Survai Fraud Indonesia 2016 Final
Survai Fraud Indonesia 2016 Final
Survai Fraud Indonesia 2016 Final
This study investigated the determinant factors of financial statement fraud (FSF) by
employing the Fraud Pentagon model as a new approach. This study empirically examines 14
companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange that incurred sanctions from the Financial
Services Authority during the period 2013-2015, and 14 comparable companies as a control
sample that were similar in both industry and size. This research is an explanatory research that
applies logistic regression analysis to test 10 hypotheses on the effect of pressure, opportunity,
rationalization, capability, and arrogance on FSF in Indonesia. The results show that free cash
flow as a proxy of pressure; independence of the audit committee as a proxy of opportunity, total
accruals as a proxy of rationalization, and disclosure of doubtful debts as a proxy of Capability
have significant and negative effect on FSF. Those variables must be considered by external and
internal auditors, investors, and those charged with governance, as well as government in their
decision-making process for consideration of the occurrence of FSF.
INTRODUCTION
Fraud has become a global phenomenon due to the fact that it occurs in many countries in
various sectors and industries, in addition to being carried out by actors at various different
levels. The Global Fraud Study (2016) conducted by the Association of Certified Fraud
Examiners (ACFE) revealed that the losses caused by fraud are equal to 5% of the annual
revenue of the company, with a total loss of more than $6.3 billion from the 2,410 cases of fraud
that occur globally. Of the total losses mentioned above, $975,000 was due to fraud in the form
of financial statement fraud. Crowe (2011) developed the Crowe’s Pentagon Fraud model. This
model expanded the previous model of fraud which is the fraud triangle model and the fraud
diamond model by adding the arrogance of the perpetrator. The Fraud Triangle model holds that
there are three factors that influence the occurrence of fraud, namely pressure, opportunity, and
rationalization (Turner, Mock, & Srivastasa, 2003). Wolfe & Hermanson (2004) added another
factor, namely capability, that can influence the occurrence of fraud and extended the model into
the Fraud Diamond model (capability). In their argument, Wolfe & Hermanson (2004) stated that
the perpetrators of such fraud have reasons such as pressure, opportunity, and rationalization to
commit fraud activities; however, fraud will not occur unless the offender also has the capability
to commit it. Several studies have previously stated that financial statement fraud can be detected
from some of the indications in companies’ financial statements (Dechow, 2011; Persons, 1995).
Most previous research stated that opportunity is one of the factors that mostly affect the
financial statement fraud (Beasley, 1996; Beasley et al., 2000; Rezaee, 2005; Person, 2005).
Skousen (2008) states that only five proxies of the pressure factor and two proxies of the
opportunity factor were effective in predicting and detecting financial statement fraud. Skousen
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(2008) also states that the rationalization factor is not effective as a factor to detect financial
statement fraud and acknowledges the difficulties in measuring the rationalization factor in his
research. Therefore, it is interesting to have it studied further together with the other factors of
capability and arrogance (Kaminski et al, 2004).
Furthermore, several other prior studies on financial statement fraud have been conducted
in the context of Indonesia. Most of these, however, have investigated the factors contained in
the Fraud Triangle model (Hanifa & Laksito, 2015; Fimanaya & Syaruddin, 2014) and the Fraud
Diamond model (Sihombing & Rahardjo, 2014; Manurung Hardika, 2015) in detecting financial
statement fraud. Accordingly, financial statement fraud examined from the perspective of the
Fraud Pentagon is still under-researched, thus it is interesting and important to conduct further
study in this area. The main motivation of this research is to ascertain those factors within the
Fraud Pentagon model that significantly affect the occurrence of financial statement fraud in
Indonesia. This study is expected to contribute to the scientific development of theories and
practices of financial statement fraud in Indonesia.
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state that an individual who, despite having the pressure, opportunity, and rationalization, may
not commit fraud unless they also have the capability to do so. Sorunke (2016) and Tugas (2012)
stated that the previous model of fraud triangle and fraud diamond theory is not yet reliable to
detect financial statement fraud. Crowe (2011) explain that there are five elements of arrogance
from the CEO perspective: 1) A large ego: the CEO is seen as a celebrity rather than as a
businessman; 2) They can cut through internal control and do not get caught; 3) They have a
suppressing attitude (Bullying- attitude); 4) They apply an autocratic management style; and 5)
They fear the loss of position or status.
The second factor that cause financial statement fraud is opportunity (Cressey, 1953).
Companies with weak internal controls will have many loopholes that can present an opportunity
for management to manipulate transactions or accounts. Beasley (2000) states that good
corporate governance mechanisms will reduce the potential for financial statement fraud. Farber
(2005) fraud firms have poor governance in the year prior to fraud detection. Furthermore, Smith
et al (2000) suggest that the strength of internal controls in the company will be inversely related
to the likelihood managers commit fraud. Previous research conducted in Indonesia by Tiffani &
Marfuah (2016), Sihombing & Rahardjo (2014), and Kusumawardhani (2013) also proved that
opportunity may affect financial statement fraud.
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Wolfe & Hermanson (2004) stated that fraud can only occur if the right people have the
right capability to commit it. Hardika (2015) stated that capability is a factor that affects financial
statement fraud. A position as a CEO or leader can be a factor of fraud since individuals in such
roles can use their position to influence others to commit fraud. A change of directors will be
closely related to political content and interest, which can generate a conflict of interest. Wolfe &
Hermanson (2004) concluded that a change of directors may be an indicator of fraud.
HYPOTHESES
Previous empirical studies observed factors of financial statement fraud of the perspective of
fraud triangle and fraud diamond model. However, this study observed how five factors of fraud
pentagon model, i.e. pressures, opportunity, rationalization, capability, and arrogance affect the
occurrence of financial statement fraud. To accomplish this, hypotheses are as follows:
H1: A bigger change in assets will affect the occurrence of financial statement fraud.
H2: Finance is an additional external pressure for the company that affects the occurrence of financial
statement fraud.
H3: Free cash flow of the company will reduce the need for external financing for the company, which can
reduce the occurrence of financial statement fraud.
H4: A presence of independent audit committee members will reduce the occurrence of financial statement
fraud.
H5: Better total accruals as management’s estimate on accounting earnings reduces the occurrence of
financial statement fraud.
H6: Unqualified audit opinion reports show a lower occurrence of financial statement fraud.
H7: A change in auditors will reveal the occurrence of financial statement fraud.
H8: A change of director indicates a higher tendency of the occurrence of financial statement fraud.
H9: The non-disclosure of a doubtful debt policy indicates a higher tendency of the occurrence of financial
statement fraud.
H10: Arrogance affects the occurrence of financial statement fraud.
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METHOD
This study employs a quantitative research method using a logistic regression model to
test the hypothesis. Logistic regression will result in a regression model to test the probability of
occurrence and the extent to which the dependent variable can be predicted by the independent
variables. There is no requirement for a normality test or heteroskedasticity test, and classical
assumptions are applied to the independent variables (Hair, 2015). Sample of the research are
companies sanctioned by Indonesia Financial Service Authoritative due to violation of Bapepam
Regulation VIII.G7 in the period 2013-2015. There were 14 fraud companies and other 14 non-
fraud companies included in this research sample. The control sample selected non-fraud
companies from the same industry that all had similar levels of assets, with a range of up to 30%.
Multicollinearity Test
The test results for multicollinearity for 10 existing proxies and the test results showed
that there is a strong correlation between the ten existing proxies.
The significance test model used the Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients value table to
ascertain the results of testing the feasibility of the logistic regression models formed. The
following test result was obtained: Sig. Model value of 0.000 with an alpha value < significance
of 5%. Ho is thus rejected, and the study concludes that a decent regression model was used to
predict the effect of independent variables on the variable fraudulent financial statements. The
significance of 0.000 also shows that at least one of the independent variables affects the
dependent variable (Beasley et al, 2000).
Table 2
OMNIBUS TESTS OF MODEL COEFFICIENTS
Chi-square Df Sig.
Step 83.712 10 0.000
Block 83.712 10 0.000
Model 83.712 10 0.000
Hosmer–Lemeshow Test
The significant value resulting from the Hosmer-Lemeshow test, as shown in Table 3, is
0.487, which shows a significance value of >0.05, meaning H1 is accepted. It can be concluded
with 95% confidence that the logistic regression model used is both capable and appropriate to
explain the data.
Table 3
HOSMER–LEMESHOW TEST
Step Chi-square Df Sig.
1 7.469 8 0.487
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Table 4 shows that a value of 0.841 was obtained from the Nagelkerke R-Squared test. It
is thus concluded that 76.11% of the variance of financial statement fraud can be explained by
using the existing models.
Table 4
MODEL SUMMARY
-2p Log likelihood Cox & Snell R-Squared Nagelkerke R-Squared
1 32.736a 0.631 0.841
a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 20 because maximum iterations had
been reached. The final solution cannot be found.
The percentage of model accuracy in classifying observation in this test was 90.5%, as
can be seen in Table 5. Based on this, from the total of 84 observations, 76 observations could be
accurately classified using the logistic regression model.
Table 5
CLASSIFICATION TABLEa
Step 1 Observed Predicted
FRAUD Percentage Correct
0.00 1.00 97.1
FRAUD 0.00 68 2 57.1
1.00 6 8 90.5
Overall Percentage
a.The cut value is 0.500
Regression Logistic
Table 6 displays the logistic regression test results from the five independent variables as
represented by the 10 proxies used in this study. The test results show that the 4 proxies of
pressure, opportunity, rationalization, and capability have a significance value <0.05. The test
results also show that CEOPOL, representing the arrogance variables, do not significantly affect
financial statement fraud, with a score of 0.998 > 0.05 significance level.
Table 6
VARIABLES IN THE EQUATION
B S.E. Wald Df Sig. Exp(B)
Step 1a ACHANGE 0.969 1.374 0.498 1 0.480 2.636
FINANCE -0.113 0.506 0.050 1 0.823 0.893
FREEC -0.070 0.028 6.280 1 0.012 0.933
IND -5.871 1.950 9.063 1 0.003 0.003
AUDCHANGE 36.760 9927.769 0.000 1 0.997 9222135599328192.0
AUDREPORT -1.149 1.042 1.215 1 0.270 0.317
TACC -5.012 2.331 4.625 1 0.032 0.007
DCHANGE -1.416 1.512 0.877 1 0.349 0.243
DOUBTDISC 3.429 1.708 4.031 1 0.045 30.852
CEOPOL -17.757 7051.009 0.000 1 0.998 0.000
a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: ACHANGE, FINANCE, FREEC, IND, AUDCHANGE,
AUDRPORT, TACC, DCHANGE, DOUBDISC, and CEOPOL.
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DISCUSSION
The logistic regression test result shows that FREEC representing the variable pressure has a
significant effect on financial statement fraud, with a significance of 0.012>0.05. Free cash flow
shows the ability of the company’s internal financing in terms of how well the company can finance
the expansion and operations of its own funds. The negative coefficient of -0.70 is consistent with the
empirical facts on the ground, showing that the better the company’s internal financing capability,
the less the likelihood of financial statement fraud. Companies whose own financing ability of poor
are likely to be highly dependent on external financing. These results are consistent with Skousen
(2008), who states that a greater amount of operating cash flow will reduce the possibility of the
company to be engaged in fraud activities.
IND shows the percentage of the audit committee that is an independent party of the
company significantly affect the occurrence of financial statement fraud with a significance
value of 0.003> 0.05 The result indicates that the smaller the percentage of independent members
of the audit committee, the greater the likelihood of financial statement fraud which shows a
similar result with Abbot, Parker, and Peters (2004). This finding is also supported by Hogan et
al. (2008), who state that weak corporate governance will increase the likelihood of financial
statement fraud. The results of this study are also consistent with those of Beasley (1996), who
outlines a difference in the composition of the company’s audit committee between fraud and
non-fraud companies. In line with this, Beasley (2000) states that the audit committees of fraud-
related companies are less independent than those of non-fraud companies.
The results show that TACC representing for rationalization have a significant effect on
the possibility of financial statement fraud in Indonesia, with a significant value of 0.032<0.05.
total accruals reflect management judgment and estimates of the cash flows of the company to
present the accounting earnings to reflect the economic performance of the company. the better
judgment and estimates made by management in this case will mean the level of discretionary
accruals become smaller while the level of non-discretionary accruals are greater, thus further
minimizing the possibility of financial statement fraud. This is supported by Francis & Krishnan
(1999) stating that the excessive use of discretionary accruals could result in a form of
misleading unqualified audit opinion. Dechow (2011) also found that misstatements in the
financial statements were linked to low earnings quality in the company and a decline in the
financial and non-financial performance of companies.
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This research result indicates that DOUBTDISC as a proxy of the capability variable shows a
significant positive effect (0.045<0.005) on the occurrence of financial statement fraud. This
result is not consistent with the explanation given by Mohamed (2015), who explains that
companies that commit fraud will usually be less likely to make disclosures on their doubtful
accounts. The empirical evidence states that the company will continue to disclose the amount of
doubtful accounts of companies as shown in this study data. However, the company does not
further disclose its ability to collect the doubtful accounts. This can be considered as the ability
of management to cover a company’s inability to collect receivables through the formation of a
doubtful account and then putting through a disclosure.
The result shows that the variable of arrogance as proxied by CEOPOL does not affect the
possibility of financial statement fraud. This is not in line with Crowe (2011), who explains that
the profile of the perpetrators of fraud takes the form of a combination of pressure with
arrogance and greed. Indonesia has been found to not be similar to Malaysia in this regard, as
studied by Hull (2016), who states that a CEO who is also a politician, representing the
arrogance variable, has a significant effect on the occurrence of financial statement fraud. The
data show that CEOs of Indonesian companies with fraud indication during the period 2013-
2015 were not actively involved in political activities and had no involvement as members of any
particular party.
The conclusion of this study is that four of the five factors in the Fraud Pentagon theory,
namely pressure, opportunity, rationalization, and capability, are proven to significantly affect
the occurrence of financial statement fraud in Indonesia. Therefore, the internal auditors, external
auditors, those charged with governance (TCWG) in the companies, investors, and prospective
investors, as well as government, must consider factors such as pressure, opportunity,
rationalization, and capability to measure and weigh the possibilities of fraud within a company’s
financial statements. The internal auditor is an internal party of the company who is expected to
play a significant role in the prevention and detection of fraud external of financial statement
fraud External auditors are also important parties who are expected to detect financial statement
fraud as part of their auditing activities on the fairness of the financial statements. As for other
parties such as TCWG and the government, an understanding of the factors that can lead to
financial statement fraud will be very helpful in their decision-making process.
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