
(RM147mil) from the implementation of MFRS 9 was in line
ABMB MK FBMKLCI Index with guidance of not more than 25.0% increase above its
total provisions.
EXHIBIT 1: RESULTS COMPARISON
Income Statement (RM Mil, FYE 31 Mar) 1Q18 4Q18 1Q19 % QoQ % Yoy
Interest income 477 475 492 3.6% 3.2%
Interest expense -259 -250 -248 -1.0% -4.3%
Net interest income 217 224 244 8.7% 12.2%
Islamic banking income 78 83 83 -0.7% 6.2%
Non interest income 91 96 74 -22.4% -18.5%
Total income 387 404 401 -0.6% 3.7%
Overhead expenses -176 -212 -183 -13.6% 3.8%
Pre-provision profit 210 191 218 13.8% 3.7%
Loan impairment allowances -30 -38 -37 -1.0% 23.4%
Other allowances 0 0 0 nm nm
Associates and JV income 21 46 20 -56.5% -4.8%
Pretax profit 180 154 181 17.8% 0.6%
Income tax -45 -41 -45 9.3% -0.7%
Minority interest
Net profit 135 113 136 20.8% 1.0%
EPS (sen) 8.8 7.3 8.8 20.5% 0.0%
Balance Sheet (RM Mil, FYE 31 Mar) 1Q18 4Q18 1Q19 % QoQ % Yoy
Gross loans and advances 38,990 40,307 40,471 0.4% 3.8%
Net loans and advances 38,645 39,990 40,042 0.1% 3.6%
Customer deposits 44,192 42,740 41,995 -1.7% -5.0%
Gross impaired loans 435 578 637 10.3% 46.5%
Average shareholders funds 5,135 5,391 5,424 0.6% 5.6%
Ratios (%)
Net LD 87.4% 93.6% 95.3%
CASA 35.3% 37.3% 37.4%
Cost to income 45.6% 52.6% 45.7%
Annualised Credit cost 0.31% 0.37% 0.37%
GIL/Gross NPL 1.12% 1.43% 1.57%
Loan loss coverage 87.5% 64.5% 79.7%
Loan loss coverage (inclusive of regulatory reserves) 122.1% 96.5% 108.0%
Liquidity coverage ratio 143.7% 159.9% 150.3%
NIM 2.32% 2.50% 2.43%
ROE 10.5% 8.4% 10.1%
CET1 ratio 12.6% 13.4% 12.8%
CCR 12.6% 13.8% 13.3%
RWCR 17.2% 18.3% 17.8%
1QFY19 EARNINGS WITHIN EXPECTATION 1QFY19 total income grew 3.7%YoY supported by higher
net fund based partially offset by softer non-fund-based
The group reported a higher net profit of RM136mil in income. The rise in NII (including of Islamic banking) rose
1QFY19 (+20.8%QoQ; +1.0%YoY). 1QFY19 earnings were 8.0%YoY contributed by the group’s efforts in growing the
within expectations, making up 24.0% of our and 23.8% of higher risk-adjusted return (RAR) loans and changing its
consensus estimates respectively. loan portfolio mix. Meanwhile, NOII (including Islamic non-
fund based income) fell by 10.3%YoY due to a drop in wealth
management income, FX trading income gain and realised
gains from financial investments.
AOA has been gaining traction with a growth in outstanding
balances to RM1.57bil in 1QFY19. Year-on-year growth in
2
EXHIBIT 2: BREAKDOWN OF LOANS
Loan by purpose (RM Mil) 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 %QoQ %Yoy
Loan by customer type (RM Mil) 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 %QoQ %Yoy
Domestic non-bank financial institutions:-
stockbroking companies
others 376 365 373 452 315 -30.2% -16.2%
Domestic business enterprises:-
small medium enterprises (SME) 9,756 9,894 9,946 10,233 10,295 0.6% 5.5%
others 7,423 7,334 7,299 8,005 7,966 -0.5% 7.3%
3
EXHIBIT 3: BREAKDOWN OF DEPOSITS
Customer deposit by type (RM'Mil) 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 %QoQ %Yoy
Demand deposit 13,748 14,079 14,099 14,161 13,889 -1.9% 1.0%
Saving deposit 1,868 1,848 1,835 1,793 1,801 0.5% -3.6%
Time deposit 23,585 24,855 21,317 24,143 24,133 0.0% 2.3%
Money market deposits 2,253 1,810 2,391 2,277 1,697 -25.5% -24.7%
Negotiable instrument of deposit 2,738 156 716 367 476 29.9% -82.6%
Structured deposits
44,192 42,748 40,357 42,740 41,995 -1.7% -5.0%
Core customer deposit 39,201 40,783 37,251 40,096 39,822 -0.7% 1.6%
Gross loan grew 3.8%YoY in 1QFY19 compared to 1QFY19 saw the group's NIM declining by 7bps QoQ at
2.5%YoY in 4QFY18. On a net basis, loan growth was 2.43%. Its funding cost increased by 14bps QoQ contributed
3.6%YoY. by its full quarter impact of deposit initiatives (+7bps QoQ)
and the repricing of deposits rate higher following the OPR
Higher RAR loans (SME, commercial, share margin,
hike of 25bps in Jan 18 (+4bps QoQ). The rise in funding
consumer unsecured lending and Alliance One Account – a
cost had more than offset the increase in gross margins by
debt consolidator facility) continued to grow at a stronger
5bps QoQ driven largely by the change in loan mix in favour
pace of 21.3%YoY but this was offset by lower RAR loans
of higher RAR loans. Moving forward, we expect pressure
(mortgages business premises loans, hire purchase and
on funding cost to intensify due to a stiff competition for
corporate loans) which contacted by 4.4%YoY. Higher RAR
deposits moving closer to the implementation of NSFR. The
loans now accounts for circa 37% of the group's total gross
group is hopeful of keeping its NIM stable for FY19 with the
loans, a slight increase from 4QFY18’s 36%. We understand
tilt of its portfolio more towards the higher RAR loans to
that the growth in commercial and corporate loans is still
mitigate the pressure of a rise in funding cost.
slow.
4
EXHIBIT 4: NON-INTEREST INCOME
Other Operating Income (RM Mil) 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19
Fee income
Service charges and fees 8 7 9 7 9
Brokerage 7 5 6 7 6
Portfolio Management fees
Commission 23 23 21 21 24
Processing fees 1 3 4 3 2
Cards related income 3 6 3 2 2
Unit trust fee income
Commitment fees 4 4 4 4 4
Guarantee fees 4 3 4 4 4
Underwriting and arrangement fees 0 0 0
Corporate advisory fees 1 1 0 1 1
Fund management fees
Other fee income 1 1 1 1 1
Total Fee Income 53 53 52 49 52
Investment Income
Gains/losses arising from sale/redemption of:-
Financial assets held for trading 0 0 0 0 0
Financial assets available for sale 3 0 18 0
Financial assets held to maturity
Other Income
Foreign exchange gain/(loss):- -1 -4 7 -1 -3
Underwriting surplus before management expenses
Rental income
Net gain on disposal of PPE 0 0
Gain on liquidation of associate
Other operating income
Gains/loss from disposal of foreclosed properties
Gains in disposal of non current assets
Others 7 6 8 6 10
Total Other Income 6 2 14 6 7
TOTAL OTHER INCOME / NON INTEREST INCOME 91 85 89 96 74
SOFTER GROWTH IN CLIENT-BASED FEE Client-based fee income was slower with a growth of -
INCOME 0.1%YoY in 1QFY19 due to a slowdown in wealth
management fee income.
5
EXHIBIT 5: GROSS IMPAIRED LOAN RATIO
Gross impaired loan/NPLs by purpose (RM Mil) 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 %QoQ %YoY
Gross impaired loan/ NPL ratio by economic purpose: 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19
Absolute impaired loan balance rose by 10.3%QoQ or Cost to income ratio < 50.0%
RM59.7mil in 1QFY19. This was higher than the preceding Net credit cost: circa 35bps
quarter. The uptick was contributed by higher impaired non-
residential property & working capital loans (+RM43.2mil), ROE: 10.0%
business loans (+RM34.7mil) as well as R&R of loans Dividend payout: 48% maintained.
(+RM8.5mil) coupled with impairment of residential property
loans (+RM6.3mil). We understand that these impaired
loans are well collateralized, hence the net credit cost MAINTAIN BUY
remained stable at annualized 0.37% in line with our
estimate. This has resulted in the group GIL ratio to rise to With expenses for transformation largely over, higher
1.57% vs. to 1.43% in the preceding quarter and close to the revenue with cost savings are expected to trickle in to cover
industry’s 1.6%. the cost for the initiatives implemented. This should result in
an improved CI ratio in FY19. Among the positives, AOA is
Despite the rise in impaired loans, loan loss cover improved gaining traction and its growth has already reached the
QoQ due the increase in provisions from the implementation stage of being able to cover the intentional run-offs of the
of MFRS 9. Loan loss cover (including regulatory reserves) lower ROR mortgage loans.
rose to 108.0% from 96.7% in the preceding quarter.
Excluding regulatory reserves, the group's loan loss cover We maintain our BUY rating on ABMB with an unchanged
was 79.7%. fair value of RM5.00/share.
6
Alliance Financial Group 01 Jun 2017
16.00
2.00
14.00 +1δ
+1δ
Avg
12.00
1.50 Avg -1δ
-1δ 10.00
1.00 8.00
6.00
0.50
4.00
2.00
0.00
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Apr-12
Oct-12
Apr-13
Oct-13
Apr-14
Oct-14
Apr-15
Oct-15
Apr-16
Oct-16
0.00
Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16
Balance Sheet (RMmil, YE31 Mar) FY17 FY18 FY19F FY20F FY21F
Cash & deposits with FIs 1,381.8 2,768.8 4,479.9 4,006.7 686.1
Marketable securities 11,578.3 9,024.3 11,404.8 12,012.8 12,540.0
Total current assets 12,960.0 11,793.0 15,884.7 16,019.6 13,226.1
Net loans & advances 38,991.7 39,989.5 42,263.0 44,247.2 46,107.3
Statutory deposits nm nm nm nm nm
Long-term investments 1,437.4 1,408.3 1,407.5 1,397.7 1,394.2
Fixed assets 73.9 69.4 109.9 109.9 109.9
Intangible assets 377.4 409.4 359.9 359.9 359.9
Other long-term assets 248.6 232.4 220.6 215.8 213.7
Total LT assets 41,129.0 42,109.0 44,360.9 46,330.5 48,185.0
Total assets 54,089.1 53,902.0 60,245.6 62,350.1 61,411.1
Customer deposits 45,228.4 42,740.5 45,304.9 47,796.7 49,947.5
Deposits of other FIs 862.9 873.9 796.5 775.7 745.8
Subordinated debts 1,226.1 1,379.6 1,254.5 1,264.0 1,228.1
Hybrid capital securities 584.6 1,257.0 1,542.9 2,144.1 2,568.7
Other liabilities 1,072.8 2,191.5 5,439.1 4,236.4 582.6
Total liabilities 48,974.9 48,442.5 54,338.0 56,217.0 55,072.8
Shareholders’ funds 5,114.2 5,459.6 5,907.6 6,133.1 6,338.3
Minority interests - - - - -
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