Johnson and Johnson, Inc.: Data Overview
Johnson and Johnson, Inc.: Data Overview
Johnson and Johnson, Inc.: Data Overview
P/E (F1) Rel to Industry 11.44 Q1 (Current Qtr) Q2 (Next Qtr) F1 (Current Year) F2 (Next Year)
PEG Ratio 3.10 Revisions: 8 Revisions: 8 Revisions: 11 Revisions: 10
Up: 5 Down: 3 Up: 6 Down: 2 Up: 11 Down: 0 Up: 6 Down: 4
P/S (F1) 4.71
Growth Score
Proj. EPS Growth (F1/F0) 7.14% 60 30 7 Current 60 30 7 Current 60 30 7 Current 60 30 7 Current
Days Days Days Days Days Days Days Days Days Days Days Days
Hist. EPS Growth (Q0/Q-1) 1.32 Q1 +1.13% Q2 +1.75% F1 +1.13% F2 +0.26%
Qtr CFO Growth -32.33
Momentum Score Most Accurate: 1.79 Most Accurate: 1.74 Most Accurate: 7.18 Most Accurate: 7.73
Zacks Consensus: 1.79 Zacks Consensus: 1.74 Zacks Consensus: 7.18 Zacks Consensus: 7.73
1 week Volume change 5.67%
Q1 0.00% Q2 0.00% F1 0.00% F2 0.00%
1 week Price Cng Rel to Industry 5.11%
Reported: 1.83 Reported: 1.83 Reported: 1.58 Reported: 1.68 Average 4 Qtr
Surprise
Estimate: 1.79 Estimate: 1.77 Estimate: 1.56 Estimate: 1.65
Q End 06/17 Q End 03/17 Q End 12/16 Q End 09/16
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The data on the front page and all the charts in the report represent market data as of 08/03/17, while the report's text is as of
07/31/2017
Overview
New Brunswick, NJ based Johnson & Johnson, Inc. focuses on the
development, manufacturing and marketing of pharmaceutical,
medical, and consumer related healthcare products. Its worldwide
business is divided into three segments: Pharmaceutical, Medical
Devices and Consumer. In full year 2016, these segments
contributed 46.5%, 34.9% and 18.6%, respectively, to the
company’s total revenue of $71.9 billion (up 2.6%).
Consumer Segment – This segment includes a broad range of products covering the areas of baby care, beauty, oral care, wound
care and women’s health care, as well as over-the-counter (OTC) pharmaceutical products. The division posted sales of $13.3 billion
in 2016, down 1.5%..
The Aug 2012 Aragon acquisition added Aragon’s lead pipeline candidate, JNJ-927 (apalutamide), which is in late-stage
development for pre-metastatic prostate cancer (CRPC), to J&J's pipeline This acquisition signifies Johnson & Johnson’s attempt to
strengthen its prostate cancer franchise especially once Zytiga loses exclusivity. The successful development of apalutamide will
consolidate the company’s position in the prostate cancer market. The company has also tied up with TESARO for the
development and commercialization (except) of niraparib in prostate cancer.
Johnson & Johnson also has a deal with Achillion for the development of hepatitis C virus (HCV) candidates. In Feb 2017, J&J
acquired Abbott’s vision care business, Abbott Medical Optics for $4.325 billion. In Jun 2017, J&J acquired Swiss biotech Actelion
for $30 billion, which will diversify its revenues in the pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) category and bolster long-term growth.
The company has sufficient funds to pursue additional bolt-on acquisitions and deals to boost its portfolio. In 2016, it spent $5 billion
on M&A and major licensing deals. The company is also returning value to shareholders through share buybacks. J&J completed
approximately 75% of its $10 billion share buyback program in 2016 and fully completed the program in the first half of 2017.
Deep Pipeline: Johnson & Johnson continues to work on strengthening its Pharma segment, which has been driving revenues over
the past few quarters.
Johnson & Johnson expects to launch or file for approval for more than 10 new blockbuster products by 2021. The company said
that each of these products has blockbuster potential. The company is targeting more than 50 line extensions of existing and new
drugs as well. This should help lessen the impact of the genericization of key products in the pharma portfolio.
The company’s key areas of focus include immunology, infectious diseases & vaccines, neuroscience, cardiovascular &
metabolism, and oncology while a sixth therapeutic area -- pulmonary arterial hypertension -- was added with the Actelion
acquisition.
Key late-stage candidates in the company’s pipeline include esketamine (treatment-resistant depression – filing expected in 2018),
apalutamide (pre-metastatic prostate cancer – filing expected in 2017), sirukumab (rheumatoid arthritis – filed in EU and U.S. in Sep
2016 - as well as major depressive disorder), guselkumab (psoriasis – under review in the EU; phase III for psoriatic arthritis),
niraparib (prostate cancer - filings expected in 2019), talacotuzumab (acute myeloid leukemia), erdafitinib (solid tumors), and
imetelstat (myelofibrosis) among others. Guselkumab/Tremfya was approved in the U.S. in Jul 2017 for plaque psoriasis while
sirukumab could gain approval and launched later this year.
Meanwhile, the company is moving a 3DAA combination of Olysio, AL-335 and odalasvir into late-stage studies for HCV. It has also
filed regulatory applications in both the U.S. and the EU for its two-drug HIV regimen of rilpivirine and dolutegravir as a single tablet.
J&J is also developing Symtuza, a darunavir-based once-daily single-tablet regimen for the treatment of HIV.
New Products Hold Promise: Apart from established products in the pharma segment, new products like Imbruvica, Xarelto and
Darzalex are performing well. Zytiga and Imbruvica are notably successful launches in the company’s oncology portfolio. The
company is also working on expanding the label of currently marketed products like Simponi, Stelara, Zytiga and Imbruvica. New
products introduced within the past five years accounted for approximately 22% of 2016 sales.
For Imbruvica, an additional seven indications have been approved since its launch and the drug is also being evaluated in a
number of combination therapies. Darzalex is being evaluated in a comprehensive clinical development program that includes five
phase III studies across a range of treatment settings in multiple myeloma, such as in frontline and relapsed settings. For Xarelto,
there are eight new indications seeking studies underway as part of the EXPLORER clinical development program. We believe in
the forthcoming period, these drugs will contribute significantly to the company’s top line.
In addition, other marketed drugs like Simponi and Stelara hold promise. In 2016, Stelara’s label was expanded in the U.S. as well
as EU for the treatment of Crohn’s disease. J&J is also evaluating Stelara as a subcutaneous treatment for UC (phase III ongoing)
and axial spondylytis (phase III).
Moreover, in Dec 2016, J&J filed two line extensions for Simponi Aria in psoriatic arthritis and ankylosing spondylitis. Johnson &
Johnson’s new product launch track record has been good.
The company is also working on turning around its Medical Devices business by developing innovative products, expanding global
presence and implementing novel commercial models. Meanwhile, the restructuring initiative in this segment is expected to deliver
approximately $800 million - $1 billion in annual savings with the majority expected by the end of 2018. Management expects the
Medical Devices segment to grow faster in 2017. In fact, sales in the segment improved from 2016 levels in the first two quarters of
2017.
Reasons To Sell:
Generics and Currency Hit Sales: Quite a few products in the company’s portfolio Challenges for the
including Invega and Ortho Tri-Cyclen Lo are facing generic competition. Moreover, company remain in the
biosimilar competition for Remicade entered several major EU markets in Feb 2015. form of generic
Pfizer launched its biosimilar version of Remicade in the U.S. in late Nov 2016. Though competition, pricing
the rate of penetration of a biosimilar entrant may be modest, the launch brings a pressure and pipeline
certain element of uncertainty to the Pharma segment as there may be an additional setbacks.
impact as the year progresses. In Apr 2017, Samsung Bioepis’ biosimilar version of
Remicade also received FDA approval. Zytiga and Xarelto are also facing patent
challenges in the U.S. HCV sales continue to decline in the face of intense competition. Meanwhile, negative currency movement
will remain a headwind in 2017.
The Pharma segment is expected to see slower growth in 2017 as a number of key growth drivers like Remicade and Concerta
have slowed down and are facing competition.
FDA Warnings Could Affect Sales: The labels of products like Remicade and Simponi contain warnings regarding the risk of cancer
in children and teenagers. The inclusion of such warnings could lead to restricted sales of these products. In Feb 2010, the FDA
approved a risk management program (RiskMap) to inform about the risks of erythropoiesis-stimulating agents (ESAs). ESAs are
approved for the treatment of anemia that might arise out of kidney failure from certain kinds of chemotherapy. Johnson &
Johnson’s Procrit is an ESA which recorded 2016 global sales of $1.1 billion, up 3.5%. The inclusion of a safety-related boxed
warning on the label of Procrit has had an adverse impact on product sales and the introduction of the RiskMap is likely to restrict
sales further. Meanwhile, sales of the company’s SGLT2 inhibitor, Invokana/Invokamet, could be affected by the addition of
warnings regarding the increased risk of bone fractures.
Pipeline Setbacks: Johnson & Johnson has suffered its share of pipeline setbacks. These include failure to gain approval for
ceftobiprole (the company returned global rights for the candidate to its Swiss partner, Basilea Pharmaceuticals), a third CRL for the
supplemental new drug application (sNDA) for Xarelto for acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and the withdrawal of the EU application
for an additional indication for Velcade for the treatment of patients with relapsed follicular non-Hodgkin lymphoma. Johnson &
Johnson also announced that it no longer intends to seek EU approval for Risperdal Consta for bipolar I disorder. The company also
terminated its plans to seek approval for Invega for bipolar disorder. Another setback is bapineuzumab IV’s failure in two phase III
studies and its discontinuation.
Sales came in at $18.84 billion, slightly missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $18.89
billion by 0.3%. Sales increased 1.9% from the year-ago quarter, reflecting an operational
increase of 2.9% and a negative currency impact of 1%. Organically, excluding the impact of acquisitions and divestitures, sales
increased 0.5% on an operational basis.
Second-quarter sales grew 1.6% in the domestic market to $9.73 billion and 2.3% in international markets to $9.11 billion, reflecting
4.4% operational growth, partially offset by a 2.1% negative currency impact.
Segment Details
Pharmaceuticals segment sales declined 0.2% year over year to $8.64 billion, reflecting 1% operational growth and 1.2% negative
currency impact. Higher sales in international markets offset a weaker performance in the U.S.
Sales in the domestic market declined 2.6% to $5.01 billion, while international sales grew 3.3% to $3.63 billion, reflecting 6.1%
operational growth, partially offset by a 2.8% negative currency impact.
New products like Imbruvica (cancer) and Darzalex (multiple myeloma) continued to perform well. Other growth drivers were Stelara
and Invega Sustenna.
Imbruvica continues to gain share across all indications globally. Stelara also gained market share in the quarter backed by strong
adoption for the newer indication of Crohn's disease. Darzalex enjoyed strong adoption in outside U.S. markets and accelerated
adoption in the U.S. across all lines of therapy.
In the cardiovascular metabolic space, pricing pressure and competitive payer dynamics hurt sales of Invokana and Xarelto. However,
management expects sales of Xarelto to pick up in the second half of the year.
Similar to the first quarter, increased rebating/discounting in managed care and government channels hurt sales of some products in
the quarter. Invokana/Invokamet sales declined 23% due to increasing discounts for managed care contracting and higher utilization in
the Medicaid channel.
Zytiga sales fell 7.2% due to higher utilization of independent patient assistance foundations, which has been hurting sales since the
past two quarters.
Sales of Remicade declined 14% in the quarter with U.S. sales declining 13.9% and international sales declining 5.6% due to biosimilar
competition. Pfizer’s launch of Inflectra injection, a biosimilar version of Remicade, had a minor impact on share erosion of Remicade
in the second quarter. However, Remicade’s sales erosion in the second quarter was below management’s expectations.
Management also said that Remicade erosion, despite the entrance of a new biosimilar from Samsung, will be less than originally
expected.
Medical Devices segment sales continued to improve, coming in at $6.73 billion, up 4.9% from the year-ago period. It included an
operational increase of 5.9% and negative currency movement of 1%.
Sales gained mainly from the inclusion of the first full quarter of revenues from Abbott Medical Optics acquisition, which added 5.1% to
sales growth. Excluding the impact of all acquisitions and divestitures, on an operational basis, worldwide sales increased 1.1%.
Sales in the domestic market rose 6.1% year over year to $3.23 billion. International market sales increased 3.9% (operational increase
of 5.8%) year over year to $3.5 billion.
Operational growth was driven by Advanced Surgery products, electrophysiology products in the Cardiovascular business and Acuvue
contact lenses in the Vision Care business, which made up for a weaker sales performance in the Diabetes Care unit
The Consumer segment recorded revenues of $3.48 billion in the reported quarter, up 1.7% year over year (operational increase of
2.3%). Foreign currency movement negatively impacted sales in the segment by 0.6%. Sales in the domestic market grew 7.4% from
the year-ago period to $1.49 billion.
Slower growth in baby care products was partially offset by growth in beauty and over-the-counter products. Sales in the segment were
hurt by global consumer category slowdown across many of the company’s markets, though to a lesser extent than the first quarter.
Meanwhile, the international segment recorded a decline of 2.2% to $1.99 billion, reflecting an operational decline of 1.1% and a
negative currency impact of 1.1%.
Margins Discussion
Cost of goods sold, as a percentage of sales, rose 60 basis points to 27.9%, primarily due to transactional currency and product mix
J&J raised its earnings guidance for 2017 and increased the lower end of its sales outlook.
J&J expects 2017 adjusted earnings per share in the range of $7.12 - $7.22, including currency impact, compared with $7.00 - $7.15
expected previously. The earnings guidance reflects expected operational constant currency growth rate of 7% to 8%, higher than 6%
to 8% expected previously.
The revenue guidance is in the range of $75.8 billion to $76.1 billion, compared with $75.4 billion to $76.1 billion expected previously
mainly due to more favorable FX rates. Currency fluctuations are expected to impact revenues by about 10 bps (previously 100 bps)
and earnings by $0.05 per share (previously $0.12 per share) in 2017.
The operational constant currency sales growth rate was in fact lowered and is now expected to be between 5.5% to 6% versus 5.8%
and 6.8% previously Organic sales growth, excluding the impact of acquisitions and divestitures, is expected to be in the range of 2.5%-
3%. This range is also lower than 3%-3.5% expected previously and marks a sharp decline from 7.4% in 2016.
The guidance includes the impact of the Abbott Medical Optics acquisition as well as Remicade biosimilar. However, the company does
not expect any biosimilar entrants for Procrit, Zytiga, Trevicta, Risperdal Consta, or Invega Sustenna in the U.S. in 2017.
Adjusted pre-tax operating margins are expected to be flat or slightly decrease in 2017. This compares unfavorably with the previous
expectation of flat or slightly higher margins as investments levels will increase in the second half
Adjusted tax rate guidance was maintained in the range of approximately 19% to 20%.
Chief executive officer, Alex Gorsky said that J&J’s sales and earnings growth will accelerate in the second half of the year.
Organically, excluding acquisition divestitures and purchase price adjustment, sales grew 2.4% in the first half of the year. The
company expects organic sales growth of 4% in the second half of the year with sales expected to accelerate in all the three segments.
Pharma segment will benefit from easier comps in the second half compared with the first, continued growth of Imbruvica and
Darzalex, upcoming new product launches like Tremfy, better performance in Stelara as well as Xarelto and meaningful contribution
from Actelion. These positives will offset loss of sales of some drugs like Invokana due to higher managed care discounting.
Increased contribution from new products and strong growth in Vision Care are expected to lead to better sales trends in the Medical
Devices segment. However, weaker macroeconomic dynamics in some consumer categories and geographic markets will continue to
put pressure on sales in the Consumer segment.
Recent News
Vaccine Collaboration with Bavarian Nordic – Jul 26
J&J announced that it has formed a collaboration with Bavarian Nordic to develop vaccines regimes against HBV virus and HIV-1 virus
by leveraging Bavarian Nordic’s MVA-B technology with J&J’s AdVac and DNA-based vaccine technologies.
J&J announced that data from the Phase IIb LATTE-2 study published in The Lancet showed that a combination regimen of HIV
injectible medicines, J&J’s rilpivirine and Glaxo’s cabotegravir, when given together every 4 or 8 weeks was as effective as 3-drug oral
antiretroviral therapy (ART) at maintaining HIV-1 viral suppression through 96 weeks (HIV-1 RNA <50 copies per mL).
J&J announced that it has received a positive opinion from the CHMP of the EMA recommending marketing authorization for Symtuza,
its darunavir-based once-daily single-tablet regimen for the treatment of HIV.
J&J announced that its board of directors has declared a cash dividend of $0.84 per share for the third quarter of 2017. The dividend is
payable on Sep 12, 2017 to shareholders of record at the close of business on Aug 29, 2017.
J&J announced that the FDA has granted priority review to a sNDA of Xarelto for a label expansion to include a 10 mg dose to reduce
the risk of recurrent venous thromboembolism (VTE). Xarelto is currently approved in a 20 mg dose formulation.
Darzalex Gets FDA Approval for Combination Use with Pomalyst – Jun 16
J&J announced that Darzalex has been approved by the FDA for use in combination with Celgene’s multiple myeloma drug Pomalyst
(pomalidomide) and dexamethasone. The combination has been approved for the treatment of patients with multiple myeloma who
have received at least two prior therapies including Revlimid (an immunomodulatory agent) and a proteasome inhibitor (PI).
The approval was based on data from the phase Ib EQUULEUS study, which showed an overall response rate (ORR) of 59.2% with
Darzalex in combination with Pomalyst and dexamethasone in the above mentioned patients.
J&J announced that it has completed the previously announced acquisition of Swiss biotech Actelion for an aggregate value of $30
billion in cash.
Value Score - -
Cash/Price 15.74 12.50 9.77 2.92 20.83 11.64
EV/EBITDA 14.23 14.40 12.74 NA 9.78 NA
PEG Ratio 3.10 2.23 1.99 2.42 2.18 2.28
Price/Book (P/B) 5.09 5.60 3.22 3.34 3.95 8.10
Price/Cash Flow (P/CF) 21.44 18.45 13.49 10.52 11.33 17.70
P/E (F1) 18.56 16.36 18.98 13.07 14.49 16.01
Price/Sales (P/S) 4.71 4.04 2.50 3.79 1.82 3.88
Earnings Yield 5.43% 6.11% 5.25% 7.78% 6.90% 6.25%
Debt/Equity 0.38 0.55 0.68 0.52 0.69 0.64
Cash Flow ($/share) 8.28 4.31 5.41 3.38 12.81 1.80
Growth Score - -
Hist. EPS Growth (3-5 yrs) 7.14% 8.53% 7.16% 6.22% 9.92% 20.24%
Proj. EPS Growth (F1/F0) 6.75% 7.03% 9.44% 6.62% 7.35% 11.80%
Curr. Cash Flow Growth 6.26% 4.59% 5.40% 8.49% 6.24% 1.38%
Hist. Cash Flow Growth (3-5 yrs) 5.75% -3.52% 6.71% -5.51% 2.81% -1.55%
Current Ratio 2.52 1.33 1.37 1.25 1.53 1.27
Debt/Capital 27.75% 35.65% 41.65% 34.41% 40.87% 39.16%
Net Margin 22.52% 17.14% 9.86% 15.84% 10.15% NA
Return on Equity 26.00% 26.68% 15.93% 24.35% 18.98% 45.26%
Sales/Assets 0.50 0.51 0.54 0.31 0.65 0.64
Proj. Sales Growth (F1/F0) 5.59% 5.44% 5.19% -0.07% 10.34% 12.83%
Momentum Score - -
Daily Price Chg 0.90% 0.27% -0.10% 1.55% 0.00% 0.00%
1 Week Price Chg 5.11% 3.15% -0.00% 4.48% 3.24% 3.94%
4 Week Price Chg 0.63% 0.63% 2.17% 0.63% 0.02% 1.63%
12 Week Price Chg 8.24% 0.92% 3.07% 1.18% 0.57% -4.28%
52 Week Price Chg 7.66% 1.46% 11.66% -4.89% 20.69% 0.54%
20 Day Average Volume 5,426,092 3,299,686 0 16,810,562 68,272 1,753,475
(F1) EPS Est 1 week change 0.00% 0.23% 0.08% 0.17% 1.16% 0.76%
(F1) EPS Est 4 week change 1.23% 0.81% 0.32% 0.09% -2.58% 2.05%
(F1) EPS Est 12 week change 1.29% 1.19% 1.00% -0.04% 2.54% 3.38%
(Q1) EPS Est Mthly Chg 0.99% -0.16% 0.00% -2.33% NA NA
Agreement
This is the extent which brokerage analysts are revising their earnings estimates in the same
direction. The greater the percentage of estimates being revised higher, the better the score for this
component.
For example, if there were 10 estimate revisions over the last 60 days, with 8 of those revisions up,
and the other 2 down, then the agreement factor would be 80% positive. If, however, 8 were to the
downside with only 2 of them up, then the agreement factor would be 80% negative. The higher the
percentage of agreement the better.
Magnitude
This is a measure based on the size of the recent change in the current consensus estimates. The
Zacks Rank looks at the magnitude of these changes over the last 60 days.
In the chart to the right, the display shows the consensus estimate from 60-days ago, 30-days ago,
7-days ago, and the most current estimate The difference between the current estimate and the
estimate from 60-days ago is displayed as a percentage. A larger positive percentage increase will
score better on this component.
Upside
This is the difference between the most accurate estimate, as calculated by Zacks, and the
consensus estimate. For example, a stock with a consensus estimate of $1.00, and a most
accurate estimate of $1.05 will have an upside factor of 5%.
This is not an indication of how much a stock will go up or down. Instead, it's a measure of the
difference between these two estimates. This is particularly useful near earnings season as a
positive upside percentage can be used to help predict a future surprise.
Surprise
The Zacks Rank also factors in the last few quarters of earnings surprises. Companies that have
positively surprised in the recent past have a tendency of positively surprising again in the future (or
missing if they recently missed).
A stock with a recent track record of positive surprises will score better on this factor than a stock
with a history of negative surprises. These stocks will have a greater likelihood of positively
surprising again.
Academic research has proven that stocks with the best Growth, Value, and Momentum Growth Score
characteristics outperform the market. The Zacks Style Scores rate stocks on each of these
individual styles and assigns a rating of A, B, C, D and F. An A, is better than a B; a B is better than Momentum Score
a C; and so on.
VGM Score
As an investor, you want to buy stocks with the highest probability of success. That means buying
stocks with a Zacks Rank #1 or #2, Strong Buy or Buy, which also has a Style Score of an A or a B.