Solar PV Manufacturing Scenario in India

PV Manufacturing Summit India 2012

2nd August’12

Dr. J. N. Roy
Senior Vice President
Solar Semiconductor
1
 Outline
 Solar Value Chain
 Company Overview
 Overall Energy Scenario and Solar PV
 Evolution of Solar PV
 India and Global Solar Market
 Manufacturing Viability
 Manufacturing Challenges
 Present Indian Scenario
 Solar PV – Value Chain
Solar Semiconductor in the
value chain

PV Systems

Silicon
MG Silicon Poly Silicon PV Cells PV Modules
Wafers

Thin Film

3
 Company Overview
A Vertically Integrated System Integrator providing end to end SI services
Our Product & Services Overview
 Global Company founded in 2006
Family of
mono and Incorporation  Headquartered in California, USA
multi  Subsidiaries in Canada, India, Luxemburg & Dubai
crystalline
modules
 Strong customer base in the key solar markets of
Blue Chip High Growth Markets
Customers &
 Strategic tie-ups with leading suppliers
Suppliers
Solar cells  Cumulative Shipments : over. 200MW

 Strong Systems Business Focus

Systems Business
System – Both On-Grid and Off-Grid Solutions
Integration
& Design  Large Manufacturing Facility in Hyderabad, India
– About 200 MW of PV Manufacturing Capacity
Manufacturing
– 200,000 sq.ft manufacturing space in 50acre
campus

Power  Experienced Team with a strong background in

Systems high quality, hi-tech, mass manufacturing of
Team semiconductor and systems industry
 900 full-time employees as of June 2011
 TOTAL WORLD ELECTRICITY GENERATION
‘07 ‘08
‘06
‘05
‘04 294,150
‘03
‘02
‘01 GWh
32,855
From solar and wind GWH

‘00 ‘09

From all sources

WIND
&
SOLAR

NUCLEAR
2.6 million NUCLEAR
GWh 2.7 million
TOTAL GWh TOTAL
15.5 20.1
Million Million
GWh GWh
HYDROPOWER
2.7 million
GWh HYDROPOWER
3.3 million
GWh

International Energy Agency (IEA) made data available upto 2009

 TOTAL COAL CONSUMPTION
(billions of tons)
5.2
5

1.1
1
1.0

0.4
0.2
0.05
0
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10

Central and South America Africa Former U.S.S.R Europe North America Asia and Oceania
 CO2 EMISSIONS
(from electricity and heat production)

11.8 million metric tons

'09

9.1 million
metric tons

'00
 Evolution of Solar PV
 Pre 2000:
— Solar PV technology was developed in 50’s.
— Not much progress during this period and mainly used in niche
applications such as Space

 Post 2000:
— Incentive scheme started in Japan and Germany and then followed by
some other countries.
— Global warming and energy security issues became important
— Accelerated growth occurred
— Shortage of supply, mainly polysilicon, leading to exorbitant price of
polysilicon
— Thin film technology was introduced.
— Many new poly silicon plant installed.

Company Proprietary
 Evolution of Solar PV
 Post 2008:
— Economic crisis coupled with oversupply and advancement in all areas
lead to drastic fall in prices.
— Cost reduction through new Technology became major thrust in the
entire value chain.
— Thin film technology became less attractive
 Present:
— Continuous drive toward cost reduction through improvement in
technology, more efficient manufacturing and supply chain.
— Oversupply
— Price Pressure
 Future:
— Consolidation
— Continuous thrust in Technology Development
— Grid Parity and exponential growth

Company Proprietary
 Solar Market in India

68.0
30 Solar Market - India 70

Cumulative Solar Market (GW)

Solar Potential In GW
25 60
Annual Solar Market (GW)

44.8
2012-17 ~9.8 Annual Solar Market - India (GW) 50
20
Cumulative Solar Capacity - India (GW) 40
29.2
15 2017-22 ~57.3
23.2 30
10 17.6
15.6 20
10.4 13.1
5 7.7 11.6
5.2 10
0.7 1.7 3.2 2.5 4.5
1.0 1.5 2.0 2.7 2.7
0 0
2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22

• JNNSM Target is 20GW by 2022. The actual may be much larger.

• Some forecast says 36% of the 56 GW market (from 2017-18) to come from utility-scale solar potential
• Solar rooftops and solar-powered agriculture pump-sets may require larger government interventions to have
significant installation base
 Manufacturing Viability

Productivity:
Policy Support Technology
Throughput/uptime/yield/
Efficiency/BOM/Quality/Reliability
Expertise/Degree of automation

60 5

50

average module price (€/Wp)

installed PV modules (GW)

40
3
30
2
20
thin film share (GW)
c-Si share (GW) 1
10 average module price (€/Wp)

0 0

Supply Chain:
Reduction of Material cost Economy of Scale
Domestic Avaialbility
NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC
 Global PV Manufacturing
C- Silicon
60
China: China: 54.0
16 GW 20 GW
52.3

50 India: 47.3
0.6 India:
GW 1.2 GW 41.5
40.0
40 36.7
Capacity (GW)

32.9

30 28.2

20

10

0
2010 2011
PolySilicon Wafer Cell Module
 Global Inverters manufacturing

Inverter Production Capacity vs. Solar PV Installed Capacity

SMA-35%
45 SMA-40% Market
Market Share(E)
40 Share

35 SMA-40%
Market
30 Share

25

20

15

10

0
2009 2010 2011

Invertor capacity(GW) Installations(GW)

 Other Materials

 Cell manufacturing:
Chemical and Gases
Metal Paste
 Module Manufacturing:
EVA & Backsheet
Glass
Copper Interconnect
Metal Frame
Junction Box
Adhesive
 Other BOS Components:
Cables, JB, MJBs, …….
 Policy support for Manufacturing
Chinese Advantage
• Low interest loans (4.8% in Jan 2011)
• No principal or interest payments for
first 5 years
Ontario, Canada Italy • Scale of loans much higher (over 60% of
- Local content - 10% higher FiT CAPEX funded)
requirement for made in EU • Local content mandated for
manufacturing

USA
-Sunshot Initiative
-- DOE loans
India
- Local content requirement under
JNNSM
-Incentives under Rajasthan policy
- Duty exemptions
 Manufacturing Challenges: Standardization
 Standardization is broadly focus on:
 SEMI Standardization Programs
 Quality/Reliability Standards: IEC & UL
 Worldwide trends is to focus on the later more than the former
 In India it is entirely focused on Quality/Reliability Standards and Certification due to
current needs
 Standards can be evolved in:
 various physical dimensions such as Module size (Glass, EVA, Backsheet, …..)
and leverage cost reduction
 Vibration Testing Standards for Modules to Reduce Damage During
Transportation
 There may be many others like this. Any perspective on this kind of Standardization
initiative that might help Standardizing Manufacturing (and hence the cost reduction)
would lead to a good start point for some SEMI activity in this region.
 Manufacturing Challenges:
Quality/Reliability Global Standards
 International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) :
 IEC 61730 – I : Photovoltaic module safety qualification – Requirements
for Construction
 IEC 61730 – II : Photovoltaic module safety qualification – Requirements
for testing
 IEC 61215 : Crystalline Silicon terrestrial photovoltaic modules – Design
qualification and type approval
 IEC 61646 : Thin-film terrestrial photovoltaic modules – Design
qualification and type approval
 Underwriters Laboratory (UL), USA
 UL 1703 : Flat-Plate Photovoltaic Modules and Panels
Internal/Customer Specific
 Manufacturing Challenges: Retest Guidelines
 Any Changes in material, components and manufacturing process requires Re-
Certification through time consuming re-test guide lines.
— Change in cell technology -> Repeat:
— Thermal cycle; Damp Heat; Outdoor exposure; Hot spot
— Modification to encapsulation system -> Repeat:
— UV, TC-50 & HF sequence tests; Damp Heat; Wet leakage; Outdoor exposure
Hail impact, Hot spot
— Modification to superstrate -> Repeat:
— UV, TC-50 & HF sequence tests; Damp Heat; Wet leakage; Outdoor exposure
Hail impact; Hot spot; Mechanical load test
— Increase in module size by more than 20% -> Repeat:
— Thermal cycle; Mechanical load test; Hail impact test
— Modification to backsheet/substrate -> Repeat:
— UV, TC-50 & HF sequence tests; Damp Heat; Wet leakage; Hail impact;
Mechanical load test; Robustness of termination
 Manufacturing Challenges: Case Study
 Reliability of Raw materials : Component failure during testing may result in the
complete failure of the project.
 Cell Failure: One of the FA picture depicts the bubbles due to faulty paste in the
cells used. Half the module with one type of cell (defective paste) is showing
bubbles on the backsheet, the other half with good cells.
 Loss of time. Other BOM also affected.
 Detail FA require.
 Vendor may not take any
responsibility.
 Manufacturing Challenges: Case Study
 Reliability of Raw materials (Example-2) : Component failure during testing may result
in the complete failure of the project.
 Junction Box Failure: Observe the barrel crack and charring of inner surface after
reliability testing
 The JB is separately certified. It may be statistical as well and the internal test
may not detect this.
 Present Indian Scenario: Summary
 No Problem with Opportunity: Export, Domestic (JNNSM, Gujarat, Rajasthan,
Karnataka, …..). Huge market expected after grid parity is achieved. Limited grid
parity is already achieved!

 Global PV manufacturing Vs India

o Poly : Negligible
o Crystalline Silicon PV cells/Modules– Some presence but scale is much lower.
o Thin Films - Negligible
o PV Manufacturing Equipment & Materials– Negligible
o Inverters – Negligible
o Others – Negligible

 Challenges
o Market & Business model
o Focus on Technology/R&D
o Operational and SCM (Scaling!)
o Financial – Huge capex outlays, High cost of financing

 Policy support
o More Support needed
THANK YOU