Research

Calamos Equity Valuation Process:

Determining Cash Flows &
Valuing a Business
By Nick P. Calamos, CFA

The value of any security is a function of the underlying business’s cash flows and the quality of those cash flows. This paper

outlines Calamos Investments’ research process for determining a company’s business valuation. We will detail how Calamos

research uncovers the economic profits of a company and how our research determines the quality of the cash flows, the return

on capital, and finally, the equity’s valuation.

About the Author

Nick P. Calamos, CFA, co-chief

investment officer and chief mar-

ket strategist, oversees research

and portfolio management for

Calamos Investments. He is a rec-

ognized authority on convertible

instruments and convertible arbitrage. His book, Convertible

Arbitrage: Insights and Techniques for Successful Hedging,

was released in July 2003 and is used as a textbook in a num-

ber of investment management curriculums. Nick joined the

firm in 1983.
 Calamos Equity Valuation Process:
Determining Cash Flows & Valuing a Business
Warren Buffett, president of Berkshire Hathaway, is probably The mathematical exercise [of the cash flow
the greatest investor of the last 30 years. In this paper, the approach] is very similar to valuing a bond’s value.
...To determine the value of a business, the analyst
approach offered toward business valuation is similar to his.
estimates the ‘coupons’ that the business will
Below is an excerpt from one of Mr. Buffett’s annual meetings generate for a period into the future, and then
that discusses his approach toward valuing a company. discounts all of those coupons back to the present.2

Growth in earnings or sales volume or whatever is This line of reasoning provides a framework for estimating
a factor which can enhance or diminish—people
“equity coupons” and determining the intrinsic business value.
usually think in terms of enhancing intrinsic value.
The value of any purchase made for investment Equity coupons represent excess cash flow generated by the
purposes is essentially the discounted [value] of all company and the payment to investors that may take the form
cash that will ever be received between now and of dividends or share repurchases. Unlike bonds, these coupons
judgment day from that commitment.
are variable and there is no principal repayment or maturity
And you face (a) determining the cash flows in and date. Our analysts must estimate the coupon payments well
out (you have to put money in before you take it into the future and discount them at the appropriate rate.
out sometimes) and (b) you have to figure out
the discount rate. The growth and non-growth
or shrinkage of the business is a calculation that
goes into determining those items which you’re
discounting back to the present value. It does not matter if the company being analyzed

That’s all you’re doing as an investor—whether is an energy company or computer manufacturer

you’re buying Coca-Cola or you’re buying stock in
PS Group or whatever it may be. We’re essentially or any other type of business; a careful assessment
thinking what’s the cash payment capacity of that
asset as far as we can see, how sure do we feel of how well a company employs capital becomes
about it (the proper discount rate) and how does it
compare to alternative choices. That’s what’s going the measure against which all businesses must
through our minds.
ultimately be judged.
Growth can be a negative. If you’ve got to put more
money into a business earning sub-par return on
capital because it has to grow, then that’s a minus...
Growth is most positive when it takes no capital at
all and produces significant returns.l Our approach to business valuation must attempt to put all
businesses on a comparable basis. For example, one common
Mr. Buffett’s definition of a business’s value serves as an outline denominator among all businesses is the employment of capital.
for making such determinations. In fact, this business valuation This capital can be in a number of different forms, including
approach is a direct descendent of the approach developed by human, monetary, plant and equipment, natural resources, or
John Burr Williams in the 1930s: any other tangible or intangible asset. But each type of capital


is purchased for cash or monetary capital, making business Figure 1: Accounting Adjustments to Determine
evaluation somewhat easier because it makes all businesses Capital Employed in a Business
economic equivalents. It does not matter if the company being
Capital = Long-term debt
analyzed is an energy company or computer manufacturer or
+ Short-term debt
any other type of business; a careful assessment of how well
a company employs capital becomes the measure against + Preferred stock

which all businesses must ultimately be judged. As a result, the + Common equity
firm that earns the highest return on total invested capital is + Minority interests
generally the best business.
+ Present value of all future annual
operating leases

+ Accumulated goodwill
Cash Inflows: Capital Employed amortization

The first step in determining a company’s intrinsic value is + Cumulative unusual losses
(minus gains) adjusted for taxes
determining the cash flows into and out of the business. If a
+ Price paid in excess of asset value
company has used only equity financing and owns its plant and under pooling
equipment, then the capital employed in the business will be
+ Deferred tax reserves
largely the retained earnings and equity capital raised.
+ LIFO (last in, first out) reserves
Most businesses use a mix of financing methods, and there are + Capitalized research and
often accounting discrepancies that obscure the cash flows out development

of the business. It is generally agreed that all debt financing,

equity financing, minority interests, and retained earnings are Although other additions to capital employed may be made
considered part of the total capital employed. outside of those outlined, the significant ones are listed.
In an effort to be brief, we will simply state that other such
The starting points for determining capital inflows or investments
considerations include quasi-equity accounts. Items such
(which we will refer to as capital) are very straightforward and
as deferred income, deferred gains, bad debt reserves, and
easily found on any balance sheet.
other deferred or reserve accounts all represent capital that is
employed on behalf of these shareholders, and is thus expected
Capital = Long-term debt
to generate a return to shareholders.
+ Short-term debt

+ Preferred stock Likewise, many companies have pension liabilities and post-
retirement health-care liabilities. These items must be considered
+ Common equity
debt and added to the capital employed in the business as a
+ Minority interests
cash inflow item. This will reduce the return on capital and
shareholder value.
But there are some less obvious items that must be included
as part of the capital employed in the business. For our capital
models, we correct for distortions that result from certain Cash Outflows: Economic Profit
accounting measures. Figure 1 lists the adjustments we make
The next step is to determine the cash-generating ability of
to determine the capital employed in a business.
the firm’s assets from now until eternity, which means cash
outflows. Since reported corporate earnings are not the same


Calamos Equity Valuation Process

as cash profits, we have to make a number of accounting R&D expenses are not just an expense, but also an investment
adjustments. Earnings reported by any company will have many and should be recognized as such.
assumptions, estimates, expenses, and deferrals that obscure a
R&D is not the only expense that must be recognized as an
firm’s true cash-generating ability.
investment and not just as a cost with no future return; some
marketing expenses also may be considered investments. For
GAAP Distortions
example, a multinational soft drink company was spending
Generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) were developed money advertising in India before it could sell its products
by accountants for accountants and have little relationship to there. The company invested this money knowing that the
a firm’s true economic earnings. We have found that a firm’s dollars spent would help build brand recognition and consumer
net income may understate cash earnings, on average, by demand for the time when it had approval to sell in India.
45%. Adjustments to GAAP on the cash outflows side of the
equation can help us value a business’s true economic profit to
ultimately arrive at the true economic value of a firm. CASH-INFLOW MODEL

We are concerned with economic earnings, not accounting Evaluating the cash-generating ability of a company begins with
earnings. Under GAAP, a company can use different a careful analysis of the company’s statement of cash flows.
depreciation schedules, defer income taxes that will likely The cash outflows that a firm generates can be measured
never be paid, expense research and development, and use by working through the non-cash charges and adjusting the
debt financing. Furthermore, earnings are subject to other financial statements as outlined in the discussion on determining
factors that make reported earnings non-comparable. Equally the cash flows from the business.
as disconcerting is that a company’s income statement reflects
only the cost of a firm’s debt financing and not the cost of Cash Basis Accounting
equity capital. To determine a firm’s true economic earnings, the financial
statements of all companies must be revised from accrual basis
Return on Capital to cash-on-cash-basis accounting. Accrual accounting has very
We are concerned with the firm’s economic profits, that little to do with true cash flow. When we revise statements to
is, with profits in excess of all capital costs and adjusted a cash basis, we also remove the firm’s financing structure from
for accounting distortions. Profits should be evaluated as a the picture because the financing decision of a firm has nothing
percentage of capital employed to generate those profits. to do with its ability to generate economic profits. At this point,
We find measuring economic profit return on capital better we are not concerned with how the business financed its capital,
reflects reality in our analysis. but rather with the returns that such capital generates for its
shareholders. Later, we will consider the financing decision
when determining the rate used to discount all of the firm’s
Research and Development Investment
expected future economic profits back to the current period.
Under GAAP accounting, a company must expense research
and development (R&D) costs. Therefore, if you have two Since a firm’s decision to use debt in the capital structure will
firms in the same industry with exactly the same revenue and affect its tax expense, we assume for the moment that all
operating costs, but one firm invests in R&D and the other firms pay taxes as if they are financed only with equity capital.
firm does not, the firm that makes the R&D investment will Adjusting all firms in this manner puts them on the same
report lower earnings. However, firms invest in R&D to remain basis and helps reveal their true economic profits before the
competitive and because of the potential return R&D represents. financing decision is considered. Therefore, interest expense on


debt is considered non-deductible for tax purposes. Accounting as well as after the company’s growth expenditures. Unlike a
profits are higher if a firm chooses debt capital instead of equity corporate raider, we do not have the ability to purchase the
capital to grow its business, but the firm’s ability to produce firm, change growth plans, and alter the company’s life cycle
good returns on capital has nothing to do with the decision to capture the cash flow before growth expenditures. Free cash
to finance that capital with debt or equity. An estimate of
the interest component of any operating lease must also be
included, which makes the decision to lease or buy an asset
We are concerned with the company as a going concern, and
economically equivalent.
therefore define free cash flow as the cash operating income
The revised statement of cash flows includes interest income and
operating interest expense on a fully taxable basis. The objective after tax and necessary capital expenditures, as well as after
of the adjustments made to the GAAP income statement is to
determine the true cash-generating ability of the business. the company’s growth expenditures.
Non-cash charges and other deferred accounting transactions
(goodwill amortization, deferred taxes, bad debt reserves, LIFO
reserves) are recognized when actual cash is disbursed instead
flow represents the owner’s repayment for taking the risk and
of when GAAP accrual accounting determines it should be.
employing capital in the business, and is the cash that is available
Depreciation is added back, but necessary-maintenance capital
to all investors in the company. The company can pay out this
expenditures are subtracted. It is essential for our analysts
cash in dividends, repurchase stock, pay down debt or increase
to determine the ongoing maintenance expenditures that a
reinvestment in the business to grow it further and ultimately
company must make to maintain its operations before looking at
pay investors a higher dividend in the future.
the decision to grow them. If a company’s depreciation expense
is in excess of necessary capital maintenance expenditures, then
Return on Capital Defined
the residual is a return on capital. The portion equal to necessary
maintenance, however, represents a return of capital. The net result of the restated operating profits after tax is a
cash-on-cash accounting that makes all companies comparable.
The same accounting adjustments made to determine the cash At this point, we are ready to determine the return on total
outflows or capital employed in the business also show up on capital that the firm generates. This is an important component
the cash inflow side of the analysis. The significant difference is in determining its intrinsic value.
that the cash outflow side typically adds back prior write-offs,
amortization, or deferred account changes from the past, while A company’s return on invested capital can be found by
the cash inflow analysis deals only with the current period (year) dividing the adjusted operating profit by the adjusted capital as
changes in these items. determined by the previous discussions:

Some investors will recognize this final operating cash as Cash operating profit
adjusted for tax
free cash flow. This is the cash available to investors before Return on invested capital =
Adjusted capital invested
management’s decision to grow the business. This may be the
free cash flow definition that corporate raiders are focused on
because they aim to purchase the whole company and alter its Evaluating a business’s return on invested monetary capital

future growth plans. We are concerned with the company as a allows for across-the-board relative comparisons. In each case,

going concern, and therefore define free cash flow as the cash a company’s return on capital can be compared to its cost of

operating income after tax and necessary capital expenditures, capital to determine the “excess return on investment,” or cash


Calamos Equity Valuation Process

value added. This analysis considers the balance sheet and the To determine a company’s economic profit, the return on
income statement. Some companies will have natural capital- invested capital must be compared to the firm’s total cost of
cost advantages arising from location, size, governmental capital. If a firm generates returns on capital in excess of the
subsidies, or a host of other reasons. firm’s total cost of capital, then an economic profit exists.

The easy part of the model used to estimate a business’s Cash flow return on Cost of Economic
intrinsic value is the math and accounting. The difficult part total invested capital > total capital = profit

is determining the company’s future cash outflows based on

a thorough understanding of the business and its competitive This economic profit, not the accounting profit, is what drives
advantages, if any. the business value. If a company earns an accounting profit but
does not earn an economic profit, earnings may be in excess of
The world’s nations and companies all compete for capital.
debt costs but do not represent a return in excess of both debt
The company that demonstrates its ability to earn high rates
and equity costs.
of return on the capital employed will also be the company
that builds wealth for its investors. We believe that a company At this point, it is important to determine the company’s
must have economic characteristics that allow each dollar of cost of capital or, to put it another way, the required return
capital employed to eventually translate into more than a dollar on investment the company must earn before an economic
in market value. profit is realized. The firm’s after-tax cost of debt is generally
easy to determine because, in most cases, the company has
interest-bearing debt on its books. Determining the firm’s
cost of equity capital is a more confusing issue, though,
Evaluating a business’s return on invested monetary capital because GAAP accounting does not provide for this cost. It is
essential to remember that the equity cost should represent
allows for across-the-board relative comparisons. the opportunity cost of investing. Investors who provide equity
capital to a business expect their investment to earn at least a
normal return. If the business is unable to generate returns at
this level, then investors will not continue to supply capital to
This can be accomplished consistently only if the business is
the firm or will sell their equity stake. The opportunity cost of
generating returns in excess of its capital costs. The companies
capital must be adjusted for the various levels of risk, meaning
that successfully employ capital will find that each dollar in new
that a higher discount rate should be used for companies that
capital employed in the business will generate two or three
have a less reliable stream of cash flows.
dollars in market value for its shareholders. Many successful
companies have been known to generate market value multiples After completing the above, the firm’s capital financing decision
on each dollar of capital employed of better than five to one. comes into play in the analysis. Firms with a considerable amount
of debt in their capital structure most likely have a lower credit
At approximately 11%, the return on invested capital for the
rating and therefore a higher cost of debt capital. High amounts
average American corporation has been remarkably stable
of leverage may reduce a business’s flexibility and impair its
during the post-World War II period. Returns are primarily a
ability to take advantage of unforeseen opportunities that may
function of the industry the business operates within and the
occur in the future. As a result, the equity capital of a highly
ability of a company to differentiate its products or services.
leveraged firm may need to be discounted at a higher rate.
A wide range of returns on invested capital exists between
industry groups. The final step involves multiplying the cost of each portion of the
firm’s capital by its appropriate weight in the capital structure.


For example, if a firm has a cost of debt of 9%, a tax rate of 35%, We agree with Mr. Buffett’s approach to valuing equities as if
a cost of equity of 12%, and debt equaling 30% of capital, then they were actually bonds with the coupon not guaranteed but
the firm’s weighted cost of capital (WCOC) becomes: instead determined in the future based on the firm’s profitability.
To value equities with this approach, we estimate these “coupon
WCOC = ([Debt cost x (1 - tax rate)] x debt % in capital] payments” and the likelihood of their occurrence.
+ (equity cost x equity % in capital)
During the post-WWII period, American businesses have
WCOC = [.09 x (1-0.35) x .3] + (.12 x .7) = .1016 or 10.16% generated returns on capital of approximately 11%. If the
company is trading right at its capital value, this is the same as
Since the company’s cash flows are to occur over the life of the a bond coupon payment of 11%. The capital value or capital
firm, it is inappropriate to assume that companies can finance employed becomes the par value on the equity “bond.” If a
more cheaply than the government. The 30-year U.S. Treasury company generates an 11% return on capital but trades for
represents the risk-free rate of long-term financing. twice the capital value, then the equity yield is only 5.5%. This
level of return may be attractive if the company has a cost
We use the long-term rate of interest plus a small premium as a of capital below 11%, is improving its returns on capital and
starting point for our discount rate. The more comfortable we growing rapidly or, alternatively, if long-term interest rates are
are with a business and the better we understand the firm’s well below 5.5%.
present and future ability to generate an economic profit, the
lower the discount rate we use to determine the business’s
intrinsic value. We then attempt to purchase companies at a INTRINSIC BUSINESS VALUE
significant discount to intrinsic value.
Since most firms are going concerns and growing, or shrinking
Some may argue that the 30-year Treasury bond is very sensitive and shedding non-profitable operations, our research valuation
to interest-rate changes and that equity evaluation should not estimates take into account the growth or non-growth in the
incorporate this interest-rate volatility. Therefore, discounting business. Since a firm’s economic profits are what drive the
a company’s total cost of capital at some premium to the long value of a business, then a firm that can generate an economic
bond rate is inappropriate. Many investors assume equities profit while growing is worth more than a firm that is growing
are not nearly as interest-rate sensitive as bonds. We believe and not earning an economic profit. In fact, if a firm continues
bonds and equities derive their value from discounting future to grow even though it is earning returns below its cost of
expected cash flows and that both are closely linked to interest capital, it is actually reducing the total value of that firm.
rates. We defer to Mr. Buffett in this debate.
The variable-growth business valuation model we use is a
The value of every business—the value of a farm, an multiple-stage discounting model. The model will include a
apartment house or any other economic asset—is
life cycle for growth in the company’s capital such as a rapid-
100% sensitive to interest rates. That’s because all
you’re doing when you’re investing is transferring growth stage, slow-growth stage, and no-growth stage. It
money to someone now in exchange for a stream also incorporates multiple stages for the expected life cycle for
of money which you expect to come back in the returns on capital.
future. And the higher interest rates are, the less
that present value will be. So every business by its In business, as in nature, there is a strong tendency for market
nature—whether it’s Coca-Cola or Gillette or Wells
returns to revert toward the mean. A company’s returns are
Fargo—in its intrinsic valuation is 100% sensitive to
interest rates.3 largely a function of the industry it is in, although by no means
does this presume that the industry is the only important
component in determining the returns a company can generate.


Calamos Equity Valuation Process

But a business generating high returns will often attract new Figure 2: Discounting model
competitors as well as copy-cats that will put downward pressure
Value = Capital invested at beginning of forecast
on returns. A business generating high returns on capital will
also attract capital, and the sheer amount of the capital being + Present value of forecasted economic
profits for the forecast period
redeployed may force returns toward the industry average.
+ Present value of forecasted economic profit
Likewise, a business generating returns well below its industry after forecaster period (perpetuity)
average may be forced to downsize, replace management, and
restructure in an effort to drive returns toward the industry EP T+1 (EP T+1 )(g/ROIC – WCOC)
Value = +
average and—hopefully—above its cost of capital. WCOC WCOC(WCOC – g)

The life cycle for growth in a firm’s capital or operating assets is
very similar to the reversion to the mean explained above. Our
Where: EP = economic profit
model assumes that in time the business returns will revert to WCOC = weighted average cost of capital
the industry average and that the growth rate in the business “g”= expected growth rate in EP
will also revert to the industry average. We estimate how quickly ROIC = return on net new capital invested

this will occur, based on our understanding of the industry,

the company’s competitive advantages, and the quality of the
End Notes
business’s investment opportunities. The final discounting model Quotations are excerpted with permission from previously published material.
l
Outstanding Investor Digest, Inc. All rights reserved.
incorporates many factors and allows for multiple growth, 2
 obert G. Hagstrom, Jr., The Warren Buffett Way. New York: John Wiley & Sons,
R
return, and cost-of-capital assumptions (see Figure 2). Inc., 1994. p. 94.
3
Outstanding Investor Digest, Inc. All rights reserved.

Content originally published in “Credit and Equity Considerations” in Convertible

Summary Arbitrage: Insights and Techniques for Successful Hedging, by Nick P. Calamos, CFA
(John Wiley & Sons, 2003).
We firmly believe that the value of any security is a function of
the underlying business’s cash flow and the quality of those
cash flows. Understanding the importance of economic profits
and the distortions from GAAP accounting improves our ability
to determine a business’s value. Through the appropriate
accounting adjustments and several qualitative assessments
of the company and its industry, we believe Calamos research
can uncover the economic profits of a company, determine the
quality of the cash flows, the return on capital, and finally, the
equity’s intrinsic value.

Calamos Advisors LLC

2020 Calamos Court
Naperville, IL 60563-2787
800.582.6959
The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication and are subject to change due www.calamos.com
to changes in the market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. caminfo@calamos.com
Information contained herein is for informational purposes only and should not be considered © 2009 Calamos Holdings LLC. All Rights Reserved. Calamos® and
investment advice. Calamos Investments® are registered trademarks of Calamos Holdings LLC.

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