Australian Disaster Resilience

Handbook Collection

This manual is no longer current. It

has been replaced by Handbook 10.
This manual will not be reviewed and
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should be used for historical
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reference only.
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For further information please refer

to knowledge.aidr.org.au
Emergency Management Australia

EMERGENCY RISK MANAGEMENT

APPLICATIONS GUIDE
Manual 5

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 AUSTRALIAN EMERGENCY
MANUALS SERIES

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EMERGENCY RISK MANAGEMENT
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APPLICATIONS GUIDE
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Manual 5
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Emergency Management Australia

 © Commonwealth of Australia 2004

First published 2000

Second edition published 2004

ISBN: 0 975 0474 7 7

Published by Emergency Management Australia

Copyright
Permission to use the document and related graphics is granted provided that (1) the below copyright
notice appears in all copies and that both the copyright notice and this permission notice appear, and (2)
use of document and related graphics is for educational, informational and non-commercial or personal
use only.

In all cases the Commonwealth of Australia must be acknowledged as the source when reproducing or
quoting any part of this publication. Examples and quotations from other sources have been attributed to
the original publication whenever possible and are believed to fall within fair use provisions, but these
portions retain their copyright protection and must not be used without attribution.

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Enquiries related to copyright should be addressed to:

The Director General

Emergency Management Australia
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P0 BOX 1020
Dickson ACT 2602

Or telephone (02) 6256 4600 or fax (02) 6256 4653 or email ema@ema.gov.au
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Any rights not expressly granted herein are reserved.

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Disclaimer
This publication is presented by Emergency Management Australia for the purpose of disseminating
emergency management information free of charge. Emergency Management Australia in consultation
with emergency management professionals and subject matter experts exercises care in the compilation
and drafting of this publication however, the document and related graphics could include technical
inaccuracies or typographical errors and the information provided may not be appropriate to all situations.
In no event shall the Commonwealth of Australia (acting through Emergency Management Australia) be
liable for any damages whatsoever, whether in an action of contract, negligence or other tortious action,
arising out of or in connection with the use of or reliance on any of the information presented in this
publication. Emergency Management Australia periodically updates the information in this publication.
Before using this publication please check to ensure that this edition is the most recent and updated
version of the publication.

Intellectual Property Statement

In contributing to the development of this manual it is acknowledged that no ongoing rights to the
information are retained by individual contributors. The information contained within this manual is not
owned by individuals or State /Territory organisations but is held in trust by the Commonwealth on behalf
of the Australian community. The information contained within this manual is current as at November 2004.

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The Australian Emergency Manual Series
The first publication in the original AEM Series of mainly skills reference manuals was produced in 1989.
In August 1996, on advice from the National Emergency Management Principles and Practice Advisory
Group, EMA agreed to expand the AEM Series to include a more comprehensive range of emergency
management principles and practice reference publications.

The Australian Emergency Manual Series has been developed to assist in the management and delivery
of support services in a disaster context. It comprises principles, strategies and actions, compiled by
practitioners with management and service delivery experience in a range of disaster events. The series
has been developed by a national consultative committee, representing a range of State and Territory
agencies involved in the delivery of support services and sponsored by Emergency Management Australia
(EMA).

The manuals are available in full text on the EMA website at http://www.ema.gov.au under Publications.
Limited print copies are distributed to state and territory emergency management organisations,
community organisations and relevant government agencies. These manuals are also available free of
charge on CD. Please send requests to ema@ema.gov.au.

The emergency services skills series (skills and training management topics) are issued as training guides
to state agencies through each state and territory emergency service.

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Australian Emergency Manual Series Structure and Content
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Australian Emergency Management Arrangements Manual 2

Australian Emergency Management Glossary Manual 3
Australian Emergency Management Terms Thesaurus Manual 4
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Community and Personal Support Services Manual 18

Community Development in Recovery from Disaster Manual 29
Community Emergency Planning Manual 15
Disaster Loss Assessment Guidelines Manual 27
Disaster Medicine Manual 9
Economic and Financial Aspects of Disaster Recovery Manual 28
Emergency Catering Manual 8
Emergency Management Concepts and Principles Manual 1
Emergency Management Planning for Floods Affected by Dams Manual 23

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 Emergency Risk Management - Applications Guide Manual 5
Emergency Planning Manual 43
Evacuation Planning Manual 11
Flood Preparedness Manual 20
Flood Response Manual 22
Flood Warning Manual 21
Guidelines for Psychological Services: Emergency Managers Guide Manual 25
Guidelines for Psychological Services: Mental Health Practitioners Guide Manual 26
Health Aspects of Chemical, Biological and Radiological Hazards Manual 13
Implementing Emergency Risk Management - A facilitators guide
to working with committees and communities Manual 6
Managing the Floodplain Manual 19
Multi-Agency Incident Management Manual 17
Planning Safer Communities - Land use Planning for Natural Hazards Manual 7
Post Disaster Survey and Assessment Manual 14
Recovery Manual 10
Reducing the Community Impact of Landslides Manual 24
Safe and Healthy Mass Gatherings Manual 12

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Urban Search and Rescue - Capability Guidelines for Structural Collapse Manual 16
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Emergency Services Skills Series

Communications Manual 38
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Flood Rescue Boat Operation Manual 39

Four-Wheel-Drive Vehicle Operation Manual 37
General Rescue Manual 35
Land Search Operations Manual 33
Managing Exercises Manual 42
Map Reading and Navigation Manual 36
Operations Centre Management Manual 31
Road Accident Rescue Manual 34
Small Group Training Management Manual 41
Storm Damage Operations Manual 30
Vertical Rescue Manual 40

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FOREWORD
The Emergency Risk Management - Applications Guide was first published in 2000 to provide a
comprehensive explanation about how emergency risk management (ERM) can be applied, mainly at the
community level.

This revised Guide is timely as it follows publication of the 2004 Risk Management Standard AS/NZS
4360, on which ERM is based, and includes the growing body of experience in the application of ERM.

The Guide also includes feedback from the emergency management community around Australia.
Examples from the field include risk evaluation criteria and risk register databases, the benefits of using
the process, justifying the relationships between sources of risk and elements at risk, documentation
processes, the customisation of consequence and likelihood tables (and even of the risk level matrix!), and
tools to maintain and facilitate the ‘monitor and review’ process - such as unique identifier numbers.

In 2000 the ERM process was in its infancy and therefore the Guide was theoretically based. Now ERM is
a proven and accepted process, this revision has a user-friendly structure and reflects the latest in
emergency management thinking and practice.

This Guide is a living document which Emergency Management Australia (EMA) believes will further
enhance implementation of ERM across the emergency management environment. In revising the guide,
EMA is also conscious of increasing community and business interests in risk assessment and treatment

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options including critical aspects of business continuity.
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The Guide can be downloaded from EMA’s web site http://www.ema.gov.au.
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David Templeman

Director General
Emergency Management Australia

December 2004

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CONTENTS

Acknowledgements viii

Foreword v

1. Introduction 1
1.1 What is emergency management? 1
1.2 What is emergency risk management? 1
1.3 History of the ERM concept 2
1.4 Who participates in the ERM process? 4
1.5 What training is needed? 5
1.6 Why is a committee needed? 6
1.7 What are the benefits of ERM? 7
1.8 What are the challenges of ERM? 7
1.9 How is ERM planned and managed? 8

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1.10 About this applications guide 9

2. Overview of the ERM process

2.1 The enabling activities
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2.2 The major activities 12
2.3 Documentation 13
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3. The ERM process activities 15

3.1 Communicate and consult 15
3.2 Monitor and review 18
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3.3 Establish the context 20

3.4 Identify risks 27
3.5 Analyse risks 32
3.6 Evaluate risks 36
3.7 Treat risks 38

4. Emergency risk management tools 46

4.1 The unique identifier system 46
4.2 Risk register database 46
4.3 Geographic Information Systems 47

Appendix A: Glossary 48
Appendix B: Generic community sources of risk 50
Appendix C: Generic elements at risk 51
Appendix D: Consequence scale 52
Appendix E: Likelihood scale 53
Appendix F: Risk level matrix 54
Appendix G: Example of a risk register 55

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 Acknowledgements

Joint Technical Committee OB-007 - Risk Management

This document is based on the AS/NZS Standard 4360:2004 Risk management. Joint Technical
Committee OB-00-Risk Management has reviewed this second edition of the Emergency Risk
Management Applications Guide and endorses it as an appropriate derivation of AS/NZS 4360.

The following interests are represented on this committee:

Association of Risk and Insurance Managers of Australasia
Australian Computer Society
Australian Customs Service (Commonwealth)
Australian Institute of Risk Management
CSIRO Atmospheric Research
Department of Defence (Australia)

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Emergency Management Australia
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Environmental Risk Management Authority New Zealand
Institute of Chartered Accountants in Australia
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Institution of Engineers Australia
Institution of Professional Engineers New Zealand
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Insurance Institute of New Zealand

Massey University
Minerals Council of Australia
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Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry New Zealand

Ministry of Economic Development (New Zealand)
NSW Treasury Managed Fund
New Zealand Society for Risk Management
Safety Institute of Australia
Securities Institute of Australia
University of New South Wales
Victorian WorkCover Authority
Water Services Association of Australia

Additional information contained in this document has been adapted from a number of state/territory
documents on emergency risk management and emergency risk management projects.
This document was developed under the guidance of a steering committee.

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1. Introduction

1.1 What is emergency management?

The emergency management function incorporates a wide range of measures to manage risks to
communities and the environment. These measures may be implemented across Commonwealth,
state/territory and local government through legislation, regulation or education. They cover fields as
diverse as state and local government legislation, community development, emergency response, urban
development and land use management and community recovery.

Emergency management addresses the potential occurrence of major emergency situations requiring a
whole-of-government approach: events such as floods, bushfires, cyclones, the consequences of acts of
terrorism or the release of hazardous materials. These situations are usually characterised by the scope of
their impact being community-wide, with medium- to long-term effects. Because they do not occur very
often there is frequently a lack of social preparedness.

Although minor and routine events, such as drink-driving, substance abuse and domestic violence, also
threaten public safety, they do not fall within the scope of emergency management.

Emergency management aims to strengthen communities to make them safe, sustainable and

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resilient, helping them to avoid emergencies or minimise and recover from their effects.
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1.2 What is emergency risk management?

Emergency risk management (ERM) is a process which involves dealing with risks to the community aris-
ing from emergency events. It is a systematic method for identifying, analysing, evaluating and treating
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emergency risks. Risk treatments include prevention and preparedness as well as provision for response
and recovery should an emergency event occur. Local government is a key stakeholder in the ERM
process because it is usually the first level of support for communities in emergencies.

The ERM process can improve outcomes by:

• establishing a decision-making process
• focusing on the opportunities to reduce or manage the risk-rather than on the
response to emergencies that may result from the risk
• engaging a wide range of individuals and communities
• promoting partnerships and enhancement of relationships
• fostering resource sharing and mutual aid arrangements
• providing auditable and credible means of reducing risk
• using a language that is common to decision-making in both the public
and private sectors.

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 The model that underpins the process (outlined in detail in the next section of this publication) is based on
the Australian/New Zealand Standard AS/NZS 4360: 2004 Risk management. It incorporates an iterative
process with well-defined activities, leading to implementation of effective risk-treatment strategies.

The five major activities of the process: establishing context, identifying risks, analysing risks, evaluating
risks and treating risks are supported by two enabling activities - communicating and consulting, and
monitoring and reviewing-which apply to each of the major activities of the process, ensuring relevance of
outcomes and decisions. In addition, documentation occurs throughout the process.

1.3 History of the ERM concept

In 1995 a risk management standard was developed by Standards Australia and Standards New Zealand:
AS/NZS 4360:1995 Risk management. It emphasised the management of risk rather than the
management of hazards.

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Risk management involves managing to achieve an appropriate balance
between realising opportunities for gains while minimising losses. It is an
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integral part of good management practice and an essential element of good
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corporate governance. It is an iterative process consisting of steps that, when
undertaken in sequence, enable continuous improvement in decision-making
and facilitate continuous improvement in performance.
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piii Standards Australia and Standards New Zealand: AS/NZS 4360:2004

Risk management
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This approach was then applied to community emergency management, focusing on reducing risk by
modifying aspects of the source of risk, the community or the environment. It encouraged development of
strategies relating to prevention and mitigation of emergencies -reducing and managing the risks - rather
than being solely concerned with enhancing response capability (and the associated need to increase
resources and budgets).

In the late 1990s the states and territories recognised the benefits of the ERM approach. As a result, the
Emergency risk management application guide was developed in 2000.

This publication (2004) is a revised and updated version of the guide. It has been developed in response
to changes to the AS/NZS Standard, feedback on implementation of the process, and the focus on risk
assessment in the Council of Australian Governments’ 2004 report Natural disasters in Australia-
reforming mitigation, relief and recovery arrangements.

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Tasmanian Emergency Management Policy No.3

Emergency Risk Management

Originally issued 7 September 1999

Revised 21 October 2003

Aim
The aim of this policy is to provide guidance and direction on key responsibilities for a consistent
approach to the management of major risks that impact, or are likely to impact, upon public safety
in Tasmania.

Authority
This policy is authorised by the State Disaster Committee under the provisions of the Emergency
Services Act 1976.

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Background
In 1995, Standards Australia and Standards New Zealand published AS/NZS 4360 Risk manage-
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ment...
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Responsibilities
Application of the emergency risk management process to major risks will occur at the local,
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regional or State level...

Then follows the responsibilities of:

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• Municipal Emergency Management Committees;

• Region Disaster Planning Groups;
• State Disaster Committee;
• Local Government organisations, etc.;
• Regional Industry groups, etc.; and
• State Government organisations, etc.

Natural Disaster Relief and Mitigation Arrangements

Includes Natural Disaster Relief Arrangements (NDRA) and Disaster Mitigation Australia Package
(DMAP) information.

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 1.4 Who participates in the ERM process?

Traditionally, emergency services personnel were involved in emergency management activities, with little
community involvement. The ERM process seeks to ensure community values are reflected in emergency
management. Risk management is complex and it is important to involve a wide range of people includ-
ing community representatives, local government officers and officials, emergency services personnel, and
representatives from other stakeholder groups, who work together to understand how a hazard or source
of risk can affect them and their environment, and how this risk can be reduced.

Communities are complex: they can be a group of people linked together by a shared location, experience
or function. People may belong to more than one group.

Examples of communities:

• people living in a neighbourhood

• residents of a city council area
• people working in the same area or organisation
• a school’s parents, teachers and students
• river users-commercial, recreational, scientific researchers
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Within a group there may be a range of opinions and views. This means that a broad cross-section of
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stakeholder views should be represented in the ERM process. Their understandings of risks and benefits,
together with underlying reasoning, should be identified and documented, so that an unbiased and holis-
tic view is achieved.
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Where appropriate, local emergency management committees may be used as the basis of an ERM com-
mittee or consultative group. A representative of the organisation or department responsible for treating
the risk (the “risk owner”) should also be involved so that they can understand the rationale for decisions
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about necessary actions.

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Examples of stakeholders in emergency risk management

Tasmanian Emergency Risk Management Project

• community representatives
• local government officers/officials
• emergency management officers
• state government representatives
• police officers
• welfare representatives
• fire service officers
• risk owners/managers
• ambulance service officers
• technical specialists
• utility operators
• industry association representatives
• port operators

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• tourism operators
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1.5 What training is needed?

Stakeholder group representatives will need training to ensure an effective and productive ERM process.
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Facilitators should have skills in leading and influencing groups as well as a thorough understanding of
emergency risk management, and participants should be provided with sufficient information so that they
can contribute fully.
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Emergency Risk Management Training

...in any future emergency risk management projects, consideration should be given
to incorporating emergency risk management training for the principal operatives early in the
project or delaying the project to enable early training.

(adapted from the first of the Future Process Recommendations arising from the Emergency Risk
Management Project conducted by the Bunbury Wellington Group of Councils, WA)

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 Example of training stakeholder groups: Tasmania

A comprehensive education and training program is to be prepared by the SES State Education and
Training Officer. This program is to be developed in consultation with the Emergency Management
Australia Institute (EMAI), the Executive Officer to the State Disaster Committee and the Executive Officers
of the Region Disaster Planning Groups. The program is to take account of the training needs of all
stakeholder groups, including:
• State Government Department Heads;
• Local Government Mayors and General Managers;
• Region Disaster Planning Group members;
• specific regional working groups, if formed;
• Municipal Emergency Management Planning Committees; and
• key industry groups and Statewide organisations.

In addition to the above, the program is to take account of the following issues:
• training and development needs associated with the project, including consultancies;
• the number of Introduction to Emergency Risk Management workshops and briefing
ses sions required within Tasmania;
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courses at the EMAI;
Regional Project Plans; and
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the number of personnel required to attend interstate emergency risk management
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• ongoing education and training requirements during and upon completion of the project.
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1.6 Why is a committee needed?

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The establishment of an ERM committee or consultative group is required for the following reasons:
• members can reflect a broad range of perspectives
• members can rapidly and efficiently gather diverse information
• the input of subject experts is required, as no single person is expert in everything
• emergency risk management is more likely to be taken seriously if there is commitment
from all relevant players.

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1.7 What are the benefits of ERM?

Typical benefits of using the ERM process are that it provides opportunities for:
• community commitment to managing risk
• a focus on risk rather than hazard
• an improved understanding of risks and the benefits of risk reduction activities
• a focus on prevention rather than response
• a reduction in the levels of risk to a community
• a reduction in the cost from the impact of emergencies
• better positioning for Australian Government financial assistance
• minimisation of impact of litigation
• improved decision-making about risks and allocation of resources
• improved knowledge of risk assessment across government, the emergency management
industry and communities
• informed emergency planning.

1.8 What are the challenges of ERM? e d

Before starting the ERM process, there should be commitment at the highest possible level, particularly
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where whole-of-community or whole-of-government support is required. All participants should have a
well-developed understanding of national, state/territory and local legislation and organisational policies
which will impact on the process.
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These policies may include:

• the authority to conduct ERM
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• resourcing of ERM
• the standards for, or key focus of, the application of ERM
• information inputs to the ERM process
• the level of documentation required throughout the ERM process
• the support and expertise available to assist those responsible for
managing risks
• the frequency of reviewing risk treatment progress.

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 1.9 How is ERM planned and managed?

Like any project such as building a house or organising a conference, emergency risk management must
be carefully planned and managed. Preparing a project management plan for the ERM process will help to
make the process easier so that people will continue to actively participate.

This plan should include:

• project definition (aim, objectives, scope and authority, stakeholders, ERM training,
relationship of the project to other projects)
• project planning (tasks, responsibilities, timetable, resources, performance indicators)
• project implementation (communication, consultation, performance, monitoring
and review).

So that the progress of the project can be easily monitored, completion dates for key steps, or milestones,
should be established at the project planning stage. Performance indicators should also be established at
this stage, so that success of the project in meeting its aims and objectives can be evaluated. These
indicators should measure effectiveness of the project, efficiency and success of the project, timeliness in
achieving the outcomes, and cost effectiveness of treatment strategies.

It is also important that the aim and objectives in the project plan provide guidance on the nature and extent

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of the project, and describe the envisaged outcomes.
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Examples of aims and objectives

Tasmanian Emergency Risk Management Project

Aim
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To utilise the Emergency Risk Management Guidelines to produce a risk assessment and risk treat-
ment/mitigation study of risks arising from natural and technological hazards, for the three regions of
Tasmania, based on community input. (adaptation)

Objectives

• gain a whole-of-community commitment to the project;

• conduct an assessment of major risks within Tasmania at regional level;
• allocate risk treatment strategies to appropriate organisations;
• promote risk management as a process of community development and organisational
management; and
• monitor implementation of the risk treatment strategies.

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 Emergency Risk Management Project undertaken by the Shire of Irwin, WA

Purpose

The Shire of Irwin is working to create a safer Community in conjunction with the Community, Emergency
Services and other stakeholders to create a holistic Community Risk Based Emergency Management Plan,
which addresses risks that may affect the Community, property and the environment.

Objective
The objective of the project will be to create a safer Community by identifying, analysing, evaluating risks
and recommending treatment options based on Emergency Management Australia’s Emergency Risk
Management Applications Guide.

1.10 About this applications guide

What is its purpose?

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The purpose is to provide a generic overview of the ERM process.

Because a wide range of communities and contexts exist in Australia, these guidelines should be adapted
for the specific circumstances in which they are used. A situation which has very significant effects on one
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community may be adequately dealt with by another. Also, values can vary between and within
communities. Protection and preservation of life, property and the environment are held in high regard by
most communities, but other less tangible elements valued by the community, such as social networks,
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continuity of essential services, community wellbeing and quality of life, may also be considered to be
highly significant.

The generic nature of these guidelines allows them to be customised or adapted as required. Their use
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may also be complemented by:

• the facilitator’s guide Implementing emergency risk management (Emergency Management
Australia 2001).
• the Critical infrastructure emergency risk management and assurance handbook.
(Emergency Management Australia. 2nd edn. 2004)
• the Standard AS/NZS 4360:2004 Risk management and companion volume Risk
management guidelines HB436:2004.

States and territories are encouraged to develop supporting materials based on this publication,
containing case studies and other relevant tools suited to their jurisdictions.

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 Who are they for?

These guidelines are for the use of people in communities and in government organisations (at local,
regional/district, state/territory and Australian Government levels) who are involved emergency risk
management. Note that a glossary is included as an appendix to this publication, as terminology use may
differ between fields and organisations.

What is their scope?

The scope of these ERM guidelines encompasses major risks to community safety that require whole-of-
community or multi-organisational attention.

An essential activity in the ERM process is to clearly specify the scale and scope of the risks being
considered, as well as any constraints or limitations relating to the process or outcomes. This scope must
then be incorporated into the establish context phase, which will drive all elements of the ERM process.

Examples of emergency risk management scoping

Tasmanian Emergency Risk Management Project

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The project scope includes all major risks to the community resulting from natural and technological
disasters across all 29 municipal areas of Tasmania, (with major risks defined as risks to public safety that
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may cause emergencies/disasters and that require multi-organisational or whole of community attention).
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Victoria’s Community Emergency Risk Management Workbook
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The terms of reference for the Municipal Emergency Management Planning Committee are to identify and
consider treatments for risks that have the potential to become emergencies that:
• require action of more than one agency; and/or
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• threaten the people, property and the environment; and/or

• have the potential to be protracted or to escalate so as to seriously affect the community.

Shire of Irwin, WA Emergency Risk Management Projects

The Shire of Irwin recognises that the risk based emergency management planning process may lead to
suggested risk treatments that may affect or be an effect of social, political, economic and environmental
aspects of the Community and that risk treatment recommendations may be affected by the reality
of political and financial constraints.

Although these emergency risk management guidelines have been developed primarily for communities,
they can readily be modified to address risks impacting organisations and the environment, where ERM
approaches are appropriate. The Critical infrastructure emergency risk management and assurance hand-
book, which complements this publication, shows application of ERM within organisations. Risks which are
not considered suitable for ERM approaches should be dealt with using standard procedures or Standard
AS/NZS 4360:2004 Risk management.

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Two
Overview of the ERM process

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 2. Overview of the ERM process

2.1 The enabling activities

These are:
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Two important enabling activities underpin the major activities.
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Communicate and consult
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Monitor and review

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2.2 The major activities

The five major activities in the ERM process are:

Establish the context

Identify risks

Analyse risks

Evaluate risks

Treat risks

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2.3 Documentation
In addition to these activities is documentation which should take place throughout the ERM process.

Because the views of stakeholders can significantly influence decisions, it is important to record
discussions and deliberations and integrate them into the decision-making process. For a decision to be
successfully implemented, the process outcomes should engender ownership and commitment from all
parties.

As well as providing an “audit trail”, documentation can also show evidence of a systematic approach to
ERM, demonstrating to stakeholders that the process has been conducted properly. Documentation is also
important in the review of process and treatment plans, especially if circumstances change. Even when
there is a decision that risks do not require treatment, the reasoning should be documented.

Arrangements for documentation throughout the ERM process should be clearly recorded in writing. All
aspects of the ERM process should be recorded. Assumptions, methods, data sources, analyses, results
and reasons for decisions should all be documented in minutes, progress reports and final reports, or
through using software.

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Three
The ERM process activities

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3. The ERM process activities
Each of the activities of the ERM process is described in detail below. Firstly the two enabling activities are
outlined, followed by the five major activities. The ways in which the enabling activities and documentation
relate to each of major activities is also detailed.

3.1 Communicate and consult

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Communication and consultation are intrinsic to the process of risk management and
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should be considered at each step. An important aspect of ‘establishing the context’ is

to identify stakeholders and seek and consider their needs. A communication plan can
then be developed. This plan should specify the purpose or goal of the communication,
who is to be consulted and by whom, when it will take place, how the process will
occur, and how it will be evaluated.

p21 HB 436:2004 Risk management guidelines 2004

Because emergency risk management deals with events which do not happen very often, communication
and consultation are essential components.

Because of the types of risk dealt with in the ERM process there should be a process of consultation and
dialogue. The ERM project is more likely to be successful when stakeholders understand each
other’s perspectives and are actively involved in decision-making.

Effective communication and consultation will:

• improve people’s understanding of risks and the emergency risk management process
• ensure that the varied views of stakeholders are considered
• ensure that all participants are aware of their roles and responsibilities.

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 Communication

A communication plan should be developed at the start of the ERM process, and ensure representation
from the community. It will encourage commitment, participation, and ownership of the process of
managing risks.

It is especially important to communicate effectively with key stakeholders. It may also be appropriate to
target “champions” who can enable a better community understanding of ERM issues.

These are some of the questions that can be asked to help ensure good communication:
• What are the major issues?
• Who are the relevant focus groups?
• Who are the “champions” within the community?
• How can information be communicated to internal and external stakeholders?
• How can the community’s concerns regarding sources of risk be determined?
• What kinds of information should be distributed?
• How can information be presented in a simple, clear, non-technical way?
• Do different groups of people need different types of information?

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• How can concepts such as uncertainty of information, modelling techniques and
risk assessment be clearly communicated? e
• How can Freedom of Information provision be acknowledged?
• How can communications encourage people to search for more information
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(e.g. use of the internet)?
• What is the role of the media and how can this be optimised to produce clear and
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unambiguous messages?
(Based on Queensland Department of Emergency Services 1999, Disaster risk management, DES,
Brisbane.)
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Consultation
Consultation practices need to planned at an early stage in the ERM process and be tailored to the
specific context.
Here are some useful basic principles:
• Make communications clear and timely.
• Allow for input into decision-making about scope, aims and outcomes at each stage
of discussion and submissions.
• Provide comprehensive and timely information to encourage fair and informed
discussion of issues.
• Support the consultative process by providing information requested by those wishing
to provide input.
• Establish clear and realistic timelines sensitive to the available resources of participants.
• Translate technical language into plain language.

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• Give practical help to engage participants, mindful of equal opportunity principles.
• Facilitate the inclusion of participants with Languages-Other-Than- English (LOTE) backgrounds.
• Give frequent and relevant feedback (e.g. information about emerging technologies, key
outcomes from meetings and consultations, the nature of contributions from interested
people, final key recommendations).
• Enable people entering the process at different stages to influence the direction of the process.
• Stimulate conciliatory and constructive exchange of views and genuinely try to address the
major issues without prejudice.
• Monitor and evaluate the consultation process during, and after each stage.

Share the responsibilities of effective consultation with participants.

Monitoring and review

As communication and consultation are critical to the success of emergency risk management, these

d
activities should be regularly monitored and reviewed to ensure that those responsible for implementing
ERM, and those with a vested interest, continue to be included in the process.
e
Sometimes it is realised that the inclusion of some key stakeholder groups has been overlooked, and their
representatives are therefore invited to enter the ERM project when the process has already begun. When
iv
this happens, they should be fully briefed on process activities and decisions to date.

Occasionally an observer can be appointed to critique the committee processes, providing feedback on,
ch

for example, the chairperson’s effectiveness in managing the committee and compliance with any terms of
reference & ground rules or rules of conduct.

The effectiveness of the communications and consultation plans should also be tested occasionally to
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check whether appropriate information is flowing to and from stakeholder groups, and the level of their
understanding.

Documenting this activity

The documentation associated with communication and consultation may include the following:

• a listing of key stakeholders

• a communication plan or a series of communication strategies
• a consultation plan or a series of consultation strategies
• any formal reporting arrangements and milestones
• agreed rules for the conduct of committee meetings

17
 3.2 Monitor and review

e d
iv
ch

Monitoring and review is an integral part of the risk management system, it also supports continuous
improvement.

Few risks remain static. Changing circumstances can affect the need for treatment of risks, alter priorities,
or mean that selected treatment methods are no longer effective. This means that there needs to be
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monitoring of risks, treatment plans and strategies, and the management systems set up to control
implementation.

So that progress can be easily monitored, key steps, or milestones, should be identified when an ERM
project plan is developed. Performance indicators in measurable units should also be established to
clearly demonstrate whether the project is meeting its aims and objectives and how efficiently it is
achieving outcomes.

To ensure that the management system remains relevant, it should be reviewed constantly. A process
known as environmental scanning may be used for this purpose to identify changes in the environment
which may impact on the success of the ERM project.

Factors affecting the likelihood and consequences of an outcome may change, as may the factors that
affect the suitability or cost of the various treatment options.

18
Therfore the risk management cycle should be repeated regularly, especially in relation to significant events
such as:

• a Coroner’s Court directive

• an operational debrief
• the requirements of a new municipal council
• increased knowledge or experience
• new data emerging.

Clear arrangements for monitoring and review should be made and documented throughout the ERM
process. Appropriate systems should be devised and introduced at an early stage, especially where deal-
ing with large numbers of risks and risk treatments. The section in this publication on emergency risk man-
agement tools provides an overview of some typical tools used for this.

Communicating and consulting about this activity

When establishing a project plan with associated milestones and performance indicators, there should be
consultation with stakeholders to fully understand community expectations and imperatives around
emergency risk management.
e d
It is also essential to involve stakeholders in understanding and communicating the implementation aspects
of the plan. This means that stakeholders can provide feedback on any implementation issues, such as the
iv
creation of new risks, or opportunities for enhancing risk reduction potential. Information on emerging risks
should also be identified when monitoring and reviewing any stage of the process.
ch

Documenting this activity

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Documentation of the monitoring and review element includes:

• regular reports on the application of the process
• regular status reports on the implementation of treatments
• recommended changes to the ERM process itself

19
 3.3 Establish the context

e d
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As with all processes in society, ERM occurs within the scope and limitations of established policies,
practices and relationships. In establishing the context participants develop a shared understanding of the
basic parameters within which risks must be managed, and define the scope of the rest of the ERM
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process. The state/territory policy framework for ERM is the starting point for this activity. (See section 1.3
above for an example of an ERM policy.)

The shared understanding of the context should be re-examined regularly to check the direction of the
project and, if necessary, to make changes.
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Establishing the context incorporates the following:

• Define the task
• Establish the ERM framework
• Develop risk evaluation criteria
Each of these is examined in more detail.

Define the task

Task definition defines the boundaries within which the ERM framework can be established. It involves
identifying which range of risks should be covered in the project. It is not appropriate to identify possible
solutions at this stage.

20
Establish the ERM framework

This focuses on how the ERM process will be applied to the task, and is done by considering:
• Who are the stakeholders?
• What legislation and policy is applicable?
• What management arrangements are applicable?
• What aspects of the political, economic, social and cultural environment are relevant?

Stakeholders

Identifying the stakeholder groups is central to the ERM process.

Stakeholder groups may include:

• communities
• emergency management agencies
• emergency service organisations
• government

d
• industry
•
•
industry associations
essential services
e
iv
• recovery agencies

(See section 1.4 Who participates in the ERM process? above for other possible groups which may be
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included.)

Each stakeholder group or organisation should have an endorsed representative who is able to act on their
behalf.
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Legislation and policy

Because the ERM process is concerned with a wide range of sources of risk and elements at risk, it is
affected by a great range of legislation and policies. Therefore stakeholders will need to understand:
• compliance requirements in relation to ERM policies and emergency service
regulations in their jurisdictions
• workplace safety, public health and the environment legislation and policy requirements
• liability issues, especially in relation to the timeliness of implementing treatments
once risks have been identified.

21
 Management arrangements

Established community structures and arrangements should be used, when possible, in the ERM
processes of:
• communicating and consulting
• monitoring and reviewing ERM project work
• identifying emerging risks.

“Champions” and other influential community members can help others gain an understanding of the value
of the ERM project. Also, any established emergency management committees or emergency related
workgroups can assist the proposed ERM committee.

Political, economic, social and cultural environment

Community scanning should be carried out to identify factors in the political, economic, social and cultural
environment which have the potential to impact the ERM project. Typical factors are shown in the
table below.

e d
Examples of political, economic, social and cultural factors
iv
which may impact ERM
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Political • independence of local government elected members

• influence of political factions
• state/local government partnerships
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• Australian Government Natural Disaster Mitigation funding

Economic • unprecedented tourism growth

• stable local government rates base
• socio-economic composition
• recent loss of business/commercial activity

Social • high unemployment

• transient population
• demographics

Cultural • ethnic composition

• history of settlement
• languages other than English spoken
• strong community support

22
Examples of how political, economic, social and cultural factors may impact ERM

Political
Australian Government Natural Disaster Mitigation funding and established state/local
government partnerships should facilitate funding of certain risk treatment strategy implementation.

Economic
Local economy heavily dependent on tourism therefore important to ensure tourists’ needs
are considered.

Social
High unemployment and a “volunteer mindset” may allow the implementation of low technology/
high labour treatment strategies.

Cultural
The multi-cultural background of the community requires education and awareness programs
to be presented in several languages.

Develop risk evaluation criteria

e d
iv
The development of risk evaluation criteria will help in making judgements about which risks need to be
treated. Based on operational, technical, financial, legal, social, environmental or humanitarian considera-
tions, criteria should reflect community viewpoints and values.
ch

Risk evaluation criteria should be developed in the context definition stage so that they are not unduly
influenced or skewed by outcomes from later stages. But further development and refinement may take
place when particular risks are identified and as risk analysis techniques are chosen.
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Risk evaluation criteria should be monitored and reviewed regularly to make sure that they continue to be
relevant.

Example of risk evaluation criteria statements (1)

• Any reasonably preventable accident/incident resulting in loss of life is unacceptable.

• Any reasonably preventable accident/incident resulting in serious injury is unacceptable.
• Any reasonably preventable matter that will affect the health and wellbeing of a
community is unacceptable.
• Any reasonably preventable activity or incident that will have a medium- to long-term or
permanent effect on the environment is unacceptable.

23
 • Any reasonably preventable activity or incident that will have a long-term or
permanent effect on the cultural assets and values of a community is unacceptable.
• Any reasonably preventable activity or incident that will seriously disrupt normal business
activity is unacceptable.
• Any reasonably preventable activity or incident that will seriously disrupt community lifelines
or services is unacceptable.
• Any reasonably preventable activity or action that could lead to the introduction of exotic
diseases or pests to Tasmania is unacceptable.
(North West Regional Workshop, Burnie, Tasmania, 2 July 2001)

Example of risk evaluation criteria statements (2)

Life
• the Cities of Wanneroo and Joondalup want the loss of life per capita, in any statistical
category, to be less than the national and State average; and

d
• the aim is to reduce the loss of life as much as possible from any incident occurring in the
Cities of Wanneroo and Joondalup.
Economic
e
iv
• the Cities of Wanneroo and Joondalup will not exceed sustainable economic loss
proportional to the enterprise. (An enterprise being anything from a family unit, to a
business, a corporation or a government agency.)
ch

Environment
• no preventable environmental damage is acceptable (e.g. erosion, chemical incident
and marine/wetland pollution);
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• no future development should add to environmental damage;

• no significant environmental damage is acceptable to wetlands, national parks,
council reserves and parks; and
• development, planning and infrastructure to take into account environmental issues
(e.g. air quality, visual, noise and aesthetics).

24
Lifelines

It is considered that the Cities of Wanneroo and Joondalup communities will accept the following as max-
imum timeframes for the loss of lifeline services as a result of a major incident:

Lifeline service Maximum timeframe for loss of service

Electricity 8-10 hours
Gas 24 hours
Water 2-4 hours
Sewage 2-4 hours
Rail 24 hours (without alternative public transport available)
Road 2 hours (adequate alternative road routes exist)
Communications 8-12 hours

Social
Maintain or re-establish social and cultural infrastructure (e.g. community groups and sporting groups) fol-
lowing an emergency as a high priority, to assist the community in the recovery from the emergency.

Heritage
• no preventable damage or loss to declared heritage sites is acceptable
(e.g. via development, vandalism and neglect); and
• e d
the aim is to maintain and protect the integrity of heritage sites.

(This information forms the basis of risk evaluation criteria for the Cities of Wanneroo and Joondalup,
Western Australia)
iv
Cities of Wanneroo and Joondalup, AWARE Project - Stage 1, Emergency Risk Management Report
(2004).
ch

Communicating and consulting about this activity

Ar

In the establishing context phase, communication and consultation with stakeholders is the best way to
gather available information on the emergency risk management project being conducted as well as
finding out about the group’s expectations and perceptions.

If there is already an existing local emergency management committee, there should be communication and
consultation with them. It can be used as the core of any proposed ERM committee.

Especially where the focus of ERM is likely to be restricted by time or other resources, communication and
consultation processes can help by ensuring that all stakeholder group representatives have a shared
understanding of the scope of the work and the political, economic, social and cultural factors which might
impact it.

Communication and consultation are also critical in determining risk evaluation criteria which reflect the
values of a broad consensus of people in the community.

25
 Monitoring and reviewing this activity

Because establishing context sets the direction for the whole ERM process, several aspects of
this phase need to be monitored and reviewed, including:

• continued relevance of shared understandings

• the appropriateness of stakeholder group representation
• changes to political, economic, social and cultural factors, especially if the project
is of medium- to long-term duration

If there are any significant changes in these aspects the ERM process should be reviewed.

Documenting this activity

• a listing of internal and external stakeholders, if not already documented

• any scoping criteria reflecting which risks are to be treated
• a brief description of the basic parameters within which risks are to be managed

d
• a project plan including a training plan
•
•
e
the state/territory policy or arrangements relating to emergency risk management
a list of risk evaluation criteria that will guide future decisions on the risks to be treated
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• key decisions/outcomes of discussions at meetings.
ch
Ar

26
3.4 Identify risks

the environment.
d
Risk is generated by the potential for a source of risk to interact with an element of the community and
e
The focus of the identify risks activity in the ERM process is to identify and describe the nature of risks
within the ERM scope. This is done in the form of risk statements, which are then documented in a
iv
risk register.
This identification process must be comprehensive because any area of risk not identified may not be
included in the risk analysis and evaluation phases.
ch

Appendix B lists generic community sources of risk, and Appendix C lists generic community elements
at risk.
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Describing hazards or sources of risk

Identified hazards or sources of risk are described using characteristics gathered from data from a range of
sources, for example:
• scientific data and research
• records and accounts of past events..

Example
Source of risk description

A source of risk may be described in terms of:

• intensity (how big, fast, powerful)
• likelihood of occurrence (frequency of the event, not the impact)
• extent (the area that a source of risk may impact)
• timeframe (warning time, duration, time of day/week/year)
• manageability (what can be done about it).

(Based on educational material provided by EMA Institute)

27
 Describing elements at risk

Sources of information (historical and scientific) used as a basis for describing sources of risk can also be
used to describe the elements at risk.

Example: Element at risk description

Bridges

The municipality of Newton relies on three bridges as part of its road network, and one rail bridge.

Details of bridges

Name Construction Width Height at which

unusable

Smiths Road Bridge Steel and concrete 2 lanes 4 metres

Centenary Bridge Steel and concrete 4 lanes 5 metres

d
Rail bridge Steel 1 lane 3 metres

Knights Bridge Timber 1 line 6 metres

e
iv
(Based on educational material provided by EMA Institute)
ch

Identification of risk relationships

A risk relationship identification matrix, as shown in the table below, can be used to determine whether there
is a relationship between a source of risk and an element at risk.
Ar

This activity is similar to brainstorming and may be used to encourage all participants to contribute to
identifying risk.

Example: Risk relationship identification matrix

Source of risk Elements at risk

Community Life Assets Secondary Environment Other

facilities industry

Bushfire
Severe Weather
Foot-and-mouth
animal disease
Structural fire
Structural fire

(Adapted from the Tasmanian Emergency Risk Management Project 2003)

28
Justification of a risk relationship

After producing a risk relationship identification matrix, it may be useful to review the information to deter-
mine if there is a credible or plausible relationship-or relationship worthy of confidence-between a source of
risk and an element at risk.

This can be done by identifying a justification for the relationship through expanding the information in the
matrix, again drawing on historical information, scientific data and research, and accounts of past events
as useful starting points. Local knowledge and the advice of emergency service professionals may also be
helpful, especially in relation to emerging risks.

Examples of typical relationship justifications are shown in the table below.

Typical risk relationship justifications

Source of risk Element at risk Relationship justification

Bushfirer Community facilities: College of Inappropriate siting of timber buildings

Advanced Education Buildingsr in bushland settingr

Lifer
e d
Environment: loss of native habitatsr
Single access with isolation potentialr

Historical evidence has shown that

bushfires destroy native habitatsr
iv
Severe weatherr Secondary industry: viability of Unexpected snow storms of the past
some hinterland tourism five winters have marginalised some
operationsr tourism venturesr
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Foot-and-mouth Secondary industry: regional Inferred from United Kingdom

animal diseaser economyr experiencer

Structural fire r Assets: residential properties r Wood-fired winter heating prevalent

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in the area

(Adapted from the Tasmanian Emergency Risk Management Project, 2003)

Generate risk statements

For each credible relationship that is established between a source of risk and an element at risk,
a risk statement should be generated. This will be used as basis for analysis and evaluation.

Each risk statement should outline:

• the source of risk
• the element at risk
• the consequences of the interaction.

29
 Example of a risk statement

Source of risk Element of risk

There is a risk that an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in the region’s farms would cause a collapse of
the local economy.

Consequences of interaction

In theory there are an infinite number of risk relationships so it is important to keep the number of risk
statements manageable while not losing any important information. For example, there are currently 64
animal diseases classified under the Emergency Animal Disease Response Agreement of the Australian
Government’s AUSVETPLAN. Sometimes it may be appropriate to relate the risk to one particular disease,
but at other times it may be more appropriate to classify the source of risk as animal disease with a short-
term, medium-term or long-term impact, or animal disease impacting or not impacting human health.

The table below gives examples of different ways jurisdictions have structured their risk statements.

Risk statements-Example 1
e d
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• There is a risk that a bushfire within the municipal reserve will cause significant
damage to the College of Advanced Education timber buildings.
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• There is a risk that a bushfire within the municipal reserve will cause the loss of
life of some Wilderness Road residents.
• There is a risk that a bushfire within the municipal reserve will cause the loss of the
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orange bellied parrots’ native habitat.

• There is a risk that severe snow storms will impact the viability of the hinterland
tourism ventures.
• There is a risk that a major outbreak of foot and mouth animal disease across the
municipality will cause the regional economy to significantly decline.
• There is a risk that structural fire will cause serious damage to the timber houses
of the Wilderness Reserve.

30
Risk statements-Example 2

Different jurisdictions and communities have developed risk statements in different ways. The
following examples of risk statements for a Victorian municipality are taken from Victorian Community
emergency risk management workbook.

• A flash flood resulting from a heavy downpour and rapid inundation could cause flooding of low
lying areas followed by closure of roads and flooding of properties. This could result in people
being trapped in their cars, isolated in their homes or workplaces and significant water damage
to residential and business properties. The environment may be polluted by litter dispersal.
Temporary displacement of people and traffic congestion could occur.

• If a terrorist attack occurred in a place where large numbers of people gather, it could result in
multiple casualties and fatalities, significant property and infrastructure damage, utility and
service disruption, traffic congestion, business disruption and severely impact the local
economy. The psychological impact on the public and government could be destabilising and
degradation of the community fabric could be significant.

• Alternative approaches are then required for analysing and evaluating risks, but the generation

d
of treatment options, the selection of treatment options and the preparation and
implementation of treatment plans remain the same as those documented in this publication.
e
iv
ch

Communicating and consulting about this activity

Communication and consultation with stakeholder group representatives are critical at this phase so that:
Ar

• all areas of risk are identified and sources of risk and elements at risk are
accurately described
• appropriate structuring of risks is determined, avoiding an unwieldy number of
risk statements but not masking any significant aspect of a risk.

Monitoring and reviewing this activity

Monitoring and review procedures or protocols need to be established in this phase to identify any
significant changes which could affect the ERM project. These procedures and protocols should also
capture future sources of risk.

Risk evaluation criteria established in the establish context stage should also be reviewed.

31
 Documenting this activity

The documentation arising from risk identification includes:

• concise descriptions of the sources of risk, the community and the environment
• a risk identification relationship matrix
• justification of credible risk relationships between each source of risk and each
element at risk
• risk statements relating each source of risk, the element at risk and the consequences
• key decisions/outcomes from discussions at meetings.

3.5 Analyse risks

e d
iv
ch
Ar

Analysing a risk is about developing an understanding of the risk. Through understanding a risk and any
existing controls to minimise its impact, the likelihood and expected consequences of a risk can be
estimated, allowing a level of risk to be determined.

It is sometimes appropriate to group risks which have the same estimated likelihood, consequence and
level of risk. This will minimise the number of risks and risk treatment strategies to be dealt with in the
ERM process.

32
Existing controls

In this first step in the risk analysis process, existing controls-processes, devices or practices that act to
minimise risk-are identified. Then their effectiveness in minimising the likelihood and consequences of a risk
are assessed.

There are many types of control, including those arising from outcomes of previous risk treatment strate-
gies. Typical controls include land use management, building codes, building use regulations, legislation,
community education and awareness, emergency plans, training, emergency plan testing, mutual aid
agreements and warning systems.

Examples of existing controls

Risk (see example above for details) Existing key control measures

Flash Flooding Storm water drains regularly maintained, with ongoing

capacity upgrading

e d
Building Codes and enforcement

SES units equipped, with procedures, for storm and

iv
flooding response

Medical Disaster Plan and Ambulance procedures

ch

Traffic management procedures

Fire Service equipped, with procedures, for rescue and

salvage response.
Ar

Terrorism Counter-terrorism budgeting, planning and other

arrangements at Commonwealth and state levels

Counter-terrorism Coordination Unit coordination, risk

management and response strategies

Business continuity planning

Emergency service organisations’ procedures, training

and exercises

Public education and awareness campaigns

Medical Disaster Plan and Ambulance procedures.

(From Victoria’s Community emergency risk management workbook)

33
 Consequences and likelihood

Although quantitative modelling can be used to estimate levels of risk for a given scenario, it is useful to
carry out a broad qualitative analysis, as an initial form of screening, before committing resources on
detailed analysis.

An important concept in emergency risk management is likelihood. Risk analysis involves consideration of
the sources of risk, their consequences and the likelihood that those consequences may occur. This term
refers to the likelihood of harmful consequences occurring, not to the likelihood of source of risk occurring.
Risk analysis will vary depending on the information, data and resources available. An ERM activity may
require customisation of the qualitative consequence and likelihood tables (see examples at Appendixes D
and E).

The second step in risk analysis is estimating, qualitatively or quantitatively, the likely magnitude of the
consequences for each risk, taking into account existing controls.

The third step is estimating, qualitatively or quantitatively, the likelihood of the consequences occurring for
each risk.

Level of risk

e d
Next the level of risk should be deduced, using a risk level matrix. See Appendix F for a typical risk level
matrix.
iv
Risk analysis will also provide information that feeds in to subsequent evaluation, prioritisation and treatment
of risks. Risk analysis will also provide information that feeds in to subsequent evaluation, prioritisation and
treatment of risks. Particular care must be taken with risk analysis because likelihood and consequence of
ch

many risks in ERM are difficult to estimate. This is because of the poor data and high levels of uncertainty
associated with both likelihood and consequences. For example, estimating the likelihood of a significant
earthquake in some urbanised parts of Australia compared to say flood modelling in the same area.
Ar

Wherever possible, quantitative levels of consequence and likelihood should be used so that subjectivity is
reduced in estimating levels of risk. In some situations “we do not know what we don’t know”. The
occurrence of a significant earthquake in 1988 in Tennant Creek was a surprise to scientists who rewrote
the record books for that part of Australia.

It is important to strike a balance between the effort required to obtain further information and the value of
that information to the decision-making process. The availability of simple-to-use software tools can give
the appearance of robust analysis even where the underlying logic is flawed.

34
Communicating and consulting about this activity

Information on existing controls and their adequacy should be elicited from stakeholder groups through
communication and consultation.

Stakeholder groups should also be fully consulted in the development of:

• qualitative measures of consequence and likelihood
• the qualitative risk analysis matrix-level of risk
• to ensure that these are suitable for the project.

Monitoring and reviewing this activity

As quantitative measures of consequence and likelihood become available, the levels of risk should be
reviewed to reduce the subjectivity around estimating levels of risk.

It is also important to be aware of the influence of the qualitative risk analysis matrix on the estimation of
levels of risk, so the matrix selected should reflect the risks being considered in the project.

Documenting this activity

e d
iv
For each identified risk, the documentation arising from this risk analysis stage includes:
• a listing of existing controls and an estimation of their effectiveness
ch

• customised qualitative measures of consequence and likelihood

• a customised qualitative risk analysis matrix
• estimates of assigned consequence and likelihood
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• an estimated level of risk

• risk analysis methods including assumptions
• sources and quality of information used
• methods and sources of scientific data used, where appropriate
• key decisions/outcomes from discussions at meetings.
It could be useful to document how the decision was made, for example, engineering quantitative data
having been used to underpin a decision to determine a qualitative risk level.

35
 3.6 Evaluate risks

e
risks need treatment and treatment priorities.
d
The purpose of risk evaluation is to make decisions, based on the outcomes of risk analysis, about which
iv
The need for risk treatment
ch

Evaluating a risk means making a decision about whether a risk is being satisfactorily managed or if it
requires further treatment. The decision about whether a risk needs to be treated is based on:
Ar

the risk analysis

risk evaluation criteria.

Even if treatment strategies are not justified, the risk should be listed, as well as information about
consequence, likelihood and risk level. Subsequently it should be monitored and reviewed to make sure that
the decision not to treat this risk is still appropriate.

Initial prioritisation

Risks needing treatment are prioritised in order of their level of risk, usually in descending order of need of
treatment. These priorities should also align with the community’s values and expectations.

If risks have the same risk level, the ERM committee should order them by using methods such as:
• rating the consequence level higher than the likelihood level, or
• rating the protection of life higher than protection of property and the environment.

This ordering of risks based on level of risk provides only an initial screening of the priorities for risk
treatment. These priorities may need to be confirmed or modified during the Treat risks phase.

36
Communicating and consulting about this activity

Communication and consultation amongst stakeholder group representatives underpin decisions about
risks requiring treatment and their prioritisation.

These decisions should be shared with stakeholders at an early stage to confirm alignment with the
community’s values and expectations.

Monitoring and reviewing this activity

Because this phase of the process is heavily dependent on the evaluation of a large amount of information
and data, and on input from all stakeholder group representatives, ERM committee decision-making
processes should be monitored and reviewed. One method for doing this is having an observer critique the
processes and provide feedback.

Where it is decided that existing controls are satisfactory and risk treatments are not required, the risk, and

d
the criteria used for making the decision, should be listed in the form of a risk register. This information will
greatly assist subsequent monitoring and review to ensure the decision remains appropriate.
e
iv
Documenting this activity
ch

The documentation arising from this phase includes:

• a listing (i.e. risk statements) of risks not requiring treatment, with associated consequence,
Ar

likelihood and risk level information

• criteria used in determining which risks to treat and not to treat
• a listing of risks requiring treatment, with associated consequence, likelihood and risk level
information, in agreed risk level order (see Appendix G)
• key decisions/outcomes from discussions at meetings.

37
 3.7 Treat risks

e
preparation and implementation of treatment plans.
d
Risk treatment involves identifying range of options for treating risks, assessing these options, and the
iv
ch

Before appropriate treatment actions can be determined, the analysis of each risk may need to
be revisited and extended to draw out the information needed to identify and explore different
treatment options. The design of risk treatment measures should be based on a
comprehensive understanding of the risks concerned; this understanding comes from an
Ar

appropriate level of risk analysis. It is particularly important to identify the causes of risks so
that these are treated and not just the symptoms.

p72 Risk Management Guidelines HB 436:2004

Identifying treatment options

When treatment options are being identified, legal, social, political and economic considerations need to be
taken into account, especially when allocating resources for risk reduction.

A number of approaches can be used for identifying risk treatment options.

These include:
• the AS/NZS Standard 4360:2004 Risk management treatment options
• prevention/mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery (PPRR)

38
AS/NZS Standard 4360:2004 Risk management treatment options

The risk management treatment measures outlined in the Standard are:

• avoid the risk: decide not to proceed with the activity likely to generate risk
• reduce the likelihood of harmful consequences occurring: by modifying the source of risk
• reduce the consequences occurring: by modifying susceptibility and/or increasing resilience
• transfer the risk: cause another party to share or bear the risk
• retain the risk: accept the risk and plan to manage its consequence.

Prevention/mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery

The effectiveness of existing arrangements are considered, focusing on prevention/mitigation

and preparedness.

d
Possible prevention/mitigation strategies can include:
• land use management
• building codes
e
iv
• building use regulations
• relocation
ch

• legislation.

Preparedness strategies which can be considered include:

• community education and awareness
Ar

• emergency plans
• training
• emergency plan exercising
• mutual aid agreements
• warning systems.

Response strategies which can be considered include:

• plan implementation
• search and rescue
• mobilization of resources
• activate coordination centres
• warning messages.
• providing public information.

39
 Recovery strategies may include:
• restoring essential services
• financial support and assistance
• temporary housing
• managing public appeals
• counselling program
• reconstruction of damaged public infrastructure

Other approaches

Other ways of considering risk treatment are to be encouraged. The ERM committee should be flexible and
innovative in determining which approach is best suited to identifying appropriate risk treatment options.

It should be noted that it is often difficult to completely eliminate or prevent risks and some residual risk will
remain following risk treatment. The residual risk may lead to emergencies, which will require some form of
emergency response and recovery arrangements.

The table below shows some examples of risk treatment options. They relate to the risk statement
examples already shown in the table in the Identify risks section above.

Examples of risk treatment options

Risk statements
e d
Treatment options
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There is a risk that a bushfire within the Fuel reduction burning/fire break maintenance
municipal reserve will cause significant Fire awareness program for students
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damage to the College of Advanced Fire management strategy

Education buildings Refurbish building in fire resistant materials

There is a risk that a bushfire within the Community education program

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municipal reserve will cause the loss of life of Construct alternative access road
some Wilderness Road residents Fuel reduction burning

There is a risk that a bushfire within the Initiate a bush watch program
municipal reserve will cause the loss of the Review fire permit system
orange bellied parrots’ native habitat Enhance tank water supplies

There is a risk that severe snow storms will Deploy snowploughs/road gritting, as
impact the viability of the hinterland tourism appropriate
ventures Provide alternative communal four wheel
drive transport

There is a risk that a major outbreak of foot Improve quarantine inspections

and mouth animal disease across the munic- Random swill feeding audits
ipality will cause the regional economy to Community awareness program
significantly decline

There is a risk that structural fire will cause Promote alternative heating modes (to elimi-
serious damage to the timber houses of the nate use of woodheaters)
Wilderness Reserve Enhance tank water supplies

40
Assessing treatment options

In considering assessment criteria for risk treatment options, it may be necessary to refer to state/territory
policy on emergency risk management. It will also be necessary to consider community values and
expectations. The criteria to be used are then selected and modified to suit the emergency risk
management context.

Some criteria for assessing risk treatment options

Criteria Questions

Cost Is this option affordable? Is it the most cost-effective?

Timing Will the beneficial effects of this option be quickly realised?

Leverage Will the application of this option lead to further risk-reducing

actions by others?

Administrative efficiency Can this option be easily administered or will its application

d
be neglected because of difficulty of administration or lack
of expertise?
e
Continuity of effects Will the effects of the application of this option be continuous or
merely short-term?
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Compatibility How compatible is this option with others that may be adopted?
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Jurisdictional authority Does this level of government have the legislated authority to
apply this option? If not, can higher levels be encouraged to
do so?
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Effects on the economy What will be the economic impacts of this option?

Effects on the environment What will be the environmental impacts of this option?

Risk creation Will this option itself introduce new risks?

Equity Do those responsible for creating the risk pay for it’s reduction?
When the risk is not man-made, is the cost fairly distributed?

Risk reduction potential What proportion of the losses due to this risk will this option
prevent?

Political acceptability Is this option likely to be endorsed by the relevant governments?

Public and pressure group Are there likely to be adverse reactions to implementation of this
reaction option?

Individual freedom Does this option deny basic rights?

(adapted from Foster, HD 1980, Disaster planning, Springer-Verlag New York Inc., NY)

41
 The most common tool for assessing risk treatment options is cost-benefit analysis, which provides a
means of comparing the cost of risk treatment against the benefits that would result from reducing the risk.
In general, the cost of managing risks should be less than the costs of the benefits obtained.

Where it is not cost-effective to reduce the risks, it is appropriate to develop response and recovery plans
to ensure the community and environment, if affected by an emergency, can return to normal functioning
with minimal disruption as soon as possible.

Using the criteria selected and modified by stakeholder group representatives, each risk treatment option
is assessed to determine the most appropriate treatment or mix of treatments appropriate to the
community and environment.

The importance of involvement of the risk owner or person likely to be responsible for treating the risk is
crucial throughout the ERM process, but especially in this activity of assessing risk treatment options.

After selecting one or more of the most appropriate risk treatment options, it is important to gauge whether
the residual risk-the risk remaining after treatment-is acceptable to all stakeholders, or whether further
treatment is required. If further treatment is required, the risk management cycle is repeated, reassessing
the consequences, likelihood, level of risk and adequacy of existing controls.

A holistic approach to treatment

d
It is sometimes more appropriate to develop a range of treatment options to effectively remove or reduce
risks within a community. Therefore, several treatment options may need to be incorporated into a strategy
e
that may span the responsibility of several agencies/organisations and levels of government.
iv
Treatment options that require collective input and implementation require a strategic planning approach.
The strategic plan should include goals, objectives, activities and key result areas for each agency/
organisation that contributes towards reducing or removing the risk.
ch

Cooperative approaches require a high degree of coordination as well as effective corporate governance to
continually monitor and review progress and outcomes of the strategy. Existing management structures and
emergency management systems are effective means to achieving an all-agency, collaborative approach to
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developing safer, more sustainable communities.

Example of a treatment strategy for bushfire

There is a risk that in the dry season bushfire will occur threatening a certain residential area.

A set of treatment options for this risk could be:

• having control burns of surrounding bushland
• ensuring residents clear their properties of debris
• conducting a public education program enabling residents to be aware of bushfire risks in
the dry season
• installing a bushfire warning system
• developing an evacuation plan
• developing a recovery management plan.

Because many different agencies/organisations would have responsibility for these treatment options, a
coordinated Bushfire risk reduction strategy could be developed, describing the different treatment options
and how they will provide a holistic approach to mitigating against the risk of bushfire.

42
Preparing strategies and plans

At this point risk treatment plans should be made and implemented. These plans should specify:

• responsibilities, schedules, the expected outcome of treatments, budgeting, performance measures

and the review process to be set in place
• mechanisms for assessing the implementation of the options against treatment objectives, individual
responsibilities and other objectives, and processes for monitoring treatment strategy progress
against critical implementation milestones
• how the selected options will be implemented.

Plans should be integrated with management and budgetary processes of any organisation/agency under-
taking risk treatments so that ERM is embedded in normal business practice.

A single treatment option can generate a single agency/organisation treatment plan, where implementation
is the responsibility of only one agency/organisation.

Communicating and consulting about this activity

e d
Communication and consultation with stakeholder group representatives will be useful in generating risk
treatment options, unless these are already guided by state/territory ERM policy. Approaches can include
one or more of those shown in the Identifying treatment options section above, or the use of innovative,
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lateral thinking.

Communication and consultation with the community are also important in this phase to ensure that
ch

chosen treatment options and priorities for implementation align with community expectations. Even after
risk treatments have been implemented, regular contact with the community should be encouraged,
especially in relation to incidents arising and remedial actions taken.
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Monitoring and reviewing this activity

In this phase, there should be regular monitoring and reviewing of:

• decisions taken - to ensure that risk treatments are the most appropriate
• community expectations - to ensure community acceptance of the residual risk and associated
response and recovery arrangements
• implementation plans and the actual implementation program of works - to ensure progress is
acceptable to the risk treatment owners and the community.

Third party audit or peer group review can often assist the monitoring and review of the emergency risk
management process, by confirming that the aims and objectives of the process have been achieved
effectively and efficiently.

43
 Documenting this activity

The documentation arising from this activity includes:

• a listing of the risk treatment options considered

• the basis for assessing and selecting the preferred option or mix of options
• the assigned priorities for implementing the risk treatment options
• the rationale for priorities assigned
• risk treatment implementation plans
• key decisions/outcomes from discussions at meetings.

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Four
Emergency risk management tools

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 4. Emergency risk management tools

Because regular monitoring and review is an integral part of the emergency risk management process, sys-
tems should be established and maintained to facilitate this process.

Three examples of systems that can be used in this process are detailed below:

• the unique identifier system

• risk register database
• Geographic Information Systems.

4.1 The unique identifier system

This system is based on allocating a unique alphanumeric (letter-number) identifier to each risk. This
identifier gives information about the risk location, category or nature of the risk, and the sequential position
of the risk within that category. This allows tracking of the risk from the Identify risk phase through to the
Treat risks phase.

Example
e d
iv
In the Tasmanian Emergency Risk Management Project, to keep track of risks arising from natural and
technological hazards in Tasmania’s 29 municipal areas, a system was devised which allowed a unique
identifier to be assigned to each risk statement generated.
ch

The identifier comprised:

• two letters assigned to the municipal area in which the risk occurred
plus
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• two digits assigned to the nature of the source of risk

plus
• two digits assigned to the sequential position of the risk, irrespective of the level of risk.

For example:
DC 02.04 relates to a risk occurring in the City of Devonport municipal area, where the risk arises from
bushfire and is the fourth bushfire risk in this municipal area.

GT 03.01 relates to a risk occurring in the George Town municipal area, where the risk arises from storm
events and is the first storm event risk in this municipal area.

Throughout the project, 2178 natural and technological risks were identified, with 787 risks considered to
require treatment. Risks considered by working committees not to require treatment were well documented
to enable regular review should there be changes in the risk level, community acceptance or the need for
treatment. This unique identifier system greatly assists in the tracking of risks.

46
4.2 Risk register database

Another system that can be used to facilitate the management of risk treatment and risk review is a
computerised database. Proprietary risk register database software is available for this. As well as assisting
in the management of risk treatment and review it can help in decision-making, bringing a rigour to the
process as well as storing comprehensive background information.

If proprietary risk management database software is used it can provide evidence of a systematic approach
to decision-making, retain community and environmental knowledge and improve recording and
management of information.

Examples

Risk Assessment Toolbox (RAT)

ERM practitioners in the Environmental Development Services department of Richmond Valley Council,
NSW, have developed a Risk Assessment Toolbox (RAT): a very easy-to-use tool using Access database
software to assist in the emergency risk management process. It streamlines the hard copy component of
ERM, cutting down on the paperwork. Contact Richmond Valley Council, NSW for more details.

Risk register database

e d
The Tasmania State Emergency Service used a risk register database to help them monitor and review the
implementation of 787 risk treatments identified in the Tasmanian Emergency Risk Management Project.
iv
ch

4.3 Geographic Information Systems

Geographic information system (GIS) risk-mapping initiatives, incorporating the seamless integration of
maps, photographs and other documents, may be beneficial when reviewing risks. They can also enhance
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understanding of the special distribution of risks.

Simple, effective, low-cost, read-only approaches based on shareware are readily available, as are more
expensive web-based interactive solutions which assist comprehensive planning needs of local government
and the operational needs of emergency management personnel.

Example

Examples of the simpler approach to GIS are available for the Tasmanian Emergency Risk Management
Project and can be viewed on the State Emergency Service website (www.ses.tas.gov.au).

47
 APPENDIX A:
Glossary

Community
a group of people with a commonality of association and generally defined by location, shared
experience or function

Consequences
outcome or impact of an event

Control
an existing process, policy, device, practice or other action that acts to minimise negative risk or
enhance positive opportunities

Elements at risk
the population, buildings and civil engineering works, economic activities, public services and
infrastructure etc. exposed to sources of risk

Emergency
an event, actual, or imminent, which endangers or threatens to endanger life, property or the
environment, and which requires a significant and coordinated response

Emergency management

d
a range of measures to manage risks to communities and the environment.

Emergency risk management

e
iv
a systematic process that produces a range of measures that contribute to the wellbeing of
communities and the environment

Environment
ch

conditions or influences comprising social, physical and built elements which surround and interact
with the community

Event
occurrence of a particular set of circumstances
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Hazard
a source of potential harm

Likelihood
used as a general description of the probability or frequency

Mitigation
measures taken in advance of a disaster aimed at decreasing or eliminating its impact on
society and environment

Monitor
to check, supervise, observe critically or measure the progress of an activity, action or system on a
regular basis in order to identify change from the performance level required or expected

Organisation
group of people and facilities with an arrangement of responsibilities, authorities and relationships

Preparedness
arrangements to ensure that, should an emergency occur, all those resources and services which are
needed to cope with the effects can be efficiently mobilised and deployed

Prevention
regulatory and physical measures to ensure that emergencies are prevented, or their effects mitigated

48
Recovery
the coordinated process of supporting emergency-affected communities in the reconstruction of
the physical infrastructure and restoration of emotional, social, economic and physical wellbeing

Residual risk
the risk remaining after implementation of risk treatment

Resilience
a measure of how quickly a system recovers from failures

Response
actions taken in anticipation of, during, and immediately after, an emergency to ensure its effects
are minimised and that people affected are given immediate relief and support

Risk
the chance of something happening that will have an impact on objectives

Risk analysis
systematic process to understand the nature of, and to deduce the level of risk

Risk assessment
the overall process of risk identification, risk analysis and risk evaluation

Risk evaluation
process of comparing the level of risk against risk criteria

d
Risk criteria
terms of reference by which the significance of risk is assessed
e
Risk management
the culture, processes and structures that are directed towards realising potential opportunities whilst
iv
managing adverse effects

Risk management process

ch

the systematic application of management policies, procedures and practices to the tasks of
communicating, establishing the context, identifying, analysing, evaluating, treating, monitoring and
reviewing risk

Risk register
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a listing of risk statements describing sources of risk and elements at risk with assigned consequences,
likelihoods and levels of risk

Risk treatment
process of selection and implementation of measures to modify risk

Risk treatment options

measures which modify the characteristics of hazards, communities or environments

Source of risk
source of potential harm

Stakeholders
those people and organisations who may affect, be affected by or perceive themselves to be affected
by, a decision, activity or risk

Susceptibility
the potential to be affected by loss

49
 APPENDIX B:
Generic community sources of risk

The following list of generic community sources of risk may be useful in considering risks which might
require emergency risk management approaches.

aeronautical and space debris

blizzard/snowstorm
bomb threat
bridge collapse
building collapse
carcinogens/mutagens/pathogens
civil disturbance/riot
cyclone
dam failure
desertification
drought
drugs

d
earthquake
economic recession/depression e
electromagnetic radiation
epidemic (human, animal, plant)
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erosion (soil, coastal)
famine
fire (residential, industrial, bush, grass)
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flood
fog
frost/extreme cold
hazardous materials
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heatwave
industrial accident
infrastructure failure (power, water, communication, gas)
landslide/rock fall/mudflow
mine accident
nuclear hazards
ozone depletion
plague (animal, human, insect, plant)
pollution (chemical, oil, hazardous waste)
resource shortage/depletion
salination
sea level rise
severe storm (electrical, extreme wind, torrential rain, hail storm)
storm surge
subsidence
terrorism
tornado
transport accident (air, rail, road, sea)
tsunami
volcano
warfare (nuclear, conventional, chemical, biological)

50
APPENDIX C:
Generic elements at risk

The following list of generic elements at risk may be useful in considering risks impacting the community.

Social infrastructure
essential services
community facilities
social networks

Individual wellbeing
life
health
psychology
assets
income

Business economy
primary industry
secondary industry
e d
iv
service sector

Environment
ch

natural resources
heritage
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 APPENDIX D:

Consequence scale

Ideally qualitative measures of consequence should reflect aspects of the specific emergency risk manage-
ment being conducted. The following table may provide a basis for development of measures appropriate
to community applications.

Consequence scale

Descriptor Description

insignificant No injuries or fatalities. No displacement of people or displacement

of only a small number of people for short duration. Little or no
personal support required (support not monetary or material).
Inconsequential or no damage. Little or no disruption to
community. No measurable impact on environment. Little or no
financial loss.

minor

d
Small number of injuries but no fatalities. First aid treatment
required. Some displacement of people (less than 24 hours).
e
Some personal support required. Some damage. Some disruption
(less than 24 hours). Small impact on environment with no lasting
iv
effects. Some financial loss.

moderate Medical treatment required but no fatalities. Some hospitalisation.

ch

Localised displacement of people who return within 24 hours.

Personal support satisfied through local arrangements. Localised
damage that is rectified by routine arrangements. Normal
community functioning with some inconvenience. Some impact on
environment with no long-term effect or small impact on
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environment with long-term effect. Significant financial loss.

major Extensive injuries, significant hospitalisation, large number

displaced (more than 24 hour’s duration). Fatalities. External
resources required for personal support. Significant damage that
requires external resources. Community only partially functioning,
some services unavailable. Some impact on environment with
long-term effects. Significant financial loss - some financial
assistance required.

catastrophic Large number of severe injuries. Extended and large numbers

requiring hospitalisation. General and widespread displacement
for extended duration. Significant fatalities. Extensive personal
support. Extensive damage. Community unable to function
without significant support. Significant impact on environment
and/or permanent damage.

Similarly the following table may provide a basis for development of measures appropriate to
organisational settings. These measures of consequence should also reflect aspects of the specific
emergency risk management being conducted.

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APPENDIX E:
Likelihood scale

As with the qualitative measures of consequence, descriptions of qualitative measures of likelihood ideally
should reflect aspects of the specific emergency risk management being conducted. The following listing,
however, may provide a basis for measures appropriate to some community applications.

Note that the term event in the table below relates to the likelihood of harmful consequences occurring rather
than the likelihood of the source of risk occurring, in keeping with a rigorous application of the emergency
risk management process.

Likelihood scale

Descriptor Description

almost certain is expected to occur in most circumstances; and/or high level of

recorded incidents; and/or strong anecdotal evidence; and/or a
strong likelihood the event will recur; and/ or great opportunity,

d
reason, or means to occur; may occur once every year or more

likely
e
will probably occur in most circumstances; and/or regular
recorded incidents and strong anecdotal evidence; and/or
iv
considerable opportunity, reason or means to occur; may occur
once every five years
ch

possible might occur at some time; and/or few, infrequent, random

recorded incidents or little anecdotal evidence; and/or very few
incidents in associated or comparable organisations, facilities or
communities; and/or some opportunity, reason or means to
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occur; may occur once every 20 years

unlikely is not expected to occur; and/or no recorded incidents or

anecdotal evidence; and/or no recent incidents in associated
organisations, facilities or communities; and/or little opportunity,
reason or means to occur; may occur once every 100 years

rare may occur only in exceptional circumstances; may occur once

every 500 or more years

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 APPENDIX F:
Risk level matrix

The qualitative risk analysis matrix published in the original Emergency risk management applications guide
is provided below.

In a qualitative assessment of risk levels, descriptors such as low, moderate, high and extreme may be used.
The relationship between consequence and likelihood used in each cell of the matrix should reflect a level
appropriate to the emergency risk management being conducted.

Risk level matrix: example 1

Likelihood Consequences

Insignificant Minor Moderate Major Catastrophic

d
almost certain high high extreme extreme extreme

likely moderate
e
high high extreme extreme
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possible low moderate high extreme extreme

unlikely low low moderate high extreme

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rare low low moderate high high

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Risk level matrix: example 2 (customised)

Likelihood Consequences

Insignificant Minor Moderate Major Catastrophic

almost certain moderate high extreme extreme extreme

likely low moderate high extreme extreme

possible low low moderate high extreme

unlikely low low moderate moderate high

rare low low low moderate high

Used by Bunbury Wellington Group of Councils in Western Australia.

54
 APPENDIX G:
Example of a Risk Register

This is adapted from the Tasmanian Emergency Risk Management Project.

Risk ID Risk statement Consequences Likelihood Level of Risk Initial

Priority
DC 02.01 There is a risk that a bushfire moderate possible high 3
within the municipal reserve
will cause significant damage
to the College of Advanced
Education timber buildings.

DC 02.02 There is a risk that a bushfire major unlikely high 1

within the municipal reserve
will cause the loss of life of
some Wilderness Road

d
residents

DC 02.05 There is a risk that a bushfire minor

e possible moderate 5
within the municipal reserve
will cause the loss of the
iv
orange bellied parrots’ native
habitat.

DC 04.13 There is a risk that severe moderate unlikely moderate 4

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snow storms will impact the

viability of the hinterland
tourism ventures.
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DC 08.01 There is a risk that a major major unlikely high 2

outbreak of foot and mouth
animal disease across the
municipality will cause the
regional economy to signifi-
cantly decline.

DC 22.02 There is a risk that structural minor possible moderate 6

fire will cause serious damage
to the timber houses of the
Wilderness Reserve.

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56
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Emergency Management Australia EMERGENCY RISK MANAGEMENT APPLICATIONS GUIDE – Manual 5
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www.ema.gov.au
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