Javier Orlando Parra Jaimes 212066 41 Phase 1

Theory of decisions
Phase 1 - Recognize and analyze the problem raised in an individual way
PRESENTED BY:
Javier Orlando Parra Jaimes
GROUP:41
Tutor
Paula Andrea Carvajal
UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL ABIERTA Y A DISTANCIA – UNAD
THEORY OF DECISIONS
INGENIERÍA INDUSTRIAL
ESCUELA DE CIENCIAS BÁSICAS, TECNOLOGÍA E INGENIERÍA
2019
1
Introduction
In this phase we will develop the theme the Laplace rule, and we will work on the
probability and statistical topics and reasonable decision-making. We will find
recognition of the main concepts related to probability, and through a series of
exercises it covers the different concepts referenced on other topics such as
graphing equations, algebraic graph method and matrices.
2
Solution problem 1
In a bag there are 10 balls numbered from 11 to 20, some red and others green.
Consider, then, a sample space that has 10 elements:
E' 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20'
With the above data, answer:
a) We take out without looking at a ball, what is the probability of getting a

prime number?
Probability prime number
Laplace rule: In the case of all results of a random experiment are unlikely,
Laplace defines the probability of an event A as the ratio between the number of
favorable outcomes for event A to occur in the experiment and the number of
possible results of the experiment.
So, we can summarize it with the following formula:
𝑁º 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑜𝑠 𝑓𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒𝑠 𝑎 𝐴
𝑃(𝐴) =
𝑁º 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑜𝑠 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒𝑠
3
𝑃(𝐴) = 4/10
Number of favorable cases
Prime numbers, 4 are the prime numbers within the possible results (Numbers
11, 13, 17, and 19 are primes)
Number of possible cases - 10 (All numbers 11-20)
The probability of getting a prime number between the 10 balls is 4/10 which is
simplified is 2/5.
Solution: P (prime number) .2/5
a) It is known that the probability of taking the green ball is 3/5. How many
balls are there in each color?
The number of possible cases is 10.
The number of favorable cases, that is, the number of green balls (our event) is
what we want to calculate.
We know that 3/5 is equivalent to 6/10. Therefore, if we apply the Laplace Act:
𝑁º 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑜𝑠 𝑓𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒𝑠 6
𝑃(𝑆𝑎𝑐𝑎𝑟 𝑏𝑜𝑙𝑎 𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑑𝑒) = =
𝑁º 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑜𝑠 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒𝑠 10
In total there are 6 green balls in the bag. So, we can deduce that the rest 4, are
red ones.
Solution: There are 6 green balls and 4 red balls
Solution problem 2
Exercise 2. Graphic solution of equations:
4
Using the algebraic graphical method, determine the cut-off point and solution
that satisfies the following systems of equations:
1. Y - -4X + 6
2. -2X + 1
For values of 1 and 0 of the variable x in each of the equations. That is, replacing
in each equation first if x takes value of 1 and if it takes the value of zero to graph
its lines.
Equalization Method
1. Expressions are matched and resolved
−2𝑥 + 1 = − 4𝑥 + 6
−2𝑥 + 4𝑥 = 6 − 1
2𝑥 = 5
5
𝑥=
2
𝑥 = 2.5
2. It is replaced in any equation of the first step
We replace x with the obtained value and resolves:𝑦 = −2𝑥 + 1
𝑦 = (−2 ∗ 2.5) + 1
5
𝑦 = −5 + 1
𝑦 = −4
Solution problem 3
Exercise 3. Matrix operations:
The Markov chains use probabilities of previous states, from there that the matrix
multiplication is very important to solve this type of problems. Given the following
matrices of size (n * m) or (m * m) solve the product of them.
0.3 0.4 0.3

1. 𝐴 = [0.1 0.5 0.4] 𝐵 = [0.5 0.3 0.2]
0.3 0.3 0.4
6
0.5 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.2
1. 𝐴 = [0.1 0.5 0.4] 𝐵 = [0.1 0.2 0.7]
0.6 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5
In the previous exercises, solve the matrix operation (A* B)
𝐶 =𝐴∗𝐵
0.3 0.4 0.3

𝐶 = [ 0.1 0.5 0.4 ] ∗ [0.5 0.3 0.2]
0.3 0.3 0.4
𝐶 = [0.4 0.31 0.29]
The components of matrix C are calculated as follows:
𝐶1,1 = 𝐴1,1 ∗ 𝐵1,1 + 𝐴1,2 ∗ 𝐵2,1 + 𝐴1,3 ∗ 𝐵3,1
𝐶1,1 = (0.1) ∗ (0.3) + (0.5) ∗ (0.5) + (0.4) ∗ (0.3) = (0.03) + (0.25) + (0.12) = 0.4
𝐶1,2 = 𝐴1,1 ∗ 𝐵1,2 + 𝐴1,2 ∗ 𝐵2,2 + 𝐴1,3 ∗ 𝐵3,2
𝐶1,2 = (0.1) ∗ (0.4) + (0.5) ∗ (0.3) + (0.4) ∗ (0.3) = (0.04) + (0.15) + (0.12)
= 0.31
𝐶1,3 = 𝐴1,1 ∗ 𝐵1,3 + 𝐴1,2 ∗ 𝐵2,3 + 𝐴1,3 ∗ 𝐵3,3
7
𝐶1,3 = (0.1) ∗ (0.3) + (0.5) ∗ (0.2) + (0.4) ∗ (0.4) = (0.03) + (0.1) + (0.16) = 0.29
Matrix Exercise 2
𝐶 =𝐴∗𝐵
0.5 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.2

𝐶 = [0.1 0.5 0.4] ∗ [0.1 0.2 0.7]
0.6 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5
0.23 0.38 0.39

𝐶 = [0.16 0.27 0.57]
0.23 0.39 0.38
The components of matrix C are calculated as follows:
𝐶1,1 = 𝐴1,1 ∗ 𝐵1,1 + 𝐴1,2 ∗ 𝐵2,1 + 𝐴1,3 ∗ 𝐵3,1
𝐶1,1 = (0.5) ∗ (0.3) + (0.2) ∗ (0.1) + (0.3) ∗ (0.2) = (0.15) + (0.02) + (0.06)
= 0.23
𝐶1,2 = 𝐴1,1 ∗ 𝐵1,2 + 𝐴1,2 ∗ 𝐵2,2 + 𝐴1,3 ∗ 𝐵3,2
𝐶1,2 = (0.5) ∗ (0.5) + (0.2) ∗ (0.2) + (0.3) ∗ (0.3) = (0.25) + (0.04) + (0.09)
= 0.38
𝐶1,3 = 𝐴1,1 ∗ 𝐵1,3 + 𝐴1,2 ∗ 𝐵2,3 + 𝐴1,3 ∗ 𝐵3,3
𝐶1,3 = (0.5) ∗ (0.2) + (0.2) ∗ (0.7) + (0.3) ∗ (0.5) = (0.1) + (0.14) + (0.15) = 0.39
𝐶2,1 = 𝐴2,1 ∗ 𝐵1,1 + 𝐴2,2 ∗ 𝐵2,1 + 𝐴2,3 ∗ 𝐵3,1
8
𝐶2,1 = (0.1) ∗ (0.3) + (0.5) ∗ (0.1) + (0.4) ∗ (0.2) = (0.04) + (0.05) + (0.08)
= 0.16
𝐶2,2 = 𝐴2,1 ∗ 𝐵1,2 + 𝐴2,2 ∗ 𝐵2,2 + 𝐴2,3 ∗ 𝐵3,2
𝐶2,2 = (0.1) ∗ (0.5) + (0.5) ∗ (0.2) + (0.4) ∗ (0.3) = (0.05) + (0.1) + (0.12) = 0.27
𝐶2,3 = 𝐴2,1 ∗ 𝐵1,3 + 𝐴2,2 ∗ 𝐵2,3 + 𝐴2,3 ∗ 𝐵3,3
𝐶2,3 = (0.1) ∗ (0.2) + (0.5) ∗ (0.7) + (0.4) ∗ (0.5) = (0.02) + (0.35) + (0.2) = 0.57
𝐶3,1 = 𝐴3,1 ∗ 𝐵1,1 + 𝐴3,2 ∗ 𝐵2,1 + 𝐴3,3 ∗ 𝐵3,1
𝐶3,1 = (0.6) ∗ (0.3) + (0.3) ∗ (0.1) + (0.1) ∗ (0.2) = (0.18) + (0.03) + (0.02)
= 0.23
𝐶3,2 = 𝐴3,1 ∗ 𝐵1,2 + 𝐴3,2 ∗ 𝐵2,2 + 𝐴3,3 ∗ 𝐵3,2
𝐶3,2 = (0.6) ∗ (0.5) + (0.3) ∗ (0.2) + (0.1) ∗ (0.3) = (0.3) + (0.06) + (0.03) = 0.39
𝐶3,3 = 𝐴3,1 ∗ 𝐵1,3 + 𝐴3,2 ∗ 𝐵2,3 + 𝐴3,3 ∗ 𝐵3,3
𝐶3,3 = (0.6) ∗ (0.2) + (0.3) ∗ (0.7) + (0.1) ∗ (0.5) = (0.12) + (0.21) + (0.05)
= 0.38
9
Conclusions
This work has allowed me to study more thoroughly the topic of probabilities and
matrices by reviewing these topics already seen in previous courses allowing us
to reinforce and resume concepts and topics and analyze them in an analytical
way.
10
Bibliography
Dynkin, E. (1982). Markov Processes and Related Problems of Analysis:Oxford,

UK: Mathematical Institute Editorial. Retrieved from
http://bibliotecavirtual.unad.edu.co:2048/login?url=http://search.ebscohost.com/l
ogin.aspx?direct=true&db=e000xww&AN=552478&lang=es&site=ehost-live
Prisner, E. (2014). Game Theory.Washington, District of Columbia, USA:

Mathematical Association of America Editorial. Retrieved from
http://bibliotecavirtual.unad.edu.co:2051/login.aspx?direct=true&db=nlebk&AN=
800654&lang=es&site=eds-live
11

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Theory of decisions

Phase 1 - Recognize and analyze the problem raised in an individual way

Javier Orlando Parra Jaimes

Paula Andrea Carvajal

UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL ABIERTA Y A DISTANCIA – UNAD

ESCUELA DE CIENCIAS BÁSICAS, TECNOLOGÍA E INGENIERÍA

Consider, then, a sample space that has 10 elements:

With the above data, answer:

a) We take out without looking at a ball, what is the probability of getting a

Probability prime number

So, we can summarize it with the following formula:

Number of favorable cases

Number of possible cases - 10 (All numbers 11-20)

Solution: P (prime number) .2/5

The number of possible cases is 10.

Solution: There are 6 green balls and 4 red balls

Exercise 2. Graphic solution of equations:

1. Expressions are matched and resolved

2. It is replaced in any equation of the first step

We replace x with the obtained value and resolves:𝑦 = −2𝑥 + 1

Exercise 3. Matrix operations:

0.3 0.4 0.3

In the previous exercises, solve the matrix operation (A* B)

0.3 0.4 0.3

𝐶 = [0.4 0.31 0.29]

The components of matrix C are calculated as follows:

𝐶1,1 = 𝐴1,1 ∗ 𝐵1,1 + 𝐴1,2 ∗ 𝐵2,1 + 𝐴1,3 ∗ 𝐵3,1

𝐶1,2 = 𝐴1,1 ∗ 𝐵1,2 + 𝐴1,2 ∗ 𝐵2,2 + 𝐴1,3 ∗ 𝐵3,2

𝐶1,3 = 𝐴1,1 ∗ 𝐵1,3 + 𝐴1,2 ∗ 𝐵2,3 + 𝐴1,3 ∗ 𝐵3,3

0.5 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.2

0.23 0.38 0.39

The components of matrix C are calculated as follows:

𝐶1,1 = 𝐴1,1 ∗ 𝐵1,1 + 𝐴1,2 ∗ 𝐵2,1 + 𝐴1,3 ∗ 𝐵3,1

𝐶1,2 = 𝐴1,1 ∗ 𝐵1,2 + 𝐴1,2 ∗ 𝐵2,2 + 𝐴1,3 ∗ 𝐵3,2

𝐶1,3 = 𝐴1,1 ∗ 𝐵1,3 + 𝐴1,2 ∗ 𝐵2,3 + 𝐴1,3 ∗ 𝐵3,3

𝐶2,1 = 𝐴2,1 ∗ 𝐵1,1 + 𝐴2,2 ∗ 𝐵2,1 + 𝐴2,3 ∗ 𝐵3,1

𝐶2,2 = 𝐴2,1 ∗ 𝐵1,2 + 𝐴2,2 ∗ 𝐵2,2 + 𝐴2,3 ∗ 𝐵3,2

𝐶2,3 = 𝐴2,1 ∗ 𝐵1,3 + 𝐴2,2 ∗ 𝐵2,3 + 𝐴2,3 ∗ 𝐵3,3

𝐶3,1 = 𝐴3,1 ∗ 𝐵1,1 + 𝐴3,2 ∗ 𝐵2,1 + 𝐴3,3 ∗ 𝐵3,1

𝐶3,2 = 𝐴3,1 ∗ 𝐵1,2 + 𝐴3,2 ∗ 𝐵2,2 + 𝐴3,3 ∗ 𝐵3,2

𝐶3,3 = 𝐴3,1 ∗ 𝐵1,3 + 𝐴3,2 ∗ 𝐵2,3 + 𝐴3,3 ∗ 𝐵3,3

Dynkin, E. (1982). Markov Processes and Related Problems of Analysis:Oxford,

Prisner, E. (2014). Game Theory.Washington, District of Columbia, USA:

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