Hypothesis Testing: Dr. Indra, S.Si, M.Si

Hypothesis Testing
Dr. Indra, S.Si, M.Si

INTRODUCTION
• Hypothesis: Temporary conclusions or logical
assumptions about the state of the population.
• Because it is only a temporary guess, the
hypothesis may be correct, but it may also be
incorrect.
• Hypothesis testing can be used to determine

whether a statement about the value of a
population parameter should or should not be
rejected.
INTRODUCTION
• The conclusion of statistical hypothesis
testing is only accepting or rejecting the
hypothesis, and it does not prove the validity
of the hypothesis.
• Acceptance of the hypothesis occurs

because it is not enough evidence to reject
the hypothesis and not because the
hypothesis is true.
INTRODUCTION
• The null hypothesis, denoted by H0 , is a
tentative assumption about a population
parameter.
• The alternative hypothesis, denoted by H1, is
the opposite of what is stated in the null
hypothesis.
• The hypothesis testing procedure uses data
from a sample to test the two competing
statements indicated by H0 and H1.
Possible Situations for Testing a
Statistical Hypothesis
Type I Error
◼ Because hypothesis tests are based on sample data,
we must allow for the possibility of errors.
 A Type I error is rejecting H0 when it is true.
 The probability of making a Type I error when the

null hypothesis is true as an equality is called the
level of significance.
 Applications of hypothesis testing that only control

the Type I error are often called significance tests.
Type II Error
 A Type II error is accepting H0 when it is false.
 It is difficult to control for the probability of making

a Type II error.
 Statisticians avoid the risk of making a Type II

error by using “do not reject H0” and not “accept H0”.
Illustration of Type I & II Error
Hypothesis Testing
• Example: Suppose a company uses intermediate input "PCB".
The company makes an agreement with its supplier that the
item will be accepted if the quality of the PCB is below
standard not more than 6 percent.
• At one time, samples were taken from the product sent by one
of the partner companies as many as 50 units. Then it was
found that 8 percent of 50 PCBs (4 units) had poor quality →
contracts were stopped because they exceeded the set limits.
• In fact, as many as 4 PCB units encountered were damaged, the
total PCB was damaged among 4000 units sent → 4/4000 =
0.001 → << 6% → Type 1 error.
• Suppose that it was found that of the 50 PCB units
tested, there were 2 units that were damaged → 2/50 =
4% → << 6% → the contract continued.
• However, in fact 48 PCB units with good quality among the 50
tested were the total PCB units that were not damaged, the rest
were damaged → Type 2 error.
The Procedure of Hypothesis
Testing
• State the null hyphothesis: H 0 :  =  0
• State the alternative hyphothesis:H 1 :    0
H 1 :    0 atau H 1 :    0
• Set the significant level (type I error): α
• Choose an approriate tes statistic and establish
the critical region based on α → Construct
Acceptance / Rejection regions
• Collect sampel data and compute a test ststistic
• Conclusion: Reject H0 if the computed test statistic
is in the critical region. Otherwise, do not reject →
9
draw scientific conclusions
Hypothesis Testing of Population Mean
The null
hypothesi
s ussually
contains
equality
The
alternative
Hyphotesis:
Three
possibilitie
s regarding
means
Example 1:
• The US population statistics bureau claims that the average of life span in
Oklahoma City is more than 70 years old. If a random sample of 100 recorded
deaths showed an average life span of 71.8 years with a standard deviation of
8.9 years. Test the bureau claim with a 5% significance level.
• Solution:
1. H0 : µ = 70 years
2. H1 : µ > 70 years
3. α = 0.05
4. Critical region: z>1.645
5. Test statistic from sampel:
71.8 − 70
z= = 2.02
8.9
100
6. Conclusion:
Reject H0 and conclude that the mean life span today is greater
than 70 years.
Example 2:
Example 3:
• The Edison Electric Institute has published figures on the number of kilowatt hours
used annually by various home appliances. It is claimed that a vacuum cleaner
uses an average, less than from 46 kilowatt hours per year. If a random sample of
12 homes included in a planned study indicates that vacuum cleaners use an
average of 42 kilowatt hours per year with a standard deviation of 11.9 kilowatt
hours, does this suggest at the 0.05 level of significance that vacuum cleaners use,
on average, less than 46 kilowatt hours annually? Assume the population of
kilowatt hours to be normal.
• Solution:
Example 4:
• The Anderson=s Super Dollar had two grocery stores in Erie,
Pennsylvania. The mean time customers wait in the checkout line at
the Byrne Road store is 3.7 minute with a standard deviation of .8
minutes, for a sample of 40 customers. The mean waiting time for the
I-90 store is 3.5 minutes with a standard deviation of .7 minutes for a
sample of 45 customers. At the .05 significance level can we
conclude there is a difference in the waiting time for the two stores?
• Solution:
H 0 :  B =  90
H 1 :  B   90
Reject H 0 if z  −1.96 or z  1.96.
3.7 - 3.5
z= = 1.22
2 2
.8 .7
+
40 45
Do not reject H 0 . We cannot conlude there is a difference in the mean
waiting time for the two stores.
Example 5:
Example 5: Solution
Hypothesis Testing of Population
Proportion
Example 6:
• The Appliance Center reports on it TV commercials that “more than
70 percent of our customers have purchased an appliance with us
before.” The president of the company hired a marketing research
firm to independently validate this claim. In a sample of 200 recent
buyers, 160 reported that they had, in fact, purchased and an
appliance from the Appliance Center before. At the .01 significance
level, is the claim of the commercial correct?
• Solution:
H 0 :   .70
H1 :   .70
Reject H 0 if z  2.33.
160
− .70
z= 200 = 3.09
(.70)(1 − .70)
200
Reject H 0 . It is reasonable that more than 70 percent of the customers are repeat buyers.
Example 7:
• A vote is to be taken among the residents of a town and the surrounding county to
determine whether a proposed chemical plant should be constructed. The construction
site is within the town limits, and for this reason many voters in the county believe that
the proposal will pass because of the large proportion of town voters who favor the
construction. To determine if there is a significant difference in the proportions of town
voters and county voters favoring the proposal, a poll is taken. If 120 of 200 town voters
favor the proposal and 240 of 500 county residents favor it, would you agree that the
proportion of town voters favoring the proposal is higher than the proportion of county
voters? Use an α = 0.05 level of significance.
• Solution:
Assignment No.1
• The Exchange Bank wishes to determine the
mean balance on mortgages it holds. A sample of
36 mortgages showed the mean balance to be
$86,000 with a sample standard deviation of
$12,000. Would it be reasonable to conclude that
the population mean is less than $90,000? Use
the .05 significance level.
• Test the hypothesis that the average content
of containers of a particular lubricant is 10 liters if
the contents of a random sample of 10 containers
are 10.2, 9.7, 10.1, 10.3, 10.1, 9.8, 9.9, 10.4, 10.3,
and 9.8 liters. Use a 0.01 level of significance and
assume that the distribution of contents is normal
Assignment No.2
• A marketing expert for a pasta-making company
believes that 40% of pasta lovers prefer lasagna. If
9 out of 20 pasta lovers choose lasagna over other
pastas, what can be concluded about the expert’s
claim? Use a 0.05 level of significance.
• In a study to estimate the proportion of residents in
a certain city and its suburbs who favor the
construction of a nuclear power plant, it is found
that 63 of 100 urban residents favor the
construction while only 59 of 125 suburban
residents are in favor. Is there a significant
difference between the proportions of urban and
suburban residents who favor construction of the
nuclear plant? Use a 0.05 level of significance.

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What is the difference between a null hypothesis and an alternative hypothesis?

What are the two types of errors that can occur in hypothesis testing?

Hypothesis Testing

Dr. Indra, S.Si, M.Si

• Hypothesis testing can be used to determine

• Acceptance of the hypothesis occurs

 A Type I error is rejecting H0 when it is true.

 The probability of making a Type I error when the

 Applications of hypothesis testing that only control

 A Type II error is accepting H0 when it is false.

 It is difficult to control for the probability of making

 Statisticians avoid the risk of making a Type II

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