Journal of History Culture and Art Research (ISSN: 2147-0626)

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Tarih Kültür ve Sanat Araştırmaları Dergisi Vol. 6, No. 1, February 2017
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DOI: 10.7596/taksad.v6i1.775
Citation: Motaharnia, M., & Salehi, E. (2017). The New World Order in the Twenty-First Century. Journal of
History Culture and Art Research, 6(1), 852-862. doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.7596/taksad.v6i1.775

The New World Order in the Twenty-First Century

Mehdi Motaharnia 1, Ensiyeh Salehi 2

Abstract

Thinking about the future is not a new issue. This concept is a universal phenomenon that can
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be probed its root in pre-human history. In all known human societies, people have ideas
about time and future. The existence of such notions in all human societies is an undeniable
reality. The risks of failure due to lack of preparation for the future, after the frenzied
competition in global stock markets also showed face. In such an atmosphere, more than ever
required that the futurist thinkers put the effort necessary to develop scenarios to get out of
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this crippling over the question of whether the future will be? The present paper is discussed
existing scenarios on the future of the international system to express this scenario that the
future of the international system will be a flexible bipolar system that capitalism rallying
against each other where foundation of knowledge in both the West with East, China and
America's flagship. This order within itself will be facing with the chaos caused by the fatness
of nation's wisdom against state power. This feature would cause a problematic international
order in the near future other than any times.

Keyword: Democracy, Authoritarian capitalism, Government power, Word order.

1
Chairman of Social and Revolutionary Sciences Institute, Islamic Azad University, and faculty member of
Tehran and Qom.
2
Department of Political Science, Islamic Azad University, South Branch, Tehran, Iran. E Mail:
Ensiyehsalehi65@gmail.com

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Introduction

New Age theory-oriented implementation era of knowledge based on nations' wisdom against
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state power in the realm of political and economic foundations of the capitalist system under
the visor pointed out China's authoritarian capitalism and America's standard flagship in
international relations. In this view, it has been considered to a single order in the future
multipolar world order in the framework of "hegemony tools". Let us not forget, the future of
identity "knowledge-centered", is not realistic experience of identity, according to Alan
Coddington knowledge of the future is "Surrogate Knowledge" and to put this knowledge to
the "Companion Knowledge" (Firhy, 2009).

International Relations field comes from the reflections of political society and tend to
influence policies or improve the conducting way of policy. The distinction between "theoric
research", and "realistic policy" was an issue related to the neutrality of the practical daily, but
did not mean that it is not real or meaningful daily preoccupations. Books such as Two Worlds
of International Relations and Theory and Practice in Foreign Policy-making express this
case that this series so far has been able to pursue its full of ups and downs. These attitudes
underlying tensions in relations between scholars and policy transition point and is not to lose
sight of the tension between those who seek the truth and the power.

Christopher Hill is concerned that these two worlds will be "closer together" and have been
claiming that they are away from each other to develop intellectual thoughts based on that
tradition while are away from international events that makes it ridiculous ivory tower and
can provide strange theories (Hill and Beshoff, 1994: 23).

Christopher Hill says that the indubitable necessary to achieve the impact that is expected of a
scientific field and do not forget that the international relations comes from influence on
policies or improve the way for conducting the policy. While most of echoes reveal in the
field of scientific interest and called as futured studies. This paper argues that the method
delves into the scenario, or what is now called scenario investigated the new world order in
the twenty-first century.

Research Hypotheses

H1: Possible future is implementation of the new policy orientation in the field of knowledge,
the showdown over government's nations.

H2: Democratic investment in the realm of international relations, including possible future
competition between two investment poles.

H3: This era will be transition to the knowledge between state capitalism and private
capitalism complex foundation in the range of the world.
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H4: One multi-polar world order with 5 + 1 pattern in the American future as plausible
scenario.

Methodology

Processing scenario is defined method in the scope of future studies. Scenarios draw the
different probable future for leaders, but essentially don’t anticipate the future. The target of
scenarios put at higher level than current state. Because scenario don’t talk about target
themselves, scenarios, as one technique and original art used by governmental planners,
managers companies and military analysts for future studies. From theoretical aspects,
scenarios use a combination of different paths (the actor's events and strategies) that are likely
lead to the possible future. In practice, scenarios often describe simply certain events or
variables (Mietzner and Reger, 2008).

This study investigates briefly scenarios of future global overview and discusses main
scenario and answers to questions like these: What do scenarios exist in new world order at
the twenty-first century? What are the twenty-first century possible global order? What are
twenty-one century optimal global order?

Key Concepts

New world order

The scope of the semantic order is consistent pattern of social arrangements that meet each of
structure and functional dimensions. The structural dimension refers to how makeup affairs
and the nature are in the relationship that exists between components. When the ingredients
are in their proper place, and make up the desired goal, it can be said that whole has the right
order. At this time of order to their defined function gives actuality.

New world order, a term that entered East Block of mid-1989, following the transformation of
the political culture of the world. The use of the term evokes the president of America,
George Bush first. After Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in August 1990, Bush introduced for the
first time this term to Congress in September 1990. The collapse of the Berlin Wall in
December 1989 put an end to the traditional system of international relations and war in the
Persian Gulf draw a line between the new system and the old system.

Although the collapse of the Berlin Wall was the beginning of an end, but the beginning of
Bush's Iraq to Kuwait is coming after the stroke of apparent or obvious than in the past on the
future literary fellowship to draw images of the New World Order. Do not forget that former
world leaders also sought to establish “new world order” respectively from Monroe to Lenin
and from Hitler to Bush.

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Bush feared that America's response to rape Iraq should not be unilateral reaction. It should
re-emergence of collective security in the post-Cold War era (Bull, 1995). In September 1990,
Bush outlined five simple principles. These five principles provide a framework for the
international system to America. Regarding the fifth objective, he said:

We stand today at a unique and extraordinary moment. The crisis in the Persian
Gulf, as grave as it is, also offers a rare opportunity to move toward an historic
period of cooperation. Out of these troubled times, our fifth objective -- a new
world order -- can emerge: a new era -- freer from the threat of terror, stronger
in the pursuit of justice, and more secure in the quest for peace. An era in
which the nations of the world, East and West, North and South, can prosper
and live in harmony. A hundred generations have searched for this elusive path
to peace, while a thousand wars raged across the span of human endeavor.
Today that new world is struggling to be born, a world quite different from the
one we've known. A world where the rule of law supplants the rule of the
jungle. A world in which nations recognize the shared responsibility for
freedom and justice. A world where the strong respects the rights of the weak
(Bush, 1990).

Alain Dubois, French thinker and writer, assessed one of the consequences of the
establishment of the global system: The political factor steering legal factor in bringing and
finally, the legal operating in special ethics that aims to serve the legitimate interests of the
West.

Hedley Bull and his allies in the international community believe that the order pattern of
social relations that continually meet the following functional objectives: 1) Maintaining the
international system, 2) Sovereignty or independence of the legal system, and 3) Security.

Alternative futures

Unipolar world of America

For the U.S., the best condition in the future is that it remains as a dominant power at military,
economic, political and cultural areas in place. In this scenario, big powers (China, Russia,
Europe Union and India) have no longer ability and desire to challenge international order by
America leadership. In this world, security threats from rebellious regional countries such as
Iran and Indonesia as well as sporadic ethnic conflicts and crises and humanitarian disasters in
the poorest parts of the developing world emerge.

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Democratic peace

Democratic peace is one of the alternative futures, perspective and ideal image about future in
which liberal democracy, freedom and open markets develop to the extent that all the major
powers in the world (Europe, India, China, Japan, Russia and Brazil) and most middle powers
have been institutionalized. As a result, in 2025 only sporadic regions, including the poorest
parts of the developing countries are excluded from the rule of liberal democracy. Flaring
great battles across countries in the international system is not realistic and intriguing.
Democracy expanding in 2025 perspective cause omitting “rebellious regional countries”
phenomenon in future so that even spreading Weapons of mass destruction is not important
security category for America leaders in democratic world.

Appearance of a major competitor

In special condition, some major areas of instability in the world of democratic peace in 2025
will be as the northern part of Latin America, sub-Saharan Africa, and parts of South Asia.

Appearance of a major competitor is the first mode in division of the world as middle-good in
this study. In this case, we are witnessing the emergence of competitor more or less adversary
with America. A competitor with significant capabilities and strategic nuclear capability,
having the additional troops and space military equipment. In particular, in the world of the
emergence of a major competitor we can refer to China-Russia alliance in the years 2018-
2015 with the aim of undermining America's global position and its key allies.

Multipolarity of competition

Multipolarity of world competition is the second middle-good world in the prediction of the
report. In the future world, we witness two big powers that having more or less capability to
battle USA. Each of three powers (two emerging powers and USA) attempt make a coalition
of friends and allies to overcome two other powers. In this world, instead of witness flaring
great wars in key part of world, we will witness constant and comprehensive among various
systems of defensive ally including combination of enticing and threat to bring the small and
influential powers with aim of persuading them to change present political ally or maintain
the status quo. In the world of multipolar completion world, America, Russia and China, each
one as a powerful polar take responsibility of guiding different alliances.

Transnational network

Transnational network is a story of middle-bad world and show more unusual view to future
space in 2025 so nation-government in its framework assigns large volume of their power to
transnational actors and most of them experience the method that is faster than national and
governmental bureaucracy using internet for coordinating their actions in level of the world.
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There is an assumption that significant part of nation-government power is available for
transnational actors around the world including multinational companies, transnational
criminal organizations, terrorist networks and groups having special benefits place in domain
of “peace and social justice” and even ethnical homeless. Most of the actors have benevolent
aims in this hypothetical world and are not threat for security benefits of America. However,
some of the follow groups that have recently taken power convert to enemy of America and
other western governments so it is necessary to design military strategies to overcome on
them.

Chaos / anarchy

The last hypothetical world in present study is the worst one; the future which is called the
world of chaos/anarchy. In this future like before, government loses considerable part of its
power but we are now witnessing distribution of force to the level of subnational actors. The
underlying assumption of the chaos / anarchy is that factors such as population explosion,
environmental devastation and ethnic conflict cause the collapse of the nation-state in vast
areas of the world and the developing world. The vacuum in power is filled by Warlords that
did not benefit from foundations and understructure of tax and restored to terrorism and
illegal imported, drugs and weapons of mass destruction for supporting governing systems.
This unstable and turbulent world often witness massive migration, pandemics, as well as
sectarian violence and accessing to more efficient weapons. Terrorist attacks against major
cities in the west by subnational groups are converted to common approach. It is clear that in
this world, resistance against threats of national security in America is more difficult
considering their diversity, wideness of domain and shadow-like quality and it is more
challenging in comparison with threats in the 5 alternative futures.

In 2025, there are three unstable and main regions in this special formulation. The first region
is Russia/Central Asia. Collapse of Russia into four new and inefficient governments in 2017
cause severe instability so that we are witnessing constant flow of delivering usual
contraband, microbial and chemical weapons to Central Asia where many of powerful
Warlords buy some part of these weapons and then sell its excess to international terrorists,
ethnical groups and Warlords in other part of the world. Although we are witnessing limited
enriched uranium trafficking to Central Asia, but future government of Russia will be
successful in securing its nuclear weapons and material stocks (with great help from United
States of America). Production and trafficking of drug will be growing trade for Warlords of
Central Asia (Mietzner and Reger, 2008).

Whatever we refer in this report is study of good, middle and bad futures from the US
perspective. But final part tends to discuss on future of world from authors’ perspective. In

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this vision three layers of future based on three separate levels are discussed which include:
the domestic policy, regional order, and international system.

Future of the world

Each of the six futures has a short list of indicators and signs that in the first decade of the
twenty-first century can be used to guide the future direction. Guiding indicators are the only
potential signs for emerging hypothetical world which will be appeared in 2025 and follow
the way to confront national benefits and American military. For the Unipolar future of
America, markers and signs that seems more appropriate would become:

Economy

• America's GDP has first rank in the world;

• America has clear dominance in the next generation of new technologies (biotechnology,
robotics).

Military

• Trend of logical and small defense budget of America;

• No other country has domination and hegemony at the recent revolution domain in military
affairs.

• Investments in other countries to bolster defenses are low.

International

• China's economic growth slowed and Russia still grappling reforms.

• America maintains its leading role in restored and developed NATO.

The report said that regional powers have not ability to establish efficient weapon factories. If
all or most of guiding indicators were present in 2010-2015, it seems that direction movement
is followed toward unipolar future of America. In contrast, if it was not more than two
indicators (or three) in that time, formation of unipolar future world of America is unlikely
according to analyses. Weight and values of indicators are the same; so they have similar
importance. The principle of equal importance is present in all six alternative futures. It
should also be noted that all indicators have not clear encryption and no doubt, measurement
some of them (such as the internal situation in Russia and China) will be the subject of
intelligence analysts and experts. However, the management of meaningful lists of future
indicators/markers that we can quantify them is impossible and therefore we should accept
some shortcomings in the evaluation of qualitative indicators accepted.

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However, in the last quarter of the 20th century and the early decades of the 21st century,
political protests encompassed around the world. From the protests of "Red" (movement for
justice janitors in Los Angeles who wore his red costume Union) in the pursuit of social-
economic equality to social movements in Tunisia, and from blue-collar farmers movement in
China against the taxpayer, to the great protest movement of the Egyptian people in February
2011 all show the syndrome that finally lead to operational analysis among rulers and servants
because of “dissatisfaction”.

World of today is full of speed. Scientific paradigms governing on the world are changed
every 18-months. The race of changes is great so that all achievements in 50 years ago equal
to whatever obtained in history of human life. In this deep and long-range scientific human
life today, politics and other aspects of human life cannot be stable does not keep pace with
the dynamics. Today the basic elements of human life means “time and space” have
intertwined and show themselves in a process known as globalization. Awareness has spread
quickly in light of the development of communication technologies and leads to increase
comparison band in human thought perspective. In this context, the time of “superman of
power” is ending compulsorily.

The world is passing knowledge-based era. Human is witnessing “death of distance” helping
digital media and internet communication. Nanotechnology border are passed and genetic
revolution reach to human simulation and think about “death of death”. Is it possible to use
old methods for managing communities in different layers of political life? We do not forget
the time of power monologue in different national geography of nation-state with various
trends has been finished as superpower era in international system and powerful empire like
America cannot be claimant of superman in political life. Today, monologue is not acceptable
in any layer of different level of human life. If America or any other countries could not
become ruler on the world based on permissible supremacy principle in light of increasing
knowledge of nations, governments must be prepared to resistance caused by the awareness at
the national level.

Future world from the authors’ perspective is the world of confronting of democratic
capitalism with leadership of the US and authoritarian capitalism in support of China. But in
the level of relations between nations and states, future world is the world of confronting
awareness of nations by social forces leadership against power of government with command
of political powers. Among this, the most important point for the government is “expanding
satisfaction” among different layers, various and increasing intentions of nations. In this
place, democracy will be no longer a configuration but it will be a content which means that
fundamental principle of life, dynamicity and reliability of democracy is satisfaction of

859
different layers of population related to efficiency of political system in response to real needs
of people. In this wide band of satisfaction principle, policy should be responsive to people.
Although this responsiveness was an accepted mental principle a long time ago, but now it
has operational definition by considering communication and “death of death” era. Today, it
seems that period of individual leadership in civil movements has been ended. Today it is the
media that govern on new civil movements.

In this perspective, world community deals with modern approach of political protests.
Although the approaches have defined characteristics that separate them from traditional
protest, but finally show that “wisdom of nations is dominant on power of governments”. This
domination is expanded not only in developed countries but also in developing areas. People
in all countries tend to obtain defined sources according to their knowledge. “Governance” on
people tends to “management” of communities affairs. People without managers and
managers without people will be not able to manage community affairs (Motahatniya, 2016).

At the second level by emerging China, India and others, we will witness emergence of
multidimensional and bipolar world system. Also, relative power of non-state actors,
businesses, tribes, religious organizations or criminal networks will increase. Unprecedented
change of economic power and wealth from West to East will continue. United States remains
as the most powerful country in the world, but it will have less dominance (Harrison, 2010:
35). Constant economical growth along 1.2 billion added populations to world in 2025 will
press energy, food and water sources. The number of countries that have young population
will decrease, but population of some young countries will continue its speed growth. There is
a possible change of resources and separation of oil and gas by advanced stocking of energy,
bio fuel and coal to 2025. But finally it is America that deals with reduction of power and
become the compound power that will keep its central position in attempt to protecting
democratic capitalism. This capitalism approach that emerged from Bourgeoisie western
liberal revolutions because of its historical context will have defined characteristics.
Compared the growth of China's economy, upgrading level of military and political power in
regional and international layers, political and cultural authoritarian structure emerge from
historical life of old civilization so China will be the leader of world authoritarian capitalism
in the future of time.

It should not be neglected that America attempts for approaching China borders by excusing
September 11 attacks and attack to Iraq and Afghanistan. Also we do not forget the attempt to
creating greater convergence between America and India. Based on studies for measuring
national power, the US has 20% of total global power while China has 14%, European Union

860
14%, India 9% and Russia 2% (Treverton and Jones, 2005: 3). Now if a pole consisting China
and India with cooperation of Russia is formed, it provides unfavorable scenario for America.

Conclusion

End of cold war encompasses ups and downs. Among them, economic liberalization and
democracy expansion around the world and attention to Principles of Human Rights are
present in most parts of world. However, we should not neglect vast waves of negative
shocks. Negative implications such as intensification of conflicts in Africa and collapse of
governments create main challenges for global order. Negative implications culminate with
September 11 terrorist attacks and war with Iraq and accompany vast changes in foreign
policy around the world.

Today, globalization is become evident reality for powerful and weak countries. International
flow of goods, knowledge and capital provide great opportunities for wealth production and
processing progress of the world. But in this field like other domain globalizations is carrier
of known threats. This phenomenon causes Transnational Organized Crime. In light of this
phenomenon, accessing weapons of mass destruction (WMD), international terrorism, lack of
resources and increase of the risk of infectious diseases across national boundaries threat
international peace and development. Interdependence means advanced countries subject the
threats of negative implications of crisis in the poorer parts of the world simpler than past.
However, globalization is a completely economical and political phenomenon.

In developing world, America obtains unequal political and military power. It seems that its
power is vulnerable. September 11 terrorist attacks to this country cause America enter new
stage to exercise of power for defining interests and security of the country in the future. The
way of America action in the future and its consequents on relations between America and
European Union has effect on foreign policy of countries such as England, Germany and
France definitely.

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