Final Project Report

Introduction
Before beginning my research, my class was asked to try and find how climate change has affected bird
migration. However, rather than focus on only one bird, I chose to see whether or climate change has
affected multiple birds in similar ways. The three birds I chose were the Black and White Warbler, the
Scarlet Tanager and the Acadian Flycatcher. These birds all live in similar locations, winter in Central
and/or South America, and consume relatively the same diet of insects.
Methods
I decided to check eBird’s migration data for these birds’ sightings in North Carolina. To get an idea
about recent data, I decided to use information from the past forty years. Because eBird does not show
individual data for time periods for more than five years, I looked at each decade in five-year time spans
(1979-1983, 1989-1993, 1999-2003, 2009-2013) and compiled the data. I then found the average week of
arrival for each of these spans of years and check to see if there was a shift. Two of the three species had a
shift. That then left me with the question of what caused the two species to shift and the other to not. I
first checked to see if there was a change in temperature. Considering that the birds are migrating to North
America, I checked to see if the temperature changed there along the same time period that the migration
patterns shifted on NOAA’s climate at a glance. After that, I checked into the ranges of the birds on the
Cornell Lab of Ornithology’s All About Birds.
Results and Conclusions

For migrating species, Black and White Warblers, Scarlet Tanagers, and Acadian Flycatchers, steadily
rising temperatures over the past 40 years along their normal migratory routes have led to the earlier
spring arrival in North Carolina. In the past forty years, the week with the highest frequency of arrival in
North Carolina during the spring migration season has shifted to arriving a week earlier in both the Black
and White Warbler and the Scarlet Tanager. However, the Acadian Flycatcher has held since 1979.
The Black and White Warbler’s Black and White Warbler
migration patterns shifted from Average Week w/Highest
arriving in the highest frequency Years Frequency in Sightings in
in the week of May 8th to the week Spring Migration
of May 1st. 1979-1983 Not enough data to conclude
1989-1993 May 8
1999-2003 May 1
2009-2013 May 1
The Scarlet Tanager’s migration Scarlet Tanager

patterns also shifted from arriving Average Week w/Highest
in the highest frequency in the Years Frequency in Sightings in
week of May 8th to the week of Spring Migration
May 1st. 1979-1983 Not enough data to conclude
1989-1993 May 8
1999-2003 May 8
2009-2013 May 1
Acadian Flycatcher
Things are different for the Average Week w/Highest
Acadian Flycatcher, however. Years Frequency in Sightings in
Their week with the highest Spring Migration
average frequency of arrival has 1979-1983 Not enough data to conclude
remained at May 8th for the past 1989-1993 May 8
forty years. 1999-2003 May 8
2009-2013 May 8
North American Temp.

Over the past forty years, the
Average Temperature Difference
average North American
Years from North American Average
temperature difference from the
Temperature
historical average has grown.
1979-1983 + 0.108 C
From 1979-1993, the increase 1989-1993 + 0.226 C
wasn’t very different nor was it 1999-2003 + 0.908 C
very high above the historical 2009-2013 + 0.924 C
average. However, in 1999-2013,
it spiked to almost an entire degree Celsius above the average. This jump coincides with the shift in the
Black and White Warbler and the Scarlet Tanager. With this information, it seems obvious that it has
been this jump in temperature that has changed their migration patterns. It was then that the range maps
come into the picture to explain why the Acadian Flycatcher did not also change it’s pattern.
The left and the middle range maps belong to the Black and White Warbler and the Scarlet Tanager
respectively. As you can see, North Carolina is in the beginning of their breeding locations. However, the
last map belongs to the Acadian Flycatcher. North Carolina is around the middle of it’s breeding
locations. This leads me to believe that the Black and White Warbler and the Scarlet Tanager’s patterns
have been visibly affected in North Carolina because it is one of the first places they would arrive if
migration started sooner. However, if the Acadian Flycatcher started to migrate sooner, it would be seen
in states closer to the Gulf of Mexico. I would recommend additional study be done to see if there was
earlier arrival in one of those states to see if it was also affected.
Works Cited
Audubon. Acadian Flycatcher. n.d. 20 May 2019.
Michael C. Allen, Megan M. Napoli, James Sheehan, Terry L. Master, Peter Pyle, Donald R. Whitehead,
and Terry Taylor. Acadian Flycatcher. 10 November 2017. 20 May 2019.
The Cornell Lab of Ornithology. Acadian Flycatcher. n.d. 20 May 2019.
—. Black and White Warbler. n.d. 20 May 2019.
—. Scarlet Tanager. n.d. 20 May 2019.
The Cornell Lab. The Basics of Bird Migration: How, Why, and Where. 1 January 2007. 20 May 2019.
NOAA National Centers for Environmental information, Climate at a Glance: Global Time Series,
published May 2019, retrieved on May 25, 2019 from https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/

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Final Project Report

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Introduction

Results and Conclusions

The Scarlet Tanager’s migration Scarlet Tanager

North American Temp.

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