Climate Change Impacts & Risk Management: A Guide For Business and Government

Climate Change Impacts
& Risk Management

A Guide for Business and Government
Published by the Australian Greenhouse Office, in the Department of the Environment and Heritage.
ISBN: 1 921120 56 8
© Commonwealth of Australia 2006

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IMPORTANT NOTICE - PLEASE READ

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indirectly through the use of, or reliance on, the contents of this publication.
Climate Change Impacts
& Risk Management
Prepared for the Australian Greenhouse Office,

Department of Environment and Heritage by:
Broadleaf Capital International
Marsden Jacob Associates
CONTENTS
PART A
A What This Guide Is About 7
1 Introduction 8
1.1 Purpose of this Guide 8
1.2 Scope of the Guide 9
1.3 Structure of the Guide 10
2 Why Assess the Risks of Climate Change? 11
2.1 Climate change and risk 11
2.2 Major aspects of climate change 12
2.3 Understanding the links between climate change and risk 16
3 Climate Change Risk Management: Framework and Overview 19
3.1 The risk management framework 19
3.2 Communication and consultation 20
3.3 Monitoring and review 20
3.4 Initial assessment and detailed analysis 21
3.5 Overview of initial assessment 22
PART B
B Conducting An Initial Assessment – The Workshop Process 25
4 Before the Workshop – Establish the Context 25
4.1 Overview 25
4.2 Climate change scenarios 25
4.3 Scope 30
4.4 Stakeholders 31
4.5 Evaluation framework 33
4.6 Key elements 41
4.7 Briefing note 42
5 At the Workshop – Identify, Analyse and Evaluate the Risks 43
5.1 Introduction 43
5.2 Risk workshop process overview 44
5.3 Identify risks 44
5.4 Analyse risks 45
5.5 Evaluate risks 46
5.6 Review the initial assessment 47
6 After the Workshop – Treat the Risks 48
PART C
C Other Considerations 53
7 If Detailed Analysis is Needed 53
7.1 Purpose and major aspects of detailed analysis 53
7.2 Addressing uncertainty associated with climate change 53
7.3 Understanding sensitivity to climate change 57
7.4 Assessing treatment options 58
8 Preparation, Planning and Integration 61
8.1 Preparation and planning 61
8.2 Integration with existing risk management practices 62
8.3 Integration with other activities 63
Checklist of recommendations and hints 66
References 69
Glossary 70
PART A
What This
Guide Is
About
1. Introduction
A 1.1 Purpose of this Guide The Guide is directed to:
The global climate is changing, and will continue > elected representatives and directors
1.1 to change, in ways that affect the planning

and day to day operations of businesses,
who wish to ensure their organisations
are aware of their risks from climate
government agencies and other organisations1. change impacts and that suitable
The manifestations of climate change include management responses are put in place;
higher temperatures, altered rainfall patterns,
> general management of organisations who
and more frequent or intense extreme events
need to understand the nature of the risks
such as heatwaves, drought, and storms.
associated with climate change impacts and
This document is a guide to integrating climate to know that these are identified and
change impacts into risk management and other incorporated into processes for management
strategic planning activities in Australian public and strategic planning; and
and private sector organisations. The purpose
> specialist risk managers or external risk
of this Guide is to assist Australian businesses
experts who must apply risk management
and organisations to adapt to climate change2.
frameworks to ensure their organisations or
those they are advising have identified and
considered the risks of climate change impacts.
The Guide is consistent with the Australian and

New Zealand Standard for Risk Management,
AS/NZS 4360:2004, which is widely used in the
public and private sectors to guide strategic,
operational and other forms of risk management.
The Guide describes how the routine application
of the Standard can be extended to include the
risks generated by climate change impacts.
1 We use the term ‘organisation’ in this Guide to include public sector agencies, semi-Government businesses, private companies and communities.
The general approach to climate change risk management is the same for all kinds of organisations, although there may be differences in detail.
2 It is not concerned with policy and other actions aimed at mitigating the extent or speed of climate change.
8 Climate Change Impacts & Risk Management

1.2 Scope of the Guide
A
The planning horizon suggested for this Guide
is, in the first instance, a period of approximately
The Guide provides a framework for managing the 25 years hence. This coincides with the strategic
increased risk to organisations due to climate
change impacts. The prime focus of the Guide
planning horizon of many organisations and
also with the investment period for many
1.2
is on the initial assessment and prioritisation long-lived assets. Users of the Guide may
of these risks. however, choose to adopt an even longer-term
The Guide aims to help businesses and focus - for example, climate scenarios can
organisations: be constructed for 50 and even 100 years into the
future using information that is easy to access.
> enumerate risks related to climate
change impacts; The Guide is not intended to address:
> prioritise risks that require further > risks associated with ‘normal’ variable
attention; and states of climate; nor
> establish a process for ensuring that these > measures and actions aimed at mitigating
higher priority risks are managed effectively. climate change itself, such as reducing
greenhouse emissions or introducing
In most instances this initial assessment emission trading schemes.
level of risk appraisal can be undertaken
by people with a sound professional knowledge This Guide was developed through a series of
of the relevant organisation, together with case studies with four partner organisations,
a general understanding of the likely directions including a large private company, a public
and magnitudes of climate change. utility, a government agency and a local
government. The recommendations in this
Climate change scenarios for risk assessment Guide are based largely on the experience
accompany this Guide. These scenarios have gained through these case studies.
been developed by CSIRO for the Australian
region using current best understanding of
climate change and are designed specifically
for use in the process of the initial strategic
assessment of risks arising from climate change.
The Australian Greenhouse Office will update
and extend these scenarios from time to time3.
3 Thus, most organisations seeking to apply this Guide to undertake an initial assessment of risks do not need to develop their own climate change
scenarios or to draw on external expert support on climate change science.
Climate Change Impacts & Risk Management 9

A
1.3
1.3 Structure of the guide
The Guide is separated into three parts.
Part A describes what the Guide is about. In

addition to the items covered in the Introduction,
it discusses why there is a need to assess climate
change risk (Chapter 2) and the fundamentals of
risk assessment and management (Chapter 3).
Part B outlines how to conduct an initial strategic

assessment centred on a workshop process.
Chapter 4 describes the tasks and necessary
steps that must be taken in preparation before
the workshop. Chapter 5 describes the workshop
process itself and how to effectively identify,
analyse and evaluate the risks to the
organisation arising from changes in climate.
Chapter 6 describes the actions and
responses required post-workshop in order
to treat the identified risks. It notes that the
‘treatment’ of risks may involve more detailed
analyses of some specific risks.
Part C deals with other considerations.

Chapter 7 briefly outlines some of the
considerations that arise if a more detailed
analysis of some specific risks is required.
Chapter 8 sets the risk assessment in the broader
context of strategic planning and management,
and therefore deals with the wider questions of
the preparation, planning and integration of the
risk assessment in an organisation’s normal
processes for planning and management.
A summary checklist of tasks and hints and a

glossary of climate change and risk management
terms are provided as appendices.

2. Why assess the risks
of climate change?
2.1 Climate change and risk4
A
Examples of the risks from climate change that
may be faced by Australian organisations or
Each year there are climatic events that communities are provided in Table 1 (over page).
represent risks to people and organisations.
These risks arise from ‘normal’ day-to-day, While experience in dealing with natural climate 2.1
seasonal, and year-to-year variability in climate variability may be valuable in formulating
as well as regional climate differences. strategies for dealing with climate change, there
are important differences. With climate change,
Most organisations have practices and strategies the timescale is longer, the affects may be more
in place to deal with this routine climate far reaching and the changes will not go away
variability. For these organisations, climate or be reversed in the foreseeable future.
variability will continue to raise challenges
and risks that have to be managed. As climate changes, human behaviour will need
to (and will) adapt to accommodate it – that is the
However, when managing climate variability natural tendency of people and organisations.
in the future, organisations cannot simply Effective adaptation however, requires an
rely on the assumption that the prevailing awareness of the risks posed by climate change
climate will be more or less the same as and, importantly, an understanding of the relative
it was over the past 50 or 100 years. significance of those risks. This Guide will assist
Climate change is likely to invalidate this organisations gain that awareness and
assumption, with changes in both average understanding.
conditions and the frequency and severity of
extreme climate events. We can expect to live and
operate in a climate that is warmer, with different
patterns of rainfall, less available moisture
retained in the soil and more severe storms – in
short, a climate that progressively will become
different from the current climate in many
ways, albeit with many similar but more acute
challenges and risks posed by climate variability.
Climate change is likely to have pervasive affects.

These affects will be felt in some way by every
person and every organisation, public or private,
and at all levels, from strategic management
to operational activities. The affects will impact
across environmental issues, economic
performance, social behaviour, infrastructure and
other aspects of human existence. Changes are
likely to develop gradually but could be abrupt.
4 As noted, users of the Guide do not need to have a detailed understanding of the science of climate change to undertake the risk assessment
process described in this Guide. Nevertheless, users may wish to refer to more detailed information on the science and impacts of climate
change. Information can be obtained from a number of sources including the Australian Greenhouse Office website, which lists numerous
publications relating to climate change science, impacts and adaptation in Australia. See http://www.greenhouse.gov.au/science/index.html.

A 2.2 Major aspects of climate change
Table 1: Examples – risks arising from climate change
1. For urban planners, more frequent There is strong and increasing scientific
2.2 heatwaves may increase the stress on

emergency services and hospitals while
consensus that the global climate is changing.
In 2001, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
more intense storms and rising sea Change (Houghton et al. 2001), acknowledged
levels may increase the vulnerability of as the most authoritative analysis of information
coastal housing and infrastructure.
on climate change, concluded that:
2. For the electricity sector, an increase in the
number of days over 35˚C and over 40˚C > the present global climate is significantly
would further stimulate air-conditioning warmer than at the beginning of the 20th
demand. Increased peak demands Century, with global temperatures having
on generation and distribution systems increased by around 0.6˚C;
will challenge system reliability. Since
investment needs are strongly driven > it is likely that 1990-1999 was the warmest
by peak demand rather than by average decade in the last 1,000 years, at least in
levels of consumption, the per unit cost the Northern Hemisphere;
of electricity can be expected to increase
> most of the observed warming in the last
in response to the increased peak demand.
50 years is attributable to human activities
3. For Australian agriculture, increases in – notably the release of greenhouse gases,
temperature and net reductions in average
such as carbon dioxide, methane and
rainfall across Southern and Eastern
nitrous oxide, into the atmosphere; and
Australia could make drought sequences
more common, while the impact of increased > due to the long atmospheric lifetime of major
temperatures would make them more greenhouse gases and time lags in the
damaging to plant and livestock viability ocean-atmosphere system, climate change
and production. To the extent that these will continue for decades or even centuries
increases in drought frequency or severity
to come, even if large scale action to mitigate
result from continental impacts, then
greenhouse gases was taken in the near future.
drought management based on shipping
livestock and fodder between areas of Scientific information compiled since 2001
localised drought may not be possible. confirms and strengthens the conclusions of the
4. For local government, climate change IPCC assessment and earlier assessments by the
may affect the economic base of the local CSIRO. Global temperatures, for example, have
region, for instance, by reducing the viability increased by around 0.4˚C since 1990 and 2005
of pasture growth and therefore carrying was the hottest year on record for Australia.
capacity or perhaps causing the southward
spread of pests and diseases previously
limited to tropical areas. Climate change
may also create new demands for services,
for instance, due to more frequent heatwave
conditions. Thus, some local governments
may be faced with a reduced ability to
raise income accompanied by increased
demands for services, ranging from
geriatric care to emergency services.

2.2.1 Temperature and sea level
A
All regions in Australia are projected to experience
similar increases in temperature, although inland
The IPCC (Houghton et al. 2001) projected
areas are likely to experience slightly higher
additional global warming of 1.4 to 5.8˚C
by 2100 relative to 19905. It also projected sea
temperature increases than coastal areas. Greater
warming is expected to occur in spring and
2.2
level rise of 9 to 88 cm by 2100, due mainly
summer than in winter.
to thermal expansion of sea water but also
from some melting of glaciers. 2.2.2 Rainfall
Temperature trends in Australia over the past Regional projections for rainfall are less certain
century are consistent with global trends in than for temperature. Average rainfall is expected
showing a more or less steady warming, totalling to decrease or remain about the same in most
0.8˚C over the last century. The warming trend of southern and eastern Australia but may increase
is observed across the continent, with the in northern-western Australia. However, when
exception of a small region in the northwest. increased evaporation due to higher temperatures
All climate modelling undertaken for Australia is taken into account, drier conditions are expected
projects future average temperature increases. even in places where there is more rain.
The range of projected temperature increase In Australia, rainfall trends over the past half
for Australia in the near term (to 2030) is century indicate a drying of the east coast,
about 0.5 to 2.0˚C above the 1990 level southwest and southeast of the continent
(CSIRO 2001), For the longer term (to 2070), and increases in rainfall over northwest and
the CSIRO (2001) projected temperature central Australia (Figure 1), although drying
increase of about 1 to 6˚C above 1990. is not as evident over a period of one hundred
years. These drying trends are consistent with
most climate model projections associated
with a warmer Australia in the 21st Century.
Figure 1: Trend in rainfall based on 1950 to 2003 (mm/10 yrs)
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
-5.0
-10.0
-15.0
-20.0
-30.0
-40.0
-50.0
Source: Australian Bureau of Meteorology
5 The range of projected warmings reflects both uncertainties in projections of future greenhouse gas missions and limitations in the ability of models
to represent how the climate will respond to these changes. These sources of uncertainty contribute in approximately equal measure to the range.

A 2.2.3 Extreme events
The historical evidence also indicates that abrupt
or stepped changes in rainfall and associated
Climate change is likely to result in increases to the
stream flows are possible. The south west
2.2 region of Western Australia is the best known
example of such a down-step (Figure 2).
frequency or intensity of extreme weather events
such as heat waves, tropical cyclones and storms.
The relationship between averages and extremes

Higher temperatures are likely to increase
is often non-linear. For example, a shift in
evaporation. The difference between potential
average temperature is likely to be associated
evaporation and rainfall gives net moisture or water
with much more significant changes in very
balance. Most parts of Australia have a net water
hot days. The disproportionate increase in
balance deficit – potential evaporation is greater
the frequency of extreme events is not limited
than rainfall. Projections by the CSIRO (2001)
to the frequency of very hot days but could
indicate that in all regions of Australia annual
occur with many other climate extremes.
water balance is likely to decrease, regardless
Figure 3 illustrates the proportionally greater
of whether rainfall increases or decreases.
impact on building damages from a relatively
Average decreases in water balance range
smaller increase in peak wind gust speed.
from 15 to 150 mm by 2030 and 40 to 500 mm
by 2070, with the greatest decreases occurring In some instances the frequency of extreme
in spring. This means reduced run-off and greater events could increase even when there are
moisture stress for most parts of Australia. small declines in averages – this is likely to be
the case for rainfall (Risbey et al. 2006).
Figure 2: Abrupt changes to dam inflows, Perth

1000
Note:
Total Annual Inflow to Perth Dams (GL)
900
A year is taken as May to April and labelled year
is the start (winter) of year
800
700
600
500
50% reduction
400 in streamflow
300
200
100
0
1911
1915
1919
1923
1927
1931
1935
1939
1943
1947
1951
1955
1959
1963
1967
1971
1975
1979
1983
1987
1991
1995
1999
Inflow 1911 to 1974 (338 GL) 1975 to 2002 (164 GL) 1997 to 2002 (115 GL)
Source: Water Corporation, Western Australia

A
Examples of how climate change could
affect climate extremes are:
> more frequent very hot days;
> more frequent and longer droughts;

2.2
> more frequent and larger floods;
> more frequent and more intense heavy rain;
> more intense tropical cyclones;
> more intense storms;
> higher peak wind speeds; and
> higher storm surges.
Figure 3: Non-linear damage functions from extreme events

700
600
% increase in Damages
500
400 25% increase in peak gust causes

650% increase in building damages
300
200
100
0
Under 20 Knots 20-40 Knots 40-50 Knots 50-60 Knots
Hazard Cause of Change in Hazard Resulting Change in Damage/Loss

Windstorm Doubling of windspeed Four-fold increase in damages
2.2oC mean temperature increase Increase of 5-10% in
hurricane wind speeds
Floods 25% increase in 30 minute precipitation Flooding return period reduced
from 100 years to 17 years
Bushfire 1oC mean temperature increase 28% increase in wildfires
Doubling of CO2 143% increase in catastrophic wildfires
Source: The Impact of Climate Change on Insurance against Catastrophes, Tony Coleman, Insurance
Australia Group, 2003. Presentation to the Institute of Actuaries of Australia.

A 2.3 Understanding the links between In order to assess the risks of climate change,
climate change and risk users of this Guide should understand the causal
links in this chain as they affect their organisation.
2.3 2.3.1 Overview
2.3.2 Impacts of climate change
The risks of climate change to an organisation
– for instance, to its reputation as a reliable Table 2 illustrates the link between changes
provider of products or services or its ability to specific climate variables (likely to occur in many
to meet its statutory mandate – do not arise parts of Australia) and resulting bio-physical
directly from changes to climate and climate and social impacts. Some impacts are linked to
related variables per se, but from a chain of changes to more than one climate variable or
consequences like those illustrated in Figure 4. derive from other impacts. For example, droughts
are linked not only to a decrease in rainfall but
These consequences may affect directly the also to warmer temperatures, which, for example,
organisation’s capacity to serve its customers exacerbated the severity of the 2002 Australian
or clients or affect other stakeholders of the drought (Risbey et al., 2003; Nicholls, 2004).
organisation.
Figure 4: Links between climate change and risk
Climate variable
(e.g. temperature, rainfall, storminess)
Change to climate variable

(e.g. more very hot days)
Impact
(e.g. higher electricity demand for cooling)
Risk
(e.g. inability to meet peak demand)

A
Table 2: Impacts associated with changes to climate variables
Change to Examples of impacts

climate variable
Higher mean > Increased evaporation and decreased water balance.
2.3
temperatures > Increased severity of droughts (see below).
> Reduced alpine winter snow cover.
> Reduced range of alpine ecosystems and species.
> Increased stress to coral reefs.
Higher maximum > Increased incidence of death and serious illness,
temperatures, particularly in older age groups.
more hot days and > Increased heat stress in livestock and wildlife.
more heat waves
> Increased risk of damage to some crops.
> Increased forest fire danger (frequency and intensity).
> Increased electric cooling demand and reduced energy supply reliability.
Higher minimum > Decreased cold-related human morbidity and mortality.
temperatures, > Decreased risk of damage to some crops and increased risk to others.
fewer cold days
> Extended range and activity of some pest and disease vectors.
and frost days
> Reduced heating energy demand.
Decrease in > Decreased average runoff, streamflow.
precipitation > Decreased water quality.
> Decreased water resources.
> Decrease in hydro-power potential.
> Impacts on rivers and wetland ecosystems.
Increased severity > Decreased crop yields and rangeland productivity.
of drought > Increased damage to foundations caused by ground shrinkage.
> Increased forest fire danger.
Decreased > Increased forest fire danger.
relative humidity > Increased comfort of living conditions at high temperatures.
More intense rain > Increased flood, landslide and mudslide damage.
> Increased flood runoff.
> Increased soil erosion.
> Increased pressure on disaster relief systems.
Increased > Increased risk to human lives and health.
intensity of > Increased storm surge leading to coastal flooding, coastal
cyclones and erosion and damage to coastal infrastructure.
storms
> Increased damage to coastal ecosystems.
Increased mean > Salt water intrusion into ground water and coastal wetlands.
sea level > Increased coastal flooding (particularly when combined with storm surge).

A 2.3.3 Risks to an organisation arising Risk assessment may involve quantitative or
from climate change qualitative techniques and information to describe
the nature of risks. Qualitative techniques are
2.3 Users of this Guide are ultimately seeking to
identify those activities and assets that are
particularly useful in circumstances, such as with
climate change, where there is uncertainty about
at risk from a changing climate. In order to do
likelihoods or consequences. Notwithstanding
so they must:
sources of uncertainty, the initial assessment
1. consider (based on their professional process discussed in Part B of this Guide will
knowledge) which activities and assets of provide a comprehensive and rigorous means
the organisation are sensitive to climate of identifying and prioritising risks of climate
change; and change. The process requires only standard
climate scenarios, a general understanding of
2. form a judgement as to whether climate change
the impacts of climate change, comprehensive
is a significant source of risk to the assets
understanding of the business or organisation
and activities relative to other sources of risk.
and sound professional judgement.
This judgement will be reached with reference
to the objectives and success criteria of the Some users of the Guide, having undertaken
organisation (discussed in detail in Part B). the initial risk assessment process, will decide
that there are a small number of risks to their
Risk is generally defined as a combination of the
organisation that warrant further analysis in
likelihood of an occurrence and the consequence
order to reduce uncertainties. General issues
of that occurrence.
surrounding this more detailed analysis are
In practice, neither likelihoods nor consequences discussed further in Chapter 7.
are known with certainty. In the context of climate
change risk assessment, uncertainty arises
because, although we can be confident the
climate is changing, we do not know precisely
the magnitude of the changes or their associated
impacts and in some regions it is not clear
whether rainfall will increase or decrease. As well,
uncertainty may arise because decision makers
do not know the exact point (or threshold) at
which a climate change impact has a particular
level of consequence for their organisation.
For the majority of users of this Guide, these

sources of uncertainty will not be so great
as to prevent them understanding, at least
qualitatively, the likelihood and consequences
(and therefore risks) to their organisation
that are associated with climate change.

3. Climate change
risk management: framework and overview
3.1 The risk management framework
The recommended framework for risk
management is provided by the Australian
A
3.1
and New Zealand Standard AS/NZS 4360
Risk Management (Figure 5).
Figure 5: Steps in the risk management process
COMMUNICATE AND CONSULT
ESTABLISH IDENTIFY ANALYSE EVALUATE TREAT

THE CONTEXT THE RISKS THE RISKS THE RISKS THE RISKS
Objectives What can Review controls Evaluate risks Identify options
Stakeholders happen Likelihoods Rank risks Select the best
Criteria Consequences Screen minor Develop plans
Key elements How could it Level of risk risks Implement
Climate scenarios happen
MONITOR AND REVIEW
Following is a summary of each step in this process. Identify the risks by:
Establish the context by: > describing and listing how climate
changes impact on each of the key
> defining the business or organisation to be
elements of the organisation.
assessed and the scope of the assessment;
Analyse the risks by:
> clarifying explicitly the objectives
of the organisation; > reviewing the controls, management
regimes and responses already in place
> identifying the stakeholders and
to deal with each specific risk;
their objectives and concerns;
> assessing the consequences of each risk
> establishing success criteria against
against the organisation’s objectives and
which risks to the organisation’s
success criteria, taking into account the
objectives can be evaluated;
extent and effectiveness of existing controls;
> developing key elements of the organisation
> forming a judgement about the likelihood
(such as its major areas of responsibility)
of each identified risk leading to the
as a means of structuring the process; and
consequences identified; and
> determining relevant climate change
> determining the level of risk to the
scenarios for the assessment.
organisation, for each of the climate
change scenarios used in the analysis.

A
Evaluate the risks by: With both the effectiveness of the initial
implementation and the long term quality of
> re-affirming the judgements and estimates;
the process in mind, it is important to pay close
3.2 > ranking the risks in terms of their severity; attention to the team chosen to participate in
the process. Reasons to include someone in the
> screening out minor risks that can be set
team may be that he/she:
aside and which would otherwise distract
the attention of management; and > is a source of relevant information about the
organisation’s susceptibility to climate change,
> identifying those risks for which more
providing climate change expertise or an
detailed analysis is recommended.
understanding of how the organisation’s
Treat the risks by: activities will be affected by climate change;
> identifying relevant options to manage or adapt > is the organisational owner of important
to the risks and their consequences; and functions or assets;
> selecting the best options, incorporating these > has the authority to act on or sanction
into forward plans and implementing them. action on treatment requirements; and
> is required to ensure that the process itself

3.2 Communication and consultation proceeds smoothly with personnel and other
resources being made available as required
Communication and consultation are key
to participate in the process and manage the
components of any risk management process
administration of the exercise.
and are required at each step. Success relies
on achieving a high level of creative input and
involving all parties with a role to play in identifying, 3.3 Monitoring and review
assessing and managing climate change risks.
The outputs of all steps of the risk management
In both the planning and execution of the risk
process must be kept under review so that,
management process it is important to ensure
as circumstances change and new information
that all those who need to be involved are kept
comes to hand, plans can be maintained
informed of developments in the understanding
and kept up to date.
of risks and the measures taken to deal with them.
Several aspects of the monitoring and review
At the very beginning, it will be necessary to engage
activity are important, including:
personnel in the process and help them understand
the need for climate change risk management > keeping the analysis and evaluation up to
to become part of routine management activity. date, including updating climate change
The communication and consultation process will scenarios or incorporating new information
contribute towards the long term development about climate change impacts;
of risk management and help to establish
> reviewing progress on actions flowing from
a foundation for its continuing maintenance.
the process, including implementing treatment
actions to reduce risks or undertaking further
and more detailed analyses; and

A
> ensuring that the process itself is implemented 1. An initial assessment identifies and sifts
in a timely and cost-effective fashion with risks quickly, followed by treatment planning
documents produced, meetings held, plans and implementation for those risks that
reviewed and so on. The focus of this Guide is
firmly on the framework and process for an
clearly require it. 3.4
2. Detailed analysis is used where additional
initial strategic assessment.
information is needed to determine whether
treatment is required or what form of
3.4 Initial assessment and treatment to adopt.
detailed analysis
Essentially, the same process as outlined
To allow effort to be directed towards the highest in 3.1 above should be followed in both the
priority issues, a two-stage approach to risk initial assessment and detailed analysis
assessment is recommended to users of this Guide. stages of the process (Figure 6).
Figure 6: Initial assessment and detailed analysis
INITIAL ASSESSMENT
ESTABLISH
IDENTIFY ANALYSE EVALUATE TREAT
THE
THE RISKS THE RISKS THE RISKS THE RISKS
CONTEXT
MONITOR AND REVIEW MONITOR AND REVIEW
INITIAL TREAT
DECISION NOW
DETAILED ANALYSIS
COLLECT MORE
MORE DETAILED
INFORMATION ANALYSIS
NEEDED
ESTABLISH
IDENTIFY ANALYSE EVALUATE TREAT
THE
THE RISKS THE RISKS THE RISKS THE RISKS
CONTEXT
MONITOR AND REVIEW

A 3.5 Overview of initial assessment An initial assessment is a cost effective, yet
rigorous method of identifying and appraising
The stage at which most users of this Guide will risks – whether new or pre-existing. The use
3.5 be able to make the greatest gain with the least
effort is in the initial assessment. This is where,
of an initial assessment stage is intended to:
with relatively simple summary climate > capitalise on any immediate insights
change information and a straightforward risk arising from a simple analysis where,
management approach, significant insights may once a risk is documented, it is clear
be generated leading to early and effective action. that it needs to be addressed through
adaptation or other treatment measures;
Figure 7: The initial assessment is centred on a workshop process
Decision to BEFORE AT AFTER

assess climate WORKSHOP WORKSHOP WORKSHOP
change risks
ESTABLISH THE CONTEXT IDENTIFY THE RISKS TREAT THE RISKS

Obtain climate change scenarios
Define scope
ANALYSE THE RISKS
Identify stakeholders
Agree evaluation framework
> Objectives, success, criteria,
EVALUATE THE RISKS
consequence scales
> Likelihood scales
> Risk-priority levels
Define key elements
Incorporate into
strategic direction
MONITOR AND REVIEW operating strategies
INITIAL TREAT
DECISION NOW
MORE
DETAILED
ANALYSIS
NEEDED

A
> permit issues not requiring any further
consideration to be set aside as early as
possible; and
> allow for more detailed technical analysis 3.5

of risks to determine if they require attention
or to determine the most effective treatment.
Experience, both in preparing this Guide and in

other risk assessment work, shows that with
careful preparation, a workshop is generally
the most efficient method for undertaking the
initial assessment. Figure 7 (see opposite)
recasts the standard risk management process
diagram, giving primacy to a workshop as the
method for identifying, analysing and evaluating
climate change risks in the initial assessment.
The initial assessment process effectively

falls into three overall stages:
> Before holding a workshop, it is essential

to establish the context of the initial
assessment process including by: determining
climate change scenarios that will be used
in the assessment; defining the scope of
the assessment; considering stakeholders;
and establishing the evaluation framework.
> The risk workshop is a focused activity designed

to identify, analyse and evaluate risks so that
the highest priority issues can be addressed
with an appropriate level of effort and urgency.
> After the workshop, the most severe risks can

be tackled with treatments to reduce their
likelihood or deal with the consequences of the
risks if they do arise.
Part B sets out, step by step, these stages of the

initial assessment process.

PART B
Conducting
An Initial
Assessment
-The Workshop Process
4. Before the workshop
—establish the context
B
4.1
4.1 Overview
The context for risk management sets up a
framework for identifying and analysing risks.
4.2 Climate change scenarios
To manage the risks of climate change it is
necessary to define how climate is projected
It places the assessment on a clear foundation (or assumed) to change in the future. This is
so that everyone works from a common achieved by using climate change scenarios.
understanding of the scope of the exercise, how
Climate change scenarios provide a plausible
risks are to be rated and how the analysis is to
summary of the changes to climate variables
be approached.
that could apply in your geographical region and
Establishing the context consists of five parts: timescale of interest6. Scenarios can provide
a consistent and efficient basis for assessing
> Climate change scenarios – defining how the
climate-related risks across different organisations
climate will be assumed to change in the future.
without affecting the integrity of the analysis.
> Scope – defining the scope of the assessment
A set of standard climate change scenarios is
including activities to be covered, geographic
available in an accompanying volume to this Guide.
boundaries and the time horizon.
These scenarios have been developed by CSIRO
> Stakeholders – determining whose views need to reflect broad regional differences in climate and
to be taken into account, who can contribute alternative paths of projected climate changes.
to the analysis and who needs to know its Scenarios will be updated from time to time
outcomes. as new climate change information becomes
available; the latest version of the scenarios can
> Evaluation framework – defining how risks
be obtained from the Australian Greenhouse
will be evaluated by clarifying the objectives
Office website. However, users of the Guide should
and success criteria for the organisation
note that small changes in climate projections
and establishing scales for measuring
are unlikely to make a significant difference
consequences, likelihoods and risk priorities.
at the initial assessment stage of the risk
> Key elements – creating a framework that assessment process.
will assist in identifying risks by breaking
Table 3 (see page 28) contains information that
down the organisation’s concerns into
may be used to construct a climate change
a number of areas of focus and relating them
scenario such as those used in developing and
to the climate scenarios.
testing this Guide.
The participants in a climate change risk
management exercise must have a common view
of all these matters for the exercise to operate
efficiently, be repeatable from one review to the
next and for the outputs to be communicated
clearly to others.
6 Refer to the Glossary for a definition of ‘climate change scenario’.

The scenarios generally provide information
on the direction of change in climate variables
using a time horizon of approximately 25 years.
Where feasible, estimates of the magnitude
B
4.2
of change to those variables are also provided.
In practice, to make a climate change scenario
meaningful to your organisation it is useful
to accompany the bare ‘factual’ information
of the scenario with a ‘word picture’ outlining the
conditions that would prevail in each scenario.
While the majority of users of this Guide will find

the standard scenarios entirely suitable for the
identification and assessment of climate-related
risks in the initial assessment stage of the process,
there is nothing that precludes you from developing
tailored scenarios or extending the standard
scenarios to include additional climate variables7.
A general rule is that only a limited number of

scenarios should be used. One or two scenarios
covering the major plausible climate changes will
generally be sufficient. This rule was confirmed
during the case studies that tested the application
of the Guide. The rule applies regardless of whether
standard scenarios or tailored scenarios are used.
7 If users of this Guide choose not to use the standard scenarios, it is important to note that the information on the climate features listed
in a scenario should, as a minimum, include information on the direction of change and information on the timing and magnitude of
change and correlations between changes in two or more parameters. All of the information provided in a scenario should be:
− plausible (i.e. it should be within the range of change indicated by best available scientific information);
− internally consistent (i.e. a change indicated in a scenario to one climate feature should not be contradicted
by a change indicated to another climate feature, also based on the best available scientific information);
− unidirectional (i.e. information presented on the climate feature should indicate that it will
either increase or decrease under the scenario, but not both).

B
4.2
Change in climate for Victoria
by 2030, relative to 1990a
Victoria is likely to become warmer, with more Research experiments have shown grain
hot days and fewer cold nights. For example, yield increases under elevated atmospheric
the number of days above 35˚C could average carbon dioxide concentrations. However, it is
10-16 in Melbourne (now 9) and 36-50 in Mildura not known whether this will translate to field
(now 33), while the number of days below 0˚C conditions in Australia due to water and nutrient
in Mildura could average 1-4 in (now 6)1. limitations and elevated temperatures.
Increased peak summer energy demand Low to moderate warming may also help plant
for cooling is likely, with reduced energy growth especially frost sensitive crops such
demand in winter for heating2. as wheat, but more hot days and a decline in
rainfall or irrigation could reduce yields. Warmer
Warming and population growth may increase winters can reduce the yield of stone fruits that
annual heat-related deaths in those aged require winter chilling and livestock would be
over 65, e.g. from 289 deaths at present in adversely affected by greater heat stress8.
Melbourne to 582-604 by 2020 and 980-1318
by 20503. Higher temperatures may also In forestry, the CO2 benefits may be
contribute to the spread of vector-borne, offset by decreased rainfall, increased
water-borne and food-borne diseases. bushfires and changes in pests9.
Water resources are likely to be further stressed In cities, changes in average climate and
due to projected growth in demand and climate- sea-level could affect building design,
driven changes in supply for irrigation, cities, standards and performance, energy and
industry and environmental flows. A decline in water demand, and coastal planning10.
annual rainfall with higher evaporative demand
Increases in extreme weather events are
would lead to a tendency for less run-off into
likely to lead to increased flash flooding,
rivers, i.e. a decline of 0-45% in 29 Victorian
strains on sewerage and drainage systems,
catchments4. For Melbourne, average streamflow
greater insurance losses, possible black-outs,
is likely to drop 3-11% by 2020 and 7-35% by 20505.
and challenges for emergency services.
Droughts are likely to become more frequent 1 Suppiah et al. 2006;
and more severe, with greater fire risk, 2 Howden and Crimp 2001;
3 McMichael et al. 2003;
e.g. by 2020, the number of days with very 4 Jones and Durack 2005;
high or extreme fire danger could average 5 Howe et al. 2005;
6 Hennessy et al. 2006;
10-11 in Melbourne (now 9), 16-18 in Laverton
7 Hennessy et al. 2003;.
(now 15) and 84-91 in Mildura (now 80)6. 8 Howden et al. 2003;.
9 Howden et al. 1999;
A 10-40% reduction in snow cover is 10 PIA 2004.
a These scenarios should not be used in detailed impact
likely by 20207, with impacts on ski
assessments (consult CSIRO for model specific scenarios);
resorts and alpine ecosystems.

B
Table 3: Change in climate for Victoria by 2030
Feature Low Global Warming Scenario High Global Warming Scenario
Estimate of Uncertainty Estimate of Uncertainty 4.2

Change Change
Annual average temperature +0.5˚C ±0.2˚C +1.1˚C ±0.4˚C
Average sea level rise +3 cm +17 cm
Annual average rainfall -1.5% ±5% -3.5% ±11%
Seasonal average rainfall Summer 0% ±6.5% 0% ±15%
Autumn -1.5% ±5% -3.5% ±11%
Winter -1.5% ±5% -3.5% ±11%
Spring -5% ±5% -11% ±11%
Annual average potential evaporation +2.2% ±1.1% +5.0% ±2.5%
Annual average number of hot +1 +10 days
days (›35˚C) (near coast)
+20 days (inland)
Annual average number cold nights (‹0˚C) -1 day -10 days (inland)
-20 days
(highlands)
Annual average number of very high & +1 day +11 days
extreme forest fire danger daysb
Extreme daily wind speed (95th percentile) 0.0 ±1.6% 0.0% ±3.7%
Extreme daily rainfall intensity (1 in 20 year event) c

+5% +70%
Carbon dioxide concentration +73ppm +102ppm
b % changes for forest fire danger are for 2020 (2030 changes unavailable);
c Results for 2050 (changes for 2030 not available).
Recommendations
Using climate change scenarios
1. Apply climate change scenarios as the basis 3. Limit the number of scenarios used to
for assessing risks in the initial assessment one or two.
stage of the risk assessment process. Standard
4. More specific and detailed climate change
scenarios accompany this Guide, and will be
information than is provided in the
updated periodically as new information about
standard climate change scenarios may
climate projections becomes available.
need to be used for detailed analysis.
2. When applying climate change scenarios to
the risk assessment ensure that workshop
participants are provided with both quantitative
and descriptive information on the scenarios.

B 4.3 Scope Table 4: Examples – scope definitions
It is important to be clear what the initial Scope definition for a public utility
4.3 assessment is to encompass and what

it is to exclude. The scope description
> The process will consider all matters
associated with maintaining current
should cover:
operations and meeting future requirements
> the operational activities to be included, within existing service level agreements and
which may be everything an organisation regulations, including the management,
does or a specific subset of its activities; forecasting and planning functions required
to direct efforts to meet future requirements
> the geographical area covered by
and the operation of regulatory price setting
these activities;
mechanisms for the next 25 years.
> the organisational boundaries of the Scope definition for a Government
assessment; and agency with policy responsibility
> the time horizon to be covered, which has > The process will consider the activities of all
a strong bearing on the definition of climate organisations falling within the Department’s
change scenarios. responsibility, and the Department’s
capacity to deliver the outputs expected
Table 4 provides some examples.
by Government over the next 25 years
An organisation with geographically Scope definition for the State operations
or operationally diverse activities may choose of an Australian manufacturing business
to break them into sections for the assessment.
Some care is required when doing this to ensure > The process will consider all current State
that sections and activities that only make sense operations as well as any developments
across the entire organisation are not overlooked. that have been approved for the next
Ways to deal with the scope of the analysis that 25 years, including dependencies
are likely to meet most requirements include: on interstate raw material suppliers and
the worldwide market for our products.
> one exercise that covers the entire scope
of the organisation or all of that part Recommendations
of the organisation under consideration; or When defining the scope
> a number of separate exercises that cover 5. Try to address the entire scope of the
distinct geographical or operational parts organisation’s operations in one assessment
of the entire scope, possibly with a further exercise if you can.
high level exercise spanning the entire scope
6. If it is necessary to split the scope into parts,
to deal with strategic and organisation wide
look carefully for potential gaps between
issues, carefully defined to ensure that,
the parts and consider whether you need
taken together, they leave nothing out.
a separate, high level assessment to deal
with issues that are not confined to one area.
7. Make sure the geographical area,

organisational boundaries, operational
boundaries and timeframe are specified
explicitly.

4.4 Stakeholders
Stakeholders are any individuals, groups
or organisations whom it is useful to take into
B
4.4
account to achieve a successful outcome for your
organisation. These will usually include internal
groups such as the executive management,
staff and workforce, as well as obvious external
groups such as local communities, suppliers,
associates, clients or customers, competitors,
and legal or regulatory authorities.
Many people may have or feel that they have

a stake in your organisation. Some will be able
to exercise direct influence while others may
make their presence felt through indirect pressure
in the public arena, perhaps via the media.
Stakeholders may include:
> customers or clients;
> individuals or groups living or operating

in your region or neighbouring regions
who may be affected by your activities;
> visitors and others who make use of natural

and other resources that you rely upon
or are required to maintain and protect;
> your organisation’s personnel;
> suppliers and service providers;
> associates and partners;
> regulatory agencies and authorities; and
> political and special interest groups who

may share a common interest in your
activities for reasons of policy or in
pursuit of independent agendas.
Stakeholder analysis is typically concerned with

identifying the main stakeholder groups and
what they wish to happen.

B
Table 5: Example – stakeholder summary
for a local government authority
4.4 Stakeholder Summary of objectives

and concerns
Recommendations
When defining the stakeholders
Residents Maintenance of employment
within the opportunities, protection of the 8. Start with broad groups of stakeholders
authority’s environment, local authority rather than small groups or individuals.
region service levels and containment 9. Break groups down if they contain two or
of rates and other charges. more distinctly separate sets of motivations
Businesses Quality of infrastructure, and concerns.
based in or availability of staff and
10. Group together stakeholders with essentially
operating in customers, local authority
the same motivations and concerns.
the region service levels and containment
of rates and other charges. 11. Think widely about anyone who is not
Visitors to Availability of services, quality directly involved but could have an affect
the region of infrastructure, accessibility, on the success of your organisation.
protection of the environment.
12. List the stakeholders with a short summary
Local Maintenance of employment of their motivations and concerns.
authority and earning levels,
workforce conditions of employment.
State and Compliance with policies
Federal that overlap jurisdictions.
Government
agencies
Table 6: Example – stakeholder summary

for a transport company
Stakeholder Summary of objectives

and concerns
Customers Prices, service levels, safety,
comfort and reliability
Shareholders Earnings, long term
viability of the business
Workforce Rates of pay, conditions,
security of employment
Suppliers Prices, levels of activity,
stability of demand
Regulators Compliance with standards
and other regulations

4.5 Evaluation framework
There are three components of the framework
used to evaluate risks in the initial assessment:
4.5.1 Objectives, success criteria
and consequence scales
An organisation’s objectives are linked into
B
4.5
the risk management process via criteria for
> scales to describe the level of consequence
measuring success. Success criteria are essentially
of a risk if it should happen;
a summary of the organisation’s long term
> a scale to describe the likelihood of objectives. By combining success criteria with
suffering that level of consequence; and a consequence scale it is possible to describe the
level of consequence to an organisation of a risk
> a means of assigning a priority rating,
associated with climate change, should it happen.
given this consequence and likelihood.
Table 7 (over page) provides examples
If your organisation has an existing risk
of success criteria for different types of
management framework, use this or stay
organisations. Experience shows that an
as close to it as possible, so that the output
organisation’s long term success can usually
of the climate analysis is comparable with
be summarised in a small number of criteria,
other risk assessments you carry out.
usually four to six. They will generally cover:
> financial or economic matters;
> outputs, service or product delivery;
> regulatory or ethical compliance; and
> image, reputation and public relations.
Most organisations will be able to construct

a set of success criteria around these four
themes. To check if your set of success criteria
is adequate, consider two questions:
1. If we are successful against all of these

criteria, is there any way we could still fail
to achieve overall success for our organisation?
If so, something may be missing from the set.
2. Do any of these criteria only matter because

they affect one of the others? For example, the
level of income generated is usually only a
component of budget compliance or profit
generation rather than being a key issue in its
own right; if so, it may be possible to combine
some criteria.

B
Table 7: Examples – success criteria
Success criteria for a local authority: Once the success criteria have been established,
4.5 > Maintain public safety it is necessary to describe how badly a risk would
affect any one of the criteria. This is usually
> Protect and enhance the local economy
achieved by defining a five point scale that
> Protect existing community structures describes levels of consequences for each
and the lifestyle enjoyed by the people criterion ranging from:
of the region
> catastrophic, the level that would constitute a
> Sustain and enhance the physical and
complete failure;
natural environment
> Ensure sound public administration and to
governance
> insignificant, a level that would attract no
Success criteria for a public utility: attention or resources.
> Maintain service quality
Scales like those in Table 8, Table 9 and Table 10
> Ensure reliable service delivery are proven mechanisms for describing the
> Manage interaction with other providers consequences of risks. Note that they contain
to achieve cost-effective operation no firm numbers but use simple descriptions
> Ensure that community and regulatory that are understood by the participants in the
standards of administration are met process. There may be occasions where numbers
> Maintain and strengthen community are appropriate, such as in describing levels
confidence in the organisation of financial loss, but even here descriptions
of how the organisation would react may
Success criteria for a business:
be adequate: for example, Catastrophic may
> Build shareholder value equate to closure of operations or replacement
> Achieve planned growth of the senior management team, Major to having
> Protect the supply chain to carry a financial burden over into future years,
> Maintain required human resources Moderate to having to curtail planned expenditure
in the short to medium term and so on.
> Ensure regulatory and legislative compliance

B
Table 8: Example – consequence scales for a local authority
SUCCESS CRITERIA
Public safety Local economy Community Environment & Public
4.5
Rating
& growth & lifestyle sustainability administration
Large Regional The region would Major widespread Public

numbers decline leading be seen as very loss of administration
Catastrophic
of serious to widespread unattractive, environmental would fall into

injuries or business failure, moribund and amenity and decay and cease
loss of lives loss of employment unable to support progressive to be effective
and hardship its community irrecoverable
environmental
damage
Isolated Regional Severe and Severe loss of Public
instances stagnation such widespread decline environmental administration
of serious that businesses in services and amenity and would struggle to
Major
injuries or are unable quality of life within a danger of remain effective

loss of lives to thrive and the community continuing and would be seen
employment does environmental to be in danger of
not keep pace with damage failing completely
population growth
Small Significant General Isolated but Public
numbers general reduction appreciable decline significant administration
Moderate
of injuries in economic in services instances of would be under

performance environmental severe pressure
relative to current damage that might on several fronts
forecasts be reversed with
intensive efforts
Serious near Individually Isolated but Minor instances Isolated instances
misses or significant but noticeable of environmental of public
minor injuries isolated areas examples of damage that could administration
Minor
of reduction decline in services be reversed being under

in economic severe pressure
performance
relative to current
forecasts
Appearance Minor shortfall There would be No environmental There would be
of a threat relative to current minor areas in damage minor instances
Insignificant
but no actual forecasts which the region of public

harm was unable to administration
maintain its being under
current services more than usual
stress but it could
be managed

B
Table 9: Example - consequence scales for a public utility
SUCCESS CRITERIA
4.5 Service quality Service delivery Interaction with Administration Community

Rating
other providers confidence
Services would Services would The organisation Administration of There would

Catastrophic
fall well below be incorrectly would be in the organisation be widespread

acceptable targeted, delivered conflict with other would be seen to concern about our
standards and late or not at providers and this have failed and in capacity to serve
this would be all in a large would directly need of external the community
clear to all number of cases affect services intervention
The general public There would be The effort of Administration of There would
would regard the isolated instances managing the organisation be serious
organisation’s of services being relations with would be seen expressions of
Major
services as incorrectly other providers to be deficient concern about our

unsatisfactory targeted, delivered would drain and in need of capacity to serve
late or not resources and external review the community
delivered at all badly degrade
service delivery
Services would There would Unnecessary Administrative There would
be regarded as be isolated overheads arising failings might not be isolated
barely satisfactory but important from relations with be widely seen but expressions of
Moderate
by the general instances of other providers they would cause concern about our
public and the services being would be a drain concern if they capacity to serve
organisation’s poorly targeted on resources but came to light the community
personnel or delivered late the public would
be unaware of this
Services would There would be Unnecessary There would There would be
be regarded as isolated instances overheads in be some some concern
satisfactory by of service delivery dealing with other administrative about our capacity
the general public failing to meet providers would shortcomings to serve the
Minor
but personnel acceptable absorb some effort demanding community but

would be aware standards to a but the public attention but it would not be
of deficiencies limited extent would be unaware they would not considered serious
of this and would be regarded as
not be affected serious failures
Minor deficiencies Minor technical Minor unnecessary There would be There would be
Insignificant
in principle that shortcomings in overheads arising minor areas of minor concerns

would pass service delivery from relations with concern but they but they would
without comment would attract other providers but would not demand attract no attention
no attention no material effect special attention

B
Table 10: Example - consequence scales for a commercial business
SUCCESS CRITERIA
Shareholder Growth Supply chain Human Compliance 4.5
Rating
value resources
The business The business Loss of a key Severe shortages Obvious and proven
would have to would contract source of supply of personnel breaches of legal
Catastrophic
be wound up markedly placing or distribution or workplace and regulatory

its long term channel, disruption would requirements
viability in question threatening make it difficult to with the prospect
the business sustain operations of corporate or
individual penalties
Shareholder The business Disruption of a key Operations would Significant
value would would contract and source of supply be severely amounts of
decline markedly require significant or distribution affected by management and
Major
and necessitate remedial action channel, having shortages of advisers’ effort

significant a serious effect personnel or poor would be required
remedial action on the business industrial relations to answer charges
of compliance
failures
Shareholder value There would Components of the Parts of the Formal action
would stagnate be no growth supply chain would workforce and would be required
require more than staff team would to answer
Moderate
normal levels require more than perceived breaches

of management normal levels or charges of
attention to protect of management compliance failure
the business attention to protect
the business
Shareholder value Growth would be Isolated difficulties Isolated personnel Minor perceived
would increase achieved but it would arise in the shortages or or actual breaches
Minor
but fail to meet would fail to meet supply chain but poor workplace of compliance
expectations expectations would be resolved relations would would be resolved
be resolved
There would be There would be Minor issues Minor workforce Concerns about
a minor shortfall a minor shortfall with the supply issues would compliance would
Insignificant
in meeting in growth but this chain would pass without any be resolved without
expectations for would not attract pass without any special attention special action
shareholder value much attention special attention
but they would
pass unnoticed

B 4.5.2 Likelihood scales
Where two or more climate scenarios are
employed, consequences must be interpreted as
It is necessary to describe the likelihood of a risk
if each scenario has arisen. The consequences
4.5 of one risk may differ depending on which
scenario is being considered.
arising if a particular climate change scenario
comes about. This is a conditional likelihood,
to be assessed as if the climate change scenario
Recommendations was going to happen. The likelihood of the
When developing consequence scales scenario actually arising and how to take this
into account in the analysis is discussed later.
13. If you have an existing risk management
framework, stay as close to it as you can while Likelihood scales for risk analysis are less
satisfying the following recommendations. dependent on the details of the application
than are consequence scales. A five point scale
14. Aim for four to six criteria. has proved effective for likelihood ratings just
15. Test the criteria before developing the as it has for consequences. The extreme ends
scales to make sure they are a complete of the scale in this case are risks that are
set and there are not too many of them. almost certain to happen and those that are
almost, but not quite, certain not to happen.
16. Define the extremes of the consequences,
Catastrophic and Insignificant, before There is one potential source of confusion to be
specifying the Major, Moderate and addressed concerning how often the same risk
Minor levels. might occur. Some risks are most realistically
thought of as events that could happen once,
such as the loss of an endangered plant
or animal species at the centre of a tourism
business or a permanent move of population
from increasingly arid land to regional centres
and major cities. Other risks make more sense
when considered as recurring events such as
structural damage to domestic buildings from
severe storms or episodes of heat related deaths.
A scale that can be used to rate the

likelihood of both single and recurrent
events is shown in Table 11. This has been
used widely, including in the case studies
undertaken in preparing this Guide, and is
likely to be relevant to most applications.
Where two or more climate scenarios are

employed, the likelihood of the risk arising
must be interpreted as if the climate
change scenario has arisen. The likelihood
of a specific risk arising may differ depending
on which scenario is being considered.

B
Table 11: Likelihood (given that the climate scenario arises)
Rating Recurrent risks Single events

Almost certain Could occur several
times per year
More likely than not
– Probability greater than 50%.
4.5
Likely May arise about As likely as not
once per year – 50/50 chance.
Possible May arise once Less likely than not but still appreciable
in ten years – Probability less than 50% but still quite high.
Unlikely May arise once in ten Unlikely but not negligible
years to 25 years – Probability low but noticeably greater than zero.
Rare Unlikely during the Negligible
next 25 years – Probability very small, close to zero.
The timescale used for the recurrent events Such events will usually form only part
should be comparable with the time horizon of an analysis alongside several more likely
of the analysis. Subject to ensuring this alignment risks. However, there may be situations
between timescales, the scale has proved in which, due to the nature of the matter under
very reliable as an effective workshop tool. consideration, all the risks that will arise would all
fall into the bottom one or two levels of Table 11.
It is not very common but if the highest
If this were to happen, the likelihood scale would
likelihood you face will be a lot less than
not be serving any useful purpose as all risks
one, say a maximum probability of 10%
would have the same likelihood rating.
or even less, it may be more effective to:
There are other considerations that arise
> set the highest likelihood (level A) at a value
when events all have very low probabilities.
you believe will equal or just slightly exceed
It would be advisable to seek expert advice
the highest you might face; and
on analysing risks in these circumstances.
> use the levels between this and the
bottom of the scale (levels B, C and D) Recommendations
to discriminate between risks in the narrower When developing likelihood scales
range applicable to your situation.
17. If you have an existing risk
This will usually only be relevant to situations management framework, stay as
where all risks under consideration are ‘rare’ close to it as you can while satisfying
in common parlance, such as catastrophic the following recommendation.
structural failures, major transport disasters
18. Use the default scale shown here
or widespread and severe health system failures.
unless there is a pressing reason not
to, such as there being an established
scale in use already or the range
of likelihoods you face being very low.

B
4.5
4.5.3 Risk priority levels
Use a matrix, similar to that in Table 12,
to define the level of priority associated with
each combination of consequence and likelihood.
Table 12: Priority (given that the scenario arises)
Consequences
Likelihood Insignificant Minor Moderate Major Catastrophic
Almost certain Medium Medium High Extreme Extreme
Likely Low Medium High High Extreme
Possible Low Medium Medium High High
Unlikely Low Low Medium Medium Medium
Rare Low Low Low Low Medium
The interpretation of the priority levels When first setting up the framework, think about
is usually as follows: each cell in the priority matrix and consider
whether the initial priority rating is appropriate
> Extreme risks demand urgent attention
given the meaning of the consequence and
at the most senior level and cannot
likelihood and the interpretation of the priority
be simply accepted as a part of routine
set out above. Depending on the attitude
operations without executive sanction.
of the organisation towards risk, the boundaries
> High risks are the most severe that between the priority regions in the matrix may
can be accepted as a part of routine be moved. There is an opportunity to adjust
operations without executive sanction priorities at the end of the risk identification
but they will be the responsibility of the and analysis but the more initial priorities
most senior operational management that are acceptable on the first pass the
and reported upon at the executive level. more efficient the overall process will be.
> Medium risks can be expected to form The most common pitfall in defining the priority
part of routine operations but they will matrix is to make the Extreme region too large
be explicitly assigned to relevant managers and the Low region too small. Careful reflection
for action, maintained under review and on a few example risks is a good way to test
reported upon at senior management level. this before putting the matrix to use.
> Low risks will be maintained under

review but it is expected that existing
controls will be sufficient and no further
action will be required to treat them
unless they become more severe.

B
Recommendations The set of key elements must be complete,
in that it covers all significant issues.
When developing a priority matrix However, as the number of key elements tends
19. If you have an existing risk management to drive the duration of the risk identification
activity, it must also be contained to an appropriate
4.6
framework, stay as close to it as you can while
satisfying the following recommendations. scale. Finally, it must balance the need for
sufficiently specific language to stimulate the
20. If you need to start afresh, use the
identification of risks against ensuring enough
examples here as a foundation.
generality to avoid prejudging the identification
21. Create a few examples of risks to test process. For example, a key element presented
the scales. under the label “Climate induced fatalities” is likely
to be perceived as a risk statement in itself and
22. If in doubt, err on the side of making the
so limit creative thought on the subject, whereas
Extreme and High regions of the matrix
the label “Health impacts of climate change” might
smaller rather than larger, as severe risks
be expected to stimulate a broader discussion.
that are understated will usually be picked
up in the review at the end whereas it is often There are many ways to derive a set of key
more difficult to downgrade risks that are elements. They can be based on any concept that
overstated and they can clog the process. makes it possible to break down your organisation’s
activities into separate areas. For example:
> organisational functions or activities;

4.6 Key elements
> geographical areas or different land
To ensure that the process of risk identification
uses within the region of interest;
is systematic and efficient, break the issues
facing your organisation into discrete elements > technologies or assets employed
or areas. The key elements provide a framework (eg. IT, electronic, electrical,
for thinking about risks efficiently and mechanical, human systems); or
making good use of the time and resources
> service or product types.
devoted to the subsequent activities of risk
assessment, analysis and evaluation. A useful set of topics may include items
of different types. The main requirement
Key elements are a set of topics that can
is to be comprehensive, cover everything,
be considered one by one during the risk
leave scope for creative input and achieve
identification step of the process. Each topic
an appropriate level of detail.
is somewhat narrower than the whole scope
being addressed, allowing those performing
the identification to focus their thoughts
and go into more depth than they would
if they tried to deal with everything in one
go. A well designed set of key elements will
stimulate creative thought and ensure that
all important issues are raised, with effort
being balanced between the different topics.

B 4.7 Briefing note
Table 13: Examples – key elements
Key elements for a transport organisation: The output of the context stage is a briefing
4.7 > Assets (vehicles, maintenance facilities) document summarising the context and the
process to be used in the workshop for the
> Infrastructure
initial assessment. A typical contents list for
> Demand (current and forecast usage,
the briefing note is provided in Table 14.
population demographics, land use
and growth) Prior to a workshop the briefing note should
> Users be distributed to workshop participants,
allowing sufficient lead time for it to be read
> Staff
carefully. If there are objections or errors to be
> Funding (development and maintenance) addressed, it is more efficient to resolve them
Key elements for a water company: before the workshop than in an open meeting.
> Water sources
This and other organisational matters
> Infrastructure & resources relevant to planning the workshop are
> Customers discussed further in section 8.1.
> Environment & community Table 14: Briefing note contents
> Business environment
Key elements for a manufacturing business: Section Contents
Introduction Purpose of the exercise
> Supply chain
Time, date and location
> Manufacturing operations and assets
of the workshop(s)
> Markets
Identity of the facilitator and,
> Labour and other human resources
if different, the administrator
> Energy and resources of the exercise
Key elements for a public List of workshop participants
sector service provider
Outline of the process with
> Service delivery reference to
> Related services and service providers AS/NZS 4360 and this guide
> Personnel Context Climate scenarios to
> General public be considered
> Systems & equipment Scope, stakeholders, evaluation
framework and key elements
> Administration & support
Workshop Procedural description
of workshop
Agenda with intended timetable

5. At the workshop
—identify, analyse & evaluate the risks
5.1 Introduction
B
At the workshop, the identification and analysis
steps will require different modes of thought:
The set of tasks referred to here collectively creative open thinking to identify risks,
as a risk assessment, consists of three central
steps in the risk management process:
and closed methodical thinking to analyse
them. By interspersing them as indicated
5.1
> identify the risks; in Figure 8, the pace of the workshop can
be maintained without the participants becoming
> analyse the risks; and stale and the focus that the key element structure
> evaluate the risks. brings to the exercise can be maintained.
These steps are best undertaken as a single Figure 8: Risk assessment steps for Key elements
exercise in a workshop setting. The three
Identify Analyse
steps must generate a list of risks associated the risks & the risks &
opportunities opportunities Evaluate
with climate change that is as comprehensive
as possible, not overlooking any major area KE1 KE1
of exposure, and do so as efficiently as possible.
At the conclusion of these steps you will
have a list of risks and existing controls that
KE2 KE2
tend to mitigate them, with consequence and
KE
likelihood ratings in each scenario you have 1-n
decided to consider and an agreed overall priority
rating for each risk to your organisation.
The workshop will generally be most effective

if it is led by an experienced facilitator,
possibly an independent risk assessment specialist.
KEn KEn
Smooth running of the workshop may also
benefit from having an additional person, either
independent of the organisation or drawn from
junior or administrative personnel, to assist with KE=key element
recording workshop outputs. Considerable
attention will need to be given to ensuring that In practice, the key elements are considered
consensus outputs from the identification, analysis in conjunction with the climate change scenarios
and evaluation steps are fully and systematically being examined, as shown in Figure 9.
recorded during the course of the workshop. Figure 9: Key elements and climate scenarios
Workshops participants should be fully aware for risk identification
of what is being recorded. In practice, this probably
means recording the information on a whiteboard, Climate Scenario
a computer spreadsheet projected on to a Key element Scenario 1 Scenario 2
screen or a similar mechanism that provides Element 1 KE 1.1 KE 1.2
visibility of proceedings to the participants. Element 2 KE 2.1 KE 2.2
... ... ...

B
5.2
5.2 Risk workshop process overview
In a workshop setting, the recommended
risk identification, analysis and evaluation
5.3 Identify risks
A risk is the chance of something happening that
will have an impact on the organisation’s objectives.
process is to take each key element and each A brainstorming approach to risk identification
climate change scenario in turn and: encourages all participants to raise issues
and provide opportunities for the contributions
1. Brainstorm risks associated with the
of one person to spark ideas for others.
element until the main issues are felt
to have been exposed. The usual rules of brainstorming, that is
allowing practically any input and suspending
2. Taking each risk in turn:
judgement during the brainstorming activity,
> identify any existing controls (features should be applied. All issues raised in the
of the environment, natural and man made workshop should be included, even if they prove
structures and mechanisms, procedures later to be trivial or duplicates of other risks.
and other factors) that are already The analysis step will screen out the trivial issues
in place and tend to mitigate the risk; and duplicates can be drawn together in later
rationalisation of the risk register if necessary.
> describe the consequences the risk would
have if it was to arise, given the controls, and There are a few recommendations for
in each of the scenarios under consideration; a successful risk identification exercise:
> describe the likelihood of suffering that level > ensure that every risk statement includes
of consequence, again given the controls, a verb, saying “Road access may be cut”
in each of the scenarios under consideration; rather than just “Road access”;
> assign an initial priority in each > aim for a cause effect statement
scenario based on the likelihood and (X, the cause, may happen
consequence of the risk; and leading to Y, the effect) or equivalent;
> where two or more scenarios are being > apply a common sense test to check
considered, consider adjusting the priority whether the statement will be understood
in recognition that some scenarios are by anyone who was not present in the
less likely to occur than others. workshop and clarifying it if not.
3. Return to step (1) for the next key element. It can be difficult to disentangle risks from separate
sources when long timescales and complex issues
Apart from the need to consider two or more
are concerned. The inclusion of a few non-climate
climate change scenarios, this process is a routine
change risks in the process will do no harm apart
risk workshop exercise. Expert facilitation can
from absorbing a little time. If a risk is partly
be very valuable in producing a sound outcome
related to climate change, it should be included
and making cost-effective use of the effort
Any risks that are nothing to do with climate
invested in the workshop. Comprehensive advice
change that do slip into the process can easily
on the operation of the process can be found
be excised later and referred to other risk
in the Standards Australia Handbook HB 436,
management activities in the organisation.
a companion to the Standard AS/NZS 4360.

B
Table 15: Examples of risk controls
Recommendations
When running the risk Only measures that are already in place
identification activity or committed and require no further action
to be implemented can be claimed as controls.
5.4
23. Adopt the conventional rules Measures that might be taken to treat risks
of brainstorming that allow almost in the future cannot be assumed to be in place.
any input and suspend judgement.
Controls on degradation of infrastructure:
24. Do not allow the workshop to be > Routine monitoring and repair systems
diverted into debating whether a risk > Inherent robustness in the design
is a climate change risk or not. If in doubt and construction
let it remain in the process and consider
> The existence of alternatives that can be used
the matter later, after the workshop.
if the main infrastructure system fails
Controls on flooding due to
5.4 Analyse risks storms and high tides:
> The existing elevation of homes and
The analysis stage assigns each risk a priority other buildings above sea level
assuming that each of the climate change
> The design and construction of assets
scenarios being considered arises. It takes
that may be affected by flooding
account of any existing factors that will operate
to control the risk, which may be features of the > Existing barrages, levees and other
environment, existing practices by which people flood control mechanisms
can adapt as the climate changes or other Controls on outbreaks of plant,
trends that will happen at the same time and animal or human diseases:
modify the effects of the risk (Table 15). > Early warning monitoring systems
> Prophylactic treatments already in place
> Naturally occurring mechanisms that
compete with or counter the disease
and will develop at the same time as the
conditions that promote the disease
Controls on movements of population
> Economic barriers to relocation
> Existing distribution of health,
transport and other infrastructure
> Established government programs that
provide incentives to remain in place
> Growth of business opportunities associated
with climate change that offer fresh
employment in existing centres of population

B
Priorities are assigned in two stages: Table 16: Adjusting priority ratings
> first, each risk is assigned a qualitative More likely scenario Less likely scenarios
5.5 consequence and likelihood rating in each

climate scenario being considered; and
Initial
Extreme
Adjusted
Extreme
Initial
Extreme
Adjusted
High
> second, a priority is then assigned in each High High High Medium
scenario, based on the combination of the Medium Medium Medium Low
consequence and likelihood ratings.
Low Low Low Low
Consequences, likelihoods and risk priorities
Using this approach, each risk is assigned
are assessed using the scales developed in the
an overall priority equal to the highest priority
context step and described in Section 4.5.
it received in any of the climate scenarios being
If more than one climate change scenario considered. This ensures that any risks that may
has been used in risk identification then the be significant, in at least one of the possible sets
priority rating of risks may need to be adjusted of future climatic conditions, are given appropriate
in recognition of the fact that some scenarios attention in later stages of the analysis.
are less likely to occur than others. This can
No matter which approach to adjusting priorities
be addressed in two relatively simple ways
is adopted, the final priority rating assigned
according to the wishes of the participants.
to a risk must be a realistic reflection of the
The simplest approach is to examine the most workshop team’s opinion of how important the
severe risks and consider whether the relative risk is. This is considered explicitly in the next step
likelihood of the alternative scenarios mean that of the workshop, after all key elements have been
some risks should be given more or less priority addressed with risk identification and risk analysis.
than has been assigned using Table 12 based
on the initial assessment of consequences and
5.5 Evaluate risks
likelihood. A risk that only rates a high priority
in an unlikely scenario might be downgraded The objective of the evaluation step is to ensure
compared to one that rates a high priority the priority ratings are consistent with one
in all scenarios or in the most likely scenario. another and match the participants’ general view
This approach relies on direct examination and of the context within which they are operating.
judgement, which is the basis of the entire process.
When all key elements have been considered,
A slightly more mechanistic alternative assemble all the risks into a single set
is to reduce the priority rating of risks in priority order and review them as a whole.
in the least likely scenarios systematically, Manually adjust any risks found to have been
while leaving those in the most likely scenario over- or under-rated to show the agreed
as they are. This is illustrated in Table 16. priority the participants feel is appropriate.
Another alternative is not to adjust the priority The outcome will be a list of risks with all
ratings. This course may be prudent when the information recorded in the identification
there is little information about the likelihood of and analysis as well as the agreed priority
different scenarios. Better information about the allocated in the evaluation review.
likelihood of the alternative scenarios is expected
to become available in the next 1-2 years.

5.6 Review the initial assessment
B
In general, extreme and high priority risks
will need to be treated immediately or
The initial assessment review is an extension subjected to more detailed analysis.
of the risk evaluation stage. The aim of the review
is to place risks into the following categories: Low priority risks, on the other hand, will 5.6
generally be set aside with no further action
> risks that should be treated immediately required to treat them apart from routine
without further analysis and for which reviews to ensure that there has been no
the appropriate treatment is clear; change that would make them more severe.
> risks that can be set aside without Starting with the most severe risks and working
further action for the time being; and down to lower priority ratings as time and
> risks that will require more detailed resources permit, you need to determine whether:
analysis before determining whether to > the action required to address a risk is
treat them or not or to select the most obvious, requires no further justification
appropriate form of treatment. and can be implemented immediately;
In determining how to categorise risks it is useful > further analysis is required to determine
to consider the following general principles: the detailed nature of the risk or identify
> Extreme priority risks demand urgent the most appropriate action to take; or
attention at the most senior level and can > it must simply be borne, either because
not be simply accepted as a part of routine it is insignificant or because there is no
operations without executive sanction. cost-effective treatment and this is clear
> High priority risks are the most severe that without further analysis.
can be accepted as a part of routine operations
without executive sanction but they will be the
responsibility of the most senior operational
management.
> Medium priority risks can be expected to form

part of routine operations but they will be
explicitly assigned to relevant managers
for action and maintained under review.
> Low priority risks will be maintained under

review but it is expected that existing controls
will be sufficient.

6. After the workshop
—treat the risks
B
6.1
6.1 Risk treatment
6.1.1 Overview
Risk treatment consists of determining the most
6.1.2 Climate change risk treatment
Literature dealing with response by human
or natural systems to the impacts of climate
change generally refers to the concept of
cost-effective actions to be undertaken in response
‘adaptation’, adjustments in response to
to the identified risks and implementation of
climate change that lead to a reduction in risks
those actions. This will usually result in the
or a realisation of benefits (see for example:
modification of existing strategies and plans,
McCarthy et al. 2001; Willows & Connell 2003).
the development of new plans, allocation of
Risk treatments developed and implemented by
resources and responsibilities for the plans and
an organisation in response to climate change
their implementation. The formulation and
can be regarded as one type of adaptation.
implementation of actions is a matter for the
routine operating practices of the organisation. Because of the long time scales, climate change
risk treatments will usually involve strategic
It is often the case that one treatment action
planning and the allocation of new resources.
will have an effect on several risks and one
They are thus often distinguished from short
risk will be affected by more than one
term, reactive adjustments.
treatment. Some consideration of natural
groupings among the risks and strategic Climate change risk treatments can include
combinations of treatments will be beneficial technological and infrastructure measures,
in completing this stage of the process. planning, research and education or a combination
of actions. Table 17 provides an overview of
different types of possible measures that can be
adopted as risk treatments.

B
Table 17: Examples - Climate change risk treatments
Treatment type Description and examples

Spread risk Insurance and diversification strategies:
> Use of financial products that off-lay the risk
6.1
> Geographical diversification
Structural and Prevent effects through engineering solutions and changed practices:
technological > Increase reservoir capacity
> Implement energy demand management measures
> Scale up coastal protection measures
> Change design of storm-water systems
> Build more resilient housing
> Install more efficient irrigation systems
> Create wildlife corridors
Regulatory and Prevent or mitigate effects through revised regulations and planning:
institutional > Adopt integrated planning approaches
> Amend local planning schemes to give greater weight to flood risk
> Revise guidance notes for urban planners
> Amend building design standards
> Increase resources for coastal planning
> Factor climate change into criteria for designation of species
or ecosystems requiring increased protection
> Improved contingency and disaster planning
> Lengthen strategic planning horizons (from say 5-10 years to 20-30 years)
Avoidance Avoid or exploit changes in risk:
> Grow new crops
> Migration of people way from high risk areas
> Change location of new housing developments
> Improve forecasting systems to give advance warning of extreme climate events
Research Research to improve understanding of relationship between climate change and risk:
> Improve knowledge of relationship between past and present variations
in climate and performance of economic, social and environmental systems
> Improve modelling of regionally-based climate change impacts
> Improve knowledge of the probability of frequency and magnitude of changes to
extreme climate events and other climate variables under climate change
> Improve understanding of the relationship between changes to frequency and
magnitude of extreme events and critical thresholds for individual risks
Education, Educate and inform stakeholders about the risks of climate change:
behavioural > Increase public awareness about the potential impacts of climate
change and about climate change adaptation measures
> Educate and inform management and personnel about
climate change risks and adaptation measures
Source: adapted and revised from Burton 1996

B 6.1.3 Principles for treating risks 2. Manage priority climate change risks.
from climate change The initial assessment detailed earlier provides
organisations with a process for identifying
6.1 There is a growing body of literature on climate
change adaptation processes (see for example
and prioritising their climate change risks.
As discussed in section 5.6, the risk treatment
Willows & Connell 2005). A synopsis of generic
process of organisations should focus on their
principles of ‘good climate risk treatment’ drawn
high priority risks (i.e. extreme and high risks).
from that literature, which users of this Guide
This is simply a statement of the general rule
may find relevant and useful when developing risk
that it is necessary to set priorities for the
treatments for their organisation is set out below:
allocation of management attention and
1. Achieve balance between climate and resources.
non-climate risks.
3. Use adaptive management.
Implementing a climate change risk treatment
Adaptive management is an important strategy
is itself not risk free. An organisation may
for dealing with climate change uncertainties.
under-estimate the risks associated with
It is the process of putting in place small,
climate change relative to other non-climate
flexible, incremental changes based on regular
risks to the organisation, leading to insufficient
monitoring and revision of plans using
actions taken to treat the climate change risks
information available at the time, rather than
(referred to as ‘under-adaptation’). Alternatively,
relying on one-off, large-scale treatments.
the risks of climate change may have been
Adaptive management leaves scope for
over-estimated relative to other risks,
decisions about treatments to be reviewed
resulting in too much attention and resources
in the future as improved information becomes
being devoted to treating the climate change
available about the nature of climate change
risks (referred to as ‘over-adaptation’).
risks. An advantage of this approach is that
One means of avoiding under- or it reduces the potential for over-adaptation
over-adaptation is for organisations to (discussed above), while providing scope
take a balanced approach to managing for an organisation to strengthen its risk
climate and non-climate risks. This is best treatment should it become apparent in the
achieved by integrating climate change future that the organisation is under-adapting
risk management with the broader risk to one or more climate change risks.
management processes of the organisation
(see Chapter 8). Ideally, all forms of risk
management operating within an organisation
will be integrated with one another and
with all general management processes.

B
4. Look for win-win or no-regrets Table 18: Examples of win-win and
treatment options. no-regrets treatments
Organisations should look for and give
priority to implementing ‘win-win’ or
‘no-regrets’ treatment options.
Win-win treatments:
> changed cropping in response to climate
6.1
change leads to reduced soil erosion
Win–win treatments refer to measures
> climate change risk treatment by
that address the targeted climate change
an electricity distribution company
risk while also having other environmental,
increases reliability of customer supply
social or economic benefits.
> strategic response to climate
No-regrets treatments are measures that change by a local government helps
should be undertaken anyway, regardless to build community networks
of whether climate change is an issue.
No-regrets treatments:
Examples of no-regrets and win-win > treatment measures that are cost neutral—
treatments are provided in Table 18. maybe involving an initial capital investment
but reducing overall costs in the longer term
5. Avoid adaptation constraining decisions.
Organisations should avoid taking decisions > improved management practices by an
that will make it more difficult for them organisation (e.g. strategic planning)
or others to manage climate change
risks in the future. These decisions are
sometimes referred to as ‘adaptation
constraining decisions’. An example
of an adaptation constraining decision
is a local council permitting a residential
development in a flood-prone area.
6. Review your treatment strategy.

An organisation should regularly review
its climate change risk treatment
strategy as part of the monitoring and
review step discussed in section 3.3.

PART C
Other
Considerations
7. If detailed analysis
is needed
C
7.1
7.1 Purpose and major aspects
of detailed analysis
Some climate change risks are complex matters,
7.2 Addressing uncertainty
associated with climate change
Uncertainties exist about the magnitude,
with impacts affecting several components of an rate and direction of changes to specific climate
organisation and interactions with other trends variables, especially at the regional and local
and changes during the same time frame. In levels. Some organisations may decide that,
many cases the initial assessment process will in order to assess a risk, more detailed analysis
prove sufficient for an organisation to identify is required on one or more climate variables
and prioritise the risks that it faces from climate to reduce the uncertainty in projections.
change and to develop and implement treatments.
7.2.1 Reducing uncertainty about
Some risks may need more detailed analysis before the likelihood of changes
the need for treatment or the nature of appropriate
The IPCC (2001) has provided estimates of
treatment measures can be determined. Detailed
confidence in projected changes to extreme
analysis may be needed to:
events and other climate variables (Table 19).
> address uncertainty in the likelihood, projected
level or rate of change to climate variables
– i.e. understand the climate change itself;
> analyse the sensitivity of particular risks

to changes in climate variables – i.e.
understand the way your operations will
be affected by climate change; or
> assess treatment options.
This chapter provides a brief overview of

each of these aspects of detailed analysis.
The process of implementing the detailed
analysis will, in most cases, be particular
to your organisation and to the different risks
faced by your organisation. For this reason,
it is not feasible or appropriate to offer
specific guidance on the detailed analysis.
Throughout the remainder of this chapter,

while dealing with detailed analytical issues,
it is important to bear in mind the purpose
of the exercise. It is to provide a sound basis
for deciding whether to act on an identified risk
or not and, if action is to be taken, to select
the most appropriate form of treatment.

C
Table 19: Estimates of confidence in projected changes These estimates are fairly coarse, particularly for
in extreme events and other climate variables local application, and organisations may decide that
they require more specific understanding of the
Climate variable Confidence in
projected changes1
changes. One way to gain this understanding is to
produce probability distributions of changes to
7.2
Higher maximum Very likely specific climate variables such as temperature,
temperatures and rainfall or sea level using statistical methods
more hot days over such as Monte Carlo analysis.
nearly all land areas
The CSIRO, for example, has undertaken an
Higher minimum Very likely
analysis of the probability of exceeding sea level
temperatures, fewer cold
thresholds (Figure 10). It has also produced
days and frost days over
probability distributions (single variable) and
nearly all land areas
probability density plots (multiple variables) for
Reduced diurnal2 Very likely
temperature and rainfall changes in specific
temperature range over
regions. Probability distributions such as these
most land areas
do not remove uncertainty but they do provide
Increase of heat index3 Very likely, an assessment of the realistically likely ranges
over land areas over most areas of outcomes and the likelihood of particular
More intense Very likely, outcomes within each range.
precipitation events over most areas
Increase summer Likely, over
continental drying and most mid-latitude
associated risk of drying continental
interiors
Increase in tropical cyclone Likely, over
peak wind intensities some areas
Increase in tropical Likely, over
cyclone mean and peak some areas
precipitation intensities
1. The IPCC uses the following definitions of confidence:: very
likely - 90-99% confidence; likely - 66-90% confidence .
2. Diurnal temperature range is the range
experienced within a 24-hour period.
3. Heat index is a combination of temperature and
humidity that measures effect on human comfort.
Source: IPCC 2001

C
Figure 10: Probability of Exceeding Sea Level Thresholds
100 100 100
7.2 80 75cm Threshold 80 80

Sea Level Rise (cm)
60 60 60
40 40 40
25cm Threshold
20 20 20
0 0 0
1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 0 6 0 100
Year Probability (%) Probability (%)
Source: Hennessey et al. 2004
Probability distributions such as that outlined Some organisations may decide that the level
in Figure 10, rely heavily on assumptions of detail provided in existing reports is insufficient
about global and regional climate changes. for their needs. For example, they may want
Therefore organisations seeking to improve their to know the implications of projected rainfall
understanding of the probability of changes changes for streamflow in a specific catchment,
to specific climate variables are likely to require or the impacts of sea level rise and storm
assistance from climate change specialists. surge on a specific stretch of coast. If this
is the case for your organisation, it is likely that
7.2.2 Reducing uncertainty about
you will need to engage specialist support.
regional and local changes
The climate change scenarios accompanying this
Guide provide an indication of the sort of changes in
climate that business and communities may have
to prepare for in a number of regions in Australia.
The CSIRO and other researchers in Australia have
also undertaken studies which address projections
of climate changes at the state and regional
levels. A number of state climate change reports
provide regional and even site-specific information
on projected changes to the frequency of:
> very hot and very cold days and spells;
> droughts;
> extreme rainfall;
> extreme winds; and
> storm surges.
Many of these studies are available publicly.

7.3 Understanding sensitivity
C
today, it may be clear that the community is already
to climate change struggling to cope when severe storms strike;
in this case, they might evaluate the effect of any
‘Sensitivity’ refers to the degree to which an area or
activity of interest will be affected, either adversely
increase in the frequency or severity of such
storms quite easily by comparison with their
7.3
or beneficially, by a particular change in climate existing situation. Where the existing climate
or a climate-related variable. For the activities conditions are at or close to an obvious threshold
or assets of some organisations, relatively minor and change can only make it worse, it might
changes in the climate may pass unnoticed up to not be necessary to engage in very much more
a certain point, and even significant changes may analysis to identify the fact that action is required.
be manageable without the need for treatment.
For example, there may be some civil engineering Many sensitivities may be less obvious, and
and building constructions that would be unaffected organisations will need to assess each risk on
by a 5˚C temperature rise. Other structures its merits. Some may decide that more detailed
however, perhaps due to being built on moisture analysis is required to increase their understanding
sensitive soil, might be affected badly if the of the sensitivity of a particular risk or risks
mean temperature were to rise even 1-2˚C. to potential changes in climate. In particular,
they may wish to understand the point at which
The concept of sensitivity was raised briefly in changes to a climate variable begins to matter
section 2.3.3, noting that for most organisations (threshold) as well as the point at which a change
when undertaking an initial assessment, it is only to a climate variable will have a catastrophic
necessary to have a qualitative understanding effect on the organisation’s activities or assets
of the sensitivity to climate change in order to if the risk remains untreated (critical threshold).
assess and prioritise risks. For instance, in a This is illustrated schematically in Figure 11.
region where a large proportion of the housing
stock is ageing, in poor repair and perhaps built
to less stringent standards than those in force
Figure 11: Schematic diagram of relationship between change to a climate

variable and risk thresholds for an organisation
Change to
climate
variable
Critical threshold
Range of
projected
change to
variable
Threshold
Past Present Future

C
Once a change to a climate variable Adaptive capacity can be an inherent property
(e.g. temperature or rainfall) passes an initial of the organisation or it could have been
threshold, problems could arise that require developed as a result of previous policy, planning
7.4 treatment, but it may be unclear where the
threshold lies. This may require an analysis
or design decisions. There are a range of factors
which can influence adaptive capacity:
in itself, drawing on expertise in the operations
> Information increases adaptive capacity
relevant to the organisation rather than climate
science. Even when the threshold at which change Is good information available to the organisation
starts to matter is clearly defined, it may still on climate change and variability and is the
be a challenge to determine whether and how far information available to the right people within
into the future that point is likely to be reached. the organisation and to relevant stakeholders?
This is another matter for climate science. Are effective monitoring or other programs in
place to detect changes that are occurring?
Expertise in the organisation’s operations and
in climate science will generally both be required > Flexibility and resources
for a detailed analysis of climate sensitivity. increase adaptive capacity
Such studies may be a significant undertaking
How flexible is the asset or activity at risk
and it is important to use the initial assessment
– i.e. can changes be made relatively easily
to set priorities to ensure that they are not devoted
and quickly or are long lead times required?
to risks that are insignificant or for which it is clear,
Are appropriate resources for treating a risk
without further study, that action is required.
– human, financial or other – in place already?
> Other risks reduce adaptive capacity

7.4 Assessing treatment options
Will other (non-climate) risks to the
Once a risk is well understood and it is
organisation influence its ability to
clear that some treatment will be required,
respond to the climate-related risk(s)?
detailed analysis of treatment options may
be required. There will usually be several options, Adaptive capacity factors such as these could
each entailing different costs and benefits and determine the range of treatment options
each offering a different level of risk mitigation. that are available to an organisation or the
treatments that are required to deal with
7.4.1 Adaptive capacity
a climate-related risk, and ultimately the cost
The range of treatment options that are of implementing treatments. Organisations
available to an organisation will often depend or systems with strong adaptive capacity can
on its capacity to respond to climate change. generally be expected to have lower costs and
Much of the literature dealing with climate a wider range of treatment options to select from
change response makes reference to the than organisations with weak adaptive capacity.
‘vulnerability’ of organisations or systems, defined
as ‘the extent to which a system or organisation
can cope with climate change’ (see for example
McCarthy et al. 2001). It is a function of risk
and ‘adaptive capacity’, defined as ‘the ability
of a system or an organisation to adjust or respond
to climate change or moderate the potential risks
of climate change to its assets or activities’.

7.4.2 Costs and benefits
C
Regardless of the technique used to assess climate
of treatment options change risk treatment options, care is needed
to ensure that the technique is correctly designed
Where an organisation has a number of options
for treating the risks of climate change,
and implemented. If it is not, it may yield
incorrect or misleading conclusions. With this
7.4
detailed analysis may be required to assess
in mind, organisations may consider seeking
the costs and benefits of the alternatives.
external advice when undertaking detailed
A range of tools or techniques are available
assessment of treatment options.
for assessing the costs and benefits of risk
treatment options including those associated
with climate change. Some of these involve
a full quantitative analysis of the costs and
benefits of options; others are semi-quantitative
or qualitative. The choice of technique
employed will depend on judgements about:
> the significance of the risk to be treated;
> the range of options that are

available for treating the risk;
> the range of criteria – economic, social

and environmental – that need to be
considered when assessing each option;
> data and information requirements in

relation to each of these criteria; and
> the capacity of the decision makers

to assimilate the available information and
form a judgement without formal modelling.
Table 20 (over page) provides a brief overview

of some of the major techniques available
for assessing risk treatment options. Further
discussion of these techniques is beyond the scope
of this Guide. There are numerous guides however,
which discuss in depth general application of the
techniques. In addition, reports discussing the
application of assessment techniques specifically to
the impacts of climate change are available
through the Australian Greenhouse Office
website: www.greenhouse.gov.au (for example
Metroeconomica 2003; MJA 2004).

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Table 20: Tools and techniques for assessing risk treatment options
Tool/technique Type Description and purpose Comments
7.4 Cost-Benefit
Analysis
Quantitative,
economic
Determine whether the total benefits
to society of a treatment option out-
> Focus is on costs and
benefits to society.
weighs the costs of the option or > Relies on pricing major
which option (from a group of options) benefit and cost streams.
will produce the greatest net benefit.
> Pricing of non-market
costs and benefits can
be resource intensive.
Cost- Quantitative, Determine the least-cost way > Only costs of treatment
Effectiveness economic of achieving a predetermined options need to
Analysis physical or environmental goal. be monetised.
> Each option should
achieve the same or
similar level of benefit.
Financial Quantitative, Determine whether the total > Focus is on costs and
Analysis financial benefits to an individual entity of benefits to the
a treatment option out-weighs individual entity.
the costs of the option or which
option (from a group of options) will
produce the greatest net benefits.
General Quantitative, Determine the flow-on effects > Usually undertaken using
equilibrium economic throughout the economy of a computable general
analysis treatment option or options. equilibrium models.
> Data and resource
intensive.
Multi-Criteria Qualitative/ Determine overall preferences > Often relies on
Decision semi- among alternative treatment options, expert judgement.
Analysis quantitative where the options accomplish > Methods are not yet
several objectives. Options assessed universally agreed
against a range of weighted
> Can be combined
criteria using qualitative or semi-
with economic or
quantitative scoring and then ranked
financial techniques.
based on scores and weights.

8. Preparation,
planning and integration
8.1 Preparation and planning
C
Key tasks in the project plan for
the initial assessment are:
Planning is critical to the success of any
risk management exercise. It must: 1. Check that you have the latest climate
change scenarios relevant to your 8.1
> engage the people required to sanction, execute organisation, as explained in section 4.2.1.
and act upon the outcomes of the analysis;
2. Establish the context of the initial assessment.
> obtain relevant information;
3. Identify who will plan and manage the work
> specify the timing of activities; and and, if it is a different person, who will facilitate
> obtain the resources required for the the workshop(s) and analyse the results.
administration, facilitation and data 4. Identify the participants in the workshop(s).
recording components of each task.
5. Determine whether all participants can
The following list sets out the major be included in a single workshop or if more
steps for initiating a climate change than one workshop will be required.
risk management process.
6. Estimate how long it will take to prepare
1. Review any existing risk management and document the context definition.
processes or earlier examination of climate
change, if any, within your organisation. 7. Pick a workshop date or dates allowing
sufficient time to prepare a briefing note for
2. Determine how climate change risk all participants and issue it a clear week,
management will be integrated with or more, before the first workshop.
other processes (unless it is decided
to treat it as a stand alone exercise, 8. Document the plan for:
which is not recommended).
> establishing the context;
3. Identify the sponsor and the audience
> preparing a briefing note;
for the output of the process, generally
the directors and senior executive > holding the workshop(s); and
management of the organisation.
> conducting the initial assessment review.
4. Determine how any actions flowing from this
process will be inserted into routine operational
activity with appropriate resources and controls.
5. Build around the entire exercise a

simple communication plan setting out
what will be said by whom and to whom
about climate change risk management
and the actions flowing from it.
6. Identify the participants in the process,

including any external advisers and
collaborators you may wish to use.
7. Prepare a simple project plan for the process,

with dates for the completion of each step.

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8.1
Recommendations
When planning the initial
risk assessment:
8.2 Integration with existing risk
management practices
Many organisations have risk management
practices in place. These may range
25. Work on an initial estimate of one from fully integrated enterprise wide
to three months elapsed time risk management systems to piecemeal
to complete the stage and adjust applications of safety and hazard assessments
it as necessary to suit your circumstances, or individual project risk assessments.
but try to avoid extended delays.
This Guide is intended for any organisation,
26. Take account of the timing of significant no matter how much or how little their risk
information inputs that might become management activity has been formalised
available around the time of the to date. Two extremes, in terms of the current
analysis and try to plan workshops state of risk management, are discussed
to take advantage of them. in the following sub-sections. From these,
27. Try to ensure the initial assessment most organisations will be able to select
output is available in time to be used guidance to suit their circumstances.
in budgeting and target setting, 8.2.1 Building on a fully integrated
towards the end of a planning year rather risk management system
than just after the start of a year.
An organisation that has a fully integrated risk
28. Plan workshops for a half or a management system will have skilled resources
full day, erring on the high side that can be applied to climate change risk
if in doubt, with a target of seven management and many personnel will be familiar
to fifteen people in each. with the general working of the process.
29. Engage workshop participants who The organisation is likely to have an agreed
have understanding and ownership strategic context definition, processes for
of the issues and responsibility for defining the context of separate parts of their
taking action to treat risks. operation, and mechanisms for evaluating
risks. The organisation may also have in-house
30. Consider whether you need a specialist resources for facilitating the risk management
facilitator, in-house or external, to help process or access to such expertise elsewhere.
with the rest of the process.
In all these respects, such an organisation
should find it relatively easy to initiate climate
change risk management as a relatively
straightforward extension of existing practices.

Recommendations
If you have existing risk
management processes:
Recommendations
If you have no formal risk management
processes at the moment:
C
8.2
31. Use the established process as the foundation 34. Consider whether this will be an isolated
for climate change risk management. risk management exercise or part of a wider
risk management development.
32. If it is necessary to adjust or extend existing
processes to meet the needs of climate 35. If there is an intention to develop
change risk management, integrate the a general risk management process
two processes into a single framework. as well as implement climate change
risk management, seek additional advice
33. Make climate change risk management
as this Guide does not extend to the
an integral part of risk management
establishment of a full organisational
in the organisation, not a separate
risk management process.
risk management activity operating
on a different basis from that used 36. Even if there is no intention to go beyond
for other risk management tasks. climate change risk management,
consider using specialist risk management
8.2.2 Starting ‘from scratch’ guidance, even though it may not be
required by everyone to implement
Organisations that have no existing risk
the process laid out here.
management systems will find all the basic
information required to establish a climate
change risk management process in this Guide.
8.3 Integration with other activities
If it is put together well, this could be the first
step towards establishing a sound general 8.3.1 The annual planning cycle
risk management system. Related resources
Climate change is taking place on a similar
that will be useful in such circumstances
timescale and in some cases with similar
are the Standard AS/NZS 4360:2004 and the
consequences to other long terms
associated handbook HB 436, both of which
trends and changes. These include:
are available from Standards Australia.
> population growth;
Whether the intention is to generalise risk
management across the organisation or merely > ageing of the population;
to implement climate change risk management,
> changes in land use;
those who have never engaged in formal risk
management activity, or who are unfamiliar > general aspiration towards higher
with implementing the Standard, may find living standards; and
it useful to seek external risk management
> pressure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions
support. Risk management practitioners with
and adopt sustainable development practices.
adequate experience and expertise should have
no difficulty taking the process laid out here and
implementing climate change risk management.

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A consideration of climate change risk can raise
Recommendations
issues that are driven by both climate change
and other factors as well, such as pressure The annual planning cycle
8.3 on water supplies or growing susceptibility
to pests and diseases. It makes a lot of sense
37. Consider integrating climate change risk
assessment with strategic planning.
to combine climate change risk assessment with
the organisation’s strategic planning process, 38. Use all strategic planning and related
as this can help to resolve the causes and information to identify changes that will take
consequences of risks and allow similar issues place at the same time as climate change.
with long-term impacts to be considered together.
39. Plan to have the conclusions of the risk
Given the timescale of climate change and management process available in time
related developments, it is likely that major to be included in the annual objective
reviews will take place about once a year. setting and budget allocation exercises.
If the analysis takes place as part of the
40. Use the communication and consultation
formulation of the next year’s plans and budget
activity in the risk management
setting, those plans and budgets can take account
process to gather relevant information
of climate change risk and be used to underpin
from other planning and investigation
the actions chosen to address the risks.
activities and disseminate climate
Planning and budgeting are usually conducted change risk management information
to a well defined timetable, but investigations to these other activities.
that might feed into a risk analysis may
41. As far as possible, try to make the outcome
be less predictable. Where possible,
of other investigations and reports available
arrange for relevant information to be available
before the risk analysis takes place.
before risks are identified or reviewed.

8.3.2 Climate science and risk
management expertise
Few organisations have in-house expertise
Recommendations
Obtaining information and support
42. Check AGO website for the most up-to-date
C
8.3
in climate science. Somewhat more have in-house
climate science information and scenarios.
risk management process expertise. A simple
initial implementation of the process set out 43. Ensure that a member of the facilitation
in this Guide can be carried out with no more team involved in the initial assessment
information than is included here, but some stage has a basic familiarity with current
organisations will prefer to seek external support. climate science to the level of, say,
the ‘summary for policy makers’ in the
Whether you intend to take advice on climate
IPCC Synthesis Report (IPCC 2001).
change or risk management or on neither,
it is important to check that you have the most 44. Consider using a specialist,
recent climate science information. Climate whether in-house or externally sourced,
science is a dynamic field and new insights are to interpret climate science where it is
being gained every year. This Guide has been necessary to go beyond the simplified
prepared using information available at the scenarios accompanying this Guide.
end of 2005. The risk management process
45. Take account of the strategic nature
described here should remain valid for many
of climate change risk management and the
years but the climate change information
desirability of integrating the process with
used within it is expected to change. As noted
other management systems when selecting
previously, scenarios for use in initial climate
advisers for risk management support.
change risk assessments will be updated as new
information becomes available and included
on the Australian Greenhouse Office web site.
Exhaustive interpretation of climate science

information and quantitative analyses will usually
only be required for the detailed analysis stage
of the process. Support in these areas will generally
have to come from external organisations. It is
important that a member of the risk assessment
facilitation team has a basic familiarity with current
climate science to the level of, say, the ‘summary
for policy makers’ in the IPCC Synthesis Report
(IPCC 2001). If you do not believe this level of
knowledge exists within your organisation or can be
acquired readily, then additional third-party support
should be sought.

> Checklist
of recommendations and hints
C Using climate change scenarios 11. Think widely about anyone who is not
1. Apply climate change scenarios as the basis directly involved but could have an effect
for assessing risks in the initial assessment on the success of your organisation.
stage of the risk assessment process. Standard 12. List the stakeholders with a short summary
scenarios accompany this Guide, and will be of their motivations and concerns.
updated periodically as new information about
climate projections becomes available. When developing consequence scales
2. When applying climate change scenarios 13. If you have an existing risk management
to the risk assessment ensure that workshop framework, stay as close to it as you can while
participants are provided with both quantitative satisfying the following recommendations.
and descriptive information on the scenarios. 14. Aim for four to six criteria.
3. Limit the number of scenarios 15. Test the criteria before developing the
used to one or two. scales to make sure they are a complete
4. More specific and detailed climate change set and there are not too many of them.
information than is provided in the standard 16. Define the extremes of the consequences,
climate change scenarios may need Catastrophic and Insignificant, before specifying
to be used for detailed assessments. the Major, Moderate and Minor levels.
When defining the scope When developing likelihood scales

5. Try to address the entire scope 17. If you have an existing risk management
of the organisation’s operations in one framework, stay as close to it as you can while
assessment exercise if you can. satisfying the following recommendation.
6. If it is necessary to split the scope into parts, 18. Use the default scale shown here unless there
look carefully for potential gaps between is a pressing reason not to, such as there being
the parts and consider whether you need an established scale in use already or the
a separate, high level assessment to deal with range of likelihoods you face being very low.
issues that are not confined to one area.
When developing a priority matrix
7. Make sure the geographical area, organisational
boundaries, operational boundaries and 19. If you have an existing risk management
timeframe are specified explicitly. framework, stay as close to it as you can while
satisfying the following recommendations.
When identifying the stakeholders 20. If you need to start afresh, use the
8. Start with broad groups of stakeholders examples here as a foundation.
rather than small groups or individuals. 21. Create a few examples of risks
9. Break groups down if they contain to test the scales.
two or more distinctly separate sets 22. If in doubt, err on the side of making the
of motivations and concerns. Extreme and High regions of the matrix
10. Group together stakeholders with essentially smaller rather than larger, as severe risks
the same motivations and concerns. that are understated will usually be picked
up in the review at the end whereas it is often
more difficult to downgrade risks that are
overstated and they can clog the process.

When running the risk
identification activity
23. Adopt the conventional rules
of brainstorming that allow almost
If you have existing risk
management processes
31. Use the established process as the foundation
for climate change risk management
C
any input and suspend judgement. 32. If it is necessary to adjust or extend existing
24. Do not allow the workshop to be diverted processes to meet the needs of climate
into debating whether a risk is a climate change risk management, integrate the
change risk or not. If in doubt let two processes into a single framework
it remain in the process and consider 33. Make climate change risk management
the matter later, after the workshop. an integral part of risk management in the
organisation, not a separate risk management
When planning the initial risk assessment activity operating on a different basis from
25. Work on an initial estimate of one to three that used for other risk management tasks
months elapsed time to complete the stage
and adjust it as necessary to suit your If you have no formal risk management
circumstances, but try to avoid extended delays. processes at the moment
26. Take account of the timing of significant 34. Consider whether this will be an isolated
information inputs that might become available risk management exercise or part of a wider
around the time of the analysis and try to plan risk management development.
workshops to take advantage of them. 35. If there is an intention to develop a general risk
27. Try to ensure the initial assessment output management process as well as implement
is available in time to be used in budgeting and climate change risk management,
target setting, towards the end of a planning seek additional advice as this Guide does
year rather than just after the start of a year. not extend to the establishment of a full
28. Plan workshops for a half or a full day, organisational risk management process.
erring on the high side if in doubt with 36. Even if there is no intention to go beyond climate
a target of seven to fifteen people in each. change risk management, consider using
29. Engage workshop participants who have specialist risk management guidance,
understanding and ownership of the issues and even though it may not be required by everyone
responsibility for taking action to treat risks. to implement the process laid out here.
30. Consider whether you need a specialist
The annual planning cycle
facilitator, in-house or external, to help
37. Consider integrating climate change risk
with the rest of the process.
assessment with strategic planning.
38. Use all strategic planning and related
information to identify changes that will take
place at the same time as climate change.
39. Plan to have the conclusions of the risk
management process available in time
to be included in the annual objective
setting and budget allocation exercises.

C
40. Use the communication and consultation
activity in the risk management process
to gather relevant information from other
planning and investigation activities and
disseminate climate change risk management
information to these other activities.
41. As far as possible, try to make the outcome
of other investigations and reports available
before the risk analysis takes place.
Obtaining information and support

42. Check AGO website for the most up-to-date
climate science information and scenarios.
43. Ensure that a member of the facilitation team
involved in the initial assessment stage has a
basic familiarity with current climate science to
the level of, say, the ‘summary for policy makers’
in the IPCC Synthesis Report (IPCC 2001).
44. Consider using a specialist, whether in-house
or externally sourced, to interpret climate
science where it is necessary to go beyond the
simplified scenarios accompanying this Guide.
45. Take account of the strategic nature
of climate change risk management and the
desirability of integrating the process with
other management systems when selecting
advisers for risk management support

> References
C
CSIRO, 2001. Climate change projections for Marsden Jacob Associates (MJA), 2004, Economic
Australia. Technical report, CSIRO Australia. Issues Relevant to Costing the Impacts of Climate Change,
8pp. Available from: http://www.cmar.csiro. A report prepared by Marsden Jacob Associates for
au/e-print/open/projections2001.pdf the Australian Greenhouse Office, AGO, Canberra.
48pp. Available from: http://www.greenhouse.
Hennessey, K., McInnes, K. Abbs, D., Jones, R.,
gov.au/impacts/publications/costing.html
Bathols, J., Suppiah, R., Ricketts, J., Rafter, T.,
Collins, D. and Jones, D., 2004. Climate Change Nicholls, N., 2004. The changing nature of
in New South Wales. Part 2: Projected changes in Australian droughts. Clim. Change, 63:323-336.
climate extremes, Counsultancy report for the New
Risbey, J., Karoly, D., Reynolds, A. and Braganza,
South Wales Greenhouse Office, CSIRO. 79pp.
K., 2003. Global warming signature in Australia’s
Houghton, J. T., Ding, Y., Griggs, D.J., Noguer, worst drought. Bull. Aust. Met. Ocn. Soc., 16:6-11.
M., van der Linden, P.J., Dai, X., Maskell,
Risbey, J., Hamza, K., and J. Marsden 2006:
K. and Johnson, C.A., (eds.) 2001. Climate
Use of climate scenarios to aid in decision
Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution
analysis for interannual water supply planning.
of Working Group I to the Third Assessment
Water Resources Management. In press.
Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change, Cambridge University Standards Australia, 2004.
Press, Cambridge, UK. 572pp. Available from: AS/NZS4360:2004 Risk Management.
http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/
Standards Australia, 2004. Handbook
IPCC, 2001. Climate change 2001: Synthesis HB436 Risk Management.
Report. A Contribution of Working Groups I, II
Willows, R. and Connell, R. (eds.), 2003. Climate
and III to the Third Assessment Report of the
adaptation: Risk, uncertainty and decision-making,
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
UKCIP Technical Report, UKCIP, Oxford. 153pp.
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. 34pp.
Water Corporation (Western Australia),
McCarthy, J.J., Canziani, O.F., Leary, N.A.,
2005. Integrated Water Supply Scheme Source
Dokken, D.J. and White, K.S. 2001. Climate
Development Plan 2005-2050: An Overview,
Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability,
Water Corporation, Perth. 40pp.
Contribution of Working Group II to the Third
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University
Press, Cambridge, UK. 1032pp. Available from:
http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/
Metroeconomica Limited, 2003, Costing the

impacts of Climate Change in the UK: Implementation
Guidelines, Final Report, prepared for the UK
Climate Impacts Programme, (UKCIP), UKCIP.
Available from: http://www.ukcip.org.uk/
resources/publications/pub_dets.asp?ID=54

> Glossary
C Climate change
Adaptation
Actions in response to actual or projected
Climate scenario
A coherent, plausible but often simplified
description of a possible future state
of the climate. A climate scenario should not
climate change and impacts that lead be viewed as a prediction of the future climate.
to a reduction in risks or a realisation of benefits. Rather, it provides a means of understanding
A distinction can be made between a planned the potential impacts of climate change,
or anticipatory approach to adaptation (i.e. risk and identifying the potential risks and opportunities
treatments) and an approach that relies on to an organisation created by an uncertain
unplanned or reactive adjustments. future climate. A ‘climate change scenario’
can be defined as the difference between
Adaptive capacity
a climate scenario and the current climate.
The capacity of an organisation or system
to moderate the risks of climate change, Climate projection
or to realise benefits, through changes in its A projection of the response of the climate
characteristics or behaviour. Adaptive capacity system to scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions
can be an inherent property or it could have or atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse
been developed as a result of previous policy, gases. Climate projections are often based upon
planning or design decisions of the organisation. simulations of the climate system by computer
based mathematical models. Climate projections
Climate depend on assumptions about emission rates and
The composite of surface weather conditions concentrations and response of the climate system
such as temperature, rainfall, atmospheric to changes in these variables and can therefore
pressure, humidity, sunshine and winds, be distinguished from climate predictions.
averaged over a period of time ranging from
months to thousands of years. The classical Climate variability
period for averaging, as defined by the World Variations or deviations from the mean
Meteorological Organisation, is 30 years. state of the climate. The climate system has
natural, internal variability but variability could
Climate change be affected by external factors driving climate
Any change in climate over time, whether due change such as changes in the atmospheric
to natural variability or as a result of human activity. concentration of greenhouse gases.
Climate change mitigation Enhanced greenhouse effect

Response measures that reduce the emission Increases in the atmospheric concentration
of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide,
or enhance their sinks, aimed at reducing methane and nitrous oxide due to human activities,
their atmospheric concentrations and leading to an increase in the amount of thermal
therefore the probability of reaching radiation near the Earth’s surface. Most scientists
a given level of climate change. agree that the enhanced greenhouse effect
is leading to an increase in global average
surface temperature (see global warming) and
other changes in the atmospheric environment
(see climate change). See also greenhouse effect.

Extreme event
Weather conditions that are rare for
a particular place and/or time such
as an intense storm or heat wave.
Risk management
Following the Standard AS/NZS 4360,
the definitions below apply to this guide.
C
Consequence
Global warming Outcome or impact of an event
An increase in the global average 1. There can be more than one
surface temperature due to natural consequence from one event.
or human caused factors. 2. Consequences can range from
positive to negative.
Greenhouse effect
3. Consequences can be expressed
The process where gases in the lower atmosphere
qualitatively or quantitatively.
such as carbon dioxide and water vapour trap
4. Consequences are considered in relation
radiation released by the Earth’s surface after it
to the achievement of objectives.
has been warmed by solar energy. These gases
then radiate heat back towards the ground, adding
Control
to the heat the ground receives from the Sun. The
An existing process, policy, device, practice
surface of the Earth would be about 33oC colder on
or other action that acts to minimise negative
average than it is without the natural greenhouse
risk or enhance positive opportunities.
effect. See enhanced greenhouse effect.
The word control may also be applied to a process
Sensitivity designed to provide reasonable assurance
regarding the achievement of objectives.
The degree to which a system is affected, either
adversely or beneficially, by climate related
Event
variables including means, extremes and variability.
Occurrence of a particular set of circumstances.
Vulnerability 1. The event can be certain or uncertain.
The extent to which a system or organisation 2. The event can be a single occurrence
can cope with the negative impacts or a series of occurrences.
of climate change, variability and extremes.
It is a function of risk and adaptive capacity. Frequency
A measure of the number
of occurrences per unit of time.
Hazard
A source of potential harm
Likelihood
Used as a general description
of probability or frequency
Can be expressed qualitatively or quantitatively.

C Monitor
To check, supervise, observe critically or measure
the progress of an activity, action or system
on a regular basis in order to identify change from
Risk evaluation
Process of comparing the level
of risk against risk criteria.
1. Risk evaluation assists in decisions
the performance level required or expected about risk treatment.
Organisation Risk identification

Group of people and facilities with an arrangement The process of determining what, where,
of responsibilities, authorities and relationships when, why and how something could happen.
- eg. company, corporation, firm, enterprise,
institution, charity, sole trader, association, Risk management
or parts or combination thereof. The culture, processes and structures that
1. The arrangement is generally orderly. are directed towards realising potential
2. An organisation can be public or private. opportunities whilst managing adverse effects.
Probability Risk management process

A measure of the chance of occurrence The systematic application of management
expressed as a number between zero and one. policies, procedures and practices to the
tasks of communicating, establishing the
1. ‘Frequency’ or ‘likelihood’ rather than
context, identifying, analysing, evaluating,
‘probability’ may be used in describing risk.
treating, monitoring and reviewing risk.
Risk
Risk treatment
The chance of something happening that
Process of selection and implementation
will have an impact on objectives.
of measures to modify risk.
1. A risk is often specified in terms
1. The term ‘risk treatment’ is sometimes
of an event or circumstance and the
used for the measures themselves,
consequences that may flow from it.
in addition to the process of generating
2. Risk is measured in terms
the measures to deal with a risk.
of a combination of the consequences
2. Risk treatment measures can include avoiding,
of an event and their likelihoods.
modifying, sharing or retaining risk.
3. Risk may have a positive or negative impact.
Stakeholders
Risk analysis
Those people and organizations who may
Systematic process to understand the
affect, be affected by, or perceive themselves
nature of and to deduce the level of risk.
to be affected by a decision, activity or risk.
1. Provides the basis for risk evaluation
1. The term ‘stakeholder’ may also
and decisions about risk treatment.
include ‘interested parties’ as defined
in AS/NZS ISO 14050 and AS/NZS ISO 14004.
Risk assessment
The overall process of risk identification,
risk analysis and risk evaluation.


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Climate Change Impacts

& Risk Management

© Commonwealth of Australia 2006

The Communications Director

IMPORTANT NOTICE - PLEASE READ

Prepared for the Australian Greenhouse Ofﬁce,

A 1.1 Purpose of this Guide The Guide is directed to:

1.1 to change, in ways that affect the planning

The Guide is consistent with the Australian and

8 Climate Change Impacts & Risk Management

Climate Change Impacts & Risk Management 9

Part A describes what the Guide is about. In

Part B outlines how to conduct an initial strategic

Part C deals with other considerations.

A summary checklist of tasks and hints and a

10 Climate Change Impacts & Risk Management

Climate change is likely to have pervasive affects.

Climate Change Impacts & Risk Management 11

2.2 heatwaves may increase the stress on

12 Climate Change Impacts & Risk Management

Source: Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Climate Change Impacts & Risk Management 13

The relationship between averages and extremes

Figure 2: Abrupt changes to dam inﬂows, Perth

14 Climate Change Impacts & Risk Management

> more frequent very hot days;

> more frequent and longer droughts;

> more frequent and more intense heavy rain;

> more intense tropical cyclones;

> more intense storms;

> higher peak wind speeds; and

> higher storm surges.

Figure 3: Non-linear damage functions from extreme events

400 25% increase in peak gust causes

Hazard Cause of Change in Hazard Resulting Change in Damage/Loss

Climate Change Impacts & Risk Management 15

Figure 4: Links between climate change and risk

Change to climate variable

16 Climate Change Impacts & Risk Management

Change to Examples of impacts

Climate Change Impacts & Risk Management 17

For the majority of users of this Guide, these

18 Climate Change Impacts & Risk Management

Figure 5: Steps in the risk management process

COMMUNICATE AND CONSULT

ESTABLISH IDENTIFY ANALYSE EVALUATE TREAT

MONITOR AND REVIEW

Climate Change Impacts & Risk Management 19

> is required to ensure that the process itself

20 Climate Change Impacts & Risk Management

Figure 6: Initial assessment and detailed analysis

MONITOR AND REVIEW MONITOR AND REVIEW

COMMUNICATE AND CONSULT

MONITOR AND REVIEW

Climate Change Impacts & Risk Management 21

Figure 7: The initial assessment is centred on a workshop process

COMMUNICATE AND CONSULT

Decision to BEFORE AT AFTER

ESTABLISH THE CONTEXT IDENTIFY THE RISKS TREAT THE RISKS