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Game Plan: Scenario 1 - Highs Made First Break Into Fresh New

The document provides a daily market summary and analysis of the S&P 500 futures market. It discusses the previous day's price action, key support and resistance levels, and analyzes four potential scenarios for price movement. It then describes two intraday trade entries based on technical indicators showing a lack of buying demand and the emergence of selling pressure. Both trades were profitable but required close monitoring given the market's choppy price action and proximity to support and resistance levels. In conclusion, the analyst is uncertain if recent downside moves truly displayed selling or cleared prior supply, but decides to take profits and finish for the day given the unclear market conditions.

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64 views3 pages

Game Plan: Scenario 1 - Highs Made First Break Into Fresh New

The document provides a daily market summary and analysis of the S&P 500 futures market. It discusses the previous day's price action, key support and resistance levels, and analyzes four potential scenarios for price movement. It then describes two intraday trade entries based on technical indicators showing a lack of buying demand and the emergence of selling pressure. Both trades were profitable but required close monitoring given the market's choppy price action and proximity to support and resistance levels. In conclusion, the analyst is uncertain if recent downside moves truly displayed selling or cleared prior supply, but decides to take profits and finish for the day given the unclear market conditions.

Uploaded by

RICARDO
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Date: 20/07/2017 Market: ES mini Timeframe(s): Intraday – 5m,15m,60m,3500T News:

Yesterday: HIGH: 2472.00 LOW: 2457.75 CLOSE: 2471.50

Other levels: res:2495.00, sup:2461.50, sup:2451.50, sup:2440.00, sup:2337.00, sup:2428.00 sup:2403.75, sup:2417.00

The S&P’s continues to drive north as expected. Although, we have something of interest – a close
slap bang right at the supply line putting us in an overbought position (my reasoning for liquidating
yesterday’s position). The supply line has held from the 15th March 17 with 7 touches giving
resistance validity. Our advance to this point has been strong; the lack
of expanding volume indicates a lack of supply rather than weak
demand, a big difference. The key element for our session ahead we
have to ask ourselves, will the supply line hold? Or will we continue
north and break?

No further insights from smaller time frames, the market shows no


signs of easing up.

Game plan: Scenario 1 – highs made first; break into fresh new
ground with weak demand unable to hold price, wait for supply to
emerge and apply bearish setups. This would form an upthrust via the
daily at a point of resistance. Has the potential to be a strong move

Scenario 2 – highs made first; hold gains, break into new highs with
good demand, wait for a weak pullback to apply bullish setups, and
continue to ride the trend

Scenario 3 – lows made first; if we break support at 2466.00 decisively,


wait for a weak rally back to newly formed resistance and apply bearish
setups

Scenario 4 – lows made first; support holds at 2466.00 (which is


approx 50% retracement from yesterday’s move) look for weak supply,
demand to emerge and apply bullish setups
Entry 1 - is a combination by using both charts the 5m and tick, we start with a classic Wyckoff setup
‘’rally back to ice’’ (Ice being a support level). The 5m chart provides a story of weakness that is
clearer and the tick chart helps with the entry. Why the entry? During the overnight we break into
new all time highs (European session), find some resistance, as we react back to support volume
increases (bearish), as we rally from support volume declines (bearish) and the price action has
produced small narrow spreads (bearish) - compare the previous selling to A to the buying quality of
B. Bar C – US opens and we upthrust a local high with decent volume unable to test the overnight
resistance (bearish), we’re now looking for reasons to short – NOTE, thinking in multiple time frames
we could have a potential daily upthrust on our hands with the highs being rejected - would this
action make sense? Yes, we have a supply line that has held from mid March.

Via the tick chart we have a bearish change of behaviour at A with 81k contracts (the largest
downwave volume we have seen since the uptrend began, although the wave itself is not overt in
nature, it’s still the largest), we rally to B with 24k, showing a lack of demand (1/4 of the selling
pressure), we can’t short into support we must wait and be patient. We have some downside follow
through to C with 68k contracts (breaking support) as we rally back to test resistance we have no
demand 12k contracts an instant sell. D - exit ½, (+5.25 points) first support level, E – full exit
(+3.00 points), we have broken the down trend channel after bouncing off support (bullish
behaviour) and bar E on the 5m is telling us in advance a rally is on the cards, first resistance being
2472.00, it’s wise to lock in profits
Entry 2 – a tricky little trade adjust clip size accordingly. The buying quality from F is poor, volume
declines on the advance with narrowing spreads (compare this to both previous downwaves and
upwave, worlds apart) we get evidence of supply at G, although this could also be interpreted as a
shakeout, however for the following 40m we continue to hug resistance. Bar H has a slight pop in
volume and we upthrust local resistance – this whole area of resistance is no demand in a previous
area of supply (purple highlight are supply bars) Wyckoff stated that it will take equal or greater
volume to break a previous area of demand or supply.

Due to the nature of support being very close we must be nimble in this trade in addition via the tick
chart we have large demand behind us with 101k contracts (strength) followed by 24k indicating a
lack of demand for the moment at least. Bar J exit 1/3 at support (+1.75 points), bar K looks
excellent for our trade, decent spread expansion in volume as we break support, all healthy signs,
then the next couple of bars we have no downside follow through, a close above support would result
in further liquidation of a 1/3 (Bar L, +1.00 point), stop moved to break even and hit via bar M.

The market has been trading through yesterday’s high all day with no clear winner, the bears have
penetrated a little deeper to the downside and the bulls have been unable to test the European
session high, from this stance we could give it to the sellers, time will tell. The market is churning
with very small narrow bars, we had 2 opportunities for lower prices at bars G and K, sellers were
unable to capitalize, odds now favour further upside progress. Therefore we could interpret bars G &
K as eradicating left over supply from the left or are these genuine displays of selling? Hard to tell -
time to lock in profits and call it a day

Email: feibel@yahoo.com

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