Oil and Gas January 2016
Oil and Gas January 2016
Oil and Gas January 2016
Executive Summary……………….….……...3
Advantage India……………………………...4
Market Overview and Trends……………….6
Porter Five Forces Model…….………........28
Strategies Adopted……………………..…..30
Growth Drivers……………………….……..33
Opportunities…………………… .................41
Success Stories…………………….. ……..44
Useful Information…………………….……48
• In FY15, India had 223.3 MMTPA of provisional refining capacity, making it the second
Second largest refiner largest refiner in Asia an. By 2017, the oil refining capacity of India is expected to rise and
in Asia reach more than 310 million tonnes. Private companies own about 29.31 per cent of total
capacity
• India’s energy demand is expected to double to 1,516 Mtoe by 2035 from 637 Mtoe in
World’s fourth-largest 2014. Moreover, the country’s share in global primary energy consumption is projected to
energy consumer increase two fold by 2035
• In 2014, India consumed 3.85 mbpd oil, while the consumption is estimated to reach 4.0
Fourth-largest
mbpd by FY16, expanding at a CAGR of 3.2 per cent during FY08–16F.
consumer of oil and • As per IEA estimates as on June 2015, India is expected to overtake Japan to become the
petroleum products third largest oil consumer in the world by the end of 2015
• LNG imports accounted for about one-fourth of total gas demand. India's gas demand is
Fourth-largest LNG estimated to be more than double over the next five years
importer in 2015 • India increasingly relies on imported LNG; the country is the fourth-largest LNG importer in
2015 (As of September 2015) and accounted for 5.68 per cent of global imports
Source: US Energy Information Administration (EIA), Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas, TechSci Research
Notes: MMTPA - Million Metric Tonnes Per Annum, Mtoe – Million Tonnes of Oil Equivalent; mbpd – Million Barrels Per Day;
Figures mentioned in this slide is as per latest data available
ADVANTAGE INDIA
JANUARY 2016
OIL & GAS
ADVANTAGE INDIA
Source: Business Monitor International (BMI), World Oil Outlook 2012, Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas, BP Statistical Review 2015, TechSci Research
Notes: mbpd – Million Barrels Per Day, bcm – Billion Cubic Metres, F – Forecast;
Figures mentioned in this slide is as per latest data available
JANUARY 2016 For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org 5
OIL & GAS
JANUARY 2016
OIL & GAS
STATE-OWNED COMPANIES DOMINATE OIL AND GAS IN INDIA
India has become the third-largest energy consumer in 2015
In 2015,oil production in the country reached 0.75 mbpd as compared to 0.76 mbpd in 2014, registering a decline of 0.85 percent. In
2014, country had, 5.7 billion barrels of proven oil reserves
India had 1.4 tcm of gas proved reserves and produced 33.66 bcm of gas in 2015 which is expected to rise and reach 33.73 bcm in
2016
Midstream
Indian Oil and Gas • IOCL operates a 11,214 km network of crude, gas and product pipelines, with
segment –
a capacity of 1.6 mbpd of oil and 10 mmscmd of gas
sector storage and • This is around 30 per cent of the nation’s total pipeline network
transportation
Downstream • IOCL is the largest company, control 10 out of 22 Indian refineries, with a
segment – combined capacity of 1.31 mbpd
• Reliance launched India’s first privately owned refinery in 1999 and gained
refining, considerable market share (30 per cent)
processing and • Essar’s Vadinar refinery has a capacity of 20 mmtpa, currently accounting for
marketing around 10 per cent of total refining capacity
Source: BP Statistical Review 2015, US Energy Information Administration, Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas, TechSci Research
Notes: bcm – Billion Cubic Metres, tcf – Trillion Cubic Feet, mbpd – Million Barrels Per Day, mmscmd - Million Metric Standard Cubic Metre Per Day,
ONGC – Oil & Natural Gas Corporation of India, IOCL – Indian Oil Corporation Ltd
Oil consumption is estimated to expand at a CAGR of 3.3 Oil consumption in India (2008-16)
per cent during FY2008–16F to reach 4.0 mbpd by 2016
4.00
3.73 3.85
Due to the expected strong growth in demand, India’s 3.69
3.49
dependency on oil imports is likely to increase further 3.24 3.32
3.08
In June 2015, total crude oil imports were valued at USD8.7 Imports and domestic oil production in India
billion. In FY14, imports accounted for more than 80 per
cent of the country’s total oil demand
Source: Ministry of Oil & Natural Gas, BMI forecasts, TechSci Research
Notes: F – Forecast, mbpd – Million Barrels Per Day
During 2013-14, 32.56 percent of the natural gas consumed Proven reserves and total gas consumption
in the country was used by the fertilizer industry, and 31.02 in the country (bcm)
percent by the power generation sector
1427
With India developing gas-fired power stations, 1330 1355
1278
consumption is up more than 160 per cent since 1995 1149
1055 1090 1115
Source: PPAC, BP Statistical Review 2015, Ministry of Oil & Natural Gas 2014,
TechSci Research
Notes: F – Forecast, bcm – Billion Cubic Metres,
CAGR – Compound Annual Growth Rate
Figures mentioned in this slide is as per latest data available
India had 1.4 trillion cubic meters of proven natural gas Domestic gas production and imports (bcm)
reserves at the beginning of 2014. Approximately 34 per
cent of total reserves are located onshore, while 66 per cent
are offshore
In 2014-2015, crude oil production was 38.76 million Crude oil production (‘’000” Tonnes)
tonnes. Total crude oil production in FY14 stood at 37.79
million tonnes
ONGC accounted for 60 per cent of total crude oil 5263 9682 10527 11640 12077 11654
production in India 3572 2582 3847 3600
3661 3466
Onshore crude oil production increased at CAGR of 10.1 24855 24420 23716 22611 22246 23510
per cent between FY09-10 and FY14-15 to 19.1 mmt
19637
18203
18421
20063
21255
21869
19585
19441
19126
18027
16429
11821
Total gas production in FY15 was 33.66 bcm Annual gas production
(million metric standard cubic meter per day)
Contribution from Private/JV in crude oil production
increased over the last from FY14 to FY15 to 0.48 million
barrels
21985 26774 21609
Onshore gas production increased between FY08-09 and 14491 9497 10482
FY14-15 to 33 mmscmd 2416 2350 2633 2639 2626 2838
105.4
87.1
24.70
24.30
24.00
23.92
23.80
23.50
Onshore Offshore
During FY15*, 1,352,000 metres of wells were explored and developed in India
During the same period, 637 wells were drilled in the country
State-owned oil companies undertake most of the upstream drilling and exploration work
ONGC, the leader in the upstream segment, accounts for 60 per cent of India’s total crude oil output
658
360
180
369
145 155
61 62
Offshore Onshore Offshore Onshore
India has a network of 9,573 km of crude pipeline having a capacity of 947.04 mmtpa*
In terms of length, IOCL accounts for 46.47 per cent (4,448 km) of India’s crude pipeline network. Moreover, the company
has the country’s longest pipelines: Salaya-Mathura-Panipat Pipeline (1,870 km) and Haldia-Barauni/Paradip-Barauni
Pipeline (1,302 km)
In terms of actual capacities, ONGC leads the pack with a share of 50.5 per cent, followed by IOCL at 27.6 per cent
Shares in crude pipeline network by length Shares in crude pipeline network by capacity
(out of 9,573 km) (FY15) (out of 146631 TMT) (FY15)
16.2%
2623 ONGC
5.7%
IOC
IOC
4448 50.5%
ONGC
OIL
OIL
1193 27.6%
Others
Others
1308
Length (Kms)
Product
6,633 1935 2553 2,032 654 - - 656 14463
Pipeline
820 +488
Crude oil (Onshore
4,448 937 1,017 - 1,193 590 80 9,573
Pipeline and
Offshore)
Total 11,081 2,872 3,570 2,038 1,847 1268 590 1536 24,802
Product
36.16 10.84 23.02 3.83 1.72 - - - 81.94
Pipeline
Crude oil
40.40 6.0 9.0 - 8.40 23.39 8.50 - 102.69
Pipeline
With 14463 km of refined products pipeline network (capacity of 77.41 mmtpa) in India, Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) leads
the segment with more than half of the total length of product pipeline network
Top three companies IOC, HPCL and BPCL contributes 76.90 per cent of the total length of product pipeline network in
2015
In 2015 Gas Authority of India Limited (GAIL) has largest share (87.06 per cent or 2,032 km) of the country’s LPG pipeline
network (2,334 km)
Shares in product pipeline network under Shares in LPG pipeline network by length
operation by length (out of 14463 km, FY15 ) (out of 2,334 km) (FY15)
1.20%
2.5% 2.0%
IOC 11.74%
4.5%
HPCL
13.4% GAIL
GAIL
45.9% BPCL IOC
14.0% OIL
PHMB BPCL
87.06%
17.7% PCCK
State-controlled entities dominate the downstream segment Refinery crude throughput (mmt)
as well
In FY15, the sector’s total installed provisional refinery capacity was 223.3 mmt
In FY15, IOC emerged as the largest domestic refiner with a capacity of 54.2 mmt
Top three companies IOC, HPCL and BPCL contributes around 50 per cent of India's total refining capacity
Shares in India's total refining capacity (FY15) Total installed capacity FY15 (mmt)
IOC
25.20% 78 80
HPCL
38.63%
BPCL
2.24
31.37 2.21
28.08 29.00 2.19
24.85 2.17 2.18
27.69 24.57 2.16
27.72 27.50 2.14
2.13
FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15
IOC owns the maximum number of retail outlets in the 55.52 58.98 57.65 59.30 59.83
52.10
country (45.70 per cent of total), followed by HPCL (24.80 41.85
per cent) and BPCL (24.00 per cent); private firms own the 36.16
remaining
As of April 1, 2015, there were 15,930 LPG distributors in FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15
India
Product Pipeline LPG Pipeline
In 2014, coal accounted for 56.47 per cent of total primary Energy consumption pattern in 2014
energy demand 2.19% 1.23%
4.64%
Energy demand in the Asia-Pacific region is expected to
reach 5,627 Mtoe by 2020 and 6,861 Mtoe by 2035 7.14%
Coal
India’s energy demand is projected to double to 48.7 Oil
quadrillion btu by 2035 Natural Gas
Hydro electric
56.47%
28.33%
Renewables
Nuclear Energy
Over the next few years, dependence on gas, hydro power Consumption pattern expected in 2035
and nuclear power is expected to increase relative to oil and
coal
8% Coal
The government aims to quadruple India’s nuclear power
generation capacity to 20 GW by 2020; currently, seven 11%
Petroleum
nuclear power reactors of 4,930 MWe capacity are under
construction 42%
Solid biomass &
15% waste
In coming decades, a major portion of consumption
dependability of energy mix is expected to shift from coal Natural gas
and petroleum to other resources like natural gas, solid
biomass & waste and nuclear & other renewable sources Nuclear & other
24% renewables
Ownership
FY16* turnover
Company (per cent) as on
(USD billion)
FY14-15
Indian Oil Corporation 68.57 per cent
30.58
Limited state-owned
Global turnover
Ownership
Company (FY16*)
(per cent)
(USD billion)
• Government approved the CBM policy in 1997 to boost the development of clean and
renewable energy resources
Coal Bed Methane
• CBM is an eco-friendly natural gas (methane), which is absorbed in coal and lignite seams
(CBM) • The CBM policy was designed to be liberal and investor friendly; the first commercial
production of CBM was initiated in July 2007 at about 72,000 cubic metres per day
• The technology was first widely used in the US in the 1800s, and in India (Kolkata and
Mumbai) in the early 1900s
Underground Coal • UCG is currently the only feasible technology available to harness energy from deep
Gasification (UCG) unmineable coal seams economically in an eco-friendly manner
• The technology reduces capital outlay, operating costs and output gas expenses by 25–50
per cent vis-à-vis surface gasification
• The government initiated the National Gas Hydrate Programme (NGHP), a consortium of
national E&P companies and research institutions, to map gas hydrates for use as an
Gas hydrates and bio-
alternate source of energy
fuels • Bio-fuels (bio-ethanol and bio-diesel) are alternate sources of energy from domestic
renewable resources; these have lower emissions compared to petroleum or diesel
Open Acreage • The Open Acreage Licensing Policy (OLAP) has been initiated in parallel with NELP to
Licensing Policy increase foreign participation by global E&P companies like Shell, BP, Conoco Phillips etc.
JANUARY 2016
OIL & GAS
PORTER’S FIVE FORCES ANALYSIS
Competitive Rivalry
STRATEGIES ADOPTED
JANUARY 2016
OIL & GAS
STRATEGIES ADOPTED … (1/2)
• Companies in India are currently setting up bases in newer geographies like Africa, and
thereby increasing their global footprints. For example, ONGC Videsh Limited (OVL),
Expansions which is ONGC’s subsidiary, has acquired significant space in Africa
• They are forming JVs and strategic tie ups with foreign companies to increase their
technical know-how and knowledge base
• Oil companies are focusing on vertical integration for next stage of growth. For instance,
oil producer Oil India Ltd is planning to build and operate refineries, while Indian Oil is
Diversification planning to enter oil & gas exploration
• Companies are diversifying into alternative energies such as wind power, solar and bio-
fuels
• Most Indian companies are now targeting shale gas reserves as a source of energy in
Move to non- future
conventional energy
• Companies are looking forward to developing JVs and technical partnership with foreign
resources
companies to improve capabilities to develop shale reserves
• In recent years, major discoveries in the Barmer basin in Rajasthan and the offshore
More focus upon small Krishna-Godavari basin by smaller companies such as the Gujarat State Petroleum
companies Corporation and Andhra Pradesh Gas Infrastructure Corporation hold some potential to
diversify the country’s production
Pilot project Initiated for • Oil and Natural Gas Corp (ONGC) has started Shale Gas exploration by spudding the first
Shale Gas Production in Shale Gas well RNSG-1 in Burdwan District of West Bengal.
India
GROWTH DRIVERS
JANUARY 2016
OIL & GAS
PERSISTENT DOMESTIC DEMAND TO DRIVE THE MARKET
Increasing
Growing demand Policy support Innovation
investments
Expanding
India, fourth-
Supportive FDI production and Petroleum and
largest energy
policies distribution Natural Gas sector
consumer
facilities in India attracted an
Inviting Driving Resulting cumulative FDI of
USD6,619.83
Rise in population million during April
Promoting
and economic Increased R&D
investments in the 2000- September
growth to fuel activity
sector 2015
demand
• Several industries are increasing the usage of natural gas in operations; this has boosted
Increasing demand for natural gas demand in India
natural gas • Some of the main industries that use natural gas are pulp and paper, metals, chemicals,
glass, plastic and food processing
• The nation has large coal, crude oil and natural gas reserves
Abundant raw material • Oil reserves amounted to 763.476 MMT in FY15
• Proved reserves of natural gas stood at 1.48 tcm in FY15
• The government has allowed 100 per cent FDI in E&P projects/companies; and 49 per
cent in refining under the automatic route from the earlier approval route
Favourable policies
• It has also introduced policies to promote investments in the industry such as New
Exploration Licensing Policy (NELP) and Coal Bed Methane (CBM)
• Investments worth USD75 billion is expected across the oil & gas value chain under the
Huge investments erstwhile 12th Plan (2012–17)
• The nation offers abundant skilled labour at much competitive wages compared to other
countries
Skilled labour
• The University of Petroleum and Energy Studies in Dehradun, Uttarakhand, is Asia’s first
and only energy university
Massive gas pipeline • The country’s natural gas pipeline network amounted to over 17,421 km in 2015 and a
network proposed expansion of 30,000 kms is envisaged by 2018-19
• Several domestic companies (such as ONGC, Reliance and Gujarat State Petroleum)
Natural gas discoveries have reportedly found natural gas in deep waters
• This offers significant expansion opportunity over the next decade
Pricing of CNG and • In 2014, the pricing for CNG (transport) and PNG (domestic) were examined by the
PNG by CGD Entities Ministry while the disclose of prices of the CNG and PNG commodities were made
(2014) compulsory
The Policy on Shale • Allows companies to apply for shale gas and oil rights in their petroleum exploration
Gas & Oil, 2013 licenses and petroleum mining leases
Shale Gas & Oil • Approved in September 2013, it allows companies to explore energy resources trapped
Exploration Policy within rocks to meet India’s growing energy needs
The National Biofuel • Promotes bio-fuel usage, the Government of India has provided a 12.36 per cent
Policy, 2009 concession on excise duty on bio-ethanol and exempted bio-diesel from excise duty
Integrated Energy
Policy (IEP), 2006 • Outlines goals to deal with challenges faced by India’s energy sector
Auto Fuel Policy, 2003 • Provide a roadmap to comply with various vehicular emission norms and corresponding
fuel quality upgrading requirements over a period of time
Domestic Natural Gas • New domestic natural gas pricing formula has been formed, which will be revised on an
Pricing Formula, 2014 half yearly basis.
Cumulative FDI inflows in India’s petroleum and natural gas sector stood at USD6.6 billion (2.5 per cent of total FDIs) during
April 2000–September 2015
In Oil & Gas, FDI inflows totalled USD6.6 billion and USD5.5 billion in FY15 and FY14, respectively
Between FY10 and FY16*, FDI inflows into petroleum and natural gas grew at CAGR 16.06 per cent
FDI inflows into petroleum and natural gas FDI inflows into India
(USD billion) (USD billion)
CAGR: CAGR:
16.06% 6.6 6.6 14.83% 248.63 265.26
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 * FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 *
Date announced Acquirer name Target name Value of deal (USD million)
Dec 2015 ONGC Videsh Ltd (OVL) Vankor oil field 1260
Jan 2015 Bharat Forge Mecanique Generale Langroise 12.82
Jun 2014 Gulf Petrochem Ltd Sah Petroleums Limited 7.13
Mar 2014 IOCL Progress Energy Canada Ltd Not disclosed
Oct 2013 ONGC Videsh Ltd Parque das Conchas, Brazilian Oilfield 529
ONGC Videsh Ltd (in partnership
Jun 2013 Rovuma Area 1 Offshore Block 2640
with Oil India Ltd)
Nov 2012 ONGC Videsh ConocoPhillips (Kashagan Field) 5,000.0
Oil and Natural Gas Corp’s exploration block
Nov 2012 Inpex Corp Not disclosed
KG-DWN-2004/6
Sep 2012 ONGC Videsh Hess Corp (Azrei oilfield) 1,000.0
Apr 2012 Trafigura Pte Ltd Nagarjuna Oil Co Ltd 130.0
Apr 2011 Sesa Goa Ltd Calm India Ltd 1,492.0
Feb 2011 BP PLC Reliance Industries Ltd 9,000.0
Aug 2010 BPRL EP413 13.4
Aug 2010 Sesa Goa Ltd Cairn India Ltd 1,180.8
Aug 2010 Vedanta Resources PLC Cairn India Ltd 6,568.5
Aug 2010 Reliance Industries Ltd Marcellus Shale Natural Gas 391.6
OPPORTUNITIES
JANUARY 2016
OIL & GAS
OPPORTUNITIES
• Locating new fields for exploration: 78 • Expansion in the transmission network • India is already a refining hub with 21
per cent of the country’s sedimentary of gas pipelines refineries and expansions planned for
area is yet to be explored tapping foreign investment in export-
• LNG imports have increased oriented infrastructure, including
• Development of unconventional significantly; this provides an product pipelines and export
resources: CBM fields in the deep sea opportunity to boost production terminals
capacity
• Opportunities for secondary/tertiary oil • Development of City Gas Distribution
producing techniques • In light of mounting LNG production, (CGD) networks, which are similar to
huge opportunity lies for LNG terminal Delhi and Mumbai’s CGDs
• Higher demand for skilled labour and operation, engineering, procurement
oilfield services and equipment and construction services • Expansion of the country’s petroleum
product distribution network
• The Cambay, Krishna Godavari, Cauvery, and the Damodar Valley are the most prospective sedimentary basins for carrying out
shale gas activities in the country
• Around 20 tcf of gas has been classified as technically recoverable reserves in the Cambay basin in Gujarat (the largest basin in
the country) spread across 20,000 gross square miles with a prospective area of 1,940 square miles
• It is estimated that the Krishna Godavari (KG) basin encloses a series of organically rich shales, containing around 27 tcf of
technically recoverable gas. KG basin, located in Eastern India, holds the country’s largest shale gas reserves, extending over
7,800 gross square miles with a prospective area of around 4,340 square miles
• In April 2013, the Directorate General of Hydrocarbons (DGH) submitted its policy on exploitation of shale gas to the Ministry of
Petroleum and Natural Gas
• India launched its policy on shale gas exploration to tap the non-conventional energy resource in order to boost output
SUCCESS STORIES
JANUARY 2016
OIL & GAS
ONGC: CONTINUING ON STRONG GROWTH PATH
ONGC revenue growth (USD billion)
30.80 29.80
28.70
25.80 26.39
24.10 22.90
21.50
11.27
• Record
• Recorded ed net
• Reported net profit profit of
net profit of USD4.4 • In the year
of USD3.9 USD4.5 billion in 2015,
• Domest billion in billion in 2014 company
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16*
ic crude 2011 produced
2013
product 25.94
• Highest ion up • Highest- million
reserve tonnes of
accretion
2.1 per ever
crude oil
ONGC’s position in the Indian market
cent dividend
in the last payout of and 23.52
• Registere two bcm of gas • ONGC is the largest upstream oil company
USD1.6
d highest- decades
ever oil 83.5
billion • It accounts for 59.43 per cent of India’s total crude
production million toe oil output and 65.43 per cent of total gas
production (FY15)
In 2015, IOCL was ranked 119 in the Fortune Global 500 list
In 2015, Its network of crude oil and product pipelines runs to about 11081 Km
Subsidiary CPCL accounts for 49 per cent of market share in petroleum products
FY15 FY16*
• Second-largest player in
India’s petrochemical market Turnover USD73.57 billion USD30.58 billion
Reliance Industries has the biggest petrochemical refining complex in the world
The company was ranked 158th in the Fortune Global 500 list 2015
It contributes 14 per cent to India's exports and is going to invest around USD30 billion to improve its businesses in the next
three years
FY15 FY16*
• Reliance Industries has entered into JVs with various companies across segments to align growth opportunities; it signed JVs
with Atlas, Pioneer, Carrizo SIBUR, and D.E. Shaw as well as entered into a strategic alliance with BP recently
USEFUL INFORMATION
JANUARY 2016
OIL & GAS
INDUSTRY ASSOCIATIONS
USD: US Dollar
Wherever applicable, numbers have been rounded off to the nearest whole number
Year INR equivalent of one USD Year INR equivalent of one USD
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