Wayfair Investors Presentation Q3 2018-vF PDF
Wayfair Investors Presentation Q3 2018-vF PDF
Wayfair Investors Presentation Q3 2018-vF PDF
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SAFE HARBOR
This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of federal and state securities laws. All statements other than
statements of historical fact contained in this presentation—including statements regarding our future results of operations and financial
position, business strategy and plans, and objectives of management for future operations—are forward-looking statements. In some
cases, you can identify forward-looking statements by terms such as “may,” “will,” “should,” “expects,” “plans,” “anticipates,” “could,” “intends,”
“target,” “projects,” “contemplates,” “believes,” “estimates,” “predicts,” “potential,” or “continue,” or the negative of these terms or other similar
expressions.
Forward-looking statements are based on current expectations of future events. We cannot guarantee that any forward-looking statement
will be accurate, although we believe that we have been reasonable in our expectations and assumptions. Investors should realize that if
underlying assumptions prove inaccurate or that known or unknown risks or uncertainties materialize, actual results could vary materially
from the Company’s expectations and projections. Investors are therefore cautioned not to place undue reliance on any forward-looking
statements. These forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this presentation and, except as required by applicable law,
we undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements contained herein, whether as a result of any new
information, future events, or otherwise.
A list and description of risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause or contribute to differences in our results can be found under
Part I, Item 1A, Risk Factors, in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2017 and the Company’s subsequent
filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. We qualify all of our forward-looking statements by these cautionary statements.
Market data information, including growth rates and online penetration, used in this presentation are based on management’s knowledge
of the industry and their good-faith estimates. Management has relied, to the extent available, upon their review of industry surveys and
publications and other publicly available information prepared by a number of third-party sources. The market data information, including
indicative market growth and online penetration, provided in this presentation involves a number of assumptions and limitations, and you
are cautioned not to give undue weight to such information. Although we believe that these sources are reliable as of their respective dates,
we have not verified the accuracy or completeness of this information from independent sources. In addition, this information involves
important risks, uncertainties, and other factors, including those discussed above, which could cause results to differ materially.
In addition to U.S. GAAP financials, this presentation includes certain non-GAAP financial measures. These non-GAAP measures are in
addition to, not a substitute for or superior to, measures of financial performance prepared in accordance with U.S. GAAP. A reconciliation
of non-GAAP measures to GAAP measures is contained in the Appendix to this presentation.
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INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS
·· ~$600B total addressable market rapidly moving from brick and mortar to online
·· Utilizing in-house software development capability to build and leverage proprietary technology
as key enabler
·· Partnering with fragmented and largely unbranded supplier base of over 10,000 suppliers
·· Solving unique challenges of the category by building a business customized for home
·· Investing in logistics, international markets, and new teams to continue outsized share-taking
·· Attractive financial profile with robust growth at scale, proven unit economics,
and inventory-light business model
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OVERVIEW
01. Our Business
02. Strategic Priorities
03. KPIs & Financial Metrics
04. Appendix
4
01.
OUR BUSINESS
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OUR BUSINESS: INDUSTRY BACKDROP
BILLIONS IN REVENUE IS UP FOR GRABS WITH SECULAR SHIFT
FROM BRICK AND MORTAR TO ONLINE
With the Home Category Online Growing by …We Are Taking a Significant Share of
Approximately 15% in the U.S. in 2017... Dollars as They Shift Online
U.S. Home Online Market Size Forecast 2017 Online Growth Breakdown, $B and % of Total
$35B
$31.6B $4.1B
$30B
$ Billions U.S. Home Category
Online Market Size Estimate
$25B
Others
$20B 75%
$3.1B
$10B
Wayfair
$5B U.S. Growth 25%
$1.0B
$0B
2016 2017
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OUR BUSINESS: BUILT FOR THE HOME CATEGORY
HOME CATEGORY HAS SPECIFIC CHALLENGES WHEN SHOPPED ONLINE
Problem Solution
1 Confidence To Buy: 3 Inspiration and 4 Customer Service and Delivery: We have purpose-
In the absence of being able Product Discovery: Home is characterized by heavy, built our business to
to touch and feel a product, Home is browsed and bulky, and damage-prone items. solve these issues
customers typically require not searched, as it is Delivery speed can be slow and and transform how
greater comfort and advice difficult for consumers customers have limited visibility customers shop
on the item they are buying. to describe what on order timing. Third parties for the home, from
they are looking for typically play a large part in their home.
2 Visualizing Products: and brands are not the transportation and delivery
Understanding how a sofa or known. Additionally, process, resulting in a customer
dining room table will look in home shoppers desire experience that can be poor
a shopper’s home is central to uniqueness. relative to other categories.
the purchase decision.
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OUR BUSINESS: BUILT FOR THE HOME CATEGORY
WE HAVE BUILT AN EXPERIENCE THAT ENABLES CUSTOMERS
TO CONFIDENTLY SHOP FOR THEIR HOME ONLINE
1 Confidence To Buy:
Inspires Confidence in the Purchase
·· Customer reviews
·· Specialized sales team
·· Swatches and samples
·· In-depth product information & specifications
·· Customer Q&A
·· Plus more...
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OUR BUSINESS: BUILT FOR THE HOME CATEGORY
WE HELP SHOPPERS VISUALIZE THEIR PURCHASE
THROUGH THE USE OF TECHNOLOGY
2 Visualizing Products:
Customers “See” Before
They Buy
·· 3D View in Room
·· Room Planner
·· Room Ideas
·· Search with Photo
·· Customer-uploaded
product photos
·· Plus more...
Tap Results!
Snap
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OUR BUSINESS: BUILT FOR THE HOME CATEGORY
WE HELP INSPIRE SHOPPERS AND
EQUIP THEM TO PLAN THEIR PERFECT ROOM...
·· Product recommendations
·· Personalization
·· Visual filters
·· Idea Boards
·· Plus more...
My Dream Bedroom
5 items
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OUR BUSINESS: BUILT FOR THE HOME CATEGORY
…INCLUDING 70+ PROPRIETARY HOUSE BRANDS ACROSS STYLES AND
PRICE POINTS TO HELP CUSTOMERS FIND PRODUCTS THEY LIKE
Nautical, Contemporary,
low price point mid price point
American Industrial,
Traditional, high price point
mid price point
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OUR BUSINESS: BUILT FOR THE HOME CATEGORY
HOUSE BRANDS ARE RESONATING WITH SHOPPERS
60%
House Brands as a % of Wayfair.com Revenue
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2015 2016 2017
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OUR BUSINESS: BUILT FOR THE HOME CATEGORY
CUSTOMER SERVICE BUILT TO BE A COMPETITIVE DIFFERENTIATOR
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OUR BUSINESS: BRANDS AND CUSTOMERS
WAYFAIR IS OUR CENTRAL BRAND AND THE DRIVER OF OUR BUSINESS
2.
Customers attribute
Wayfair to ‘the rewarding
feeling of turning my house
in to a home’ twice as often
as the next highest brand².
High End
($175K+
household income)
Mass Market
($60K–$175K household income)
Low End
($60K household income)
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OUR BUSINESS: BRANDS AND CUSTOMERS
OUR FOUR DISTINCT HOME SITES EACH HAVE A UNIQUE IDENTITY
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OUR BUSINESS: BRANDS AND CUSTOMERS
INCREASING ENGAGEMENT FROM REPEAT CUSTOMERS
Repeating Customers
Our knowledge of returning Loyalty Is Growing
customers is higher than that ·· Our base of loyal
for new visitors, which means customers is growing.
that we can target our
·· In December 2017, 31%
marketing more efficiently
of Wayfair.com orders
and utilize free channels
came from customers
such as email and app
who already purchased
alerts. This drives lower
at least two other times
overall ad spend for repeat. Brand-new to Wayfair in the prior 12 months.
·· In December 2013, this
Shopper visits our site / app, starts figure was 13%.
to engage, signs up for email
communication / app alerts
As the % of orders
coming from repeat
customers grows, our Makes a first
total advertising cost purchase
as a % of total revenue
averages down
Customer returns
to make repeat
purchases
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OUR BUSINESS: BRANDS AND CUSTOMERS
MARKETING TO CUSTOMERS VIA PAID AND FREE CHANNELS
Brand Integrations
Partnering with
Discovery/Scripps and
other networks to reach
our target customers
through TV ads
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STRATEGIC PRIORITES
TAKING A LONG-TERM APPROACH TO GROWTH
2 International
Expanding our business in Canada, the UK, and
Germany by strengthening our customer offering and
raising brand awareness.
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STRATEGIC PRIORITIES
HOME CATEGORY CHARACTERIZED
BY HEAVY, BULKY, AND DAMAGE-PRONE ITEMS
United Kingdom
Germany
Canada
United States
CastleGate
Warehouses
1 Logistics: CastleGate
CastleGate warehouses forward-position supplier Penetration of sales via CastleGate We are building end-to-end,
inventory to create fast delivery for small parcel has considerable opportunity to fully integrated supply chain
(1–2 days) and large parcel (1 week+). grow in small and large parcel. services including recent launches
Approximately 19% of U.S. small of freight, drayage, and ocean
We have built our strategic footprint of warehouses parcel direct net revenue was shipped services for our suppliers. We
in the U.S., and post-2018 will be adding space to from the CastleGate network in Q4 can take a much more strategic
support ongoing growth in volume. 2017, up from 10% in Q4 2016. approach than a third-party
Suppliers are working increasingly closely with us, logistics company, reducing
CastleGate expansion in Canada costs for suppliers, customers,
with approximately 65% of the inbound volume and Europe strengthens our offering
into U.S. CastleGate facilities having and Wayfair, and improving our
in those regions and accelerates our visibility of supply.
been container-direct at the end of 2017. flywheel.
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STRATEGIC PRIORITIES
TAKING CONTROL OF LARGE PARCEL TRANSPORTATION AND
DELIVERY WITH THE WAYFAIR DELIVERY NETWORK
Logistics: Wayfair
1 WDN Locations
Delivery Network (WDN)
In September 2018,
approximately 90% of our U.S.
large parcel orders flowed
through the Wayfair-controlled
middle mile network, and our
last mile delivery facilities
covered 66% of U.S. large parcel
deliveries and just under 40%
of Canadian large parcel home
deliveries.
Customer satisfaction
improvements resulting from
control of the last mile are
significant, and we expect to
drive higher customer lifetime
value. We will generate efficiency
gains as recently opened last
mile delivery facilities operate
more effectively over time as
volume grows.
2 International
International competitive landscape is similar to the U.S., with a fragmented base of brick-and-mortar retailers
that is typically regionalized with no dominant online player. Our U.S. playbook positions us well to be the winner.
United Kingdom
Germany
Canada Europe
~$300B
$4,721
$3,380
$2,250
$1,319
$916
$517 $601
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Q3 ’18
LTM
240+ Niche Websites; Wayfair Brand Wayfair U.S.
Platform Development Launched Brand Building
13.86
12.79
11.80
10.99
10.25
9.55
8.85
8.25
7.36
6.67
6.07
5.36
4.59 $440 $443
$432
4.04 $422
$408
3.60 $404 $406 $395 $402
$392 $394
3.22
2.86 $381
2.64 $371
2.41
$357
$342 $342 $346
$323 $332
Q1 '14 Q2 '14 Q3 '14 Q4 '14 Q1 '15 Q2 '15 Q3 '15 Q4 '15 Q1 '16 Q2 '16 Q3 '16 Q4 '16 Q1 '17 Q2 '17 Q3 '17 Q4 '17 Q1 '18 Q2 '18 Q3 '18
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KPIs & FINANCIAL METRICS
NEW AND REPEAT ORDERS BOTH GROWING WITH REPEAT TAKING SHARE
7 70%
6
65%
5
60%
4
Orders (Millions)
55%
3
50%
2
45%
1
0 40%
Q1 '14 Q2 '14 Q3 '14 Q4 '14 Q1 '15 Q2 '15 Q3 '15 Q4 '15 Q1 '16 Q2 '16 Q3 '16 Q4 '16 Q1 '17 Q2 '17 Q3 '17 Q4 '17 Q1 '18 Q2 '18 Q3 '18
Orders from New Customers Orders from Repeat Customers % of Orders from Repeat Customers
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KPIs & FINANCIAL METRICS
CUSTOMERS ARE ORDERING MORE FREQUENTLY
1.85
1.80
1.75
1.70
1.65
1.60
1.55
1.50
Q1 '14 Q2 '14 Q3 '14 Q4 '14 Q1 '15 Q2 '15 Q3 '15 Q4 '15 Q1 '16 Q2 '16 Q3 '16 Q4 '16 Q1 '17 Q2 '17 Q3 '17 Q4 '17 Q1 '18 Q2 '18 Q3 '18
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KPIs & FINANCIAL METRICS
U.S. HOVERING +/- BREAKEVEN DESPITE SIGNIFICANT INVESTMENT;
INTERNATIONAL EARLIER IN ITS LIFECYCLE
U.S. Direct Net Revenue $2,993.4 $837.6 $976.7 $1,033.7 $1,227.5 $4,075.4 $1,186.2 $1,397.0 $1,460.1
Direct Growth 53.9% 24.5% 39.0% 36.1% 43.0% 36.1% 41.6% 43.0% 41.2%
U.S. Total Net Revenue 3,110.5 858.0 997.1 1,050.6 1,247.3 4,153.1 1,201.6 1,411.3 1,473.3
Total Growth 45.7% 21.5% 36.1% 33.4% 41.1% 33.5% 40.0% 41.5% 40.2%
U.S. Adjusted EBITDA 0.2 3.7 20.4 4.5 7.2 35.9 (7.9) 7.2 (26.0)
Margin 0.0% 0.4% 2.0% 0.4% 0.6% 0.9% -0.7% 0.5% -1.8%
International Direct Net Revenue 265.5 102.8 125.8 147.6 191.7 567.8 202.7 243.9 232.4
Direct Growth 180.0% 162.6% 136.2% 102.9% 90.9% 113.9% 97.2% 93.9% 57.5%
International Total Net Revenue 269.9 102.8 125.8 147.6 191.7 567.8 202.7 243.9 232.4
Total Growth 136.0% 148.1% 131.8% 100.1% 90.7% 110.4% 97.2% 93.9% 57.5%
International Adjusted EBITDA (88.9) (24.6) (22.7) (27.2) (28.4) (102.9) (42.0) (42.0) (50.4)
Margin -32.9% -24.0% -18.0% -18.4% -14.8% -18.1% -20.7% -17.2% -21.7%
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KPIs & FINANCIAL METRICS
LONG-TERM TARGET MODEL
Long-Term
2015 2016 2017 Q3 2018 Target
Advertising 12.4% 12.1% 11.6% 11.9% 6–8% Ad cost % decreases as size of repeat
customer base grows as a % of total
$4,721
$3,380 38.8
$2,250
$1,319
$916
2.1
$20 $20 $19 $28 $36
$15
1
Average of last four quarters
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04.
APPENDIX
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APPENDIX
ILLUSTRATIVE CUSTOMER ACQUISITION COST
AOV $239.2
Assumed Revenue from Repeat Customers $2,850
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APPENDIX
WE ARE ADDING VARIABLE HEADCOUNT TO KEEP UP WITH GROWTH &
INVESTING IN OPEX HEADCOUNT TO STAFF OUR STRATEGIC INVESTMENTS
10,000 9,713
8,753
9,000
8,000 7,751
6,122
6,890
7,000 5,271
6,049 4,730
6,000 5,610 5,637 5,708 4,114
5,398
3,272
3,174
4,000 3,150 3,110
3,002
2,556
3,000 4,786
4,442
2,000 4,023
3,636
3,208
2,777
2,460 2,527 2,534
1,000 2,048 2,396
-
Q1 '16 Q2 '16 Q3 '16 Q4 '16 Q1 '17 Q2 '17 Q3 '17 Q4 '17 Q1 '18 Q2 '18 Q3 '18
Customer Service, Variable Logistics and Sales1 Marketing, Engineering, Technology, etc.
1
These figures include interns and co-ops 37
APPENDIX
CASTLEGATE WAREHOUSES ENABLE NEXT-DAY
AND 2-DAY DELIVERY FOR SMALL PARCEL¹
WDN Example
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APPENDIX
RECONCILIATION OF ADJUSTED EBITDA ($ IN MILLIONS)
Includes one-time charges related to terminating use of our warehouse in Ogden, Utah, in July 2017
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1
2
Includes related taxes
APPENDIX
RECONCILIATION OF FREE CASH FLOW ($ IN MILLIONS)
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities $4.1 $135.1 $62.8 $33.6 $24.8 $7.8
Purchase of Property and Equipment ($31.9) ($44.6) ($96.7) ($100.4) ($30.1) ($49.4)
Site and Software Development Costs ($14.1) ($17.5) ($31.4) ($46.4) ($12.2) ($17.2)
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