Buget 2009 Evaluation On Service Industry
Buget 2009 Evaluation On Service Industry
Buget 2009 Evaluation On Service Industry
OF
MANAGERIAL ECONOMICS
TOPIC:- BUDGET 2009 AN EVALUATION OF
ITS EFFECT ON SERVICE INDUSTRY
SUBMITTED BY:- ARUN SAINI
MBA 1St Sem
ROLL- A25
SUBMITTED TO:- MR.. SACHIN LAL
KASHYAP
BUDGET 2009-2010
INTRODUCTION:-
Presenting the interim Budget for 2009-10 in Lok Sabha, acting
Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee] claimed in Parliament on
Monday that every effort has been made to fulfil promises made to the
common man.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE INTERIM BUDGET 2009-10:-
The Gross Domestic Product increased by 7.5 per cent, 9.5
percent, 9.7 percent and 9 per cent in the first four years from fiscal
year 2004-05 to 2007-08 recording a sustained growth of over 9 per
cent for three consecutive years for the first time. The growth drivers
for the period were agriculture, services, manufacturing along with
trade and construction.
Fiscal deficit down from 4.5 per cent in 2003-04 to 2.7 per cent
in 2007-08 and Revenue deficit from 3.6 per cent to 1.1 per cent in
2007-08.
The domestic investment rate as a proportion of GDP increased
from 27.6 per cent in 2003-04 to 39 per cent in 2007-08. Gross
Domestic savings rate shot up from 29.8 per cent to 37.7 per cent
during this period.
The Gross capital formation in agriculture as a proportion of
agriculture GDP increased from 11.1 per cent in 2003-04 to 14.2 per
cent in 2007-08.
The tax to GDP ratio increased from 9.2 per cent in 2003-04 to
12.5 per cent in 2007-08.
Annual growth rate of agriculture rose to 3.7 per cent during
2003-04 to 2007-08. The foodgrain production recorded an increase of
10 million tonnes each year during this period and touched an all time
high of 230 million tonnes in 2007-08.
While manufacturing sector recorded growth of 9.5 per cent per
annum in the period 2004-05 to 2007-08, communication and
construction sectors grew at the rate of 26 per cent and 13.5 per cent
per annum, respectively.
Exports grew at an annual average growth rate of 26.4 per cent
in US dollar terms in the period 2004-05 to 2007-08. Foreign trade
increased from 23.7 per cent of GDP in 2003-04 to 35.5 per cent in
2007-08.
OUTLOOK FOR THE YEAR 2009-2010:-
Despite the global financial crisis which began in 2007
impacting most emerging market economies, 7.1 per cent rate of GDP
growth in the current year makes India the second fastest growing
economy in the world.
Fallout of global slowdown on Indian economy were countered
with fiscal stimulus packages announced on December 7, 2010 and
January 2, 2009 providing tax relief to boost demand and increasing
expenditure on public projects.
Government accorded approval to 37 infrastructure projects
worth Rs 70,000 crore from August, 2010 to January, 2009 alone.
Under PPP mode, 54 Central Sector infrastructure projects with
a project cost of Rs 67,700 crore given in-principal or final approval
and 23 projects amounting to Rs 27,900 crore approved for viability
gap funding in 2010-09.
India Infrastructure Finance Company Ltd. (IIFCL) to refinance
up to 60 per cent of commercial bank loans for PPP projects involving
total investment of Rs 1,00,000 crore in infrastructure over the next
eighteen months.
In addition to RBI taking number of monetary easing and
liquidity enhancing measures such as reduction in cash reserve ratio,
statutory liquidity ratio and key policy rates, Government has taken
specific measures which include extension of export credit for labour
intensive exports, improving pre and post shipment credit availability,
additional allocations for refund of Terminal Excise Duty/CST and
export incentive schemes besides removal of export duty and export
ban on certain items. A Committee of Secretaries set up to address
procedural problems faced by exporters.
Record US$ 32.4 billion FDI received in 2007-08 and
notwithstanding financial uncertainty and slowdown, FDI inflows
during April-November, 2010 were US$ 23.3 billion recording a
growth of 45 per cent over the same period in 2007.
FRBM targets for the current year and for fiscal 2009-10 relaxed
to provide much needed demand boost. However, medium term
objective is to revert to fiscal consolidation at the earliest.
INITIATIVES AND ACHIEVEMENT:-
Agriculture
Plan allocation for agriculture increased by 300 per cent from
2003-04 to 2010-09. Rashtriya Krishi Vikas Yojna launched in 2007-
08 with an outlay of Rs 25,000 crore to increase growth rate of
agriculture and allied sector to 4 per cent per annum during Eleventh
Plan period.
Agriculture credit disbursement increased three times from Rs
87,000 crore in 2003-04 to about Rs 2,50,000 crore in 2007-08.
To strengthen short-term cooperative credit structure, revival
package in 25 states involving financial assistance of about Rs 13,500
crore is being implemented.
Interest subvention to be continued in 2009-10 to ensure that
farmers get short term crop loans upto Rs 3 lakh at 7 per cent per
annum.
The Agricultural Debt Waiver and Debt Relief Scheme, 2010
was implemented by June 30, 2010 as scheduled. Debt waiver/debt
relief amounting to Rs 65,300 crore covers 3.6 crore farmers.
Despite higher procurement cost and higher international prices
during the last 5 years, the central issue prices under Targeted Public
Distribution System (TPDS) maintained at July, 2000 level in case of
Below Poverty Line (BPL) and Antyodaya Anna Yojana (AAY)
categories and at July, 2002 levels for Above Poverty Line (APL)
category.
Minimum Support Price (MSP) for common variety of paddy
increased from Rs 550 per quintal in 2003-04 to Rs 900 per quintal for
the crop year 2010-09. In case of wheat, increase was from Rs 630 per
quintal in 2003-04 to Rs 1080 per quintal for the year 2009. Rural
Development
The corpus of Rural Infrastructure Development Fund (RIDF)
increased from Rs.5,500 crore in 2003-04 to Rs 14,000 crore for the
year 2010-09. A separate window for rural roads created with a corpus
of Rs 4,000 crore for each of the last three years.
As against 60 lakh houses to be constructed under Indira Awaas
Yojana by 2010-09, 60 lakh twelve thousand houses constructed
between 2005-06 to December, 2010.
Panchayat Empowerment and Accountability Scheme (PEAIS)
proposed to be expanded.
EDUCATION:-
Major initiatives including a new Centrally Sponsored Scheme
launched to universalize education at secondary stage in the year
2010-09.
Outlay on Higher Education increased 9 fold in the Eleventh
Five Year Plan. Ordinance promulgated for establishing 15 Central
Universities. In addition to 6 new Indian Institutes of Technology
(IITs) in Bihar, Andhra Pradesh, Rajasthan], Orissa, Punjab and
Gujrat which started functioning in 2010-09, two more IITs in
Madhya Pradesh and Himachal Pradesh are expected to commence
their academic session in 2009-10. 5 Indian Institute of Science
Education and Research (IISER) announced earlier have become
functional. 2 new schools of Planning and Architecture at Vijayawada
and Bhopal have started functioning. Teaching is expected to
commence from academic year 2009-10 in four out of six new Indian
Institute of Management proposed for the Eleventh Plan in Haryana,
Rajasthan, Jharkhand and Tamil Nadu.
Due to revision in Educational Loan Scheme by the
Government number of beneficiaries increased from 3.19 lakh to
14.09 lakh and amount of loan outstanding increased from Rs 4,500
crore as on March, 31, 2004 to Rs 24,260 crore as on September 30,
2010.
500 ITIs upgraded into centers of excellence. National Skill
Development Corporation created in July, 2010 with initial corpus of
Rs 1,000 crore.
SOCIAL SECTOR:-
Authorised capital of National Safai Karamchari Finance and
Development Corporation (NSKFDC) is being raised from Rs 200
crore to Rs 300 crore.
Scope of the pre-metric scholarship for children of those
engaged in unclean occupations expanded and rates of scholarship
doubled in 2010-09. Annual ad-hoc grant increased by about 50 per
cent as compared to earlier rates.
Rashtriya Mahila Kosh to be strengthened by enhancing its
authorized capital.
'Priyadarsini Project' a rural women's employment and
livelihood programme will be implemented as pilot in the district of
Madhubani and Sitamarhi in Bihar and Shravasti, Bahraich, Rai Bareli
and Sultanpur in Uttar Pradesh].
146 lakh persons benefited under Indira Gandhi National Old
Age Pension Scheme in the current financial year.
Two new schemes – 'Indira Gandhi National Widow Pension
Scheme' to provide pension of Rs 200 to widows between age groups
of 40-64 years and 'Indira Gandhi National Disability Pension
Scheme' to provide pension for severely disabled persons.
Widows in the age group of 18-40 years to be given priority in
admission to ITIs, Women ITIs and National/Regional ITIs for
women. Government to bear cost of their training and provide stipend
of Rs 500 per month.
22 States and Union Territories initiated process to implement
Rashtriya Swasthya Bima Yojana for BPL familities in the
unorganised sector and 60 lakh thirty two thousand persons covered
for death and disability under 'Aam Admni' Bima Yojana (AABY).
Public Sector Enterprises
Turnover of Central Public Sector Enterprises increased from
Rs 5,87,000 crore in 2003-04 to Rs 10,81,000 crore in 2007-08 and
profits grew from Rs 53,000 crore to Rs 91,000 crore. While number
of loss making enterprises came down from 73 in 2003-04 to 55 in
2007-08, number of profit making enterprises has gone up from 143 to
158 during the same period.
Government approved implementation of Guidelines on
Corporate Governance in Central Public Sector Enterprises (CPSEs)
in June, 2007.
Corpus of National Investment Fund created out of
disinvestment proceeds from Central PSUs stood at Rs 1,815 crore as
on December 31, 2010.
Financial Sector Reforms
NPAs of Public Sector Banks declined from 7.8 per cent on
March 31, 2004 to 2.3 per cent on March 31, 2010.
As a result of initiating process of amalgamation and
recapitalization of Regional Rural Banks (RRBs) with negative net
worth, 196 RRBs merged into 85 RRBs. The Government has
contributed Rs 652 crore for capitalization of RRBs upto December
31, 2010.
Number of reforms undertaken in the last four years to deepen
and widen the securities markets and strengthen the regulatory
mechanisms for these markets.
The Companies Bill, 2010, undertaking comprehensive
revision of Companies Act, 1956 to enable adoption of internationally
accepted best practices, has been introduced in the Parliament.
REVISED ESTIMATES:-
The total expenditure at Rs 7,50,884 crore in B.E. 2010-09 revised to
Rs 9,00,953 crore in R.E. 2010-09 showing an increase of Rs 1,50,069
crore.
Plan Expenditure gone up from Rs 2,43,386 crore in B.E. 2010-09
to Rs 2,82,957 crore in R.E. 2010-09.
Non-Plan expenditure increased by Rs 1,10,498 crore in R.E.
2010-09 over B.E. 2010-09.
Revised Estimate 2010-09 for Non-Tax Revenues increased from
Rs 95,785 crore in Budget Estimate 2010-09 to Rs 96,203 crore.
Revised Estimates of gross tax collection projected at Rs 6,27,949
crore as against B.E. 2010-09 of Rs 6,87,715 crore, primarily due to
pro-active fiscal measures initiated to counter the impact of global
slowdown on the Indian economy.
Revised Revenue deficit to be at Rs 2,41,273 crore (4.4 per cent of
GDP) as against budgeted figure of Rs 55,184 crore (1 per cent of
GDP).
Fiscal deficit to go up from Rs 1,33,287 crore (2.5 per cent of
GDP) in B.E. 2010-09 to Rs 3,26,515 crore (6 per cent of GDP).
BUDGET ESTIMATES:-
Total expenditure for fiscal 2009-10 estimated at Rs 9,53,231
crore. Plan expenditure estimated at Rs 2,85,149 crore and Non-Plan
expenditure at Rs 6,68,082 crore.
Budgetary support in Plan B.E. 2009-10 in comparison to B.E.
2010-09 increased for Department of Rural Development, Department
of Road Transport & Highways, Railways, Ministry of Power,
Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion and Department of
Information Technology to meet the requirements of rural and
infrastructure development along with higher allocation for Ministry
of Youth Affairs & Sports and Ministry of Culture to ensure adequate
resources for hosting of the Commonwealth Games Allocations to
flagship programme which directly impact 'Aam Aadmi' fully
protected.
Rs.30,100 crore allocated for National Rural Employment
Guarantee Scheme for the year 2009-10. In 2010-09 employment of
138.76 crore person days covering 3.51 crore household already
generated.
About 98 per cent habitations covered by primary schools under
Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan. Allocation for this programme increased by
571 per cent between 2003-04 and 2010-09. Allocation of Rs 13,100
crore proposed for 2009-10.
Rs 8,000 crore allocated for Mid-day Meals Scheme for the year
2009-10.
Allocation of Rs 6,705 crore proposed for Integrated Child
Development Scheme (ICDS) for the year 2009-10. New WHO child
growth standards adopted for monitoring growth of children under
ICDS.
386 projects amounting to Rs 39,000 crore sanctioned till
December 31, 2010 under Jawaharlal Nehru] National Urban Renewal
Mission (JNNURM). Allocation of Rs.11,842 crore proposed for the
year 2009-10.
Rs.7,400 crore allocated for Rajiv Gandhi Rural Drinking Water
Mission, Rs 1,200 crore for Rural Sanitation Programme, Rs 12,070
crore for National Rural Health Mission, Rs 40,900 crore allocated for
Bharat Nirman for the year 2009-10.
A provision of Rs 100 crore in the Annual Plan 2009-10 made for
Unique Identification Authority of India.
RIDF-XV proposed with a corpus of Rs 14,000 crore. Separate
window for rural roads to continue with a corpus of Rs 4,000 crore.
Interest subvention of 2 per cent on pre and post shipment credit
for certain employment oriented sectors i.e. Textiles (including
handlooms & handicrafts), Carpets, Leather, Gem & Jewellery,
Marine products and SMEs extended beyond March 31, 2009 till
September 30, 2009 involving an additional financial outgo of Rs.500
crore.
Government to recapitalize the public sector banks over the next
two years to enable them to maintain Capital to Risk Weighted Assets
Ratio (CRAR) of 12 per cent.
Allocation for Defence increased to Rs 1,41,703 crore which
includes Rs 54,824 for Capital Expenditure.
Major subsidies including food, fertilizer and petroleum estimated
at Rs 95,579 crore.
For the fiscal 2009-10, with Centre's net tax revenue estimated at
Rs 5,00,096 crore and Revenue expenditure at Rs 8,48,085 crore,
revenue deficit is estimated at 4 per cent of GDP and fiscal deficit at
5.5 per cent of GDP.
CHALLENGES:-
· To lead economy to high GDP growth rate of 9 per cent per annum at
the earliest
· To deepen and broaden the agenda for inclusive development to
improve delivery mechanisms of the government.
OVERVIEW OF THE ECONOMY:-
· Growth rate of Gross Domestic Product dipped from an average of
over 9 per cent in the previous three fiscal years to 6.7 per cent during
2010-09.
· Whole sale price index rose to nearly 13 per cent in August, 2010
and had an equally sharp fall to zero per cent in March, 2009.
· The structure of India’s economy changed over the last ten years
with contribution of the services sector to GDP at well over 50 per
cent and share of merchandise trade doubling to 38.9 per cent of GDP
in 2010-09.
Recognising economic recovery and growth as co-operative effort of
the Central and State Governments, meeting with Finance Ministers of
States held as part of preparation of the Budget. This is intended to
become an annual feature.
TOWARDS ECONOMIC REVIVAL:-
Short-term Measures
To counter the negative fallout of the global slowdown on the Indian
economy, Government responded by providing three focused fiscal
stimulus packages in the form of tax relief and increased expenditure
on public projects along with RBI taking a number of monetary easing
and liquidity enhancing measures.
Fiscal accommodation led to an increase in fiscal deficit from 2.7 per
cent in 2007-08 to 6.2 per cent of GDP in 2010-09.
Impact on sector :-
• No relief to the infrastructure financing sector in terms of tax rates.
• Infrastructure financing companies to benefit under the public private
partnerships proposed under various infrastructure schemes. The corpus for
the Rural Infrastructure Development Fund will facilitate such PPP projects
in the rural segments as well.
• Companies that finance rural electrification will benefit from the
additional subsidy offered to RGGVY.
Impact on companies :-
• Rural Electrification Corporation will benefit from the additional
subsidy offered to RGGVY.
• IDFC to benefit from private participation in infrastructure projects.
• HDFC to benefit from the subsidies offered to rural housing due to the
company’s focus on the same.
• Broking firms like Indiainfoline, India Bulls to be impacted by
reduction in trading volumes arising out of higher short term tax.
• Treatment of STT is expected to impact brokers especially those who
are involved in proprietary book trading and arbitrage. Overall volume in
the market can be impacted due to reduction in volmes and can thus
increase impact cost
CONCLUSION:-
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Finance minister Pranab Mukherjee will present the Union Budget for
2009-10 to Parliament in July first week. The budget text is not a
speech of financial records; it is also a agreement of the government
cost-effective policies. The government will give focused on flowing:
1. Agriculture
2. Rural Development
3. Internal Security
4. Primary Education
5. Industry Growth
6. Natural Resource
While making of budget so many surveys and analysis is doing like
pre budget survey, Industry key persons meetings, different
government departments head & important persons seat together,
financial organizations talk, in that way the budget is making.