National Variables

(Session 15)
Gustavo Zárate T.
Fundamental Studies Head
Universidad Privada Boliviana
Sustainable Energy Information Management
Program
Quito, Ecuador
October 7, 2016
Outline

1. Introduction to National Variables

2. National Variables by sector

 Power sector
 Hydrocarbons sector
 Coal sector
 Renewable energy sector

3. National Economic Variables

4. National Demographic Variables

5. Sources to Obtain Information

Definition

Are all those economic, social,

demographic and energy variables,
which in combination with the energy
flow variables are useful for conducting
a comprehensive analysis of the energy
sector in a country.

The combinations among variables of

supply and demand of energy and
national variables are known as
indicators of the energy sector.

Source: Energy Statistics Manual. OLADE, 2016.

Economic and Energy Statistics

Energy statistics are series of values over time, thus quantifying the
flows of energy through the energy chain, as other variables related
to the energy sector are reserves and potential production
capacities, processing capabilities, transportation capabilities,
storage capabilities, price, etc.

It can also be included in these statistics, some economic variables

and social, which are of great importance for the analysis of
behavior energy of a country.

Source: Energy Statistics Manual. OLADE, 2016.

Economic and Energy Statistics

Installed power generation capacity

Electricity coverage

Maximum power demand

Oil and gas production

Oil refining capacity

Coal production

Ethanol production

Source: Manual de Estadística Energéticas. OLADE, 2011.

Economic and Energy Statistics

GDP at constant prices. Total and sectorial

Inflation, price index (industrial, wholesaler)

Total population, regional, urban and rural, EAP

Exports and imports in value

Source: Manual de Estadística Energéticas. OLADE, 2011.

 National Variables

Economic Demographic
Energy Variables
Variables Variables
• Power sector variables • Total GDP • Total population
• Hydrocarbons sector • Primary GDP • Total urban
variables • Secondary GDP population
• Coal sector variables • Tertiary GDP • Total rural population
• Renewable energy • Minimum salary • Economically active
sector variables population
Energy variables

Evolution of per capita total electricity consumption

Source: SIEE OLADE

National Variables

Energy
supply-
demand
Obtained from variables
the Energy
Balance analysis
National
indicators of
the energy
sector
National
Variables
Energy Variables
Choose the required variables
Information is collected and indicators built
variables
Outline

1. Introduction to National Variables

2. National Variables by sector

 Power sector
 Hydrocarbons sector
 Coal sector
 Renewable energy sector

3. National Economic Variables

4. National Demographic Variables

5. Sources to Obtain Information

 Energy variables: Power sector variables
Power generation installed capacity
It is the sum of the nominal installed capacity of all the electric power plants
and self-producers in a given country. Big self-producers are considered as
those units that are in the the magnitude of 2 MW of installed capacity.
Total installed capacity in LAC in MW, 2013
Geothermal, 1449, 1%

Steam turbine
(Coal), 64134,
19%

Hydro, 161285, 48%

Gas turbine,
73637, 22%

Internal combustion
Engine (Diesel),
27564, 8% Other, 4136, 1% Nuclear; 4425; 1%

Source: SIEE OLADE

 Energy variables: Power sector variables
Electricity access (Total electricity coverage)
It is the percentage of households that have access to electricity services with respect to the
total number of households in the country. This estimation could be sub-divided on those
households that have electricity services (either through the national grid or with self
generation such as with diesel generators) or those households that have electricity only
because they are connected to the national grid. In case there is not information in the census,
it can be assumed that the are 4 people per household.

Source: SIEE OLADE

 Variables of the electricity sector: Power demand in MW
It is the peak in the curve national load dispatch, the statistical period under
value. It is recorded in the period of time for measurement, e.g. annual.

Consumption by sector and uses - Net Final Consumption

Electricity (GWh)
25,000.00

20,000.00

15,000.00

10,000.00

5,000.00

0.00
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Residential Industrial Commercial

Source: SIEE OLADE

Outline

1. Introduction to National Variables

2. National Variables by sector

 Power sector
 Hydrocarbons sector
 Coal sector
 Renewable energy sector

3. National Economic Variables

4. National Demographic Variables

5. Sources to Obtain Information

Variables hydrocarbon sector
Participation of consumption by energy and sectors: Caribbean - 2015
[Kbep]

Source: SIEE OLADE

Variables hydrocarbon sector

Proven Natural Gas reserves vs. production in Venezuela and Caribbean

Natural gas: proven reserves and production

6,000 60,000

5,000 50,000

4,000 40,000
Caribbean reserves

Mm3 production
Gm3 reseves

Venezuela reserves
3,000 30,000 Venezuela production
Caribbean production
2,000 20,000

1,000 10,000

0 0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2014

Source: SIEE OLADE

Variables hydrocarbon sector
Evolution of refining capacity in the Caribbean (selected countries) in
KBBL and percentage
100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
1970 1980 1990 2000 2015

Barbados Cuba Jamaica Dominican Republic Suriname Trinidad & Tobago

Source: SIEE OLADE

Outline

1. Introduction to National Variables

2. National Variables by sector

 Power sector
 Hydrocarbons sector
 Coal sector
 Renewable energy sector

3. National Economic Variables

4. National Demographic Variables

5. Sources to Obtain Information

Variables coal industry
Evolution of the final inventory of coal in Kt

10000

8000

6000
Argentina
Brasil
4000
Colombia
México
2000

0
1984
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982

1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
-2000

Source: SIEE OLADE

Variables coal industry
Evolution of coal production in kt and participation in %

100%

90% 100,000

80%
80,000
70%
Otros
60% México
60,000
50% Colombia
Chile
40%
40,000 Brasil
30% ALyC
20% 20,000
10%

0% 0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2013

Source: SIEE OLADE

Outline

1. Introduction to National Variables

2. National Variables by sector

 Power sector
 Hydrocarbons sector
 Coal sector
 Renewable energy sector

3. National Economic Variables

4. National Demographic Variables

5. Sources to Obtain Information

Variables renewable industry
Evolution of production of sugarcane in kt

450000

400000

350000

300000

250000 Brasil
200000 Cuba
México
150000

100000

50000

0
0 1
1970 2
1980 3
1990 4
2000 5
2013 6

Source: SIEE OLADE

Variables renewable industry
Renewability index

Source: SIEE OLADE

Energy Statistics

Final consumtion of Electricity in KBEP

Final consumption 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014 2015

Barbados 289,97 350,69 436,23 548,17 593,65 557,83 578,23

Belize 216,83 321,16 354,74 374,09
Grenada 27,26 49,24 70,23 81,52 114,49 111,03 114,03
Guyana 161,72 268,29 295,14 209,93 295,60 455,86
Haiti 215,00 140,65 180,14 205,36 141,83 253,98
Jamaica 1.296,32 3.029,97 3.737,85 3.994,44 2.008,20 1.864,64
Suriname 734,85 779,46 645,35 839,66 958,80 1.211,53
Trinidad & Tobago 1.922,00 2.246,05 2.976,31 4.053,61 4.901,53 5.766,30

The combination of these data allows for charts and graphs to perform energy
audits.
Source: Informe de Estadística Energéticas. OLADE, 2012.
Energy Statistics

Total supply of electricity in Kbep

Total Supply 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014 2015

Barbados 333,96 400,88 488,02 615,13 636,74 623,68 637,75
Belize 250,37 356,38 395,07 416,62
Grenada 34,08 56,90 82,78 95,23 129,33 124,25 128,23
Guyana 190,22 351,93 556,17 398,94 537,61 606,81
Haiti 369,90 306,70 338,67 344,71 402,13 640,35
Jamaica 1523,16 3295,71 4092,98 4598,42 2565,33 2473,90
Suriname 801,76 868,68 726,19 940,26 1068,04 1350,51
Trinidad & Tobago 2216,31 2668,62 3382,64 4350,83 5257,18 6130,86

All variables can be analyzed by country, region, energy source or stage of the
chain.
Source: Informe de Estadística Energéticas. OLADE, 2012.
Energy Statistics
These comparisons allow us to infer
production and consumption
behaviors.

The scales begin to change when a

region compared to the rest of the
world.

These data also are modified

depending on the energy source
being analyzed.

Source: Sistema de Información Económica Energética. Energía en Cifras. OLADE, 2012.

Energy Statistics
Final consumption by source and sector Mtoe / day to 2013
Latin America and the caribbean

Source: BID
Economic Variables
 Economic and Social Variables

The importance of economic

variables lies on their
applicability and functionality to
develop a comprehensive
assessment of the economic
evolution of the countries and
making a benchmark with other
countries or regions. For
example, evaluating the GDP
growth in a country or a region
enables the analysis the economy,
that might combined with social
variables like population.

Source: C-SERMS Baseline Report and Assessment, 2015

Economic Variables
GDP Records
It is the national GDP. It can be divided in total GDP or by economic sectors:

Annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by activity at current prices, 2013

2000
Thousand millions of current USD

GDP
1800
1600 Public, social and personal service
1400 activities
Financial intermediation
1200
1000 Transport, storage and
800 communications
Wholesale and retail trade, repair of
600
goods, and hotels and restaurants
400 Construction
200
Electricity, gas and water supply
0
Manufacturing

Mining and quarrying

Agriculture, hunting, forestry and

fishing
Source: CEPAL
Economic Variables
GDP by economic activity in Antigua and Barbuda at current
prices

Source: CEPALSTAT
 Economic Variables
Public expenditure in Latin America and the Caribbean
Expenditure
% of GDP at Annual growth at
current prices constant prices

Final consumption 83.7 -0.2 % (2015)

Gross capital
20.1 -6.2 % (2015)
formation

Exports of goods
17.9 3.9 % (2015)
and services

Imports of goods
-21.2 -1.9 % (2015)
and services

Statistical
-0.4 % (2015)
discrepancy

Source: CEPALSTAT
Economic and Energy variables
Energy intensity (boe / KUS$ 2010)

Source: SIEE OLADE

 Economic and Energy variables
GDP per capita in selected countries of the Caribbean (US$ 2005)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Barbados 14,757 14,380 14,423 14,708 14,754 15,256 16,047 16,235 16,211 15,892 15,855 15,895 15,863 15,775 15,722
Belize 3,783 3,880 3,985 4,260 4,525 4,523 4,611 4,544 4,574 4,492 4,527 4,510 4,570 4,530 4,576
Dominican 3,891 3,900 4,063 3,992 3,985 4,291 4,682 5,007 5,097 5,076 5,426 5,522 5,605 5,799 6,165
Republic
Grenada 6,336 6,208 6,421 7,029 6,916 7,837 7,502 7,936 7,985 7,431 7,366 7,394 7,280 7,427 7,682
Guyana 2,449 2,483 2,501 2,475 2,460 2,400 2,508 2,667 2,701 2,771 2,874 3,012 3,139 3,286 3,398
Haiti 774 753 740 731 695 698 704 718 715 727 679 707 719 740 751
Jamaica 4,198 4,218 4,224 4,345 4,370 4,382 4,485 5,228 5,170 4,921 4,827 4,886 4,833 4,834 4,828
Suriname 5,668 5,917 5,988 6,305 6,262 6,623 7,292 7,586 7,825 7,986 8,321 8,680 8,862 9,037 9,264
Trinidad & 9,424 9,779 10,515 11,995 13,110 13,742 15,643 16,260 16,730 15,922 15,840 15,782 15,946 16,178 16,286
Tobago

Source: Energy Statistics Manual. OLADE, 2016

Demographic Variables
Demographic variables
Population pyramid by sex in Suriname in 2015

Source: CEPALSTAT
 Demographic variables Urban & Rural Population
In this graph we can see the evolution of rural and urban population in some countries
in LAC, where it can be seen that in some cases urban population has increased,
decreased, remain high or low.

Rural & Urban Population as % of total population in some LAC countries

100
90
80
70
60
50
40
Rural
30
Urban
20
10
0
1960
1960
1980
2000
2014

1960
1980
2000
2014

1960
1980
2000
2014

1960
1980
2000
2014

1980
2000
2014

1960
1980
2000
2014

1960
1980
2000
2014

1960
1980
2000
2014
Barbados Belize Brazil Haiti Mexico Puerto T&T Uruguay
Rico

Source: World Bank

Economic and Energy Variables
Evolution of the final energy consumption per capita in Caribbean (boe /
hab)

Source: SIEE OLADE

 Economic and Energy Variables
Industrial Energy Intensity in selected countries of the Caribbean in boe/kUS$ 2010
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Barbados 1.90 1.61 1.08 0.73 1.03 1.03 1.46
Belize 1.86 3.42 2.55
Dominican Republic 3.30 2.44 1.29 1.29 1.04 1.12 1.25 1.08
Grenada 0.73 0.78 0.58 0.69 0.57 0.62 0.64
Guyana 12.90 16.89 22.05 13.60 27.77 19.93 17.00
Haiti 3.69 4.46 2.27 3.02 2.65 2.32 1.99
Jamaica 1.71 2.79 1.18 2.18 2.64 4.04 0.96
Suriname 1.88 0.86 3.32 5.90 3.65 0.83 0.82
Trinidad & Tobago 6.44 19.30 33.63 33.70 41.31 40.99 33.72

Oil imports/Total energy imports in selected countries of the Caribbean

Source: SIEE OLADE

 Combination of Energy Variables with Demographic Variables
Due to their different conditions and energy uses, rural and urban population can be
separately studied in order to see their impact on the energy sector.

Rural and urban population with access to electricity (as % of total rural and
urban population respectively)
100
90
80
70
60
50
40 Rural
30 Urban
20
10
0

2012
1990
2000
2012

1990
2000
2012

1990
2000
2012

1990
2000
2012

1990
2000
2012

1990
2000
2012

1990
2000
2012

1990
2000

1990
2000
2012
Bolivia Brazil Colombia Dom Rep Haiti Mexico Peru T&T Venezuela

Source: World Bank

Sources to Obtain Information of the Mentioned
Variables and Others

• SIEE/OLADE
• IADB: http://www.iadb.org/en/topics/energy/energy-database/energy-
database,19144.html?view=v17
• World Bank
• CEPAL:
http://estadisticas.cepal.org/cepalstat/web_cepalstat/perfilesNacionales.asp?idioma=e
• Associations or organizations involved in the development of a country or a region in the
energy sector, social or economic areas.
• National Census
• Ministries of energy and related to other relevant sectors
THANK YOU!!!