Impact of Capital Structure On Profitability

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PAKISTAN BUSINESS REVIEW

Indexed and Abstracted by ECONLIT, Journal of Economic Literature
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Volume 16 Number 3 October 2014

Research
Monetary Approach to Exchange Rate Determination: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan
Ehsan Ahmed Shaikh & Javed Iqbal
Capital Structure and Profitability: A Comparative Study of Cement and Auto Sectors
of Pakistan
Shahzad Anwar & Usman Ali
Interest Rate and Inflation: A Case Study of Pakistan
Abu Bakar Ghaffari, Atiq-ur-Rehman & Malik Muhammad
Key to Sustainability: Embracing Change
Murtaza Abbas
Effect of Organizational Ethics on Job Satisfaction of Non-Life Insurance Employees
in Pakistan
Mehrukh Salman & Ali Taimur Baig
The Influence of Organizational Factors on Employees’ Commitment Levels: A Study
of the Banking Sector of Pakistan
Feryal Khan & Sohail Zafar
Intrinsic Motivation Effect on Learning in a Private Business School in Karachi
Shagufta Ghauri
Short Run and Long Run Performance of Initial Public Offerings in Pakistan
Abdul Raheman, M. Khalid Sohail, Bushra Zulfiqar, M. Ahsan, Aamir Ahmed
& Sohail Sheeraz
Academic Motivation and Performance of Female Students in Co-Education
Urfi Khalid Husain
Quality Of Life, Spiritual Wellness and Delinquent Tendencies among Adolescents
Naila Batool, Sohema Tahir & Muhammad Naveed Riaz
The Kullback– Leibler Rationale
Zara Omar
Discussion
Benefits of Data Decision Support System for Educational Institutions
Rabab Naqvi, Aqil Burney & Shelina Bhamani
Book Review
What Should I Do? Confronting Dilemmas of Teaching in Urban Schools
Alefiyah Sheikh Ismailhoshangabadwala
INSTITUTE OF BUSINESS MANAGEMENT
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Volume 16 Number 3 October 2014
Contents
Research Page No
Monetary Approach to Exchange Rate Determination: Empirical Evidence

from Pakistan
Ehsan Ahmed Shaikh & Javed Iqbal 446
Capital Structure and Profitability: A Comparative Study of Cement and
Auto Sectors of Pakistan
Shahzad Anwar & Usman Ali 468
Interest Rate and Inflation: A Case Study of Pakistan
Abu Bakar Ghaffari, Atiq-ur-Rehman & Malik Muhammad 491
Key to Sustainability: Embracing Change
Murtaza Abbas 516
Effect of Organizational Ethics on Job Satisfaction of Non-Life Insurance
Employees in Pakistan
Mehrukh Salman & Ali Taimur Baig 542
The Influence of Organizational Factors on Employees’ Commitment Levels:
A Study of the Banking Sector of Pakistan
Feryal Khan & Sohail Zafar 570
Intrinsic Motivation Effect on Learning in a Private Business School in Karachi
Shagufta Ghauri 591
Short Run and Long Run Performance of Initial Public Offerings in Pakistan
Abdul Raheman, M. Khalid Sohail, Bushra Zulfiqar, M. Ahsan,
Aamir Ahmed & Sohail Sheeraz 613
Academic Motivation and Performance of Female Students in Co-Education
Urfi Khalid Husain 646
Quality Of Life, Spiritual Wellness and Delinquent Tendencies among
Adolescents
Naila Batool, Sohema Tahir & Muhammad Naveed Riaz 662
The Kullback– Leibler Rationale
Zara Omar 676
Discussion
Benefits of Data Decision Support System for Educational Institutions
Rabab Naqvi, Aqil Burney & Shelina Bhamani 687
Book Review
What Should I Do? Confronting Dilemmas of Teaching in Urban Schools
Alefiyah Sheikh Ismailhoshangabadwala 699
PAKISTAN BUSINESS REVIEW OCT 2014

Volume 16 Number 3 Oct 2014
Chief Editor: Prof. Dr. Shahida Wizarat

Managing Editor: Sabina Mohsin
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Accountancy, University of Malaya, Dean, Faculty of Economics and
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Oct 2014 Volume 16 Number 3
Referees
Dr. Ishrat Husain, Institute of Business Administration, Karachi
Dr. Khalid Nadvi, IDS, University of Sussex
Prof. Dr Mehtab Karim, School of Public Policy, George Mason University, USA
Dr. Peter O’ Brien, SADCC, South Africa
Prof. Sarfaraz Qureshi, Islamabad
Dr. T.M. Roepstorff, UNIDO, Vienna
Dr. Shahid Hasan Siddiqui, Research Institute for Islamic Banking and Finance
Dr. K.M. Larik, Iqra University, Karachi
Dr. Javed Iqbal, University of Karachi, Karachi
Professor Dr. Rashid A. Naeem, Chairman, Department of Economics and Management Sciences,
Allama Iqbal Open University, Islamabad
Dr. Rizwana Zahid, Government APWA College for Women, Karachi
Dr. Arshi Ali, Federal Urdu University, Karachi
Dr. Abdul Wahab Suri, University of Karachi, Karachi
Prof. Dr. Abdul Waheed, University of Karachi, Karachi
Dr. Naveed, Institute of Business Administration (IBA), Karachi
Dr. Moazzam Khan Sherwani, Institute of Environment Studies, University of Karachi
Dr. Samiuzzaman, Global Environmental Lab (Pvt) Ltd. Korangi, Karachi
Dr. Anila Ambar Malik, University of Karachi, Karachi
Dr. Seema Munaf, University of Karachi, Karachi
Dr. Nabeel A. Zubairi, University of Karachi, Karachi
Dr. Zainab F. Zadeh, Bahria University, Karachi
Prof. Dr. Mudassir-ud-din, University of Karachi, Karachi
Ms. Yasmin Zafar, Institute of Business Administration (IBA), Karachi
Dr. Uzma Parveen, University of Karachi, Karachi
Mr. Mohsin H. Ahmed, Applied Economics Research Centre, University of Karachi,
Karachi
Prof. Ghulam Hussain, University of Karachi, Karachi
Mr. Mahboob-ul-Hassan, University of Karachi, Karachi
Dr. Muhammad Mahmood, Khadim Ali Shah Bukhari Institute of Technology, Karachi
Dr. Nargis Asad, Aga Khan University Hospital, Karachi
Dr. Abuzar Wajidi, University of Karachi, Karachi
Ms. Rubina Feroz, University of Karachi, Karachi
Prof. Dr. Talat A. Wizarat, Institute of Business Administration (IBA), Karachi
Dr. Muhammad Zaki, University of Karachi, Karachi
Mr. H. Jaleel Zubairi, Allied Bank Ltd. , Karachi
Dr. Zaira Wahab, Iqra University, Karachi
Dr. Ismail Saad, Iqra University, Karachi
Mr. Naim Farooqui, Sindh Bank Ltd, Karachi Cont’d.
Dr. Sara Azhar, University of Karachi, Karachi
Prof. Ahmad Farooq Shah, Bahauddin Zakarya University, Multan
Mr. M. Mazhar Khan, State Bank of Pakistan, Karachi
Mr. Mohammad Soliman, University of Sciences and Technology Chittagong,
Bangladesh
Prof. Abdul Mannan, School of Business, University of Liberal Arts Bangladesh
Dr. Fatima Imam, Federal Urdu University, Karachi
Prof. G.R. Pasha, Bahauddin Zakariya University, Multan
Mr. Shameel Ahmad Zubairi, University of Karachi, Karachi
Mr. Imran Naveed, State Bank of Pakistan, Karachi

Volume 16 Number 3 Oct 2014
Referees
Mr. Qaisar Mufti, Qaisar Mufti Associates, Shahra-e-Iraq Saddar, Karachi.
Ms. Afra Sajjad, ACCA Pakistan, Lahore
Dr. Khan Brohi, Institute of Environmental Engineering and Management, Jamshoro
Mr. Amir Hussain, WTO Cell, Trade Development Authority of Pakistan, Karachi
Dr. Tanveer Anjum, Department of Business Communications, Iqra University
Dr. Arifa Farid, Department of Philosophy, University of Karachi
Mr. Muhammad Asim, Department of Business Administration, Karachi
Mr. Muhammad Zubair, Department of Islamic History, University of Karachi,
Karachi
Dr. Aliya Zahid, Anatomy Department, Allama Iqbal Medical College, Lahore.
Dr. Qurrat-ul-ain, Sir Ganga Ram Hospital, Lahore.
Dr. Atif Mahmood, Shaheed Mohtarma Benazir Bhutto Medical College,
Dr. Muhammad Adnan Kanpurwala, Dept. of Physiology, Dow University Karachi.
Dr. Uzma Ali, Institute of Clinical Psychology, Karachi
Dr. Ali Rizvi, Universiti Brunei Darussalam, Brunei
Dr. Pervez Wasim, Applied Economics Research Centre, Karachi
Dr. Muhammad Usman Awan, Institute of Quality & Technology Managment,
Lahore
Dr. Amber Gul Rashid, IBA, Karachi
Dr.Javed Nayyar, Institute of Administrative Sciences (IAS),University of the Punjab,
Lahore, Pakistan.
Dr. Salman Razavi, Hailey College, Punjab University
Mr. Obaid ur Rehman, Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan
Dr. Anjum Aqeel, Applied Economics Research Centre, University of Karachi,
Karachi, Pakistan
Dr. Muhammad Saleem, Banking Service Corporation, State Bank of Pakistan,
Karachi Pakistan
Dr. Samina Khalil, Applied Economics Research Centre, University of Karachi,
Karachi, Pakistan
Dr. Faizan Iftikhar, Applied Economics Research Centre, University of Karachi,
Karachi, Pakistan
Dr. Shazia Ghani, Deputy Director, Banking Policy and Regulations Deppt,
State Bank of Pakistan
Syed Khurram Zaidi, Bank Islami Pakistan
Fahd Younus, Chief Internal Auditor, Khaadi, Pakistan
Dr. Afshan Huma, Dept of Educational Planning Policy Studies and Leadership
Allama Iqbal Open University, Islamabad, Pakistan
Munira Amir Ali, Agha Khan Education Services, Karachi, Pakistan
Production Unit
Literary Editor:
Muhammad Asif Khan
Production Associate and Editorial Co-ordinator:
Shahzad Ali

Research
Research Monetary Approach to Exchange Rate Determination . . .
MONETARY APPROACH TO
EXCHANGE RATE DETERMINATION:
EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM
PAKISTAN
Ehsan Ahmed Shaikh1 & Javed Iqbal2
Abstract
This Study, empirically, investigates monetary approach
to exchange rate determination between Pak Rupee vis-à-vis US$
employing flex price Frenkel-Bilson type model. ADF unit root tests
are conducted for macroeconomic fundamentals and it is found
that all variables, namely differential money stocks, differential
industrial production and differential nominal interest rate are
integrated of order one. Hence a test of cointegration using Johansen
cointegration technique is conducted. The findings of the
cointegration test reveal that there is only one cointegrating vector.
Sign of coefficient of differential money stock came out to be positive
and statistically significant, as we hypothesized it. Similarly,
coefficient of differential industrial production is also statistically
significant but its sign comes out to be positive which is contrary to
the prediction of our model.
Whereas the sign of the coefficient of differential interest is

positive; this is also contrary to our hypothesis. However it is what
has been envisaged by Mundel-Fleming and Dornbusch models.
Vector error model has also been estimated.
Keywords: Exchange rate, purchasing power parity, monetary model
JEL Classification: E 520
1- Pakistan Shipowners Govt. College, Karachi

2- Department of Mathematical Sciences, Institute of Business
Administration, Karachi, Pakistan
447 PAKISTAN BUSINESS REVIEW OCT2014

Monetary Approach to Exchange Rate Determination . . . Research
1.Introduction
One of the important puzzles in the areas of international

finance and economic literature is obscurity of explaining exchange
rate in floating exchange rate regime using macroeconomic
fundamentals. These fundamentals are money supply, output, prices
and interest rate. According to economic theories, these fundamental
variables determine nominal exchange rate. However, practically, no
conclusive evidences have been found about the role of fundamentals
in predicting future changes in exchange rates. Hence economic
profession has long believed that the naive random walk model can
well explain nominal exchange rate behavior. This shows that there are
no well defined economic forces which serve as determinants of
exchange rate. Meese & Rogoff (1983a) showed that flex-price version
of monetary model suggested by Frenkel-Bilson, the sticky price
version of monetary model pointed out by Dornbusch and the sticky
price asset approach by Hooper & Morton (1982) did not perform
better than a simple random walk model.
However, not all the results of the structural models of

exchange rate have been rejected by all the researchers. For instance,
Woo (1985) reformulated monetary model that used a function for
money demand based on a partial adjustments mechanism. He found
that the random walk model could perform better in case of out of
sample forecasting. A monetary approach of the exchange rate
determination between German Mark and the U.S. Dollar has also
been investigated by MacDonald and Taylor (1994) over a period of
1976 to 1990.The authors found that the dynamic error correction
mechanism outperformed a simple random walk model. It is valid for
every forecast horizon.
2.Significance of the Study

A number of important developments in the field of exchange
rate economics have taken place in the last decade or so. There occurred
significant contributions to theory as well as the empirical sides of
PAKISTAN BUSINESS REVIEW OCT2014 448

understanding of exchange rate dynamics. This was because of

enormous advances in econometric techniques. Increasing
accessibility of data of better quality also contributed a lot. These
developments stimulated a lot of empirical research on exchange rate
determination. Obviously, this situation has enhanced our knowledge
of exchange rate dynamics. But at the same time so many questions
and challenges remain unresolved. This situation demands further
research.
3.Literature Review
Since the early 1970s, the world economy has experienced a
rapid integration of international markets, especially an integration of
world financial markets. This shift is considered to be an outcome of
deliberate policy changes. These policy changes were the elimination
of control over capital flows and policy induced deregulation taking
place in domestic financial markets. (See e.g. Mussa & Goldstein
1993) Drastic decrease in the cost of international communication
and dramatic improvement thereof contributed a lot to the reduction
of natural barriers to international transactions in the financial markets.
Besides, policy induced reductions of the barriers to foreign direct
investments and merchandise trade and dramatic innovations in
information technology were also an important factor responsible for
global integration of financial markets. (Obstfeld, 1998 and Baldwin &
Martin 1999) The integration of world financial and goods markets
initiated a new era of research at theoretical and empirical front in
exchange rate economics. For a purpose of investigating monetary
model of exchange rates determination, Meese & Rogoff (1983), in
one of their most prominent papers, compared forecasting precision
of different structural models of exchange rate determination with
those of time series models of exchange rate. This study found that
random walk exchange rate models performed as good as any estimated
structural model. The structural models they estimated included the
flex price monetary model suggested by Frenkel and Bilson. They
also studied sticky price monetary model, popularly known as
Dornbusch-Frenkel model in economic literature. Another version of

the sticky price model they investigated in their study was Hooper
and Morton’s model of exchange rate that incorporated the current
account too. A possible reason for the poor performance of these
fundamental based monetary models may be a deviation or at least
partial deviation from uncovered interest parity condition.
Wolff (1987) employed time varying parameter techniques of

estimation, which were based on recursive application of the Kalman
filter, for improving forecasting ability of monetary models of exchange
rate. Estimation technique allowing time variant parameters
considerably enhanced models’ forecasting accuracy for the Dollar/
Pound, Dollar/Mark and Dollar/Yen exchange rates. Unlike earlier
findings of economic literature (Meese & Rogoff, 1983), forecasts of
Dollar/Mark exchange rate almost same as gottax by the simple random
walk forecasting technique. So many studies such as Wolff (1987),
Wolff (1988) and Schinasi & Swamy (1989) estimated quasi reduced
form relationship of monetary approach of exchange rate determination.
These studies used time variant coefficients to capture structural
differences of data generating processes of two countries. For instance,
structural differences in the function of money demand which is a
result of liberalization in financial sector and innovations captured by
using time varying coefficients, Wolff (1987) found that different
versions of monetary model with time variant coefficients could perform
better in forecasting exchange rate movements then forecasts made
by a naive random walk model. Schinasi and Swamy (1989) found
similar results in their study.
Evidence of validity of PPP for Pak-rupee / US-dollar exchange rate

was provided with by Khan and Qayyum (2007). They found this
evidence by employing Johansen (1988) and Johansen and Juselius
(1990) multivariate cointegration technique. The findings of Khan and
Qayyum (2007) bring an important implication for policy makers.

Lutfur Rahman & Jashim Uddin (2009) inquires the

relationship of stock prices and exchange rates in Bangladesh, India
and Pakistan. They used Johansen technique to test for the presence
of a cointegrating relationship. They found no cointegrating
relationship between stock prices and exchange rates. Authors also
used Granger causality test finding no way causal relationship these
variables in these countries.
Haffez-ur-Rahman (2010) analyzed the effect of foreign exchange

inflow on equilibrium real exchange rate of Pakistan for the period
1993 M7 to 2009 M3. He used behavioral equilibrium real exchange
rate model. This study finds that huge FDI inflows and workers’
remittances considerably increased equilibrium real exchange rate.
The study used Johansen’s (1988) cointegration technique for the
estimation of long-run relationship between LREER and fundamentals.
Unlike Engle & Granger (1987), the Johansen’s technique is better for
it uses Maximum likelihood method for providing test statistics
determining number of cointegrating vectors and coefficient estimates.
4. Methodology and Description of Data
Macroeconomists and experts in international finance have

long been utilizing the approach namely fundamental analysis for
understanding exchange rate dynamics. This approach is formulated
on the assumption of existence of some macroeconomic variables
(known as macroeconomic fundamentals) that play significant role to
determine exchange rates. These variables are real income, supply of
money, rate of interest, general price level changes and current account.
Success of this approach of exchange rate determination relies on
correct specification of the underlying macroeconomic variable
influencing exchange rate movement. To study the dynamics of
exchange rate, previous studies employed the fundamental analysis.
St = β0 + β1 ( mt – m t*) + β2 (yt – yt*) + β3 ( rt – r t*) + β4 ( πt – π t*) + ε t 1

An asterisk on a variable denotes that it is a variable for foreign country.

St denotes the log of spot nominal exchange rate (Pak Rupee / U.S. $),
mt shows the log of money supply, yt stands for the log of real income,
rt denotes nominal interest expressed in percentage (short-term) and
we use πt to denote expected inflation rate. Whereas εt shows the
random error term.
This equation shows a model which is called Frenkel-Bilson

model if it imposes the restrictions on coefficients as given below;
β4 = 0, β1 > 0, β2 < 0 , β3 > 0
In other words, Frenkel-Bilson model which is based on

monetary approach implies stronger domestic currency in case of
increase in relative real income, i.e. exchange rate decreases as a result
of increase in domestic economy’s real income relative to foreign
economy. Whereas increase in relative interest rate makes domestic
currency weaker i.e. nominal exchange rate increases. Both of these
implications of Frenkel-Bilson are contrary to those of static version
of Mundell-Fleming model. In case of Mundell-Fleming model, increase
in real income of domestic economy relative to foreign economy causes
worsening of balance of payments through enhancing domestic
economy’s imports. Whereas in Frenkel-Bilson model based on
monetary approach, rise in domestic economy’s real income enhances
real money which in turn makes domestic currency stronger, i.e. nominal
exchange rate increases. Similarly rise in differential nominal interest
rate causes capital inflows in Mundell-Fleming model which in turn
results in increasing demand for domestic currency in foreign exchange
market making domestic currency and resulting stronger domestic
currency. On the other hand, in Frenkel-Bilson model, rise in differential
nominal interest rate reduces demand for domestic currency making
domestic currency weaker.

It is worth mentioning here that Frenkel-Bilson model specifies

economic fundamentals, ft ,as;
ft = β1 ( mt – mt*) + β2 (yt – yt*) + β3 ( rt – rt*)................2
This is named as Frenkel-Bilson fundamental in the literature.
The second model which has been popularized in the exchange rate
economics is Dornbusch-Frankel model.
Economic fundamentals for Dornbuch-Frenkel model is as follows;
ft = β1 ( mt – mt*) + β2 (yt – yt*) + β3 ( πt – πt*)................3
This model imposes coefficient restrictions as;
Β1 > 0, β2 < 0, β3 < 0
These coefficient restrictions are in accordance with

economic literature. Increase in domestic money supply entails in
reducing relative purchasing power of domestic currency, and hence
depreciating domestic currency i.e. increasing nominal exchange rate.
Moreover, a higher output level of the domestic economy relative to
foreign economy enhances money demand, resulting in decline in
price level. This situation arises because of the people’s attempt to
reduce real money balances in which people reduce their expenditures.
This decline in domestic expenditures brings price level down.
5. Data and Methodology for Estimating Empirical Model
5.1 Data Used

This study uses quarterly data obtained from several
International Financial Statistics books for the period of Q1 1972 to
Q4 2010. The study is confined to Pak Rupee/ US $ exchange rate
only. The relative money supply is measured, for both countries,
using the broad monetary aggregate M2. The real income measure

used is industrial production. Treasury interest rate is used as a

measure of short term interest rate. This is the maximum rate of interest
on the Treasury bills whose maturity are at most twelve months or
less, and the one-year Treasury constant maturity rate for the US
economy are used.
5.2 Methodology Used
This study estimates Frenkel-Bilson type model, as given below, to

investigate the nature of nominal exchange rate dynamics.
st = β1 ( mt – mt*) + β2 (yt – yt*) + β3 ( rt – rt*) + εt ......................4
As we are using a different notation, such as le = st, difm2 = mt – m*t

difip = yt – y*t, difr = rt – r*t, we may write our model as follows.
let = β1 difm2 + β2 difip + β3 difr + εt...........................5
First of all, this study investigates stationarity or otherwise

of variables le, difm2, difip and difr. Yule (1926), Granger & Newbold
(1974), Phillips (1986) and Phillips & Durlauf (1986) studied the issue
of spurious regression. These studies reveal that in case variables are
non-stationary, steadily diverge from long run mean. This makes
correlations with the regression analysis unreliable. Hence this
situation leads to unbounded variance process. However use of
conventional procedure of OLS regression can be applied to time
series following only stationary process. Therefore, we first test for
stationarity. For this purpose, we use ADF test. We compare ADF
statistics we estimate with critical values, suggested by MacKinnon
(1991, 1996). Schwarz Information Criterion is selected as lags selection
criterion. Our ADF test uses up to a maximum of 8 lags. ‘*’ indicates
the rejection of a unit root.

ADF test may have low power as has been suggested by

DeJong et al. Therefore, we also use KPSS stationarity test suggested
by Kwiatkowski et al (1992).
This study uses the multivariate Johansen cointegration

technique. This technique was introduced by Engle & Granger (1987),
and was refined by Johansen (1988), Johansen & Juselius (1990) and
Stock & Watson (1988). Johansen technique makes simultaneous
estimation of long run and short run relationships possible. This is
done without differencing the data. We chose this procedure for
investigating the presence or otherwise of cointegration among our
variables. It has been demonstrated by Gonzalo (1994) that the
Johansen procedure is far superior to the other methods.
First of all a vector auto-regressive (VAR) model of kth order is

specified. This model consists of nx1 vector of variables Xt which are
I (d). VAR is as follows.
X t    A1 X t 1  A2 X t  2  . ..  Ak X t  k  1t ……………..6
Ai denotes the n  n matrix of parameters.  shows the matrix of deterministic terms.

 1t is the vector of residuals following an i.i.d. white noise process. Following re-
parameterization is given for error correction form.
X t  1 X t 1  2 X t  2  ...  k 1 X t  k 1   X t  k   2t ……………7
In the above equation
  I  A1  A2  ...  Ak and
i   I  A1  A2  ...  Ai i  1, 2, ...k 1
i denotes a matrix of first differenced coef ficients. These coefficients capture short run
dynamics. Whereas  represents a matrix of long-run impacts. It is worth noting that 
contains information of long run relations among variables. The rank ( r ) of  reveals
presence of cointegrating vectors. In case of full rank matrix, cointegration is not present.
In such case, equation 7 reduces to a VAR with all the variables in first differenced form.
However, if rank of  is r where 0 < r < n, it can be factored as    ' . Here  and
 ' are n x r matrices. In Johansen procedure we obtain two likelihood ratio (LR)
statistics. The statistics are the trace statistic and the max statistic. Using these statistics,
we test for presence or absence of cointegrating and number of cointegrating vectors.

6. Results and Empirical Findings
Stationarity Tests of the Variables
The appropriate model to be estimated depends on the nature

of the data. As this study employs time series data, it is imperative to
conduct tests for stationarity or otherwise for all the variables. If all of
them are I (0), simple OLS model can be estimated for obtaining the
relevant coefficients or a multivariate VAR can be estimated. If all of
them are I(1) i.e have one unit root, a test for cointegration is required.
If the model contains at least one cointegrating vector, VECM capturing
dynamic nature of model can also be estimated. That’s why this study
starts with testing for unit root using ADF test of variables included
in the model.
Table 1, shows results of the ADF test, for all the variables in level
form which this study uses.
Table 1
Results of ADF Unit Root Test at level
Variables Test Statistic with Test Statistic with Status
Intercept intercept and
Trend
Le ( log of Exchange rate) -1.1 03389 -3.313576 Non-Stationary
Lpm2 ( log of Money Stock -0.6 34356 -3.590537 Non-Stationary

(Pak))
Lpip( log of Industrial -0.6 59941 -1.991544 Non-Stationary
Production(Pak))
Pr( Interest Rate (Pak)) -2.0 44020 -2.143875 Non-Stationary
Lusip ( log of Industrial -5.4 82668 -0.595659 Non-Stationary

Production (US))
Lusm2( log of Mon ey Stock -2.0 22939 -2.249065 Non-Stationary
(US))
Usr ( Interest Rate (US)) -1.6 35641 -2.549857 Non-Stationary
Difip ( Differential of log IP -2.9 55166 -2.628029 Non-Stationary
)
difm2( Differen tial of log 0.15001 -2.824073 Non-Stationary
Money Stock)
Difr Differential Interest -1.4 07453 -2.273961 Non-Stationary
Rate
*CV of test statistic with intercept only at 5% is -2.87926, whereas

**CV of test statistic with intercept and trend at 5% is -3.438334
The ADF unit root results reveal that all the variables, except
US industrial production and differential industrial production, have
unit roots when only intercept is used in test statistic i.e they are
non- stationary at 5% . However, when both intercept and trend are
included in test statistic, all the variables including above mentioned
two, have unit roots at 5%. ADF has also been conducted for first
difference form. These results are shown in table 2.
Table 2
Results of ADF Test at 1st Difference Level
Variables Test Statistic Test Statistic Status

with Intercept with intercept
and Trend
Le ( log of Exchange rate) -12.53394 -12.51632 Stationary
lpm2 (log of Money Stock (Pak)) -0.634356 -3.590537 Stationary
Lpip( log of Industrial Production(Pak)) -5.001686 -5.242939 Stationary
Pr ( Interest Rate (Pak)) -10.64966 -10.62268 Stationary
Lusip ( log of Industrial Production (US)) -5.053695 -9.909862 Stationary
lusm2 ( log of Money Sto ck (US)) -2.954362 -3.384055 Stationary
Usr ( Interest Rate (US)) -8.885087 8.898048 Stationary
Difip (Differential of log IP) -5.001686 -5.242939 Stationary
d ifm2 (Differential of log Money Stock) -3.876855 -3.891695 Stationary
Difr (Differential In terest Rate) -10.08331 -10.05850 Stationary
*CV of test statistic with in tercept only at 5% is -2.87926, wh ereas
**CV of test statistic with intercept and trend at 5% is -3.438334
The results in Table 2 confirms that they are all I(1). This situation
allows us to proceed to test for cointegration of variables in our
model.
Cointegration Analysis
Hence Johansen (1988) and Johansen and Jusilius (1991)
approach is applied to estimate a vector autoregressive model, VAR,
having four dimentional vector, Xt = [ le, difip, difm2, difr ] which also
determines the cointegrating rank ρ. Besides, a dummy variable is
also included as exogenous variable, for capturing the shift in
exchange rate regime, in the estimation of VAR because Pakistan
introduced market based floating exchange rate on May 19th, 1999.
Based on Schwarz information criterion and Hannan-Quinn

information criterion for lag selection, this study selects 4 lags for
estimating VAR.
Table 3, given below, presents the results for this test.
Table 3
Cointegration Rank Test (Trace)
Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Trace)
Hypothesized Trace 0.05

No. of CE (s) Eigen value Statistic Critical Value Prob.**
None * 0.258079 75.03559 47.85613 0.0000

At most 1 0.117303 28.46756 29.79707 0.0706
At most 2 0.055031 9.002962 15.49471 0.3651
At most 3 0.001107 0.172836 3.841466 0.6776
Trace test indicates 1 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level
Table 4
Cointegration Rank Test (Maximum Eigenvalue)
Unrestricted Cointegration Ran k Test (Maximum Eigen value)
Hyp oth esized Max-Eigen 0.05

No. of CE(s) Eigenvalu e Statistic Critical Value Prob.**
Non e * 0.258079 46.5680 3 27.58434 0.0001

At most 1 0.117303 19.4645 9 21.13162 0.0842
At most 2 0.055031 8.83012 6 14.26460 0.3006
At most 3 0.001107 0.17283 6 3.8 41466 0.6776
Max-eig envalue test indicates 1 cointegrating eqn (s) at the 0.05 level

The estimated cointegrating equation has been given below as

equation 8 values in parentheses are the standard errors of the
estimated coefficients.
le = 0.429931 difm2 + 0.365638 difip + 0.058896 difr 8
(0.06445) (0.16840) (0.00844)
All coefficients in this cointegrating equation are significant.

The sign of coefficient of differential money stock comes out to be
positive i.e. β1 > 0. This means that increase in differential money
supply is associated with weaker domestic currency i.e. exchange
rate increases as a result of increased money supply. This situation is
strictly in accordance to predictions of Frenkel-Bislon model and as
we hypnotized. Whereas the coefficient of differential industrial
production (a proxy for the differential real income) also came out to
be positive; this is contrary to prediction of our model. However this
is in conformity with the predictions of Mudell-Fleming and
Dornbusch-Frenkel models. The positive coefficient of differential
industrial production shows that increase in differential industrial
production ( used as the proxy for real income ) causes exchange rate
to increase i.e domestic currency (Pak Rupee in our case) depreciates.
The numerical values of the coefficients in above equation indicate
that 1% increase in differential money stock causes Pak Rupee to
depreciate by approximately 0.43% in the long run i.e elasticity of
exchange rate with respect to differential money supply is 0.43.
Similarly, 1% increase in differential industrial production results in
approximately 0.36% decrease in value of domestic currency in the
long run. So exchange rate elasticity with respect to differential income
is 0.36.
The sign of differential interest is also contrary to our

hypothesis. However it is what has been envisaged by Mundel-
Fleming and Dornbusch models. Possible explanation for this
contradiction may be that monetary approach assumes that

purchasing power parity holds continuously i.e. PPP not only holds
in long run but holds in short run too. This is in stark contrast to
empirical findings.
It is worth noting here that Mundell-Fleming model predicts

a positive sign of differential interest rate. Reason is that, in Mundell-
Fleming model, increase in domestic interest rate, ceteris Paribus,
enhances capital inflows which make domestic currency stronger i.e
exchange rate declines.
Further insight in this regard is provided by uncovered interest parity
condition given below.
Δste = it – it*
This UIP condition indicates that due to increase in domestic

interest rate, domestic currency is expected to depreciate in the long
run.
Vector Error Correction Model
After conducting cointegration test and finding only one

cointergrating vector, we estimated a VECM model. The adjustment
coefficients found in the estimation of VECM are given below in Table
5
Table 5
VECM (1) Coefficients
Variables Coefficients Standard Error t-Values

d( le ) -0.151883 (0.04056) [-3.74437]
d ( difm2) 0.014116 (0.01515) [ 0.93197]
d ( difip ) 0.155990 (0.03024) [ 5.15809]
d (difr ) 0.960125 (0.55891) [ 1.71787]

ECM coefficients given in Table 5 indicate which of the

variables adjust to restore equilibrium i.e which of the variables are
equilibrating variables. If any shock, somehow, disturbs the long run
equilibrium, some or all of the variables adjust to restore the
equilibrium. This long run equilibrium of our system has been given
in equation 8 and reproduced as follows.
le = 0.429931 difm2 + 0.365638 difip + 0.058896 difr
Negative value of the coefficient d(le) i.e. first difference of

log of exchange rate, shows that if le > 0.429931 difm2 + 0.365638 difip
+ 0.058896 difr, exchange rate declines and/or differential money
stock, differential industrial production and differential interest rate
increases to restore long run equilibrium. Values of adjustment
coefficients in Table 5 reveal that if the system deviates from long run
equilibrium, exchange rate declines to restore equilibrium and 15.2%
of the discrepancy is adjusted for in each quarter. This adjustment is
not considerably rapid but is statistically significant. Similarly,
differential money stock increases to accounts for only 1.4% of the
discrepancy which is not only too slow adjustment but statistically
insignificant too. However, differential industrial production increases
to restore long run equilibrium and meets 15.6% of the discrepancy in
each quarter which in also statistically significant. The role of
differential interest rate is to increase rapidly to adjust toward
equilibrium and this accounts for 96% of the discrepancy in each
quarter, but is does not seem to be statistically significant.
7. Summary, Conclusion and policy Implications
As all the variables involved are integrated of order one, we

tested for cointegration using Johansen cointegration technique. The
study finds one cointegrating vector. Hence, a vector error correction
model is estimated. All the coefficients in cointegrating equation are
significant. The coefficient of differential money supply comes out to
be positive i.e. increase differential money supply entails in making

domestic currency weaker. This is in conformity in Frenkel-Bilson

monetary model. However, the coefficient of differential industrial
production (a proxy for the differential real income) also came out to
be positive, which is contrary to prediction of our model. But this is in
conformity with the predictions of Mudell-Fleming and Dornbusch-
Frenkel models. Similarly, the sign of estimated coefficient of differential
interest is also contrary to our hypothesis. However it is what has
been envisaged by Mundell-Fleming and Dornbusch models. Possible
explanation for this contradiction may be that monetary approach
assumes that purchasing power parity holds continuously i.e. PPP
not only holds in long run but holds in short run too. This is in stark
contrast to empirical findings. VECM reveals that if system deviates
from long run equilibrium, exchange rate declines to restore equilibrium
and 15.2% of discrepancy is adjusted for in each quarter. Though, this
is not considerably rapid, but is statistically significant. Similarly, role
of differential industrial production in adjustment to equilibrium is
statistically significant. However, the role of differential money stock
and differential interest rate is statistically insignificant.
In the global scenario of the present era, foreign exchange

policy is deemed to be integral part of the monetary policy. Almost
every central bank all over the globe, particularly in developing
countries, has shown myriad of concern about the fluctuations in
exchange rate and promptly responds to these fluctuations in order to
minimize the negative consequences on the performance of the
economy. So many studies have established a strong relation between
exchange rate fluctuations and the growth rate of the economy. Thus
to be familiar with what causes to determine the exchange rate in the
short run and what are the determinants of exchange rate in the long
run is essential for policy makers to ensure exchange rate stability and
higher growth rate of the economy. One of the basic objectives of
monetary authorities is to maintain price stability i.e. to keep inflation
at low level. Many empirical as well as theoretical studies reveal that
depreciating currency entails in higher inflation level. If central bank
is acquainted of role of macroeconomic fundamental in determining

exchange rate, it can intervene through its control over fundamentals,

especially, through influencing money supply and interest rate to
support the rapidly depreciating domestic currency so that inflation
can be controlled and price stability may be ensured. As the findings
of this study reveal also the role of real income in determining the
exchange rate i.e. in determining the value of domestic currency, it
provide policy guidance to the policy makers in formulating fiscal
policy too. Thus it may be concluded that fiscal policy can also be
employed to influence the exchange rate via real income channel.

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Research
Research Capital Structure and Profitability: . . .
CAPITAL STRUCTURE AND

PROFITABILITY: A COMPARATIVE
STUDY OF CEMENT AND
AUTO SECTORS OF PAKISTAN
Shahzad Anwar1 & Usman Ali2

Abstract
The basic drive of this research was to investigate the
nexus between performance and capital structure of the businesses
in two different industries in Pakistan i.e. Cement and Auto sector.
The data was collected from financial statement of the companies
registered at Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) from year 2005 to
2011. Fixed effect model (Panel Regression)was used for automobile
sector and Random effect model was used for cement sector as the
data turns out to be panel data. After running regression we found
long term debts to asset (LTDTA) have affirmative relationship with
profitability in both of the sectors. This relation is aligned with the
previous researches as well. Short term debts to asset (STDTA)
have positive relation in cement sector while having negative
relationship in automobile sector. Profitability of Automobile
companies are more affected by availing long term debts as
compared to cement sector therefore cement sector has taken more
long term debts as it has low effect on profitability as compared to
automobile sector. The results of the research are contradictory to
Modigliani and Miller (1963) which say that an increase in the
debt will increase the value of the firm.
Keywords: Capital Structure, Profitability, LTDTA & STDTA

JEL Classification: G310
1 & 2- Dept of Managemnt Sciences, Qurtuba University, Peshawar,

Pa kistan

Capital Structure and Profitability: . . . Research
Introduction
A business organization is called as business organization

because of its economic objectives i.e. Profits. Different techniques
are followed by business organization for profit maximization working
under the concept of efficiency. Among them an optimal mix of
financing (capital structure) is dominant. Capital structure means a
combination of various fund sources for the working capital and long
investments. Availability of mix of debt and equity sources instruments
and increased opportunities but had also increased complexities too.
Financing resources are different based on risk related to each source
of fund according to the relationship of risk and return. The financial
manager struggles to reach to such type of mix having low cost and
increases the wealth of the shareholders, and these are the key
objectives of the firm. In overall the firm tries to arrange such
combination that gives it more fruits. According to financial theory
the capital structure can affect cost of debt and equity as a result
financial performance too. Cost of debt and equity is a standard that
has been used for capital budgeting decision consequently optimal
level of debts and equity is necessary to perform well.
Some of the theories also tell us about the relationship of

capital structure with profitability i.e. the signaling theory, agency
theory, information asymmetry theory, trade off theory and Pecking
order theory. Beside these two professionals Modigliani and Miller
studied capital structure theory thoroughly in 1950s. They came up
with capital structure irrelevance proposition from the analysis. They
assumed that in perfect market if the company having any mix of debt
and equity, it doesn’t matter because the value of the firm is determined
through the risk of its underlying assets and its earning. It is also
theorized that its market value is liberated by any way it choose to
finance its investment or distribute dividends Modigliani &
Miller(1950).

Agency theory is another important theory which tackle

with two concepts, agency costs and cost of financial distress; further
this theory tells us about the debts and equity mix that how much
portion is financed through debts and how much through equity for
balancing the cost of debts against its benefit. The theory also states
that debt financing has some advantages for the company like tax
benefits. The important point which is discussed in the previous
theory of capital structure is that “when WACC is minimized, the
market value of assets is maximized” .A. Kraus and R.H. Litzenberger,
(1973).
The asymmetric information theory states that the

management hasmoreinformation ascompared to theinvestors. The
management will attempt to send creativeinformation totheir investors
or themarket having less information to evaluatefirms’ value.
A signaling theory postulates that the executives have some

tool by which they can send information to the market to clarify the
differences between them and the weaker firm. The best option among
them is the use of debts. It shows that the future performance of the
company will be good because the managers, having better
expectations, will use their best efforts. In short it sends good news
and equally bad news about the firm’s performance.
According to Pecking order theory, company should prefer

internal source of financing first and if it’s inner source are not enough
to meet its requirement i.e. in achieving the profitable projects than
think about the external source of financing. According to this theory
the company wants internal financing first than second priority should
be debt and third equity financing. This theory was also admired by
Myers (1984) when he suggested that equity should be the last option
for the managers, because the shareholders of the company will think
that their part of ownership is reduced (Kraus and R.H. Litzenberger
1973). While it was shown that under capital market is imperfect

where taxes are taken on interest expense the value of the firm will
increase with increase in the leverage (Modigliani and Miller 1963).
Research Objective
1. To find out the nexus between the capital structure and

performance in Pakistani environment.
2. To study and find variation of results between two sectors
i.e. Cement & auto sector
3. To help out the manager for the selection of the capital
structure for their companies.
4. To identify combination of capital structure that would be
best her both of the sectors.
5. To find out increase and decrease in Long term and short
term debt in relationship with asset and equity of the
companies and its overall effect on profitability of the firms.
Literature Review
Fu (1997) conducted a study to uncover the association

between capital structure and profitability. He took 267 companies
registered on the Kala Lumpur Stock Exchange as sample during the
period 1985 to 1994. The variables he used in his research comprises
of two main sets of variables capital structure i.e. Debt to Equity
Ratio, Financial Leverage Ratio, Funded Capital Ratio, Funded Debt
Ratio, Funded Asset Ratio; and for Profitability i.e. Return on Equity
(ROE), Earning per Share, Return on Asset, Profit Before Interest and
Taxes. The relationship among the variable was examined by applying
the time-series and cross-sectional models. For empirical evidence,
Correlation, mean and bar chart were used; they found that performance
hadpointedly related to capital structure. Profitability was inversely
in relation with the amount of liability used by the firms in their mixture
of debt and equity.
Marcos and Lara (2003) conducted an inspection about the

relationship of capital structure with profitability, the study was
conducted by taking 70 Brazilian companies as sample and analyzed
the past data from 1995 to 2001,Equity investment is taken as

dependent variables while Short term debts and long term debts is
taken as independent variables. The result shows that the cash
inflows over the time are positively correlated with short-term debt
and equity, and are inversely correlated to long-term debt. Ordinary
Least Square (OLS) method was used in assessing the relationship
between return of equity (ROE) with long term and short term debts.
It means long term debts are not beneficial for the company as the
company has to pay interest and will shrink its profitability.
A similar investigation was done by Sohail Amjed (2007) on

100 textile firms listed in KSE during the timeframe 1999 to 2004. The
result shown affirmative relationship existed concerning short term
debt and earning capacity of the firm, while statistically negative
relationship amid long term debt and profitability. While relationship
amid short term debts and profitability is in difference. As the paper
shows that overall total debts has no considerable relationship with
financial performance because of hereditary difference in
characteristics of long term and short term debts.
Onaolapo, Kajola, Sunday (2010) examined Capital Structure

and Firm Performance of thirty non- financial firms registered in
Nigerian Stock Exchange from 2001 to 2007. Result depicts that a
company’s capital structure proxy by Debt Ratio has considerably
negative effect on the firm’s financial performance, by taking
financial performance as Return on Asset and Return on Equity.
These findings are steady with the previous researches support
Agency cost theory as well.
Pratheepkanth (2011) also investigated the same relationship

in companies listed on Colombo Stock Exchange Sri Lanka. Data was
taken from the period 2005 to 2009. He found a negative relationship
between the firms performance and capital structure by -0.114. Co-
efficient of value comes out to be 0.013. F value and t values were
0.366 and -0.605 respectively. This shows that the insignificant level

of relationship for the Companies operating in Sri Lanka. Hence

companies depend on the debt as compare to equity. Therefore, they
have to pay more interest expenses.
Prashant, Aman, Dinesh (2012) conducted the same study

an found significant influence of capital structure on performance
separately belonged to measures of adjusted value, book value and
market value. An optimal capital structure is the one which will reduce
the cost of capital and maximize shareholder wealth. The study also
highlighted the scope of book value to market value as proxy of capital
structure. Chou Lee (2010) examined the same effects and found that
there is a strong relation between return on assets and the debt to
assets ratio. According to the corporate finance, capital structure is a
balance between the benefits and cost of debt. In the end it was
concluded that large firms are attaining higher performance than
medium size firms under the equal level of debt ratio.
Khan (2012) also tested relationship of capital structure and

performance in Pakistani environment by taking sample of 36
engineering firms listed in KSE during 2003 to 2009.He used three
different models by using three depended variables i.e. Return on
Assets, Return on Equity & Gross Profit Margin, while Short period
debts to total Assets, Long period Debts to Total Asset and Total
Debts to Total Assets is taken as independent variables. His results
determined that the association between financial leverage &
companies performance is negative but insignificant with respect to
ROE. The results show that financial leverage measured STDTA, TDTA
has an expressively negative relationship with the company’s
performance.
Ferati (2012) conducted a study on capital structure and

profitability: (the Macedonian case) of 150 SME operating in the Pollog
region during the period of 2004 to 2009. His results suggested that
there is a positive correlation between short term debts and negative
correlation between long term debts. Akhtar, Husnain, Ahsan (2012)

examined the determinants of capital structure and conducted their

research in Pakistani Textile sector specially spinning units. After
analyzing 30 firms listed in KSE during the period of 2004 to 2009. The
result revealed that the spinning sector companies are small in size
and capitalization so these companies prefer internal financing as
Compare to external financing.
Another research conducted by Abbasali, Esfandiar

Malekian, Emamgholipour, Vida, Bagheri(2012) by selecting 400 firm
12 different sectors in Tehran Stock Exchange during the period 2006
to 2010 .They concluded that debt ratio has negative relationship
with firm profitability and a significant positive association between
asset turnover, firm size, asset tangibility ratio and growth
opportunities with FP measures. Results also showed that by reducing
Debt Ratio (DR), management can improve the company’s profitability
and can also increase shareholder wealth.
Abu-Rub (2012) analyzed the ratio of debt and equity along

with Firm Performance of 28 companies registered in the Palestinian
Stock Exchange (PSE) from 2006 to 2010 .The study used five different
proxies that includes earning per share, return on equity, market value
of equity to book value of equity, return on assets, and Tobin’s Q as
controlled variable and four explanatory variables that were include
in analysis were short-term debts, total debts to total assets, long-
term debts, and total debts to total equity. The author found that
company’s capital structure had affirmative impact on the company’s
performance measures& statistically significant with total debts to
total Assets except MBVR was substantial impact on TDTA & with
SDTA. The findings also suggested determining the impact of the
numerous debts on the firm profitability.
Hypothesis
Ho = Long period Debt to Total Asset has no effect on profitability
H1 = Long period Debt to Total Asset has a significant effect on
profitability.

Ho = Short period Debt to Total Asset hasno effect on profitability.

H1 = Short period Debt to Total Asset has a significant effect on
profitability.
H0 = Funded Capital ratio has no effect on profitability.
H1 = Funded Capital has a significant effect on profitability.
H0 = Funds Debt ratio has no effect on profitability.
H1 = Funds Debt ratio has a significant effect on profitability.
H0 = Current Debt ratio has no effect on profitability.
H1 = Current Debt ratio has a significant effect on profitability.
H0 = Funded Asset ratio has no effect on profitability.
H1 = Funded Asset ratio has a substantial effect on profitability.
Research Methodology
This study was carried out in two sectors of Karachi Stock
exchange KSE 100 Index i.e. Cement and Automobile sector. 36 cement
and automobile companies listed in KSE. Out of which we have selected
28 companies using random sampling technique, among these 28
companies 12 companies were from automobile sector and 16 were
from cement sector for the study.
The data for the study was obtained from Annual reports i.e.
Financial statements analysis of firms listed at KSE extracted from
State Bank of Pakistan, which enfold the balance sheets data of all
listed companies of KSE for 2005 to 2011 and some of the annual
reports we obtained for the companies websites.
1. Variables
Dependent Variable
i. Return on Assets: This ratio shows that how efficiently the
firm has utilized their assets i.e. current assets and fixed assets.
The higher the value the better.ROA was also considered as
dependent variable by Majumdar and Chhibber (1999) and Abor
(2005).
Return on Asset (ROA) =

 Independent Variables
i. Sale Growth:Means the total increase in the sales of the

company over a specific period.The higher value will show the
efficiency of the main departments and specially marketing of
the company.SohailAmjid (2007)
Sales Growth =
ii. Short Term Debt Ratio:
This ratio shows that how much of total assets have been financed
through short term loan. Taking loan is not a big concern but its
utilization. Chin Ai Fu (1997), Sohail Amjid (2007) and Rametulla
Ferati (2010) consider STDTA as independent variable in their
respective researches
STDTA =
iii. Long Term Debt Ratio: This ratio shows that how much of
total assets have been financed through long term debt. The
higher value may show the dependency of the firm on debt,
which may be a negative sign for the investors. Because they
might be thinking that the firm may go bankrupt. Rametulla Ferati
(2010).
LTDTA =
iv. Funded Capital Ratio: The Funded Capital Ratio is computed

by dividing the sum of Long-Term (funded) Debt and
Stockholders’ Equity by Fixed Assets. FCR shows the degree to
which fixed assets of the firm are financed by long-term debts
and equity. This ratio was considered by Chin Ai Fu (1997) in his
research as proxy for capital structure.
FCR =

v. Funded Debt Ratio: All those debts that company has taken
and they will mature after one accounting period or after one year
qualifies for the funded debt ratio such as bonds, long-term notes
payables or debentures. If the ratio is above 1 for FDR then it
shows higher long-term debt involvement as compared to equity
contribution. Chudson (1945),Mohamad Khan (1994) and Chin Ai
Fu (1997)
FDR =
vi. Current Debt Ratio: This ratio show that how much the
owners have contributed to pay its short term liability. Petty,
Keown, Scott and Martin (1993), Chin Ai Fu (1997)
CDR =
vii. Funded Assets Ratio: A higher ratio will show that the firm
has higher amount of assets to pay its short term liability and a
lower ratio will disappoint short period creditors from giving more
short period debt. Siegel, Shim and Hartman (1992), Mohamad
Khan (1994) and Chin Ai Fu (1997).
FAR =
Estimation of Regression Model

A multiple regression model was used in order investigate the
relationship between the variables that are already been explained
above.
= + ( )+ ( )+ ( )+ ( )+ ( )+ ( )
+ ( )+µ

Where,
ROA is the Return on Asset
STDTA is Short Term Debt to Asset Ratio
LTDTA is Long Term Debt to Asset Ratio
FCR is Funded Capital Ratio
FDR is Funded Debt Ratio
CDR is Current Debt Ratio
FAR is Funded Asset Ratio
SALES GROWTH is the persistent increase in total Sales
Fixed Effect model (Panel regression) analysis was used with

help of the equation given above. In the above equation the controlled
variable is ROA representing profitability. “ ” is the constant term
which illustrates that if all the explanatory variables have zero effect
on controlled variable then still there will be “%” change in the
controlled variable because of constant.”” is the error term which is
representing the effect of all the explanatory variables that are not
included in research paper. Sign with explanatory variables weather
its positive or negative shows impact on the controlled variable.
All of the stated tests that are used were applied with the help of
STATS 11.
Regression Estimation of Automobile Sector

The regression equation is attained after the analyses of the data:
= + ( )+ ( )+ ( )+ ( )+ ( )+ ( )
+ ( )+µ
= + (− . )( )− . ( )− . ( )− . ( )+ . ( )−
. ( )− . ( )+ µ

1. Hausman Test
Table
1.1: Coefficient
Fixed Random Differen ce
STDT A 0.217 -0.198 -0.020
LTDT A 0.803 0.746 0.057
FCR -0.489 -0.012 -0.037
FDR -0.125 -0.135 0.010
CDR 0.022 0.024 -0.002
FAR -0.113 -0.063 -0.050
Sales Growth -0.001 -0.007 0.006
Test: H0 : Difference in coefficients not systematic
Chi2 = 174.39
Prob> Chi2 = 0.000
2.Heteroscedasticity Test
Table 1.2: hettest
Breusch –Pagan / Cook – Weisberg test for heteroskedast
Ho : Constant variance
Variables : fitted values of roa
Chi2 (1) = 0.33
Prob>Chi2 = 0.566

3.Variance Inflating factor Test
Table
1.3: VIF
Variable VIF 1/VIF
stdta 9.52 0.11
Ltdta 8.81 0.11
Fdr 4.96 0.20
Cdr 4.34 0.23
Far 2.14 0.47
Fcr 1.39 0.72
sales growth 1.14 0.88
Mean VIF 4.61
4. Model Summary Table
Table 1.4:
Model Summary
Fixed Effect Regression R-sq (With in) R-sq (Between ) R-sq (Overall)
0.813 .0586 .194a
a. Predictors: (Constant), STDTA, LTDTA. FCR, FDR, CDR, FAR and Sales Growth

5. Regression Table
Table 1.5:
Coefficients
Unstandardized Coefficients
Model B Std. Error T P>¦ t ¦
1 (Constant) 0.29 2 0.513 5.69 0.000
STDTA -0.217 0.065 -3.33 0.001
LTDTA -0.803 0.116 6.93 0.000
FCR -0.489 0.011 -4.17 0.000
FDR -0.125 0.057 -2.19 0.032
CDR 0.02 2 0.010 2.16 0.034
FAR -0.113 0.218 -5.12 0.000
Sales Growth -0.001 0.009 -0.13 0.899
a. Dependent Variable: ROA
6. Correlation Table
Table 1.6:
Correlation
STDTA LTDTA FCR FDR CDR FAR Sales Growth
STDTA 1.00
LTDTA 0.86 1.00
FCR -0.21 -0.13 1.00
FDR 0.02 0.17 -0.30 1.00
CDR 0.10 -0.04 -0.20 0.69 1.00
FAR -0.29 0.06 -0.01 0.23 -0.19 1.00
Sales Growth 0.01 0.13 0.02 0.19 0.05 0.02 1.00

With the help of Hausman test we found that Prob>chi2 is

0.000 which shows that fixed effect model should be used which will
gives as more accurate results. In order to check out
heteroscedasticity Breusch - Pagan test was conducted in the
particular regression model. Results of Breusch - Pagantest clearly
accept the null hypothesis as the value of prob is 0.566. which show
that there is constant variance in the residual and no sign of
heteroscedasticity. Variance inflating factor test was also conducted
in order to identify any correlation among the independent variables.
STDTA and LTDTA in automobile sector are correlated but not
strongly correlated so that it may cause multicollinearity. Remaining
of the variable shows a low correlation with one another.
The regression results show that if the effect of all the

explanatory variables is equal to zero still there is an increase of .292
units on the profitability. The table further express that there is a
positive association between CDR and profitability as one unit change
in CDR will increase profitability by0.222 units. The result further
shows that STDTA, LTDTA, FCR, FDR, FAR & SALES GROWTH of
the firm adversely affects the profitability as each unit change in size
of firm reduces profitability by-0.217,0.803, -0.489, -0.125, -0.113& -
0.001respectively.
The overall model is highly significant as value of F is

40.30.More over the ANOVA table shows that STDTA, LTDTA, FCR,
FDR, CDR & FAR significantly effects dependent variables because
there values are lesser then 0.05 i.e. 0.001, 0.000, 0.032, 0.034 &0.000
respectively. While Sales Growthis having insignificant relationship
with Profitability as the p value is 0.889. The value of R2 is 0.8128
which means that it’s a good fit. The R2 value tells that 81.28 percent
variations in the controlled variable that is profitability are brought
by the explanatory variables already explained.
The above outcomes show an overall negative results

impact of debts which supports the agency cost theory. The same

results were derived by Mathur and Mathur (2000), Ismail (2006),

Margaritis and Psillaki (2006), Zeitun and Tian (2007) and Akintoye
(2008).
In the correlation table, short term debt to total asset (STDTA)

is highly positive correlated with long-term debt to total asset (LTDTA)
by amount of 0.86. This shows that these variables may show
significant relation with dependent variable. Similarly funded capital
ratio is also positively correlated to Current debt ratio by 0.69.
Regression Estimation of Cement Sector
The model use in finding the relationship between the above

mentioned dependent and independent variables is as follows.
=
( )+ ( )+ ( )+ ( )+ ( )+ ( )+ ( )+ µ
= 0.334 + ( . )( )− . ( )+ . ( )+ . ( )− . ( )
+ . ( )− . ( )+ µ
1. Hausman Test
Fix ed Random Differenc e
.049
STD TA .392 .343
.003
LT DT A .138 -.142
.010
F CR .227 .216
F DR .008
.011 .004
CD R -.015 -.008 -.007
-.002
FAR .024 .026
Sales Growth -.018

.000 .018
T es t: H0 : D ifference in c oefficients not sy stem atic
Chi2 = 6.83
Prob > C hi2 = 0.4 4

2. Heteroscedasticity Test
Ta ble 2.2: hettest
Breusch – Pagan / Cook – Weisberg test for heteroskedast
Ho : Constan t variance
Variables : fitted values of roa
Chi2 (1) = 0.11
Prob > Chi2 = 0.2663
3. Variance Inflating factor Test

Table 2.3: VIF
Variable VIF 1/VIF
Fdr 4.6 7 0.21
Stdta 3.6 8 0.27
cdr 3.6 1 0.28
Far 3.0 2 0.33
Ltdta 2.7 9 0.35
Fcr 1.4 9 0.67
sales growth 1.3 9 0.72
Mean VIF 2.9 5
4. Model Summary Table

Table 2.4:
Model Summary
Random Effect R-sq (Within) R-sq (Bet ween) R-sq (Overall) F Prob>F
Regression
.527 .363 .472 108.2 .000
a. Predictors: (Constant), STDTA, LTDTA. FCR, FDR, CDR, FAR and Sales Growth

5. Regression Table
Table 2.5:
Coefficients
Unstandardized Coefficients
Model B Std. Error T P>¦ t ¦
1 (Constant) -0.432 0.116 -3.71 0.000
STDTA 0.34 3 0.787 4.37 0.000
LTDTA -0.142 0.304 -4.67 0.000
FCR 0.21 6 0.024 8.93 0.000
FDR 0.00 4 0.112 0.38 0.702
CDR -0.008 0.013 -0.60 0.551
FAR 0.02 6 0.006 4.31 0.000
Sales Growth 0.01 8 0.015 1.18 0.240
a. Dependen t Variable: ROA
6. Correlation Table
Table 2.6:
Correlation
STDT A LTDTA FCR FDR CDR FAR Sales Growth
STDTA 1.00
LTDT A 0.86 1 .00
FCR -0.21 -0.13 1.00
FDR 0.02 0 .17 -0.30 1.00
CDR 0.10 -0.04 -0.20 0.68 1.00
FAR -0.29 0 .06 -0.01 0.23 -0.1 9 1.00
Sales Growth 0.01 0 .13 0.02 0.19 0.05 0.02 1.00

The Hausman test in the cement sector suggest Random

effect model for the data the value ofProb>chi2 is 0.4464.For
identification of heteroscedasticity Breusch - Pagan test was used in
the regression model. Results of Breusch - Pagan test accept the null
hypothesis in cement sector as well as prob value is greater is 0.05. It
shows that there is constant variance in the residual and no sign of
heteroscedasticity. Variance inflating factor test was also conducted
in order to identify any correlation among the independent variables.
No sign of multi collinearity was founds as all the values are less than
10.
The regression results show that if the effect of all the
explanatory variables is equal to zero still there is an increase of -
0.432 due to . This table also depicts that there is an affirmative
relation between STDTA, FCR, FDR, FAR, SALES GROWTH with
profitability as one unit change in these explanatory variables will
bring rise in the profitability
by respectively. The result
further show that LTDTA and CDR of the firm adversely affect the
profitability as each unit change in size of firm shrinks profitability by
respectively. The overall model is also significant
as F test value is 14.67, which is larger than 4 therefore we can conclude
that the model used as whole is significant.
More over result shows that STDTA, LTDTA, FCR & FAR
are significant variables because there value is lesser then 0.05. Which
are 0.000, 0.000, 0.000 & 0.000 respectively. While FDR, CDR & SALES
GROWTH is insignificant the value is 0.702, 0.551 & 0.240.R2in the
summary table displays value of 0.4724, which means that it’s a good
fit. Thus the value of R2 represents that 47.24 percent variation in the
profitability are carried by the explanatory variables explained in this
research paper.
Short Term Debt to Asset (STDTA) and Long Term Debt to

Total Asset(LTDTA)have shown a weak relationship in cement sector

which is consistence with the research study of Zeitun andTian (2007)

and Ebaid (2009). While Long Term Debt to Total Asset(LTDTA) has
a negative effect with performance of the company, Amidu (2007) has
same results for the relationship of leverage and profitability.
In this correlation table funded debt ratio FDR is high

positively correlated with current debt ratio CDR by amount of 0.6833.
Similarly short term debt to total assets STDTA is also negatively
correlated to funded asset ratio FAR by 0.6899, and funded asset ratio
FAR is also negatively correlated with sales growth.
Conclusion
This research study was conducted to determine the effect

of debt and equity structure on profitability of 28 companies of
Automobile sector & cement sector registered in the KSE from the
period of 2005-2011. The analyses were performed based on panel
data by use of two models that is fixed effect & random effect model.
The data analysis was done to test the assumption that there is a
positive or negative association between the variables. So for this
purpose Return on Assets (ROA) was consider as controlled variable
and long term debts to total assets (LTDTA), Funded capital ratio
(FCR), Funded debt ratio (FDR), Current debt ratio (CDR), Funded
asset ratio (FAR) and Sales Growth is independent variable.
The result shows that explanatory variables have both a positive

and negative effect of the dependent variables.In Automobile sector
as all the explanatory variables except CDR has a negative impact on
the controlled variable i.e.profitability, while in cement sector LTDTA,
CDR have negative effect on the profitability while STDTA, FCR,
FDR, FAR and SALES GROWTH having positive effect on the
profitability.
Further study should be done in the Pakistan’s market on the other

sectors to determine the effect of different factors on profitability.

Recommendation
As we already know that financial decision is considered to

be the most difficult decision and specially capital structure. Present
research paper tried to work out evaluating the relationship of capital
structure with profitability.
Theoretical models does not indicates best possible mixture

of capital structure that would be ideal for the companies in cement
and auto sector, so that they can yield maximumprofit out of it. Still on
the basis on results it is recommended that companies must have
short term debts and internal debt as compare to long term debt. The
same thing was demonstrated by Modigliani and Miller (1958 and
1963).
Most of the companies in both of the sectors have lower

debt as compare to other developed countries such as Japan, United
Kingdom, United States and Germany. Which shows that Pakistani
companies are not using that high level of debts. Reasons might be
high interest rates being offered by the banks, Political instability,
terrorism and uncertain atmosphere. So we may say that companies
in Pakistan are not opting for high level of debts. Because of the same
reason some of the results are contradictory to previous studies that
are mentioned in conclusion section.

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Research
Research Interest Rate and Inflation . . .
INTEREST RATE AND INFLATION:

A CASE STUDY OF PAKISTAN
Abu Bakar Ghaffari1, Atiq-ur-Rehman2 & Malik Muhammad3
Abstract
There are various conflicting theories explaining the

relationship between interest rate and inflation. Some of these
theories suggest that an increase in interest rate will reduce the
inflation, whereas some theories suggest that raising interest rates
will cause an increase in inflation. The most popular theory is the
so called demand side of the Monetary Transmission Mechanism,
which states that an increase in interest rate would reduce the
money supply, aggregate demand and hence the inflation. On the
other hand, the cost channel states that raising interest rates will
increase the cost of production; therefore the inflation will rise. It is
also possible that the downward push in prices due to decrease in
aggregate demand is offset by an upward push due to increased
cost of production, and the net effect becomes insignificant. The
appropriate policy for controlling inflation would depend on the
relative importance of demand and cost side of the monetary
transmission mechanism. This study takes the help of historical
data to explore the nature of the relationship between these two
variables. We used different measures of inflation and interest rate,
to find out the relation robust to the difference in the definitions of
these variables. We found in this study that the net effect of interest
on inflation is insignificant and no causality was observed between
two variables for all definitions of interest rate and inflation. The
evidence suggests that the interest based policy is not successful to
monitor inflation.
Keywords: Interest Rate, Inflation, Monetary Transmission

Mechanism, Cost Channel
1- International Institute of Islamic Economics, Interna tional Islamic
University, Islamabad, Pakistan
University, Islamabad, Pakistan
University, Islamabad , Pakistan

Interest Rate and Inflation . . . Research
1: Introduction
An important goal of the central bank of any country is to

control inflation and to achieve the price stability. In the words of
Svensson (2000), the central bank ‘looks at every other thing but is
focused on inflation’. For this purpose, central bank uses different
variables as policy tools. In recent years, many of central banks
adopted strategy of increasing interest rates with the aim to prevent
the economy from an increase in inflation. The significance of interest
rate in monetary policy is increasing day by day, even according to
Throton (2012) today, the more appropriate name of monetary policy
should be an interest rate policy because policymakers pay virtually
no attention to money and this is virtually true for every central bank’.
This is despite the fact that many of well-known economists strictly
oppose the use of interest rate to fight inflation. In the words of Wright
Patman, Chairman of the Joint Economic Committee of America
Congress, ‘raising interest rates to fight inflation is like throwing
gasoline on fire’ yet many central banks are using same gasoline to
fight with the fire of inflation (Lima & Setterfield, 2010). Since 2005, in
Pakistan, the State Bank of Pakistan has announced to use ‘tight
monetary policy’ and set the interest rate at a high level to cope with
the high inflation (Javid & Munir, 2010).
There are various opinions on how the interest rate affects

the inflation. The most popular is so called demand side of the
Monetary Transmission Mechanism. According to the demand side
of MTM, a rise in interest rate will decrease the money supply, therefore
the aggregate demand will decrease and ultimately the price level will
decrease. Most studies on the relationship between interest rate and
inflation have focused on this popular Demand side MTM channel
and pay no attention to the alternative channels (Barth & Ramey 2001,
Rehman & Malik, 2010).
However there are several other channels to link the interest

rate with the level of prices, which show that a rise in interest rate
would raise the price level. For example cost channel states that the
rise of interest rate will increase the cost of production, shifting up the

aggregate supply curve. This will create a rise in the general level of
prices. For the last two decades monetary economists also focused
on cost channel of MTM. There are large numbers of studies on the
cost channel of the Monetary Transmission which has been sited at
appropriate place.
It is also possible that the decreasing effect of MTM via a

decrease in aggregate demand is offset by the increasing effect of the
cost channel of the MTM and the net impact of interest rate on prices
is zero or insignificant, as found by Bernanke and Gertler (1995). In
this case, the use of interest rate as a policy variable will be ineffective.
Controversy exists among the economist about the effects of monetary
policy on economy. According to Bernanke and Gertler (1995),
‘Empirical analysis of the effects of monetary policy has treated the
MTM itself as a ‘black box’
The three cases have different implications for the monetary policy. If
the demand side effect of MTM is more effective, then using the
interest rate as a policy tool might be justified. However, if the cost
channel is more effective, then the interest based monetary policy
would worsen the situation rather than improving it. If the two types
of effects cancel each other, then the interest based monetary policy
would be ineffective to control inflation.
The idea of current study is; let the data decide whether the inflation
has increasing or decreasing affect on the price level. Since the theories
are conflicting, a model based on one theory ignoring rival theories is
not justified. Therefore we start with a general atheoretic model taking
into account the variables of all popular channels of interest-inflation
relationship. The atheoretic models such as ARDL often reduce to
model consistent with certain economic theory, by imposing the
restrictions not opposed by the data. The model formulated this way
will be automatically compatible with theory and data. Therefore we
estimate an atheoretic ARDL model and estimate the coefficients of
short run and long run parameter of relationship between interest rate
and prices.

2: literature review
Many researchers have investigated the relationship between

interest rate and inflation. But no consensus is found regarding this
relationship. Generally it is considered that there is negative
relationship between interest rate and inflation. However evidences
were found against it, therefore the economists were puzzled by this
finding and they called it price puzzle. Later on, many researchers
found a theoretical basis for the positive relation between two
variables. Presently, the views on the relations between inflation and
interest rate can be divided into three types.
1. The theories focusing on the demand side effect of MTM which

says that the rising interest rate will reduce prices. The monetary
policies adopted by most of the central banks are based on
these theories.
2. The theories focusing on the supply side effect, which says that
rising interest rate, will increase the inflation. This is also called
the cost channel of monetary transmission mechanism.
3. Third and less popular view is that the expansionary and

contractionary effects of interest rate on prices cancel each
other and the net effect is insignificant.
In the following section, we will cite selected papers in support of

each of these three views.
2.1: Text Book Demand Channel of MTM
The demand side dominant view of monetary suggests that

tight monetary policy leads towards decline in inflation. Most of
economist has been focusing only on this channel as an explanation
of the relationship between interest rate and prices. Therefore the list
of studies on the demand channel is too large. Following are some
selected papers which favor the existence of text book demand channel
of MTM.

Seelig (1974), Rabanl (2003, 2007) and Castelnuovo and Surico

(2010) conclude that there is negative relationship between interest
rate and monetary policy shock in the US economy. Castelnuovo and
Surico further conclude that price puzzle is an artifact, not a fact
because price puzzle arises due to model misspecification. Rabanal
further argues that in US economy demand channel dominates the
cost channel. Rabanl (2003), Henzel et al (2007), Hueslsewilg et al
(2006) also found dominance of demand channel of monetary
transmission mechanism in the Euro area economy. Mohanty (2012)
found that an increase in policy rate has negative impact on inflation
in Indian economy. Saleem (2010), Kashif&Qayyum (2012) also found
a negative relationship between interest rate and inflation in Pakistan
economy. All of these studies conclude that interest rate channel is
effective MTM channel for Pakistan economy.
2.2: Cost Channel of MTM:
Many economists claim that a rise in interest rate leads to

inflation. Monetary policy therefore affects the cost side of the
economy. Consider the case of a monetary tightening that leads to a
rise in the short term interest rate. Higher interest rates translate into
higher costs of working capital and shifting up the supply curve and
raising the equilibrium price. This adverse supply side effect
counteracts the more conventional demand side effects of monetary
policy (Tillmann 2008). The dominance of supply side effects of
interest rate seriously challenges the high interest rate policy to check
inflation. According to Ali (2012) the net effect on prices and other
variables would depend upon the degree of supply side effects of
interest rate.
Since long there are many evidences for the cost channels
of monetary transmission mechanism. Few of these studies are cited
below. Gibson (1923) found the positive correlation between interest
rates and prices in the UK data over a period of 200 years. This
finding was against the perception of economists therefore they
named it as a Gibson Paradox. Kitchin (1923) and Peake (1928) also
report evidence of a positive correlation between short term interest
rates and prices. However, the research during 1950 to 2000 did not
focus on the supply side effects of MTM and these model were not
assumed standard. According to Seelig (1974), the impact of interest
rate changes on inflation was fairly negligible during the 1950s and
1960s.
The research on the cost channel was revived by study of

Barth & Ramey (2001) who used data from 1960-96 and following his
research many papers started exploring cost channel.
Barth & Ramey (2001), Chowdhury et al (2006), Ravenna &

Walsh (2006), and Tillmann P (2008) found that the nominal interest
rate has a significant positive effect on inflation in the US economy.
All these studies found the existence of cost channel of MTM in US
economy. Tillmann P (2008) also found positive relationship between
interest rate and inflation in UK & Euro Area. Qiang & Xin (2010)
found significant presence of cost channel of MTM in Chinese
economy and cost channel weaken the capacity of monetary policy to
reduce inflation. Ali (2012) revisited the high interest rate policy (Taylor
rule) to control inflation and its supply side effects and concluded
that higher interest rate is not an effective tool in the presence of
supply side effects of interest rate and increases in the nominal interest
rate is unwise policy to cope with inflation. Christiano et al (2005),
found cost channel works against the demand channel in US economy
and the response of prices to a monetary policy shock diminishes,
there is positive response of inflation regarding increase in policy rate
and inflation increasing after a monetary policy contraction. Passamani
and Tamborini (2006) found the presence of credit cost channel of
monetary transmission mechanism in Italy and Germany. They conclude
that in both countries’ firms heavily reliance on bank loan (credit
channel) make aggregate supply sensitive to bank interest rates (cost
channel) which are affected by the central bank’s interbank rate.
Felipe (2009), Rehman & Malik (2010), Javid & Munir (2010)
and Jehan & Rashid (2011) show the positive effect of interest rate on
inflation in Pakistan economy.
2.3: The Interaction of Cost And Demand Channel
Different studies have shown different relationships between

interest rate and inflation. These controversial evidences create
misleading about the relationship between interest rate on inflation
because researchers focus only one channel. There is need to consider

all channels at once, so that one could find an unbiased estimate of
the relationship two variables. Now days, economists have discovered
number of other transmission mechanisms, through which a monetary
policy could affect the inflation (see Ghaffari (2013) for a nice
discussion). However, ultimate impacts all of these channels will be
either through changing aggregate demand or through aggregate
supply. The demand side channels suggest a reduction in inflation
by reduction in aggregate demand, whereas supply side channels
suggest increase in inflation through reduction in aggregate supply.
However, it is also possible that monetary policy affects economy
through the two channels simultaneously. But discussion on what
will happen if both channels are present in economy is rarely found in
the literature. Ghaffari (2013) in his MS thesis discusses the
implications of simultaneous effect of cost and demand side effects.
There is also the possibility that increasing effect on prices

due to supply side effects is offset by decreasing the effect of the
demand side and the net effect of interest rate on prices is insignificant.
The first study supporting this possibility is due to Bernanke and
Gertler (1995) found that empirical results suggest that small and
temporary fluctuations in open market interest rates caused by
monetary policy shocks have a large and continuous effect on output.
‘They further claimed that credit channel and traditional monetary
channel working in tandem as a result both the AD curve & AS
curve shifts upward, leading to a large change in output
accompanied by a small change in prices’
Some other studies also support the clue that effect of interest
rate on inflation is insignificant. Rehman (2011) made a final model of
inflation using Hendry methodology, after comparing various existing
models for inflation in Pakistan. His final model does not contain
interest rate. This implies that according to Rehman (2011) interest
rate is not a significant determinant of inflation. Rizvi et al. (2012) also
found insignificant relation between interest Rate and inflation for
Pakistan economy. Ghaffari (2013) found insignificant relationship
between different combination of interest rate and inflation.
For Pakistan one can find the studies which are based on
the cost channel and the studies which are based on the demand

channel. But since there is strong theoretical justification for both

types of theories, an analysis based on one type of theory ignoring
the rival theories is subject to missing variables bias. The current
study is an attempt to find the net impact of interest rate on inflation;
taking into account both supply side and demand side variables in
order to avoid the missing variable bias.
3.1. Methodology and Data Description
As stated earlier, different theories suggest a different impact

of interest rate on inflation. The famous demand side effect of the
Monetary Transmission Mechanism suggests that the rise of interest
rate should decrease the inflation, whereas the cost channel suggests
that the rise of interest will cause a rise in prices. We have no reason
to prefer one theory over another. Therefore we start with a general
model that encompasses all the transmission mechanisms and
construct a final model by simplifying it. The methodology consists
of the following:
3.1.1 General to specific methodology and construction of most

general model
Interest rate is not the only determinant of inflation, inflation

depends on many other variables, and if these variables are not
included in the regression model, the estimates of remaining model
would be biased. Therefore it is necessary to include all potential
determinants of inflation in the regression model to get consistent
and unbiased estimates of coefficients of interest rate in the inflation
– interest rate relationship.
The theories linking interest rate with inflation are conflicting

and do not lead us clear conclusion. In this case, estimating a model
based on one theory and ignoring the rival theories is not justified.
This problem can be solved by formulating a most general a theoretic
model which encompasses conflicting theories and then imposing
various restrictions on the parameters of model after testing their
validity. Following Davidson et al. (1978) general to specific
methodology will be utilized in this study.

3.1.2 Constructing the Most General Model
Different channel of MTM states that inflation may be a

function of interest rate ( ), total credit ( ), index of import prices
( ), index of export prices ( ), exchange rate ( ) and money supply
( ). These are considered as monetary determinants of inflation.
……………………………. (1)
Many other determinants of inflation are also cited in
literature. Especially with reference to Pakistan, Rehman (2011)
compares these models and finds Markup Pricing Model to be best
performing. According to Rehman (2011) this model “encompasses
and is not encompassed by” other models. This implies that other
models cannot improve over the predictive performance of Markup
Pricing Model4. This model involves following variables; unit labor
cost ( ), tax rate ( ) and fuel prices ( ).
……………………………….(2)
The Taylor Rule set the rate of interest on looking at the output and
inflation. Therefore the inflation actually observed is indirectly
dependent on these variables and model for inflation takes from
…………………………………………………. (3)
Therefore the most general model takes the following form
π = (i, CR,IP, ER, MS, SP, ULC, TAX, FP, y,y * )…… (4)
We are using wage as an indicator of unit labor cost and output gap
as the actual output and potential output therefore the model we
will be estimating will become:
4
Mark up pricing model made by Rehman (2011). He took all existing inflation
models for Pakistan economy and after applied Hendry ’s methodology; he
constructed a mark up model which is most suitable model of inflation for
Pakistan economy because the beauty of Hendry ’s methodology is that it has
the statistical properties of being empirically constant, parsimonious; data
consistent and the existing model automatically consistent with theory.

π = (i, CR,IP, ER, MS, SP, W, TAX, FP,OG)………………… (5)
In Eq. no 5, the inflation ( ) is a function of interest rate ( ),

total credit ( ), index of import prices ( ), exchange rate ( ), money
supply ( ), and share price ( ), unit labor cost ( ), tax ( ),
fuel prices ( ), difference of actual output and potential output (OG).
The model (5) encompasses the monetary and non-monetary

determinants of inflation as well as the indicators used by the central
bank to set the interest rate. Since all the important determinants of
inflation are included in the model (5), and this model is capable of
providing unbiased estimators.
If the sign of long run coefficients of interest rate in the

model (5) is negative, this should be consistent with the popular
demand channel of MTM which provides the basis of Taylor rule. If
the sign is positive, this may be consistent with cost channel of MTM.
The coefficients of remaining variables are important in their own
place, but have no direct relation with MTM; however these variables
are necessary in order to avoid missing variable bias.
3.1.3 Simplifying the Most General Model
Including all the relevant variables in a model for inflation

yields a very large model, which is not suitable because a parsimonious
model is always preferable over a large model. Therefore general to
simple methodology can be adopted to select the set of regressors for
inflation. General to specific methodology can be applied in many
ways. The method which we are using is described as below.
Consider the most general model described in Eq. (5). We are using
various measures of inflation and interest rate.

Let set 1= ( be the set of different measures of

inflation and set 2 = ( be the set of different
measures of interest rate.
1. We take the pair ( ) where is a measure of inflation from
set 1 and is measure of interest rate from set 2
2. Estimate Auto Regressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL)

taking as dependent variable and lags of , lag and current
values of and lagged and current values of other regressors as
independent variables.
3. Test exclusion restrictions on all lags of each regressor.
4. Repeat the above mentioned process for all possible

combinations of &
5. Exclude a variable if it is not significant in all the models in step

4
3.1.4. Testing the Long Run Relationship
Non stationarity in economic variables have created

extraordinary complications in the analysis of time series data. The
existence of a long run relationship between two variables is tested
via bound testing approach introduced by Pesaran (2001). Bound
testing approach has the beauty to bypass the complications involved
in stationarity testing and can be used to verify the existence of the
long run relationship between series regardless of the fact that whether
they are stationary or non-stationary. Bound testing approach is
described below.
Run the following Regression
∆t = α + β1 t−1 + β2 it−1 + α1 ∆it + ∑kj=1 δj ∆j−1 + γj ∆it−j +∈t ………… (6)
In Eq. 6 p denotes inflation and denotes interest rate. The Greek
letters denotes the regression coefficients and is the stochastic
error term.

Test the restriction of

Using F- statistics proposed by Pesaran (2001).
If the F- statistics is greater than the upper bound, then long run
relations exist.
If the F- statistics is smaller than the lower bound, then the long run
relation does not exist.
If the long run relation in the above model is intimated, this

will mean that the interest rate and inflation are correlated in the long
run and the effect of all other variables is transitory. If the long run
relation is not confirmed, then this model will be augmented by
incorporating control variables and the long run relation for this
augmented model will be tested. The augmented model takes the
following form:
∆t = α + β1 t−1 + β2 it−1 + β3 Xt−1 + α1 ∆it−1 + α2 ∆Xt + ∑kj=1 δj ∆t−j + γj ∆it−j + ρj ∆Xt−j +∈t …… (7)
X denotes the vector of all control variables. The coefficients of X are

in vector form. The long run relationship can be verified by testing
restriction.
3.1.5 Testing Granger Causality
The First objective of this research is to analyze whether if

there is some impact of interest rate on inflation. For this purpose we
will test the existence of relationship between two variables via Granger
Causality.
Suppose we want to test whether granger causes on or not.

Other things remaining same if the distribution of conditional on lag
values of and lag values of is equal to distribution of conditional it’s
on lag then does not grange cause .
Following procedure willbe adopted in order to testing ganger

causality.

•Regress on its own lags, lag value of and lag value of other
control variables
•Test restrictions of all lags of via standard Long Run test

•If the restriction is valid then lag values of play no role to determine
ð and does not Granger cause .
3.1.6. Contemporaneous Granger Causality and Estimating Long Run

Relationship
Major difference between Grange causality and

contemporaneous Granger causality is the inclusion of current values
of regressors, along with their lags. In the testing procedure of standard
Granger causality is assumed that the cause appears before the
consequence. However contemporaneous Granger causality assumes
that the current values of cause variable also affect the dependent
variable. Therefore the procedure is as follows:
•Regress π on lags of π, current value and lags of, and current values
and lags of X.
•Test restrictions of all lags of via standard Long Run test.

•If the restriction is valid then lag values of play no role to determine
π & i does not Grange cause .
3.1.7 Estimation of Static Long Run solution
The third step to investigate the impact of interest rate on

inflation is to calculate the Static Long Run relationship between
interest rate and inflation. For this purpose, ARDL model will be
estimated and then static long run solution will be calculated. The
long run solution can be calculated by setting
it = it−1 … . , πt = πt−1 , ….
and
Xt = Xt−1 = Xt−2 , ….

We used the following measures of interest rate as named:

Discount rate (DR)5, Treasury bill Rate (TB), Call Money Rate (CMR),
Govt. Bond Yield (GB), the overnight interest rate (ONIR)6. We used
the following measures of inflation name as Consumer price index
general (CPIG).
Consumer price food index (CPIF), Consumer price nonfood index
(CPINF), Wholesale price index general (WPIG), Wholesale price index
food (WPIF) and Wholesale price index nonfood (WPINF).
We used the above mentioned procedure for all measurements of

inflation. Similarly the data on growth in money supply and the output
will be used as annual quarterly and monthly growth in money supply.
Other variables that we used in the model are.
- Manufacturing Production index (MPI),
- Wage Index as a proxy of unit labor cost
- Import Prices Index
- Export Price Index
- The ratio of total income tax to GDP
- The output gap, measures the deviation of the natural log
of MPI from the natural log of trend MPI.
- Money supply (M2)
- Total credit provided by banking sector
- Exchange rate (official Pkr/ $ US)
- Share Prices
- Fuel Prices
We used the monthly data from July 1991 to June 2010 in
this study. The data on these variables is obtained from various issues
of State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), International Financial Statistics
(IFS), Statistical Bulletin of Pakistan and Economic Survey of Pakistan.
4. Results
4.1.1. Simplifying the Most General Model
We have following measures of interest rate as named Govt.
Treasury Bill Rate (TB), Call Money Rate (CMR), Discount Rate (DR)
and Overnight Interest Rate (ONR) and Govt. Yield Bond (GB).
5
SBP Reserve Repo rate is also used for the name of discount rate; rate at which
banks borrow from SBP on an overnight basis.
6
Overnight Repo rate is also used for the name of overnight interest rate; a rate
at banks deposits their end of cash with SBP at overnight basis

We have following measures of inflation named as Consumer

Price Index General (CPIG), Consumer Price Food Index (CPIF),
Consumer Price Non Food Index (CPINF), Wholesale Price Index
General (WPIG), Wholesale Price Food Index (WPIF) and Wholesale
Price Non Food Index (WPINF) Total Credit (CR), Index of Import
prices (IP), Index of Export Prices (EP), Exchange Rate (ER), Money
Supply (MS), Share Price (SP), Tax Rate (TX) Fuel Prices (FP) and
Output Gap (OG). The results are summarized in Table.
Table No. 1.
Simplifying the Most General Model
Table No. 1.
SP ER TX IP EP CR W FP OG M2 i
CPIG ONR Coefficient 1.58 2.99 0.28 1.95 3.97 0.6 3.12 3.63 2.59 1.91 0.28
P-value 0.16 0.01** 0.95 0.08 0.00** 0.73 0.01** 0.00** 0.02* 0.08 0.95
DR Coefficient 1.59 2.55 0.25 2.22 2.46 0.38 3.24 3.54 3.12 1.77 1.09
P-value 0.16 0.02* 0.96 0.05 0.03* 0.89 0.01** 0.00** 0.01** 0.11 0.37
TB6 Coefficient 1.51 2.78 0.21 2.18 3.21 0.36 3.25 3.48 3.03 1.94 0.19
P-value 0.18 0.01** 0.97 0.05 0.01** 0.9 0.01** 0.00** 0.01** 0.08 0.98
CMR Coefficient 1.58 2.73 0.31 1.93 3.99 0.62 3 3.58 2.66 1.88 0.28
P-value 0.16 0.02* 0.93 0.08 0.00** 0.71 0.01** 0.00** 0.02* 0.09 0.95
CPIF ONR Coefficient 1.85 3.17 0.38 2.22 4.44 1.52 3.22 3.6 3.31 1.09 0.25
P-value 0.09 0.01** 0.89 0.05 0.00** 0.18 0.01** 0.00** 0.00** 0.37 0.96
DR Coefficient 2.01 2.54 0.27 2.66 3.06 0.59 3.28 3.43 3.55 1.15 1
P-value 0.07 0.02* 0.95 0.02* 0.01** 0.74 0.00** 0.00** 0.00** 0.34 0.43
TB6 Coefficient 1.57 2.64 0.52 2.48 4.48 1.32 3.75 3.72 3.48 1.4 0.69
P-value 0.16 0.02* 0.79 0.03* 0.00** 0.25 0.00** 0.00** 0.00** 0.22 0.66
CMR Coefficient 1.8 2.84 0.41 2.17 4.49 1.51 3.09 3.39 3.57 1.06 0.41
P-value 0.1 0.01** 0.87 0.05 0.00** 0.18 0.01** 0.00** 0.00** 0.39 0.87
CPINF ONR Coefficient 2.58 1.28 1.02 2.1 1.06 0.52 2.79 2.11 1.15 0.96 0.26
P-value 0.02* 0.27 0.41 0.06 0.39 0.79 0.01** 0.06 0.34 0.45 0.96
DR Coefficient 1.87 1.18 1 2.27 0.61 0.91 2.64 2.59 1.18 1.03 2.01
P-value 0.09 0.32 0.43 0.04* 0.72 0.49 0.02* 0.02* 0.32 0.41 0.07
TB6 Coefficient 2.52 1.95 1.76 2.25 0.86 1.07 3.05 2.65 1.41 0.81 2.82
P-Value 0.02* 0.08 0.11 0.04* 0.53 0.39 0.01** 0.02* 0.22 0.57 0.01**
CMR Coefficient 2.61 1.27 1.04 1.97 1.13 0.56 2.67 2.31 1.26 1.17 0.56
P-Value 0.02* 0.28 0.4 0.07 0.35 0.76 0.02* 0.04* 0.28 0.33 0.76
WPIG ONR Coefficient 2.73 0.71 0.62 1.76 2.56 0.18 2.98 3.23 6.78 1.64 0.12
P-Value 0.02* 0.64 0.71 0.11 0.02* 0.98 0.01** 0.01** 0.00** 0.14 0.99
DR Coefficient 3.21 1.07 0.97 2.98 2.14 0.66 3.26 3.47 7.83 1.44 2.02
P-Value 0.01** 0.38 0.45 0.01** 0.05 0.68 0.01** 0.00** 0.00** 0.2 0.07
TB6 Coefficient 3.06 0.88 0.76 2.25 2.09 0.52 3.59 3.16 7.77 1.48 0.82
P-Value 0.01** 0.51 0.6 0.04* 0.06 0.79 0.00** 0.01** 0.00** 0.19 0.56
CMR Coefficient 2.65 0.78 0.63 1.62 2.55 0.18 2.97 3.49 6.78 1.72 0.13
P-Value 0.02* 0.59 0.71 0.15 0.02** 0.98 0.01** 0.00** 0.00** 0.12 0.99
WPIF ONR Coefficient 1.39 2.38 0.67 1.29 4.45 1.46 4.62 2.33 2.56 1.21 0.34
P-Value 0.23 0.03* 0.67 0.27 0.00** 0.2 0.00** 0.04* 0.02* 0.31 0.92
DR Coefficient 1.51 2.59 0.53 1.71 3.64 0.65 5.59 2.42 3.46 1.55 2.37
P-value 0.18 0.02* 0.79 0.12 0.00** 0.69 0.00** 0.03* 0.00** 0.17 0.03*
TB6 Coefficient 1.41 1.85 0.92 1.49 4.84 1.61 5.15 2.36 3.05 1.45 0.64
P-value 0.22 0.09 0.48 0.19 0.00** 0.15 0.00** 0.03* 0.01** 0.2 0.7
CMR Coefficient 1.43 2.25 0.75 1.24 4.64 1.52 4.5 2.3 2.69 1.38 0.37
P-value 0.21 0.04* 0.61 0.29 0.00** 0.18 0.00** 0.04* 0.02* 0.23 0.89
WPINF ONR Coefficient 2.3 0.81 0.93 1.81 1.33 0.83 1.88 5.48 6.55 2.26 0.24
P-value 0.04* 0.56 0.47 0.1 0.25 0.55 0.09 0.00** 0.00** 0.04* 0.96
DR Coefficient 3.23 1.44 1.86 3.27 1.34 1.94 1.88 5.93 7.86 1.76 3.05
P-value 0.01** 0.2 0.09 0.01** 0.25 0.08 0.09 0.00** 0.00** 0.11 0.01**
TB6 Coefficient 2.94 1.12 1.67 2.44 1.4 1.77 2.52 5.6 7.65 1.79 1.63
P-value 0.01** 0.35 0.13 0.03* 0.22 0.11 0.02* 0.00** 0.00** 0.11 0.14
CMR Coefficient 2.27 0.9 0.96 1.75 1.26 0.87 1.88 5.66 6.62 2.37 0.4
P-value 0.04* 0.5 0.46 0.11 0.28 0.52 0.09 0.00** 0.00** 0.03* 0.88
*, Significant at 5% le ve l, **, significant at 1% le vel
The re sults are base d on m onthly data. The variable TX, CR and W are not available at monthly fre quency, s o their values we re e stim ate d interpolation (e xponential s moothing).

Since the variables tax and credit appeared to be insignificant in all of

the models estimated, which are tabulated above, we exclude them
from the model and the model takes following form.
π = f(i, IP, ER, MS, SP, W, FP, OG).
4.1.2. Verifying of Existence of Long Run Relation
There are two potential sources of basis in analysis of time series

data.
1. Missing Variable Bias
2. Spurious Regression.
We have adopted general to specific methodology to avoid

missing variables bias. Now to avoid Spurious Regression problems,
we have to verify the Long Run relation (cointegration in the loose
sense) between desired variables. We have applied bound test to test
Long Run relation between interest rate and inflation. The results are
summarized table 2 (a) and table 2 (b).
Table 2a
Long Run Relationship between Interest Rates a nd
Inflation
ONR DR TBR6 CMR
CPIG 2 .5072 4.2805 2.0572 3.8117
CPIF 1 .4643 1.8711 1.1924 1.0715
CPINF 3 .5682 2.6201 4.9630 3.5748
WPIG 5.9668* 8.0459* 7.0730* 5.9907*
WPIF 24.403* 26 .013* 26.435* 27.916*
W PINF 6.2535* 10 .977* 7.4482* 5.8373*
Lower Bound: 4.9 4, Upper Bound:5.73
* , Null hypothesis (no long run relations) is rejected

We observed that long run relation exists between all kinds

of wholesale price indices and all kinds of interest rate; however this
table is not giving information about the nature of relation, whether it
is positive or negative. In the above table no 2 (a) we found there exist
long run relationship between interest rate and Wholesale Price Index.
We did not find long run relationship between interest rate and
Consumer Price Index because demand side effects cancel out with
supply side effect.
This table only supports the fact that if we run a regression

of two variables, the result will not be spurious.
There is no Long Run relation between consumer price and

interest rate.
Table 2b
Long Run Relationship between Interest Rates,
Inflation and Covariates
ONR DR TBR6 CMR
CPIG 5.3320* 4.8576* 5.2511* 5.6088*
CPIF 4.8580* 4.5244* 4.8261* 5.1423*
CPINF 4.4547* 3.9465* 4.3173* 4.5528*
WPIG 4.2634* 4.0498* 4.2411* 4.2753*
WPIF 3.8856* 2.7106 4.2411* 4.0818*
WPINF 3.7247* 3.6951* 3.6768* 3.7264*
Lower Bound: 2.32, Upper Bound:3.50
*, Null hypothesis (no long run relations) is
rejected.

We observed that long run relation exists between all kinds

of price indices and all kinds of interest rate. This implies that estimates
of regression with covariates are not subject to spurious regression
bias.
4.1.3. Granger Causality
After verification of the long run relation between inflation

and interest rate, we proceed to testing Granger Causality. We want
to test whether interest rate Granger Cause inflation or not.
Table 3.
Testing Granger Causality between Inflation and Interest Rate
SP ER TX IP EP CR W FP OG M2 i
CPIG ONR Coefficient 1.55 4.09 0.52 2.3 5.92 0.65 4.32 5.06 1.89 1.69 0.6
P-value 0.18 0** 0.76 0.05 0** 0.66 0** 0** 0.1 0.13 0.7
DR Coefficient 1.6 4.22 0.88 2.58 4.52 0.61 3.63 4.57 2.33 1.76 1.47
P-value 0.16 0** 0.5 0.03* 0** 0.69 0** 0** 0.05 0.11 0.2
T B6 Coefficient 1.44 3.93 0.54 2.51 5.18 0.55 4.44 4.74 1.89 1.55 0.16
P-value 0.22 0** 0.75 0.03* 0** 0.74 0** 0** 0.1 0.17 0.98
CMR Coefficient 1.47 3.74 0.51 2.31 5.7 0.6 4.16 4.77 1.93 1.56 0.49
P-value 0.2 0** 0.77 0.05 0** 0.7 0** 0** 0.09 0.16 0.78
CPIF ONR Coefficient 1.83 4.34 0.08 2.15 6.7 1.25 3.22 5.44 3.05 1.84 0.68
P-value 0.11 0** 0.99 0.06 0** 0.29 0.01** 0** 0.01** 0.11 0.64
DR Coefficient 2.09 3.86 0.28 2.62 4.74 0.32 2.4 4.67 3.17 1.98 1.31
P-value 0.07 0** 0.92 0.03* 0** 0.9 0.04 0** 0.01** 0.09 0.27
T B6 Coefficient 1.39 3.7 0.07 2.37 6.36 0.98 3.41 5.43 2.67 1.93 0.61
P-value 0.23 0** 1 0.04 0** 0.43 0.01** 0** 0.02* 0.09 0.7
CMR Coefficient 1.68 3.9 0.07 2.11 6.67 1.19 3.05 5.23 3.09 1.76 0.83
P-value 0.14 0** 1 0.07 0** 0.32 0.01** 0** 0.01** 0.12 0.53
CPINF ONR Coefficient 3.07 0.98 0.51 2.45 1.26 0.81 4.63 1.51 1.15 0.78 0.24
P-value 0.01** 0.43 0.77 0.04 0.29 0.55 0** 0.19 0.34 0.56 0.94
DR Coefficient 2.54 1.27 0.93 2.54 1.04 1.06 4.9 1.89 1.46 1.1 2.16
P-value 0.03* 0.28 0.46 0.03* 0.4* 0.38 0** 0.1** 0.21 0.36 0.06
T B6 Coefficient 3.25 1.89 1.54 2.49 1.28 1.67 5.76 1.61 1.37 0.64 4.14
P-Value 0.01** 0.1 0.18 0.03 0.28 0.14 0** 0.16 0.24 0.67 0**
CMR Coefficient 3.27 1.07 0.59 2.4 1.36 0.9 4.8 1.57 1.38 0.71 0.86
P-Value 0.01** 0.38 0.71 0.04* 0.24 0.48 0** 0.17 0.24 0.61 0.51
WPIG ONR Coefficient 1.8 0.51 1.25 2.33 3.32 1.75 3.49 3.24 2.96 1.77 1.15
P-Value 0.12 0.77 0.29 0.05 0.01** 0.11 0.01** 0.01** 0.01** 0.12 0.34
DR Coefficient 1.31 0.47 1.45 1.94 2.97 1.35 3.52 3.03 2.59 1.44 1.03
P-Value 0.26 0.8 0.21 0.09 0.01** 0.24 0.01 0.01** 0.03* 0.21 0.4
T B6 Coefficient 1.63 0.41 1.37 1.84 2.98 1.52 3.91 3.26 2.92 1.18 0.54
P-Value 0.16 0.84 0.24 0.11 0.01** 0.18 0** 0.01** 0.02* 0.32 0.75
CMR Coefficient 1.65 0.5 1.21 2.37 3.14 1.78 3.38 3.07 2.94 1.73 0.75
P-Value 0.15 0.78 0.31 0.04* 0.01** 0.11 0.01** 0.01** 0.01** 0.13 0.59
WPIF ONR Coefficient 0.66 2.23 0.23 1.38 5.9 0.81 4.25 3.48 1.46 1.84 0.84
P-Value 0.65 0.06 0.95 0.24 0** 0.54 0** 0.01** 0.21 0.11 0.53
DR Coefficient 0.7 2.99 0.52 1.35 5.01 0.56 4.79 2.88 2.29 2.49 3.21
P-value 0.63 0.01** 0.76 0.25 0** 0.73 0** 0.02* 0.05 0.03* 0.01**
T B6 Coefficient 0.5 1.99 0.39 1.49 5.79 1 4.46 3.05 1.5 1.7 0.56
P-value 0.78 0.08 0.85 0.2 0** 0.42 0** 0.01** 0.19 0.14 0.73
CMR Coefficient 0.63 1.94 0.31 1.46 5.86 0.76 4.05 3.38 1.46 1.93 0.87
P-value 0.67 0.09 0.9 0.21 0** 0.58 0** 0.01** 0.21 0.09 0.5
WPINF ONR Coefficient 1.44 0.51 1.34 2.5 1.49 2.15 2.65 3.34 2.34 1.9 0.45
P-value 0.21 0.77 0.25 0.05 0.2 0.06 0.03* 0.01** 0.04* 0.1 0.81
DR Coefficient 1.73 0.5 1.83 2.42 1.5 2.27 2.9 2.56 2.24 1.69 1.19
P-value 0.13 0.78 0.11 0.04 0.2 0.05 0.02* 0.03* 0.05 0.14 0.32
T B6 Coefficient 1.54 0.29 1.59 1.82 1.6 2.13 3.22 3.24 2.17 1.41 0.46
P-value 0.18 0.92 0.17 0.11 0.16 0.06 0.01** 0.01** 0.06 0.22 0.81
CMR Coefficient 1.32 0.54 1.36 2.16 1.5 2.31 2.7 3.22 2.38 1.87 0.27
P-value 0.26 0.75 0.24 0.06 0.19 0.05 0.02* 0.01** 0.04* 0.1 0.93
*, Significant at 5% level, **, significant at 1% level

As the last column of the results summarized in table 3 shows

that the interest rate does not Granger Cause inflation for all
combinations of choice of interest rate and inflation except for pairs
only (CPIF, DR).
4.1.4. Static Long Run Relation between Interest Rate and Inflation
The Granger Causality test only shows that whether or not

the cause variable affects the consequence variable. However it cannot
tell the direction in which the cause variable pushes the consequences
to know about the direction of the relation between interest rate and
inflation. Our last objective is to find coefficient of interest rate in
interest rate- inflation relationship. We estimate the Eq. 5 which is
constructed after simplifying most general model. The Static Long
Run was founded based on the procedure described in section 3.1.7.
The coefficients of interest rates in table 4 are found insignificant for
all combinations of Consumer Price Indices, Wholesale Price Indices
and interest rate, except for a pair (CPIF, DR). This means that the
interest rate does not effect on inflation except the food price inflation
but the coefficient is positive which implies an interest rate raises the
food price inflation. Results show that interest rate has no affects on
inflation. In the table4 only the combination of (CPIF, DR) showed a
significant relationship between interest rate and inflation and only
the combination of (WPIF, CMR) showed an insignificant but negative
relationship between interest rate and inflation. Our results confirmed
that the interest rate is not a significant determinant of inflation
(Rehman, 2011).
We found that long run relationship exists. This implies that

there are very strong evidences that the relation between interest and
inflation is either insignificant or positive. Therefore the use of interest
rate for controlling inflation is strictly undesirable.

Table no.4
Static Long Run Relation between Inflation and Interest Rate
Constant SP ER IP EP W FP OG M2 i
CPIG ONR Coefficient -102.36 0.01 0.59 0.06 -0.18 0.01 0.08 0.02 9.29 -0.05
P-value 0.03* 0.87 0.00** 0.05 0.00** 0.00** 0.04 0.84 0.01** 0.67
DR Coefficient -93.47 0.05 0.65 0.03 -0.14 0.01 0.07 0.03 7.98 0.38
P-value 0.05 0.25 0.00** 0.28 0.00** 0.00** 0.07 0.74 0.04* 0.11
TB6 Coefficient -118.51 0.03 0.58 0.03 -0.16 0.01 0.08 0.06 10.41 0.16
P-value 0.02 0.39 0.00** 0.28 0.00** 0.00** 0.04 0.54 0.01** 0.25
CMR Coefficient -110.16 0.01 0.59 0.06 -0.18 0.01 0.08 0.02 9.93 -0.08
P-value 0.02 0.88 0.00** 0.04 0.00** 0.00** 0.04 0.87 0.01** 0.56
CPIF ONR Coefficient 16.37 0.11 0.72 0.07 -0.34 0.02 0.07 0.00** -0.01 0
P-value 0.86 0.15 0.00** 0.18 0.00** 0.00** 0.34 0.99 1 0.99
DR Coefficient 26.73 0.2 0.83 0.01** -0.25 0.02 0.07 0.01** -2.12 0.91
P-value 0.77 0.02 0.00** 0.91 0.00** 0.00** 0.32 0.97 0.78 0.04
TB6 Coefficient -52.81 0.15 0.68 0.03 -0.3 0.02 0.08 0.08 5.29 0.38
P-value 0.57 0.03* 0.00** 0.66 0.00** 0.00** 0.24 0.63 0.48 0.15
CMR Coefficient 9.4 0.11 0.7 0.07 -0.34 0.02 0.07 -0.02 0.55 -0.03
P-value 0.92 0.14 0.00** 0.19 0.00** 0.00** 0.33 0.91 0.94 0.9
CPINF ONR Coefficient -150.62 -0.08 0.46 0.04 -0.08 0.01 0.11 -0.07 12.8 -0.07
P-value 0.01** 0.09 0.00** 0.26 0.06 0.00** 0.02* 0.58 0.00** 0.64
DR Coefficient -143.33 -0.06 0.48 0.02 -0.05 0.01 0.11 -0.07 11.9 0.18
P-value 0.01** 0.21 0.00** 0.65 0.28 0.00** 0.04* 0.58 0.01** 0.5
TB6 Coefficient -113.76 -0.08 0.48 0.04 -0.09 0.02 0.1 -0.11 9.79 -0.05
P-Value 0.09 0.12 0.00** 0.33 0.08 0.00** 0.04* 0.46 0.07 0.8
CMR Coefficient -160.48 -0.08 0.47 0.05 -0.09 0.01 0.11 -0.05 13.68 -0.1
P-Value 0.00** 0.1 0.00** 0.21 0.04* 0.00** 0.02* 0.69 0.00** 0.49
WPIG ONR Coefficient -189.01 -0.01 0.3 0.01 -0.17 0.02 0.14 0.03 15.81 0.09
P-Value 0.01** 0.9 0.04 0.9 0.00** 0.00** 0.02* 0.85 0.00** 0.63
DR Coefficient -119.07 0.07 0.44 -0.04 -0.16 0.02 0.17 -0.18 9.26 0.72
P-Value 0.21 0.33 0.02* 0.52 0.03* 0.00** 0.05 0.47 0.24 0.14
TB6 Coefficient -150.59 0.01 0.21 -0.05 -0.14 0.02 0.16 -0.1 12.42 0.3
P-Value 0.1 0.82 0.28 0.48 0.04* 0.00** 0.03* 0.67 0.1 0.25
CMR Coefficient -194.92 -0.01 0.3 0.01 -0.18 0.02 0.14 0.05 16.35 0.06
P-Value 0 0.91 0.04 0.83 0.00** 0.00** 0.02* 0.74 0.00** 0.77
WPIF ONR Coefficient -83.97 0.05 0.44 0.07 -0.35 0.02 0.04 0.01 8.01 0.00**
P-Value 0.31 0.39 0.01** 0.13 0.00** 0.00** 0.49 0.94 0.23 1
DR Coefficient -48.33 0.15 0.56 0.02 -0.3 0.02 0.02 -0.05 4.18 0.71
P-value 0.56 0.04* 0.00** 0.7 0.00** 0.00** 0.7 0.78 0.54 0.07
TB6 Coefficient -109.19 0.09 0.42 0.04 -0.32 0.02 0.04 0.05 9.77 0.29
P-value 0.21 0.12 0.02* 0.48 0.00** 0.00** 0.53 0.78 0.17 0.24
CMR Coefficient -86.18 0.05 0.43 0.08 -0.36 0.02 0.04 0 8.2 -0.03
P-value 0.31 0.38 0.02 0.14 0.00** 0.00** 0.51 1 0.24 0.89
WPINF ONR Coefficient -280.15 -0.02 0.25 -0.04 -0.08 0.01 0.22 0.1 22.73 0.17
P-value 0.00** 0.78 0.17 0.44 0.24 0.00** 0.01** 0.57 0.00** 0.45
DR Coefficient -222.78 0.02 0.36 -0.09 -0.09 0.02 0.28 -0.16 17.42 0.61
Conclusion
An important goal of the central bank of any country is to

control inflation and to achieve the price stability. For this purpose,
central bank uses different variables as policy tools. In recent years,
many of central banks adopted strategy of increasing interest rates
with the aim to prevent the economy from an increase in inflation.

There are various conflicting opinions on how the interest rate affects
the inflation. The popular opinion is that interest rate has negative
impact on inflation, however many economists have quite opposite
opinion and the empirical evidences found in literature are mixed.
Some evidence suggests net effect of interest rate on prices to be
insignificant.
In the current study we took the help of data to decide whether

the interest rate has increasing or decreasing effect on the price level.
To avoid missing variable bias all potential determinants of inflation
suggested by earlier studies were used, using general to specific
framework.
We found the insignificant effect of interest rate on inflation. These
finding verify the results of many earlier studies including Rehman
(2011.) the result presented in this study suggest that the interest rate
had been ineffective to control inflation. On the other hand, high
interest rate is a big hurdle in investment and employment
opportunities. Therefore, the State Bank should abandon the use of
interest rate to control inflation and the interest rate should be reduced
in order to promote employment opportunities.
Recommendation
Empirical evidences presented in the thesis and many of

earlier studies in Europe suggest that the use of interest rate as a
policy tool to cope with inflation is redundant because interest rates
have insignificant effect on inflation. The insignificant effect of interest
rate on inflation also implies a very huge reduction in output. Therefore
the use of tight monetary policy only results in decrease in the output
without any impact on prices. Therefore in order to avoid the loss of
output, state bank should avoid the use of tight monetary policy.
Furthermore the inflation should be handled with appropriate fiscal
policy instead of the monetary policy. The tax reduction on petroleum
product might be useful option for reduction in inflation.

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Research
Research The Key to Sustainability: Embracing Change . . .
KEY TO SUSTAINABILITY:
EMBRACING CHANGE
Murtaza Abbas1
Abstract
Change - a phenomena which is difficult to absorb and

even more difficult to implement. A change is often proves to be a
discomforting experience and leads to resistance, where a leader
plays the pivotal role of making this experience as seamless as it
can be by shared vision and an active support of Change Agents or
Change Manager. Resistance mainly comes from three sources –
technical resistance, political resistance and cultural resistance
where in order to implement change, conflict resolution becomes
the most important task to perform. Survey research method was
used covering aspects of 50 managers/representatives view point
from different layers of organization. The information gathered was
analyzed, cross examined and debated in the context of the situation
and environment in which the organization is operating. As the
change agents or change managers can be or cannot be managers,
it is important for the lead to communicate the reasons of change
very clearly and make people understand the concept of WIIFM
(Whats In It For Me). The findings suggest that those leaders who
develop new responses based on new information and technology
to achieve their goals and compete in the market are successful. If
the communication is clear and the question related to transition
requirement and challenges which organization will face in the
future have been properly communicated the relevant people can
play an effective role in the achievement of organizational goals.
Change management can be an uphill task if it is not managed in a
structured and sensitive manner. Change cannot be imposed rather
related people needs to be empowered so as to make efforts and find
solutions, that indeed requires supervision of a manager / leader.
Keywords: Embracing change, Feedback, Conflict

Management, Managing Fear
JEL Classification: Z 000
1- Siemens (Pakistan ) Engineering Co. Karachi Pakistan

The Key to Sustainability: Embracing Change . . . Research
Introduction
Denying the reality has destroyed so many organizations

and people than incompetence ever did. New realities require new
strategies, new response plan and proper execution; however, one
should not let go of the established and long standing rules and
principles that are tried and tested many a times before, instead these
should be re-tweaked to match, counter and comprehend the new
ground realities and proceed accordingly.
The systematic process of planning, initiating, realizing,

controlling, stabilizing and sustaining new and altered work activities
at the corporate, group and personal level is termed as Change
Management. Heldman (2005)2 says the sequence should always be:
1) Initiate, 2) Plan, 3) Baseline, 4) Execute. “If you arrange your project
management activities in this order, you’ve set the basis for a good
change management system.” (Heldman 2005, 333)
Change is seen as a competitive advantage in today’s world;
however change can be disquieting, hence, ‘Change Manager’ needs
to establish influence. Change should be understood, effectively and
timely communicated and managed in order to implement effectively.
It is a path which organizations follow for transitioning from current
state to a desired future position and, consequently take the
organization forward to achieve its objectives and remain competitive.
This study helps leaders and individuals to understand

Change as a subject from different perspectives as mentioned above
and in specific several ingredients of managing change which are as
follows;
Research Objective
 To identify reasons of change
2- Heldman, Kim (2005) Project management jumpstart. Hoboken, New

Jersey: John Wiley & Sons

 How employees’ resistance to change can be handled;

 Identify who will lead the change process (can only managers
be change agents?)
 Identify how organizations can remove employees’ fear and
uncertainty about Change;
 Understand the management’s actions and attitude to
change; and
For the purpose of this study a survey research method used

covering 50 managers/representatives from different layers of
organization who served as contact for this research and provided
their view point on the challenges faced by their organization while
implementing change. The summary of major responses based on
survey are enclosed as Annexure A. The information gathered was
analyzed, cross examined and debated in the context of the situation
and environment in which the organization is operating. The questions
in the survey were a mix of open-ended questions to give their
feedback and close-ended questions to give their rating on a scale of
satisfaction levels.
As the study puts the leaders (like CEOs, Country Managers)

and change agents (like managers who are trustworthy of CEOs,
Outside Consultant) in the limelight in terms of their part in
implementing change and discusses how they handle resistance to
change, one existing concern that rises well above the rest for the
change agents is the knack to achieve premeditated affiliation
(intended/ planned association). Achieving premeditated affiliation
demands accumulating worth to the entity by predicting, scheduling,
and acclimatizing to the transformations and adapting a hands-on
approach in administrating the transformation. Another issue which
is highlighted during the process of change implementation in
organizations is a difference between styles of thinking among people
of different categories (demographics), specially age groups. It is
generally observed that a relatively new graduate in an organization
introduces change and faces resistance from his old fellows. The

different styles of thinking of young and old people often become a

cause of confrontation in organizations which can have adverse effect
on their overall performance.
When Change becomes Undone

Change is a continuing and boundless course of institutional
existence. Even though this process is elucidated, envisaged, and
managed in different ways by individuals, institutional transformation
habitually doesn’t unfurl in conventional manners. (Van de Ven & Sun
2011, 58)3 Following are the six leadership and change criteria —
identifying the area where the change is required, creating awareness
about the need for change, suggesting ways to apply change,
executing the change, helping people in adjusting with the change
and dealing resistance to change.
It is very clear that a change, whether it is the outcome of an

external factor or internal, will become a cause of discomfort for some
individuals in the organization and thus invite resistance from them.
According to Cummings and Worley (2008)4, change creates deep
resistance in organizations and sometimes it becomes very difficult to
resolve conflicts which develop as a result of people’s reluctance to
transformation. “Organization change often implies a different
allocation of already scarce resources, such as capital, training budgets,
and good people.” (Cummings & Worley 2008, pg 166-167)5 They are
of the opinion that resistance to change in an organization comes
from three sources — technical resistance, political resistance and
cultural resistance. Therefore, Conflict resolution becomes the most
important task for change managers.
It is usually observed that people feel comfortable with their

old way of working. When a new method of working is introduced,
3- Van de Ven, Andrew H.; Sun, Kangyong (2011) Breakdowns in Implementing

Models of Organization Change. Academy of Management Perspectives, August,
Vol. 25 Issue 3, p58-74
4- Cu mmings, T homas G.; Christopher G. Worley (2 008 ) Orga nization
development & change, Publisher: Cengage Learning, Stamford, Connecticut.
5- Cummings, Thomas G.; Christopher G. Worley (2008) Organization
development & change, Publisher: Cengage Learning, Stamford, Connecticut

people following traditional ways do not accept it and this is called

technical resistance. Change in an organization faces political
resistance when it is affecting the positions of powerful stakeholder
for example people in senior position. Cultural resistance arises when
the change has an effect on the existing values and norms of the
organization.
The issue facing us today is how to manage change.

Organization development provides a renewal process that enables
managers to adapt their style and goals to meet the changing demands
of the environment. These changes - improving quality, increasing
innovation, adopting a customer orientation - are so fundamental
that they usually mean changing the organization’s culture.” (Brown
2006,94)
There are no two opinions that change has now become

essential not only for our lifestyles, but also for the success of our
businesses. The ways people live their lives in different manners
merely represent the migration from one way of looking at things to
another defined attitude in life and when put in perspective for how
different organizations behave, alterations in outer surroundings such
as wealth distributions systems, state affairs, communal or industrial
aspects demand an adjustment that is commonly termed as change,
that happens to be the sole assurance in the face of hardship. Hence,
individuals and organizations that welcome transformation with open
arms and beat others in accepting it, reap the rewards in the shape of
amplified output. According to Brown (2006), change has its impact
on all sections of the society.
Change for survival

Change is the need of business organizations for survival.
Auster, Wylie and Valente (2005)6 are of the opinion that people who
6- Auster, Ellen R.; Wylie, Krista K., Valente, Michael S. (2005) Strategic
organizational change. New York: Palgrave Macmillan

are willing to change are attracted by organizations. “So when new

folks are hired, ease back on trying to make them ‘fit in’, and instead
try to value what they bring to the table that is unique.” (Auster, Wet
a12005, 167)7
With the increasing involvement of the concept of change

and the progress envisaged, it is established that it has now become
a necessary element of one’s life. A simple example could be that if
there were no seasonal shifts, agricultural output would’ve been
affected and in turn would severely cause the way provisions are
supplied which would ultimately hit hard on the entire human race and
its existence. Similarly business organizations need change for their
survival. “We live in an arrangement of structures that are either inter
dependent on each other or are directly proportional i,e. they affect
one another nonetheless, change becomes a continuing and boundless
course of institutional existence. Even though this process is
elucidated, envisaged, and managed in different ways by individuals,
institutional transformation habitually doesn’t unfurl in conventional
manners”. (Van de Ven & Sun 2011, 58)8
Effective implementation is a must
Paton and McCalman (2008)9 have stressed need for the

effective implementation of change process for gaining desired results.
In this day and age adapting to change is witnessed more than ever. If
an organization wishes to stay in the race and brave out the competition
in the outside world, it must overcome the obstacles and hurdles in
7- Auster, Ellen R.; Wylie, Krista K., Valente, Michael S. (2005) Strategic
organizational change. New York: Palgrave Macmillan
8- Van de Ven, Andrew H.; Sun, Kangyong (2011) Breakdowns in
Implementing Models of Organization Change. Academy of Management
Perspectives, August, Vol. 25 Issue 3, p58-74
9- Paton Robert A.; Paton, Rob; McCalman, James (2008) Change Management:
A Guide to Effective Implementation. London: SAGE Pu blications Ltd

between and forge ahead and embrace latest technologies and trends
to compete with their contemporaries.
We have deduced from our research that people are causing

resistance to change and these are the very individuals that play a
major part in tackling the reluctance to transformation. Should a
business want to implement new practices and throw a few new
theories in to practice; a lot depends on how it will be received by the
said business’ employees and the management. It is often witnessed
that some great ideas are often rejected or not implemented at all
because the ‘People Factor’ came in the way.
This entire organized method of preparation, commencing,

recognizing, calculating, evening out and supporting novel and
untouched actions at the commercial, faction and individual point is
phrased as change management. A term change management
represents three diverse features — adapting to change, controlling
change, and effecting change. Being ahead of the game and not waiting
till last is a guarantee one must provide to enjoy full benefits. Change
management doesn’t only mean merely implementing something new,
it is the implementation of new rules and practices to deal with the
changes in business and profit from these changing opportunities.
As for an individual, embracing new methodologies and lifestyles
bring about improvements in the way they look at the world which in
turn boost their psychological aspects as well as physical and social
characteristics. Though team work is necessary for the success of
change in an organization, individual performance of a change leader
also plays a very important role. Therefore, it would not be wrong to
say that for an individual, the implementation of change largely
depends on how that person reacted and responded to the change in
the past or how they embrace it in the present or what their reaction
would be in the future.
Oreg (2006) also classified how different people approach

handling change in three different ways — affective component,

cognitive component and behavioral component. Affective component

denotes the feelings of an individual towards the change; cognitive
component is where how an individual rationally believes the change
and behavioral component shows an individual’s reaction with respect
to the change. The achievement of interim and durable targets and
intentions are greatly dependent on the change in their behavior.
Oreg (2006) emphasize that framework and conditional

understanding are of enormous significance for initiators and
administrators who commence a change practice. Change implementers
who assess the situation well and dig deep in to ground realities while
applying the process of change are tipped to be more successful in
carrying it out effectively. It is considered directly proportional to
what change strategies will be selected. Individuals and organizations
behave differently in various circumstances and situations. To analyze
correctly and pin point the matters of attention and react according to
the situation helps implement the right change policies at the right
time. Having said that, to achieve this, one has to read the situation
well and it’s not always easy to achieve that with clarity and objectivity.
A variety of surveys and interviews were conducted depicting

backgrounds with varying lengths and mindsets. It came out, that
participants when put thru the process of change management reacted
differently to the change due to various reasons, especially when
resisting the change. After all, the very idea of bring about and
implementing change process demands that the participant is taken
out of its comfort zone hence the resistance. Fear factor is on plays a
major part for people to be reluctant of change; it’s the uncertainty of
the new and the doubt of how things will turn out. Therefore, reluctance
can be defined as that feeling amongst individuals that the change
might bring about something bad or adverse. It could be a real threat
or it could just turn out to be a mere perception.
There is a Formula developed by Richard Beckhard and David

Gleicher called as Gleicher’s Formula. This Formula demonstrates that

the blend of institutional discontent, future vision and the likelihood

of instant, strategic deed have to be better than the confrontation
inside the organization for occurrence of consequential
transformations. Lussier, Robert N. (2011)10says there are four phases
of the change practice: denial, resistance, exploration, and
commitment. We have observed that in the initial period people are in
the phase of denial. The strategy to this problem is “buy in” through
proper communication. Atleast in the first case “the buy in” of the
opinion leaders is vital to success. When going through the phase of
resistance, an individual typically experiences responses and feelings
of annoyance, failure and upset, inflexibility, charging others and
being unreasonable. This being so as people feel as if they are stuck
in a situation and there is no way out of it. In this case people mostly
are ignorant about their local surroundings and become self-centric.
One little achievement and it is celebrated overly in these
circumstances.
A fine change management practice thus calls for a lucid

explanation of resources subsequent to the method of unfreeze, move
and freeze. Unfreeze is the phase where the partakers are to unfreeze
themselves from their existing practice then shift in the direction of
the latest method and then freeze themselves on the fresh process
once the execution course is finished. Hence, for a triumphant
changeover the accurate means are necessary to be acknowledged.
People more often than not get perplexed in recognizing their resources
and ends while developing the requisite changes.
Strategy, structure, technology and people
Performance of an organization is heavily depended on its

strategy, structure, technology and people. Its efficiency in fact is
the direct outcome of the performance of these four areas. Therefore,
it would not be wrong to say that if we want to improve the performance
10- Lussier, Robert N. (2008) Management Fundamentals: Concepts,

Applications, Skill Development, Publisher: Cengage Learning, Stamford,
Connecticut

of the organization, we need to take measures to improve the efficiency

of organization’s strategy, structure, technology and people.
Since people are the input to almost all outputs, therefore, there
importance is paramount and critical to success of all strategies.
Howsoever, efficient the strategies, people who execute those
strategies actually hold the key to its success. It is for the same reason
that for any change to be recognized accepted and implemented in the
organization; need to be cognizant of the people issues that it may
entail.
A mistake managers often do is that they take— structure,

technology and people — as separate components and fail to
implement the change successfully. Taking any of these factors in
isolation always produce bad results. Thus, we can say that for the
success of change, managers need to have a systematic point of view
in which organizations could give equal importance to all these areas.
According to Mosley, Pietri and Jr Mosley (2010) 11

improvement in the performance of an organization is the direct result
of its strategy of giving importance to its structure, technology and
people. “In general, the desired outcome is either improved employee
behavior or activities that will result in improved performance.
Five Primal Challenges in Implementation of Change Management
1.Importance of communication
When it comes down to smooth penetration of change in

organization, communication is often the most important tool. It is not
important how loud it is communicated but it is important how
effectively it is communicated. For example, if the management wisely
communicates with the employees in order to find out their feedback
11 - Mosley, Donald C.; Pau l H. Pietri; Jr Mosley (201 0) Supervisory

Ma nagement, Pu blisher: Cengage Learning, Stamford, Connecticut

regarding implementing a change management program then the

resistance to the change can be significantly brought down since the
employees were communicated properly.
Another benefit of constant communications is that it eradicates

any misunderstandings to arise and nips any misconceptions right in
the bud and it helps create a more open and friendly environment
which paves the way for good change management practices. Gustin
(2007)12 says a good change management strategy must includes
communication, discussion and involvement. “In any business
setting, a good change management program must include
communication. Communication is at the core of the change
management program. The change itself should be communicated to
the tenant/occupant/employee along with the hows, whys and
wherefores.” (Gustin 2007, 209)
2.Managing Fear
Fear is one of the most important barriers to change. When a

change is introduced people fear that it can affect their positions and
sometime they fear that they can lose their jobs. Because of the fear
factor, it is always suggested that change implementation should be
careful and incremental where employees could find themselves
involved in the process of change. When change is introduced
employees fear that it entails some dangers for them and they offer
resistance to it. Because change is imposed top-down, resistance to
it comes in the same way. In other words top executives in organization
who are not the part of the strategy will be the first to offer resistance
to change. The reason is that they will fear that change will affect
their positions. Because top executives usually have an influence on
their subordinates, they can create an environment in which everyone
in the organization will fear that change has some dangers for them.
12- Gustin, Joseph F. (2007) Safety Management: A Guide for Facility Managers.
New York: The Fairmont Press, Inc.

The sense of insecurity created among employees because of poorly

communicated change compels them to go against change. Another
important aspect is that people have a fear of failure. They do not feel
confidant that they would not be able to transform themselves for
meeting the challenge of change. In this situation they show the desire
to cling to the status quo.
According to Hickman (2009)13, a number of employees oppose

change because of the fear factors. He lists the following reasons
which become the basis of employees’ reluctance to accept change:
lack of belief, a thought that change is uncalled for, thought that the
change is not viable, financial pressure, relative soaring expenses,
fright of individual collapse, loss of standing and control, threat to
morals and ethics, dislike of intrusion. (Hickman 2009, pg 87)14
3.Retention of Employees
Among the many other challenges organizations facing today

one is retention of employees. And for organizations which are
involved in the businesses of high technology the issue of employees’
retention becomes more important. The tussle between Google Inc.
and Microsoft Corporation over attracting each other employees in
recent years is an example.
The shortage of highly skilled and technologically advanced

people and the high costs associated with worker turnover have it a
daunting task for human resource managers that how to attract and
retain employees. The Karachi-based IT firm, Axact, is an example in
13-Hickman, Gill Robinson (2 009) Leading Change in Mu ltiple Contexts:

Concepts and Practices in Organizational, Community, Political, Social, and
Global Change Settings, Publisher: SAGE, Thousand Oaks, California
14-Hickman, Gill Robinson (2 009) Leading Change in Mu ltiple Contexts:
Concepts and Practices in Organizational, Community, Political, Social, and
Global Change Settings, Publisher: SAGE, Thousand Oaks, California

Pakistan where retention of employees has always been an issue for

the management since the company was founded in 1997.
Today’s competitive business environment has made the issue

of employees’ retention very important for organizations and it is
generally observed that now organizations invest heavily on their
human resource departments to design such working condition which
could attract skilled working force. For doing so organizations need
to take in account of a number of factors. For example, money is the
number one point of attraction and also major cause for which people
join or leave an organization. This is the reason it is considered the
most effective human resource tool to keep good employees. If the
people are underpaid they will definitely look for other opportunities.
But if an organization is paying its employees close to the competitive
level, it has little chances of losing its good people.
Another important aspect in the retention of employees is

recruiting right people. It would be to say wrong that recruiting has
nothing to do with retention. In a hurry to hire people for a particular
project, human resource managers often make mistake in recruiting
workers who, in fact, do not fulfill the criteria required for the vacant
position. Therefore, human resource managers should keep in mind
that right hiring can increase retention.
Providing training or designing programs for employees that

could help them to improve their professional capabilities can go a
long way in improving retention of employees. But if organizations
do no care for other things in this training strategy, they just train
people for other employers. For example, an individual who has
improved his professional capabilities by taking part in an
organizational training program but is not being paid according to his
new skills will definitely look for other opportunities.

4.One Breakthrough is Important

Success at initial stage of the change introduction becomes a
base of the future successes. Therefore it is important to have one
breakthrough during the initial stages. The breakthrough can come in
different shape such as increased productivity or profitability. It is
obvious that the initial stages of change implementation are stressful
for both management and employees and expecting a breakthrough
on these stages is difficult.
Having a breakthrough in initial stages of change
implementation is important for giving a boost to the confidence of
both managers and employees. According to Anderson (2010),
organizations can have breakthroughs in the initial stages of change
implementation by giving special attention to human potential. He
says better change processes enable people to contribute more openly.
“Breakthroughs can occur in your culture and its ability to catalyze
great performance in your people: enhanced commitment to service,
more innovation and learning, more openness and authenticity, more
alignment, and dedication to enterprise success.” (Anderson 2010, pg
17)15
5.Conflict Management
Conflicts which are considered inevitable among people are
part of organizational environment. Because of rapidly changing
business environment conflict management has now become a
fascinating topic for managers. We have discussed in this chapter
earlier that when change is introduced in an organization, it invites
resistance from people. Managing conflicting personalities is the most
important task of managers who are involved in the change processes.
In organizations, conflict is a natural phenomenon which
develops whenever some individuals and groups work together for
the achievement of a particular goal. It happens when people have
15- Anderson, Dean; Linda S. Ackerman-Anderson (2001) Beyond Change

Management: Advanced Strategies for Today’s Transformational Leaders,
Publisher: John Wiley and Sons

different point of views on a particular subject or have different

backgrounds, beliefs and values.
In the modern business environment, conflict resolution has
become a very important subject and has been thoroughly
investigated by manager and psychologists. Great attention was given
to the scientific investigation of organizational conflicts in the last 20
years of 20th century. According to Rahim (2010) 31, conflict influences
the performance of people and making strategies for conflict
resolution has become necessary for the success. “Over the years
the phenomena relating to conflict have been investigated by the
economists, historians, novelists, philosophers, political scientists,
sociologists, psychologists, and theologians; and biologists have
investigated the ‘struggle for existence’ by species of differing genetic
inheritance.” (Rahim 2010,pg1)16
Conclusion
Ask yourself these clinical questions before embarking on
implementing an organizational change across your place of work:
What are our objectives for implementing this change, why are we
going ahead with this, and how and when will we know that what we
wanted to achieve has been accomplished successfully? Who this
change will directly affect, and what will be their reaction to it? What
portion of this change can be accomplished by our own individual
efforts, and at what stages and parts we might need help from others?
All these questions and aspects strongly relate to both personal and
organizational change.
-Transformation Needs Involvement – It may not be Imposed
Change cannot be imposed; it’s as simple as that. People need
to be empowered to make their own effort and find out solutions out
of their own consciousness and that is of course with the help of
managers as they support them and facilitate them with anything
they need as well as back up from the leadership and executives that
16- Rahim, M. Afzalur (2010) Managing Conflict in Organizations, Publisher:

Transaction Publishers, Piscataway, New Jersey

would give them courage to carry out the task and make the process
ever more easier.
-Don’t appreciate too soon or too late

Appreciate the ones who perform but keep telling them to forge
forward – be consistent – reporting progress at every stage – always
keep in mind and in black and white what you’ve achieved and what is
yet to be accomplished.
-Make it Stick
Don’t let it slip when you’re almost there. Hire new recruits,
show them how it’s done, encourage new change torch bearers. Make
that change that you’ve brought about a constant feature of your
culture.
-Leadership is vital to success

Effective, approachable and friendly leadership is must for the
success of change because it’s never easy managing change. Doesn’t
matter where the change agent is situated in the hierarchy, it is
imperative that a set standard of output is expected of that individual
and it should be their responsibility to motivate their subordinates
and others around them. A leader should posses certain leadership
qualities for the change implementation program to be successful.
In conclusion it would not be wrong to say that for staying

competitive in today’s business environment, organizations need to
introduce change and for its successful implementation they need a
strong team and strong leadership. Leaders and managers should
acknowledge that communities and organizations are made up of
people. It is mostly people who are at the heart of the change process.
Therefore, change mangers should be able to ensure that their vision
is shared by all stakeholders. Those involved and affected by the
change should be able to understand the context of the change and
they should also be clear of the need and advantages of the change.

References
Auster, Ellen R.; Wylie, Krista K., Valente, Michael S. (2005) Strategic
organizational change. New York
Cengage Learning Franken, Arnoud; Edwards, Chris; Lambert, Rob.
(2009) Executing Strategic Change: Understanding the Critical
Management Elements that Lead to Success. California
Management Review, Spring, Vol. 51 Issue 3, p49-73Gustin, Joseph
F. (2007) Safety Management: A Guide for Facility Managers.
New York
Cengage Learning Oreg, Shaul (2003) Resistance to change:
Developing an individual differences measure.
Claudine; Hisrich, Robert D.; Roche, Frank W. (2010) Change
Management through Entrepreneurship in Public Sector
Enterprises. Journal of Developmental Entrepreneurship,
Dec2010, Vol. 15 Issue 4, p415-437
Earthscan Van de Ven, Andrew H.; Sun, Kangyong (2011) Breakdowns
in Implementing Models of Organization Change. Academy of
Management Perspectives, August, Vol. 25 Issue 3, p58-74
John Wiley & Sons Jeffers, Jennifer (2010) Climate Change and the
Arctic: Adapting to Changes in Fisheries Stocks and Governance
Regimes. Ecology Law Quarterly, 2010, Vol. 37 Issue 3, p917-977,
61pJournal of Applied Psychology, Vol. 88, No. 4. (August), pp.
680-693.Kearney
Kondalkar, V.G. (2010) Organization Effectiveness and Change
Management, New Delhi, PHI Learning Kreitner
McGraw-Hill/Irwin Lussier, Robert N. (2011) Management
Fundamentals: Concepts, Applications, Skill Development.
Stamford, Connecticut
Oreg, Shaul (2006) Personality, context, and resistance to
organizational change. European Journal of Work &
Organizational Psychology, Vol. 15, No. 1. (March), pp. 73-101
Paton Robert A.; Paton, Rob; McCalman, James (2008) Change
Management: A Guide to Effective Implementation. London:
SAGE Publications Ltd

Paton Robert A.; Paton, Rob; McCalman, James (2008) Change

Management: A Guide to Effective Implementation. London SAGE
Publications LtdPiderit
Sandy Kristin (2000) Rethinking Resistance and Recognizing
Ambivalence: A Multidimensional View of Attitudes toward an
Organizational Change. The Academy of Management Review.
Vol. 25, No. 4 (October), pp. 783-794

Annexure A
SUMMARY OF MAJOR RESPONSES OF SURVEY CONDUCTED
I have prepared a questionnaire, based on which Survey has been

conducted covering 50 managers / participants. The major responses
of the participants of survey summarized below:
1. Kindly share your understanding / views about Change

Management:
 It is a path which organizations follow for transitioning from

current state to a desired future position and, consequently
take the organization forward to achieve its objectives and
remain competitive.
 A term change management represents three diverse features
— adapting to change, controlling change, and effecting
change.
 Change management doesn’t only mean merely implementing
something new, it is the implementation of new rules and
practices to deal with the changes in business and profit
from these changing opportunities.
 Life Blood of Organizations
 Success depends on Change is managed.
 Process to modify processes and ways of doing business
according to the emerging needs and requirements.
2. Do you think change is necessary for the success of an

organization? And Why?
 Change has now become essential for our lifestyles, but

also for the success of our businesses. The ways people
live their lives in different manners merely represent the
migration from one way of looking at things to another
defined attitude in life and when put in perspective for how
different organizations behave, alterations in outer
surroundings such as wealth distributions systems, state
affairs, communal or industrial aspects demand an
adjustment that is commonly termed as change, that happens
to be the sole assurance in the face of hardship.

 Leaders who develop new responses based on new

information and technology to achieve their goals and
compete in the market are successful.
 Organizations which can anticipate change before time and
quickly adopt it can survive in long term.
 It is the time of continuous innovation. every business has
to come up with new ideas, newer ways of managing their
business, doing their day to day tasks.
 In order to gain competitive advantage it is conducive to
innovate constantly.
 A change is required to improve Globalization, in turn, is
being driven by broad powerful set of forces associated with
technological change, international economic integration,
domestic market maturation within the more developed
countries, & the collapse of the world wide communism.
 In order to streamline operations of company in this fast
moving environment, change is a necessity.
3. What role a manager has in the success of change

implementation and how do you differentiate with change
agents.
 Change agent and a manager perform almost the same duties.

A manager’s role is to compose the daily activities in such a
manner that the flow of organization from its present state to
an advanced is with very few bumps. The change agent is
however always forward looking and is bringing about the
change and the manager is managing that change.
 It is considered directly proportional to what change

strategies will be selected. Individuals and organizations
behave differently in various circumstances and situations.
To analyze correctly the matters of attention and react
according to the situation helps implement the right change
policies at the right time. Having said that, to achieve this,
one has to read the situation well and it’s not always easy to
achieve that with clarity and objectivity what will be the role

of change manager and what has to be done by change

agents / change champions.
 Key to success of change implementation, only if people

see their managers happily adopting the change & are
positively vocal about the same, they will feel & understand
the need of change.
 Change agents can be or cannot be a manager but they are

who champions the new idea.
 To help employees in understanding the change management

process in steps, continuous liaison required, in time
feedback, corporate objectives remains on top. Give time
frame to gauge the performance.
 A manager’s role is to be in control of the whole change

process i.e. from the time change is planned to its final
implementation. He should be looking at the BIG picture of
the change process and should be monitoring the progress
of the change process to bring about the desired results.
 Manager has to play the pivotal role in change

implementation and should facilitate the process of this
change.
 Change Agent is more towards a Leadership role than a

simple Manager.
 Manager is an advocate which translates the change into

positive or negative. If the manager maintains open
communication and makes sure that the change is perceived
positively by his subordinates the transition is smoother.
 Manager should change his role in to Leader while the

manger has certain role to play, a leader has a role to play for
introducing a change (this is the change agent).

 Manager does: Planning & Budgeting; Organizing & staffing,

Controlling & problem solving all these to result in degree of
predictability & order & the potential to consistently produce
the short term results expected by stakeholders.
 Leader: Establishes direction, align people, motivates and

inspires to result in change to a dramatic degree & has the
potential to produce extremely useful change.
 Change agent would propagate the change management.
4. Introduction of a change in an organization invites resistance

from its employees: however small or large, please state if
you agree.
 Agreed. It is very clear that a change, whether it is the outcome

of an external factor or internal, will become a cause of
discomfort for some individuals in the organization and thus
invite resistance from them.
 Yes I agree. When a new method of working is introduced,
people following traditional ways do not accept it and this is
called technical resistance. Change in an organization faces
political resistance when it is affecting the positions of
powerful stakeholder for example people in senior position.
Cultural resistance arises when the change has an effect on
the existing values and norms of the organization.
 Change & resistance are always together. No matter even if
employees understand the benefits of change right from the
beginning, there will always be some degree of resistance
primarily because it requires something different to be done.
 As the change is quite stressful, resistance is quite normal in
the change process.
 Change process to be translated into a simple way so
everyone could understand.
 Obviously employees resist change because everyone
becomes comfortable in doing what they do on a Daily basis.
 Yes because many employees are happy in their comfort
zones and do not want to get out of it.

 Resistance to change appears definitely at all levels of

management.
5. In your opinion what are the possible reasons of the

employees’ resistance to change:
 It is usually observed that people feel comfortable with their

old way of working. When a new method of working is
introduced, people following traditional ways do not accept
it and this is called technical resistance. Change in an
organization faces political resistance when it is affecting
the positions of powerful stakeholder for example people in
senior position. Cultural resistance arises when the change
has an effect on the existing values and norms of the
organization.
 We have observed that in the initial period people are in the
phase of denial. The strategy to this problem is “buy in”
through proper communication. Atleast in the first case “the
buy in” of the opinion leaders is vital to success. When
going through the phase of resistance, an individual typically
experiences responses and feelings of annoyance, failure
and upset, inflexibility, charging others and being
unreasonable. This being so as people feel as if they are
stuck in a situation and there is no way out of it. In this case
people mostly are ignorant about their local surroundings
and become self-centric. One little achievement and it is
celebrated overly in these circumstances.
 The reason is that they will fear that change will affect their
positions. Because top executives usually have an influence
on their subordinates, they can create an environment in
which everyone in the organization will fear that change has
some dangers for them.
6. What are the three major concerns of employee towards

change?

 Fear that change will affect their positions. Because top

executives usually have an influence on their subordinates,
they can create an environment in which everyone in the
organization will fear that change has some dangers for them.
 Fear of failure. They do not feel confidant that they would
not be able to transform themselves for meeting the challenge
of change. In this situation they show the desire to cling to
the status quo.
7. How can the problem of employees’ resistance to change be

tackled in different ways:
 Leaders and managers should acknowledge that communities

and organizations are made up of people. It is mostly people
who are at the heart of the change process. Therefore, change
mangers should be able to ensure that their vision is shared
by all stakeholders.
8. When your organization last introduced a transformational

change: was it coming out of internal reasons or external?
INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL
 No transformational change should be triggered just because

of internal reasons. In some organizations decisions are
customer centric and all internal changes are also to serve
customers in a better manner.
 1) Internal : performance effectiveness and productivity 2)
External : Globalization of markets and competition
INTERNAL REASONS
 The change was introduced to cater to internal growth of the

company.

9. What are the key success factors in gauging change

implementation?
 Effective, approachable and friendly leadership is must for

the success of change because it’s never easy managing
change. Doesn’t matter where the change agent is situated
in the hierarchy, it is imperative that a set standard of output
is expected of that individual and it should be their
responsibility to motivate their subordinates and others
around them. A leader should posses certain leadership
qualities for the change implementation program to be
successful.
10. Do you think your organization was successful in

implementing the change?
 I believe my organization is continuously

implementing & evolving change. To me one of the key
reasons for J&J’s survival over 120 years is its capability
to adopt & implement change.
 It is still in process so I can’t comment much but so
far it looks like that we are “getting there”.
 I reckon it is getting success gradually as depicted
by the KPIs, however the change is in its initial stages
11. How did the management deal with the resistance from
employees in the implementation of change?
 Management communication is the key, with the employees

in order to find out their feedback regarding implementing a
change management program then the resistance to the
change can be significantly brought down since the
employees were communicated properly.

ANSWERS
I have
QUESTİONS Yes no idea No
Is chang e essen tial for organizational

1 success? 80% 10% 10%
2 Can resistance to chan ge be managed ? 100% 0% 0%
Can change be managed effectively

3 with out change agents? 55% 10% 35%
Does communication play a vital role

4 in the “change process”? 68% 10% 22%
Do leadership traits affect th e change

5 management process? 60% 24% 16%

Research
Research Effect of Organizational Ethics . . .
EFFECT OF ORGANIZATIONAL
ETHICS ON JOB SATISFACTION
OF NON-LIFE INSURANCE
EMPLOYEES IN PAKISTAN
Mehrukh Salman1 & Ali Taimur Baig2
Abstract
In this study, a link between job satisfaction and top

management’s support for ethical behavior, ethical climate and
association between career success and ethical behavior has been
probed. For this reason, perceptions of managers of non-life
insurance sector have been found out to examine the link between
organizational ethics and job satisfaction. Overall, the results
depicted that top management’s support for ethical behavior has
no link with job satisfaction which is consistent with the findings
of (Visweswaran et al., 1998).
Moreover, ethical climate also has no direct link with job

satisfaction. However; it is indirectly linked towards Job
satisfaction via ethical behavior and career success association.
Keywords: Job satisfaction, insurance companies, ethical climate,

organizational ethics, top management’s support for ethical
behavior , association between ethical behavior and career success
JEL Classification: G 220
1-2. Dept of Business, Lahore School of Economics, Lahore Pakistan

Effect of Organizational Ethics . . . Research
1.Introduction
1.1 An Overview of the topic
Organizational ethics can have considerable impact on an

enterprise’s performance. A significant number of organizations are
engaging in ethical practices to ensure that a just environment prevails.
Ethical codes tend to work more effectively when incorporated within
the organization and are readily acceptable by the employees (Stevens,
1999).Companies are expected to devise code of conduct which will
not only enable them to achieve an ethical climate but also creates a
win-win situation for all the stakeholders. Those days are long gone
when any unethical behavior was tolerated and issues were brushed
under the carpet. But the million dollar question is that how the
companies can ensure implementation of their code of conduct in a
rightful manner. Organizational ethics, indeed, can put heavy weight
on the shoulder of top managers; it is expected that these managers
should make ethics a priority. A fake ethical program might only serve
window dressing purposes but can potentially cause more damage
than benefit. Employees are directly affected by the organizational
climate that prevails within an organization (Viswesvaran and
Deshpande, 1996). Various studies have also proved that dissatisfied
employees have the tendency to leave the organization for good.
Ethical situations in business are becoming increasingly more complex,
involving issues such as societal expectations, fair competition, legal
protection and rights, and social responsibilities.(Koh and Boo, 2001).
So it is imperative for the top brass of the company to ensure that their
company follows the ethical code of conduct to conform to the societal
expectations. In the past researchers have tried to determine the factors
that affect the ethical behavior. Among these determinants, personal
attributes, employment background, values and education referent
group caught the attention of researchers and were the ones subjected
to frequent study.
1.2 Study Objectives

The objective of this research was to determine the effect of
organizational ethics on job satisfaction amongst managers of
Insurance companies in Pakistan. Insurance industry, besides being,
relatively small as compared to other sectors in Pakistan, is also

considered as one of the neglected sectors of Pakistan. Little or no

management related research has been conducted to date. According
to the statistics of State Bank of Pakistan, there are 4 public sector
and 55 private sector insurance companies operating in Pakistan.
This study helps unravel the factors that are potentially affecting the
job satisfaction of employees of insurance companies in Pakistan
and could also pave way for future research.
1.3 Research Questions:

This study concentrated on the following questions:
1. Does ethical climate affect the employee’s job satisfaction in
insurance companies of Pakistan?
2. Does top management’s support influence the ethical behavior
of its employees?
3. Does association between ethical behavior and career success
affect job satisfaction?
4. Does satisfaction level of employees vary from city to city?
1.4 Definitions of Job Satisfaction over the years:

Job Satisfaction has been defined and interpreted in different
aspects by various researchers .The term job satisfaction caught the
eyes of researchers since the advent of the 20th century. The earliest
work recorded in this regard was by (Taylor, 1911)whose work laid the
cornerstone for future studies. The Hawthorne studies were the first
research carrying practical evidence of job satisfaction. Hawthorne
studies were inspired by Taylor. As events unfolded, there was a shift
in Hawthorne studies from scientific management to behavioral
management. According to Doctor Robert Hoppock , a pioneer in the
field of vocational guidance, job satisfaction was “ any combination
of psychological , physiological and environmental circumstances
that cause a person truthfully to say I am satisfied with my job”
(Hoppock, 1935).Hence, it was established in the early phase of job
satisfaction research that multiple exogenous and endogenous factors
play pivotal role in job satisfaction However, the most noted definition
is the one penned by (Locke, 1976)according to him “job satisfaction
is a pleasurable or positive emotional state resulting from the appraisal
of one’s job or job experiences.”Vroom, (1982) defined job satisfaction
as “workers emotional orientation toward their current job roles.
Weiss, (2002) defined it as “a positive (or negative) evaluative

judgment one makes about one’s job or job situation”. More recently,
Daneshfard, Rahimi, & Damirchi, (2011) described job satisfaction as
“how content an individual is with his or her job”. Haroon, Zaman, &
Rehman, (2012)defined Job satisfaction as “an enjoyable emotional
state resulting from the judgment of one’s job; a sentimental response
to one’s job; and an approach towards one’s job”.
1.5 Facets of Job Satisfaction:
There are various facets of Job Satisfaction as determined by Smith,

Kendall, & Hulin, (1969)
Pay Satisfaction:
Pay satisfaction is defined as “the amount of overall positive affect
(or feelings) individuals have toward pay” (Miceli and Lane, 1991).
Pay plays a vital role in determining composite job satisfaction
(Oshagbemi and Hickson, 2002). It indicates that an employee’s
satisfaction can be derived from the pay that he receives. It clearly
indicates that pay satisfaction weighs the greatest when determining
one’s job’s satisfaction.
Promotion Satisfaction:
Moving up in the ranks to a designation, which is recognized by
having higher status, greater respect or even greater pay Jackson and
Schuler, (2000).According to Judge and Klinger, (2008), Pay and
promotion are considered extrinsic factors
Supervision Satisfaction:
Employees desire to work under supervisors who are competent,
selfless and honest. (Henne and Locke, 1985). Supervision, Co-worker
and Work satisfaction are considered as intrinsic factors (Judge and
Klinger, 2008).
Co-Workers Satisfaction:
Employees associate themselves with other employees who share
similar set of values and facilitate in getting the job done. (Henne and
Locke, 1985).

Work Satisfaction
According to Adam, (1965), right balance should be achieved between
the work performed by employee and the reimbursement he receives
for getting the job done; inability to do so will result in job
dissatisfaction. Employees prefer working in environment that is
conducive to job satisfaction. Furthermore, employees want to work
in organizations that admire and respect them for their values.
1.6 Theories:
The link between organizational ethics and job satisfaction is

explained by the following theories:
1)Organizational Justice Theory
2)Cognitive Dissonance Theory
Organizational Justice Theory

According to Organizational Justice theory, “Justice Perceptions of
employees influence their job attitudes and organizational outcomes”.
Further, organizational justice theory is bifurcated into distributive
justice and procedural justice. Distributive justice refers to the
impartiality by top managers in context of pay, promotion and other
organizational outcomes. On the other hand, procedural justice focuses
on how managerial decisions are made. Both distributive justice and
procedural justice play a significant role in context to job satisfaction
(Koh and Boo, 2001).
Cognitive Dissonance Theory

According to this theory, individuals try hard to reduce dissonance
in their environment. If the dissonance persists than the individual
will continue to be dissatisfied with the situation (Visweswaran,
Deshpande, & Joseph, 1998). Thus, it is significant to mention that
there will be dissonance if there is discrepancy in employee’s
perception about organization ethical climate, career success and
support of top brass of the company for ethical behavior.

2.Literature Review
2.1 Job Satisfaction
Weiss, (2002) defined job satisfaction as “a positive (or negative)

evaluative judgment one makes about one’s job or job situation”. Job
satisfaction has been the subject of research over the past few decades.
It is also one of the most intricate subject matter that supervisors are
facing when it comes to managing their sub-ordinates. Employee’s
perception about the nature of work can be pivotal for job satisfaction.
Job Satisfaction can be composed of various factors. The ones that
are a part of Minnesota Satisfaction Questionnaire are Co-workers,
Achievement, Activity, Advancement, Authority, Company Policies,
Compensation, Moral Values, Creativity, Independence, Security, Social
Service, Social status, Recognition, Responsibility, Supervision –
Human Relations, Supervision – Technical, Variety and Working
condition (Aziri, 2011). A research conducted to determine the
relationship between job satisfaction and organizational culture clearly
manifested the presence of relationship between these aforementioned
variables (Semapane, Reiger, & Roodt, 2002). Job satisfaction of
individuals having jobs with career prospects is higher and their returns
are also significantly higher (Theodossiu and Zangeladis, 2009).
Besides organization culture, Job Satisfaction is also considered a
factor of labor productivity besides impacting turnout and stability
(Renu and Natarajan, 2011).
2.2 Job Satisfaction and Insurance Companies:
Role of hierarchy and stress on employee’s satisfaction in insurance

company of Chandigarh, India was studied by. Renu and Natarajan,
(2011).The researchers stressed on the point that people play pivotal
role in making or breaking an organization. Therefore, satisfaction of
employees is of great essence and is directly related with the growth
of an industry. Despite, motivation and job satisfaction being two
distinct terms, they are linked. Role is a reflection of person’s status in
the system. Role ambiguity comes into play when roles are not defined
properly or are inadequate. Presence of role conflict and role ambiguity
will result in job dissatisfaction. Furthermore, organizational
commitment will dwindle as a result of this. The results indicated that
role stress has no significant correlation with job satisfaction which

might be due to the fact that employees under stress tend to work
harder resulting in job satisfaction. Moreover, the correlation between
job satisfaction and role of hierarchy was moderate and positive.
Examination of extent of job satisfaction on private and public sector

employees of Indian Punjab depicted that private and public sector
employees are satisfied by entirely different set of variables.
Employees in public sector opined that they are not given enough
training opportunities. Furthermore , it was determined that as far as
income is concerned, private sector employees are more satisfied
with their jobs than the public sector employees (Kaur, 2012).
(Anita, 2012)Studied the impact of job satisfaction on one of the

booming sector of India, insurance. To determine the results, an
exploratory and descriptive research was conducted on top ten
insurance companies of Lucknow. The questionnaires were
administered to 150 respondents. Majority of the respondents were
from sales department. Results indicated that work culture is the most
significant factor in insurance sector that impacts employee’s job
satisfaction level. Pay for performance and growth and recognition
also emerged as other factors that have high level impact on job
satisfaction of insurance employees.
According to Wang, Lee, and Ho, (2012),Insurance sector in Taiwan

is saturated with dozens of companies. In current situation it is an
uphill task for the companies to retain existing employees. The
researcher stressed that the greater the extent of stay of an employee
in a company, the greater will be his job satisfaction. The results
depicted that job satisfaction enhances the operating performance of
insurance companies which deals specifically with property. A
negative relationship was observed between turnover intention and
operating performance. Poor reliability could have possibly marred
the result.
2.3 Ethical Climate:
Victor and Cullen (1987)defined ethical climate as the “shared

perceptions of what is ethically correct behavior and how ethical
issues should be handled within an organization”. A two dimensional
theoretical typology was developed comprising ethical criterion and

locus of analysis. The foundation of this multidimensional construct

was laid by sociological and psychological theories. Furthermore, they
classified ethical climate into three major categories: Benevolence,
egoism and principles and linked these categories with Kohlberg’s
model of cognitive moral development. Egoistic ethical climate refers
to the climate that prevails in an organization with employees being
self-centered and working for self-interest. Benevolent ethical climate
refers to the altruistic and cooperative environment that exists within
an organization. Employees conforming to rules and regulations that
are formulated by the top management give rise to principled climate.
Besides, role of leaders and organization structure; other

factors like communication and empowerment can also impact ethical
climates (Parboteeah, Chen, Lin, Chen, Lee, & Chung, 2010).
Furthermore, ethical values can also shape the ethical climate of
organizations. (Stevens, 1999)Focused on effective communication
of ethical values to employees and identification of particular sources
of communication effectiveness. Even before the abysmal behavior in
the organization and corporate scandals came to lime light, business
ethics were being bluntly criticized by media and public in 70’s.
Therefore it was established that formulation of ethical codes and
ethical organization is not a solution itself but a minuscule step in
problem solving panacea. Communication of ethical issues is becoming
a cause of concern for the number of organizations. The methodology
comprises two different hotels situated in two Midwestern cities
involving total 215 employees. The article supports concept of
participative learning and also significance of training and orientation
programs was highlighted. Ethical codes tend to work more effectively
when incorporated within the organization and are readily acceptable
by the employees.
2.4 Job Satisfaction and Top management’s support for ethical

behavior:
(Visweswaran et al ., 1998) tried to ascertain the relationship between
all dimensions of job satisfaction with top management’s support for
ethical behavior. Job satisfaction was measured in terms of pay,
promotion, co-workers, supervision, work and overall combination of
all these facets. The results depicted that perceived top management’s
support for ethical behavior has no significant impact on job
satisfaction. Pakistan shares its eastern borders with India and both

these countries have almost similar cultures. Therefore it can be

deduced that results in India might yield same results in Pakistan.
However, contrary to that Koh and Boo,( 2001) found a significant
relationship of top management’s support for ethical behavior with
job satisfaction. This study was primarily linked towards managers of
Singapore. Their findings were not consistent with the Indian one.
Main rationale behind this could be the cultural differences. Kim and
Brymer, (2011)postulated that ethical leadership of top brass of the
company has significant relationship of job satisfaction on middle
level managers. To test this 30 hotels were selected and were given
questionnaires that were filled by 324 middle managers. Kim and
Brymer, (2011) were also of the view that due to economic slump the
banking and finance industry are not the only ones to have been hit
hard, hospitality sector requires more attention as these difficult times
require middle level managers to excel in their field which can’t be
done without the presence of ethical leadership. However, they
opinioned that feedback from hourly staff could have further
consolidated the result. Other hospitality sectors like restaurants and
casinos should also be explored vis-a-vis ethical leadership. Brown,
Treviño, & Harrison, (2005) also concluded that job satisfaction of
employees has strong positive relationship with ethical leadership of
the top management. Vitell and Davis, (1990)conducted an empirical
research to ascertain the relationship between job satisfaction and
ethics. MIS professionals were specifically targeted in this research
because they were thought to be facing more moral problems as
compared to employees of other functional areas of business. Job
satisfaction was measured using five separate dimensions consisting
of pay satisfaction, promotion satisfaction, co-worker satisfaction,
supervisor satisfaction and work satisfaction. The results,
interestingly, showed that with the exception of pay satisfaction top
management’s support for ethical behavior has significant positive
impact on all facets of job satisfaction. Also, no significant relationship
was established between social responsibility and job satisfaction.
Mumtaz, Ahmed, Shad, & Ghouri, (2011)found a significant positive
relationship between top management’s ethical behavior and job
satisfaction of sub-ordinates in banking sector of Pakistan. They
opinioned that dissatisfaction, leading to high turnover of employees
tends to decrease productivity, efficiency and effectiveness of banks.
Another research conducted in Pakistan by Ahmed, Shad, Mumtaz,
& Tanveer, (2012)recognized the previous research as they also

successfully determined that top management’s support for ethical

behavior has significant positive relationship with job satisfaction of
bank employees. Therefore, in the light of aforementioned results and
similarities between insurance sector and banking sector in Pakistan;
a null hypothesis was developed.
H1:Top management support for ethical behavior has significant effect on job satisfaction
2.5 Job satisfaction and Ethical Climate:
Ethical climate of an organization can have considerable

impact on job satisfaction of employees. (Ulricha, O’Donnell, Taylor,
Farrar, Danise, & Grady, (2007)Probed into relationship between ethical
climate, ethic stress and job satisfaction. Prior to this study, there was
no research done that established link corresponding to these factors.
Employees’ intentions to leave the organization were reversed in case
of positive ethical climate and job satisfaction. The ethical climate was
also found to be acting as a mediator in relationship between ethical
stress and job satisfaction. Schwepker, (1999) was of the view that
due to difference in opinions, positions, workgroups and employment
histories; every organization might have different organizational
climate. It is an irrefutable fact that both ethical and unethical climate
exist in every organizations. A positive relationship between
salespeople’s perception of their organization’s ethical climate and
their job satisfaction was determined. Furthermore, commitment
prevents people from leaving the organization. Daneshfard et al., (2011)
surveyed the role of ethical climate on job satisfaction in small and
medium enterprises. Small and medium enterprises act as a corner
stone for the economy of Iran. 10 to 49 employees working in an
enterprise can be considered as SME in Iran. Job satisfaction can be
understood in terms of its relationships with other key factors, such
as general well-being, stress at work, control at work, home-work
interface, and working conditions. Nine theoretical ethical climate types
which consisted of self-interest; company profit; efficiency; friendship;
team interest; social responsibility; personal morality; company rules
and procedures; laws and professional codes were used for the
measurement of ethical climate of an organization. The results confirmed
that ethical climate and all of its facets are significantly correlated with
job satisfaction. One of the dimensions, “Personal Morality” was

strongly positively correlated with job satisfaction. Zehir, Muceldili,

& Zehir, (2012) Were of the view that ethical climate moderates the
link between Job satisfaction, affective commitment and continuance
commitment. One of the noteworthy contributions of this study is
that existence of ethical climate in an organization will play a positive
role in increasing continuance commitment. In Pakistan’s banking
sector, Egoistic climate has negative relationship with job satisfaction;
on the other hand benevolent climate has positive significant
relationship with job satisfaction indicating that when organizations
works for the benefit and welfare of its employees, the satisfaction
level of employees increases manifold .Contrary to that, prevalence
of climate that supports interest of management; yields lower levels
of job satisfaction. Principled climate was observed to have no
significant relationship with job satisfaction (Ahmed et al., 2012).
Research in Singapore depicted that ethical climate has significant
relationship with job satisfaction. Principled ethical climate’s
relationship with job satisfaction was significant. Contrary to that,
benevolent ethical climate had no significant relationship with job
satisfaction (Koh and Boo, 2001). Therefore, keeping in view these
results a null hypothesis was proposed:
H2: Ethical climate in the organization has significant effect on job

satisfaction
2.6 Job satisfaction and association between ethical behavior and

career success:
Luthans and Stajkovic, (1999)concluded from their study that behavior

of employees can be encouraged through money, feedback and social
recognition .Therefore in an organization where employees perceive
a close association between ethical behavior and career success, the
reinforcement becomes pivotal for job satisfaction. Pay for
performance might not at all time accelerate improvement in
performance but contrary to that reinforcing for performance will
certainly improve performance for sure. Research on MIS personnel
indicated that they are more satisfied with their job when they are
optimistic about the affiliation between ethics and career success.
However, one of the dimension of job satisfaction, pay, was found to
be insignificant with ethics and career success (Vitell and Davis, 1990).

Managers from Singapore were more satisfied with their job if they
perceive a linkage between ethical behavior and career success (Koh
and Boo, 2001). Similarly in India, employees were of the view that
they will be satisfied with their job if their career prospects were high
due to ethical behavior. This result was parallel with cognitive
dissonance theory (Viswesvaran and Deshpande, 1996). Thus, a null
hypothesis was postulated:
H3: The association between ethical behavior and career success in
the organization has significant effect on job satisfaction
3.Methodology
The research was conducted between January and March 2013.The

reliance of this research will be on primary data. Since the primary aim
of this research is to investigate the link between organizational ethics
and job satisfaction, so primary data will facilitate to determine this
link. Following research instruments were used:
Job Satisfaction:
Division of Job satisfaction into different facets and their measurement

has varied from researcher to researcher. The most eminent ones
include Job Satisfaction Index (JSI), Minnesota Satisfaction
Questionnaire (MSQ), Job Satisfaction Survey (JSS) and INDSALES.
(Zehir et al.,2012).
Smith et al., (1969)recognized Job Satisfaction as a combination of

multiple factors thus they divided Job Satisfaction into six dimensions;
pay, promotion, co-workers, supervision , work and Overall Job
Satisfaction. Integration of first four facets gives value for composite
Job Satisfaction.

Managerial Job Satisfaction Questionnaire (MJSQ)

MJSQ, developed by Cellucci and DeVries, (1978) consists of a 20-
item instrument with the five facets identified by Hulin et al,. (1969)
consisting of 4-items each. It has been used and assessed by various
researchers from different parts of the world ever since its formulation.
The original MJSQ consisted of 7-point Likert scale. Over the years,
it has been modified and reduced to a 4-point Likert scale. The 7-
point Likert scale MJSQ was used by Cellucci and DeVries, (1978) and
Vitell and Davis, (1990). On the other hand, Joseph and Deshpande,
(1996), Viswesvaran et al, .(1998), Koh and Boo (2002) and Ahmed et
al,. (2012) have made use of 4-point Likert scale.
Successful usage of MJSQ in Asian countries like Singapore and
India favor its adoption and acceptation in Pakistan as well.
Top management’s support for behavior:

A 3- item instrument developed by (Hunt et al., 1984) was used. An
additional item was added by (Koh and Boo, 2002) for its measurement.
Therefore, a total 4-item instrument was used.
Association between ethical behavior and career success in

Organization:
A 6-item ethical optimism scale developed by (Hunt et al., 1984) was
used. An additional item developed by (Koh and Boo, 2006) was
added to give a total 7-item instrument.
Figure 1.:
Proposed Theoretical Framework
Top Management Support for

Ethical Behavior
Ethical Climate Job Satisfaction

 Egoistic
 Benevolent
 Principal
 Pay
 Promotion
 Co-workers
Association between Ethical  Supervision
 Work
Behavior and Career Success  Overall

Ethical climate in an organization:

The ethical climate questionnaire developed by (Cullen, Victor, &
Bronson, 1993)was adopted and measured on 4-item scale. An
additional item was added to each type of climate by (Koh and Boo,
2002).Ethical climate was computed on following:
a) Egoistic
b) Benevolent
c) Principled.
Information Gathering & Sampling Procedures:
Survey Design:
The questionnaires were administered to the employees of non-life
insurance companies having designation of manager which included
assistant, deputy, chief and senior positions. In some companies,
managerial designations are replaced with that of a president. So that
was taken into account as well. For Karachi, Peshawar, Faisalabad and
Multan the questionnaires were sent via post. On the other hand,
questionnaires for Lahore were self-administered.
Population, working population and planned sample:
The total population of Pakistan is 18 crore approximately.

According to (The Insurance Association of Pakistan, 2012) , there
are around 8130 employees working in various insurance companies
of Pakistan. Head offices of most of the insurance companies are
located in Karachi, However, 12 companies have their head office in
Lahore and one company has its in Rawalpindi. Since samples from a
single city wouldn’t have depicted results for the entire sector.
Therefore, the research was focused on 4 cities of Pakistan, one, each
from Sindh and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and three from Punjab. Thus
research was confined to Karachi, Lahore, Multan, Faisalabad and
Peshawar. So, a total 330 questionnaires were disseminated. Since,
there were many insurance companies operating in Karachi and Lahore
having broad scope of operations; thus planned sample was 110 for
Karachi and 90 for Lahore. Whereas for Peshawar, Multan and

Faisalabad; the sample size was 50 each due to lack of workforce

available there. See Table 1
Table:
Intended Sample and Response Rate
City Intended City Usable Responses

Sample
Karachi 110 Karachi 110 (100%)
Lahore 90 Lahore 82 (91.1%)
Faisalabad 50 Faisalabad 44(88 %)
Multan 50 Multan 40 (80%)
Peshawar 50 Peshawar 38 (76%)
TOTAL 350 TOTAL 314 (89.7%)
3.6 Data Analysis Tools & Techniques:
SPSS and AMOS were used for this study. From SPSS, descriptive
statistics were used to calculate percentage, mean, standard deviation
and frequency distribution of the respondents.
Harman’s one factor test was also done via SPSS.
As far as AMOS is concerned, SEM was done which included

Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) followed by exploratory analysis.
Multiple regression, model fit and values for validity and reliability
were ascertained through AMOS.
3.7 Respondent Characteristics:
Majority of the respondents, 27.7% to be exact, were aged”45 and

above “. Whereas, only 12.2% of the respondents aged between “25

and 29”constituted a minuscule proportion of the sample. Promotion

to a managerial position requires a respectable work experience, good
academic qualification and proficiency in technical skills Therefore
only handful of employees can attain status of a manager in early age.
The other age brackets “30-35” ,”36-39" and “40-44” comprised 19.6%
, 17.6% and 23% of the total respondents.
Presence of females in corporate sector of Pakistan is negligible. Main

rationale behind this is the male dominant culture in financial
institutions that hinders women to work with ease of mind and up to
their potential. Moreover Pakistani culture is a bit on the conservative
side where women are looked down upon if they work. This all was
depicted by this sample as the proportion of male was 95% (298 out of
314). Female were only 5% of the total samples (16 out of 314).
Approximately 122 respondents did their bachelors which made 39%

of the entire sample. 50% of the respondents which were in majority
acquired post graduate education. Only 19(6%) respondents had
diplomas pertaining to Insurance sector. It includes ACII etc.
Interestingly, only 16 respondents (5%) were educated till secondary
level. It depicts that these respondents were old employees of the
organizations and even though they were far behind from others as far
as education is concerned but still they had the technical know-how
and experience which elevated their status and rank as managers in
their organizations.
Married employees comprised 87.8% of the entire sample (276 out of

314) and unmarried employees were 12.2% (38 out of 314) of the sample.
Majority of the respondents were from Karachi 35.03% of the entire

sample. Second highest numbers of respondents were from Lahore
(26.11%).Smallest numbers of respondents were from Peshawar
(12.10%). Proportion of respondents from Faisalabad and Multan were
14.01 % and 12.7% respectively. Cumulative proportion of respondents
from provinces was 52.86% from Punjab, 35.03% from Sindh and 12.10%
from Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa.
A high percentage of respondents (40.5%) had work experience of “5

to 10 years “in their current organization where they are employed.
Respondents with work experience “Less than 5 years “was28.4% of

the entire sample. It depicts that turnover intention among employees

is high in insurance sector and they frequently part ways with their
organization. Experience of “20 years of more” was on the lower side
“with only 8.1% falling in this category. Approximately, 10.8% and
12.2% respondents had work experience of “11 to 15 years” and “16 to
20 years” respectively.
29.7% respondents had salary ranged between “31000-50000”.

Respondents, mainly top brass of the company had salary “80000 and
above” and made 14.9% of the total sample. 34.5% and
20.9%respondents had salary ranged between “31000-50000” and
“51000-80000” respectively.
4.Analysis:
The analysis was conducted using Job Satisfaction as a dependent

variable, whereas the independent variables were Top management’s
support for ethical behavior, Ethical Climate (Egoistic climate, Principled
Climate and Benevolent Climate). The dependent variable was further
categorized into ‘Pay’, ‘Promotion’, ‘Co-Workers’, ‘Supervisors’ and
‘Work’.
4.1 T-Test Analysis:
T-Test for Gender and marital status confirmed that there was no
difference in the opinion regardless of gender and marital status when
it comes to Pay Satisfaction, Supervision Satisfaction, Co-worker
Satisfaction, Work Satisfaction and Job satisfaction holistically.
Moreover, the opinion also didn’t differ with gender and marital status
when it came to ethical, benevolent and principled climates. They also
didn’t posit any variation in opinion between ethical behavior and
career success.
4.2ANOVA:
The results indicated that there was no difference in opinion for pay
satisfaction, promotion satisfaction, co-worker satisfaction, supervisor
satisfaction, work satisfaction, overall job satisfaction, egoistic climate,
benevolent climate, principled climate and association between ethical
behavior and career success when it comes to employee of different
age brackets, education level, departments, experience and salary.
Nevertheless, the response was different for employees that hailed

from different cities. Employees from Lahore were 0.51848 units more
satisfied with their pay as compared to satisfaction level of employees
from Multan at significance level of 0.019( á = 0.05). Likewise,
respondents from Faisalabad were 0.71364 units more satisfied with
their pay if compared with respondents from Multan at significance
level of 0.002(á = 0.05). Employees from the city of light’s satisfaction
with pay, like many other cities from Punjab also appeared to be more
than that of Multan 0.61220 (á = 0.05).
When it comes to presence of ethical climate, respondents from Lahore

seem to have been enjoying benevolent climate with greater extent as
compared to respondents from Multan with 0.49022 points ( á = 0.05).
TABLE II
Confirmatory Factor Analysis
Items Job Ethical Ethical

Satisfaction Climate Beha vior
and Success
JSPayQ2 0.49
JSPayQ4 0.78
JSCowQ1 0 0.57
JSCowQ1 1 0.66
JSCowQ1 2 0.67
JSSupQ13 0.82
JSSupQ14 0.73
JSWorkQ17 0.71
JSWorkQ19 0.41
ETCLEgoQ26R 0.83
ETCLEgoQ28R 0.30
ETCLBenQ30R 1.11
ETCLBenQ32R 0.49
ETCLPrinQ35 0.38
ETCLPrinQ36R 0.95
CARQ40R 0.74
CARQ41R 0.77
AVE 0.679 0.566 0.59 7
ρ (Reliability) 0.882 0.792 0.74 7

Likewise, presence of benevolent climate was present to greater degree

in Faisalabad, Peshawar and Karachi as compared to Lahore with 0.6973,
0.83947 and 0.65366 at significance level of 0.001, 0.000 and 0.000 ( á =
0.05) .
Perception of association between ethical behavior and career success

appeared to be greater in Multan if compared with Lahore with mean
difference of 0.42547 points at (á = 0.05).
Table III
Convergent and Discriminant Validity
CR AVE MSV ASV

EthCl 0.79 0.56 0.55 0.39
CAR 0.74 0.59 0.55 0.33
JS 0.88 0.67 0.24 0.18
Validity:
Two types of validity were tested :Convergent and Discriminat

validity.Convergent Validity is the extent to which several attempts
are in agreement to the measures (Bogazzi and Philips, 1982).
Convergent Validity would exist if the t-values are greater than two or
each item’s co-efficient should be significant (Anderson and Gerbing,
1988)The discriminant validity refers to the extent to which the
constructs are different from each other(John and Reve,
1982).Thevalues of AVE should be greater than the value of all squared
correlation. The result showed no validity concerns
4.4 Hypothesis Testing result:
A total of three hypotheiss were developed . Since one entire

independent variable, “Top Managemenet’s Suport for ethical
behavior was deleted”, thus only two hypothesis, H2 and H3, were
left to be tested.

To test for Hypothesis 2, Ethical climate was related to Job satsifaction

and the results were insignificant. Thus it indicated that ethical
climates were not linked with job satsifaction in insurance sector of
Pakistan. Therefore, the null hypothesis is accepted .
Table IV
Hypothesis Test
Hypothesis Path Estimate S.E. C.R. Significance

H1 JS <--- TopM - - - Dropped
H2 JS <--- Eth Cl - - - Insign ifican t/Dropp ed
- CAR <--- Eth Cl 1.888 .654 2.887 ***
H3 JS <--- CAR .130 .061 2.118 **
*** p<0.01
** p<0.0 5
Hypothesis 3 was tested by establishing a realtionship between

“association between ethical behavior and career success with Job
Satsifaction”. The coefficient came out to be 0.130 .The realtionship
between these variables was positive and significant with p value
0.034< 0.05. The C.R for this relationship was 2.118 Therefore, the null
hypothesis is rejected . The relationship of ethical behavior and career
with job satisfaction is significant.
A new association was developed, “ ethical climate’s linkage with
ethical behavior and career success”. The estimate came out to be
1.888 with C.R of 2.887. This relationship was highly signifcant with p
value of 0.004 (α = 0.01).
4.5 Model Fit
According to(Segars and Grover, 1998), values of CFI ,TLI and IFI
should be greater than 0.80. The final model showed a respectablegood
fit for the entire model fit indices as shown in Table V.
The CFI explains the average correaltion among variables Higher the
value, better it is. The CFI of 0.850 depcits a high correatlion among
the varaibles. RMSEA is anindicator of model fit. Usually, values

greater than 0.10 depicts poor fit. For this research the value of RMSEA
came out to be 0.082 which indicates a good fit
Table V
Model Fit
Result (Default model) Values
Chi-square 217.448
Probability level .000
CMIN/df 1.977
CFI 0.850
TLI 0 .815
IFI 0.856
RMSEA 0.082
5.Discussion
Top management’s support for ethical behavior had insignificant

relationship with job satisfaction. The results contradicts many
empirical researches(Kim and Brymer, 2011),(Vitell and Davis,
1990),(Koh and Boo, 2001),(Mumtaz et al., 2011)and (Ahmed et al.,
2012). Adding to that ,Similar research on banking sector in Pakistan
yielded significant results as far as top management’s support for
ethical behavior and job satisfaction’s link is concerned(Mumtaz et
al., 2011)and (Ahmed, Shad, Mumtaz, & Tanveer, 2012). Even though
both insurance and banking sector are financial institutions but still
insurance sector is the neglected one in terms government policies
and religious beliefs therefore results were not same. Nonetheless,
the results were consistent with the Visweswaran et al., (1998) study
of Indian Managers.

Figure 2 .
Final Structural Model
Association between Ethical

Ethical Climate Behavior and Career Job Satisfaction
Success
Apart from work, pay, supervision and coworkers, the fifth dimension
called Promotion Satisfaction was not a significant dimension of job
satisfaction vis-à-vis ethical climate of insurance companies. This is
so because they don’t expect themselves to be promoted on the
grounds that they have acted within the parameters of ethical climate
of their organization.
According to Schwepker, (1999), due to difference in opinions,

positions, workgroups and employment histories; every organization
might have different organizational climate. Therefore it is an irrefutable
fact that many organizational climates exist in an organization. In
reality, the type of ethical climates might take a U turn in a particular
organization due to change in board of directors, government policies,
nature of coworkers and supervisors, change in rules and regulations
of company and change in top management. Therefore existence of
one particular climate might seem unviable. Along with that, top
management might have conflicting interest due to which a blend of
egoistic, principled and benevolent climate might exist at the same
time in an organization. The model of job satisfaction in insurance
sector illustrates the same. Presence of such multi-faceted climate
could act as an obstacle for an employee to be satisfied from his job.
Nevertheless, an employee recognizes this conflicting climate and
adapts his behavior accordingly which in turn leads towards career
success. Once this perception is developed, and then the employee
gets satisfied from multi dimension of job satisfaction which includes
the likes of Pay Satisfaction, Supervisor Satisfaction, Co-worker
Satisfaction, Work satisfaction and overall job satisfaction.
Nonetheless, respondents were of the view that it is highly unlikely
that they’ll move up in the rank for acting ethically.The relationship
of “association between ethical behavior and career success “and
“Job Satisfaction” was established in previous studies as well (Vitell

and Davis, 1990),(Viswesvaran and Deshpande, 1996) and (Koh and

Boo, 2001.
Employees in one of the city were least satisfied with their jobs as
compared to employees in other cities. This could probably be because
of the prevalence of strict and rigid rules in order to restrain and
avoid any uncalled for behavior in the organization. On the condition
of anonymity, a top manager of an insurance company from Lahore
revealed that employees in that particular city engage in immoral and
unethical activities like accepting false claims in order to ante up a lot
of money for their personal use. As this happens without the
knowledge of their managers, the administration and the respective
head offices are left with no other option but to enforce rigorous
disciplinary policies and punitive actions against the deviants. The
reason behind breaking the rules and going for corrupt practices is
their meager salary and non-benevolent climate in the organization.
Job satisfaction is an important determinant of job attitudes,

behaviors, turnover intention, absenteeism and organizational
outcome. Greater job satisfaction directs to stronger organizational
commitment (Viswesvaran and Deshpande, 1996) and (Sims and
Kroeck, 1994). Commitment of insurance companies’ employees will
increase manifold if the ethical climate allows them to grow as an
employee who eventually helps them comprehend the fact that their
ethical behavior can ultimately lead to job satisfaction and
organizational commitment. Absenteeism and turnover can have a
dire impact on an organization. (Koh and Boo, 2001). Dissatisfied
employee will show weariness in work and won’t devote his mind and
soul to work. Moreover, he will not show up for work often. An
employee can even go on to make an extreme decision to bid farewell
to the organization and seek his fortune somewhere else. Therefore,
top brass of the company should try their utmost to create an ethical
climate that is for the interest of the employees also keeping in view
company’s interest. This will in due course create a win- win situation
both for the company and for the employee and lead to a substantial
de-escalation of absenteeism and turnover rate of employees in the
company. Ethical behavior can be enforced through formulation of
code of ethics (Cleek and Leonard, 1998). An anonymous top manager
said that the code of ethics for most of the insurance companies is
vague and flawed. Therefore the need arises to develop a clear and

comprehensive code of ethics which clearly defines the do’s and

don’ts.
In the light of discussion above, it can be observed that

organizational ethics can have detrimental effect on organizational
outcomes. Therefore the findings of this study can help administration
of the company to supervise and be in command of their employees
by making it mandatory for employees to attend workshops and
seminars for training and education purpose. Last but not least,
supervisors themselves should also be part of those training sessions
so that they can play more active part in supporting ethical behavior
which at the moment is nonexistent in insurance sector.
6.Conclusion:
This study examines the link between organizational ethics and job
satisfaction as perceived by managers of non-life insurance sector.
To be more specific, link between job satisfaction and association
between ethical behavior and career success, top management’s
support for ethical behavior and ethical climates were ascertained.
Managers from 14 different companies from Karachi, Lahore,
Peshawar, Multan and Faisalabad were administered questionnaires.
The response rate was 89.6%. Employees from Multan appeared to
be less satisfied with their job. The results overall depicted that top
management’s support for ethical behavior has no link with job
satisfaction which is consistent with findings of Visweswaran et al.,
(1998). Moreover, ethical climate also has no direct link with job
satisfaction. However; it is indirectly linked towards Job satisfaction
via ethical behavior and career success association.
The time period during which the questionnaires were administered

to the employees coincided with the period that companies tell their
employees of the increments that they’ll be getting. This might have
affected the results as in the case of high increments the employees
will be satisfied with their jobs and organization and vice versa. Thus
indicating Extremity biasness. The findings cannot be generalized for
the entire sector as all the insurance companies were not made part of
the research. Baluchistan was excluded from the research as the
province has very few branches owing to limited scope of operation.
Questionnaires were sent via e-mail to places that were geographically

distant. The absence of researcher in such places may have caused

the difficulty in comprehending the questionnaires.
Future research should encompass various other aspects of

organizational outcome and organizational ethics .Moreover, impact
of different religions and ethnicity on link between job satisfaction
and organizational ethics should be considered. It is also advised
that a question “Top management in my organization should have
higher ethical standards than they do now” of top management’s
support for ethical be removed from future research as it has
persistently been giving reliability issues. Koh and Boo, (2001) faced
the same issue. Last but not least the impact on job satisfaction prior
and after the successful implementation of behavioral and ethical
training program in an organization should also be studied. Impact of
role stress should also be studied as was done by Renu and Natarajan
, (2011). Future research should also focus on job satisfaction of
employees who deal with Life insurance.

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Research
Research The Influence of Organizational Factors. . .
THE INFLUENCE OF
ORGANIZATIONAL FACTORS ON
EMPLOYEES’ COMMITMENT
LEVELS: A STUDY OF THE BANKING
SECTOR OF PAKISTAN
Feryal Khan1 & Sohail Zafar2
Abstract
Although a lot of international research studies have

highlighted organizational practices to be an important
determinant of employees’ commitment to their organizations, little
attempt has been made to explore the relationship of these two
concepts by researchers in Pakistan.
The rationale for this study was to offer an insight into

how Organizational Commitment and its three components namely
Affective, Continuance and Normative Commitment may be
influenced and enhanced by organizational factors consisting of
Teamwork, Rewards, Training and Communication. This study also
examined the relationship of demographic factors with the
employees’ organizational Commitment to ascertain which set of
variables has the highest impact on employee commitment. A random
sample of 200 commercial bank employees was surveyed in Lahore
through a questionnaire. Correlational, stepwise regression
analyses were carried out to study the association between the
dependant and the independent variables. Results revealed that on
the whole, organizational factors were important determinants of
employees’ commitment levels, while demographic factors had a
relatively less significant association with the organizational
commitment and its forms. Continuance form of commitment also
showed weaker association with organizational factors as
compared to Affective and Normative Commitments. Implications
and recommendations have been presented for managers to utilize
key organizational factors in order to enhance employees’
commitment levels.
Keywords: Organizational Commitment, organizational practices,

Banking sector, demographics.
1 & 2 - Department of Business Administration, Lahore School of

Economics, Lahore, Pakistan

The Influence of Organizational Factors. . . Research
1.Introduction
Organizational commitment has been labeled as a key

determinant and the driving force of many positive organizational
level outcomes .Organizational commitment is referred to as the
“psychological link between the employee and his organization” which
makes the employee leaving the organization voluntarily less likely
(Allen & Meyer, 1996). People working for organizations “have certain
needs, desires, skills, and so forth and expect to find a work
environment where they can utilize their abilities and satisfy many of
their basic needs”(Dessler, 2005). Organizational commitment can be
increased if an organization is successful in providing such a vehicle.
Employee commitment has been linked to several positive results
namely lower turnover rate and absenteeism, higher level of motivation
and job satisfaction , lower operating costs, higher productivity and
higher efficiency (Morrow, 1993; Meyer & Allen, 1996; Lieu, 2008).
Thus a committed employee can be favorable to the organization and
its goals.
Since the linkage between how an organization deals with its

employees and the way it affects their attitudes such as commitment
has been established, exploration of such linkages is of great
significance. In earlier studies, many aspects of organizational practices
have been identified which were related to organizational performance.
Some of these dimensions were communication, teamwork, training
and development, stability, respect for coworkers, rewards and
recognition, proactive planning and fairness in management practices
etc.,(Ricardo and Jolly,1997; Lau and Idris, 2001). Positive employee
behaviors such as job satisfaction and organizational commitment
along with negative outcomes of employees, such as absenteeism or
turnover are directly linked to organizational practices and policies.
Having established the importance of Organizational

Commitment, this study will attempt to present an insight into what
factors impact the organizational commitment of employees of banking

organization. Aim of this study is to build on existing literature on

organizational commitment with main focus on organizational
practices in the Pakistani banking sector. The banking sector as the
empirical setting for this study was chosen for various reasons. Firstly,
there is a dearth of research studies on organizational behavior issues
in Pakistan. Secondly, the banking sector in Pakistan is important and
has considerable national as well as international significance and
yet continues to be ignored in research settings. Over the years, the
role of a bank employee has transformed from “teller to seller” (Burton,
1991). Thus banks, just like any other organization which aims to
deliver better services must have the right practices in place in order
to keep the workers motivated. This will eventually assist in increasing
operating efficiencies.
Rewards, Teamwork, Training and Communication are the

organizational factors chosen for this study as the independent
variables. Numerous international research studies (e.g Boon et. al
2006; Karia and Asaari, 2006; Zain et al,2009) have found a significant
relation between these dimensions and employees’ commitment levels.
Moreover, organizational commitment is going to be assessed within
a multidimensional structure for this study. Allen & Meyer (1990),
proposed that Organizational commitment has three dimensions
namely, Affective, Continuance and Normative commitment. It is
established that the development of these forms of commitment is
influenced by different sets of variables (Mathebula, 2004). For
instance continuance commitment is reported to be related to
company’s compensation policies as the employee may want to be
with the organization, in order to avoid losing those benefits.
Contrarily, training has been reported to inculcate normative form of
commitment. Thus for this study organizational commitment will be
explored as multidimensional in nature and will be the dependant
variable of this study.
The studies on commitment that have been carried out in

Pakistan are far and few ( e.g. Chughtai & Zafar, 2006; Tayyab &

Tariq, 2001). Moreover, they have not discussed the relationship

between organizational factors and organizational commitment.
Further, most of the research studies have measured commitment as
a uni-dimensional construct (e.g. Chughtai & Zafar, 2006; Iqbal, 2010;
Bushra et al, 2011), as opposed to the more established
multidimensional construct. Most of the local studies were based on
how demographic factors affect the organizational commitment .
Research however demonstrates that demographic factors play a
relatively less significant role in the development of organizational
commitment and all its form (Meyer et al, 2002). Thus this study
attempts to measure the present levels of three forms of commitment
of the banking sector employees. Also, their perception of
organizational practices is going to be studied with respect to
commitment levels. Are the prevalent organizational factors amplifying
the worker and the organization bond or are they driving them away?
This study aims to also find out the set of predictor variables
(demographic and organizational) which has the strongest impact on
organizational commitment and its three forms. This study’s findings
may be useful for managers who can implement steps and make strategic
interventions in order to ensure their employees’ longer and more
productive stay with the organization, leading to minimized costs and
higher efficiency.
The next section of this paper defines Organizational

commitment and its forms and highlights the advantages of higher
levels of commitment for organizations. Next we discuss the
relationship between the Organizational factors and the three forms of
Organizational commitment. We then discuss the methods adopted
along with the details about each of the variables’ measurement. Then
the study’s results based on the independent variables will be
discussed. Finally a concluding discussion along with the study’s
limitations, practical implications and recommendations for future
research is presented.

2. Literature Review
2.1Organizational Commitment
Organizational commitment’s construct is extensively

studied across the globe in the past few decades (e.g., Buchanan,
1974, Porter et al., 1976, Mowday et al., 1979, Allen &Meyer, 1990).
Several definitions have also emerged over the years “an employee’s
identification with the organization’s goals and values; their
willingness to exert a great effort on behalf of the organization; and
their intention to stay with the organization” (Porter et al., 1976).
Mowdeay et al (1979) define it as being the “employees’ psychological
attachment to the organization”. However, the earlier approaches to
study commitment were criticized in later years for lack of consistency
and a unidimensional approach being used to define the construct of
commitment and its antecedents. Meyer and Allen (1991) proposed
the three-component model, which has earned credit and popularity
in the last two decades. The three forms (affective, normative and
continuance commitment) provide a more in-depth and accurate
analysis of the commitment concept. This model was developed with
the rationale that all the three abovementioned forms of commitment
are distinguishable. Although they relate negatively to turnover, the
nature of the link differs. Moreover affective, normative and
continuance commitment are reported to relate differently to other
organizational behaviors such as employee attendance, turnover,
organizational citizenship behavior or in-role performance (Meyer et
al.2002).
An employee can experience varying degrees of the three

forms of commitment, thus these are distinguishable, separable,
psychological states (Allen and Meyer, 1990). Affective commitment
is defined as an “employees’ emotional attachment to, identification
with and involvement in the organization” (Allen& Meyer, 1990).
Positive job experiences help develop affective commitment and it is
linked to positive organizational outcomes such as lower level of

absenteeism and higher citizenship behavior (Meyer & Allen, 1997).

Workers displaying a stronger level of affective commitment are
claimed to be working for their organization as “they want to, and
they show greater keenness to put in more effort on behalf of their
organization” (Meyer & Allen, 1997).
Continuance commitment is the second dimension of

organizational commitment construct proposed by Allen and Meyer
(1991_) It is the “employees’ commitment to the organization as they
perceive high costs of losing organizational membership”. Employees
with higher levels of continuance commitment find it more difficult to
leave their organizations due to higher “un-transferable investments”
such as years of service in a company, pensions, retirement funds,
friendship and attachment developed with co-workers etc (Meyer &
Allen, 1991).
Moreover, it is claimed by Meyer & Allen (1991) that

normative commitment might be derived from more than one factor
such as “employees’ sense of obligation towards his organization”.
Employees for instance, may feel a moral obligation to put in their best
effort and show loyalty to their work in case the organization has
invested resources (money and time) in the employee’s training.
Normative commitment is claimed to be not as strong as affective
commitment in predicting employees overall commitment.
“Employees with strong affective commitment remain with

the organization because they want to, those with strong continuance
commitment because they need to and the ones with strong normative
commitment as they feel they ought to”, Allen and Meyer (1990). It is
important to note that the affective commitment’s advantages such as
desirable work behaviours are expected to be greatest while the
continuance commitment outcomes may be negative for organizations.

2.2Organizational Factors:
Literature has identified various Organizational commitment’s

antecedents. Variables such as Job attributes (e.g. communication,
job challenge, and the amount of feedback etc), Personal
characteristics (e.g. age, gender, tenure, education, etc), and work
experiences (e.g. organizational trust, dependability etc) have been
studied for their impact on the employees’ commitment.
The link between commitment and several organizational factors has

also been extensively studied and multiple dimensions of an
organizations practices and policies, which may relate to organizational
commitment, have been identified and measured.
The organizational factors chosen for this study as the

independent variables (i.e., teamwork, communication, rewards and
training) are listed alongside the most important dimensions as
identified by Jung et al (2009) in his meta analysis. Various studies
have also individually discussed the role of these factors on
commitment e.g. teamwork and commitment was studied by
(Denison,1990, O’Reilly et al., 1991) Rewards and commitment
by(Schein, 1990), Communication and commitment by( Tsui et al, 2006
and Xenikou & Simosi, 2006) training and commitment by (Lau and
Idris, 2001) .
Bratton & Gold, (1994) refer to rewards as “all forms of

financial return, tangible services and benefits an employee receives
as part of an employment relationship”. S. Su et al, (2009) suggest
that employees rewarded for achieving set goals and improved
performances are reported to have an increased likelihood of higher
motivation levels and commitment. It has been suggested that rewards
should be made contingent on employees’ performance as this will
encourage them to put in an extra effort. Thus when organizations
create links between employee performance and rewards can lead to
higher commitment. Training is defined as “systematic activities to

develop and improve employees skill, knowledge and behaviors to

enable them to perform job related duties, accomplish specific tasks
and meet the quality requirements of human resource for the future”,
(Bulut & Culha,2010). Studies have shown Training is involved in
significantly enhancing various forms of organizational commitment,
with strongest impact on affective commitment (Ahmad&Bakar, 2003).
Teamwork has been defined as “the extent to which employees within
a firm cooperate with each other and work in unison towards overall
organizational goals” (Delarue, et al, 2008). Several terms such as
‘groups’, ‘teams’and ‘work units’ have been used at different times
and in different settings, to describe this form of work. It was found
that teamwork was one of the most significant factors that influence
organizational success (Karia and Asaari, 2006). Teamwork led to the
development of a strong, supportive relationship amongst employees
and the managers.
Communication is the fourth dimension of this study and it

is defined as “a process whereby individuals and groups transact in
a variety of ways and within different areas with the objective of
carrying out organizational goals” (Smidts et al., 2001). Positive
influences such as higher job satisfaction and motivation, lower
turnover and better organizational climate and higher commitment
have been linked with effective communication by a growing body of
literature. This eventually leads to improved organizational
performance (Nakra,2006).
2.3 Demographic Factors:
The secondary motive of this study is to verify the impact of

several demographic factors on organizational commitment. Some
studies have suggested a positive link between marital status, age,
tenure of work and organizational commitment (e.g, Mathieu 7 Zajac,
1990). Married employees may show higher levels of commitment due
to higher financial needs and responsibilities. In another study by
Ahmad and Bakar(2003) no link was found between gender and our

dependant variable. However, opposite results were reported by

Mathieu and Zajac(1990) as women were found to have higher levels
of commitment. Contradicting results have been reported in studies
in the past for age and organizational commitment as well. For example,
Salami(2008) and Meyer and Allen (1998) showed a significant
relationship between the two studied variables. However it was also
noted that older employees had a higher level of continuance for of
commitment than younger employees because of higher stakes
involved. Not only this study will explore the relationship of the
above mentioned demographic factors and organizational commitment
but it will also find out whether demographic factors have a stronger
or weaker impact as compared to organizational factors. Below we
present the theoretical framework.
Figure 1:
Theoretical framework of the study
Organizational Organizational Socio-Demographic
Culture Commitment factors
Training Affective Age
commitment Gender
Rewards
Continuance
Teamwork Marital Status
commitment
Normative
Communication commitment Tenure
Based on the above mentioned literature, five main hypotheses are

presented in this study:
H1: Rewards are significantly related with organizational

commitment and its forms,
H2: Teamwork is significantly related with organizational
commitment and its forms
H3: Training is significantly related with organizational
commitment and its forms
H4: Communication is significantly related with
organizational commitment and its forms
H5: Demographic factors are significantly related with
organizational commitment and its forms

3.Research Methodology
3.1Sample:
Several studies (Karia and Asaari,2006, Su, et al.,2009) have

also adopted convenience sampling to study organizational
commitment and used a sample size ranging from 150 to 400, (e.g Allen
&Brady,1997 ; Su.et al,2009). Mathebula (2004) confirms in his study
that at least 10 degree of freedom is generally deemed to be adequate
for a regression analysis per variable to achieve “adequate statistical
power”. Therefore given the temporal and logistical constraints for
this study convenience method sampling was adopted and 250
questionnaires were distributed in 21 different banks operational in
Lahore. A total of 200 usable questionnaires were returned, providing
a return rate of 80 percent. One reason for the high response rate was
that the questionnaires were disseminated and collected personally at
their respective branches. The sample consisted of 200 respondents,
out of which 149 were males and 51 were females.
The study’s sampling frame included banking sector

employees with permanent status. The majority of the respondents
were males 74.5%. Moreover, 58% of the respondents were married.
Respondents who had been working for their current bank for less
than 5 years comprised 72.5% of the total sample. The age group of 26
to 35 years had the highest representation with their proportion being
60.5% of the total sample. The majority of the respondents (48.5%)
reported themselves to be a part of the middle management, 12.5%
were in the upper management while the remaining 39% were in the
lower managerial category.
3.2 Variable Measurement:
The scales used in the research questionnaire were adopted

from the existing literature. The scales applied likert scale with
1=Strongly Disagree forming the one end of the continuum and

7=Strongly Agree the other end. Reverse coding was applied for
items with negative statements. The questionnaire consisted of three
main sections. The first section includes statements to measure
Organizational commitment and its forms. The second section
addresses questions related to organizational dimensions. Lastly,
the third section requests the respondents to provide demographic
details.
To measure the dependant variable i.e Organizational

commitment and its forms, Allen and Meyer’s (1990) 24-item scale. It
is a widely used instrument , across the globe consisting of three
subscales measuring affective, continuance and normative forms of
organizational commitment respectively.
The questionnaire used in this study to measure

Organizational practices was developed by Lau and Idris (2001). This
instrument has been used by various studies conducted in Asian
countries (e.g; Boon and Arumugam, 2006 and Zain et. al, 2009).
Therefore its validity and reliability in a Pakistani city is more feasible.
Also, it comprises if the four most important organizational factors,
as suggested by other research studies also. It constitutes of 17
items to measure the four dimensions (, teamwork, rewards, training
and communication ) Again, a seven point likert scale was applied
which ranged from 1 being “strongly disagree” to 7 being “strongly
agree”.
The descriptive statistics summary of independent and dependent

variables of this study is presented in Table 1. It is to be observed
that affective commitment levels were relatively higher than the other
two aspects. However the variation in affective commitment levels
was also noted to be the highest (0.987). This pattern depicts that
some employees did not exhibit the ideal levels of affective commitment.
The Cronbach Alphas were computed and also reported in Table1.
The values of Cronbach Alphas exceeded the .50 threshold value,
which is considered acceptable for the scale reliability for a survey

based study (Nunnaly, J. C., 1978). Thus it can be stated that the
reliability of the survey items are acceptable.
Table1:
Descriptive Statistics of Banking Employees Perceptions of
Organizational Commitment forms and Organizational Factors
Variable N Mean S. Dev Cronbach Alpha

Organizational Commitmen t 200 4.40 .634 -
Affective Commitment 200 4.55 .987 0.73
Continuance Commitment 200 4.28 .818 0.72
Normative Commitment 200 4.37 .882 0.60
Organizational factors 200 4.70 1.11 -
Rewards 200 4.52 1.36 0.87
Teamwork 200 4.71 1.15 0.70
Communication 200 4.70 1.34 0.86
Training 200 4.89 1.37 0.82
4. Results:
The SPSS statistical software Version 15 was utilized to carry
out the calculations and statistical analyses. Firstly, correlations had
been calculated to show the link between the dependant variable i.e
organizational commitment and its subscales with organizational and
demographic factors. The results , presented in table 2, indicate that
organizational factors have a meaningful conceptual relationship with
organizational commitment and its forms.VIF (variance inflation factor)
was computed to check the multicolinearity amongst the set of
independent variables. The largest VIF value was 3.25, which is
significantly lower than the cut-off value of 10 (Chatterjee, Hadi &
Price, 2000). Thus it can be stated that multi-co linearity did not seem
to be a problem for this study.
Teamwork displayed a significantly positive association with

overall organizational commitment as well as all three forms of
commitment separately. It had the highest positive correlation with
Overall organizational commitment (r =.472, p<.01) and lowest with
continuance commitment (r =.219, p<.01). Communication had the
highest positive correlation with overall commitment (r =.463, p<.01).
A relatively weaker correlation was found between continuance
commitment and communication(r =.177, p<.05). Communication had
a moderate correlation with normative commitment (r =.368, p<.01).
Similarly, affective commitment had a useful conceptual correlation

with rewards (r =.368, p<.01), followed by normative commitment (r
=.349, p<.01).
Age had a significant positive link with overall organizational

commitment (r = .164, p<.05) and affective commitment(r=.162, p<.05).
This is in line with earlier research findings (e.g. Allen and Meyer,
1990) where age was shown to have a moderately positive correlation
with affective commitment. Current work experience for our data
showed positive correlation (r=.198, p<.01) with organizational
commitment and affective commitment (r=.197, p<.01). Mathieu &
Zajac (1990) also suggested that affective commitment may increase
in employees belonging to higher age and tenure groups. This could
be due to their higher satisfaction with jobs and receiving better
perks and positions etc.
Gender and the forms of commitment did not reveal any

form of significant relationship which is in line with Mathebula’s
(2004) findings. Similarly marital status did not have any significant
relationship with the three forms of commitment.
Table 2:
Correlation analysis between Organizational commitment and its
forms with Organizational and Demographic variables
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1. G ender 1
2. Ma rital status -.083 1
3. A ge - .549(**
1
.184(**) )
4. Work experience .344(** .735(**
-.144(*) 1
) )
5. T eamwork -.008 .052 .107 .126 1
6. Communication .685(**
.080 - .023 .040 .102 1
)
7. Rewards .564(** .682(**
.100 .018 .031 .090 1
) )
8. Training .562(** .581(** .667(**
.015 - .005 .018 .123 1
) ) )
9. A ffective Commitment .197( ** .368(** .417(** .432(** .3 82(**
-.022 - .008 .16 2(*) 1
) ) ) ) )
10. Continuanc e .219(**
-.073 .054 .129 .126 .177(*) .171(*) .124 .105 1
Commitmen t )
11. N ormative .402(** .368(** .349(** .3 82(** .465(**
.000 .003 .053 .089 .150(*) 1
Commitmen t ) ) ) ) )
12. O vera ll Commitment .198( ** .472(** .463(** .459(** .4 29(** .780(** .554( ** .770(**
-.043 .021 .16 4(*) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) 1
Significant at the 0.05 level; **Significant at the 0.01 level.

Gender: 1= Male, 2 = Female, Marital status: 1= Yes, 2 = No, Commitment
and Organizational subscales were measured on a Likert scale from 1-7

Furthermore, stepwise regression analysis was performed to

explore the relationship between organizational commitment and its
components with the predictor variables. Stepwise method of
regression was employed in this study because it helps in determining
the set of factor with the higher predictive power on organizational
commitment and its form. The focus of our study is to find out which
independent variables are able to best predict the dependant variable
, there for stepwise regression is the appropriate method to determine
it as it assisted in identifying the particular variables with the highest
impact on overall organizational commitment and its three forms. The
results of the analysis are presented in Table 3. All of the models
tested were significant with moderately high R2 values ,except for
continuance commitment. In Model 1, Overall Organizational
Commitment was regressed on demographic and organizational factors
and they explained just over 29% of the variance in the Overall
commitment. The identified significant beta coefficients amongst the
proposed antecedents were two organizational factors, (teamwork and
rewards) and one demographic factor i.e. current work experience.
In Model 2, rewards and communication were positively

related to affective commitment. This means that the higher the rewards
and communication level in a banking organization, the higher the
employees’ affective commitment. Amongst the demographic factors,
current work experience was positively associated with affective form
of commitment. The R2 value was 24%, slightly lower than the value
for Overall commitment in the first model. Meanwhile the stepwise
regression analysis performed in Model 3 for continuance commitment
in Table 3 indicated that only 4.8% variation was explained by one
organizational dimension i.e. teamwork. None of the other
organizational and demographic variables were significant enough to
appear in the stepwise multiple regression equation. Lastly, in Model
4, two organizational organizational factors (teamwork and training)
entered the equation collectively accounting for 18.9% of the total
variance in the normative form of commitment. Higher teamwork and
training opportunities in the organization is thus expected to increase

the bank employees’ normative commitment i.e moral obligation to

stay with the company. None of the demographic variables had a
significant relationship with normative commitment, however.
Table 3:
Results of stepwise regression analysis
Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4
Variables Overall Org Commitment Affective commitment Continuance commitment Normative Commitment
Co-efficient T-stat Co-efficient T-stat Co-efficient T -stat Co-efficient T-stat
Rewards 0.288 3.957** .291 3.389**
Teamwork 0.290 3.971** .219 3.153** .274 3.547**
Communication .212 2.46*8
Training .228 2.955**
Gender
Marital status
Age
Work experience 0.134 2.225* .153* 2.446
F-value 27.653 20.63 9.94 24.21
p-value 0.00 .000 .002 .000
R2 0.297 .240 .048 .197
Adjusted R2 0.287 .228 .043 .189
N 200 200 200 200
*Significant at the 0.05 level; **Significant at the 0.01 level.
5.Conclusions
The rapidly changing dynamics of the employee-

organization relationship have made it imperative for managers to
understand the factors that may affect an employee’s commitment to
his organization positively. The study’s basic purpose was to
determine the impact of two sets of factors on the organizational
commitment of employees – which is a source of competitive
advantage for an organization. The relationship of organizational
commitment was studied with four independent key organizational
factors i.e rewards, teamwork, communication and training. A relatively
low variation in the three dimensions of organizational commitment
was linked with the study’s chosen demographic variables, as
indicated by R-square value. On the other hand, the findings from
the statistical analyses showed a relatively stronger evidence for the
hypothesized relationship between organizational commitment and
the organizational factors.

The best results were witnessed for organizational

commitment and affective commitment, whereas the weakest
association was between organizational components and continuance
commitment. This substantiates the argument that an employee’s
feelings of obligation to stay with his company are largely determined
by positive work experiences which are result of preferred
organizational practices. Their willingness to stay with the company
will be resultant of their emotional attachment to the organization.
Consistent with earlier studies (e.g Malhotra et al, 2007)

rewards were found to be significantly, positively related with overall
organizational commitment and affective commitment. Thus H1 was
partially supported. However, unlike the findings of the study by S.
Su et al, (2009), in which rewards were positively linked to normative
commitment, our study found no such association. Similarly no link
was found between rewards and continuance form of commitment,
which was in contrast to earlier findings (Mathieu and Zajac, 1990 &
Malhotra et al., 2007). The study’s findings show that overall ,
continuance and normative commitment are significantly related to
teamwork, thus partially supporting H2. The result confirms the study
by Karia and Asaari (2006), which showed that there is a significantly
positive relationship between teamwork with organizational
commitment. Our study also supports the finding of the meta-analysis
performed by Delarue et al., (2008), in which teamwork was identified
to have a positive link with employee performance attitudes and
behavior. Training showed a significant relationship with normative
commitment as displayed by the stepwise regression analysis but it
did not reveal any relationship that was significant, with other forms
of commitment . A Malaysian study by Ahmad and Bakar,
(2003)supports these findings. This phenomenon signifies that the
employee might show a higher level of normative commitment if the
organization has invested in training the employee and so he might
feel indebted to his organization . From the results of Table 3,
Communication showed a positively significant link with only affective
form of commitment. This result is in accord with the literature that

states that employees who have a positive impression of

communicational factors are expected to exhibit higher levels of
commitment to the organization (Smidt et al, 2001). Better
communication environment, where the employees’ responsibilities,
expectations and performance evaluation criteria are clarified, might
create a climate of fairness and thus promote affective commitment.
Our results, on the other hand, were unable to establish a link between
the other forms of commitment and communication, thus H4 was only
partially supported.
This study’s findings are of great importance and relevance

for managers aiming for their organizations’ development. Results
confirmed the organizational factors to collectively explain a higher
percentage change in organizational commitment and its components
as compared to the demographic factors. The study suggests that
organizational practices are key for the development of affective and
normative ties with the company, which are the preferred forms of
commitment. Thus the managers need to focus on the potential
mechanisms to enhance employees’ commitment in order to develop
and maintain organizational values and success. Moreover, emphasis
should be laid on rewards and communication policies within the
banking organizations as they are the most significant predictors of
affective commitment.
As far as the hypothesis (H5) for the relationship between

demographic factors and forms of organizational commitment is
concerned, it was only partially accepted . Out of the four chosen
demographic variables, only work tenure showed a significant
relationship with organizational commitment and its affective form.
This implies that as the work years increase for an employee with a
company, his affective commitment and sense of belonging to the
organization will also grow. Young workers with a smaller work tenure
might not feel attached to the company and have higher likelihood to
leave the organization for better job opportunities etc

The study’s findings also support the Three Component

Model of commitment by indicating that the three forms of
organizational commitment have different antecedants . While affective
and normative commitment have a positive link with important
organizational variables, continuance commitment shows a much
weaker relationship with the demographic or organizational set of
independent variables.
6. Limitations and Suggestions for Future Research
This research study had certain limitations. Firstly the

sampled population was restricted to Lahore, Pakistan and might not
be representative of the whole country. Secondly, the banking sector
was chosen as the area for investigation, so the findings may not be
applicable to the organizations outside the banking sector. However,
the findings of this research were largely consistent with the earlier
research findings carried out in other Asian and Western regions.
Moreover, it is also known that standardized questionnaires

are only reflective of the volunteering respondents perceptions thus
there is a compromise on the depth of the data. Also, a close ended
questionnaire may not be to reflective of an employee’s real emotions
and working conditions in the true sense , therefore qualitative analysis
based on interviews and forum discussions are also advised. Further
research is recommended be taken up in other cities of Pakistan to
make a cross country comparison. Similarly this study could also be
replicated in other business sectors across other countries in order to
do a cross country comparison of commitment levels .
This study’s findings have shown several avenues which

could be taken up for further investigation by researchers.
Organizational factors have emerged as important features related to
commitment however the factors under examination in this study are
not exhaustive. Therefore, it is also important to explore other
organizational aspects that may help to increase employees
commitment.
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26.

Research
Research A Case Study On: Intrinsic Motivation Effect . . .
INTRINSIC MOTIVATION EFFECT

ON LEARNING IN A PRIVATE
BUSINESS SCHOOL
IN KARACHI
Shagufta Ghaur1
Abstract
This study is an exploratory research, based on an attempt

to explore the variables that cause intrinsic motivation and to
understand student’s perception about the usefulness of the
Organizational Behaviour course, on a private Business University
in Karachi. The course was delivered to two different addressees-
BBA and BS-J. The data has been collected through primary and
secondary sources via questionnaire and also follow up focus group
was carried out with a subset of the students after the course ended
to gain insight on students’ response. The study reveals interest in
the subject matter, course design, novelty and teacher’s enthusiasm
plays a very important role in intrinsically motivating student,
intrinsically motivated student has positive effect on their learning,
but perceived usefulness and student learning were mixed, students
of BBA-HR were more intrinsically interested in the subject matter
of the course than were the other students. The results are discussed,
that will assist other faculty to decide upon the ways to design
course content that intrinsically motivates student, their learning
and enhances their perception that leads to success in life.
Keywords: Intrinsic motivation, students learning, organizational

behavior
JEL Classification: I 290
1-Dept of Management, Institute of Business Management (IoBM),

Karachi, Pakistan

A Case Study On: Intrinsic Motivation Effect . . . Research
Introduction
This research was an attempt to understand the variables

that intrinsically motivates a student and effect it has on their learning,
are the activities, projects, moderate balance of theory and practise,
empowerment, course content, intrinsically motivates a student or
not, further the researcher want to analyse the perception they have
about Organizational Behaviour course. This study was conducted is
the second business leading university of Pakistan. This study is of
immense importance keeping in view the declining students interest
and motivation in courses, as their focus is on earning grade rather
than acquiring knowledge. This problem is augmented by the sensitivity
that in today’s competitive world only those individuals will survive
who has mastery over things and are intrinsically motivated rather
than having a superficial knowledge of everything, this will not get
them ahead in this highly competitive battle, as a responsive researcher
it is the duty of the educationist to channel their abilities and
competencies in such a manner that not only makes them successful
but comprehensively move them towards a better society.
Over the years there have been smattering of articles on

student interest and motivation (e.g., Hiller & Hietapelto, 2001; Levy,
2007; Vaill, 2007; Robbins, 1998). As other academicians’ have noted
an incessant problem with pupil’s motivation in the college classroom
in general (e.g., Debnath, Tandon, & Pointer, 2007).
It has been observed that students’ interest and motivation

has declined. Various researchers have suggested that the problem is
with the grades and grading (e.g., Edwards &Edwards, 1999; Levy,
2007; Van Seters & Field, 1989). Hietapelto & Hiller(2001) for example
illustrated that students are more” performance oriented” than
“mastery oriented” in class. This situation clearly identifies that their
focus is not on learning but is an earning grades, this leads to low
intrinsic motivation, involvement and commitment to the course. As
there is a superfluity of evidence that high student interest is related
to positive learning outcomes(Schiefele,1991,1996;Bergin,1999;Frymier,
Shulman,&Houser,1996;Hidi,1990).
The study explored this area and understands how to make

the course intrinsically motivating and interesting to all students and

then measure the differences in their perception and selection of the
career. Additional study supports the basic casual chain from interest
to intrinsic motivation to learning outcomes (Webber & Patterson,
2000; Young, 2005).
The researcher’s interest in undertaking this research was

an effort to enhance the students’ intrinsic interest in the
Organizational behavior (OB) course and to determine which features
in a course contribute to enhance the intrinsic motivation of a student
and to evaluate difference in the intrinsic motivation that might be
present in BBA students compared to BS-J.
This research will assist other faculty to decide upon the

ways to design course content that intrinsically motivates student,
their learning and enhances their perception that leads to success in
life. Given below are the qualitative research questions:
· To explore the variables that cause intrinsic motivation

· To analyze student perception about the usefulness of OB
course content
On the basis of some related literature review the following hypothesis

were formulated:
H 1: Intrinsic motivation impacts positively upon students

learning.
H2: To examine association between intrinsic motivation and
satisfaction with OB course.
Literature Review
There is a surfeit of facts that students’ positive learning

outcomes are related to their interest (Bergin, 1999; Frymier, Shulman,
& Houser,1996; Hidi, 1990; Schiefele, 1991, 1996). There were sequence
of experiment; Schiefele (1991) found a strong correlation between
interest and time spent. Highly interested students spent more time
in significant thinking, seeking information, where as uninterested
pupils use time memorizing.

Students can only pursue scholastic learning if they are

motivated. Motivation is a significant factor for learning .As suggested
by Uguroglu & Walbert (1979), motivation is an imperative contributor
to academic learning and enhancement of student’s achievement,
Researches suggested that diverse outcomes like persistence in
performance and learning are related to motivation (Deci &Ryan, 1985).
There are three types of motivation, according to self determination
theory (Ryan & Deci, 2000); these types are extrinsic motivation, a
motivation and intrinsic motivation.
According to Deci (1975), extrinsic motivation refers to a

wide variety of behaviour that is exhibited for the end means rather
than for own sake, this can be further classified into different types
i.e. introjections, identification and external regulation. The
introjections regulation starts with an internal reason for actions, the
amount to which behaviour is judged and valued for the individual,
perceived as selected by oneself, then internalization of motives
becomes synchronized through identification, where as external
regulated behaviour is channelled through constraints and rewards.
A motivation refers to a state in which an individual is neither

intrinsically nor extrinsically motivated, the individual feels
incompetent and perceive his/her behaviour is caused by forces
beyond their control.
The third type of motivation is intrinsic motivation, in this

type the individual derives pleasure and satisfaction from participating
in activities (Deci, 1975).
In academics intrinsic motivation plays a vital role, where

achievements, academic learning and competency are concerned.
According, to Deci and Ryan (1985), they hypothesize that intrinsic
motivation stalk out from the inherent psychological need of self-
determination and competence. Several studies have concluded that
from childhood through adolescence, across diverse population, those
having higher academic intrinsic motivation are more competent,
having significantly superior academic achievements and lower
anxiety and less extrinsic motivation and more positive perception of
their competency(Gottfried, A.W., Gottfried, Cook, & Morris, 2005). It
is also evident that particularly intrinsic motivation is related to

significant learning outcomes (Love, Love, & Northcraft, 2010;

Svinicki, 1998) and may have immense influence on learning than
even cognitive skills (Lepper & Chabay, 1985).
Students can be taken as “strategic learners”, the focus mostly

is in getting good grades in college, they avoid challenges that damage
their potential academic reputation and avoid those challenges that
make them uncomfortable and hinder their performance, and therefore
they fail often to develop real and deep understanding of the course
subject matter. According to Bain (2004) to keep away from this
problem, he suggested the following strategies for instructors, in the
literature on “best practices”:
· Environment should be created where students learn by dealing,

intriguing significant problems, employ in authentic tasks and to
study their own mental models of reality- try to involve them in
considerable emotional occurrence where they invalidate their
own “theories in use” (p.18) and have a wisdom of control over
their own education, work with others and obtain advance
feedback of any cumulative judgment of their learning (p.18)
· Make comprehensive exams giving them ample opportunity to

show their competence (p.36)
· Facilitate students to keep the main questions of the course in the

forefront constantly (p.38)
· Educate students to analyze and examine a book before reading it

(p.88)
· Assess and anticipate both intellectual and personal development

(pp.189-190): intellectual development- understanding material,
learning to reason from facts, to utilize concepts and to engage
in thinking and conversation; personal development-
understanding ones emotion, abilities, limits, insights, nature,
assumption and develop a sense of responsibility towards one’s
self and others, the capability to use compassion, and capacity
to understand and employ one’s emotion.
According to Bain (2004), when students are intrinsically and

genuinely interested in solving problems real learning occurs.

In today’s competitive world practicing managers have

realized the significance of interpersonal skills referred as “soft skills”
for managerial effectiveness. Over the years business institute have
realized the importance of understanding human behaviour which
determines the effectiveness of managers. In this challenging
environment interpersonal skills are strongly tied to the need for
organizations to keep high performing employees. Behavioural skills
have been rated as a very important factor in the evaluation of job
candidates, and in particular, in the decision to hire recent college
graduates (e.g., Alsop, 2004, Cappelli, 1995; Merritt, 2004; Porter &
McKibbon, 1988). Due to this preference for soft skills, it would
apparently elevate the importance of OB classes in college programs.
As organizations are complex systems therefore it is important to
understand and deal with human behaviour effectively, this leads to
the significance of OB course.
There is some confirmation that intrinsically motivated pupils

become more fully devoted and more legitimately engaged in the
materials to be learned (Vansteenkiste, Simons, Lens, Sheldon, & Deci,
2004). Facts suggests that students who study a course only to get
good grade, do not achieve as much as those who learn, as they are
intrinsically interested in the understanding of the concept, as they
do not think critically, infer problems thoroughly, synthesize logically
, or analyze information and data systematically. Students that are
extrinsically motivated usually select easier problems where as
intrinsically motivated will search for challenging responsibilities,
tasks that display creativity and innovation, will take moderate
intellectual risks, make fewer mistakes, and achieve better under difficult
conditions (Edwards & Edwards, 1999; Lepper, 1988; Pittman, Emery,
& Boggiano, 1982).
The researcher’s interest in undertaking this research was an

effort to enhance the students’ intrinsic interest in the Organizational
behavior course and to determine which features in a course contribute
to enhance the intrinsic motivation of a student and to evaluate
difference in the intrinsic motivation that might be present in BBA
students compared with BS-J students.
Methodology
Design:
Mixed method was used in this research, quantitative as well
as qualitative method, while investigating into the various qualitative

approaches, it is inferred that phenomenological approach will be

used to understand the students perception about the organizational
behaviour classes, it also aims to understand the experience of the
participants with the phenomenon of organizational behaviour course.
Quantitative method will identify the variables that influence intrinsic
motivation on students learning. This study will enrich the researcher
to better understand intrinsic motivation variables, their effect on
learning and help the researcher to analyse her own predetermined
ideas about the course.
Sample:
For quantitative analysis the sample size for the study was
the four OB classes from Fall 2012, it was random sampling every fifth
student was picked, the sample size consisted of 80 students from
both BBA and BS Joint program. Among the sample, 61.4%
respondents age were from 18 to 20 years, 32.8% were from 21to 22
years of age and 5.7% were 22 to 24 years of age. Male students
sample size was 52.8% and 47.1% were females. There were35.7%
students from the third semester, 5.7% from the fourth semester, 37.1%
from the fifth semester, 7.1% from sixth semester, 11.4% from the
seventh semester and 2.9 % were from eighth semester.75.7%
respondents were from BBA and 24.3% were from BS-J.
As Phenomenological approach was used in this study for

qualitative analysis, therefore for the study two focus groups
consisting of six students were interviewed, as it is a purposive sample
i.e. those participant were selected who have completed the OB course
in different semesters in Fall 2012 , to gain insight on student’s
perception about the organizational behaviour (OB) course. As
suggested by Sorrell and Redmond (1995) mainly phenomenological
interviews are on one-to-one basis, yet, these interviews can also
take place in groups where each respondent communicates his/her
point of view. This append that group- interviews help in adding
important information and insight into a phenomenon. As the sample
group consists of only six people, therefore, semi-structured
(Appendix-2b) interview were conducted.
Instrument:
To measure ‘Intrinsic Motivation” of students, Motivated
Strategies for Learning Questionnaire or MSLQ (Pintrich & DeGroot,

1990; Pintrich et al., 1993) was used and the Learner Empowerment
Scale (LES: Frymier et al., 1996; Weber, Martin, & Cayanus, 2005) was
used to measure the variables that empower students to learn
(Appendix-2a).
To investigate student’s perception about the OB course, semi
– structured interview were conducted. (Appendix-2)
Results
Qualitative Analysis
Subsequently after going through the interview data it was

observed that the interviews could be roughly divided into two major
codes:
· To explore the variables that cause intrinsic motivation
· To analyze student perception about the usefulness of OB

course content?
A:1 Variable that cause intrinsic motivation?
One thing was evident, the participants talked about the

interest level in the student that intrinsically motivates a student, that
was, their passion, aim in life, knowledge, something that brings a
change in them, but all the respondents talked about the interest in
the subject matter that intrinsically motivates them. There statements
were:
Respondent 1. ‘It is my interest in a particular course that drives me

to a class, in my wild dreams also I can’t think of bunking my class
and desperately wait for the class, so it is the interest factor.’
They all believed that it is the teacher’s enthusiasm, the course design
that includes activities, novelty, curiosity are some of the factors that
drives them to the class and the rest of the respondents joined and
agreed to it. One student added as:

Respondent 2. ‘I never had liking for the course but the teacher’s
enthusiasm , concepts, examples and activities are so interesting
that eventually I have developed an interest about the course and
can’t think of absences.’
Researcher further probed the focus group by asking, is it the grades

that intrinsically motivates a student for a course or the mastery over
a subject. There was a pause three of them had an opinion that it is
the mastery over a subject that motivates you to study. One of the
participants added:
Respondent 3. ‘You do forty eight -courses, in all the courses you

can’t have mastery, and it is only some of the courses in which you
want to have mastery as they are relevant to your interest”.
Further participants added that the concepts you learn and the
practicality is more important rather than grade, one of the participants
quoted his experience by saying:
Respondent 4. ‘I got an A grade in a particular course, but I hated

the class so very badly, as I had to rote learn everything, I think
grade is not important when the concepts are not clear, if the teacher
is simply showing slides and quoting examples from the book ,even
if you are interested, this interest will gradually vanish, it is the
activities, practical example from the world where you are living,
things that are novel, teacher’s concepts and enthusiasm all leads
to learning rather than grades, he further added saying unless you
are not sure how something will help you in future you will not be
even motivated’
Respondent 5.”In the course I enjoy the readings, they are more
interesting and helped me to see the concepts connection to the real
world, I love cases, the extra readings were especially helpful for me
to understand current issues, I love those classes were we can speak
and get our issues and voices heard, rather than asked to be quiet
as we are running out of time, my motivation gets down and I start
hating those classes.”
Respondent 6.”I love those classes which has the element of curiosity
in them, which the teacher builds, making the student more interested

in the subject and enabling them to attend the classes regularly

which helps them satisfy their curiosity which was built.”
Therefore, it can be summed up by saying that variables

that intrinsically motivate a student to come to the class are interest,
knowledge, teacher’s enthusiasm, interactive classes, the course
design, autonomy and novelty and they want to learn those concepts
that will enhance their competency in future and also wants to see the
relevance of the course with future practicality.
A:2 Student perception about the usefulness of OB course content?
The themes that emerged from the student perception about

the usefulness of OB course content fell under headings:
(i)Behavioural skill: The first theme that was very obvious among
the participants was that OB is a course that develops “people skills”.
Respondent 1. ‘OB deals with three independent variables that are;

individual, group, and structure and their relations with different
dependent variables like job satisfaction, deviance behaviour,
turnover etc. It talks about how you will deal with different people
in organization, the different personalities found, and their behaviour
pattern and to be successful you need to have a clear and strong
understanding of all this that makes this course very useful’
Dependent variables and independent variables: As a manger once

these graduates are hired has the responsibility to control the
dependent variables that are turnover, deviance behaviour,
absenteeism and increase productivity, job satisfaction and
organizational commitment, so whether you work for a small company,
service industry, product industry, a multinational company or local
company, you have the pressure to deal with these issues. OB as a
course gives you insight about these variables and some contingency
answers to pull through. As said by one of the participants:
Respondent 2. ‘OB is a core course, it actually expose you to so

many realities that you are suppose to face in the real practical
world, it is a very important and useful course’
Respondent 3. ‘The concepts that are taught in the course are so

practical that it is not only important to be successful in organization
, but you can even apply on college and personal level, for example
I especially like the personality topic , I have started observing
people as I have a friend, who is a Mach, I can see it, his behaviour,
communication all can be clearly seen ,what I had observed while
the teacher was giving me these concept, now I know how to behave
with him, actually now I know how to deal with him, so you can see
the usefulness of this course, it makes you more sensible’.
The exposure of dependent and independent variable, according to

the participants is very important in the practical world.
(ii) Contingency approach: No two people are same nor their

behaviour is same, therefore the participants talked about the
usefulness of OB by saying it prepare us for if -then situation.
Respondent 1. “Well, it prepares us for the practical world.”
Respondent 2 . “It exposes us to different situations which we might

encounter in the organization.”
Respondent 3. “Let me tell you, you can even judge people by their
behaviour and then deal with them accordingly.”‘I have my passion
to know and understand human variable it is so interesting and
challenging which I have explored in OB, I can’t think at present of
anything.’
Respondent 4. “It is a good course ,I should say but I am not a

people oriented person the topics like negotiation, organization
change appeals me ,I am still not sure that how it will help me but as
it is a course I think it will, can’t say much at this level.’
Respondent 5. “I was not sure about the course in the beginning,

but as I matured in this course it gave me more of self awareness and
awareness about others, I used to be confused earlier that why is the
other person taking me wrong, when I don’t have those intentions,
after taking the course I got few answers to my issues, it is an useful
course and expose you to the challenges and opportunities you will
face in the upcoming time.”

Respondent 6.” it is an useful course but I hope to remember the

contents after wards, I feel it teaches you the art to deal with people
,to understand their attitudes, values and how to predict their
behaviour, it’s an interesting course, I must say “.
Therefore, it can be concluded up by saying that majority of the

participants strongly felt that OB teaches them how to deal with
contingencies, it does not give clear cut answers to so many issues
but touches them and create awareness. It is a very useful course as it
prepares them how they need to behave in the organization.
Quantitative Analysis
The results were tabulated on excel sheet and analyzed by

using SPSS version 17. A Linear Regression analysis was used to
assess the effect on intrinsic motivation on students learning (See
Table 2 & 3). The statistical analysis [(R² =.285, F (27, 132) = 27.132, p
<.05)] reveals that intrinsic motivation effects on learning of the
students.
To examine the relationship between intrinsic motivation and

perceived usefulness of course a bivariate correlation was performed
(Table 4 & 5), which depicts positive correlation intrinsic motivation
and perceived usefulness of the course (r =.534; p<0.000, N=70).
Moreover, results also predicts positive correlation between intrinsic
motivation and overall satisfaction with the course (r =.688; p<0.000,
N=70). This result illustrates that intrinsic motivation is significantly
associated with perceived usefulness and satisfaction with the course,
which is consistent with formulated hypotheses.

Table 1
Demographic Information of the Participants
Demogra phic Frequency Percentage Demog raphic Frequency Percenta ge%

Information % Information
Age Programme
18 to 20 years 43 61.4% BBA (Hons)
21 to 22 years 23 32.8% BS (Joint) 53 75.7%
22 to 24 years 04 5.7% 17 24.3%
Gender Specialization s
Male 37 52.8% Accounting & 2 2.8%
Female 33 47.1% Finan ce 4 5.7%
Semester Economics & 4 5.7%
rd
3 Semester 25 35.7% Finan ce 11 15.7%
4th Semester 4 5.7% Economics 25 35.7%
5th Semester 26 37.1% Finan ce
6th Semester 5 7.1% Human Resource 4 5.7%
th
7 Semester 8 11.4% Management 19 27.1%
8th Semester 2 2.9% Management 1 1.4%
Marketin g
Supply Chain
Table 2
Analysis of Variance for Linear Regression with Intrinsic Motivation
as Predictor of Learning
Model SS df MS F Sig.
Regression 68.792 1 68.792 27.132 .000a
Residual 172.408 68 2.535
Total 241.200 69
a. Predictors (Constant), Intrinsic Motivation
b. Dependent Variable: Perceived Usefu lness
Table 3
Coefficients for Linear Regression with Intrinsic Motivation as
Predictor of Learning
Model Un-stan dardized Standardized T Sig.

Coefficient Coefficient
B SE B
Constant 6.276 1.343 4.673 .000

Intrinsic Motivation .192 .037 .534 5.209 .000
a. Dependent Variable: Perceived Usefulness

Table 4
A Correlation between Intrinsic Motivation and Perceived
Usefulness
Intrinsic Motivation
Perceived Usefulness Pearson Correlation .534**

Sig. (2-tailed) .000
N 70
**. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).
Table 5
A Correlation between Intrinsic Motivation and Satisfaction with
the Course
Intrinsic
Motivation
Satisfaction With the Pearson Correlation .688**
Course
Sig. (2-tailed) .000
N 70
**. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).
Figure 1

Discussion
At the start of this research, it was eminent, that the problem

the researcher identified and wanted to study was, ‘to explore the
variables that causes intrinsic motivation and to analyze students’
perception about the usefulness of the OB course’ .
The respondents of the study also synthesis that if a student

has intrinsic passion, the aim of life is clear and any thing that will
improve his future, the individual gets motivated,they also stated
that the course design that includes activities, some uniqueness
that makes them curious are also associated with intrinsic
motivation.There was a strong consensus among the respondents
regarding the feeling of autonomy given to them in class that leads to
healthy interaction, by getting their views,issues and ambiguity heard
and strongly require feedback on it.
As suggested by different researchers that learning can only

take place when there is intrinsic motivation, this enhances free choice
consistency in learning.Intrinsic motivation can be enhanced by using
supportive feedback and interaction, clearly defined goals emphasizing
over grades and by using application oriented practical exercise (Young
,2005). Even, Hiller and Hietapello (2001) suggested that when students
have “voice” in the evaluation process it will lead to increase in
intrinsic motivation.
From a respondent it was evident that readings that are

given from real world scenario also makes them intrinsically
motivated,but this point cannot be generalized ,as it has been observed
that individuals who have passion for relating the theoretical concepts
to the real world and want to quench their thirst of curiosity,knowledge
and are internally motivated are the individuals who fall in this group.
It can be comprehended with refrence to the respondents

view that the variables that intrinsically motivates an individual is the
interest, thirst for knowledge,interactive classes with autonomy and
feedback, novelty, course design , teacher’s enthusiasm and its
relevance with the future .

Another variable that was under study was the analysis of

students perception about the usefulness of Organizational Behaviour
course. Interestingly, it is evident from the study conducted by Fred
Luthans and his associates (May, 1988) analyzed what activities
managers perform that helps them to move up quickly on job,they
studied more than 450 managers, the result stated that those managers
are successful(in terms of speed) who spend 48% of their time in
networking. There had been recent studies in Israel,Australia,US,Italy
and Japan that authenticate the link between social relationship
,networking and success within an organization as stated by Robbins
et al. (2011).
These studies offer an important insight by confirming the

strong link between effective managers and communication, and thus
lay the importance of Organizational Behaviour as a course. When
this aspect was analyzed from the participants perspective , most of
them stated that it is a core course and it exposes them to realities
which they will face in the real world, it explains the different
personalities one will encounter, it provides you awareness about
oneself and others and some contingency answers to deal with them
,which is found to be important.
Further the hypothesis formulated was ‘Intrinsic motivation

impacts positively upon students learning.’ The focus group
conducted, strongly suggest that intrinsically motivated students
learning is strong, hands on activities , novelty enhances their interest,
the results are in line with findings, for example, Bergin(1999) suggested
that interest in the subject matter could be improved by helping student
see relevance of the subject matter to their own situations, activities,
and increasing novelty.
Additionally, the students who are intrinsically motivated

their perception about the course is very different in comparison to
take a course just to earn grade. Evidence proves that students who
study only for grades is never able to achieve as much as those who
learn because they are intrinsically motivated in the matter; they never
analyze or synthesis issues logically, systematically and critically.
Students that are externally motivated usually select easy problems,
where as intrinsically motivated students will search for challenging,
creative, innovative, intellectual problems, will make very few errors

and perform superior under complex conditions (Edwards & Edwards,

1999; Lepper, 1998; Pittman, Emery, & Boggiano, 1982). As even
suggested by Bergin (1999), there is a plethora of evidence showing
positive correlation with student’s interest and learning outcomes.
Students have more “influential” relationship with their

courses in general, and with OB course in particular. The current
research provides limited evidence for this problem, as students are
no doubt drawn to professional degree because of the employment
prospects. If they were only looking for job opportunities, rather
than an interest in the subject matter of HR than their perception will
be different and would likely pursue the MBA degree. For illustration,
De Marie and Aloise- Young (2003) found out that business majors
compared with education majors, were considerably less likely to say
that they chose their major because of “interest area” or “interest in
the class” and notably more likely to say they picked their major
because it would help them “find a job more easily” and lead to “high
salary”. Looking at the harsh reality and belonging towards an
underdeveloped country, there is a great pressure over students to
take a specialization course that may earn them lucrative job prospects.
The second hypothesis of this study was to explore the

whether intrinsic motivation effects learning, the statistical analysis
of the study reveals that there is a strong relation between intrinsic
motivation of a student and learning. Schiefele (1996) in his study
investigated the effect of interest on text learning. He found that
highly interested readers find material more meaningful and are more
able to assimilate text material more completely. Though student
interest has been refereed to as a variable impacting both learning
and motivation (Frymier, 1994; Gorham & Millette, 1997; Richmond &
Gorham, 1996).
The limitation in this study was that, the data and interview
was collected and taken from single business school and from those
OB sections that the researcher teaches, there could have been a
more detailed study by also analyzing the different demographic
variable provided and their relation to the topic researched. Since
only those sections were tested whom the researcher taught, there
might be a possibility of biasness in answering done by the
participants. Going forward, the researcher even tested the relation

between intrinsic motivation and course grades, as they were a part of

the demographics. Due to time constrain there could have been an in-
depth study on this research as there are lots of variables coming in
the researcher’s mind that could have been unfolded in this research
to give a more rich insight to the reader.
Conclusion
In summary, the research was to explore the variables that
cause intrinsic motivation and its effect on learning and to analyze
students’ perception about Organizational Behaviour course. The
findings of the study supports this view that an intrinsically motivated
student has a positive effect on their learning and variables like
supportive feedback, interaction, course design, practical oriented
exercise, knowledge thirst, curiosity, teacher’s enthusiasm, practicality
of concepts and interest are associated with intrinsic motivation and
has a positive impact on learning. The results further supported that
intrinsically motivated students perception and satisfactions about
OB course is positive which was also proven statistically.
Teachers need to closely identify the variables in this research

that leads to intrinsic motivation, as participants mentioned that, there
should be examples, activities beside the text book that create interest
in the students that motivates them to come to the class. Students
should have a voice in their evaluation that gives them a feeling of
autonomy that also leads to intrinsic motivation. The study clearly
identify that the teacher enthusiasm, passion plays a very important
role in developing intrinsic motivation, teachers instead of teaching
should move towards learning, bringing a permanent change in them,
further they should design the syllabus, keeping the practicality of
the application on job that also enhances their perception about
courses that will further aid them in selection of specialization. They
should also work towards moulding the mindset of the lost students,
channelling their energy in right and constructive direction.
Thus, teachers teaching courses should create course

outlines in such a way that intrinsically motivates a student to learn
and change their perception. Enthusiasm and passion of the teacher
plays a very important role in maximizing the effect. Course redesign
should be an ongoing process and incorporate a variable that
intrinsically motivates them towards learning a course.

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Research
Research Short Run and Long Run Performance of Initial . . .
SHORT RUN AND LONG RUN

PERFORMANCE OF INITIAL
PUBLIC OFFERINGS IN PAKISTAN
Abdul Raheman1, M. Khalid Sohail2, Bushra Zulfiqar3, M. Ahsan4,
Aamir Ahmed5 and Sohail Sheeraz6
Abstract
This research analyzes the performance of IPO’s on first
trading day and in long run for firms listed on Karachi stock
exchange during period 2000-2011. First trading day IPO
performance is measured with market adjusted abnormal return.
Sample for first trading day IPO performance consists of 69 IPOs.
Results show that on first trading day market awards investors with
mean abnormal return of 53.82%. First trading day returns are
analyzed on sectoral and yearly basis as well. Results show that
performance of IPOs in some sectors was better than others and
similarly in some years IPOs performance was better than others.
The performance of IPO’s was at peak during year 2008. For

long run performance which is measured through cumulative
abnormal return model, sample consists of 57 IPOs held at Karachi
stock exchange during period 2000-2009. To observe long run
performance for three years, those IPOs are not taken that has not
completed three years period. The long run performance is measured
on weekly, fortnightly, and monthly returns basis up to three years.
There are 156 weeks, 78 fortnights and 36 months. Cumulative
abnormal returns show that market outperforms in long run and
IPOs underperform.
Keywords: IPO, Karachi Stock Exchange, market adjusted abnormal

return, cumulative abnormal return.
1- University Institu te of Ma nagement Sciences, PMAS-Arid Agricultu re

University Rawalpindi
2- Department of Management Sciences, COMSATS Institute of Information
Technology, Islamabad
3-4-5 & 6- University Institute of Management Sciences, PMAS-Arid Agriculture
University Rawalpindi

Short Run and Long Run Performance of Initial . . . Research
Introduction
When a firm goes public, it becomes under more examination and

inspection by the people and investors. Such firms are also monitored
by authorities such as stock exchanges, security exchange commission
of Pakistan etc. to make sure that such firms may not deceive their
shareholders and general public who might be interested in making
investing in those firms. After issuing shares company has more
responsibility than before. On the other hand investors will be more
interested in company than before as now they have stake in it.
Whenever businesses plan to expand, they need funds and for that
purpose they have to select one of four options; 1) retain earning, 2)
borrowing money from banks, 3) issue bond or 4) issue equity. Small
businesses and partnership businesses use first two options to raise
money; however a corporation has all four means to raise funds. Every
method of financing has its own merits and demerits which depend on
the circumstances. First of all company go for internal financing to
capitalize investment opportunities which is the easiest way as they
don’t have to go anywhere to search for capital but along with this
company have to see their dividend policy like if they have policy of
giving stable dividends then they can’t stop giving dividend because
otherwise it will be against the interest of company. If it is depleted
then company go for external financing. Among external financing
debt is given preference but after a certain level it is no more sensible
to issue more debt so company go for preferred stock and after its
depletion company issue convertible securities and as a last resort
equity is issued. Shareholders don’t like company to issue further
equity and if company does, it is taken as a negative signal representing
that market price of share is undervalued as the managers better know
about the condition of the company and they are trying to get benefit
from overvaluation of their stock.
When a new security comes into the market, a question is raised that
how much to pay for that security. To answer this question investors
use different approaches while all lie on the expected future benefits

of that security. Some investors rely on the past earning of that

company. In some countries a prospectus is issued and from that
investor evaluates the security and corporation. Sometimes these
earnings are manipulated to misguide the investor about the truth of
the business which leads them to pay idealistic price for the security.
Sometimes it is in the favor of the company to manipulate their
earnings downward and sometimes it is favorable to manipulate
upward. Managers have more discretion on selecting any accounting
method to use, they know better than others about company’s risk,
business and opportunities, so they follow such procedure which
might shows performance of that business in a way which is not the
reality but favorable to managers or company. The most common
terminology used for these kind of activities is called earning
management. It is found by most researchers that venture-backed
represent lower manipulation in earning and venture-backed
corporations perform better than non-venture-backed corporations.
Because of lots of reasons there is greater chance of occurrence of
such activities at the time of IPO which took the interest of researchers
towards itself. They are legal but can misguide the investor. Lot of
research has done on this topic by taking different variables and from
different dimensions. Some uses annual data while some used quarter
data. They involve the manipulation of accounts and are based on
manager’s judgment. Potential area of such manipulation is that of
accruals. These accruals are one way or other used as proxy for
manipulation in earning (Gaioielli and Carvalho, 2008).
This study contributes to literature in performance of firms after IPO

in short run as well as in long run. As KSE is more volatile market in
the world, therefore this research contributes the existing literature
as long run performance is not measure after the period of three years
in KSE. So this research will help the investor whether they retain
shares for longer run or not considering the volatile nature of KSE.
This study can be generalized not only for Pakistan but for other
countries as well. As we all know stock market is much sensitive to
information coming into it, it responds quickly to that information.

Value of a stock depends heavily on information. Extensive research

has done on the performance of IPO’s. Most of researches have shown
that stock market rewards its investors with positive abnormal returns
on first trading day. The specific objectives of this study are to analyze
the IPO performance on first trading day using abnormal returns and
also to analyze the long run performance of IPO’s on weekly, fortnightly,
and monthly returns up to three years.
Literature Review
Stock markets came into existence to protect investors against their

investment. It facilitates investors in trading. Karachi stock exchange
is known as the most unpredictable market of the words. Stock market
is very much sensitive to any information that comes into it. Sometimes
broker manipulate this information in their favor which lead investor
to suffer losses. In 2005 due to a stock market crash investor lose a lot.
Brokers were believed to manipulate but no appraisable step was taken.
Only show cause was sent to 88 brokers. To prevent any such
happening in future stock exchange demutualization bill was approved
by National assembly (on October 8, 2009) and parliament (on March
27, 2012). Sohail and Nasr (2007) was the first study to our information
on IPO performance in Pakistan which took sample of 50 IPOs held
during period of 2001 to 2006.
Sohail and Raheman (2010) studied the short run market-adjusted

performance of IPOs under different state of economy; normal, boom
and recession. They took sample of 73 IPOs of Karachi stock exchange
covering period 2000-2009. KSE index is used as base for division of
market into these three states of economy. This study found that
Pakistani IPO market performs better in short run pleasing investors
with unusual positive returns. Wealth relative model was used to
confine the impact of these unusual returns. Sector-wise analysis
indicates that some sectors performed better even in recession. Year-
wise analysis showed year 2008 an excellent performance year.

Sahoo and Rajib (2010) studied the IPO undervaluation on the first
day trading and their poor performance after that as compared to
market benchmark. Focal point of the study is the valuation of price
performance of IPO up to 36 month including first day. The study
conducted on a sample of 92 IPO’s of India and found that they did
not perform well in long and short run. The article shows that on
average Indian IPO do not perform well on the first day compared to
market index. The result shows that IPO underperformance is more
seen in first year trading i.e. up to 12 months. On the other hand long
run performance is measured with wealth relative and BHAR.
Calculation of wealth relative for 12 month,24month, and 36month
from the first day of trading. Wealth relative greater than 1 shows
better IPO performance than market and vice versa. The BHAR results
showed that in 1st year the IPOs did not perform but for 24 and 36month
they outperform as value of BAHR for this period is positive.
Regression analysis is used to check factors influencing
underperformance. Results showed that first day return, offer size,
leverage at IPO date, timing of issue were extensively influencing
underperformance. Some factors have no impact on underperformance
like age of the IPO firm, rate of subscription, promoter group’s retention,
and price-to-book value.
Rizwan and khan (2007) studied the long run performance of private
versus public sector IPOs of Pakistan. The study aimed to examine
that to what extent private sector IPOs and public sector IPOs are
different in context of under pricing in Pakistan, why under pricing is
done and how to compare long run performance of public and private
IPO. Sample taken was of 35 IPOs from Karachi stock exchange where
7 were private sector IPOs and rests were public IPOs held in period
2001-2006. Buy and hold returns were calculated to analyze the short
term stock performance. To analyze the performance market adjusted
returns which were the difference between initial return and respective
market return were also calculated. Study found that initial abnormal
returns have positive relationship with corporation size indicating
that government sold big corporations at cheaper rates. In long run

public sector perform better than that of private. Empirical results

indicate that in short run private sector IPOs were considerably more
underpriced than that of public sector. Study also found that signaling
model does not work to explain initial excessive returns of Pakistan
IPOs.
Sohail and Nasar (2007) studied the IPOs of Pakistan. The purpose of
the study was to find out the initial public offerings performance in
Pakistan. They have taken sample on 50 IPO companies listed in
Karachi stock exchange from year 2000 to year 2006. In year 2000 to
year 2006 total 55 IPO’s took place. Different methodologies (market
adjusted abnormal return, Buy and hold returns, cumulative abnormal
return etc) were used in order to measure the performance of initial
public offering in Pakistan. According to this article an average under-
pricing in KSE index during year 2000 to year 2006 is 35.66% and buy-
and-hold abnormal return and cumulative abnormal return shows
negative results for first year of its listing period. Furthermore 15 out
of 50 IPO’s (30%) provide negative initial abnormal return, While 35
out of 50 IPO’s (70%) provide positive access abnormal return. For
entire sample market adjusted abnormal return (MAAR) is 35.66.The
variables used are P/E, market capitalization, M.V gross proceeds,
size etc. According to this article, investments in IPO companies have
negative return over a period of one year after listing.
Procianoy and cigerza (2007) studied the short run and long run
performance among India, china, and Brazil. The purpose of this study
was to compare the performance of IPOs issued during 2001-2006 by
the Brazil, India, and china companies. The short run and long run
performance is checked by different methodology, short run
performance is calculated through initial return, e.g. difference between
first day closing price and offer price. For long run performance is
measured using BHAR and average monthly market-adjusted return.
Linear regression is used to clarify the IPOs performance. dependent
variable is taken from short time period performance(return) and from
long-run performance (BHAR).independent variable used from

previous studies, like interest rate, inflation, country risk, FDI, GDP
growth etc .193 IPOs is included in the sample 29 from brazil 91 from
India and 70 IPOs from china. Data is taken from Bombay stock
exchange, BOVESPA stock exchange, and Hong Kong stock exchange.
Due lack of data of Chinese offer calculation of initial return are not
possible in case of china the initial return of brazil and India are
7.10% and 30.68%.buy-and –hold –market adjusted return for brazil
10.94% and negative for india-7.06%. The result shows us that IPOs
of china and Brazil are over perform MMAR result for Brazil, India,
and china were 1.06%,-0.66%, and 3.65%.
Alvarez and Gonzalez (2001) studied the long run Spanish IPO
performance from 1987-1997 holding a sample of 56 companies. Data
is gathered from Madrid stock exchange and Spanish security
commission. Stocks return of initial moments of investors, first trading
day and in long run for 12, 36 and 60 months after initial day are
calculated. Different (Buy and hold returns, fama & fench three factor
model) methodologies and benchmarks were used to determining the
strength of IPOs performance. Buy and hold return and fama & fench
have given different results. The study found that unusual returns
for first year are positive while for 3rd and 5th year they are negative.
Aggarwal et. al. (2001) studied about tactic behind the under-pricing
of initial public offering and selling of share at the time of its expiration
of lockup duration. They took sample of 621 non-internet IPOs and
internet related IPOs during period year 1993 to year 1999. The purpose
of this paper is to check manager tactics to under-price the IPO, its
information which flow in the market and selling the share at the end
of lockup duration. According to this paper manager intentionally
under-priced IPO at first day trading to increase their wealth by selling
a part of their share at lockup period’s end, in fact this under-pricing
create positive information in the market and ultimately the demand
curve shifts upward for these stock which allow the manage selling of
their shares at higher price on the expiration of lock up duration
(usually 90 to 180 days after IPO).They used regression model to
gauge the impact of different variables on under pricing which show

that first-day IPO under-pricing and manager lockup shares, analyst

coverage research and under-pricing, research coverage and price of
stock throughout lockup period end and manager selling of lockup
share at its expiration period are positively correlated with each other.
Khurshed et. al. (1999) studied the long- run IPO performance. This
study intended to find that either long-run IPO performance is affected
by factors before IPO with sample of 240 UK issuing companies for
period of 1991-1995. Initial trading information was obtained by using
UK equity database. Market adjusted abnormal return are calculated
through HGSC index. The study reveals the positive relation between
firm size and long-run performance. Larger the size of the company,
better the performance and less risk the company is. This study also
found that being multinational is associated with higher performance
and it showed that greater the amount of equity sold at issue, poorer
the performance will be in long-run.
Firth (1997) studied the Long run stock performance of New Zealand’s
IPOs where huge number of companies were listed during 1977-1997.
In New Zealand most important factor for valuation of companies is
their expected earning mentioned in their prospectus. They took sample
of 143 IPOs covering period 1979-1987. Company relevant data was
taken from its prospectus while stock data was taken from stock
exchange and local database. For analysis they considered the
abnormal stock returns which were the difference between company’s
stock returns and equivalent companies stock returns of the same
period. Those equivalent companies were from the same industry and
are close in terms of market capitalization. Returns were the average of
monthly returns. They found wealth relative where wealth relative of
more than one indicate the outperformance and below than one shows
underperformance. 1st day abnormal return was 25.87%. Regression
analysis revealed that gross proceeds of IPO and retention of ownership
of pre-issue owners have no relation with IPO performance. Study
shows that cumulative average returns of 1st and 3rd month was
positive while that of 2nd, 12th,24th,36th,48th and 60th were negative.

In our study we focus on the methodology point of view i.e. the way
long run performance is measured. We applied CAR method. Fama
(1998) also preferred this model instead of BHAR model. In literature
long run performance is measured on monthly basis but in our study
we measured long run performance on weekly, fortnightly basis in
addition to monthly basis.
Research Methodology
In this study we have used market returns and stock return as variables
where KSE 100 Index is used as a proxy for market and any increase or
decrease in this index is taken as market return. This return is calculated
as
Rm=( It2 – It1 )/ It1
Where, Rm = market return during period t1 to t2, It1= KSE 100 index
at period t1 and It2= KSE 100 index at period t2.
While calculating on monthly basis t2 is current month KSE 100 index

and t1 is previous month KSE 100 index. Similar is for fortnight and
week. We calculated returns on first trading day, weekly, fortnightly,
and monthly basis for each IPO. For calculating weekly returns we
took every fifth observation, for fortnight every tenth and for month
every 22th observation of KSE100 against the respective trading days
for three years.
Similarly stock return is calculated from period t1 to t2. This period is

one day or whatever period is selected. T1 represents the starting
date of the period while t2 represents the end date of the period.
Rs=(Pt2 – Pt1) / Pt1

Where, Rs is stock return during period t1 to t2, Pt1 is closing price
of stock at first date of period and Pt2 is closing price of stock at
end date of period

While calculating on monthly basis p2 is current month’s closing

price and p1 is previous month’s closing price. Similar is for fortnight
and weekly returns. We calculated returns on first trading day, weekly,
fortnightly, and monthly basis for each IPO. For calculating weekly
returns we took every fifth observation, for fortnight every tenth and
for month every 22th observation of IPO trading days for three years.
In order to measure the returns, we have used abnormal return and
cumulative abnormal returns model.
Market adjusted abnormal returns
For analyzing first day trading we have used market adjusted abnormal
return. This measures the first day abnormal return of IPO. It is
calculated as the difference between first day stock return and
respective market return.
MAAR = first day stock return – respective day market return

MAAR = Rs,f - Rm,f
First day stock return is calculated as
Rs,f = (P1/Ps)-1
Where, Rs is stock return price on first trading day, P1 is stock
closing price on first trading day, Ps is stock subscription price
While respective market return is calculated as
Rm,f = (KSE100f /KSE 100s )-1
Where, Rm,f = market return from subscription of IPO to first trading
day of IPO, KSE100f = KSE100 at first trading day of IPO, KSE100s =
KSE100 at subscription date of IPO
Abnormal returns
Abnormal return is defined as the performance of IPO that varies from
market return. Abnormal returns are calculated as the difference
between stock returns and market returns. Abnormal returns are
normally calculated as the difference between the security return and
its expected return. Here it is assumed that market return is the expected
return for the securities. If stock performance is more than the respective

period’s market return then its abnormal return will be positive while
if its performance is weaker than respective period market return then
abnormal return will be negative. We calculated abnormal returns on
first trading day, weekly, fortnightly, and monthly basis for each IPO.
For calculating weekly returns we took every fifth observation, for
fortnight every tenth and for month every 22th observation of the
trading days for three years.
ARt = Rs,t - Rm,t
Where, Rs,t = stock return at time t, Rm,t = market return at time t
Cumulative abnormal return

Abnormal return is a measure of performance of IPO at a specific time
but it does not consider variations that normally occur over period.
To account for these variations Cumulative abnormal return is used
which is the summation of all abnormal returns over a period of time.
Cumulative abnormal returns provide Long run effect of initial public
offering. We calculated cumulative abnormal returns on first trading
day, weekly, fortnightly, and monthly basis for each IPO.
CARt = “ ARt
CARt = cumulative abnormal return at time t
“ ARt = summation of all abnormal returns till period t
t = week, fortnight or month
Based on the above models, we developed following hypothesis
H1: Stock market offer its investor abnormal returns on first trading
day
H2: Investor is rewarded negative abnormal return in long run
Sample and data

We have analyzed those IPOs which took place during period 2000 to
2010 and listed at Karachi stock exchange. For short run analysis
which is initial trading day, a sample of 69 IPOs while for long run
performance a sample of 57 IPOs was selected. Selection is based on
the listing data collected from Karachi Stock Exchange website. There
are 86 listed IPOs among which 10 were mergers while 7 were already
subscribed. We exclude these IPOs from our analysis because no

subscription dates were available for those already subscribed. We

excluded mutual funds, mergers, preferred stock, and companies which
were already listed. Data is collected from website of Karachi Stock
Exchange and brecorder.com. For long run analysis, the performance
is analyzed for three years which restricted our analysis to years 2010
as the IPOs in year 2010 and 2011 have not completed three years yet.
Data Analysis and Discussion
This section describes the results of our study and their interpretation.
Results are categories according to model used to measure the
performance. Performance of IPOs on first trading day is analyzed
through MAAR. First trading day IPO performance is viewed in context
of sectors and years. Long run performance of IPOs is measure through
cumulative abnormal returns.
Short Run Analysis (First Trading day)
We took sample of 69 IPOs occurring from 2000 to 2011 to analyze first

day return. Our study shows that on average MAAR is 53.82% with a
standard deviation of 1.71 as presented in following Table No.1. On
the other hand abnormal returns of 57 IPOs are 64.46% show that
underpricing is reduced in 2010 and 2011. Results can be shown in
table 1-B. Statistics shows that these results are significance. Results
show that some IPOs perform extremely well while performance of
some IPOs were poor with respect to market. Analysis shows that
overall Karachi stock exchange rewards its investors with considerable
abnormal return on first trading day. First table in the annexure presents
the market adjusted abnormal returns (MAAR) for these IPOs. This
MMAR means that if an investor buy stock from primary market and
sell it at the end of first trading day on secondary market then how
much excess return it earn from market.

Table 1-A
Initial Day Abnormal Return
N Mean Std. Deviation T stat Sig. (2-T ailed)
69 0.538207 1.7 11811 2.61167 0.011078
Sector Wise Initial Abnormal Returns
N Mean Std. Deviation T stat Sig. (2-T ailed)
20 53.82% 52.24% 4.40 0.00031
Table 1-B.
Initial Day Abnormal Return for 57-IPOs
N Mean Std. Deviation T stat Sig. (2-Tailed)
57 0.6446 1.8165231 2.723173 0.002310
Sector Wise Initial Abnormal Returns
N Mean Std. Deviation T stat Sig. (2-Tailed)
17 65 4.64% 50.61% 4.51 0.00027
Sector wise analysis reveals that some sectors’ IPOs perform better
while some sectors’ IPOs perform weaker than market. As shown in
table 2-(a) and 2-(b) that there were 3 sectors out of 20 whose market
adjusted abnormal returns were negative while rests of the sectors
perform better than that of market. Average sector wise abnormal
return presented in above table No. 1 was 53.82% with standard
deviation of 52.24%. This shows that on average performance of
IPOs on first trading day across sectors was better than market as
presented in table 2-(b).

Table 2-(a)
Sector-wise Average Abnormal Return
Abnormal
Sector Name No of IPOs Return
Fixed line telecommunication 5 -0.54%
Automobile and parts 1 -9.31%
Bank 10 174.14%
Construction and materials 5 14.03%
Oil and gas producers 4 94.02%
Chemicals 7 65.86%
Support services 1 58.61%
Industrial transportation 1 86.40%
General industrials 1 107.68%
Media 4 12.04%
Personal goods 7 -11.64%
Financial services 11 38.46%
Electricity 4 23.56%
Software n computer services 1 32.57%
Industrial metals and mining 2 31.09%
Real estate investment and services 1 99.35%
Segment 1 143.67%
Non life insurance 1 0.92%
Food producers 1 7.92%
Non life insurance 1 58.61%
Total 69 53.82%
Sector-wise average first IPO day’s returns are presented in the

following Table 2-(b)

Table 2-(b)
Sector wise average first IPO day’s returns
1s t day
1st IPO MARKET Abnormal
S# SECTOR day's return RETURN Returns
Fixed Line
1 Telecommunication (0.02 09) (0 .0156) (0.0054)
2 Automobile and Parts (0.00 50) 0.0881 (0.0931)
3 Bank 1.7958 0.0545 1.7414
Construction and
4 Materials 0.1501 0.0098 0.1403
5 Oil and Gas Producers 1.0470 0.1068 0.9402
6 Chemicals 0.6673 0.0088 0.6586
7 Support Services 0.8300 0.2439 0.5861
In dustrial
8 Transportation 0.7800 (0 .0840) 0.8640
9 General Industrials 1.1500 0.0732 1.0768
10 Media 0.0495 (0 .0709) 0.1204
11 Personal Goods (0.08 55) 0.0309 (0.1164)
12 Financial Services 0.4066 0.0220 0.3846
13 Electricity 0.2435 0.0080 0.2356
Software & Computer
14 Services 0.3620 0.0363 0.3257
In dustrial Metals and
15 Mining 0.4049 0.0940 0.3109
Real Estate , In vest. &
16 Services 1.0643 0.0708 0.9935
17 Segmen t 1.3850 (0 .0517) 1.4367
18 Non Life In surance (0.00 40) (0 .0132) 0.0092
19 Food Producers (0.01 16) (0 .0908) 0.0792
20 Non Life In surance 0.8300 0.2439 0.5861
Average 0.5520 0.0282 0.5352
Furthermore, sector-wise analysis is also made on broader sectoral

basis covering manufacturing, financial institutions and other services
sectors which is presented in table 2-( c ). The significant abnormal
returns are observed on first trading day as shown in following Figure
No.1. The investors of financial institution sectors can earn higher
return as compared to manufacturing and other services sectors.

Table 2- (c)
Analysis of Manufacturing, Financial Institutions and Other services

1st day
first IPO MARKET Abnormal
S# SECTOR day's return RETURN Returns t-Stat
1 Manufacturing 0.4180 0.0526 0.3654* 3.3201
Financial
2 Institution 0.7161 0.0691 0.6470* 4.4002
3 Other Services 0.5503 0.0142 0.5361* 3.821
Average 0.5520 0.0282 0.5382* 4.40
*significant at 1% level
Figure No. 1
Analysis of Manufacturing, Financial Institutions and Other
services
Year wise analysis shows that in some year IPO performance was
superior to that of others. In year 2008 highest performance of IPOs is
recorded. In year 2008 abnormal return was 195.95%. Overall year wise
market adjusted abnormal return was 45.86% with standard deviation
of 58.16%. During period 2000 to 2011 every year IPO performance
was better that market except year 2010. Results show than on average
performance of IPOs across years was better than market.

Table No. 3
Year -wise Abnormal Returns
N Mean Std. Deviation T Sig. (2-Tailed)
12 45.86% 58.16% 2.73 0.01954
Year-wsie Market Adjusted Abnormal Returns
YEAR No of IPOs MAAP
2000 3 0.0827
2001 2 0.0710
2002 4 0.1037
2003 3 0.6848
2004 10 0.3314
2005 14 0.3036
2006 2 1.0852
2007 9 0.7128
2008 9 1.9595
2009 3 0.1604
2010 6 -0.0108
2011 4 0.0188
TOTAL 69 53.82
Long Run Performance Analysis
We have measured the long run performance for three years. To

measure long run performance we took weekly, fortnightly, and
monthly returns. We calculated cumulative abnormal returns for 36
months, 78 fortnights and 156 weeks, in other words we get results
for three years. We calculated cumulative abnormal returns for every
week, fortnight, and month.
Weekly cumulative abnormal returns for a specific period mean that if

investor purchase IPO on second trading day of IPO and hold it for a
specific period then how much it earn. Cumulative abnormal return
for one week means that if investors keep it for one week then how

much it earn, cumulative abnormal return for week 2 means that if

investor keep it for two weeks then how much total return it earn and
so on. Positive value for a specific period means that IPO has
performed well than market in that period. Cumulative weekly abnormal
returns presented in Figure No. 2, shows that in long run IPO
underperform. Out of 156 weeks only 21,39,40,41 and 47th week
cumulative abnormal returns were positive while rests of the weeks
cumulative abnormal returns were negative. T stat shows that up to 10
weeks results were significant while afterwards they were
insignificance. If we take alpha at 10% then week 150-156 are also
significant.
Figure No. 2
Cumulative Weekly Abnormal Returns
Fortnightly cumulative abnormal returns for a specific period mean

that if investor purchase IPO on second trading day of IPO and hold
it for a specific period then how much it earn. Cumulative abnormal
return for one fortnight mean that if investors keep it for one fortnight
then how much it earn. Positive value for a specific period means that
IPO has performed well than market in that period. Annexure 2 contains
the cumulative fortnightly abnormal returns. Out of 78 fortnights only
9-13, 18-26 fortnights’ returns were positive. Mean if an investor hold
till these periods then he will earn more returns then market. T-stat
shows that only in 2nd and 3rd fortnight results was significance while

they were insignificance for rests of the fortnights. At alpha of 10%

CAR for 4th, 76th, 78th, and 79th fortnight also become significant.
Overall results indicate that IPO underperform.
Figure No. 3
Cumulative Fortnightly Abnormal Returns
Monthly cumulative abnormal returns for a specific period mean that

if investor purchases IPO on second trading day of IPO and hold it
for a specific period then how much it earn. Positive value for a specific
period means that IPO has performed well than market in that period.
Annexure 3 represents the cumulative monthly returns. Monthly
cumulative abnormal returns in Table No. 4 show that out of 36 months
only for 2-10, 13-17th month IPO perform better. T-stat shows that all
results are insignificant.
Figure No. 4
Cumulative Fortnightly Abnormal Returns

Comparison of Results with Prior Research
Our results are consistent with prior research. Our study found initial
trading day abnormal return of 53.82%. Following table No. 4 show a
comparison of our study with prior studies. As shown our results for
Table No. 4
Initial Day Abnormal Return
Author/Year Country First Day Abn ormal Return
Our Study Pakistan 0.5382
Sohail And Raheman (2010) Pakistan 0.4217
Sohail And Nasar (2007) Pakistan 0.3566
Rizwan And Khan (2007) Pakistan 0.36476
India 0.071
Procianoy And Cigerza (20 07)
Brazil 0.3068
Alvarez And Gonzalez (2001) Spain 0.1177
Rydqvist (1997) Sweden 0.39
Khurshed, Mudambi, And Gergen
U.K 0.0974
(1999)
Michael Firth (1997) Newzealand 0.2587
Long Run IPO performance
Long Run
Author/Year Country Performance Duration
12
-0.84%
Months
24
Our Study Pakistan -6.07%
Months
36
-18.62%
Months
Sohail And Nasar (2007) Pakistan -19.67% 12
Months
-11.26% 12 Moths
Rizwan And Khan (2007) Pakistan 24
-23.68%
Months
China 1.06% 45
Months
44
Procianoy And Cigerza (20 07) India -0.66%
Months
29
Brazil 3.65%
Months
36
Alvarez And Gonzalez (2001) Spain -27.80%
Months
Khurshed, Mudambi, And Gergen 36
U.K -17.81%
(1999) Months
12
-7.72% Months
24
-10.12%
Months
36
Michael Firth (1997) Newzealand 14%
Months
48
16.83%
Months
60
-17.91%
Months

initial trading day and for long run are aligned with researches done
in different countries of the world.
Conclusion
We have analyzed the IPO performance on first trading day and long
run IPO performance for a period of three years on weekly, fortnightly,
and monthly basis. Using market adjusted abnormal return (MAAR)
model study reveals that on first trading day investors are rewarded
with abnormal returns with a mean of 53.82%. Sector-wise analysis
reveals that in some sectors performance of IPOs on first trading day
was better than other. Year wise analysis reveals that some year
performance of IPOs on first trading day was better than other. Year
2008 performance of IPOs on first trading day was at its peak. For
long run weekly, fortnightly and monthly cumulative abnormal returns
(CAR) model show that in long run IPO remain underperformed. For
one year our research shows that stock market rewards its investors
with positive abnormal returns. If investors can get access to primary
market they must invest in IPOs and sell them at the end of the first
trading day. Investors should not keep stock for long time. Before
investing in stock market investor must analyze the history of the
sector as some sectors outperform than others.
The research is helpful for managers, fun mangers, academia and

specially investors. If investors can get access to primary market
they must invest in IPOs and sell them at the end of the first trading
day. Investors should not keep stock for long time. Before investing
in stock market investor must analyze the history of the sector as
some sectors outperform than others.
We have used cumulative abnormal returns to gauge the long run

performance of initial public offerings. In future same research can be
done by adopting other models like CAPM BHARs model, Fama and
French measures which is an advanced form of capital asset pricing
model. Research can be conducted to check the performance of initial
public offerings before and after 2005 and 2008 period under Stock
market crises.
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Annexure
Table 1
NAME MAAR
WorldCall PayPhone Ltd. 37.46%
Dewan Farooque Motors Ltd. -9.3 1%
Al-Meezan Investment Bank Ltd. -3.3 3%
Bestway Cement 10.25%
Arif Habib Securities Ltd. 3.95%
WorldCall Multimedia -6.3 9%
National Bank Of Pakistan Limited 45.20%
Attock Cement Pakistan Limited 14.65%
Bosicor Pakistan Limited -12.00%
Ittehad Chemicals Limited 60.42%
TRG Pakistan Limited A-class 58.61%
Pakistan International Container Terminal Ltd. 86.40%
Oil & Gas Development Company Limited 40.97%
WorldCall Broadband Limited -4.2 2%
MACPAC Films Limited 107.68%
Callmate Telips Telecom Limited -1.3 1%
Southern Networks Limited 5.15%
Bank Alfalah Limited 75.79%
Pakistan Petroleum Limited 106.75%
Chenab Limited -3.2 7%
First National Equities Limited 14.03%
AMZ Ventures Limited A-class -10.10%
Network Microfinance Bank Limited -14.90%
International Housing Finance Limited -11.00%
Jahangir Siddiqui Capital Markets Limited 32.63%
Attock Petroleum Limited 240.35%
Kot Addu Power Compan y Limited 80.68%
Dewan Farooque Spinning Mills Limited 5.06%
United Bank Limited 36.83%
Eye Television Network Limited 11.57%
Zephyr Textiles Limited 1.81%
Chenab Limited -43.25%
NetSol Technologies Limited 32.57%
WorldCall Telecom Limited -9.1 0%
D. S. Industries Limited 0.10%
Siddiqsons Tin Plate Limited 61.69%
The Bank of Khyber 134.39%

BankIslami Pakistan Limited 82.64%

Arif Habib Limited 8.47%
Hira Textile Mills Limited -32.90%
PACE (Pakistan) Limited 99.35%
JS ABAMCO Limited -6.20%
Flying Cement Company Limited 24.53%
Pervez Ahmed Securities Limited 56.97%
Sitara Peroxide Limited 320.53%
Habib Bank Limited 27.07%
Dost Steels Limited 143.67%
Arif Habib Bank Limited 1353.74%
Invest and Finan ce Securities Limited 221.64%
Thatta Cement Company Limited 25.67%
Dawood Equities Limited 122.41%
Engro Polymer & Chemicals Limited 49.80%
KASB Securities Limited 6.24%
First Credit and Investment Bank Limited 2.85%
Arif Habib In vestment Management Limited -21.10%
Descon Oxychem Limited 2.28%
Media Times Limited 32.77%
Nishat Power Limited 14.22%
Nishat Chunian Power Limited 1.13%
Ghan i Gases Limited 50.26%
Fatima Fertilizer Compan y Limited -2.50%
Safe Mix Concrete Products Limited -4.94%
Agritech Limited -19.80%
Amtex Limited -9.05%
Wateen Telecom Limited -20.44%
International Steels Limited 0.48%
Pakgen Power Limited -1.81%
Engro Foods Limited 7.92%
TPL Direct Insurance Limited 0.92%
Average 53.82%

Annexure 1 Weekly Cumulative Abnormal Returns

Week N Mean Std. Deviation T Sig. (2-Tailed)
Week 1 57 -0.03165 0.103919207 -2.29957 0.025224
Week 2 57 -0.04399 0.151184761 -2.19671 0.032197
Week 3 57 -0.05731 0.161399152 -2.68061 0.009635
Week 4 57 -0.07713 0.163854237 -3.55383 0.00078
Week 5 57 -0.10028 0.190990524 -3.96392 0.000211
Week 6 57 -0.1006 0.216764134 -3.50376 0.00091
Week 7 57 -0.11057 0.260215685 -3.20794 0.002212
Week 8 57 -0.12018 0.296751614 -3.05749 0.003419
Week 9 57 -0.11567 0.309079104 -2.82542 0.006532
Week 10 57 -0.11152 0.341716761 -2.46386 0.016842
Week 11 57 -0.07672 0.358356846 -1.61629 0.111652
Week 12 57 -0.07671 0.371424589 -1.55916 0.124592
Week 13 57 -0.05275 0.3845579 -1.03564 0.304821
Week 14 57 -0.05941 0.39072889 -1.14793 0.255879
Week 15 57 -0.06014 0.391809149 -1.15888 0.251423
Week 16 57 -0.04583 0.38573387 -0.89708 0.373516
Week 17 57 -0.03834 0.392351514 -0.73783 0.463696
Week 18 57 -0.03576 0.380056266 -0.71031 0.480458
Week 19 57 -0.02617 0.375051616 -0.52672 0.600468
Week 20 57 -0.00885 0.374496386 -0.17837 0.85908
Week 21 57 0.003984 0.386563239 0.077804 0.938261
Week 22 57 -0.00249 0.390722688 -0.04812 0.961791
Week 23 57 -0.01128 0.405107469 -0.21017 0.8343
Week 24 57 -0.00914 0.406031083 -0.16991 0.865692
Week 25 57 -0.02913 0.416705918 -0.52783 0.599703
Week 26 57 -0.03913 0.428418182 -0.68952 0.493345
Week 27 57 -0.03758 0.415819319 -0.68237 0.497821
Week 28 57 -0.04638 0.427927177 -0.81825 0.416682
Week 29 57 -0.06356 0.436027571 -1.10048 0.275833
Week 30 57 -0.07461 0.42922767 -1.3124 0.194738
Week 31 57 -0.06957 0.451752138 -1.16261 0.24992
Week 32 57 -0.0879 0.463542417 -1.43172 0.157783
Week 33 57 -0.08855 0.488505998 -1.36851 0.176619
Week 34 57 -0.08725 0.485723259 -1.35615 0.180496
Week 35 57 -0.06257 0.494022922 -0.95618 0.343091
Week 36 57 -0.04257 0.519543226 -0.61864 0.538664
Week 37 57 -0.01763 0.534468903 -0.24899 0.804279
Week 38 57 -0.00793 0.539968528 -0.1109 0.912096
Week 39 57 0.011154 0.560695037 0.150184 0.881159
Week 40 57 0.004762 0.56994437 0.063077 0.94993

Week 41 57 0.00078 0.58692218 0.010038 0.992026

Week 42 57 -0.01002 0.583099084 -0.12974 0.897237
Week 43 57 -0.01204 0.607681492 -0.14955 0.881654
Week 44 57 -0.02168 0.616888108 -0.26535 0.791714
Week 45 57 -0.00766 0.608059477 -0.0951 0.924576
Week 46 57 -0.00907 0.616250995 -0.11116 0.911885
Week 47 57 0.008576 0.632138833 0.102426 0.918785
Week 48 57 -0.00882 0.617990755 -0.1077 0.914615
Week 49 57 -0.00192 0.618237482 -0.0235 0.981334
Week 50 57 -0.00028 0.63487704 -0.00335 0.99734
Week 51 57 -0.01011 0.642674841 -0.11875 0.905897
Week 52 57 -0.00744 0.642884519 -0.08738 0.930683
Week 53 57 -0.02783 0.652309845 -0.32212 0.748558
Week 54 57 -0.03927 0.645506628 -0.45933 0.647778
Week 55 57 -0.06027 0.647685725 -0.70252 0.485263
Week 56 57 -0.05042 0.652406005 -0.58351 0.561892
Week 57 57 -0.05936 0.660010262 -0.679 0.499936
Week 58 57 -0.04962 0.651292987 -0.57524 0.567432
Week 59 57 -0.07412 0.65728158 -0.85138 0.398182
Week 60 57 -0.08639 0.652575112 -0.99953 0.32184
Week 61 57 -0.08907 0.680599451 -0.98801 0.327396
Week 62 57 -0.08517 0.689495185 -0.93263 0.355016
Week 63 57 -0.09575 0.689810231 -1.048 0.299141
Week 64 57 -0.11544 0.685088124 -1.27221 0.208557
Week 65 57 -0.11046 0.69980756 -1.19174 0.238388
Week 66 57 -0.11726 0.666471238 -1.32828 0.189475
Week 67 57 -0.11324 0.709767928 -1.20459 0.233429
Week 68 57 -0.09537 0.721158322 -0.99845 0.322354
Week 69 57 -0.11384 0.725852503 -1.1841 0.241377
Week 70 57 -0.1302 0.726219616 -1.35358 0.18131
Week 71 57 -0.13655 0.713390146 -1.44509 0.154004
Week 72 57 -0.11839 0.713256611 -1.25314 0.215363
Week 73 57 -0.11844 0.719625225 -1.24263 0.219182
Week 74 57 -0.11032 0.744817359 -1.11823 0.268243
Week 75 57 -0.10538 0.746228882 -1.0662 0.290907
Week 76 57 -0.11823 0.761903658 -1.17153 0.246345
Week 77 57 -0.1188 0.770680209 -1.16379 0.249443
Week 78 57 -0.12167 0.782072612 -1.1746 0.245127
Week 79 57 -0.12691 0.779984577 -1.22838 0.224444
Week 80 57 -0.12847 0.783928169 -1.23722 0.221167
Week 81 57 -0.11407 0.752273258 -1.14477 0.257174
Week 82 57 -0.10756 0.791457782 -1.026 0.309303
Week 83 57 -0.11315 0.801498994 -1.06588 0.291053

Week 84 57 -0.11272 0.797870419 -1.06659 0.29 0735

Week 85 57 -0.11156 0.790836678 -1.06502 0.29 1439
Week 86 57 -0.10913 0.798898793 -1.03133 0.30 6818
Week 87 57 -0.11262 0.773561863 -1.09914 0.27 6408
Week 88 57 -0.10136 0.797446891 -0.95966 0.34 1353
Week 89 57 -0.10737 0.808480943 -1.00269 0.32 0324
Week 90 57 -0.0773 0.793799044 -0.73519 0.46 5295
Week 91 57 -0.05756 0.799268321 -0.54375 0.58 877
Week 92 57 -0.07013 0.799491506 -0.66224 0.51 0535
Week 93 57 -0.08336 0.803833069 -0.78294 0.43 6961
Week 94 57 -0.08815 0.788567883 -0.84395 0.40 229
Week 95 57 -0.09375 0.791695145 -0.89405 0.37 512
Week 96 57 -0.10452 0.774815763 -1.01844 0.31 2849
Week 97 57 -0.10966 0.807144381 -1.02577 0.30 941
Week 98 57 -0.08839 0.796152467 -0.83822 0.40 5473
Week 99 57 -0.08006 0.802538746 -0.75313 0.45 4526
Week 100 57 -0.10222 0.800440171 -0.96416 0.33 9109
Week 101 57 -0.12116 0.799040026 -1.14476 0.25 7178
Week 102 57 -0.1306 0.804862528 -1.22506 0.22 568
Week 103 57 -0.12127 0.800361181 -1.1439 0.25 7532
Week 104 57 -0.11046 0.826185603 -1.00941 0.31 7121
Week 105 57 -0.09272 0.798026394 -0.87714 0.38 4156
Week 106 57 -0.09237 0.80503728 -0.86625 0.39 0049
Week 107 57 -0.09276 0.811093377 -0.8634 0.39 1602
Week 108 57 -0.08819 0.827735021 -0.80435 0.42 4599
Week 109 57 -0.09006 0.839786868 -0.80965 0.42 1569
Week 110 57 -0.07268 0.857331802 -0.64004 0.52 4759
Week 111 57 -0.07702 0.857025627 -0.67851 0.50 0241
Week 112 57 -0.08748 0.859126679 -0.76878 0.44 5255
Week 113 57 -0.08903 0.882195188 -0.76194 0.44 9296
Week 114 57 -0.09057 0.909681529 -0.75165 0.45 5409
Week 115 57 -0.09379 0.918949144 -0.77053 0.44 4225
Week 116 57 -0.11768 0.892154986 -0.99585 0.32 3605
Week 117 57 -0.13456 0.887634305 -1.14451 0.25 7279
Week 118 57 -0.13825 0.905044269 -1.15324 0.25 3709
Week 119 57 -0.12796 0.918123043 -1.0522 0.29 7229
Week 120 57 -0.12162 0.917900035 -1.00037 0.32 1434
Week 121 57 -0.13366 0.943883025 -1.06911 0.28 9609
Week 122 57 -0.13844 0.946877481 -1.10387 0.27 4372
Week 123 57 -0.15208 0.937590748 -1.22464 0.22 5837
Week 124 57 -0.16723 0.938915769 -1.34472 0.18 4137
Week 125 57 -0.18052 0.95073785 -1.43348 0.15 7282
Week 126 57 -0.1757 0.947752095 -1.39966 0.16 7132

Week 127 57 -0.1869 5 0.9 39443541 -1.50245 0.138598

Week 128 57 -0.2091 4 0.9 47516068 -1.66641 0.101216
Week 129 57 -0.2042 5 0.9 64096283 -1.5995 0.115336
Week 130 57 -0.2083 1 0.9 58543945 -1.64074 0.106456
Week 131 57 -0.2114 6 0.9 7022018 -1.64552 0.105464
Week 132 57 -0.2214 8 0.9 70097957 -1.72367 0.090285
Week 133 57 -0.2122 3 1.0 11126283 -1.58469 0.118669
Week 134 57 -0.1996 6 1.0 1004387 -1.4924 0.141207
Week 135 57 -0.1687 7 1.0 0710324 -1.26522 0.211033
Week 136 57 -0.1780 5 1.0 13200897 -1.32676 0.189972
Week 137 57 -0.2023 9 1.0 27598397 -1.48697 0.142633
Week 138 57 -0.1987 2 1.0 34039657 -1.45095 0.152373
Week 139 57 -0.1972 3 1.0 34512909 -1.43939 0.155606
Week 140 57 -0.2241 1 1.0 3553227 -1.63395 0.107878
Week 141 57 -0.2106 9 1.0 4430619 -1.52322 0.133331
Week 142 57 -0.2222 3 1.0 58904828 -1.58444 0.118725
Week 143 57 -0.1858 1.0 68838917 -1.31245 0.194723
Week 144 57 -0.2074 6 1.0 77947871 -1.45305 0.15179
Week 145 57 -0.1988 1 1.0 81013086 -1.38847 0.170492
Week 146 57 -0.2002 2 1.0 97672188 -1.37713 0.173951
Week 147 57 -0.2099 8 1.1 06690305 -1.43247 0.157569
Week 148 57 -0.2325 1 1.1 32675545 -1.5498 0.126822
Week 149 57 -0.2242 6 1.1 19858744 -1.51188 0.136187
Week 150 57 -0.2733 5 1.1 38899516 -1.81205 0.075341
Week 151 57 -0.2599 5 1.1 38872633 -1.72328 0.090355
Week 152 57 -0.2731 3 1.1 3273522 -1.82043 0.074038
Week 153 57 -0.2871 7 1.1 38007168 -1.90516 0.061899
Week 154 57 -0.2827 8 1.1 52456739 -1.85252 0.069224
Week 155 57 -0.2809 1 1.1 66108566 -1.8187 0.074307
Week 156 57 -0.2728 1.1 66584765 -1.76548 0.082935

Annexure 2 Fortnightly Cumulative Abnormal Returns

Fortnight N Mean Std. Deviation T Sig. (2-Tailed)
Fortnight 1 57 -0.02473 0.131132859 -1.42402 0.159989
Fortnight 2 57 -0.06442 0.158263502 -3.07292 0.003271
Fortnight 3 57 -0.07441 0.227400752 -2.47042 0.016567
Fortnight 4 57 -0.07735 0.291990445 -2.00006 0.050353
Fortnight 5 57 -0.03871 0.366688074 -0.79702 0.428808
Fortnight 6 57 -0.01667 0.383437804 -0.32832 0.743895
Fortnight 7 57 -0.02312 0.39476854 -0.44222 0.660033
Fortnight 8 57 -0.00121 0.405437286 -0.02249 0.982139
Fortnight 9 57 0.007922 0.39067381 0.153095 0.878874
Fortnight 10 57 0.041364 0.402323518 0.776227 0.440881
Fortnight 11 57 0.028427 0.414039035 0.518358 0.606251
Fortnight 12 57 0.00889 0.416705035 0.161069 0.872619
Fortnight 13 57 0.006091 0.418321326 0.109921 0.912865
Fortnight 14 57 -0.02138 0.42761232 -0.37746 0.707258
Fortnight 15 57 -0.02908 0.448768822 -0.48926 0.626566
Fortnight 16 57 -0.04711 0.488956969 -0.72748 0.469963
Fortnight 17 57 -0.02348 0.502168013 -0.35305 0.725376
Fortnight 18 57 0.023852 0.541071643 0.332814 0.740517
Fortnight 19 57 0.050977 0.575289367 0.668998 0.506245
Fortnight 20 57 0.038801 0.603508095 0.485399 0.629287
Fortnight 21 57 0.025595 0.620255189 0.311546 0.756542
Fortnight 22 57 0.032074 0.628173848 0.385487 0.701337
Fortnight 23 57 0.052328 0.652009775 0.605919 0.547017
Fortnight 24 57 0.039992 0.641488061 0.470679 0.639698
Fortnight 25 57 0.032362 0.661451286 0.369387 0.713233
Fortnight 26 57 0.014489 0.674809981 0.162109 0.871803
Fortnight 27 57 -0.0208 0.668960233 -0.23469 0.815302
Fortnight 28 57 -0.02377 0.683691636 -0.26251 0.793889
Fortnight 29 57 -0.0348 0.681419093 -0.38559 0.701259
Fortnight 30 57 -0.0537 0.691565251 -0.58624 0.560071
Fortnight 31 57 -0.06167 0.70517568 -0.66021 0.511826
Fortnight 32 57 -0.08136 0.721556792 -0.85127 0.398247
Fortnight 33 57 -0.09143 0.707566212 -0.97552 0.333496
Fortnight 34 57 -0.0917 0.724382852 -0.9557 0.343333
Fortnight 35 57 -0.11423 0.713982471 -1.20795 0.232145
Fortnight 36 57 -0.0977 0.720009877 -1.02441 0.310046
Fortnight 37 57 -0.08475 0.738214397 -0.86676 0.389771
Fortnight 38 57 -0.10047 0.765585596 -0.9908 0.326044
Fortnight 39 57 -0.10982 0.770792451 -1.07568 0.286684
Fortnight 40 57 -0.10148 0.744485214 -1.02915 0.307835
Fortnight 41 57 -0.0974 0.786031109 -0.93553 0.353534

Fortnight 42 57 -0.09622 0.771053556 -0.94212 0.350179

Fortnight 43 57 -0.10027 0.757968928 -0.99876 0.322205
Fortnight 44 57 -0.0926 0.792737049 -0.88186 0.38162
Fortnight 45 57 -0.03348 0.771976278 -0.32747 0.744532
Fortnight 46 57 -0.05873 0.787590887 -0.56301 0.575677
Fortnight 47 57 -0.07253 0.77628426 -0.70542 0.483474
Fortnight 48 57 -0.09046 0.79412404 -0.86002 0.393446
Fortnight 49 57 -0.06399 0.781942728 -0.61787 0.539166
Fortnight 50 57 -0.10786 0.788257437 -1.03308 0.306009
Fortnight 51 57 -0.10482 0.783621435 -1.00993 0.316873
Fortnight 52 57 -0.0766 0.781632399 -0.73987 0.462468
Fortnight 53 57 -0.07459 0.80024639 -0.70367 0.484554
Fortnight 54 57 -0.06871 0.830950569 -0.6243 0.534964
Fortnight 55 57 -0.05612 0.85289439 -0.49676 0.621305
Fortnight 56 57 -0.06317 0.875048116 -0.54502 0.587902
Fortnight 57 57 -0.07026 0.913603586 -0.58057 0.563857
Fortnight 58 57 -0.10616 0.881292925 -0.90943 0.367021
Fortnight 59 57 -0.09513 0.912088117 -0.78746 0.434334
Fortnight 60 57 -0.09925 0.944106186 -0.79372 0.430709
Fortnight 61 57 -0.11596 0.938448693 -0.93286 0.354897
Fortnight 62 57 -0.14552 0.95316344 -1.15267 0.253944
Fortnight 63 57 -0.1509 0.947802844 -1.20203 0.234409
Fortnight 64 57 -0.16607 0.973927588 -1.28738 0.203259
Fortnight 65 57 -0.17057 0.986781141 -1.30504 0.197217
Fortnight 66 57 -0.17255 1.035895421 -1.2576 0.213755
Fortnight 67 57 -0.1294 1.035058144 -0.94383 0.349311
Fortnight 68 57 -0.16534 1.057153569 -1.18081 0.242668
Fortnight 69 57 -0.16335 1.063255047 -1.15989 0.251015
Fortnight 70 57 -0.17812 1.077690799 -1.24782 0.21729
Fortnight 71 57 -0.15894 1.108878133 -1.08212 0.283835
Fortnight 72 57 -0.17266 1.129146441 -1.15447 0.253211
Fortnight 73 57 -0.19219 1.158217865 -1.25282 0.215478
Fortnight 74 57 -0.21736 1.182428035 -1.38783 0.170688
Fortnight 75 57 -0.26087 1.214921931 -1.6211 0.110614
Fortnight 76 57 -0.29612 1.224683213 -1.82553 0.073256
Fortnight 77 57 -0.29773 1.267542264 -1.77338 0.081604
Fortnight 78 57 -0.30119 1.299296316 -1.7501 0.085578

Annexure 3 Month ly Cu mulative Abnormal Returns

Month N Mean Std. Deviation t Sig. (2-tailed)
Month 1 57 -0.0442 0.21271 -1.5672 0.12269
Month 2 57 0.01387 0.40019 0.26165 0.79455
Month 3 57 0.0607 0.44699 1.02526 0.30965
Month 4 57 0.11437 0.46198 1.86909 0.06684
Month 5 57 0.0713 0.4619 1.16539 0.2488
Month 6 57 0.02607 0.45469 0.43288 0.66677
Month 7 57 0.03017 0.52758 0.43179 0.66756
Month 8 57 0.09863 0.61639 1.20807 0.2321
Month 9 57 0.07584 0.64936 0.88172 0.3817
Month 10 57 0.03277 0.70388 0.35144 0.72658
Month 11 57 -0.0125 0.74016 -0.1271 0.89929
Month 12 57 -0.0084 0.83586 -0.0755 0.94007
Month 13 57 0.0601 0.97393 0.46586 0.64312
Month 14 57 0.0373 1.02094 0.27585 0.78368
Month 15 57 0.06071 1.00623 0.45551 0.65051
Month 16 57 0.04772 1.04192 0.34579 0.7308
Month 17 57 0.01415 1.04502 0.1022 0.91896
Month 18 57 -0.0184 1.05775 -0.1314 0.89595
Month 19 57 -0.0377 1.08823 -0.2615 0.79464
Month 20 57 -0.0695 1.09203 -0.4803 0.63286
Month 21 57 -0.0531 1.13074 -0.3543 0.72447
Month 22 57 -0.0636 1.16526 -0.4119 0.68198
Month 23 57 -0.0476 1.14366 -0.3141 0.75462
Month 24 57 -0.0607 1.13585 -0.4034 0.68818
Month 25 57 -0.0251 1.1736 -0.1615 0.87231
Month 26 57 -0.0467 1.13709 -0.3099 0.7578
Month 27 57 -0.0757 1.15984 -0.4927 0.62414
Month 28 57 -0.0778 1.18826 -0.4945 0.62291
Month 29 57 -0.06 1.25992 -0.3598 0.72038
Month 30 57 -0.0636 1.31423 -0.3654 0.7162
Month 31 57 -0.1109 1.30592 -0.641 0.52416
Month 32 57 -0.1084 1.34364 -0.6093 0.54482
Month 33 57 -0.1425 1.33371 -0.8068 0.42319
Month 34 57 -0.1722 1.35066 -0.9623 0.34002
Month 35 57 -0.1415 1.40283 -0.7616 0.44948
Month 36 57 -0.1862 1.43368 -0.9804 0.33112

Research
Research Academic Motivation and Performance .. .
ACADEMIC MOTIVATION
AND PERFORMANCE OF FEMALE
STUDENTS IN CO-EDUCATION
Urfi Khalid Husain1
Abstract
As graduates of today will hold important positions in all

aspects of life, it becomes imperative to understand their academic
motivation. This paper tries to examine under graduate female
students’ level and type of motivation while they are studying in a
co-education institution. This study worked on a two tail hypotheses.
1) There would be gender difference on academic performance in
co- education undergraduate Business and Social Science
Programmes in Private Universities in Pakistan. 2) Female academic
motivation is performance oriented and is better than males in co-
education undergraduate Business and Social Science
Programmes in Private Universities in Pakistan. Research data
was collected through a survey of 135 students. Findings of the
study correspond to hypothesis (1). But for hypothesis (2) no
difference was found in the performance orientation of both genders.
The study would provide useful information to undergraduate
school educators, allowing them to understand the type and level
of motivation of their female students, describe factors that can
influence their motivation, and highlight policy guidelines for
undergraduate teaching in co-education environment. The study
concludes that although females score better GPA than males, there
is no difference in male and female introjected performance oriented
motivation.
Keywords: Academic performance, female motivation,
undergraduates, co-education
JEL Classification: I 290
1 - Center for Area and Policy Studies. Institute of BusinessManagement,

(IoBM), Karachi, Pakistan

Academic Motivation and Performance .. . Research
Introduction
Education is the systematic training given specially to the

young in preparation of life (Cllins, 1993 cited by Jabbar). A number of
studies highlight benefits of higher degree in personal and public life
as it ensures higher earnings, increased productivity, awareness of
making appropriate choices in one’s life and reduced criminal activities,
“Attending college influences not only occupation and earnings but
also cognitive, moral and psychosocial characteristics as well as values
and attitudes and various indices of the quality of life. Evidence also
suggests that postsecondary education’s influences extend beyond
the individuals who attend college to the nature of their children’s
lives” (Pascarella and Terenzini, 2005).Co-education in educational
institutions is a modern concept. It was first introduced in Switzerland,
and is now adopted everywhere. Coeducation institutes are
economically viable institutions suitable for the developing countries
because they make maximum use of their resources. Here boys and
girls study side by side in one class room. The concept presents
distinct advantages which outweigh their disadvantages. Various
studies have been done in recent times to compare gender
performances, in mixed and single gender classes at all educational
levels. One view is that an environment where both genders are
present definitely provides a healthy social environment enriching
student’s abilities to cope with real life situations over a wide spectrum
of their professional as well as family life(Vexter, 2011). The coeducation
environment also provides healthy moral and intellectual stimulation
without undue excitement which results due to the present system of
isolation. To take into account the disadvantage, environment in these
institutions is known to cause distractions in classroom and creation
of stereotypes.This is confirmed by A Department of Education study
(2008) findings where “both principals and teachers believed that the
main benefits of single-sex schooling are decreasing distractions to
learning and improving student achievement”. Stereotyping generally
displays a strong influence on choices made towards their profession
and choices made in their everyday life (Hutchison & Mikulski, 2012).
Therefore in the US and Europe there is a debate going on regarding
the benefits of single sex education, “ negative gender roles are often
sharpened in coeducational environments. Boys are more likely, for
instance, to buy into the notion that reading isn’t masculine when
they’re surrounded by (and showing off for) girls”. Girls shy away

from queries in coeducation class rooms. It has been demonstrated

time and again that young girls are more willing to ask and answer
questions in classrooms without boys (Hutchison & Mikulski 2012).
In a 3 year longitudinal study done at Florida’s Stetson University
(2000), even at the elementary school both boys and girls showed
higher proficiency in single sex schools.
The Hutchison &Mikulski (2012 ) study continues to argue

that girls are such high achievers that they are out numbering boys in
post graduate programs. A study published in (2004) in the Pendulum,
Elon University’s Student Newspaper by Christine Pennigton (2004),
outlined the national trend. “Female college graduates – fewer than
half of all graduates a decade ago – now outnumber their male
counterparts in most industrialized countries,” the article stated. She
continues that there exists a positive relationship between co-
education and female performance. She quoted from the research and
interviews conducted by USA Today (Runge, 2003) that “even the
most academically talented boys never catch up to girls in high school
grade. This study also cited Karen Cottrell, associate provost for
enrollment at the College of William & Mary, pointing out that “Girls
typically have better high school transcripts,” she said. Regarding
three phenomena—numbers, achievement and behavior, “The data
might seem to suggest that there are fewer and fewer boys, getting
poorer grades, with increasing numbers of behavioral problems”(
Kimmel, 2000). Sociologist Andrew Hacker (2003) in his book
“Mismatch: The Growing Gulf between Women and Men,” argues
that girls spend more time doing their homework and boys spend that
time on watching TV and video games. Hacker continues, “It’s almost
as if being a man and being masculine, macho and powerful is not
conducive to being a good student.” Further boys get mixed
messages like it is not “cool” to be a good student but it is more
masculine to be a good athlete (Michael Thompson 2000). A study
conducted in July 2009, on graduates from Boston Public Schools of
2007, by the Center for Labor Market Studies at Northeastern
University States that for every 167 women in four-year colleges
there were only 100 men (Whitmire & Bailey, 2013).The bottom line
according to studies reviewed and mentioned above is that males are
becoming a minority group on most of university campuses across
united states because of their lower performance. This is the situation
in United States and Europe.

To get a glimpse of this issue in Pakistan cultural scene

presents a somewhat different picture. Pakistan being a muslim country
there are reservations about the concept of co-education. In 1947
only one university of the Panjab existed which was coeducational
Out of 40 colleges across the four provinces very few colleges but
none of the schools were into coeducation. Females were 5% (UNESCO,
2009) of the then student body. After 1980 Islamisation programme
single sex women universities were established. The following
statistics have been taken from UNESCO’s 2009 Global Education
Digest. UNESCO definition for a literate adopted since 2004-2012, is
one who can read a newspaper and write a simple letter, in any
language. Accordingly in Pakistan literacy rates are amongst the lowest
in South Asia ( lower than India, BanglaDesh, Nepal and Bhutan). For
higher education in Pakistan 6.3% of Pakistanis (8.9% of males and
3.5% of females) were university graduates as of 2OO7. Pakistan plans
to increase this figure to 10% by 2015 and subsequently to 15% by
2020. Youth literacy rate for males is 79% and for female is 61% (2012).
These statistics relate differently to the situation in the literature review
where the female enrolement was overtaking the male enrolment in
undergraduate programs.
Demographic Factors like family size, socio economic status,

and gender are issues which play an important role in academic
performance (Jabbar, 2011) in the Pakistan context.
Literature review
To assess academic motivation and performance , the

literature reviewed pointed that by late 1980’s a specific theoretical
base was established as Self Determination Theory (Deci & Ryan,
1985). This theory tries to find out the causes of human behavior. The
theory constructs its argument that to fulfill a wide spectrum of desires
human beings act according to their internal and external environment
and attributes success in performance as not solely dependent on
inherent qualities but to a set of psychological and social forces that
drive an individual to achieve success. Motivation is understood as
to be energized and activated towards doing something. It is imperative

to understand this Motivation Orientation of today’s graduate which

will determine the future direction that society will take (Ryan and
Deci, 2000 ). Researchers argue and experimental evidence
demonstrates that Motivation has a strong relationship with school
performance (Deci, Vallerand, Pelletier, & Ryan, 1991; Fortier et al.,
1995; Komarraju, Karau, & Schmeck, 2009) Self-determination theory
explains three categories of motivation, Intrinsic, Extrinsic and
Amotivation. Intrinsic Motivation can be defined as a force to
participate for the sake of satisfaction and pleasure experienced due
to that participation (Deci & Ryan, 1985; ) Intrinsic motivation is
defined by the theory as ― “an approach to human motivation that
highlights people’s inner motivational resources in explaining healthy
personality development and autonomous self-regulation” (Reeve,
Deci, & Ryan, 2004, p.33). Intrinsic motivation is further divided into
three types, intrinsic motivation to know, to accomplish and for the
stimulation experienced while participating. Because intrinsic
motivation results in high-quality learning and creativity, it is
especially important to detail the factors and forces, which can be
enlisted as competence, autonomy, goal orientation and physical
appearance that engender or undermine it (Ryan &Stiller, 1991, cited
in 2000 by Deci and Ryan). Intrinsic motivation is a very important
factor in academic achievements; Scholars’ specific concern was to
identify factors undermining it. Since it was noticed that intelligent
students( who displayed most of the above factors) were seen to
have not achieved attainable levels of performance. This shortcoming
is illustrated by researchers both in the classroom and laboratories
(Ames, 1978 cited by Hegarty 2012 ), who show that, although children
may have the same intellectual capabilities, they then choose either
adaptive or maladaptive patterns which then have deep effects on
cognitive performance.
The theory also links motivation with extrinsic motivation

as the environmental factors within a specific socio cultural context.
Every school has its own set of values, beliefs and traditions. These
are made by school administration, the teachers, students and social

systems. School is a sum of the values, cultures, safety practices, and

organizational structures (Renchler, 1992 cited by Bang and
Baker,2013). This category of motivation plays a very important role
in educational setting (Reeve et al., 2004). The factors of extrinsic
motivation can be identified as urge to prove one’s competency to
parents, teachers and peers (Shia, R. 1998) and can be promoted by
school culture. This is the introjected regulation, because a task is
performed to attain a feeling of self enhancement and pride “
introjection represents regulation by contingent self-esteem”
(Nicholls, 1984; Ryan, 1982). Extrinsic motivational factors prove
competency while intrinsic motivational factors improve competency.
Amotivational construct is lack of intent to participate in the activity
(Vallerand & Bissonnette, 1992.)
Academic motivation has positive relationship with college

GPA (Fortier et al., 1995). Motivation which gets expressed as
conscientious behavior, a willingness to work hard to learn material
even if it does not lead to a higher grade, the importance of getting
good grades, reading more for a class than required because the
material was interesting, enjoyment of academic challenge, and the
importance of academic experiences in college is termed as “Mastery
Goals” (intrinsic motivation), Where as motivation to prove one’s
competency by outperforming others is termed as “ Performance
Goals” (Dweck, 1986). Performance Goals are extrinsically motivated.
On the basis of above literature review following hypotheses

were formulated:
1. There will be gender difference on academic performance in

co-education undergraduate Business and Social Science
Programmes in Private Universities.
2. Female academic motivation is performance oriented and is

better than males in co-education undergraduate Business
and Social Science Programmes in Private Universities.

Methodology
To find out gender differences in academic performance and

female performance orientation, a Survey was conducted to collect
data on variables of academic performance and performance orientation
of males and females. The population for this research was
undergraduates both genders from private universities in Karachi.
Survey was conducted in the class room with the teacher’s permission
and students consent. The students belonged to families from
educated Middle and Upper middle class and ranged between the
age group of 18-25 years. The survey administered random sampling
of 135 participants (83 male; 52 female). Demographic Information
Form included: age, gender, socio-economic status, parent’s education,
current and last year GPA was asked. To assess the academic
performance the questionnaire developed by Vallerand’s (1989)
Achievement Motivational Scale (AMS) was used. The Scale assesses
7 types of constructs: Intrinsic motivation towards knowledge,
accomplishments, and stimulation. It also assesses external,
introjected and identified regulations and finally Amotivation. There
are 28 questions, 4 questions per subscale, assessed on a 7 point
scale, which has been tested and generally accepted as a valid
instrument that accurately examines motivation. The instrument is
the result of extensive research done in the realm of self determination
theory which is based on three subscales i.e. intrinsic, extrinsic and
amotivation.
The collected data from the questionnaires was scored

according to the scoring criteria of Academic Motivation Scale
(Vallerand, 1992) as described in the manual. To analyze the data
mean and standard deviation were calculated. To find gender difference
in academic performance and performance orientation, T-test was
applied through Statistical Package for Social Sciences, 17 version.
Table 2 result showed significant difference in academic performance
of males and females, where girls were achieving higher performance.

Table 3 showed significance of difference as .154 and therefore there

was no gender difference in performance orientation.
Results
Table 1
Demographic Information
Demographic Variables Frequency Percentag es%
Age
18-20 years 26 19.5
21-23 years 97 71.6
24 – 26 years 12 8.9
Gender
Male 83 61.5
Female 52 38.5
Semester
Freshman 23 17.0
Sophomore 57 42.2
Junior 36 26.7
Senior 19 14.1
Family Income
20,000 -30,000 Rupees 5 3.7
31,000 -40,000 Rupees 3 2.3
41,000 -50,000 Rupees 27 20.0
51, 000- 60,000 Rupees 18 13.3
61,000 or abov e 82 60.7
Parents Education
Father’s Educati on 2 1.5
Intermediate 21 15.5
Bach elors 58 43.5
Masters 54 39.5
Professional Degree
Mother’s Education
Matric 26 19.3
Intermediate 21 15.6
Bach elors 55 41.0
Masters 23 17.0
Professional Degree 10 7.1
GPA (Current)
0-2.5 17 12.6
2.6-3.67 113 83.7
3.78-4 5 3.7
GPA (Last Semester)
0-2.5 28 20.7
2.6-3.67 100 74.2
3.78-4 7 5.1

Table 2
The Mean Difference between Male and Female on the Variable of

Academic Performance
Gender N Mean Std. t df Sig
Academic Performance Male 83 2.71 .479 -2.757 133 .007

(GPA Current) Female 52 2.92 .330
Table 2 shows the gender difference of Academic Performance

(GPA). It verifies significant difference found between male and female
on the variable of academic motivation and academic performance.
Table 3
The Mean Difference between Male and Female on the Variable of
Performance Orientation
Gender N Mean Std. T Df Sig
Performance Orientation Male 83 13.43 3.101 -1.435 133 .154

(Introjected) Female 52 14.19 2.801
Table 2 shows the gender difference of Performance

orientation. It verifies that no significant difference found between
male and female on the variable of Performance Orientation
Discussion
The study aimed to find out gender difference in academic

performance in co-education. It also intended to investigate whether
female academic motivation is performance oriented, and is therefore
better than males.
The result of the first hypothesis which targets gender

difference in academic performance is significant, which means that
female performance is better than males and confirms the hypothesis.
These findings are consistent with previous findings i.e. Female
students are more regular and precise in doing assignments and
attending classes (Dayioglu & Turut-Asik, 2007), Whereas males

follow “non-traditional attendance patterns (Ewert, 2012, p.22). In

patriarchal societies the parental authority and guidance is strong
and autonomy is less for girls which results in female students securing
better GPA (Brandt 1999 cited by Filip 2013). The study by Filip (2013)
concludes that female students at University of New York in Tirana
outperform male students and are engaged in conscientious academic
behavior. In Patriarchal and traditional structures of society like in
Pakistan, female participation in outdoor activities is strongly
discouraged. It leaves them with fewer distractions and with more
time and energies spent on studies. Girls in Pakistan in higher education
are completely focused on academic activities
The second hypothesis suggests that female academic

motivation is performance oriented, and is therefore better than males.
Performance orientation is introjected extrinsic motivation and proves
to be an important factor for academic achievements. The result of the
study showed no significant difference in gender performance
orientation. Literature suggests that females have lower controlled or
extrinsic motivation and higher autonomous or intrinsic motivation
than males (Kusurkar, Croiset, & Cate, 2012; Buddeberg-Fischer et al.
2003). Women consider examination performance as by product of
learning and personal development, where as men treat examination
as the target of learning (Christine Mann, 2001). According to Bardar
(1996) males definitely have the tendency towards performance
orientation. Results of a study in Pakistan showed that both male and
female are equal in their performance orientation (Tariq, S. 2011).
Psychologist’s researches confirm that it is important to internalize
rationality of the goal (Ryan, 1995). In Patriarchal society’s girls suffer
from low esteem, while men feel more confident. Therefore they cannot
internalise the goal of outperforming males. Performance orientation
as introjected regulation according to psychologists causes anxiety
and poorer coping with failure (Ryan and Connell, 1989). Girls develop
a fear of failure and suffer from a lot of stress and put in a lot of hard
work (Mann, 2003). In traditional cultures like Pakistan their success
can be attributed to this hard work which is caused by stress rather
than to outperform boys.
There are some limitations of the study. This survey was

conducted during summer session when the student enrollment is
much less than the Fall and Spring semesters. Therefore a small sample
could be selected. The study also covers only institutes from Karachi.
Karachi is a metropolitan city, however the study can be extended to
include private business schools in two or three more provincial cities
for future researches. The survey can be conducted during Fall or
Spring semesters to widen the base of population and sample. To
make this study more comprehensive it can also take into account
teacher ’s inputs towards student motivation for academic
performance and performance orientation.
The implications of this study are that the academic

performance of girls is better than males in coeducation institutions
given the same environment yet no difference was found in both
gender’s performance orientation. Implication of this study is for
university teachers to promote motivation factors for both genders.
The findings of this study are also a resource material for,
higher education policy makers, for teachers in the class rooms, for
parents at home base and counselors, who are concerned with
academic progress of both genders. Since students of today are
going to be pace setters for the future direction of society, it is
imperative for both genders to exert equal motivation towards their
performance.
Conclusion
To conclude, the findings of the study illustrate that in

coeducation environment girls perform better than boys at the
undergraduate level. However the study rejected the second
hypothesis, that girl’s academic performance is to outperform boys
and is therefore better than boys.

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Research
Research Quality of Life, Spiritual Wellness and Delinquent . . .
QUALITY OF LIFE, SPIRITUAL

WELLNESS AND DELINQUENT
TENDENCIES AMONG
ADOLESCENTS
Naila Batooll, Sohema Tahir2 & Muhammad Naveed Riaz3
Abstract
The present study aimed at examining the role of quality of

life and spiritual wellness in the prediction of delinquent tendencies
among adolescents. WHO-Quality of Life Questionnaire, Spiritual
Wellness Inventory, and Self-Reported Delinquency Scale were used
to collect the information from participants. Purposive convenient
sampling technique was applied for data collection. Sample of the
present study comprised of 313 adolescents. Multiple Regression
analysis was applied to test the hypotheses. The findings indicated
that quality of life and spiritual wellness has negatively predicted
delinquent tendencies among adolescents. Finally, limitations,
suggestions, and implications were discussed.
Keywords: Quality of life, spiritual wellness, delinquent tendencies

1- Department of Psychology, University of Haripur, Haripur, Pakistan

2-National Institute of Psychology, Quaid-i-Azam University Islamabad,
Pa kistan
3- Department of Psychology, University of Haripur, Haripur, Pakistan

Quality of Life, Spiritual Wellness and Delinquent . . . Research
Introduction
Quality of life is studied as a wide ranging construct making

survival possible. It encompasses numerous dimensions including
physical, psychological, social, disease symptomatology and treatment
related aspects (Coons & Kaplan, 1992; Taylor, 2003). Human physical
and psychological states and its ties with the environment are the
features covered under the umbrella of quality of life (WHOQoL Group,
1995). Quality of life ensures superior psychological, social, and
occupational functioning and facilitates in the recovery from diseases
(Taylor, 2003). Beyond the physical aspects like food and shelter, it is
related to the feelings of self-completion and happiness (Hornquist,
1982). This indicates that quality of life operates less at physical level
and more at perceptual level. The feelings of quality of life are adjacent
to spirituality and culture (Collinge, Rudell, & Bhui, 2002; Marshall,
1990). Quality of life is influential in determining spiritual well-being
(Efficace & Marrone, 2002; Ferrell, Grant, Funk, Otis-Green, & Garcia,
1998; Horton, 2002). Ferrans and Powers (1992) found that quality of
life is correlated with healthy psychological and spiritual functioning.
Efficace and Morrone (2002) illustrate that mind, body and spirit are
three dimensions of human personality and these dimensions are
subjective aspects of the quality of life.
When appropriate level of quality of life is not perceived,

adolescents are more vulnerable for delinquency and related crimes.
Theories of early delinquencies during adolescence are attributed to
physiological and psychological factor not being fulfilled appropriately.
The proceeding perspectives on delinquency trace the causes of
developing delinquent tendencies and criminal behaviors in the social
and environmental factors (Gutierrez & Shoemaker, 2008). The physical,
social, psychological, and environmental factors combine to shape
quality of life (WHOQoL Group, 1995). This indicates that in the absence
of the quality of life and its various elements, adolescents are at a risk

of delinquency. Just like quality of life, the recent advancement of

spiritual wellness plays a vital role in connecting people with other
people, nature and sources that ensure healthy existence (Ingersoll,
2000).
Religion is a path to spiritual experience and spiritual wellness

is the unquestionable reality of human existence (O’Brien, 2001). This
is why more people preferred to be known as spiritual rather than
religious (Gallup, 1993). Spirituality has broad applications in every
aspect of human life and its outcomes are observed in real life scenarios
in the society (Ingersoll, 2000). Spiritual wellness creates purpose
and meaning in life and in the absence of these meaning, people are
vulnerable for unhealthy activities (Myers, 1999). Spiritually well
individuals have hopeful and optimistic spirit which prevents them
from deviances and delinquencies (Mapels, 2002). Wellness is the
road to optimal health with an integrated mind, body and spirit that
ensures a fully function life (Myres, Sweeney, & Witmer, 2000;
Sweeney & Witmer, 1999).Shoemaker (2000) discovered that Church
attendance was negatively linked with delinquency among the
adolescents and absenteeism was positively linked with delinquent
tendencies among adolescents. This indicates that connectedness
with religion and spiritual activities prevents from opting delinquent
behaviors (Shoemaker, 2009). Spiritual wellness develops a sense of
belongingness, safeness, freedom, hope and optimism in life (Ingersoll,
2000).
A good deal of research (Benda & Corwyn, 1997; Furrow,

King, & White, 2004; Larson & Johnson, 1998) suggests that
spirituality supports a positive developmental route in adolescence
in part by creating a sanctuary where moral values are maintained and
transmitted. Higher rates of religiousness are associated with lower
rates of delinquency (Johnson, Li, Larson, &McCullough, 2000).
Adolescence is a time of developmental flow across and through bio-

psycho-social-spiritual system (Curtis & Cicchetti, 2003). Development

theories of religion, spirituality, and faith describe adolescence as a
time of major questioning, rediscovery, and recommitment. According
to Oser and Gmunder (1991), the adolescent transition presents a
major shock which negates the previous patterns of reasoning and
simultaneously initiates the acceptance of new elements and
dimensions” (p. 73). In early adolescence, a youth “must try living
without God, without a supernatural being” (p. 73). This is equally
true of changes in moral judgment development in adolescence (Gregg,
Gibbs, & Basinger, 1994; Hamil-Luker, Land, & Blau, 2004).
Spirituality plays a vital role in regulating most of human

functions from the deep inner needs of human nature. Like many other
important behaviors, spirituality plays a vital role in moderating
delinquent tendencies among adolescents. Spirituality is an aspect of
religiosity and research indicates that religiosity is inversely
proportional to delinquency (Johnson et al., 2000). In the same manner,
a good deal of research is evident that spirituality plays a key role in
protecting (Johnson et al., 2000) youth who are at risk for delinquency
and substance abuse. In the same manner, most of the research on
quality of life focused on clinical population and individuals with
medical diseases like diabetic patients (Mir, 2008) and breast cancer.
With these variables, a limited number of studied targeted normal
populations, but not a single investigation is available which targeted
delinquents as far as the scholarly knowledge and internet access in
Pakistan is concerned. In this regard, the present research is an attempt
to bridge this gap. Spirituality and spiritual wellbeing is well research
in the past literature, however spiritual wellness is a recent creation.
In this regard, the present study is an initiative which aims to examine
the role of quality of life and spiritual wellness in the prediction of
delinquent tendencies among adolescents.
H1. Quality of life would negatively predict delinquent

tendencies among adolescents.

H2. Spiritual wellness would negatively predict

delinquent tendencies among adolescents.
Method
Participants: The present study was based on cross-sectional survey

research design. Sample of the present study consisted of 313
adolescents with age ranged from 16 to 24 years. The sampling criteria
for late adolescence was decided by keeping in view the age range
suggested by life span researcher Newman and Newman
(1987).Participants were selected from different educational levels
including college and university students. Purposive convenient
sampling technique was used to collect the information. Sample was
collected from different public and private sector universities and
colleges of Rawalpindi and Islamabad.
Measures:World Health Organization Quality of Life Questionnaire

was developed by WHOQoL Group (1995).The questionnaire
consists of 26 items and 4 subscales. The questionnaire is a 5-point
ranting scale. The response categories include strongly agree = 5
agree = 4, neutral = 3, disagree = 2 and strongly disagree = 1. There is
no cut off scores in the scale therefore high scores indicate high
quality of life and vice versa. Spiritual Wellness Inventory was
developed by Ingersoll (1998). It comprises of 65 items and 13
subscales. Odd items are negatively scored whereas even items are
positively scored. The scale is based on Likert-type 4-point rating
scale. The response categories include strongly agree = 4, agree = 3,
disagree = 2, and strongly disagree = 1. There is no cut off scores in
the scale therefore high scores indicate high spiritual wellness and
vice versa. Self-Reported Delinquency Scale developed by Naqvi
(2007). It comprises of 27 items and 13 subscales. This is a five point
Likert scale with 27 items and 8 subscales. All items are positively
stated. The questionnaire is a 5-point ranting scale. The response
categories include never = 0, once = 1, 2-4 times = 2, 5-10 times = 3,

and 10 or more times = 4. There is no cut off scores in the scale

therefore high scores indicate high delinquency and vice versa.
Procedure:In the present study, adolescents were selected from

different colleges and universities of Rawalpindi and Islamabad.
Adolescent students were approached in their respective institutions
to collect the information. Students were informed about the purpose,
significance, and implications of the study. They were ensured to be
confidant as the information will be kept highly confidential and will
only be used for research purpose. Informed consent was obtained
before administering the questionnaires. Detailed instructions were
provide that how to complete the scales. Questionnaires were
administered during the working hours in order. The researcher
effectively handled the queries of the participants before, during and
after the study. In the end, the participants were thanked for their
valuable corporation in the research.
Results
Descriptive statistics were computed for all study variables

followed by Alpha reliability coefficients and Pearson correlation.
Multiple Regression analysis was applied to test the hypotheses.
Table 1:Descriptive statistics, Alpha reliability coefficients and

zero-order correlations for all study variables (N = 313)
Study variables M SD α 1 2 3
1. Quality of Life 184.59 12.76 .74 - .50** -.19*
Questionnaire
2. Spiritual 88.32 12.11 .82 - -.19*
Wellness
Inventory
3. Self-Reported 15.36 12.47 .88 -
Delinquency
Scale
*p< .01, **p< .001

Table 1 shows descriptive statistics, Alpha reliability

coefficients and zero-order correlations for all study variables. The
reliability coefficients range from .71 for Spiritual Wellness Inventory
to .88 for Self-Reported Delinquency Scale. All the scales have
satisfactory internal consistency. The results indicate that spiritual
wellness has significant positive correlation with quality of life (r =
.51, p < .001) and significant negative correlation with self-reported
delinquency (r = -.19, p< .01). Quality of life has significant negative
correlation with self-reported delinquency (r = -.19, p< .01). However,
quality of life and spiritual wellness exhibited week correlations with
delinquency.
Table 2:Multiple Regression Analysis showing the effect of quality

of life and spiritual wellness on the prediction of self-reported
delinquency (N = 313)
Variables  ∆R2 F
Quality of life -.13*
.043 8.02**
Spiritual wellness -.13*
*p< .05, **p< .001
Multiple Regression analysis is computed with quality of

life and spiritual wellness as predictor variables and self-reported
delinquency as outcome variable. The “R2value of .043 indicates that
4.3% variance in the dependent variable can be accounted for, by the
predictors with F (2,310) = 8.02, p < .001. The results indicate that
quality of life (= -.13, p < .05) and spiritual wellness (= -.13, p < .05)
are significant predictors of self-reported delinquency among
adolescents.

Discussion
Adolescent behaviour plays a vital role in practicing

appropriate and inappropriate behaviors in adulthood. Thus adults
criminal with a background of delinquency are at a greater proportion,
indicating the delinquent tendencies in the early ages lead to
criminology in the adulthood. Besides this, the complex interaction of
psychological, social, economic causes shapes delinquent behaviors
(The Columbia Encyclopedia, 2008). In this regard, the present study
focused on the role of quality of life and spiritual wellness in delinquent
tendencies among adolescents. Quality of life and spiritual wellness
explained 4.3% variance in self-reported delinquency among
adolescents.
The first hypothesis “quality of life would negatively predict

delinquent tendencies among adolescents” was supported in the
current investigation. The findings indicated that quality of life has
significant negative effect on delinquent tendencies among
adolescents. The absence of quality is considered as deviance (Becker,
1973). During adolescence when biological and psychological needs
are not fulfilled and physical and psychological quality of life is lacking,
the risk for delinquency is greater. Early theorists stressed on the role
of biological and psychological characteristics as determinants of
delinquency among in the collectivist society of Philippines. Pakistan
is also a collectivist culture. However the later theories led the attention
toward social and environmental factors in shaping delinquent
tendencies among adolescents (Gutierrez & Shoemaker, 2008).
Besides quality of life, spiritual wellness is also an important

predictor of delinquent tendencies. Only in the last 20 years spirituality
become equally important in the world of counseling, psychology,
and medicine (Ingersoll, 1994; Lawrence, 2002; Richard& Bergin, 1997).
The second hypothesis “spiritual wellness would negatively predict

delinquent tendencies among adolescents” was supported in the

present study. The results showed that spiritual wellness has
significant negative effect on delinquent tendencies among students.
The current findings are in line with the prior research (Johnson et al.,
2000) indicating that spiritual wellness serves as a protecting factor
for adolescents at the greater risk of delinquency.
Spirituality makes healthy life possible by guiding the real

life tasks and preventing from maladapted deviations and
delinquencies (Helminiak, 2001). Spiritual wellness helps in assigning
meanings to life, organizes the realities of life, and establishes a sense
of connectedness with the real life scenarios (Purdy & Dupey, 2003).
Delinquencies, the antisocial behaviors, are the result of
meaninglessness in life (Farrell, Kung, White, & Valois, 2000) that
results due to the inability and incompetence with adopting the social
expectations and moral standards. Spiritual wellness makes healthy
adaptations possible by promoting a sense that life is not useless
instead it is pretty meaningful and worth living (Ingersoll, 2000).
The present study consisted of three potential limitations.

First, in the present study, quality of life, spiritual wellness, and
delinquent tendencies were measured through self-report measures
which may result in single source bias. It would be more appropriate
in the future research to cross-rate the scales by the peers, teachers,
and parents of the adolescents. Second, the study was limited to the
educated participants from colleges and universities, it would be more
appropriate in the future research to consider illiterate adolescents.
Third, the present study was limited to the adolescent students of
Rawalpindi and Islamabad where educational institutions are better
than rural areas of the country. Thus in order to make the findings
more generalizable, rural areas of the country should also be
considered.

Conclusion
The present study is pretty insightful in understanding the

role of quality of life and spiritual wellness among adolescents. The
findings of the present research were in line with the hypotheses. The
study has applied significance. In the light of the findings, improving
quality of life can facilitate in overcoming delinquent tendencies among
adolescent students. Beside quality of life related initiatives, ensuring
spiritual wellness can also serve as a protecting factor against
delinquent tendencies.

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Research
Research The Kullback–Leibler Rationale
THE KULLBACK–
LEIBLER RATIONALE
Zara Omar1
Abstract
A new rationale can be suggested intended for

approximating the normal distribution with a logistic distribution
by using a scaling constant dependant on minimizing the particular
Kullback–Leibler (KL) facts. The new constant 1.749, computed
assuming that the normal distribution is true, produces an
approximation that may be a noticeable difference throughout in
the tails in the distribution in comparison with the minimax
constant of just 1.702, widely used throughout item response theory
(IRT). The actual minimax constant can be marginally better
throughout it’s all round maximum error. It can be suggested which
of the KL constant is more statistically appropriate for use within
IRT.
Keywords: IRT, logistic approximation, Kullback-Leibler

information.
1- Dept of Matematics & Statistics, Institute of Business Management,

(IoBM) Karachi, Pakistan

The Kullback–Leibler Rationale Research
1.Introduction:
In item response theory (IRT), the probability of endorsing an

item as a function of the latent trait level is usually described by either
the logistic or the normal ogive. A different rationale exists for each
choice. The logistic ogive has the advantage of having a closed form
and can be justified by viewing IRT models as a special case of
generalized linear latent variable models (Bartholomew & Knott, 1999).
The normal ogive can be justified by assuming that there is an
underlying continuous variable behind every dichotomous response,
such that if we were able to directly observe the underlying continuous
responses, the correct model for the data would be the standard one-
factor model with normally distributed errors (Lord & Novick, 1974).
The rationale behind the normal ogive is appealing to many IRT
theorists, yet this model is more difficult to work with mathematically.
In practice, because the logistic and normal distributions appear similar
(in that both are symmetric distributions defined on the whole real
line), the logistic ogive that closely approximates the normal ogive is
often used. Several such approximations are possible; in this paper,
an approximation based on the Kulback–Leibler (KL) information is
proposed.
2.Methods:
2.a. The Logistic and the Normal Ogive Rationales in IRT Models
First, two common rationales behind the models based on

the logistic and the normal ogives are reviewed. It should be noted
that other derivations exist as well (Baker & Kim, 2004). Let
be a vector of binary observations for a person,
and let θ be the normally distributed latent trait with density h (θ). In
the first approach, referred to as the general linear latent variable model
approach (Bartholomew & Knott, 1999), the density of x is represented
as

( ) = ℎ( ) Π ( | )
where ( | ) ( ) ( ) ( ( )) and = + , 1 ≤ ≤ .
That is, it is assumed that the observations for

any are independent conditional on θ and that the conditional
distribution of xi belongs to the regular exponential family, where the
canonical parameter is a linear function of θ. Because each is
binary, the conditional distribution of can be written as
( | )= (1 − )1−
where is the probability of endorsing the item given θ. Rewriting

this as
( | ) = (1 − ) ( )
it follows that , and therefore
= ( = 1| ) = 1/(1 + (−( + ))),
which is the familiar logistic ogive. This equation is also a cumulative

distribution function for the logistic distribution.
The model based on the normal ogive can be developed as

follows. It is assumed that underlying each binary indicator is a
continuous variable , such that for some constant , called the
threshold, , and otherwise.
Further, it is assumed that where is normally
distributed. That is, had been observed, a standard factor analytic
model would have fit the data. Then, if we again define as the
probability of endorsing the item given θ,

= ( = 1| ) = ( ≥ | ) = ( ≤ − + ) = ( + ),
where is the cumulative density function for the standard normal

distribution, , and .Thus, as a function of θ
is described by the cumulative density function of This approach
can also yield the logistic model if the errors are assumed to have a
logistic distribution. Any other distribution can also be used.
The normal ogive model has the appealing advantage of

assuming an underlying continuous variable behind every
dichotomous response, an assumption that seems not at all
unreasonable (Lord & Novick, 1974). In doing so, it links IRT with
factor analysis, viewing IRT models as extensions of factor analytic
models to cases where the indicators of the underlying factor are
themselves only partially observed. However, working with the
cumulative normal distribution can be difficult because it does not
have a closed form. For this reason, a common approach is to assume
that the normal model is true, but to use the logistic model as an
approximation (Baker & Kim, 2004; Lord & Novick, 1974). To do this, a
logistic curve that is closest to the standard normal must be chosen.
Existing approximations are briefly reviewed below, and a new one
based on the KL information is proposed.
2.b. Approximating the Standard Normal Distribution with a Logistic

Distribution
The standard normal density is given

by and the logistic density is given
by . The task
is to find the value of the scaling constant k for which these curves

are most indistinguishable. The plot of two curves when k = 1 is

given in Figure 1. This plot suggests that one simple solution is to
choose the value of k that would equate the variances of the two
distributions (Cox, 1970). The variance of the logistic distribution is
, and setting it equal to one yields
This solution is plotted in Figure 2. This approach may be good
enough for many purposes, and the approximation
is often given in the literature (e.g.,
Bartholomew & Knott, 1999).
A more refined approach is to minimize the maximum distance

between the two cumulative density functions (Haley, 1952). That is
Where
The minimax solution is k = 1.702 (see Camilli, 1994, for details

of the derivation), which is the scaling constant most often used in
IRT (Baker & Kim, 2004) 1.1 As will be seen shortly, this solution
yields an approximation under which the maximum difference between
the two cumulative density functions never exceeds 0.01 in absolute
value. Other approximations have also been used. For example,
Amemiya (1981) chose
1 The value of the minimax constant to five decimal places is 1.70174 (see
Camilli, 1994). In some sources (e.g., Mcdonald, 1999) it is incorrectly rounded
to 1.701.

FIGURE 1
The logistics distribution with k=1 and standard normal (solid
Line)
The logistic distribution with k = 1 and the standard normal (solid

line). k = 1.6 simply by computing tables for representative values
of the density function for different values of k.
2.c. The Kullback–Leibler Solution
An approximation based on minimizing the KL information

(Kullback & Leibler, 1951) is now proposed. KL information or relative
entropy is defined as
K(g, f ) = Eg[ln g(x)/f (x)] = ln (g(x)/f (x))g(x) dx

and is a measure of the ability of the likelihood ratio (LR) to

discriminate against f (x) when g(x) is true (Ferguson, 1996). That is,
given a sample X and two hypotheses
K(g, f ) is the average or expected amount of information in the sample

X for distinguishing between , when is true. As is clear
from this definition, and this is not a true distance

function, although it is often called so in the literature.
In this approach, , where g(x) is the standard

normal density and is the logistic density as defined above. That is,
the normal model is assumed to be the true model, and a logistic
approximation is sought that would produce a sample that is most
indistinguishable from that produced by a normal distribution. The
concept
( ) = (− )/(1 + (− ))2
FIGURE 2.
The logistic distribution with k = 1.8 and the standard normal
(solid line).

FIGURE 3.
Difference between the cumulative distribution functions of the

minimax solution and the standard normal (dashed line), and of
the KL solution and the standard normal (solid line).
of “observed” information can be similarly defined by dropping the

expectation, and in this case is given by
2
/ = −12 + – √2 + 2 (1 + (− )).
The KL information is then
( , ) = ( / ) = −12 − √2 + 2 ( (1 + (− )))

Because and The improper integral

involved cannot be written in closed form.
Before obtaining the solution to the equation 0, it

is first necessary to establish that K(g, f ) is finite for all k e” 0 (an
outline of proof is given in the Appendix). Then, setting
( , ) = −1 +2 1 + (− ) = 0 −−2 [ /1 + ( ))] = 0.
The numerical solution to this equation is k H” 1.749, which

was obtained with the aid of Mathematica 5. The minimax and the KL
solutions are now compared. In Figure 3, the differences of the minimax
and the KL cumulative distribution functions from the standard normal
cumulative distribution function are plotted. It should be noted that
the graph of the minimax solution is expected to look better overall
because the value of the scaling constant is obtained by using a more
visually obvious criterion: the maximum vertical distance between
the cumulative distribution functions is minimized. As is often stated
(e.g., Baker & Kim, 2004), the error made by the minimax solution is
never greater than 0.01 in absolute value. The KL solution never does
worse than about 0.015.
Further, while the minimax solution does better at approximating the
middle of the curve, the KL solution does better in the tails of the
normal distribution.
3.Conclusion
When using the logistic ogive to approximate normal ogive
in IRT creates the problem regarding finding a logistic density that is
certainly most indistinguishable in the standard normal. A new
solution to this issue, based on minimizing KL facts, has been
proposed. The new scaling constant 1.75 is comparable to the
particular widely used minimax alternative 1.70. The particular KL
qualifying measure is perhaps really the only gauge used to review
densities inside statistical data. The particular KL alternative really
does much better on approximating the particular tails of the
distribution.

References
Amemiya, T. (1981). Qualitative response models: A survey. Journal

of Economic Literature, 19, 1483–1536.
Baker, F.B. & Kim, S.-H. (2004). Item response theory: Parameter
estimation techniques. New York: Marcel Dekker.
Bartholomew, D.J. & Knott, M. (1999). Latent variable models and
factor analysis. New York: Oxford University Press.
Camilli, G. (1994). Origin of the scaling constant d = 1.7 in item response
theory. Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics,
19, 379–388.
Cox, D.R. (1970). The analysis of binary data. London: Methuen.
Ferguson, T.S. (1996). A course in large sample theory. Boca Raton,
FL: Chapman & Hall.
Haley, D.C. (1952). Estimation of the dosage mortality relationship
when the dose is subject to error. Technical Report 15 (Office
of Naval Research Contract No. 25140, NR-342-022). Stanford
University: Applied Mathematics and Statistics Laboratory.
Johnson, N.L., Kotz, S. & Balakrishnan, N. (1995). Continuous
univariate distributions (Vol. 2). New York: Wiley.
Kullback, S. & Leibler, R.A. (1951). On information and sufficiency.
Annals of Mathematical Statistics, 22, 79–86.
Lord, F.M. & Novick, M.R. (1974). Statistical theories of mental test
scores. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley.
McDonald, R.P. (1999). Test theory: A unified treatment. Mahwah, NJ:
Lawrence Erlbaum. Footnotes

Appendix
Claim 1. ( , ) is finite for all k ≥ 0.
Outline of Proof. Let is a

continuous function of k.
For all k e” 0,
, and
so that h(x) H” “kx for large negative values of x. That is, the
global behavior of this function is at worst linear for all k, and
therefore Eg(h(x))d d, as the standard normal density has finite
moments of all order.
Claim 2. A solution to the differential equation “K (g, f )/”k = 0

exists and is unique.
Outline of Proof. Since
2 ( , ) 1 2 ( )
2 = 2 + 2 ( )2
≥ 0 for all k ≥ 0,
1+
( , ) 1
= − − 2 ( )
1+ ( )
is an increasing function of k, and thus a solution is unique, if it

exists. To show existence, consider
and
l .
Thus, there exists a unique solution.

Discussion
Discussion Benefits of Data Decision Support System . . .
BENEFITS OF DATA DECISION

SUPPORT SYSTEM FOR
EDUCATIONAL INSTITUTIONS
Rabab Naqvi1, Aqil Burney2 & Shelina Bhamani3
Introduction
The world is changing so drastically that even the field of

education is left with no other choice to adopt the changes.
Educational institutes and educationists need to be more flexible to
cope with this ever changing dynamics of the world. As environment
is changing therefore conditions are also changing so as the demands
of educationists and parents. Intangible teaching methodologies like
intuition, personal experience and teaching philosophy no more seems
to be adequate. Conditions are getting tougher and tougher each
day from delivering a lecture to resource allocation and to teachers’
performance assessment.
Academic decision making is a vital part of school and

university administration. Precise, appropriate and timely information
is of immense importance for informed decision making. Usually
decision makers doesn’t get the information in a useful structure or
the data has not been assessed correctly so that they could dig out
the useful and prime information from available data. In order to take
decisions, educationist’s needs to carefully analyze the different
factors involved in dispersion of quality education. However few
academic decisions end up in the change or review of current academic
policies and necessitate episodic assessment for the establishment
of the outcome of change.
1-2 Department of Computer Sciences and Information Technology, Institute

of Business Management, (IoBM), Karachi, Pakistan
3-Department of Education, Institute of Bu siness Ma nagement, (IoBM),
Karachi, Pakistan

Benefits of Data Decision Support System . . . Discussion
There is a requirement for educational institutions in the

current era to meet the competitive edge and demands of their various
participants (Laudon and Laudon, 2002). The rise of technological
softwares, devices and systems has made a significant paradigm shift
in educational planning and execution. The schools and educational
institutions with traditional approaches is not sufficient for the learner
of 21st century and hence these institutions require to adapt to flexible
strategies and bring change in their teaching and learning methods,
learning environment, and modes operandi to meet the requirement of
the learner of today while balancing the work pressure of the human
resource (Chen, 2000). The desire to bring positive changes demands
educational managers not only to be proficient but to manage their
budgetary implications as well (Marakas, 2003). To deal with these
concurring quality concern issues of data support systems, a
technology that allows planning, management, execution and
monitoring of strategic organizational development, is a deific tool for
them to manage data, information, and knowledge of any intervention
and development (Burke and Kendall, 2005).
Concept of Decision Support Systems
People are getting more familiar with decision support systems

as they are gaining an enlarged attractiveness in a variety of domains,
including education, medicine, business, engineering and the military.
Decision support systems are characteristically used for strategic and
tactical business decisions. Situations in which ample amount of
information is outrageous for the intuition of singlehandedly human
decision maker and where exactness and correctness are of importance,
decision support system plays a vital role (Irtishad Ahmad, 2004). It
assists humans in there cognitive deficiencies by incorporating
information from disparate sources, providing quick access to
appropriate information, and helps in taking structured decisions.
Decision making tools, if applied appropriately, increases efficiency,
effectiveness and productivity of a business by allowing them to make
best choices for their technical processes, planning routine tasks,
supply chain or financial investments.
DSS have three fundamental components (Flynn, 2002).
 Database management system (DBMS). It stores huge

amount of data pertinent to the problem for which the DSS
has been designed and also provides a platform for logical
data structure with which the users interact.
 Model-base management system (MBMS). The prime

function of a MBMS is to convert data from the database
into information which helps in making decisions.
 Dialog generation and management system (DGMS). DGMS

responsibility is to boost the user experience while using
DSS and enables them to utilize it as much as possible and
provides user-friendly interface.
Data Decision Support Systems in Multidisciplinary Fields
The use of data decision support system has been found in

wide range of fields which is not limited to information sciences. In
health, from the last decade, information systems are extensively
used in health care to improve patient care (Aydina2, 1997). Decision
support systems, especially designed for health care, helps
practitioners and administrators with decision tasks as information
retrieval, data analysis, diagnosis and test, treatment procedure further
recommendations as critical factors dependent on information
technologies transforming medical care (Bose, 2003). In engineering
and construction sciences, DSS is helping construction and land
developing companies in making swift and vital decisions during the
critical decisions of site selection process. Builders deals with bulk of
data containing valuable information about development projects,
land characteristics, sales/buying records. Decision makers analyze
this bulk information to generate hidden patterns and correlation
within data. Upon this evaluation, builders take the decision of site
selection skipping several other factors like regulations,
demographics, zoning, etc (Irtishad Ahmada, 2004). Designing of a
product and carrying its manufacturing process simultaneously,

features of product, manufacturing process demands and customer

requirements must be processed parallel to product design. Due to the
huge investment in the designing and manufacturing processes, it is
of extreme importance to make correct decisions at the time of designing
and development of the prototyped model which involves many
complex analysis and decision-making tasks (Lida Xua, 2007).
In business management it helps organizations in taking best

decisions and improved efficiency. It assists management in taking
decisions regarding all business processes like budgeting, marketing,
manufacturing, and technical solutions in order to accomplish the
company’s goal in a more efficient way (NEDELCU, 2013). Currently,
in the educational setups the data decision making and warehouses
are only used to operate administrative, admissions and financial
purposes and is only limited to data keeping and data repository
management. However, with the increasing demands of quality
assurance agencies, parents and accreditation boards; educational
intuitions are asked to provide reports pertinent to educational
activities, processes of organizational development, data on student
achievement and progress, teaching quality reports, parental
satisfaction reports, and engagement in community work (Collins,
2009). This demand for quality controls has given a pressure to
educational institution to introduce and improvise data decision making
support systems in their settings (Sharkey and Murnane, 2003).
Decision Support System in Educational Settings
The decision support system in educational settings has an

imperative role in organizational and quality development (Thorn C.
A., 2002). Data decision support enables an institution to transform
the raw data into meaningful information that is well informed and
deliberated by the teams. It is used by administrators, managers and
leaders to integrate the information in their planning and execution of
mission (Thorn C. A., 2003). Several studies have reported the positive
impact of data decision support by acknowledging its contribution in

assessing how various factors influence teaching and learning at the

schools and universities; by identifying the risk factors attached
with students and accordingly inform the financial planning and
execution of change; access and make use of data for organizational
development; provide key information and scenarios to the
stakeholders; and monitor and continuously improve performance
(Visscher, 2001).
Data driven decision making helps educational institutions

in wide range of tasks. Like the most important stakeholders of any
educational institutions are students. Data decision support facilitates
student management in various ways (Herman and Gribbons, 2001).
It allows the educational institutions to keep a record of student
enrollment, drop-out and passing out ratios, keeps a check on student
progression, student satisfaction, their attendance and their extra-
curricular achievement (Connolly and Begg, 2002). Various researchers
regard this as one of the most efficient tools in students’ performance
management since it reproduces statistical student performance and
enrolment graphs in a segregated form desire by the educational
managers.
Various studies have reported implications of data decision

making support systems for reporting key features of the school
standards and goal; a tool that helps monitor and improve teaching
quality by incorporating student , parent and peer evaluation of
teachers and quality of curriculum delivery; it provides facilitation to
the institute to make data accessible to the key stakeholders by
making various forums and communicating key news and information
and it helps maintains a data repository chronological to inform the
state level wise statistics (Nake, 2001; Burke and Kendall, 2005; Chen,
2000; Collins, 2009; Laudon and Laudon, 2002; Nake, 2001).
Apart from managerial and quality assurance support, data

decision making support also offers ease for students and parents to
access curricula and syllabi and it’s horizontal and vertical progression

over the years; orient themselves with the faculty and their profile; be
aware of the key requirements of the institutions; evaluate the
performance of the educational institution just by a click (Wild, Smith,
and Walker, 2001). In addition to this, due to the very nature of the
academic institutions, greater part of the resources related with
instructional programs are allocated to personnel expenses- i.e. to
salaries and other benefit programs for faculty and other non teaching
staff (Henry, 2001). With the help of DSS one could compare and
evaluate the consumption of various resources over short time intervals
less than the full duration of an activity and on that basis, could
allocate resources very efficiently (James Gantt, 1987).
Practices of Data Decisions In Pakistan’s Educational Settings
Ministry of education under the government of Pakistan,

besides the provincial government, has managed and administered
the education of Pakistan. However the federal government is mainly
engaged in curriculum development, accreditation, and funding of
research projects. According to the article 25-A of constitution of
Pakistan, seeking quality education is the right of every child and
state should be responsible for that. Pakistan’s educational system is
classified into five standards: primary, middle, high school, intermediate,
and undergraduate and graduate programs.
Consistent, precise and complete data is mandatory before

planning for any task. Before carrying out proper planning and
management of education system, complete information is required
pertinent to all educational levels (standards) of Pakistan. For this
reason a National Education Census was conducted in 2005 for the
very first time to collect data across the Pakistan. The prime objective
of this consensus was to assist in decision making, policy designing,
educational reforms and improved quality of education in contrast
with the regional settings so that the right policies should be designed
in the right direction. That census helped stakeholders in designing a

data bank for education which facilitate in making of policies which

targeted the deprived areas (Pakistan Bureau of Statistics).
A comparative study research is carried out by (Dr. Bibi Asia
Naz, 2013), in which they compare the decision making practices
between public and private sector universities and concluded that
there exists no difference in public and private sector universities in
making decision practices, there exists a difference between public
and private universities in which decisions are dictated by chair, in
both public and private sectors decision are taken by majority vote
and government institutions are more affected by political pressures
in making decisions in comparison with private sector.
Decision making in universities of Pakistan are influenced

by number of factors including biasness, political pressures, assessing
the situation wrongly and having less or no knowledge of the system.
Research study carried out by (Anwar, 2008) stated that there exist no
set criteria in making decision in universities of Pakistan. Most of the
policy decisions affected politically and teachers were not involved
in decision making process.
Decision support systems are not involved in educational

settings of Pakistan due to unavoidable reasons and therefore there
exists no autonomy of decision making practices. It is in extreme
favor of Pakistan’s educational reform to have an expert system which
will wholly and solely rely on the data bank of collected data regarding
educational settings and therefore helps in taking right decisions at
right time regarding educational policies and management.
Conclusion
Several researchers have also talked about its limitation in

educational settings. Firstly, it is considered to be very tedious and
requires a whole set of expertise to operate information based data
decision support system (Burke and Kendall, 2005; Collins, 2009;
Salpeter, 2004). The process requires data gathering, data management

and data analysis and in the later part data decision making (Thorn,
2001). Secondly, decision making is considered to be highly complex
activity that might not necessary always be informed by the data and
would need circumstantial analysis beyond the apparent facts and so
there is always a question of reliability and benefit of doubt for each
decision that is made. Information systems are highly technologically
oriented and have a huge data set, a flaw in technology could lead to
an unreliable decision and result in a chaos (Salpeter, 2004).

References
Aydina2, J. G. (1997). Evaluating the Impact of Health Care Information
Systems. International Journal of Technology Assessment
in Health Care, 13(2), 380-393.
Anwar, M. N. (2008). Decision Making Practices. Journal of Diversity

Management, 3(4), 19-26.
Bose, R. (2003). Knowledge management-enabled health care

management. Expert Systems with Applications, 24, 59-71.
Burke, and Kendall. (2005). Search Methodologies Introductory

Tutorials in Optimization and Decision Support
Techniques. Springer Science.
Chen, Z. (2000). Computational intelligence for decision support.

LLC: CRP Press.
Collins, A. (2009). Effective program implementation practices:

Bringing research knowledge to practitioners of out-of-
school time programs. Washington, DC: Child Trends.
Condon, K. D. (2007). Integrated Sensing and. LINCOLN

LABORATORY JOURNAL, 16(2), 237-243.
Connolly, T., and Begg, C. (2002). Database Systems: A practical

approach to design, implementation and management.
M.A.: Addison-Wesley.
Dejan Zilli, N. T.-Š. (2009). DSS for academic workload management.

Int. J. Management in Education, 3(2), 179-187.
Dervis Z. Deniz, I. E. (2001). USING AN ACADEMIC DSS FOR

STUDENT, COURSE AND PROGRAM ASSESSMENT., (pp.
12-17). Oslo.

Dr. Bibi Asia Naz, D. A. (2013, July). Decision Making Practices in the
Universities of Pakistan (A Comparative Study). International
Journal of Business and Social Science, 4(7), 274-278.
Flynn, M. J. (2002). Decision Support Systems. In Encyclopedia of

Library and Information Science, Second Edition. Marcel
Dekker, Inc.
Henry, C. A. (2001, June). Developing performance-oriented models

for university resource allocation. Research in Higher
education, 42(3), 353-376.
Herman, J., and Gribbons, B. (2001). Lessons learned in using data to

support school inquiry and continuous improvement. Los
Angeles, C.A.: : Final report to the Stuart Foundation. Center
for the Study of Evaluation.
Irtishad Ahmad, S. A. (2004, July). Development of a decision support

system using data warehousing to assist builders/developers
in site selection. Automation in Construction, 13(4), 525-
542.
Irtishad Ahmada, S. A. (2004). Development of a decision support

system using data warehousing. Automation in construction,
13, 525-542.
James Gantt, D. Y. (1987). Decision Support Systems for Resource

Allocation. Decision Support Systems: Theory and
Application, 31, 373-389.
Laudon, K., and Laudon, J. P. (2002). Management information systems:

managing the digital firm. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-
Hall.
Lida Xua, b. C.-m. (2007, January). A decision support system for

product design in concurrent engineering. Decision Support
Systems, 42(4), 2029-2042.

Marakas, G. M. (2003). Modern Data Warehousing, Mining, and

Visualization - Core Concepts, Upper Saddle . New Jersy:
Pearson.
Nake, F. (2001). Data information and knowledge. Organizational

Semiotics, 41-50.
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Systems Jouranal, 4(4), 12-20.
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30-37.
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from Student Assessment Data. Chicago: AERA.
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Book Review
Book Review What Should I Do? Confronting Dilemmas . . .
WHAT SHOULD I DO? CONFRONTING

DILEMMAS OF TEACHING IN URBAN
SCHOOLS
Alefiyah Sheikh Ismail Hoshangabadwala1
Bibliographic Reference: Richert, A.E (2012). What Should I Do?

Confronting Dilemmas of Teaching in Urban Schools. New York,
NY: Teachers College Press.
What Should I Do? is a compact book, a paperback consisting of 127

pages of acid-free paper, and a “quick read” in terms of usability. It
has been published by Teachers College Press, and is part of the
series on school reform.
The book’s cover page illustrates the urgency and the

magnitude of the issue the title encapsulates. The main title is
presented in bold typeface, outlined by fluorescent green, a color
that pervades the cover: four neon Post It™ notes are overlapped
and inscribed with a list of issues, or dilemmas, and a bright blue
pencil is placed strategically across the cover.
Teaching in the urban setting is riddled with dilemmas-

psychological states of being that put one at the crossroads in terms
of decision- making. From Kansas City to Karachi, pressures of
performing professionally with empathy have lasting ramifications
for the personal and professional identities of teachers around the
world. The book under review titled “What Should I Do? Confronting
Dilemmas of Teaching in Urban Schools”, is authored by Anna Ershler
Richert. It juxtaposes these dilemmas with research-backed
1-Department of Education, College of Economics and Social Development,

Institute of Business Management, (IoBM), Korangi Karachi

What Should I Do? Confronting Dilemmas . . . Book Review
explanations that provide perspective to practitioners and managers

in charge of the teaching- learning process with reference to the
problems that are part of teaching in city schools. The author is a
professor at the School of Education in Mills College, Oakland,
California and has used two-decades rich material on the ethical
concerns of her students learning to teach in urban schools to form
the crux of her work under scrutiny.
The book is written in the form of commentary on narratives, or cases,

that discuss the various dilemmas of teaching in urban schools of the
United States of America. The author presents one case after another
in a thematic thread, interspersing narratives with references from
educational research that substantiate the moral and professional
challenges faced in urban schools. Essays, novels and poems are
referred to while introducing domains of difficulty or exploring the
dynamics of the dilemmas being studied. With a mix of colloquial and
academic language used throughout the book, the author has kept
her tone conversational. She has based her dilemma categories on the
four “teaching commonplaces” conceived by Schwab (1983): the
teacher, the milieu, the content and the student. These categories
consist of the dilemmas about professional identity; about dealing
with student concerns; about content and pedagogy and about
assessment in the urban school context respectively.
In Chapter 1, titled “What Should I Do? Managing Teaching

Dilemmas”, the author begins to define teaching dilemmas as
“situations that require teachers to make a decision for which there is
no easy or ‘right’ answer.” (p.6), going on to quote Burbules (1997)
who described teaching dilemmas as the acknowledgment of deep,
intractable opposition between contrasting aims and values. In
Managing Teaching Dilemmas, the author claims that working in the
midst of ambiguous options is essential to the teaching profession
and iterates Lampert’s (1985) suggestion for teachers to learn to
manage instructional dilemmas instead of endeavouring to ‘solve’

them. Since education happens in the context of human relationships,

care should be taken by teachers to react to the psychological and
behavioral requirements of all stakeholders, mainly students,
appropriately, which often presents contradicting values in terms of
how to deal with situations. In The Dilemma Case narratives, the
author explains how she went about organizing her writing, and why
so rarely, if ever, does any dilemma discussed in the book offer any
closure. In “Considering Context”, the author makes an addition to
McDonald’s (1992) description of instruction happening in a “wild
triangle of teachers, students and subjects”, (p.8) with the context
within which the instruction takes place. The author asserts that
urban schools are rich in terms of culture and the challenge lies in
making them function in the best way possible for students, without
them having to forfeit either their indigenous values or the values of
the culture of power. However, there are challenges such as poverty,
violence and racism that are detrimental to the learning experiences
of urban school students. Issues closer to home that can be dilemmatic
include lack of resources, poverty and language. Dilemmas more
relevant to the Western context include immigration, legal citizenship
and ethnicity.
In Chapter 2, titled “Who Am I as a Teacher? Dilemmas of Professional

Identity Development”, the author, in the words of Ronfeldt &
Grossman (2008), defines the dilemma in becoming a teacher: for
novice teachers, the journey towards developing a professional
identity is particularly challenging, since they have to ‘act the part’
before they have fully learned the ropes to their occupation. In
“Professional Identity and the Urban Context”, the author touches
upon the conflict caused by the experiences of teachers that are
different in the learner phase and in the context of employment once
they are qualified. One dilemma that is discussed in detail and
explicated by the case of a teacher is standardization (Laura’s Dilemma,
p.22); another is that of violence (Lucy’s Dilemma, p.18). For both the
teachers, it was not just a question of what to do, but what they were

What Should I Do? Confronting Dilemmas . . . Book Review
supposed to do as teachers. Race and language, furthermore, prove

problematic for teachers who want to provide culturally rich and
relevant experiences to their students but are unsure of how to do so
when their own racial and linguistic identities clash with those of their
students. For all these cases, the author forwards La Boskey’s (2004)
assertion that limited and varied experiences and personal histories
cull our concepts, attitudes and knowledge of teaching. The author
repeatedly claims that learning to teach “involves constructing and
reconstructing one’s identity as a teacher”.
In Chapter 3, title “How Do I Care for Other People’s Children? Dilemmas

About Students”, the author makes an insightful observation about
the real challenge in urban schools lying with the presumptions
regarding these schools based on novice teachers’ prior school
experiences and limited rhetoric about urban schooling. In this chapter,
a complex scenario of the use of poverty and violence by students,
and the importance of sensing the authenticity of the effects of these
problems is also mentioned. It is here that the author asks us to
understand that empathizing with the effects of poverty is implausible
without having experienced it, in light of a poem, from which it is
evident for the author that “economical poverty does not mean
emotional, spiritual or intellectual poverty.”(p. 42)
In Chapter 4, titled “What Should I Teach and How? Curriculum and

Instruction Dilemmas”, the author introduces us to the challenges of
curriculum, which in the “diverse context of the urban school typically
involves a negotiation between a teacher and a student (p.62).” Often,
the way in which students in this context engage with the curriculum
presented start to make meaning out of it through their unique
experiences, takes it away from what the teacher has initially planned.
The author considers curriculum development to be central to good
instruction and assumes a holistic curriculum is somehow necessary
for students to lead productive and happy lives. In this chapter,
diversity is the central issue, and race and racism make a comeback.

Assessment, the bane of every educator’s existence, forms the matter

for Chapter 5, titled “What Have My Students Learned and How Will
I Know? Assessment Dilemmas”. It is truly a matter of gravity when it
is used as a gatekeeping device. Before considering the dilemmas of
assessment in the urban context, the author discusses the
sociocultural perspective of testing and the difference between
assessment and evaluation. These issues, coupled with the questions
of objectivity and subjectivity, are discussed in the light of case
narratives of various teachers (Sylvia’s Dilemma, p.83; Tanya’s
Dilemma, p.93; Luella’s Dilemma, p.89)
In Chapter 6, titled “What will I Do”, the author makes it clear that a
commitment to act is imperative in each instance of dilemma, and that
“just recognizing the difference between a teaching problem that can
be solved and a dilemma that must be managed can begin to mitigate
teaching’s uncertain nature (p.104)” The author discusses the
importance of learning from these and other dilemmas, and that of
sharing them with others, as a conclusion to her work.
Although this book is set in the context of the American urban school,
many novice and experienced teachers locally would find truths in
these narratives that are nevertheless relevant. As such, it is a valuable
addition for professional reading in all urban school contexts,
particularly those where poor resources, crime, language disparity
and poverty pose dilemmas for teachers. Graduate researchers and
policy makers in the education sector stand to benefit from the rich
academic groundwork of this book as well.

Oct2014 Volume 16 Number 3
INSTRUCTIONS TO AUTHORS
(Research Section)
1. Papers must be in English.

2. Papers for publication should be sent in triplicate or by e-mail to:
Managing Editor, Pakistan Business Review
Institute of Business Management
Korangi Creek, Karachi- 75190, Pakistan
UAN: (9221) 111-002-004 Fax: (9221) 3509-0968, 3509-2658
E-mails: sabina@iobm.edu.pk, emec@iobm.edu.pk
Submission of a paper will be held to imply that it contains original unpublished work and is not
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6. Acknowledgements and information on grants received can be given before the references or
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7. Important formulae (displayed) should be numbered consecutively throughout the manuscript
as (1), (2), etc., on the right hand side of the page where the derivation of formula has been
abbreviated, it is of great help to referees if the full derivation can be presented on a separate
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8. Footnotes should be kept to a minimum and be numbered consecutively throughout the text
with superscript arabic numerals.
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publications should appear as follows: “Khan (1978) reported that….” Or “This problem has
been a subject in literature before [e.g., Khan (1978) p. 102].” The author should make sure
that there is a strict “one-to-one correspondence” between the names (years) in the text and
those on the list. At the end of the manuscript (after any appendices) the complete references
should be listed as:
for monographs and books.
Ahmad, Jaleel, 1978, Import substitution, trade and development, Amsterdam: North-Holland,
For contributions to collective works
Newbery, Daved M.G., 1975,. The use of rental contract in peasant agriculture, in: Reynods,
ed., Agriculture in development theory, New Haven: Yale University Press p. 3-40.
Continued next page
PAKISTAN BUSINESS REVIEW OCT2014

Volume 16 Number 3 Oct2014
INSTRUCTIONS TO AUTHORS
(Research Section)
From previous page:
For periodicals
Baumol, W.J., 1982, Applied fairness theory and rational policy, American Economic
Review, 72(4): 639561.
Note that journal titles should not be abbreviated.
10 . Illustrations should be provided in triplicate (one original drawn in black ink on white
paper and or with two photocopies). Care should be taken that lettering and symbols
are of a comparable size. The drawings should not be inserted in the text and should
be marked on the back with figure numbers, title of paper and name of author. All
graphs and diagrams should be numbered consecutively in the text in arabic numerals.
Graph paper should be ruled in blue and any grid lines to be shown should be inked
black. Illustrations of insufficient quality which have to be redrawn by the publisher
will be charged to the author.
11 . All unessential tables should be eliminated from the manuscript. Tables should be
numbered consecutively in the text in arabic numerals and typed on separate sheets.
Any manuscript which does not conform to the instructions may be returned for
necessary revision before publication.
12. As per the revised policy IOBM faculty members have to publish one paper in
the PBR every year.
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literature, fiction, biography, fashion, philosophy etc. falloutside the scope of
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14. Papers and references should conform to the APA format.
PAKISTAN BUSINESS REVIEW OCT2014

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PBR

PAKISTAN BUSINESS REVIEW

Volume 16 Number 3 October 2014

Monetary Approach to Exchange Rate Determination: Empirical Evidence

PAKISTAN BUSINESS REVIEW OCT 2014

Chief Editor: Prof. Dr. Shahida Wizarat

PAKISTAN BUSINESS REVIEW OCT 2014

PAKISTAN BUSINESS REVIEW OCT 2014

PAKISTAN BUSINESS REVIEW OCT 2014

Whereas the sign of the coefficient of differential interest is

1- Pakistan Shipowners Govt. College, Karachi

447 PAKISTAN BUSINESS REVIEW OCT2014

One of the important puzzles in the areas of international

However, not all the results of the structural models of

2.Significance of the Study

PAKISTAN BUSINESS REVIEW OCT2014 448

understanding of exchange rate dynamics. This was because of

449 PAKISTAN BUSINESS REVIEW OCT2014

Wolff (1987) employed time varying parameter techniques of

Evidence of validity of PPP for Pak-rupee / US-dollar exchange rate

PAKISTAN BUSINESS REVIEW OCT2014 450

Lutfur Rahman & Jashim Uddin (2009) inquires the

Haffez-ur-Rahman (2010) analyzed the effect of foreign exchange

4. Methodology and Description of Data

Macroeconomists and experts in international finance have

St = β0 + β1 ( mt – m t*) + β2 (yt – yt*) + β3 ( rt – r t*) + β4 ( πt – π t*) + ε t 1

451 PAKISTAN BUSINESS REVIEW OCT2014

An asterisk on a variable denotes that it is a variable for foreign country.

This equation shows a model which is called Frenkel-Bilson

β4 = 0, β1 > 0, β2 < 0 , β3 > 0

In other words, Frenkel-Bilson model which is based on

PAKISTAN BUSINESS REVIEW OCT2014 452

It is worth mentioning here that Frenkel-Bilson model specifies

ft = β1 ( mt – mt*) + β2 (yt – yt*) + β3 ( rt – rt*)................2

This is named as Frenkel-Bilson fundamental in the literature.

ft = β1 ( mt – mt*) + β2 (yt – yt*) + β3 ( πt – πt*)................3

This model imposes coefficient restrictions as;

Β1 > 0, β2 < 0, β3 < 0

These coefficient restrictions are in accordance with

5. Data and Methodology for Estimating Empirical Model

5.1 Data Used

453 PAKISTAN BUSINESS REVIEW OCT2014

used is industrial production. Treasury interest rate is used as a

5.2 Methodology Used

This study estimates Frenkel-Bilson type model, as given below, to

st = β1 ( mt – mt*) + β2 (yt – yt*) + β3 ( rt – rt*) + εt ......................4

As we are using a different notation, such as le = st, difm2 = mt – m*t

let = β1 difm2 + β2 difip + β3 difr + εt...........................5

First of all, this study investigates stationarity or otherwise

PAKISTAN BUSINESS REVIEW OCT2014 454

ADF test may have low power as has been suggested by

This study uses the multivariate Johansen cointegration

First of all a vector auto-regressive (VAR) model of kth order is

Ai denotes the n  n matrix of parameters.  shows the matrix of deterministic terms.

455 PAKISTAN BUSINESS REVIEW OCT2014

6. Results and Empirical Findings

Stationarity Tests of the Variables

The appropriate model to be estimated depends on the nature

Lpm2 ( log of Money Stock -0.6 34356 -3.590537 Non-Stationary

St = β0 + β1 ( mt – m t) + β2 (yt – yt) + β3 ( rt – r t) + β4 ( πt – π t) + ε t 1

ft = β1 ( mt – mt) + β2 (yt – yt) + β3 ( rt – rt*)................2

ft = β1 ( mt – mt) + β2 (yt – yt) + β3 ( πt – πt*)................3

st = β1 ( mt – mt) + β2 (yt – yt) + β3 ( rt – rt*) + εt ......................4