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13% Success)
7B. Bear Flag Pattern (67.72% Success)
The flag pattern appears as a small rectangle that is usually tilted against
the prevailing trend in price. The best flag patterns have two features: 1) a
very strong run in price (near vertical) prior to the setting up of the flag and
2) a tight flag that occurs right on the upper (or lower) edge of that run. The
higher and tighter (narrower) the pattern, the higher percentage that the
pattern will break favourably in the prevailing trend direction.
This pattern is complete when price breaks through the upper trendline in an
ascending channel or below the lower trendline in a descending channel
pattern. The pattern is considered successful when price has achieved a
movement from the outer edge of the pattern equal to the distance of the
initial trending move that started the channel pattern.
4A. Double Top Pattern (75.01%)
4B. Double Bottom Pattern (78.55%)
It's worth noting that these rectangle price patterns are essentially failed
double and triple tops/bottoms. Because the swing points following the
double and triple highs or lows don't break to confirm the patterns, those
reversals are not confirmed. This is why it can be very dangerous to try to
anticipate
1A. Head and Shoulders Pattern (83.04%)
1B. Inverted Head and Shoulders Pattern (83.44%)
The head and shoulders patterns are statistically the most accurate of the
price action patterns, reaching their projected target almost 85% of the time.
The regular head and shoulders pattern is defined by two swing highs (the
shoulders) with a higher high (the head) between them. The inverted head
and shoulders pattern has two swing lows with a lower low between them.
The two outer swing highs/lows don't have to be at the same price, but the
closer they are to the same area the stronger the pattern generally
becomes.
The pattern is complete when price breaks through the "neckline" created by
the two swing low points in a head and shoulders, and the two swing high
points in an inverted head and shoulders. In the chart examples above this
line is horizontal, but it can also be sloped as the swing points do not have to
be exactly the same to have a completed pattern. These patterns are
considered complete when price breaks out from the neckline and moves a
distance equal to the distance from the neckline to the head of the pattern.
Dishonorable Mention: Bullish Pennant Pattern (54.87%) and
Bearish Pennant Pattern (55.19%)
Although we've already covered the seven best price action patterns, I
thought it would be useful to include one more pattern because of it's
comparatively poor performance despite being commonly used. The
pennant pattern is one that you often see right next to the bull and bear flag
pattern in the textbooks, but rarely does anyone talk about its low success
rate. While the flag itself isn't an exceptional pattern at just under a 70%
success rate, the pennants come in well below that.
Like the flag, the pennant often occurs in high momentum markets after a
strong trending move, but the tight price formation that occurs can lead to
breakouts against the preceding trend almost as often as we get
continuation. The slight difference in the price pattern formation between
flags and pennants is an important distinction that can make a big difference
in your trading results so it's well worth being aware of while watching the
market develop during your trading day.
Flags
Flag patterns are a continuation pattern and my personal favourite. Reason being, if price is forming
regular neat flag patterns and you are trading that instrument, then you are likely seeing good
returns to your account. theoretically each flag offers an opportunity to compound. A flag pattern
forms when price takes a short breather before breaking out and continuing the trend. A flag should
be between 2 and 11 bars. If it’s more then price is entering the realms of a consolidation or deeper
pullback. A confirmation of a flag pattern in an uptrend takes place when price breaks and closes
above the pivot high before price took a breather. Of course the reverse is true of a downtrend. The
textbooks will say that the breather should form the shape of a flag and the breakout bar (flagpole)
should engulf the entire move. In the real world that doesn’t happen often as the chart below shows.
123 Top/Bottom
123 tops and bottoms are another excellent pattern to know. They can be used as a continuation or
reversal signal. In an uptrend they form when price forms a pivot low (point 1), followed by a pivot
high (point 2), followed by another pivot low (point 3) that is slightly higher than point 1. The pattern
is confirmed when price breaks and closes above point 2. 123s often give an indication that a fast,
steep trend is about to emerge or continue. Therefore the identification of a confirmed 123 in your
analysis can determine which entry type to use. A breakout entry would be most suitable for a fast
steep trend.
Fibonacci
A Fibonacci retracement tool can be used to specify where point 3 should come in relation to point 1
when identifying a 123. Point 3 should come to between a 78.6% and 94.1% retracement of point 1
for it to be classed as a 123. More than 94.1% and less than 100% is in the realms of double bottom.
I know these are the less common Fibonacci levels used in the world of trading, but they are far
more effective when it comes to 123 chart patterns. Digressing slightly, these Fibonacci levels do
come from the more commonly used levels. (Square root of 38.2 is 61.8, square root of 61.8 is 78.6,
square root of 78.6 is 88.6 and square root of 88.6 is 94.1).