17 septembre 2018 www.silatendancesemaintient.

ca
www.tooclosetocall.ca
PLQ PQ CAQ QS Vert PCQ NPDQ Ind
% 29.2 21.2 31.8 14.1 1.3 1.2 0.6 -
sièges 46 16 57 6 0 0 0 0
Chances de gagner* 13.3% 0.1% 84.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Chances d'une majorité 0.2% 0.0% 24.9% Probabilités de remporter la circonscription
(basées sur 10000 simulations)
PLQ PQ CAQ QS Vert PCQ NPDQ Ind PLQ PQ CAQ QS Vert PCQ NPDQ Ind
Abitibi-Est 29.1% 25.3% 29.1% 14.3% 0.1% 1.5% 0.6% 42% 16% 43% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Abitibi-Ouest 26.4% 29.6% 26.8% 15.8% 0.1% 0.6% 0.7% 24% 51% 26% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Acadie 59.4% 7.7% 17.1% 11.0% 3.2% 1.0% 0.6% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Anjou–Louis-Riel 39.4% 17.6% 23.3% 16.6% 2.0% 0.4% 0.7% 98% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Argenteuil 25.4% 27.5% 34.5% 9.0% 2.4% 0.6% 0.6% 9% 15% 76% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Arthabaska 22.2% 10.2% 53.3% 9.4% 1.4% 3.0% 0.5% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Beauce-Nord 27.7% 2.6% 58.0% 7.3% 0.3% 3.5% 0.5% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Beauce-Sud 43.0% 0.5% 44.9% 6.5% 0.3% 4.2% 0.5% 41% 0% 59% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Beauharnois 17.5% 33.9% 33.1% 11.2% 1.9% 1.8% 0.6% 0% 54% 46% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bellechasse 39.0% 9.0% 40.6% 7.3% 0.3% 3.3% 0.5% 42% 0% 58% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Berthier 7.8% 32.7% 42.2% 13.8% 2.3% 0.6% 0.6% 0% 12% 88% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bertrand 13.0% 30.3% 38.8% 15.6% 1.2% 0.6% 0.6% 0% 15% 85% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Blainville 18.8% 23.7% 44.2% 10.4% 1.1% 1.2% 0.6% 0% 0% 99% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bonaventure 31.7% 40.0% 12.7% 14.6% 0.1% 0.2% 0.7% 16% 84% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Borduas 12.0% 26.3% 44.0% 14.9% 0.9% 1.2% 0.5% 0% 1% 99% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bourassa-Sauvé 49.3% 13.6% 18.9% 14.8% 2.2% 0.4% 0.7% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bourget 18.8% 31.5% 26.0% 20.1% 2.5% 0.4% 0.7% 1% 74% 22% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Brome-Missisquoi 28.0% 15.2% 40.5% 14.1% 1.0% 0.7% 0.6% 6% 0% 94% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Chambly 11.6% 28.3% 44.8% 11.6% 2.0% 1.1% 0.6% 0% 2% 98% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Champlain 25.5% 23.6% 38.1% 11.0% 0.3% 1.0% 0.5% 5% 2% 94% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Chapleau 42.5% 12.6% 26.8% 14.4% 2.9% 0.1% 0.7% 97% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Charlesbourg 31.3% 15.8% 38.4% 10.7% 0.6% 2.7% 0.5% 17% 0% 83% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré 25.4% 30.7% 30.3% 10.1% 0.6% 2.4% 0.5% 10% 46% 44% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Châteauguay 37.9% 18.6% 30.6% 10.1% 1.0% 1.2% 0.6% 82% 0% 18% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Chauveau 30.1% 5.1% 48.3% 6.5% 0.6% 8.9% 0.5% 1% 0% 99% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Chicoutimi 22.1% 31.5% 26.9% 16.8% 1.4% 0.6% 0.6% 6% 69% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Chomedey 63.2% 7.7% 21.7% 5.0% 1.6% 0.2% 0.6% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Chutes-de-la-Chaudière 22.7% 11.2% 52.8% 9.1% 0.3% 3.5% 0.5% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Côte-du-Sud 32.6% 16.7% 35.1% 11.3% 0.3% 3.3% 0.5% 38% 0% 62% 0% 0% 0% 0%
D'Arcy-McGee 75.5% 0.0% 11.2% 7.9% 3.7% 1.2% 0.6% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Deux-Montagnes 13.7% 27.4% 45.5% 11.1% 1.1% 0.6% 0.6% 0% 1% 99% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Drummond–Bois-Francs 14.9% 21.0% 49.6% 11.8% 0.3% 1.8% 0.5% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Dubuc 29.4% 27.2% 29.3% 12.8% 0.1% 0.6% 0.6% 40% 22% 38% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Duplessis 27.2% 34.3% 22.9% 14.4% 0.1% 0.5% 0.6% 15% 81% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Fabre 42.7% 17.3% 28.2% 7.7% 2.6% 0.9% 0.5% 96% 0% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Gaspé 23.1% 46.7% 14.8% 13.8% 0.1% 0.7% 0.7% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Gatineau 44.0% 12.7% 26.9% 14.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.7% 98% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Gouin 7.6% 14.1% 11.7% 62.2% 3.2% 0.6% 0.7% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0%
Granby 8.2% 15.8% 62.6% 11.2% 0.9% 0.7% 0.6% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Groulx 18.4% 25.7% 42.0% 11.6% 1.2% 0.6% 0.6% 0% 2% 98% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Hochelaga-Maisonneuve 8.4% 29.2% 18.8% 40.0% 2.4% 0.4% 0.7% 0% 11% 0% 89% 0% 0% 0%
Hull 41.3% 16.1% 21.8% 19.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.7% 99% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Huntingdon 35.7% 14.5% 34.8% 12.0% 0.9% 1.6% 0.6% 55% 0% 45% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Iberville 15.0% 24.6% 44.6% 13.6% 0.9% 0.7% 0.5% 0% 1% 99% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Îles-de-la-Madeleine 38.5% 34.5% 11.6% 14.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.7% 68% 32% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Jacques-Cartier 68.3% 0.0% 16.0% 7.6% 5.5% 1.9% 0.6% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Jean-Lesage 24.3% 22.0% 30.3% 19.6% 0.7% 2.5% 0.5% 17% 7% 75% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Jeanne-Mance–Viger 66.6% 3.2% 14.8% 12.1% 2.1% 0.4% 0.7% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Jean-Talon 36.5% 20.7% 23.9% 14.4% 1.8% 2.2% 0.5% 95% 1% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Johnson 14.8% 25.5% 44.0% 13.2% 0.5% 1.4% 0.6% 0% 1% 99% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Joliette 7.7% 37.1% 37.9% 14.4% 1.1% 1.1% 0.6% 0% 47% 53% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Jonquière 16.3% 34.4% 35.1% 13.0% 0.1% 0.6% 0.6% 0% 46% 54% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Labelle 12.7% 37.8% 32.5% 14.7% 1.1% 0.6% 0.6% 0% 75% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lac-Saint-Jean 18.1% 35.8% 29.9% 14.1% 0.1% 1.4% 0.6% 0% 77% 22% 0% 0% 0% 0%
LaFontaine 61.5% 5.5% 17.4% 12.8% 1.8% 0.4% 0.7% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
La Peltrie 24.6% 8.1% 54.2% 9.2% 0.6% 2.8% 0.5% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
La Pinière 49.0% 7.9% 30.8% 9.9% 1.0% 0.7% 0.6% 98% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Laporte 38.4% 17.0% 28.2% 12.0% 2.5% 1.3% 0.6% 90% 0% 10% 0% 0% 0% 0%
La Prairie 22.3% 21.9% 42.8% 10.3% 1.0% 1.2% 0.6% 0% 0% 99% 0% 0% 0% 0%
L'Assomption 0.0% 26.3% 60.8% 10.2% 1.1% 1.0% 0.6% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Laurier-Dorion 31.8% 11.1% 14.7% 38.6% 2.6% 0.4% 0.8% 23% 0% 0% 77% 0% 0% 0%
Laval-des-Rapides 33.2% 28.1% 27.9% 7.9% 2.2% 0.2% 0.6% 63% 19% 19% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Laviolette–Saint-Maurice 27.3% 23.9% 34.8% 11.4% 0.3% 1.7% 0.6% 15% 4% 81% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Les Plaines 6.4% 29.6% 48.2% 12.8% 1.1% 1.4% 0.6% 0% 1% 99% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lévis 25.9% 12.5% 47.0% 10.4% 1.4% 2.2% 0.5% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lotbinière-Frontenac 32.2% 12.6% 41.6% 9.1% 0.3% 3.6% 0.5% 12% 0% 88% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Louis-Hébert 24.8% 16.0% 46.5% 8.0% 1.6% 2.6% 0.5% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marguerite-Bourgeoys 55.4% 11.3% 19.0% 9.0% 3.8% 1.0% 0.6% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marie-Victorin 14.7% 36.0% 28.5% 16.0% 3.2% 1.1% 0.6% 0% 83% 17% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marquette 40.8% 13.7% 25.8% 12.3% 4.9% 1.9% 0.6% 97% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Maskinongé 27.2% 21.1% 38.3% 11.5% 0.3% 1.1% 0.5% 7% 0% 92% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Masson 6.2% 29.1% 51.4% 10.4% 1.1% 1.3% 0.6% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Matane-Matapédia 11.5% 55.3% 18.7% 13.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.7% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Maurice-Richard 27.8% 25.9% 20.3% 22.6% 2.3% 0.4% 0.7% 52% 32% 5% 11% 0% 0% 0%
Mégantic 30.6% 24.2% 30.5% 12.9% 0.5% 0.7% 0.6% 47% 7% 46% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Mercier 16.5% 14.0% 14.6% 52.3% 1.5% 0.4% 0.7% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0%
Mille-Îles 39.7% 22.1% 28.3% 6.9% 1.9% 0.5% 0.5% 91% 1% 8% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Mirabel 7.2% 29.5% 50.1% 10.3% 1.1% 1.1% 0.6% 0% 1% 99% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Montarville 20.3% 21.5% 45.1% 10.9% 0.9% 0.7% 0.6% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Montmorency 26.9% 15.9% 39.9% 11.1% 1.6% 4.1% 0.5% 4% 0% 96% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Mont-Royal–Outremont 52.0% 8.4% 17.9% 15.6% 4.1% 1.5% 0.6% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Nelligan 66.1% 3.8% 18.7% 4.8% 4.6% 1.4% 0.6% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Nicolet-Bécancour 17.4% 17.1% 48.3% 14.3% 0.3% 2.1% 0.5% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce 63.5% 1.8% 14.2% 11.9% 6.9% 1.0% 0.6% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Orford 30.4% 22.0% 30.2% 15.5% 0.5% 0.8% 0.6% 50% 4% 47% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Papineau 37.9% 18.7% 27.2% 14.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.7% 90% 0% 9% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Pointe-aux-Trembles 13.2% 33.7% 32.0% 17.7% 2.3% 0.4% 0.8% 0% 58% 41% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Pontiac 59.9% 3.1% 20.8% 14.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.7% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Portneuf 31.9% 10.1% 44.6% 9.7% 0.6% 2.7% 0.5% 5% 0% 95% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Prévost 12.2% 27.9% 44.0% 13.6% 1.1% 0.6% 0.6% 0% 2% 98% 0% 0% 0% 0%
René-Lévesque 19.8% 43.9% 22.6% 12.0% 0.1% 1.0% 0.6% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Repentigny 10.7% 28.8% 47.0% 10.7% 1.1% 1.1% 0.6% 0% 2% 98% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Richelieu 15.6% 30.1% 39.3% 10.9% 2.3% 1.3% 0.6% 0% 13% 87% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Richmond 26.0% 22.2% 34.6% 13.6% 1.8% 1.2% 0.6% 11% 2% 87% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rimouski 19.4% 35.2% 23.9% 20.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.7% 1% 92% 6% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata 40.7% 18.1% 25.6% 14.7% 0.1% 0.2% 0.7% 97% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Robert-Baldwin 73.5% 0.2% 13.9% 6.7% 3.7% 1.4% 0.6% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Roberval 43.4% 28.1% 16.9% 10.3% 0.1% 0.6% 0.6% 97% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rosemont 19.8% 32.8% 16.6% 27.3% 2.3% 0.3% 0.7% 2% 78% 0% 20% 0% 0% 0%
Rousseau 3.0% 32.9% 49.2% 12.5% 1.1% 0.7% 0.6% 0% 2% 98% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue25.9% 26.9% 27.3% 18.7% 0.1% 0.5% 0.6% 27% 33% 39% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Saint-François 28.6% 27.7% 25.1% 15.1% 1.7% 1.2% 0.6% 46% 35% 18% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne 39.8% 18.4% 18.7% 16.4% 4.8% 1.4% 0.6% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Saint-Hyacinthe 17.3% 23.0% 43.3% 13.5% 0.9% 1.4% 0.5% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Saint-Jean 17.1% 25.5% 41.4% 13.3% 0.9% 1.3% 0.6% 0% 2% 98% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Saint-Jérôme 8.3% 33.7% 42.9% 12.2% 1.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0% 13% 87% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Saint-Laurent 62.0% 0.9% 19.7% 10.8% 3.8% 2.3% 0.6% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques 19.3% 20.9% 14.5% 41.8% 2.3% 0.3% 0.7% 0% 0% 0% 99% 0% 0% 0%
Sainte-Rose 31.1% 24.0% 35.2% 8.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.6% 29% 3% 68% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sanguinet 14.8% 30.2% 41.8% 10.3% 1.0% 1.5% 0.6% 0% 7% 93% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sherbrooke 26.4% 25.7% 24.6% 20.0% 1.5% 1.3% 0.6% 39% 33% 25% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Soulanges 38.9% 19.2% 29.9% 9.4% 1.1% 0.8% 0.6% 87% 0% 13% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Taillon 19.3% 28.8% 34.2% 15.4% 1.0% 0.7% 0.6% 1% 24% 76% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Taschereau 23.5% 20.9% 22.4% 29.8% 0.7% 2.3% 0.5% 14% 6% 10% 70% 0% 0% 0%
Terrebonne 10.2% 31.4% 45.0% 11.0% 1.2% 0.6% 0.6% 0% 5% 95% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Trois-Rivières 27.5% 22.6% 33.3% 14.0% 0.3% 1.7% 0.5% 21% 3% 75% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Ungava 30.8% 28.2% 27.0% 12.7% 0.1% 0.6% 0.6% 52% 27% 21% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Vachon 22.0% 28.3% 35.6% 11.8% 1.0% 0.7% 0.6% 2% 17% 81% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Vanier-Les Rivières 33.7% 13.1% 38.6% 10.6% 0.6% 2.9% 0.5% 26% 0% 74% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Vaudreuil 47.1% 12.7% 26.9% 9.2% 2.2% 1.2% 0.6% 99% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Verchères 8.4% 37.5% 40.3% 11.6% 1.0% 0.7% 0.6% 0% 37% 63% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Verdun 37.9% 19.7% 19.9% 15.9% 4.6% 1.3% 0.6% 99% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Viau 51.1% 9.4% 16.1% 20.0% 2.3% 0.4% 0.7% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Vimont 39.9% 20.0% 30.0% 7.1% 1.9% 0.5% 0.6% 88% 0% 11% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Westmount–Saint-Louis 62.7% 0.0% 18.1% 11.9% 5.7% 1.0% 0.6% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

*gagner l'élection=remporter le plus de sièges