Porter's Five Forces: Threat of New Entrants

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Porter’s Five Forces

August 3, 2016 Administrator 0 Comments Bargaining Power of Buyers, Bargaining Power of Suppliers, Barriers to
Entry,Competition, Competitiveness, Concentration Rate, Industry Analysis, Porter's Five Forces, Rivalry, Threat of New
Entry, Threat of Substitute Products or Services
Porter’s Five Forces analysis is a framework that helps analyzing the level of competition within a
certain industry. It is especially useful when starting a new business or when entering a new industry
sector. According to this framework, competitiveness does not only come from competitors. Rather,
the state of competition in an industry depends on five basic forces: threat of new entrants,
bargaining power of suppliers, bargaining power of buyers, threat of substitute products or services,
and existing industry rivalry. The collective strenght of these forces determines the profit potential of
an industry and thus its attractiveness. If the five forces are intense (e.g. airline industry), almost no
company in the industry earns attractive returns on investments. If the forces are mild however (e.g.
softdrink industry), there is room for higher returns. Each force will be elaborated on below with the
aid of examples from the airline industry to illustrate the usage.

Figure 1: Five Forces Model

Threat of new entrants


New entrants in an industry bring new capacity and the desire to gain market share. The seriousness
of the threat depends on the barriers to enter a certain industry. The higher these barriers to entry, the
smaller the threat for existing players. Examples of barriers to entry are the need for economies of
scale, high customer loyalty for existing brands, large capital requirements (e.g. large investments in
marketing or R&D), the need for cumulative experience, government policies, and limited access to
distribution channels. More barriers can be found in the table below.
Example
The threat of new entrants in the airline industry can be considered as low to medium. It takes quite
some upfront investments to start an airline company (e.g. purchasing aircrafts). Moreover, new
entrants need licenses, insurances, distribution channels and other qualifications that are not easy to
obtain when you are new to the industry (e.g. access to flight routes). Furthermore, it can be expected
that existing players have built up a large base of experience over the years to cut costs and increase
service levels. A new entrant is likely to not have this kind of expertise, therefore creating a
competitive disadvantage right from the start. However, due to the liberalization of market access
and the availability of leasing options and external finance from banks, investors, and aircraft
manufacturers, new doors are opening for potential entrants. Even though it doesn’t sound very
attractive for companies to enter the airline industry, it is NOT impossible. Many low-cost carriers
like Southwest Airlines, RyanAir and EasyJet have succesfully entered the industry over the years by
introducing innovative cost-cutting business models, thereby shaking up original players like
American Airlines, Delta Air Lines and KLM.

Porter’s Five Forces Video Tutorial

Bargaining power of suppliers


This force analyzes how much power and control a company’s supplier (also known as the market of
inputs) has over the potential to raise its prices or to reduce the quality of purchased goods or
services, which in turn would lower an industry’s profitability potential. The concentration of
suppliers and the availability of substitute suppliers are important factors in determining supplier
power. The fewer there are, the more power they have. Businesses are in a better position when there
are a multitude of suppliers. Sources of supplier power also include the switching costs of companies
in the industry, the presence of available substitutes, the strength of their distribution channels and
the uniqueness or level of differentiation in the product or service the supplier is delivering.

Example
The bargaining power of suppliers in the airline industry can be considered very high. When looking
at the major inputs that airline companies need, we see that they are especially dependent on fuel and
aircrafts. These inputs however are very much affected by the external environment over which the
airline companies themselves have little control. The price of aviation fuel is subject to the
fluctuations in the global market for oil, which can change wildly because of geopolitical and other
factors. In terms of aircrafts for example, only two major suppliers exist: Boeing and Airbus. Boeing
and Airbus therefore have substantial bargaining power on the prices they charge.

Bargaining power of buyers


The bargaining power of buyers is also described as the market of outputs. This force analyzes to
what extent the customers are able to put the company under pressure, which also affects the
customer’s sensitivity to price changes. The customers have a lot of power when there aren’t many of
them and when the customers have many alternatives to buy from. Moreover, it should be easy for
them to switch from one company to another. Buying power is low however when customers
purchase products in small amounts, act independently and when the seller’s product is very different
from any of its competitors. The internet has allowed customers to become more informed and
therefore more empowered. Customers can easily compare prices online, get information about a
wide variety of products and get access to offers from other companies instantly. Companies can take
measures to reduce buyer power by for example implementing loyalty programs or by differentiating
their products and services.
Example
Bargaining power of buyers in the airline industry is high. Customers are able to check prices of
different airline companies fast through the many online price comparisons websites such as
Skyscanner and Expedia. In addition, there aren’t any switching costs involved in the process.
Customers nowadays are likely to fly with different carriers to and from their destination if that
would lower the costs. Brand loyalty therefore doesn’t seem to be that high. Some airline companies
are trying to change this with frequent flyer programs aimed at rewarding customers that come back
to them from time to time.

Threat of substitute products


The existence of products outside of the realm of the common product boundaries increases the
propensity of customers to switch to alternatives. In order to discover these alternatives one should
look beyond similar products that are branded differently by competitors. Instead, every product that
serves a similar need for customers should be taken into account. Energy drink like Redbull for
instance is usually not considered a competitor of coffee brands such as Nespresso or Starbucks.
However, since both coffee and energy drink fulfill a similar need (i.e. staying awake/getting
energy), customers might be willing to switch from one to another if they feel that prices increase too
much in either coffee or energy drinks. This will ultimately affect an industry’s profitability and
should therefore also be taken into account when evaluating the industry’s attractiveness.

Example
In terms of the airline industry, it can be said that the general need of its customers is traveling. It
may be clear that there are many alternatives for traveling besides going by airplane. Depending on
the urgency and distance, customers could take the train or go by car. Especially in Asia, more and
more people make use of highspeed trains such as Bullet Trains and Maglev Trains. Furthermore, the
airline industry might get some serious future competition from Elon Musk’s Hyperloop concept in
which passengers will be traveling in capsules through a vacuum tube reaching speed limits of 1200
km/h. Taken this altogether, the threat of substitutes in the airline industry can be considered at least
medium to high.

Rivalry among existing competitors


This last force of the Porter’s Five Forces examines how intense the current competition is in the
marketplace, which is determined by the number of existing competitors and what each competitor is
capable of doing. Rivalry is high when there are a lot of competitors that are roughly equal in size
and power, when the industry is growing slowly and when consumers can easily switch to a
competitors offering for little cost. A good indicator of competitive rivalry is the concentration
ratio of an industry. The lower this ration, the more intense rivalry will probably be. When rivalry is
high, competitors are likely to actively engage in advertising and price wars, which can hurt a
business’s bottom line. In addition, rivalry will be more intense when barriers to exit are high,
forcing companies to remain in the industry even though profit margins are declining. These barriers
to exit can for example be long-term loan agreements and high fixed costs.
Example
When looking at the airline industry in the United States, we see that the industry is extremely
competitive because of a number of reasons which include the entry of low cost carriers, the tight
regulation of the industry wherein safety become paramount leading to high fixed costs and high
barriers to exit, and the fact that the industry is very stagnant in terms of growth at the moment. The
switching costs for customers are also very low and many players in the industry are similar in size
(see graph below) leading to extra fierce competition between those firms. Taken altogether, it can be
said that rivalry among existing competitors in the airline industry is high.

(Source: United States Department of Transportation, 2016)


By looking at each competitive force individually, you are able to roughly map out the focal industry
and its attractiveness. Note that industries might differ in terms of attractiveness depending on the
country you are looking at. Government policies are for example likely to be different in each
country and also the amount of suppliers and buyers might vary from nation to nation. Porter’s Five
Forces is a good starting point to evaluate an industry but should not be used in isolation. You could
for example combine it with a Value Chain Analysisor through the VRIO Framework in order to get
a better sense of where your company’s competitive advantage is coming from and to better position
your company between the rivals. Moreover, Porter’s Five Forces is often combined with
the PESTEL analysis to give a good overview of the organization’s environment. Lastly, it should be
said that the framework also received some criticism from several authors. Some authors have for
instance argued that the model needs a 6th force called the ‘complementors’, in order to explain the
reasoning behind strategic alliances and joint ventures. This extended model is also known as
the Value Net Model. However, even though the criticism it got, Porter’s Five Forces is still one of
the most used frameworks for strategy development and is likely to remain that way in the near
future.
Figure 2: Porter’s Five Forces Factors

Full list of Porter’s Five Forces factors:


Threat of new entrants
 Economies of scale
 Product differentiation
 Brand identity/loyalty
 Access to distribution channels
 Capital requirements
 Access to latest technology
 Access to necessary inputs
 Absolute cost advantages
 Experience and learning effects
 Government policies
 Switching costs
 Expected retaliation from existing players
Bargaining power of suppliers
 Number of suppliers
 Size of suppliers
 Supplier concentration
 Availability of substitutes for the supplier’s products
 Uniqueness of supplier’s products or services (differentiation)
 Switching cost for supplier’s products
 Supplier’s threat of forward integration
 Industry threat of backward integration
 Supplier’s contribution to quality or service of the industry products
 Importance of volume to supplier
 Total industry cost contributed by suppliers
 Importance of the industry to supplier’s profit
Bargaining power of buyers
 Buyer volume (number of customers)
 Size of each buyer’s order
 Buyer concentration
 Buyer’s ability to substitute
 Buyer’s switching costs
 Buyer’s information availability
 Buyer’s threat of backward integration
 Industry threat of forward integration
 Price sensitivity
Threat of substitute products or services
 Number of substitute products available
 Buyer’s propensity to substitute
 Relative price performance of substitutes
 Perceived level of product differentiation
 Switching costs
 Substitute producer’s profitability & aggressiveness
Rivalry among existing competitors
 Number of competitors
 Diversity of competitors
 Industry concentration and balance
 Industry growth
 Industry life cycle
 Quality differences
 Product differentiation
 Brand identity/loyalty
 Switching costs
 Intermittent overcapacity
 Informational complexity
 Barriers to exit
Further readings:
 Porter, M.E. (1979). How Competitive Forces Shape Strategy. Harvard Business Review
 Porter, M.E. (2008). The Five Competitive Forces That Shape Strategy. Harvard Business Review

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