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The document discusses various chart patterns including flag patterns, 123 tops and bottoms, and rectangles. It notes that flag patterns are a continuation pattern and the author's favorite, with each flag potentially offering an opportunity to compound gains if trading that instrument. It describes the formation of bull and bear flag patterns and how they differ from pennant patterns, which have a lower success rate.

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Baba Kela
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100% found this document useful (1 vote)
375 views

Document

The document discusses various chart patterns including flag patterns, 123 tops and bottoms, and rectangles. It notes that flag patterns are a continuation pattern and the author's favorite, with each flag potentially offering an opportunity to compound gains if trading that instrument. It describes the formation of bull and bear flag patterns and how they differ from pennant patterns, which have a lower success rate.

Uploaded by

Baba Kela
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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7A. Bull Flag Pattern (67.

13% Success)
7B. Bear Flag Pattern (67.72% Success)

The flag is a continuation pattern that can occur after a strong trending


move.  It consists of a strong bullish trending move followed by a rapid series
of lower highs and lower lows for a bull flag, or a strong bearish trending
move followed by a rapid series of higher lows and higher highs for a bear
flag.  These patterns are small hesitations in strong trends, so they are
usually only composed of a small number of price bars (about 20).  Longer
and wider patterns are defined as channels (see below).

The flag pattern appears as a small rectangle that is usually tilted against
the prevailing trend in price.  The best flag patterns have two features: 1) a
very strong run in price (near vertical) prior to the setting up of the flag and
2) a tight flag that occurs right on the upper (or lower) edge of that run.  The
higher and tighter (narrower) the pattern, the higher percentage that the
pattern will break favourably in the prevailing trend direction.

This pattern is considered successful when it breaks the upper trendline in a


bull flag (or the lower trendline in a bear flag) and then proceeds to cover the
same distance as the prior trending move starting from the outer edge of the
pattern.  Note that most pattern projections are measured from the breakout
point, but flags, pennants, and channel patterns are all measured from the
outer edge of the pattern instead as shown by the red arrows in the chart
examples.
6A. Ascending Triangle Pattern (72.77%)
6B. Descending Triangle Pattern (72.93%)

The triangle pattern usually occurs in trends and acts as a continuation


pattern.  It's defined by a bullish trending move followed by two or more
equal highs and a series of higher lows for an ascending triangle pattern, and
a bearish trending move followed by two or more equal lows with a series of
lower highs for a descending triangle pattern.
The pattern is complete when price breaks above the horizontal resistance
area in an ascending triangle, or below the horizontal support area in a
descending triangle.  The pattern is considered successful if price extends
beyond the breakout point for at least the same distance as the pattern
width (see red arrows).

5A. Ascending Channel Pattern (73.03%)


5B. Descending Channel Pattern (72.88%)
The channel price pattern is a fairly common sight in trending moves that
have good volume and acts as a delayed continuation pattern.  Note that
the channel pattern is similar to the flag in that they both have periods of
consolidation between parallel trendlines, but the channel pattern is
generally wider and consists of many more bars which increases its strength
and success rate.

The ascending channel pattern is defined by a bullish trending move


followed by a series of lower highs and lower lows, that form parallel
trendlines containing price.  The descending channel pattern is defined by a
bearish trending move followed by a series of higher lows and higher highs,
that form parallel trendlines that contain price.

This pattern is complete when price breaks through the upper trendline in an
ascending channel or below the lower trendline in a descending channel
pattern.  The pattern is considered successful when price has achieved a
movement from the outer edge of the pattern equal to the distance of the
initial trending move that started the channel pattern.
4A. Double Top Pattern (75.01%)
4B. Double Bottom Pattern (78.55%)

The double top/bottom is one of the most common reversal price


patterns.  The double top is defined by two nearly equal highs with some
space between the touches, while a double bottom is created from two
nearly equal lows.  Generally, the wider the gap between touches the more
powerful the pattern becomes.
The pattern is complete when price breaks below the swing low point created
after the first high in a double top, or when price breaks above the swing
high point created by the first low in a double bottom.  The pattern is
considered a success when price covers the same distance following the
breakout as the distance from the double high to the recent swing low point
in a double top, or the distance from the double low to the recent swing high
in a double bottom (see red arrows).

This is actually the first of our patterns with a statistically significant


difference between the bullish (double bottom) and bearish (double top)
version.  As we can see, the double bottom is a slightly more effective
breakout pattern than the double top, reaching its target 78.55% of the time
compared to 75.01%.
3A. Triple Top Pattern (77.59%)
3B. Triple Bottom Pattern (79.33%)

The triple top/bottom is another variation of reversal price patterns.  The


triple top is defined by three nearly equal highs with some space between
the touches, while a triple bottom is created from three nearly equal lows.
Generally, the wider the gap between touches the more powerful the pattern
becomes.
The pattern is complete when price breaks below the swing low points
created between the highs in a triple top, or when price breaks above the
swing high points created between the lows in a triple bottom.  The pattern
is considered a success when price covers the same distance after the
breakout as the distance from the triple high to the furthest swing low point
in a triple top, or the distance from the triple low to furthest swing high in a
triple bottom (see red arrows).
2A.  Bullish Rectangle Pattern (78.23%)
2B. Bearish Rectangle Pattern (79.51%)

The rectangle price pattern is a continuation pattern that follows a


trending move.  It is very similar to the channel pattern, except that the
pattern does not have a slope against the preceding trend which gives it a
higher chance of successful continuation.
The rectangle pattern is defined by a strong trending move followed by two
or more nearly equal tops and bottoms that create two parallel horizontal
trendlines (support and resistance).  The only difference between the bullish
and bearish variations is that the bullish rectangle pattern starts after a
bullish trending move, and the bearish rectangle pattern starts after a
bearish trending move.

It's worth noting that these rectangle price patterns are essentially failed
double and triple tops/bottoms.  Because the swing points following the
double and triple highs or lows don't break to confirm the patterns, those
reversals are not confirmed.  This is why it can be very dangerous to try to
anticipate 
1A.  Head and Shoulders Pattern (83.04%)
1B. Inverted Head and Shoulders Pattern (83.44%)

The head and shoulders patterns are statistically the most accurate of the
price action patterns, reaching their projected target almost 85% of the time.
The regular head and shoulders pattern is defined by two swing highs (the
shoulders) with a higher high (the head) between them.  The inverted head
and shoulders pattern has two swing lows with a lower low between them.
The two outer swing highs/lows don't have to be at the same price, but the
closer they are to the same area the stronger the pattern generally
becomes.

The pattern is complete when price breaks through the "neckline" created by
the two swing low points in a head and shoulders, and the two swing high
points in an inverted head and shoulders.  In the chart examples above this
line is horizontal, but it can also be sloped as the swing points do not have to
be exactly the same to have a completed pattern.  These patterns are
considered complete when price breaks out from the neckline and moves a
distance equal to the distance from the neckline to the head of the pattern.
Dishonorable Mention:  Bullish Pennant Pattern (54.87%) and
Bearish Pennant Pattern (55.19%)

Although we've already covered the seven best price action patterns, I
thought it would be useful to include one more pattern because of it's
comparatively poor performance despite being commonly used.  The
pennant pattern is one that you often see right next to the bull and bear flag
pattern in the textbooks, but rarely does anyone talk about its low success
rate.  While the flag itself isn't an exceptional pattern at just under a 70%
success rate, the pennants come in well below that.

Like the flag, the pennant often occurs in high momentum markets after a
strong trending move, but the tight price formation that occurs can lead to
breakouts against the preceding trend almost as often as we get
continuation.  The slight difference in the price pattern formation between
flags and pennants is an important distinction that can make a big difference
in your trading results so it's well worth being aware of while watching the
market develop during your trading day.

Flags
Flag patterns are a continuation pattern and my personal favourite. Reason being, if price is forming
regular neat flag patterns and you are trading that instrument, then you are likely seeing good
returns to your account. theoretically each flag offers an opportunity to compound. A flag pattern
forms when price takes a short breather before breaking out and continuing the trend. A flag should
be between 2 and 11 bars. If it’s more then price is entering the realms of a consolidation or deeper
pullback. A confirmation of a flag pattern in an uptrend takes place when price breaks and closes
above the pivot high before price took a breather. Of course the reverse is true of a downtrend. The
textbooks will say that the breather should form the shape of a flag and the breakout bar (flagpole)
should engulf the entire move. In the real world that doesn’t happen often as the chart below shows.
123 Top/Bottom
123 tops and bottoms are another excellent pattern to know. They can be used as a continuation or
reversal signal. In an uptrend they form when price forms a pivot low (point 1), followed by a pivot
high (point 2), followed by another pivot low (point 3) that is slightly higher than point 1. The pattern
is confirmed when price breaks and closes above point 2. 123s often give an indication that a fast,
steep trend is about to emerge or continue. Therefore the identification of a confirmed 123 in your
analysis can determine which entry type to use. A breakout entry would be most suitable for a fast
steep trend.

Fibonacci
A Fibonacci retracement tool can be used to specify where point 3 should come in relation to point 1
when identifying a 123. Point 3 should come to between a 78.6% and 94.1% retracement of point 1
for it to be classed as a 123. More than 94.1% and less than 100% is in the realms of double bottom.
I know these are the less common Fibonacci levels used in the world of trading, but they are far
more effective when it comes to 123 chart patterns. Digressing slightly, these Fibonacci levels do
come from the more commonly used levels. (Square root of 38.2 is 61.8, square root of 61.8 is 78.6,
square root of 78.6 is 88.6 and square root of 88.6 is 94.1).

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