Harrod Domar Model

The Harrod-Domar
Model
Growth Economics
Roberto Pasca di Magliano
2015/2016
Harrod-Domar Model 
introduction
We owe the modern theory of growth to the economist Roy Harrod
with his article An Essay in Dynamic Theory (1939), inspired by the
nascent Keynesian doctrine
He developed what was then known as the Harrod-Domar model
Dynamic extension of the Keynesian analysis of static equilibrium
It has inspired a vast literature, in part still in place, and many

economic policy actions
Instead, the neoclassical model of growth, which will later be

developed, derived from the dominant influence of Alfred Marshall’s
Principles of Economy (1890) and was developed by Solow (later)
Unlike traditional, development and growth are natural phenomena
Static analysis, a typical neoclasssical hypothesis

Harrod-Domar Model  
Main questions for Harrod
•If the D Y => D I, which is the growth rate of Y which

ensures equality between planning I and S, so as to
ensure an increase in balance in the long term?
•Is there any guarantee that prevail growth rate necessary

to ensure such equality? Otherwise, what happens?
•In the static model of Keynes, if different from S I,

triggered by automatic adjustment multiplier. Instead, for
H., if overall productivity growth rate is not enough, what
happens?
Harrod-Domar Model  
Growth Rates
• To answer the question -> three growth rates:
• Actual rate of growth (g):
– what occurs concretely :
– g = s / c = (Y / Y) / I / D Y = D Y / Y
– equal to the ratio between the propensity to save and the current
capital-output ratio
• Warranted rate of growth (gw):
• one that leaves everyone satisfied with the necessary increase in

production (no more, no less), the necessary I:
– (gw) = D Y / Y = s / cr
– equal to the ratio between planned and propensity to consume the

extra capital required per unit of product
• Natural growth rate (gn):
– Y = L (Y / L)
– one that ensures growth that absorbs the available labor force in
relation to its production capacity
 
Actual rate of growth (Harrod)
g = s / c = (Y / Y) / (I / D Y) = D Y / Y
s is the propensity to save
c: incremental capital-output ratio, ie D K / D Y = I /

D Y, provided that S = I
So, since S = I, the rate of increase of the product:

g = (S / Y) / (I / D Y) = D Y / Y
Warranted rate of growth (Harrod)
(gw) = DY / Y = s / cr
According to the static model of K:
-S = sY (propensity to save)
-The application is given by the principle of acceleration, second coefficient cr:
cr = Kr D / D Y = I /D Y
-ie, the amount of additional capital or I needed to produce additional product units at a
given interest rate and given the technological conditions
-The question, then:
I D Y = cr
-Ensure that the planned S are equal to I planned, we have:
sY cr = D Y
-therefore:
D Y / Y = s / cr = gw
For dynamic equilibrium, the product should grow at this rate, that consumer spending
must equal the value of production
But, if shock-> deviation from equilibrium, it may happen that c <cr namely that the I
collapse;
this causes deficiencies in equipment etc.. Then manifests incentive D I, but in this case
the
current rate can grow beyond the guaranteed (c> cr), then surplus capital, and fall even
greater growth rate
Natural rate of growth 
(Domar’s contribution)
• Evesey Domar, an american, working independently, concluded by H.,

but in a different way
• I have a two-edged sword:
• increase demand via the multiplier
• increase supply via effects on capacity expansion
• So, what rate of growth because I offer growth = growth in demand

and you have full employment?
• D. introduces the natural rate of growth
• Y = L (Y / L)
• Two components, both exogenous
1. growth of the labor force (L)
2. growth of labor productivity (Y / L)
• A change in the level of I, D demand: DYd = D I /S and I increases if

the same offering: D Ys = Ip (p, capital productivity, D Y / I)
• In order to have DYd=D Ys, it is necessary that:
DI /s = Ip or DI / I = sp
• I.e. I has to grow at a rate such that it matches the propensity to save
and the productivity of capital
• The natural rate of growth is sp (equal 1/cr equilibrium Harrod)
• But, even if the growth ensures full utilization of capital, it is said also
to have full employment labor, which depends on the gn
Natural rate of growth  
• Role of the Harrod model:
1.Defines the rate of growth of production capacity that

ensures the long-term equilibrium between S and I in order
to have full employment
2.Fixing the upper limit of the current rate of growth that

would lead to a useless accumulation .
• If g> gw,
-g can continue to diverge until it reaches gn when all the

work is absorbed
-it can never exceed gn because not enough work
• In the long run, the relationship between gw and gn is

crucial
• Full employment of capital and labor requires:
g = gw = gn
• That is the famous "golden age" recovery of Cambridge’s

economist Joan Robinson
Deviations between gw and gn
gw> gn, excess capital and savings, tendency to depression due to lack of
•
work (g fails to stimulate growth in demand The amount of savings that

match with job)
Typical of the crisis of '29 and maybe of today’s
gw <gn, overwork, inflation (g grows more than necessary to match savings

for labor), unemployment and lack of capital investment
Typical of developing countries
example:
IfD population (2%) and productivity D L (3%) -> D workforce in terms of

efficiency (5%) while D propensity saving (9%), requires aD K / Y (3%):
gw = 6 (gn = 5)
Consequences:D work efficiency> Dcapital accumulation (rising

unemployment) and D saving> D I (inflationary pressure)
Unemployment and inflation together is not a paradox, but indicates that

there are opportunities for increased investment to grow D K / Y up to 4, so
that gw and gn can equalize in the long run
Vertical axis: growth. Horizontal axis: savings and investment
Growth and investment are related to K / Y (ie cr)
Propensity to save is independent from the growth
To seek to balance the policies are:
reduce labor supply or productivity so as to reduce gn gw
adopt expansionary monetary or fiscal policies to move S / Y to the right

or even stimulate labor-intensive techniques, so as to raise gw gn
Policy contributions
• Not only interpretation but indications of policy
• Eg. if country sets target growth of 5% and if the ratio K / Y is 3,

the need for savings and investment is 15% of GDP
Theoretical debate
• Of automatic adjustment related to the fact that L, L productivity,
savings and demand for K are determined independently and
HD themselves admit that in the long run propensity savings
may vary, although it tends towards adjustment (in depression ->
S may fall, in inflation -> grow)
• Cambridge School (Robinson, Nicholas Kaldor, Richard Kahn,

Luigi Pasinetti) -> emphasis on the functional distribution
• In depression (gw> gn), share profits on wages is reduced,

profits from savings> savings from wages, and this reduces the
overall propensity to save and reduces to gn gw
• In inflation (gn> gw), share of profits increases wages which

deepens and increases propensity S gw to gn
• In both cases, there are limits: the fall in profits acceptable for
businesses, the fall in wages acceptable for workers

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The Harrod-Domar

He developed what was then known as the Harrod-Domar model

Dynamic extension of the Keynesian analysis of static equilibrium

It has inspired a vast literature, in part still in place, and many

Instead, the neoclassical model of growth, which will later be

Unlike traditional, development and growth are natural phenomena

Static analysis, a typical neoclasssical hypothesis

•If the D Y => D I, which is the growth rate of Y which

•Is there any guarantee that prevail growth rate necessary

•In the static model of Keynes, if different from S I,

• To answer the question -> three growth rates:

• Actual rate of growth (g):

– what occurs concretely :

• Warranted rate of growth (gw):

• one that leaves everyone satisfied with the necessary increase in

– equal to the ratio between planned and propensity to consume the

• Natural growth rate (gn):

s is the propensity to save

c: incremental capital-output ratio, ie D K / D Y = I /

So, since S = I, the rate of increase of the product:

According to the static model of K:

-The application is given by the principle of acceleration, second coefficient cr:

given interest rate and given the technological conditions

-The question, then:

-Ensure that the planned S are equal to I planned, we have:

• Evesey Domar, an american, working independently, concluded by H.,

• I have a two-edged sword:

• increase demand via the multiplier

• increase supply via effects on capacity expansion

• So, what rate of growth because I offer growth = growth in demand

• D. introduces the natural rate of growth

• Two components, both exogenous

1. growth of the labor force (L)

2. growth of labor productivity (Y / L)

• A change in the level of I, D demand: DYd = D I /S and I increases if

• In order to have DYd=D Ys, it is necessary that:

• The natural rate of growth is sp (equal 1/cr equilibrium Harrod)

1.Defines the rate of growth of production capacity that

2.Fixing the upper limit of the current rate of growth that

-g can continue to diverge until it reaches gn when all the

-it can never exceed gn because not enough work

• In the long run, the relationship between gw and gn is

• Full employment of capital and labor requires:

• That is the famous "golden age" recovery of Cambridge’s

work (g fails to stimulate growth in demand The amount of savings that

Typical of the crisis of '29 and maybe of today’s

gw <gn, overwork, inflation (g grows more than necessary to match savings

Typical of developing countries

IfD population (2%) and productivity D L (3%) -> D workforce in terms of

Consequences:D work efficiency> Dcapital accumulation (rising

Unemployment and inflation together is not a paradox, but indicates that

Vertical axis: growth. Horizontal axis: savings and investment

Growth and investment are related to K / Y (ie cr)

Propensity to save is independent from the growth

To seek to balance the policies are:

reduce labor supply or productivity so as to reduce gn gw

adopt expansionary monetary or fiscal policies to move S / Y to the right

• Not only interpretation but indications of policy