Autonomous, Connected, Electric and Shared Vehicles: Reimagining Transport To Drive Economic Growth
Autonomous, Connected, Electric and Shared Vehicles: Reimagining Transport To Drive Economic Growth
Autonomous, Connected, Electric and Shared Vehicles: Reimagining Transport To Drive Economic Growth
connected,
electric and
shared vehicles
Reimagining transport to drive
economic growth
Contents
Executive Summary
1. Introduction
3. Mobility as a service
4. Electrification
5. Infrastructure
6. Testing
9. Data aggregation
Dr. John
McCarthy
Leader, Intelligent Mobility
David
O’Keeffe
Director, Digital Services
Most of us are familiar with the concept of What if there was an alternative? What if
autonomous and electric vehicles, but fewer technology and the use of driver-assisted
are aware of technologies relating to sharing systems could eliminate 90% of traffic
mobility services and connecting data between collisions by removing human error? That is
vehicles and their environment. Many of these the possibility offered by autonomous vehicles
innovations, known collectively as autonomous, (AVs).
connected, electric and shared (ACES)
technologies, are in early stages of development An AV is a vehicle capable of deciding on and
and commercialisation. taking a course of action, such as steering
or braking, without the need for human
Ahead of the pack are connected and intervention. Different levels of autonomy
autonomous vehicles (CAVs), which are likely to exist, reflecting the technology available on the
become a common feature of Irish roads within market and the mixture of features deployed.
the next decade. As these vehicles have enormous The diagram opposite outlines these levels
implications for our transport system in the and what they mean from a human driver’s
short term, we concentrate in this paper on the perspective. Current technology has matured to
connected and autonomous, rather than electric somewhere between 2.5 and 4.
and shared, aspects of ACES technologies.
AVs are receiving a huge amount of attention
1.1 Autonomous vehicles globally, with both countries and companies
investing billions in delivering infrastructure
90% of all traffic collisions are caused by
and data services to ensure their success.
human error [2]: the vehicle’s driver taking the
Accelerated developments are ongoing and test
wrong decision at the wrong time, resulting
sites are springing up across the globe, from
in disastrous and, all too often, life-ending
the UK to the Netherlands, Scandinavia to New
collisions. These events can have a catastrophic
Zealand and Australia to the US, as companies
impact not just on the individuals involved and
seek real-world environments in which to test
their families but also on the wider community.
the latest versions of these vehicles. Timelines
With up to 190 people killed every year in
associated with AV deployment are varied but a
traffic collisions on the Irish roads, not to
large number of manufacturers are focused on
mention over 5,000 collisions causing injury
delivering vehicles by 2021 [4]. This means that,
and those that go unreported [3], there is a
in under five years’ time, AVs will be coming
huge incentive to eliminate the errors leading
off the production line ready for use on our road
to these events. Coupled to the human cost is
network. Ireland is on the cusp of major change.
the economic impact, where collisions cause
significant delay to the travelling public, create
congestion and tailbacks, and impede the
delivery of goods and services.
The question is whether we as a country are
positioned to take advantage of AVs to manage
our road network more safely and efficiently
than ever before while, at the same time,
delivering superior customer service to the
travelling public.
Level 5
Full driverless automation
mind off
Level 4
Full automation in certain situations without driver
control or intervention mind off
Level 3
Full automation in certain situations without driver
control but with driver intervention if necessary eyes off
Level 2
Driver assistance systems that control speed
eyes on
(acceleration, braking) and steering
Level 1
Driver assistance functions such as
ACC (adaptive cruise control) eyes on
Legislative
Level 0 adjustments
No automated functions eyes on required
safety efficiency
mobility productivity
Figure.2
1 Introduction (Contd.)
ACES technology is moving at different speeds This raises a number of questions around
in different directions, with some technologies issues such as safety, management policy and
evolving and maturing faster than others. As a insurance, and a review of legislation needs to
result, timelines for deployment are difficult to be put in place to make this a safe reality.
ascertain. However, with a date of 2021 being
used by nearly all vehicle manufacturers, it is
clear that the presence of CAVs (Connected and
Autonomous Vehicles) on the Irish road network
is just a few years away.
2014 2018
Hyundai Genesis with Google
ASCC, AEB and LKAS sell their 2020
features. 2016 autonomous 9% of vehicles
Tesla Model S to be vehicle. on the road
Mercedes-Benz S-500
with Intelligent Drive. 90% autonomous. will be Level
2 - Strategy
Analytics.
2026
100% of vehicles sold will be
autonomous - Adam Jones,
Figure.3 Morgan Stanley.
“Across the SFI Research Centres, but particularly in Lero, where we have a strong research focus
on Autonomous and Adaptive Systems, we are seeing a growing demand for research expertise in
the technical challenges related to CAV particularly in relation to the more immediate ‘blended’
autonomous environment that’s likely to exist in the near to medium term as we continue to have
a mix of CAV and non-connected vehicles operating side-by-side on our roads and in our cities.
Ireland’s ultimate success with CAV will depend very much on how quickly we respond to its unique
challenges and opportunities, from both OEM, tier-one suppliers and indigenous Irish companies.”
Joe Gibbs, Autonomous Vehicle Spokesperson, Lero,
Irish Software Research Centre, University of Limerick
2030
Autonomous vehicles will be an
$87bn industry - Lux Research.
2040
75% of traffic will be 2064
autonomous vehicles Driverless vehicles available
- Institute of Electrical worldwide - Dr. Jens
and Electronics Desens, Daimler.
Engineers.
2. Financial Implications and Economic Growth
Job creation
“Ireland has a long heritage and pedigree in technology. It is home to the biggest global tech
companies, a vibrant start up ecosystem and recently ranked Ireland 10th in overall global scientific
research. Companies are developing world class innovations and solutions across industries.
With regards to the emerging global opportunities companies are looking to Ireland for skills and
innovations needed to enable a connected autonomous vehicle future in technologies such as A.I.,
vision processing, machine learning, big data analytics and many more underpinning technologies
needed to enable the CAV evolution.”
Ken Finnegan, Chief Technologist, IDA
There is a misconception that if a country does to develop cutting-edge analytics and tools
not have an existing vehicle manufacturing in the area of CAVs. Dublin, in particular,
capability, then there is little point in developing hosts leading global data companies that are
a position on the testing, use and deployment directly or indirectly involved in the CAV
characteristics of CAVs. However, it is clear that market through research and data management
as automobiles develop into “supercomputers solutions. As such, significant employment
on wheels”, most jobs created around the already exists in the automotive ecosystem,
development of CAVs and the services they beyond that of mere chassis and shell
can deliver will be in data creation and development.
interpretation. This is in addition to the creation
of new markets in providing intelligence and Huge potential exists in this market. The global
experiences to the travelling public. connected car market is expected to grow in the
next five years to over $180bn [11] and this will
Indeed, there is a misstated belief that Ireland be underpinned by the delivery of software and
has no automotive sector at all. It is true hardware services such as eCall, park/motorway
that we have no manufacturing base for the assist, sign detection and entertainment
production of vehicles but it is important to services. Intel suggests that self-driving cars
remember that the vehicle itself is made up of could lead to the creation of another $7 trillion
components, hardware and software that power in economic activity provided by a new wave
its performance and capabilities. of software and hardware solutions for both
the travelling public and the overall knowledge
This is where Ireland has a proven knowledge economy.
base and excellence. In fact, Ireland already has
a track record in the design of key components With over 5,000 companies and several
linked directly to the auto sector, with thousand jobs already in Ireland in the
significant employment already in existence combined digital, ICT and financial services
across a wide geographical base spanning sectors [12], Ireland is ideally positioned to take
Galway, Kildare, Limerick and Cork [10]. a leading role in the creation of new high-end
Additionally, OEM research and development employment opportunities linked both directly
teams exist in the main universities and research and indirectly to the CAV market.
centres across the country, from Waterford to
Belfast, and are growing rapidly as they look
Action needed
Grasping these job opportunities will require the creation of a suitable infrastructure for
backbone development and testing and also the development of high-calibre expertise in
a range of areas, from artificial intelligence to video analytics. “Ireland Plc” is uniquely
positioned to accelerate job creation across a number of related areas, including:
- cybersecurity;
- data centres and management;
- video analytics;
- infotainment;
- autonomy systems (hardware and software);
- communications networks; and
- detection sensors.
Economic impacts linked to CAVs are estimated at anywhere between 1% and 8% of
GDP growth. Linking this growth back into the various sectors involved and using
a variety of growth trajectories[13, 14, 15], from low to ambitious, we estimate that it is
entirely possible that Ireland could create approximately 100,000 new jobs in direct and
indirect services for CAVs by 2030.
“Tyndall National Institute, one of Europe’s leading ICT Research and Innovation centres,
fully supports the need to harness the content of this paper, where the expert building blocks of
Government, Academia and Business ensure that Ireland is part of the Autonomous Connected
Electric and Shared vehicles (ACES) wave of innovation, thus keeping Ireland’s technology
sector at the forefront of innovation.”
Carlo Webster, Senior Strategic Business Development Executive, Tyndall Institute
2. Financial Implications and Economic Growth (Contd.)
MaaS Operator
MaaS Operator
MaaS Operator
MaaS Operator
e-Mobility
Facilitators APIS Enablers
My Data Smart Incentives Smart Payment Real-Time Traffic Infrastructure Rural & Urban
System Management Development
Figure.5
“CAVs will require us to reimagine our approach to building design, use of space and integration of
facilities, including traditional parking requirements. The potential to free up valuable land space
currently used by vehicles in a range of ways such as on street parking, deliveries, multi storey car
parks and suburban driveways is game changing. Certainly, basic long-held principles around the
design of land and building use must evolve with the adoption of EVs, CAVs and Shared services,
and that is an exciting development in the built environment in Ireland.”
Eloise Heron, Director, Murphy Mulhall
Figure.6
Urban landscape Rural landscape
- The urban landscape, where walkers, cyclists - The rural landscape will have to be designed
and pedestrians currently compete and to deliver dynamic, on-demand mobility
fight for space and priority, will have to be solutions that are accessible for all, with wait
approached differently when CAVs begin to times of under 10 minutes for the travelling
fully penetrate the road network. public.
- Integrated mobility solutions linked to safe, - Accessibility to jobs will have to be at the
secure and reliable delivery of goods and foreground of mobility design, matching the
people will form the heartbeat of design on-demand features of CAVs to peak and
as technology allows for shared surfaces, trough demands across the day.
reduced dwell times for vehicles, improved
emissions reductions and significant - Depots of CAVs linked to defined geographic
reductions in street-based furniture currently areas will have to be put in place to allow a
used for managing the transport network. managed service to be defined and delivered.
- Loading bays and parking, both in car Testing of the digital infrastructure, and
parks and on-street, will evolve towards an understanding of the impact on the road
a hub-and-spoke design as vehicles are network and on the efficient, safe and reliable
continuously used and shared across the day. movement of people and goods, is critical in all
Current occupancy levels of car park bays of this.
will be reduced dramatically, which has
revenue implications for cities and private
enterprises. The size of bays themselves will
also change, as vehicles will have improved
parking provision with the driver having
been dropped off before the vehicle parks
itself.
6. Testing
Data is the new gold. It is one of the reasons global companies and service providers are operating
in this market. The data captured through the use of CAVs will drive the creation of revenue-
generating services, such as in-vehicle Netflix, traffic updates, discounted coffee and dynamic
pricing. As such, it is important to break down this data and understand the role the government can
play in job creation, data privacy and revenue generation.
CAVs will receive, and possibly share, huge A CAV is powered by the use of sensors to
volumes of data and information between create a view of the world that requires action
vehicles themselves and between vehicles and and decision. These sensors generate vast
infrastructure (such as traffic lights and road (trillions) levels of data. This data will relate not
pavements). only to the road itself and in-vehicle diagnostics
but also to the user and their personal
requirements.
Public bodies will need to understand:
- what services can be created through the
sharing of data; Public bodies will need to understand:
- what data they can share and receive - how data ownership is interpreted;
between their assets and the private sector - what data between the vehicle and the user/
and what they might want to share; operator is shared/owned;
- what data they have available now and in the - what resiliency needs to be put in place; and
future;
- how data safety requirements are to be put in
- the value of data and its revenue potential; place.
- where the data will be stored; and
- who is responsible for it.
3 | Collision Data
In the world of vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) At present, we lack two key components in the
and vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) delivery of safe and trustworthy data services
communications, data will be exchanged between organisations:
between different organisations. This
communication will take place over a number These are:
of channels, via private sector bodies. This - an independent Data Arbiter with
necessitates the creation of an environment responsibility for Governance
where private bodies share information with
each other based on data that is potentially - a transparent Data Aggregator
sensitive in nature or private and protected by
intellectual property.
Data aggregation
Figure.7
8. Data arbitration and governance
To enable the delivery of data enabled services - Risk – involving the application of an
in a public environment, we must ensure that the appropriate risk management process linked
data itself is fit for purpose and conforms to the to governance and compliance needs to
relevant policy guidelines established by local manage relevant risks. The application of
and government agencies. This data must be these measures will be appropriate to the
continuously checked, managed and governed to impact and probability of each risk.
ensure a consistent and auditable data trail in the
event of an emergency or other scenarios where - Compliance – involving, similar to any
the data flow needs to be established. Checks business and technical infrastructure that
and balances need to be put in place through shares information, adhering to relevant
an independent body to ensure trust for the European and local regulations such as those
travelling public and to safeguard the privacy and on data protection. As with governance,
ownership concerns of the relevant bodies. KPIs can be developed to demonstrate and
track compliance.
A governance framework in the era of ACES
vehicles will contain three important elements. The data arbiter is an important part of this
GRC framework and could be regarded as
- Governance – ensuring that the overall goals having the role to manage the framework. Data
and objectives of traffic management are arbitration is vital to ensure close partnerships
supported by V2V and V2I communications. between rival organisations and to guarantee
These objectives may involve ensuring better that privacy and ownership between companies
traffic flows and congestion management. As is protected.
V2V and V2I communications are a means
to that end, this will help build trust between The function and activity of the data arbiter
the organisations sharing information. role sits as a governance layer above the data
Key performance indicators (KPIs) can aggregator’s technical role in the provision
be developed to help track progress, with of data for V2I and V2X. The role should
improvements in KPIs acting as a trigger for also include technical sublayers to provide
changes to V2V and V2I communications an independent assessment of the quality and
processes. reliability of data being exchanged between
rivals, as well as validating that any such
exchange aligns itself to an agreed set of
guidelines established by the relevant body.
Action needed
The appointment of an independent
data arbiter and governance validation
is necessary to create an intermediary
between public and private entities.
This will help to establish the necessary
transparency around the movement of
data between bodies, as well as helping
to define the required operating model
to facilitate pass-through of ownership
between competing bodies. This is
needed to ensure that, at a minimum,
we deliver solutions for all parts of
society and comply with requirements
such as the General Data Protection
Regulation (GDPR) and other national
and international policies.
9. Data aggregation
Government has an essential role to play in both Therefore, to establish a desired future
facilitating the smooth and safe introduction scenario in which all CAVs provide a defined,
of CAVs onto our roads and helping ensure we minimum level of information both to each
reap the maximum economic benefit from these other and to road operators, it is important that
technologies. We look at some key facets of this government establish a policy on accessibility,
vital groundwork here. interoperability and transparency across the
CAV ecosystem.
Accessibility, interoperability and
transparency Ireland can take a lead here and look to
become a global leader in defining the GRC
CAVs have the potential to engage with requirements for CAVs on the road network.
the environment by sharing data from
infrastructure and other vehicles. There is, Skills network creation
however, no guarantee that this will take place.
Government action is needed to help make this Considering CAVs are likely to be deployed in
a reality. mainstream transport from 2021 onwards, a
huge amount of development and research still
A potential scenario exists in which CAVs needs to be undertaken, from both a policy and a
operate independently of both the local technical standpoint. If Ireland decides to allow
environment and each other. CAVs from one the market to dictate, these jobs will be filled by
manufacturer may communicate only with graduates and employees from countries that are
other CAVS from that manufacturer, and not already investing in the CAV domain.
with rival CAVs on the network. The prospect
of an unstructured future exists in which A job creation opportunity exists now for
CAVs do not share their information with road mobility skills that are transferrable across
network operators and choose instead to share markets due to the common currency of data’s
information only with a private data centre key role. If we fail to identify the skills and
controlled by a commercial third party looking capability already in the Irish marketplace
to add value to customers. This would mean and the market’s requirements, we will lose an
that the road network would not be optimised opportunity to become a centre of high-calibre
and in fact would be stretched even further. excellence in a variety of sectors linked to CAV.
We will have missed the opportunity to adopt As such, we need to invest in secondary and
a “system-wide” approach to the operation of tertiary education linked to a market analysis of
roads, reduction of congestion, improvement of skills growth. At first glance, it appears that a
all journeys, and social and affordable mobility number of roles will be required in the areas of:
for all. - data science;
Should this become a reality, it will mean - artificial intelligence;
that islands of CAVs will exist, operating - cybersecurity;
independently of the needs of the overall - Big Data management;
network and mitigating the value-add in the use - wireless communications;
of such technology.
- cloud hosting; and
- fintech and payments.
Reducing our exposure
CAVs are going to become a reality, whether we like it or not. Therefore, it is far more palatable
to be in a position to control, influence and regulate than to be reactive to developments and
deployments from third parties. It is important to note the following:
The government will The government willl not The government will not
not be involved in the write the software for define the cyber security
design of the hardware CAVs protocols of CAVs
– but it can influence its design – but it can define minimum – but it can define the system’s
for integration with network data sharing requirements. cyber-requirements.
operations.
The government will not The government will not The government will
test each vehicle insure each vehicle not manufacture the
vehicles
– but can create a testing and – but can safeguard the – but can create the conditions
validation environment and insurance mechanisms. for job creation in the hardware
requirements. and software services on which
the CAVs depend.
Figure.8
10. The role of government (Contd.)
Our goal is to create environments where We recently appointed Dr. John McCarthy to
more people can enjoy integrated and seamless lead our Intelligent Mobility capability. Dr.
journeys. To achieve this, Arup works with McCarthy works in the Digital Services team
governments and seeks to influence policy and under David O’Keeffe to provide world-class
strategy on the smart application of intelligent strategic, technical and policy advice to our
transport systems. We work with the private growing client base.
sector to reimagine business models and
identify value through innovative use of data. To support this, we have invested in developing
the team’s skills and capability to provide end-
Our mobility experts fully understand urban to-end advisory services for clients in this field.
transport networks and the challenges facing
authorities who are responsible for managing, These services span:
operating and maintaining the transport system - transport planning;
network that will carry ACES. We are heavily
involved with the intelligent transport industry - CAVs, EVs and MaaS;
around the world and have been appointed to - data analytics, protection and privacy;
provide research and consultancy services for
traffic management technology under national - economic and policy considerations;
frameworks that promote mobility solutions. - ITS, C-ITS, telecommunications networks
Arup recognises, however, that the ability and standards;
to deliver new mobility solutions is not just - network operations and customer behaviour;
linked to the transportation side of the business
but also reaches across other Arup expertise, - business transformation; and
such as planning, design, digital services and - cybersecurity and information security.
customer behaviour. As such, we have been
developing our in-house capability to position
ourselves as the leading consultancy in Ireland
for the provision of expert knowledge in this
area. “Arup recognises that Ireland can play a
leading role in the development and growth of
intelligent mobility. Through the introduction
of disruptive technologies such as ACES, we
see transport is migrating towards a customer-
centric mobility-based solution, and one in
which our core strengths of advisory services,
planning and design can play a fundamental
role. We are delighted to author this paper
rea irming our commitment as a global leader
in engineering consultancy.”
Eoghan Lynch, Managing Director, Arup Ireland Group
12. The Magnificent Seven | What needs to happen next
The world in which we live is changing daily, Over the next five years, CAVs will become
with technology introducing new choices and more mainstream and relevant to our lives. They
options, as well as challenges to existing services will be available to run on our roads, whether
and capabilities. Customer experience will drive we are prepared or not, forcing the question:
the adoption and use of these technologies but what do we need to do now to prepare for their
policy and legislation linked to strategic plans arrival?
for exploiting them must be in place.
This paper has outlined a number of actions, it
ACES technologies offer potential for high- is our opinion that our government should act
calibre job creation and significant economic on these now to reduce our exposure to risk
growth. Although Ireland does not have an when these vehicles arrive and to ensure
automotive manufacturing base, it is still well- alignment ourselves with public demand and
positioned to play a leading role in developing sentiment. To this end, we believe it is of utmost
the technology underpinning ACES vehicles and importance that government do the following:
their operation (spanning hardware, software,
data hosting and analysis).
ONE TWO THREE FOUR
Establish a Develop an Review existing Deliver a
capability map for understanding of the capital projects technology-driven
industries aligned requirements needed underway, assess policy position that
to the CAV sector for cost-effective the implications of protects the needs of
and identify areas of and sustainable projected technology the travelling public
focus and growth as infrastructure, both developments and and encourages
well as gaps in our physical and virtual, user scenarios, and economic growth
skills base. to support the tease out the related and diversity linked
deployment of CAVs. roadmap. to the creation of
a systems-based
approach to CAV
deployment and job
creation.
Figure.9
Glossary Contributors