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    WEEK 44 - November 2 To 5, 2010

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    JC Calaycay
    - The PSEi sustained its 18-month uptrend last week, slipping 0.4% but still gaining 4.1% for the month of October. - Earnings reports from major companies like PLDT, Ayala Land, and Filinvest Land will be released in November and closely watched. - The market will also monitor the October GDP figures and any potential changes to interest rates at the next Monetary Board meeting. - Trading was led by the services sector on the listing of Cebu Pacific shares, reducing the dominance of the industrial sector.

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    WEEK 44 - November 2 To 5, 2010

    Uploaded by

    JC Calaycay
    30 views2 pages
    - The PSEi sustained its 18-month uptrend last week, slipping 0.4% but still gaining 4.1% for the month of October. - Earnings reports from major companies like PLDT, Ayala Land, and Filinvest Land will be released in November and closely watched. - The market will also monitor the October GDP figures and any potential changes to interest rates at the next Monetary Board meeting. - Trading was led by the services sector on the listing of Cebu Pacific shares, reducing the dominance of the industrial sector.

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    WEEK 44_November 2 to 5, 2010

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    - The PSEi sustained its 18-month uptrend last week, slipping 0.4% but still gaining 4.1% for the month of October. - Earnings reports from major companies like PLDT, Ayala Land, and Filinvest Land will be released in November and closely watched. - The market will also monitor the October GDP figures and any potential changes to interest rates at the next Monetary Board meeting. - Trading was led by the services sector on the listing of Cebu Pacific shares, reducing the dominance of the industrial sector.

    Copyright:

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    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    30 views2 pages

    WEEK 44 - November 2 To 5, 2010

    Uploaded by

    JC Calaycay
    - The PSEi sustained its 18-month uptrend last week, slipping 0.4% but still gaining 4.1% for the month of October. - Earnings reports from major companies like PLDT, Ayala Land, and Filinvest Land will be released in November and closely watched. - The market will also monitor the October GDP figures and any potential changes to interest rates at the next Monetary Board meeting. - Trading was led by the services sector on the listing of Cebu Pacific shares, reducing the dominance of the industrial sector.

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    ACCORD CAPITAL EQUITIES CORPORATION

    GF EC-058B East Tower, PSE Center, Exchange Road, Ortigas Center, Pasig City, PHILIPPINES 1605 (632)687-5071 (trunk)
    Outlook for Week 44_November 2 to 5, 2010
    1 of 2

    OUR OUTLOOK:

    MARKETS remain closed on Monday in observance of All Soul's Day. Trades


    resume Tuesday.

    Earnings will be the focal point of trades as the penultimate month of the year
    opens a shortened trading week. Telecom industry leader PLDT (pse: TEL) and
    property firms Ayala Land, Inc (pse: ALI) and Filinvest Lands, Inc (pse: FLI)
    have all scheduled briefings for their nine-month financial and operating
    results in the first two weeks of November. The bulk of the results are expected
    to flood the market by mid-month.

    This will coincide with the Monetary Board's rate setting meeting slated for the
    18th and the release of q3 economic figures on the 25th. While we do not foresee
    any tweak in the policy rates as inflation is not seen to register any dramatic
    changes, the July-to-September GDP will be closely watched. Earlier, NEDA
    Director Geneal Cayetano Paderanga had hinted of a “softer Q3 GDP” after
    the “election-factor” has waned and global recovery remains benign.

    Some of the widely followed techinical measures have dropped from


    overbought territories, despite still elevated index levels. This, to some degree,
    legitimizes the brief, sideways (consolidation) action with a still positive bias as
    the market attempts to build a base at the 4,250-4,270 range.

    REVIEW:

    THE PSEi sustained the validity of its 18-month uptrend following a


    sustained break of the 1,750-2,000 post-bear consolidation band. Such
    break was made in May last year. However, as can be seen from the
    chart above, the movements were mostly range-bound impelled with a
    positive bias.

    Last week, the Main Index slipped -0.4% to 4,268.74, less than 20 points
    under the all-time closing high of 4,286.87 reached at the close of the
    preceding week. The market made two successive and unsuccessful
    attempts to breach the 4,300-mark getting stopped at 4,299 on both
    instances. Yet, despite the retreat, the index still managed gains of 4.1%
    for the full month of October. For this year, the market has moved
    higher in 8-of-10 months. The 4.1% return matches that achieved in the
    months of August and April, all tied as the second best this year after
    September's 15% romp.

    A total of php105.9B worth of shares were turned-over during the month MINING & OIL, FINANCIAL,
    or an average of php5.297B per session, net of block sales. While this is 9.18% 12.71%
    significantly less than September's php128.7B [php6.128B daily
    average], it marks only the second month that the aggregate value
    INDUSTRIAL,
    passed the php100B level. SERVICE, 17.18%
    28.58%
    For the first time, Service counters cornered the bulk of the flow with a
    28.58% share, aided by last week's listing of Cebu Pacific shares. [CEB
    value in the regular market accounted for roughly 13% of the sector's
    total.] As a result, Industrials' piece, consistently the largest, was
    significantly pared down to only 17.18% [On a year-to-date, the sector's
    HOLDING FIRM,
    piece of the value pie has consistently narrowed from its biggest of 40% at 16.25%
    the end of May to just 31.59% at close of trades last week.] Holding
    PROPERTY,
    Firms' portion has steadily, but gradually increased from 16.94% at end- 16.11%

    DISCLAIMER: THE MATERIAL CONTAINED IN THIS PUBLICATION IS FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. IT IS NOT TO BE REPRODUCED OR COPIED OR MADE AVAILABLE TO OTHERS. UNDER NO
    CIRCUMSTANCES IS IT TO BE CONSIDERED AS AN OFFER TO SELL OR A SOLICITATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY. WHILE THE INFORMATION HEREIN IS FROM SOURCES WE BELIEVE RELIABLE, WE DO NOT
    REPRESENT THAT IT IS ACCURATE OR COMPLETE AND IT SHOULD NOT BE RELIED UPON AS SUCH. IN ADDITION, WE SHALL NOT BE RESPONSIBLE FOR AMENDING, CORRECTING OR UPDATING ANY
    INFORMATION OR OPINIONS CONTAINED HEREIN. SOME OF THE VIEWS EXPRESSED IN THIS REPORT ARE NOT NECESSARILY OPINIONS OF ACCORD CAPITAL EQUITIES CORPORATION ON THE CREDIT-
    WORTHINESS OR INVESTMENT PROFILE OF THE COMPANY OR THE INDUSTRIES MENTIONED.
    ACCORD CAPITAL EQUITIES CORPORATION
    GF EC-058B East Tower, PSE Center, Exchange Road, Ortigas Center, Pasig City, PHILIPPINES 1605 (632)687-5071 (trunk)
    Outlook for Week 44_November 2 to 5, 2010
    2 of 2

    April to 18.54%, pushed by October's 16.25%. A similar observation is made for the Property and Mining & Oil sectors, with the latter registering the
    most discernible change from just 5.08% at the end of May to 6.0%. Its average for the months of September and October topped 9.0%.

    Foreign funds continued to flow into local equities with October totals
    further growing the year-to-date net cumulative value to purchases worth
    php56.836B. It was only in the months of July and August that foreign
    1,500,000,000.00
    funds registered a net negative position.
    1,000,000,000.00

    500,000,000.00

    (500,000,000.00)

    IN the just concluded month, 19 of the 32 PSE Index component counters


    registered advances ranging from AEV's 39.3% to ABS and GLO's 1.1%.
    The 13 losers were led by LC & LCB's -28% and -31.5%, respectively. This
    contrasts with the 31-to-1 breadth in the preceding month when only San
    Miguel Corporation's “B” shares fell -9.1%. Among those that advanced
    last month, only six underperformed the Main Index' 4.1% rise.

    The table to the right lists Index stocks' return over a one-year period and
    over the last two months. The list is truncated to inlcude only those issues
    that have outpaced the market's 49.14% one-year gain.

    Five counters have more than doubled their year-ago market values. Ten
    (10) more are added if we consider at least a 50% rise.

    Note however that except for AEV, AP, ICT and MBT, the rest of the list have either continued their advances at a slower pace, or in the cases of SM,
    JFC, ALI, LC/B, have retreated from their levels in the month prior. The PSE Index's 4.1% rise in October, likewise paled in comparison with September's
    15% romp.

    Only two among index counters, GLO and GMA7, posts negative one year returns of -2.17% and -5.64%, respectively.

    Note further that GMA7, together with SMC/B and SECB will be removed from the PSE Index on November 8 th, replaced by FGEN, JGS and DMC. [see
    note on the changes below.]

    MAIN & SECTORAL INDEX CHANGES: (to take effect on November 8, 2010)

    INDEX New Additions Removed


    PSEI DMC, FGEN, JGS GMA7, SMC, SMCB, SECB
    FINANCIAL NRCP
    INDUSTRIAL ACR, RFM, SFI, TA CMT, SMB
    HOLDING FIRMS ANS, FDC, SINO
    PROPERTY LND, MRC, RLT
    SERVICE DFNN, TBGI
    MINING & OIL CPM, ORE, PERC APX, APXB

    DISCLAIMER: THE MATERIAL CONTAINED IN THIS PUBLICATION IS FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. IT IS NOT TO BE REPRODUCED OR COPIED OR MADE AVAILABLE TO OTHERS. UNDER NO
    CIRCUMSTANCES IS IT TO BE CONSIDERED AS AN OFFER TO SELL OR A SOLICITATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY. WHILE THE INFORMATION HEREIN IS FROM SOURCES WE BELIEVE RELIABLE, WE DO NOT
    REPRESENT THAT IT IS ACCURATE OR COMPLETE AND IT SHOULD NOT BE RELIED UPON AS SUCH. IN ADDITION, WE SHALL NOT BE RESPONSIBLE FOR AMENDING, CORRECTING OR UPDATING ANY
    INFORMATION OR OPINIONS CONTAINED HEREIN. SOME OF THE VIEWS EXPRESSED IN THIS REPORT ARE NOT NECESSARILY OPINIONS OF ACCORD CAPITAL EQUITIES CORPORATION ON THE CREDIT-
    WORTHINESS OR INVESTMENT PROFILE OF THE COMPANY OR THE INDUSTRIES MENTIONED.

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