LAY THE DRAW

This is a very simple method anyone can follow and make good
money on.
You do not need to know anything about football or the teams.
All you need is an account with Betfair.
Basic Lay the Draw Explained
Here is an example of the method in action, with a very simple lay the
draw trade:
This is a match between Leverkusen and Roma in the Champions
League. This is a game we expect will have lots of goals based on the
teams’ recent form and scoring records.
The odds on the draw before the start of the match are 3.95 to lay.
So we click on the lay button (pink) at odds of 3.95 and place a £10
lay on the draw, giving us a liability of £29.50 if the game does finish
in a draw (but we will trade out before the end in any event).
Now the game goes in-running and we await the first goal.
Boom! After 3 minutes, Leverkusen score to make it 1-0.
Now just look at what happens to the odds of the draw on Betfair:
The odds on the draw have moved out to around 5.9 from their
original price of 3.95.
That means we can lock in a guaranteed profit of £3.28 (which
equates to 32.8% profit on our lay stake) by simply clicking on the
“Cash Out” button. Easy-peasy!

Best Exchange for Lay the Draw

I recommend the Betfair exchange for lay the draw trading as it is the
most liquid and covers the greatest number of matches.
Plus you can get sometimes get special offers such as cashback or free
bets.
What Sort of Games to Use Lay the Draw In ?
There are three principal criteria we focus on when selecting matches
to trade the lay the draw strategy in.
Criteria One – Good Liquidity
The first point we want to make sure of is that there is enough
liquidity for us to trade out our bet when a goal is scored. So we focus
on matches where at least £30,000 has been matched pre-kick-off in
the match odds market on Betfair or other exchange you use.
Here is an example:

In this game you will see that over £1.5m has been matched on the
game before kick-off, which is excellent liquidity and means it will be
a good game to trade.
Criteria Two – High-Scoring Matches
This strategy works in games where there are likely to be goals. It
therefore goes without saying that we want to select high-scoring
matches.
So how do we determine whether a match is likely to have any goals?
Well, we can go to a website like soccerstats.com, and have a look at
how many goals both teams score and concede per game and how
many of their games finish with more than 2 goals (i.e. over 2.5
goals).
An easier and quicker approach though is to look at the correct score
market for the same match. This will tell us the likelihood of there
being a goal.
Ideally we are looking for games where the odds on the game
finishing 0-0 – and therefore of our trade losing – are more than 15.0.
That means there is a less than 7% chance that the game will finish 0-
0 and gives us good prospects of a winning trade – over 93% in fact.
So we go to the correct score market and have a look at the 0-0 odds:
Here you will see the 0-0 is 16.5 to back. Excellent, that is what we
were looking for. This is potentially a game to lay the draw in.
We believe the real skill of lay the draw trading is in selecting
matches where teams are likely to win by big scores – 3-1 or 4-2.
The Dutch and German leagues are particularly good for such games,
but do take some time studying sites like soccerstats.com and finding
out which teams have an affinity for these high-scoring matches.
These are the matches that will really enable you to profit from laying
the draw

.
Criteria Three – Even Matches
The types of games you choose to use the lay the draw in will depend
to a certain extent on your approach to risk.
Personally, we like to stick to matches where the chances of losing are
as low as possible.
We therefore stick to matches where the draw is priced at between 3.5
and 5 before kick-off.
Here is an example:

This is quite an even game, in that the draw odds are 3.75, which
gives us scope to trade if there is a goal, particularly if the first goal
goes to Porto.
The reason for choosing at least 3.5 is that generally speaking, you
will struggle to find many matches where the match odds are below
3.5 if the 0-0 is above 15.0. If it is likely to be high scoring, then
naturally the chances of it being a draw – and particularly 0-0 – are
less. So it is factored into the draw price to some extent.
What we want to avoid though are those very small number of
matches where for one reason or another the teams have an interest in
playing for the draw.
Perhaps they will both qualify for the next round of a tournament with
a draw, or it is one of those “dodgy” matches you sometimes see in
Italy where the draw price is spectacularly lower than it should be
(like 2.0 for example).
In our experience, when the draw is priced very low and looks
suspiciously low, it is one to avoid. It could be fixed, or it could just
be a perception that it might be. But in any case it is best to avoid.
On the other side of things, we tend to stick to matches where the
draw odds are below 5.0 to try and ensure we make a profit – or at
worst a small loss – if there is a goal.
What tends to happen if there is a strong favourite in a match is that if
the underdog scores, the draw price will actually come in – leaving
you in a losing position on the trade.
In any situation where the draw odds are above 4, this will tend to
happen. So some people would stick to matches where the draw odds
are below 4.
We prefer though to include some matches between 4.0 and 5.0 where
we consider there is a strong chance the favourite will score first and
even if they don’t, the losses won’t be too bad. Anything above 5.0
though and you are talking about quite a significant loss if the
underdog scores first.
Summary
To summarise then, these are the three criteria to focus on when
selecting matches to trade. We focus on matches where:
Over £30,000 has been matched on the match odds market before
kick-off;
The odds of the draw are between 3.5 and 5; and
The odds of 0-0 are 15.0 or above.
What to do if it Goes Wrong – and Right
Of course, nothing in life is as simple as we would like and inevitably
some of the trades will go wrong. Here we set out our strategy for
dealing with things if they go wrong – and some suggestions for if
they go right.
There Is No Goal
Even when you pick matches where lots of goals are predicted, in
some instances there will be a deadlock and neither side is able to
break through.
The recommended option in such scenarios is to wait until the match
hits 70 minutes or the draw odds hit 2.0 (whichever is the earlier) and
then trade out.
Usually you will lose approximately 50% of your stake when this
happens. It is frustrating when it happens but is part of the game. If we
select matches carefully then it should not happen very often.
The other option is just to let the game run until full time and take the
full loss if it stays 0-0. This is risky however and in our experience, if
there have been no goals by 70 minutes in game then usually it will
finish 0-0, so we find it better to trade out.
The Underdog Scores First
In matches where the draw odds are above 4.0, then generally if the
underdog scores first, the draw odds will actually move inwards,
putting you in a losing position on your trade.
In such instances, you can either trade out straight away and accept
that it has gone against you this time.
Or you can stay in the game. The underdog may actually be
dominating the game and you think it is more likely they will score
again to make it 2-0, giving you a winning trade. Or it may be very
early on in the game, and there is a good chance the favourite may
turn things around and even go 2-1 up by half-time.
If you leave the bet running however, we suggest you trade out if it is
either 1-1 or still 1-0 to the underdog and the match is approaching 70
minutes. In such scenarios, if you leave the bet running then you are
leaving yourself open to losing your entire stake, which is obviously
what we want to avoid.
The “Meltatone” Strategy
Some people even suggest laying the underdog when they score first –
leaving a potential profit or at least break-even if the favourite does, as
expected, equalise. This strategy became known as the “meltatone” in
football trading circles.
However, we do not advocate such an approach. If the underdog
scores again, you will be an even worse position, as whilst the draw
odds will increase slightly, the underdog odds will crash.
If the match stays at 1-0, then the underdog odds will continue to fall
whilst the draw stays roughly the same, again leaving you in a worse
position.
No, we believe it is best not to risk making things worse, but to either
trade out when the underdog scores first or allow a little bit of time for
things to change, if the circumstances of the match suggest doing that.
Things Go Right – “Riding the Wave”
Of course in lots of instances the favourite will score first and we have
the option to either trade out there and then and take our profit, or to
let the bet run and see if they can score a second goal.
We usually look closely at how the match is going, how many chances
the favourite is creating and their record that season in going on and
winning games by more than one goal. If the stats look good, we will
let the game run until half time or a little after to see if they can bag a
second goal.
If they do then the draw odds will really rocket allowing you to pocket
a handsome profit from the trade.

Lay The Draw Summary

Lay the draw is perhaps the best known and most popular football
trading strategy on the betting exchanges.
It can be profitable, but like most betting and trading systems, it is as
much about the way you trade it as about the system itself.
If you select the right kinds of matches, with high-scoring teams that
like to play attacking football and win games 3-1, 4-2, 5-2 and so on,
then it can be work well, particularly if you “ride the wave” to half
time and allow the possibility of a 2-0 scoreline.
However, you have to stay disciplined and stick to the rules you
choose to trade the system. Do not go outside them and allow fear or
greed to dictate your decisions – that will be the quickest way to the
poor house.
Take your time, learn the system and allow your bank to grow slowly
and steadily over time. And most of all, only risk money you can
afford to lose. After all, even with a good strategy, there are no
guarantees of success in this game.