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    Assignment#3: DR - Azhar UL Haq

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    muzammal
    The document discusses various forecasting techniques for power generation from wind and solar energy systems. It summarizes persistence modeling, physical techniques like numerical weather prediction and satellite-based forecasting. It also discusses linear statistical approaches like autoregressive and autoregressive moving average models. Artificial neural network techniques including feedforward and recurrent neural networks are covered. The use of fuzzy logic models for wind speed forecasting is also summarized.

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    Assignment#3: DR - Azhar UL Haq

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    muzammal
    48 views9 pages
    The document discusses various forecasting techniques for power generation from wind and solar energy systems. It summarizes persistence modeling, physical techniques like numerical weather prediction and satellite-based forecasting. It also discusses linear statistical approaches like autoregressive and autoregressive moving average models. Artificial neural network techniques including feedforward and recurrent neural networks are covered. The use of fuzzy logic models for wind speed forecasting is also summarized.

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    The document discusses various forecasting techniques for power generation from wind and solar energy systems. It summarizes persistence modeling, physical techniques like numerical weather prediction and satellite-based forecasting. It also discusses linear statistical approaches like autoregressive and autoregressive moving average models. Artificial neural network techniques including feedforward and recurrent neural networks are covered. The use of fuzzy logic models for wind speed forecasting is also summarized.

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    48 views9 pages

    Assignment#3: DR - Azhar UL Haq

    Uploaded by

    muzammal
    The document discusses various forecasting techniques for power generation from wind and solar energy systems. It summarizes persistence modeling, physical techniques like numerical weather prediction and satellite-based forecasting. It also discusses linear statistical approaches like autoregressive and autoregressive moving average models. Artificial neural network techniques including feedforward and recurrent neural networks are covered. The use of fuzzy logic models for wind speed forecasting is also summarized.

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    Assignment#3

    Forecasting Techniques for Power Generation from Wind and


    Solar Energy System

    Subject: Selected topics of power system


    Submitted to:
    Dr.Azhar UL Haq

    Submitted By:
    Muhammad Muzammal Islam
    (CMS ID: 275348)
    Muhammad Javed
    (CMS ID: 273422)

    NUST College of Electrical and Mechanical Engineering


    Rawalpindi
    Abstract
    Power generation from solar and wind resources has increased in recent years and main
    challenges associated with integration of solar and wind energy generation with traditional power
    network are Variability and Ramp events. These challenges have their effect on network
    balancing, power management, power generation scheduling and commitments of power
    generating units. These challenges lead towards developing different forecasting techniques like
    physical variables, statistical variables, artificial intelligence and hybrid techniques.

    Introduction
    The primary purpose of predicting intermittent solar and wind energy generation is to find out as
    efficiently as possible the output power of power plants in a close term (15-30 minutes, or hour
    based and complete day time periods based). Reliable forecasting techniques reduce the cost and
    power consumption as well as improving the power factor.
    The recent study has shown that the reliability of integrated wind and solar irradiance system is
    twice greater than either technique used separately. Characteristics of solar power generation are
    very different from the wind power generation characteristics like variation in self correlation
    and enough power production during the mid time of the day.
    During the end duration of 2018, the global accumulated wind power production reached an
    amount of 600 GW and solar power generation capacity approached to 480 GW. The persistent
    forecasting technique assumes that the energy generation by solar irradiance and wind speed is
    same at present time step as previous time. Two broad classifications of forecasting techniques
    are physical and statistical.
    Recently the researches have main focus on building the forecasting tools for short term
    predictions ranging from few minutes to a few days-ahead in order to assure reliable grid
    operation. Complete day forecasting act as priory data for network operators to perform different
    tasks like load on/off, congestion management, scheduling, load flow prediction and reserves
    power generation allocation etc. Grid operation is largely effected by the effect of cloud motion
    on solar intensity and greater deviation of wind speed, that results in ramp events and variability.

    Reasons for Forecasting:


    Important goal of forecasting in renewable energy production is balancing of network operators
    (TSOs and DSOs), economic dispatch, Load flow analysis and congestion management.
    Forecasting is necessary because there is a crucial relation between wind speed and the wind
    power generation, it means a little change at wind speed can alter wind power considerably.
    Forecasting Techniques

    Persistence method:
    For short time forecasting the persistence method is used as a reference model where we assume
    that the solar irradiance at time “t” will absolutely the same as past value of time “t-1”.
    Persistence model is more reliable for a short forecast of 0-6 hours. If we increase forecast
    horizon from 6 hours then this model’s reliability reduces.

    𝐼𝑡 = 𝐼𝑡−1
    Where 𝐼𝑡 is solar irradiance at present time t.
    𝐼𝑡−1 is solar irradiance at past time t-1.

    Fig 1. Persistence Method Forecast

    Physical Techniques:

     Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)


     Satellite based (Cloud Imagery)
     Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP):
    In NWPs techniques we develop some physical variables and then form relationship between
    them. The physical variables are wind pressure, wind speed, temperature, humidity, topography,
    surface roughness etc. NWPs models consists of further sub-models which represent grid points.
    The output of sub-models shows the wind speed, shape and features of site. As far as solar
    irradiance forecasting is concerned there are fourteen (14) global NWPs models for this.

    Fig2. Schematic diagram of Numerical Weather Prediction


    https://www.researchgate.net/figure/General-structure-of-a-numerical-weather-prediction-NWP-
    b-conventional-chemical_fig1_280236082

     Satellite based (Cloud Imagery):


    The solar irradiance is highly effected by cloud optical depth and cloud cover. Therefore cloud
    assessment plays an important role in forecasting. The application of satellite and sky images is
    to evaluate the cloud structure in past time step and then showing the clouds motion and
    magnitude in future time step.
    Fig 3. Schematic diagram of forecasting based on sky images

    Linear Statistical Approaches:


    Linear statistic based models are members of class of time data series forecasting techniques.
    These statistical models are mainly based on historical time series data and this time series data
    is used to establish a relationship between different variables to predict their future values. Some
    particular statistical methods are Autoregressive (AR) based, Moving average based and
    Autoregressive-moving average ARMA.
    We used AR methods for the prediction of wind speed. The AR method used along with second
    order blind identification (SOBI). Because the results which obtained from AR-SOBI model has
    greater forecasting efficiency than that of persistence and separate autoregressive method.
    In case of solar irradiance the most of the statistic based methods that used for wind are also
    valid for solar irradiance. But in case of solar irradiance the input does not stationary and it
    varies according to cloud cover and cloud depth conditions. So, that’s why the author established
    by multiplicative ARMA methods to develop the global series radiation because ARMA models
    require stationary input. The other statistical technique that is used for solar irradiance is coupled
    AR and dynamical system (CARDS) model. This model is to be developed for time series solar
    radiation prediction for hourly and sub-hourly time scales. Hence solar data based on seasonal
    predictions so it is de-seasoned by using power spectrum analysis and Fourier series.

    Fig4. Schematic diagram of ARMA identification Model

    www.researchgate.net/figure/Block-diagram-of-the-auto-regressive-moving-average-ARMA-
    identification-model_fig12_226537209/download
    Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) Approaches:
    The main inspiration behind ANNs is the cognitive approach adapted by human brain to solve
    problems. The design of ANNs is such that they have self-learning ability from experience and
    drawing a relationship between input and output variables. ANNs are classifies into two
    categories, FFNN and RNN. In feed-forward NNs the computation flow is only from input to
    output (forward direction) but in Recurrent NNs there are feedback loops too which helps in
    modeling of several dynamic systems.
    FFNN was implemented with wind speed and wind direction asinput and wind power as an
    output and a very good performance was demonstrated. It was also demonstrated that the effect
    of wind direction on wind power is less than wind speed. A comparison of SARIMA and
    ADALINE NNs for forecasting wind speed in Mexico depicted that SARIMA model is better
    than ADALINE. In comparison between RBFNN (Radial basis function) and ERNN (Elman
    recurrent) predicted that RBFNN gives less error than ERNN. A comprehensive analysis of
    RBFNN, FFBP and ADALINE revealed that under different model architecture and parameters
    different accuracies were obtained for same dataset. To improve the learning process of NNs
    various techniques are used including GNN, PSO and multi-agent BPNN. A comparison between
    SVM and MLP demonstrated that SVMs provided better prediction as compared to MLP.
    For forecasting solar irradiance, based on MLP structure an ANN model was developed
    considering day-ahead predictions. In this model the solar irradiance and air temperature were
    taken as an input and day-ahead solar forecast as an output. As a result of this model, the
    correlation
    coefficient of performance prediction for clear sky days was 98% and for poor weather days it
    was 94%. Feed forward wavelet networks (combined effect of wavelet theory and NNs) were
    also used to solar irradiance forecasting. Adaptive wavelet-networks were used for solar
    irradiance forecasting in Algeria and they gave considerably good performance as compared to
    other NNs.
    In short, the main purpose of ANNs and SVMs is to learn and train the historic data trends to
    provide future forecast without any prior mathematical model.
    Fig5. FFNN

    Fig6. RNN
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_neural_network

    Fuzzy Logic Models:


    Fuzzy logic models based on generalization of classical logic models. These models usually
    based on non-linear designing of input to output variables and they consists of continuous range
    [0 1] of functions. The main application of fuzzy logic models is that we used them in such a
    place where exact models of systems are not known or there is an ambiguity present in
    formulation of systems.
    Fuzzy logic models based approaches are used for wind speed forecasting that consists of
    probabilistic data system. This probabilistic data system is used for modeling of random and
    deterministic sets in order to introduce the third probability dimension in model. We can predict
    the wind power from raw data that is based on fuzzy modeling. The algorithm used for
    calculation of the number of models based on fuzzy C-means and in order to develop the
    relationship between functions the BP-Algorithm is used. The efficiency of these fuzzy models
    can increase by wavelet transform (WT). Then Author used the combined technique of
    ARTMAP and wavelet transform (WT) for wind power prediction that is based on wind speed
    and wind direction information.
    Fuzzy-based approaches are also used for Solar irradiance forecasting .The author basically used
    the temperature and solar intensity forecast to design the fuzzy data models of solar irradiance
    system. In order to calculate the ambiguity in solar irradiance the interval type-2 fuzzy data
    based models are used. The main theme of using this interval type-2 fuzzy model is that it not
    only tells us about uncertainty range of solar irradiance but it also tells us about forecasting value
    that is useful in order to develop predictions intervals (PIs). In short fuzzy based approaches are
    helps us to map the non-linear data of wind and solar intensity without requiring historical data
    series.

    Fig7. Schematic diagram of Fuzzy Logic model

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